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Assessing tariff pass-through to consumer prices in Canada: Lessons from 2018, staff analytical note 2025-18

Bank of Canada · 2025-06-20

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        <span class="pressdate">August 13, 2026</span>
    <a id="post-title-255202" href="https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2026/08/cimpa-and-cds-announce-the-start-of-the-trial-period-for-the-fail-fee-framework-for-government-of-canada-securities-transactions/" >CIMPA and CDS announce the start of the trial period for the fail fee framework for Government of Canada securities transactions</a>
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        <span class="pressdate">August 12, 2026</span>
    <a id="post-title-255193" href="https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2026/08/new-goc-general-collateral-basket-strengthens-canadas-repo-market/" >New GoC General Collateral Basket Strengthens Canada’s Repo Market</a>
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                <li class="mtt-result--excerpt__list-with-dates mtt-result--excerpt mtt-result">
        <span class="pressdate">August 11, 2026</span>
    <a id="post-title-255174" href="https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2026/08/cfec-releases-results-of-april-2026-foreign-exchange-volume-survey/" >CFEC Releases Results of April  2026 Foreign Exchange Volume Survey</a>
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                        <p>Feel, look, tilt and flip! Learn how to check your bank notes and protect yourself from fraud.
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            The Vertical $20
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                        <p>Discover the design elements of the upcoming vertical $20 polymer bank note featuring His Majesty King Charles III.</p>
                
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    <a aria-label="Monetary Policy Report—July 2026" title="Monetary Policy Report—July 2026" href="https://www.bankofcanada.ca/publications/mpr/mpr-2026-07-15/" data-content-type='Monetary Policy Report' class="post-callout-link">
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            Monetary Policy Report—July 2026
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                        <p>Canada’s economy has been weak but is showing signs of improvement. Growth is expected to pick up, and inflation is projected to ease to around 2%. Uncertainty remains elevated.</p>
                
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                        <p>Canada’s financial system has functioned well through a challenging year. Households and businesses remain in stable financial condition, and banks have strengthened their capacity to absorb shocks. However, vulnerabilities have increased in some parts of the system, and a more turbulent global environment poses risks to financial stability.</p>
                
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    <a aria-label="Canadian businesses’ use of AI: What the evidence shows" title="Canadian businesses’ use of AI: What the evidence shows" href="https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2026/08/sparks-at-bank-article-2026-20/" data-content-type='Sparks at Bank article' class="post-callout-link">
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            Canadian businesses’ use of AI: What the evidence shows
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                        <p>As businesses worldwide are adopting artificial intelligence to boost productivity, little has been known about how businesses in Canada are using it. Survey results from the Bank of Canada show that AI adoption remains at an early stage for many Canadian businesses. As well, businesses expect AI to affect capital spending and employment, but only gradually. </p>
                
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        <span class="pressdate">September 3, 2026</span>
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        <span class="pressdate">September 2, 2026</span>
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        <a href="https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2026/09/fad-press-release-2026-09-02/" >Bank of Canada maintains the policy rate at 2¼%</a>
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        <span class="pressdate">September 2, 2026</span>
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        <a href="https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2026/09/opening-statement-2026-09-02/" >Monetary Policy Decision Press Conference Opening Statement</a>
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        <span class="pressdate">August 19, 2026</span>
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        <a href="https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2026/08/canada-border-services-agency-and-royal-canadian-mounted-police-win-bank-canada-counterfeit-deterrence-award-2/" >Bank of Canada recognizes RCMP constable with award for counterfeit deterrence</a>
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            Press Conference: Policy Rate Announcement — September 2026
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                        <p><p><em>Interest Rate Announcement</em> – Press conference by Governor Tiff Macklem and Senior Deputy Governor Carolyn Rogers (10:30 (ET) approx.).</p></p>
                
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                        <p>These forecasts are provided to Governing Council in preparation for monetary policy decisions. They are released once a year with a five-year lag.</p>
                
