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Fed decision in September (prediction market)

Polymarket · 2026-09-08

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fill="none"></path></svg></div><input class="flex h-10 w-full rounded-md px-3 py-1 text-sm autofill:!bg-transparent text-pk-content-primary file:border-0 file:bg-transparent file:text-sm file:font-medium file:text-foreground focus-visible:outline-none disabled:cursor-not-allowed disabled:opacity-50 bg-input-filled-bg ring-pk-brand-500/70 transition-[box-shadow] duration-200 placeholder:text-pk-content-secondary focus-visible:ring-0 ring-0 pl-11 max-lg:text-[16px]! border border-transparent" autoComplete="off" id="search-input" placeholder="Search polymarkets..." value=""/></div></form></div><div class="flex items-center gap-x-2 shrink min-w-0 md:shrink-0 md:min-w-fit"><div class="flex items-center gap-x-1 md:gap-x-2 min-w-0 ml-auto"><div class="relative overflow-hidden rounded-md bg-pk-grouped/50 before:absolute before:inset-0 before:-translate-x-full before:-skew-x-12 before:animate-[skeletonShimmer_2s_infinite] before:bg-gradient-to-r before:from-transparent before:via-pk-grouped before:to-transparent w-14 h-7 mr-2 ml-5"></div><div class="relative overflow-hidden rounded-md bg-pk-grouped/50 before:absolute before:inset-0 before:-translate-x-full before:-skew-x-12 before:animate-[skeletonShimmer_2s_infinite] before:bg-gradient-to-r before:from-transparent before:via-pk-grouped before:to-transparent w-14 h-7"></div><div class="relative overflow-hidden rounded-md bg-pk-grouped/50 before:absolute before:inset-0 before:-translate-x-full before:-skew-x-12 before:animate-[skeletonShimmer_2s_infinite] before:bg-gradient-to-r before:from-transparent before:via-pk-grouped before:to-transparent w-8 h-7 ml-3 mr-0 hidden md:block"></div></div></div></div><div class="grid transition-[grid-template-rows] duration-200 ease-out motion-reduce:transition-none grid-rows-[1fr]"><div class="min-h-0 overflow-hidden"><div class="max-w-[var(--page-max-width,1350px)] w-full flex px-4 lg:px-6 mx-auto min-w-0 overflow-x-auto transition-[max-width] duration-150 ease-out motion-reduce:transition-none"><div data-arrow-visibility="overlay" class="relative w-full"><div class="pk-scroll-fade-x-stateful pk-scroll-fade-x-controls flex overflow-x-auto snap-x scroll-px-3 snap-mandatory min-w-0 no-scrollbar h-12 pl-0 items-center w-full" data-scroll-fade-end="" data-scroll-fade-initial=""><a class="inline-flex cursor-pointer h-full items-center justify-center whitespace-nowrap rounded-md px-2.5 py-1 font-semibold ring-offset-white focus-visible:outline-none focus-visible:ring-2 focus-visible:ring-offset-2 disabled:pointer-events-none disabled:opacity-50 text-body-base gap-1.5 transition-colors duration-150 text-pk-content-secondary hover:text-pk-content-tertiary" href="/"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="18" height="18" viewBox="0 0 18 18"><path d="M1.75,12.25l3.646-3.646c.195-.195,.512-.195,.707,0l3.293,3.293c.195,.195,.512,.195,.707,0l6.146-6.146" fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" stroke-width="1.5" data-color="color-2"></path><polyline points="11.25 5.75 16.25 5.75 16.25 10.75" fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" stroke-width="1.5"></polyline></svg><span>Trending</span></a><a class="inline-flex cursor-pointer h-full items-center justify-center whitespace-nowrap rounded-md px-2.5 py-1 font-semibold ring-offset-white focus-visible:outline-none focus-visible:ring-2 focus-visible:ring-offset-2 disabled:pointer-events-none disabled:opacity-50 text-body-base gap-1.5 transition-colors duration-150 text-pk-content-secondary hover:text-pk-content-tertiary" href="/combos"><svg width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 20 20" fill="none" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" aria-label="Combos" role="img"><g clip-path="url(#_R_9bbi9arjabaivb_)"><path fill="currentColor" d="M9.875 3.28136C9.875 2.27721 10.9152 1.61255 11.8262 2.03233L17.0361 4.43663L17.1582 4.49815C17.7524 4.82627 18.1259 5.45387 18.126 6.13878V13.8595C18.1258 14.5443 17.7524 15.172 17.1582 15.5001L17.0361 15.5616L11.8262 17.9659L11.8252 17.965C10.9152 18.3844 9.87502 17.7206 9.875 16.7169V3.28136ZM5.875 5.00011C5.875 4.0195 6.87235 3.35332 7.77832 3.73058H7.7793L8.58691 4.06749C9.03286 4.25355 9.24362 4.76604 9.05762 5.21202C8.87154 5.65793 8.35905 5.86872 7.91309 5.68272L7.625 5.56163V14.4376L7.91309 14.3175C8.3591 14.1315 8.8716 14.3422 9.05762 14.7882C9.24361 15.2342 9.0329 15.7467 8.58691 15.9327L7.7793 16.2696H7.77832C6.87239 16.6469 5.87507 15.9807 5.875 15.0001V5.00011ZM11.625 16.131L16.3037 13.9728V13.9718C16.3467 13.952 16.3758 13.9084 16.376 13.8595V6.13878C16.3759 6.10193 16.3594 6.06809 16.333 6.04503L16.3037 6.0255L11.625 3.86632V16.131ZM1.875 6.94347C1.87535 6.00557 2.79419 5.34308 3.68457 5.63976L4.52734 5.92101C4.98528 6.0741 5.23265 6.56935 5.08008 7.02745C4.9271 7.48585 4.43105 7.73316 3.97266 7.58018L3.625 7.46397V12.5353L3.97266 12.42C4.43088 12.2672 4.92695 12.5147 5.08008 12.9728C5.23284 13.4309 4.98531 13.926 4.52734 14.0792L3.68457 14.3605C2.79406 14.6573 1.87513 13.9948 1.875 13.0567V6.94347Z"></path></g><defs><clipPath id="_R_9bbi9arjabaivb_"><rect width="18" height="18" fill="white" transform="translate(1 1)"></rect></clipPath></defs></svg><span>Combos</span></a><a class="inline-flex cursor-pointer h-full items-center justify-center whitespace-nowrap rounded-md px-2.5 py-1 font-semibold ring-offset-white focus-visible:outline-none focus-visible:ring-2 focus-visible:ring-offset-2 disabled:pointer-events-none disabled:opacity-50 text-body-base gap-1.5 transition-colors duration-150 text-pk-content-secondary hover:text-pk-content-tertiary" href="/perps"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="20" height="20" fill="none" viewBox="0 0 20 20" aria-hidden="true"><path fill="currentColor" d="M10 5.375c.483 0 .875.392.875.875v1.125H11c.76 0 1.375.616 1.375 1.375v4c0 .76-.616 1.375-1.375 1.375h-.125V17.5a.875.875 0 0 1-1.75 0v-3.375H9c-.76 0-1.375-.616-1.375-1.375v-4c0-.76.616-1.375 1.375-1.375h.125V6.25c0-.483.392-.875.875-.875M15.758 1c.483 0 .875.392.875.875v1h.117c.76 0 1.375.616 1.375 1.375v7.5c0 .76-.616 1.375-1.375 1.375h-.125v2.125a.875.875 0 0 1-1.75 0v-2.125h-.125c-.76 0-1.375-.616-1.375-1.375v-7.5c0-.76.616-1.375 1.375-1.375h.133v-1c0-.483.392-.875.875-.875M4.25 1.875c.483 0 .875.392.875.875v3.125h.125c.76 0 1.375.616 1.375 1.375v3.5c0 .76-.616 1.375-1.375 1.375h-.125v2.125a.875.875 0 0 1-1.75 0v-2.125H3.25c-.76 0-1.375-.616-1.375-1.375v-3.5c0-.76.616-1.375 1.375-1.375h.125V2.75c0-.483.392-.875.875-.875m5.125 10.5h1.25v-3.25h-1.25zm5.75-1h1.25v-6.75h-1.25zm-11.5-1h1.25v-2.75h-1.25z"></path></svg>Perps</a><a class="inline-flex cursor-pointer h-full items-center justify-center whitespace-nowrap rounded-md px-2.5 py-1 font-semibold ring-offset-white focus-visible:outline-none focus-visible:ring-2 focus-visible:ring-offset-2 disabled:pointer-events-none disabled:opacity-50 text-body-base gap-1.5 transition-colors duration-150 text-pk-content-secondary hover:text-pk-content-tertiary" href="/breaking">Breaking</a><a class="inline-flex cursor-pointer h-full items-center justify-center whitespace-nowrap rounded-md px-2.5 py-1 font-semibold ring-offset-white focus-visible:outline-none focus-visible:ring-2 focus-visible:ring-offset-2 disabled:pointer-events-none disabled:opacity-50 text-body-base gap-1.5 transition-colors duration-150 text-pk-content-secondary hover:text-pk-content-tertiary" href="/new">New</a><div class="hidden lg:flex h-3.5 w-0.5 rounded-full bg-pk-gray-200 mx-2 shrink-0"></div><a class="inline-flex cursor-pointer h-full items-center justify-center whitespace-nowrap rounded-md py-1 font-semibold ring-offset-white focus-visible:outline-none focus-visible:ring-2 focus-visible:ring-offset-2 disabled:pointer-events-none disabled:opacity-50 text-body-base gap-1.5 transition-colors duration-150 text-pk-content-secondary hover:text-pk-content-tertiary px-2.5" href="/politics"><span>Politics</span></a><a class="inline-flex cursor-pointer h-full items-center justify-center whitespace-nowrap rounded-md py-1 font-semibold ring-offset-white focus-visible:outline-none focus-visible:ring-2 focus-visible:ring-offset-2 disabled:pointer-events-none disabled:opacity-50 text-body-base gap-1.5 transition-colors duration-150 text-pk-content-secondary hover:text-pk-content-tertiary px-2.5" href="/sports/live"><span>Sports</span></a><a class="inline-flex cursor-pointer h-full items-center justify-center whitespace-nowrap rounded-md py-1 font-semibold ring-offset-white focus-visible:outline-none focus-visible:ring-2 focus-visible:ring-offset-2 disabled:pointer-events-none disabled:opacity-50 text-body-base gap-1.5 transition-colors duration-150 text-pk-content-secondary hover:text-pk-content-tertiary px-2.5" href="/crypto"><span>Crypto</span></a><a class="inline-flex cursor-pointer h-full items-center justify-center whitespace-nowrap rounded-md py-1 font-semibold ring-offset-white focus-visible:outline-none focus-visible:ring-2 focus-visible:ring-offset-2 disabled:pointer-events-none disabled:opacity-50 text-body-base gap-1.5 transition-colors duration-150 text-pk-content-secondary hover:text-pk-content-tertiary px-2.5" href="/esports"><span>Esports</span></a><a class="inline-flex cursor-pointer h-full items-center justify-center whitespace-nowrap rounded-md py-1 font-semibold ring-offset-white focus-visible:outline-none focus-visible:ring-2 focus-visible:ring-offset-2 disabled:pointer-events-none disabled:opacity-50 text-body-base gap-1.5 transition-colors duration-150 text-pk-content-secondary hover:text-pk-content-tertiary px-2.5" href="/iran"><span>Iran</span></a><a class="inline-flex cursor-pointer h-full items-center justify-center whitespace-nowrap rounded-md py-1 font-semibold ring-offset-white focus-visible:outline-none focus-visible:ring-2 focus-visible:ring-offset-2 disabled:pointer-events-none disabled:opacity-50 text-body-base gap-1.5 transition-colors duration-150 text-pk-content-secondary hover:text-pk-content-tertiary px-2.5" href="/finance"><span>Finance</span></a><a class="inline-flex cursor-pointer h-full items-center justify-center whitespace-nowrap rounded-md py-1 font-semibold ring-offset-white focus-visible:outline-none focus-visible:ring-2 focus-visible:ring-offset-2 disabled:pointer-events-none disabled:opacity-50 text-body-base gap-1.5 transition-colors duration-150 text-pk-content-secondary hover:text-pk-content-tertiary px-2.5" href="/geopolitics"><span>Geopolitics</span></a><a class="inline-flex cursor-pointer h-full items-center justify-center whitespace-nowrap rounded-md py-1 font-semibold ring-offset-white focus-visible:outline-none focus-visible:ring-2 focus-visible:ring-offset-2 disabled:pointer-events-none disabled:opacity-50 text-body-base gap-1.5 transition-colors duration-150 text-pk-content-secondary hover:text-pk-content-tertiary px-2.5" href="/tech"><span>Tech</span></a><a class="inline-flex cursor-pointer h-full items-center justify-center whitespace-nowrap rounded-md py-1 font-semibold ring-offset-white focus-visible:outline-none focus-visible:ring-2 focus-visible:ring-offset-2 disabled:pointer-events-none disabled:opacity-50 text-body-base gap-1.5 transition-colors duration-150 text-pk-content-secondary hover:text-pk-content-tertiary px-2.5" href="/pop-culture"><span>Culture</span></a><a class="inline-flex cursor-pointer h-full items-center justify-center whitespace-nowrap rounded-md py-1 font-semibold ring-offset-white focus-visible:outline-none focus-visible:ring-2 focus-visible:ring-offset-2 disabled:pointer-events-none disabled:opacity-50 text-body-base gap-1.5 transition-colors duration-150 text-pk-content-secondary hover:text-pk-content-tertiary px-2.5" href="/economy"><span>Economy</span></a><a class="inline-flex cursor-pointer h-full items-center justify-center whitespace-nowrap rounded-md py-1 font-semibold ring-offset-white focus-visible:outline-none focus-visible:ring-2 focus-visible:ring-offset-2 disabled:pointer-events-none disabled:opacity-50 text-body-base gap-1.5 transition-colors duration-150 text-pk-content-secondary hover:text-pk-content-tertiary px-2.5" href="/weather"><span>Weather</span></a><a class="inline-flex cursor-pointer h-full items-center justify-center whitespace-nowrap rounded-md py-1 font-semibold ring-offset-white focus-visible:outline-none focus-visible:ring-2 focus-visible:ring-offset-2 disabled:pointer-events-none disabled:opacity-50 text-body-base gap-1.5 transition-colors duration-150 text-pk-content-secondary hover:text-pk-content-tertiary px-2.5" href="/mentions"><span>Mentions</span></a><a class="inline-flex cursor-pointer h-full items-center justify-center whitespace-nowrap rounded-md py-1 font-semibold ring-offset-white focus-visible:outline-none focus-visible:ring-2 focus-visible:ring-offset-2 disabled:pointer-events-none disabled:opacity-50 text-body-base gap-1.5 transition-colors duration-150 text-pk-content-secondary hover:text-pk-content-tertiary px-2.5" href="/elections"><span>Elections</span></a><a class="inline-flex cursor-pointer h-full items-center justify-center whitespace-nowrap rounded-md py-1 font-semibold ring-offset-white focus-visible:outline-none focus-visible:ring-2 focus-visible:ring-offset-2 disabled:pointer-events-none disabled:opacity-50 text-body-base gap-1.5 transition-colors duration-150 text-pk-content-secondary hover:text-pk-content-tertiary px-2.5" href="/pop-culture/art"><span>Art</span></a><button type="button" id="radix-_R_4bbi9arjabaivb_" aria-haspopup="menu" aria-expanded="false" data-state="closed" data-slot="dropdown-menu-trigger" aria-label="Open more navigation links" class="group hover:text-pk-content-tertiary my-auto hidden lg:flex gap-1.5 font-medium rounded-md text-body-base text-pk-content-secondary cursor-pointer py-1 px-3 h-10 items-center outline-none transition-colors duration-150">More<svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="12px" height="12px" viewBox="0 0 12 12" class="transition-transform duration-200"><polyline points="1.75 4.25 6 8.5 10.25 4.25" fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" stroke-width="1.5"></polyline></svg></button></div><button type="button" data-polykit="true" data-slot="button" data-variant="ghost" data-size="icon-sm" data-corners="square" data-theme="default" class="items-center justify-center shrink-0 cursor-pointer select-none outline-none focus-visible:ring-2 focus-visible:ring-offset-2 focus-visible:ring-pk-content-secondary focus-visible:ring-offset-pk-surface font-semibold transition-[color,background-color,border-color,scale] duration-[120ms] ease-out active:scale-[0.98] disabled:pointer-events-none motion-reduce:transition-none motion-reduce:active:scale-100 [&amp;_svg]:pointer-events-none [&amp;_svg]:shrink-0 [&amp;_svg:not([class*=&#x27;size-&#x27;])]:size-5 group/button hover:bg-pk-hover-overlay-darker [&amp;_[data-slot=prefix]]:text-pk-gray-500 disabled:bg-transparent disabled:text-pk-content-tertiary disabled:[&amp;_[data-slot=prefix]]:text-pk-content-tertiary size-8 rounded-[10px] absolute right-1 top-1/2 z-[3] hidden -translate-y-1/2 text-pk-gray-500 before:absolute before:-inset-1 before:content-[&#x27;&#x27;] hover:text-pk-gray-900 lg:flex" aria-label="Scroll right"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="20" height="20" fill="none" viewBox="0 0 20 20" aria-hidden="true"><path fill="currentColor" d="M7.714 5.214a.877.877 0 0 1 1.238 0l4.166 4.167a.875.875 0 0 1 0 1.237l-4.166 4.167a.876.876 0 0 1-1.238-1.237l3.548-3.55-3.548-3.546a.877.877 0 0 1 0-1.238"></path></svg></button></div></div></div></div></nav><div class="us-geoblock-banner relative hidden lg:block"><div role="status" class="flex w-full flex-wrap items-center justify-center gap-x-2 gap-y-0.5 bg-pk-grouped px-5 py-2.5 text-center text-pk-content-primary"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="20" height="20" fill="none" viewBox="0 0 20 20" aria-hidden="true" class="shrink-0"><g fill="currentColor" fill-rule="evenodd" clip-rule="evenodd"><path d="M15.25 11c1.24 0 2.25 1.01 2.25 2.25v.775c.846.123 1.5.846 1.5 1.725v1.5c0 .965-.785 1.75-1.75 1.75h-4c-.965 0-1.75-.785-1.75-1.75v-1.5c0-.88.654-1.601 1.5-1.725v-.775c0-1.24 1.01-2.25 2.25-2.25m0 1.5a.75.75 0 0 0-.75.75V14H16v-.75a.75.75 0 0 0-.75-.75"></path><path d="M9.5 2a8 8 0 0 1 7.921 6.871.754.754 0 0 1-.979.825.76.76 0 0 1-.296-.185c-.409-.404-1.295-.855-2.536-1.204q-.22-.063-.45-.118.074.73.087 1.5a.75.75 0 0 1-1.499.025 16 16 0 0 0-.133-1.817A16 16 0 0 0 9.5 7.75c-.742 0-1.453.048-2.114.136A16 16 0 0 0 7.25 10c0 .741.048 1.452.136 2.114a16 16 0 0 0 2.941.115.75.75 0 0 1 .075 1.499 18 18 0 0 1-2.721-.069q.14.545.317 1.007c.228.599.488 1.059.75 1.373.256.308.476.432.635.468a.751.751 0 0 1-.174 1.488A8 8 0 0 1 9.5 2M3.522 12.555a6.53 6.53 0 0 0 3.416 3.42 8 8 0 0 1-.341-.775 12 12 0 0 1-.512-1.786 11.3 11.3 0 0 1-1.998-.6 8 8 0 0 1-.565-.26M5.84 8.183a9 9 0 0 0-1.18.388c-.603.25-1.04.527-1.316.797C3.07 9.636 3 9.85 3 10s.071.364.345.632c.276.27.713.548 1.315.797.352.146.748.276 1.18.388a18 18 0 0 1 0-3.634m1.104-4.161a6.52 6.52 0 0 0-3.423 3.423q.271-.138.565-.26c.59-.243 1.264-.446 2-.599.152-.735.355-1.41.599-1.999q.12-.294.26-.565m5.11 0q.113.22.215.459c.265.618.484 1.333.647 2.117q.571.116 1.1.264c.499.14.98.306 1.423.494a6.53 6.53 0 0 0-3.385-3.334M9.5 3.5c-.151 0-.364.071-.632.345-.27.276-.548.713-.797 1.315a9 9 0 0 0-.388 1.18A18 18 0 0 1 9.5 6.25c.61 0 1.221.035 1.82.1a9 9 0 0 0-.428-1.278c-.247-.573-.518-.988-.78-1.248-.258-.257-.464-.324-.612-.324"></path></g></svg><p class="text-body-sm">To trade in the US, go to <a href="https://polymarket.us/?signup=true&amp;referring_domain=polymarket.com&amp;referring_surface=banner" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" class="inline-flex items-center gap-0.5 font-medium underline underline-offset-2 hover:no-underline">polymarket.us<svg 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style="position:absolute;height:100%;width:100%;left:0;top:0;right:0;bottom:0;color:transparent" sizes="(max-width: 768px) 15vw, (max-width: 1400px) 10vw, 90px" srcSet="/_next/image?url=https%3A%2F%2Fpolymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com%2Ffed-decision-in-september-762-c4RyWuxRPo1L.jpg&amp;w=96&amp;q=75 96w, /_next/image?url=https%3A%2F%2Fpolymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com%2Ffed-decision-in-september-762-c4RyWuxRPo1L.jpg&amp;w=256&amp;q=75 256w, /_next/image?url=https%3A%2F%2Fpolymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com%2Ffed-decision-in-september-762-c4RyWuxRPo1L.jpg&amp;w=600&amp;q=75 600w, /_next/image?url=https%3A%2F%2Fpolymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com%2Ffed-decision-in-september-762-c4RyWuxRPo1L.jpg&amp;w=1024&amp;q=75 1024w" src="/_next/image?url=https%3A%2F%2Fpolymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com%2Ffed-decision-in-september-762-c4RyWuxRPo1L.jpg&amp;w=1024&amp;q=75"/></div></div><div class="flex flex-col items-start gap-1 min-w-0 flex-1"><div class="overflow-hidden transition-[max-height,opacity] duration-200 ease-out" style="max-height:24px;opacity:1"><div class="relative z-10 flex items-center gap-1 pointer-events-auto [&amp;_svg]:text-pk-content-secondary"><a class="inline-flex items-center cursor-pointer active:scale-[97%] transition duration-150 justify-center gap-2 whitespace-nowrap rounded-sm text-body-base font-semibold focus-visible:outline-none focus-visible:ring-1 focus-visible:ring-ring disabled:pointer-events-none disabled:opacity-50 [&amp;_svg]:pointer-events-none [&amp;_svg]:shrink-0 text-button-link-text hover:text-button-link-text-hover h-fit p-0 h-8 rounded-sm px-3 text-body-sm !px-0.5 first:!pl-0 text-pk-content-secondary hover:text-pk-content-tertiary text-sm !font-[540]" href="/politics">Politics</a><span class="text-pk-content-secondary">·</span><a class="inline-flex items-center cursor-pointer active:scale-[97%] transition duration-150 justify-center gap-2 whitespace-nowrap rounded-sm text-body-base font-semibold focus-visible:outline-none focus-visible:ring-1 focus-visible:ring-ring disabled:pointer-events-none disabled:opacity-50 [&amp;_svg]:pointer-events-none [&amp;_svg]:shrink-0 text-button-link-text hover:text-button-link-text-hover h-fit p-0 h-8 rounded-sm px-3 text-body-sm !px-0.5 first:!pl-0 text-pk-content-secondary hover:text-pk-content-tertiary text-sm !font-[540]" href="/predictions/fomc">Fomc</a></div></div><h1 class="!font-semibold text-heading-2xl text-pretty">Fed Decision in September?</h1></div></div><div class="flex gap-3 ml-4 items-center"><div class="overflow-hidden"><div class="flex gap-1 items-center"><button class="inline-flex items-center cursor-pointer active:scale-[97%] transition duration-150 justify-center gap-2 whitespace-nowrap text-body-base font-semibold focus-visible:outline-none focus-visible:ring-1 focus-visible:ring-ring disabled:pointer-events-none disabled:opacity-50 [&amp;_svg]:pointer-events-none [&amp;_svg]:shrink-0 bg-button-ghost-bg 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src="/_next/image?url=https%3A%2F%2Fpolymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com%2Ffed-decision-in-september-762-c4RyWuxRPo1L.jpg&amp;w=1024&amp;q=75"/></div></div></div><div class="flex-1 min-w-0 -mt-1" style="transform-origin:left center;transform:none"><div class="flex flex-col items-start gap-1"><div class="overflow-hidden transition-[max-height,opacity] duration-200 ease-out" style="max-height:24px;opacity:1"><div class="relative z-10 flex items-center gap-1 pointer-events-auto [&amp;_svg]:text-pk-content-secondary"><a class="inline-flex items-center cursor-pointer active:scale-[97%] transition duration-150 justify-center gap-2 whitespace-nowrap rounded-sm text-body-base font-semibold focus-visible:outline-none focus-visible:ring-1 focus-visible:ring-ring disabled:pointer-events-none disabled:opacity-50 [&amp;_svg]:pointer-events-none [&amp;_svg]:shrink-0 text-button-link-text hover:text-button-link-text-hover h-fit p-0 h-8 rounded-sm px-3 text-body-sm !px-0.5 first:!pl-0 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border-transparent cursor-pointer text-base font-bold min-h-[32px] leading-none bg-mix-1-pk-gray-100 hover:bg-mix-2-hover-darker"><div class="flex items-center gap-[9px]"><p class="font-semibold text-[13px] tracking-[-0.09px] whitespace-nowrap text-pk-content-primary">Jan 27, 2027</p></div></div></a></div></div><div class="fresnel-container fresnel-lessThan-lg fresnel-_R_igqt4ltcnpfmi9arjabaivb_ contents"><div class="w-[calc(100vw)] -translate-x-4"><div data-arrow-visibility="off" class="relative"><div class="pk-scroll-fade-x-stateful flex overflow-x-auto snap-x scroll-px-3 snap-mandatory min-w-0 no-scrollbar px-4 items-center" data-scroll-fade-initial=""><div class="flex gap-2 w-max lg:flex-wrap lg:w-auto"><button type="button" class="flex justify-center items-center gap-1.5 px-3 rounded-full border border-transparent bg-mix-1-pk-gray-100 h-8 min-h-[32px] leading-none hover:bg-mix-2-hover-darker cursor-pointer" aria-label="View past events" id="radix-_R_digqt4ltcnpfmi9arjabaivb_" aria-haspopup="menu" aria-expanded="false" data-state="closed" data-slot="dropdown-menu-trigger"><span class="font-semibold text-[13px] tracking-[-0.09px] text-pk-content-primary">Past</span><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="12px" height="12px" viewBox="0 0 12 12" class="text-pk-content-primary transition-transform duration-200"><polyline points="1.75 4.25 6 8.5 10.25 4.25" fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" stroke-width="1.5"></polyline></svg></button><a href="/event/fed-decision-in-september-762"><div class="flex justify-center items-center px-3 h-8 rounded-full border border-transparent cursor-pointer text-base font-bold min-h-[32px] leading-none bg-pk-gray-900"><div class="flex items-center gap-[9px]"><p class="font-semibold text-[13px] tracking-[-0.09px] whitespace-nowrap text-pk-content-inverted">Sep 16</p></div></div></a><a href="/event/fed-decision-in-october-20260617190323537"><div class="flex justify-center items-center px-3 h-8 rounded-full border border-transparent cursor-pointer text-base font-bold min-h-[32px] leading-none bg-mix-1-pk-gray-100 hover:bg-mix-2-hover-darker"><div class="flex items-center gap-[9px]"><p class="font-semibold text-[13px] tracking-[-0.09px] whitespace-nowrap text-pk-content-primary">Oct 28</p></div></div></a><a href="/event/fed-decision-in-december-20260729232808632"><div class="flex justify-center items-center px-3 h-8 rounded-full border border-transparent cursor-pointer text-base font-bold min-h-[32px] leading-none bg-mix-1-pk-gray-100 hover:bg-mix-2-hover-darker"><div class="flex items-center gap-[9px]"><p class="font-semibold text-[13px] tracking-[-0.09px] whitespace-nowrap text-pk-content-primary">Dec 9</p></div></div></a><a href="/event/fed-decision-in-january-20260729233815502"><div class="flex justify-center items-center px-3 h-8 rounded-full border border-transparent cursor-pointer text-base font-bold min-h-[32px] leading-none bg-mix-1-pk-gray-100 hover:bg-mix-2-hover-darker"><div class="flex items-center gap-[9px]"><p class="font-semibold text-[13px] tracking-[-0.09px] whitespace-nowrap text-pk-content-primary">Jan 27, 2027</p></div></div></a></div></div></div></div></div></div><div class="max-lg:flex max-lg:flex-col max-lg:justify-center max-lg:items-center"><div class="fresnel-container fresnel-greaterThanOrEqual-lg fresnel-_R_2oqt4ltcnpfmi9arjabaivb_ contents"><div class="flex w-full flex-col"><div class="flex items-center justify-end gap-2"></div><div class="overflow-visible relative"><div class="flex h-auto w-full flex-col"><div class="mt-1.5"><div class="flex w-full gap-3"><div class="flex w-full gap-3"><div class="flex flex-col w-full gap-3 justify-center" style="height:auto"><div class="flex flex-col items-start gap-y-1 sm:flex-row sm:items-center sm:gap-x-3 sm:flex-wrap"><div class="flex items-center gap-1.5 whitespace-nowrap" style="opacity:1"><div class="size-2 rounded-full" style="background-color:var(--legend-color);--legend-color:#87BFFF"></div><p class="text-pk-content-secondary text-body-sm">25 bps increase<span class="text-pk-gray-800 font-semibold ml-0.5"> <!-- -->52%</span></p></div><div class="flex items-center gap-1.5 whitespace-nowrap" style="opacity:1"><div class="size-2 rounded-full" style="background-color:var(--legend-color);--legend-color:#4378FF"></div><p class="text-pk-content-secondary text-body-sm">No change<span class="text-pk-gray-800 font-semibold ml-0.5"> <!-- -->49%</span></p></div><div class="flex items-center gap-1.5 whitespace-nowrap" style="opacity:1"><div class="size-2 rounded-full" style="background-color:var(--legend-color);--legend-color:#FDC503"></div><p class="text-pk-content-secondary text-body-sm">50+ bps increase<span class="text-pk-gray-800 font-semibold ml-0.5"> <!-- -->&lt;1%</span></p></div><div class="flex items-center gap-1.5 whitespace-nowrap" style="opacity:1"><div class="size-2 rounded-full" style="background-color:var(--legend-color);--legend-color:#FF7F0E"></div><p class="text-pk-content-secondary text-body-sm">25 bps decrease<span class="text-pk-gray-800 font-semibold ml-0.5"> <!-- -->&lt;1%</span></p></div></div></div></div><div class="ml-auto self-end max-lg:hidden"><svg viewBox="0 0 911 168" fill="none" role="img" aria-labelledby="polymarket-logo-title" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" class="max-[400px]:w-auto h-6 w-auto text-pk-content-secondary [&amp;_path]:fill-pk-gray-300"><title id="polymarket-logo-title">Polymarket</title><path fill-rule="evenodd" clip-rule="evenodd" d="M395.676 132.183V29.2346H378.683V132.183H395.676ZM228.862 96.1278V132.186H211.188V34.6007H249.334C256.841 34.6007 263.335 35.93 268.817 38.5885C274.299 41.247 278.474 44.9332 281.34 49.6475C284.206 54.3613 285.639 59.7346 285.639 65.7666C285.639 72.0667 284.217 77.4955 281.374 82.053C278.53 86.6104 274.391 90.0957 268.954 92.5088C263.517 94.9218 256.978 96.1278 249.334 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class="flex items-center gap-1.5"><button type="button" class="flex items-center text-pk-content-primary" aria-haspopup="dialog" aria-expanded="false" aria-controls="radix-_R_klm8qoqt4ltcnpfmi9arjabaivb_" data-state="closed" data-slot="popover-trigger"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="14" height="14" viewBox="0 0 18 18"><path d="M9.5 11.75C9.5 11.75 9.5 14.688 13.25 15.75H4.75C8.5 14.688 8.5 11.75 8.5 11.75" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="1.5" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" data-color="color-2" fill="none"></path><path d="M5.286 9C1.469 9 1.74999 3.75 1.74999 3.75H4.42949" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="1.5" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" data-color="color-2" fill="none"></path><path d="M12.714 9C16.532 9 16.25 3.75 16.25 3.75H13.5705" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="1.5" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" data-color="color-2" fill="none"></path><path d="M13.75 2.25C13.1562 8.159 11.583 11.4958 9.23749 11.75H8.76251C6.41701 11.4958 4.8438 8.159 4.25 2.25H13.75Z" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="1.5" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" fill="none"></path></svg></button><p class="text-pk-content-primary text-[13px] tracking-[-0.09px] font-medium whitespace-nowrap">$103,449,144<!-- --> <!-- -->Vol.</p></div></div></div><div class="flex items-center"><div class="flex w-fit items-start z-2"><div dir="ltr" data-orientation="horizontal"><div class="relative"><div role="tablist" aria-orientation="horizontal" class="relative inline-flex h-9 justify-center text-zinc-500 group bg-transparent z-3 font-medium items-start overflow-hidden p-0" aria-label="Select chart window" tabindex="-1" data-orientation="horizontal" style="outline:none"><button type="button" role="tab" aria-selected="false" aria-controls="radix-_R_15m8qoqt4ltcnpfmi9arjabaivb_-content-1h" data-state="inactive" id="radix-_R_15m8qoqt4ltcnpfmi9arjabaivb_-trigger-1h" class="z-1 inline-flex cursor-pointer h-full items-center justify-center whitespace-nowrap rounded-md py-1 ring-offset-pk-surface focus-visible:outline-none focus-visible:ring-2 focus-visible:ring-offset-2 disabled:pointer-events-none disabled:opacity-50 text-tabs-text hover:text-tabs-text-hover uppercase text-body-base font-semibold px-1.5 data-[state=active]:text-tabs-text" tabindex="-1" data-orientation="horizontal" data-radix-collection-item="">1H</button><button type="button" role="tab" aria-selected="false" aria-controls="radix-_R_15m8qoqt4ltcnpfmi9arjabaivb_-content-1d" data-state="inactive" id="radix-_R_15m8qoqt4ltcnpfmi9arjabaivb_-trigger-1d" class="z-1 inline-flex cursor-pointer h-full items-center justify-center whitespace-nowrap rounded-md py-1 ring-offset-pk-surface focus-visible:outline-none focus-visible:ring-2 focus-visible:ring-offset-2 disabled:pointer-events-none disabled:opacity-50 text-tabs-text hover:text-tabs-text-hover uppercase text-body-base font-semibold px-1.5 data-[state=active]:text-tabs-text" tabindex="-1" data-orientation="horizontal" data-radix-collection-item="">1D</button><button type="button" role="tab" aria-selected="false" aria-controls="radix-_R_15m8qoqt4ltcnpfmi9arjabaivb_-content-1w" data-state="inactive" id="radix-_R_15m8qoqt4ltcnpfmi9arjabaivb_-trigger-1w" class="z-1 inline-flex cursor-pointer h-full items-center justify-center whitespace-nowrap rounded-md py-1 ring-offset-pk-surface focus-visible:outline-none focus-visible:ring-2 focus-visible:ring-offset-2 disabled:pointer-events-none disabled:opacity-50 text-tabs-text hover:text-tabs-text-hover uppercase text-body-base font-semibold px-1.5 data-[state=active]:text-tabs-text" tabindex="-1" data-orientation="horizontal" data-radix-collection-item="">1W</button><button type="button" role="tab" aria-selected="false" aria-controls="radix-_R_15m8qoqt4ltcnpfmi9arjabaivb_-content-1m" data-state="inactive" id="radix-_R_15m8qoqt4ltcnpfmi9arjabaivb_-trigger-1m" class="z-1 inline-flex cursor-pointer h-full items-center justify-center whitespace-nowrap rounded-md py-1 ring-offset-pk-surface focus-visible:outline-none focus-visible:ring-2 focus-visible:ring-offset-2 disabled:pointer-events-none disabled:opacity-50 text-tabs-text hover:text-tabs-text-hover uppercase text-body-base font-semibold px-1.5 data-[state=active]:text-tabs-text" tabindex="-1" data-orientation="horizontal" data-radix-collection-item="">1M</button><button type="button" role="tab" aria-selected="false" aria-controls="radix-_R_15m8qoqt4ltcnpfmi9arjabaivb_-content-all" data-state="inactive" id="radix-_R_15m8qoqt4ltcnpfmi9arjabaivb_-trigger-all" class="z-1 inline-flex cursor-pointer h-full items-center justify-center whitespace-nowrap rounded-md py-1 ring-offset-pk-surface focus-visible:outline-none focus-visible:ring-2 focus-visible:ring-offset-2 disabled:pointer-events-none disabled:opacity-50 text-tabs-text hover:text-tabs-text-hover uppercase text-body-base font-semibold px-1.5 data-[state=active]:text-tabs-text" tabindex="-1" data-orientation="horizontal" data-radix-collection-item="">Max</button></div><div class="absolute pointer-events-none selection-indicator-transition h-7" style="transform:translateX(calc(0px + 0px));width:calc(0px - 0px);transform-origin:center;opacity:0;--selection-indicator-position-duration:0ms;--selection-indicator-opacity-duration:0ms"></div></div></div></div></div><div class="flex items-center gap-3.5"><button type="button" class="text-pk-content-secondary hover:text-pk-content-primary cursor-pointer"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="18px" height="18px" viewBox="0 0 18 18"><path d="M9 11.2495C10.2426 11.2495 11.25 10.2422 11.25 8.99951C11.25 7.75687 10.2426 6.74951 9 6.74951C7.75736 6.74951 6.75 7.75687 6.75 8.99951C6.75 10.2422 7.75736 11.2495 9 11.2495Z" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="1.5" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" data-color="color-2" fill="none"></path><path d="M16.25 9.35449V8.6445C16.25 8.1345 15.867 7.70651 15.36 7.65051L14.266 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13.8765C14.738 13.5165 14.77 12.9425 14.452 12.5445L13.765 11.6855L14.268 10.4715L15.362 10.3495C15.868 10.2935 16.252 9.8655 16.252 9.3555L16.25 9.35449Z" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="1.5" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" fill="none"></path></svg></button></div></div></div><div class="hidden lg:flex w-full items-center justify-between"><div class="flex gap-x-2.5 items-center"><div class="flex items-center gap-1.5"><button type="button" class="flex items-center text-pk-content-primary" aria-haspopup="dialog" aria-expanded="false" aria-controls="radix-_R_kpm8qoqt4ltcnpfmi9arjabaivb_" data-state="closed" data-slot="popover-trigger"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="14" height="14" viewBox="0 0 18 18"><path d="M9.5 11.75C9.5 11.75 9.5 14.688 13.25 15.75H4.75C8.5 14.688 8.5 11.75 8.5 11.75" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="1.5" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" data-color="color-2" fill="none"></path><path d="M5.286 9C1.469 9 1.74999 3.75 1.74999 3.75H4.42949" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="1.5" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" data-color="color-2" fill="none"></path><path d="M12.714 9C16.532 9 16.25 3.75 16.25 3.75H13.5705" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="1.5" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" data-color="color-2" fill="none"></path><path d="M13.75 2.25C13.1562 8.159 11.583 11.4958 9.23749 11.75H8.76251C6.41701 11.4958 4.8438 8.159 4.25 2.25H13.75Z" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="1.5" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" fill="none"></path></svg></button><p class="text-pk-content-primary text-[13px] tracking-[-0.09px] font-medium whitespace-nowrap">$103,449,144<!-- --> <!-- -->Vol.</p></div><div class="w-[1.5px] h-[10px] bg-pk-gray-200 rounded-full shrink-0"></div><div class="text-[13px] tracking-[-0.09px] font-medium text-pk-content-secondary gap-1.5 whitespace-nowrap flex items-center md:mr-1" data-state="closed" data-slot="tooltip-trigger"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="12px" height="12px" viewBox="0 0 12 12"><circle cx="6" cy="6" r="5.25" fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" stroke-width="1.5"></circle><path d="m6,3.25v2.75l2,1.75" fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" stroke-width="1.5" data-color="color-2"></path></svg><span>Sep 15, 2026</span></div></div><div class="flex items-center gap-1 ml-auto"><div class="flex w-fit items-start z-2"><div dir="ltr" data-orientation="horizontal"><div class="relative"><div role="tablist" aria-orientation="horizontal" class="relative inline-flex h-9 justify-center text-zinc-500 group bg-transparent z-3 font-medium items-start overflow-hidden p-0" aria-label="Select chart window" tabindex="-1" data-orientation="horizontal" style="outline:none"><button type="button" role="tab" aria-selected="false" aria-controls="radix-_R_39m8qoqt4ltcnpfmi9arjabaivb_-content-1h" data-state="inactive" id="radix-_R_39m8qoqt4ltcnpfmi9arjabaivb_-trigger-1h" class="z-1 inline-flex cursor-pointer h-full items-center justify-center whitespace-nowrap rounded-md py-1 ring-offset-pk-surface focus-visible:outline-none focus-visible:ring-2 focus-visible:ring-offset-2 disabled:pointer-events-none disabled:opacity-50 text-tabs-text hover:text-tabs-text-hover uppercase text-body-base font-semibold px-1.5 data-[state=active]:text-tabs-text" tabindex="-1" data-orientation="horizontal" data-radix-collection-item="">1H</button><button type="button" role="tab" aria-selected="false" aria-controls="radix-_R_39m8qoqt4ltcnpfmi9arjabaivb_-content-6h" data-state="inactive" id="radix-_R_39m8qoqt4ltcnpfmi9arjabaivb_-trigger-6h" class="z-1 inline-flex cursor-pointer h-full items-center justify-center whitespace-nowrap rounded-md py-1 ring-offset-pk-surface focus-visible:outline-none focus-visible:ring-2 focus-visible:ring-offset-2 disabled:pointer-events-none disabled:opacity-50 text-tabs-text hover:text-tabs-text-hover uppercase text-body-base font-semibold px-1.5 data-[state=active]:text-tabs-text" tabindex="-1" data-orientation="horizontal" data-radix-collection-item="">6H</button><button type="button" role="tab" aria-selected="false" aria-controls="radix-_R_39m8qoqt4ltcnpfmi9arjabaivb_-content-1d" data-state="inactive" id="radix-_R_39m8qoqt4ltcnpfmi9arjabaivb_-trigger-1d" class="z-1 inline-flex cursor-pointer h-full items-center justify-center whitespace-nowrap rounded-md py-1 ring-offset-pk-surface focus-visible:outline-none focus-visible:ring-2 focus-visible:ring-offset-2 disabled:pointer-events-none disabled:opacity-50 text-tabs-text hover:text-tabs-text-hover uppercase text-body-base font-semibold px-1.5 data-[state=active]:text-tabs-text" tabindex="-1" data-orientation="horizontal" data-radix-collection-item="">1D</button><button type="button" role="tab" aria-selected="false" aria-controls="radix-_R_39m8qoqt4ltcnpfmi9arjabaivb_-content-1w" data-state="inactive" id="radix-_R_39m8qoqt4ltcnpfmi9arjabaivb_-trigger-1w" class="z-1 inline-flex cursor-pointer h-full items-center justify-center whitespace-nowrap rounded-md py-1 ring-offset-pk-surface focus-visible:outline-none focus-visible:ring-2 focus-visible:ring-offset-2 disabled:pointer-events-none disabled:opacity-50 text-tabs-text hover:text-tabs-text-hover uppercase text-body-base font-semibold px-1.5 data-[state=active]:text-tabs-text" tabindex="-1" data-orientation="horizontal" data-radix-collection-item="">1W</button><button type="button" role="tab" aria-selected="false" aria-controls="radix-_R_39m8qoqt4ltcnpfmi9arjabaivb_-content-1m" data-state="inactive" id="radix-_R_39m8qoqt4ltcnpfmi9arjabaivb_-trigger-1m" class="z-1 inline-flex cursor-pointer h-full items-center justify-center whitespace-nowrap rounded-md py-1 ring-offset-pk-surface focus-visible:outline-none focus-visible:ring-2 focus-visible:ring-offset-2 disabled:pointer-events-none disabled:opacity-50 text-tabs-text hover:text-tabs-text-hover uppercase text-body-base font-semibold px-1.5 data-[state=active]:text-tabs-text" tabindex="-1" data-orientation="horizontal" data-radix-collection-item="">1M</button><button type="button" role="tab" aria-selected="false" aria-controls="radix-_R_39m8qoqt4ltcnpfmi9arjabaivb_-content-all" data-state="inactive" id="radix-_R_39m8qoqt4ltcnpfmi9arjabaivb_-trigger-all" class="z-1 inline-flex cursor-pointer h-full items-center justify-center whitespace-nowrap rounded-md py-1 ring-offset-pk-surface focus-visible:outline-none focus-visible:ring-2 focus-visible:ring-offset-2 disabled:pointer-events-none disabled:opacity-50 text-tabs-text hover:text-tabs-text-hover uppercase text-body-base font-semibold px-1.5 data-[state=active]:text-tabs-text" tabindex="-1" data-orientation="horizontal" data-radix-collection-item="">ALL</button></div><div class="absolute pointer-events-none selection-indicator-transition h-7" style="transform:translateX(calc(0px + 0px));width:calc(0px - 0px);transform-origin:center;opacity:0;--selection-indicator-position-duration:0ms;--selection-indicator-opacity-duration:0ms"></div></div></div></div><div class="ml-1 flex items-center gap-3"><div class="overflow-hidden flex items-center mt-1" style="opacity:1;width:auto"><button type="button" class="hover:text-pk-content-primary cursor-pointer text-pk-content-secondary" id="radix-_R_nd9m8qoqt4ltcnpfmi9arjabaivb_" aria-haspopup="menu" aria-expanded="false" data-state="closed" data-slot="dropdown-menu-trigger"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="18px" height="18px" viewBox="0 0 18 18"><polyline points="10.25 12.75 12.75 15.25 15.25 12.75" fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" stroke-width="1.5" data-color="color-2"></polyline><line x1="12.75" y1="15.25" x2="12.75" y2="6.25" fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" stroke-width="1.5" data-color="color-2"></line><line x1="2.75" y1="9.75" x2="9.25" y2="9.75" fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" stroke-width="1.5"></line><line x1="2.75" y1="6.25" x2="9.25" y2="6.25" fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" stroke-width="1.5"></line><line x1="2.75" y1="2.75" x2="12.75" y2="2.75" fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" stroke-width="1.5"></line></svg></button></div><button type="button" class="hover:text-pk-content-primary cursor-pointer text-pk-content-secondary" id="radix-_R_t9m8qoqt4ltcnpfmi9arjabaivb_" aria-haspopup="menu" aria-expanded="false" data-state="closed" data-slot="dropdown-menu-trigger"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="18px" height="18px" viewBox="0 0 18 18"><path d="M9 11.2495C10.2426 11.2495 11.25 10.2422 11.25 8.99951C11.25 7.75687 10.2426 6.74951 9 6.74951C7.75736 6.74951 6.75 7.75687 6.75 8.99951C6.75 10.2422 7.75736 11.2495 9 11.2495Z" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="1.5" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" data-color="color-2" fill="none"></path><path d="M16.25 9.35449V8.6445C16.25 8.1345 15.867 7.70651 15.36 7.65051L14.266 7.5285L13.763 6.31451L14.451 5.45551C14.769 5.05751 14.738 4.4845 14.377 4.1235L13.875 3.62149C13.515 3.26149 12.941 3.22949 12.543 3.54749L11.684 4.2355L10.47 3.73251L10.348 2.63849C10.292 2.13249 9.86405 1.7485 9.35405 1.7485H8.64405C8.13405 1.7485 7.70605 2.13149 7.65005 2.63849L7.52805 3.73251L6.31404 4.2355L5.45505 3.54849C5.05705 3.23049 4.48405 3.2615 4.12305 3.6225L3.62104 4.12451C3.26104 4.48451 3.22905 5.05851 3.54705 5.45651L4.23505 6.31549L3.73204 7.52951L2.63805 7.65149C2.13205 7.70749 1.74805 8.13551 1.74805 8.64551V9.3555C1.74805 9.8655 2.13105 10.2935 2.63805 10.3495L3.73204 10.4715L4.23505 11.6855L3.54805 12.5445C3.23005 12.9425 3.26105 13.5165 3.62205 13.8765L4.12405 14.3785C4.48405 14.7385 5.05805 14.7705 5.45605 14.4525L6.31504 13.7645L7.52905 14.2675L7.65105 15.3615C7.70705 15.8675 8.13505 16.2515 8.64505 16.2515H9.35505C9.86505 16.2515 10.293 15.8685 10.349 15.3615L10.471 14.2675L11.685 13.7645L12.544 14.4525C12.942 14.7705 13.515 14.7395 13.876 14.3785L14.378 13.8765C14.738 13.5165 14.77 12.9425 14.452 12.5445L13.765 11.6855L14.268 10.4715L15.362 10.3495C15.868 10.2935 16.252 9.8655 16.252 9.3555L16.25 9.35449Z" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="1.5" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" fill="none"></path></svg></button></div></div></div></div></div><div class="fresnel-container fresnel-lessThan-lg fresnel-_R_268qoqt4ltcnpfmi9arjabaivb_ contents"></div><div class="fresnel-container fresnel-lessThan-lg fresnel-_R_2m8qoqt4ltcnpfmi9arjabaivb_ contents"></div></div><div class="absolute z-10 pointer-events-none bottom-20 left-1 md:left-2.5"></div></div><div class="border-t border-pk-border mt-3" data-orientation="vertical"><div data-state="closed" data-orientation="vertical" data-scroll-anchor="event-detail-accordion-item-2252242-will-the-fed-decrease-interest-rates-by-50-bps-after-the-september-2026-meeting-863" class="[&amp;+&amp;]:border-t [&amp;+&amp;]:border-pk-border"><div class="flex items-center justify-between flex-1 w-full bg-pk-surface font-medium text-base leading-none text-pk-content-primary cursor-pointer transition-all duration-200" data-orientation="vertical" data-state="closed"><div class="w-full flex flex-col transition py-3 gap-3 overflow-visible relative group cursor-pointer" type="button" aria-controls="radix-_R_pcqoqt4ltcnpfmi9arjabaivb_" aria-expanded="false" data-state="closed" data-orientation="vertical" id="radix-_R_9cqoqt4ltcnpfmi9arjabaivb_" data-radix-collection-item=""><div class="absolute -top-px -bottom-px group-hover:bg-pk-hover-overlay-darker -left-3 -right-3 rounded-md"></div><div class="w-full flex flex-row justify-between min-h-12 z-1"><div class="flex items-center gap-4 w-full flex-3 z-1"><div class="flex flex-1 items-start justify-between min-w-0"><div class="flex flex-col gap-y-1"><div class="overflow-hidden text-ellipsis whitespace-nowrap max-w-[280px]"><p class="overflow-hidden whitespace-nowrap text-ellipsis font-semibold text-heading-lg max-w-[400px] min-[1024px]:max-[1050px]:max-w-[170px] min-[1050px]:max-[1080px]:max-w-[200px] min-[1080px]:max-[1140px]:max-w-[230px] min-[1140px]:max-[1220px]:max-w-[320px]">50+ bps decrease</p></div><div class="flex items-center gap-1.5 min-h-5 [&amp;_button]:size-5"><p class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-secondary whitespace-nowrap leading-none">$13,841,456<!-- --> <!-- -->Vol.</p></div></div></div></div><div class="flex items-center justify-center flex-1 z-10 relative @container"><div class="relative"><p class="font-semibold text-heading-2xl text-[28px] text-pk-content-primary" style="opacity:0.25">&lt;1%</p><div class="absolute left-[calc(100%+0.325rem)] top-1/2 -translate-y-1/2 hidden @[110px]:block"></div></div></div><div class="flex justify-end items-center gap-2 flex-3 z-1"><button class="inline-flex items-center transition duration-150 justify-center whitespace-nowrap text-body-base focus-visible:outline-none focus-visible:ring-1 focus-visible:ring-ring disabled:pointer-events-none disabled:opacity-50 [&amp;_svg]:pointer-events-none [&amp;_svg]:shrink-0 bg-pk-green-600 dark:bg-pk-green-400 text-white active:scale-100 px-4 py-2 h-12 gap-1 w-[136px] rounded-sm cursor-pointer font-semibold" data-active="true"><span class="flex items-center gap-1 min-w-0 w-fit"><span class="min-w-0 truncate opacity-80 capitalize">Buy<!-- --> <!-- -->Yes</span><span class="shrink-0 text-base">0.2¢</span></span></button><button class="inline-flex items-center duration-150 justify-center whitespace-nowrap text-body-base focus-visible:outline-none focus-visible:ring-1 focus-visible:ring-ring disabled:pointer-events-none disabled:opacity-50 [&amp;_svg]:pointer-events-none [&amp;_svg]:shrink-0 bg-pk-red-500/9 dark:bg-pk-red-500/15 text-pk-red-500 hover:bg-pk-red-500/13 dark:hover:bg-pk-red-500/25 active:scale-100 transition px-4 py-2 h-12 gap-1 w-[136px] rounded-sm cursor-pointer font-semibold" data-active="false"><span class="flex items-center gap-1 min-w-0 w-fit"><span class="min-w-0 truncate opacity-80 capitalize">Buy<!-- --> <!-- -->No</span><span class="shrink-0 text-base">99.9¢</span></span></button></div></div></div></div><div data-state="closed" id="radix-_R_pcqoqt4ltcnpfmi9arjabaivb_" hidden="" role="region" aria-labelledby="radix-_R_9cqoqt4ltcnpfmi9arjabaivb_" data-orientation="vertical" class="overflow-hidden text-base text-pk-content-primary bg-pk-surface data-[state=open]:animate-accordionSlideDown data-[state=closed]:animate-accordionSlideUp" style="--radix-accordion-content-height:var(--radix-collapsible-content-height);--radix-accordion-content-width:var(--radix-collapsible-content-width)"></div></div><div data-state="closed" data-orientation="vertical" data-scroll-anchor="event-detail-accordion-item-2252243-will-the-fed-decrease-interest-rates-by-25-bps-after-the-september-2026-meeting-586" class="[&amp;+&amp;]:border-t [&amp;+&amp;]:border-pk-border"><div class="flex items-center justify-between flex-1 w-full bg-pk-surface font-medium text-base leading-none text-pk-content-primary cursor-pointer transition-all duration-200" data-orientation="vertical" data-state="closed"><div class="w-full flex flex-col transition py-3 gap-3 overflow-visible relative group cursor-pointer" type="button" aria-controls="radix-_R_qcqoqt4ltcnpfmi9arjabaivb_" aria-expanded="false" data-state="closed" data-orientation="vertical" id="radix-_R_acqoqt4ltcnpfmi9arjabaivb_" data-radix-collection-item=""><div class="absolute -top-px -bottom-px group-hover:bg-pk-hover-overlay-darker -left-3 -right-3 rounded-md"></div><div class="w-full flex flex-row justify-between min-h-12 z-1"><div class="flex items-center gap-4 w-full flex-3 z-1"><div class="flex flex-1 items-start justify-between min-w-0"><div class="flex flex-col gap-y-1"><div class="overflow-hidden text-ellipsis whitespace-nowrap max-w-[280px]"><p class="overflow-hidden whitespace-nowrap text-ellipsis font-semibold text-heading-lg max-w-[400px] min-[1024px]:max-[1050px]:max-w-[170px] min-[1050px]:max-[1080px]:max-w-[200px] min-[1080px]:max-[1140px]:max-w-[230px] min-[1140px]:max-[1220px]:max-w-[320px]">25 bps decrease</p></div><div class="flex items-center gap-1.5 min-h-5 [&amp;_button]:size-5"><p class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-secondary whitespace-nowrap leading-none">$32,272,951<!-- --> <!-- -->Vol.</p></div></div></div></div><div class="flex items-center justify-center flex-1 z-10 relative @container"><div class="relative"><p class="font-semibold text-heading-2xl text-[28px] text-pk-content-primary" style="opacity:0.25">&lt;1%</p><div class="absolute left-[calc(100%+0.325rem)] top-1/2 -translate-y-1/2 hidden @[110px]:block"></div></div></div><div class="flex justify-end items-center gap-2 flex-3 z-1"><button class="inline-flex items-center duration-150 justify-center whitespace-nowrap text-body-base focus-visible:outline-none focus-visible:ring-1 focus-visible:ring-ring disabled:pointer-events-none disabled:opacity-50 [&amp;_svg]:pointer-events-none [&amp;_svg]:shrink-0 bg-pk-green-500/15 dark:text-pk-green-500 hover:bg-pk-green-500/25 text-pk-green-600 active:scale-100 transition px-4 py-2 h-12 gap-1 w-[136px] rounded-sm cursor-pointer font-semibold" data-active="false"><span class="flex items-center gap-1 min-w-0 w-fit"><span class="min-w-0 truncate opacity-80 capitalize">Buy<!-- --> <!-- -->Yes</span><span class="shrink-0 text-base">0.5¢</span></span></button><button class="inline-flex items-center duration-150 justify-center whitespace-nowrap text-body-base focus-visible:outline-none focus-visible:ring-1 focus-visible:ring-ring disabled:pointer-events-none disabled:opacity-50 [&amp;_svg]:pointer-events-none [&amp;_svg]:shrink-0 bg-pk-red-500/9 dark:bg-pk-red-500/15 text-pk-red-500 hover:bg-pk-red-500/13 dark:hover:bg-pk-red-500/25 active:scale-100 transition px-4 py-2 h-12 gap-1 w-[136px] rounded-sm cursor-pointer font-semibold" data-active="false"><span class="flex items-center gap-1 min-w-0 w-fit"><span class="min-w-0 truncate opacity-80 capitalize">Buy<!-- --> <!-- -->No</span><span class="shrink-0 text-base">99.6¢</span></span></button></div></div></div></div><div data-state="closed" id="radix-_R_qcqoqt4ltcnpfmi9arjabaivb_" hidden="" role="region" aria-labelledby="radix-_R_acqoqt4ltcnpfmi9arjabaivb_" data-orientation="vertical" class="overflow-hidden text-base text-pk-content-primary bg-pk-surface data-[state=open]:animate-accordionSlideDown data-[state=closed]:animate-accordionSlideUp" style="--radix-accordion-content-height:var(--radix-collapsible-content-height);--radix-accordion-content-width:var(--radix-collapsible-content-width)"></div></div><div data-state="closed" data-orientation="vertical" data-scroll-anchor="event-detail-accordion-item-2252244-will-there-be-no-change-in-fed-interest-rates-after-the-september-2026-meeting-615" class="[&amp;+&amp;]:border-t [&amp;+&amp;]:border-pk-border"><div class="flex items-center justify-between flex-1 w-full bg-pk-surface font-medium text-base leading-none text-pk-content-primary cursor-pointer transition-all duration-200" data-orientation="vertical" data-state="closed"><div class="w-full flex flex-col transition py-3 gap-3 overflow-visible relative group cursor-pointer" type="button" aria-controls="radix-_R_rcqoqt4ltcnpfmi9arjabaivb_" aria-expanded="false" data-state="closed" data-orientation="vertical" id="radix-_R_bcqoqt4ltcnpfmi9arjabaivb_" data-radix-collection-item=""><div class="absolute -top-px -bottom-px group-hover:bg-pk-hover-overlay-darker -left-3 -right-3 rounded-md"></div><div class="w-full flex flex-row justify-between min-h-12 z-1"><div class="flex items-center gap-4 w-full flex-3 z-1"><div class="flex flex-1 items-start justify-between min-w-0"><div class="flex flex-col gap-y-1"><div class="overflow-hidden text-ellipsis whitespace-nowrap max-w-[280px]"><p class="overflow-hidden whitespace-nowrap text-ellipsis font-semibold text-heading-lg max-w-[400px] min-[1024px]:max-[1050px]:max-w-[170px] min-[1050px]:max-[1080px]:max-w-[200px] min-[1080px]:max-[1140px]:max-w-[230px] min-[1140px]:max-[1220px]:max-w-[320px]">No change</p></div><div class="flex items-center gap-1.5 min-h-5 [&amp;_button]:size-5"><p class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-secondary whitespace-nowrap leading-none">$24,187,153<!-- --> <!-- -->Vol.</p><button class="inline-flex items-center cursor-pointer active:scale-[97%] transition duration-150 justify-center gap-2 whitespace-nowrap rounded-sm text-body-base font-semibold focus-visible:outline-none focus-visible:ring-1 focus-visible:ring-ring disabled:pointer-events-none disabled:opacity-50 [&amp;_svg]:pointer-events-none [&amp;_svg]:shrink-0 bg-button-ghost-bg text-pk-content-secondary w-7 h-7 hover:bg-pk-hover-overlay-darker" aria-label="Rewards" data-state="closed" data-slot="tooltip-trigger"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="16" height="16" viewBox="0 0 18 18"><line x1="9" y1="5.25" x2="9" y2="16.25" fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" stroke-width="1.5" data-color="color-2"></line><path d="M3.75,3.5c0-.966,.784-1.75,1.75-1.75,2.589,0,3.5,3.5,3.5,3.5h-3.5c-.966,0-1.75-.784-1.75-1.75Z" fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" stroke-width="1.5" data-color="color-2"></path><path d="M12.5,5.25h-3.5s.911-3.5,3.5-3.5c.966,0,1.75,.784,1.75,1.75s-.784,1.75-1.75,1.75Z" fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" stroke-width="1.5" data-color="color-2"></path><path d="M14.25,8.25v6c0,1.105-.895,2-2,2H5.75c-1.105,0-2-.895-2-2v-6" fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" stroke-width="1.5"></path><rect x="1.75" y="5.25" width="14.5" height="3" rx="1" ry="1" fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" stroke-width="1.5"></rect></svg></button></div></div></div></div><div class="flex items-center justify-center flex-1 z-10 relative @container"><div class="relative"><p class="font-semibold text-heading-2xl text-[28px] text-pk-content-primary" style="opacity:1">49%</p><div class="absolute left-[calc(100%+0.325rem)] top-1/2 -translate-y-1/2 hidden @[110px]:block"></div></div></div><div class="flex justify-end items-center gap-2 flex-3 z-1"><button class="inline-flex items-center duration-150 justify-center whitespace-nowrap text-body-base focus-visible:outline-none focus-visible:ring-1 focus-visible:ring-ring disabled:pointer-events-none disabled:opacity-50 [&amp;_svg]:pointer-events-none [&amp;_svg]:shrink-0 bg-pk-green-500/15 dark:text-pk-green-500 hover:bg-pk-green-500/25 text-pk-green-600 active:scale-100 transition px-4 py-2 h-12 gap-1 w-[136px] rounded-sm cursor-pointer font-semibold" data-active="false"><span class="flex items-center gap-1 min-w-0 w-fit"><span class="min-w-0 truncate opacity-80 capitalize">Buy<!-- --> <!-- -->Yes</span><span class="shrink-0 text-base">49¢</span></span></button><button class="inline-flex items-center duration-150 justify-center whitespace-nowrap text-body-base focus-visible:outline-none focus-visible:ring-1 focus-visible:ring-ring disabled:pointer-events-none disabled:opacity-50 [&amp;_svg]:pointer-events-none [&amp;_svg]:shrink-0 bg-pk-red-500/9 dark:bg-pk-red-500/15 text-pk-red-500 hover:bg-pk-red-500/13 dark:hover:bg-pk-red-500/25 active:scale-100 transition px-4 py-2 h-12 gap-1 w-[136px] rounded-sm cursor-pointer font-semibold" data-active="false"><span class="flex items-center gap-1 min-w-0 w-fit"><span class="min-w-0 truncate opacity-80 capitalize">Buy<!-- --> <!-- -->No</span><span class="shrink-0 text-base">52¢</span></span></button></div></div></div></div><div data-state="closed" id="radix-_R_rcqoqt4ltcnpfmi9arjabaivb_" hidden="" role="region" aria-labelledby="radix-_R_bcqoqt4ltcnpfmi9arjabaivb_" data-orientation="vertical" class="overflow-hidden text-base text-pk-content-primary bg-pk-surface data-[state=open]:animate-accordionSlideDown data-[state=closed]:animate-accordionSlideUp" style="--radix-accordion-content-height:var(--radix-collapsible-content-height);--radix-accordion-content-width:var(--radix-collapsible-content-width)"></div></div><div data-state="closed" data-orientation="vertical" data-scroll-anchor="event-detail-accordion-item-2252245-will-the-fed-increase-interest-rates-by-25-bps-after-the-september-2026-meeting-649" class="[&amp;+&amp;]:border-t [&amp;+&amp;]:border-pk-border"><div class="flex items-center justify-between flex-1 w-full bg-pk-surface font-medium text-base leading-none text-pk-content-primary cursor-pointer transition-all duration-200" data-orientation="vertical" data-state="closed"><div class="w-full flex flex-col transition py-3 gap-3 overflow-visible relative group cursor-pointer" type="button" aria-controls="radix-_R_scqoqt4ltcnpfmi9arjabaivb_" aria-expanded="false" data-state="closed" data-orientation="vertical" id="radix-_R_ccqoqt4ltcnpfmi9arjabaivb_" data-radix-collection-item=""><div class="absolute -top-px -bottom-px group-hover:bg-pk-hover-overlay-darker -left-3 -right-3 rounded-md"></div><div class="w-full flex flex-row justify-between min-h-12 z-1"><div class="flex items-center gap-4 w-full flex-3 z-1"><div class="flex flex-1 items-start justify-between min-w-0"><div class="flex flex-col gap-y-1"><div class="overflow-hidden text-ellipsis whitespace-nowrap max-w-[280px]"><p class="overflow-hidden whitespace-nowrap text-ellipsis font-semibold text-heading-lg max-w-[400px] min-[1024px]:max-[1050px]:max-w-[170px] min-[1050px]:max-[1080px]:max-w-[200px] min-[1080px]:max-[1140px]:max-w-[230px] min-[1140px]:max-[1220px]:max-w-[320px]">25 bps increase</p></div><div class="flex items-center gap-1.5 min-h-5 [&amp;_button]:size-5"><p class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-secondary whitespace-nowrap leading-none">$19,209,737<!-- --> <!-- -->Vol.</p><button class="inline-flex items-center cursor-pointer active:scale-[97%] transition duration-150 justify-center gap-2 whitespace-nowrap rounded-sm text-body-base font-semibold focus-visible:outline-none focus-visible:ring-1 focus-visible:ring-ring disabled:pointer-events-none disabled:opacity-50 [&amp;_svg]:pointer-events-none [&amp;_svg]:shrink-0 bg-button-ghost-bg text-pk-content-secondary w-7 h-7 hover:bg-pk-hover-overlay-darker" aria-label="Rewards" data-state="closed" data-slot="tooltip-trigger"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="16" height="16" viewBox="0 0 18 18"><line x1="9" y1="5.25" x2="9" y2="16.25" fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" stroke-width="1.5" data-color="color-2"></line><path d="M3.75,3.5c0-.966,.784-1.75,1.75-1.75,2.589,0,3.5,3.5,3.5,3.5h-3.5c-.966,0-1.75-.784-1.75-1.75Z" fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" stroke-width="1.5" data-color="color-2"></path><path d="M12.5,5.25h-3.5s.911-3.5,3.5-3.5c.966,0,1.75,.784,1.75,1.75s-.784,1.75-1.75,1.75Z" fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" stroke-width="1.5" data-color="color-2"></path><path d="M14.25,8.25v6c0,1.105-.895,2-2,2H5.75c-1.105,0-2-.895-2-2v-6" fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" stroke-width="1.5"></path><rect x="1.75" y="5.25" width="14.5" height="3" rx="1" ry="1" fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" stroke-width="1.5"></rect></svg></button></div></div></div></div><div class="flex items-center justify-center flex-1 z-10 relative @container"><div class="relative"><p class="font-semibold text-heading-2xl text-[28px] text-pk-content-primary" style="opacity:1">52%</p><div class="absolute left-[calc(100%+0.325rem)] top-1/2 -translate-y-1/2 hidden @[110px]:block"></div></div></div><div class="flex justify-end items-center gap-2 flex-3 z-1"><button class="inline-flex items-center duration-150 justify-center whitespace-nowrap text-body-base focus-visible:outline-none focus-visible:ring-1 focus-visible:ring-ring disabled:pointer-events-none disabled:opacity-50 [&amp;_svg]:pointer-events-none [&amp;_svg]:shrink-0 bg-pk-green-500/15 dark:text-pk-green-500 hover:bg-pk-green-500/25 text-pk-green-600 active:scale-100 transition px-4 py-2 h-12 gap-1 w-[136px] rounded-sm cursor-pointer font-semibold" data-active="false"><span class="flex items-center gap-1 min-w-0 w-fit"><span class="min-w-0 truncate opacity-80 capitalize">Buy<!-- --> <!-- -->Yes</span><span class="shrink-0 text-base">52¢</span></span></button><button class="inline-flex items-center duration-150 justify-center whitespace-nowrap text-body-base focus-visible:outline-none focus-visible:ring-1 focus-visible:ring-ring disabled:pointer-events-none disabled:opacity-50 [&amp;_svg]:pointer-events-none [&amp;_svg]:shrink-0 bg-pk-red-500/9 dark:bg-pk-red-500/15 text-pk-red-500 hover:bg-pk-red-500/13 dark:hover:bg-pk-red-500/25 active:scale-100 transition px-4 py-2 h-12 gap-1 w-[136px] rounded-sm cursor-pointer font-semibold" data-active="false"><span class="flex items-center gap-1 min-w-0 w-fit"><span class="min-w-0 truncate opacity-80 capitalize">Buy<!-- --> <!-- -->No</span><span class="shrink-0 text-base">49¢</span></span></button></div></div></div></div><div data-state="closed" id="radix-_R_scqoqt4ltcnpfmi9arjabaivb_" hidden="" role="region" aria-labelledby="radix-_R_ccqoqt4ltcnpfmi9arjabaivb_" data-orientation="vertical" class="overflow-hidden text-base text-pk-content-primary bg-pk-surface data-[state=open]:animate-accordionSlideDown data-[state=closed]:animate-accordionSlideUp" style="--radix-accordion-content-height:var(--radix-collapsible-content-height);--radix-accordion-content-width:var(--radix-collapsible-content-width)"></div></div><div data-state="closed" data-orientation="vertical" data-scroll-anchor="event-detail-accordion-item-2252246-will-the-fed-increase-interest-rates-by-50-bps-after-the-september-2026-meeting-664" class="[&amp;+&amp;]:border-t [&amp;+&amp;]:border-pk-border"><div class="flex items-center justify-between flex-1 w-full bg-pk-surface font-medium text-base leading-none text-pk-content-primary cursor-pointer transition-all duration-200" data-orientation="vertical" data-state="closed"><div class="w-full flex flex-col transition py-3 gap-3 overflow-visible relative group cursor-pointer" type="button" aria-controls="radix-_R_tcqoqt4ltcnpfmi9arjabaivb_" aria-expanded="false" data-state="closed" data-orientation="vertical" id="radix-_R_dcqoqt4ltcnpfmi9arjabaivb_" data-radix-collection-item=""><div class="absolute -top-px -bottom-px group-hover:bg-pk-hover-overlay-darker -left-3 -right-3 rounded-md"></div><div class="w-full flex flex-row justify-between min-h-12 z-1"><div class="flex items-center gap-4 w-full flex-3 z-1"><div class="flex flex-1 items-start justify-between min-w-0"><div class="flex flex-col gap-y-1"><div class="overflow-hidden text-ellipsis whitespace-nowrap max-w-[280px]"><p class="overflow-hidden whitespace-nowrap text-ellipsis font-semibold text-heading-lg max-w-[400px] min-[1024px]:max-[1050px]:max-w-[170px] min-[1050px]:max-[1080px]:max-w-[200px] min-[1080px]:max-[1140px]:max-w-[230px] min-[1140px]:max-[1220px]:max-w-[320px]">50+ bps increase</p></div><div class="flex items-center gap-1.5 min-h-5 [&amp;_button]:size-5"><p class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-secondary whitespace-nowrap leading-none">$13,937,847<!-- --> <!-- -->Vol.</p></div></div></div></div><div class="flex items-center justify-center flex-1 z-10 relative @container"><div class="relative"><p class="font-semibold text-heading-2xl text-[28px] text-pk-content-primary" style="opacity:1">1%</p><div class="absolute left-[calc(100%+0.325rem)] top-1/2 -translate-y-1/2 hidden @[110px]:block"></div></div></div><div class="flex justify-end items-center gap-2 flex-3 z-1"><button class="inline-flex items-center duration-150 justify-center whitespace-nowrap text-body-base focus-visible:outline-none focus-visible:ring-1 focus-visible:ring-ring disabled:pointer-events-none disabled:opacity-50 [&amp;_svg]:pointer-events-none [&amp;_svg]:shrink-0 bg-pk-green-500/15 dark:text-pk-green-500 hover:bg-pk-green-500/25 text-pk-green-600 active:scale-100 transition px-4 py-2 h-12 gap-1 w-[136px] rounded-sm cursor-pointer font-semibold" data-active="false"><span class="flex items-center gap-1 min-w-0 w-fit"><span class="min-w-0 truncate opacity-80 capitalize">Buy<!-- --> <!-- -->Yes</span><span class="shrink-0 text-base">0.6¢</span></span></button><button class="inline-flex items-center duration-150 justify-center whitespace-nowrap text-body-base focus-visible:outline-none focus-visible:ring-1 focus-visible:ring-ring disabled:pointer-events-none disabled:opacity-50 [&amp;_svg]:pointer-events-none [&amp;_svg]:shrink-0 bg-pk-red-500/9 dark:bg-pk-red-500/15 text-pk-red-500 hover:bg-pk-red-500/13 dark:hover:bg-pk-red-500/25 active:scale-100 transition px-4 py-2 h-12 gap-1 w-[136px] rounded-sm cursor-pointer font-semibold" data-active="false"><span class="flex items-center gap-1 min-w-0 w-fit"><span class="min-w-0 truncate opacity-80 capitalize">Buy<!-- --> <!-- -->No</span><span class="shrink-0 text-base">99.5¢</span></span></button></div></div></div></div><div data-state="closed" id="radix-_R_tcqoqt4ltcnpfmi9arjabaivb_" hidden="" role="region" aria-labelledby="radix-_R_dcqoqt4ltcnpfmi9arjabaivb_" data-orientation="vertical" class="overflow-hidden text-base text-pk-content-primary bg-pk-surface data-[state=open]:animate-accordionSlideDown data-[state=closed]:animate-accordionSlideUp" style="--radix-accordion-content-height:var(--radix-collapsible-content-height);--radix-accordion-content-width:var(--radix-collapsible-content-width)"></div></div></div></div></div><div class="fresnel-container fresnel-lessThan-lg fresnel-_R_4oqt4ltcnpfmi9arjabaivb_ contents"><div class="w-full"><div class="overflow-visible relative"><div class="w-full flex items-center justify-end gap-2 mb-0"></div><div class="flex h-auto w-full flex-col"><div class="mt-1.5"><div class="flex w-full gap-3"><div class="flex w-full gap-3"><div class="flex flex-col w-full gap-3 justify-center" style="height:auto"><div class="flex flex-col items-start gap-y-1 sm:flex-row sm:items-center sm:gap-x-3 sm:flex-wrap"><div class="flex items-center gap-1.5 whitespace-nowrap" style="opacity:1"><div class="size-2 rounded-full" style="background-color:var(--legend-color);--legend-color:#87BFFF"></div><p class="text-pk-content-secondary text-body-sm">25 bps increase<span class="text-pk-gray-800 font-semibold ml-0.5"> <!-- -->52%</span></p></div><div class="flex items-center gap-1.5 whitespace-nowrap" style="opacity:1"><div class="size-2 rounded-full" style="background-color:var(--legend-color);--legend-color:#4378FF"></div><p class="text-pk-content-secondary text-body-sm">No change<span class="text-pk-gray-800 font-semibold ml-0.5"> <!-- -->49%</span></p></div><div class="flex items-center gap-1.5 whitespace-nowrap" style="opacity:1"><div class="size-2 rounded-full" style="background-color:var(--legend-color);--legend-color:#FDC503"></div><p class="text-pk-content-secondary text-body-sm">50+ bps increase<span class="text-pk-gray-800 font-semibold ml-0.5"> <!-- -->&lt;1%</span></p></div><div class="flex items-center gap-1.5 whitespace-nowrap" style="opacity:1"><div class="size-2 rounded-full" style="background-color:var(--legend-color);--legend-color:#FF7F0E"></div><p class="text-pk-content-secondary text-body-sm">25 bps decrease<span class="text-pk-gray-800 font-semibold ml-0.5"> <!-- -->&lt;1%</span></p></div></div></div></div><div class="ml-auto self-end"><svg viewBox="0 0 911 168" fill="none" role="img" aria-labelledby="polymarket-logo-title" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" class="max-[400px]:w-auto h-6 w-auto text-pk-content-secondary [&amp;_path]:fill-pk-gray-300"><title id="polymarket-logo-title">Polymarket</title><path fill-rule="evenodd" clip-rule="evenodd" d="M395.676 132.183V29.2346H378.683V132.183H395.676ZM228.862 96.1278V132.186H211.188V34.6007H249.334C256.841 34.6007 263.335 35.93 268.817 38.5885C274.299 41.247 278.474 44.9332 281.34 49.6475C284.206 54.3613 285.639 59.7346 285.639 65.7666C285.639 72.0667 284.217 77.4955 281.374 82.053C278.53 86.6104 274.391 90.0957 268.954 92.5088C263.517 94.9218 256.978 96.1278 249.334 96.1278H228.862ZM228.861 82.1873H249.334C255.658 82.1873 260.332 80.7347 263.358 77.8307C266.383 74.9261 267.896 70.9493 267.896 65.9003C267.896 62.7729 267.236 59.9019 265.917 57.2879C264.598 54.674 262.55 52.5741 259.775 50.9878C257 49.4015 253.52 48.6083 249.334 48.6083H228.861V82.1873ZM329.499 133.53C336.551 133.53 342.67 131.944 347.856 128.772C353.043 125.599 357.013 121.22 359.765 115.635C362.517 110.05 363.893 103.727 363.893 96.6673V95.2599C363.893 88.2002 362.517 81.8775 359.765 76.2924C357.013 70.7073 353.032 66.3172 347.823 63.122C342.613 59.9273 336.46 58.33 329.363 58.33C322.357 58.33 316.26 59.9273 311.074 63.122C305.888 66.3172 301.919 70.7073 299.166 76.2924C296.414 81.8775 295.037 88.2002 295.037 95.2599V96.6673C295.037 103.727 296.414 110.05 299.166 115.635C301.919 121.22 305.899 125.599 311.108 128.772C316.317 131.944 322.448 133.53 329.499 133.53ZM316.397 113.559C319.309 117.938 323.676 120.127 329.5 120.127C333.366 120.127 336.608 119.088 339.224 117.01C341.84 114.933 343.774 112.129 345.025 108.599C346.276 105.069 346.901 101.093 346.901 96.6691V95.2617C346.901 90.8825 346.276 86.9173 345.025 83.3649C343.774 79.8125 341.829 76.9866 339.19 74.8862C336.551 72.7863 333.276 71.7361 329.363 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data-state="closed" data-slot="popover-trigger"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="14" height="14" viewBox="0 0 18 18"><path d="M9.5 11.75C9.5 11.75 9.5 14.688 13.25 15.75H4.75C8.5 14.688 8.5 11.75 8.5 11.75" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="1.5" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" data-color="color-2" fill="none"></path><path d="M5.286 9C1.469 9 1.74999 3.75 1.74999 3.75H4.42949" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="1.5" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" data-color="color-2" fill="none"></path><path d="M12.714 9C16.532 9 16.25 3.75 16.25 3.75H13.5705" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="1.5" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" data-color="color-2" fill="none"></path><path d="M13.75 2.25C13.1562 8.159 11.583 11.4958 9.23749 11.75H8.76251C6.41701 11.4958 4.8438 8.159 4.25 2.25H13.75Z" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="1.5" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" fill="none"></path></svg></button><p class="text-pk-content-primary text-[13px] tracking-[-0.09px] font-medium whitespace-nowrap">$103,449,144<!-- --> <!-- -->Vol.</p></div></div></div><div class="flex items-center"><div class="flex w-fit items-start z-2"><div dir="ltr" data-orientation="horizontal"><div class="relative"><div role="tablist" aria-orientation="horizontal" class="relative inline-flex h-9 justify-center text-zinc-500 group bg-transparent z-3 font-medium items-start overflow-hidden p-0" aria-label="Select chart window" tabindex="-1" data-orientation="horizontal" style="outline:none"><button type="button" role="tab" aria-selected="false" aria-controls="radix-_R_15pcoqt4ltcnpfmi9arjabaivb_-content-1h" data-state="inactive" id="radix-_R_15pcoqt4ltcnpfmi9arjabaivb_-trigger-1h" class="z-1 inline-flex cursor-pointer h-full items-center justify-center whitespace-nowrap rounded-md py-1 ring-offset-pk-surface focus-visible:outline-none focus-visible:ring-2 focus-visible:ring-offset-2 disabled:pointer-events-none disabled:opacity-50 text-tabs-text hover:text-tabs-text-hover uppercase text-body-base font-semibold px-1.5 data-[state=active]:text-tabs-text" tabindex="-1" data-orientation="horizontal" data-radix-collection-item="">1H</button><button type="button" role="tab" aria-selected="false" aria-controls="radix-_R_15pcoqt4ltcnpfmi9arjabaivb_-content-1d" data-state="inactive" id="radix-_R_15pcoqt4ltcnpfmi9arjabaivb_-trigger-1d" class="z-1 inline-flex cursor-pointer h-full items-center justify-center whitespace-nowrap rounded-md py-1 ring-offset-pk-surface focus-visible:outline-none focus-visible:ring-2 focus-visible:ring-offset-2 disabled:pointer-events-none disabled:opacity-50 text-tabs-text hover:text-tabs-text-hover uppercase text-body-base font-semibold px-1.5 data-[state=active]:text-tabs-text" tabindex="-1" data-orientation="horizontal" data-radix-collection-item="">1D</button><button type="button" role="tab" aria-selected="false" aria-controls="radix-_R_15pcoqt4ltcnpfmi9arjabaivb_-content-1w" data-state="inactive" id="radix-_R_15pcoqt4ltcnpfmi9arjabaivb_-trigger-1w" class="z-1 inline-flex cursor-pointer h-full items-center justify-center whitespace-nowrap rounded-md py-1 ring-offset-pk-surface focus-visible:outline-none focus-visible:ring-2 focus-visible:ring-offset-2 disabled:pointer-events-none disabled:opacity-50 text-tabs-text hover:text-tabs-text-hover uppercase text-body-base font-semibold px-1.5 data-[state=active]:text-tabs-text" tabindex="-1" data-orientation="horizontal" data-radix-collection-item="">1W</button><button type="button" role="tab" aria-selected="false" aria-controls="radix-_R_15pcoqt4ltcnpfmi9arjabaivb_-content-1m" data-state="inactive" id="radix-_R_15pcoqt4ltcnpfmi9arjabaivb_-trigger-1m" class="z-1 inline-flex cursor-pointer h-full items-center justify-center whitespace-nowrap rounded-md py-1 ring-offset-pk-surface focus-visible:outline-none focus-visible:ring-2 focus-visible:ring-offset-2 disabled:pointer-events-none disabled:opacity-50 text-tabs-text hover:text-tabs-text-hover uppercase text-body-base font-semibold px-1.5 data-[state=active]:text-tabs-text" tabindex="-1" data-orientation="horizontal" data-radix-collection-item="">1M</button><button type="button" role="tab" aria-selected="false" aria-controls="radix-_R_15pcoqt4ltcnpfmi9arjabaivb_-content-all" data-state="inactive" id="radix-_R_15pcoqt4ltcnpfmi9arjabaivb_-trigger-all" class="z-1 inline-flex cursor-pointer h-full items-center justify-center whitespace-nowrap rounded-md py-1 ring-offset-pk-surface focus-visible:outline-none focus-visible:ring-2 focus-visible:ring-offset-2 disabled:pointer-events-none disabled:opacity-50 text-tabs-text hover:text-tabs-text-hover uppercase text-body-base font-semibold px-1.5 data-[state=active]:text-tabs-text" tabindex="-1" data-orientation="horizontal" data-radix-collection-item="">Max</button></div><div class="absolute pointer-events-none selection-indicator-transition h-7" style="transform:translateX(calc(0px + 0px));width:calc(0px - 0px);transform-origin:center;opacity:0;--selection-indicator-position-duration:0ms;--selection-indicator-opacity-duration:0ms"></div></div></div></div></div><div class="flex items-center gap-3.5"><button type="button" class="text-pk-content-secondary hover:text-pk-content-primary cursor-pointer"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="18px" height="18px" viewBox="0 0 18 18"><path d="M9 11.2495C10.2426 11.2495 11.25 10.2422 11.25 8.99951C11.25 7.75687 10.2426 6.74951 9 6.74951C7.75736 6.74951 6.75 7.75687 6.75 8.99951C6.75 10.2422 7.75736 11.2495 9 11.2495Z" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="1.5" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" data-color="color-2" fill="none"></path><path d="M16.25 9.35449V8.6445C16.25 8.1345 15.867 7.70651 15.36 7.65051L14.266 7.5285L13.763 6.31451L14.451 5.45551C14.769 5.05751 14.738 4.4845 14.377 4.1235L13.875 3.62149C13.515 3.26149 12.941 3.22949 12.543 3.54749L11.684 4.2355L10.47 3.73251L10.348 2.63849C10.292 2.13249 9.86405 1.7485 9.35405 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stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="1.5" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" data-color="color-2" fill="none"></path><path d="M13.75 2.25C13.1562 8.159 11.583 11.4958 9.23749 11.75H8.76251C6.41701 11.4958 4.8438 8.159 4.25 2.25H13.75Z" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="1.5" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" fill="none"></path></svg></button><p class="text-pk-content-primary text-[13px] tracking-[-0.09px] font-medium whitespace-nowrap">$103,449,144<!