Saved copy of
CBO publication page for letter 62756
Congressional Budget Office · 2026-09-15
<!DOCTYPE html>
<html lang="en" dir="ltr" prefix="og: https://ogp.me/ns#">
<head>
<script>window.ddjskey='A5C464E45E28E8664DD1D5C59296AB';window.ddoptions={};</script>
<meta charset="utf-8" />
<noscript><style>form.antibot > * { display: none !important; } form.antibot noscript { display: block !important; }</style>
</noscript><meta name="description" content="CBO assesses the Department of Defense's costs for the current armed conflict against Iran, as well as the conflict's economic and budgetary effects." />
<link rel="canonical" href="https://www.cbo.gov/publication/62756" />
<meta property="og:determiner" content="Automatic" />
<meta property="og:site_name" content="Congressional Budget Office" />
<meta property="og:type" content="Report" />
<meta property="og:url" content="https://www.cbo.gov/publication/62756" />
<meta property="og:title" content="Estimating the Cost of Combat Operations Against Iran" />
<meta property="og:description" content="CBO assesses the Department of Defense's costs for the current armed conflict against Iran, as well as the conflict's economic and budgetary effects." />
<meta property="og:image" content="https://www.cbo.gov/sites/default/files/styles/social/public/2026-09/62756-home-Iran.jpg?itok=JOS5nbml" />
<meta property="book:release_date" content="Tue, 09/15/2026 - 12:00" />
<meta name="twitter:card" content="summary_large_image" />
<meta name="twitter:description" content="CBO assesses the Department of Defense's costs for the current armed conflict against Iran, as well as the conflict's economic and budgetary effects." />
<meta name="twitter:site" content="@USCBO" />
<meta name="twitter:title" content="Estimating the Cost of Combat Operations Against Iran" />
<meta name="twitter:site:id" content="1531265618" />
<meta name="twitter:creator" content="@USCBO" />
<meta name="twitter:creator:id" content="1531265618" />
<meta name="twitter:image" content="https://www.cbo.gov/sites/default/files/styles/social/public/2026-09/62756-home-Iran.jpg?itok=JOS5nbml" />
<meta name="twitter:image:alt" content="62756-home-Iran.jpg" />
<meta name="Generator" content="Drupal 10 (https://www.drupal.org)" />
<meta name="MobileOptimized" content="width" />
<meta name="HandheldFriendly" content="true" />
<meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1.0" />
<link rel="icon" href="/themes/custom/cbo/apple-touch-icon.png" type="image/png" />
<title>Estimating the Cost of Combat Operations Against Iran | Congressional Budget Office</title>
<link rel="stylesheet" media="all" href="/sites/default/files/css/css_xN0LOTrmaWC3Wj_HYl_p2dUdB3tiMKlKHhu4r4_73AY.css?delta=0&language=en&theme=cbo&include=eJwdi1EOwyAMxS5EmyOhAG8oVQotgbXcfmg_lmzJAb2jebxXNST_EV1qlFHQWF0MlbLWwLpZnyolu1gbKLVxse588OuOe6BNP4SkrLms_kjK6Fs0czat46TABvcVPEZ_7mdNQ_EDeIExmw" />
<link rel="stylesheet" media="all" href="/sites/default/files/css/css_vBkPtaeDEzOwbSBJ8rGbWcV0mRqCO7KeCI4FYJlEc6w.css?delta=1&language=en&theme=cbo&include=eJwdi1EOwyAMxS5EmyOhAG8oVQotgbXcfmg_lmzJAb2jebxXNST_EV1qlFHQWF0MlbLWwLpZnyolu1gbKLVxse588OuOe6BNP4SkrLms_kjK6Fs0czat46TABvcVPEZ_7mdNQ_EDeIExmw" />
<script type="application/json" data-drupal-selector="drupal-settings-json">{"path":{"baseUrl":"\/","pathPrefix":"","currentPath":"node\/62756","currentPathIsAdmin":false,"isFront":false,"currentLanguage":"en"},"pluralDelimiter":"\u0003","suppressDeprecationErrors":true,"gtag":{"tagId":"G-TMTDEKRHDC","consentMode":false,"otherIds":[],"events":[],"additionalConfigInfo":{"content_type":"Report","congressional_session":"119th Congress (2025-2026)","publication_type":"Letter","publication_topics_0":"Budget","publication_topics_1":"Outlook for the Budget and the Economy","publication_topics_2":"Defense and National Security","page_title":"Estimating the Cost of Combat Operations Against Iran"}},"ajaxPageState":{"libraries":"eJxdiEsOwjAMBS8U6iNFTvOwgpy4ig20t-cjsaCb0cwURGBm7Js5ar42faeTYGCyprUYiVphvfg62xb-t-LQNuSzcuXgah30kyRmosjBQvLGuRe-8Z56G80mD0F27kqnXgIeyQ8PdCrsSI-Gp9OXS7d6V7wADu1L0g","theme":"cbo","theme_token":null},"ajaxTrustedUrl":{"\/search":true},"miniorange_saml":{"base_url":"https:\/\/www.cbo.gov"},"user":{"uid":0,"permissionsHash":"edd8cdec7ed469c4ab90b3f8ca93cfca9162bbc33c5ddbb9ee3c7ab98b3d700c"}}</script>
<script src="/sites/default/files/js/js_0XhHnOL4UlK8X_i8dNm0xPatuLmad67bSgR2pvpc4aA.js?scope=header&delta=0&language=en&theme=cbo&include=eJxdyEEOwzAIRNELueFICMdT5AqbyLDI8ZMsuslm9N9UZGIxzsMDjb_dbgYpJpZY2auTmlexT-yrHxnPxU1Smg_QP4q6q4FTlPSetzf5yVlGn92XTAWHDKOXt0TkBSwQOJU"></script>
<script src="https://js.datadome.co/tags.js"></script>
<script src="/modules/contrib/google_tag/js/gtag.js?tkrvmm"></script>
<script async="true" data-browser-key="526ef912efeafabdf275fe8877acdffe8f39e58f258d81a9ca8030b653e0a1d1" data-sample-rate="1.000000" data-parent-trace-id="388fde14f4a0ebd0c4895b87aa6433bf" data-transaction-name="Drupal\node\Controller\NodeViewController::view" data-collector="https://ingest.upsun-us.observability-pipeline.blackfire.io" src="https://admin-pipeline.upsun-us.observability-pipeline.blackfire.io/js/probe.js"></script></head>