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                        <p>Search the list of registered payment services providers. </p>
                
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        <span class="pressdate">June 29, 2026</span>
    <a id="post-title-254596" href="https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2026/06/reminder-psp-reporting-obligations-under-rpaa/" >Reminder: PSP reporting obligations under the RPAA</a>
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        <span class="pressdate">June 12, 2026</span>
    <a id="post-title-254121" href="https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2026/06/bank-canada-begin-publishing-notices-violation-payment-service-providers/" >Bank of Canada to begin publishing Notices of Violation by Payment Service Providers</a>
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        <span class="pressdate">February 27, 2026</span>
    <a id="post-title-251788" href="https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2026/02/bank-of-canada-issues-revised-compliance-order-to-xtm-inc/" >Bank of Canada issues revised compliance order to XTM Inc.</a>
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            <h1 class="post-heading">Assessing tariff pass-through to consumer prices in Canada: Lessons from 2018</h1>
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                <div class="post-type">Staff analytical note 2025-18
                        (<span class='post-language'>English</span>)
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                <div class="post-authors">
                            <a href="https://www.bankofcanada.ca/profile/alexander-lam/"  >Alexander Lam</a>
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                <div class='post-date'>June 2025</div>
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                Data available as:  <a href='https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/observations/group/SAN_LAMA20250603/csv' class='ga-event' data-ga-category='Valet' data-ga-action='download_csv' data-ga-label='observations/group/SAN_LAMA20250603/csv'>CSV</a>, <a href='https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/observations/group/SAN_LAMA20250603/json' class='ga-event' data-ga-category='Valet' data-ga-action='download_json' data-ga-label='observations/group/SAN_LAMA20250603/json'>JSON</a> and <a href='https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/observations/group/SAN_LAMA20250603/xml' class='ga-event' data-ga-category='Valet' data-ga-action='download_xml' data-ga-label='observations/group/SAN_LAMA20250603/xml'>XML</a>
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				<div class="cfct-mod-content"><h2>Introduction</h2>
<p>In response to recent tariffs imposed on Canada by the United States, the Canadian government has introduced counter-tariffs on certain goods imported from the United States.<a href='#footnote-1' id='footnote-ref-1' title='See “Canada’s response to U.S. tariffs on Canadian goods” on the Department of Finance Canada’s website for a full list of counter-tariffs as of April 3, 2025.' aria-labelledby='footnote-label-1' class='footnote-ref'>1</a> A key issue for inflation is the need to understand how these counter-tariffs may impact final consumer prices.</p>
<p>Pinning down the precise timing and magnitude of any tariff pass-through to consumer prices is difficult. This is because:</p>
<ul>
<li>the tariff may be absorbed—in part or entirely—by the importer</li>
<li>historical precedent is limited</li>