-- --> <!-- -->Vol.</p></div><div class="w-[1.5px] h-[10px] bg-pk-gray-200 rounded-full shrink-0"></div><div class="text-[13px] tracking-[-0.09px] font-medium text-pk-content-secondary gap-1.5 whitespace-nowrap flex items-center md:mr-1" data-state="closed" data-slot="tooltip-trigger"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="12px" height="12px" viewBox="0 0 12 12"><circle cx="6" cy="6" r="5.25" fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" stroke-width="1.5"></circle><path d="m6,3.25v2.75l2,1.75" fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" stroke-width="1.5" data-color="color-2"></path></svg><span>Sep 15, 2026</span></div></div><div class="flex items-center gap-1 ml-auto"><div class="flex w-fit items-start z-2"><div dir="ltr" data-orientation="horizontal"><div class="relative"><div role="tablist" aria-orientation="horizontal" class="relative inline-flex h-9 justify-center text-zinc-500 group bg-transparent z-3 font-medium items-start overflow-hidden p-0" aria-label="Select chart window" tabindex="-1" data-orientation="horizontal" style="outline:none"><button type="button" role="tab" aria-selected="false" aria-controls="radix-_R_39pcoqt4ltcnpfmi9arjabaivb_-content-1h" data-state="inactive" id="radix-_R_39pcoqt4ltcnpfmi9arjabaivb_-trigger-1h" class="z-1 inline-flex cursor-pointer h-full items-center justify-center whitespace-nowrap rounded-md py-1 ring-offset-pk-surface focus-visible:outline-none focus-visible:ring-2 focus-visible:ring-offset-2 disabled:pointer-events-none disabled:opacity-50 text-tabs-text hover:text-tabs-text-hover uppercase text-body-base font-semibold px-1.5 data-[state=active]:text-tabs-text" tabindex="-1" data-orientation="horizontal" data-radix-collection-item="">1H</button><button type="button" role="tab" aria-selected="false" aria-controls="radix-_R_39pcoqt4ltcnpfmi9arjabaivb_-content-6h" data-state="inactive" id="radix-_R_39pcoqt4ltcnpfmi9arjabaivb_-trigger-6h" class="z-1 inline-flex cursor-pointer h-full items-center justify-center whitespace-nowrap rounded-md py-1 ring-offset-pk-surface focus-visible:outline-none focus-visible:ring-2 focus-visible:ring-offset-2 disabled:pointer-events-none disabled:opacity-50 text-tabs-text hover:text-tabs-text-hover uppercase text-body-base font-semibold px-1.5 data-[state=active]:text-tabs-text" tabindex="-1" data-orientation="horizontal" data-radix-collection-item="">6H</button><button type="button" role="tab" aria-selected="false" aria-controls="radix-_R_39pcoqt4ltcnpfmi9arjabaivb_-content-1d" data-state="inactive" id="radix-_R_39pcoqt4ltcnpfmi9arjabaivb_-trigger-1d" class="z-1 inline-flex cursor-pointer h-full items-center justify-center whitespace-nowrap rounded-md py-1 ring-offset-pk-surface focus-visible:outline-none focus-visible:ring-2 focus-visible:ring-offset-2 disabled:pointer-events-none disabled:opacity-50 text-tabs-text hover:text-tabs-text-hover uppercase text-body-base font-semibold px-1.5 data-[state=active]:text-tabs-text" tabindex="-1" data-orientation="horizontal" data-radix-collection-item="">1D</button><button type="button" role="tab" aria-selected="false" aria-controls="radix-_R_39pcoqt4ltcnpfmi9arjabaivb_-content-1w" data-state="inactive" id="radix-_R_39pcoqt4ltcnpfmi9arjabaivb_-trigger-1w" class="z-1 inline-flex cursor-pointer h-full items-center justify-center whitespace-nowrap rounded-md py-1 ring-offset-pk-surface focus-visible:outline-none focus-visible:ring-2 focus-visible:ring-offset-2 disabled:pointer-events-none disabled:opacity-50 text-tabs-text hover:text-tabs-text-hover uppercase text-body-base font-semibold px-1.5 data-[state=active]:text-tabs-text" tabindex="-1" data-orientation="horizontal" data-radix-collection-item="">1W</button><button type="button" role="tab" aria-selected="false" aria-controls="radix-_R_39pcoqt4ltcnpfmi9arjabaivb_-content-1m" data-state="inactive" id="radix-_R_39pcoqt4ltcnpfmi9arjabaivb_-trigger-1m" class="z-1 inline-flex cursor-pointer h-full items-center justify-center whitespace-nowrap rounded-md py-1 ring-offset-pk-surface focus-visible:outline-none focus-visible:ring-2 focus-visible:ring-offset-2 disabled:pointer-events-none disabled:opacity-50 text-tabs-text hover:text-tabs-text-hover uppercase text-body-base font-semibold px-1.5 data-[state=active]:text-tabs-text" tabindex="-1" data-orientation="horizontal" data-radix-collection-item="">1M</button><button type="button" role="tab" aria-selected="false" aria-controls="radix-_R_39pcoqt4ltcnpfmi9arjabaivb_-content-all" data-state="inactive" id="radix-_R_39pcoqt4ltcnpfmi9arjabaivb_-trigger-all" class="z-1 inline-flex cursor-pointer h-full items-center justify-center whitespace-nowrap rounded-md py-1 ring-offset-pk-surface focus-visible:outline-none focus-visible:ring-2 focus-visible:ring-offset-2 disabled:pointer-events-none disabled:opacity-50 text-tabs-text hover:text-tabs-text-hover uppercase text-body-base font-semibold px-1.5 data-[state=active]:text-tabs-text" tabindex="-1" data-orientation="horizontal" data-radix-collection-item="">ALL</button></div><div class="absolute pointer-events-none selection-indicator-transition h-7" style="transform:translateX(calc(0px + 0px));width:calc(0px - 0px);transform-origin:center;opacity:0;--selection-indicator-position-duration:0ms;--selection-indicator-opacity-duration:0ms"></div></div></div></div><div class="ml-1 flex items-center gap-3"><div class="overflow-hidden flex items-center mt-1" style="opacity:1;width:auto"><button type="button" class="hover:text-pk-content-primary cursor-pointer text-pk-content-secondary" id="radix-_R_nd9pcoqt4ltcnpfmi9arjabaivb_" aria-haspopup="menu" aria-expanded="false" data-state="closed" data-slot="dropdown-menu-trigger"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="18px" height="18px" viewBox="0 0 18 18"><polyline points="10.25 12.75 12.75 15.25 15.25 12.75" fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" stroke-width="1.5" data-color="color-2"></polyline><line x1="12.75" y1="15.25" x2="12.75" y2="6.25" fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" stroke-width="1.5" data-color="color-2"></line><line x1="2.75" y1="9.75" x2="9.25" y2="9.75" fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" stroke-width="1.5"></line><line x1="2.75" y1="6.25" x2="9.25" y2="6.25" fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" stroke-width="1.5"></line><line x1="2.75" y1="2.75" x2="12.75" y2="2.75" fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" stroke-width="1.5"></line></svg></button></div><button type="button" class="hover:text-pk-content-primary cursor-pointer text-pk-content-secondary" id="radix-_R_t9pcoqt4ltcnpfmi9arjabaivb_" aria-haspopup="menu" aria-expanded="false" data-state="closed" data-slot="dropdown-menu-trigger"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="18px" height="18px" viewBox="0 0 18 18"><path d="M9 11.2495C10.2426 11.2495 11.25 10.2422 11.25 8.99951C11.25 7.75687 10.2426 6.74951 9 6.74951C7.75736 6.74951 6.75 7.75687 6.75 8.99951C6.75 10.2422 7.75736 11.2495 9 11.2495Z" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="1.5" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" data-color="color-2" fill="none"></path><path d="M16.25 9.35449V8.6445C16.25 8.1345 15.867 7.70651 15.36 7.65051L14.266 7.5285L13.763 6.31451L14.451 5.45551C14.769 5.05751 14.738 4.4845 14.377 4.1235L13.875 3.62149C13.515 3.26149 12.941 3.22949 12.543 3.54749L11.684 4.2355L10.47 3.73251L10.348 2.63849C10.292 2.13249 9.86405 1.7485 9.35405 1.7485H8.64405C8.13405 1.7485 7.70605 2.13149 7.65005 2.63849L7.52805 3.73251L6.31404 4.2355L5.45505 3.54849C5.05705 3.23049 4.48405 3.2615 4.12305 3.6225L3.62104 4.12451C3.26104 4.48451 3.22905 5.05851 3.54705 5.45651L4.23505 6.31549L3.73204 7.52951L2.63805 7.65149C2.13205 7.70749 1.74805 8.13551 1.74805 8.64551V9.3555C1.74805 9.8655 2.13105 10.2935 2.63805 10.3495L3.73204 10.4715L4.23505 11.6855L3.54805 12.5445C3.23005 12.9425 3.26105 13.5165 3.62205 13.8765L4.12405 14.3785C4.48405 14.7385 5.05805 14.7705 5.45605 14.4525L6.31504 13.7645L7.52905 14.2675L7.65105 15.3615C7.70705 15.8675 8.13505 16.2515 8.64505 16.2515H9.35505C9.86505 16.2515 10.293 15.8685 10.349 15.3615L10.471 14.2675L11.685 13.7645L12.544 14.4525C12.942 14.7705 13.515 14.7395 13.876 14.3785L14.378 13.8765C14.738 13.5165 14.77 12.9425 14.452 12.5445L13.765 11.6855L14.268 10.4715L15.362 10.3495C15.868 10.2935 16.252 9.8655 16.252 9.3555L16.25 9.35449Z" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="1.5" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" fill="none"></path></svg></button></div></div></div></div></div><div class="fresnel-container fresnel-lessThan-lg fresnel-_R_29coqt4ltcnpfmi9arjabaivb_ contents"><span class="hidden" type="button" aria-haspopup="dialog" aria-expanded="false" aria-controls="radix-_R_m9coqt4ltcnpfmi9arjabaivb_" data-state="closed" data-slot="modal-trigger"></span></div><div class="fresnel-container fresnel-lessThan-lg fresnel-_R_2pcoqt4ltcnpfmi9arjabaivb_ contents"></div><div class="fresnel-container fresnel-lessThan-lg fresnel-_R_39coqt4ltcnpfmi9arjabaivb_ contents"></div></div><div class="absolute z-10 pointer-events-none bottom-20 left-1 md:left-2.5"></div></div><div class="group flex flex-col w-full overflow-visible gap-4 py-4 border-b bg-pk-surface transition-all duration-200 relative border-t border-pk-border mt-2"><div class="absolute top-0 bottom-0 -left-2.5 -right-2.5 rounded-md transition-all duration-200 group-active:bg-pk-hover-overlay-darker"></div><div class="flex justify-between z-1"><div class="flex gap-3 w-full"><div class="flex w-full justify-between"><div class="flex flex-col w-full gap-1.5"><div class="flex w-full justify-between items-start"><p class="relative overflow-hidden text-ellipsis font-semibold text-base leading-normal mr-auto w-full pr-3 grow max-w-[calc(100vw-2rem-70px)] lg:max-w-[400px] lg:grow-0 lg:[@media(min-width:1024px)_and_(max-width:1080px)]:max-w-[240px] lg:[@media(min-width:1080px)_and_(max-width:1140px)]:max-w-[280px] lg:[@media(min-width:1140px)_and_(max-width:1220px)]:max-w-[320px]">50+ bps decrease</p></div><div class="flex items-center gap-3"><span class="text-xs whitespace-nowrap font-normal text-pk-content-tertiary">$13,841,456<!-- --> <!-- -->Vol.</span></div></div><div class="flex items-center gap-2"><div class="flex justify-end items-center"><p class="font-semibold text-heading-2xl text-[28px] text-pk-content-primary" style="opacity:0.25">&lt;1%</p></div></div></div></div></div><div class="flex justify-end gap-3 z-1"><button class="inline-flex items-center duration-150 justify-center whitespace-nowrap rounded-sm text-body-base font-semibold focus-visible:outline-none focus-visible:ring-1 focus-visible:ring-ring disabled:pointer-events-none disabled:opacity-50 [&amp;_svg]:pointer-events-none [&amp;_svg]:shrink-0 bg-pk-green-500/15 dark:text-pk-green-500 hover:bg-pk-green-500/25 text-pk-green-600 active:scale-100 transition px-4 py-2 flex-1 h-11 cursor-pointer gap-1">Buy Yes 0.2¢</button><button class="inline-flex items-center duration-150 justify-center whitespace-nowrap rounded-sm text-body-base font-semibold focus-visible:outline-none focus-visible:ring-1 focus-visible:ring-ring disabled:pointer-events-none disabled:opacity-50 [&amp;_svg]:pointer-events-none [&amp;_svg]:shrink-0 bg-pk-red-500/9 dark:bg-pk-red-500/15 text-pk-red-500 hover:bg-pk-red-500/13 dark:hover:bg-pk-red-500/25 active:scale-100 transition px-4 py-2 flex-1 h-11 cursor-pointer gap-1">Buy No 99.9¢</button></div></div><div class="group flex flex-col w-full overflow-visible gap-4 py-4 border-b border-pk-gray-100 bg-pk-surface transition-all duration-200 relative"><div class="absolute top-0 bottom-0 -left-2.5 -right-2.5 rounded-md transition-all duration-200 group-active:bg-pk-hover-overlay-darker"></div><div class="flex justify-between z-1"><div class="flex gap-3 w-full"><div class="flex w-full justify-between"><div class="flex flex-col w-full gap-1.5"><div class="flex w-full justify-between items-start"><p class="relative overflow-hidden text-ellipsis font-semibold text-base leading-normal mr-auto w-full pr-3 grow max-w-[calc(100vw-2rem-70px)] lg:max-w-[400px] lg:grow-0 lg:[@media(min-width:1024px)_and_(max-width:1080px)]:max-w-[240px] lg:[@media(min-width:1080px)_and_(max-width:1140px)]:max-w-[280px] lg:[@media(min-width:1140px)_and_(max-width:1220px)]:max-w-[320px]">25 bps decrease</p></div><div class="flex items-center gap-3"><span class="text-xs whitespace-nowrap font-normal text-pk-content-tertiary">$32,272,951<!-- --> <!-- -->Vol.</span></div></div><div class="flex items-center gap-2"><div class="flex justify-end items-center"><p class="font-semibold text-heading-2xl text-[28px] text-pk-content-primary" style="opacity:0.25">&lt;1%</p></div></div></div></div></div><div class="flex justify-end gap-3 z-1"><button class="inline-flex items-center duration-150 justify-center whitespace-nowrap rounded-sm text-body-base font-semibold focus-visible:outline-none focus-visible:ring-1 focus-visible:ring-ring disabled:pointer-events-none disabled:opacity-50 [&amp;_svg]:pointer-events-none [&amp;_svg]:shrink-0 bg-pk-green-500/15 dark:text-pk-green-500 hover:bg-pk-green-500/25 text-pk-green-600 active:scale-100 transition px-4 py-2 flex-1 h-11 cursor-pointer gap-1">Buy Yes 0.5¢</button><button class="inline-flex items-center duration-150 justify-center whitespace-nowrap rounded-sm text-body-base font-semibold focus-visible:outline-none focus-visible:ring-1 focus-visible:ring-ring disabled:pointer-events-none disabled:opacity-50 [&amp;_svg]:pointer-events-none [&amp;_svg]:shrink-0 bg-pk-red-500/9 dark:bg-pk-red-500/15 text-pk-red-500 hover:bg-pk-red-500/13 dark:hover:bg-pk-red-500/25 active:scale-100 transition px-4 py-2 flex-1 h-11 cursor-pointer gap-1">Buy No 99.6¢</button></div></div><div class="group flex flex-col w-full overflow-visible gap-4 py-4 border-b border-pk-gray-100 bg-pk-surface transition-all duration-200 relative"><div class="absolute top-0 bottom-0 -left-2.5 -right-2.5 rounded-md transition-all duration-200 group-active:bg-pk-hover-overlay-darker"></div><div class="flex justify-between z-1"><div class="flex gap-3 w-full"><div class="flex w-full justify-between"><div class="flex flex-col w-full gap-1.5"><div class="flex w-full justify-between items-start"><p class="relative overflow-hidden text-ellipsis font-semibold text-base leading-normal mr-auto w-full pr-3 grow max-w-[calc(100vw-2rem-70px)] lg:max-w-[400px] lg:grow-0 lg:[@media(min-width:1024px)_and_(max-width:1080px)]:max-w-[240px] lg:[@media(min-width:1080px)_and_(max-width:1140px)]:max-w-[280px] lg:[@media(min-width:1140px)_and_(max-width:1220px)]:max-w-[320px]">No change</p></div><div class="flex items-center gap-3"><span class="text-xs whitespace-nowrap font-normal text-pk-content-tertiary">$24,187,153<!-- --> <!-- -->Vol.</span></div></div><div class="flex items-center gap-2"><div class="flex justify-end items-center"><p class="font-semibold text-heading-2xl text-[28px] text-pk-content-primary" style="opacity:1">49%</p></div></div></div></div></div><div class="flex justify-end gap-3 z-1"><button class="inline-flex items-center duration-150 justify-center whitespace-nowrap rounded-sm text-body-base font-semibold focus-visible:outline-none focus-visible:ring-1 focus-visible:ring-ring disabled:pointer-events-none disabled:opacity-50 [&amp;_svg]:pointer-events-none [&amp;_svg]:shrink-0 bg-pk-green-500/15 dark:text-pk-green-500 hover:bg-pk-green-500/25 text-pk-green-600 active:scale-100 transition px-4 py-2 flex-1 h-11 cursor-pointer gap-1">Buy Yes 49¢</button><button class="inline-flex items-center duration-150 justify-center whitespace-nowrap rounded-sm text-body-base font-semibold focus-visible:outline-none focus-visible:ring-1 focus-visible:ring-ring disabled:pointer-events-none disabled:opacity-50 [&amp;_svg]:pointer-events-none [&amp;_svg]:shrink-0 bg-pk-red-500/9 dark:bg-pk-red-500/15 text-pk-red-500 hover:bg-pk-red-500/13 dark:hover:bg-pk-red-500/25 active:scale-100 transition px-4 py-2 flex-1 h-11 cursor-pointer gap-1">Buy No 52¢</button></div></div><div class="group flex flex-col w-full overflow-visible gap-4 py-4 border-b border-pk-gray-100 bg-pk-surface transition-all duration-200 relative"><div class="absolute top-0 bottom-0 -left-2.5 -right-2.5 rounded-md transition-all duration-200 group-active:bg-pk-hover-overlay-darker"></div><div class="flex justify-between z-1"><div class="flex gap-3 w-full"><div class="flex w-full justify-between"><div class="flex flex-col w-full gap-1.5"><div class="flex w-full justify-between items-start"><p class="relative overflow-hidden text-ellipsis font-semibold text-base leading-normal mr-auto w-full pr-3 grow max-w-[calc(100vw-2rem-70px)] lg:max-w-[400px] lg:grow-0 lg:[@media(min-width:1024px)_and_(max-width:1080px)]:max-w-[240px] lg:[@media(min-width:1080px)_and_(max-width:1140px)]:max-w-[280px] lg:[@media(min-width:1140px)_and_(max-width:1220px)]:max-w-[320px]">25 bps increase</p></div><div class="flex items-center gap-3"><span class="text-xs whitespace-nowrap font-normal text-pk-content-tertiary">$19,209,737<!-- --> <!-- -->Vol.</span></div></div><div class="flex items-center gap-2"><div class="flex justify-end items-center"><p class="font-semibold text-heading-2xl text-[28px] text-pk-content-primary" style="opacity:1">52%</p></div></div></div></div></div><div class="flex justify-end gap-3 z-1"><button class="inline-flex items-center duration-150 justify-center whitespace-nowrap rounded-sm text-body-base font-semibold focus-visible:outline-none focus-visible:ring-1 focus-visible:ring-ring disabled:pointer-events-none disabled:opacity-50 [&amp;_svg]:pointer-events-none [&amp;_svg]:shrink-0 bg-pk-green-500/15 dark:text-pk-green-500 hover:bg-pk-green-500/25 text-pk-green-600 active:scale-100 transition px-4 py-2 flex-1 h-11 cursor-pointer gap-1">Buy Yes 52¢</button><button class="inline-flex items-center duration-150 justify-center whitespace-nowrap rounded-sm text-body-base font-semibold focus-visible:outline-none focus-visible:ring-1 focus-visible:ring-ring disabled:pointer-events-none disabled:opacity-50 [&amp;_svg]:pointer-events-none [&amp;_svg]:shrink-0 bg-pk-red-500/9 dark:bg-pk-red-500/15 text-pk-red-500 hover:bg-pk-red-500/13 dark:hover:bg-pk-red-500/25 active:scale-100 transition px-4 py-2 flex-1 h-11 cursor-pointer gap-1">Buy No 49¢</button></div></div><div class="group flex flex-col w-full overflow-visible gap-4 py-4 border-b border-pk-gray-100 bg-pk-surface transition-all duration-200 relative"><div class="absolute top-0 bottom-0 -left-2.5 -right-2.5 rounded-md transition-all duration-200 group-active:bg-pk-hover-overlay-darker"></div><div class="flex justify-between z-1"><div class="flex gap-3 w-full"><div class="flex w-full justify-between"><div class="flex flex-col w-full gap-1.5"><div class="flex w-full justify-between items-start"><p class="relative overflow-hidden text-ellipsis font-semibold text-base leading-normal mr-auto w-full pr-3 grow max-w-[calc(100vw-2rem-70px)] lg:max-w-[400px] lg:grow-0 lg:[@media(min-width:1024px)_and_(max-width:1080px)]:max-w-[240px] lg:[@media(min-width:1080px)_and_(max-width:1140px)]:max-w-[280px] lg:[@media(min-width:1140px)_and_(max-width:1220px)]:max-w-[320px]">50+ bps increase</p></div><div class="flex items-center gap-3"><span class="text-xs whitespace-nowrap font-normal text-pk-content-tertiary">$13,937,847<!-- --> <!-- -->Vol.</span></div></div><div class="flex items-center gap-2"><div class="flex justify-end items-center"><p class="font-semibold text-heading-2xl text-[28px] text-pk-content-primary" style="opacity:1">1%</p></div></div></div></div></div><div class="flex justify-end gap-3 z-1"><button class="inline-flex items-center duration-150 justify-center whitespace-nowrap rounded-sm text-body-base font-semibold focus-visible:outline-none focus-visible:ring-1 focus-visible:ring-ring disabled:pointer-events-none disabled:opacity-50 [&amp;_svg]:pointer-events-none [&amp;_svg]:shrink-0 bg-pk-green-500/15 dark:text-pk-green-500 hover:bg-pk-green-500/25 text-pk-green-600 active:scale-100 transition px-4 py-2 flex-1 h-11 cursor-pointer gap-1">Buy Yes 0.6¢</button><button class="inline-flex items-center duration-150 justify-center whitespace-nowrap rounded-sm text-body-base font-semibold focus-visible:outline-none focus-visible:ring-1 focus-visible:ring-ring disabled:pointer-events-none disabled:opacity-50 [&amp;_svg]:pointer-events-none [&amp;_svg]:shrink-0 bg-pk-red-500/9 dark:bg-pk-red-500/15 text-pk-red-500 hover:bg-pk-red-500/13 dark:hover:bg-pk-red-500/25 active:scale-100 transition px-4 py-2 flex-1 h-11 cursor-pointer gap-1">Buy No 99.5¢</button></div></div></div></div></div><div class="fresnel-container fresnel-greaterThanOrEqual-lg fresnel-_R_sqt4ltcnpfmi9arjabaivb_ contents"><div class="mt-8 w-full mb-6"><span class="sr-only">The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.

This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve&#x27;s September 2026 meeting.

If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there&#x27;s a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)

The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for September 15-16, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.

The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.

This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their September meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the &quot;No change&quot; bracket.</span><span class="sr-only">Recent strong August jobs data, showing 162,000 payroll gains well above expectations alongside steady 4.1% unemployment and upward revisions, has reinforced views of labor market resilience and supported trader bets on a 25 basis point hike. Hawkish signals from Chair Kevin Warsh at Jackson Hole, emphasizing persistent inflation above the 2% target amid supply pressures and the need for tighter financial conditions, have further tilted implied probabilities slightly toward action at the September 15-16 FOMC meeting. At the same time, the July 9-3 hold vote with three dissents for tightening, mixed official comments on data dependence, and the pending August CPI release keep no-change odds nearly even. This balance reflects traders&#x27; real-money assessment of incoming indicators versus divided policy signals, with the next inflation print likely to tip the scales.</span><div role="tablist" aria-label="Market information"><div class="mb-4"><div data-arrow-visibility="off" class="relative"><div class="pk-scroll-fade-x-stateful flex gap-4 overflow-x-auto no-scrollbar" data-scroll-fade-initial=""><h2 class="contents"><button id="_R_2sqt4ltcnpfmi9arjabaivb_-tab-rules" type="button" class="text-heading-lg font-semibold cursor-pointer whitespace-nowrap shrink-0 transition-colors duration-150 text-pk-content-primary">Rules</button></h2><h2 class="contents"><button id="_R_2sqt4ltcnpfmi9arjabaivb_-tab-context" type="button" class="text-heading-lg font-semibold cursor-pointer whitespace-nowrap shrink-0 transition-colors duration-150 text-pk-content-secondary hover:text-pk-content-tertiary">Market Context</button></h2></div></div></div></div><div class="pt-1"><div role="tabpanel" id="_R_2sqt4ltcnpfmi9arjabaivb_-panel-rules" aria-labelledby="_R_2sqt4ltcnpfmi9arjabaivb_-tab-rules"><div><div><div class="relative w-full text-body-base wrap-break-word max-lg:w-[calc(100vw-2rem)] max-lg:max-w-[calc(100vw-2rem)] [&amp;_a]:text-pk-content-accent-brand"><span class="sr-only">The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.<br/><br/>This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve&#x27;s September 2026 meeting.<br/><br/>If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there&#x27;s a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)<br/><br/>The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for September 15-16, 2026 according to the official calendar: <a href="https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" class="hover:underline">https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm</a>.<br/><br/>The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at <a href="https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" class="hover:underline">https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm</a>.<br/><br/>This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their September meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the &quot;No change&quot; bracket.</span><span class="whitespace-pre-line transition-opacity duration-100 ease-out group-hover:opacity-60"><span style="display:-webkit-box;-webkit-line-clamp:7;-webkit-box-orient:vertical;overflow:hidden">The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.

This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve&#x27;s September 2026 meeting.

If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there&#x27;s a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)

The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for September 15-16, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.

The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.

This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their September meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the &quot;No change&quot; bracket.</span></span></div><div class="hidden lg:block mt-4"><p class="text-text text-body-base"><span class="font-semibold">Market Opened:</span> <!-- -->May 13, 2026, 5:10 PM ET</p></div><div class="my-4 sm:hidden"><div class="flex lg:flex-row max-lg:flex-col max-lg:w-full max-lg:gap-4"><div class="flex max-sm:justify-between max-sm:items-center"><div class="flex items-center gap-2"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="18px" height="18px" viewBox="0 0 18 18" class="size-6 text-pk-content-accent-brand"><path d="M13.25,12.5c-.414,0-.75-.336-.75-.75V3.75c0-.414,.336-.75,.75-.75s.75,.336,.75,.75V11.75c0,.414-.336,.75-.75,.75Z" fill="currentColor" data-color="color-2"></path><path d="M6.25,12.5c-.414,0-.75-.336-.75-.75V6.75c0-.414,.336-.75,.75-.75s.75,.336,.75,.75v5c0,.414-.336,.75-.75,.75Z" fill="currentColor" data-color="color-2"></path><path d="M9.75,12.5c-.414,0-.75-.336-.75-.75v-2c0-.414,.336-.75,.75-.75s.75,.336,.75,.75v2c0,.414-.336,.75-.75,.75Z" fill="currentColor" data-color="color-2"></path><path d="M15.25,15.5H4.75c-1.517,0-2.75-1.233-2.75-2.75V2.75c0-.414,.336-.75,.75-.75s.75,.336,.75,.75V12.75c0,.689,.561,1.25,1.25,1.25H15.25c.414,0,.75,.336,.75,.75s-.336,.75-.75,.75Z" fill="currentColor"></path></svg><span class="text-sm font-bold overflow-hidden whitespace-nowrap text-ellipsis">Volume</span></div><span class="text-sm overflow-hidden whitespace-nowrap text-ellipsis">$103,449,144</span></div><div class="flex max-sm:justify-between max-sm:items-center"><div class="flex items-center gap-2"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="18px" height="18px" viewBox="0 0 18 18" class="size-6 text-pk-content-accent-brand"><path d="M9,1C4.589,1,1,4.589,1,9s3.589,8,8,8,8-3.589,8-8S13.411,1,9,1Zm3.867,10.677c-.146,.21-.379,.323-.617,.323-.147,0-.296-.043-.426-.133l-3.25-2.25c-.203-.14-.323-.371-.323-.617V4.75c0-.414,.336-.75,.75-.75s.75,.336,.75,.75v3.857l2.927,2.026c.341,.236,.426,.703,.19,1.043Z" fill="currentColor"></path></svg><span class="text-sm font-bold overflow-hidden whitespace-nowrap text-ellipsis">End Date</span></div><span class="text-sm overflow-hidden whitespace-nowrap text-ellipsis">Sep 16, 2026</span></div><div class="flex max-sm:justify-between max-sm:items-center"><div class="flex items-center gap-2"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="18px" height="18px" viewBox="0 0 18 18" class="size-6 text-pk-content-accent-brand"><path d="M9,1C4.589,1,1,4.589,1,9s3.589,8,8,8,8-3.589,8-8S13.411,1,9,1Zm3.867,10.677c-.146,.21-.379,.323-.617,.323-.147,0-.296-.043-.426-.133l-3.25-2.25c-.203-.14-.323-.371-.323-.617V4.75c0-.414,.336-.75,.75-.75s.75,.336,.75,.75v3.857l2.927,2.026c.341,.236,.426,.703,.19,1.043Z" fill="currentColor"></path></svg><span class="text-sm font-bold overflow-hidden whitespace-nowrap text-ellipsis">Market Opened</span></div><span class="text-sm overflow-hidden whitespace-nowrap text-ellipsis">May 13, 2026, 5:10 PM ET</span></div></div></div><div class="my-4"><div class="flex max-w-full lg:flex-row lg:gap-4 max-lg:flex-col max-lg:gap-2"><div class="flex gap-4 rounded-xl shadow-pk-minimal-soft pr-6 py-3 items-center justify-start max-w-full overflow-hidden bg-pk-elevated flex-1 basis-0 min-w-0 min-h-16 pl-2"><div class="ml-2"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" id="logo" viewBox="0 0 137 34.316" width="36px"><path fill="#ff4a4a" d="M40.635,34.02H34.841a1.968,1.968,0,0,1-1.971-1.965V16.786L22.7,23.145a2.634,2.634,0,0,1-2.792,0L9.736,16.785v15.27A1.968,1.968,0,0,1,7.765,34.02H1.971A1.968,1.968,0,0,1,0,32.055V2.625A2.628,2.628,0,0,1,4.112.464L20.19,11.445a1.974,1.974,0,0,0,2.228,0L38.493.464a2.627,2.627,0,0,1,4.113,2.16V32.055a1.968,1.968,0,0,1-1.971,1.965" transform="translate(47.24 0.296)"></path><path fill="#ff4a4a" d="M38.511,34.054H2.615A2.612,2.612,0,0,1,0,31.444V1.957A1.959,1.959,0,0,1,1.961,0H7.728A1.959,1.959,0,0,1,9.689,1.957v22.43H31.437V1.957A1.958,1.958,0,0,1,33.4,0h5.767a1.959,1.959,0,0,1,1.961,1.957V31.445a2.612,2.612,0,0,1-2.615,2.609" transform="translate(0 0)"></path><path fill="#ff4a4a" d="M2.615,0h35.9a2.612,2.612,0,0,1,2.615,2.609V32.1a1.959,1.959,0,0,1-1.961,1.957H33.4A1.959,1.959,0,0,1,31.437,32.1V10.971a1.306,1.306,0,0,0-1.308-1.3H11a1.306,1.306,0,0,0-1.308,1.3V32.1a1.959,1.959,0,0,1-1.961,1.957H1.961A1.959,1.959,0,0,1,0,32.1V2.609A2.612,2.612,0,0,1,2.615,0" transform="translate(95.874 0)"></path><path fill="#ff4a4a" d="M0,1.943V7.749A1.953,1.953,0,0,0,1.963,9.692H7.729A1.953,1.953,0,0,0,9.692,7.749V1.943A1.953,1.953,0,0,0,7.729,0H1.963A1.953,1.953,0,0,0,0,1.943" transform="translate(111.591 15.979)"></path></svg></div><div class="flex-grow flex flex-col justify-center w-full overflow-hidden min-w-0"><p class="truncate text-pk-content-secondary text-body-base">Resolver</p><a class="block w-full truncate text-pk-content-accent-brand hover:text-pk-brand-600 text-body-base" href="https://polygonscan.com/address/0x69c47De9D4D3Dad79590d61b9e05918E03775f24" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">0x69c47De9D...</a></div></div></div></div><div class="my-4 w-full"><div><div class="flex w-full flex-col gap-4"><a href="https://oracle.uma.xyz/propose?project=Polymarket&amp;transactionHash=0x4dc393fddda237c497e8753cd3518bf770f651cc31d49cb04287c26abf930835&amp;eventIndex=21" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" class="text-inherit [-webkit-tap-highlight-color:var(--color-pk-alpha-black)]"><button class="inline-flex items-center cursor-pointer active:scale-[97%] transition duration-150 justify-center gap-2 whitespace-nowrap font-semibold focus-visible:outline-none focus-visible:ring-1 focus-visible:ring-ring disabled:pointer-events-none disabled:opacity-50 [&amp;_svg]:pointer-events-none [&amp;_svg]:shrink-0 border border-button-outline-border text-button-outline-text hover:bg-pk-hover-overlay-darker h-8 text-body-sm rounded-full px-2.5">Propose resolution</button></a></div></div></div></div></div></div><div role="tabpanel" id="_R_2sqt4ltcnpfmi9arjabaivb_-panel-context" aria-labelledby="_R_2sqt4ltcnpfmi9arjabaivb_-tab-context" hidden=""><script type="application/ld+json">{"@context":"https://schema.org","@type":"Article","mainEntityOfPage":{"@type":"WebPage","@id":"https://polymarket.com/event/fed-decision-in-september-762"},"headline":"Fed Decision in September? — Market Context","description":"Recent strong August jobs data, showing 162,000 payroll gains well above expectations alongside steady 4.","articleBody":"Recent strong August jobs data, showing 162,000 payroll gains well above expectations alongside steady 4.1% unemployment and upward revisions, has reinforced views of labor market resilience and supported trader bets on a 25 basis point hike. Hawkish signals from Chair Kevin Warsh at Jackson Hole, emphasizing persistent inflation above the 2% target amid supply pressures and the need for tighter financial conditions, have further tilted implied probabilities slightly toward action at the September 15-16 FOMC meeting. At the same time, the July 9-3 hold vote with three dissents for tightening, mixed official comments on data dependence, and the pending August CPI release keep no-change odds nearly even. This balance reflects traders' real-money assessment of incoming indicators versus divided policy signals, with the next inflation print likely to tip the scales.","image":"https://polymarket.com/api/og?eslug=fed-decision-in-september-762","datePublished":"2026-05-13T21:23:09.737806Z","dateModified":"2026-09-08T07:45:14.605Z","author":{"@type":"Organization","name":"Polymarket","url":"https://polymarket.com"},"publisher":{"@type":"Organization","name":"Polymarket","url":"https://polymarket.com","logo":{"@type":"ImageObject","url":"https://polymarket.com/icons/apple-touch-icon.png"}},"isPartOf":{"@id":"https://polymarket.com/event/fed-decision-in-september-762#event"}}</script><article><p class="text-sm text-pk-content-primary leading-6">Recent strong August jobs data, showing 162,000 payroll gains well above expectations alongside steady 4.1% unemployment and upward revisions, has reinforced views of labor market resilience and supported trader bets on a 25 basis point hike. Hawkish signals from Chair Kevin Warsh at Jackson Hole, emphasizing persistent inflation above the 2% target amid supply pressures and the need for tighter financial conditions, have further tilted implied probabilities slightly toward action at the September 15-16 FOMC meeting. At the same time, the July 9-3 hold vote with three dissents for tightening, mixed official comments on data dependence, and the pending August CPI release keep no-change odds nearly even. This balance reflects traders&#x27; real-money assessment of incoming indicators versus divided policy signals, with the next inflation print likely to tip the scales.</p><small class="text-pk-content-tertiary text-xs mt-2 block">Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves.<!-- --> · Updated <time dateTime="2026-09-08T07:45:14.605Z">Sep 8, 2026, 7:45 AM UTC</time></small><div class="mt-6"><div class="flex gap-3 relative"><div class="flex flex-col items-center shrink-0"><div class="h-[7px]"></div><div class="w-3 h-3 rounded-full border-2 border-pk-gray-300 bg-pk-surface shrink-0"></div><div class="w-px flex-1 bg-pk-border"></div></div><div class="flex-1 pb-8"><span class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary">Sep 4 2026</span><p class="text-body-base font-semibold text-pk-content-primary leading-5 mt-1">August U.S. jobs report shows strong employment gains</p><p class="flex items-center gap-1 text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary mt-0.5"><span>25 bps increase<!-- --> <!-- -->surges to<!-- --> <!-- -->55<!-- -->%</span><span class="inline-flex items-center gap-0.5 font-semibold text-pk-content-accent-green"><svg width="8" height="8" viewBox="0 0 12 12" fill="none" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><path d="M6.51952 2.5C6.28858 2.1 5.71123 2.1 5.48029 2.5L1.84298 8.8C1.61204 9.2 1.90072 9.7 2.3626 9.7L9.63721 9.7C10.0991 9.7 10.3878 9.2 10.1568 8.8L6.51952 2.5Z" fill="currentColor"></path></svg>27<!-- -->%</span></p><p class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-secondary leading-5 mt-1">The U.S. added 162,000 jobs in August, well above the expected 55,000, with unemployment steady at 4.1%. This strong labor market data raised hopes for a Fed rate hike in September, supporting the market&#x27;s increased pricing of a 25 basis points increase.</p><div class="flex items-center gap-1.5 mt-3"><a href="https://coingape.com/fomc-meeting-sept-2026-date-schedule-expectations-and-how-to-watch/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" class="flex items-center justify-center rounded-md overflow-hidden bg-white" style="width:28px;height:28px;border:1px solid var(--color-pk-border)" data-state="closed" data-slot="tooltip-trigger"><img src="https://www.google.com/s2/favicons?domain=coingape.com&amp;sz=64" alt="Coingape" referrerPolicy="no-referrer" width="18" height="18" loading="lazy" style="object-fit:contain"/></a></div></div></div><div class="flex gap-3 relative"><div class="flex flex-col items-center shrink-0"><div class="w-px h-[7px] bg-pk-border"></div><div class="w-3 h-3 rounded-full border-2 border-pk-gray-300 bg-pk-surface shrink-0"></div></div><div class="flex-1 pb-8"><span class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary">Sep 4 2026</span><p class="text-body-base font-semibold text-pk-content-primary leading-5 mt-1">Strong U.S. August jobs report raises odds of Fed rate hike in September</p><p class="flex items-center gap-1 text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary mt-0.5"><span>25 bps increase<!-- --> <!-- -->surges to<!-- --> <!-- -->56<!-- -->%</span><span class="inline-flex items-center gap-0.5 font-semibold text-pk-content-accent-green"><svg width="8" height="8" viewBox="0 0 12 12" fill="none" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><path d="M6.51952 2.5C6.28858 2.1 5.71123 2.1 5.48029 2.5L1.84298 8.8C1.61204 9.2 1.90072 9.7 2.3626 9.7L9.63721 9.7C10.0991 9.7 10.3878 9.2 10.1568 8.8L6.51952 2.5Z" fill="currentColor"></path></svg>28<!-- -->%</span></p><p class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-secondary leading-5 mt-1">The U.S. added 162,000 jobs in August, well above expectations, signaling a robust labor market. This data increased market-implied odds of a 25 bps rate hike at the September FOMC meeting, countering earlier signals for a hold and reflecting the Fed&#x27;s sensitivity to labor market strength in policy decisions.</p><div class="flex items-center gap-1.5 mt-3"><a href="https://www.forumnadlanusa.com/fed-rate-outlook-september-2026-waller-rate-hold/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" class="flex items-center justify-center rounded-md overflow-hidden bg-white" style="width:28px;height:28px;border:1px solid var(--color-pk-border)" data-state="closed" data-slot="tooltip-trigger"><img src="https://www.google.com/s2/favicons?domain=www.forumnadlanusa.com&amp;sz=64" alt="Forumnadlanusa" referrerPolicy="no-referrer" width="18" height="18" loading="lazy" style="object-fit:contain"/></a></div></div></div><div class="flex gap-3 relative !h-0 !overflow-hidden !p-0 !m-0" style="content-visibility:hidden" inert="" aria-hidden="true"><div class="flex flex-col items-center shrink-0"><div class="w-px h-[7px] bg-pk-border"></div><div class="w-3 h-3 rounded-full border-2 border-pk-gray-300 bg-pk-surface shrink-0"></div><div class="w-px flex-1 bg-pk-border"></div></div><div class="flex-1 pb-8"><span class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary">Sep 4 2026</span><p class="text-body-base font-semibold text-pk-content-primary leading-5 mt-1">August jobs report shows softer employment growth</p><p class="flex items-center gap-1 text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary mt-0.5"><span>No change<!-- --> <!-- -->drops to<!-- --> <!-- -->65<!-- -->%</span><span class="inline-flex items-center gap-0.5 font-semibold text-pk-content-accent-red"><svg width="8" height="8" viewBox="0 0 12 12" fill="none" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><path d="M6.51952 9.5C6.28858 9.9 5.71123 9.9 5.48029 9.5L1.84298 3.2C1.61204 2.8 1.90072 2.3 2.3626 2.3L9.63721 2.3C10.0991 2.3 10.3878 2.8 10.1568 3.2L6.51952 9.5Z" fill="currentColor"></path></svg>7<!-- -->%</span></p><p class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-secondary leading-5 mt-1">The August jobs report released on September 4 indicated softer employment growth, which reduced the urgency for a Fed rate hike and supported market expectations for the Fed to hold rates steady in September.</p><div class="flex items-center gap-1.5 mt-3"><a href="https://www.regardsofwallstreet.com/news/august-jobs-report-2026-september-4-date-forecast" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" class="flex items-center justify-center rounded-md overflow-hidden bg-white" style="width:28px;height:28px;border:1px solid var(--color-pk-border)" data-state="closed" data-slot="tooltip-trigger"><img src="https://www.google.com/s2/favicons?domain=www.regardsofwallstreet.com&amp;sz=64" alt="Regards of Wallstreet" referrerPolicy="no-referrer" width="18" height="18" loading="lazy" style="object-fit:contain"/></a></div></div></div><div class="flex gap-3 relative !h-0 !overflow-hidden !p-0 !m-0" style="content-visibility:hidden" inert="" aria-hidden="true"><div class="flex flex-col items-center shrink-0"><div class="w-px h-[7px] bg-pk-border"></div><div class="w-3 h-3 rounded-full border-2 border-pk-gray-300 bg-pk-surface shrink-0"></div><div class="w-px flex-1 bg-pk-border"></div></div><div class="flex-1 pb-8"><span class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary">Sep 3 2026</span><p class="text-body-base font-semibold text-pk-content-primary leading-5 mt-1">Fed Governor Christopher Waller signals preference to hold rates steady if inflation eases</p><p class="flex items-center gap-1 text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary mt-0.5"><span>No change<!-- --> <!-- -->surges to<!-- --> <!-- -->50<!-- -->%</span><span class="inline-flex items-center gap-0.5 font-semibold text-pk-content-accent-green"><svg width="8" height="8" viewBox="0 0 12 12" fill="none" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><path d="M6.51952 2.5C6.28858 2.1 5.71123 2.1 5.48029 2.5L1.84298 8.8C1.61204 9.2 1.90072 9.7 2.3626 9.7L9.63721 9.7C10.0991 9.7 10.3878 9.2 10.1568 8.8L6.51952 2.5Z" fill="currentColor"></path></svg>17<!-- -->%</span></p><p class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-secondary leading-5 mt-1">Governor Waller stated that current interest rates may be sufficient to cool inflation and that holding rates steady at the September meeting would not significantly alter the inflation path. His comments reduced immediate expectations for a hike, though strong August jobs data later shifted odds back toward a possible 25 bps increase.</p><div class="flex items-center gap-1.5 mt-3"><a href="https://www.coingabbar.com/en/crypto-currency-news/fed-rate-decision-september-2026-rate-hold-crypto-impact" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" class="flex items-center justify-center rounded-md overflow-hidden bg-white" style="width:28px;height:28px;border:1px solid var(--color-pk-border)" data-state="closed" data-slot="tooltip-trigger"><img src="https://www.google.com/s2/favicons?domain=www.coingabbar.com&amp;sz=64" alt="Coingabbar" referrerPolicy="no-referrer" width="18" height="18" loading="lazy" style="object-fit:contain"/></a></div></div></div><div class="flex gap-3 relative !h-0 !overflow-hidden !p-0 !m-0" style="content-visibility:hidden" inert="" aria-hidden="true"><div class="flex flex-col items-center shrink-0"><div class="w-px h-[7px] bg-pk-border"></div><div class="w-3 h-3 rounded-full border-2 border-pk-gray-300 bg-pk-surface shrink-0"></div><div class="w-px flex-1 bg-pk-border"></div></div><div class="flex-1 pb-8"><span class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary">Sep 3 2026</span><p class="text-body-base font-semibold text-pk-content-primary leading-5 mt-1">Fed Governor Waller speech highlights inflation above target and potential September rate hike</p><p class="flex items-center gap-1 text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary mt-0.5"><span>25 bps increase<!-- --> <!-- -->jumps to<!-- --> <!-- -->47<!-- -->%</span><span class="inline-flex items-center gap-0.5 font-semibold text-pk-content-accent-green"><svg width="8" height="8" viewBox="0 0 12 12" fill="none" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><path d="M6.51952 2.5C6.28858 2.1 5.71123 2.1 5.48029 2.5L1.84298 8.8C1.61204 9.2 1.90072 9.7 2.3626 9.7L9.63721 9.7C10.0991 9.7 10.3878 9.2 10.1568 8.8L6.51952 2.5Z" fill="currentColor"></path></svg>8<!-- -->%</span></p><p class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-secondary leading-5 mt-1">Governor Christopher Waller delivered a speech on September 3, 2026, emphasizing that inflation remains meaningfully above the Fed&#x27;s 2% goal and suggesting that a rate increase at the September 15-16 meeting may be appropriate. This reinforced market expectations for a 25 basis point hike.</p><div class="flex items-center gap-1.5 mt-3"><a href="https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/waller20260903a.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" class="flex items-center justify-center rounded-md overflow-hidden bg-white" style="width:28px;height:28px;border:1px solid var(--color-pk-border)" data-state="closed" data-slot="tooltip-trigger"><img src="https://www.google.com/s2/favicons?domain=www.federalreserve.gov&amp;sz=64" alt="Federal Reserve" referrerPolicy="no-referrer" width="18" height="18" loading="lazy" style="object-fit:contain"/></a></div></div></div><div class="flex gap-3 relative !h-0 !overflow-hidden !p-0 !m-0" style="content-visibility:hidden" inert="" aria-hidden="true"><div class="flex flex-col items-center shrink-0"><div class="w-px h-[7px] bg-pk-border"></div><div class="w-3 h-3 rounded-full border-2 border-pk-gray-300 bg-pk-surface shrink-0"></div><div class="w-px flex-1 bg-pk-border"></div></div><div class="flex-1 pb-8"><span class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary">Sep 3 2026</span><p class="text-body-base font-semibold text-pk-content-primary leading-5 mt-1">Federal Reserve official signals possible rate hike at September meeting</p><p class="flex items-center gap-1 text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary mt-0.5"><span>25 bps increase<!-- --> <!-- -->jumps to<!-- --> <!-- -->50<!-- -->%</span><span class="inline-flex items-center gap-0.5 font-semibold text-pk-content-accent-green"><svg width="8" height="8" viewBox="0 0 12 12" fill="none" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><path d="M6.51952 2.5C6.28858 2.1 5.71123 2.1 5.48029 2.5L1.84298 8.8C1.61204 9.2 1.90072 9.7 2.3626 9.7L9.63721 9.7C10.0991 9.7 10.3878 9.2 10.1568 8.8L6.51952 2.5Z" fill="currentColor"></path></svg>12<!-- -->%</span></p><p class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-secondary leading-5 mt-1">On September 3, 2026, Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller indicated that while inflation remains above target, recent data suggest a rate increase may be appropriate at the upcoming September 15-16 FOMC meeting, influencing market expectations for a 25 bps hike.</p><div class="flex items-center gap-1.5 mt-3"><a href="https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/files/waller20260903a.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" class="flex items-center justify-center rounded-md overflow-hidden bg-white" style="width:28px;height:28px;border:1px solid var(--color-pk-border)" data-state="closed" data-slot="tooltip-trigger"><img src="https://www.google.com/s2/favicons?domain=www.federalreserve.gov&amp;sz=64" alt="Federal Reserve" referrerPolicy="no-referrer" width="18" height="18" loading="lazy" style="object-fit:contain"/></a></div></div></div><div class="flex gap-3 relative !h-0 !overflow-hidden !p-0 !m-0" style="content-visibility:hidden" inert="" aria-hidden="true"><div class="flex flex-col items-center shrink-0"><div class="w-px h-[7px] bg-pk-border"></div><div class="w-3 h-3 rounded-full border-2 border-pk-gray-300 bg-pk-surface shrink-0"></div><div class="w-px flex-1 bg-pk-border"></div></div><div class="flex-1 pb-8"><span class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary">Sep 2 2026</span><p class="text-body-base font-semibold text-pk-content-primary leading-5 mt-1">Market shifts toward expecting a September 2026 Fed rate hike</p><p class="flex items-center gap-1 text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary mt-0.5"><span>25 bps increase<!-- --> <!-- -->surges to<!-- --> <!-- -->51<!-- -->%</span><span class="inline-flex items-center gap-0.5 font-semibold text-pk-content-accent-green"><svg width="8" height="8" viewBox="0 0 12 12" fill="none" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><path d="M6.51952 2.5C6.28858 2.1 5.71123 2.1 5.48029 2.5L1.84298 8.8C1.61204 9.2 1.90072 9.7 2.3626 9.7L9.63721 9.7C10.0991 9.7 10.3878 9.2 10.1568 8.8L6.51952 2.5Z" fill="currentColor"></path></svg>18<!-- -->%</span></p><p class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-secondary leading-5 mt-1">As the September FOMC meeting approached, market pricing indicated roughly a two-thirds probability of a 25 basis point rate increase, driven by persistent inflation and hawkish Fed signals from July.</p><div class="flex items-center gap-1.5 mt-3"><a href="https://www.bitrue.com/blog/fomc-meeting-september-2026" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" class="flex items-center justify-center rounded-md overflow-hidden bg-white" style="width:28px;height:28px;border:1px solid var(--color-pk-border)" data-state="closed" data-slot="tooltip-trigger"><img src="https://www.google.com/s2/favicons?domain=www.bitrue.com&amp;sz=64" alt="Bitrue" referrerPolicy="no-referrer" width="18" height="18" loading="lazy" style="object-fit:contain"/></a></div></div></div><div class="flex gap-3 relative !h-0 !overflow-hidden !p-0 !m-0" style="content-visibility:hidden" inert="" aria-hidden="true"><div class="flex flex-col items-center shrink-0"><div class="w-px h-[7px] bg-pk-border"></div><div class="w-3 h-3 rounded-full border-2 border-pk-gray-300 bg-pk-surface shrink-0"></div><div class="w-px flex-1 bg-pk-border"></div></div><div class="flex-1 pb-8"><span class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary">Sep 2 2026</span><p class="text-body-base font-semibold text-pk-content-primary leading-5 mt-1">Rising inflation and hawkish Fed signals boost odds of September rate hike</p><p class="flex items-center gap-1 text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary mt-0.5"><span>25 bps increase<!-- --> <!-- -->jumps to<!-- --> <!-- -->50<!-- -->%</span><span class="inline-flex items-center gap-0.5 font-semibold text-pk-content-accent-green"><svg width="8" height="8" viewBox="0 0 12 12" fill="none" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><path d="M6.51952 2.5C6.28858 2.1 5.71123 2.1 5.48029 2.5L1.84298 8.8C1.61204 9.2 1.90072 9.7 2.3626 9.7L9.63721 9.7C10.0991 9.7 10.3878 9.2 10.1568 8.8L6.51952 2.5Z" fill="currentColor"></path></svg>6<!-- -->%</span></p><p class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-secondary leading-5 mt-1">In early September 2026, persistent inflation and hawkish signals from Fed officials increased market pricing for a 25 bps rate hike at the September 15-16 meeting, reflected in rising probabilities and shifting investor sentiment.</p><div class="flex items-center gap-1.5 mt-3"><a href="https://www.cmegroup.com/trading/interest-rates/countdown-to-fomc.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" class="flex items-center justify-center rounded-md overflow-hidden bg-white" style="width:28px;height:28px;border:1px solid var(--color-pk-border)" data-state="closed" data-slot="tooltip-trigger"><img src="https://www.google.com/s2/favicons?domain=www.cmegroup.com&amp;sz=64" alt="CME FedWatch" referrerPolicy="no-referrer" width="18" height="18" loading="lazy" style="object-fit:contain"/></a></div></div></div><div class="flex gap-3 relative !h-0 !overflow-hidden !p-0 !m-0" style="content-visibility:hidden" inert="" aria-hidden="true"><div class="flex flex-col items-center shrink-0"><div class="w-px h-[7px] bg-pk-border"></div><div class="w-3 h-3 rounded-full border-2 border-pk-gray-300 bg-pk-surface shrink-0"></div><div class="w-px flex-1 bg-pk-border"></div></div><div class="flex-1 pb-8"><span class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary">Sep 2 2026</span><p class="text-body-base font-semibold text-pk-content-primary leading-5 mt-1">Rising geopolitical tensions keep inflation elevated, pressuring Fed policy outlook</p><p class="flex items-center gap-1 text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary mt-0.5"><span>25 bps increase<!-- --> <!-- -->surges to<!-- --> <!-- -->51<!-- -->%</span><span class="inline-flex items-center gap-0.5 font-semibold text-pk-content-accent-green"><svg width="8" height="8" viewBox="0 0 12 12" fill="none" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><path d="M6.51952 2.5C6.28858 2.1 5.71123 2.1 5.48029 2.5L1.84298 8.8C1.61204 9.2 1.90072 9.7 2.3626 9.7L9.63721 9.7C10.0991 9.7 10.3878 9.2 10.1568 8.8L6.51952 2.5Z" fill="currentColor"></path></svg>23<!-- -->%</span></p><p class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-secondary leading-5 mt-1">Ongoing conflict in the Middle East and resulting energy price shocks maintained inflationary pressures, limiting the Fed&#x27;s ability to ease policy and increasing market expectations for a rate hike at the September meeting.</p><div class="flex items-center gap-1.5 mt-3"><a href="https://blocknews.com/federal-reserve-holds-interest-rates-steady-here-is-why-markets-are-watching-september/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" class="flex items-center justify-center rounded-md overflow-hidden bg-white" style="width:28px;height:28px;border:1px solid var(--color-pk-border)" data-state="closed" data-slot="tooltip-trigger"><img src="https://www.google.com/s2/favicons?domain=blocknews.com&amp;sz=64" alt="BlockNews" referrerPolicy="no-referrer" width="18" height="18" loading="lazy" style="object-fit:contain"/></a></div></div></div><div class="flex gap-3 relative !h-0 !overflow-hidden !p-0 !m-0" style="content-visibility:hidden" inert="" aria-hidden="true"><div class="flex flex-col items-center shrink-0"><div class="w-px h-[7px] bg-pk-border"></div><div class="w-3 h-3 rounded-full border-2 border-pk-gray-300 bg-pk-surface shrink-0"></div><div class="w-px flex-1 bg-pk-border"></div></div><div class="flex-1 pb-8"><span class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary">Aug 31 2026</span><p class="text-body-base font-semibold text-pk-content-primary leading-5 mt-1">Federal Reserve holds interest rates steady amid persistent inflation and economic growth</p><p class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-secondary leading-5 mt-1">In late August, the Fed maintained its benchmark interest rate at 3.5%-3.75%, reaffirming its commitment to price stability despite ongoing inflation above target and solid economic activity. The decision followed the July meeting and preceded the September FOMC, with three dissenters again favoring a hike, underscoring internal Fed divisions.</p><div class="flex items-center gap-1.5 mt-3"><a href="https://www.ahmedabadmirror.com/us-federal-reserve-holds-int-rates-steady/81918754.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" class="flex items-center justify-center rounded-md overflow-hidden bg-white" style="width:28px;height:28px;border:1px solid var(--color-pk-border)" data-state="closed" data-slot="tooltip-trigger"><img src="https://www.google.com/s2/favicons?domain=www.ahmedabadmirror.com&amp;sz=64" alt="Ahmedabad Mirror" referrerPolicy="no-referrer" width="18" height="18" loading="lazy" style="object-fit:contain"/></a></div></div></div><div class="flex gap-3 relative !h-0 !overflow-hidden !p-0 !m-0" style="content-visibility:hidden" inert="" aria-hidden="true"><div class="flex flex-col items-center shrink-0"><div class="w-px h-[7px] bg-pk-border"></div><div class="w-3 h-3 rounded-full border-2 border-pk-gray-300 bg-pk-surface shrink-0"></div><div class="w-px flex-1 bg-pk-border"></div></div><div class="flex-1 pb-8"><span class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary">Aug 31 2026</span><p class="text-body-base font-semibold text-pk-content-primary leading-5 mt-1">Federal Reserve maintains rates steady at 3.50%-3.75% amid ongoing inflation and economic growth</p><p class="flex items-center gap-1 text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary mt-0.5"><span>25 bps increase<!-- --> <!-- -->surges to<!-- --> <!-- -->60<!-- -->%</span><span class="inline-flex items-center gap-0.5 font-semibold text-pk-content-accent-green"><svg width="8" height="8" viewBox="0 0 12 12" fill="none" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><path d="M6.51952 2.5C6.28858 2.1 5.71123 2.1 5.48029 2.5L1.84298 8.8C1.61204 9.2 1.90072 9.7 2.3626 9.7L9.63721 9.7C10.0991 9.7 10.3878 9.2 10.1568 8.8L6.51952 2.5Z" fill="currentColor"></path></svg>19<!-- -->%</span></p><p class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-secondary leading-5 mt-1">The Federal Reserve kept its benchmark interest rate unchanged at 3.50%-3.75% in late August, reaffirming its commitment to price stability despite elevated inflation and solid economic activity. The decision, supported by a 9-3 vote with dissenters favoring a hike, maintained market expectations for a potential 25 bps increase in the upcoming September meeting.</p><div class="flex items-center gap-1.5 mt-3"><a href="https://www.ahmedabadmirror.com/us-federal-reserve-holds-int-rates-steady/81918754.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" class="flex items-center justify-center rounded-md overflow-hidden bg-white" style="width:28px;height:28px;border:1px solid var(--color-pk-border)" data-state="closed" data-slot="tooltip-trigger"><img src="https://www.google.com/s2/favicons?domain=www.ahmedabadmirror.com&amp;sz=64" alt="Ahmedabad Mirror" referrerPolicy="no-referrer" width="18" height="18" loading="lazy" style="object-fit:contain"/></a></div></div></div><div class="flex gap-3 relative !h-0 !overflow-hidden !p-0 !m-0" style="content-visibility:hidden" inert="" aria-hidden="true"><div class="flex flex-col items-center shrink-0"><div class="w-px h-[7px] bg-pk-border"></div><div class="w-3 h-3 rounded-full border-2 border-pk-gray-300 bg-pk-surface shrink-0"></div><div class="w-px flex-1 bg-pk-border"></div></div><div class="flex-1 pb-8"><span class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary">Aug 31 2026</span><p class="text-body-base font-semibold text-pk-content-primary leading-5 mt-1">Federal Reserve Holds Rates Steady Amid Persistent Inflation and Global Uncertainty</p><p class="flex items-center gap-1 text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary mt-0.5"><span>No change<!-- --> <!-- -->dips to<!-- --> <!-- -->50<!-- -->%</span><span class="inline-flex items-center gap-0.5 font-semibold text-pk-content-accent-red"><svg width="8" height="8" viewBox="0 0 12 12" fill="none" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><path d="M6.51952 9.5C6.28858 9.9 5.71123 9.9 5.48029 9.5L1.84298 3.2C1.61204 2.8 1.90072 2.3 2.3626 2.3L9.63721 2.3C10.0991 2.3 10.3878 2.8 10.1568 3.2L6.51952 9.5Z" fill="currentColor"></path></svg>4<!-- -->%</span></p><p class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-secondary leading-5 mt-1">On August 31, the Federal Reserve maintained the federal funds rate at 3.50%-3.75%, reaffirming its commitment to price stability despite ongoing inflation above target and geopolitical risks from the Middle East conflict. The decision was supported by a 9-3 vote, with dissenters again favoring a rate hike, keeping markets attentive to a possible September increase.</p><div class="flex items-center gap-1.5 mt-3"><a href="https://www.ahmedabadmirror.com/us-federal-reserve-holds-int-rates-steady/81918754.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" class="flex items-center justify-center rounded-md overflow-hidden bg-white" style="width:28px;height:28px;border:1px solid var(--color-pk-border)" data-state="closed" data-slot="tooltip-trigger"><img src="https://www.google.com/s2/favicons?domain=www.ahmedabadmirror.com&amp;sz=64" alt="Ahmedabad Mirror" referrerPolicy="no-referrer" width="18" height="18" loading="lazy" style="object-fit:contain"/></a></div></div></div><div class="flex gap-3 relative !h-0 !overflow-hidden !p-0 !m-0" style="content-visibility:hidden" inert="" aria-hidden="true"><div class="flex flex-col items-center shrink-0"><div class="w-px h-[7px] bg-pk-border"></div><div class="w-3 h-3 rounded-full border-2 border-pk-gray-300 bg-pk-surface shrink-0"></div><div class="w-px flex-1 bg-pk-border"></div></div><div class="flex-1 pb-8"><span class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary">Aug 28 2026</span><p class="text-body-base font-semibold text-pk-content-primary leading-5 mt-1">Fed Chair Warsh&#x27;s Jackson Hole speech emphasizes data-driven policy and inflation fight</p><p class="flex items-center gap-1 text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary mt-0.5"><span>25 bps increase<!-- --> <!-- -->jumps to<!-- --> <!-- -->47<!-- -->%</span><span class="inline-flex items-center gap-0.5 font-semibold text-pk-content-accent-green"><svg width="8" height="8" viewBox="0 0 12 12" fill="none" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><path d="M6.51952 2.5C6.28858 2.1 5.71123 2.1 5.48029 2.5L1.84298 8.8C1.61204 9.2 1.90072 9.7 2.3626 9.7L9.63721 9.7C10.0991 9.7 10.3878 9.2 10.1568 8.8L6.51952 2.5Z" fill="currentColor"></path></svg>14<!-- -->%</span></p><p class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-secondary leading-5 mt-1">In his August 28 speech, Chair Warsh stressed the importance of relying on current data, maintaining the 2% inflation target, and prioritizing short-term interest rates. This reinforced market expectations for a cautious but hawkish approach, supporting the likelihood of a 25 bps hike in September.</p><div class="flex items-center gap-1.5 mt-3"><a href="https://www.prlog.org/13167441-creative-investment-research-on-fed-transparency-representation-and-monetary-policy-credibility.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" class="flex items-center justify-center rounded-md overflow-hidden bg-white" style="width:28px;height:28px;border:1px solid var(--color-pk-border)" data-state="closed" data-slot="tooltip-trigger"><img src="https://www.google.com/s2/favicons?domain=www.prlog.org&amp;sz=64" alt="Creative Investment Research" referrerPolicy="no-referrer" width="18" height="18" loading="lazy" style="object-fit:contain"/></a></div></div></div><div class="flex gap-3 relative !h-0 !overflow-hidden !p-0 !m-0" style="content-visibility:hidden" inert="" aria-hidden="true"><div class="flex flex-col items-center shrink-0"><div class="w-px h-[7px] bg-pk-border"></div><div class="w-3 h-3 rounded-full border-2 border-pk-gray-300 bg-pk-surface shrink-0"></div><div class="w-px flex-1 bg-pk-border"></div></div><div class="flex-1 pb-8"><span class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary">Aug 28 2026</span><p class="text-body-base font-semibold text-pk-content-primary leading-5 mt-1">Fed Chair Kevin Warsh Signals Hawkish Stance at Jackson Hole</p><p class="flex items-center gap-1 text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary mt-0.5"><span>25 bps increase<!-- --> <!-- -->surges to<!-- --> <!-- -->53<!-- -->%</span><span class="inline-flex items-center gap-0.5 font-semibold text-pk-content-accent-green"><svg width="8" height="8" viewBox="0 0 12 12" fill="none" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><path d="M6.51952 2.5C6.28858 2.1 5.71123 2.1 5.48029 2.5L1.84298 8.8C1.61204 9.2 1.90072 9.7 2.3626 9.7L9.63721 9.7C10.0991 9.7 10.3878 9.2 10.1568 8.8L6.51952 2.5Z" fill="currentColor"></path></svg>25<!-- -->%</span></p><p class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-secondary leading-5 mt-1">At the Jackson Hole Economic Symposium, Fed Chair Kevin Warsh emphasized that underlying inflation is not slowing and reiterated the importance of the PCE price index as the inflation gauge. His remarks were interpreted as hawkish, reinforcing market expectations for a 25 bps rate hike at the September FOMC meeting.</p><div class="flex items-center gap-1.5 mt-3"><a href="https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/interest-rate" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" class="flex items-center justify-center rounded-md overflow-hidden bg-white" style="width:28px;height:28px;border:1px solid var(--color-pk-border)" data-state="closed" data-slot="tooltip-trigger"><img src="https://www.google.com/s2/favicons?domain=tradingeconomics.com&amp;sz=64" alt="Trading Economics" referrerPolicy="no-referrer" width="18" height="18" loading="lazy" style="object-fit:contain"/></a></div></div></div><div class="flex gap-3 relative !h-0 !overflow-hidden !p-0 !m-0" style="content-visibility:hidden" inert="" aria-hidden="true"><div class="flex flex-col items-center shrink-0"><div class="w-px h-[7px] bg-pk-border"></div><div class="w-3 h-3 rounded-full border-2 border-pk-gray-300 bg-pk-surface shrink-0"></div><div class="w-px flex-1 bg-pk-border"></div></div><div class="flex-1 pb-8"><span class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary">Aug 28 2026</span><p class="text-body-base font-semibold text-pk-content-primary leading-5 mt-1">US Federal Reserve holds interest rates steady amid ongoing inflation and economic uncertainty</p><p class="flex items-center gap-1 text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary mt-0.5"><span>No change<!-- --> <!-- -->drops to<!-- --> <!-- -->41<!-- -->%</span><span class="inline-flex items-center gap-0.5 font-semibold text-pk-content-accent-red"><svg width="8" height="8" viewBox="0 0 12 12" fill="none" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><path d="M6.51952 9.5C6.28858 9.9 5.71123 9.9 5.48029 9.5L1.84298 3.2C1.61204 2.8 1.90072 2.3 2.3626 2.3L9.63721 2.3C10.0991 2.3 10.3878 2.8 10.1568 3.2L6.51952 9.5Z" fill="currentColor"></path></svg>9<!-- -->%</span></p><p class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-secondary leading-5 mt-1">The Fed maintained the federal funds rate at 3.5%-3.75% in late August, reaffirming its commitment to price stability despite elevated inflation and geopolitical risks. The decision was supported by a 9-3 vote, with dissenters favoring a hike, reflecting persistent inflation concerns.</p><div class="flex items-center gap-1.5 mt-3"><a href="https://www.ahmedabadmirror.com/us-federal-reserve-holds-int-rates-steady/81918754.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" class="flex items-center justify-center rounded-md overflow-hidden bg-white" style="width:28px;height:28px;border:1px solid var(--color-pk-border)" data-state="closed" data-slot="tooltip-trigger"><img src="https://www.google.com/s2/favicons?domain=www.ahmedabadmirror.com&amp;sz=64" alt="Ahmedabad Mirror" referrerPolicy="no-referrer" width="18" height="18" loading="lazy" style="object-fit:contain"/></a></div></div></div><div class="flex gap-3 relative !h-0 !overflow-hidden !p-0 !m-0" style="content-visibility:hidden" inert="" aria-hidden="true"><div class="flex flex-col items-center shrink-0"><div class="w-px h-[7px] bg-pk-border"></div><div class="w-3 h-3 rounded-full border-2 border-pk-gray-300 bg-pk-surface shrink-0"></div><div class="w-px flex-1 bg-pk-border"></div></div><div class="flex-1 pb-8"><span class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary">Aug 28 2026</span><p class="text-body-base font-semibold text-pk-content-primary leading-5 mt-1">Federal Reserve holds interest rates steady amid political and economic pressures</p><p class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-secondary leading-5 mt-1">The Fed maintained the federal funds rate at 3.50%-3.75% in August, despite ongoing inflation above target and political pressure for cuts. The decision underscored the Fed&#x27;s commitment to price stability and contributed to market expectations of a 25 bps increase in September.</p><div class="flex items-center gap-1.5 mt-3"><a href="https://www.ahmedabadmirror.com/us-federal-reserve-holds-int-rates-steady/81918754.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" class="flex items-center justify-center rounded-md overflow-hidden bg-white" style="width:28px;height:28px;border:1px solid var(--color-pk-border)" data-state="closed" data-slot="tooltip-trigger"><img src="https://www.google.com/s2/favicons?domain=www.ahmedabadmirror.com&amp;sz=64" alt="Ahmedabad Mirror" referrerPolicy="no-referrer" width="18" height="18" loading="lazy" style="object-fit:contain"/></a></div></div></div><div class="flex gap-3 relative !h-0 !overflow-hidden !p-0 !m-0" style="content-visibility:hidden" inert="" aria-hidden="true"><div class="flex flex-col items-center shrink-0"><div class="w-px h-[7px] bg-pk-border"></div><div class="w-3 h-3 rounded-full border-2 border-pk-gray-300 bg-pk-surface shrink-0"></div><div class="w-px flex-1 bg-pk-border"></div></div><div class="flex-1 pb-8"><span class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary">Aug 28 2026</span><p class="text-body-base font-semibold text-pk-content-primary leading-5 mt-1">Fed Chair Kevin Warsh delivers hawkish keynote at Jackson Hole</p><p class="flex items-center gap-1 text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary mt-0.5"><span>25 bps increase<!-- --> <!-- -->surges to<!-- --> <!-- -->60<!-- -->%</span><span class="inline-flex items-center gap-0.5 font-semibold text-pk-content-accent-green"><svg width="8" height="8" viewBox="0 0 12 12" fill="none" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><path d="M6.51952 2.5C6.28858 2.1 5.71123 2.1 5.48029 2.5L1.84298 8.8C1.61204 9.2 1.90072 9.7 2.3626 9.7L9.63721 9.7C10.0991 9.7 10.3878 9.2 10.1568 8.8L6.51952 2.5Z" fill="currentColor"></path></svg>25<!-- -->%</span></p><p class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-secondary leading-5 mt-1">In his first Jackson Hole speech as Fed Chair, Kevin Warsh emphasized the Fed&#x27;s commitment to returning inflation to 2%, signaling that rate hikes remain on the table. His hawkish tone increased market expectations for a September rate hike above 50%.</p><div class="flex items-center gap-1.5 mt-3"><a href="https://www.regardsofwallstreet.com/news/jackson-hole-2026-dates-schedule-warsh-first-speech" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" class="flex items-center justify-center rounded-md overflow-hidden bg-white" style="width:28px;height:28px;border:1px solid var(--color-pk-border)" data-state="closed" data-slot="tooltip-trigger"><img src="https://www.google.com/s2/favicons?domain=www.regardsofwallstreet.com&amp;sz=64" alt="Regards of Wallstreet" referrerPolicy="no-referrer" width="18" height="18" loading="lazy" style="object-fit:contain"/></a></div></div></div><div class="flex gap-3 relative !h-0 !overflow-hidden !p-0 !m-0" style="content-visibility:hidden" inert="" aria-hidden="true"><div class="flex flex-col items-center shrink-0"><div class="w-px h-[7px] bg-pk-border"></div><div class="w-3 h-3 rounded-full border-2 border-pk-gray-300 bg-pk-surface shrink-0"></div><div class="w-px flex-1 bg-pk-border"></div></div><div class="flex-1 pb-8"><span class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary">Aug 28 2026</span><p class="text-body-base font-semibold text-pk-content-primary leading-5 mt-1">New Fed Chair Kevin Warsh signals hawkish stance in first Jackson Hole speech</p><p class="flex items-center gap-1 text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary mt-0.5"><span>25 bps increase<!-- --> <!-- -->jumps to<!-- --> <!-- -->45<!-- -->%</span><span class="inline-flex items-center gap-0.5 font-semibold text-pk-content-accent-green"><svg width="8" height="8" viewBox="0 0 12 12" fill="none" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><path d="M6.51952 2.5C6.28858 2.1 5.71123 2.1 5.48029 2.5L1.84298 8.8C1.61204 9.2 1.90072 9.7 2.3626 9.7L9.63721 9.7C10.0991 9.7 10.3878 9.2 10.1568 8.8L6.51952 2.5Z" fill="currentColor"></path></svg>8<!-- -->%</span></p><p class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-secondary leading-5 mt-1">At the 2026 Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium, Fed Chair Kevin Warsh gave his first keynote speech, signaling a firm stance against inflation and supporting the possibility of future rate hikes. This speech increased market expectations for a September rate increase.</p><div class="flex items-center gap-1.5 mt-3"><a href="https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/warsh20260828a.htm" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" class="flex items-center justify-center rounded-md overflow-hidden bg-white" style="width:28px;height:28px;border:1px solid var(--color-pk-border)" data-state="closed" data-slot="tooltip-trigger"><img src="https://www.google.com/s2/favicons?domain=www.federalreserve.gov&amp;sz=64" alt="Federal Reserve" referrerPolicy="no-referrer" width="18" height="18" loading="lazy" style="object-fit:contain"/></a><a href="https://www.lapost.com/tag/monetary-policy" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" class="flex items-center justify-center rounded-md overflow-hidden bg-white" style="width:28px;height:28px;border:1px solid var(--color-pk-border)" data-state="closed" data-slot="tooltip-trigger"><img src="https://www.google.com/s2/favicons?domain=www.lapost.com&amp;sz=64" alt="LA Post" referrerPolicy="no-referrer" width="18" height="18" loading="lazy" style="object-fit:contain"/></a></div></div></div><div class="flex gap-3 relative !h-0 !overflow-hidden !p-0 !m-0" style="content-visibility:hidden" inert="" aria-hidden="true"><div class="flex flex-col items-center shrink-0"><div class="w-px h-[7px] bg-pk-border"></div><div class="w-3 h-3 rounded-full border-2 border-pk-gray-300 bg-pk-surface shrink-0"></div><div class="w-px flex-1 bg-pk-border"></div></div><div class="flex-1 pb-8"><span class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary">Aug 27 2026</span><p class="text-body-base font-semibold text-pk-content-primary leading-5 mt-1">Federal Reserve hosts Jackson Hole Economic Symposium focusing on financial innovation and policy</p><p class="flex items-center gap-1 text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary mt-0.5"><span>No change<!-- --> <!-- -->rises to<!-- --> <!-- -->60<!-- -->%</span><span class="inline-flex items-center gap-0.5 font-semibold text-pk-content-accent-green"><svg width="8" height="8" viewBox="0 0 12 12" fill="none" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><path d="M6.51952 2.5C6.28858 2.1 5.71123 2.1 5.48029 2.5L1.84298 8.8C1.61204 9.2 1.90072 9.7 2.3626 9.7L9.63721 9.7C10.0991 9.7 10.3878 9.2 10.1568 8.8L6.51952 2.5Z" fill="currentColor"></path></svg>1<!