<body class="no-sidebars page-node-62756 path-node page-node-type-reports">
<a href="#main-content" class="visually-hidden focusable skip-link">
Skip to main content
</a>
<div class="dialog-off-canvas-main-canvas" data-off-canvas-main-canvas>
<div role="document" class="page">
<header id="site-header">
<div class="outer-wrapper">
<a href="/" rel="home" title="Congressional Budget Office" class="home-link">
<picture>
<source media="(min-width: 901px)" type="image/svg+xml" srcset="/themes/custom/cbo/images/cbo_logo_50Anniversary.svg">
<source media="(max-width: 900px)" type="image/svg+xml" srcset="/themes/custom/cbo/images/cbo_logo_50Anniversary.svg">
<img class="logo" typeof="foaf:Image" src="/themes/custom/cbo/images/cbo_logo_50Anniversary.png" alt="Congressional Budget Office logo" title="Congressional Budget Office Home" width="400" height="auto" loading="eager">
</picture>
</a>
<div class="main-navigation">
<a href="#menu" class="menu-link">
<span class="icon-bar-block">
<span class="icon-bar"></span>
<span class="icon-bar"></span>
<span class="icon-bar"></span>
</span>
<span class="menu-btn-text">menu</span>
</a>
<a href="#search" class="search-link">
<picture>
<source type="image/svg+xml" srcset="/themes/custom/cbo/images/search-icon.svg">
<img class="" typeof="foaf:Image" src="/themes/custom/cbo/images/search-icon.png" alt="Search" title="Search">
</picture>
</a>
<section id="block-cbo-branding" class="block block-system block-system-branding-block">
</section>
<nav role="navigation" aria-labelledby="block-cbo-mainmenu-menu" id="block-cbo-mainmenu" class="block block-menu navigation menu--main">
<h2 class="visually-hidden" id="block-cbo-mainmenu-menu">Main menu</h2>
<ul class="menu">
<li class="menu-item menu-item--collapsed">
<a href="/about/overview" data-drupal-link-system-path="node/104">About CBO</a>
</li>
<li class="menu-item menu-item--collapsed">
<a href="/topics" title="" data-drupal-link-system-path="topics">Topics</a>
</li>
<li class="menu-item">
<a href="/cost-estimates" data-drupal-link-system-path="cost-estimates">Cost Estimates</a>
</li>
<li class="menu-item menu-item--collapsed">
<a href="/data" data-drupal-link-system-path="node/56283">Data</a>
</li>
<li class="menu-item menu-item--collapsed">
<a href="/models/tools" data-drupal-link-system-path="node/61871">Models</a>
</li>
<li class="menu-item">
<a href="/faqs" data-drupal-link-system-path="node/49835">FAQs</a>
</li>
<li class="menu-item">
<a href="/blog" data-drupal-link-system-path="blog">Blog</a>
</li>
</ul>
</nav>
<section class="views-exposed-form bef-exposed-form search-exposed" data-drupal-selector="views-exposed-form-general-solr-page-1" id="block-cbo-exposedformgeneral-solrpage-1-2">
<form action="/search" method="get" id="views-exposed-form-general-solr-page-1" accept-charset="UTF-8">
<div class="form--inline clearfix">
<div class="js-form-item form-item js-form-type-textfield form-type-textfield js-form-item-search-api-fulltext form-item-search-api-fulltext">
<label for="edit-search-api-fulltext--3">Enter your keywords</label>
<input placeholder="Search CBO.gov" data-drupal-selector="edit-search-api-fulltext" type="text" id="edit-search-api-fulltext--3" name="search_api_fulltext" value="" size="30" maxlength="128" class="form-text" />
</div>
<fieldset data-drupal-selector="edit-field-search" id="edit-field-search--3--wrapper" class="fieldgroup form-composite js-form-item form-item js-form-wrapper form-wrapper">
<legend>
<span class="fieldset-legend">Search Only: </span>
</legend>
<div class="fieldset-wrapper">
<div id="edit-field-search--3" class="form-checkboxes"><div class="js-form-item form-item js-form-type-checkbox form-type-checkbox js-form-item-field-search-bill form-item-field-search-bill">
<input data-drupal-selector="edit-field-search-bill" type="checkbox" id="edit-field-search-bill--3" name="field_search[bill]" value="bill" class="form-checkbox" />
<label for="edit-field-search-bill--3" class="option">Bill Number</label>
</div>
<div class="js-form-item form-item js-form-type-checkbox form-type-checkbox js-form-item-field-search-title form-item-field-search-title">
<input data-drupal-selector="edit-field-search-title" type="checkbox" id="edit-field-search-title--3" name="field_search[title]" value="title" class="form-checkbox" />
<label for="edit-field-search-title--3" class="option">Title</label>
</div>
</div>
</div>
</fieldset>
<input data-drupal-selector="edit-field-entire-bill-number" type="hidden" name="field_entire_bill_number" value="" />
<div class="js-form-item form-item js-form-type-select form-type-select js-form-item-field-publication-topics form-item-field-publication-topics">
<label for="edit-field-publication-topics--3">Topic</label>