<li>the aggregate consumer price index (CPI) typically used to study consumer prices is not well suited to isolating the impact of tariffs from other economic drivers</li>
</ul>
<p>To help fill this knowledge gap, we examine a previous tariff episode and use detailed consumer price microdata. In May 2018, the United States imposed tariffs on Canadian steel and aluminum. In response, in July 2018, Canada imposed counter-tariffs on US steel, aluminum and some final goods.<a href='#footnote-2' id='footnote-ref-2' title='See “Updated – Countermeasures in Response to Unjustified Tariffs on Canadian Steel and Aluminum Products” on the Department of Finance Canada’s website for a full list of the counter-tariffs in 2018.' aria-labelledby='footnote-label-1' class='footnote-ref'>2</a> The list of tariffed items was wide-ranging—from grocery products and household items to major appliances—but comprised less than 1% of the overall CPI basket. The tariff rate on steel was 25% and the rate on aluminum and final goods was 10%. This trade dispute lasted just less than a year. In May 2019, the United States lifted its tariffs, and Canada lifted its counter-tariffs in turn.</p>
<p>Using the synthetic control method (SCM), we find that Canada’s 2018 counter-tariffs resulted in, on average, high but incomplete pass-through of tariffs to consumer goods prices. That said, the magnitude and speed of the price increases varied considerably across tariffed consumer goods.  </p>
<p>Insights from this analysis helped inform the Bank of Canada’s projection scenarios in the April 2025 <em>Monetary Policy Report.</em> These scenarios assume that 75% of the increased costs from tariffs is passed on to consumer prices within six quarters. While many factors are different now compared with 2018—including the scope and magnitude of tariffs—our methodology nonetheless provides a useful anchor for evaluating the impact of tariffs on consumer prices. Going forward, this methodology will be leveraged to monitor the impact of new tariffs on consumer prices in real time.<a href='#footnote-3' id='footnote-ref-3' title='For examples of other work assessing the impact of current US tariffs on consumer prices, see Cavallo, Llamas and Vazquez&nbsp;(2025).' aria-labelledby='footnote-label-1' class='footnote-ref'>3</a></p>
<h2>Data and methodology</h2>
<p>We obtain our estimates of tariff pass-through in three steps:</p>
<ol>
<li>First, we use consumer price microdata to construct price indexes for tariffed and non-tariffed items.</li>
<li>We then use SCM to estimate the impact of tariffs on the prices of tariffed items.</li>
<li>Finally, to obtain estimates of tariff pass-through for each item, we scale these impacts by the 2018 10% tariff rate and by estimates of the share of Canadian final consumption goods that are directly imported from the United States.</li>
</ol>
<h3>Disaggregated price indexes of representative products</h3>
<p>We use consumer price microdata from Statistics Canada in our analysis. These data include prices and metadata for a sample of goods and services of unchanged quantity and quality used to construct the CPI.<a href='#footnote-4' id='footnote-ref-4' title='For more information on the consumer price microdata, see Bilyk, Khan and Kostyshyna&nbsp;(2024).' aria-labelledby='footnote-label-1' class='footnote-ref'>4</a> The data consist of around 100,000 product price quotes each month, beginning in February&nbsp;1998. For our analysis, we use a subset of the microdata that comprises only goods (excluding energy) for which monthly price data are available from January&nbsp;2010 to December&nbsp;2019.</p>