-- -->%</span></p><p class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-secondary leading-5 mt-1">From August 27 to 29, 2026, the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City hosted the Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium, emphasizing financial innovation and its implications for payments and monetary policy. This event influenced market sentiment by highlighting ongoing policy considerations amid inflation and economic uncertainty ahead of the September FOMC meeting.</p><div class="flex items-center gap-1.5 mt-3"><a href="https://www.financecalendar.com/event/jackson-hole-economic-symposium-2026/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" class="flex items-center justify-center rounded-md overflow-hidden bg-white" style="width:28px;height:28px;border:1px solid var(--color-pk-border)" data-state="closed" data-slot="tooltip-trigger"><img src="https://www.google.com/s2/favicons?domain=www.financecalendar.com&amp;sz=64" alt="FinanceCalendar" referrerPolicy="no-referrer" width="18" height="18" loading="lazy" style="object-fit:contain"/></a></div></div></div><div class="flex gap-3 relative !h-0 !overflow-hidden !p-0 !m-0" style="content-visibility:hidden" inert="" aria-hidden="true"><div class="flex flex-col items-center shrink-0"><div class="w-px h-[7px] bg-pk-border"></div><div class="w-3 h-3 rounded-full border-2 border-pk-gray-300 bg-pk-surface shrink-0"></div><div class="w-px flex-1 bg-pk-border"></div></div><div class="flex-1 pb-8"><span class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary">Aug 27 2026</span><p class="text-body-base font-semibold text-pk-content-primary leading-5 mt-1">Jackson Hole Economic Symposium focuses on financial innovation and policy implications</p><p class="flex items-center gap-1 text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary mt-0.5"><span>25 bps increase<!-- --> <!-- -->drops to<!-- --> <!-- -->27<!-- -->%</span><span class="inline-flex items-center gap-0.5 font-semibold text-pk-content-accent-red"><svg width="8" height="8" viewBox="0 0 12 12" fill="none" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><path d="M6.51952 9.5C6.28858 9.9 5.71123 9.9 5.48029 9.5L1.84298 3.2C1.61204 2.8 1.90072 2.3 2.3626 2.3L9.63721 2.3C10.0991 2.3 10.3878 2.8 10.1568 3.2L6.51952 9.5Z" fill="currentColor"></path></svg>8<!-- -->%</span></p><p class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-secondary leading-5 mt-1">The annual Jackson Hole Symposium brought together central bankers and policymakers to discuss financial innovation and its implications for monetary policy, influencing market expectations ahead of the September FOMC meeting.</p><div class="flex items-center gap-1.5 mt-3"><a href="https://www.financecalendar.com/event/jackson-hole-economic-symposium-2026/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" class="flex items-center justify-center rounded-md overflow-hidden bg-white" style="width:28px;height:28px;border:1px solid var(--color-pk-border)" data-state="closed" data-slot="tooltip-trigger"><img src="https://www.google.com/s2/favicons?domain=www.financecalendar.com&amp;sz=64" alt="Finance Calendar" referrerPolicy="no-referrer" width="18" height="18" loading="lazy" style="object-fit:contain"/></a></div></div></div><div class="flex gap-3 relative !h-0 !overflow-hidden !p-0 !m-0" style="content-visibility:hidden" inert="" aria-hidden="true"><div class="flex flex-col items-center shrink-0"><div class="w-px h-[7px] bg-pk-border"></div><div class="w-3 h-3 rounded-full border-2 border-pk-gray-300 bg-pk-surface shrink-0"></div><div class="w-px flex-1 bg-pk-border"></div></div><div class="flex-1 pb-8"><span class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary">Aug 27 2026</span><p class="text-body-base font-semibold text-pk-content-primary leading-5 mt-1">New Fed Chair Kevin Warsh Faces Pressure to Clarify Inflation and Rate Views</p><p class="flex items-center gap-1 text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary mt-0.5"><span>25 bps increase<!-- --> <!-- -->surges to<!-- --> <!-- -->52<!-- -->%</span><span class="inline-flex items-center gap-0.5 font-semibold text-pk-content-accent-green"><svg width="8" height="8" viewBox="0 0 12 12" fill="none" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><path d="M6.51952 2.5C6.28858 2.1 5.71123 2.1 5.48029 2.5L1.84298 8.8C1.61204 9.2 1.90072 9.7 2.3626 9.7L9.63721 9.7C10.0991 9.7 10.3878 9.2 10.1568 8.8L6.51952 2.5Z" fill="currentColor"></path></svg>21<!-- -->%</span></p><p class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-secondary leading-5 mt-1">On August 27, 2026, media coverage highlighted Fed Chair Kevin Warsh&#x27;s cautious communication style amid ongoing inflation concerns and political pressures. This uncertainty contributed to market volatility and influenced the rising odds of a 25 bps rate increase at the September meeting.</p><div class="flex items-center gap-1.5 mt-3"><a href="https://www.lapost.com/tag/monetary-policy" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" class="flex items-center justify-center rounded-md overflow-hidden bg-white" style="width:28px;height:28px;border:1px solid var(--color-pk-border)" data-state="closed" data-slot="tooltip-trigger"><img src="https://www.google.com/s2/favicons?domain=www.lapost.com&amp;sz=64" alt="LA Post" referrerPolicy="no-referrer" width="18" height="18" loading="lazy" style="object-fit:contain"/></a></div></div></div><div class="flex gap-3 relative !h-0 !overflow-hidden !p-0 !m-0" style="content-visibility:hidden" inert="" aria-hidden="true"><div class="flex flex-col items-center shrink-0"><div class="w-px h-[7px] bg-pk-border"></div><div class="w-3 h-3 rounded-full border-2 border-pk-gray-300 bg-pk-surface shrink-0"></div><div class="w-px flex-1 bg-pk-border"></div></div><div class="flex-1 pb-8"><span class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary">Aug 27 2026</span><p class="text-body-base font-semibold text-pk-content-primary leading-5 mt-1">Jackson Hole Economic Symposium 2026 sets stage for September Fed decision</p><p class="flex items-center gap-1 text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary mt-0.5"><span>25 bps increase<!-- --> <!-- -->jumps to<!-- --> <!-- -->55<!-- -->%</span><span class="inline-flex items-center gap-0.5 font-semibold text-pk-content-accent-green"><svg width="8" height="8" viewBox="0 0 12 12" fill="none" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><path d="M6.51952 2.5C6.28858 2.1 5.71123 2.1 5.48029 2.5L1.84298 8.8C1.61204 9.2 1.90072 9.7 2.3626 9.7L9.63721 9.7C10.0991 9.7 10.3878 9.2 10.1568 8.8L6.51952 2.5Z" fill="currentColor"></path></svg>11<!-- -->%</span></p><p class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-secondary leading-5 mt-1">The Jackson Hole Economic Symposium held August 27-29, 2026, provided a platform for Federal Reserve officials and economists to discuss inflation risks and monetary policy, influencing market expectations for a possible rate hike at the September FOMC meeting.</p><div class="flex items-center gap-1.5 mt-3"><a href="https://www.financecalendar.com/event/jackson-hole-economic-symposium-2026/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" class="flex items-center justify-center rounded-md overflow-hidden bg-white" style="width:28px;height:28px;border:1px solid var(--color-pk-border)" data-state="closed" data-slot="tooltip-trigger"><img src="https://www.google.com/s2/favicons?domain=www.financecalendar.com&amp;sz=64" alt="Finance Calendar" referrerPolicy="no-referrer" width="18" height="18" loading="lazy" style="object-fit:contain"/></a></div></div></div><div class="flex gap-3 relative !h-0 !overflow-hidden !p-0 !m-0" style="content-visibility:hidden" inert="" aria-hidden="true"><div class="flex flex-col items-center shrink-0"><div class="w-px h-[7px] bg-pk-border"></div><div class="w-3 h-3 rounded-full border-2 border-pk-gray-300 bg-pk-surface shrink-0"></div><div class="w-px flex-1 bg-pk-border"></div></div><div class="flex-1 pb-8"><span class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary">Aug 27 2026</span><p class="text-body-base font-semibold text-pk-content-primary leading-5 mt-1">New Fed Chair Kevin Warsh adopts cautious communication style amid policy crossroads</p><p class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-secondary leading-5 mt-1">Kevin Warsh, who took over as Federal Reserve Chair in May 2026, has changed the Fed&#x27;s communication approach by providing less explicit guidance on the economy and inflation, increasing market uncertainty about future rate moves ahead of the September meeting.</p><div class="flex items-center gap-1.5 mt-3"><a href="https://www.lapost.com/tag/monetary-policy" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" class="flex items-center justify-center rounded-md overflow-hidden bg-white" style="width:28px;height:28px;border:1px solid var(--color-pk-border)" data-state="closed" data-slot="tooltip-trigger"><img src="https://www.google.com/s2/favicons?domain=www.lapost.com&amp;sz=64" alt="LA Post" referrerPolicy="no-referrer" width="18" height="18" loading="lazy" style="object-fit:contain"/></a></div></div></div><div class="flex gap-3 relative !h-0 !overflow-hidden !p-0 !m-0" style="content-visibility:hidden" inert="" aria-hidden="true"><div class="flex flex-col items-center shrink-0"><div class="w-px h-[7px] bg-pk-border"></div><div class="w-3 h-3 rounded-full border-2 border-pk-gray-300 bg-pk-surface shrink-0"></div><div class="w-px flex-1 bg-pk-border"></div></div><div class="flex-1 pb-8"><span class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary">Aug 27 2026</span><p class="text-body-base font-semibold text-pk-content-primary leading-5 mt-1">Jackson Hole Economic Symposium focuses on financial innovation and policy implications</p><p class="flex items-center gap-1 text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary mt-0.5"><span>No change<!-- --> <!-- -->jumps to<!-- --> <!-- -->70<!-- -->%</span><span class="inline-flex items-center gap-0.5 font-semibold text-pk-content-accent-green"><svg width="8" height="8" viewBox="0 0 12 12" fill="none" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><path d="M6.51952 2.5C6.28858 2.1 5.71123 2.1 5.48029 2.5L1.84298 8.8C1.61204 9.2 1.90072 9.7 2.3626 9.7L9.63721 9.7C10.0991 9.7 10.3878 9.2 10.1568 8.8L6.51952 2.5Z" fill="currentColor"></path></svg>11<!-- -->%</span></p><p class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-secondary leading-5 mt-1">The Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City hosted the 2026 Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium, where discussions on financial innovation and monetary policy implications took place. While not directly causing immediate price moves, the event shaped market expectations about the Fed&#x27;s cautious approach and potential future rate decisions.</p><div class="flex items-center gap-1.5 mt-3"><a href="https://www.financecalendar.com/event/jackson-hole-economic-symposium-2026/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" class="flex items-center justify-center rounded-md overflow-hidden bg-white" style="width:28px;height:28px;border:1px solid var(--color-pk-border)" data-state="closed" data-slot="tooltip-trigger"><img src="https://www.google.com/s2/favicons?domain=www.financecalendar.com&amp;sz=64" alt="FinanceCalendar" referrerPolicy="no-referrer" width="18" height="18" loading="lazy" style="object-fit:contain"/></a></div></div></div><div class="flex gap-3 relative !h-0 !overflow-hidden !p-0 !m-0" style="content-visibility:hidden" inert="" aria-hidden="true"><div class="flex flex-col items-center shrink-0"><div class="w-px h-[7px] bg-pk-border"></div><div class="w-3 h-3 rounded-full border-2 border-pk-gray-300 bg-pk-surface shrink-0"></div><div class="w-px flex-1 bg-pk-border"></div></div><div class="flex-1 pb-8"><span class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary">Aug 27 2026</span><p class="text-body-base font-semibold text-pk-content-primary leading-5 mt-1">Federal Reserve to host Jackson Hole Economic Symposium focusing on financial innovation</p><p class="flex items-center gap-1 text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary mt-0.5"><span>No change<!-- --> <!-- -->surges to<!-- --> <!-- -->69<!-- -->%</span><span class="inline-flex items-center gap-0.5 font-semibold text-pk-content-accent-green"><svg width="8" height="8" viewBox="0 0 12 12" fill="none" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><path d="M6.51952 2.5C6.28858 2.1 5.71123 2.1 5.48029 2.5L1.84298 8.8C1.61204 9.2 1.90072 9.7 2.3626 9.7L9.63721 9.7C10.0991 9.7 10.3878 9.2 10.1568 8.8L6.51952 2.5Z" fill="currentColor"></path></svg>16<!-- -->%</span></p><p class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-secondary leading-5 mt-1">The upcoming Jackson Hole Symposium from August 27-29 is a key event where Fed officials discuss monetary policy and economic outlook, influencing market expectations ahead of the September FOMC meeting. Anticipation of insights from this event contributed to price movements favoring no change or a modest rate increase.</p><div class="flex items-center gap-1.5 mt-3"><a href="https://www.financecalendar.com/event/jackson-hole-economic-symposium-2026/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" class="flex items-center justify-center rounded-md overflow-hidden bg-white" style="width:28px;height:28px;border:1px solid var(--color-pk-border)" data-state="closed" data-slot="tooltip-trigger"><img src="https://www.google.com/s2/favicons?domain=www.financecalendar.com&amp;sz=64" alt="Finance Calendar" referrerPolicy="no-referrer" width="18" height="18" loading="lazy" style="object-fit:contain"/></a></div></div></div><div class="flex gap-3 relative !h-0 !overflow-hidden !p-0 !m-0" style="content-visibility:hidden" inert="" aria-hidden="true"><div class="flex flex-col items-center shrink-0"><div class="w-px h-[7px] bg-pk-border"></div><div class="w-3 h-3 rounded-full border-2 border-pk-gray-300 bg-pk-surface shrink-0"></div><div class="w-px flex-1 bg-pk-border"></div></div><div class="flex-1 pb-8"><span class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary">Aug 26 2026</span><p class="text-body-base font-semibold text-pk-content-primary leading-5 mt-1">Second-quarter GDP revision and PCE inflation report ahead of September FOMC</p><p class="flex items-center gap-1 text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary mt-0.5"><span>25 bps increase<!-- --> <!-- -->dips to<!-- --> <!-- -->47<!-- -->%</span><span class="inline-flex items-center gap-0.5 font-semibold text-pk-content-accent-red"><svg width="8" height="8" viewBox="0 0 12 12" fill="none" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><path d="M6.51952 9.5C6.28858 9.9 5.71123 9.9 5.48029 9.5L1.84298 3.2C1.61204 2.8 1.90072 2.3 2.3626 2.3L9.63721 2.3C10.0991 2.3 10.3878 2.8 10.1568 3.2L6.51952 9.5Z" fill="currentColor"></path></svg>2<!-- -->%</span></p><p class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-secondary leading-5 mt-1">The upcoming revised GDP estimate and PCE inflation report on August 26 are key data points that markets are watching closely to assess economic momentum and inflation trends ahead of the September FOMC meeting, influencing rate hike expectations.</p><div class="flex items-center gap-1.5 mt-3"><a href="https://gomarkets.com/en-au/articles/us-market-drivers-august-2026" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" class="flex items-center justify-center rounded-md overflow-hidden bg-white" style="width:28px;height:28px;border:1px solid var(--color-pk-border)" data-state="closed" data-slot="tooltip-trigger"><img src="https://www.google.com/s2/favicons?domain=gomarkets.com&amp;sz=64" alt="GO Markets" referrerPolicy="no-referrer" width="18" height="18" loading="lazy" style="object-fit:contain"/></a></div></div></div><div class="flex gap-3 relative !h-0 !overflow-hidden !p-0 !m-0" style="content-visibility:hidden" inert="" aria-hidden="true"><div class="flex flex-col items-center shrink-0"><div class="w-px h-[7px] bg-pk-border"></div><div class="w-3 h-3 rounded-full border-2 border-pk-gray-300 bg-pk-surface shrink-0"></div><div class="w-px flex-1 bg-pk-border"></div></div><div class="flex-1 pb-8"><span class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary">Aug 26 2026</span><p class="text-body-base font-semibold text-pk-content-primary leading-5 mt-1">Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index Holds Steady in July</p><p class="flex items-center gap-1 text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary mt-0.5"><span>25 bps increase<!-- --> <!-- -->surges to<!-- --> <!-- -->53<!-- -->%</span><span class="inline-flex items-center gap-0.5 font-semibold text-pk-content-accent-green"><svg width="8" height="8" viewBox="0 0 12 12" fill="none" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><path d="M6.51952 2.5C6.28858 2.1 5.71123 2.1 5.48029 2.5L1.84298 8.8C1.61204 9.2 1.90072 9.7 2.3626 9.7L9.63721 9.7C10.0991 9.7 10.3878 9.2 10.1568 8.8L6.51952 2.5Z" fill="currentColor"></path></svg>25<!-- -->%</span></p><p class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-secondary leading-5 mt-1">The PCE price index, the Fed&#x27;s preferred inflation measure, increased 0.2% in July 2026, maintaining an annual rate of 3.7%, unchanged from June. This steady inflation reading contributed to market expectations of a likely 25 bps rate hike in September to address persistent inflation pressures.</p><div class="flex items-center gap-1.5 mt-3"><a href="https://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2026/aug/26/inflation-index-prized-fed-holds-steady-july/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" class="flex items-center justify-center rounded-md overflow-hidden bg-white" style="width:28px;height:28px;border:1px solid var(--color-pk-border)" data-state="closed" data-slot="tooltip-trigger"><img src="https://www.google.com/s2/favicons?domain=www.washingtontimes.com&amp;sz=64" alt="The Washington Times" referrerPolicy="no-referrer" width="18" height="18" loading="lazy" style="object-fit:contain"/></a></div></div></div><div class="flex gap-3 relative !h-0 !overflow-hidden !p-0 !m-0" style="content-visibility:hidden" inert="" aria-hidden="true"><div class="flex flex-col items-center shrink-0"><div class="w-px h-[7px] bg-pk-border"></div><div class="w-3 h-3 rounded-full border-2 border-pk-gray-300 bg-pk-surface shrink-0"></div><div class="w-px flex-1 bg-pk-border"></div></div><div class="flex-1 pb-8"><span class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary">Aug 26 2026</span><p class="text-body-base font-semibold text-pk-content-primary leading-5 mt-1">Atlanta Fed GDPNow model shows stronger-than-expected Q3 growth at 4.6%</p><p class="flex items-center gap-1 text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary mt-0.5"><span>25 bps increase<!-- --> <!-- -->jumps to<!-- --> <!-- -->33<!-- -->%</span><span class="inline-flex items-center gap-0.5 font-semibold text-pk-content-accent-green"><svg width="8" height="8" viewBox="0 0 12 12" fill="none" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><path d="M6.51952 2.5C6.28858 2.1 5.71123 2.1 5.48029 2.5L1.84298 8.8C1.61204 9.2 1.90072 9.7 2.3626 9.7L9.63721 9.7C10.0991 9.7 10.3878 9.2 10.1568 8.8L6.51952 2.5Z" fill="currentColor"></path></svg>5<!-- -->%</span></p><p class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-secondary leading-5 mt-1">The Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta&#x27;s GDPNow model revised its Q3 GDP growth estimate upward to 4.6%, signaling robust economic momentum. This stronger growth outlook reduced expectations for imminent rate cuts and supported market pricing for a possible 25 bps hike in September.</p><div class="flex items-center gap-1.5 mt-3"><a href="https://finobird.com/calendar/economic/us-federal-reserve-bank-of-atlanta-gdpnow-2026-08-26/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" class="flex items-center justify-center rounded-md overflow-hidden bg-white" style="width:28px;height:28px;border:1px solid var(--color-pk-border)" data-state="closed" data-slot="tooltip-trigger"><img src="https://www.google.com/s2/favicons?domain=finobird.com&amp;sz=64" alt="Finobird" referrerPolicy="no-referrer" width="18" height="18" loading="lazy" style="object-fit:contain"/></a></div></div></div><div class="flex gap-3 relative !h-0 !overflow-hidden !p-0 !m-0" style="content-visibility:hidden" inert="" aria-hidden="true"><div class="flex flex-col items-center shrink-0"><div class="w-px h-[7px] bg-pk-border"></div><div class="w-3 h-3 rounded-full border-2 border-pk-gray-300 bg-pk-surface shrink-0"></div><div class="w-px flex-1 bg-pk-border"></div></div><div class="flex-1 pb-8"><span class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary">Aug 26 2026</span><p class="text-body-base font-semibold text-pk-content-primary leading-5 mt-1">July PCE inflation data released amid mixed economic signals</p><p class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-secondary leading-5 mt-1">The release of July Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) data on August 26 showed inflation remaining elevated but with some signs of moderation, contributing to market uncertainty about the Fed&#x27;s next move and supporting a balanced view between a rate hold and a 25 bps increase.</p><div class="flex items-center gap-1.5 mt-3"><a href="https://www.regardsofwallstreet.com/news/august-26-2026-hour-by-hour-pce-gdp-nvidia" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" class="flex items-center justify-center rounded-md overflow-hidden bg-white" style="width:28px;height:28px;border:1px solid var(--color-pk-border)" data-state="closed" data-slot="tooltip-trigger"><img src="https://www.google.com/s2/favicons?domain=www.regardsofwallstreet.com&amp;sz=64" alt="Regards of Wallstreet" referrerPolicy="no-referrer" width="18" height="18" loading="lazy" style="object-fit:contain"/></a></div></div></div><div class="flex gap-3 relative !h-0 !overflow-hidden !p-0 !m-0" style="content-visibility:hidden" inert="" aria-hidden="true"><div class="flex flex-col items-center shrink-0"><div class="w-px h-[7px] bg-pk-border"></div><div class="w-3 h-3 rounded-full border-2 border-pk-gray-300 bg-pk-surface shrink-0"></div><div class="w-px flex-1 bg-pk-border"></div></div><div class="flex-1 pb-8"><span class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary">Aug 24 2026</span><p class="text-body-base font-semibold text-pk-content-primary leading-5 mt-1">Federal Reserve maintains rates amid persistent inflation and economic growth</p><p class="flex items-center gap-1 text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary mt-0.5"><span>No change<!-- --> <!-- -->jumps to<!-- --> <!-- -->68<!-- -->%</span><span class="inline-flex items-center gap-0.5 font-semibold text-pk-content-accent-green"><svg width="8" height="8" viewBox="0 0 12 12" fill="none" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><path d="M6.51952 2.5C6.28858 2.1 5.71123 2.1 5.48029 2.5L1.84298 8.8C1.61204 9.2 1.90072 9.7 2.3626 9.7L9.63721 9.7C10.0991 9.7 10.3878 9.2 10.1568 8.8L6.51952 2.5Z" fill="currentColor"></path></svg>5<!-- -->%</span></p><p class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-secondary leading-5 mt-1">On August 24, 2026, the Fed reiterated its stance by keeping rates unchanged at 3.50%-3.75%, citing solid economic activity and elevated inflation partly due to supply shocks. The statement reaffirmed commitment to price stability, with three dissenters favoring a 25 bps hike, sustaining market expectations for a September increase.</p><div class="flex items-center gap-1.5 mt-3"><a href="https://www.ahmedabadmirror.com/us-federal-reserve-holds-int-rates-steady/81918754.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" class="flex items-center justify-center rounded-md overflow-hidden bg-white" style="width:28px;height:28px;border:1px solid var(--color-pk-border)" data-state="closed" data-slot="tooltip-trigger"><img src="https://www.google.com/s2/favicons?domain=www.ahmedabadmirror.com&amp;sz=64" alt="Ahmedabad Mirror" referrerPolicy="no-referrer" width="18" height="18" loading="lazy" style="object-fit:contain"/></a></div></div></div><div class="flex gap-3 relative !h-0 !overflow-hidden !p-0 !m-0" style="content-visibility:hidden" inert="" aria-hidden="true"><div class="flex flex-col items-center shrink-0"><div class="w-px h-[7px] bg-pk-border"></div><div class="w-3 h-3 rounded-full border-2 border-pk-gray-300 bg-pk-surface shrink-0"></div><div class="w-px flex-1 bg-pk-border"></div></div><div class="flex-1 pb-8"><span class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary">Aug 24 2026</span><p class="text-body-base font-semibold text-pk-content-primary leading-5 mt-1">Federal Reserve Holds Interest Rates Steady in August 2026 Despite Inflation and Global Uncertainty</p><p class="flex items-center gap-1 text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary mt-0.5"><span>No change<!-- --> <!-- -->drops to<!-- --> <!-- -->56<!-- -->%</span><span class="inline-flex items-center gap-0.5 font-semibold text-pk-content-accent-red"><svg width="8" height="8" viewBox="0 0 12 12" fill="none" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><path d="M6.51952 9.5C6.28858 9.9 5.71123 9.9 5.48029 9.5L1.84298 3.2C1.61204 2.8 1.90072 2.3 2.3626 2.3L9.63721 2.3C10.0991 2.3 10.3878 2.8 10.1568 3.2L6.51952 9.5Z" fill="currentColor"></path></svg>6<!-- -->%</span></p><p class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-secondary leading-5 mt-1">On August 24, the Fed kept rates unchanged at 3.5%-3.75%, citing solid economic growth amid elevated inflation and geopolitical risks. Three policymakers dissented, favoring a 25 bps hike, underscoring ongoing inflation concerns.</p><div class="flex items-center gap-1.5 mt-3"><a href="https://www.ahmedabadmirror.com/us-federal-reserve-holds-int-rates-steady/81918754.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" class="flex items-center justify-center rounded-md overflow-hidden bg-white" style="width:28px;height:28px;border:1px solid var(--color-pk-border)" data-state="closed" data-slot="tooltip-trigger"><img src="https://www.google.com/s2/favicons?domain=www.ahmedabadmirror.com&amp;sz=64" alt="Ahmedabad Mirror" referrerPolicy="no-referrer" width="18" height="18" loading="lazy" style="object-fit:contain"/></a></div></div></div><div class="flex gap-3 relative !h-0 !overflow-hidden !p-0 !m-0" style="content-visibility:hidden" inert="" aria-hidden="true"><div class="flex flex-col items-center shrink-0"><div class="w-px h-[7px] bg-pk-border"></div><div class="w-3 h-3 rounded-full border-2 border-pk-gray-300 bg-pk-surface shrink-0"></div><div class="w-px flex-1 bg-pk-border"></div></div><div class="flex-1 pb-8"><span class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary">Aug 24 2026</span><p class="text-body-base font-semibold text-pk-content-primary leading-5 mt-1">Federal Reserve holds rates steady amid solid economic growth and persistent inflation</p><p class="flex items-center gap-1 text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary mt-0.5"><span>No change<!-- --> <!-- -->jumps to<!-- --> <!-- -->68<!-- -->%</span><span class="inline-flex items-center gap-0.5 font-semibold text-pk-content-accent-green"><svg width="8" height="8" viewBox="0 0 12 12" fill="none" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><path d="M6.51952 2.5C6.28858 2.1 5.71123 2.1 5.48029 2.5L1.84298 8.8C1.61204 9.2 1.90072 9.7 2.3626 9.7L9.63721 9.7C10.0991 9.7 10.3878 9.2 10.1568 8.8L6.51952 2.5Z" fill="currentColor"></path></svg>5<!-- -->%</span></p><p class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-secondary leading-5 mt-1">On August 24, 2026, the Fed reiterated its commitment to maintaining rates at 3.50%-3.75% due to ongoing inflation pressures and a solid economy, with three dissenters again favoring a hike. This reinforced market expectations for a potential September increase.</p><div class="flex items-center gap-1.5 mt-3"><a href="https://www.ahmedabadmirror.com/us-federal-reserve-holds-int-rates-steady/81918754.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" class="flex items-center justify-center rounded-md overflow-hidden bg-white" style="width:28px;height:28px;border:1px solid var(--color-pk-border)" data-state="closed" data-slot="tooltip-trigger"><img src="https://www.google.com/s2/favicons?domain=www.ahmedabadmirror.com&amp;sz=64" alt="Ahmedabad Mirror" referrerPolicy="no-referrer" width="18" height="18" loading="lazy" style="object-fit:contain"/></a></div></div></div><div class="flex gap-3 relative !h-0 !overflow-hidden !p-0 !m-0" style="content-visibility:hidden" inert="" aria-hidden="true"><div class="flex flex-col items-center shrink-0"><div class="w-px h-[7px] bg-pk-border"></div><div class="w-3 h-3 rounded-full border-2 border-pk-gray-300 bg-pk-surface shrink-0"></div><div class="w-px flex-1 bg-pk-border"></div></div><div class="flex-1 pb-8"><span class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary">Aug 20 2026</span><p class="text-body-base font-semibold text-pk-content-primary leading-5 mt-1">Rising inflation and geopolitical risks keep markets wary of Fed rate cuts</p><p class="flex items-center gap-1 text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary mt-0.5"><span>25 bps increase<!-- --> <!-- -->surges to<!-- --> <!-- -->56<!-- -->%</span><span class="inline-flex items-center gap-0.5 font-semibold text-pk-content-accent-green"><svg width="8" height="8" viewBox="0 0 12 12" fill="none" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><path d="M6.51952 2.5C6.28858 2.1 5.71123 2.1 5.48029 2.5L1.84298 8.8C1.61204 9.2 1.90072 9.7 2.3626 9.7L9.63721 9.7C10.0991 9.7 10.3878 9.2 10.1568 8.8L6.51952 2.5Z" fill="currentColor"></path></svg>20<!-- -->%</span></p><p class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-secondary leading-5 mt-1">In August 2026, ongoing inflation pressures driven by Middle East conflict and elevated energy prices, combined with hawkish Fed signals, led markets to reduce expectations for rate cuts and price in a higher probability of a 25 basis points increase at the September meeting.</p><div class="flex items-center gap-1.5 mt-3"><a href="https://www.idnfinancials.com/news/62523/economists-see-the-fed-holding-rates-until-september-2026" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" class="flex items-center justify-center rounded-md overflow-hidden bg-white" style="width:28px;height:28px;border:1px solid var(--color-pk-border)" data-state="closed" data-slot="tooltip-trigger"><img src="https://www.google.com/s2/favicons?domain=www.idnfinancials.com&amp;sz=64" alt="IDNFinancials" referrerPolicy="no-referrer" width="18" height="18" loading="lazy" style="object-fit:contain"/></a></div></div></div><div class="flex gap-3 relative !h-0 !overflow-hidden !p-0 !m-0" style="content-visibility:hidden" inert="" aria-hidden="true"><div class="flex flex-col items-center shrink-0"><div class="w-px h-[7px] bg-pk-border"></div><div class="w-3 h-3 rounded-full border-2 border-pk-gray-300 bg-pk-surface shrink-0"></div><div class="w-px flex-1 bg-pk-border"></div></div><div class="flex-1 pb-8"><span class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary">Aug 20 2026</span><p class="text-body-base font-semibold text-pk-content-primary leading-5 mt-1">Fed officials signal possible rate hikes if inflation persists</p><p class="flex items-center gap-1 text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary mt-0.5"><span>25 bps increase<!-- --> <!-- -->surges to<!-- --> <!-- -->41<!-- -->%</span><span class="inline-flex items-center gap-0.5 font-semibold text-pk-content-accent-green"><svg width="8" height="8" viewBox="0 0 12 12" fill="none" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><path d="M6.51952 2.5C6.28858 2.1 5.71123 2.1 5.48029 2.5L1.84298 8.8C1.61204 9.2 1.90072 9.7 2.3626 9.7L9.63721 9.7C10.0991 9.7 10.3878 9.2 10.1568 8.8L6.51952 2.5Z" fill="currentColor"></path></svg>16<!-- -->%</span></p><p class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-secondary leading-5 mt-1">Minutes from a recent Fed meeting indicated that many officials thought the central bank might need to raise short-term interest rates if inflation did not subside, reviving expectations of a potential 25 basis points increase. This hawkish tone caused markets to reassess the likelihood of rate hikes in September.</p><div class="flex items-center gap-1.5 mt-3"><a href="https://www.lapost.com/tag/monetary-policy" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" class="flex items-center justify-center rounded-md overflow-hidden bg-white" style="width:28px;height:28px;border:1px solid var(--color-pk-border)" data-state="closed" data-slot="tooltip-trigger"><img src="https://www.google.com/s2/favicons?domain=www.lapost.com&amp;sz=64" alt="LA Post" referrerPolicy="no-referrer" width="18" height="18" loading="lazy" style="object-fit:contain"/></a></div></div></div><div class="flex gap-3 relative !h-0 !overflow-hidden !p-0 !m-0" style="content-visibility:hidden" inert="" aria-hidden="true"><div class="flex flex-col items-center shrink-0"><div class="w-px h-[7px] bg-pk-border"></div><div class="w-3 h-3 rounded-full border-2 border-pk-gray-300 bg-pk-surface shrink-0"></div><div class="w-px flex-1 bg-pk-border"></div></div><div class="flex-1 pb-8"><span class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary">Aug 19 2026</span><p class="text-body-base font-semibold text-pk-content-primary leading-5 mt-1">Release of July FOMC meeting minutes reveals three dissenters favored rate hike</p><p class="flex items-center gap-1 text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary mt-0.5"><span>25 bps increase<!-- --> <!-- -->surges to<!-- --> <!-- -->38<!-- -->%</span><span class="inline-flex items-center gap-0.5 font-semibold text-pk-content-accent-green"><svg width="8" height="8" viewBox="0 0 12 12" fill="none" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><path d="M6.51952 2.5C6.28858 2.1 5.71123 2.1 5.48029 2.5L1.84298 8.8C1.61204 9.2 1.90072 9.7 2.3626 9.7L9.63721 9.7C10.0991 9.7 10.3878 9.2 10.1568 8.8L6.51952 2.5Z" fill="currentColor"></path></svg>22<!-- -->%</span></p><p class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-secondary leading-5 mt-1">The minutes from the July 28-29 FOMC meeting showed a closer split than the statement suggested, with three members voting for an immediate hike and several others favoring a 25 basis points increase. This reinforced market pricing for a September hike.</p><div class="flex items-center gap-1.5 mt-3"><a href="https://www.securities.io/fed-minutes-show-three-dissenters-favored-a-hike-as-markets-priced-september/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" class="flex items-center justify-center rounded-md overflow-hidden bg-white" style="width:28px;height:28px;border:1px solid var(--color-pk-border)" data-state="closed" data-slot="tooltip-trigger"><img src="https://www.google.com/s2/favicons?domain=www.securities.io&amp;sz=64" alt="Securities.io" referrerPolicy="no-referrer" width="18" height="18" loading="lazy" style="object-fit:contain"/></a></div></div></div><div class="flex gap-3 relative !h-0 !overflow-hidden !p-0 !m-0" style="content-visibility:hidden" inert="" aria-hidden="true"><div class="flex flex-col items-center shrink-0"><div class="w-px h-[7px] bg-pk-border"></div><div class="w-3 h-3 rounded-full border-2 border-pk-gray-300 bg-pk-surface shrink-0"></div><div class="w-px flex-1 bg-pk-border"></div></div><div class="flex-1 pb-8"><span class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary">Aug 19 2026</span><p class="text-body-base font-semibold text-pk-content-primary leading-5 mt-1">Release of July FOMC minutes reveals committee split and dissent details</p><p class="flex items-center gap-1 text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary mt-0.5"><span>25 bps increase<!-- --> <!-- -->surges to<!-- --> <!-- -->38<!-- -->%</span><span class="inline-flex items-center gap-0.5 font-semibold text-pk-content-accent-green"><svg width="8" height="8" viewBox="0 0 12 12" fill="none" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><path d="M6.51952 2.5C6.28858 2.1 5.71123 2.1 5.48029 2.5L1.84298 8.8C1.61204 9.2 1.90072 9.7 2.3626 9.7L9.63721 9.7C10.0991 9.7 10.3878 9.2 10.1568 8.8L6.51952 2.5Z" fill="currentColor"></path></svg>22<!-- -->%</span></p><p class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-secondary leading-5 mt-1">The publication of the July FOMC minutes on August 19 provided market participants with detailed insights into the committee&#x27;s divided stance on interest rates, reinforcing expectations for a potential 25 bps hike in September and causing shifts in market pricing.</p><div class="flex items-center gap-1.5 mt-3"><a href="https://www.regardsofwallstreet.com/news/fomc-minutes-august-19-2026-what-time" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" class="flex items-center justify-center rounded-md overflow-hidden bg-white" style="width:28px;height:28px;border:1px solid var(--color-pk-border)" data-state="closed" data-slot="tooltip-trigger"><img src="https://www.google.com/s2/favicons?domain=www.regardsofwallstreet.com&amp;sz=64" alt="Regards of Wallstreet" referrerPolicy="no-referrer" width="18" height="18" loading="lazy" style="object-fit:contain"/></a></div></div></div><div class="flex gap-3 relative !h-0 !overflow-hidden !p-0 !m-0" style="content-visibility:hidden" inert="" aria-hidden="true"><div class="flex flex-col items-center shrink-0"><div class="w-px h-[7px] bg-pk-border"></div><div class="w-3 h-3 rounded-full border-2 border-pk-gray-300 bg-pk-surface shrink-0"></div><div class="w-px flex-1 bg-pk-border"></div></div><div class="flex-1 pb-8"><span class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary">Aug 19 2026</span><p class="text-body-base font-semibold text-pk-content-primary leading-5 mt-1">Fed Minutes Reveal Officials&#x27; Concerns Over Inflation and Potential Rate Hike</p><p class="flex items-center gap-1 text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary mt-0.5"><span>25 bps increase<!-- --> <!-- -->surges to<!-- --> <!-- -->53<!-- -->%</span><span class="inline-flex items-center gap-0.5 font-semibold text-pk-content-accent-green"><svg width="8" height="8" viewBox="0 0 12 12" fill="none" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><path d="M6.51952 2.5C6.28858 2.1 5.71123 2.1 5.48029 2.5L1.84298 8.8C1.61204 9.2 1.90072 9.7 2.3626 9.7L9.63721 9.7C10.0991 9.7 10.3878 9.2 10.1568 8.8L6.51952 2.5Z" fill="currentColor"></path></svg>25<!-- -->%</span></p><p class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-secondary leading-5 mt-1">The minutes from the July FOMC meeting showed that many Fed officials believed further policy tightening would be necessary if inflation did not decline. The committee noted that financial conditions might not be sufficiently restrictive to return inflation to the 2% target, reinforcing expectations for a possible rate hike in September.</p><div class="flex items-center gap-1.5 mt-3"><a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2026/08/19/fed-minutes-july-2026-officials-saw-need-for-rate-hike-if-inflation-doesnt-cool.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" class="flex items-center justify-center rounded-md overflow-hidden bg-white" style="width:28px;height:28px;border:1px solid var(--color-pk-border)" data-state="closed" data-slot="tooltip-trigger"><img src="https://www.google.com/s2/favicons?domain=www.cnbc.com&amp;sz=64" alt="CNBC" referrerPolicy="no-referrer" width="18" height="18" loading="lazy" style="object-fit:contain"/></a></div></div></div><div class="flex gap-3 relative !h-0 !overflow-hidden !p-0 !m-0" style="content-visibility:hidden" inert="" aria-hidden="true"><div class="flex flex-col items-center shrink-0"><div class="w-px h-[7px] bg-pk-border"></div><div class="w-3 h-3 rounded-full border-2 border-pk-gray-300 bg-pk-surface shrink-0"></div><div class="w-px flex-1 bg-pk-border"></div></div><div class="flex-1 pb-8"><span class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary">Aug 19 2026</span><p class="text-body-base font-semibold text-pk-content-primary leading-5 mt-1">FOMC minutes reveal split decision and inflation concerns ahead of September meeting</p><p class="flex items-center gap-1 text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary mt-0.5"><span>25 bps increase<!-- --> <!-- -->jumps to<!-- --> <!-- -->65<!-- -->%</span><span class="inline-flex items-center gap-0.5 font-semibold text-pk-content-accent-green"><svg width="8" height="8" viewBox="0 0 12 12" fill="none" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><path d="M6.51952 2.5C6.28858 2.1 5.71123 2.1 5.48029 2.5L1.84298 8.8C1.61204 9.2 1.90072 9.7 2.3626 9.7L9.63721 9.7C10.0991 9.7 10.3878 9.2 10.1568 8.8L6.51952 2.5Z" fill="currentColor"></path></svg>5<!-- -->%</span></p><p class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-secondary leading-5 mt-1">The minutes from the July FOMC meeting highlighted a split among policymakers, with three voting for a rate hike due to inflation risks. The Committee reaffirmed its commitment to price stability, signaling a likely 25 basis point increase in September.</p><div class="flex items-center gap-1.5 mt-3"><a href="https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomcminutes20260617.htm" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" class="flex items-center justify-center rounded-md overflow-hidden bg-white" style="width:28px;height:28px;border:1px solid var(--color-pk-border)" data-state="closed" data-slot="tooltip-trigger"><img src="https://www.google.com/s2/favicons?domain=www.federalreserve.gov&amp;sz=64" alt="Federal Reserve Board" referrerPolicy="no-referrer" width="18" height="18" loading="lazy" style="object-fit:contain"/></a></div></div></div><div class="flex gap-3 relative !h-0 !overflow-hidden !p-0 !m-0" style="content-visibility:hidden" inert="" aria-hidden="true"><div class="flex flex-col items-center shrink-0"><div class="w-px h-[7px] bg-pk-border"></div><div class="w-3 h-3 rounded-full border-2 border-pk-gray-300 bg-pk-surface shrink-0"></div><div class="w-px flex-1 bg-pk-border"></div></div><div class="flex-1 pb-8"><span class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary">Aug 19 2026</span><p class="text-body-base font-semibold text-pk-content-primary leading-5 mt-1">FOMC minutes reveal hawkish tone, inflation risks remain elevated</p><p class="flex items-center gap-1 text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary mt-0.5"><span>No change<!-- --> <!-- -->jumps to<!-- --> <!-- -->59<!-- -->%</span><span class="inline-flex items-center gap-0.5 font-semibold text-pk-content-accent-green"><svg width="8" height="8" viewBox="0 0 12 12" fill="none" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><path d="M6.51952 2.5C6.28858 2.1 5.71123 2.1 5.48029 2.5L1.84298 8.8C1.61204 9.2 1.90072 9.7 2.3626 9.7L9.63721 9.7C10.0991 9.7 10.3878 9.2 10.1568 8.8L6.51952 2.5Z" fill="currentColor"></path></svg>5<!-- -->%</span></p><p class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-secondary leading-5 mt-1">The release of the August 19 FOMC minutes showed that several participants favored raising rates if inflation did not decline, emphasizing upside risks from supply shocks and geopolitical tensions. This hawkish tone supported market pricing for no change or a 25 bps increase in September, while diminishing expectations for rate cuts.</p><div class="flex items-center gap-1.5 mt-3"><a href="https://www.pnc.com/content/dam/pnc-com/pdf/aboutpnc/EconomicReports/EconomicUpdates/2026/PNC_Economics_Research_FOMC_Minutes_19_August_2026.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" class="flex items-center justify-center rounded-md overflow-hidden bg-white" style="width:28px;height:28px;border:1px solid var(--color-pk-border)" data-state="closed" data-slot="tooltip-trigger"><img src="https://www.google.com/s2/favicons?domain=www.pnc.com&amp;sz=64" alt="PNC Economics Research" referrerPolicy="no-referrer" width="18" height="18" loading="lazy" style="object-fit:contain"/></a><a href="https://www.newsquawk.com/headlines/preview-fomc-minutes-due-wednesday-19th-august-2026-at-1900bst1400edt" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" class="flex items-center justify-center rounded-md overflow-hidden bg-white" style="width:28px;height:28px;border:1px solid var(--color-pk-border)" data-state="closed" data-slot="tooltip-trigger"><img src="https://www.google.com/s2/favicons?domain=www.newsquawk.com&amp;sz=64" alt="Newsquawk" referrerPolicy="no-referrer" width="18" height="18" loading="lazy" style="object-fit:contain"/></a></div></div></div><div class="flex gap-3 relative !h-0 !overflow-hidden !p-0 !m-0" style="content-visibility:hidden" inert="" aria-hidden="true"><div class="flex flex-col items-center shrink-0"><div class="w-px h-[7px] bg-pk-border"></div><div class="w-3 h-3 rounded-full border-2 border-pk-gray-300 bg-pk-surface shrink-0"></div><div class="w-px flex-1 bg-pk-border"></div></div><div class="flex-1 pb-8"><span class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary">Aug 19 2026</span><p class="text-body-base font-semibold text-pk-content-primary leading-5 mt-1">Federal Reserve releases minutes of July 28-29 FOMC meeting</p><p class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-secondary leading-5 mt-1">The minutes from the July FOMC meeting detailed the divided views among policymakers, including the three dissenters favoring a rate hike. The minutes highlighted ongoing inflation concerns and the Fed&#x27;s readiness to adjust policy, reinforcing market expectations for a September increase.</p><div class="flex items-center gap-1.5 mt-3"><a href="https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20260819a.htm" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" class="flex items-center justify-center rounded-md overflow-hidden bg-white" style="width:28px;height:28px;border:1px solid var(--color-pk-border)" data-state="closed" data-slot="tooltip-trigger"><img src="https://www.google.com/s2/favicons?domain=www.federalreserve.gov&amp;sz=64" alt="Federal Reserve Board" referrerPolicy="no-referrer" width="18" height="18" loading="lazy" style="object-fit:contain"/></a></div></div></div><div class="flex gap-3 relative !h-0 !overflow-hidden !p-0 !m-0" style="content-visibility:hidden" inert="" aria-hidden="true"><div class="flex flex-col items-center shrink-0"><div class="w-px h-[7px] bg-pk-border"></div><div class="w-3 h-3 rounded-full border-2 border-pk-gray-300 bg-pk-surface shrink-0"></div><div class="w-px flex-1 bg-pk-border"></div></div><div class="flex-1 pb-8"><span class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary">Aug 15 2026</span><p class="text-body-base font-semibold text-pk-content-primary leading-5 mt-1">JPMorgan Chase warns of economic risks amid calls for Fed rate cuts</p><p class="flex items-center gap-1 text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary mt-0.5"><span>25 bps decrease<!-- --> <!-- -->dips to<!-- --> <!-- -->1<!-- -->%</span><span class="inline-flex items-center gap-0.5 font-semibold text-pk-content-accent-red"><svg width="8" height="8" viewBox="0 0 12 12" fill="none" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><path d="M6.51952 9.5C6.28858 9.9 5.71123 9.9 5.48029 9.5L1.84298 3.2C1.61204 2.8 1.90072 2.3 2.3626 2.3L9.63721 2.3C10.0991 2.3 10.3878 2.8 10.1568 3.2L6.51952 9.5Z" fill="currentColor"></path></svg>3<!-- -->%</span></p><p class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-secondary leading-5 mt-1">JPMorgan Chase released a report highlighting economic vulnerabilities and advocating for a 100 bps rate cut to support employment and stabilize markets. This influenced market sentiment towards potential rate decreases, though the Fed remained cautious.</p><div class="flex items-center gap-1.5 mt-3"><a href="https://latlonginfo.com/en-us/a/fe386cbbbb184569a30a29a5c741392a.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" class="flex items-center justify-center rounded-md overflow-hidden bg-white" style="width:28px;height:28px;border:1px solid var(--color-pk-border)" data-state="closed" data-slot="tooltip-trigger"><img src="https://www.google.com/s2/favicons?domain=latlonginfo.com&amp;sz=64" alt="LatLongInfo" referrerPolicy="no-referrer" width="18" height="18" loading="lazy" style="object-fit:contain"/></a></div></div></div><div class="flex gap-3 relative !h-0 !overflow-hidden !p-0 !m-0" style="content-visibility:hidden" inert="" aria-hidden="true"><div class="flex flex-col items-center shrink-0"><div class="w-px h-[7px] bg-pk-border"></div><div class="w-3 h-3 rounded-full border-2 border-pk-gray-300 bg-pk-surface shrink-0"></div><div class="w-px flex-1 bg-pk-border"></div></div><div class="flex-1 pb-8"><span class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary">Aug 15 2026</span><p class="text-body-base font-semibold text-pk-content-primary leading-5 mt-1">Federal Reserve Maintains Rates Amid Elevated Inflation and Economic Uncertainty</p><p class="flex items-center gap-1 text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary mt-0.5"><span>No change<!-- --> <!-- -->rises to<!-- --> <!-- -->66<!-- -->%</span><span class="inline-flex items-center gap-0.5 font-semibold text-pk-content-accent-green"><svg width="8" height="8" viewBox="0 0 12 12" fill="none" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><path d="M6.51952 2.5C6.28858 2.1 5.71123 2.1 5.48029 2.5L1.84298 8.8C1.61204 9.2 1.90072 9.7 2.3626 9.7L9.63721 9.7C10.0991 9.7 10.3878 9.2 10.1568 8.8L6.51952 2.5Z" fill="currentColor"></path></svg>3<!-- -->%</span></p><p class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-secondary leading-5 mt-1">In mid-August, the Fed reiterated its commitment to maintaining the federal funds rate at 3.50%-3.75%, highlighting ongoing inflationary pressures partly due to supply shocks and geopolitical tensions. The decision supported the view that the Fed would likely raise rates in September if inflation remains elevated.</p><div class="flex items-center gap-1.5 mt-3"><a href="https://www.ahmedabadmirror.com/us-federal-reserve-holds-int-rates-steady/81918754.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" class="flex items-center justify-center rounded-md overflow-hidden bg-white" style="width:28px;height:28px;border:1px solid var(--color-pk-border)" data-state="closed" data-slot="tooltip-trigger"><img src="https://www.google.com/s2/favicons?domain=www.ahmedabadmirror.com&amp;sz=64" alt="Ahmedabad Mirror" referrerPolicy="no-referrer" width="18" height="18" loading="lazy" style="object-fit:contain"/></a></div></div></div><div class="flex gap-3 relative !h-0 !overflow-hidden !p-0 !m-0" style="content-visibility:hidden" inert="" aria-hidden="true"><div class="flex flex-col items-center shrink-0"><div class="w-px h-[7px] bg-pk-border"></div><div class="w-3 h-3 rounded-full border-2 border-pk-gray-300 bg-pk-surface shrink-0"></div><div class="w-px flex-1 bg-pk-border"></div></div><div class="flex-1 pb-8"><span class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary">Aug 15 2026</span><p class="text-body-base font-semibold text-pk-content-primary leading-5 mt-1">Federal Reserve reiterates commitment to price stability, holds rates steady</p><p class="flex items-center gap-1 text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary mt-0.5"><span>No change<!-- --> <!-- -->jumps to<!-- --> <!-- -->75<!-- -->%</span><span class="inline-flex items-center gap-0.5 font-semibold text-pk-content-accent-green"><svg width="8" height="8" viewBox="0 0 12 12" fill="none" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><path d="M6.51952 2.5C6.28858 2.1 5.71123 2.1 5.48029 2.5L1.84298 8.8C1.61204 9.2 1.90072 9.7 2.3626 9.7L9.63721 9.7C10.0991 9.7 10.3878 9.2 10.1568 8.8L6.51952 2.5Z" fill="currentColor"></path></svg>13<!-- -->%</span></p><p class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-secondary leading-5 mt-1">The Fed maintained the federal funds rate at 3.5%-3.75%, citing solid economic growth and persistent inflation above target. The decision was supported by a 9-3 vote, with dissenters favoring a hike. This reaffirmed market expectations for no change in September.</p><div class="flex items-center gap-1.5 mt-3"><a href="https://www.ahmedabadmirror.com/us-federal-reserve-holds-int-rates-steady/81918754.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" class="flex items-center justify-center rounded-md overflow-hidden bg-white" style="width:28px;height:28px;border:1px solid var(--color-pk-border)" data-state="closed" data-slot="tooltip-trigger"><img src="https://www.google.com/s2/favicons?domain=www.ahmedabadmirror.com&amp;sz=64" alt="Ahmedabad Mirror" referrerPolicy="no-referrer" width="18" height="18" loading="lazy" style="object-fit:contain"/></a></div></div></div><div class="flex gap-3 relative !h-0 !overflow-hidden !p-0 !m-0" style="content-visibility:hidden" inert="" aria-hidden="true"><div class="flex flex-col items-center shrink-0"><div class="w-px h-[7px] bg-pk-border"></div><div class="w-3 h-3 rounded-full border-2 border-pk-gray-300 bg-pk-surface shrink-0"></div><div class="w-px flex-1 bg-pk-border"></div></div><div class="flex-1 pb-8"><span class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary">Aug 15 2026</span><p class="text-body-base font-semibold text-pk-content-primary leading-5 mt-1">Federal Reserve holds rates steady amid ongoing inflation and geopolitical risks</p><p class="flex items-center gap-1 text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary mt-0.5"><span>No change<!-- --> <!-- -->jumps to<!-- --> <!-- -->68<!-- -->%</span><span class="inline-flex items-center gap-0.5 font-semibold text-pk-content-accent-green"><svg width="8" height="8" viewBox="0 0 12 12" fill="none" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><path d="M6.51952 2.5C6.28858 2.1 5.71123 2.1 5.48029 2.5L1.84298 8.8C1.61204 9.2 1.90072 9.7 2.3626 9.7L9.63721 9.7C10.0991 9.7 10.3878 9.2 10.1568 8.8L6.51952 2.5Z" fill="currentColor"></path></svg>5<!-- -->%</span></p><p class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-secondary leading-5 mt-1">On August 15, 2026, the Federal Reserve maintained the federal funds rate at 3.50%–3.75%, citing solid economic growth despite elevated inflation and global uncertainties, including the Middle East conflict. The decision was supported by a 9-3 vote, with dissenters favoring a 25 bps hike, reflecting persistent inflation concerns and setting the stage for a possible September rate increase.</p><div class="flex items-center gap-1.5 mt-3"><a href="https://www.ahmedabadmirror.com/us-federal-reserve-holds-int-rates-steady/81918754.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" class="flex items-center justify-center rounded-md overflow-hidden bg-white" style="width:28px;height:28px;border:1px solid var(--color-pk-border)" data-state="closed" data-slot="tooltip-trigger"><img src="https://www.google.com/s2/favicons?domain=www.ahmedabadmirror.com&amp;sz=64" alt="Ahmedabad Mirror" referrerPolicy="no-referrer" width="18" height="18" loading="lazy" style="object-fit:contain"/></a></div></div></div><div class="flex gap-3 relative !h-0 !overflow-hidden !p-0 !m-0" style="content-visibility:hidden" inert="" aria-hidden="true"><div class="flex flex-col items-center shrink-0"><div class="w-px h-[7px] bg-pk-border"></div><div class="w-3 h-3 rounded-full border-2 border-pk-gray-300 bg-pk-surface shrink-0"></div><div class="w-px flex-1 bg-pk-border"></div></div><div class="flex-1 pb-8"><span class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary">Aug 15 2026</span><p class="text-body-base font-semibold text-pk-content-primary leading-5 mt-1">Federal Reserve Holds Interest Rates Steady Amid Inflation and Global Uncertainty</p><p class="flex items-center gap-1 text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary mt-0.5"><span>No change<!-- --> <!-- -->jumps to<!-- --> <!-- -->76<!-- -->%</span><span class="inline-flex items-center gap-0.5 font-semibold text-pk-content-accent-green"><svg width="8" height="8" viewBox="0 0 12 12" fill="none" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><path d="M6.51952 2.5C6.28858 2.1 5.71123 2.1 5.48029 2.5L1.84298 8.8C1.61204 9.2 1.90072 9.7 2.3626 9.7L9.63721 9.7C10.0991 9.7 10.3878 9.2 10.1568 8.8L6.51952 2.5Z" fill="currentColor"></path></svg>13<!-- -->%</span></p><p class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-secondary leading-5 mt-1">On August 12, the Fed maintained the federal funds rate at 3.50%-3.75%, citing solid economic growth despite inflation above target and global uncertainties including the Middle East conflict. This reinforced the market&#x27;s confidence in the no change outcome for September.</p><div class="flex items-center gap-1.5 mt-3"><a href="https://www.ahmedabadmirror.com/us-federal-reserve-holds-int-rates-steady/81918754.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" class="flex items-center justify-center rounded-md overflow-hidden bg-white" style="width:28px;height:28px;border:1px solid var(--color-pk-border)" data-state="closed" data-slot="tooltip-trigger"><img src="https://www.google.com/s2/favicons?domain=www.ahmedabadmirror.com&amp;sz=64" alt="Ahmedabad Mirror" referrerPolicy="no-referrer" width="18" height="18" loading="lazy" style="object-fit:contain"/></a></div></div></div><div class="flex gap-3 relative !h-0 !overflow-hidden !p-0 !m-0" style="content-visibility:hidden" inert="" aria-hidden="true"><div class="flex flex-col items-center shrink-0"><div class="w-px h-[7px] bg-pk-border"></div><div class="w-3 h-3 rounded-full border-2 border-pk-gray-300 bg-pk-surface shrink-0"></div><div class="w-px flex-1 bg-pk-border"></div></div><div class="flex-1 pb-8"><span class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary">Aug 15 2026</span><p class="text-body-base font-semibold text-pk-content-primary leading-5 mt-1">Federal Reserve maintains steady rates amid solid economic growth and inflation concerns</p><p class="flex items-center gap-1 text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary mt-0.5"><span>No change<!-- --> <!-- -->dips to<!-- --> <!-- -->72<!-- -->%</span><span class="inline-flex items-center gap-0.5 font-semibold text-pk-content-accent-red"><svg width="8" height="8" viewBox="0 0 12 12" fill="none" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><path d="M6.51952 9.5C6.28858 9.9 5.71123 9.9 5.48029 9.5L1.84298 3.2C1.61204 2.8 1.90072 2.3 2.3626 2.3L9.63721 2.3C10.0991 2.3 10.3878 2.8 10.1568 3.2L6.51952 9.5Z" fill="currentColor"></path></svg>3<!-- -->%</span></p><p class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-secondary leading-5 mt-1">On August 15, the Fed reiterated its commitment to price stability while maintaining the federal funds rate at 3.50%-3.75%. The economy was described as expanding at a solid pace despite elevated inflation driven by supply shocks, particularly energy prices. The Fed&#x27;s stance supported market expectations of no change in the near term but left open the possibility of a September hike.</p><div class="flex items-center gap-1.5 mt-3"><a href="https://www.ahmedabadmirror.com/us-federal-reserve-holds-int-rates-steady/81918754.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" class="flex items-center justify-center rounded-md overflow-hidden bg-white" style="width:28px;height:28px;border:1px solid var(--color-pk-border)" data-state="closed" data-slot="tooltip-trigger"><img src="https://www.google.com/s2/favicons?domain=www.ahmedabadmirror.com&amp;sz=64" alt="Ahmedabad Mirror" referrerPolicy="no-referrer" width="18" height="18" loading="lazy" style="object-fit:contain"/></a></div></div></div><div class="flex gap-3 relative !h-0 !overflow-hidden !p-0 !m-0" style="content-visibility:hidden" inert="" aria-hidden="true"><div class="flex flex-col items-center shrink-0"><div class="w-px h-[7px] bg-pk-border"></div><div class="w-3 h-3 rounded-full border-2 border-pk-gray-300 bg-pk-surface shrink-0"></div><div class="w-px flex-1 bg-pk-border"></div></div><div class="flex-1 pb-8"><span class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary">Aug 14 2026</span><p class="text-body-base font-semibold text-pk-content-primary leading-5 mt-1">July CPI inflation data confirms persistent inflation at 3.4%, sustaining hike expectations</p><p class="flex items-center gap-1 text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary mt-0.5"><span>25 bps increase<!-- --> <!-- -->rises to<!-- --> <!-- -->49<!-- -->%</span><span class="inline-flex items-center gap-0.5 font-semibold text-pk-content-accent-green"><svg width="8" height="8" viewBox="0 0 12 12" fill="none" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><path d="M6.51952 2.5C6.28858 2.1 5.71123 2.1 5.48029 2.5L1.84298 8.8C1.61204 9.2 1.90072 9.7 2.3626 9.7L9.63721 9.7C10.0991 9.7 10.3878 9.2 10.1568 8.8L6.51952 2.5Z" fill="currentColor"></path></svg>4<!-- -->%</span></p><p class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-secondary leading-5 mt-1">The July Consumer Price Index (CPI) data released in mid-August showed inflation steady at 3.4%, above the Fed&#x27;s 2% target. This persistent inflation supported market expectations for a possible rate hike at the September meeting.</p><div class="flex items-center gap-1.5 mt-3"><a href="https://www.regardsofwallstreet.com/news/july-cpi-3-4-percent-what-it-means-for-markets" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" class="flex items-center justify-center rounded-md overflow-hidden bg-white" style="width:28px;height:28px;border:1px solid var(--color-pk-border)" data-state="closed" data-slot="tooltip-trigger"><img src="https://www.google.com/s2/favicons?domain=www.regardsofwallstreet.com&amp;sz=64" alt="Regards of Wallstreet" referrerPolicy="no-referrer" width="18" height="18" loading="lazy" style="object-fit:contain"/></a></div></div></div><div class="flex gap-3 relative !h-0 !overflow-hidden !p-0 !m-0" style="content-visibility:hidden" inert="" aria-hidden="true"><div class="flex flex-col items-center shrink-0"><div class="w-px h-[7px] bg-pk-border"></div><div class="w-3 h-3 rounded-full border-2 border-pk-gray-300 bg-pk-surface shrink-0"></div><div class="w-px flex-1 bg-pk-border"></div></div><div class="flex-1 pb-8"><span class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary">Aug 12 2026</span><p class="text-body-base font-semibold text-pk-content-primary leading-5 mt-1">July CPI data shows easing inflation, supporting Fed&#x27;s hold on rates</p><p class="flex items-center gap-1 text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary mt-0.5"><span>No change<!-- --> <!-- -->jumps to<!-- --> <!-- -->54<!-- -->%</span><span class="inline-flex items-center gap-0.5 font-semibold text-pk-content-accent-green"><svg width="8" height="8" viewBox="0 0 12 12" fill="none" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><path d="M6.51952 2.5C6.28858 2.1 5.71123 2.1 5.48029 2.5L1.84298 8.8C1.61204 9.2 1.90072 9.7 2.3626 9.7L9.63721 9.7C10.0991 9.7 10.3878 9.2 10.1568 8.8L6.51952 2.5Z" fill="currentColor"></path></svg>13<!-- -->%</span></p><p class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-secondary leading-5 mt-1">The July Consumer Price Index release indicated a cooling in both headline and core inflation, reducing immediate pressure on the Federal Reserve to raise rates. This data reinforced market expectations for the Fed to maintain the current rate range in September, contributing to the rise in the &#x27;No change&#x27; price and decline in rate cut probabilities.</p><div class="flex items-center gap-1.5 mt-3"><a href="https://www.archynetys.com/topic/monetary-policy" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" class="flex items-center justify-center rounded-md overflow-hidden bg-white" style="width:28px;height:28px;border:1px solid var(--color-pk-border)" data-state="closed" data-slot="tooltip-trigger"><img src="https://www.google.com/s2/favicons?domain=www.archynetys.com&amp;sz=64" alt="Archynetys" referrerPolicy="no-referrer" width="18" height="18" loading="lazy" style="object-fit:contain"/></a></div></div></div><div class="flex gap-3 relative !h-0 !overflow-hidden !p-0 !m-0" style="content-visibility:hidden" inert="" aria-hidden="true"><div class="flex flex-col items-center shrink-0"><div class="w-px h-[7px] bg-pk-border"></div><div class="w-3 h-3 rounded-full border-2 border-pk-gray-300 bg-pk-surface shrink-0"></div><div class="w-px flex-1 bg-pk-border"></div></div><div class="flex-1 pb-8"><span class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary">Aug 12 2026</span><p class="text-body-base font-semibold text-pk-content-primary leading-5 mt-1">Federal Reserve Officials Signal Possible Further Rate Hikes Amid Persistent Inflation</p><p class="flex items-center gap-1 text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary mt-0.5"><span>25 bps increase<!-- --> <!-- -->surges to<!-- --> <!-- -->52<!-- -->%</span><span class="inline-flex items-center gap-0.5 font-semibold text-pk-content-accent-green"><svg width="8" height="8" viewBox="0 0 12 12" fill="none" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><path d="M6.51952 2.5C6.28858 2.1 5.71123 2.1 5.48029 2.5L1.84298 8.8C1.61204 9.2 1.90072 9.7 2.3626 9.7L9.63721 9.7C10.0991 9.7 10.3878 9.2 10.1568 8.8L6.51952 2.5Z" fill="currentColor"></path></svg>15<!-- -->%</span></p><p class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-secondary leading-5 mt-1">In mid-August 2026, Federal Reserve officials expressed concerns about inflation remaining above target and indicated that further rate increases could be necessary. This hawkish tone caused a reassessment in markets, boosting the probability of a 25 bps increase and reducing expectations for no change or rate cuts.</p><div class="flex items-center gap-1.5 mt-3"><a href="https://www.ecmarkets.com/insights/fed-holds-rates-hawkish-hike-expectations/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" class="flex items-center justify-center rounded-md overflow-hidden bg-white" style="width:28px;height:28px;border:1px solid var(--color-pk-border)" data-state="closed" data-slot="tooltip-trigger"><img src="https://www.google.com/s2/favicons?domain=www.ecmarkets.com&amp;sz=64" alt="ECMarkets" referrerPolicy="no-referrer" width="18" height="18" loading="lazy" style="object-fit:contain"/></a></div></div></div><div class="flex gap-3 relative !h-0 !overflow-hidden !p-0 !m-0" style="content-visibility:hidden" inert="" aria-hidden="true"><div class="flex flex-col items-center shrink-0"><div class="w-px h-[7px] bg-pk-border"></div><div class="w-3 h-3 rounded-full border-2 border-pk-gray-300 bg-pk-surface shrink-0"></div><div class="w-px flex-1 bg-pk-border"></div></div><div class="flex-1 pb-8"><span class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary">Aug 12 2026</span><p class="text-body-base font-semibold text-pk-content-primary leading-5 mt-1">July CPI inflation report shows easing but inflation remains above target</p><p class="flex items-center gap-1 text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary mt-0.5"><span>25 bps increase<!-- --> <!-- -->surges to<!-- --> <!-- -->48<!-- -->%</span><span class="inline-flex items-center gap-0.5 font-semibold text-pk-content-accent-green"><svg width="8" height="8" viewBox="0 0 12 12" fill="none" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><path d="M6.51952 2.5C6.28858 2.1 5.71123 2.1 5.48029 2.5L1.84298 8.8C1.61204 9.2 1.90072 9.7 2.3626 9.7L9.63721 9.7C10.0991 9.7 10.3878 9.2 10.1568 8.8L6.51952 2.5Z" fill="currentColor"></path></svg>15<!-- -->%</span></p><p class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-secondary leading-5 mt-1">The August 12 release of the July CPI inflation report indicated some easing in consumer price inflation, but core inflation remained elevated. This mixed inflation data contributed to market expectations that the Fed would likely raise rates by 25 bps in September to continue combating inflationary pressures.</p><div class="flex items-center gap-1.5 mt-3"><a href="https://www.gomarkets.com/en/articles/us-market-drivers-august-2026" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" class="flex items-center justify-center rounded-md overflow-hidden bg-white" style="width:28px;height:28px;border:1px solid var(--color-pk-border)" data-state="closed" data-slot="tooltip-trigger"><img src="https://www.google.com/s2/favicons?domain=www.gomarkets.com&amp;sz=64" alt="GO Markets" referrerPolicy="no-referrer" width="18" height="18" loading="lazy" style="object-fit:contain"/></a></div></div></div><div class="flex gap-3 relative !h-0 !overflow-hidden !p-0 !m-0" style="content-visibility:hidden" inert="" aria-hidden="true"><div class="flex flex-col items-center shrink-0"><div class="w-px h-[7px] bg-pk-border"></div><div class="w-3 h-3 rounded-full border-2 border-pk-gray-300 bg-pk-surface shrink-0"></div><div class="w-px flex-1 bg-pk-border"></div></div><div class="flex-1 pb-8"><span class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary">Aug 12 2026</span><p class="text-body-base font-semibold text-pk-content-primary leading-5 mt-1">US Consumer Price Index Shows Persistent Inflation Above Target</p><p class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-secondary leading-5 mt-1">The release of the US CPI data on August 12 showed inflation remaining elevated, reinforcing concerns about the Fed&#x27;s inflation target and supporting expectations for a possible rate increase in September. This data likely influenced market pricing toward the &#x27;No change&#x27; and &#x27;25 bps increase&#x27; outcomes.</p><div class="flex items-center gap-1.5 mt-3"><a href="https://therighttrader.com/dividend-stocks" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" class="flex items-center justify-center rounded-md overflow-hidden bg-white" style="width:28px;height:28px;border:1px solid var(--color-pk-border)" data-state="closed" data-slot="tooltip-trigger"><img src="https://www.google.com/s2/favicons?domain=therighttrader.com&amp;sz=64" alt="The Right Trader" referrerPolicy="no-referrer" width="18" height="18" loading="lazy" style="object-fit:contain"/></a></div></div></div><div class="flex gap-3 relative !h-0 !overflow-hidden !p-0 !m-0" style="content-visibility:hidden" inert="" aria-hidden="true"><div class="flex flex-col items-center shrink-0"><div class="w-px h-[7px] bg-pk-border"></div><div class="w-3 h-3 rounded-full border-2 border-pk-gray-300 bg-pk-surface shrink-0"></div><div class="w-px flex-1 bg-pk-border"></div></div><div class="flex-1 pb-8"><span class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary">Aug 12 2026</span><p class="text-body-base font-semibold text-pk-content-primary leading-5 mt-1">July Consumer Price Index shows modest inflation rise, easing pressure on Fed</p><p class="flex items-center gap-1 text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary mt-0.5"><span>No change<!-- --> <!-- -->jumps to<!-- --> <!-- -->62<!-- -->%</span><span class="inline-flex items-center gap-0.5 font-semibold text-pk-content-accent-green"><svg width="8" height="8" viewBox="0 0 12 12" fill="none" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><path d="M6.51952 2.5C6.28858 2.1 5.71123 2.1 5.48029 2.5L1.84298 8.8C1.61204 9.2 1.90072 9.7 2.3626 9.7L9.63721 9.7C10.0991 9.7 10.3878 9.2 10.1568 8.8L6.51952 2.5Z" fill="currentColor"></path></svg>6<!-- -->%</span></p><p class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-secondary leading-5 mt-1">The July CPI rose 0.1% monthly with an annual rate of 3.4%, slightly easing inflation pressures but still above the Fed&#x27;s 2% target. This modest increase suggested the Fed might hold rates steady in September, reinforcing the market&#x27;s &#x27;No change&#x27; pricing.</p><div class="flex items-center gap-1.5 mt-3"><a href="https://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2026/aug/12/consumer-prices-rose-modestly-july-easing-pressure-federal-reserve/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" class="flex items-center justify-center rounded-md overflow-hidden bg-white" style="width:28px;height:28px;border:1px solid var(--color-pk-border)" data-state="closed" data-slot="tooltip-trigger"><img src="https://www.google.com/s2/favicons?domain=www.washingtontimes.com&amp;sz=64" alt="The Washington Times" referrerPolicy="no-referrer" width="18" height="18" loading="lazy" style="object-fit:contain"/></a></div></div></div><div class="flex gap-3 relative !h-0 !overflow-hidden !p-0 !m-0" style="content-visibility:hidden" inert="" aria-hidden="true"><div class="flex flex-col items-center shrink-0"><div class="w-px h-[7px] bg-pk-border"></div><div class="w-3 h-3 rounded-full border-2 border-pk-gray-300 bg-pk-surface shrink-0"></div><div class="w-px flex-1 bg-pk-border"></div></div><div class="flex-1 pb-8"><span class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary">Aug 12 2026</span><p class="text-body-base font-semibold text-pk-content-primary leading-5 mt-1">July CPI inflation report shows headline inflation at 3.4%, easing slightly</p><p class="flex items-center gap-1 text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary mt-0.5"><span>No change<!-- --> <!-- -->surges to<!-- --> <!-- -->75<!-- -->%</span><span class="inline-flex items-center gap-0.5 font-semibold text-pk-content-accent-green"><svg width="8" height="8" viewBox="0 0 12 12" fill="none" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><path d="M6.51952 2.5C6.28858 2.1 5.71123 2.1 5.48029 2.5L1.84298 8.8C1.61204 9.2 1.90072 9.7 2.3626 9.7L9.63721 9.7C10.0991 9.7 10.3878 9.2 10.1568 8.8L6.51952 2.5Z" fill="currentColor"></path></svg>16<!-- -->%</span></p><p class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-secondary leading-5 mt-1">The August 12 release of July CPI data showed headline inflation at 3.4% year-over-year, still above the Fed&#x27;s 2% target but indicating a slight easing. This report added complexity to the Fed&#x27;s decision-making, balancing persistent inflation against signs of moderation.</p><div class="flex items-center gap-1.5 mt-3"><a href="https://www.nytimes.com/live/2026/08/12/business/inflation-cpi-report" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" class="flex items-center justify-center rounded-md overflow-hidden bg-white" style="width:28px;height:28px;border:1px solid var(--color-pk-border)" data-state="closed" data-slot="tooltip-trigger"><img src="https://www.google.com/s2/favicons?domain=www.nytimes.com&amp;sz=64" alt="The New York Times" referrerPolicy="no-referrer" width="18" height="18" loading="lazy" style="object-fit:contain"/></a></div></div></div><div class="flex gap-3 relative !h-0 !overflow-hidden !p-0 !m-0" style="content-visibility:hidden" inert="" aria-hidden="true"><div class="flex flex-col items-center shrink-0"><div class="w-px h-[7px] bg-pk-border"></div><div class="w-3 h-3 rounded-full border-2 border-pk-gray-300 bg-pk-surface shrink-0"></div><div class="w-px flex-1 bg-pk-border"></div></div><div class="flex-1 pb-8"><span class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary">Aug 12 2026</span><p class="text-body-base font-semibold text-pk-content-primary leading-5 mt-1">July CPI inflation report indicates easing price pressures but inflation remains above target</p><p class="flex items-center gap-1 text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary mt-0.5"><span>25 bps increase<!-- --> <!-- -->dips to<!-- --> <!-- -->32<!-- -->%</span><span class="inline-flex items-center gap-0.5 font-semibold text-pk-content-accent-red"><svg width="8" height="8" viewBox="0 0 12 12" fill="none" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><path d="M6.51952 9.5C6.28858 9.9 5.71123 9.9 5.48029 9.5L1.84298 3.2C1.61204 2.8 1.90072 2.3 2.3626 2.3L9.63721 2.3C10.0991 2.3 10.3878 2.8 10.1568 3.2L6.51952 9.5Z" fill="currentColor"></path></svg>1<!