<select data-drupal-selector="edit-field-publication-topics" multiple="multiple" name="field_publication_topics[]" id="edit-field-publication-topics--3" class="form-select"><option value="2">Budget (3534)</option><option value="22">Taxes (2375)</option><option value="6">Economy (2243)</option><option value="9">Energy and Natural Resources (2001)</option><option value="11">Health Care (1828)</option><option value="26">Outlook for the Budget and the Economy (1418)</option><option value="1583">Outlook for the Budget and the Economy (1411)</option><option value="1584">Outlook for the Budget and the Economy (1364)</option><option value="17">Defense and National Security (930)</option><option value="10">Finance (875)</option><option value="12">Homeland Security (801)</option><option value="18">Poverty and Income Security (777)</option><option value="15">Infrastructure and Transportation (757)</option><option value="19">Retirement (684)</option><option value="8">Employment and Labor Markets (670)</option><option value="53">Defense Budget (540)</option><option value="47">Medicare (537)</option><option value="4">Climate and Environment (530)</option><option value="27">Budget Concepts and Process (480)</option><option value="23">Veterans' Issues (462)</option><option value="3">CBO Operations (438)</option><option value="58">Social Security (413)</option><option value="1594">Banking and Capital Markets (380)</option><option value="31">Long-Term Budget Analysis (370)</option><option value="56">Weapon Systems (370)</option><option value="46">Medicaid and CHIP (369)</option><option value="21">State and Local Governments (360)</option><option value="7">Education (353)</option><option value="1585">Medicare (348)</option><option value="55">Military Personnel (322)</option><option value="45">Affordable Care Act (316)</option><option value="25">Status of Appropriations (296)</option><option value="1586">Medicaid and CHIP (281)</option><option value="13">Housing (275)</option><option value="42">Federal Personnel (254)</option><option value="20">Science and Research and Development (250)</option><option value="1550">Climate Change (214)</option><option value="1593">Banking and Capital Markets (209)</option><option value="1743">Prescription Drugs (203)</option><option value="1548">Public Health and Prevention (201)</option><option value="5">Disaster Preparation and Relief (199)</option><option value="48">Private Health Insurance (196)</option><option value="39">International Trade and Finance (188)</option><option value="1598">Surface Transportation (188)</option><option value="52">Information Technology (185)</option><option value="1549">Economic Effects of Fiscal Policy (177)</option><option value="1">Agriculture (175)</option><option value="24">President's Budget (172)</option><option value="1551">Long-Term Economic Analysis (172)</option><option value="1592">Federal Credit Programs (170)</option><option value="44">Housing Finance (163)</option><option value="1581">President's Budget (162)</option><option value="1582">President's Budget (160)</option><option value="14">Immigration (157)</option><option value="1589">Housing Finance (154)</option><option value="1595">Military and Veterans' Health Care (148)</option><option value="1597">Military and Veterans' Health Care (148)</option><option value="1588">Tax Credits (145)</option><option value="28">Budget Options (144)</option><option value="1591">Federal Credit Programs (138)</option><option value="1599">Surface Transportation (138)</option><option value="1596">Military and Veterans' Health Care (137)</option><option value="61">Pensions (121)</option><option value="57">Food and Nutrition Programs (117)</option><option value="1756">Reconciliation (115)</option><option value="1632">Dynamic Analysis (110)</option><option value="1785">Explaining Analytical Methods (106)</option><option value="1590">Income Distribution (102)</option><option value="33">Sequestration (90)</option><option value="16">Mandates (89)</option><option value="1547">Tax Credits (80)</option><option value="1682">Tax Rates (77)</option><option value="1744">COVID-19 (77)</option><option value="62">Distribution of Federal Taxes (76)</option><option value="1634">Methods for Analyzing Health Insurance Coverage (75)</option><option value="1600">Distribution of Federal Taxes (71)</option><option value="1786">Explaining Analytical Methods (63)</option><option value="1602">Disability Insurance (60)</option><option value="1791">Explaining Analytical Methods (46)</option><option value="59">Supplemental Security Income (42)</option><option value="1766">Methods for Analyzing the Economic Effects of Fiscal Policy Changes (39)</option><option value="1784">Explaining Analytical Methods (35)</option><option value="1693">Accuracy of Projections (33)</option><option value="1778">Explaining Analytical Methods (33)</option><option value="1765">Methods for Analyzing the Economic Effects of Fiscal Policy Changes (31)</option><option value="1771">Explaining Analytical Methods (25)</option><option value="1773">Explaining