<p>In the consumer price microdata, we identify tariffed and non-tariffed goods during the 2018 trade war at the <em>representative product</em> (RP) level. To do this, we manually construct a mapping of tariffs (which are applied to imported goods using Harmonized System &#091;HS&#093; codes) to RPs in the CPI.</p>
<p>In the microdata, each RP contains from at least 10 to hundreds of monthly individual product price quotes, which we use to construct item price indexes. Our final dataset consists of price indexes for more than 300 RPs, of which 37 were tariffed. A list of these RPs is available in <a href="https://www.bankofcanada.ca/wp-content/uploads/2025/06/staff-analytical-note-2025-18-appendices.pdf#appendixa">Appendix&nbsp;A</a>.</p>
<h3>Estimating price impacts using the synthetic control method</h3>
<p>To estimate the impact of tariffs on prices, we use SCM—a data-driven approach commonly employed to evaluate the effects of major policy interventions over time.<a href='#footnote-5' id='footnote-ref-5' title='For more information on SCM, see Abadie&nbsp;(2021). For examples of notable studies using SCM, see Abadie and Gardeazabal&nbsp;(2003), Abadie, Diamond and Hainmueller&nbsp;(2010) and Abadie, Diamond and Hainmueller&nbsp;(2015).' aria-labelledby='footnote-label-1' class='footnote-ref'>5</a> In this context, the goal is to assess what would have happened to the prices of tariffed RPs had the tariffs not been applied.</p>
<p>Since this counterfactual cannot be directly observed, SCM constructs a “synthetic” version of each tariffed RP—a weighted combination of similar but non-tariffed RPs—such that their price trends closely match those of the tariffed RP in the pre-tariff period. If this synthetic control successfully mirrors the pre-tariff price path, then any post-tariff divergence between the actual and synthetic prices provides an estimate of the tariff's effect.</p>
<p>In practice, we determine the weights of the synthetic controls using least squares. We regress the log price of each tariffed RP on the log prices of its five most highly correlated non-tariffed RPs over a pre-tariff sample (January&nbsp;2010 to June&nbsp;2018).<a href='#footnote-6' id='footnote-ref-6' title='The choice of non-tariffed items used to create each tariffed item’s synthetic control is based purely on statistical correlation. For example, the synthetic control of the tariffed item “tomato ketchup” is constructed from “bananas,” “cooking or salad oil,” “corn flakes cereal,” “macaroni” and “margarine.”' aria-labelledby='footnote-label-1' class='footnote-ref'>6</a> We then use the estimated regression coefficients to generate a predicted synthetic counterfactual price path for each tariffed RP over the post-tariff period (July&nbsp;2018 to December&nbsp;2019).<a href='#footnote-7' id='footnote-ref-7' title='We restrict estimation coefficients to be greater than or equal to zero so that all our weights are non-negative. However, we do not restrict the coefficients to sum to one because the price paths of various items on either side of the regression equations may have different variances.' aria-labelledby='footnote-label-1' class='footnote-ref'>7</a></p>
<p>The impact of tariffs on prices is therefore the actual price minus the synthetic price:</p>
</div>
			</div>
			<div class="cfct-module cfct-widget-module-bochtml">
				<div class="cfct-mod-content"><p style="text-align: center;">
\(\displaystyle\,Price\,impact_{i,t}\)
\(\displaystyle=\,log(P_{actual\, i,t})\)
\(\displaystyle-\,log(P_{synthetic\, i,t})\)
</p> 