-- -->%</span></p><p class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-secondary leading-5 mt-1">The July CPI report showed a slight decline in inflation rates, suggesting some easing of price pressures. However, inflation remained above the Fed&#x27;s 2% target, sustaining expectations for a rate hike at the September meeting to maintain price stability.</p><div class="flex items-center gap-1.5 mt-3"><a href="https://gomarkets.com/en-au/articles/us-market-drivers-august-2026" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" class="flex items-center justify-center rounded-md overflow-hidden bg-white" style="width:28px;height:28px;border:1px solid var(--color-pk-border)" data-state="closed" data-slot="tooltip-trigger"><img src="https://www.google.com/s2/favicons?domain=gomarkets.com&amp;sz=64" alt="GO Markets" referrerPolicy="no-referrer" width="18" height="18" loading="lazy" style="object-fit:contain"/></a></div></div></div><div class="flex gap-3 relative !h-0 !overflow-hidden !p-0 !m-0" style="content-visibility:hidden" inert="" aria-hidden="true"><div class="flex flex-col items-center shrink-0"><div class="w-px h-[7px] bg-pk-border"></div><div class="w-3 h-3 rounded-full border-2 border-pk-gray-300 bg-pk-surface shrink-0"></div><div class="w-px flex-1 bg-pk-border"></div></div><div class="flex-1 pb-8"><span class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary">Aug 12 2026</span><p class="text-body-base font-semibold text-pk-content-primary leading-5 mt-1">July CPI report shows inflation easing to 3.4%</p><p class="flex items-center gap-1 text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary mt-0.5"><span>No change<!-- --> <!-- -->jumps to<!-- --> <!-- -->69<!-- -->%</span><span class="inline-flex items-center gap-0.5 font-semibold text-pk-content-accent-green"><svg width="8" height="8" viewBox="0 0 12 12" fill="none" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><path d="M6.51952 2.5C6.28858 2.1 5.71123 2.1 5.48029 2.5L1.84298 8.8C1.61204 9.2 1.90072 9.7 2.3626 9.7L9.63721 9.7C10.0991 9.7 10.3878 9.2 10.1568 8.8L6.51952 2.5Z" fill="currentColor"></path></svg>10<!-- -->%</span></p><p class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-secondary leading-5 mt-1">The July 2026 Consumer Price Index report indicated a slight easing of inflation to 3.4% year-over-year, down from 3.5% in June. This moderation, alongside a softening labor market, created a complex policy environment for the Fed ahead of the September meeting, supporting market expectations of no rate change.</p><div class="flex items-center gap-1.5 mt-3"><a href="https://www.nytimes.com/live/2026/08/12/business/inflation-cpi-report" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" class="flex items-center justify-center rounded-md overflow-hidden bg-white" style="width:28px;height:28px;border:1px solid var(--color-pk-border)" data-state="closed" data-slot="tooltip-trigger"><img src="https://www.google.com/s2/favicons?domain=www.nytimes.com&amp;sz=64" alt="The New York Times" referrerPolicy="no-referrer" width="18" height="18" loading="lazy" style="object-fit:contain"/></a></div></div></div><div class="flex gap-3 relative !h-0 !overflow-hidden !p-0 !m-0" style="content-visibility:hidden" inert="" aria-hidden="true"><div class="flex flex-col items-center shrink-0"><div class="w-px h-[7px] bg-pk-border"></div><div class="w-3 h-3 rounded-full border-2 border-pk-gray-300 bg-pk-surface shrink-0"></div><div class="w-px flex-1 bg-pk-border"></div></div><div class="flex-1 pb-8"><span class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary">Aug 11 2026</span><p class="text-body-base font-semibold text-pk-content-primary leading-5 mt-1">Reserve Bank of Australia holds rates steady at 4.35% amid global uncertainty</p><p class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-secondary leading-5 mt-1">The RBA&#x27;s decision to maintain its cash rate at 4.35% on August 11 reflected a global environment of cautious monetary policy, which influenced market sentiment and reduced expectations for aggressive Fed rate hikes in September. This contributed to the stabilization of the &#x27;No change&#x27; outcome in the Fed market.</p><div class="flex items-center gap-1.5 mt-3"><a href="https://www.financecalendar.com/event/rba-rate-decision-august-2026/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" class="flex items-center justify-center rounded-md overflow-hidden bg-white" style="width:28px;height:28px;border:1px solid var(--color-pk-border)" data-state="closed" data-slot="tooltip-trigger"><img src="https://www.google.com/s2/favicons?domain=www.financecalendar.com&amp;sz=64" alt="Finance Calendar" referrerPolicy="no-referrer" width="18" height="18" loading="lazy" style="object-fit:contain"/></a></div></div></div><div class="flex gap-3 relative !h-0 !overflow-hidden !p-0 !m-0" style="content-visibility:hidden" inert="" aria-hidden="true"><div class="flex flex-col items-center shrink-0"><div class="w-px h-[7px] bg-pk-border"></div><div class="w-3 h-3 rounded-full border-2 border-pk-gray-300 bg-pk-surface shrink-0"></div><div class="w-px flex-1 bg-pk-border"></div></div><div class="flex-1 pb-8"><span class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary">Aug 11 2026</span><p class="text-body-base font-semibold text-pk-content-primary leading-5 mt-1">Rising US mortgage rates and job losses signal economic strain ahead of September Fed meeting</p><p class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-secondary leading-5 mt-1">Reports in August highlighted 23,000 jobs lost in July and a 30-year fixed mortgage rate averaging 6.69%, indicating economic strain. These developments increased market speculation about a potential Fed rate hike in September to address inflation and economic risks.</p><div class="flex items-center gap-1.5 mt-3"><a href="https://www.live-feeds.com/feed/the-federal-reserve-faces-a-critical-decision-on-interest-rates" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" class="flex items-center justify-center rounded-md overflow-hidden bg-white" style="width:28px;height:28px;border:1px solid var(--color-pk-border)" data-state="closed" data-slot="tooltip-trigger"><img src="https://www.google.com/s2/favicons?domain=www.live-feeds.com&amp;sz=64" alt="Live Feeds" referrerPolicy="no-referrer" width="18" height="18" loading="lazy" style="object-fit:contain"/></a></div></div></div><div class="flex gap-3 relative !h-0 !overflow-hidden !p-0 !m-0" style="content-visibility:hidden" inert="" aria-hidden="true"><div class="flex flex-col items-center shrink-0"><div class="w-px h-[7px] bg-pk-border"></div><div class="w-3 h-3 rounded-full border-2 border-pk-gray-300 bg-pk-surface shrink-0"></div><div class="w-px flex-1 bg-pk-border"></div></div><div class="flex-1 pb-8"><span class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary">Aug 10 2026</span><p class="text-body-base font-semibold text-pk-content-primary leading-5 mt-1">Market Expectations Shift Toward 25 Basis Point Rate Increase Ahead of September Meeting</p><p class="flex items-center gap-1 text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary mt-0.5"><span>25 bps increase<!-- --> <!-- -->surges to<!-- --> <!-- -->42<!-- -->%</span><span class="inline-flex items-center gap-0.5 font-semibold text-pk-content-accent-green"><svg width="8" height="8" viewBox="0 0 12 12" fill="none" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><path d="M6.51952 2.5C6.28858 2.1 5.71123 2.1 5.48029 2.5L1.84298 8.8C1.61204 9.2 1.90072 9.7 2.3626 9.7L9.63721 9.7C10.0991 9.7 10.3878 9.2 10.1568 8.8L6.51952 2.5Z" fill="currentColor"></path></svg>18<!-- -->%</span></p><p class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-secondary leading-5 mt-1">In early August, market sentiment shifted with increasing expectations for a 25 basis point rate hike at the upcoming September FOMC meeting, driven by persistent inflation and hawkish Fed communications. This was reflected in rising market prices for the 25 bps increase outcome and declining probabilities for no change.</p><div class="flex items-center gap-1.5 mt-3"><a href="https://www.ishares.com/us/insights/portfolio-insights/fed-outlook-rates-kevin-warsh-fixed-income-2026" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" class="flex items-center justify-center rounded-md overflow-hidden bg-white" style="width:28px;height:28px;border:1px solid var(--color-pk-border)" data-state="closed" data-slot="tooltip-trigger"><img src="https://www.google.com/s2/favicons?domain=www.ishares.com&amp;sz=64" alt="iShares" referrerPolicy="no-referrer" width="18" height="18" loading="lazy" style="object-fit:contain"/></a></div></div></div><div class="flex gap-3 relative !h-0 !overflow-hidden !p-0 !m-0" style="content-visibility:hidden" inert="" aria-hidden="true"><div class="flex flex-col items-center shrink-0"><div class="w-px h-[7px] bg-pk-border"></div><div class="w-3 h-3 rounded-full border-2 border-pk-gray-300 bg-pk-surface shrink-0"></div><div class="w-px flex-1 bg-pk-border"></div></div><div class="flex-1 pb-8"><span class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary">Aug 10 2026</span><p class="text-body-base font-semibold text-pk-content-primary leading-5 mt-1">Political pressure mounts as President Trump calls for aggressive Fed rate cuts</p><p class="flex items-center gap-1 text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary mt-0.5"><span>No change<!-- --> <!-- -->jumps to<!-- --> <!-- -->67<!-- -->%</span><span class="inline-flex items-center gap-0.5 font-semibold text-pk-content-accent-green"><svg width="8" height="8" viewBox="0 0 12 12" fill="none" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><path d="M6.51952 2.5C6.28858 2.1 5.71123 2.1 5.48029 2.5L1.84298 8.8C1.61204 9.2 1.90072 9.7 2.3626 9.7L9.63721 9.7C10.0991 9.7 10.3878 9.2 10.1568 8.8L6.51952 2.5Z" fill="currentColor"></path></svg>11<!-- -->%</span></p><p class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-secondary leading-5 mt-1">President Trump publicly pressured the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates further, but Fed Chair Jerome Powell emphasized the Fed&#x27;s independence and commitment to data-driven policy, which supported market confidence in no change for the September meeting.</p><div class="flex items-center gap-1.5 mt-3"><a href="https://www.aljazeera.com/economy/2026/1/28/us-federal-reserve-holds-interest-rates-steady-despite-political-pressure" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" class="flex items-center justify-center rounded-md overflow-hidden bg-white" style="width:28px;height:28px;border:1px solid var(--color-pk-border)" data-state="closed" data-slot="tooltip-trigger"><img src="https://www.google.com/s2/favicons?domain=www.aljazeera.com&amp;sz=64" alt="Al Jazeera" referrerPolicy="no-referrer" width="18" height="18" loading="lazy" style="object-fit:contain"/></a></div></div></div><div class="flex gap-3 relative !h-0 !overflow-hidden !p-0 !m-0" style="content-visibility:hidden" inert="" aria-hidden="true"><div class="flex flex-col items-center shrink-0"><div class="w-px h-[7px] bg-pk-border"></div><div class="w-3 h-3 rounded-full border-2 border-pk-gray-300 bg-pk-surface shrink-0"></div><div class="w-px flex-1 bg-pk-border"></div></div><div class="flex-1 pb-8"><span class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary">Aug 10 2026</span><p class="text-body-base font-semibold text-pk-content-primary leading-5 mt-1">Federal Reserve interest rate remains at 3.50%-3.75% as markets await September decision</p><p class="flex items-center gap-1 text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary mt-0.5"><span>25 bps increase<!-- --> <!-- -->jumps to<!-- --> <!-- -->44<!-- -->%</span><span class="inline-flex items-center gap-0.5 font-semibold text-pk-content-accent-green"><svg width="8" height="8" viewBox="0 0 12 12" fill="none" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><path d="M6.51952 2.5C6.28858 2.1 5.71123 2.1 5.48029 2.5L1.84298 8.8C1.61204 9.2 1.90072 9.7 2.3626 9.7L9.63721 9.7C10.0991 9.7 10.3878 9.2 10.1568 8.8L6.51952 2.5Z" fill="currentColor"></path></svg>5<!-- -->%</span></p><p class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-secondary leading-5 mt-1">As of early August, the Federal Reserve maintained the federal funds rate at 3.50%-3.75%, with markets pricing in a significant probability of a 25 basis point hike at the upcoming September meeting. Inflation concerns and geopolitical risks continued to influence expectations for monetary policy tightening.</p><div class="flex items-center gap-1.5 mt-3"><a href="https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h15/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" class="flex items-center justify-center rounded-md overflow-hidden bg-white" style="width:28px;height:28px;border:1px solid var(--color-pk-border)" data-state="closed" data-slot="tooltip-trigger"><img src="https://www.google.com/s2/favicons?domain=www.federalreserve.gov&amp;sz=64" alt="federalreserve.gov" referrerPolicy="no-referrer" width="18" height="18" loading="lazy" style="object-fit:contain"/></a></div></div></div><div class="flex gap-3 relative !h-0 !overflow-hidden !p-0 !m-0" style="content-visibility:hidden" inert="" aria-hidden="true"><div class="flex flex-col items-center shrink-0"><div class="w-px h-[7px] bg-pk-border"></div><div class="w-3 h-3 rounded-full border-2 border-pk-gray-300 bg-pk-surface shrink-0"></div><div class="w-px flex-1 bg-pk-border"></div></div><div class="flex-1 pb-8"><span class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary">Aug 10 2026</span><p class="text-body-base font-semibold text-pk-content-primary leading-5 mt-1">Rising Inflation and Geopolitical Tensions Fuel Expectations of September Rate Hike</p><p class="flex items-center gap-1 text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary mt-0.5"><span>25 bps increase<!-- --> <!-- -->drops to<!-- --> <!-- -->31<!-- -->%</span><span class="inline-flex items-center gap-0.5 font-semibold text-pk-content-accent-red"><svg width="8" height="8" viewBox="0 0 12 12" fill="none" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><path d="M6.51952 9.5C6.28858 9.9 5.71123 9.9 5.48029 9.5L1.84298 3.2C1.61204 2.8 1.90072 2.3 2.3626 2.3L9.63721 2.3C10.0991 2.3 10.3878 2.8 10.1568 3.2L6.51952 9.5Z" fill="currentColor"></path></svg>8<!-- -->%</span></p><p class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-secondary leading-5 mt-1">In early August, persistent inflation above the Fed&#x27;s 2% target and renewed geopolitical tensions, especially the U.S.-Iran conflict affecting energy prices, led investors to price in a 67% probability of a 25 basis points rate increase at the September FOMC meeting. The Fed&#x27;s hawkish signals and economic data supported this shift in market sentiment.</p><div class="flex items-center gap-1.5 mt-3"><a href="https://quorumpw.com/insights/august-2026-market-update/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" class="flex items-center justify-center rounded-md overflow-hidden bg-white" style="width:28px;height:28px;border:1px solid var(--color-pk-border)" data-state="closed" data-slot="tooltip-trigger"><img src="https://www.google.com/s2/favicons?domain=quorumpw.com&amp;sz=64" alt="Quorum Private Wealth" referrerPolicy="no-referrer" width="18" height="18" loading="lazy" style="object-fit:contain"/></a></div></div></div><div class="flex gap-3 relative !h-0 !overflow-hidden !p-0 !m-0" style="content-visibility:hidden" inert="" aria-hidden="true"><div class="flex flex-col items-center shrink-0"><div class="w-px h-[7px] bg-pk-border"></div><div class="w-3 h-3 rounded-full border-2 border-pk-gray-300 bg-pk-surface shrink-0"></div><div class="w-px flex-1 bg-pk-border"></div></div><div class="flex-1 pb-8"><span class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary">Aug 7 2026</span><p class="text-body-base font-semibold text-pk-content-primary leading-5 mt-1">July employment report shows labor market weakening, adding uncertainty to Fed rate path</p><p class="flex items-center gap-1 text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary mt-0.5"><span>25 bps increase<!-- --> <!-- -->drops to<!-- --> <!-- -->49<!-- -->%</span><span class="inline-flex items-center gap-0.5 font-semibold text-pk-content-accent-red"><svg width="8" height="8" viewBox="0 0 12 12" fill="none" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><path d="M6.51952 9.5C6.28858 9.9 5.71123 9.9 5.48029 9.5L1.84298 3.2C1.61204 2.8 1.90072 2.3 2.3626 2.3L9.63721 2.3C10.0991 2.3 10.3878 2.8 10.1568 3.2L6.51952 9.5Z" fill="currentColor"></path></svg>11<!-- -->%</span></p><p class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-secondary leading-5 mt-1">The July jobs report revealed a decline in nonfarm payrolls and a slight drop in unemployment, reinforcing a cooling labor market. This mixed signal contributed to market volatility and tempered expectations for aggressive Fed hikes, though a 25 bps increase remained favored.</p><div class="flex items-center gap-1.5 mt-3"><a href="https://gomarkets.com/en-au/articles/us-market-drivers-august-2026" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" class="flex items-center justify-center rounded-md overflow-hidden bg-white" style="width:28px;height:28px;border:1px solid var(--color-pk-border)" data-state="closed" data-slot="tooltip-trigger"><img src="https://www.google.com/s2/favicons?domain=gomarkets.com&amp;sz=64" alt="GO Markets" referrerPolicy="no-referrer" width="18" height="18" loading="lazy" style="object-fit:contain"/></a></div></div></div><div class="flex gap-3 relative !h-0 !overflow-hidden !p-0 !m-0" style="content-visibility:hidden" inert="" aria-hidden="true"><div class="flex flex-col items-center shrink-0"><div class="w-px h-[7px] bg-pk-border"></div><div class="w-3 h-3 rounded-full border-2 border-pk-gray-300 bg-pk-surface shrink-0"></div><div class="w-px flex-1 bg-pk-border"></div></div><div class="flex-1 pb-8"><span class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary">Aug 7 2026</span><p class="text-body-base font-semibold text-pk-content-primary leading-5 mt-1">July jobs report shows 23,000 job losses, raising recession concerns</p><p class="flex items-center gap-1 text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary mt-0.5"><span>No change<!-- --> <!-- -->surges to<!-- --> <!-- -->54<!-- -->%</span><span class="inline-flex items-center gap-0.5 font-semibold text-pk-content-accent-green"><svg width="8" height="8" viewBox="0 0 12 12" fill="none" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><path d="M6.51952 2.5C6.28858 2.1 5.71123 2.1 5.48029 2.5L1.84298 8.8C1.61204 9.2 1.90072 9.7 2.3626 9.7L9.63721 9.7C10.0991 9.7 10.3878 9.2 10.1568 8.8L6.51952 2.5Z" fill="currentColor"></path></svg>15<!-- -->%</span></p><p class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-secondary leading-5 mt-1">The July employment report revealed a loss of 23,000 jobs and downward revisions to prior months, signaling labor market weakening. This mixed signal complicated the Fed&#x27;s outlook, tempering expectations for aggressive rate hikes and supporting some market optimism for no change.</p><div class="flex items-center gap-1.5 mt-3"><a href="https://trerc.tamu.edu/reports/texas-economic-outlook-august-2026/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" class="flex items-center justify-center rounded-md overflow-hidden bg-white" style="width:28px;height:28px;border:1px solid var(--color-pk-border)" data-state="closed" data-slot="tooltip-trigger"><img src="https://www.google.com/s2/favicons?domain=trerc.tamu.edu&amp;sz=64" alt="trerc.tamu.edu" referrerPolicy="no-referrer" width="18" height="18" loading="lazy" style="object-fit:contain"/></a></div></div></div><div class="flex gap-3 relative !h-0 !overflow-hidden !p-0 !m-0" style="content-visibility:hidden" inert="" aria-hidden="true"><div class="flex flex-col items-center shrink-0"><div class="w-px h-[7px] bg-pk-border"></div><div class="w-3 h-3 rounded-full border-2 border-pk-gray-300 bg-pk-surface shrink-0"></div><div class="w-px flex-1 bg-pk-border"></div></div><div class="flex-1 pb-8"><span class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary">Aug 7 2026</span><p class="text-body-base font-semibold text-pk-content-primary leading-5 mt-1">July jobs report shows labor market weakening, shifting Fed expectations</p><p class="flex items-center gap-1 text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary mt-0.5"><span>25 bps increase<!-- --> <!-- -->jumps to<!-- --> <!-- -->40<!-- -->%</span><span class="inline-flex items-center gap-0.5 font-semibold text-pk-content-accent-green"><svg width="8" height="8" viewBox="0 0 12 12" fill="none" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><path d="M6.51952 2.5C6.28858 2.1 5.71123 2.1 5.48029 2.5L1.84298 8.8C1.61204 9.2 1.90072 9.7 2.3626 9.7L9.63721 9.7C10.0991 9.7 10.3878 9.2 10.1568 8.8L6.51952 2.5Z" fill="currentColor"></path></svg>9<!-- -->%</span></p><p class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-secondary leading-5 mt-1">The July jobs report released on August 7 showed a decline of 23,000 nonfarm payrolls and a slight drop in the unemployment rate to 4.1%, reinforcing signs of a cooling labor market. This data contributed to market reassessment of the Fed&#x27;s likely September decision, increasing expectations for a possible rate hold or modest hike.</p><div class="flex items-center gap-1.5 mt-3"><a href="https://primerates.com/primerate/fed-meeting-schedule/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" class="flex items-center justify-center rounded-md overflow-hidden bg-white" style="width:28px;height:28px;border:1px solid var(--color-pk-border)" data-state="closed" data-slot="tooltip-trigger"><img src="https://www.google.com/s2/favicons?domain=primerates.com&amp;sz=64" alt="PrimeRates" referrerPolicy="no-referrer" width="18" height="18" loading="lazy" style="object-fit:contain"/></a></div></div></div><div class="flex gap-3 relative !h-0 !overflow-hidden !p-0 !m-0" style="content-visibility:hidden" inert="" aria-hidden="true"><div class="flex flex-col items-center shrink-0"><div class="w-px h-[7px] bg-pk-border"></div><div class="w-3 h-3 rounded-full border-2 border-pk-gray-300 bg-pk-surface shrink-0"></div><div class="w-px flex-1 bg-pk-border"></div></div><div class="flex-1 pb-8"><span class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary">Aug 7 2026</span><p class="text-body-base font-semibold text-pk-content-primary leading-5 mt-1">Rising inflation and geopolitical tensions sustain rate hike expectations</p><p class="flex items-center gap-1 text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary mt-0.5"><span>25 bps increase<!-- --> <!-- -->drops to<!-- --> <!-- -->28<!-- -->%</span><span class="inline-flex items-center gap-0.5 font-semibold text-pk-content-accent-red"><svg width="8" height="8" viewBox="0 0 12 12" fill="none" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><path d="M6.51952 9.5C6.28858 9.9 5.71123 9.9 5.48029 9.5L1.84298 3.2C1.61204 2.8 1.90072 2.3 2.3626 2.3L9.63721 2.3C10.0991 2.3 10.3878 2.8 10.1568 3.2L6.51952 9.5Z" fill="currentColor"></path></svg>9<!-- -->%</span></p><p class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-secondary leading-5 mt-1">In early August 2026, ongoing inflation pressures driven by elevated energy prices and geopolitical uncertainty, including the Middle East conflict, maintained market expectations for a potential 25 bps rate increase in September. This contributed to fluctuations in the probabilities for &#x27;No change&#x27; and &#x27;25 bps increase&#x27; outcomes.</p><div class="flex items-center gap-1.5 mt-3"><a href="https://www.thetechedvocate.org/unveiling-the-dire-reality-why-your-wallet-faces-a-double-whammy-in-august-2026/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" class="flex items-center justify-center rounded-md overflow-hidden bg-white" style="width:28px;height:28px;border:1px solid var(--color-pk-border)" data-state="closed" data-slot="tooltip-trigger"><img src="https://www.google.com/s2/favicons?domain=www.thetechedvocate.org&amp;sz=64" alt="The Techedvocate" referrerPolicy="no-referrer" width="18" height="18" loading="lazy" style="object-fit:contain"/></a></div></div></div><div class="flex gap-3 relative !h-0 !overflow-hidden !p-0 !m-0" style="content-visibility:hidden" inert="" aria-hidden="true"><div class="flex flex-col items-center shrink-0"><div class="w-px h-[7px] bg-pk-border"></div><div class="w-3 h-3 rounded-full border-2 border-pk-gray-300 bg-pk-surface shrink-0"></div><div class="w-px flex-1 bg-pk-border"></div></div><div class="flex-1 pb-8"><span class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary">Aug 7 2026</span><p class="text-body-base font-semibold text-pk-content-primary leading-5 mt-1">US economy shows signs of strain amid rising borrowing costs and job losses</p><p class="flex items-center gap-1 text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary mt-0.5"><span>25 bps increase<!-- --> <!-- -->plunges to<!-- --> <!-- -->28<!-- -->%</span><span class="inline-flex items-center gap-0.5 font-semibold text-pk-content-accent-red"><svg width="8" height="8" viewBox="0 0 12 12" fill="none" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><path d="M6.51952 9.5C6.28858 9.9 5.71123 9.9 5.48029 9.5L1.84298 3.2C1.61204 2.8 1.90072 2.3 2.3626 2.3L9.63721 2.3C10.0991 2.3 10.3878 2.8 10.1568 3.2L6.51952 9.5Z" fill="currentColor"></path></svg>16<!-- -->%</span></p><p class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-secondary leading-5 mt-1">In early August, reports indicated the US economy was facing challenges with 23,000 jobs lost in July and rising mortgage rates averaging 6.69%. These developments increased market speculation about a potential Federal Reserve rate hike in September, contributing to shifts in market expectations and currency valuations.</p><div class="flex items-center gap-1.5 mt-3"><a href="https://www.live-feeds.com/feed/the-federal-reserve-faces-a-critical-decision-on-interest-rates" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" class="flex items-center justify-center rounded-md overflow-hidden bg-white" style="width:28px;height:28px;border:1px solid var(--color-pk-border)" data-state="closed" data-slot="tooltip-trigger"><img src="https://www.google.com/s2/favicons?domain=www.live-feeds.com&amp;sz=64" alt="Live Feeds" referrerPolicy="no-referrer" width="18" height="18" loading="lazy" style="object-fit:contain"/></a></div></div></div><div class="flex gap-3 relative !h-0 !overflow-hidden !p-0 !m-0" style="content-visibility:hidden" inert="" aria-hidden="true"><div class="flex flex-col items-center shrink-0"><div class="w-px h-[7px] bg-pk-border"></div><div class="w-3 h-3 rounded-full border-2 border-pk-gray-300 bg-pk-surface shrink-0"></div><div class="w-px flex-1 bg-pk-border"></div></div><div class="flex-1 pb-8"><span class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary">Aug 7 2026</span><p class="text-body-base font-semibold text-pk-content-primary leading-5 mt-1">July jobs data shows softer hiring, inflation forecast remains elevated</p><p class="flex items-center gap-1 text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary mt-0.5"><span>No change<!-- --> <!-- -->jumps to<!-- --> <!-- -->49<!-- -->%</span><span class="inline-flex items-center gap-0.5 font-semibold text-pk-content-accent-green"><svg width="8" height="8" viewBox="0 0 12 12" fill="none" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><path d="M6.51952 2.5C6.28858 2.1 5.71123 2.1 5.48029 2.5L1.84298 8.8C1.61204 9.2 1.90072 9.7 2.3626 9.7L9.63721 9.7C10.0991 9.7 10.3878 9.2 10.1568 8.8L6.51952 2.5Z" fill="currentColor"></path></svg>9<!-- -->%</span></p><p class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-secondary leading-5 mt-1">The July 2026 Nonfarm Payrolls report revealed weaker-than-expected job growth, with new jobs below consensus forecasts. The Federal Reserve&#x27;s August inflation forecast projected persistent PCE inflation at 3.6%, signaling ongoing inflation risks. These data points contributed to market caution and supported expectations of a Fed pause in September.</p><div class="flex items-center gap-1.5 mt-3"><a href="https://www.interactivecrypto.com/july-jobs-data-and-fed-inflation-forecast-push-markets-toward-higher-rates-aug-2026" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" class="flex items-center justify-center rounded-md overflow-hidden bg-white" style="width:28px;height:28px;border:1px solid var(--color-pk-border)" data-state="closed" data-slot="tooltip-trigger"><img src="https://www.google.com/s2/favicons?domain=www.interactivecrypto.com&amp;sz=64" alt="Interactive Crypto" referrerPolicy="no-referrer" width="18" height="18" loading="lazy" style="object-fit:contain"/></a></div></div></div><div class="flex gap-3 relative !h-0 !overflow-hidden !p-0 !m-0" style="content-visibility:hidden" inert="" aria-hidden="true"><div class="flex flex-col items-center shrink-0"><div class="w-px h-[7px] bg-pk-border"></div><div class="w-3 h-3 rounded-full border-2 border-pk-gray-300 bg-pk-surface shrink-0"></div><div class="w-px flex-1 bg-pk-border"></div></div><div class="flex-1 pb-8"><span class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary">Aug 7 2026</span><p class="text-body-base font-semibold text-pk-content-primary leading-5 mt-1">July jobs report shows labor market weakening with 23,000 jobs lost</p><p class="flex items-center gap-1 text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary mt-0.5"><span>No change<!-- --> <!-- -->rises to<!-- --> <!-- -->56<!-- -->%</span><span class="inline-flex items-center gap-0.5 font-semibold text-pk-content-accent-green"><svg width="8" height="8" viewBox="0 0 12 12" fill="none" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><path d="M6.51952 2.5C6.28858 2.1 5.71123 2.1 5.48029 2.5L1.84298 8.8C1.61204 9.2 1.90072 9.7 2.3626 9.7L9.63721 9.7C10.0991 9.7 10.3878 9.2 10.1568 8.8L6.51952 2.5Z" fill="currentColor"></path></svg>4<!-- -->%</span></p><p class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-secondary leading-5 mt-1">The July employment data revealed a loss of 23,000 jobs, signaling economic strain and influencing market expectations toward a more cautious Fed stance. This data supported the &#x27;No change&#x27; outcome as the Fed weighed inflation risks against labor market weakness.</p><div class="flex items-center gap-1.5 mt-3"><a href="https://www.live-feeds.com/feed/the-federal-reserve-faces-a-critical-decision-on-interest-rates" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" class="flex items-center justify-center rounded-md overflow-hidden bg-white" style="width:28px;height:28px;border:1px solid var(--color-pk-border)" data-state="closed" data-slot="tooltip-trigger"><img src="https://www.google.com/s2/favicons?domain=www.live-feeds.com&amp;sz=64" alt="live-feeds.com" referrerPolicy="no-referrer" width="18" height="18" loading="lazy" style="object-fit:contain"/></a></div></div></div><div class="flex gap-3 relative !h-0 !overflow-hidden !p-0 !m-0" style="content-visibility:hidden" inert="" aria-hidden="true"><div class="flex flex-col items-center shrink-0"><div class="w-px h-[7px] bg-pk-border"></div><div class="w-3 h-3 rounded-full border-2 border-pk-gray-300 bg-pk-surface shrink-0"></div><div class="w-px flex-1 bg-pk-border"></div></div><div class="flex-1 pb-8"><span class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary">Aug 7 2026</span><p class="text-body-base font-semibold text-pk-content-primary leading-5 mt-1">July jobs report shows weakening labor market, influencing Fed expectations</p><p class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-secondary leading-5 mt-1">The July jobs report revealed a decline in nonfarm payrolls and a slight drop in unemployment, reinforcing signs of a cooling labor market and affecting market views on the Fed&#x27;s potential September decision.</p><div class="flex items-center gap-1.5 mt-3"><a href="https://primerates.com/primerate/fed-meeting-schedule/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" class="flex items-center justify-center rounded-md overflow-hidden bg-white" style="width:28px;height:28px;border:1px solid var(--color-pk-border)" data-state="closed" data-slot="tooltip-trigger"><img src="https://www.google.com/s2/favicons?domain=primerates.com&amp;sz=64" alt="PrimeRates" referrerPolicy="no-referrer" width="18" height="18" loading="lazy" style="object-fit:contain"/></a></div></div></div><div class="flex gap-3 relative !h-0 !overflow-hidden !p-0 !m-0" style="content-visibility:hidden" inert="" aria-hidden="true"><div class="flex flex-col items-center shrink-0"><div class="w-px h-[7px] bg-pk-border"></div><div class="w-3 h-3 rounded-full border-2 border-pk-gray-300 bg-pk-surface shrink-0"></div><div class="w-px flex-1 bg-pk-border"></div></div><div class="flex-1 pb-8"><span class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary">Aug 7 2026</span><p class="text-body-base font-semibold text-pk-content-primary leading-5 mt-1">US Economy Shows Strain with Job Losses and Rising Borrowing Costs Ahead of September Fed Vote</p><p class="flex items-center gap-1 text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary mt-0.5"><span>25 bps increase<!-- --> <!-- -->jumps to<!-- --> <!-- -->35<!-- -->%</span><span class="inline-flex items-center gap-0.5 font-semibold text-pk-content-accent-green"><svg width="8" height="8" viewBox="0 0 12 12" fill="none" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><path d="M6.51952 2.5C6.28858 2.1 5.71123 2.1 5.48029 2.5L1.84298 8.8C1.61204 9.2 1.90072 9.7 2.3626 9.7L9.63721 9.7C10.0991 9.7 10.3878 9.2 10.1568 8.8L6.51952 2.5Z" fill="currentColor"></path></svg>7<!-- -->%</span></p><p class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-secondary leading-5 mt-1">Reports of 23,000 jobs lost in July and rising mortgage rates heightened market uncertainty ahead of the September FOMC meeting, briefly increasing expectations for a 25 bps rate hike, reflected in a temporary price rise for that outcome.</p><div class="flex items-center gap-1.5 mt-3"><a href="https://www.live-feeds.com/feed/the-federal-reserve-faces-a-critical-decision-on-interest-rates" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" class="flex items-center justify-center rounded-md overflow-hidden bg-white" style="width:28px;height:28px;border:1px solid var(--color-pk-border)" data-state="closed" data-slot="tooltip-trigger"><img src="https://www.google.com/s2/favicons?domain=www.live-feeds.com&amp;sz=64" alt="Live Feeds" referrerPolicy="no-referrer" width="18" height="18" loading="lazy" style="object-fit:contain"/></a></div></div></div><div class="flex gap-3 relative !h-0 !overflow-hidden !p-0 !m-0" style="content-visibility:hidden" inert="" aria-hidden="true"><div class="flex flex-col items-center shrink-0"><div class="w-px h-[7px] bg-pk-border"></div><div class="w-3 h-3 rounded-full border-2 border-pk-gray-300 bg-pk-surface shrink-0"></div><div class="w-px flex-1 bg-pk-border"></div></div><div class="flex-1 pb-8"><span class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary">Aug 7 2026</span><p class="text-body-base font-semibold text-pk-content-primary leading-5 mt-1">US Federal Reserve reaffirms hold on rates amid Middle East conflict and inflation concerns</p><p class="flex items-center gap-1 text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary mt-0.5"><span>No change<!-- --> <!-- -->jumps to<!-- --> <!-- -->71<!-- -->%</span><span class="inline-flex items-center gap-0.5 font-semibold text-pk-content-accent-green"><svg width="8" height="8" viewBox="0 0 12 12" fill="none" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><path d="M6.51952 2.5C6.28858 2.1 5.71123 2.1 5.48029 2.5L1.84298 8.8C1.61204 9.2 1.90072 9.7 2.3626 9.7L9.63721 9.7C10.0991 9.7 10.3878 9.2 10.1568 8.8L6.51952 2.5Z" fill="currentColor"></path></svg>8<!-- -->%</span></p><p class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-secondary leading-5 mt-1">In early August, the Federal Reserve reiterated its stance to keep rates steady due to ongoing elevated inflation driven by supply shocks, including energy prices linked to the Middle East conflict. The Fed emphasized its commitment to price stability while acknowledging solid economic growth and labor market conditions.</p><div class="flex items-center gap-1.5 mt-3"><a href="https://www.foxbusiness.com/economy/federal-reserve-interest-rate-decision-july-29-2026" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" class="flex items-center justify-center rounded-md overflow-hidden bg-white" style="width:28px;height:28px;border:1px solid var(--color-pk-border)" data-state="closed" data-slot="tooltip-trigger"><img src="https://www.google.com/s2/favicons?domain=www.foxbusiness.com&amp;sz=64" alt="Fox Business" referrerPolicy="no-referrer" width="18" height="18" loading="lazy" style="object-fit:contain"/></a><a href="https://www.ahmedabadmirror.com/us-federal-reserve-holds-int-rates-steady/81918754.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" class="flex items-center justify-center rounded-md overflow-hidden bg-white" style="width:28px;height:28px;border:1px solid var(--color-pk-border)" data-state="closed" data-slot="tooltip-trigger"><img src="https://www.google.com/s2/favicons?domain=www.ahmedabadmirror.com&amp;sz=64" alt="Ahmedabad Mirror" referrerPolicy="no-referrer" width="18" height="18" loading="lazy" style="object-fit:contain"/></a></div></div></div><div class="flex gap-3 relative !h-0 !overflow-hidden !p-0 !m-0" style="content-visibility:hidden" inert="" aria-hidden="true"><div class="flex flex-col items-center shrink-0"><div class="w-px h-[7px] bg-pk-border"></div><div class="w-3 h-3 rounded-full border-2 border-pk-gray-300 bg-pk-surface shrink-0"></div><div class="w-px flex-1 bg-pk-border"></div></div><div class="flex-1 pb-8"><span class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary">Aug 6 2026</span><p class="text-body-base font-semibold text-pk-content-primary leading-5 mt-1">US Economy Shows Signs of Strain Amid Rising Borrowing Costs and Job Losses</p><p class="flex items-center gap-1 text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary mt-0.5"><span>25 bps increase<!-- --> <!-- -->plunges to<!-- --> <!-- -->25<!-- -->%</span><span class="inline-flex items-center gap-0.5 font-semibold text-pk-content-accent-red"><svg width="8" height="8" viewBox="0 0 12 12" fill="none" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><path d="M6.51952 9.5C6.28858 9.9 5.71123 9.9 5.48029 9.5L1.84298 3.2C1.61204 2.8 1.90072 2.3 2.3626 2.3L9.63721 2.3C10.0991 2.3 10.3878 2.8 10.1568 3.2L6.51952 9.5Z" fill="currentColor"></path></svg>20<!-- -->%</span></p><p class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-secondary leading-5 mt-1">In early August, reports indicated 23,000 jobs lost in July and rising mortgage rates near 6.69%, highlighting economic strain. These developments increased market anticipation of a Fed rate hike in September to combat inflation and stabilize the economy.</p><div class="flex items-center gap-1.5 mt-3"><a href="https://www.thetechedvocate.org/unveiling-the-dire-reality-why-your-wallet-faces-a-double-whammy-in-august-2026/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" class="flex items-center justify-center rounded-md overflow-hidden bg-white" style="width:28px;height:28px;border:1px solid var(--color-pk-border)" data-state="closed" data-slot="tooltip-trigger"><img src="https://www.google.com/s2/favicons?domain=www.thetechedvocate.org&amp;sz=64" alt="The Techedvocate" referrerPolicy="no-referrer" width="18" height="18" loading="lazy" style="object-fit:contain"/></a></div></div></div><div class="flex gap-3 relative !h-0 !overflow-hidden !p-0 !m-0" style="content-visibility:hidden" inert="" aria-hidden="true"><div class="flex flex-col items-center shrink-0"><div class="w-px h-[7px] bg-pk-border"></div><div class="w-3 h-3 rounded-full border-2 border-pk-gray-300 bg-pk-surface shrink-0"></div><div class="w-px flex-1 bg-pk-border"></div></div><div class="flex-1 pb-8"><span class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary">Aug 6 2026</span><p class="text-body-base font-semibold text-pk-content-primary leading-5 mt-1">Federal Reserve reiterates commitment to price stability amid elevated inflation and global uncertainty</p><p class="flex items-center gap-1 text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary mt-0.5"><span>No change<!-- --> <!-- -->jumps to<!-- --> <!-- -->71<!-- -->%</span><span class="inline-flex items-center gap-0.5 font-semibold text-pk-content-accent-green"><svg width="8" height="8" viewBox="0 0 12 12" fill="none" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><path d="M6.51952 2.5C6.28858 2.1 5.71123 2.1 5.48029 2.5L1.84298 8.8C1.61204 9.2 1.90072 9.7 2.3626 9.7L9.63721 9.7C10.0991 9.7 10.3878 9.2 10.1568 8.8L6.51952 2.5Z" fill="currentColor"></path></svg>8<!-- -->%</span></p><p class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-secondary leading-5 mt-1">On August 6, the Fed reaffirmed its stance to maintain rates steady at 3.50%-3.75% citing solid economic growth despite inflationary pressures from energy prices and geopolitical risks, supporting market expectations of no immediate change but potential hikes later in the year.</p><div class="flex items-center gap-1.5 mt-3"><a href="https://www.ahmedabadmirror.com/us-federal-reserve-holds-int-rates-steady/81918754.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" class="flex items-center justify-center rounded-md overflow-hidden bg-white" style="width:28px;height:28px;border:1px solid var(--color-pk-border)" data-state="closed" data-slot="tooltip-trigger"><img src="https://www.google.com/s2/favicons?domain=www.ahmedabadmirror.com&amp;sz=64" alt="Ahmedabad Mirror" referrerPolicy="no-referrer" width="18" height="18" loading="lazy" style="object-fit:contain"/></a></div></div></div><div class="flex gap-3 relative !h-0 !overflow-hidden !p-0 !m-0" style="content-visibility:hidden" inert="" aria-hidden="true"><div class="flex flex-col items-center shrink-0"><div class="w-px h-[7px] bg-pk-border"></div><div class="w-3 h-3 rounded-full border-2 border-pk-gray-300 bg-pk-surface shrink-0"></div><div class="w-px flex-1 bg-pk-border"></div></div><div class="flex-1 pb-8"><span class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary">Aug 6 2026</span><p class="text-body-base font-semibold text-pk-content-primary leading-5 mt-1">US mortgage rates rise to 6.69% amid economic strain and inflation concerns</p><p class="flex items-center gap-1 text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary mt-0.5"><span>25 bps increase<!-- --> <!-- -->rises to<!-- --> <!-- -->31<!-- -->%</span><span class="inline-flex items-center gap-0.5 font-semibold text-pk-content-accent-green"><svg width="8" height="8" viewBox="0 0 12 12" fill="none" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><path d="M6.51952 2.5C6.28858 2.1 5.71123 2.1 5.48029 2.5L1.84298 8.8C1.61204 9.2 1.90072 9.7 2.3626 9.7L9.63721 9.7C10.0991 9.7 10.3878 9.2 10.1568 8.8L6.51952 2.5Z" fill="currentColor"></path></svg>1<!-- -->%</span></p><p class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-secondary leading-5 mt-1">Mortgage rates climbed to 6.69% as of early August 2026, reflecting ongoing inflationary pressures and economic strain including job losses. This environment contributed to market expectations of a Fed rate hike in September to combat inflation.</p><div class="flex items-center gap-1.5 mt-3"><a href="https://www.thetechedvocate.org/unveiling-the-dire-reality-why-your-wallet-faces-a-double-whammy-in-august-2026/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" class="flex items-center justify-center rounded-md overflow-hidden bg-white" style="width:28px;height:28px;border:1px solid var(--color-pk-border)" data-state="closed" data-slot="tooltip-trigger"><img src="https://www.google.com/s2/favicons?domain=www.thetechedvocate.org&amp;sz=64" alt="The Techedvocate" referrerPolicy="no-referrer" width="18" height="18" loading="lazy" style="object-fit:contain"/></a></div></div></div><div class="flex gap-3 relative !h-0 !overflow-hidden !p-0 !m-0" style="content-visibility:hidden" inert="" aria-hidden="true"><div class="flex flex-col items-center shrink-0"><div class="w-px h-[7px] bg-pk-border"></div><div class="w-3 h-3 rounded-full border-2 border-pk-gray-300 bg-pk-surface shrink-0"></div><div class="w-px flex-1 bg-pk-border"></div></div><div class="flex-1 pb-8"><span class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary">Aug 6 2026</span><p class="text-body-base font-semibold text-pk-content-primary leading-5 mt-1">Federal Reserve Maintains Interest Rates Amid Elevated Inflation and Economic Growth</p><p class="flex items-center gap-1 text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary mt-0.5"><span>No change<!-- --> <!-- -->surges to<!-- --> <!-- -->56<!-- -->%</span><span class="inline-flex items-center gap-0.5 font-semibold text-pk-content-accent-green"><svg width="8" height="8" viewBox="0 0 12 12" fill="none" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><path d="M6.51952 2.5C6.28858 2.1 5.71123 2.1 5.48029 2.5L1.84298 8.8C1.61204 9.2 1.90072 9.7 2.3626 9.7L9.63721 9.7C10.0991 9.7 10.3878 9.2 10.1568 8.8L6.51952 2.5Z" fill="currentColor"></path></svg>17<!-- -->%</span></p><p class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-secondary leading-5 mt-1">The Fed kept the benchmark interest rate unchanged at 3.50%-3.75% in early August, citing solid economic growth despite global uncertainty and persistent inflationary pressures, partly due to the Middle East conflict. The decision was supported by a 9-3 vote, with dissenters favoring a rate hike due to inflation concerns.</p><div class="flex items-center gap-1.5 mt-3"><a href="https://www.ahmedabadmirror.com/us-federal-reserve-holds-int-rates-steady/81918754.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" class="flex items-center justify-center rounded-md overflow-hidden bg-white" style="width:28px;height:28px;border:1px solid var(--color-pk-border)" data-state="closed" data-slot="tooltip-trigger"><img src="https://www.google.com/s2/favicons?domain=www.ahmedabadmirror.com&amp;sz=64" alt="Ahmedabad Mirror" referrerPolicy="no-referrer" width="18" height="18" loading="lazy" style="object-fit:contain"/></a></div></div></div><div class="flex gap-3 relative !h-0 !overflow-hidden !p-0 !m-0" style="content-visibility:hidden" inert="" aria-hidden="true"><div class="flex flex-col items-center shrink-0"><div class="w-px h-[7px] bg-pk-border"></div><div class="w-3 h-3 rounded-full border-2 border-pk-gray-300 bg-pk-surface shrink-0"></div><div class="w-px flex-1 bg-pk-border"></div></div><div class="flex-1 pb-8"><span class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary">Aug 6 2026</span><p class="text-body-base font-semibold text-pk-content-primary leading-5 mt-1">Rising Inflation and Geopolitical Risks Keep Fed Rate Hike Expectations High Ahead of September</p><p class="flex items-center gap-1 text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary mt-0.5"><span>25 bps increase<!-- --> <!-- -->surges to<!-- --> <!-- -->53<!-- -->%</span><span class="inline-flex items-center gap-0.5 font-semibold text-pk-content-accent-green"><svg width="8" height="8" viewBox="0 0 12 12" fill="none" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><path d="M6.51952 2.5C6.28858 2.1 5.71123 2.1 5.48029 2.5L1.84298 8.8C1.61204 9.2 1.90072 9.7 2.3626 9.7L9.63721 9.7C10.0991 9.7 10.3878 9.2 10.1568 8.8L6.51952 2.5Z" fill="currentColor"></path></svg>25<!-- -->%</span></p><p class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-secondary leading-5 mt-1">In August 2026, despite no FOMC meeting, ongoing inflation concerns driven by elevated energy prices and geopolitical tensions, particularly the Middle East conflict, maintained market anticipation of a rate hike at the September meeting. Economic data releases and Fed communications during this period reinforced expectations for tightening monetary policy.</p><div class="flex items-center gap-1.5 mt-3"><a href="https://www.reuters.com/business/fed-officials-mull-raising-rates-curb-growing-inflation-risk-2026-05-29/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" class="flex items-center justify-center rounded-md overflow-hidden bg-white" style="width:28px;height:28px;border:1px solid var(--color-pk-border)" data-state="closed" data-slot="tooltip-trigger"><img src="https://www.google.com/s2/favicons?domain=www.reuters.com&amp;sz=64" alt="Reuters" referrerPolicy="no-referrer" width="18" height="18" loading="lazy" style="object-fit:contain"/></a><a href="https://emergencyfundcalculator.com/fed-interest-rate-decision-august-2026/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" class="flex items-center justify-center rounded-md overflow-hidden bg-white" style="width:28px;height:28px;border:1px solid var(--color-pk-border)" data-state="closed" data-slot="tooltip-trigger"><img src="https://www.google.com/s2/favicons?domain=emergencyfundcalculator.com&amp;sz=64" alt="Emergency Fund Calculator" referrerPolicy="no-referrer" width="18" height="18" loading="lazy" style="object-fit:contain"/></a></div></div></div><div class="flex gap-3 relative !h-0 !overflow-hidden !p-0 !m-0" style="content-visibility:hidden" inert="" aria-hidden="true"><div class="flex flex-col items-center shrink-0"><div class="w-px h-[7px] bg-pk-border"></div><div class="w-3 h-3 rounded-full border-2 border-pk-gray-300 bg-pk-surface shrink-0"></div><div class="w-px flex-1 bg-pk-border"></div></div><div class="flex-1 pb-8"><span class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary">Aug 6 2026</span><p class="text-body-base font-semibold text-pk-content-primary leading-5 mt-1">US economy shows resilience with steady job gains amid inflation concerns</p><p class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-secondary leading-5 mt-1">On August 6, 2026, reports indicated solid job gains and stable unemployment despite inflation remaining above target, supporting the Fed&#x27;s cautious approach to monetary policy. This economic backdrop maintained market expectations for a possible rate hike in September rather than cuts or no change.</p><div class="flex items-center gap-1.5 mt-3"><a href="https://www.welchforbes.com/insights/economic-outlook-july-2026/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" class="flex items-center justify-center rounded-md overflow-hidden bg-white" style="width:28px;height:28px;border:1px solid var(--color-pk-border)" data-state="closed" data-slot="tooltip-trigger"><img src="https://www.google.com/s2/favicons?domain=www.welchforbes.com&amp;sz=64" alt="Welch &amp; Forbes" referrerPolicy="no-referrer" width="18" height="18" loading="lazy" style="object-fit:contain"/></a></div></div></div><div class="flex gap-3 relative !h-0 !overflow-hidden !p-0 !m-0" style="content-visibility:hidden" inert="" aria-hidden="true"><div class="flex flex-col items-center shrink-0"><div class="w-px h-[7px] bg-pk-border"></div><div class="w-3 h-3 rounded-full border-2 border-pk-gray-300 bg-pk-surface shrink-0"></div><div class="w-px flex-1 bg-pk-border"></div></div><div class="flex-1 pb-8"><span class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary">Aug 6 2026</span><p class="text-body-base font-semibold text-pk-content-primary leading-5 mt-1">US Federal Reserve holds interest rates steady amid persistent inflation and geopolitical tensions</p><p class="flex items-center gap-1 text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary mt-0.5"><span>No change<!-- --> <!-- -->surges to<!-- --> <!-- -->74<!-- -->%</span><span class="inline-flex items-center gap-0.5 font-semibold text-pk-content-accent-green"><svg width="8" height="8" viewBox="0 0 12 12" fill="none" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><path d="M6.51952 2.5C6.28858 2.1 5.71123 2.1 5.48029 2.5L1.84298 8.8C1.61204 9.2 1.90072 9.7 2.3626 9.7L9.63721 9.7C10.0991 9.7 10.3878 9.2 10.1568 8.8L6.51952 2.5Z" fill="currentColor"></path></svg>18<!-- -->%</span></p><p class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-secondary leading-5 mt-1">The Federal Reserve maintained the federal funds rate at 3.50%-3.75% in early August, citing solid economic growth despite elevated inflation and uncertainty from the Middle East conflict. The decision supported the view that rates would remain higher for longer, sustaining market expectations for a possible September hike.</p><div class="flex items-center gap-1.5 mt-3"><a href="https://www.ahmedabadmirror.com/us-federal-reserve-holds-int-rates-steady/81918754.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" class="flex items-center justify-center rounded-md overflow-hidden bg-white" style="width:28px;height:28px;border:1px solid var(--color-pk-border)" data-state="closed" data-slot="tooltip-trigger"><img src="https://www.google.com/s2/favicons?domain=www.ahmedabadmirror.com&amp;sz=64" alt="Ahmedabad Mirror" referrerPolicy="no-referrer" width="18" height="18" loading="lazy" style="object-fit:contain"/></a><a href="https://www.live-feeds.com/feed/the-federal-reserve-faces-a-critical-decision-on-interest-rates" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" class="flex items-center justify-center rounded-md overflow-hidden bg-white" style="width:28px;height:28px;border:1px solid var(--color-pk-border)" data-state="closed" data-slot="tooltip-trigger"><img src="https://www.google.com/s2/favicons?domain=www.live-feeds.com&amp;sz=64" alt="Live Feeds" referrerPolicy="no-referrer" width="18" height="18" loading="lazy" style="object-fit:contain"/></a></div></div></div><div class="flex gap-3 relative !h-0 !overflow-hidden !p-0 !m-0" style="content-visibility:hidden" inert="" aria-hidden="true"><div class="flex flex-col items-center shrink-0"><div class="w-px h-[7px] bg-pk-border"></div><div class="w-3 h-3 rounded-full border-2 border-pk-gray-300 bg-pk-surface shrink-0"></div><div class="w-px flex-1 bg-pk-border"></div></div><div class="flex-1 pb-8"><span class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary">Aug 6 2026</span><p class="text-body-base font-semibold text-pk-content-primary leading-5 mt-1">US economy shows strain with job losses and rising borrowing costs ahead of September Fed meeting</p><p class="flex items-center gap-1 text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary mt-0.5"><span>25 bps increase<!-- --> <!-- -->rises to<!-- --> <!-- -->32<!-- -->%</span><span class="inline-flex items-center gap-0.5 font-semibold text-pk-content-accent-green"><svg width="8" height="8" viewBox="0 0 12 12" fill="none" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><path d="M6.51952 2.5C6.28858 2.1 5.71123 2.1 5.48029 2.5L1.84298 8.8C1.61204 9.2 1.90072 9.7 2.3626 9.7L9.63721 9.7C10.0991 9.7 10.3878 9.2 10.1568 8.8L6.51952 2.5Z" fill="currentColor"></path></svg>4<!-- -->%</span></p><p class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-secondary leading-5 mt-1">In early August, reports indicated 23,000 jobs lost in July and rising mortgage rates near 6.69%, signaling economic strain. These developments heightened market anticipation of a September rate hike by the Federal Reserve, as inflation remained elevated and geopolitical tensions persisted, influencing market expectations for tightening monetary policy.</p><div class="flex items-center gap-1.5 mt-3"><a href="https://www.thetechedvocate.org/unveiling-the-dire-reality-why-your-wallet-faces-a-double-whammy-in-august-2026/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" class="flex items-center justify-center rounded-md overflow-hidden bg-white" style="width:28px;height:28px;border:1px solid var(--color-pk-border)" data-state="closed" data-slot="tooltip-trigger"><img src="https://www.google.com/s2/favicons?domain=www.thetechedvocate.org&amp;sz=64" alt="The Techedvocate" referrerPolicy="no-referrer" width="18" height="18" loading="lazy" style="object-fit:contain"/></a></div></div></div><div class="flex gap-3 relative !h-0 !overflow-hidden !p-0 !m-0" style="content-visibility:hidden" inert="" aria-hidden="true"><div class="flex flex-col items-center shrink-0"><div class="w-px h-[7px] bg-pk-border"></div><div class="w-3 h-3 rounded-full border-2 border-pk-gray-300 bg-pk-surface shrink-0"></div><div class="w-px flex-1 bg-pk-border"></div></div><div class="flex-1 pb-8"><span class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary">Aug 6 2026</span><p class="text-body-base font-semibold text-pk-content-primary leading-5 mt-1">US economy shows signs of strain with job losses and rising borrowing costs</p><p class="flex items-center gap-1 text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary mt-0.5"><span>No change<!-- --> <!-- -->surges to<!-- --> <!-- -->55<!-- -->%</span><span class="inline-flex items-center gap-0.5 font-semibold text-pk-content-accent-green"><svg width="8" height="8" viewBox="0 0 12 12" fill="none" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><path d="M6.51952 2.5C6.28858 2.1 5.71123 2.1 5.48029 2.5L1.84298 8.8C1.61204 9.2 1.90072 9.7 2.3626 9.7L9.63721 9.7C10.0991 9.7 10.3878 9.2 10.1568 8.8L6.51952 2.5Z" fill="currentColor"></path></svg>16<!-- -->%</span></p><p class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-secondary leading-5 mt-1">Reports of 23,000 jobs lost in July and higher mortgage rates raised concerns about economic growth, influencing market sentiment ahead of the September Fed meeting. These factors supported expectations that the Fed would likely keep rates steady to monitor economic conditions.</p><div class="flex items-center gap-1.5 mt-3"><a href="https://www.live-feeds.com/feed/the-federal-reserve-faces-a-critical-decision-on-interest-rates" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" class="flex items-center justify-center rounded-md overflow-hidden bg-white" style="width:28px;height:28px;border:1px solid var(--color-pk-border)" data-state="closed" data-slot="tooltip-trigger"><img src="https://www.google.com/s2/favicons?domain=www.live-feeds.com&amp;sz=64" alt="Live Feed" referrerPolicy="no-referrer" width="18" height="18" loading="lazy" style="object-fit:contain"/></a></div></div></div><div class="flex gap-3 relative !h-0 !overflow-hidden !p-0 !m-0" style="content-visibility:hidden" inert="" aria-hidden="true"><div class="flex flex-col items-center shrink-0"><div class="w-px h-[7px] bg-pk-border"></div><div class="w-3 h-3 rounded-full border-2 border-pk-gray-300 bg-pk-surface shrink-0"></div><div class="w-px flex-1 bg-pk-border"></div></div><div class="flex-1 pb-8"><span class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary">Aug 6 2026</span><p class="text-body-base font-semibold text-pk-content-primary leading-5 mt-1">Federal Reserve holds interest rates steady at 3.5%-3.75%</p><p class="flex items-center gap-1 text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary mt-0.5"><span>No change<!-- --> <!-- -->jumps to<!-- --> <!-- -->61<!-- -->%</span><span class="inline-flex items-center gap-0.5 font-semibold text-pk-content-accent-green"><svg width="8" height="8" viewBox="0 0 12 12" fill="none" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><path d="M6.51952 2.5C6.28858 2.1 5.71123 2.1 5.48029 2.5L1.84298 8.8C1.61204 9.2 1.90072 9.7 2.3626 9.7L9.63721 9.7C10.0991 9.7 10.3878 9.2 10.1568 8.8L6.51952 2.5Z" fill="currentColor"></path></svg>12<!-- -->%</span></p><p class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-secondary leading-5 mt-1">On August 5, the Federal Reserve maintained its benchmark interest rate unchanged, citing solid economic growth despite inflation remaining above target and geopolitical uncertainty from the Middle East conflict. This reinforced market expectations for a potential September rate hike.</p><div class="flex items-center gap-1.5 mt-3"><a href="https://www.ahmedabadmirror.com/us-federal-reserve-holds-int-rates-steady/81918754.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" class="flex items-center justify-center rounded-md overflow-hidden bg-white" style="width:28px;height:28px;border:1px solid var(--color-pk-border)" data-state="closed" data-slot="tooltip-trigger"><img src="https://www.google.com/s2/favicons?domain=www.ahmedabadmirror.com&amp;sz=64" alt="Ahmedabad Mirror" referrerPolicy="no-referrer" width="18" height="18" loading="lazy" style="object-fit:contain"/></a></div></div></div><div class="flex gap-3 relative !h-0 !overflow-hidden !p-0 !m-0" style="content-visibility:hidden" inert="" aria-hidden="true"><div class="flex flex-col items-center shrink-0"><div class="w-px h-[7px] bg-pk-border"></div><div class="w-3 h-3 rounded-full border-2 border-pk-gray-300 bg-pk-surface shrink-0"></div><div class="w-px flex-1 bg-pk-border"></div></div><div class="flex-1 pb-8"><span class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary">Aug 6 2026</span><p class="text-body-base font-semibold text-pk-content-primary leading-5 mt-1">Softening labor market and high mortgage rates weigh on economy ahead of September Fed meeting</p><p class="flex items-center gap-1 text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary mt-0.5"><span>No change<!-- --> <!-- -->rises to<!-- --> <!-- -->54<!-- -->%</span><span class="inline-flex items-center gap-0.5 font-semibold text-pk-content-accent-green"><svg width="8" height="8" viewBox="0 0 12 12" fill="none" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><path d="M6.51952 2.5C6.28858 2.1 5.71123 2.1 5.48029 2.5L1.84298 8.8C1.61204 9.2 1.90072 9.7 2.3626 9.7L9.63721 9.7C10.0991 9.7 10.3878 9.2 10.1568 8.8L6.51952 2.5Z" fill="currentColor"></path></svg>4<!-- -->%</span></p><p class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-secondary leading-5 mt-1">July jobs data showed 23,000 jobs lost and mortgage rates remained high at 6.69%, raising concerns about economic strain. These developments influenced market expectations for the Fed&#x27;s September decision, with inflation and geopolitical risks still in focus.</p><div class="flex items-center gap-1.5 mt-3"><a href="https://www.live-feeds.com/feed/the-federal-reserve-faces-a-critical-decision-on-interest-rates" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" class="flex items-center justify-center rounded-md overflow-hidden bg-white" style="width:28px;height:28px;border:1px solid var(--color-pk-border)" data-state="closed" data-slot="tooltip-trigger"><img src="https://www.google.com/s2/favicons?domain=www.live-feeds.com&amp;sz=64" alt="Live Feeds" referrerPolicy="no-referrer" width="18" height="18" loading="lazy" style="object-fit:contain"/></a></div></div></div><div class="flex gap-3 relative !h-0 !overflow-hidden !p-0 !m-0" style="content-visibility:hidden" inert="" aria-hidden="true"><div class="flex flex-col items-center shrink-0"><div class="w-px h-[7px] bg-pk-border"></div><div class="w-3 h-3 rounded-full border-2 border-pk-gray-300 bg-pk-surface shrink-0"></div><div class="w-px flex-1 bg-pk-border"></div></div><div class="flex-1 pb-8"><span class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary">Aug 5 2026</span><p class="text-body-base font-semibold text-pk-content-primary leading-5 mt-1">Fed Governor Lisa Cook delivers speech on economic outlook</p><p class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-secondary leading-5 mt-1">Governor Lisa Cook&#x27;s speech on August 5 provided insights into the economic outlook, reinforcing the Fed&#x27;s cautious approach amid inflation and geopolitical risks. Such communications contributed to market reassessment of the Fed&#x27;s policy path, supporting expectations of a possible September rate increase.</p><div class="flex items-center gap-1.5 mt-3"><a href="https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/cook20260805a.htm" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" class="flex items-center justify-center rounded-md overflow-hidden bg-white" style="width:28px;height:28px;border:1px solid var(--color-pk-border)" data-state="closed" data-slot="tooltip-trigger"><img src="https://www.google.com/s2/favicons?domain=www.federalreserve.gov&amp;sz=64" alt="Federal Reserve Board" referrerPolicy="no-referrer" width="18" height="18" loading="lazy" style="object-fit:contain"/></a></div></div></div><div class="flex gap-3 relative !h-0 !overflow-hidden !p-0 !m-0" style="content-visibility:hidden" inert="" aria-hidden="true"><div class="flex flex-col items-center shrink-0"><div class="w-px h-[7px] bg-pk-border"></div><div class="w-3 h-3 rounded-full border-2 border-pk-gray-300 bg-pk-surface shrink-0"></div><div class="w-px flex-1 bg-pk-border"></div></div><div class="flex-1 pb-8"><span class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary">Aug 5 2026</span><p class="text-body-base font-semibold text-pk-content-primary leading-5 mt-1">US Federal Reserve holds interest rates steady at 3.5–3.75% amid inflation and global uncertainty</p><p class="flex items-center gap-1 text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary mt-0.5"><span>No change<!-- --> <!-- -->surges to<!-- --> <!-- -->63<!-- -->%</span><span class="inline-flex items-center gap-0.5 font-semibold text-pk-content-accent-green"><svg width="8" height="8" viewBox="0 0 12 12" fill="none" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><path d="M6.51952 2.5C6.28858 2.1 5.71123 2.1 5.48029 2.5L1.84298 8.8C1.61204 9.2 1.90072 9.7 2.3626 9.7L9.63721 9.7C10.0991 9.7 10.3878 9.2 10.1568 8.8L6.51952 2.5Z" fill="currentColor"></path></svg>18<!-- -->%</span></p><p class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-secondary leading-5 mt-1">On August 5, the Federal Reserve maintained its benchmark interest rate unchanged at 3.5–3.75%, emphasizing the economy&#x27;s solid growth despite inflation remaining above target and geopolitical tensions, including the Middle East conflict. The decision was supported by a 9-3 vote, with dissenters advocating for a rate hike due to inflation concerns.</p><div class="flex items-center gap-1.5 mt-3"><a href="https://www.ahmedabadmirror.com/us-federal-reserve-holds-int-rates-steady/81918754.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" class="flex items-center justify-center rounded-md overflow-hidden bg-white" style="width:28px;height:28px;border:1px solid var(--color-pk-border)" data-state="closed" data-slot="tooltip-trigger"><img src="https://www.google.com/s2/favicons?domain=www.ahmedabadmirror.com&amp;sz=64" alt="Ahmedabad Mirror" referrerPolicy="no-referrer" width="18" height="18" loading="lazy" style="object-fit:contain"/></a></div></div></div><div class="flex gap-3 relative !h-0 !overflow-hidden !p-0 !m-0" style="content-visibility:hidden" inert="" aria-hidden="true"><div class="flex flex-col items-center shrink-0"><div class="w-px h-[7px] bg-pk-border"></div><div class="w-3 h-3 rounded-full border-2 border-pk-gray-300 bg-pk-surface shrink-0"></div><div class="w-px flex-1 bg-pk-border"></div></div><div class="flex-1 pb-8"><span class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary">Aug 5 2026</span><p class="text-body-base font-semibold text-pk-content-primary leading-5 mt-1">Federal Reserve holds rates steady in July amid inflation concerns</p><p class="flex items-center gap-1 text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary mt-0.5"><span>No change<!-- --> <!-- -->rises to<!-- --> <!-- -->52<!-- -->%</span><span class="inline-flex items-center gap-0.5 font-semibold text-pk-content-accent-green"><svg width="8" height="8" viewBox="0 0 12 12" fill="none" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><path d="M6.51952 2.5C6.28858 2.1 5.71123 2.1 5.48029 2.5L1.84298 8.8C1.61204 9.2 1.90072 9.7 2.3626 9.7L9.63721 9.7C10.0991 9.7 10.3878 9.2 10.1568 8.8L6.51952 2.5Z" fill="currentColor"></path></svg>4<!-- -->%</span></p><p class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-secondary leading-5 mt-1">Following the July FOMC meeting, the Fed maintained the federal funds rate at 3.5%-3.75%, assessing inflation trends and economic outlook. The decision reflected a cautious approach with inflation still above the 2% goal and a stable labor market.</p><div class="flex items-center gap-1.5 mt-3"><a href="https://invested.mdm.ca/divided-fed-stays-the-course-as-inflation-remains-above-target/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" class="flex items-center justify-center rounded-md overflow-hidden bg-white" style="width:28px;height:28px;border:1px solid var(--color-pk-border)" data-state="closed" data-slot="tooltip-trigger"><img src="https://www.google.com/s2/favicons?domain=invested.mdm.ca&amp;sz=64" alt="Invested MD" referrerPolicy="no-referrer" width="18" height="18" loading="lazy" style="object-fit:contain"/></a></div></div></div><div class="flex gap-3 relative !h-0 !overflow-hidden !p-0 !m-0" style="content-visibility:hidden" inert="" aria-hidden="true"><div class="flex flex-col items-center shrink-0"><div class="w-px h-[7px] bg-pk-border"></div><div class="w-3 h-3 rounded-full border-2 border-pk-gray-300 bg-pk-surface shrink-0"></div><div class="w-px flex-1 bg-pk-border"></div></div><div class="flex-1 pb-8"><span class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary">Aug 5 2026</span><p class="text-body-base font-semibold text-pk-content-primary leading-5 mt-1">Fed Governor Lisa Cook discusses economic outlook amid inflation concerns</p><p class="flex items-center gap-1 text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary mt-0.5"><span>25 bps increase<!-- --> <!-- -->surges to<!-- --> <!-- -->51<!-- -->%</span><span class="inline-flex items-center gap-0.5 font-semibold text-pk-content-accent-green"><svg width="8" height="8" viewBox="0 0 12 12" fill="none" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><path d="M6.51952 2.5C6.28858 2.1 5.71123 2.1 5.48029 2.5L1.84298 8.8C1.61204 9.2 1.90072 9.7 2.3626 9.7L9.63721 9.7C10.0991 9.7 10.3878 9.2 10.1568 8.8L6.51952 2.5Z" fill="currentColor"></path></svg>18<!-- -->%</span></p><p class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-secondary leading-5 mt-1">Governor Cook&#x27;s speech highlighted ongoing inflation pressures and economic uncertainties, reinforcing market views that the Fed may need to raise rates to achieve price stability, contributing to increased expectations of a 25 bps hike in September.</p><div class="flex items-center gap-1.5 mt-3"><a href="https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/cook20260805a.htm" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" class="flex items-center justify-center rounded-md overflow-hidden bg-white" style="width:28px;height:28px;border:1px solid var(--color-pk-border)" data-state="closed" data-slot="tooltip-trigger"><img src="https://www.google.com/s2/favicons?domain=www.federalreserve.gov&amp;sz=64" alt="Federal Reserve Board" referrerPolicy="no-referrer" width="18" height="18" loading="lazy" style="object-fit:contain"/></a></div></div></div><div class="flex gap-3 relative !h-0 !overflow-hidden !p-0 !m-0" style="content-visibility:hidden" inert="" aria-hidden="true"><div class="flex flex-col items-center shrink-0"><div class="w-px h-[7px] bg-pk-border"></div><div class="w-3 h-3 rounded-full border-2 border-pk-gray-300 bg-pk-surface shrink-0"></div><div class="w-px flex-1 bg-pk-border"></div></div><div class="flex-1 pb-8"><span class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary">Aug 4 2026</span><p class="text-body-base font-semibold text-pk-content-primary leading-5 mt-1">Treasury report highlights hawkish Fed outlook amid inflation and geopolitical tensions</p><p class="flex items-center gap-1 text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary mt-0.5"><span>25 bps increase<!-- --> <!-- -->jumps to<!-- --> <!-- -->37<!-- -->%</span><span class="inline-flex items-center gap-0.5 font-semibold text-pk-content-accent-green"><svg width="8" height="8" viewBox="0 0 12 12" fill="none" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><path d="M6.51952 2.5C6.28858 2.1 5.71123 2.1 5.48029 2.5L1.84298 8.8C1.61204 9.2 1.90072 9.7 2.3626 9.7L9.63721 9.7C10.0991 9.7 10.3878 9.2 10.1568 8.8L6.51952 2.5Z" fill="currentColor"></path></svg>11<!-- -->%</span></p><p class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-secondary leading-5 mt-1">The Treasury Borrowing Advisory Committee reported a more hawkish Fed outlook with increased inflation projections and potential rate hikes, influenced by geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and elevated energy prices, contributing to market uncertainty ahead of September.</p><div class="flex items-center gap-1.5 mt-3"><a href="https://home.treasury.gov/news/press-releases/sb0591" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" class="flex items-center justify-center rounded-md overflow-hidden bg-white" style="width:28px;height:28px;border:1px solid var(--color-pk-border)" data-state="closed" data-slot="tooltip-trigger"><img src="https://www.google.com/s2/favicons?domain=home.treasury.gov&amp;sz=64" alt="home.treasury.gov" referrerPolicy="no-referrer" width="18" height="18" loading="lazy" style="object-fit:contain"/></a></div></div></div><div class="flex gap-3 relative !h-0 !overflow-hidden !p-0 !m-0" style="content-visibility:hidden" inert="" aria-hidden="true"><div class="flex flex-col items-center shrink-0"><div class="w-px h-[7px] bg-pk-border"></div><div class="w-3 h-3 rounded-full border-2 border-pk-gray-300 bg-pk-surface shrink-0"></div><div class="w-px flex-1 bg-pk-border"></div></div><div class="flex-1 pb-8"><span class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary">Aug 3 2026</span><p class="text-body-base font-semibold text-pk-content-primary leading-5 mt-1">July ISM Manufacturing Index rises to 55.6, signaling economic expansion</p><p class="flex items-center gap-1 text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary mt-0.5"><span>No change<!-- --> <!-- -->jumps to<!-- --> <!-- -->63<!-- -->%</span><span class="inline-flex items-center gap-0.5 font-semibold text-pk-content-accent-green"><svg width="8" height="8" viewBox="0 0 12 12" fill="none" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><path d="M6.51952 2.5C6.28858 2.1 5.71123 2.1 5.48029 2.5L1.84298 8.8C1.61204 9.2 1.90072 9.7 2.3626 9.7L9.63721 9.7C10.0991 9.7 10.3878 9.2 10.1568 8.8L6.51952 2.5Z" fill="currentColor"></path></svg>11<!-- -->%</span></p><p class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-secondary leading-5 mt-1">The ISM Manufacturing PMI unexpectedly increased to 55.6 in July, indicating sustained growth in the manufacturing sector. This strong data prompted markets to reassess the Fed&#x27;s policy path, reducing expectations for an immediate September hike but supporting a higher rate outlook later in 2026.</p><div class="flex items-center gap-1.5 mt-3"><a href="https://www.interactivecrypto.com/fed-funds-rate-outlook-shifts-as-july-ism-data-spurs-market-repricing-aug-2026" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" class="flex items-center justify-center rounded-md overflow-hidden bg-white" style="width:28px;height:28px;border:1px solid var(--color-pk-border)" data-state="closed" data-slot="tooltip-trigger"><img src="https://www.google.com/s2/favicons?domain=www.interactivecrypto.com&amp;sz=64" alt="Interactive Crypto" referrerPolicy="no-referrer" width="18" height="18" loading="lazy" style="object-fit:contain"/></a></div></div></div><div class="flex gap-3 relative !h-0 !overflow-hidden !p-0 !m-0" style="content-visibility:hidden" inert="" aria-hidden="true"><div class="flex flex-col items-center shrink-0"><div class="w-px h-[7px] bg-pk-border"></div><div class="w-3 h-3 rounded-full border-2 border-pk-gray-300 bg-pk-surface shrink-0"></div><div class="w-px flex-1 bg-pk-border"></div></div><div class="flex-1 pb-8"><span class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary">Aug 3 2026</span><p class="text-body-base font-semibold text-pk-content-primary leading-5 mt-1">Fed Chair Warsh&#x27;s guarded communication shakes market confidence</p><p class="flex items-center gap-1 text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary mt-0.5"><span>25 bps increase<!-- --> <!