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Kalshi traders think July jobs report will come in slightly cooler than economists’ predictions
CNBC · 2026-08-31
Kalshi traders think July jobs will come in cooler than estimates Skip Navigation Markets Pre-Markets U.S. Markets Currencies Prediction Markets Cryptocurrency Futures & Commodities Bonds Funds & ETFs Business Economy Finance Health & Science Media Real Estate Energy Climate Transportation Investigations Industrials Retail Wealth Sports Life Small Business Investing Personal Finance Fintech Financial Advisors Options Action ETF Street Buffett Archive Earnings Trader Talk Tech Cybersecurity AI Enterprise Internet Media Mobile Social Media CNBC Disruptor 50 Tech Guide Politics & Policy White House Policy Defense Congress Expanding Opportunity Video Latest Video Full Episodes Livestream Live Audio Live TV Schedule CNBC Podcasts CEO Interviews CNBC Documentaries Digital Originals Watchlist Investing Club Trust Portfolio Analysis Trade Alerts Meeting Videos Homestretch Jim's Columns Education Subscribe PRO Pro News Josh Brown Mike Santoli Calls of the Day My Portfolio Livestream Full Episodes Stock Screener Market Forecast Options Investing Chart Investing Subscribe Livestream Menu Make It select USA INTL Livestream Search quotes, news & videos Livestream Watchlist SIGN IN Create free account Markets Business Investing Tech Politics & Policy Video Watchlist Investing Club PRO Livestream Menu Prediction Markets Kalshi traders think July jobs report will come in slightly cooler than economists’ predictions Published Mon, Aug 3 2026 11:59 AM EDT Davis Giangiulio @in/davis-giangiulio @GiangiulioDavis WATCH LIVE Key Points Speculators on prediction market platform Kalshi think that the July jobs number will come in below economists' consensus estimates. Traders on the platform see just a 47% chance the nation added more than 80,000 jobs in July. Economists are expecting 85,000 jobs were gained in the month, according to Dow Jones. A Contemporary Services Corporation (CSC) now hiring flyer is displayed for job opportunities as an event security guard at an Inspire Together job and resource fair in Los Angeles, California on July 29, 2026. Patrick T. Fallon | Afp | Getty Images The Bureau of Labor Statistics is set to release the employment picture for July on Friday, and economists are expecting a gain of 85,000 jobs in the month, according to Dow Jones consensus estimates. However, traders on prediction market platform Kalshi think those figures may come in lower. Speculators place just a 47% chance that employers added more than 80,000 jobs in July, but they also give a 60% chance that they added more than 70,000 jobs in the month. The contracts on the platform ask traders what the jobs number will be for July, asking if the official figure will be above a series of numbers. Contracts are resolved using the official data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. A beat compared with consensus estimates isn't out of the question, even if not likely: traders place a 41% chance employers added 90,000 jobs in July, and just over a one-in-three chance that the number will come in at six figures. However, traders also think there's a one-in-three chance the number will come in below 60,000. Last month , Kalshi traders placed a 63% chance that employers added more than 125,000 jobs in June, above consensus estimates for 115,000. However, the official figure came in much lower, at just 57,000 jobs added. Disclosure: CNBC and Kalshi have a commercial relationship that includes customer acquisition and a minority investment. Choose CNBC as your preferred source on Google and never miss a moment from the most trusted name in business news. Subscribe to CNBC PRO Subscribe to Investing Club Licensing & Reprints CNBC Councils Select Personal Finance Join the CNBC Panel Closed Captioning Digital Products News Releases Internships Corrections About CNBC Site Map Podcasts Careers Help Contact News Tips Got a confidential news tip? We want to hear from you. Get In Touch CNBC Newsletters Sign up for free newsletters and get more CNBC delivered to your inbox Sign Up Now Get this delivered to your inbox, and more info about our products and services. Advertise With Us Please Contact Us Ad Choices Privacy Policy Your Privacy Choices CA Notice Terms of Service © 2026 Versant Media, LLC. All Rights Reserved. A Versant Media Company. Data is a real-time snapshot *Data is delayed at least 15 minutes. Global Business and Financial News, Stock Quotes, and Market Data and Analysis. Market Data Terms of Use and Disclaimers Data also provided by