</div>
			</div>
			<div class="cfct-module cfct-widget-module-bochtml">
				<div class="cfct-mod-content"><p>for representative product \(i\) and time period \(t\).</p>
<p>Crucially, we are unable to identify the country of origin of specific products in the consumer price microdata; we know only their representative product name. Therefore, we cannot implement SCM to compare the price path of a product imported from the United States and subject to counter-tariffs with the price path of the same product imported from elsewhere. As an example, orange juice is an RP in the CPI data that was subject to counter-tariffs, but within this narrow category we cannot distinguish tariffed (i.e., made in the United States) versus non-tariffed (i.e., made elsewhere) orange juice. However, we can distinguish between orange juice and apple juice, another RP in the CPI data that was not subject to tariffs regardless of its country of origin. This means our estimated price impacts could include some indirect effects (e.g., demand substitution or opportunistic price increases on orange juice not made in the United States).</p>
<h3>Assessing tariff pass-through</h3>
<p>Finally, to convert our estimated price impacts for each RP into tariff pass-through, we need to scale the price impacts by the 10% tariff rate in 2018 and by the share of Canadian final consumption goods that are imported from the United States:</p>
</div>
			</div>
			<div class="cfct-module cfct-widget-module-bochtml">
				<div class="cfct-mod-content"><p style="text-align: center;">
\(\displaystyle\, Passthrough_{i,t}\)
\(\displaystyle=\, \frac{Price\,impact_{i,t}} {Tariff\,\,rate * (\frac{US\,imports} {Consumption})_{i,\,2017}}\)
\(\displaystyle\, .\)
</p>  
</div>
			</div>
			<div class="cfct-module cfct-widget-module-bochtml">
				<div class="cfct-mod-content"><p>Scaling by the US import share of consumption is necessary because our price impact estimates for RPs that are affected by tariffs include impacts for both US- and non-US-made individual products within those RPs.</p>
<p>Due to data limitations, measuring the US import share of consumption at the disaggregated level is an imprecise exercise that requires manual mapping of tariffed RPs between several different goods classification systems. We take the 2017 US import share of total imports (based on 6-digit HS codes) from Statistics Canada’s merchandise trade data and multiply it by the share of total supply in the Canadian economy that is directly imported from abroad (based on detailed North American Product Classification System [NAPCS] codes) from Statistics Canada’s 2017 input-output tables. We assume that the import share of total supply and the import share of consumption are equivalent.</p>
<p>When presenting aggregated results, we show a range of estimates of tariff pass-through. We do so because in some cases, issues with imperfect concordance between RPs, HS codes and NAPCS codes or potential confounding factors may be causing our pass-through estimates to be unreasonably large at the RP level. Our range of estimates is based on various treatments of outlier estimates (in addition to the unadjusted estimates). These treatments include removing tariffed RPs with outlier pass-through estimates and capping RP-level pass-through estimates at thresholds that we deem to be unrealistic (e.g., pass-through greater than 100% and greater than 200%).</p>
<h2>Results: Price impacts</h2>
<p>Estimated price impacts vary substantially at the RP level. That said, we can broadly categorize tariffed RPs as having experienced <em>temporary</em>, <em>persistent</em> or <em>no</em> price impacts. <a href="#chart1">Chart&nbsp;1</a> gives an example of each, showing the RPs’ actual and synthetic (counterfactual) price paths.</p>
</div>
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			<div class="cfct-module cfct-widget-module-bochtml no-page-break">
				<div class="cfct-mod-content"><h3 id="chart1" class="boc-toc-only">Chart 1: Illustrative examples of the impact of the 2018 tariffs on consumer prices, by representative product</h3>
<p class="bocss-chart4-faketitle">Chart 1: Illustrative examples of the impact of the 2018 tariffs on consumer prices, by representative product</p>
<p class="bocss-chart4-fakesubtitle">Actual and synthetic (counterfactual) prices; index: July 2017–June 2018 average = 1; vertical lines denote tariff period</p>
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<li>In around 30% of cases, we find that RP prices respond quickly but only <em>temporarily</em> to tariffs, and that price impacts reversed after the tariffs were lifted (as seen with plastic wrap in <a href="#chart1">Chart&nbsp;1</a>, panel&nbsp;a). These cases are most consistent with the economic theory that the imposition and removal of tariffs should each constitute one-time offsetting price shocks.</li>