-- -->surges to<!-- --> <!-- -->45<!-- -->%</span><span class="inline-flex items-center gap-0.5 font-semibold text-pk-content-accent-green"><svg width="8" height="8" viewBox="0 0 12 12" fill="none" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><path d="M6.51952 2.5C6.28858 2.1 5.71123 2.1 5.48029 2.5L1.84298 8.8C1.61204 9.2 1.90072 9.7 2.3626 9.7L9.63721 9.7C10.0991 9.7 10.3878 9.2 10.1568 8.8L6.51952 2.5Z" fill="currentColor"></path></svg>20<!-- -->%</span></p><p class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-secondary leading-5 mt-1">Following the July meeting, Chair Warsh&#x27;s press conference was perceived as contradictory and overly confident, causing bond yields to rise sharply as investors priced in higher inflation risks and a hawkish Fed stance, boosting expectations for a September rate hike.</p><div class="flex items-center gap-1.5 mt-3"><a href="https://www.morgankenwood.com/commentary/weekly-market-commentary-august-3-2026" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" class="flex items-center justify-center rounded-md overflow-hidden bg-white" style="width:28px;height:28px;border:1px solid var(--color-pk-border)" data-state="closed" data-slot="tooltip-trigger"><img src="https://www.google.com/s2/favicons?domain=www.morgankenwood.com&amp;sz=64" alt="Morgan Kenwood Advisors" referrerPolicy="no-referrer" width="18" height="18" loading="lazy" style="object-fit:contain"/></a></div></div></div><div class="flex gap-3 relative !h-0 !overflow-hidden !p-0 !m-0" style="content-visibility:hidden" inert="" aria-hidden="true"><div class="flex flex-col items-center shrink-0"><div class="w-px h-[7px] bg-pk-border"></div><div class="w-3 h-3 rounded-full border-2 border-pk-gray-300 bg-pk-surface shrink-0"></div><div class="w-px flex-1 bg-pk-border"></div></div><div class="flex-1 pb-8"><span class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary">Aug 3 2026</span><p class="text-body-base font-semibold text-pk-content-primary leading-5 mt-1">Fed Chair Warsh&#x27;s cautious comments shake market confidence, bond yields rise</p><p class="flex items-center gap-1 text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary mt-0.5"><span>No change<!-- --> <!-- -->jumps to<!-- --> <!-- -->49<!-- -->%</span><span class="inline-flex items-center gap-0.5 font-semibold text-pk-content-accent-green"><svg width="8" height="8" viewBox="0 0 12 12" fill="none" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><path d="M6.51952 2.5C6.28858 2.1 5.71123 2.1 5.48029 2.5L1.84298 8.8C1.61204 9.2 1.90072 9.7 2.3626 9.7L9.63721 9.7C10.0991 9.7 10.3878 9.2 10.1568 8.8L6.51952 2.5Z" fill="currentColor"></path></svg>10<!-- -->%</span></p><p class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-secondary leading-5 mt-1">Following the July meeting, Chair Warsh&#x27;s guarded and somewhat contradictory remarks during the press conference led to a sell-off in bonds and a rise in Treasury yields, reflecting market skepticism about the Fed&#x27;s future rate path and reinforcing expectations of a September hike.</p><div class="flex items-center gap-1.5 mt-3"><a href="https://www.morgankenwood.com/commentary/weekly-market-commentary-august-3-2026" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" class="flex items-center justify-center rounded-md overflow-hidden bg-white" style="width:28px;height:28px;border:1px solid var(--color-pk-border)" data-state="closed" data-slot="tooltip-trigger"><img src="https://www.google.com/s2/favicons?domain=www.morgankenwood.com&amp;sz=64" alt="Morgan Kenwood Advisors" referrerPolicy="no-referrer" width="18" height="18" loading="lazy" style="object-fit:contain"/></a></div></div></div><div class="flex gap-3 relative !h-0 !overflow-hidden !p-0 !m-0" style="content-visibility:hidden" inert="" aria-hidden="true"><div class="flex flex-col items-center shrink-0"><div class="w-px h-[7px] bg-pk-border"></div><div class="w-3 h-3 rounded-full border-2 border-pk-gray-300 bg-pk-surface shrink-0"></div><div class="w-px flex-1 bg-pk-border"></div></div><div class="flex-1 pb-8"><span class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary">Aug 3 2026</span><p class="text-body-base font-semibold text-pk-content-primary leading-5 mt-1">FOMC votes 9-3 to hold rates steady amid inflation concerns</p><p class="flex items-center gap-1 text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary mt-0.5"><span>No change<!-- --> <!-- -->surges to<!-- --> <!-- -->63<!-- -->%</span><span class="inline-flex items-center gap-0.5 font-semibold text-pk-content-accent-green"><svg width="8" height="8" viewBox="0 0 12 12" fill="none" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><path d="M6.51952 2.5C6.28858 2.1 5.71123 2.1 5.48029 2.5L1.84298 8.8C1.61204 9.2 1.90072 9.7 2.3626 9.7L9.63721 9.7C10.0991 9.7 10.3878 9.2 10.1568 8.8L6.51952 2.5Z" fill="currentColor"></path></svg>20<!-- -->%</span></p><p class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-secondary leading-5 mt-1">The FOMC&#x27;s decision to hold rates steady with some dissenters voting for an increase reflected ongoing inflation worries, initially boosting confidence in no change but also increasing uncertainty about future hikes.</p><div class="flex items-center gap-1.5 mt-3"><a href="https://kingcapitaladvisors.com/market-insights/august-3rd-2026/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" class="flex items-center justify-center rounded-md overflow-hidden bg-white" style="width:28px;height:28px;border:1px solid var(--color-pk-border)" data-state="closed" data-slot="tooltip-trigger"><img src="https://www.google.com/s2/favicons?domain=kingcapitaladvisors.com&amp;sz=64" alt="King Capital Advisors" referrerPolicy="no-referrer" width="18" height="18" loading="lazy" style="object-fit:contain"/></a></div></div></div><div class="flex gap-3 relative !h-0 !overflow-hidden !p-0 !m-0" style="content-visibility:hidden" inert="" aria-hidden="true"><div class="flex flex-col items-center shrink-0"><div class="w-px h-[7px] bg-pk-border"></div><div class="w-3 h-3 rounded-full border-2 border-pk-gray-300 bg-pk-surface shrink-0"></div><div class="w-px flex-1 bg-pk-border"></div></div><div class="flex-1 pb-8"><span class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary">Aug 3 2026</span><p class="text-body-base font-semibold text-pk-content-primary leading-5 mt-1">Fed Chair Warsh’s press conference shakes market confidence, Treasury yields rise</p><p class="flex items-center gap-1 text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary mt-0.5"><span>25 bps increase<!-- --> <!-- -->jumps to<!-- --> <!-- -->37<!-- -->%</span><span class="inline-flex items-center gap-0.5 font-semibold text-pk-content-accent-green"><svg width="8" height="8" viewBox="0 0 12 12" fill="none" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><path d="M6.51952 2.5C6.28858 2.1 5.71123 2.1 5.48029 2.5L1.84298 8.8C1.61204 9.2 1.90072 9.7 2.3626 9.7L9.63721 9.7C10.0991 9.7 10.3878 9.2 10.1568 8.8L6.51952 2.5Z" fill="currentColor"></path></svg>6<!-- -->%</span></p><p class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-secondary leading-5 mt-1">After the July 29 FOMC meeting, Chair Warsh’s contradictory and confident remarks during the press conference unsettled markets, causing Treasury yields to jump to multi-year highs and increasing expectations for a September rate hike.</p><div class="flex items-center gap-1.5 mt-3"><a href="https://www.morgankenwood.com/commentary/weekly-market-commentary-august-3-2026/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" class="flex items-center justify-center rounded-md overflow-hidden bg-white" style="width:28px;height:28px;border:1px solid var(--color-pk-border)" data-state="closed" data-slot="tooltip-trigger"><img src="https://www.google.com/s2/favicons?domain=www.morgankenwood.com&amp;sz=64" alt="Morgan Kenwood Advisors" referrerPolicy="no-referrer" width="18" height="18" loading="lazy" style="object-fit:contain"/></a></div></div></div><div class="flex gap-3 relative !h-0 !overflow-hidden !p-0 !m-0" style="content-visibility:hidden" inert="" aria-hidden="true"><div class="flex flex-col items-center shrink-0"><div class="w-px h-[7px] bg-pk-border"></div><div class="w-3 h-3 rounded-full border-2 border-pk-gray-300 bg-pk-surface shrink-0"></div><div class="w-px flex-1 bg-pk-border"></div></div><div class="flex-1 pb-8"><span class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary">Aug 3 2026</span><p class="text-body-base font-semibold text-pk-content-primary leading-5 mt-1">Markets price in 72% probability of no rate change in September 2026</p><p class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-secondary leading-5 mt-1">Market data showed a strong expectation for the Fed to hold rates steady in September, reflecting uncertainty amid elevated inflation and geopolitical risks. The low probability of cuts indicated persistent inflation concerns.</p><div class="flex items-center gap-1.5 mt-3"><a href="https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/fed-rate/fed-hold-expected-in-september-2026-zero-cuts-for-year-priced-at-85-75d00d" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" class="flex items-center justify-center rounded-md overflow-hidden bg-white" style="width:28px;height:28px;border:1px solid var(--color-pk-border)" data-state="closed" data-slot="tooltip-trigger"><img src="https://www.google.com/s2/favicons?domain=simplefunctions.dev&amp;sz=64" alt="SimpleFunctions" referrerPolicy="no-referrer" width="18" height="18" loading="lazy" style="object-fit:contain"/></a></div></div></div><div class="flex gap-3 relative !h-0 !overflow-hidden !p-0 !m-0" style="content-visibility:hidden" inert="" aria-hidden="true"><div class="flex flex-col items-center shrink-0"><div class="w-px h-[7px] bg-pk-border"></div><div class="w-3 h-3 rounded-full border-2 border-pk-gray-300 bg-pk-surface shrink-0"></div><div class="w-px flex-1 bg-pk-border"></div></div><div class="flex-1 pb-8"><span class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary">Aug 3 2026</span><p class="text-body-base font-semibold text-pk-content-primary leading-5 mt-1">Market Data Shows Increased Probability of September Rate Hike</p><p class="flex items-center gap-1 text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary mt-0.5"><span>25 bps increase<!-- --> <!-- -->jumps to<!-- --> <!-- -->56<!-- -->%</span><span class="inline-flex items-center gap-0.5 font-semibold text-pk-content-accent-green"><svg width="8" height="8" viewBox="0 0 12 12" fill="none" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><path d="M6.51952 2.5C6.28858 2.1 5.71123 2.1 5.48029 2.5L1.84298 8.8C1.61204 9.2 1.90072 9.7 2.3626 9.7L9.63721 9.7C10.0991 9.7 10.3878 9.2 10.1568 8.8L6.51952 2.5Z" fill="currentColor"></path></svg>14<!-- -->%</span></p><p class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-secondary leading-5 mt-1">Following the July FOMC meeting, interest rate futures indicated a 67.2% probability of a 25 basis points hike in September, reflecting investor expectations of tightening due to persistent inflation. This market sentiment contributed to the price increase for the &#x27;25 bps increase&#x27; outcome and decline in the &#x27;No change&#x27; option.</p><div class="flex items-center gap-1.5 mt-3"><a href="https://quorumpw.com/insights/august-2026-market-update/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" class="flex items-center justify-center rounded-md overflow-hidden bg-white" style="width:28px;height:28px;border:1px solid var(--color-pk-border)" data-state="closed" data-slot="tooltip-trigger"><img src="https://www.google.com/s2/favicons?domain=quorumpw.com&amp;sz=64" alt="Quorum Private Wealth" referrerPolicy="no-referrer" width="18" height="18" loading="lazy" style="object-fit:contain"/></a></div></div></div><div class="flex gap-3 relative !h-0 !overflow-hidden !p-0 !m-0" style="content-visibility:hidden" inert="" aria-hidden="true"><div class="flex flex-col items-center shrink-0"><div class="w-px h-[7px] bg-pk-border"></div><div class="w-3 h-3 rounded-full border-2 border-pk-gray-300 bg-pk-surface shrink-0"></div><div class="w-px flex-1 bg-pk-border"></div></div><div class="flex-1 pb-8"><span class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary">Aug 2 2026</span><p class="text-body-base font-semibold text-pk-content-primary leading-5 mt-1">Federal Reserve holds interest rate at 3.75% amid DOJ criminal investigation into Chair Powell</p><p class="flex items-center gap-1 text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary mt-0.5"><span>No change<!-- --> <!-- -->surges to<!-- --> <!-- -->63<!-- -->%</span><span class="inline-flex items-center gap-0.5 font-semibold text-pk-content-accent-green"><svg width="8" height="8" viewBox="0 0 12 12" fill="none" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><path d="M6.51952 2.5C6.28858 2.1 5.71123 2.1 5.48029 2.5L1.84298 8.8C1.61204 9.2 1.90072 9.7 2.3626 9.7L9.63721 9.7C10.0991 9.7 10.3878 9.2 10.1568 8.8L6.51952 2.5Z" fill="currentColor"></path></svg>20<!-- -->%</span></p><p class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-secondary leading-5 mt-1">The Federal Reserve paused after three consecutive rate cuts, maintaining the benchmark interest rate at 3.75%. Chair Jerome Powell faced a Department of Justice criminal investigation over alleged false statements to Congress, adding political complexity but not altering the Fed&#x27;s cautious monetary policy stance.</p><div class="flex items-center gap-1.5 mt-3"><a href="https://arabpress.com/federal-reserve-holds-interest-rate-at-3-75-as-powell-faces-doj-criminal-investigation-during-2026-decision" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" class="flex items-center justify-center rounded-md overflow-hidden bg-white" style="width:28px;height:28px;border:1px solid var(--color-pk-border)" data-state="closed" data-slot="tooltip-trigger"><img src="https://www.google.com/s2/favicons?domain=arabpress.com&amp;sz=64" alt="Arab Press" referrerPolicy="no-referrer" width="18" height="18" loading="lazy" style="object-fit:contain"/></a></div></div></div><div class="flex gap-3 relative !h-0 !overflow-hidden !p-0 !m-0" style="content-visibility:hidden" inert="" aria-hidden="true"><div class="flex flex-col items-center shrink-0"><div class="w-px h-[7px] bg-pk-border"></div><div class="w-3 h-3 rounded-full border-2 border-pk-gray-300 bg-pk-surface shrink-0"></div><div class="w-px flex-1 bg-pk-border"></div></div><div class="flex-1 pb-8"><span class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary">Aug 2 2026</span><p class="text-body-base font-semibold text-pk-content-primary leading-5 mt-1">Rising Market Odds for September Rate Hike Amid Inflation and Geopolitical Concerns</p><p class="flex items-center gap-1 text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary mt-0.5"><span>25 bps increase<!-- --> <!-- -->rises to<!-- --> <!-- -->56<!-- -->%</span><span class="inline-flex items-center gap-0.5 font-semibold text-pk-content-accent-green"><svg width="8" height="8" viewBox="0 0 12 12" fill="none" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><path d="M6.51952 2.5C6.28858 2.1 5.71123 2.1 5.48029 2.5L1.84298 8.8C1.61204 9.2 1.90072 9.7 2.3626 9.7L9.63721 9.7C10.0991 9.7 10.3878 9.2 10.1568 8.8L6.51952 2.5Z" fill="currentColor"></path></svg>3<!-- -->%</span></p><p class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-secondary leading-5 mt-1">As of early August, market data indicated increasing probability of a 25 bps rate hike at the September FOMC meeting, driven by persistent inflation pressures and geopolitical tensions, particularly the Middle East conflict. This shift reflects the Fed&#x27;s hawkish stance and the market&#x27;s adjustment to a &#x27;higher for longer&#x27; interest rate environment.</p><div class="flex items-center gap-1.5 mt-3"><a href="https://intellectia.ai/blog/fed-interest-rate-decision-july-2026-analysis" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" class="flex items-center justify-center rounded-md overflow-hidden bg-white" style="width:28px;height:28px;border:1px solid var(--color-pk-border)" data-state="closed" data-slot="tooltip-trigger"><img src="https://www.google.com/s2/favicons?domain=intellectia.ai&amp;sz=64" alt="Intellectia" referrerPolicy="no-referrer" width="18" height="18" loading="lazy" style="object-fit:contain"/></a></div></div></div><div class="flex gap-3 relative !h-0 !overflow-hidden !p-0 !m-0" style="content-visibility:hidden" inert="" aria-hidden="true"><div class="flex flex-col items-center shrink-0"><div class="w-px h-[7px] bg-pk-border"></div><div class="w-3 h-3 rounded-full border-2 border-pk-gray-300 bg-pk-surface shrink-0"></div><div class="w-px flex-1 bg-pk-border"></div></div><div class="flex-1 pb-8"><span class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary">Aug 1 2026</span><p class="text-body-base font-semibold text-pk-content-primary leading-5 mt-1">Geopolitical tensions ease as U.S.-Iran hostilities pause, easing inflation concerns</p><p class="flex items-center gap-1 text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary mt-0.5"><span>No change<!-- --> <!-- -->jumps to<!-- --> <!-- -->53<!-- -->%</span><span class="inline-flex items-center gap-0.5 font-semibold text-pk-content-accent-green"><svg width="8" height="8" viewBox="0 0 12 12" fill="none" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><path d="M6.51952 2.5C6.28858 2.1 5.71123 2.1 5.48029 2.5L1.84298 8.8C1.61204 9.2 1.90072 9.7 2.3626 9.7L9.63721 9.7C10.0991 9.7 10.3878 9.2 10.1568 8.8L6.51952 2.5Z" fill="currentColor"></path></svg>14<!-- -->%</span></p><p class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-secondary leading-5 mt-1">A temporary pause in U.S.-Iran hostilities in early August 2026 led to a decline in oil prices and reduced near-term inflation fears. This development contributed to market reassessment of Fed rate hike probabilities, slightly lowering the odds of aggressive tightening.</p><div class="flex items-center gap-1.5 mt-3"><a href="https://headlinez.news/topic/federal-reserve" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" class="flex items-center justify-center rounded-md overflow-hidden bg-white" style="width:28px;height:28px;border:1px solid var(--color-pk-border)" data-state="closed" data-slot="tooltip-trigger"><img src="https://www.google.com/s2/favicons?domain=headlinez.news&amp;sz=64" alt="headlinez.news" referrerPolicy="no-referrer" width="18" height="18" loading="lazy" style="object-fit:contain"/></a></div></div></div><div class="flex gap-3 relative !h-0 !overflow-hidden !p-0 !m-0" style="content-visibility:hidden" inert="" aria-hidden="true"><div class="flex flex-col items-center shrink-0"><div class="w-px h-[7px] bg-pk-border"></div><div class="w-3 h-3 rounded-full border-2 border-pk-gray-300 bg-pk-surface shrink-0"></div><div class="w-px flex-1 bg-pk-border"></div></div><div class="flex-1 pb-8"><span class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary">Aug 1 2026</span><p class="text-body-base font-semibold text-pk-content-primary leading-5 mt-1">Markets react to Fed&#x27;s July decision and geopolitical tensions easing</p><p class="flex items-center gap-1 text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary mt-0.5"><span>No change<!-- --> <!-- -->surges to<!-- --> <!-- -->64<!-- -->%</span><span class="inline-flex items-center gap-0.5 font-semibold text-pk-content-accent-green"><svg width="8" height="8" viewBox="0 0 12 12" fill="none" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><path d="M6.51952 2.5C6.28858 2.1 5.71123 2.1 5.48029 2.5L1.84298 8.8C1.61204 9.2 1.90072 9.7 2.3626 9.7L9.63721 9.7C10.0991 9.7 10.3878 9.2 10.1568 8.8L6.51952 2.5Z" fill="currentColor"></path></svg>21<!-- -->%</span></p><p class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-secondary leading-5 mt-1">Following the July Fed decision, markets showed volatility influenced by easing U.S.-Iran hostilities and fluctuating oil prices, which affected inflation outlooks and Fed rate expectations. This contributed to price movements favoring &#x27;No change&#x27; and &#x27;25 bps increase&#x27; outcomes as investors reassessed risks.</p><div class="flex items-center gap-1.5 mt-3"><a href="https://headlinez.news/topic/federal-reserve" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" class="flex items-center justify-center rounded-md overflow-hidden bg-white" style="width:28px;height:28px;border:1px solid var(--color-pk-border)" data-state="closed" data-slot="tooltip-trigger"><img src="https://www.google.com/s2/favicons?domain=headlinez.news&amp;sz=64" alt="headlinez.news" referrerPolicy="no-referrer" width="18" height="18" loading="lazy" style="object-fit:contain"/></a></div></div></div><div class="flex gap-3 relative !h-0 !overflow-hidden !p-0 !m-0" style="content-visibility:hidden" inert="" aria-hidden="true"><div class="flex flex-col items-center shrink-0"><div class="w-px h-[7px] bg-pk-border"></div><div class="w-3 h-3 rounded-full border-2 border-pk-gray-300 bg-pk-surface shrink-0"></div><div class="w-px flex-1 bg-pk-border"></div></div><div class="flex-1 pb-8"><span class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary">Jul 29 2026</span><p class="text-body-base font-semibold text-pk-content-primary leading-5 mt-1">Federal Reserve maintains interest rates and announces five task forces</p><p class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-secondary leading-5 mt-1">At the July FOMC meeting, the Federal Reserve kept interest rates unchanged and announced the creation of five task forces to review monetary policy decision-making and communication, signaling a cautious approach amid persistent inflation and economic uncertainty.</p><div class="flex items-center gap-1.5 mt-3"><a href="https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents.htm" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" class="flex items-center justify-center rounded-md overflow-hidden bg-white" style="width:28px;height:28px;border:1px solid var(--color-pk-border)" data-state="closed" data-slot="tooltip-trigger"><img src="https://www.google.com/s2/favicons?domain=www.federalreserve.gov&amp;sz=64" alt="Federal Reserve Board" referrerPolicy="no-referrer" width="18" height="18" loading="lazy" style="object-fit:contain"/></a></div></div></div><div class="flex gap-3 relative !h-0 !overflow-hidden !p-0 !m-0" style="content-visibility:hidden" inert="" aria-hidden="true"><div class="flex flex-col items-center shrink-0"><div class="w-px h-[7px] bg-pk-border"></div><div class="w-3 h-3 rounded-full border-2 border-pk-gray-300 bg-pk-surface shrink-0"></div><div class="w-px flex-1 bg-pk-border"></div></div><div class="flex-1 pb-8"><span class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary">Jul 29 2026</span><p class="text-body-base font-semibold text-pk-content-primary leading-5 mt-1">FOMC Maintains Federal Funds Rate at 3.5%–3.75% with Hawkish Tone</p><p class="flex items-center gap-1 text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary mt-0.5"><span>No change<!-- --> <!-- -->dips to<!-- --> <!-- -->40<!-- -->%</span><span class="inline-flex items-center gap-0.5 font-semibold text-pk-content-accent-red"><svg width="8" height="8" viewBox="0 0 12 12" fill="none" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><path d="M6.51952 9.5C6.28858 9.9 5.71123 9.9 5.48029 9.5L1.84298 3.2C1.61204 2.8 1.90072 2.3 2.3626 2.3L9.63721 2.3C10.0991 2.3 10.3878 2.8 10.1568 3.2L6.51952 9.5Z" fill="currentColor"></path></svg>2<!-- -->%</span></p><p class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-secondary leading-5 mt-1">The July FOMC meeting resulted in a 9-3 vote to keep rates steady, with three dissenters favoring a 25 bps hike due to inflation concerns. The statement&#x27;s hawkish language caused some market volatility but ultimately reinforced the expectation of no change in September.</p><div class="flex items-center gap-1.5 mt-3"><a href="https://www.ahmedabadmirror.com/us-federal-reserve-holds-int-rates-steady/81918754.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" class="flex items-center justify-center rounded-md overflow-hidden bg-white" style="width:28px;height:28px;border:1px solid var(--color-pk-border)" data-state="closed" data-slot="tooltip-trigger"><img src="https://www.google.com/s2/favicons?domain=www.ahmedabadmirror.com&amp;sz=64" alt="Ahmedabad Mirror" referrerPolicy="no-referrer" width="18" height="18" loading="lazy" style="object-fit:contain"/></a></div></div></div><div class="flex gap-3 relative !h-0 !overflow-hidden !p-0 !m-0" style="content-visibility:hidden" inert="" aria-hidden="true"><div class="flex flex-col items-center shrink-0"><div class="w-px h-[7px] bg-pk-border"></div><div class="w-3 h-3 rounded-full border-2 border-pk-gray-300 bg-pk-surface shrink-0"></div><div class="w-px flex-1 bg-pk-border"></div></div><div class="flex-1 pb-8"><span class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary">Jul 29 2026</span><p class="text-body-base font-semibold text-pk-content-primary leading-5 mt-1">Fed Chair Warsh commits to press conferences amid market volatility</p><p class="flex items-center gap-1 text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary mt-0.5"><span>No change<!-- --> <!-- -->surges to<!-- --> <!-- -->68<!-- -->%</span><span class="inline-flex items-center gap-0.5 font-semibold text-pk-content-accent-green"><svg width="8" height="8" viewBox="0 0 12 12" fill="none" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><path d="M6.51952 2.5C6.28858 2.1 5.71123 2.1 5.48029 2.5L1.84298 8.8C1.61204 9.2 1.90072 9.7 2.3626 9.7L9.63721 9.7C10.0991 9.7 10.3878 9.2 10.1568 8.8L6.51952 2.5Z" fill="currentColor"></path></svg>15<!-- -->%</span></p><p class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-secondary leading-5 mt-1">Following the July meeting, Fed Chair Kevin Warsh committed to continuing press conferences for the remainder of 2026, aiming to improve communication amid internal divisions and market volatility caused by inflation and geopolitical tensions. This transparency helped stabilize market expectations around the Fed&#x27;s policy path.</p><div class="flex items-center gap-1.5 mt-3"><a href="https://finance.yahoo.com/economy/live/fed-meeting-live-federal-reserve-july-interest-rate-decision-141813444.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" class="flex items-center justify-center rounded-md overflow-hidden bg-white" style="width:28px;height:28px;border:1px solid var(--color-pk-border)" data-state="closed" data-slot="tooltip-trigger"><img src="https://www.google.com/s2/favicons?domain=finance.yahoo.com&amp;sz=64" alt="Yahoo Finance" referrerPolicy="no-referrer" width="18" height="18" loading="lazy" style="object-fit:contain"/></a></div></div></div><div class="flex gap-3 relative !h-0 !overflow-hidden !p-0 !m-0" style="content-visibility:hidden" inert="" aria-hidden="true"><div class="flex flex-col items-center shrink-0"><div class="w-px h-[7px] bg-pk-border"></div><div class="w-3 h-3 rounded-full border-2 border-pk-gray-300 bg-pk-surface shrink-0"></div><div class="w-px flex-1 bg-pk-border"></div></div><div class="flex-1 pb-8"><span class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary">Jul 29 2026</span><p class="text-body-base font-semibold text-pk-content-primary leading-5 mt-1">Federal Reserve announces maintenance of interest rate paid on reserve balances at 3.65%</p><p class="flex items-center gap-1 text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary mt-0.5"><span>No change<!-- --> <!-- -->jumps to<!-- --> <!-- -->49<!-- -->%</span><span class="inline-flex items-center gap-0.5 font-semibold text-pk-content-accent-green"><svg width="8" height="8" viewBox="0 0 12 12" fill="none" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><path d="M6.51952 2.5C6.28858 2.1 5.71123 2.1 5.48029 2.5L1.84298 8.8C1.61204 9.2 1.90072 9.7 2.3626 9.7L9.63721 9.7C10.0991 9.7 10.3878 9.2 10.1568 8.8L6.51952 2.5Z" fill="currentColor"></path></svg>8<!-- -->%</span></p><p class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-secondary leading-5 mt-1">The Fed&#x27;s unanimous decision to maintain the interest rate on reserve balances at 3.65% signaled continued monetary policy caution ahead of the September meeting, reinforcing expectations of no immediate rate hikes or cuts.</p><div class="flex items-center gap-1.5 mt-3"><a href="https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/files/monetary20260729a1.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" class="flex items-center justify-center rounded-md overflow-hidden bg-white" style="width:28px;height:28px;border:1px solid var(--color-pk-border)" data-state="closed" data-slot="tooltip-trigger"><img src="https://www.google.com/s2/favicons?domain=www.federalreserve.gov&amp;sz=64" alt="Federal Reserve" referrerPolicy="no-referrer" width="18" height="18" loading="lazy" style="object-fit:contain"/></a></div></div></div><div class="flex gap-3 relative !h-0 !overflow-hidden !p-0 !m-0" style="content-visibility:hidden" inert="" aria-hidden="true"><div class="flex flex-col items-center shrink-0"><div class="w-px h-[7px] bg-pk-border"></div><div class="w-3 h-3 rounded-full border-2 border-pk-gray-300 bg-pk-surface shrink-0"></div><div class="w-px flex-1 bg-pk-border"></div></div><div class="flex-1 pb-8"><span class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary">Jul 29 2026</span><p class="text-body-base font-semibold text-pk-content-primary leading-5 mt-1">FOMC holds rates steady but signals possible September hike</p><p class="flex items-center gap-1 text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary mt-0.5"><span>25 bps increase<!-- --> <!-- -->surges to<!-- --> <!-- -->54<!-- -->%</span><span class="inline-flex items-center gap-0.5 font-semibold text-pk-content-accent-green"><svg width="8" height="8" viewBox="0 0 12 12" fill="none" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><path d="M6.51952 2.5C6.28858 2.1 5.71123 2.1 5.48029 2.5L1.84298 8.8C1.61204 9.2 1.90072 9.7 2.3626 9.7L9.63721 9.7C10.0991 9.7 10.3878 9.2 10.1568 8.8L6.51952 2.5Z" fill="currentColor"></path></svg>42<!-- -->%</span></p><p class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-secondary leading-5 mt-1">At the July 29 meeting, the Fed kept rates unchanged but noted inflation remains above target and economic activity is solid, with some dissenters favoring a rate increase. This hawkish tone increased market expectations for a 25 bps hike in September.</p><div class="flex items-center gap-1.5 mt-3"><a href="https://quorumpw.com/insights/august-2026-market-update/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" class="flex items-center justify-center rounded-md overflow-hidden bg-white" style="width:28px;height:28px;border:1px solid var(--color-pk-border)" data-state="closed" data-slot="tooltip-trigger"><img src="https://www.google.com/s2/favicons?domain=quorumpw.com&amp;sz=64" alt="Quorum Private Wealth" referrerPolicy="no-referrer" width="18" height="18" loading="lazy" style="object-fit:contain"/></a></div></div></div><div class="flex gap-3 relative !h-0 !overflow-hidden !p-0 !m-0" style="content-visibility:hidden" inert="" aria-hidden="true"><div class="flex flex-col items-center shrink-0"><div class="w-px h-[7px] bg-pk-border"></div><div class="w-3 h-3 rounded-full border-2 border-pk-gray-300 bg-pk-surface shrink-0"></div><div class="w-px flex-1 bg-pk-border"></div></div><div class="flex-1 pb-8"><span class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary">Jul 29 2026</span><p class="text-body-base font-semibold text-pk-content-primary leading-5 mt-1">Federal Reserve keeps interest rates unchanged amid inflation concerns</p><p class="flex items-center gap-1 text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary mt-0.5"><span>25 bps increase<!-- --> <!-- -->surges to<!-- --> <!-- -->52<!-- -->%</span><span class="inline-flex items-center gap-0.5 font-semibold text-pk-content-accent-green"><svg width="8" height="8" viewBox="0 0 12 12" fill="none" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><path d="M6.51952 2.5C6.28858 2.1 5.71123 2.1 5.48029 2.5L1.84298 8.8C1.61204 9.2 1.90072 9.7 2.3626 9.7L9.63721 9.7C10.0991 9.7 10.3878 9.2 10.1568 8.8L6.51952 2.5Z" fill="currentColor"></path></svg>36<!-- -->%</span></p><p class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-secondary leading-5 mt-1">The Fed left rates unchanged at 3.5%-3.75% in a 9-3 vote despite ongoing inflation above target and energy price spikes due to the Iran war. The dissenters favored a 25 bps hike, reflecting ongoing debate and keeping markets uncertain about the September decision, which increased the probability of a rate hike.</p><div class="flex items-center gap-1.5 mt-3"><a href="https://www.ttnews.com/articles/federal-reserve-july-hold" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" class="flex items-center justify-center rounded-md overflow-hidden bg-white" style="width:28px;height:28px;border:1px solid var(--color-pk-border)" data-state="closed" data-slot="tooltip-trigger"><img src="https://www.google.com/s2/favicons?domain=www.ttnews.com&amp;sz=64" alt="TT News" referrerPolicy="no-referrer" width="18" height="18" loading="lazy" style="object-fit:contain"/></a></div></div></div><div class="flex gap-3 relative !h-0 !overflow-hidden !p-0 !m-0" style="content-visibility:hidden" inert="" aria-hidden="true"><div class="flex flex-col items-center shrink-0"><div class="w-px h-[7px] bg-pk-border"></div><div class="w-3 h-3 rounded-full border-2 border-pk-gray-300 bg-pk-surface shrink-0"></div><div class="w-px flex-1 bg-pk-border"></div></div><div class="flex-1 pb-8"><span class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary">Jul 29 2026</span><p class="text-body-base font-semibold text-pk-content-primary leading-5 mt-1">Federal Reserve issues statement maintaining interest rate paid on reserve balances at 3.65%</p><p class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-secondary leading-5 mt-1">The Federal Reserve confirmed its monetary policy stance by maintaining the interest rate on reserve balances, signaling no immediate change to the federal funds rate ahead of the September meeting. This helped stabilize market expectations for no rate change.</p><div class="flex items-center gap-1.5 mt-3"><a href="https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/files/monetary20260729a1.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" class="flex items-center justify-center rounded-md overflow-hidden bg-white" style="width:28px;height:28px;border:1px solid var(--color-pk-border)" data-state="closed" data-slot="tooltip-trigger"><img src="https://www.google.com/s2/favicons?domain=www.federalreserve.gov&amp;sz=64" alt="Federal Reserve" referrerPolicy="no-referrer" width="18" height="18" loading="lazy" style="object-fit:contain"/></a></div></div></div><div class="flex gap-3 relative !h-0 !overflow-hidden !p-0 !m-0" style="content-visibility:hidden" inert="" aria-hidden="true"><div class="flex flex-col items-center shrink-0"><div class="w-px h-[7px] bg-pk-border"></div><div class="w-3 h-3 rounded-full border-2 border-pk-gray-300 bg-pk-surface shrink-0"></div><div class="w-px flex-1 bg-pk-border"></div></div><div class="flex-1 pb-8"><span class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary">Jul 29 2026</span><p class="text-body-base font-semibold text-pk-content-primary leading-5 mt-1">Fed Chair Warsh emphasizes price stability amid divided FOMC</p><p class="flex items-center gap-1 text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary mt-0.5"><span>No change<!-- --> <!-- -->dips to<!-- --> <!-- -->55<!-- -->%</span><span class="inline-flex items-center gap-0.5 font-semibold text-pk-content-accent-red"><svg width="8" height="8" viewBox="0 0 12 12" fill="none" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><path d="M6.51952 9.5C6.28858 9.9 5.71123 9.9 5.48029 9.5L1.84298 3.2C1.61204 2.8 1.90072 2.3 2.3626 2.3L9.63721 2.3C10.0991 2.3 10.3878 2.8 10.1568 3.2L6.51952 9.5Z" fill="currentColor"></path></svg>1<!-- -->%</span></p><p class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-secondary leading-5 mt-1">Chair Kevin Warsh described the July FOMC meeting as a &#x27;good family fight&#x27; with three dissenters favoring a rate hike. He emphasized the Fed&#x27;s commitment to price stability and avoided forward guidance, contributing to market uncertainty but ultimately supporting a hold on rates.</p><div class="flex items-center gap-1.5 mt-3"><a href="https://www.fhlbboston.com/strategies-insights/july-29-2026-fomc-meeting-analysis/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" class="flex items-center justify-center rounded-md overflow-hidden bg-white" style="width:28px;height:28px;border:1px solid var(--color-pk-border)" data-state="closed" data-slot="tooltip-trigger"><img src="https://www.google.com/s2/favicons?domain=www.fhlbboston.com&amp;sz=64" alt="FHLBank Boston" referrerPolicy="no-referrer" width="18" height="18" loading="lazy" style="object-fit:contain"/></a></div></div></div><div class="flex gap-3 relative !h-0 !overflow-hidden !p-0 !m-0" style="content-visibility:hidden" inert="" aria-hidden="true"><div class="flex flex-col items-center shrink-0"><div class="w-px h-[7px] bg-pk-border"></div><div class="w-3 h-3 rounded-full border-2 border-pk-gray-300 bg-pk-surface shrink-0"></div><div class="w-px flex-1 bg-pk-border"></div></div><div class="flex-1 pb-8"><span class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary">Jul 29 2026</span><p class="text-body-base font-semibold text-pk-content-primary leading-5 mt-1">Federal Reserve Keeps Rates Unchanged at July Meeting Amid Inflation Concerns</p><p class="flex items-center gap-1 text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary mt-0.5"><span>25 bps increase<!-- --> <!-- -->surges to<!-- --> <!-- -->56<!-- -->%</span><span class="inline-flex items-center gap-0.5 font-semibold text-pk-content-accent-green"><svg width="8" height="8" viewBox="0 0 12 12" fill="none" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><path d="M6.51952 2.5C6.28858 2.1 5.71123 2.1 5.48029 2.5L1.84298 8.8C1.61204 9.2 1.90072 9.7 2.3626 9.7L9.63721 9.7C10.0991 9.7 10.3878 9.2 10.1568 8.8L6.51952 2.5Z" fill="currentColor"></path></svg>19<!-- -->%</span></p><p class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-secondary leading-5 mt-1">At the July 28-29 meeting, the FOMC voted 9-3 to hold the federal funds rate steady at 3.50%-3.75%, with some dissenters favoring a hike. The decision reflected ongoing concerns about inflation remaining above target, leading markets to price in a possible rate increase in September, which influenced the rise in the &#x27;25 bps increase&#x27; option price.</p><div class="flex items-center gap-1.5 mt-3"><a href="https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2026/07/29/feds-interest-rate-decision-july-29-2026" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" class="flex items-center justify-center rounded-md overflow-hidden bg-white" style="width:28px;height:28px;border:1px solid var(--color-pk-border)" data-state="closed" data-slot="tooltip-trigger"><img src="https://www.google.com/s2/favicons?domain=www.advisorperspectives.com&amp;sz=64" alt="Advisor Perspectives" referrerPolicy="no-referrer" width="18" height="18" loading="lazy" style="object-fit:contain"/></a></div></div></div><div class="flex gap-3 relative !h-0 !overflow-hidden !p-0 !m-0" style="content-visibility:hidden" inert="" aria-hidden="true"><div class="flex flex-col items-center shrink-0"><div class="w-px h-[7px] bg-pk-border"></div><div class="w-3 h-3 rounded-full border-2 border-pk-gray-300 bg-pk-surface shrink-0"></div><div class="w-px flex-1 bg-pk-border"></div></div><div class="flex-1 pb-8"><span class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary">Jul 29 2026</span><p class="text-body-base font-semibold text-pk-content-primary leading-5 mt-1">Markets react to Fed&#x27;s July hold with hawkish undertones and rate hike expectations</p><p class="flex items-center gap-1 text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary mt-0.5"><span>No change<!-- --> <!-- -->dips to<!-- --> <!-- -->39<!-- -->%</span><span class="inline-flex items-center gap-0.5 font-semibold text-pk-content-accent-red"><svg width="8" height="8" viewBox="0 0 12 12" fill="none" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><path d="M6.51952 9.5C6.28858 9.9 5.71123 9.9 5.48029 9.5L1.84298 3.2C1.61204 2.8 1.90072 2.3 2.3626 2.3L9.63721 2.3C10.0991 2.3 10.3878 2.8 10.1568 3.2L6.51952 9.5Z" fill="currentColor"></path></svg>2<!-- -->%</span></p><p class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-secondary leading-5 mt-1">Following the July 29 decision to hold rates steady, markets reacted to the hawkish tone and dissenting votes by pricing in one to two rate hikes by the end of 2026, with September seen as the most likely timing. Treasury yields rose and the US dollar strengthened, reflecting expectations of a stronger USD if a September hike occurs.</p><div class="flex items-center gap-1.5 mt-3"><a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2026/07/29/fed-meeting-today-live-updates.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" class="flex items-center justify-center rounded-md overflow-hidden bg-white" style="width:28px;height:28px;border:1px solid var(--color-pk-border)" data-state="closed" data-slot="tooltip-trigger"><img src="https://www.google.com/s2/favicons?domain=www.cnbc.com&amp;sz=64" alt="CNBC" referrerPolicy="no-referrer" width="18" height="18" loading="lazy" style="object-fit:contain"/></a></div></div></div><div class="flex gap-3 relative !h-0 !overflow-hidden !p-0 !m-0" style="content-visibility:hidden" inert="" aria-hidden="true"><div class="flex flex-col items-center shrink-0"><div class="w-px h-[7px] bg-pk-border"></div><div class="w-3 h-3 rounded-full border-2 border-pk-gray-300 bg-pk-surface shrink-0"></div><div class="w-px flex-1 bg-pk-border"></div></div><div class="flex-1 pb-8"><span class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary">Jul 29 2026</span><p class="text-body-base font-semibold text-pk-content-primary leading-5 mt-1">FOMC holds federal funds rate steady at 3.50%–3.75% with three dissenters favoring hike</p><p class="flex items-center gap-1 text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary mt-0.5"><span>No change<!-- --> <!-- -->plunges to<!-- --> <!-- -->41<!-- -->%</span><span class="inline-flex items-center gap-0.5 font-semibold text-pk-content-accent-red"><svg width="8" height="8" viewBox="0 0 12 12" fill="none" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><path d="M6.51952 9.5C6.28858 9.9 5.71123 9.9 5.48029 9.5L1.84298 3.2C1.61204 2.8 1.90072 2.3 2.3626 2.3L9.63721 2.3C10.0991 2.3 10.3878 2.8 10.1568 3.2L6.51952 9.5Z" fill="currentColor"></path></svg>18<!-- -->%</span></p><p class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-secondary leading-5 mt-1">The Federal Open Market Committee voted 9–3 to maintain the target range for the federal funds rate, signaling a cautious approach amid ongoing inflation concerns. The dissenters&#x27; preference for a 25 bps increase highlighted internal divisions and kept the possibility of future hikes alive, influencing market pricing toward a no change or modest increase outcome.</p><div class="flex items-center gap-1.5 mt-3"><a href="https://www.financecalendar.com/event/fomc-rate-decision-july-2026/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" class="flex items-center justify-center rounded-md overflow-hidden bg-white" style="width:28px;height:28px;border:1px solid var(--color-pk-border)" data-state="closed" data-slot="tooltip-trigger"><img src="https://www.google.com/s2/favicons?domain=www.financecalendar.com&amp;sz=64" alt="FinanceCalendar" referrerPolicy="no-referrer" width="18" height="18" loading="lazy" style="object-fit:contain"/></a><a href="https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomcpresconf20260729.htm" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" class="flex items-center justify-center rounded-md overflow-hidden bg-white" style="width:28px;height:28px;border:1px solid var(--color-pk-border)" data-state="closed" data-slot="tooltip-trigger"><img src="https://www.google.com/s2/favicons?domain=www.federalreserve.gov&amp;sz=64" alt="Federal Reserve" referrerPolicy="no-referrer" width="18" height="18" loading="lazy" style="object-fit:contain"/></a></div></div></div><div class="flex gap-3 relative !h-0 !overflow-hidden !p-0 !m-0" style="content-visibility:hidden" inert="" aria-hidden="true"><div class="flex flex-col items-center shrink-0"><div class="w-px h-[7px] bg-pk-border"></div><div class="w-3 h-3 rounded-full border-2 border-pk-gray-300 bg-pk-surface shrink-0"></div><div class="w-px flex-1 bg-pk-border"></div></div><div class="flex-1 pb-8"><span class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary">Jul 29 2026</span><p class="text-body-base font-semibold text-pk-content-primary leading-5 mt-1">Three FOMC members dissent, preferring a 25 bps rate hike at July meeting</p><p class="flex items-center gap-1 text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary mt-0.5"><span>No change<!-- --> <!-- -->surges to<!-- --> <!-- -->56<!-- -->%</span><span class="inline-flex items-center gap-0.5 font-semibold text-pk-content-accent-green"><svg width="8" height="8" viewBox="0 0 12 12" fill="none" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><path d="M6.51952 2.5C6.28858 2.1 5.71123 2.1 5.48029 2.5L1.84298 8.8C1.61204 9.2 1.90072 9.7 2.3626 9.7L9.63721 9.7C10.0991 9.7 10.3878 9.2 10.1568 8.8L6.51952 2.5Z" fill="currentColor"></path></svg>16<!-- -->%</span></p><p class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-secondary leading-5 mt-1">At the July 28-29 FOMC meeting, three members voted against maintaining the current rate, advocating for a 25 basis point increase due to elevated inflation. This dissent highlighted internal committee divisions and contributed to market uncertainty about the September decision.</p><div class="flex items-center gap-1.5 mt-3"><a href="https://www.actionforex.com/central-banks/federal-reserve/651177-fed-minutes-of-the-federal-open-market-committee-40/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" class="flex items-center justify-center rounded-md overflow-hidden bg-white" style="width:28px;height:28px;border:1px solid var(--color-pk-border)" data-state="closed" data-slot="tooltip-trigger"><img src="https://www.google.com/s2/favicons?domain=www.actionforex.com&amp;sz=64" alt="ActionForex" referrerPolicy="no-referrer" width="18" height="18" loading="lazy" style="object-fit:contain"/></a></div></div></div><div class="flex gap-3 relative !h-0 !overflow-hidden !p-0 !m-0" style="content-visibility:hidden" inert="" aria-hidden="true"><div class="flex flex-col items-center shrink-0"><div class="w-px h-[7px] bg-pk-border"></div><div class="w-3 h-3 rounded-full border-2 border-pk-gray-300 bg-pk-surface shrink-0"></div><div class="w-px flex-1 bg-pk-border"></div></div><div class="flex-1 pb-8"><span class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary">Jul 29 2026</span><p class="text-body-base font-semibold text-pk-content-primary leading-5 mt-1">Federal Reserve holds rates steady at 3.50%-3.75% with three dissenters favoring hike</p><p class="flex items-center gap-1 text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary mt-0.5"><span>25 bps increase<!-- --> <!-- -->surges to<!-- --> <!-- -->60<!-- -->%</span><span class="inline-flex items-center gap-0.5 font-semibold text-pk-content-accent-green"><svg width="8" height="8" viewBox="0 0 12 12" fill="none" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><path d="M6.51952 2.5C6.28858 2.1 5.71123 2.1 5.48029 2.5L1.84298 8.8C1.61204 9.2 1.90072 9.7 2.3626 9.7L9.63721 9.7C10.0991 9.7 10.3878 9.2 10.1568 8.8L6.51952 2.5Z" fill="currentColor"></path></svg>32<!-- -->%</span></p><p class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-secondary leading-5 mt-1">At the July 29 FOMC meeting, the Fed maintained the federal funds rate target range at 3.50% to 3.75%, but three members dissented, preferring a 25 basis point increase. Chair Kevin Warsh emphasized that the hold was not a pause but part of ongoing policy evaluation, signaling a hawkish stance that increased market expectations for a September rate hike.</p><div class="flex items-center gap-1.5 mt-3"><a href="https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20260729a.htm" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" class="flex items-center justify-center rounded-md overflow-hidden bg-white" style="width:28px;height:28px;border:1px solid var(--color-pk-border)" data-state="closed" data-slot="tooltip-trigger"><img src="https://www.google.com/s2/favicons?domain=www.federalreserve.gov&amp;sz=64" alt="Federal Reserve Board" referrerPolicy="no-referrer" width="18" height="18" loading="lazy" style="object-fit:contain"/></a><a href="https://blog.orbitremit.com/fed-holds-rates-federal-reserve-july-2026/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" class="flex items-center justify-center rounded-md overflow-hidden bg-white" style="width:28px;height:28px;border:1px solid var(--color-pk-border)" data-state="closed" data-slot="tooltip-trigger"><img src="https://www.google.com/s2/favicons?domain=blog.orbitremit.com&amp;sz=64" alt="OrbitRemit" referrerPolicy="no-referrer" width="18" height="18" loading="lazy" style="object-fit:contain"/></a></div></div></div><div class="flex gap-3 relative !h-0 !overflow-hidden !p-0 !m-0" style="content-visibility:hidden" inert="" aria-hidden="true"><div class="flex flex-col items-center shrink-0"><div class="w-px h-[7px] bg-pk-border"></div><div class="w-3 h-3 rounded-full border-2 border-pk-gray-300 bg-pk-surface shrink-0"></div><div class="w-px flex-1 bg-pk-border"></div></div><div class="flex-1 pb-8"><span class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary">Jul 29 2026</span><p class="text-body-base font-semibold text-pk-content-primary leading-5 mt-1">Fed Chair Warsh rejects pause, signals possible rate hikes in September</p><p class="flex items-center gap-1 text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary mt-0.5"><span>No change<!-- --> <!-- -->surges to<!-- --> <!-- -->67<!-- -->%</span><span class="inline-flex items-center gap-0.5 font-semibold text-pk-content-accent-green"><svg width="8" height="8" viewBox="0 0 12 12" fill="none" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><path d="M6.51952 2.5C6.28858 2.1 5.71123 2.1 5.48029 2.5L1.84298 8.8C1.61204 9.2 1.90072 9.7 2.3626 9.7L9.63721 9.7C10.0991 9.7 10.3878 9.2 10.1568 8.8L6.51952 2.5Z" fill="currentColor"></path></svg>28<!-- -->%</span></p><p class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-secondary leading-5 mt-1">Chair Kevin Warsh explicitly rejected the idea of a pause in rate changes, describing the July hold as the beginning of a story. His hawkish tone led markets to price in one to two rate hikes by the end of 2026, with September seen as the most likely timing for the first increase.</p><div class="flex items-center gap-1.5 mt-3"><a href="https://blog.orbitremit.com/fed-holds-rates-federal-reserve-july-2026/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" class="flex items-center justify-center rounded-md overflow-hidden bg-white" style="width:28px;height:28px;border:1px solid var(--color-pk-border)" data-state="closed" data-slot="tooltip-trigger"><img src="https://www.google.com/s2/favicons?domain=blog.orbitremit.com&amp;sz=64" alt="CNBC" referrerPolicy="no-referrer" width="18" height="18" loading="lazy" style="object-fit:contain"/></a></div></div></div><div class="flex gap-3 relative !h-0 !overflow-hidden !p-0 !m-0" style="content-visibility:hidden" inert="" aria-hidden="true"><div class="flex flex-col items-center shrink-0"><div class="w-px h-[7px] bg-pk-border"></div><div class="w-3 h-3 rounded-full border-2 border-pk-gray-300 bg-pk-surface shrink-0"></div><div class="w-px flex-1 bg-pk-border"></div></div><div class="flex-1 pb-8"><span class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary">Jul 29 2026</span><p class="text-body-base font-semibold text-pk-content-primary leading-5 mt-1">Fed holds rates steady with three dissenters favoring a hike</p><p class="flex items-center gap-1 text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary mt-0.5"><span>No change<!-- --> <!-- -->surges to<!-- --> <!-- -->68<!-- -->%</span><span class="inline-flex items-center gap-0.5 font-semibold text-pk-content-accent-green"><svg width="8" height="8" viewBox="0 0 12 12" fill="none" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><path d="M6.51952 2.5C6.28858 2.1 5.71123 2.1 5.48029 2.5L1.84298 8.8C1.61204 9.2 1.90072 9.7 2.3626 9.7L9.63721 9.7C10.0991 9.7 10.3878 9.2 10.1568 8.8L6.51952 2.5Z" fill="currentColor"></path></svg>22<!-- -->%</span></p><p class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-secondary leading-5 mt-1">On July 29, 2026, the Federal Reserve again held the federal funds rate at 3.50%–3.75% in a 9-3 vote, with three members dissenting for a 25 basis point increase. Chair Warsh rejected the notion of a pause, framing the decision as a rigorous review and signaling that rate hikes remain possible, which led markets to price in a likely September hike.</p><div class="flex items-center gap-1.5 mt-3"><a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2026/07/29/fed-meeting-today-live-updates.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" class="flex items-center justify-center rounded-md overflow-hidden bg-white" style="width:28px;height:28px;border:1px solid var(--color-pk-border)" data-state="closed" data-slot="tooltip-trigger"><img src="https://www.google.com/s2/favicons?domain=www.cnbc.com&amp;sz=64" alt="CNBC" referrerPolicy="no-referrer" width="18" height="18" loading="lazy" style="object-fit:contain"/></a><a href="https://blog.orbitremit.com/fed-holds-rates-federal-reserve-july-2026/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" class="flex items-center justify-center rounded-md overflow-hidden bg-white" style="width:28px;height:28px;border:1px solid var(--color-pk-border)" data-state="closed" data-slot="tooltip-trigger"><img src="https://www.google.com/s2/favicons?domain=blog.orbitremit.com&amp;sz=64" alt="OrbitRemit" referrerPolicy="no-referrer" width="18" height="18" loading="lazy" style="object-fit:contain"/></a></div></div></div><div class="flex gap-3 relative !h-0 !overflow-hidden !p-0 !m-0" style="content-visibility:hidden" inert="" aria-hidden="true"><div class="flex flex-col items-center shrink-0"><div class="w-px h-[7px] bg-pk-border"></div><div class="w-3 h-3 rounded-full border-2 border-pk-gray-300 bg-pk-surface shrink-0"></div><div class="w-px flex-1 bg-pk-border"></div></div><div class="flex-1 pb-8"><span class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary">Jul 29 2026</span><p class="text-body-base font-semibold text-pk-content-primary leading-5 mt-1">Federal Reserve Holds Rates at 3.50%-3.75% with Three Dissenters Favoring Hike</p><p class="flex items-center gap-1 text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary mt-0.5"><span>25 bps increase<!-- --> <!-- -->jumps to<!-- --> <!-- -->40<!-- -->%</span><span class="inline-flex items-center gap-0.5 font-semibold text-pk-content-accent-green"><svg width="8" height="8" viewBox="0 0 12 12" fill="none" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><path d="M6.51952 2.5C6.28858 2.1 5.71123 2.1 5.48029 2.5L1.84298 8.8C1.61204 9.2 1.90072 9.7 2.3626 9.7L9.63721 9.7C10.0991 9.7 10.3878 9.2 10.1568 8.8L6.51952 2.5Z" fill="currentColor"></path></svg>14<!-- -->%</span></p><p class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-secondary leading-5 mt-1">At the July 29 meeting, the FOMC voted 9-3 to keep rates steady at 3.50%-3.75%, but three regional Fed presidents dissented, preferring a 25 basis point increase. Chair Kevin Warsh emphasized the decision was a &#x27;rigorous review&#x27; rather than a pause, signaling that a September hike remained on the table, which shifted market expectations toward a likely increase.</p><div class="flex items-center gap-1.5 mt-3"><a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2026/07/29/fed-meeting-today-live-updates.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" class="flex items-center justify-center rounded-md overflow-hidden bg-white" style="width:28px;height:28px;border:1px solid var(--color-pk-border)" data-state="closed" data-slot="tooltip-trigger"><img src="https://www.google.com/s2/favicons?domain=www.cnbc.com&amp;sz=64" alt="CNBC" referrerPolicy="no-referrer" width="18" height="18" loading="lazy" style="object-fit:contain"/></a><a href="https://blog.orbitremit.com/fed-holds-rates-federal-reserve-july-2026/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" class="flex items-center justify-center rounded-md overflow-hidden bg-white" style="width:28px;height:28px;border:1px solid var(--color-pk-border)" data-state="closed" data-slot="tooltip-trigger"><img src="https://www.google.com/s2/favicons?domain=blog.orbitremit.com&amp;sz=64" alt="OrbitRemit" referrerPolicy="no-referrer" width="18" height="18" loading="lazy" style="object-fit:contain"/></a></div></div></div><div class="flex gap-3 relative !h-0 !overflow-hidden !p-0 !m-0" style="content-visibility:hidden" inert="" aria-hidden="true"><div class="flex flex-col items-center shrink-0"><div class="w-px h-[7px] bg-pk-border"></div><div class="w-3 h-3 rounded-full border-2 border-pk-gray-300 bg-pk-surface shrink-0"></div><div class="w-px flex-1 bg-pk-border"></div></div><div class="flex-1 pb-8"><span class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary">Jul 29 2026</span><p class="text-body-base font-semibold text-pk-content-primary leading-5 mt-1">FOMC July meeting ends with no rate change but notable dissent</p><p class="flex items-center gap-1 text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary mt-0.5"><span>No change<!-- --> <!-- -->drops to<!-- --> <!-- -->64<!-- -->%</span><span class="inline-flex items-center gap-0.5 font-semibold text-pk-content-accent-red"><svg width="8" height="8" viewBox="0 0 12 12" fill="none" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><path d="M6.51952 9.5C6.28858 9.9 5.71123 9.9 5.48029 9.5L1.84298 3.2C1.61204 2.8 1.90072 2.3 2.3626 2.3L9.63721 2.3C10.0991 2.3 10.3878 2.8 10.1568 3.2L6.51952 9.5Z" fill="currentColor"></path></svg>10<!-- -->%</span></p><p class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-secondary leading-5 mt-1">The July 28-29 FOMC meeting concluded with the Fed holding rates steady at 3.5%–3.75%, but with a 9-3 vote showing dissenters favoring a 25 bps hike. This split highlighted internal Fed divisions and contributed to market uncertainty, reflected in fluctuating probabilities for rate changes.</p><div class="flex items-center gap-1.5 mt-3"><a href="https://emergencyfundcalculator.com/fed-interest-rate-decision-august-2026/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" class="flex items-center justify-center rounded-md overflow-hidden bg-white" style="width:28px;height:28px;border:1px solid var(--color-pk-border)" data-state="closed" data-slot="tooltip-trigger"><img src="https://www.google.com/s2/favicons?domain=emergencyfundcalculator.com&amp;sz=64" alt="Emergency Fund Calculator" referrerPolicy="no-referrer" width="18" height="18" loading="lazy" style="object-fit:contain"/></a></div></div></div><div class="flex gap-3 relative !h-0 !overflow-hidden !p-0 !m-0" style="content-visibility:hidden" inert="" aria-hidden="true"><div class="flex flex-col items-center shrink-0"><div class="w-px h-[7px] bg-pk-border"></div><div class="w-3 h-3 rounded-full border-2 border-pk-gray-300 bg-pk-surface shrink-0"></div><div class="w-px flex-1 bg-pk-border"></div></div><div class="flex-1 pb-8"><span class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary">Jul 29 2026</span><p class="text-body-base font-semibold text-pk-content-primary leading-5 mt-1">Fed holds rates steady in July with three dissenters favoring a hike</p><p class="flex items-center gap-1 text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary mt-0.5"><span>No change<!-- --> <!-- -->surges to<!-- --> <!-- -->63<!-- -->%</span><span class="inline-flex items-center gap-0.5 font-semibold text-pk-content-accent-green"><svg width="8" height="8" viewBox="0 0 12 12" fill="none" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><path d="M6.51952 2.5C6.28858 2.1 5.71123 2.1 5.48029 2.5L1.84298 8.8C1.61204 9.2 1.90072 9.7 2.3626 9.7L9.63721 9.7C10.0991 9.7 10.3878 9.2 10.1568 8.8L6.51952 2.5Z" fill="currentColor"></path></svg>23<!-- -->%</span></p><p class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-secondary leading-5 mt-1">On July 29, 2026, the Federal Reserve voted 9-3 to keep rates at 3.50%-3.75%, with three members dissenting in favor of a 25 basis point increase. Chair Kevin Warsh rejected the notion of a pause, framing the decision as a review period, and markets immediately priced in a likely September hike, reflecting ongoing inflation concerns and energy price pressures.</p><div class="flex items-center gap-1.5 mt-3"><a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2026/07/29/fed-meeting-today-live-updates.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" class="flex items-center justify-center rounded-md overflow-hidden bg-white" style="width:28px;height:28px;border:1px solid var(--color-pk-border)" data-state="closed" data-slot="tooltip-trigger"><img src="https://www.google.com/s2/favicons?domain=www.cnbc.com&amp;sz=64" alt="CNBC" referrerPolicy="no-referrer" width="18" height="18" loading="lazy" style="object-fit:contain"/></a></div></div></div><div class="flex gap-3 relative !h-0 !overflow-hidden !p-0 !m-0" style="content-visibility:hidden" inert="" aria-hidden="true"><div class="flex flex-col items-center shrink-0"><div class="w-px h-[7px] bg-pk-border"></div><div class="w-3 h-3 rounded-full border-2 border-pk-gray-300 bg-pk-surface shrink-0"></div><div class="w-px flex-1 bg-pk-border"></div></div><div class="flex-1 pb-8"><span class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary">Jul 29 2026</span><p class="text-body-base font-semibold text-pk-content-primary leading-5 mt-1">Market Reacts Sharply to Fed&#x27;s Decision to Hold Rates Steady</p><p class="flex items-center gap-1 text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary mt-0.5"><span>25 bps increase<!-- --> <!-- -->jumps to<!-- --> <!-- -->50<!-- -->%</span><span class="inline-flex items-center gap-0.5 font-semibold text-pk-content-accent-green"><svg width="8" height="8" viewBox="0 0 12 12" fill="none" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><path d="M6.51952 2.5C6.28858 2.1 5.71123 2.1 5.48029 2.5L1.84298 8.8C1.61204 9.2 1.90072 9.7 2.3626 9.7L9.63721 9.7C10.0991 9.7 10.3878 9.2 10.1568 8.8L6.51952 2.5Z" fill="currentColor"></path></svg>12<!-- -->%</span></p><p class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-secondary leading-5 mt-1">Following the Fed&#x27;s decision, Treasury yields spiked and stock markets fell sharply, reflecting investor uncertainty and increased expectations for future rate hikes. This market reaction contributed to the rising probability of a 25 bps increase in the September meeting.</p><div class="flex items-center gap-1.5 mt-3"><a href="https://finance.yahoo.com/economy/live/fed-meeting-live-federal-reserve-july-interest-rate-decision-141813444.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" class="flex items-center justify-center rounded-md overflow-hidden bg-white" style="width:28px;height:28px;border:1px solid var(--color-pk-border)" data-state="closed" data-slot="tooltip-trigger"><img src="https://www.google.com/s2/favicons?domain=finance.yahoo.com&amp;sz=64" alt="Yahoo Finance" referrerPolicy="no-referrer" width="18" height="18" loading="lazy" style="object-fit:contain"/></a></div></div></div><div class="flex gap-3 relative !h-0 !overflow-hidden !p-0 !m-0" style="content-visibility:hidden" inert="" aria-hidden="true"><div class="flex flex-col items-center shrink-0"><div class="w-px h-[7px] bg-pk-border"></div><div class="w-3 h-3 rounded-full border-2 border-pk-gray-300 bg-pk-surface shrink-0"></div><div class="w-px flex-1 bg-pk-border"></div></div><div class="flex-1 pb-8"><span class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary">Jul 29 2026</span><p class="text-body-base font-semibold text-pk-content-primary leading-5 mt-1">Federal Reserve Holds Rates at 3.50%–3.75% in July Meeting Amid Inflation Concerns</p><p class="flex items-center gap-1 text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary mt-0.5"><span>No change<!-- --> <!-- -->jumps to<!-- --> <!-- -->61<!-- -->%</span><span class="inline-flex items-center gap-0.5 font-semibold text-pk-content-accent-green"><svg width="8" height="8" viewBox="0 0 12 12" fill="none" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><path d="M6.51952 2.5C6.28858 2.1 5.71123 2.1 5.48029 2.5L1.84298 8.8C1.61204 9.2 1.90072 9.7 2.3626 9.7L9.63721 9.7C10.0991 9.7 10.3878 9.2 10.1568 8.8L6.51952 2.5Z" fill="currentColor"></path></svg>5<!-- -->%</span></p><p class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-secondary leading-5 mt-1">The Fed maintained the federal funds rate at 3.50%–3.75% during the July 28-29 meeting, with some dissenting votes favoring a quarter-point increase. Inflation remained elevated, and the Fed signaled a data-dependent approach, causing market probabilities for a 25 bps increase to rise significantly.</p><div class="flex items-center gap-1.5 mt-3"><a href="https://www.financecalendar.com/fomc-meetings/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" class="flex items-center justify-center rounded-md overflow-hidden bg-white" style="width:28px;height:28px;border:1px solid var(--color-pk-border)" data-state="closed" data-slot="tooltip-trigger"><img src="https://www.google.com/s2/favicons?domain=www.financecalendar.com&amp;sz=64" alt="Finance Calendar" referrerPolicy="no-referrer" width="18" height="18" loading="lazy" style="object-fit:contain"/></a></div></div></div><div class="flex gap-3 relative !h-0 !overflow-hidden !p-0 !m-0" style="content-visibility:hidden" inert="" aria-hidden="true"><div class="flex flex-col items-center shrink-0"><div class="w-px h-[7px] bg-pk-border"></div><div class="w-3 h-3 rounded-full border-2 border-pk-gray-300 bg-pk-surface shrink-0"></div><div class="w-px flex-1 bg-pk-border"></div></div><div class="flex-1 pb-8"><span class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary">Jul 29 2026</span><p class="text-body-base font-semibold text-pk-content-primary leading-5 mt-1">Fed Chair Kevin Warsh Commits to Press Conferences Amid Rate Decision</p><p class="flex items-center gap-1 text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary mt-0.5"><span>No change<!-- --> <!-- -->jumps to<!-- --> <!-- -->63<!-- -->%</span><span class="inline-flex items-center gap-0.5 font-semibold text-pk-content-accent-green"><svg width="8" height="8" viewBox="0 0 12 12" fill="none" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><path d="M6.51952 2.5C6.28858 2.1 5.71123 2.1 5.48029 2.5L1.84298 8.8C1.61204 9.2 1.90072 9.7 2.3626 9.7L9.63721 9.7C10.0991 9.7 10.3878 9.2 10.1568 8.8L6.51952 2.5Z" fill="currentColor"></path></svg>7<!-- -->%</span></p><p class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-secondary leading-5 mt-1">Following the July 29 meeting, Fed Chair Kevin Warsh committed to holding press conferences for the remainder of 2026, signaling transparency and ongoing communication about monetary policy. This helped markets interpret the Fed&#x27;s cautious stance and hawkish outlook, affecting expectations for future rate moves.</p><div class="flex items-center gap-1.5 mt-3"><a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2026/07/29/fed-meeting-today-live-updates.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" class="flex items-center justify-center rounded-md overflow-hidden bg-white" style="width:28px;height:28px;border:1px solid var(--color-pk-border)" data-state="closed" data-slot="tooltip-trigger"><img src="https://www.google.com/s2/favicons?domain=www.cnbc.com&amp;sz=64" alt="CNBC" referrerPolicy="no-referrer" width="18" height="18" loading="lazy" style="object-fit:contain"/></a></div></div></div><div class="flex gap-3 relative !h-0 !overflow-hidden !p-0 !m-0" style="content-visibility:hidden" inert="" aria-hidden="true"><div class="flex flex-col items-center shrink-0"><div class="w-px h-[7px] bg-pk-border"></div><div class="w-3 h-3 rounded-full border-2 border-pk-gray-300 bg-pk-surface shrink-0"></div><div class="w-px flex-1 bg-pk-border"></div></div><div class="flex-1 pb-8"><span class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary">Jul 29 2026</span><p class="text-body-base font-semibold text-pk-content-primary leading-5 mt-1">FOMC holds rates steady at July meeting with 9-3 vote</p><p class="flex items-center gap-1 text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary mt-0.5"><span>No change<!-- --> <!-- -->jumps to<!-- --> <!-- -->55<!-- -->%</span><span class="inline-flex items-center gap-0.5 font-semibold text-pk-content-accent-green"><svg width="8" height="8" viewBox="0 0 12 12" fill="none" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><path d="M6.51952 2.5C6.28858 2.1 5.71123 2.1 5.48029 2.5L1.84298 8.8C1.61204 9.2 1.90072 9.7 2.3626 9.7L9.63721 9.7C10.0991 9.7 10.3878 9.2 10.1568 8.8L6.51952 2.5Z" fill="currentColor"></path></svg>11<!-- -->%</span></p><p class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-secondary leading-5 mt-1">The Federal Reserve maintained the federal funds rate at 3.5% to 3.75% during the July 28-29 meeting. The decision was supported by a majority but faced dissent from three members advocating a 25 bps increase due to ongoing inflation concerns, signaling some internal division.</p><div class="flex items-center gap-1.5 mt-3"><a href="https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomcminutes20260729.htm" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" class="flex items-center justify-center rounded-md overflow-hidden bg-white" style="width:28px;height:28px;border:1px solid var(--color-pk-border)" data-state="closed" data-slot="tooltip-trigger"><img src="https://www.google.com/s2/favicons?domain=www.federalreserve.gov&amp;sz=64" alt="federalreserve.gov" referrerPolicy="no-referrer" width="18" height="18" loading="lazy" style="object-fit:contain"/></a></div></div></div><div class="flex gap-3 relative !h-0 !overflow-hidden !p-0 !m-0" style="content-visibility:hidden" inert="" aria-hidden="true"><div class="flex flex-col items-center shrink-0"><div class="w-px h-[7px] bg-pk-border"></div><div class="w-3 h-3 rounded-full border-2 border-pk-gray-300 bg-pk-surface shrink-0"></div><div class="w-px flex-1 bg-pk-border"></div></div><div class="flex-1 pb-8"><span class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary">Jul 29 2026</span><p class="text-body-base font-semibold text-pk-content-primary leading-5 mt-1">Fed Chair Warsh signals ongoing &#x27;family fight&#x27; over rate policy amid inflation and geopolitical risks</p><p class="flex items-center gap-1 text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary mt-0.5"><span>25 bps increase<!-- --> <!-- -->surges to<!-- --> <!-- -->56<!-- -->%</span><span class="inline-flex items-center gap-0.5 font-semibold text-pk-content-accent-green"><svg width="8" height="8" viewBox="0 0 12 12" fill="none" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><path d="M6.51952 2.5C6.28858 2.1 5.71123 2.1 5.48029 2.5L1.84298 8.8C1.61204 9.2 1.90072 9.7 2.3626 9.7L9.63721 9.7C10.0991 9.7 10.3878 9.2 10.1568 8.8L6.51952 2.5Z" fill="currentColor"></path></svg>16<!-- -->%</span></p><p class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-secondary leading-5 mt-1">Chair Kevin Warsh described internal Fed debates as a &#x27;family fight&#x27; reflecting differing views on inflation risks and rate policy. The Fed scrapped forward guidance, increasing uncertainty about future moves. Elevated inflation driven by energy prices and Middle East tensions contributed to market expectations of a possible rate hike in September.</p><div class="flex items-center gap-1.5 mt-3"><a href="https://thegistnotes.com/federal-reserve-faces-crucial-decision-on-interest-rates-amid-inflation-concerns/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" class="flex items-center justify-center rounded-md overflow-hidden bg-white" style="width:28px;height:28px;border:1px solid var(--color-pk-border)" data-state="closed" data-slot="tooltip-trigger"><img src="https://www.google.com/s2/favicons?domain=thegistnotes.com&amp;sz=64" alt="The Gist Notes" referrerPolicy="no-referrer" width="18" height="18" loading="lazy" style="object-fit:contain"/></a></div></div></div><div class="flex gap-3 relative !h-0 !overflow-hidden !p-0 !m-0" style="content-visibility:hidden" inert="" aria-hidden="true"><div class="flex flex-col items-center shrink-0"><div class="w-px h-[7px] bg-pk-border"></div><div class="w-3 h-3 rounded-full border-2 border-pk-gray-300 bg-pk-surface shrink-0"></div><div class="w-px flex-1 bg-pk-border"></div></div><div class="flex-1 pb-8"><span class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary">Jul 29 2026</span><p class="text-body-base font-semibold text-pk-content-primary leading-5 mt-1">Fed Chair Kevin Warsh&#x27;s press conference emphasizes inflation control and cautious outlook</p><p class="flex items-center gap-1 text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary mt-0.5"><span>No change<!-- --> <!-- -->dips to<!-- --> <!-- -->50<!-- -->%</span><span class="inline-flex items-center gap-0.5 font-semibold text-pk-content-accent-red"><svg width="8" height="8" viewBox="0 0 12 12" fill="none" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><path d="M6.51952 9.5C6.28858 9.9 5.71123 9.9 5.48029 9.5L1.84298 3.2C1.61204 2.8 1.90072 2.3 2.3626 2.3L9.63721 2.3C10.0991 2.3 10.3878 2.8 10.1568 3.2L6.51952 9.5Z" fill="currentColor"></path></svg>3<!-- -->%</span></p><p class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-secondary leading-5 mt-1">Following the July 29 FOMC meeting, Chair Kevin Warsh emphasized the Fed&#x27;s commitment to controlling inflation and indicated a cautious, data-dependent approach. His remarks contributed to market uncertainty but kept the door open for a September hike.</p><div class="flex items-center gap-1.5 mt-3"><a href="https://www.nytimes.com/live/2026/07/29/business/fed-meeting-rates-kevin-warsh" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" class="flex items-center justify-center rounded-md overflow-hidden bg-white" style="width:28px;height:28px;border:1px solid var(--color-pk-border)" data-state="closed" data-slot="tooltip-trigger"><img src="https://www.google.com/s2/favicons?domain=www.nytimes.com&amp;sz=64" alt="The New York Times" referrerPolicy="no-referrer" width="18" height="18" loading="lazy" style="object-fit:contain"/></a></div></div></div><div class="flex gap-3 relative !h-0 !overflow-hidden !p-0 !m-0" style="content-visibility:hidden" inert="" aria-hidden="true"><div class="flex flex-col items-center shrink-0"><div class="w-px h-[7px] bg-pk-border"></div><div class="w-3 h-3 rounded-full border-2 border-pk-gray-300 bg-pk-surface shrink-0"></div><div class="w-px flex-1 bg-pk-border"></div></div><div class="flex-1 pb-8"><span class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary">Jul 29 2026</span><p class="text-body-base font-semibold text-pk-content-primary leading-5 mt-1">Fed holds rates at 3.50%-3.75% with 9-3 vote, dissenters favor hike</p><p class="flex items-center gap-1 text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary mt-0.5"><span>25 bps increase<!-- --> <!-- -->rises to<!-- --> <!-- -->27<!-- -->%</span><span class="inline-flex items-center gap-0.5 font-semibold text-pk-content-accent-green"><svg width="8" height="8" viewBox="0 0 12 12" fill="none" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><path d="M6.51952 2.5C6.28858 2.1 5.71123 2.1 5.48029 2.5L1.84298 8.8C1.61204 9.2 1.90072 9.7 2.3626 9.7L9.63721 9.7C10.0991 9.7 10.3878 9.2 10.1568 8.8L6.51952 2.5Z" fill="currentColor"></path></svg>4<!