Analytical Methods (25)</option><option value="1775">Explaining Analytical Methods (22)</option><option value="1770">Explaining Analytical Methods (21)</option><option value="1782">Explaining Analytical Methods (21)</option><option value="1787">Explaining Analytical Methods (17)</option><option value="1780">Explaining Analytical Methods (16)</option><option value="1792">Explaining Analytical Methods (14)</option><option value="1764">Methods for Baseline Economic Projections (13)</option><option value="1776">Explaining Analytical Methods (12)</option><option value="1767">Methods for Analyzing the Uncertainty of Economic and Budget Projections (11)</option><option value="1774">Explaining Analytical Methods (11)</option><option value="1777">Explaining Analytical Methods (11)</option><option value="1783">Explaining Analytical Methods (11)</option><option value="1768">Methods for Analyzing the Uncertainty of Economic and Budget Projections (10)</option><option value="1781">Explaining Analytical Methods (10)</option><option value="1789">Explaining Analytical Methods (8)</option><option value="1790">Explaining Analytical Methods (7)</option><option value="1793">Explaining Analytical Methods (6)</option><option value="1769">Explaining Analytical Methods (4)</option><option value="1794">Explaining Analytical Methods (4)</option><option value="1772">Explaining Analytical Methods (2)</option><option value="1779">Explaining Analytical Methods (2)</option></select>
</div>
<div class="js-form-item form-item js-form-type-select form-type-select js-form-item-field-display-date form-item-field-display-date">
<label for="edit-field-display-date--3">Publication Date</label>
<select data-drupal-selector="edit-field-display-date" multiple="multiple" name="field_display_date[]" id="edit-field-display-date--3" class="form-select"><option value="2026">2026 (761)</option><option value="2025">2025 (714)</option><option value="2024">2024 (1102)</option><option value="2023">2023 (832)</option><option value="2022">2022 (947)</option><option value="2021">2021 (596)</option><option value="2020">2020 (712)</option><option value="2019">2019 (895)</option><option value="2018">2018 (1149)</option><option value="2017">2017 (912)</option><option value="2016">2016 (819)</option><option value="2015">2015 (809)</option><option value="2014">2014 (800)</option><option value="2013">2013 (742)</option><option value="2012">2012 (720)</option><option value="2011">2011 (702)</option><option value="2010">2010 (896)</option><option value="2009">2009 (783)</option><option value="2008">2008 (1015)</option><option value="2007">2007 (946)</option><option value="2006">2006 (643)</option><option value="2005">2005 (693)</option><option value="2004">2004 (728)</option><option value="2003">2003 (720)</option><option value="2002">2002 (754)</option><option value="2001">2001 (500)</option><option value="2000">2000 (897)</option><option value="1999">1999 (742)</option><option value="1998">1998 (716)</option><option value="1997">1997 (316)</option><option value="1996">1996 (46)</option><option value="1995">1995 (73)</option><option value="1994">1994 (82)</option><option value="1993">1993 (104)</option><option value="1992">1992 (83)</option><option value="1991">1991 (105)</option><option value="1990">1990 (95)</option><option value="1989">1989 (73)</option><option value="1988">1988 (61)</option><option value="1987">1987 (85)</option><option value="1986">1986 (71)</option><option value="1985">1985 (90)</option><option value="1984">1984 (89)</option><option value="1983">1983 (118)</option><option value="1982">1982 (108)</option><option value="1981">1981 (102)</option><option value="1980">1980 (80)</option><option value="1979">1979 (87)</option><option value="1978">1978 (80)</option><option value="1977">1977 (107)</option><option value="1976">1976 (68)</option><option value="1975">1975 (14)</option></select>
</div>
<div class="js-form-item form-item js-form-type-select form-type-select js-form-item-type form-item-type">
<label for="edit-type--3">Content Type</label>
<select data-drupal-selector="edit-type" multiple="multiple" name="type[]" id="edit-type--3" class="form-select"><option value="cost_estimate">Cost Estimate (18525)</option><option value="reports">Report (4552)</option><option value="blog">Blog Post (1050)</option><option value="presentation">Presentation (623)</option><option value="working_paper">Working Paper (331)</option><option value="data_and_technical_information">Data and Technical Information (118)</option><option value="graphic">Graphic (84)</option><option value="recurring_data">Recurring Data (64)</option><option value="page">Basic Page (50)</option><option value="all_recurring_reports">Recurring Reports (36)</option><option value="interactives">Interactive (32)</option><option value="podcast">Podcast (3)</option></select>
</div>
<input data-drupal-selector="edit-submit-general-solr-3" type="submit" id="edit-submit-general-solr--3" value="Search" class="button js-form-submit form-submit" />