<li>In around 40% of cases, we find a more <em>persistent</em> impact that does not fully reverse following the end of tariffs (as seen with facial tissues in <a href="#chart1b">Chart&nbsp;1</a>, panel&nbsp;b). These results point to the possible presence of downward price rigidities, though confounding factors that are difficult to control for could also be at play. Confounding factors are especially likely for specific RPs such as carbonated soft drinks, which were subject to direct tariffs as well as tariffs on aluminum on both sides of the border. Moreover, many countries from which Canada imports soft drinks imposed sugar taxes in the 2018–19 period.</li>
<li>In the remaining 30% of cases, we find <em>no significant</em> impact of tariffs on RP prices (as seen with pickles in <a href="#chart1c">Chart&nbsp;1</a>, panel&nbsp;c).</li>
</ul>
<p><a href="https://www.bankofcanada.ca/wp-content/uploads/2025/06/staff-analytical-note-2025-18-appendices.pdf#appendixb">Appendix&nbsp;B</a> presents the full set of charts showing the synthetic control estimates for each RP.</p>
<p>Aggregating the heterogeneous price impacts from the RP level up, we find that the 2018 tariffs increased prices of affected RPs (which, as detailed in the previous section, may include both tariffed and non-tariffed products within affected RPs) by an average of 2.5% within six quarters (<a href="#chart2">Chart&nbsp;2</a>).</p>
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				<div class="cfct-mod-content"><h3 id="chart2" class="boc-toc-only">Chart 2: Impact of tariffs on representative product prices </h3>
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<p>Based on the midpoint of the range of estimates discussed in the <a href="#Data-and-methodology">Data and methodology</a> section, average tariff pass-through in 2018 is estimated to be around 60% after six quarters across all tariffed RPs (<a href="#chart3">Chart&nbsp;3</a>).</p>
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<p class="bocss-chart4-fakesubtitle">Range and midpoint estimates per quarter</p>
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				<div class="cfct-mod-content"><p class="small">Note: Shaded areas represent the range of estimates; solid lines represent the estimated midpoints.</p>
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				<div class="cfct-mod-content"><p>Pass-through was slightly higher for food in stores (around 70%), slightly lower for durable goods (around 50%) and around 60% for semi- and non-durable goods. Pass-through for food items also appeared to spike slightly earlier than that for non-food items, though all categories saw peak pass-through within six quarters.</p>
<ul>
<li>The range of estimates for pass-through to food is large. This is because many RPs in this category had unusually high pass-through estimates and were therefore trimmed or adjusted as outliers when we constructed the range of estimates on aggregate. That said, higher tariff pass-through for food items is consistent with generally high turnover of product, low margins and low inventory in this category relative to other goods.</li>
<li>In contrast, there are fewer outlier pass-through estimates for items excluding food, and so the range of estimates for this category—and especially durable goods—is smaller.</li>
</ul>
<p>However, tariff pass-through may vary relative to the tariff rate. For example, some producers may have been able to absorb a 10% tariff rate without adjusting prices but would not be able to absorb the 25% tariff rate that is presently in effect on some goods.</p>
<p>Considering this potential nonlinearity, we also estimate average tariff pass-through to consumer prices for <em>only RPs that saw positive (i.e., greater than zero) and significant price impacts in 2018</em>. In other words, for this conditional pass-through, we remove from our average pass-through calculations RPs that saw no significant price impacts.<a href='#footnote-8' id='footnote-ref-8' title='It is also possible that the nonlinearity of tariff pass-through relative to the tariff rate may be in the opposite direction. For example, businesses might fully pass through a small tariff increase but not a larger one if they believe consumers will no longer buy the product at the higher price due to sticker shock. In this case, pass-through might be lower than our unconditional 60% average midpoint estimate when a tariff rate is higher than 10%.' aria-labelledby='footnote-label-1' class='footnote-ref'>8</a></p>
<ul>
<li>Average pass-through for this subset of RPs is around 80%—around 20&nbsp;percentage points higher than the midpoint of the unconditional pass-through estimates (when all RPs are included in the average pass-through calculations) (<a href="#chart4">Chart&nbsp;4</a>).</li>
<li>Conditional pass-through is around 100% for food, around 70% for durable goods and around 90% for semi-&nbsp;and non-durable goods. These pass-through estimates are all also around 20 to 30&nbsp;percentage points higher than their unconditional counterpart estimates (see <a href="https://www.bankofcanada.ca/wp-content/uploads/2025/06/staff-analytical-note-2025-18-appendices.pdf#appendixc">Appendix&nbsp;C</a>).
<ul>
<li>As is the case with the unconditional estimates, the range of conditional estimates is far larger for food and smaller for durable goods.</li>
</ul>
</li>
</ul>