-- -->%</span></p><p class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-secondary leading-5 mt-1">The July FOMC meeting ended with the Fed holding rates steady, but three regional Fed presidents dissented, favoring a rate hike. This unusual split highlighted uncertainty and contributed to increased market expectations for a possible 25 bps increase in September.</p><div class="flex items-center gap-1.5 mt-3"><a href="https://emergencyfundcalculator.com/fed-interest-rate-decision-august-2026/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" class="flex items-center justify-center rounded-md overflow-hidden bg-white" style="width:28px;height:28px;border:1px solid var(--color-pk-border)" data-state="closed" data-slot="tooltip-trigger"><img src="https://www.google.com/s2/favicons?domain=emergencyfundcalculator.com&amp;sz=64" alt="Emergency Fund Calculator" referrerPolicy="no-referrer" width="18" height="18" loading="lazy" style="object-fit:contain"/></a></div></div></div><div class="flex gap-3 relative !h-0 !overflow-hidden !p-0 !m-0" style="content-visibility:hidden" inert="" aria-hidden="true"><div class="flex flex-col items-center shrink-0"><div class="w-px h-[7px] bg-pk-border"></div><div class="w-3 h-3 rounded-full border-2 border-pk-gray-300 bg-pk-surface shrink-0"></div><div class="w-px flex-1 bg-pk-border"></div></div><div class="flex-1 pb-8"><span class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary">Jul 29 2026</span><p class="text-body-base font-semibold text-pk-content-primary leading-5 mt-1">New Fed Chair Kevin Warsh signals vigilance on inflation, holds rates steady</p><p class="flex items-center gap-1 text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary mt-0.5"><span>No change<!-- --> <!-- -->surges to<!-- --> <!-- -->63<!-- -->%</span><span class="inline-flex items-center gap-0.5 font-semibold text-pk-content-accent-green"><svg width="8" height="8" viewBox="0 0 12 12" fill="none" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><path d="M6.51952 2.5C6.28858 2.1 5.71123 2.1 5.48029 2.5L1.84298 8.8C1.61204 9.2 1.90072 9.7 2.3626 9.7L9.63721 9.7C10.0991 9.7 10.3878 9.2 10.1568 8.8L6.51952 2.5Z" fill="currentColor"></path></svg>22<!-- -->%</span></p><p class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-secondary leading-5 mt-1">At the July FOMC meeting, new Chair Kevin Warsh confirmed the committee&#x27;s decision to keep rates unchanged at 3.50%-3.75%, emphasizing the Fed&#x27;s readiness to act if inflation pressures persist. The meeting highlighted internal divisions with some members favoring hikes, but the overall stance was a cautious pause, influencing market pricing toward no change or a modest hike.</p><div class="flex items-center gap-1.5 mt-3"><a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2026/07/29/fed-meeting-today-live-updates.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" class="flex items-center justify-center rounded-md overflow-hidden bg-white" style="width:28px;height:28px;border:1px solid var(--color-pk-border)" data-state="closed" data-slot="tooltip-trigger"><img src="https://www.google.com/s2/favicons?domain=www.cnbc.com&amp;sz=64" alt="CNBC" referrerPolicy="no-referrer" width="18" height="18" loading="lazy" style="object-fit:contain"/></a></div></div></div><div class="flex gap-3 relative !h-0 !overflow-hidden !p-0 !m-0" style="content-visibility:hidden" inert="" aria-hidden="true"><div class="flex flex-col items-center shrink-0"><div class="w-px h-[7px] bg-pk-border"></div><div class="w-3 h-3 rounded-full border-2 border-pk-gray-300 bg-pk-surface shrink-0"></div><div class="w-px flex-1 bg-pk-border"></div></div><div class="flex-1 pb-8"><span class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary">Jul 29 2026</span><p class="text-body-base font-semibold text-pk-content-primary leading-5 mt-1">Federal Reserve keeps rates unchanged amid inflation concerns and internal dissent</p><p class="flex items-center gap-1 text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary mt-0.5"><span>No change<!-- --> <!-- -->surges to<!-- --> <!-- -->54<!-- -->%</span><span class="inline-flex items-center gap-0.5 font-semibold text-pk-content-accent-green"><svg width="8" height="8" viewBox="0 0 12 12" fill="none" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><path d="M6.51952 2.5C6.28858 2.1 5.71123 2.1 5.48029 2.5L1.84298 8.8C1.61204 9.2 1.90072 9.7 2.3626 9.7L9.63721 9.7C10.0991 9.7 10.3878 9.2 10.1568 8.8L6.51952 2.5Z" fill="currentColor"></path></svg>15<!-- -->%</span></p><p class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-secondary leading-5 mt-1">At the July FOMC meeting, the Fed again held rates steady at 3.50%–3.75%, despite three dissenting votes favoring a 25 bps hike. Inflation remained elevated due to energy price shocks from the U.S.-Iran conflict, maintaining market uncertainty but leaning toward no change or a modest increase.</p><div class="flex items-center gap-1.5 mt-3"><a href="https://www.npr.org/2026/07/29/nx-s1-5910558/federal-reserve-interest-rates-inflation" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" class="flex items-center justify-center rounded-md overflow-hidden bg-white" style="width:28px;height:28px;border:1px solid var(--color-pk-border)" data-state="closed" data-slot="tooltip-trigger"><img src="https://www.google.com/s2/favicons?domain=www.npr.org&amp;sz=64" alt="NPR" referrerPolicy="no-referrer" width="18" height="18" loading="lazy" style="object-fit:contain"/></a><a href="https://thegistnotes.com/federal-reserve-faces-crucial-decision-on-interest-rates-amid-inflation-concerns/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" class="flex items-center justify-center rounded-md overflow-hidden bg-white" style="width:28px;height:28px;border:1px solid var(--color-pk-border)" data-state="closed" data-slot="tooltip-trigger"><img src="https://www.google.com/s2/favicons?domain=thegistnotes.com&amp;sz=64" alt="The Gist Notes" referrerPolicy="no-referrer" width="18" height="18" loading="lazy" style="object-fit:contain"/></a></div></div></div><div class="flex gap-3 relative !h-0 !overflow-hidden !p-0 !m-0" style="content-visibility:hidden" inert="" aria-hidden="true"><div class="flex flex-col items-center shrink-0"><div class="w-px h-[7px] bg-pk-border"></div><div class="w-3 h-3 rounded-full border-2 border-pk-gray-300 bg-pk-surface shrink-0"></div><div class="w-px flex-1 bg-pk-border"></div></div><div class="flex-1 pb-8"><span class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary">Jul 29 2026</span><p class="text-body-base font-semibold text-pk-content-primary leading-5 mt-1">Fed Chair Warsh Signals Possible Rate Hike in September After July Hold</p><p class="flex items-center gap-1 text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary mt-0.5"><span>25 bps increase<!-- --> <!-- -->jumps to<!-- --> <!-- -->33<!-- -->%</span><span class="inline-flex items-center gap-0.5 font-semibold text-pk-content-accent-green"><svg width="8" height="8" viewBox="0 0 12 12" fill="none" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><path d="M6.51952 2.5C6.28858 2.1 5.71123 2.1 5.48029 2.5L1.84298 8.8C1.61204 9.2 1.90072 9.7 2.3626 9.7L9.63721 9.7C10.0991 9.7 10.3878 9.2 10.1568 8.8L6.51952 2.5Z" fill="currentColor"></path></svg>5<!-- -->%</span></p><p class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-secondary leading-5 mt-1">Following the July meeting, Chair Warsh explicitly rejected the idea of a pause and indicated that the hold was just the beginning of the story, with markets pricing in one to two rate hikes by the end of 2026, most likely starting in September. This hawkish stance pushed market probabilities toward a 25 bps increase in the near term.</p><div class="flex items-center gap-1.5 mt-3"><a href="https://blog.orbitremit.com/fed-holds-rates-federal-reserve-july-2026/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" class="flex items-center justify-center rounded-md overflow-hidden bg-white" style="width:28px;height:28px;border:1px solid var(--color-pk-border)" data-state="closed" data-slot="tooltip-trigger"><img src="https://www.google.com/s2/favicons?domain=blog.orbitremit.com&amp;sz=64" alt="OrbitRemit" referrerPolicy="no-referrer" width="18" height="18" loading="lazy" style="object-fit:contain"/></a><a href="https://www.usbank.com/investing/financial-perspectives/market-news/federal-reserve-interest-rate.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" class="flex items-center justify-center rounded-md overflow-hidden bg-white" style="width:28px;height:28px;border:1px solid var(--color-pk-border)" data-state="closed" data-slot="tooltip-trigger"><img src="https://www.google.com/s2/favicons?domain=www.usbank.com&amp;sz=64" alt="usbank.com" referrerPolicy="no-referrer" width="18" height="18" loading="lazy" style="object-fit:contain"/></a></div></div></div><div class="flex gap-3 relative !h-0 !overflow-hidden !p-0 !m-0" style="content-visibility:hidden" inert="" aria-hidden="true"><div class="flex flex-col items-center shrink-0"><div class="w-px h-[7px] bg-pk-border"></div><div class="w-3 h-3 rounded-full border-2 border-pk-gray-300 bg-pk-surface shrink-0"></div><div class="w-px flex-1 bg-pk-border"></div></div><div class="flex-1 pb-8"><span class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary">Jul 29 2026</span><p class="text-body-base font-semibold text-pk-content-primary leading-5 mt-1">FOMC holds federal funds rate steady at 3.50%-3.75% with 9-3 vote, dissenters favor hike</p><p class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-secondary leading-5 mt-1">The July FOMC meeting resulted in no rate change but featured three dissenting votes for a hike, signaling internal Fed caution about inflation. This split vote contributed to market uncertainty and fluctuating probabilities between &#x27;No change&#x27; and &#x27;25 bps increase&#x27;.</p><div class="flex items-center gap-1.5 mt-3"><a href="https://emergencyfundcalculator.com/fed-interest-rate-decision-august-2026/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" class="flex items-center justify-center rounded-md overflow-hidden bg-white" style="width:28px;height:28px;border:1px solid var(--color-pk-border)" data-state="closed" data-slot="tooltip-trigger"><img src="https://www.google.com/s2/favicons?domain=emergencyfundcalculator.com&amp;sz=64" alt="Emergency Fund Calculator" referrerPolicy="no-referrer" width="18" height="18" loading="lazy" style="object-fit:contain"/></a></div></div></div><div class="flex gap-3 relative !h-0 !overflow-hidden !p-0 !m-0" style="content-visibility:hidden" inert="" aria-hidden="true"><div class="flex flex-col items-center shrink-0"><div class="w-px h-[7px] bg-pk-border"></div><div class="w-3 h-3 rounded-full border-2 border-pk-gray-300 bg-pk-surface shrink-0"></div><div class="w-px flex-1 bg-pk-border"></div></div><div class="flex-1 pb-8"><span class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary">Jul 29 2026</span><p class="text-body-base font-semibold text-pk-content-primary leading-5 mt-1">Fed Chair Kevin Warsh emphasizes no tolerance for elevated inflation</p><p class="flex items-center gap-1 text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary mt-0.5"><span>25 bps increase<!-- --> <!-- -->surges to<!-- --> <!-- -->51<!-- -->%</span><span class="inline-flex items-center gap-0.5 font-semibold text-pk-content-accent-green"><svg width="8" height="8" viewBox="0 0 12 12" fill="none" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><path d="M6.51952 2.5C6.28858 2.1 5.71123 2.1 5.48029 2.5L1.84298 8.8C1.61204 9.2 1.90072 9.7 2.3626 9.7L9.63721 9.7C10.0991 9.7 10.3878 9.2 10.1568 8.8L6.51952 2.5Z" fill="currentColor"></path></svg>25<!-- -->%</span></p><p class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-secondary leading-5 mt-1">At his second meeting as Fed Chair, Kevin Warsh declared a firm stance against elevated inflation, reinforcing expectations for a possible rate hike in September despite the July hold. This hawkish tone influenced market pricing toward a 25 bps increase.</p><div class="flex items-center gap-1.5 mt-3"><a href="https://www.nytimes.com/live/2026/07/29/business/fed-meeting-rates-kevin-warsh" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" class="flex items-center justify-center rounded-md overflow-hidden bg-white" style="width:28px;height:28px;border:1px solid var(--color-pk-border)" data-state="closed" data-slot="tooltip-trigger"><img src="https://www.google.com/s2/favicons?domain=www.nytimes.com&amp;sz=64" alt="The New York Times" referrerPolicy="no-referrer" width="18" height="18" loading="lazy" style="object-fit:contain"/></a></div></div></div><div class="flex gap-3 relative !h-0 !overflow-hidden !p-0 !m-0" style="content-visibility:hidden" inert="" aria-hidden="true"><div class="flex flex-col items-center shrink-0"><div class="w-px h-[7px] bg-pk-border"></div><div class="w-3 h-3 rounded-full border-2 border-pk-gray-300 bg-pk-surface shrink-0"></div><div class="w-px flex-1 bg-pk-border"></div></div><div class="flex-1 pb-8"><span class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary">Jul 29 2026</span><p class="text-body-base font-semibold text-pk-content-primary leading-5 mt-1">Federal Reserve maintains rates at 3.50%-3.75% with no forward guidance</p><p class="flex items-center gap-1 text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary mt-0.5"><span>25 bps increase<!-- --> <!-- -->surges to<!-- --> <!-- -->56<!-- -->%</span><span class="inline-flex items-center gap-0.5 font-semibold text-pk-content-accent-green"><svg width="8" height="8" viewBox="0 0 12 12" fill="none" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><path d="M6.51952 2.5C6.28858 2.1 5.71123 2.1 5.48029 2.5L1.84298 8.8C1.61204 9.2 1.90072 9.7 2.3626 9.7L9.63721 9.7C10.0991 9.7 10.3878 9.2 10.1568 8.8L6.51952 2.5Z" fill="currentColor"></path></svg>18<!-- -->%</span></p><p class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-secondary leading-5 mt-1">The July 28-29 FOMC meeting resulted in a unanimous decision to keep rates steady at 3.50%-3.75% and maintain the interest rate on reserve balances at 3.65%. The Fed continued its policy of maintaining ample reserves and refrained from providing forward guidance, reinforcing the market&#x27;s view that a modest rate hike is likely in the near future, supporting the rise in probability for a 25 bps increase in September.</p><div class="flex items-center gap-1.5 mt-3"><a href="https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20260729a1.htm" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" class="flex items-center justify-center rounded-md overflow-hidden bg-white" style="width:28px;height:28px;border:1px solid var(--color-pk-border)" data-state="closed" data-slot="tooltip-trigger"><img src="https://www.google.com/s2/favicons?domain=www.federalreserve.gov&amp;sz=64" alt="Federal Reserve" referrerPolicy="no-referrer" width="18" height="18" loading="lazy" style="object-fit:contain"/></a></div></div></div><div class="flex gap-3 relative !h-0 !overflow-hidden !p-0 !m-0" style="content-visibility:hidden" inert="" aria-hidden="true"><div class="flex flex-col items-center shrink-0"><div class="w-px h-[7px] bg-pk-border"></div><div class="w-3 h-3 rounded-full border-2 border-pk-gray-300 bg-pk-surface shrink-0"></div><div class="w-px flex-1 bg-pk-border"></div></div><div class="flex-1 pb-8"><span class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary">Jul 29 2026</span><p class="text-body-base font-semibold text-pk-content-primary leading-5 mt-1">US Federal Reserve holds interest rates steady in July 2026 amid inflation concerns</p><p class="flex items-center gap-1 text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary mt-0.5"><span>No change<!-- --> <!-- -->jumps to<!-- --> <!-- -->49<!-- -->%</span><span class="inline-flex items-center gap-0.5 font-semibold text-pk-content-accent-green"><svg width="8" height="8" viewBox="0 0 12 12" fill="none" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><path d="M6.51952 2.5C6.28858 2.1 5.71123 2.1 5.48029 2.5L1.84298 8.8C1.61204 9.2 1.90072 9.7 2.3626 9.7L9.63721 9.7C10.0991 9.7 10.3878 9.2 10.1568 8.8L6.51952 2.5Z" fill="currentColor"></path></svg>10<!-- -->%</span></p><p class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-secondary leading-5 mt-1">The Fed maintained the target range at 3.50%-3.75% in July, with inflation remaining above target and some members favoring further tightening. The decision reflected ongoing uncertainty and diverse views on future rate moves.</p><div class="flex items-center gap-1.5 mt-3"><a href="https://www.scotiagam.com/en/home/insights/us-federal-reserve-holds-interest-rates-steady-in-july-2026.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" class="flex items-center justify-center rounded-md overflow-hidden bg-white" style="width:28px;height:28px;border:1px solid var(--color-pk-border)" data-state="closed" data-slot="tooltip-trigger"><img src="https://www.google.com/s2/favicons?domain=www.scotiagam.com&amp;sz=64" alt="Scotiabank" referrerPolicy="no-referrer" width="18" height="18" loading="lazy" style="object-fit:contain"/></a></div></div></div><div class="flex gap-3 relative !h-0 !overflow-hidden !p-0 !m-0" style="content-visibility:hidden" inert="" aria-hidden="true"><div class="flex flex-col items-center shrink-0"><div class="w-px h-[7px] bg-pk-border"></div><div class="w-3 h-3 rounded-full border-2 border-pk-gray-300 bg-pk-surface shrink-0"></div><div class="w-px flex-1 bg-pk-border"></div></div><div class="flex-1 pb-8"><span class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary">Jul 29 2026</span><p class="text-body-base font-semibold text-pk-content-primary leading-5 mt-1">Federal Reserve holds interest rates steady at 3.50%-3.75% despite inflation and energy price spikes</p><p class="flex items-center gap-1 text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary mt-0.5"><span>No change<!-- --> <!-- -->dips to<!-- --> <!-- -->50<!-- -->%</span><span class="inline-flex items-center gap-0.5 font-semibold text-pk-content-accent-red"><svg width="8" height="8" viewBox="0 0 12 12" fill="none" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><path d="M6.51952 9.5C6.28858 9.9 5.71123 9.9 5.48029 9.5L1.84298 3.2C1.61204 2.8 1.90072 2.3 2.3626 2.3L9.63721 2.3C10.0991 2.3 10.3878 2.8 10.1568 3.2L6.51952 9.5Z" fill="currentColor"></path></svg>3<!-- -->%</span></p><p class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-secondary leading-5 mt-1">The Fed voted 9-3 to keep rates unchanged amid persistent inflation and a spike in energy prices caused by the Middle East conflict. Three regional Fed presidents dissented, favoring a 25 basis point hike, signaling ongoing debate and hawkish pressure ahead of September.</p><div class="flex items-center gap-1.5 mt-3"><a href="https://www.ttnews.com/articles/federal-reserve-july-hold" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" class="flex items-center justify-center rounded-md overflow-hidden bg-white" style="width:28px;height:28px;border:1px solid var(--color-pk-border)" data-state="closed" data-slot="tooltip-trigger"><img src="https://www.google.com/s2/favicons?domain=www.ttnews.com&amp;sz=64" alt="Associated Press" referrerPolicy="no-referrer" width="18" height="18" loading="lazy" style="object-fit:contain"/></a><a href="https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20260729a.htm" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" class="flex items-center justify-center rounded-md overflow-hidden bg-white" style="width:28px;height:28px;border:1px solid var(--color-pk-border)" data-state="closed" data-slot="tooltip-trigger"><img src="https://www.google.com/s2/favicons?domain=www.federalreserve.gov&amp;sz=64" alt="Federal Reserve" referrerPolicy="no-referrer" width="18" height="18" loading="lazy" style="object-fit:contain"/></a></div></div></div><div class="flex gap-3 relative !h-0 !overflow-hidden !p-0 !m-0" style="content-visibility:hidden" inert="" aria-hidden="true"><div class="flex flex-col items-center shrink-0"><div class="w-px h-[7px] bg-pk-border"></div><div class="w-3 h-3 rounded-full border-2 border-pk-gray-300 bg-pk-surface shrink-0"></div><div class="w-px flex-1 bg-pk-border"></div></div><div class="flex-1 pb-8"><span class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary">Jul 29 2026</span><p class="text-body-base font-semibold text-pk-content-primary leading-5 mt-1">Fed Chair Kevin Warsh Highlights Intense Debate and Commitment to Inflation Control</p><p class="flex items-center gap-1 text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary mt-0.5"><span>25 bps increase<!-- --> <!-- -->surges to<!-- --> <!-- -->53<!-- -->%</span><span class="inline-flex items-center gap-0.5 font-semibold text-pk-content-accent-green"><svg width="8" height="8" viewBox="0 0 12 12" fill="none" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><path d="M6.51952 2.5C6.28858 2.1 5.71123 2.1 5.48029 2.5L1.84298 8.8C1.61204 9.2 1.90072 9.7 2.3626 9.7L9.63721 9.7C10.0991 9.7 10.3878 9.2 10.1568 8.8L6.51952 2.5Z" fill="currentColor"></path></svg>16<!-- -->%</span></p><p class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-secondary leading-5 mt-1">Following the July 29 meeting, Fed Chair Kevin Warsh described the internal debate as a &#x27;good family fight&#x27; and reiterated the Fed&#x27;s commitment to price stability, emphasizing there is no &#x27;soft inflation target.&#x27; This communication reinforced market expectations of potential rate hikes if inflation remains elevated, influencing the rise in the 25 bps increase probability.</p><div class="flex items-center gap-1.5 mt-3"><a href="https://www.cbsnews.com/news/federal-reserve-interest-rates-kevin-warsh-july-206/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" class="flex items-center justify-center rounded-md overflow-hidden bg-white" style="width:28px;height:28px;border:1px solid var(--color-pk-border)" data-state="closed" data-slot="tooltip-trigger"><img src="https://www.google.com/s2/favicons?domain=www.cbsnews.com&amp;sz=64" alt="CBS News" referrerPolicy="no-referrer" width="18" height="18" loading="lazy" style="object-fit:contain"/></a></div></div></div><div class="flex gap-3 relative !h-0 !overflow-hidden !p-0 !m-0" style="content-visibility:hidden" inert="" aria-hidden="true"><div class="flex flex-col items-center shrink-0"><div class="w-px h-[7px] bg-pk-border"></div><div class="w-3 h-3 rounded-full border-2 border-pk-gray-300 bg-pk-surface shrink-0"></div><div class="w-px flex-1 bg-pk-border"></div></div><div class="flex-1 pb-8"><span class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary">Jul 29 2026</span><p class="text-body-base font-semibold text-pk-content-primary leading-5 mt-1">Fed Chair Warsh emphasizes commitment to 2% inflation target amid divided Fed</p><p class="flex items-center gap-1 text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary mt-0.5"><span>25 bps increase<!-- --> <!-- -->rises to<!-- --> <!-- -->60<!-- -->%</span><span class="inline-flex items-center gap-0.5 font-semibold text-pk-content-accent-green"><svg width="8" height="8" viewBox="0 0 12 12" fill="none" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><path d="M6.51952 2.5C6.28858 2.1 5.71123 2.1 5.48029 2.5L1.84298 8.8C1.61204 9.2 1.90072 9.7 2.3626 9.7L9.63721 9.7C10.0991 9.7 10.3878 9.2 10.1568 8.8L6.51952 2.5Z" fill="currentColor"></path></svg>4<!-- -->%</span></p><p class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-secondary leading-5 mt-1">During the July 29 press conference, Chair Kevin Warsh reiterated the Fed&#x27;s commitment to price stability and acknowledged the divided views within the committee. His remarks reinforced market expectations for a possible rate hike in September if inflation remains elevated.</p><div class="flex items-center gap-1.5 mt-3"><a href="https://www.forexfactory.com/news/1410791-fomc-press-conference-july-29-2026" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" class="flex items-center justify-center rounded-md overflow-hidden bg-white" style="width:28px;height:28px;border:1px solid var(--color-pk-border)" data-state="closed" data-slot="tooltip-trigger"><img src="https://www.google.com/s2/favicons?domain=www.forexfactory.com&amp;sz=64" alt="Forex Factory" referrerPolicy="no-referrer" width="18" height="18" loading="lazy" style="object-fit:contain"/></a></div></div></div><div class="flex gap-3 relative !h-0 !overflow-hidden !p-0 !m-0" style="content-visibility:hidden" inert="" aria-hidden="true"><div class="flex flex-col items-center shrink-0"><div class="w-px h-[7px] bg-pk-border"></div><div class="w-3 h-3 rounded-full border-2 border-pk-gray-300 bg-pk-surface shrink-0"></div><div class="w-px flex-1 bg-pk-border"></div></div><div class="flex-1 pb-8"><span class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary">Jul 29 2026</span><p class="text-body-base font-semibold text-pk-content-primary leading-5 mt-1">July FOMC Meeting Minutes Show Majority Support for Maintaining Rates</p><p class="flex items-center gap-1 text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary mt-0.5"><span>25 bps increase<!-- --> <!-- -->jumps to<!-- --> <!-- -->54<!-- -->%</span><span class="inline-flex items-center gap-0.5 font-semibold text-pk-content-accent-green"><svg width="8" height="8" viewBox="0 0 12 12" fill="none" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><path d="M6.51952 2.5C6.28858 2.1 5.71123 2.1 5.48029 2.5L1.84298 8.8C1.61204 9.2 1.90072 9.7 2.3626 9.7L9.63721 9.7C10.0991 9.7 10.3878 9.2 10.1568 8.8L6.51952 2.5Z" fill="currentColor"></path></svg>12<!-- -->%</span></p><p class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-secondary leading-5 mt-1">Minutes from the July 28-29 FOMC meeting revealed that most participants favored keeping the federal funds rate steady at 3.50%-3.75%, with some dissenters preferring a rate hike. The discussion of inflation risks and balance sheet policy contributed to market anticipation of a moderate rate increase in September.</p><div class="flex items-center gap-1.5 mt-3"><a href="https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomcminutes20260729.htm" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" class="flex items-center justify-center rounded-md overflow-hidden bg-white" style="width:28px;height:28px;border:1px solid var(--color-pk-border)" data-state="closed" data-slot="tooltip-trigger"><img src="https://www.google.com/s2/favicons?domain=www.federalreserve.gov&amp;sz=64" alt="Federal Reserve" referrerPolicy="no-referrer" width="18" height="18" loading="lazy" style="object-fit:contain"/></a></div></div></div><div class="flex gap-3 relative !h-0 !overflow-hidden !p-0 !m-0" style="content-visibility:hidden" inert="" aria-hidden="true"><div class="flex flex-col items-center shrink-0"><div class="w-px h-[7px] bg-pk-border"></div><div class="w-3 h-3 rounded-full border-2 border-pk-gray-300 bg-pk-surface shrink-0"></div><div class="w-px flex-1 bg-pk-border"></div></div><div class="flex-1 pb-8"><span class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary">Jul 29 2026</span><p class="text-body-base font-semibold text-pk-content-primary leading-5 mt-1">Fed Chair Kevin Warsh signals hawkish stance, rejecting pause in rate hikes</p><p class="flex items-center gap-1 text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary mt-0.5"><span>25 bps increase<!-- --> <!-- -->surges to<!-- --> <!-- -->41<!-- -->%</span><span class="inline-flex items-center gap-0.5 font-semibold text-pk-content-accent-green"><svg width="8" height="8" viewBox="0 0 12 12" fill="none" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><path d="M6.51952 2.5C6.28858 2.1 5.71123 2.1 5.48029 2.5L1.84298 8.8C1.61204 9.2 1.90072 9.7 2.3626 9.7L9.63721 9.7C10.0991 9.7 10.3878 9.2 10.1568 8.8L6.51952 2.5Z" fill="currentColor"></path></svg>15<!-- -->%</span></p><p class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-secondary leading-5 mt-1">Following the July FOMC meeting, Chair Kevin Warsh explicitly rejected the idea of a pause in rate changes, describing the hold as the beginning of a story and signaling that rate hikes remain possible. This hawkish tone led markets to price in one to two rate hikes by the end of 2026, with September seen as the most likely timing for the first increase.</p><div class="flex items-center gap-1.5 mt-3"><a href="https://polymarket.copilot.markets/event/fed-decision-in-september-762" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" class="flex items-center justify-center rounded-md overflow-hidden bg-white" style="width:28px;height:28px;border:1px solid var(--color-pk-border)" data-state="closed" data-slot="tooltip-trigger"><img src="https://www.google.com/s2/favicons?domain=polymarket.copilot.markets&amp;sz=64" alt="Polymarket Analysis" referrerPolicy="no-referrer" width="18" height="18" loading="lazy" style="object-fit:contain"/></a></div></div></div><div class="flex gap-3 relative !h-0 !overflow-hidden !p-0 !m-0" style="content-visibility:hidden" inert="" aria-hidden="true"><div class="flex flex-col items-center shrink-0"><div class="w-px h-[7px] bg-pk-border"></div><div class="w-3 h-3 rounded-full border-2 border-pk-gray-300 bg-pk-surface shrink-0"></div><div class="w-px flex-1 bg-pk-border"></div></div><div class="flex-1 pb-8"><span class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary">Jul 29 2026</span><p class="text-body-base font-semibold text-pk-content-primary leading-5 mt-1">FOMC holds rates at 3.50%–3.75% with dissenters favoring a quarter-point hike</p><p class="flex items-center gap-1 text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary mt-0.5"><span>25 bps increase<!-- --> <!-- -->surges to<!-- --> <!-- -->40<!-- -->%</span><span class="inline-flex items-center gap-0.5 font-semibold text-pk-content-accent-green"><svg width="8" height="8" viewBox="0 0 12 12" fill="none" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><path d="M6.51952 2.5C6.28858 2.1 5.71123 2.1 5.48029 2.5L1.84298 8.8C1.61204 9.2 1.90072 9.7 2.3626 9.7L9.63721 9.7C10.0991 9.7 10.3878 9.2 10.1568 8.8L6.51952 2.5Z" fill="currentColor"></path></svg>24<!-- -->%</span></p><p class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-secondary leading-5 mt-1">The July 29, 2026 FOMC statement maintained the federal funds rate at 3.50%–3.75%, with a 9–3 vote. The statement noted inflation remains elevated relative to the 2% goal, partly due to supply shocks including energy. The dissenters&#x27; preference for a 25 bps increase signaled growing hawkish sentiment, influencing market expectations for a possible September hike.</p><div class="flex items-center gap-1.5 mt-3"><a href="https://polymarkettrader.com/events/fed-fomc-october-2026/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" class="flex items-center justify-center rounded-md overflow-hidden bg-white" style="width:28px;height:28px;border:1px solid var(--color-pk-border)" data-state="closed" data-slot="tooltip-trigger"><img src="https://www.google.com/s2/favicons?domain=polymarkettrader.com&amp;sz=64" alt="Polymarkettrader" referrerPolicy="no-referrer" width="18" height="18" loading="lazy" style="object-fit:contain"/></a></div></div></div><div class="flex gap-3 relative !h-0 !overflow-hidden !p-0 !m-0" style="content-visibility:hidden" inert="" aria-hidden="true"><div class="flex flex-col items-center shrink-0"><div class="w-px h-[7px] bg-pk-border"></div><div class="w-3 h-3 rounded-full border-2 border-pk-gray-300 bg-pk-surface shrink-0"></div><div class="w-px flex-1 bg-pk-border"></div></div><div class="flex-1 pb-8"><span class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary">Jul 29 2026</span><p class="text-body-base font-semibold text-pk-content-primary leading-5 mt-1">Federal Reserve holds rates with three dissenters favoring hike</p><p class="flex items-center gap-1 text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary mt-0.5"><span>No change<!-- --> <!-- -->rises to<!-- --> <!-- -->45<!-- -->%</span><span class="inline-flex items-center gap-0.5 font-semibold text-pk-content-accent-green"><svg width="8" height="8" viewBox="0 0 12 12" fill="none" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><path d="M6.51952 2.5C6.28858 2.1 5.71123 2.1 5.48029 2.5L1.84298 8.8C1.61204 9.2 1.90072 9.7 2.3626 9.7L9.63721 9.7C10.0991 9.7 10.3878 9.2 10.1568 8.8L6.51952 2.5Z" fill="currentColor"></path></svg>3<!-- -->%</span></p><p class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-secondary leading-5 mt-1">On July 29, 2026, the Fed again held rates steady at 3.50%–3.75% in a 9-3 vote, with three members dissenting for a 25 bps increase. Chair Warsh rejected the notion of a pause, framing the decision as a review before potential hikes, which led markets to price in a likely rate increase at the September meeting.</p><div class="flex items-center gap-1.5 mt-3"><a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2026/07/29/fed-meeting-today-live-updates.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" class="flex items-center justify-center rounded-md overflow-hidden bg-white" style="width:28px;height:28px;border:1px solid var(--color-pk-border)" data-state="closed" data-slot="tooltip-trigger"><img src="https://www.google.com/s2/favicons?domain=www.cnbc.com&amp;sz=64" alt="CNBC" referrerPolicy="no-referrer" width="18" height="18" loading="lazy" style="object-fit:contain"/></a><a href="https://blog.orbitremit.com/fed-holds-rates-federal-reserve-july-2026/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" class="flex items-center justify-center rounded-md overflow-hidden bg-white" style="width:28px;height:28px;border:1px solid var(--color-pk-border)" data-state="closed" data-slot="tooltip-trigger"><img src="https://www.google.com/s2/favicons?domain=blog.orbitremit.com&amp;sz=64" alt="OrbitRemit" referrerPolicy="no-referrer" width="18" height="18" loading="lazy" style="object-fit:contain"/></a></div></div></div><div class="flex gap-3 relative !h-0 !overflow-hidden !p-0 !m-0" style="content-visibility:hidden" inert="" aria-hidden="true"><div class="flex flex-col items-center shrink-0"><div class="w-px h-[7px] bg-pk-border"></div><div class="w-3 h-3 rounded-full border-2 border-pk-gray-300 bg-pk-surface shrink-0"></div><div class="w-px flex-1 bg-pk-border"></div></div><div class="flex-1 pb-8"><span class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary">Jul 29 2026</span><p class="text-body-base font-semibold text-pk-content-primary leading-5 mt-1">Federal Reserve holds rates steady at 3.50%-3.75% with three dissenters favoring hike</p><p class="flex items-center gap-1 text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary mt-0.5"><span>No change<!-- --> <!-- -->surges to<!-- --> <!-- -->65<!-- -->%</span><span class="inline-flex items-center gap-0.5 font-semibold text-pk-content-accent-green"><svg width="8" height="8" viewBox="0 0 12 12" fill="none" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><path d="M6.51952 2.5C6.28858 2.1 5.71123 2.1 5.48029 2.5L1.84298 8.8C1.61204 9.2 1.90072 9.7 2.3626 9.7L9.63721 9.7C10.0991 9.7 10.3878 9.2 10.1568 8.8L6.51952 2.5Z" fill="currentColor"></path></svg>26<!-- -->%</span></p><p class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-secondary leading-5 mt-1">At the July 29, 2026 FOMC meeting, the Fed held rates steady at 3.50%-3.75% in a 9-3 vote, with three regional Fed presidents dissenting for a 25 bps hike. Chair Kevin Warsh rejected the notion of a pause, signaling ongoing inflation concerns and keeping a September hike on the table.</p><div class="flex items-center gap-1.5 mt-3"><a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2026/07/29/fed-interest-rate-decision-july-2026.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" class="flex items-center justify-center rounded-md overflow-hidden bg-white" style="width:28px;height:28px;border:1px solid var(--color-pk-border)" data-state="closed" data-slot="tooltip-trigger"><img src="https://www.google.com/s2/favicons?domain=www.cnbc.com&amp;sz=64" alt="CNBC" referrerPolicy="no-referrer" width="18" height="18" loading="lazy" style="object-fit:contain"/></a><a href="https://blog.orbitremit.com/fed-holds-rates-federal-reserve-july-2026/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" class="flex items-center justify-center rounded-md overflow-hidden bg-white" style="width:28px;height:28px;border:1px solid var(--color-pk-border)" data-state="closed" data-slot="tooltip-trigger"><img src="https://www.google.com/s2/favicons?domain=blog.orbitremit.com&amp;sz=64" alt="OrbitRemit" referrerPolicy="no-referrer" width="18" height="18" loading="lazy" style="object-fit:contain"/></a></div></div></div><div class="flex gap-3 relative !h-0 !overflow-hidden !p-0 !m-0" style="content-visibility:hidden" inert="" aria-hidden="true"><div class="flex flex-col items-center shrink-0"><div class="w-px h-[7px] bg-pk-border"></div><div class="w-3 h-3 rounded-full border-2 border-pk-gray-300 bg-pk-surface shrink-0"></div><div class="w-px flex-1 bg-pk-border"></div></div><div class="flex-1 pb-8"><span class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary">Jul 29 2026</span><p class="text-body-base font-semibold text-pk-content-primary leading-5 mt-1">Federal Reserve holds interest rates steady at 3.50–3.75% in divided 9–3 vote</p><p class="flex items-center gap-1 text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary mt-0.5"><span>25 bps increase<!-- --> <!-- -->surges to<!-- --> <!-- -->59<!-- -->%</span><span class="inline-flex items-center gap-0.5 font-semibold text-pk-content-accent-green"><svg width="8" height="8" viewBox="0 0 12 12" fill="none" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><path d="M6.51952 2.5C6.28858 2.1 5.71123 2.1 5.48029 2.5L1.84298 8.8C1.61204 9.2 1.90072 9.7 2.3626 9.7L9.63721 9.7C10.0991 9.7 10.3878 9.2 10.1568 8.8L6.51952 2.5Z" fill="currentColor"></path></svg>24<!-- -->%</span></p><p class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-secondary leading-5 mt-1">On July 29, 2026, the Federal Reserve decided to keep the federal funds target range unchanged at 3.50%–3.75%, with three officials dissenting in favor of a 0.25-point increase. This decision reflected a split within the FOMC and influenced market expectations for the September meeting, increasing the likelihood of a rate hike.</p><div class="flex items-center gap-1.5 mt-3"><a href="https://cambridgecurrencies.com/next-federal-reserve-interest-rate-decision/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" class="flex items-center justify-center rounded-md overflow-hidden bg-white" style="width:28px;height:28px;border:1px solid var(--color-pk-border)" data-state="closed" data-slot="tooltip-trigger"><img src="https://www.google.com/s2/favicons?domain=cambridgecurrencies.com&amp;sz=64" alt="Cambridge Currencies" referrerPolicy="no-referrer" width="18" height="18" loading="lazy" style="object-fit:contain"/></a></div></div></div><div class="flex gap-3 relative !h-0 !overflow-hidden !p-0 !m-0" style="content-visibility:hidden" inert="" aria-hidden="true"><div class="flex flex-col items-center shrink-0"><div class="w-px h-[7px] bg-pk-border"></div><div class="w-3 h-3 rounded-full border-2 border-pk-gray-300 bg-pk-surface shrink-0"></div><div class="w-px flex-1 bg-pk-border"></div></div><div class="flex-1 pb-8"><span class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary">Jul 29 2026</span><p class="text-body-base font-semibold text-pk-content-primary leading-5 mt-1">FOMC minutes reveal inflation concerns and resolve to maintain rates</p><p class="flex items-center gap-1 text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary mt-0.5"><span>No change<!-- --> <!-- -->rises to<!-- --> <!-- -->59<!-- -->%</span><span class="inline-flex items-center gap-0.5 font-semibold text-pk-content-accent-green"><svg width="8" height="8" viewBox="0 0 12 12" fill="none" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><path d="M6.51952 2.5C6.28858 2.1 5.71123 2.1 5.48029 2.5L1.84298 8.8C1.61204 9.2 1.90072 9.7 2.3626 9.7L9.63721 9.7C10.0991 9.7 10.3878 9.2 10.1568 8.8L6.51952 2.5Z" fill="currentColor"></path></svg>3<!-- -->%</span></p><p class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-secondary leading-5 mt-1">The July 28–29 FOMC minutes highlighted that inflation remained elevated and that the Committee was resolved to maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 3.50%–3.75%. The minutes noted supply shocks and energy price increases but emphasized the commitment to price stability, influencing market confidence in no rate change.</p><div class="flex items-center gap-1.5 mt-3"><a href="https://www.actionforex.com/central-banks/federal-reserve/651177-fed-minutes-of-the-federal-open-market-committee-40/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" class="flex items-center justify-center rounded-md overflow-hidden bg-white" style="width:28px;height:28px;border:1px solid var(--color-pk-border)" data-state="closed" data-slot="tooltip-trigger"><img src="https://www.google.com/s2/favicons?domain=www.actionforex.com&amp;sz=64" alt="ActionForex" referrerPolicy="no-referrer" width="18" height="18" loading="lazy" style="object-fit:contain"/></a></div></div></div><div class="flex gap-3 relative !h-0 !overflow-hidden !p-0 !m-0" style="content-visibility:hidden" inert="" aria-hidden="true"><div class="flex flex-col items-center shrink-0"><div class="w-px h-[7px] bg-pk-border"></div><div class="w-3 h-3 rounded-full border-2 border-pk-gray-300 bg-pk-surface shrink-0"></div><div class="w-px flex-1 bg-pk-border"></div></div><div class="flex-1 pb-8"><span class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary">Jul 29 2026</span><p class="text-body-base font-semibold text-pk-content-primary leading-5 mt-1">Federal Reserve keeps interest rates steady at 3.50%-3.75% in July FOMC meeting</p><p class="flex items-center gap-1 text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary mt-0.5"><span>No change<!-- --> <!-- -->drops to<!-- --> <!-- -->43<!-- -->%</span><span class="inline-flex items-center gap-0.5 font-semibold text-pk-content-accent-red"><svg width="8" height="8" viewBox="0 0 12 12" fill="none" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><path d="M6.51952 9.5C6.28858 9.9 5.71123 9.9 5.48029 9.5L1.84298 3.2C1.61204 2.8 1.90072 2.3 2.3626 2.3L9.63721 2.3C10.0991 2.3 10.3878 2.8 10.1568 3.2L6.51952 9.5Z" fill="currentColor"></path></svg>13<!-- -->%</span></p><p class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-secondary leading-5 mt-1">The FOMC meeting on July 28-29 resulted in a decision to maintain the federal funds rate target range unchanged, with nine members supporting the pause and three dissenting in favor of a 25 basis point hike. The statement emphasized ongoing elevated inflation and solid economic growth, reinforcing a cautious but hawkish stance ahead of the September meeting.</p><div class="flex items-center gap-1.5 mt-3"><a href="https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomcminutes20260729.htm" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" class="flex items-center justify-center rounded-md overflow-hidden bg-white" style="width:28px;height:28px;border:1px solid var(--color-pk-border)" data-state="closed" data-slot="tooltip-trigger"><img src="https://www.google.com/s2/favicons?domain=www.federalreserve.gov&amp;sz=64" alt="Federal Reserve Board" referrerPolicy="no-referrer" width="18" height="18" loading="lazy" style="object-fit:contain"/></a><a href="https://www.ahmedabadmirror.com/us-federal-reserve-holds-int-rates-steady/81918754.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" class="flex items-center justify-center rounded-md overflow-hidden bg-white" style="width:28px;height:28px;border:1px solid var(--color-pk-border)" data-state="closed" data-slot="tooltip-trigger"><img src="https://www.google.com/s2/favicons?domain=www.ahmedabadmirror.com&amp;sz=64" alt="Ahmedabad Mirror" referrerPolicy="no-referrer" width="18" height="18" loading="lazy" style="object-fit:contain"/></a></div></div></div><div class="flex gap-3 relative !h-0 !overflow-hidden !p-0 !m-0" style="content-visibility:hidden" inert="" aria-hidden="true"><div class="flex flex-col items-center shrink-0"><div class="w-px h-[7px] bg-pk-border"></div><div class="w-3 h-3 rounded-full border-2 border-pk-gray-300 bg-pk-surface shrink-0"></div><div class="w-px flex-1 bg-pk-border"></div></div><div class="flex-1 pb-8"><span class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary">Jul 28 2026</span><p class="text-body-base font-semibold text-pk-content-primary leading-5 mt-1">Federal Reserve holds rates at 3.50%-3.75% in divided 9-3 vote</p><p class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-secondary leading-5 mt-1">At the July 28-29 FOMC meeting, the Committee voted 9-3 to keep the federal funds rate target range unchanged, with three members dissenting in favor of a 25 basis points increase. The statement emphasized elevated inflation and data dependence for future decisions, reinforcing market anticipation of a potential September hike.</p><div class="flex items-center gap-1.5 mt-3"><a href="https://www.actionforex.com/central-banks/federal-reserve/651177-fed-minutes-of-the-federal-open-market-committee-40/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" class="flex items-center justify-center rounded-md overflow-hidden bg-white" style="width:28px;height:28px;border:1px solid var(--color-pk-border)" data-state="closed" data-slot="tooltip-trigger"><img src="https://www.google.com/s2/favicons?domain=www.actionforex.com&amp;sz=64" alt="ActionForex" referrerPolicy="no-referrer" width="18" height="18" loading="lazy" style="object-fit:contain"/></a><a href="https://cambridgecurrencies.com/next-federal-reserve-interest-rate-decision/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" class="flex items-center justify-center rounded-md overflow-hidden bg-white" style="width:28px;height:28px;border:1px solid var(--color-pk-border)" data-state="closed" data-slot="tooltip-trigger"><img src="https://www.google.com/s2/favicons?domain=cambridgecurrencies.com&amp;sz=64" alt="Cambridge Currencies" referrerPolicy="no-referrer" width="18" height="18" loading="lazy" style="object-fit:contain"/></a></div></div></div><div class="flex gap-3 relative !h-0 !overflow-hidden !p-0 !m-0" style="content-visibility:hidden" inert="" aria-hidden="true"><div class="flex flex-col items-center shrink-0"><div class="w-px h-[7px] bg-pk-border"></div><div class="w-3 h-3 rounded-full border-2 border-pk-gray-300 bg-pk-surface shrink-0"></div><div class="w-px flex-1 bg-pk-border"></div></div><div class="flex-1 pb-8"><span class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary">Jul 28 2026</span><p class="text-body-base font-semibold text-pk-content-primary leading-5 mt-1">Federal Reserve holds rates steady at 3.50%–3.75% in divided 9–3 vote</p><p class="flex items-center gap-1 text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary mt-0.5"><span>No change<!-- --> <!-- -->rises to<!-- --> <!-- -->59<!-- -->%</span><span class="inline-flex items-center gap-0.5 font-semibold text-pk-content-accent-green"><svg width="8" height="8" viewBox="0 0 12 12" fill="none" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><path d="M6.51952 2.5C6.28858 2.1 5.71123 2.1 5.48029 2.5L1.84298 8.8C1.61204 9.2 1.90072 9.7 2.3626 9.7L9.63721 9.7C10.0991 9.7 10.3878 9.2 10.1568 8.8L6.51952 2.5Z" fill="currentColor"></path></svg>3<!-- -->%</span></p><p class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-secondary leading-5 mt-1">At the July 28–29 FOMC meeting, the Federal Reserve decided to maintain the federal funds target range at 3.50%–3.75%, with three officials dissenting in favor of a 25 basis points hike. This decision reinforced market expectations of no immediate change in September, supporting the &#x27;No change&#x27; outcome.</p><div class="flex items-center gap-1.5 mt-3"><a href="https://cambridgecurrencies.com/next-federal-reserve-interest-rate-decision/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" class="flex items-center justify-center rounded-md overflow-hidden bg-white" style="width:28px;height:28px;border:1px solid var(--color-pk-border)" data-state="closed" data-slot="tooltip-trigger"><img src="https://www.google.com/s2/favicons?domain=cambridgecurrencies.com&amp;sz=64" alt="Cambridge Currencies" referrerPolicy="no-referrer" width="18" height="18" loading="lazy" style="object-fit:contain"/></a></div></div></div><div class="flex gap-3 relative !h-0 !overflow-hidden !p-0 !m-0" style="content-visibility:hidden" inert="" aria-hidden="true"><div class="flex flex-col items-center shrink-0"><div class="w-px h-[7px] bg-pk-border"></div><div class="w-3 h-3 rounded-full border-2 border-pk-gray-300 bg-pk-surface shrink-0"></div><div class="w-px flex-1 bg-pk-border"></div></div><div class="flex-1 pb-8"><span class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary">Jul 28 2026</span><p class="text-body-base font-semibold text-pk-content-primary leading-5 mt-1">Fed meeting preview highlights internal debate and market expectations for September rate move</p><p class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-secondary leading-5 mt-1">Ahead of the July 28-29 FOMC meeting, market participants anticipated a cautious Fed stance with a 62% probability of no change and 38% chance of a rate hike. The Fed faced a &quot;family fight&quot; over policy direction amid mixed inflation and labor market data, setting the stage for September decisions.</p><div class="flex items-center gap-1.5 mt-3"><a href="https://thegistnotes.com/federal-reserve-faces-crucial-decision-on-interest-rates-amid-inflation-concerns/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" class="flex items-center justify-center rounded-md overflow-hidden bg-white" style="width:28px;height:28px;border:1px solid var(--color-pk-border)" data-state="closed" data-slot="tooltip-trigger"><img src="https://www.google.com/s2/favicons?domain=thegistnotes.com&amp;sz=64" alt="The Gist Notes" referrerPolicy="no-referrer" width="18" height="18" loading="lazy" style="object-fit:contain"/></a></div></div></div><div class="flex gap-3 relative !h-0 !overflow-hidden !p-0 !m-0" style="content-visibility:hidden" inert="" aria-hidden="true"><div class="flex flex-col items-center shrink-0"><div class="w-px h-[7px] bg-pk-border"></div><div class="w-3 h-3 rounded-full border-2 border-pk-gray-300 bg-pk-surface shrink-0"></div><div class="w-px flex-1 bg-pk-border"></div></div><div class="flex-1 pb-8"><span class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary">Jul 28 2026</span><p class="text-body-base font-semibold text-pk-content-primary leading-5 mt-1">Fed leadership signals possible rate hike amid inflation and labor market concerns</p><p class="flex items-center gap-1 text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary mt-0.5"><span>25 bps increase<!-- --> <!-- -->jumps to<!-- --> <!-- -->52<!-- -->%</span><span class="inline-flex items-center gap-0.5 font-semibold text-pk-content-accent-green"><svg width="8" height="8" viewBox="0 0 12 12" fill="none" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><path d="M6.51952 2.5C6.28858 2.1 5.71123 2.1 5.48029 2.5L1.84298 8.8C1.61204 9.2 1.90072 9.7 2.3626 9.7L9.63721 9.7C10.0991 9.7 10.3878 9.2 10.1568 8.8L6.51952 2.5Z" fill="currentColor"></path></svg>14<!-- -->%</span></p><p class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-secondary leading-5 mt-1">Ahead of the September meeting, Fed Chair Kevin Warsh described internal debates as a &quot;family fight&quot; over future rate moves, with investors increasingly anticipating a 25 bps hike due to persistent inflation and a resilient labor market. This contributed to rising market prices for the 25 bps increase outcome.</p><div class="flex items-center gap-1.5 mt-3"><a href="https://thegistnotes.com/federal-reserve-faces-crucial-decision-on-interest-rates-amid-inflation-concerns/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" class="flex items-center justify-center rounded-md overflow-hidden bg-white" style="width:28px;height:28px;border:1px solid var(--color-pk-border)" data-state="closed" data-slot="tooltip-trigger"><img src="https://www.google.com/s2/favicons?domain=thegistnotes.com&amp;sz=64" alt="The Gist Notes" referrerPolicy="no-referrer" width="18" height="18" loading="lazy" style="object-fit:contain"/></a></div></div></div><div class="flex gap-3 relative !h-0 !overflow-hidden !p-0 !m-0" style="content-visibility:hidden" inert="" aria-hidden="true"><div class="flex flex-col items-center shrink-0"><div class="w-px h-[7px] bg-pk-border"></div><div class="w-3 h-3 rounded-full border-2 border-pk-gray-300 bg-pk-surface shrink-0"></div><div class="w-px flex-1 bg-pk-border"></div></div><div class="flex-1 pb-8"><span class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary">Jul 27 2026</span><p class="text-body-base font-semibold text-pk-content-primary leading-5 mt-1">Rising market odds for a 25 bps Fed rate hike in September amid inflation and geopolitical tensions</p><p class="flex items-center gap-1 text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary mt-0.5"><span>25 bps increase<!-- --> <!-- -->surges to<!-- --> <!-- -->50<!-- -->%</span><span class="inline-flex items-center gap-0.5 font-semibold text-pk-content-accent-green"><svg width="8" height="8" viewBox="0 0 12 12" fill="none" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><path d="M6.51952 2.5C6.28858 2.1 5.71123 2.1 5.48029 2.5L1.84298 8.8C1.61204 9.2 1.90072 9.7 2.3626 9.7L9.63721 9.7C10.0991 9.7 10.3878 9.2 10.1568 8.8L6.51952 2.5Z" fill="currentColor"></path></svg>22<!-- -->%</span></p><p class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-secondary leading-5 mt-1">As of late July, market expectations increased for a 25 basis point rate hike at the September FOMC meeting, driven by persistent inflation pressures and geopolitical risks such as the conflict in the Middle East. The bond market reflected this with rising Treasury yields, and analysts highlighted the Fed&#x27;s internal debate described by Chair Warsh as a &quot;family fight&quot; over future rate policy.</p><div class="flex items-center gap-1.5 mt-3"><a href="https://thegistnotes.com/federal-reserve-faces-crucial-decision-on-interest-rates-amid-inflation-concerns/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" class="flex items-center justify-center rounded-md overflow-hidden bg-white" style="width:28px;height:28px;border:1px solid var(--color-pk-border)" data-state="closed" data-slot="tooltip-trigger"><img src="https://www.google.com/s2/favicons?domain=thegistnotes.com&amp;sz=64" alt="The Gist Notes" referrerPolicy="no-referrer" width="18" height="18" loading="lazy" style="object-fit:contain"/></a><a href="https://www.foxbusiness.com/economy/federal-reserve-interest-rate-decision-july-29-2026" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" class="flex items-center justify-center rounded-md overflow-hidden bg-white" style="width:28px;height:28px;border:1px solid var(--color-pk-border)" data-state="closed" data-slot="tooltip-trigger"><img src="https://www.google.com/s2/favicons?domain=www.foxbusiness.com&amp;sz=64" alt="Fox Business" referrerPolicy="no-referrer" width="18" height="18" loading="lazy" style="object-fit:contain"/></a></div></div></div><div class="flex gap-3 relative !h-0 !overflow-hidden !p-0 !m-0" style="content-visibility:hidden" inert="" aria-hidden="true"><div class="flex flex-col items-center shrink-0"><div class="w-px h-[7px] bg-pk-border"></div><div class="w-3 h-3 rounded-full border-2 border-pk-gray-300 bg-pk-surface shrink-0"></div><div class="w-px flex-1 bg-pk-border"></div></div><div class="flex-1 pb-8"><span class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary">Jul 27 2026</span><p class="text-body-base font-semibold text-pk-content-primary leading-5 mt-1">Market odds rise for 25 bps Fed rate hike in September amid inflation and geopolitical concerns</p><p class="flex items-center gap-1 text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary mt-0.5"><span>25 bps increase<!-- --> <!-- -->jumps to<!-- --> <!-- -->59<!-- -->%</span><span class="inline-flex items-center gap-0.5 font-semibold text-pk-content-accent-green"><svg width="8" height="8" viewBox="0 0 12 12" fill="none" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><path d="M6.51952 2.5C6.28858 2.1 5.71123 2.1 5.48029 2.5L1.84298 8.8C1.61204 9.2 1.90072 9.7 2.3626 9.7L9.63721 9.7C10.0991 9.7 10.3878 9.2 10.1568 8.8L6.51952 2.5Z" fill="currentColor"></path></svg>9<!-- -->%</span></p><p class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-secondary leading-5 mt-1">By late July 2026, market expectations for a 25 basis points rate increase in September rose to about 55%, driven by persistent inflation and tensions in the Middle East. This shift in sentiment contributed to the rising probability of the 25 bps increase outcome in the prediction market.</p><div class="flex items-center gap-1.5 mt-3"><a href="https://thegistnotes.com/federal-reserve-faces-crucial-decision-on-interest-rates-amid-inflation-concerns/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" class="flex items-center justify-center rounded-md overflow-hidden bg-white" style="width:28px;height:28px;border:1px solid var(--color-pk-border)" data-state="closed" data-slot="tooltip-trigger"><img src="https://www.google.com/s2/favicons?domain=thegistnotes.com&amp;sz=64" alt="The Gist Notes" referrerPolicy="no-referrer" width="18" height="18" loading="lazy" style="object-fit:contain"/></a></div></div></div><div class="flex gap-3 relative !h-0 !overflow-hidden !p-0 !m-0" style="content-visibility:hidden" inert="" aria-hidden="true"><div class="flex flex-col items-center shrink-0"><div class="w-px h-[7px] bg-pk-border"></div><div class="w-3 h-3 rounded-full border-2 border-pk-gray-300 bg-pk-surface shrink-0"></div><div class="w-px flex-1 bg-pk-border"></div></div><div class="flex-1 pb-8"><span class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary">Jul 27 2026</span><p class="text-body-base font-semibold text-pk-content-primary leading-5 mt-1">Market anticipates 25 bps rate hike in September amid hawkish Fed signals</p><p class="flex items-center gap-1 text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary mt-0.5"><span>25 bps increase<!-- --> <!-- -->jumps to<!-- --> <!-- -->48<!-- -->%</span><span class="inline-flex items-center gap-0.5 font-semibold text-pk-content-accent-green"><svg width="8" height="8" viewBox="0 0 12 12" fill="none" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><path d="M6.51952 2.5C6.28858 2.1 5.71123 2.1 5.48029 2.5L1.84298 8.8C1.61204 9.2 1.90072 9.7 2.3626 9.7L9.63721 9.7C10.0991 9.7 10.3878 9.2 10.1568 8.8L6.51952 2.5Z" fill="currentColor"></path></svg>10<!-- -->%</span></p><p class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-secondary leading-5 mt-1">Investor expectations shifted toward a 55% probability of a 25 bps increase at the September FOMC meeting, driven by hawkish comments from Fed officials and persistent inflation concerns, reflected in rising prices for the 25 bps increase outcome in prediction markets.</p><div class="flex items-center gap-1.5 mt-3"><a href="https://thegistnotes.com/federal-reserve-faces-crucial-decision-on-interest-rates-amid-inflation-concerns/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" class="flex items-center justify-center rounded-md overflow-hidden bg-white" style="width:28px;height:28px;border:1px solid var(--color-pk-border)" data-state="closed" data-slot="tooltip-trigger"><img src="https://www.google.com/s2/favicons?domain=thegistnotes.com&amp;sz=64" alt="The Gist Notes" referrerPolicy="no-referrer" width="18" height="18" loading="lazy" style="object-fit:contain"/></a></div></div></div><div class="flex gap-3 relative !h-0 !overflow-hidden !p-0 !m-0" style="content-visibility:hidden" inert="" aria-hidden="true"><div class="flex flex-col items-center shrink-0"><div class="w-px h-[7px] bg-pk-border"></div><div class="w-3 h-3 rounded-full border-2 border-pk-gray-300 bg-pk-surface shrink-0"></div><div class="w-px flex-1 bg-pk-border"></div></div><div class="flex-1 pb-8"><span class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary">Jul 27 2026</span><p class="text-body-base font-semibold text-pk-content-primary leading-5 mt-1">Rising geopolitical tensions and inflation concerns influence Fed rate hike expectations</p><p class="flex items-center gap-1 text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary mt-0.5"><span>25 bps increase<!-- --> <!-- -->jumps to<!-- --> <!-- -->45<!-- -->%</span><span class="inline-flex items-center gap-0.5 font-semibold text-pk-content-accent-green"><svg width="8" height="8" viewBox="0 0 12 12" fill="none" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><path d="M6.51952 2.5C6.28858 2.1 5.71123 2.1 5.48029 2.5L1.84298 8.8C1.61204 9.2 1.90072 9.7 2.3626 9.7L9.63721 9.7C10.0991 9.7 10.3878 9.2 10.1568 8.8L6.51952 2.5Z" fill="currentColor"></path></svg>9<!-- -->%</span></p><p class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-secondary leading-5 mt-1">Escalating tensions between the U.S. and Iran, along with persistent inflationary pressures, increased market expectations for a 25 basis point rate hike at the September Fed meeting. Analysts noted that the labor market remained resilient, and inflation risks were elevated, prompting investors to price in a higher likelihood of rate increases.</p><div class="flex items-center gap-1.5 mt-3"><a href="https://thegistnotes.com/federal-reserve-faces-crucial-decision-on-interest-rates-amid-inflation-concerns/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" class="flex items-center justify-center rounded-md overflow-hidden bg-white" style="width:28px;height:28px;border:1px solid var(--color-pk-border)" data-state="closed" data-slot="tooltip-trigger"><img src="https://www.google.com/s2/favicons?domain=thegistnotes.com&amp;sz=64" alt="The Gist Notes" referrerPolicy="no-referrer" width="18" height="18" loading="lazy" style="object-fit:contain"/></a></div></div></div><div class="flex gap-3 relative !h-0 !overflow-hidden !p-0 !m-0" style="content-visibility:hidden" inert="" aria-hidden="true"><div class="flex flex-col items-center shrink-0"><div class="w-px h-[7px] bg-pk-border"></div><div class="w-3 h-3 rounded-full border-2 border-pk-gray-300 bg-pk-surface shrink-0"></div><div class="w-px flex-1 bg-pk-border"></div></div><div class="flex-1 pb-8"><span class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary">Jul 27 2026</span><p class="text-body-base font-semibold text-pk-content-primary leading-5 mt-1">Rising market expectations for September Fed rate hike amid inflation and geopolitical tensions</p><p class="flex items-center gap-1 text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary mt-0.5"><span>25 bps increase<!-- --> <!-- -->surges to<!-- --> <!-- -->45<!-- -->%</span><span class="inline-flex items-center gap-0.5 font-semibold text-pk-content-accent-green"><svg width="8" height="8" viewBox="0 0 12 12" fill="none" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><path d="M6.51952 2.5C6.28858 2.1 5.71123 2.1 5.48029 2.5L1.84298 8.8C1.61204 9.2 1.90072 9.7 2.3626 9.7L9.63721 9.7C10.0991 9.7 10.3878 9.2 10.1568 8.8L6.51952 2.5Z" fill="currentColor"></path></svg>21<!-- -->%</span></p><p class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-secondary leading-5 mt-1">By late July, market data indicated a growing probability of a 25 bps rate increase in the September FOMC meeting, driven by persistent inflation pressures and geopolitical risks such as the US-Iran conflict. Analysts highlighted the Fed&#x27;s internal debates and the possibility of tightening monetary policy if inflation remains elevated.</p><div class="flex items-center gap-1.5 mt-3"><a href="https://thegistnotes.com/federal-reserve-faces-crucial-decision-on-interest-rates-amid-inflation-concerns/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" class="flex items-center justify-center rounded-md overflow-hidden bg-white" style="width:28px;height:28px;border:1px solid var(--color-pk-border)" data-state="closed" data-slot="tooltip-trigger"><img src="https://www.google.com/s2/favicons?domain=thegistnotes.com&amp;sz=64" alt="The Gist Notes" referrerPolicy="no-referrer" width="18" height="18" loading="lazy" style="object-fit:contain"/></a></div></div></div><div class="flex gap-3 relative !h-0 !overflow-hidden !p-0 !m-0" style="content-visibility:hidden" inert="" aria-hidden="true"><div class="flex flex-col items-center shrink-0"><div class="w-px h-[7px] bg-pk-border"></div><div class="w-3 h-3 rounded-full border-2 border-pk-gray-300 bg-pk-surface shrink-0"></div><div class="w-px flex-1 bg-pk-border"></div></div><div class="flex-1 pb-8"><span class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary">Jul 27 2026</span><p class="text-body-base font-semibold text-pk-content-primary leading-5 mt-1">Market Pricing Shows 55% Chance of 25 bps Fed Rate Hike in September 2026</p><p class="flex items-center gap-1 text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary mt-0.5"><span>25 bps increase<!-- --> <!-- -->jumps to<!-- --> <!-- -->36<!-- -->%</span><span class="inline-flex items-center gap-0.5 font-semibold text-pk-content-accent-green"><svg width="8" height="8" viewBox="0 0 12 12" fill="none" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><path d="M6.51952 2.5C6.28858 2.1 5.71123 2.1 5.48029 2.5L1.84298 8.8C1.61204 9.2 1.90072 9.7 2.3626 9.7L9.63721 9.7C10.0991 9.7 10.3878 9.2 10.1568 8.8L6.51952 2.5Z" fill="currentColor"></path></svg>8<!-- -->%</span></p><p class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-secondary leading-5 mt-1">As of late July, market data indicated a 55% probability of a 25 basis point rate increase at the September FOMC meeting, reflecting growing investor expectations for tightening monetary policy amid persistent inflation and geopolitical risks. This sentiment influenced the rising price for the 25 bps increase outcome in the prediction market.</p><div class="flex items-center gap-1.5 mt-3"><a href="https://thegistnotes.com/federal-reserve-faces-crucial-decision-on-interest-rates-amid-inflation-concerns/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" class="flex items-center justify-center rounded-md overflow-hidden bg-white" style="width:28px;height:28px;border:1px solid var(--color-pk-border)" data-state="closed" data-slot="tooltip-trigger"><img src="https://www.google.com/s2/favicons?domain=thegistnotes.com&amp;sz=64" alt="The Gist Notes" referrerPolicy="no-referrer" width="18" height="18" loading="lazy" style="object-fit:contain"/></a></div></div></div><div class="flex gap-3 relative !h-0 !overflow-hidden !p-0 !m-0" style="content-visibility:hidden" inert="" aria-hidden="true"><div class="flex flex-col items-center shrink-0"><div class="w-px h-[7px] bg-pk-border"></div><div class="w-3 h-3 rounded-full border-2 border-pk-gray-300 bg-pk-surface shrink-0"></div><div class="w-px flex-1 bg-pk-border"></div></div><div class="flex-1 pb-8"><span class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary">Jul 27 2026</span><p class="text-body-base font-semibold text-pk-content-primary leading-5 mt-1">Market anticipates Fed rate hike in September amid inflation and geopolitical tensions</p><p class="flex items-center gap-1 text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary mt-0.5"><span>25 bps increase<!-- --> <!-- -->jumps to<!-- --> <!-- -->37<!-- -->%</span><span class="inline-flex items-center gap-0.5 font-semibold text-pk-content-accent-green"><svg width="8" height="8" viewBox="0 0 12 12" fill="none" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><path d="M6.51952 2.5C6.28858 2.1 5.71123 2.1 5.48029 2.5L1.84298 8.8C1.61204 9.2 1.90072 9.7 2.3626 9.7L9.63721 9.7C10.0991 9.7 10.3878 9.2 10.1568 8.8L6.51952 2.5Z" fill="currentColor"></path></svg>6<!-- -->%</span></p><p class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-secondary leading-5 mt-1">As the September FOMC meeting approaches, market odds for a 25 bps rate hike increased to around 55%, reflecting concerns over inflation and geopolitical risks. This anticipation was driven by recent economic data and Fed officials&#x27; hawkish comments, impacting market pricing ahead of the meeting.</p><div class="flex items-center gap-1.5 mt-3"><a href="https://thegistnotes.com/federal-reserve-faces-crucial-decision-on-interest-rates-amid-inflation-concerns/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" class="flex items-center justify-center rounded-md overflow-hidden bg-white" style="width:28px;height:28px;border:1px solid var(--color-pk-border)" data-state="closed" data-slot="tooltip-trigger"><img src="https://www.google.com/s2/favicons?domain=thegistnotes.com&amp;sz=64" alt="The Gist Notes" referrerPolicy="no-referrer" width="18" height="18" loading="lazy" style="object-fit:contain"/></a></div></div></div><div class="flex gap-3 relative !h-0 !overflow-hidden !p-0 !m-0" style="content-visibility:hidden" inert="" aria-hidden="true"><div class="flex flex-col items-center shrink-0"><div class="w-px h-[7px] bg-pk-border"></div><div class="w-3 h-3 rounded-full border-2 border-pk-gray-300 bg-pk-surface shrink-0"></div><div class="w-px flex-1 bg-pk-border"></div></div><div class="flex-1 pb-8"><span class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary">Jul 27 2026</span><p class="text-body-base font-semibold text-pk-content-primary leading-5 mt-1">Investors anticipate Fed rate hike in September amid inflation and geopolitical tensions</p><p class="flex items-center gap-1 text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary mt-0.5"><span>25 bps increase<!-- --> <!-- -->jumps to<!-- --> <!-- -->54<!-- -->%</span><span class="inline-flex items-center gap-0.5 font-semibold text-pk-content-accent-green"><svg width="8" height="8" viewBox="0 0 12 12" fill="none" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><path d="M6.51952 2.5C6.28858 2.1 5.71123 2.1 5.48029 2.5L1.84298 8.8C1.61204 9.2 1.90072 9.7 2.3626 9.7L9.63721 9.7C10.0991 9.7 10.3878 9.2 10.1568 8.8L6.51952 2.5Z" fill="currentColor"></path></svg>13<!-- -->%</span></p><p class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-secondary leading-5 mt-1">By late July 2026, investors increasingly expected a 25 bps rate hike at the September FOMC meeting, driven by persistent inflation, energy price volatility from Middle East tensions, and a resilient labor market. Market data showed a 55% chance of a 25 bps increase and 26% chance of a 50+ bps hike, reflecting growing hawkish sentiment.</p><div class="flex items-center gap-1.5 mt-3"><a href="https://thegistnotes.com/federal-reserve-faces-crucial-decision-on-interest-rates-amid-inflation-concerns/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" class="flex items-center justify-center rounded-md overflow-hidden bg-white" style="width:28px;height:28px;border:1px solid var(--color-pk-border)" data-state="closed" data-slot="tooltip-trigger"><img src="https://www.google.com/s2/favicons?domain=thegistnotes.com&amp;sz=64" alt="The Gist Notes" referrerPolicy="no-referrer" width="18" height="18" loading="lazy" style="object-fit:contain"/></a></div></div></div><div class="flex gap-3 relative !h-0 !overflow-hidden !p-0 !m-0" style="content-visibility:hidden" inert="" aria-hidden="true"><div class="flex flex-col items-center shrink-0"><div class="w-px h-[7px] bg-pk-border"></div><div class="w-3 h-3 rounded-full border-2 border-pk-gray-300 bg-pk-surface shrink-0"></div><div class="w-px flex-1 bg-pk-border"></div></div><div class="flex-1 pb-8"><span class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary">Jul 16 2026</span><p class="text-body-base font-semibold text-pk-content-primary leading-5 mt-1">Fed Vice Chair Jefferson Discusses Navigating Economic Shocks Amid Inflation and Geopolitical Risks</p><p class="flex items-center gap-1 text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary mt-0.5"><span>No change<!-- --> <!-- -->dips to<!-- --> <!-- -->43<!-- -->%</span><span class="inline-flex items-center gap-0.5 font-semibold text-pk-content-accent-red"><svg width="8" height="8" viewBox="0 0 12 12" fill="none" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><path d="M6.51952 9.5C6.28858 9.9 5.71123 9.9 5.48029 9.5L1.84298 3.2C1.61204 2.8 1.90072 2.3 2.3626 2.3L9.63721 2.3C10.0991 2.3 10.3878 2.8 10.1568 3.2L6.51952 9.5Z" fill="currentColor"></path></svg>2<!-- -->%</span></p><p class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-secondary leading-5 mt-1">Vice Chair Philip N. Jefferson highlighted the challenges the Fed faces balancing inflation control with economic growth amid ongoing geopolitical tensions and energy price volatility. His remarks underscored the Fed&#x27;s cautious approach and the conditional nature of future rate decisions, influencing market expectations for September.</p><div class="flex items-center gap-1.5 mt-3"><a href="https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents.htm" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" class="flex items-center justify-center rounded-md overflow-hidden bg-white" style="width:28px;height:28px;border:1px solid var(--color-pk-border)" data-state="closed" data-slot="tooltip-trigger"><img src="https://www.google.com/s2/favicons?domain=www.federalreserve.gov&amp;sz=64" alt="Federal Reserve" referrerPolicy="no-referrer" width="18" height="18" loading="lazy" style="object-fit:contain"/></a></div></div></div><div class="flex gap-3 relative !h-0 !overflow-hidden !p-0 !m-0" style="content-visibility:hidden" inert="" aria-hidden="true"><div class="flex flex-col items-center shrink-0"><div class="w-px h-[7px] bg-pk-border"></div><div class="w-3 h-3 rounded-full border-2 border-pk-gray-300 bg-pk-surface shrink-0"></div><div class="w-px flex-1 bg-pk-border"></div></div><div class="flex-1 pb-8"><span class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary">Jul 15 2026</span><p class="text-body-base font-semibold text-pk-content-primary leading-5 mt-1">Governor Lisa D. Cook highlights strong GDP growth and labor productivity</p><p class="flex items-center gap-1 text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary mt-0.5"><span>25 bps increase<!-- --> <!-- -->jumps to<!-- --> <!-- -->49<!-- -->%</span><span class="inline-flex items-center gap-0.5 font-semibold text-pk-content-accent-green"><svg width="8" height="8" viewBox="0 0 12 12" fill="none" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><path d="M6.51952 2.5C6.28858 2.1 5.71123 2.1 5.48029 2.5L1.84298 8.8C1.61204 9.2 1.90072 9.7 2.3626 9.7L9.63721 9.7C10.0991 9.7 10.3878 9.2 10.1568 8.8L6.51952 2.5Z" fill="currentColor"></path></svg>7<!-- -->%</span></p><p class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-secondary leading-5 mt-1">In a speech, Governor Cook reported that GDP growth in 2025 was 2.0% and forecasted 2.2% for 2026, exceeding prior expectations. She emphasized booming labor productivity, reinforcing the Fed&#x27;s view of a resilient economy, supporting the likelihood of a rate hike.</p><div class="flex items-center gap-1.5 mt-3"><a href="https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/cook20260715a.htm" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" class="flex items-center justify-center rounded-md overflow-hidden bg-white" style="width:28px;height:28px;border:1px solid var(--color-pk-border)" data-state="closed" data-slot="tooltip-trigger"><img src="https://www.google.com/s2/favicons?domain=www.federalreserve.gov&amp;sz=64" alt="Federal Reserve Board" referrerPolicy="no-referrer" width="18" height="18" loading="lazy" style="object-fit:contain"/></a></div></div></div><div class="flex gap-3 relative !h-0 !overflow-hidden !p-0 !m-0" style="content-visibility:hidden" inert="" aria-hidden="true"><div class="flex flex-col items-center shrink-0"><div class="w-px h-[7px] bg-pk-border"></div><div class="w-3 h-3 rounded-full border-2 border-pk-gray-300 bg-pk-surface shrink-0"></div><div class="w-px flex-1 bg-pk-border"></div></div><div class="flex-1 pb-8"><span class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary">Jul 15 2026</span><p class="text-body-base font-semibold text-pk-content-primary leading-5 mt-1">Federal Reserve Governor Cook Highlights Economic Resilience and Inflation Challenges</p><p class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-secondary leading-5 mt-1">Governor Cook&#x27;s speech emphasized stronger-than-expected GDP growth forecasts for 2026 and persistent inflation above target, driven by core goods prices and productivity growth. This reinforced market expectations that the Fed would maintain a cautious stance on rates, with potential hikes if inflation remains elevated.