</div>
</form>
</section>
<div data-drupal-messages-fallback class="hidden"></div>
</div>
</header>
<main role="main" class="outer-wrapper">
<a id="main-content" tabindex="-1"></a>
<section id="content">
<section id="block-cbo-cbo-system-main" class="block block-system block-system-main-block">
<article>
<div>
<div class="top-section" style="position: relative;">
<h1 class="title" id="page-title">
<span>Estimating the Cost of Combat Operations Against Iran</span>
</h1>
<div class="meta">
<div class="field field--name-field-display-date field--type-datetime field--label-hidden field__item"><time datetime="2026-09-15T12:00:00Z">September 15, 2026</time>
</div>
<div class="content-type">Report</div>
</div>
<div class="field field--name-field-homepage-graphic field--type-entity-reference field--label-hidden field__item"><div>
<div class="field field--name-field-media-image field--type-image field--label-hidden field__item"> <picture>
<source srcset="/sites/default/files/styles/918/public/2026-09/62756-home-Iran.jpg?itok=GJr_Q9Gf 918w, /sites/default/files/2026-09/62756-home-Iran.jpg 1650w" media="@media screen and (min-width: 61.25em) and (-webkit-min-device-pixel-ratio: 1.25), (min-width: 61.25em) and (min-resolution: 120dpi)" type="image/jpeg" sizes="918px" width="1650" height="1100"/>
<source srcset="/sites/default/files/2026-09/62756-home-Iran.jpg 1x" media="@media screen and (min-width: 48em) and (min-width: 61.25em)" type="image/jpeg" width="1650" height="1100"/>
<source srcset="/sites/default/files/2026-09/62756-home-Iran.jpg 1x" media="@media screen and (min-width: 61.25em)" type="image/jpeg" width="1650" height="1100"/>
<source srcset="/sites/default/files/styles/240/public/2026-09/62756-home-Iran.jpg?itok=Ro9qZyH3 240w, /sites/default/files/styles/480/public/2026-09/62756-home-Iran.jpg?itok=FUwlojxL 480w, /sites/default/files/styles/624/public/2026-09/62756-home-Iran.jpg?itok=lceeSQ5E 624w, /sites/default/files/styles/800/public/2026-09/62756-home-Iran.jpg?itok=jO-8pwvA 800w, /sites/default/files/styles/1078/public/2026-09/62756-home-Iran.jpg?itok=5TuJ7QgI 1078w, /sites/default/files/2026-09/62756-home-Iran.jpg 1650w" media="@media screen and (min-width: 28em)" type="image/jpeg" sizes="49vw" width="1650" height="1100"/>
<source srcset="/sites/default/files/styles/240/public/2026-09/62756-home-Iran.jpg?itok=Ro9qZyH3 240w, /sites/default/files/styles/480/public/2026-09/62756-home-Iran.jpg?itok=FUwlojxL 480w, /sites/default/files/styles/624/public/2026-09/62756-home-Iran.jpg?itok=lceeSQ5E 624w, /sites/default/files/styles/800/public/2026-09/62756-home-Iran.jpg?itok=jO-8pwvA 800w, /sites/default/files/styles/1500/public/2026-09/62756-home-Iran.jpg?itok=NzzN2Ukz 1500w, /sites/default/files/2026-09/62756-home-Iran.jpg 1650w" type="image/jpeg" sizes="95vw" width="1650" height="1100"/>
<img loading="eager" width="480" height="320" src="/sites/default/files/styles/480/public/2026-09/62756-home-Iran.jpg?itok=FUwlojxL" alt="" />
</picture>
</div>
</div>
</div>
<div class="summary"><div class="view view-summary view-id-summary view-display-id-meta_summary js-view-dom-id-8208a3170e9f3d141e9ae7d2d079cfe921588d91ccec421562e32d8ca5424670">
<div class="view-content">
<div class="views-row"><p>CBO assesses the Department of Defense's costs for the current armed conflict against Iran, as well as the conflict's economic and budgetary effects.</p></div>
</div>
</div>
</div>
<section class="meta--data">
<div class="left">
<div id="toc"></div>
</div>
<div class="right" style="">
<div class="documents" style="">
<div class="view view-view-document view-id-view_document view-display-id-block_1 js-view-dom-id-7ebacf3839ffe2d8d64faf708be41a57cbeae0717df675e7f9a3104cd84b1544">
<div class="view-content">
<div class="views-row"> <a href="/system/files/2026-09/62756-Iran.pdf">View Document</a><div class="document-size">1.03 MB</div></div>
</div>
</div>
</div>
</div>
</section>
</div><!-- /.top-section -->
<div class="main-section">
<section class="summary">
<header role="button" class="head-section" aria-expanded="false" aria-controls="content-panel"><h2>Summary</h2></header>
<div class="content" id="content-panel" aria-hidden="true">
<article>
<div class="clearfix text-formatted field field--name-body field--type-text-with-summary field--label-hidden field__item"><p>CBO was asked to estimate the cost of U.S. combat operations against Iran that began this past February as Operation Epic Fury. Specifically, the agency was asked to focus on four categories of costs associated with the armed conflict: the Department of Defense's (DoD's) operational, logistical, and sustainment costs; DoD's opportunity costs; costs associated with increased prices as a result of economic disruption; and potential additional costs, such as those associated with diplomatic operations and foreign aid.