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				<div class="cfct-mod-content"><h3 id="chart4" class="boc-toc-only">Chart 4: Average tariff pass-through to consumer prices, conditional on positive price impacts only</h3>
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				<div class="cfct-mod-content"><h2>Conclusion</h2>
<p>Our analysis of Canadian counter-tariffs on the United States in 2018–19 shows that the impact of tariffs on consumer prices varied widely across different goods. On average, tariff pass-through was high, though incomplete, and relatively fast. These findings suggest that present and future tariffs could also lead to substantial upward pressure on consumer prices, especially given the potential for higher tariff rates.</p>
<p>This analysis is only one part of Bank staff’s efforts to fully understand the implications of trade policy changes for the Canadian economy. Our results are broadly in line with insights from other work, including ongoing consultations with businesses and households.<a href='#footnote-9' id='footnote-ref-9' title='For more information, see “How Canadian businesses and households are reacting to the trade conflict” on the Bank’s website as well as the Bank’s Business Outlook Survey—First Quarter of 2025.' aria-labelledby='footnote-label-1' class='footnote-ref'>9</a> Staff will continue to monitor trade policy developments and leverage the highly disaggregated consumer price microdata to monitor the impact of new tariffs on consumer prices.</p>
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				<div class="cfct-mod-content"><h2>Appendix</h2>
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				<div class="cfct-mod-content"><h2>References</h2>
<p>Abadie, A. 2021. “Using Synthetic Controls: Feasibility, Data Requirements, and Methodological Aspects.” <em>Journal of Economic Literature</em> 59&nbsp;(2): 391–425.</p>
<p>Abadie, A., A.&nbsp;Diamond and J.&nbsp;Hainmueller. 2010. “Synthetic Control Methods for Comparative Case Studies: Estimating the Effect of California’s Tobacco Control Program.” <em>Journal of the American Statistical Association</em> 105&nbsp;(490): 493–505.</p>
<p>Abadie, A., A.&nbsp;Diamond and J.&nbsp;Hainmueller. 2015. “Comparative Politics and the Synthetic Control Method.” <em>American Journal of Political Science</em> 59&nbsp;(2): 495–510.</p>
<p>Abadie, A. and J.&nbsp;Gardeazabal. 2003. “The Economic Costs of Conflict: A Case Study of the Basque Country.” <em>American Economic Review</em> 93&nbsp;(1): 113–132.</p>
<p>Cavallo, A., P. Llamas and F. Vazquez. 2025. “<a href="https://www.hbs.edu/faculty/Pages/item.aspx?num=67299">Tracking the Short-Run Price Impact of U.S. Tariffs</a>.” Harvard Business School Working Paper.</p>
<p>Bilyk, O., M.&nbsp;Khan and O.&nbsp;Kostyshyna. 2024. “<a href="https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2024/04/staff-analytical-note-2024-6/">Pricing Behaviour and Inflation During the COVID-19 Pandemic: Insights from Consumer Prices Microdata</a>.” Bank of Canada Staff Analytical Note No.&nbsp;2024-6.</p>
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<div class="row"><div class="col-sm-12"><label class="sr-only" id="footnote-label-1">Footnotes</label><ol class="footnotes"><li id='footnote-1'>1. See “<a href="https://www.canada.ca/en/department-finance/programs/international-trade-finance-policy/canadas-response-us-tariffs.html">Canada’s response to U.S. tariffs on Canadian goods</a>” on the Department of Finance Canada’s website for a full list of counter-tariffs as of April 3, 2025.[<a href='#footnote-ref-1' aria-label='Back to content'>←</a>]</li><li id='footnote-2'>2. See “<a href="https://www.canada.ca/en/department-finance/programs/international-trade-finance-policy/measures-steel-aluminum-businesses/countermeasures-response-unjustified-tariffs-canadian-steel-aluminum-products.html">Updated – Countermeasures in Response to Unjustified Tariffs on Canadian Steel and Aluminum Products</a>” on the Department of Finance Canada’s website for a full list of the counter-tariffs in 2018.[<a href='#footnote-ref-2' aria-label='Back to content'>←</a>]</li><li id='footnote-3'>3. For examples of other work assessing the impact of current US tariffs on consumer prices, see <a href="https://pricinglab-rw7gfm.s3.us-east-1.amazonaws.com/tariffs/TrackingTariffs_Cavallo_Llamas_Vazquez.pdf">Cavallo, Llamas and Vazquez&nbsp;(2025)</a>.