</p><div class="flex items-center gap-1.5 mt-3"><a href="https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/cook20260715a.htm" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" class="flex items-center justify-center rounded-md overflow-hidden bg-white" style="width:28px;height:28px;border:1px solid var(--color-pk-border)" data-state="closed" data-slot="tooltip-trigger"><img src="https://www.google.com/s2/favicons?domain=www.federalreserve.gov&amp;sz=64" alt="Federal Reserve" referrerPolicy="no-referrer" width="18" height="18" loading="lazy" style="object-fit:contain"/></a></div></div></div><div class="flex gap-3 relative !h-0 !overflow-hidden !p-0 !m-0" style="content-visibility:hidden" inert="" aria-hidden="true"><div class="flex flex-col items-center shrink-0"><div class="w-px h-[7px] bg-pk-border"></div><div class="w-3 h-3 rounded-full border-2 border-pk-gray-300 bg-pk-surface shrink-0"></div><div class="w-px flex-1 bg-pk-border"></div></div><div class="flex-1 pb-8"><span class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary">Jul 15 2026</span><p class="text-body-base font-semibold text-pk-content-primary leading-5 mt-1">Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook signals inflation risks outweigh employment concerns</p><p class="flex items-center gap-1 text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary mt-0.5"><span>25 bps increase<!-- --> <!-- -->jumps to<!-- --> <!-- -->53<!-- -->%</span><span class="inline-flex items-center gap-0.5 font-semibold text-pk-content-accent-green"><svg width="8" height="8" viewBox="0 0 12 12" fill="none" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><path d="M6.51952 2.5C6.28858 2.1 5.71123 2.1 5.48029 2.5L1.84298 8.8C1.61204 9.2 1.90072 9.7 2.3626 9.7L9.63721 9.7C10.0991 9.7 10.3878 9.2 10.1568 8.8L6.51952 2.5Z" fill="currentColor"></path></svg>8<!-- -->%</span></p><p class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-secondary leading-5 mt-1">In a speech on July 15, Governor Lisa Cook highlighted that inflation remains well above the Fed&#x27;s 2% target and supports maintaining restrictive monetary policy until stronger evidence of sustained disinflation emerges. This hawkish tone contributed to increased market pricing for a 25 bps rate hike.</p><div class="flex items-center gap-1.5 mt-3"><a href="https://www.coingabbar.com/en/crypto-currency-news/federal-reserve-news-inflation-risk-cook-fed-rate-cut-july-2026" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" class="flex items-center justify-center rounded-md overflow-hidden bg-white" style="width:28px;height:28px;border:1px solid var(--color-pk-border)" data-state="closed" data-slot="tooltip-trigger"><img src="https://www.google.com/s2/favicons?domain=www.coingabbar.com&amp;sz=64" alt="Coingabbar" referrerPolicy="no-referrer" width="18" height="18" loading="lazy" style="object-fit:contain"/></a></div></div></div><div class="flex gap-3 relative !h-0 !overflow-hidden !p-0 !m-0" style="content-visibility:hidden" inert="" aria-hidden="true"><div class="flex flex-col items-center shrink-0"><div class="w-px h-[7px] bg-pk-border"></div><div class="w-3 h-3 rounded-full border-2 border-pk-gray-300 bg-pk-surface shrink-0"></div><div class="w-px flex-1 bg-pk-border"></div></div><div class="flex-1 pb-8"><span class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary">Jul 15 2026</span><p class="text-body-base font-semibold text-pk-content-primary leading-5 mt-1">Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh signals hawkish stance amid inflation concerns</p><p class="flex items-center gap-1 text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary mt-0.5"><span>25 bps increase<!-- --> <!-- -->jumps to<!-- --> <!-- -->51<!-- -->%</span><span class="inline-flex items-center gap-0.5 font-semibold text-pk-content-accent-green"><svg width="8" height="8" viewBox="0 0 12 12" fill="none" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><path d="M6.51952 2.5C6.28858 2.1 5.71123 2.1 5.48029 2.5L1.84298 8.8C1.61204 9.2 1.90072 9.7 2.3626 9.7L9.63721 9.7C10.0991 9.7 10.3878 9.2 10.1568 8.8L6.51952 2.5Z" fill="currentColor"></path></svg>12<!-- -->%</span></p><p class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-secondary leading-5 mt-1">Chair Warsh emphasized the Fed&#x27;s commitment to price stability and rejected the idea of a pause in rate changes, reinforcing market expectations for a possible 25 bps rate hike in September. His testimony highlighted inflation risks and geopolitical uncertainties, influencing the rise in market pricing for a September increase.</p><div class="flex items-center gap-1.5 mt-3"><a href="https://polymarket.copilot.markets/event/fed-decision-in-september-762" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" class="flex items-center justify-center rounded-md overflow-hidden bg-white" style="width:28px;height:28px;border:1px solid var(--color-pk-border)" data-state="closed" data-slot="tooltip-trigger"><img src="https://www.google.com/s2/favicons?domain=polymarket.copilot.markets&amp;sz=64" alt="Polymarket" referrerPolicy="no-referrer" width="18" height="18" loading="lazy" style="object-fit:contain"/></a></div></div></div><div class="flex gap-3 relative !h-0 !overflow-hidden !p-0 !m-0" style="content-visibility:hidden" inert="" aria-hidden="true"><div class="flex flex-col items-center shrink-0"><div class="w-px h-[7px] bg-pk-border"></div><div class="w-3 h-3 rounded-full border-2 border-pk-gray-300 bg-pk-surface shrink-0"></div><div class="w-px flex-1 bg-pk-border"></div></div><div class="flex-1 pb-8"><span class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary">Jul 14 2026</span><p class="text-body-base font-semibold text-pk-content-primary leading-5 mt-1">Consumer Price Index shows biggest monthly decline in over six years in June</p><p class="flex items-center gap-1 text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary mt-0.5"><span>25 bps increase<!-- --> <!-- -->jumps to<!-- --> <!-- -->33<!-- -->%</span><span class="inline-flex items-center gap-0.5 font-semibold text-pk-content-accent-green"><svg width="8" height="8" viewBox="0 0 12 12" fill="none" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><path d="M6.51952 2.5C6.28858 2.1 5.71123 2.1 5.48029 2.5L1.84298 8.8C1.61204 9.2 1.90072 9.7 2.3626 9.7L9.63721 9.7C10.0991 9.7 10.3878 9.2 10.1568 8.8L6.51952 2.5Z" fill="currentColor"></path></svg>5<!-- -->%</span></p><p class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-secondary leading-5 mt-1">June&#x27;s CPI report revealed a 0.4% monthly decline, the largest since April 2020, driven by falling energy prices. Annual inflation slowed to 3.5%, easing pressure on the Fed but not enough to prompt immediate rate cuts. This data contributed to market expectations of a possible 25 bps hike in September rather than a cut.</p><div class="flex items-center gap-1.5 mt-3"><a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2026/07/14/consumer-price-index-inflation-report-june-2026.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" class="flex items-center justify-center rounded-md overflow-hidden bg-white" style="width:28px;height:28px;border:1px solid var(--color-pk-border)" data-state="closed" data-slot="tooltip-trigger"><img src="https://www.google.com/s2/favicons?domain=www.cnbc.com&amp;sz=64" alt="CNBC" referrerPolicy="no-referrer" width="18" height="18" loading="lazy" style="object-fit:contain"/></a></div></div></div><div class="flex gap-3 relative !h-0 !overflow-hidden !p-0 !m-0" style="content-visibility:hidden" inert="" aria-hidden="true"><div class="flex flex-col items-center shrink-0"><div class="w-px h-[7px] bg-pk-border"></div><div class="w-3 h-3 rounded-full border-2 border-pk-gray-300 bg-pk-surface shrink-0"></div><div class="w-px flex-1 bg-pk-border"></div></div><div class="flex-1 pb-8"><span class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary">Jul 14 2026</span><p class="text-body-base font-semibold text-pk-content-primary leading-5 mt-1">House Financial Services Committee Hears Fed Chair Warsh Testimony on Monetary Policy</p><p class="flex items-center gap-1 text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary mt-0.5"><span>25 bps increase<!-- --> <!-- -->jumps to<!-- --> <!-- -->51<!-- -->%</span><span class="inline-flex items-center gap-0.5 font-semibold text-pk-content-accent-green"><svg width="8" height="8" viewBox="0 0 12 12" fill="none" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><path d="M6.51952 2.5C6.28858 2.1 5.71123 2.1 5.48029 2.5L1.84298 8.8C1.61204 9.2 1.90072 9.7 2.3626 9.7L9.63721 9.7C10.0991 9.7 10.3878 9.2 10.1568 8.8L6.51952 2.5Z" fill="currentColor"></path></svg>13<!-- -->%</span></p><p class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-secondary leading-5 mt-1">Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh testified before the House Committee on Financial Services, emphasizing the Fed&#x27;s commitment to price stability and signaling a cautious but hawkish stance. This reinforced market expectations for a possible rate hike in September, contributing to the rise in the 25 bps increase contract price.</p><div class="flex items-center gap-1.5 mt-3"><a href="https://www.paulhastings.com/insights/ph-fedaction-financial-regulatory-updates-homepage/daily-financial-regulation-update-wednesday-july-15-2026" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" class="flex items-center justify-center rounded-md overflow-hidden bg-white" style="width:28px;height:28px;border:1px solid var(--color-pk-border)" data-state="closed" data-slot="tooltip-trigger"><img src="https://www.google.com/s2/favicons?domain=www.paulhastings.com&amp;sz=64" alt="Paul Hastings LLP" referrerPolicy="no-referrer" width="18" height="18" loading="lazy" style="object-fit:contain"/></a></div></div></div><div class="flex gap-3 relative !h-0 !overflow-hidden !p-0 !m-0" style="content-visibility:hidden" inert="" aria-hidden="true"><div class="flex flex-col items-center shrink-0"><div class="w-px h-[7px] bg-pk-border"></div><div class="w-3 h-3 rounded-full border-2 border-pk-gray-300 bg-pk-surface shrink-0"></div><div class="w-px flex-1 bg-pk-border"></div></div><div class="flex-1 pb-8"><span class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary">Jul 14 2026</span><p class="text-body-base font-semibold text-pk-content-primary leading-5 mt-1">June 2026 CPI inflation falls to 3.5%, below expectations</p><p class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-secondary leading-5 mt-1">The June 2026 Consumer Price Index showed inflation cooling to 3.5%, driven by a sharp drop in energy prices, providing the Fed some breathing room but leaving uncertainty due to geopolitical risks and core inflation remaining sticky.</p><div class="flex items-center gap-1.5 mt-3"><a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2026/07/14/consumer-price-index-inflation-report-june-2026.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" class="flex items-center justify-center rounded-md overflow-hidden bg-white" style="width:28px;height:28px;border:1px solid var(--color-pk-border)" data-state="closed" data-slot="tooltip-trigger"><img src="https://www.google.com/s2/favicons?domain=www.cnbc.com&amp;sz=64" alt="CNBC" referrerPolicy="no-referrer" width="18" height="18" loading="lazy" style="object-fit:contain"/></a></div></div></div><div class="flex gap-3 relative !h-0 !overflow-hidden !p-0 !m-0" style="content-visibility:hidden" inert="" aria-hidden="true"><div class="flex flex-col items-center shrink-0"><div class="w-px h-[7px] bg-pk-border"></div><div class="w-3 h-3 rounded-full border-2 border-pk-gray-300 bg-pk-surface shrink-0"></div><div class="w-px flex-1 bg-pk-border"></div></div><div class="flex-1 pb-8"><span class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary">Jul 14 2026</span><p class="text-body-base font-semibold text-pk-content-primary leading-5 mt-1">Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh Signals Hawkish Stance in July Speeches</p><p class="flex items-center gap-1 text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary mt-0.5"><span>25 bps increase<!-- --> <!-- -->surges to<!-- --> <!-- -->38<!-- -->%</span><span class="inline-flex items-center gap-0.5 font-semibold text-pk-content-accent-green"><svg width="8" height="8" viewBox="0 0 12 12" fill="none" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><path d="M6.51952 2.5C6.28858 2.1 5.71123 2.1 5.48029 2.5L1.84298 8.8C1.61204 9.2 1.90072 9.7 2.3626 9.7L9.63721 9.7C10.0991 9.7 10.3878 9.2 10.1568 8.8L6.51952 2.5Z" fill="currentColor"></path></svg>22<!-- -->%</span></p><p class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-secondary leading-5 mt-1">In speeches during July 2026, Chair Warsh emphasized the Fed&#x27;s focus on price stability and the challenges posed by inflation and geopolitical risks, contributing to market expectations of a possible rate hike in September.</p><div class="flex items-center gap-1.5 mt-3"><a href="https://www.paulhastings.com/insights/ph-fedaction-financial-regulatory-updates-homepage/daily-financial-regulation-update-wednesday-july-15-2026" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" class="flex items-center justify-center rounded-md overflow-hidden bg-white" style="width:28px;height:28px;border:1px solid var(--color-pk-border)" data-state="closed" data-slot="tooltip-trigger"><img src="https://www.google.com/s2/favicons?domain=www.paulhastings.com&amp;sz=64" alt="Paul Hastings LLP" referrerPolicy="no-referrer" width="18" height="18" loading="lazy" style="object-fit:contain"/></a></div></div></div><div class="flex gap-3 relative !h-0 !overflow-hidden !p-0 !m-0" style="content-visibility:hidden" inert="" aria-hidden="true"><div class="flex flex-col items-center shrink-0"><div class="w-px h-[7px] bg-pk-border"></div><div class="w-3 h-3 rounded-full border-2 border-pk-gray-300 bg-pk-surface shrink-0"></div><div class="w-px flex-1 bg-pk-border"></div></div><div class="flex-1 pb-8"><span class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary">Jul 14 2026</span><p class="text-body-base font-semibold text-pk-content-primary leading-5 mt-1">Fed Chair Kevin Warsh testifies before House Financial Services Committee</p><p class="flex items-center gap-1 text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary mt-0.5"><span>25 bps increase<!-- --> <!-- -->jumps to<!-- --> <!-- -->49<!-- -->%</span><span class="inline-flex items-center gap-0.5 font-semibold text-pk-content-accent-green"><svg width="8" height="8" viewBox="0 0 12 12" fill="none" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><path d="M6.51952 2.5C6.28858 2.1 5.71123 2.1 5.48029 2.5L1.84298 8.8C1.61204 9.2 1.90072 9.7 2.3626 9.7L9.63721 9.7C10.0991 9.7 10.3878 9.2 10.1568 8.8L6.51952 2.5Z" fill="currentColor"></path></svg>13<!-- -->%</span></p><p class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-secondary leading-5 mt-1">Kevin Warsh testified emphasizing the Fed&#x27;s commitment to price stability and signaling that interest rate hikes may be necessary if inflation does not cool. This reinforced market expectations for a 25 bps increase in the near future, contributing to rising probabilities for a rate hike in September.</p><div class="flex items-center gap-1.5 mt-3"><a href="https://www.paulhastings.com/insights/ph-fedaction-financial-regulatory-updates-homepage/daily-financial-regulation-update-wednesday-july-15-2026" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" class="flex items-center justify-center rounded-md overflow-hidden bg-white" style="width:28px;height:28px;border:1px solid var(--color-pk-border)" data-state="closed" data-slot="tooltip-trigger"><img src="https://www.google.com/s2/favicons?domain=www.paulhastings.com&amp;sz=64" alt="Paul Hastings LLP" referrerPolicy="no-referrer" width="18" height="18" loading="lazy" style="object-fit:contain"/></a></div></div></div><div class="flex gap-3 relative !h-0 !overflow-hidden !p-0 !m-0" style="content-visibility:hidden" inert="" aria-hidden="true"><div class="flex flex-col items-center shrink-0"><div class="w-px h-[7px] bg-pk-border"></div><div class="w-3 h-3 rounded-full border-2 border-pk-gray-300 bg-pk-surface shrink-0"></div><div class="w-px flex-1 bg-pk-border"></div></div><div class="flex-1 pb-8"><span class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary">Jul 14 2026</span><p class="text-body-base font-semibold text-pk-content-primary leading-5 mt-1">June CPI Inflation Falls to 3.5%, Below Forecast</p><p class="flex items-center gap-1 text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary mt-0.5"><span>No change<!-- --> <!-- -->dips to<!-- --> <!-- -->39<!-- -->%</span><span class="inline-flex items-center gap-0.5 font-semibold text-pk-content-accent-red"><svg width="8" height="8" viewBox="0 0 12 12" fill="none" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><path d="M6.51952 9.5C6.28858 9.9 5.71123 9.9 5.48029 9.5L1.84298 3.2C1.61204 2.8 1.90072 2.3 2.3626 2.3L9.63721 2.3C10.0991 2.3 10.3878 2.8 10.1568 3.2L6.51952 9.5Z" fill="currentColor"></path></svg>2<!-- -->%</span></p><p class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-secondary leading-5 mt-1">The Consumer Price Index for June 2026 showed a decline in inflation to 3.5%, below expectations, but core shelter inflation remained elevated. This data was closely watched ahead of the July FOMC meeting and influenced market expectations for the Fed&#x27;s rate decision.</p><div class="flex items-center gap-1.5 mt-3"><a href="https://www.financecalendar.com/event/us-cpi-report-july-2026/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" class="flex items-center justify-center rounded-md overflow-hidden bg-white" style="width:28px;height:28px;border:1px solid var(--color-pk-border)" data-state="closed" data-slot="tooltip-trigger"><img src="https://www.google.com/s2/favicons?domain=www.financecalendar.com&amp;sz=64" alt="Finance Calendar" referrerPolicy="no-referrer" width="18" height="18" loading="lazy" style="object-fit:contain"/></a></div></div></div><div class="flex gap-3 relative !h-0 !overflow-hidden !p-0 !m-0" style="content-visibility:hidden" inert="" aria-hidden="true"><div class="flex flex-col items-center shrink-0"><div class="w-px h-[7px] bg-pk-border"></div><div class="w-3 h-3 rounded-full border-2 border-pk-gray-300 bg-pk-surface shrink-0"></div><div class="w-px flex-1 bg-pk-border"></div></div><div class="flex-1 pb-8"><span class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary">Jul 14 2026</span><p class="text-body-base font-semibold text-pk-content-primary leading-5 mt-1">Fed Officials Deliver Speeches Highlighting Inflation Persistence and Economic Outlook</p><p class="flex items-center gap-1 text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary mt-0.5"><span>25 bps increase<!-- --> <!-- -->rises to<!-- --> <!-- -->39<!-- -->%</span><span class="inline-flex items-center gap-0.5 font-semibold text-pk-content-accent-green"><svg width="8" height="8" viewBox="0 0 12 12" fill="none" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><path d="M6.51952 2.5C6.28858 2.1 5.71123 2.1 5.48029 2.5L1.84298 8.8C1.61204 9.2 1.90072 9.7 2.3626 9.7L9.63721 9.7C10.0991 9.7 10.3878 9.2 10.1568 8.8L6.51952 2.5Z" fill="currentColor"></path></svg>2<!-- -->%</span></p><p class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-secondary leading-5 mt-1">Several Federal Reserve officials, including Vice Chair Michelle Bowman and Governor Michael Barr, gave speeches emphasizing the challenges of persistent inflation and the Fed&#x27;s commitment to price stability. These communications reinforced market expectations for a cautious approach, supporting the probability of a rate hike later in 2026.</p><div class="flex items-center gap-1.5 mt-3"><a href="https://www.paulhastings.com/insights/ph-fedaction-financial-regulatory-updates-homepage/daily-financial-regulation-update-wednesday-july-15-2026" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" class="flex items-center justify-center rounded-md overflow-hidden bg-white" style="width:28px;height:28px;border:1px solid var(--color-pk-border)" data-state="closed" data-slot="tooltip-trigger"><img src="https://www.google.com/s2/favicons?domain=www.paulhastings.com&amp;sz=64" alt="Paul Hastings LLP" referrerPolicy="no-referrer" width="18" height="18" loading="lazy" style="object-fit:contain"/></a></div></div></div><div class="flex gap-3 relative !h-0 !overflow-hidden !p-0 !m-0" style="content-visibility:hidden" inert="" aria-hidden="true"><div class="flex flex-col items-center shrink-0"><div class="w-px h-[7px] bg-pk-border"></div><div class="w-3 h-3 rounded-full border-2 border-pk-gray-300 bg-pk-surface shrink-0"></div><div class="w-px flex-1 bg-pk-border"></div></div><div class="flex-1 pb-8"><span class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary">Jul 14 2026</span><p class="text-body-base font-semibold text-pk-content-primary leading-5 mt-1">June CPI Data Shows Inflation Remains Elevated at 3.4% Annual Rate</p><p class="flex items-center gap-1 text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary mt-0.5"><span>25 bps increase<!-- --> <!-- -->surges to<!-- --> <!-- -->38<!-- -->%</span><span class="inline-flex items-center gap-0.5 font-semibold text-pk-content-accent-green"><svg width="8" height="8" viewBox="0 0 12 12" fill="none" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><path d="M6.51952 2.5C6.28858 2.1 5.71123 2.1 5.48029 2.5L1.84298 8.8C1.61204 9.2 1.90072 9.7 2.3626 9.7L9.63721 9.7C10.0991 9.7 10.3878 9.2 10.1568 8.8L6.51952 2.5Z" fill="currentColor"></path></svg>22<!-- -->%</span></p><p class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-secondary leading-5 mt-1">The Consumer Price Index for June 2026 indicated inflation at 3.4% annually, slightly down from May but still above the Fed&#x27;s 2% target, reinforcing expectations for continued vigilance on inflation and potential rate hikes.</p><div class="flex items-center gap-1.5 mt-3"><a href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/tylerroush/2026/07/30/feds-benchmark-inflation-measure-cooled-last-month-but-us-economy-slowed-in-second-quarter/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" class="flex items-center justify-center rounded-md overflow-hidden bg-white" style="width:28px;height:28px;border:1px solid var(--color-pk-border)" data-state="closed" data-slot="tooltip-trigger"><img src="https://www.google.com/s2/favicons?domain=www.forbes.com&amp;sz=64" alt="Forbes" referrerPolicy="no-referrer" width="18" height="18" loading="lazy" style="object-fit:contain"/></a></div></div></div><div class="flex gap-3 relative !h-0 !overflow-hidden !p-0 !m-0" style="content-visibility:hidden" inert="" aria-hidden="true"><div class="flex flex-col items-center shrink-0"><div class="w-px h-[7px] bg-pk-border"></div><div class="w-3 h-3 rounded-full border-2 border-pk-gray-300 bg-pk-surface shrink-0"></div><div class="w-px flex-1 bg-pk-border"></div></div><div class="flex-1 pb-8"><span class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary">Jul 14 2026</span><p class="text-body-base font-semibold text-pk-content-primary leading-5 mt-1">June CPI report shows inflation falls to 3.5%, but core shelter inflation remains elevated</p><p class="flex items-center gap-1 text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary mt-0.5"><span>No change<!-- --> <!-- -->dips to<!-- --> <!-- -->59<!-- -->%</span><span class="inline-flex items-center gap-0.5 font-semibold text-pk-content-accent-red"><svg width="8" height="8" viewBox="0 0 12 12" fill="none" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><path d="M6.51952 9.5C6.28858 9.9 5.71123 9.9 5.48029 9.5L1.84298 3.2C1.61204 2.8 1.90072 2.3 2.3626 2.3L9.63721 2.3C10.0991 2.3 10.3878 2.8 10.1568 3.2L6.51952 9.5Z" fill="currentColor"></path></svg>2<!-- -->%</span></p><p class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-secondary leading-5 mt-1">The July 14 release of June CPI data showed a decline in headline inflation to 3.5%, below forecasts, but core shelter inflation stayed high, indicating ongoing inflationary pressures that support the Fed&#x27;s cautious stance on rate changes.</p><div class="flex items-center gap-1.5 mt-3"><a href="https://www.financecalendar.com/event/us-cpi-report-july-2026/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" class="flex items-center justify-center rounded-md overflow-hidden bg-white" style="width:28px;height:28px;border:1px solid var(--color-pk-border)" data-state="closed" data-slot="tooltip-trigger"><img src="https://www.google.com/s2/favicons?domain=www.financecalendar.com&amp;sz=64" alt="Finance Calendar" referrerPolicy="no-referrer" width="18" height="18" loading="lazy" style="object-fit:contain"/></a></div></div></div><div class="flex gap-3 relative !h-0 !overflow-hidden !p-0 !m-0" style="content-visibility:hidden" inert="" aria-hidden="true"><div class="flex flex-col items-center shrink-0"><div class="w-px h-[7px] bg-pk-border"></div><div class="w-3 h-3 rounded-full border-2 border-pk-gray-300 bg-pk-surface shrink-0"></div><div class="w-px flex-1 bg-pk-border"></div></div><div class="flex-1 pb-8"><span class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary">Jul 14 2026</span><p class="text-body-base font-semibold text-pk-content-primary leading-5 mt-1">Chairman Warsh Presents Semiannual Monetary Policy Report to Congress</p><p class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-secondary leading-5 mt-1">Chairman Kevin Warsh presented the semiannual Monetary Policy Report outlining the Fed&#x27;s cautious stance on inflation and economic conditions. The report reinforced market expectations of steady or slightly higher rates, supporting the increased probability of a 25 bps hike in September.</p><div class="flex items-center gap-1.5 mt-3"><a href="https://coinfomania.com/chairman-warsh-reveals-key-insights-from-monetary-policy-report/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" class="flex items-center justify-center rounded-md overflow-hidden bg-white" style="width:28px;height:28px;border:1px solid var(--color-pk-border)" data-state="closed" data-slot="tooltip-trigger"><img src="https://www.google.com/s2/favicons?domain=coinfomania.com&amp;sz=64" alt="Coinfomania" referrerPolicy="no-referrer" width="18" height="18" loading="lazy" style="object-fit:contain"/></a></div></div></div><div class="flex gap-3 relative !h-0 !overflow-hidden !p-0 !m-0" style="content-visibility:hidden" inert="" aria-hidden="true"><div class="flex flex-col items-center shrink-0"><div class="w-px h-[7px] bg-pk-border"></div><div class="w-3 h-3 rounded-full border-2 border-pk-gray-300 bg-pk-surface shrink-0"></div><div class="w-px flex-1 bg-pk-border"></div></div><div class="flex-1 pb-8"><span class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary">Jul 14 2026</span><p class="text-body-base font-semibold text-pk-content-primary leading-5 mt-1">Chairman Kevin Warsh presents semiannual Monetary Policy Report to Congress</p><p class="flex items-center gap-1 text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary mt-0.5"><span>25 bps increase<!-- --> <!-- -->surges to<!-- --> <!-- -->51<!-- -->%</span><span class="inline-flex items-center gap-0.5 font-semibold text-pk-content-accent-green"><svg width="8" height="8" viewBox="0 0 12 12" fill="none" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><path d="M6.51952 2.5C6.28858 2.1 5.71123 2.1 5.48029 2.5L1.84298 8.8C1.61204 9.2 1.90072 9.7 2.3626 9.7L9.63721 9.7C10.0991 9.7 10.3878 9.2 10.1568 8.8L6.51952 2.5Z" fill="currentColor"></path></svg>15<!-- -->%</span></p><p class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-secondary leading-5 mt-1">Chairman Warsh&#x27;s report underscored the Fed&#x27;s commitment to price stability and maximum employment, signaling a hawkish stance that influenced market pricing toward a September rate increase.</p><div class="flex items-center gap-1.5 mt-3"><a href="https://coinfomania.com/chairman-warsh-reveals-key-insights-from-monetary-policy-report/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" class="flex items-center justify-center rounded-md overflow-hidden bg-white" style="width:28px;height:28px;border:1px solid var(--color-pk-border)" data-state="closed" data-slot="tooltip-trigger"><img src="https://www.google.com/s2/favicons?domain=coinfomania.com&amp;sz=64" alt="Coinfomania" referrerPolicy="no-referrer" width="18" height="18" loading="lazy" style="object-fit:contain"/></a></div></div></div><div class="flex gap-3 relative !h-0 !overflow-hidden !p-0 !m-0" style="content-visibility:hidden" inert="" aria-hidden="true"><div class="flex flex-col items-center shrink-0"><div class="w-px h-[7px] bg-pk-border"></div><div class="w-3 h-3 rounded-full border-2 border-pk-gray-300 bg-pk-surface shrink-0"></div><div class="w-px flex-1 bg-pk-border"></div></div><div class="flex-1 pb-8"><span class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary">Jul 13 2026</span><p class="text-body-base font-semibold text-pk-content-primary leading-5 mt-1">Governor Cook warns inflation remains above expectations for 2026</p><p class="flex items-center gap-1 text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary mt-0.5"><span>25 bps increase<!-- --> <!-- -->surges to<!-- --> <!-- -->53<!-- -->%</span><span class="inline-flex items-center gap-0.5 font-semibold text-pk-content-accent-green"><svg width="8" height="8" viewBox="0 0 12 12" fill="none" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><path d="M6.51952 2.5C6.28858 2.1 5.71123 2.1 5.48029 2.5L1.84298 8.8C1.61204 9.2 1.90072 9.7 2.3626 9.7L9.63721 9.7C10.0991 9.7 10.3878 9.2 10.1568 8.8L6.51952 2.5Z" fill="currentColor"></path></svg>28<!-- -->%</span></p><p class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-secondary leading-5 mt-1">Governor Lisa Cook highlighted that headline and core inflation for 2026 are running about 1 percentage point higher than expected, driven by core goods prices rising at a 5% annual pace, reinforcing the Fed&#x27;s hawkish stance and market anticipation of a rate hike.</p><div class="flex items-center gap-1.5 mt-3"><a href="https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/cook20260715a.htm" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" class="flex items-center justify-center rounded-md overflow-hidden bg-white" style="width:28px;height:28px;border:1px solid var(--color-pk-border)" data-state="closed" data-slot="tooltip-trigger"><img src="https://www.google.com/s2/favicons?domain=www.federalreserve.gov&amp;sz=64" alt="Federal Reserve" referrerPolicy="no-referrer" width="18" height="18" loading="lazy" style="object-fit:contain"/></a></div></div></div><div class="flex gap-3 relative !h-0 !overflow-hidden !p-0 !m-0" style="content-visibility:hidden" inert="" aria-hidden="true"><div class="flex flex-col items-center shrink-0"><div class="w-px h-[7px] bg-pk-border"></div><div class="w-3 h-3 rounded-full border-2 border-pk-gray-300 bg-pk-surface shrink-0"></div><div class="w-px flex-1 bg-pk-border"></div></div><div class="flex-1 pb-8"><span class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary">Jul 13 2026</span><p class="text-body-base font-semibold text-pk-content-primary leading-5 mt-1">Speech by Governor Cook emphasizes resilient economic growth and inflation outlook</p><p class="flex items-center gap-1 text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary mt-0.5"><span>No change<!-- --> <!-- -->rises to<!-- --> <!-- -->59<!-- -->%</span><span class="inline-flex items-center gap-0.5 font-semibold text-pk-content-accent-green"><svg width="8" height="8" viewBox="0 0 12 12" fill="none" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><path d="M6.51952 2.5C6.28858 2.1 5.71123 2.1 5.48029 2.5L1.84298 8.8C1.61204 9.2 1.90072 9.7 2.3626 9.7L9.63721 9.7C10.0991 9.7 10.3878 9.2 10.1568 8.8L6.51952 2.5Z" fill="currentColor"></path></svg>2<!-- -->%</span></p><p class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-secondary leading-5 mt-1">Governor Cook highlighted stronger-than-expected GDP growth and inflation forecasts, reinforcing expectations that the Fed would maintain or cautiously adjust rates, influencing market sentiment toward no change or a modest hike.</p><div class="flex items-center gap-1.5 mt-3"><a href="https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/cook20260715a.htm" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" class="flex items-center justify-center rounded-md overflow-hidden bg-white" style="width:28px;height:28px;border:1px solid var(--color-pk-border)" data-state="closed" data-slot="tooltip-trigger"><img src="https://www.google.com/s2/favicons?domain=www.federalreserve.gov&amp;sz=64" alt="Federal Reserve Board" referrerPolicy="no-referrer" width="18" height="18" loading="lazy" style="object-fit:contain"/></a></div></div></div><div class="flex gap-3 relative !h-0 !overflow-hidden !p-0 !m-0" style="content-visibility:hidden" inert="" aria-hidden="true"><div class="flex flex-col items-center shrink-0"><div class="w-px h-[7px] bg-pk-border"></div><div class="w-3 h-3 rounded-full border-2 border-pk-gray-300 bg-pk-surface shrink-0"></div><div class="w-px flex-1 bg-pk-border"></div></div><div class="flex-1 pb-8"><span class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary">Jul 13 2026</span><p class="text-body-base font-semibold text-pk-content-primary leading-5 mt-1">Federal Reserve Officials Deliver Hawkish Speeches Highlighting Inflation Risks</p><p class="flex items-center gap-1 text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary mt-0.5"><span>25 bps increase<!-- --> <!-- -->jumps to<!-- --> <!-- -->51<!-- -->%</span><span class="inline-flex items-center gap-0.5 font-semibold text-pk-content-accent-green"><svg width="8" height="8" viewBox="0 0 12 12" fill="none" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><path d="M6.51952 2.5C6.28858 2.1 5.71123 2.1 5.48029 2.5L1.84298 8.8C1.61204 9.2 1.90072 9.7 2.3626 9.7L9.63721 9.7C10.0991 9.7 10.3878 9.2 10.1568 8.8L6.51952 2.5Z" fill="currentColor"></path></svg>13<!-- -->%</span></p><p class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-secondary leading-5 mt-1">Federal Reserve Board Governor Christopher J. Waller and Vice Chair Michelle W. Bowman gave speeches emphasizing persistent inflation risks and the need for cautious monetary policy. These remarks contributed to market expectations of a potential rate hike later in 2026, increasing the probability of a 25 bps increase in September.</p><div class="flex items-center gap-1.5 mt-3"><a href="https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/waller20260713a.htm" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" class="flex items-center justify-center rounded-md overflow-hidden bg-white" style="width:28px;height:28px;border:1px solid var(--color-pk-border)" data-state="closed" data-slot="tooltip-trigger"><img src="https://www.google.com/s2/favicons?domain=www.federalreserve.gov&amp;sz=64" alt="Federal Reserve Board" referrerPolicy="no-referrer" width="18" height="18" loading="lazy" style="object-fit:contain"/></a><a href="https://www.paulhastings.com/insights/ph-fedaction-financial-regulatory-updates-homepage/daily-financial-regulation-update-tuesday-july-14-2026" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" class="flex items-center justify-center rounded-md overflow-hidden bg-white" style="width:28px;height:28px;border:1px solid var(--color-pk-border)" data-state="closed" data-slot="tooltip-trigger"><img src="https://www.google.com/s2/favicons?domain=www.paulhastings.com&amp;sz=64" alt="Paul Hastings LLP" referrerPolicy="no-referrer" width="18" height="18" loading="lazy" style="object-fit:contain"/></a></div></div></div><div class="flex gap-3 relative !h-0 !overflow-hidden !p-0 !m-0" style="content-visibility:hidden" inert="" aria-hidden="true"><div class="flex flex-col items-center shrink-0"><div class="w-px h-[7px] bg-pk-border"></div><div class="w-3 h-3 rounded-full border-2 border-pk-gray-300 bg-pk-surface shrink-0"></div><div class="w-px flex-1 bg-pk-border"></div></div><div class="flex-1 pb-8"><span class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary">Jul 9 2026</span><p class="text-body-base font-semibold text-pk-content-primary leading-5 mt-1">Federal Reserve announces task forces to advance monetary policy conduct</p><p class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-secondary leading-5 mt-1">The Federal Reserve announced five task forces led by external advisers to examine key areas of monetary policy conduct. This initiative signaled a commitment to rigorous policy review and potential future adjustments, contributing to market anticipation of possible rate changes later in 2026.</p><div class="flex items-center gap-1.5 mt-3"><a href="https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20260709a.htm" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" class="flex items-center justify-center rounded-md overflow-hidden bg-white" style="width:28px;height:28px;border:1px solid var(--color-pk-border)" data-state="closed" data-slot="tooltip-trigger"><img src="https://www.google.com/s2/favicons?domain=www.federalreserve.gov&amp;sz=64" alt="Federal Reserve Board" referrerPolicy="no-referrer" width="18" height="18" loading="lazy" style="object-fit:contain"/></a></div></div></div><div class="flex gap-3 relative !h-0 !overflow-hidden !p-0 !m-0" style="content-visibility:hidden" inert="" aria-hidden="true"><div class="flex flex-col items-center shrink-0"><div class="w-px h-[7px] bg-pk-border"></div><div class="w-3 h-3 rounded-full border-2 border-pk-gray-300 bg-pk-surface shrink-0"></div><div class="w-px flex-1 bg-pk-border"></div></div><div class="flex-1 pb-8"><span class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary">Jul 7 2026</span><p class="text-body-base font-semibold text-pk-content-primary leading-5 mt-1">Markets anticipate imminent Fed rate hike amid persistent inflation and Warsh&#x27;s hawkish signals</p><p class="flex items-center gap-1 text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary mt-0.5"><span>25 bps increase<!-- --> <!-- -->jumps to<!-- --> <!-- -->37<!-- -->%</span><span class="inline-flex items-center gap-0.5 font-semibold text-pk-content-accent-green"><svg width="8" height="8" viewBox="0 0 12 12" fill="none" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><path d="M6.51952 2.5C6.28858 2.1 5.71123 2.1 5.48029 2.5L1.84298 8.8C1.61204 9.2 1.90072 9.7 2.3626 9.7L9.63721 9.7C10.0991 9.7 10.3878 9.2 10.1568 8.8L6.51952 2.5Z" fill="currentColor"></path></svg>12<!-- -->%</span></p><p class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-secondary leading-5 mt-1">Following the July CPI report and Fed Chair Warsh&#x27;s press conference, markets increasingly priced in a 25 bps rate hike in September due to ongoing inflation above target and the Fed&#x27;s commitment to price stability. Treasury yields rose sharply reflecting these expectations.</p><div class="flex items-center gap-1.5 mt-3"><a href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/simonmoore/2026/07/07/rate-hike-may-come-soon-on-market-estimates/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" class="flex items-center justify-center rounded-md overflow-hidden bg-white" style="width:28px;height:28px;border:1px solid var(--color-pk-border)" data-state="closed" data-slot="tooltip-trigger"><img src="https://www.google.com/s2/favicons?domain=www.forbes.com&amp;sz=64" alt="Forbes" referrerPolicy="no-referrer" width="18" height="18" loading="lazy" style="object-fit:contain"/></a></div></div></div><div class="flex gap-3 relative !h-0 !overflow-hidden !p-0 !m-0" style="content-visibility:hidden" inert="" aria-hidden="true"><div class="flex flex-col items-center shrink-0"><div class="w-px h-[7px] bg-pk-border"></div><div class="w-3 h-3 rounded-full border-2 border-pk-gray-300 bg-pk-surface shrink-0"></div><div class="w-px flex-1 bg-pk-border"></div></div><div class="flex-1 pb-8"><span class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary">Jul 7 2026</span><p class="text-body-base font-semibold text-pk-content-primary leading-5 mt-1">Market anticipates imminent rate hike following hawkish FOMC June statement</p><p class="flex items-center gap-1 text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary mt-0.5"><span>25 bps increase<!-- --> <!-- -->surges to<!-- --> <!-- -->40<!-- -->%</span><span class="inline-flex items-center gap-0.5 font-semibold text-pk-content-accent-green"><svg width="8" height="8" viewBox="0 0 12 12" fill="none" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><path d="M6.51952 2.5C6.28858 2.1 5.71123 2.1 5.48029 2.5L1.84298 8.8C1.61204 9.2 1.90072 9.7 2.3626 9.7L9.63721 9.7C10.0991 9.7 10.3878 9.2 10.1568 8.8L6.51952 2.5Z" fill="currentColor"></path></svg>24<!-- -->%</span></p><p class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-secondary leading-5 mt-1">Following the June FOMC statement emphasizing price stability and persistent inflation, markets began pricing in a high probability of a rate increase by September, reflecting uncertainty about the magnitude and timing of hikes.</p><div class="flex items-center gap-1.5 mt-3"><a href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/simonmoore/2026/07/07/rate-hike-may-come-soon-on-market-estimates/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" class="flex items-center justify-center rounded-md overflow-hidden bg-white" style="width:28px;height:28px;border:1px solid var(--color-pk-border)" data-state="closed" data-slot="tooltip-trigger"><img src="https://www.google.com/s2/favicons?domain=www.forbes.com&amp;sz=64" alt="Forbes" referrerPolicy="no-referrer" width="18" height="18" loading="lazy" style="object-fit:contain"/></a></div></div></div><div class="flex gap-3 relative !h-0 !overflow-hidden !p-0 !m-0" style="content-visibility:hidden" inert="" aria-hidden="true"><div class="flex flex-col items-center shrink-0"><div class="w-px h-[7px] bg-pk-border"></div><div class="w-3 h-3 rounded-full border-2 border-pk-gray-300 bg-pk-surface shrink-0"></div><div class="w-px flex-1 bg-pk-border"></div></div><div class="flex-1 pb-8"><span class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary">Jul 7 2026</span><p class="text-body-base font-semibold text-pk-content-primary leading-5 mt-1">Market speculation rises on possible Fed rate hike amid inflation concerns</p><p class="flex items-center gap-1 text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary mt-0.5"><span>25 bps increase<!-- --> <!-- -->surges to<!-- --> <!-- -->38<!-- -->%</span><span class="inline-flex items-center gap-0.5 font-semibold text-pk-content-accent-green"><svg width="8" height="8" viewBox="0 0 12 12" fill="none" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><path d="M6.51952 2.5C6.28858 2.1 5.71123 2.1 5.48029 2.5L1.84298 8.8C1.61204 9.2 1.90072 9.7 2.3626 9.7L9.63721 9.7C10.0991 9.7 10.3878 9.2 10.1568 8.8L6.51952 2.5Z" fill="currentColor"></path></svg>23<!-- -->%</span></p><p class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-secondary leading-5 mt-1">Following hotter inflation data and hawkish Fed tone, markets increased expectations for a rate hike by September, reflecting uncertainty about inflation trajectory and Fed policy.</p><div class="flex items-center gap-1.5 mt-3"><a href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/simonmoore/2026/07/07/rate-hike-may-come-soon-on-market-estimates/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" class="flex items-center justify-center rounded-md overflow-hidden bg-white" style="width:28px;height:28px;border:1px solid var(--color-pk-border)" data-state="closed" data-slot="tooltip-trigger"><img src="https://www.google.com/s2/favicons?domain=www.forbes.com&amp;sz=64" alt="Forbes" referrerPolicy="no-referrer" width="18" height="18" loading="lazy" style="object-fit:contain"/></a></div></div></div><div class="flex gap-3 relative !h-0 !overflow-hidden !p-0 !m-0" style="content-visibility:hidden" inert="" aria-hidden="true"><div class="flex flex-col items-center shrink-0"><div class="w-px h-[7px] bg-pk-border"></div><div class="w-3 h-3 rounded-full border-2 border-pk-gray-300 bg-pk-surface shrink-0"></div><div class="w-px flex-1 bg-pk-border"></div></div><div class="flex-1 pb-8"><span class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary">Jul 7 2026</span><p class="text-body-base font-semibold text-pk-content-primary leading-5 mt-1">Market Analysts Highlight Increased Probability of September Rate Hike</p><p class="flex items-center gap-1 text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary mt-0.5"><span>25 bps increase<!-- --> <!-- -->surges to<!-- --> <!-- -->54<!-- -->%</span><span class="inline-flex items-center gap-0.5 font-semibold text-pk-content-accent-green"><svg width="8" height="8" viewBox="0 0 12 12" fill="none" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><path d="M6.51952 2.5C6.28858 2.1 5.71123 2.1 5.48029 2.5L1.84298 8.8C1.61204 9.2 1.90072 9.7 2.3626 9.7L9.63721 9.7C10.0991 9.7 10.3878 9.2 10.1568 8.8L6.51952 2.5Z" fill="currentColor"></path></svg>23<!-- -->%</span></p><p class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-secondary leading-5 mt-1">Market commentary in early July emphasized a growing consensus that the Federal Reserve would likely raise interest rates in September due to persistent inflation and strong labor market data. This contributed to a significant increase in the market pricing for a 25 bps rate hike and a decline in expectations for no change or rate cuts.</p><div class="flex items-center gap-1.5 mt-3"><a href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/simonmoore/2026/07/07/rate-hike-may-come-soon-on-market-estimates/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" class="flex items-center justify-center rounded-md overflow-hidden bg-white" style="width:28px;height:28px;border:1px solid var(--color-pk-border)" data-state="closed" data-slot="tooltip-trigger"><img src="https://www.google.com/s2/favicons?domain=www.forbes.com&amp;sz=64" alt="Forbes" referrerPolicy="no-referrer" width="18" height="18" loading="lazy" style="object-fit:contain"/></a></div></div></div><div class="flex gap-3 relative !h-0 !overflow-hidden !p-0 !m-0" style="content-visibility:hidden" inert="" aria-hidden="true"><div class="flex flex-col items-center shrink-0"><div class="w-px h-[7px] bg-pk-border"></div><div class="w-3 h-3 rounded-full border-2 border-pk-gray-300 bg-pk-surface shrink-0"></div><div class="w-px flex-1 bg-pk-border"></div></div><div class="flex-1 pb-8"><span class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary">Jul 7 2026</span><p class="text-body-base font-semibold text-pk-content-primary leading-5 mt-1">New York Fed survey shows rising short- and medium-term inflation expectations in June</p><p class="flex items-center gap-1 text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary mt-0.5"><span>25 bps increase<!-- --> <!-- -->jumps to<!-- --> <!-- -->33<!-- -->%</span><span class="inline-flex items-center gap-0.5 font-semibold text-pk-content-accent-green"><svg width="8" height="8" viewBox="0 0 12 12" fill="none" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><path d="M6.51952 2.5C6.28858 2.1 5.71123 2.1 5.48029 2.5L1.84298 8.8C1.61204 9.2 1.90072 9.7 2.3626 9.7L9.63721 9.7C10.0991 9.7 10.3878 9.2 10.1568 8.8L6.51952 2.5Z" fill="currentColor"></path></svg>5<!-- -->%</span></p><p class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-secondary leading-5 mt-1">The New York Fed&#x27;s June survey indicated that households&#x27; inflation expectations increased at the one- and three-year horizons, reflecting concerns about persistent inflation. This reinforced the Fed&#x27;s cautious stance and market pricing for a potential rate hike in September.</p><div class="flex items-center gap-1.5 mt-3"><a href="https://www.newyorkfed.org/newsevents/news/research/2026/20260707" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" class="flex items-center justify-center rounded-md overflow-hidden bg-white" style="width:28px;height:28px;border:1px solid var(--color-pk-border)" data-state="closed" data-slot="tooltip-trigger"><img src="https://www.google.com/s2/favicons?domain=www.newyorkfed.org&amp;sz=64" alt="newyorkfed.org" referrerPolicy="no-referrer" width="18" height="18" loading="lazy" style="object-fit:contain"/></a></div></div></div><div class="flex gap-3 relative !h-0 !overflow-hidden !p-0 !m-0" style="content-visibility:hidden" inert="" aria-hidden="true"><div class="flex flex-col items-center shrink-0"><div class="w-px h-[7px] bg-pk-border"></div><div class="w-3 h-3 rounded-full border-2 border-pk-gray-300 bg-pk-surface shrink-0"></div><div class="w-px flex-1 bg-pk-border"></div></div><div class="flex-1 pb-8"><span class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary">Jul 2 2026</span><p class="text-body-base font-semibold text-pk-content-primary leading-5 mt-1">July jobs report shows weaker employment growth, reducing odds of immediate Fed hike</p><p class="flex items-center gap-1 text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary mt-0.5"><span>No change<!-- --> <!-- -->drops to<!-- --> <!-- -->70<!-- -->%</span><span class="inline-flex items-center gap-0.5 font-semibold text-pk-content-accent-red"><svg width="8" height="8" viewBox="0 0 12 12" fill="none" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><path d="M6.51952 9.5C6.28858 9.9 5.71123 9.9 5.48029 9.5L1.84298 3.2C1.61204 2.8 1.90072 2.3 2.3626 2.3L9.63721 2.3C10.0991 2.3 10.3878 2.8 10.1568 3.2L6.51952 9.5Z" fill="currentColor"></path></svg>6<!-- -->%</span></p><p class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-secondary leading-5 mt-1">The July 2026 employment report showed a decline of 23,000 jobs, signaling a weakening labor market. This data reduced market expectations for an immediate rate hike, supporting the case for the Fed to hold rates steady in the near term.</p><div class="flex items-center gap-1.5 mt-3"><a href="https://www.regardsofwallstreet.com/news/september-2026-fed-meeting-dates-hike-odds" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" class="flex items-center justify-center rounded-md overflow-hidden bg-white" style="width:28px;height:28px;border:1px solid var(--color-pk-border)" data-state="closed" data-slot="tooltip-trigger"><img src="https://www.google.com/s2/favicons?domain=www.regardsofwallstreet.com&amp;sz=64" alt="Regards of Wallstreet" referrerPolicy="no-referrer" width="18" height="18" loading="lazy" style="object-fit:contain"/></a></div></div></div><div class="flex gap-3 relative !h-0 !overflow-hidden !p-0 !m-0" style="content-visibility:hidden" inert="" aria-hidden="true"><div class="flex flex-col items-center shrink-0"><div class="w-px h-[7px] bg-pk-border"></div><div class="w-3 h-3 rounded-full border-2 border-pk-gray-300 bg-pk-surface shrink-0"></div><div class="w-px flex-1 bg-pk-border"></div></div><div class="flex-1 pb-8"><span class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary">Jul 2 2026</span><p class="text-body-base font-semibold text-pk-content-primary leading-5 mt-1">June jobs report shows 57,000 jobs added, unemployment at 4.2%</p><p class="flex items-center gap-1 text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary mt-0.5"><span>No change<!-- --> <!-- -->drops to<!-- --> <!-- -->67<!-- -->%</span><span class="inline-flex items-center gap-0.5 font-semibold text-pk-content-accent-red"><svg width="8" height="8" viewBox="0 0 12 12" fill="none" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><path d="M6.51952 9.5C6.28858 9.9 5.71123 9.9 5.48029 9.5L1.84298 3.2C1.61204 2.8 1.90072 2.3 2.3626 2.3L9.63721 2.3C10.0991 2.3 10.3878 2.8 10.1568 3.2L6.51952 9.5Z" fill="currentColor"></path></svg>8<!-- -->%</span></p><p class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-secondary leading-5 mt-1">The June employment report indicated continued job growth and a stable unemployment rate, supporting the Fed&#x27;s view of a resilient labor market. This data reduced immediate pressure for rate cuts and contributed to market expectations of steady rates in the near term.</p><div class="flex items-center gap-1.5 mt-3"><a href="https://racerpm.com/article/federal-reserve-fomc-statement-june-2026-interest-rates-inflation-and-economic-outlook-explained" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" class="flex items-center justify-center rounded-md overflow-hidden bg-white" style="width:28px;height:28px;border:1px solid var(--color-pk-border)" data-state="closed" data-slot="tooltip-trigger"><img src="https://www.google.com/s2/favicons?domain=racerpm.com&amp;sz=64" alt="racerpm.com" referrerPolicy="no-referrer" width="18" height="18" loading="lazy" style="object-fit:contain"/></a></div></div></div><div class="flex gap-3 relative !h-0 !overflow-hidden !p-0 !m-0" style="content-visibility:hidden" inert="" aria-hidden="true"><div class="flex flex-col items-center shrink-0"><div class="w-px h-[7px] bg-pk-border"></div><div class="w-3 h-3 rounded-full border-2 border-pk-gray-300 bg-pk-surface shrink-0"></div><div class="w-px flex-1 bg-pk-border"></div></div><div class="flex-1 pb-8"><span class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary">Jun 25 2026</span><p class="text-body-base font-semibold text-pk-content-primary leading-5 mt-1">US Core Inflation Rises to Highest Level Since 2023, Pressuring Fed for Rate Hike</p><p class="flex items-center gap-1 text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary mt-0.5"><span>25 bps increase<!-- --> <!-- -->rises to<!-- --> <!-- -->19<!-- -->%</span><span class="inline-flex items-center gap-0.5 font-semibold text-pk-content-accent-green"><svg width="8" height="8" viewBox="0 0 12 12" fill="none" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><path d="M6.51952 2.5C6.28858 2.1 5.71123 2.1 5.48029 2.5L1.84298 8.8C1.61204 9.2 1.90072 9.7 2.3626 9.7L9.63721 9.7C10.0991 9.7 10.3878 9.2 10.1568 8.8L6.51952 2.5Z" fill="currentColor"></path></svg>3<!-- -->%</span></p><p class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-secondary leading-5 mt-1">The US core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index, the Federal Reserve&#x27;s preferred inflation gauge, accelerated to 4.1% in May 2026, the highest since October 2023. This increase intensified pressure on the Fed to consider raising interest rates to combat persistent inflation.</p><div class="flex items-center gap-1.5 mt-3"><a href="https://www.astazi.ro/stiri/stire-inflatia-de-baza-din-sua-urca-la-4-1-cel-mai-ridicat-nivel-din-ultimii-aproape-trei-ani-si-pune-presiune-pe-fed-pentru-o-noua-majorare-de-dobanda-260527145.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" class="flex items-center justify-center rounded-md overflow-hidden bg-white" style="width:28px;height:28px;border:1px solid var(--color-pk-border)" data-state="closed" data-slot="tooltip-trigger"><img src="https://www.google.com/s2/favicons?domain=www.astazi.ro&amp;sz=64" alt="Ziarul-Financiar" referrerPolicy="no-referrer" width="18" height="18" loading="lazy" style="object-fit:contain"/></a></div></div></div><div class="flex gap-3 relative !h-0 !overflow-hidden !p-0 !m-0" style="content-visibility:hidden" inert="" aria-hidden="true"><div class="flex flex-col items-center shrink-0"><div class="w-px h-[7px] bg-pk-border"></div><div class="w-3 h-3 rounded-full border-2 border-pk-gray-300 bg-pk-surface shrink-0"></div><div class="w-px flex-1 bg-pk-border"></div></div><div class="flex-1 pb-8"><span class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary">Jun 25 2026</span><p class="text-body-base font-semibold text-pk-content-primary leading-5 mt-1">Federal Reserve Inflation Gauge Surges Above 4% in June 2026</p><p class="flex items-center gap-1 text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary mt-0.5"><span>25 bps increase<!-- --> <!-- -->surges to<!-- --> <!-- -->59<!-- -->%</span><span class="inline-flex items-center gap-0.5 font-semibold text-pk-content-accent-green"><svg width="8" height="8" viewBox="0 0 12 12" fill="none" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><path d="M6.51952 2.5C6.28858 2.1 5.71123 2.1 5.48029 2.5L1.84298 8.8C1.61204 9.2 1.90072 9.7 2.3626 9.7L9.63721 9.7C10.0991 9.7 10.3878 9.2 10.1568 8.8L6.51952 2.5Z" fill="currentColor"></path></svg>21<!-- -->%</span></p><p class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-secondary leading-5 mt-1">The Fed&#x27;s preferred inflation measure, the PCE price index, rose to 4.1% in June, the highest since April 2023, signaling persistent inflationary pressures. This development increased market expectations for a rate hike later in 2026 to combat inflation.</p><div class="flex items-center gap-1.5 mt-3"><a href="https://thegistnotes.com/federal-reserve-inflation-gauge-surges-above-4-in-june-2026/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" class="flex items-center justify-center rounded-md overflow-hidden bg-white" style="width:28px;height:28px;border:1px solid var(--color-pk-border)" data-state="closed" data-slot="tooltip-trigger"><img src="https://www.google.com/s2/favicons?domain=thegistnotes.com&amp;sz=64" alt="The Gist Notes" referrerPolicy="no-referrer" width="18" height="18" loading="lazy" style="object-fit:contain"/></a></div></div></div><div class="flex gap-3 relative !h-0 !overflow-hidden !p-0 !m-0" style="content-visibility:hidden" inert="" aria-hidden="true"><div class="flex flex-col items-center shrink-0"><div class="w-px h-[7px] bg-pk-border"></div><div class="w-3 h-3 rounded-full border-2 border-pk-gray-300 bg-pk-surface shrink-0"></div><div class="w-px flex-1 bg-pk-border"></div></div><div class="flex-1 pb-8"><span class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary">Jun 17 2026</span><p class="text-body-base font-semibold text-pk-content-primary leading-5 mt-1">Kevin Warsh confirmed as new Federal Reserve Chair, signaling hawkish policy stance</p><p class="flex items-center gap-1 text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary mt-0.5"><span>No change<!-- --> <!-- -->drops to<!-- --> <!-- -->70<!-- -->%</span><span class="inline-flex items-center gap-0.5 font-semibold text-pk-content-accent-red"><svg width="8" height="8" viewBox="0 0 12 12" fill="none" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><path d="M6.51952 9.5C6.28858 9.9 5.71123 9.9 5.48029 9.5L1.84298 3.2C1.61204 2.8 1.90072 2.3 2.3626 2.3L9.63721 2.3C10.0991 2.3 10.3878 2.8 10.1568 3.2L6.51952 9.5Z" fill="currentColor"></path></svg>5<!-- -->%</span></p><p class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-secondary leading-5 mt-1">Kevin Warsh was confirmed as the new Fed Chair, emphasizing a commitment to price stability and signaling a potential hawkish tilt in monetary policy. His inaugural FOMC meeting maintained rates but removed forward guidance, increasing market uncertainty about future moves.</p><div class="flex items-center gap-1.5 mt-3"><a href="https://www.bondbuyer.com/organization/federal-reserve" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" class="flex items-center justify-center rounded-md overflow-hidden bg-white" style="width:28px;height:28px;border:1px solid var(--color-pk-border)" data-state="closed" data-slot="tooltip-trigger"><img src="https://www.google.com/s2/favicons?domain=www.bondbuyer.com&amp;sz=64" alt="Bond Buyer" referrerPolicy="no-referrer" width="18" height="18" loading="lazy" style="object-fit:contain"/></a></div></div></div><div class="flex gap-3 relative !h-0 !overflow-hidden !p-0 !m-0" style="content-visibility:hidden" inert="" aria-hidden="true"><div class="flex flex-col items-center shrink-0"><div class="w-px h-[7px] bg-pk-border"></div><div class="w-3 h-3 rounded-full border-2 border-pk-gray-300 bg-pk-surface shrink-0"></div><div class="w-px flex-1 bg-pk-border"></div></div><div class="flex-1 pb-8"><span class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary">Jun 17 2026</span><p class="text-body-base font-semibold text-pk-content-primary leading-5 mt-1">Federal Reserve holds rates steady at June meeting amid Middle East uncertainty</p><p class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-secondary leading-5 mt-1">The FOMC unanimously voted to keep the federal funds rate target range at 3.50% to 3.75%, noting solid economic expansion despite elevated uncertainty from the Middle East conflict. Inflation remained above the 2% target, reinforcing the Fed&#x27;s commitment to price stability without immediate rate changes.</p><div class="flex items-center gap-1.5 mt-3"><a href="https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20260617a.htm" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" class="flex items-center justify-center rounded-md overflow-hidden bg-white" style="width:28px;height:28px;border:1px solid var(--color-pk-border)" data-state="closed" data-slot="tooltip-trigger"><img src="https://www.google.com/s2/favicons?domain=www.federalreserve.gov&amp;sz=64" alt="Federal Reserve Board" referrerPolicy="no-referrer" width="18" height="18" loading="lazy" style="object-fit:contain"/></a></div></div></div><div class="flex gap-3 relative !h-0 !overflow-hidden !p-0 !m-0" style="content-visibility:hidden" inert="" aria-hidden="true"><div class="flex flex-col items-center shrink-0"><div class="w-px h-[7px] bg-pk-border"></div><div class="w-3 h-3 rounded-full border-2 border-pk-gray-300 bg-pk-surface shrink-0"></div><div class="w-px flex-1 bg-pk-border"></div></div><div class="flex-1 pb-8"><span class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary">Jun 17 2026</span><p class="text-body-base font-semibold text-pk-content-primary leading-5 mt-1">Kevin Warsh leads first Federal Reserve meeting, holds rates steady</p><p class="flex items-center gap-1 text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary mt-0.5"><span>No change<!-- --> <!-- -->rises to<!-- --> <!-- -->76<!-- -->%</span><span class="inline-flex items-center gap-0.5 font-semibold text-pk-content-accent-green"><svg width="8" height="8" viewBox="0 0 12 12" fill="none" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><path d="M6.51952 2.5C6.28858 2.1 5.71123 2.1 5.48029 2.5L1.84298 8.8C1.61204 9.2 1.90072 9.7 2.3626 9.7L9.63721 9.7C10.0991 9.7 10.3878 9.2 10.1568 8.8L6.51952 2.5Z" fill="currentColor"></path></svg>1<!-- -->%</span></p><p class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-secondary leading-5 mt-1">At his first FOMC meeting as Chair on June 17, 2026, Kevin Warsh maintained the federal funds rate at 3.50%–3.75%, signaling a cautious, data-dependent approach amid elevated inflation and a stabilizing labor market. His less detailed forward guidance contributed to market uncertainty about future hikes.</p><div class="flex items-center gap-1.5 mt-3"><a href="https://ground.news/article/warsh-to-face-spotlight-as-federal-reserve-likely-to-leave-interest-rates-unchanged" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" class="flex items-center justify-center rounded-md overflow-hidden bg-white" style="width:28px;height:28px;border:1px solid var(--color-pk-border)" data-state="closed" data-slot="tooltip-trigger"><img src="https://www.google.com/s2/favicons?domain=ground.news&amp;sz=64" alt="Ground News" referrerPolicy="no-referrer" width="18" height="18" loading="lazy" style="object-fit:contain"/></a><a href="https://news.constructconnect.com/fed-stays-put-as-2026-opens-keeping-cuts-on-a-short-leash" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" class="flex items-center justify-center rounded-md overflow-hidden bg-white" style="width:28px;height:28px;border:1px solid var(--color-pk-border)" data-state="closed" data-slot="tooltip-trigger"><img src="https://www.google.com/s2/favicons?domain=news.constructconnect.com&amp;sz=64" alt="ConstructConnect News" referrerPolicy="no-referrer" width="18" height="18" loading="lazy" style="object-fit:contain"/></a></div></div></div><div class="flex gap-3 relative !h-0 !overflow-hidden !p-0 !m-0" style="content-visibility:hidden" inert="" aria-hidden="true"><div class="flex flex-col items-center shrink-0"><div class="w-px h-[7px] bg-pk-border"></div><div class="w-3 h-3 rounded-full border-2 border-pk-gray-300 bg-pk-surface shrink-0"></div><div class="w-px flex-1 bg-pk-border"></div></div><div class="flex-1 pb-8"><span class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary">Jun 17 2026</span><p class="text-body-base font-semibold text-pk-content-primary leading-5 mt-1">FOMC unanimously maintains federal funds rate at 3.50%-3.75% amid solid growth</p><p class="flex items-center gap-1 text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary mt-0.5"><span>No change<!-- --> <!-- -->drops to<!-- --> <!-- -->71<!-- -->%</span><span class="inline-flex items-center gap-0.5 font-semibold text-pk-content-accent-red"><svg width="8" height="8" viewBox="0 0 12 12" fill="none" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><path d="M6.51952 9.5C6.28858 9.9 5.71123 9.9 5.48029 9.5L1.84298 3.2C1.61204 2.8 1.90072 2.3 2.3626 2.3L9.63721 2.3C10.0991 2.3 10.3878 2.8 10.1568 3.2L6.51952 9.5Z" fill="currentColor"></path></svg>5<!-- -->%</span></p><p class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-secondary leading-5 mt-1">The Federal Reserve&#x27;s Federal Open Market Committee voted unanimously to keep the target range steady, citing solid economic activity and elevated inflation. The statement noted uncertainties from geopolitical tensions but reaffirmed commitment to price stability, supporting market expectations for no immediate rate change.</p><div class="flex items-center gap-1.5 mt-3"><a href="https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/files/monetary20260617a1.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" class="flex items-center justify-center rounded-md overflow-hidden bg-white" style="width:28px;height:28px;border:1px solid var(--color-pk-border)" data-state="closed" data-slot="tooltip-trigger"><img src="https://www.google.com/s2/favicons?domain=www.federalreserve.gov&amp;sz=64" alt="federalreserve.gov" referrerPolicy="no-referrer" width="18" height="18" loading="lazy" style="object-fit:contain"/></a></div></div></div><div class="flex gap-3 relative !h-0 !overflow-hidden !p-0 !m-0" style="content-visibility:hidden" inert="" aria-hidden="true"><div class="flex flex-col items-center shrink-0"><div class="w-px h-[7px] bg-pk-border"></div><div class="w-3 h-3 rounded-full border-2 border-pk-gray-300 bg-pk-surface shrink-0"></div><div class="w-px flex-1 bg-pk-border"></div></div><div class="flex-1 pb-8"><span class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary">Jun 17 2026</span><p class="text-body-base font-semibold text-pk-content-primary leading-5 mt-1">Federal Reserve removes easing bias, signals possible rate hike later in 2026</p><p class="flex items-center gap-1 text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary mt-0.5"><span>No change<!-- --> <!-- -->drops to<!-- --> <!-- -->69<!-- -->%</span><span class="inline-flex items-center gap-0.5 font-semibold text-pk-content-accent-red"><svg width="8" height="8" viewBox="0 0 12 12" fill="none" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><path d="M6.51952 9.5C6.28858 9.9 5.71123 9.9 5.48029 9.5L1.84298 3.2C1.61204 2.8 1.90072 2.3 2.3626 2.3L9.63721 2.3C10.0991 2.3 10.3878 2.8 10.1568 3.2L6.51952 9.5Z" fill="currentColor"></path></svg>7<!-- -->%</span></p><p class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-secondary leading-5 mt-1">At the June 16-17 FOMC meeting, the Fed removed language indicating a bias toward future rate cuts and signaled that a rate hike is possible later in 2026 due to accelerating inflation and a stable labor market. This hawkish shift caused markets to reassess expectations, reducing the likelihood of cuts and increasing the probability of hikes.</p><div class="flex items-center gap-1.5 mt-3"><a href="https://polymarket.copilot.markets/event/fed-decision-in-september-762" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" class="flex items-center justify-center rounded-md overflow-hidden bg-white" style="width:28px;height:28px;border:1px solid var(--color-pk-border)" data-state="closed" data-slot="tooltip-trigger"><img src="https://www.google.com/s2/favicons?domain=polymarket.copilot.markets&amp;sz=64" alt="Polymarket" referrerPolicy="no-referrer" width="18" height="18" loading="lazy" style="object-fit:contain"/></a></div></div></div><div class="flex gap-3 relative !h-0 !overflow-hidden !p-0 !m-0" style="content-visibility:hidden" inert="" aria-hidden="true"><div class="flex flex-col items-center shrink-0"><div class="w-px h-[7px] bg-pk-border"></div><div class="w-3 h-3 rounded-full border-2 border-pk-gray-300 bg-pk-surface shrink-0"></div><div class="w-px flex-1 bg-pk-border"></div></div><div class="flex-1 pb-8"><span class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary">Jun 17 2026</span><p class="text-body-base font-semibold text-pk-content-primary leading-5 mt-1">Federal Reserve holds interest rates steady at 3.50%-3.75% amid persistent inflation</p><p class="flex items-center gap-1 text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary mt-0.5"><span>25 bps increase<!-- --> <!-- -->surges to<!-- --> <!-- -->39<!-- -->%</span><span class="inline-flex items-center gap-0.5 font-semibold text-pk-content-accent-green"><svg width="8" height="8" viewBox="0 0 12 12" fill="none" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><path d="M6.51952 2.5C6.28858 2.1 5.71123 2.1 5.48029 2.5L1.84298 8.8C1.61204 9.2 1.90072 9.7 2.3626 9.7L9.63721 9.7C10.0991 9.7 10.3878 9.2 10.1568 8.8L6.51952 2.5Z" fill="currentColor"></path></svg>20<!-- -->%</span></p><p class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-secondary leading-5 mt-1">At its June 17 meeting, the Federal Open Market Committee unanimously voted to maintain the federal funds rate at 3.50%-3.75%, citing solid economic growth but elevated inflation driven by supply shocks, including energy prices. The Fed signaled a cautious approach, emphasizing price stability while acknowledging ongoing inflation risks, which influenced market expectations for future rate hikes.</p><div class="flex items-center gap-1.5 mt-3"><a href="https://www.reuters.com/business/fed-officials-mull-raising-rates-curb-growing-inflation-risk-2026-05-29/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" class="flex items-center justify-center rounded-md overflow-hidden bg-white" style="width:28px;height:28px;border:1px solid var(--color-pk-border)" data-state="closed" data-slot="tooltip-trigger"><img src="https://www.google.com/s2/favicons?domain=www.reuters.com&amp;sz=64" alt="Reuters" referrerPolicy="no-referrer" width="18" height="18" loading="lazy" style="object-fit:contain"/></a><a href="https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/files/monetary20260617a1.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" class="flex items-center justify-center rounded-md overflow-hidden bg-white" style="width:28px;height:28px;border:1px solid var(--color-pk-border)" data-state="closed" data-slot="tooltip-trigger"><img src="https://www.google.com/s2/favicons?domain=www.federalreserve.gov&amp;sz=64" alt="Federal Reserve" referrerPolicy="no-referrer" width="18" height="18" loading="lazy" style="object-fit:contain"/></a></div></div></div><div class="flex gap-3 relative !h-0 !overflow-hidden !p-0 !m-0" style="content-visibility:hidden" inert="" aria-hidden="true"><div class="flex flex-col items-center shrink-0"><div class="w-px h-[7px] bg-pk-border"></div><div class="w-3 h-3 rounded-full border-2 border-pk-gray-300 bg-pk-surface shrink-0"></div><div class="w-px flex-1 bg-pk-border"></div></div><div class="flex-1 pb-8"><span class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary">Jun 17 2026</span><p class="text-body-base font-semibold text-pk-content-primary leading-5 mt-1">Federal Reserve holds rates steady at 3.50%-3.75% with hawkish projections</p><p class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-secondary leading-5 mt-1">At the June 17 FOMC meeting, the Fed unanimously kept rates unchanged but signaled a hawkish outlook with projections for higher rates by year-end, reflecting persistent inflation and solid economic growth. This reinforced expectations for possible hikes later in 2026.</p><div class="flex items-center gap-1.5 mt-3"><a href="https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomcminutes20260617.htm" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" class="flex items-center justify-center rounded-md overflow-hidden bg-white" style="width:28px;height:28px;border:1px solid var(--color-pk-border)" data-state="closed" data-slot="tooltip-trigger"><img src="https://www.google.com/s2/favicons?domain=www.federalreserve.gov&amp;sz=64" alt="Federal Reserve" referrerPolicy="no-referrer" width="18" height="18" loading="lazy" style="object-fit:contain"/></a><a href="https://www.tradingkey.com/analysis/economic/central-banks/261973912-fed-federal-fomc-2-economic-projections-decision-rates-tradingkey" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" class="flex items-center justify-center rounded-md overflow-hidden bg-white" style="width:28px;height:28px;border:1px solid var(--color-pk-border)" data-state="closed" data-slot="tooltip-trigger"><img src="https://www.google.com/s2/favicons?domain=www.tradingkey.com&amp;sz=64" alt="TradingKey" referrerPolicy="no-referrer" width="18" height="18" loading="lazy" style="object-fit:contain"/></a></div></div></div><div class="flex gap-3 relative !h-0 !overflow-hidden !p-0 !m-0" style="content-visibility:hidden" inert="" aria-hidden="true"><div class="flex flex-col items-center shrink-0"><div class="w-px h-[7px] bg-pk-border"></div><div class="w-3 h-3 rounded-full border-2 border-pk-gray-300 bg-pk-surface shrink-0"></div><div class="w-px flex-1 bg-pk-border"></div></div><div class="flex-1 pb-8"><span class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary">Jun 17 2026</span><p class="text-body-base font-semibold text-pk-content-primary leading-5 mt-1">Federal Reserve maintains rates at 3.5%-3.75% amid inflation and Middle East uncertainty</p><p class="flex items-center gap-1 text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary mt-0.5"><span>No change<!-- --> <!-- -->jumps to<!-- --> <!-- -->70<!-- -->%</span><span class="inline-flex items-center gap-0.5 font-semibold text-pk-content-accent-green"><svg width="8" height="8" viewBox="0 0 12 12" fill="none" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><path d="M6.51952 2.5C6.28858 2.1 5.71123 2.1 5.48029 2.5L1.84298 8.8C1.61204 9.2 1.90072 9.7 2.3626 9.7L9.63721 9.7C10.0991 9.7 10.3878 9.2 10.1568 8.8L6.51952 2.5Z" fill="currentColor"></path></svg>5<!-- -->%</span></p><p class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-secondary leading-5 mt-1">At the June FOMC meeting, the Fed kept rates steady, emphasizing ongoing elevated inflation partly due to supply shocks from the Middle East conflict. The unanimous vote and statement reinforced a cautious stance, impacting market pricing toward a potential future hike.