</p><h3>Summary of CBO's Findings</h3><p>The estimates that CBO was asked to produce for each category of costs are the result of separate analyses that reflect disparate data, methods, time periods, and magnitudes of uncertainty. Thus, the estimates for each category are not directly comparable or summable. Moreover, CBO's estimates of costs in those various categories are qualitatively different. For example, estimates of the cost of expended munitions are directly tied to events that have transpired, whereas estimates of the long-term economic and budgetary impact of the conflict reflect fiscal effects that have yet to unfold.</p><p><strong>DoD's Operational, Logistical, and Sustainment Costs.</strong> CBO estimates that as of August 1, 2026, the armed conflict with Iran has cost DoD approximately $38 billion. That amount reflects the costs of replacing expended munitions and equipment lost in battle, increased flying hours, other operations, and increased fuel costs. It also reflects that the initial, intense phase of the conflict lasted just over a month (less intense combat operations are still ongoing) and that relatively few U.S. forces have been involved compared with the much larger and longer U.S. operations in Iraq and Afghanistan. CBO's estimate does not include costs borne by other parts of the federal government, such as the increased cost of fuel used by the Postal Service. Nor does it include costs already accounted for in the federal budget, such as the basic operating costs of the military forces involved in the conflict.</p><p>As the conflict persists, DoD's costs will continue to increase—slowly if the level of violence remains low and sporadic (as it did in May and June) and rapidly if the intensity of the conflict escalates (as it did in July). CBO estimates that if the level of violence remained as low as it was in May and June, an additional month of conflict would cost $2 billion; if the intensity of the conflict increased to roughly the level experienced in July, the cost per month would increase to $3 billion. Monthly costs could be higher still if the violence escalated further.</p><p>To estimate DoD's costs, CBO relied on government databases and public reports because DoD did not respond to CBO's requests for information. As a result, CBO's estimates are subject to considerable uncertainty. This past June, the Administration requested $87.6 billion in supplemental appropriations, of which $67.1 billion was for DoD to pay for the conflict. The portion of that request that appears to be directly related to the conflict, $42.3 billion, is about 10 percent larger than CBO's estimate of DoD's costs.</p><p><strong>DoD's Opportunity Costs.</strong> For DoD, the main opportunity cost of the conflict thus far has been the large expenditure of missile defense interceptors, which will leave the United States with a reduced inventory of interceptors for several years. The shortfall would become especially problematic if a conflict arose with an opponent whose arsenal included large numbers of ballistic and cruise missiles. (The People's Republic of China, PRC, maintains such an arsenal, which would probably play a major role in a military conflict involving Taiwan.)</p><p><strong>Economic and Budgetary Effects.</strong> CBO estimates that the main economic impact of the conflict with Iran consists of inflationary pressures caused by the reduction in shipments of oil and natural gas through the Strait of Hormuz and disruptions to shipping through the Red Sea (which have intensified since CBO completed the analysis underlying this letter). That reduction has increased energy prices globally. In addition to raising crude oil prices, the conflict has disrupted global refining activities and, consequently, increased the prices of refined petroleum products such as gasoline, diesel fuel, and jet fuel. Petroleum is a component of the bundle of goods and services that all Americans purchase. Because the price of almost every product reflects shipping costs, increases in petroleum prices—a significant input in transporting goods—indirectly affect the prices of most goods and services.</p><p>In CBO's assessment, the effects of those higher energy prices will put upward pressure on consumer prices. As a result, in the first quarter of 2027, inflation (measured year over year) in the price index for personal consumption expenditures (PCE) is now estimated to be 0.5 percentage points higher than the agency projected in February 2026, and core PCE inflation is estimated to be 0.3 percentage points higher than previously projected. (The core PCE price index excludes prices for food and energy.)</p><p>In CBO's baseline projections, the paths of overall and core PCE inflation differ: Overall PCE inflation reflects the direct effect of increased energy prices, which, in CBO's estimation, added 2.3 percentage points to the annualized rate of inflation in the second quarter of 2026. (PCE inflation in that quarter was 5.3 percent.) As energy prices decline, that effect diminishes in subsequent quarters in relation to CBO's projections. The conflict has affected core PCE inflation more gradually than it has affected overall inflation. But in CBO's estimation, core PCE inflation will remain elevated longer because higher energy prices take longer to affect prices of nonenergy goods and services than they do the price of gasoline or other energy-related products.