[<a href='#footnote-ref-3' aria-label='Back to content'>←</a>]</li><li id='footnote-4'>4. For more information on the consumer price microdata, see <a href="https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2024/04/staff-analytical-note-2024-6/">Bilyk, Khan and Kostyshyna&nbsp;(2024)</a>.[<a href='#footnote-ref-4' aria-label='Back to content'>←</a>]</li><li id='footnote-5'>5. For more information on SCM, see <a href="https://www.aeaweb.org/content/file?id=12409">Abadie&nbsp;(2021)</a>. For examples of notable studies using SCM, see <a href="https://www.aeaweb.org/articles?id=10.1257/000282803321455188">Abadie and Gardeazabal&nbsp;(2003)</a>, <a href="https://economics.mit.edu/sites/default/files/publications/Synthetic%20Control%20Methods.pdf">Abadie, Diamond and Hainmueller&nbsp;(2010)</a> and <a href="https://economics.mit.edu/sites/default/files/publications/Comparative%20Politics%20and%20the%20Synthetic%20Control.pdf">Abadie, Diamond and Hainmueller&nbsp;(2015)</a>.[<a href='#footnote-ref-5' aria-label='Back to content'>←</a>]</li><li id='footnote-6'>6. The choice of non-tariffed items used to create each tariffed item’s synthetic control is based purely on statistical correlation. For example, the synthetic control of the tariffed item “tomato ketchup” is constructed from “bananas,” “cooking or salad oil,” “corn flakes cereal,” “macaroni” and “margarine.”[<a href='#footnote-ref-6' aria-label='Back to content'>←</a>]</li><li id='footnote-7'>7. We restrict estimation coefficients to be greater than or equal to zero so that all our weights are non-negative. However, we do not restrict the coefficients to sum to one because the price paths of various items on either side of the regression equations may have different variances.[<a href='#footnote-ref-7' aria-label='Back to content'>←</a>]</li><li id='footnote-8'>8. It is also possible that the nonlinearity of tariff pass-through relative to the tariff rate may be in the opposite direction. For example, businesses might fully pass through a small tariff increase but not a larger one if they believe consumers will no longer buy the product at the higher price due to sticker shock. In this case, pass-through might be lower than our unconditional 60% average midpoint estimate when a tariff rate is higher than 10%.[<a href='#footnote-ref-8' aria-label='Back to content'>←</a>]</li><li id='footnote-9'>9. For more information, see “<a href="https://www.bankofcanada.ca/publications/consultations-2025-03-12/">How Canadian businesses and households are reacting to the trade conflict</a>” on the Bank’s website as well as the Bank’s <a href="https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2025/04/business-outlook-survey-first-quarter-of-2025/"><em>Business Outlook Survey—First Quarter of 2025</em></a>.[<a href='#footnote-ref-9' aria-label='Back to content'>←</a>]</li></ol></div></div>
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if (typeof AmCharts == 'undefined') AmCharts = {};
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var amchart6;
  
BocDataTrigger.start().then(() => {
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try {
if (typeof AmCharts == 'undefined') AmCharts = {};
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var amchart7;
  
BocDataTrigger.start().then(() => {
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catch( err ) { console.log( err ); }
try {
if (typeof AmCharts == 'undefined') AmCharts = {};
AmCharts.wpChartData = {"group":"SAN_LAMA20250603_C3D","period":"quarter","subtitle":"d. Semi- and non-durable goods","series0type":"band","series0openfield":"SAN_LAMA20250603_C3D_S1","series0closefield":"SAN_LAMA20250603_C3D_S2","series0tooltiptext":"Range: {SAN_LAMA20250603_C3D_S1}\u2013{SAN_LAMA20250603_C3D_S2}","series1tooltiptext":"Midpoint: {SAN_LAMA20250603_C3D_S3}","leftaxisunit":"%","series0label":"Range"};
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var amchart8;
  
BocDataTrigger.start().then(() => {
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catch( err ) { console.log( err ); }
try {
if (typeof AmCharts == 'undefined') AmCharts = {};
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    "dataSource": {},
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};
  
  
var amchart9;
  
BocDataTrigger.start().then(() => {
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});
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