</p><p>The agency estimates that the higher rates of inflation attributable to the conflict will boost interest rates on Treasury securities. In CBO's assessment, interest rates on 3-month Treasury bills are nearly 0.2 percentage points higher in 2026 than the agency estimated this past February. By the first half of 2027, such rates are less than 0.1 percentage point higher than previously estimated.</p><p>Those higher rates of inflation and higher interest rates are estimated to have modest effects on CBO's projections of federal revenues and spending. Moreover, those effects would be roughly offsetting. On the one hand, higher inflation would boost revenues. On the other hand, higher interest rates and higher inflation would increase net outlays for interest and outlays for mandatory spending programs, and CBO's baseline projections of discretionary spending would increase if wages and prices in the economy were higher.</p><p><strong>Potential Additional Costs.</strong> CBO was unable to estimate potential additional costs of the conflict associated with diplomatic operations and foreign aid, for example. Such costs would be diffuse and would depend on the outcome of the conflict.</p></div>
</article>
</div>
</section>
<section class="related-publications">
<header class="head-section" role="button"><a name="related_pub"></a><h2 id="">Related Publications</h2></header>
<div class="content"><div class="view view-related view-id-related view-display-id-publications js-view-dom-id-ec5cd4ce766b2502cc31a9f4243ce081915ceec9466e73b8ead3619c567d6446">
<div class="view-content">
<div class="item-list">
<ul>
<li><div class="views-field views-field-title"><span class="field-content"><a href="/publication/61882" hreflang="en">The Budget and Economic Outlook: 2026 to 2036</a></span></div><div class="views-field views-field-field-display-date"><div class="field-content"><time datetime="2026-02-11T12:00:00Z">February 11, 2026</time>
</div></div></li>
<li><div class="views-field views-field-title"><span class="field-content"><a href="/publication/61278" hreflang="en">The U.S. Military’s Force Structure: Fiscal Year 2025 Update to Personnel Numbers and Costs</a></span></div><div class="views-field views-field-field-display-date"><div class="field-content"><time datetime="2025-05-09T12:00:00Z">May 9, 2025</time>
</div></div></li>
<li><div class="views-field views-field-title"><span class="field-content"><a href="/publication/58225" hreflang="en">Alternative Ways to Provide Fuel Within the Department of Defense</a></span></div><div class="views-field views-field-field-display-date"><div class="field-content"><time datetime="2023-07-21T12:00:00Z">July 21, 2023</time>
</div></div></li>
</ul>
</div>
</div>
</div>
</div>
</section>
</div><!-- /.main-section -->
</div>
</article>
</section>
</section>
</main>
<footer id="site-footer" role="contentinfo">
<div class="footer-top-wrapper">
<section class="footer-top">
<section id="block-cbo-stayconnected" class="block block-block-content block-block-content121d8e86-2c04-4907-8bda-853870ff58b5">
<h2 >Stay Connected</h2>
<div class="clearfix text-formatted field field--name-body field--type-text-with-summary field--label-hidden field__item"><form action="https://www.feedblitz.com/f/f.fbz?AddNewUserDirect" id="email-updates-signup" method="POST" name="FeedBlitz_06f6221b03f911e29f67003005ce8903"><fieldset><legend>Get CBO’s Email Updates</legend></fieldset><ol><li><label class="structural" for="email-updates-signup-input">Email Address</label> <input id="email-updates-signup-input" maxlength="64" name="EMAIL" placeholder="email address" size="25" type="email" value> <input maxlength="64" name="EMAIL_" size="25" type="hidden" value> <input maxlength="64" name="EMAIL_ADDRESS" size="25" type="hidden" value> <input name="SiteScope" type="hidden" value="812526"> <input name="PUBLISHER" type="hidden" value="25590652"></li><li class="butt"><button id="email-updates-signup-submit" onclick="FeedBlitz_06f6221b03f911e29f67003005ce8903s(this.form);" type="submit" value="Submit">Submit</button></li></ol></form><script type="text/javascript">
function FeedBlitz_06f6221b03f911e29f67003005ce8903i() {
var x = document.getElementsByName('FeedBlitz_06f6221b03f911e29f67003005ce8903');
for (i = 0; i < x.length; i++) { <!-- Corrected the HTML entity issue -->
x[i].EMAIL.style.display = 'block';
x[i].action = 'https://www.feedblitz.com/f/f.fbz?AddNewUserDirect';
}
}
function FeedBlitz_06f6221b03f911e29f67003005ce8903s(v) {
v.submit();
}
FeedBlitz_06f6221b03f911e29f67003005ce8903i();
</script><div class="social-links"><a class="twitter-home" href="https://x.com/uscbo" rel="noopener" target="_blank"><picture><source srcset="/themes/custom/cbo/images/social-icons/x.svg" type="image/svg+xml"><img class="logo" alt="CBO X" data-entity-type data-entity-uuid src="/themes/custom/cbo/images/social-icons/x.png" title="CBO X" typeof="foaf:Image"></picture></a><a class="twitter-home" href="https://www.threads.net/@congressionalbudgetoffice" rel="noopener" target="_blank"><picture><source srcset="/themes/custom/cbo/images/social-icons/threads.svg" type="image/svg+xml"><img class="logo" alt="CBO Threads" data-entity-type data-entity-uuid src="/themes/custom/cbo/images/social-icons/threads_2x.png" title="CBO Threads" typeof="foaf:Image"> </picture></a><a class="twitter-home" href="https://www.linkedin.com/company/congressional-budget-office" rel="noopener" target="_blank"><picture><source srcset="/themes/custom/cbo/images/social-icons/linkedin-icon.svg" type="image/svg+xml"><img class="logo" alt="CBO LinkedIn" data-entity-type data-entity-uuid src="/themes/custom/cbo/images/social-icons/linkedin-icon.png" title="CBO LinkedIn" typeof="foaf:Image"> </picture></a><a class="twitter-home" href="https://www.slideshare.net/cbo" rel="noopener" target="_blank"><picture><source srcset="/themes/custom/cbo/images/social-icons/slideshare-icon.svg" type="image/svg+xml"><img class="logo" alt="CBO Slideshare" data-entity-type data-entity-uuid src="/themes/custom/cbo/images/social-icons/slideshare-icon.png" title="CBO Slideshare" typeof="foaf:Image"> </picture></a><a class="twitter-home" href="https://www.youtube.com/uscbo" rel="noopener" target="_blank"><picture><source srcset="/themes/custom/cbo/images/social-icons/youtube-icon.svg" type="image/svg+xml"><img class="logo" alt="CBO Youtube" data-entity-type data-entity-uuid src="/themes/custom/cbo/images/social-icons/youtube-icon.png" title="CBO Youtube" typeof="foaf:Image"> </picture></a><a class="twitter-home" href="https://github.com/US-CBO" rel="noopener" target="_blank"><picture><source srcset="/themes/custom/cbo/images/social-icons/github.svg" type="image/svg+xml"><img class="logo" src="/themes/custom/cbo/images/social-icons/github@2x.png" alt="CBO Github" title="CBO Github"> </picture></a><a class="rss-home" href="/publications/all/rss.xml"><picture><source srcset="/themes/custom/cbo/images/social-icons/rss-icon.svg" type="image/svg+xml"><img class="logo" alt="CBO RSS" data-entity-type data-entity-uuid src="/themes/custom/cbo/images/social-icons/rss-icon.png" title="CBO RSS" typeof="foaf:Image"></picture></a></div></div>
</section>
</section>
</div>
<div class="footer-bottom-wrapper">
<section class="footer-bottom">
<nav role="navigation" aria-labelledby="block-cbo-footermenu-menu" id="block-cbo-footermenu" class="block block-menu navigation menu--menu-footer-menu">
<h2 class="visually-hidden" id="block-cbo-footermenu-menu">Footer Menu</h2>
<ul class="menu">
<li class="menu-item">
<a href="/about/overview" title="" data-drupal-link-system-path="node/104">About</a>
</li>
<li class="menu-item">
<a href="/topics" title="" data-drupal-link-system-path="topics">Topics</a>
</li>
<li class="menu-item">
<a href="/cost-estimates" data-drupal-link-system-path="cost-estimates">Cost Estimates</a>
</li>
<li class="menu-item">
<a href="/data/budget-economic-data" data-drupal-link-system-path="node/56279">Data</a>
</li>
<li class="menu-item">
<a href="/interactives">Interactives</a>
</li>
<li class="menu-item">
<a href="/faqs" title="" data-drupal-link-system-path="node/49835">FAQs</a>
</li>
<li class="menu-item">
<a href="/blog" data-drupal-link-system-path="blog">Blog</a>
</li>
</ul>
</nav>
<nav role="navigation" aria-labelledby="block-cbo-footermenuutility-menu" id="block-cbo-footermenuutility" class="block block-menu navigation menu--menu-footer-menu---utility">
<h2 class="visually-hidden" id="block-cbo-footermenuutility-menu">Footer Menu - Utility</h2>
<ul class="menu">
<li class="menu-item">
<a href="/about/careers" title="" data-drupal-link-system-path="node/367">Work at CBO</a>
</li>
<li class="menu-item">
<a href="/about/business-opportunities" title="" data-drupal-link-system-path="node/5048">Business Opportunities</a>
</li>
<li class="menu-item">
<a href="/about/contact" title="" data-drupal-link-system-path="node/255">Contact CBO</a>
</li>
<li class="menu-item">
<a href="/about/press-center" title="" data-drupal-link-system-path="node/51141">Press Center</a>
</li>
<li class="menu-item">
<a href="/about/privacy" title="" data-drupal-link-system-path="node/5049">Privacy, Security, and Copyright Policies</a>
</li>
<li class="menu-item">
<a href="/sitemap" data-drupal-link-system-path="sitemap">Sitemap</a>
</li>
</ul>
</nav>
</section>
</div>
</footer>
</div>
</div>
<script src="/sites/default/files/js/js_NYvkqN8sU-JMUjjcvJgi9P2ztWBlTeVBgDohUP5efzU.js?scope=footer&delta=0&language=en&theme=cbo&include=eJxdyEEOwzAIRNELueFICMdT5AqbyLDI8ZMsuslm9N9UZGIxzsMDjb_dbgYpJpZY2auTmlexT-yrHxnPxU1Smg_QP4q6q4FTlPSetzf5yVlGn92XTAWHDKOXt0TkBSwQOJU"></script>
</body>
</html>