</p><div class="flex items-center gap-1.5 mt-3"><a href="https://english.kontan.co.id/news/federal-reserve-issues-fomc-statement-june-17-2026-200-pm-est" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" class="flex items-center justify-center rounded-md overflow-hidden bg-white" style="width:28px;height:28px;border:1px solid var(--color-pk-border)" data-state="closed" data-slot="tooltip-trigger"><img src="https://www.google.com/s2/favicons?domain=english.kontan.co.id&amp;sz=64" alt="Federal Reserve Board" referrerPolicy="no-referrer" width="18" height="18" loading="lazy" style="object-fit:contain"/></a><a href="https://investinglive.com/centralbank/the-full-fomc-statement-from-the-june-2026-meeting-20260617/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" class="flex items-center justify-center rounded-md overflow-hidden bg-white" style="width:28px;height:28px;border:1px solid var(--color-pk-border)" data-state="closed" data-slot="tooltip-trigger"><img src="https://www.google.com/s2/favicons?domain=investinglive.com&amp;sz=64" alt="InvestingLive" referrerPolicy="no-referrer" width="18" height="18" loading="lazy" style="object-fit:contain"/></a></div></div></div><div class="flex gap-3 relative !h-0 !overflow-hidden !p-0 !m-0" style="content-visibility:hidden" inert="" aria-hidden="true"><div class="flex flex-col items-center shrink-0"><div class="w-px h-[7px] bg-pk-border"></div><div class="w-3 h-3 rounded-full border-2 border-pk-gray-300 bg-pk-surface shrink-0"></div><div class="w-px flex-1 bg-pk-border"></div></div><div class="flex-1 pb-8"><span class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary">Jun 17 2026</span><p class="text-body-base font-semibold text-pk-content-primary leading-5 mt-1">Federal Open Market Committee unanimously maintains federal funds rate at 3.50%-3.75%</p><p class="flex items-center gap-1 text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary mt-0.5"><span>No change<!-- --> <!-- -->drops to<!-- --> <!-- -->69<!-- -->%</span><span class="inline-flex items-center gap-0.5 font-semibold text-pk-content-accent-red"><svg width="8" height="8" viewBox="0 0 12 12" fill="none" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><path d="M6.51952 9.5C6.28858 9.9 5.71123 9.9 5.48029 9.5L1.84298 3.2C1.61204 2.8 1.90072 2.3 2.3626 2.3L9.63721 2.3C10.0991 2.3 10.3878 2.8 10.1568 3.2L6.51952 9.5Z" fill="currentColor"></path></svg>5<!-- -->%</span></p><p class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-secondary leading-5 mt-1">The FOMC voted 12-0 to keep the target range unchanged, removing language suggesting an easing bias and emphasizing the need to deliver price stability amid elevated inflation and economic uncertainty.</p><div class="flex items-center gap-1.5 mt-3"><a href="https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20260617a.htm" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" class="flex items-center justify-center rounded-md overflow-hidden bg-white" style="width:28px;height:28px;border:1px solid var(--color-pk-border)" data-state="closed" data-slot="tooltip-trigger"><img src="https://www.google.com/s2/favicons?domain=www.federalreserve.gov&amp;sz=64" alt="Federal Reserve" referrerPolicy="no-referrer" width="18" height="18" loading="lazy" style="object-fit:contain"/></a></div></div></div><div class="flex gap-3 relative !h-0 !overflow-hidden !p-0 !m-0" style="content-visibility:hidden" inert="" aria-hidden="true"><div class="flex flex-col items-center shrink-0"><div class="w-px h-[7px] bg-pk-border"></div><div class="w-3 h-3 rounded-full border-2 border-pk-gray-300 bg-pk-surface shrink-0"></div><div class="w-px flex-1 bg-pk-border"></div></div><div class="flex-1 pb-8"><span class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary">Jun 17 2026</span><p class="text-body-base font-semibold text-pk-content-primary leading-5 mt-1">Kevin Warsh holds first Fed meeting, keeps rates steady at 3.5%-3.75%</p><p class="flex items-center gap-1 text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary mt-0.5"><span>25 bps increase<!-- --> <!-- -->jumps to<!-- --> <!-- -->38<!-- -->%</span><span class="inline-flex items-center gap-0.5 font-semibold text-pk-content-accent-green"><svg width="8" height="8" viewBox="0 0 12 12" fill="none" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><path d="M6.51952 2.5C6.28858 2.1 5.71123 2.1 5.48029 2.5L1.84298 8.8C1.61204 9.2 1.90072 9.7 2.3626 9.7L9.63721 9.7C10.0991 9.7 10.3878 9.2 10.1568 8.8L6.51952 2.5Z" fill="currentColor"></path></svg>12<!-- -->%</span></p><p class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-secondary leading-5 mt-1">At his first Federal Reserve meeting as Chair, Kevin Warsh maintained the federal funds rate at 3.5%-3.75%, signaling a cautious approach amid persistent inflation and energy price pressures from the U.S.-Iran conflict. The meeting revealed a divided committee with some policymakers expecting rate hikes later in 2026, influencing market expectations for a possible September increase.</p><div class="flex items-center gap-1.5 mt-3"><a href="https://ground.news/article/warsh-to-face-spotlight-as-federal-reserve-likely-to-leave-interest-rates-unchanged" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" class="flex items-center justify-center rounded-md overflow-hidden bg-white" style="width:28px;height:28px;border:1px solid var(--color-pk-border)" data-state="closed" data-slot="tooltip-trigger"><img src="https://www.google.com/s2/favicons?domain=ground.news&amp;sz=64" alt="Ground News" referrerPolicy="no-referrer" width="18" height="18" loading="lazy" style="object-fit:contain"/></a></div></div></div><div class="flex gap-3 relative !h-0 !overflow-hidden !p-0 !m-0" style="content-visibility:hidden" inert="" aria-hidden="true"><div class="flex flex-col items-center shrink-0"><div class="w-px h-[7px] bg-pk-border"></div><div class="w-3 h-3 rounded-full border-2 border-pk-gray-300 bg-pk-surface shrink-0"></div><div class="w-px flex-1 bg-pk-border"></div></div><div class="flex-1 pb-8"><span class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary">Jun 17 2026</span><p class="text-body-base font-semibold text-pk-content-primary leading-5 mt-1">Federal Reserve holds federal funds rate steady at 3.50%-3.75% amid solid growth and elevated inflation</p><p class="flex items-center gap-1 text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary mt-0.5"><span>No change<!-- --> <!-- -->rises to<!-- --> <!-- -->74<!-- -->%</span><span class="inline-flex items-center gap-0.5 font-semibold text-pk-content-accent-green"><svg width="8" height="8" viewBox="0 0 12 12" fill="none" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><path d="M6.51952 2.5C6.28858 2.1 5.71123 2.1 5.48029 2.5L1.84298 8.8C1.61204 9.2 1.90072 9.7 2.3626 9.7L9.63721 9.7C10.0991 9.7 10.3878 9.2 10.1568 8.8L6.51952 2.5Z" fill="currentColor"></path></svg>1<!-- -->%</span></p><p class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-secondary leading-5 mt-1">At its June 16-17 meeting, the FOMC unanimously decided to maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 3.50% to 3.75%, citing solid economic activity and persistent inflation above the 2% goal. The statement removed easing bias and signaled a more hawkish outlook, leading markets to price in fewer rate cuts and potential hikes later in the year.</p><div class="flex items-center gap-1.5 mt-3"><a href="https://www.reuters.com/business/fed-hold-rates-this-year-cut-calls-fade-war-inflation-persists-economists-say-2026-06-09/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" class="flex items-center justify-center rounded-md overflow-hidden bg-white" style="width:28px;height:28px;border:1px solid var(--color-pk-border)" data-state="closed" data-slot="tooltip-trigger"><img src="https://www.google.com/s2/favicons?domain=www.reuters.com&amp;sz=64" alt="Reuters" referrerPolicy="no-referrer" width="18" height="18" loading="lazy" style="object-fit:contain"/></a><a href="https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomcminutes20260617.htm" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" class="flex items-center justify-center rounded-md overflow-hidden bg-white" style="width:28px;height:28px;border:1px solid var(--color-pk-border)" data-state="closed" data-slot="tooltip-trigger"><img src="https://www.google.com/s2/favicons?domain=www.federalreserve.gov&amp;sz=64" alt="Federal Reserve Board" referrerPolicy="no-referrer" width="18" height="18" loading="lazy" style="object-fit:contain"/></a></div></div></div><div class="flex gap-3 relative !h-0 !overflow-hidden !p-0 !m-0" style="content-visibility:hidden" inert="" aria-hidden="true"><div class="flex flex-col items-center shrink-0"><div class="w-px h-[7px] bg-pk-border"></div><div class="w-3 h-3 rounded-full border-2 border-pk-gray-300 bg-pk-surface shrink-0"></div><div class="w-px flex-1 bg-pk-border"></div></div><div class="flex-1 pb-8"><span class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary">Jun 17 2026</span><p class="text-body-base font-semibold text-pk-content-primary leading-5 mt-1">FOMC Maintains Federal Funds Rate at 3.50%-3.75% in First Meeting Under Chair Warsh</p><p class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-secondary leading-5 mt-1">The Federal Open Market Committee voted unanimously to keep the federal funds rate steady at 3.50%-3.75% during its June meeting, signaling a pause amid elevated inflation and economic growth. This decision reinforced market expectations for no immediate rate cuts and supported the rising probability of a 25 bps increase by September.</p><div class="flex items-center gap-1.5 mt-3"><a href="https://www.live-feeds.com/feed/federal-reserve-issues-fomc-statement" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" class="flex items-center justify-center rounded-md overflow-hidden bg-white" style="width:28px;height:28px;border:1px solid var(--color-pk-border)" data-state="closed" data-slot="tooltip-trigger"><img src="https://www.google.com/s2/favicons?domain=www.live-feeds.com&amp;sz=64" alt="Live Feeds" referrerPolicy="no-referrer" width="18" height="18" loading="lazy" style="object-fit:contain"/></a></div></div></div><div class="flex gap-3 relative !h-0 !overflow-hidden !p-0 !m-0" style="content-visibility:hidden" inert="" aria-hidden="true"><div class="flex flex-col items-center shrink-0"><div class="w-px h-[7px] bg-pk-border"></div><div class="w-3 h-3 rounded-full border-2 border-pk-gray-300 bg-pk-surface shrink-0"></div><div class="w-px flex-1 bg-pk-border"></div></div><div class="flex-1 pb-8"><span class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary">Jun 17 2026</span><p class="text-body-base font-semibold text-pk-content-primary leading-5 mt-1">Federal Reserve Board Votes Unanimously to Maintain Interest Rate Paid on Reserve Balances</p><p class="flex items-center gap-1 text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary mt-0.5"><span>No change<!-- --> <!-- -->surges to<!-- --> <!-- -->81<!-- -->%</span><span class="inline-flex items-center gap-0.5 font-semibold text-pk-content-accent-green"><svg width="8" height="8" viewBox="0 0 12 12" fill="none" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><path d="M6.51952 2.5C6.28858 2.1 5.71123 2.1 5.48029 2.5L1.84298 8.8C1.61204 9.2 1.90072 9.7 2.3626 9.7L9.63721 9.7C10.0991 9.7 10.3878 9.2 10.1568 8.8L6.51952 2.5Z" fill="currentColor"></path></svg>28<!-- -->%</span></p><p class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-secondary leading-5 mt-1">The Federal Reserve Board of Governors unanimously maintained the interest rate paid on reserve balances at 3.65 percent effective June 18, 2026, supporting the FOMC&#x27;s decision to hold the federal funds rate steady. This reinforced the Fed&#x27;s cautious stance amid ongoing inflation and economic conditions.</p><div class="flex items-center gap-1.5 mt-3"><a href="https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/files/monetary20260617a1.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" class="flex items-center justify-center rounded-md overflow-hidden bg-white" style="width:28px;height:28px;border:1px solid var(--color-pk-border)" data-state="closed" data-slot="tooltip-trigger"><img src="https://www.google.com/s2/favicons?domain=www.federalreserve.gov&amp;sz=64" alt="Federal Reserve" referrerPolicy="no-referrer" width="18" height="18" loading="lazy" style="object-fit:contain"/></a></div></div></div><div class="flex gap-3 relative !h-0 !overflow-hidden !p-0 !m-0" style="content-visibility:hidden" inert="" aria-hidden="true"><div class="flex flex-col items-center shrink-0"><div class="w-px h-[7px] bg-pk-border"></div><div class="w-3 h-3 rounded-full border-2 border-pk-gray-300 bg-pk-surface shrink-0"></div><div class="w-px flex-1 bg-pk-border"></div></div><div class="flex-1 pb-8"><span class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary">Jun 17 2026</span><p class="text-body-base font-semibold text-pk-content-primary leading-5 mt-1">New Fed Chair Kevin Warsh signals hawkish shift at June FOMC meeting</p><p class="flex items-center gap-1 text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary mt-0.5"><span>No change<!-- --> <!-- -->rises to<!-- --> <!-- -->74<!-- -->%</span><span class="inline-flex items-center gap-0.5 font-semibold text-pk-content-accent-green"><svg width="8" height="8" viewBox="0 0 12 12" fill="none" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><path d="M6.51952 2.5C6.28858 2.1 5.71123 2.1 5.48029 2.5L1.84298 8.8C1.61204 9.2 1.90072 9.7 2.3626 9.7L9.63721 9.7C10.0991 9.7 10.3878 9.2 10.1568 8.8L6.51952 2.5Z" fill="currentColor"></path></svg>1<!-- -->%</span></p><p class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-secondary leading-5 mt-1">Kevin Warsh&#x27;s first FOMC meeting as Fed Chair marked a shift away from easing bias, with projections indicating fewer rate cuts and the possibility of hikes later in 2026 due to accelerating inflation and firm labor markets.</p><div class="flex items-center gap-1.5 mt-3"><a href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/simonmoore/2026/06/08/fed-may-remove-easing-language-at-june-meeting-setting-up-a-potential-2026-hike/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" class="flex items-center justify-center rounded-md overflow-hidden bg-white" style="width:28px;height:28px;border:1px solid var(--color-pk-border)" data-state="closed" data-slot="tooltip-trigger"><img src="https://www.google.com/s2/favicons?domain=www.forbes.com&amp;sz=64" alt="Forbes" referrerPolicy="no-referrer" width="18" height="18" loading="lazy" style="object-fit:contain"/></a></div></div></div><div class="flex gap-3 relative !h-0 !overflow-hidden !p-0 !m-0" style="content-visibility:hidden" inert="" aria-hidden="true"><div class="flex flex-col items-center shrink-0"><div class="w-px h-[7px] bg-pk-border"></div><div class="w-3 h-3 rounded-full border-2 border-pk-gray-300 bg-pk-surface shrink-0"></div><div class="w-px flex-1 bg-pk-border"></div></div><div class="flex-1 pb-8"><span class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary">Jun 17 2026</span><p class="text-body-base font-semibold text-pk-content-primary leading-5 mt-1">Federal Reserve Holds Interest Rates Steady at 3.50%-3.75% in June 2026</p><p class="flex items-center gap-1 text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary mt-0.5"><span>No change<!-- --> <!-- -->surges to<!-- --> <!-- -->76<!-- -->%</span><span class="inline-flex items-center gap-0.5 font-semibold text-pk-content-accent-green"><svg width="8" height="8" viewBox="0 0 12 12" fill="none" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><path d="M6.51952 2.5C6.28858 2.1 5.71123 2.1 5.48029 2.5L1.84298 8.8C1.61204 9.2 1.90072 9.7 2.3626 9.7L9.63721 9.7C10.0991 9.7 10.3878 9.2 10.1568 8.8L6.51952 2.5Z" fill="currentColor"></path></svg>23<!-- -->%</span></p><p class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-secondary leading-5 mt-1">The Federal Reserve decided to maintain the federal funds rate target range at 3.50%-3.75% during its June 17 meeting, citing solid economic expansion despite persistent inflation. This decision marked the fourth consecutive hold and signaled a higher-for-longer rate outlook, influencing market expectations for future rate hikes.</p><div class="flex items-center gap-1.5 mt-3"><a href="https://www.tradingkey.com/analysis/economic/central-banks/261973912-fed-federal-fomc-2-economic-projections-decision-rates-tradingkey" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" class="flex items-center justify-center rounded-md overflow-hidden bg-white" style="width:28px;height:28px;border:1px solid var(--color-pk-border)" data-state="closed" data-slot="tooltip-trigger"><img src="https://www.google.com/s2/favicons?domain=www.tradingkey.com&amp;sz=64" alt="TradingKey" referrerPolicy="no-referrer" width="18" height="18" loading="lazy" style="object-fit:contain"/></a><a href="https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/files/monetary20260617a1.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" class="flex items-center justify-center rounded-md overflow-hidden bg-white" style="width:28px;height:28px;border:1px solid var(--color-pk-border)" data-state="closed" data-slot="tooltip-trigger"><img src="https://www.google.com/s2/favicons?domain=www.federalreserve.gov&amp;sz=64" alt="Federal Reserve" referrerPolicy="no-referrer" width="18" height="18" loading="lazy" style="object-fit:contain"/></a></div></div></div><div class="flex gap-3 relative !h-0 !overflow-hidden !p-0 !m-0" style="content-visibility:hidden" inert="" aria-hidden="true"><div class="flex flex-col items-center shrink-0"><div class="w-px h-[7px] bg-pk-border"></div><div class="w-3 h-3 rounded-full border-2 border-pk-gray-300 bg-pk-surface shrink-0"></div><div class="w-px flex-1 bg-pk-border"></div></div><div class="flex-1 pb-8"><span class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary">Jun 17 2026</span><p class="text-body-base font-semibold text-pk-content-primary leading-5 mt-1">Fed Interest Rate Decision June 2026: What It Means for You</p><p class="flex items-center gap-1 text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary mt-0.5"><span>No change<!-- --> <!-- -->drops to<!-- --> <!-- -->70<!-- -->%</span><span class="inline-flex items-center gap-0.5 font-semibold text-pk-content-accent-red"><svg width="8" height="8" viewBox="0 0 12 12" fill="none" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><path d="M6.51952 9.5C6.28858 9.9 5.71123 9.9 5.48029 9.5L1.84298 3.2C1.61204 2.8 1.90072 2.3 2.3626 2.3L9.63721 2.3C10.0991 2.3 10.3878 2.8 10.1568 3.2L6.51952 9.5Z" fill="currentColor"></path></svg>5<!-- -->%</span></p><p class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-secondary leading-5 mt-1">The Fed held rates steady amid accelerating inflation driven by energy costs and a resilient labor market. This decision signaled no immediate relief for borrowers, as inflation remained above target and wage growth lagged behind price increases.</p><div class="flex items-center gap-1.5 mt-3"><a href="https://www.deputy.com/blog/fed-interest-rate-decision-june-2026-what-it-means-for-you" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" class="flex items-center justify-center rounded-md overflow-hidden bg-white" style="width:28px;height:28px;border:1px solid var(--color-pk-border)" data-state="closed" data-slot="tooltip-trigger"><img src="https://www.google.com/s2/favicons?domain=www.deputy.com&amp;sz=64" alt="Deputy" referrerPolicy="no-referrer" width="18" height="18" loading="lazy" style="object-fit:contain"/></a></div></div></div><div class="flex gap-3 relative !h-0 !overflow-hidden !p-0 !m-0" style="content-visibility:hidden" inert="" aria-hidden="true"><div class="flex flex-col items-center shrink-0"><div class="w-px h-[7px] bg-pk-border"></div><div class="w-3 h-3 rounded-full border-2 border-pk-gray-300 bg-pk-surface shrink-0"></div><div class="w-px flex-1 bg-pk-border"></div></div><div class="flex-1 pb-8"><span class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary">Jun 17 2026</span><p class="text-body-base font-semibold text-pk-content-primary leading-5 mt-1">Fed Chair Kevin Warsh Signals Hawkish Outlook in First Meeting</p><p class="flex items-center gap-1 text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary mt-0.5"><span>25 bps increase<!-- --> <!-- -->surges to<!-- --> <!-- -->38<!-- -->%</span><span class="inline-flex items-center gap-0.5 font-semibold text-pk-content-accent-green"><svg width="8" height="8" viewBox="0 0 12 12" fill="none" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><path d="M6.51952 2.5C6.28858 2.1 5.71123 2.1 5.48029 2.5L1.84298 8.8C1.61204 9.2 1.90072 9.7 2.3626 9.7L9.63721 9.7C10.0991 9.7 10.3878 9.2 10.1568 8.8L6.51952 2.5Z" fill="currentColor"></path></svg>25<!-- -->%</span></p><p class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-secondary leading-5 mt-1">In his first FOMC meeting as Chair, Kevin Warsh emphasized the Fed&#x27;s commitment to price stability amid elevated inflation, rejecting the idea of rate cuts in 2026 and indicating a possible rate hike later in the year. This hawkish tone contributed to market repricing toward higher rates and increased the probability of a 25 bps increase.</p><div class="flex items-center gap-1.5 mt-3"><a href="https://www.stocktitan.net/articles/fed-rate-decision-june-17-2026" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" class="flex items-center justify-center rounded-md overflow-hidden bg-white" style="width:28px;height:28px;border:1px solid var(--color-pk-border)" data-state="closed" data-slot="tooltip-trigger"><img src="https://www.google.com/s2/favicons?domain=www.stocktitan.net&amp;sz=64" alt="StockTitan" referrerPolicy="no-referrer" width="18" height="18" loading="lazy" style="object-fit:contain"/></a><a href="https://www.welchforbes.com/insights/economic-outlook-july-2026/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" class="flex items-center justify-center rounded-md overflow-hidden bg-white" style="width:28px;height:28px;border:1px solid var(--color-pk-border)" data-state="closed" data-slot="tooltip-trigger"><img src="https://www.google.com/s2/favicons?domain=www.welchforbes.com&amp;sz=64" alt="Welch &amp; Forbes" referrerPolicy="no-referrer" width="18" height="18" loading="lazy" style="object-fit:contain"/></a></div></div></div><div class="flex gap-3 relative !h-0 !overflow-hidden !p-0 !m-0" style="content-visibility:hidden" inert="" aria-hidden="true"><div class="flex flex-col items-center shrink-0"><div class="w-px h-[7px] bg-pk-border"></div><div class="w-3 h-3 rounded-full border-2 border-pk-gray-300 bg-pk-surface shrink-0"></div><div class="w-px flex-1 bg-pk-border"></div></div><div class="flex-1 pb-8"><span class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary">Jun 17 2026</span><p class="text-body-base font-semibold text-pk-content-primary leading-5 mt-1">FOMC holds rates steady at 3.5%-3.75% amid elevated inflation</p><p class="flex items-center gap-1 text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary mt-0.5"><span>No change<!-- --> <!-- -->dips to<!-- --> <!-- -->75<!-- -->%</span><span class="inline-flex items-center gap-0.5 font-semibold text-pk-content-accent-red"><svg width="8" height="8" viewBox="0 0 12 12" fill="none" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><path d="M6.51952 9.5C6.28858 9.9 5.71123 9.9 5.48029 9.5L1.84298 3.2C1.61204 2.8 1.90072 2.3 2.3626 2.3L9.63721 2.3C10.0991 2.3 10.3878 2.8 10.1568 3.2L6.51952 9.5Z" fill="currentColor"></path></svg>2<!-- -->%</span></p><p class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-secondary leading-5 mt-1">At its June 16-17 meeting, the Federal Open Market Committee unanimously voted to maintain the federal funds rate target range at 3.5% to 3.75%, citing solid economic expansion but persistent inflation above the 2% target. This decision reflected a cautious approach despite inflationary pressures, with some members dissenting in favor of a rate hike.</p><div class="flex items-center gap-1.5 mt-3"><a href="https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomcminutes20260617.htm" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" class="flex items-center justify-center rounded-md overflow-hidden bg-white" style="width:28px;height:28px;border:1px solid var(--color-pk-border)" data-state="closed" data-slot="tooltip-trigger"><img src="https://www.google.com/s2/favicons?domain=www.federalreserve.gov&amp;sz=64" alt="federalreserve.gov" referrerPolicy="no-referrer" width="18" height="18" loading="lazy" style="object-fit:contain"/></a></div></div></div><div class="flex gap-3 relative !h-0 !overflow-hidden !p-0 !m-0" style="content-visibility:hidden" inert="" aria-hidden="true"><div class="flex flex-col items-center shrink-0"><div class="w-px h-[7px] bg-pk-border"></div><div class="w-3 h-3 rounded-full border-2 border-pk-gray-300 bg-pk-surface shrink-0"></div><div class="w-px flex-1 bg-pk-border"></div></div><div class="flex-1 pb-8"><span class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary">Jun 17 2026</span><p class="text-body-base font-semibold text-pk-content-primary leading-5 mt-1">Kevin Warsh Leads First FOMC Meeting, Fed Holds Rates at 3.50%–3.75%</p><p class="flex items-center gap-1 text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary mt-0.5"><span>No change<!-- --> <!-- -->dips to<!-- --> <!-- -->74<!-- -->%</span><span class="inline-flex items-center gap-0.5 font-semibold text-pk-content-accent-red"><svg width="8" height="8" viewBox="0 0 12 12" fill="none" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><path d="M6.51952 9.5C6.28858 9.9 5.71123 9.9 5.48029 9.5L1.84298 3.2C1.61204 2.8 1.90072 2.3 2.3626 2.3L9.63721 2.3C10.0991 2.3 10.3878 2.8 10.1568 3.2L6.51952 9.5Z" fill="currentColor"></path></svg>2<!-- -->%</span></p><p class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-secondary leading-5 mt-1">In his first meeting as Fed Chair, Kevin Warsh oversaw the decision to keep interest rates steady at 3.50%–3.75%. The brief statement emphasized elevated inflation and introduced institutional reforms, reinforcing market expectations of a cautious approach to rate changes in 2026.</p><div class="flex items-center gap-1.5 mt-3"><a href="https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/files/monetary20260617a1.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" class="flex items-center justify-center rounded-md overflow-hidden bg-white" style="width:28px;height:28px;border:1px solid var(--color-pk-border)" data-state="closed" data-slot="tooltip-trigger"><img src="https://www.google.com/s2/favicons?domain=www.federalreserve.gov&amp;sz=64" alt="Federal Reserve" referrerPolicy="no-referrer" width="18" height="18" loading="lazy" style="object-fit:contain"/></a></div></div></div><div class="flex gap-3 relative !h-0 !overflow-hidden !p-0 !m-0" style="content-visibility:hidden" inert="" aria-hidden="true"><div class="flex flex-col items-center shrink-0"><div class="w-px h-[7px] bg-pk-border"></div><div class="w-3 h-3 rounded-full border-2 border-pk-gray-300 bg-pk-surface shrink-0"></div><div class="w-px flex-1 bg-pk-border"></div></div><div class="flex-1 pb-8"><span class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary">Jun 17 2026</span><p class="text-body-base font-semibold text-pk-content-primary leading-5 mt-1">Kevin Warsh&#x27;s first FOMC meeting emphasizes price stability, holds rates steady</p><p class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-secondary leading-5 mt-1">At his first FOMC meeting as Fed Chair, Kevin Warsh maintained the federal funds rate at 3.5%-3.75%, signaling a focus on combating elevated inflation while deemphasizing maximum employment. This hawkish tone led markets to price in potential future hikes but no immediate change.</p><div class="flex items-center gap-1.5 mt-3"><a href="https://www.welchforbes.com/insights/economic-outlook-july-2026/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" class="flex items-center justify-center rounded-md overflow-hidden bg-white" style="width:28px;height:28px;border:1px solid var(--color-pk-border)" data-state="closed" data-slot="tooltip-trigger"><img src="https://www.google.com/s2/favicons?domain=www.welchforbes.com&amp;sz=64" alt="Welch &amp; Forbes" referrerPolicy="no-referrer" width="18" height="18" loading="lazy" style="object-fit:contain"/></a></div></div></div><div class="flex gap-3 relative !h-0 !overflow-hidden !p-0 !m-0" style="content-visibility:hidden" inert="" aria-hidden="true"><div class="flex flex-col items-center shrink-0"><div class="w-px h-[7px] bg-pk-border"></div><div class="w-3 h-3 rounded-full border-2 border-pk-gray-300 bg-pk-surface shrink-0"></div><div class="w-px flex-1 bg-pk-border"></div></div><div class="flex-1 pb-8"><span class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary">Jun 16 2026</span><p class="text-body-base font-semibold text-pk-content-primary leading-5 mt-1">Fed signals hawkish outlook, removing forward guidance on rate cuts</p><p class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-secondary leading-5 mt-1">At the June FOMC meeting, the Fed left rates steady but delivered a more hawkish message by removing prior forward guidance and signaling inflation risks remain, causing markets to reassess the likelihood of future hikes versus cuts.</p><div class="flex items-center gap-1.5 mt-3"><a href="https://www.ecmarkets.com/insights/fed-holds-rates-hawkish-hike-expectations/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" class="flex items-center justify-center rounded-md overflow-hidden bg-white" style="width:28px;height:28px;border:1px solid var(--color-pk-border)" data-state="closed" data-slot="tooltip-trigger"><img src="https://www.google.com/s2/favicons?domain=www.ecmarkets.com&amp;sz=64" alt="ECMarkets" referrerPolicy="no-referrer" width="18" height="18" loading="lazy" style="object-fit:contain"/></a></div></div></div><div class="flex gap-3 relative !h-0 !overflow-hidden !p-0 !m-0" style="content-visibility:hidden" inert="" aria-hidden="true"><div class="flex flex-col items-center shrink-0"><div class="w-px h-[7px] bg-pk-border"></div><div class="w-3 h-3 rounded-full border-2 border-pk-gray-300 bg-pk-surface shrink-0"></div><div class="w-px flex-1 bg-pk-border"></div></div><div class="flex-1 pb-8"><span class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary">Jun 16 2026</span><p class="text-body-base font-semibold text-pk-content-primary leading-5 mt-1">Federal Reserve maintains target federal funds rate at 3.50%-3.75% in June meeting</p><p class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-secondary leading-5 mt-1">The FOMC decided to keep rates steady amid persistent inflation and a resilient labor market, reflecting a split among policymakers on whether to cut or hold rates. This reinforced market expectations for no change in the upcoming September meeting.</p><div class="flex items-center gap-1.5 mt-3"><a href="https://finance.yahoo.com/personal-finance/banking/article/fed-rate-predictions-2026-154647304.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" class="flex items-center justify-center rounded-md overflow-hidden bg-white" style="width:28px;height:28px;border:1px solid var(--color-pk-border)" data-state="closed" data-slot="tooltip-trigger"><img src="https://www.google.com/s2/favicons?domain=finance.yahoo.com&amp;sz=64" alt="Yahoo Finance" referrerPolicy="no-referrer" width="18" height="18" loading="lazy" style="object-fit:contain"/></a></div></div></div><div class="flex gap-3 relative !h-0 !overflow-hidden !p-0 !m-0" style="content-visibility:hidden" inert="" aria-hidden="true"><div class="flex flex-col items-center shrink-0"><div class="w-px h-[7px] bg-pk-border"></div><div class="w-3 h-3 rounded-full border-2 border-pk-gray-300 bg-pk-surface shrink-0"></div><div class="w-px flex-1 bg-pk-border"></div></div><div class="flex-1 pb-8"><span class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary">Jun 16 2026</span><p class="text-body-base font-semibold text-pk-content-primary leading-5 mt-1">Federal Reserve signals hawkish outlook, keeping rates steady but hinting at possible hikes</p><p class="flex items-center gap-1 text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary mt-0.5"><span>25 bps increase<!-- --> <!-- -->surges to<!-- --> <!-- -->37<!-- -->%</span><span class="inline-flex items-center gap-0.5 font-semibold text-pk-content-accent-green"><svg width="8" height="8" viewBox="0 0 12 12" fill="none" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><path d="M6.51952 2.5C6.28858 2.1 5.71123 2.1 5.48029 2.5L1.84298 8.8C1.61204 9.2 1.90072 9.7 2.3626 9.7L9.63721 9.7C10.0991 9.7 10.3878 9.2 10.1568 8.8L6.51952 2.5Z" fill="currentColor"></path></svg>17<!-- -->%</span></p><p class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-secondary leading-5 mt-1">At the June meeting, the Fed held rates steady but issued a more hawkish statement and projections, causing markets to reassess expectations and increasing the probability of a 25 bps increase. Treasury yields and the US dollar rose in response.</p><div class="flex items-center gap-1.5 mt-3"><a href="https://www.ecmarkets.com/insights/fed-holds-rates-hawkish-hike-expectations/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" class="flex items-center justify-center rounded-md overflow-hidden bg-white" style="width:28px;height:28px;border:1px solid var(--color-pk-border)" data-state="closed" data-slot="tooltip-trigger"><img src="https://www.google.com/s2/favicons?domain=www.ecmarkets.com&amp;sz=64" alt="ECMarkets" referrerPolicy="no-referrer" width="18" height="18" loading="lazy" style="object-fit:contain"/></a></div></div></div><div class="flex gap-3 relative !h-0 !overflow-hidden !p-0 !m-0" style="content-visibility:hidden" inert="" aria-hidden="true"><div class="flex flex-col items-center shrink-0"><div class="w-px h-[7px] bg-pk-border"></div><div class="w-3 h-3 rounded-full border-2 border-pk-gray-300 bg-pk-surface shrink-0"></div><div class="w-px flex-1 bg-pk-border"></div></div><div class="flex-1 pb-8"><span class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary">Jun 16 2026</span><p class="text-body-base font-semibold text-pk-content-primary leading-5 mt-1">Fed signals cautious outlook with no rate cuts despite inflation pressures</p><p class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-secondary leading-5 mt-1">At the June FOMC meeting, the Fed maintained rates and signaled a more hawkish stance, emphasizing inflation risks and removing forward guidance on cuts. This caused markets to reassess expectations, increasing the probability of no change or a rate hike in September.</p><div class="flex items-center gap-1.5 mt-3"><a href="https://www.ecmarkets.com/insights/fed-holds-rates-hawkish-hike-expectations/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" class="flex items-center justify-center rounded-md overflow-hidden bg-white" style="width:28px;height:28px;border:1px solid var(--color-pk-border)" data-state="closed" data-slot="tooltip-trigger"><img src="https://www.google.com/s2/favicons?domain=www.ecmarkets.com&amp;sz=64" alt="ECMarkets" referrerPolicy="no-referrer" width="18" height="18" loading="lazy" style="object-fit:contain"/></a></div></div></div><div class="flex gap-3 relative !h-0 !overflow-hidden !p-0 !m-0" style="content-visibility:hidden" inert="" aria-hidden="true"><div class="flex flex-col items-center shrink-0"><div class="w-px h-[7px] bg-pk-border"></div><div class="w-3 h-3 rounded-full border-2 border-pk-gray-300 bg-pk-surface shrink-0"></div><div class="w-px flex-1 bg-pk-border"></div></div><div class="flex-1 pb-8"><span class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary">Jun 16 2026</span><p class="text-body-base font-semibold text-pk-content-primary leading-5 mt-1">FOMC holds rates steady, removes easing bias amid inflation concerns</p><p class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-secondary leading-5 mt-1">During the June 16-17 meeting, the Fed kept rates unchanged at 3.50%-3.75% and removed language suggesting an easing bias, signaling a more cautious approach due to persistent inflation above target despite solid economic growth. This hawkish tone influenced market expectations towards a possible rate hike later in the year.</p><div class="flex items-center gap-1.5 mt-3"><a href="https://www.actionforex.com/central-banks/federal-reserve/646610-fed-minutes-of-the-federal-open-market-committee-39/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" class="flex items-center justify-center rounded-md overflow-hidden bg-white" style="width:28px;height:28px;border:1px solid var(--color-pk-border)" data-state="closed" data-slot="tooltip-trigger"><img src="https://www.google.com/s2/favicons?domain=www.actionforex.com&amp;sz=64" alt="ActionForex" referrerPolicy="no-referrer" width="18" height="18" loading="lazy" style="object-fit:contain"/></a></div></div></div><div class="flex gap-3 relative !h-0 !overflow-hidden !p-0 !m-0" style="content-visibility:hidden" inert="" aria-hidden="true"><div class="flex flex-col items-center shrink-0"><div class="w-px h-[7px] bg-pk-border"></div><div class="w-3 h-3 rounded-full border-2 border-pk-gray-300 bg-pk-surface shrink-0"></div><div class="w-px flex-1 bg-pk-border"></div></div><div class="flex-1 pb-8"><span class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary">Jun 16 2026</span><p class="text-body-base font-semibold text-pk-content-primary leading-5 mt-1">Federal Reserve holds rates steady but signals hawkish outlook amid inflation concerns</p><p class="flex items-center gap-1 text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary mt-0.5"><span>25 bps increase<!-- --> <!-- -->surges to<!-- --> <!-- -->39<!-- -->%</span><span class="inline-flex items-center gap-0.5 font-semibold text-pk-content-accent-green"><svg width="8" height="8" viewBox="0 0 12 12" fill="none" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><path d="M6.51952 2.5C6.28858 2.1 5.71123 2.1 5.48029 2.5L1.84298 8.8C1.61204 9.2 1.90072 9.7 2.3626 9.7L9.63721 9.7C10.0991 9.7 10.3878 9.2 10.1568 8.8L6.51952 2.5Z" fill="currentColor"></path></svg>23<!-- -->%</span></p><p class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-secondary leading-5 mt-1">In June, the Fed kept rates unchanged at 3.5%-3.75% but delivered a hawkish message, emphasizing inflation risks and removing forward guidance. This caused markets to reassess expectations, increasing the probability of a 25 bps rate hike in September as inflation remained above target despite a weakening labor market.</p><div class="flex items-center gap-1.5 mt-3"><a href="https://www.ecmarkets.com/insights/fed-holds-rates-hawkish-hike-expectations/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" class="flex items-center justify-center rounded-md overflow-hidden bg-white" style="width:28px;height:28px;border:1px solid var(--color-pk-border)" data-state="closed" data-slot="tooltip-trigger"><img src="https://www.google.com/s2/favicons?domain=www.ecmarkets.com&amp;sz=64" alt="ECMarkets" referrerPolicy="no-referrer" width="18" height="18" loading="lazy" style="object-fit:contain"/></a></div></div></div><div class="flex gap-3 relative !h-0 !overflow-hidden !p-0 !m-0" style="content-visibility:hidden" inert="" aria-hidden="true"><div class="flex flex-col items-center shrink-0"><div class="w-px h-[7px] bg-pk-border"></div><div class="w-3 h-3 rounded-full border-2 border-pk-gray-300 bg-pk-surface shrink-0"></div><div class="w-px flex-1 bg-pk-border"></div></div><div class="flex-1 pb-8"><span class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary">Jun 10 2026</span><p class="text-body-base font-semibold text-pk-content-primary leading-5 mt-1">U.S. inflation rises to 4.2% in May, highest in three years</p><p class="flex items-center gap-1 text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary mt-0.5"><span>25 bps increase<!-- --> <!-- -->rises to<!-- --> <!-- -->16<!-- -->%</span><span class="inline-flex items-center gap-0.5 font-semibold text-pk-content-accent-green"><svg width="8" height="8" viewBox="0 0 12 12" fill="none" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><path d="M6.51952 2.5C6.28858 2.1 5.71123 2.1 5.48029 2.5L1.84298 8.8C1.61204 9.2 1.90072 9.7 2.3626 9.7L9.63721 9.7C10.0991 9.7 10.3878 9.2 10.1568 8.8L6.51952 2.5Z" fill="currentColor"></path></svg>4<!-- -->%</span></p><p class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-secondary leading-5 mt-1">Consumer prices surged 4.2% year-over-year in May, driven largely by energy price increases due to the Iran conflict, complicating the Fed&#x27;s inflation outlook and increasing expectations for rate hikes. This inflation spike reinforced the Fed&#x27;s cautious stance and hawkish projections in June.</p><div class="flex items-center gap-1.5 mt-3"><a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-06-03/fed-official-says-rate-hikes-may-be-needed-to-cool-inflation" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" class="flex items-center justify-center rounded-md overflow-hidden bg-white" style="width:28px;height:28px;border:1px solid var(--color-pk-border)" data-state="closed" data-slot="tooltip-trigger"><img src="https://www.google.com/s2/favicons?domain=www.bloomberg.com&amp;sz=64" alt="Bloomberg" referrerPolicy="no-referrer" width="18" height="18" loading="lazy" style="object-fit:contain"/></a><a href="https://eciks.org/7992-59529-economic-calendar-may-inflation-4-2-percent" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" class="flex items-center justify-center rounded-md overflow-hidden bg-white" style="width:28px;height:28px;border:1px solid var(--color-pk-border)" data-state="closed" data-slot="tooltip-trigger"><img src="https://www.google.com/s2/favicons?domain=eciks.org&amp;sz=64" alt="CNBC" referrerPolicy="no-referrer" width="18" height="18" loading="lazy" style="object-fit:contain"/></a></div></div></div><div class="flex gap-3 relative !h-0 !overflow-hidden !p-0 !m-0" style="content-visibility:hidden" inert="" aria-hidden="true"><div class="flex flex-col items-center shrink-0"><div class="w-px h-[7px] bg-pk-border"></div><div class="w-3 h-3 rounded-full border-2 border-pk-gray-300 bg-pk-surface shrink-0"></div><div class="w-px flex-1 bg-pk-border"></div></div><div class="flex-1 pb-8"><span class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary">Jun 10 2026</span><p class="text-body-base font-semibold text-pk-content-primary leading-5 mt-1">US Consumer Price Index rises 4.2% in May, highest in three years</p><p class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-secondary leading-5 mt-1">The May 2026 CPI report showed a 4.2% year-over-year increase, driven primarily by a 40% spike in gasoline prices, signaling persistent inflationary pressures. This data reinforced market expectations that the Federal Reserve would maintain or potentially raise interest rates to combat inflation.</p><div class="flex items-center gap-1.5 mt-3"><a href="https://www.wichitaliberty.org/economics/may-2026-cpi-inflation-report-4-percent/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" class="flex items-center justify-center rounded-md overflow-hidden bg-white" style="width:28px;height:28px;border:1px solid var(--color-pk-border)" data-state="closed" data-slot="tooltip-trigger"><img src="https://www.google.com/s2/favicons?domain=www.wichitaliberty.org&amp;sz=64" alt="WichitaLiberty" referrerPolicy="no-referrer" width="18" height="18" loading="lazy" style="object-fit:contain"/></a></div></div></div><div class="flex gap-3 relative !h-0 !overflow-hidden !p-0 !m-0" style="content-visibility:hidden" inert="" aria-hidden="true"><div class="flex flex-col items-center shrink-0"><div class="w-px h-[7px] bg-pk-border"></div><div class="w-3 h-3 rounded-full border-2 border-pk-gray-300 bg-pk-surface shrink-0"></div><div class="w-px flex-1 bg-pk-border"></div></div><div class="flex-1 pb-8"><span class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary">Jun 10 2026</span><p class="text-body-base font-semibold text-pk-content-primary leading-5 mt-1">May 2026 CPI report shows inflation at 4.2%, highest in three years</p><p class="flex items-center gap-1 text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary mt-0.5"><span>25 bps increase<!-- --> <!-- -->rises to<!-- --> <!-- -->16<!-- -->%</span><span class="inline-flex items-center gap-0.5 font-semibold text-pk-content-accent-green"><svg width="8" height="8" viewBox="0 0 12 12" fill="none" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><path d="M6.51952 2.5C6.28858 2.1 5.71123 2.1 5.48029 2.5L1.84298 8.8C1.61204 9.2 1.90072 9.7 2.3626 9.7L9.63721 9.7C10.0991 9.7 10.3878 9.2 10.1568 8.8L6.51952 2.5Z" fill="currentColor"></path></svg>4<!-- -->%</span></p><p class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-secondary leading-5 mt-1">The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics released the May 2026 Consumer Price Index report showing a 4.2% year-over-year inflation rate, driven largely by a 40% spike in gasoline prices due to Middle East conflict. This report heightened concerns about persistent inflation, influencing the Fed&#x27;s hawkish tone at the upcoming June meeting.</p><div class="flex items-center gap-1.5 mt-3"><a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2026/06/10/cpi-inflation-report-may-2026.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" class="flex items-center justify-center rounded-md overflow-hidden bg-white" style="width:28px;height:28px;border:1px solid var(--color-pk-border)" data-state="closed" data-slot="tooltip-trigger"><img src="https://www.google.com/s2/favicons?domain=www.cnbc.com&amp;sz=64" alt="CNBC" referrerPolicy="no-referrer" width="18" height="18" loading="lazy" style="object-fit:contain"/></a></div></div></div><div class="flex gap-3 relative !h-0 !overflow-hidden !p-0 !m-0" style="content-visibility:hidden" inert="" aria-hidden="true"><div class="flex flex-col items-center shrink-0"><div class="w-px h-[7px] bg-pk-border"></div><div class="w-3 h-3 rounded-full border-2 border-pk-gray-300 bg-pk-surface shrink-0"></div><div class="w-px flex-1 bg-pk-border"></div></div><div class="flex-1 pb-8"><span class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary">Jun 10 2026</span><p class="text-body-base font-semibold text-pk-content-primary leading-5 mt-1">US CPI inflation rises to 4.2%, highest in three years</p><p class="flex items-center gap-1 text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary mt-0.5"><span>25 bps increase<!-- --> <!-- -->jumps to<!-- --> <!-- -->23<!-- -->%</span><span class="inline-flex items-center gap-0.5 font-semibold text-pk-content-accent-green"><svg width="8" height="8" viewBox="0 0 12 12" fill="none" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><path d="M6.51952 2.5C6.28858 2.1 5.71123 2.1 5.48029 2.5L1.84298 8.8C1.61204 9.2 1.90072 9.7 2.3626 9.7L9.63721 9.7C10.0991 9.7 10.3878 9.2 10.1568 8.8L6.51952 2.5Z" fill="currentColor"></path></svg>7<!-- -->%</span></p><p class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-secondary leading-5 mt-1">The Consumer Price Index report released on June 10 showed inflation surged to 4.2% year-over-year in May 2026, driven largely by energy prices, intensifying pressure on the Federal Reserve to consider tightening monetary policy.</p><div class="flex items-center gap-1.5 mt-3"><a href="https://www.wichitaliberty.org/economics/may-2026-cpi-inflation-report-4-percent/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" class="flex items-center justify-center rounded-md overflow-hidden bg-white" style="width:28px;height:28px;border:1px solid var(--color-pk-border)" data-state="closed" data-slot="tooltip-trigger"><img src="https://www.google.com/s2/favicons?domain=www.wichitaliberty.org&amp;sz=64" alt="Wichita Liberty" referrerPolicy="no-referrer" width="18" height="18" loading="lazy" style="object-fit:contain"/></a></div></div></div><div class="flex gap-3 relative !h-0 !overflow-hidden !p-0 !m-0" style="content-visibility:hidden" inert="" aria-hidden="true"><div class="flex flex-col items-center shrink-0"><div class="w-px h-[7px] bg-pk-border"></div><div class="w-3 h-3 rounded-full border-2 border-pk-gray-300 bg-pk-surface shrink-0"></div><div class="w-px flex-1 bg-pk-border"></div></div><div class="flex-1 pb-8"><span class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary">Jun 10 2026</span><p class="text-body-base font-semibold text-pk-content-primary leading-5 mt-1">May Consumer Price Index shows highest inflation in three years, influencing Fed outlook</p><p class="flex items-center gap-1 text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary mt-0.5"><span>25 bps increase<!-- --> <!-- -->plunges to<!-- --> <!-- -->10<!-- -->%</span><span class="inline-flex items-center gap-0.5 font-semibold text-pk-content-accent-red"><svg width="8" height="8" viewBox="0 0 12 12" fill="none" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><path d="M6.51952 9.5C6.28858 9.9 5.71123 9.9 5.48029 9.5L1.84298 3.2C1.61204 2.8 1.90072 2.3 2.3626 2.3L9.63721 2.3C10.0991 2.3 10.3878 2.8 10.1568 3.2L6.51952 9.5Z" fill="currentColor"></path></svg>25<!-- -->%</span></p><p class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-secondary leading-5 mt-1">The May CPI rose 4.2% year-over-year, the highest in three years, driven by energy price increases linked to the Iran War. This inflation data supported the Fed&#x27;s cautious stance and hawkish signals for potential rate hikes later in 2026.</p><div class="flex items-center gap-1.5 mt-3"><a href="https://www.welchforbes.com/insights/economic-outlook-july-2026/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" class="flex items-center justify-center rounded-md overflow-hidden bg-white" style="width:28px;height:28px;border:1px solid var(--color-pk-border)" data-state="closed" data-slot="tooltip-trigger"><img src="https://www.google.com/s2/favicons?domain=www.welchforbes.com&amp;sz=64" alt="Welch &amp; Forbes" referrerPolicy="no-referrer" width="18" height="18" loading="lazy" style="object-fit:contain"/></a></div></div></div><div class="flex gap-3 relative !h-0 !overflow-hidden !p-0 !m-0" style="content-visibility:hidden" inert="" aria-hidden="true"><div class="flex flex-col items-center shrink-0"><div class="w-px h-[7px] bg-pk-border"></div><div class="w-3 h-3 rounded-full border-2 border-pk-gray-300 bg-pk-surface shrink-0"></div><div class="w-px flex-1 bg-pk-border"></div></div><div class="flex-1 pb-8"><span class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary">Jun 10 2026</span><p class="text-body-base font-semibold text-pk-content-primary leading-5 mt-1">U.S. Consumer Price Index for May 2026 shows inflation at 4.2%, highest in 3 years</p><p class="flex items-center gap-1 text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary mt-0.5"><span>25 bps increase<!-- --> <!-- -->surges to<!-- --> <!-- -->39<!-- -->%</span><span class="inline-flex items-center gap-0.5 font-semibold text-pk-content-accent-green"><svg width="8" height="8" viewBox="0 0 12 12" fill="none" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><path d="M6.51952 2.5C6.28858 2.1 5.71123 2.1 5.48029 2.5L1.84298 8.8C1.61204 9.2 1.90072 9.7 2.3626 9.7L9.63721 9.7C10.0991 9.7 10.3878 9.2 10.1568 8.8L6.51952 2.5Z" fill="currentColor"></path></svg>23<!-- -->%</span></p><p class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-secondary leading-5 mt-1">The May 2026 CPI report revealed a 4.2% year-over-year inflation rate, driven largely by energy price increases amid Middle East tensions, signaling persistent inflationary pressures that challenged expectations of rate cuts and supported a hawkish Fed outlook.</p><div class="flex items-center gap-1.5 mt-3"><a href="https://www.wichitaliberty.org/economics/may-2026-cpi-inflation-report-4-percent/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" class="flex items-center justify-center rounded-md overflow-hidden bg-white" style="width:28px;height:28px;border:1px solid var(--color-pk-border)" data-state="closed" data-slot="tooltip-trigger"><img src="https://www.google.com/s2/favicons?domain=www.wichitaliberty.org&amp;sz=64" alt="WichitaLiberty" referrerPolicy="no-referrer" width="18" height="18" loading="lazy" style="object-fit:contain"/></a></div></div></div><div class="flex gap-3 relative !h-0 !overflow-hidden !p-0 !m-0" style="content-visibility:hidden" inert="" aria-hidden="true"><div class="flex flex-col items-center shrink-0"><div class="w-px h-[7px] bg-pk-border"></div><div class="w-3 h-3 rounded-full border-2 border-pk-gray-300 bg-pk-surface shrink-0"></div><div class="w-px flex-1 bg-pk-border"></div></div><div class="flex-1 pb-8"><span class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary">Jun 9 2026</span><p class="text-body-base font-semibold text-pk-content-primary leading-5 mt-1">Economists Poll Shows Majority Expect Fed to Hold Rates Through 2026</p><p class="flex items-center gap-1 text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary mt-0.5"><span>No change<!-- --> <!-- -->drops to<!-- --> <!-- -->68<!-- -->%</span><span class="inline-flex items-center gap-0.5 font-semibold text-pk-content-accent-red"><svg width="8" height="8" viewBox="0 0 12 12" fill="none" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><path d="M6.51952 9.5C6.28858 9.9 5.71123 9.9 5.48029 9.5L1.84298 3.2C1.61204 2.8 1.90072 2.3 2.3626 2.3L9.63721 2.3C10.0991 2.3 10.3878 2.8 10.1568 3.2L6.51952 9.5Z" fill="currentColor"></path></svg>9<!-- -->%</span></p><p class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-secondary leading-5 mt-1">A Reuters poll published on June 9, 2026, revealed that a strong majority of economists expect the Federal Reserve to keep interest rates steady for the remainder of 2026 due to persistent war-driven inflation. This consensus marked a shift from earlier expectations of rate cuts, reinforcing market pricing for no change or possible hikes later in the year.</p><div class="flex items-center gap-1.5 mt-3"><a href="https://www.reuters.com/business/fed-hold-rates-this-year-cut-calls-fade-war-inflation-persists-economists-say-2026-06-09/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" class="flex items-center justify-center rounded-md overflow-hidden bg-white" style="width:28px;height:28px;border:1px solid var(--color-pk-border)" data-state="closed" data-slot="tooltip-trigger"><img src="https://www.google.com/s2/favicons?domain=www.reuters.com&amp;sz=64" alt="Reuters" referrerPolicy="no-referrer" width="18" height="18" loading="lazy" style="object-fit:contain"/></a></div></div></div><div class="flex gap-3 relative !h-0 !overflow-hidden !p-0 !m-0" style="content-visibility:hidden" inert="" aria-hidden="true"><div class="flex flex-col items-center shrink-0"><div class="w-px h-[7px] bg-pk-border"></div><div class="w-3 h-3 rounded-full border-2 border-pk-gray-300 bg-pk-surface shrink-0"></div><div class="w-px flex-1 bg-pk-border"></div></div><div class="flex-1 pb-8"><span class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary">Jun 9 2026</span><p class="text-body-base font-semibold text-pk-content-primary leading-5 mt-1">Economists largely expect Fed to hold rates for rest of 2026 amid persistent inflation</p><p class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-secondary leading-5 mt-1">A Reuters poll showed a strong majority of economists forecast the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates steady through the rest of 2026, reflecting persistent inflation driven by war-related factors. This consensus marked a shift from earlier expectations of rate cuts, reinforcing market pricing of no change in the near term.</p><div class="flex items-center gap-1.5 mt-3"><a href="https://www.reuters.com/business/fed-hold-rates-this-year-cut-calls-fade-war-inflation-persists-economists-say-2026-06-09/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" class="flex items-center justify-center rounded-md overflow-hidden bg-white" style="width:28px;height:28px;border:1px solid var(--color-pk-border)" data-state="closed" data-slot="tooltip-trigger"><img src="https://www.google.com/s2/favicons?domain=www.reuters.com&amp;sz=64" alt="Reuters" referrerPolicy="no-referrer" width="18" height="18" loading="lazy" style="object-fit:contain"/></a></div></div></div><div class="flex gap-3 relative !h-0 !overflow-hidden !p-0 !m-0" style="content-visibility:hidden" inert="" aria-hidden="true"><div class="flex flex-col items-center shrink-0"><div class="w-px h-[7px] bg-pk-border"></div><div class="w-3 h-3 rounded-full border-2 border-pk-gray-300 bg-pk-surface shrink-0"></div><div class="w-px flex-1 bg-pk-border"></div></div><div class="flex-1 pb-8"><span class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary">Jun 9 2026</span><p class="text-body-base font-semibold text-pk-content-primary leading-5 mt-1">Reuters poll shows majority expect Fed to hold rates for rest of 2026 amid persistent inflation</p><p class="flex items-center gap-1 text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary mt-0.5"><span>No change<!-- --> <!-- -->surges to<!-- --> <!-- -->39<!-- -->%</span><span class="inline-flex items-center gap-0.5 font-semibold text-pk-content-accent-green"><svg width="8" height="8" viewBox="0 0 12 12" fill="none" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><path d="M6.51952 2.5C6.28858 2.1 5.71123 2.1 5.48029 2.5L1.84298 8.8C1.61204 9.2 1.90072 9.7 2.3626 9.7L9.63721 9.7C10.0991 9.7 10.3878 9.2 10.1568 8.8L6.51952 2.5Z" fill="currentColor"></path></svg>19<!-- -->%</span></p><p class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-secondary leading-5 mt-1">A Reuters poll of economists revealed that nearly 70% expect the Federal Reserve to keep interest rates steady through 2026, reflecting concerns over persistent inflation driven by war-related factors. Despite this, futures markets price in at least one rate hike by year-end, indicating some uncertainty.</p><div class="flex items-center gap-1.5 mt-3"><a href="https://www.reuters.com/business/fed-hold-rates-this-year-cut-calls-fade-war-inflation-persists-economists-say-2026-06-09/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" class="flex items-center justify-center rounded-md overflow-hidden bg-white" style="width:28px;height:28px;border:1px solid var(--color-pk-border)" data-state="closed" data-slot="tooltip-trigger"><img src="https://www.google.com/s2/favicons?domain=www.reuters.com&amp;sz=64" alt="Reuters" referrerPolicy="no-referrer" width="18" height="18" loading="lazy" style="object-fit:contain"/></a></div></div></div><div class="flex gap-3 relative !h-0 !overflow-hidden !p-0 !m-0" style="content-visibility:hidden" inert="" aria-hidden="true"><div class="flex flex-col items-center shrink-0"><div class="w-px h-[7px] bg-pk-border"></div><div class="w-3 h-3 rounded-full border-2 border-pk-gray-300 bg-pk-surface shrink-0"></div><div class="w-px flex-1 bg-pk-border"></div></div><div class="flex-1 pb-8"><span class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary">Jun 9 2026</span><p class="text-body-base font-semibold text-pk-content-primary leading-5 mt-1">Majority of economists expect Fed to hold rates for rest of 2026 amid persistent inflation</p><p class="flex items-center gap-1 text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary mt-0.5"><span>No change<!-- --> <!-- -->jumps to<!-- --> <!-- -->57<!-- -->%</span><span class="inline-flex items-center gap-0.5 font-semibold text-pk-content-accent-green"><svg width="8" height="8" viewBox="0 0 12 12" fill="none" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><path d="M6.51952 2.5C6.28858 2.1 5.71123 2.1 5.48029 2.5L1.84298 8.8C1.61204 9.2 1.90072 9.7 2.3626 9.7L9.63721 9.7C10.0991 9.7 10.3878 9.2 10.1568 8.8L6.51952 2.5Z" fill="currentColor"></path></svg>7<!-- -->%</span></p><p class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-secondary leading-5 mt-1">A Reuters poll showed that nearly 70% of economists forecast the Federal Reserve would keep its key interest rate unchanged through the rest of 2026, reflecting concerns over persistent inflation driven by geopolitical tensions and energy prices. This consensus marked a shift away from earlier expectations of rate cuts, reinforcing market pricing for a stable or higher rate environment.</p><div class="flex items-center gap-1.5 mt-3"><a href="https://www.reuters.com/business/fed-hold-rates-this-year-cut-calls-fade-war-inflation-persists-economists-say-2026-06-09/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" class="flex items-center justify-center rounded-md overflow-hidden bg-white" style="width:28px;height:28px;border:1px solid var(--color-pk-border)" data-state="closed" data-slot="tooltip-trigger"><img src="https://www.google.com/s2/favicons?domain=www.reuters.com&amp;sz=64" alt="Reuters" referrerPolicy="no-referrer" width="18" height="18" loading="lazy" style="object-fit:contain"/></a></div></div></div><div class="flex gap-3 relative !h-0 !overflow-hidden !p-0 !m-0" style="content-visibility:hidden" inert="" aria-hidden="true"><div class="flex flex-col items-center shrink-0"><div class="w-px h-[7px] bg-pk-border"></div><div class="w-3 h-3 rounded-full border-2 border-pk-gray-300 bg-pk-surface shrink-0"></div><div class="w-px flex-1 bg-pk-border"></div></div><div class="flex-1 pb-8"><span class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary">Jun 9 2026</span><p class="text-body-base font-semibold text-pk-content-primary leading-5 mt-1">Economists predict Fed will hold rates for rest of 2026 amid persistent inflation</p><p class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-secondary leading-5 mt-1">A Reuters poll showed a strong majority of economists expect the Federal Reserve to keep interest rates steady through 2026 due to ongoing inflation pressures driven by war-related supply shocks and resilient economic indicators, reducing expectations for rate cuts this year.</p><div class="flex items-center gap-1.5 mt-3"><a href="https://www.reuters.com/business/fed-hold-rates-this-year-cut-calls-fade-war-inflation-persists-economists-say-2026-06-09/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" class="flex items-center justify-center rounded-md overflow-hidden bg-white" style="width:28px;height:28px;border:1px solid var(--color-pk-border)" data-state="closed" data-slot="tooltip-trigger"><img src="https://www.google.com/s2/favicons?domain=www.reuters.com&amp;sz=64" alt="Reuters" referrerPolicy="no-referrer" width="18" height="18" loading="lazy" style="object-fit:contain"/></a></div></div></div><div class="flex gap-3 relative !h-0 !overflow-hidden !p-0 !m-0" style="content-visibility:hidden" inert="" aria-hidden="true"><div class="flex flex-col items-center shrink-0"><div class="w-px h-[7px] bg-pk-border"></div><div class="w-3 h-3 rounded-full border-2 border-pk-gray-300 bg-pk-surface shrink-0"></div><div class="w-px flex-1 bg-pk-border"></div></div><div class="flex-1 pb-8"><span class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary">Jun 5 2026</span><p class="text-body-base font-semibold text-pk-content-primary leading-5 mt-1">May 2026 jobs report shows strong employment growth with 172,000 jobs added</p><p class="flex items-center gap-1 text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary mt-0.5"><span>25 bps increase<!-- --> <!-- -->rises to<!-- --> <!-- -->16<!-- -->%</span><span class="inline-flex items-center gap-0.5 font-semibold text-pk-content-accent-green"><svg width="8" height="8" viewBox="0 0 12 12" fill="none" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><path d="M6.51952 2.5C6.28858 2.1 5.71123 2.1 5.48029 2.5L1.84298 8.8C1.61204 9.2 1.90072 9.7 2.3626 9.7L9.63721 9.7C10.0991 9.7 10.3878 9.2 10.1568 8.8L6.51952 2.5Z" fill="currentColor"></path></svg>4<!-- -->%</span></p><p class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-secondary leading-5 mt-1">The May 2026 jobs report revealed a stronger-than-expected labor market with 172,000 jobs added, reinforcing the Fed&#x27;s hawkish stance due to resilient employment and supporting expectations of future rate hikes.</p><div class="flex items-center gap-1.5 mt-3"><a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2026/06/05/jobs-report-may-2026.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" class="flex items-center justify-center rounded-md overflow-hidden bg-white" style="width:28px;height:28px;border:1px solid var(--color-pk-border)" data-state="closed" data-slot="tooltip-trigger"><img src="https://www.google.com/s2/favicons?domain=www.cnbc.com&amp;sz=64" alt="CNBC" referrerPolicy="no-referrer" width="18" height="18" loading="lazy" style="object-fit:contain"/></a></div></div></div><div class="flex gap-3 relative !h-0 !overflow-hidden !p-0 !m-0" style="content-visibility:hidden" inert="" aria-hidden="true"><div class="flex flex-col items-center shrink-0"><div class="w-px h-[7px] bg-pk-border"></div><div class="w-3 h-3 rounded-full border-2 border-pk-gray-300 bg-pk-surface shrink-0"></div><div class="w-px flex-1 bg-pk-border"></div></div><div class="flex-1 pb-8"><span class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary">Jun 5 2026</span><p class="text-body-base font-semibold text-pk-content-primary leading-5 mt-1">May 2026 Nonfarm Payrolls report shows strong job growth of 172,000</p><p class="flex items-center gap-1 text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary mt-0.5"><span>25 bps increase<!-- --> <!-- -->jumps to<!-- --> <!-- -->21<!-- -->%</span><span class="inline-flex items-center gap-0.5 font-semibold text-pk-content-accent-green"><svg width="8" height="8" viewBox="0 0 12 12" fill="none" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><path d="M6.51952 2.5C6.28858 2.1 5.71123 2.1 5.48029 2.5L1.84298 8.8C1.61204 9.2 1.90072 9.7 2.3626 9.7L9.63721 9.7C10.0991 9.7 10.3878 9.2 10.1568 8.8L6.51952 2.5Z" fill="currentColor"></path></svg>5<!-- -->%</span></p><p class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-secondary leading-5 mt-1">The May 2026 jobs report exceeded expectations with 172,000 new jobs added, reinforcing the Fed&#x27;s hawkish stance by demonstrating labor market resilience despite inflationary pressures, increasing the likelihood of rate hikes later in the year.</p><div class="flex items-center gap-1.5 mt-3"><a href="https://www.brokerxplorer.com/news/us-dollar-surges-on-strong-nonfarm-payrolls-report-7791" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" class="flex items-center justify-center rounded-md overflow-hidden bg-white" style="width:28px;height:28px;border:1px solid var(--color-pk-border)" data-state="closed" data-slot="tooltip-trigger"><img src="https://www.google.com/s2/favicons?domain=www.brokerxplorer.com&amp;sz=64" alt="BrokerXplorer" referrerPolicy="no-referrer" width="18" height="18" loading="lazy" style="object-fit:contain"/></a></div></div></div><div class="flex gap-3 relative !h-0 !overflow-hidden !p-0 !m-0" style="content-visibility:hidden" inert="" aria-hidden="true"><div class="flex flex-col items-center shrink-0"><div class="w-px h-[7px] bg-pk-border"></div><div class="w-3 h-3 rounded-full border-2 border-pk-gray-300 bg-pk-surface shrink-0"></div><div class="w-px flex-1 bg-pk-border"></div></div><div class="flex-1 pb-8"><span class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary">Jun 4 2026</span><p class="text-body-base font-semibold text-pk-content-primary leading-5 mt-1">Vice Chair Michelle Bowman testifies on supervision and regulation</p><p class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-secondary leading-5 mt-1">Bowman&#x27;s testimony highlighted regulatory perspectives amid economic uncertainties, indirectly supporting the Fed&#x27;s cautious approach to interest rates and influencing market sentiment toward steady policy.</p><div class="flex items-center gap-1.5 mt-3"><a href="https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/testimony/bowman20260604a.htm" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" class="flex items-center justify-center rounded-md overflow-hidden bg-white" style="width:28px;height:28px;border:1px solid var(--color-pk-border)" data-state="closed" data-slot="tooltip-trigger"><img src="https://www.google.com/s2/favicons?domain=www.federalreserve.gov&amp;sz=64" alt="Federal Reserve Board" referrerPolicy="no-referrer" width="18" height="18" loading="lazy" style="object-fit:contain"/></a></div></div></div><div class="flex gap-3 relative !h-0 !overflow-hidden !p-0 !m-0" style="content-visibility:hidden" inert="" aria-hidden="true"><div class="flex flex-col items-center shrink-0"><div class="w-px h-[7px] bg-pk-border"></div><div class="w-3 h-3 rounded-full border-2 border-pk-gray-300 bg-pk-surface shrink-0"></div><div class="w-px flex-1 bg-pk-border"></div></div><div class="flex-1 pb-8"><span class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary">May 31 2026</span><p class="text-body-base font-semibold text-pk-content-primary leading-5 mt-1">Jerome Powell defends Fed independence in JFK award speech</p><p class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-secondary leading-5 mt-1">Former Fed Chair Jerome Powell publicly defended the Federal Reserve&#x27;s independence against political pressure, emphasizing the importance of non-political monetary policy. This reinforced market confidence in the Fed&#x27;s commitment to its dual mandate, supporting expectations of steady rates.</p><div class="flex items-center gap-1.5 mt-3"><a href="https://www.pbs.org/newshour/politics/jerome-powell-uses-award-speech-to-warn-against-political-pressure-on-fed-courts-and-schools" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" class="flex items-center justify-center rounded-md overflow-hidden bg-white" style="width:28px;height:28px;border:1px solid var(--color-pk-border)" data-state="closed" data-slot="tooltip-trigger"><img src="https://www.google.com/s2/favicons?domain=www.pbs.org&amp;sz=64" alt="PBS News" referrerPolicy="no-referrer" width="18" height="18" loading="lazy" style="object-fit:contain"/></a></div></div></div><div class="flex gap-3 relative !h-0 !overflow-hidden !p-0 !m-0" style="content-visibility:hidden" inert="" aria-hidden="true"><div class="flex flex-col items-center shrink-0"><div class="w-px h-[7px] bg-pk-border"></div><div class="w-3 h-3 rounded-full border-2 border-pk-gray-300 bg-pk-surface shrink-0"></div><div class="w-px flex-1 bg-pk-border"></div></div><div class="flex-1 pb-8"><span class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary">May 29 2026</span><p class="text-body-base font-semibold text-pk-content-primary leading-5 mt-1">Fed officials signal readiness to raise rates if inflation persists amid Middle East conflict</p><p class="flex items-center gap-1 text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary mt-0.5"><span>No change<!-- --> <!-- -->surges to<!-- --> <!-- -->81<!-- -->%</span><span class="inline-flex items-center gap-0.5 font-semibold text-pk-content-accent-green"><svg width="8" height="8" viewBox="0 0 12 12" fill="none" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><path d="M6.51952 2.5C6.28858 2.1 5.71123 2.1 5.48029 2.5L1.84298 8.8C1.61204 9.2 1.90072 9.7 2.3626 9.7L9.63721 9.7C10.0991 9.7 10.3878 9.2 10.1568 8.8L6.51952 2.5Z" fill="currentColor"></path></svg>28<!-- -->%</span></p><p class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-secondary leading-5 mt-1">On May 29, Federal Reserve officials indicated that while there was no immediate urgency to adjust rates, they remained prepared to raise interest rates if inflation continued to rise due to geopolitical tensions, particularly the conflict in the Middle East. This hawkish tone contributed to market uncertainty about future rate hikes.</p><div class="flex items-center gap-1.5 mt-3"><a href="https://www.reuters.com/business/fed-officials-mull-raising-rates-curb-growing-inflation-risk-2026-05-29/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" class="flex items-center justify-center rounded-md overflow-hidden bg-white" style="width:28px;height:28px;border:1px solid var(--color-pk-border)" data-state="closed" data-slot="tooltip-trigger"><img src="https://www.google.com/s2/favicons?domain=www.reuters.com&amp;sz=64" alt="Reuters" referrerPolicy="no-referrer" width="18" height="18" loading="lazy" style="object-fit:contain"/></a></div></div></div><div class="flex gap-3 relative !h-0 !overflow-hidden !p-0 !m-0" style="content-visibility:hidden" inert="" aria-hidden="true"><div class="flex flex-col items-center shrink-0"><div class="w-px h-[7px] bg-pk-border"></div><div class="w-3 h-3 rounded-full border-2 border-pk-gray-300 bg-pk-surface shrink-0"></div><div class="w-px flex-1 bg-pk-border"></div></div><div class="flex-1 pb-8"><span class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary">May 29 2026</span><p class="text-body-base font-semibold text-pk-content-primary leading-5 mt-1">Fed officials signal readiness to raise rates if inflation persists amid Middle East conflict</p><p class="flex items-center gap-1 text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary mt-0.5"><span>25 bps increase<!-- --> <!-- -->jumps to<!-- --> <!-- -->38<!-- -->%</span><span class="inline-flex items-center gap-0.5 font-semibold text-pk-content-accent-green"><svg width="8" height="8" viewBox="0 0 12 12" fill="none" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><path d="M6.51952 2.5C6.28858 2.1 5.71123 2.1 5.48029 2.5L1.84298 8.8C1.61204 9.2 1.90072 9.7 2.3626 9.7L9.63721 9.7C10.0991 9.7 10.3878 9.2 10.1568 8.8L6.51952 2.5Z" fill="currentColor"></path></svg>12<!-- -->%</span></p><p class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-secondary leading-5 mt-1">On May 29, 2026, Federal Reserve officials indicated they might raise interest rates if inflation remains elevated due to supply shocks from the Middle East conflict, increasing market anticipation of future tightening.</p><div class="flex items-center gap-1.5 mt-3"><a href="https://www.reuters.com/business/fed-officials-mull-raising-rates-curb-growing-inflation-risk-2026-05-29/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" class="flex items-center justify-center rounded-md overflow-hidden bg-white" style="width:28px;height:28px;border:1px solid var(--color-pk-border)" data-state="closed" data-slot="tooltip-trigger"><img src="https://www.google.com/s2/favicons?domain=www.reuters.com&amp;sz=64" alt="Reuters" referrerPolicy="no-referrer" width="18" height="18" loading="lazy" style="object-fit:contain"/></a></div></div></div><div class="flex gap-3 relative !h-0 !overflow-hidden !p-0 !m-0" style="content-visibility:hidden" inert="" aria-hidden="true"><div class="flex flex-col items-center shrink-0"><div class="w-px h-[7px] bg-pk-border"></div><div class="w-3 h-3 rounded-full border-2 border-pk-gray-300 bg-pk-surface shrink-0"></div><div class="w-px flex-1 bg-pk-border"></div></div><div class="flex-1 pb-8"><span class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary">May 29 2026</span><p class="text-body-base font-semibold text-pk-content-primary leading-5 mt-1">Fed officials signal possible future rate hikes amid inflation risks</p><p class="flex items-center gap-1 text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary mt-0.5"><span>No change<!-- --> <!-- -->surges to<!-- --> <!-- -->81<!-- -->%</span><span class="inline-flex items-center gap-0.5 font-semibold text-pk-content-accent-green"><svg width="8" height="8" viewBox="0 0 12 12" fill="none" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><path d="M6.51952 2.5C6.28858 2.1 5.71123 2.1 5.48029 2.5L1.84298 8.8C1.61204 9.2 1.90072 9.7 2.3626 9.7L9.63721 9.7C10.0991 9.7 10.3878 9.2 10.1568 8.8L6.51952 2.5Z" fill="currentColor"></path></svg>28<!-- -->%</span></p><p class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-secondary leading-5 mt-1">On May 29, 2026, Federal Reserve officials indicated readiness to raise interest rates if inflation remains elevated, particularly due to war-driven energy price pressures. This hawkish tone increased market expectations for future tightening despite no immediate rate change, supporting the &#x27;No change&#x27; and &#x27;25 bps increase&#x27; outcomes.</p><div class="flex items-center gap-1.5 mt-3"><a href="https://www.reuters.com/business/fed-officials-mull-raising-rates-curb-growing-inflation-risk-2026-05-29/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" class="flex items-center justify-center rounded-md overflow-hidden bg-white" style="width:28px;height:28px;border:1px solid var(--color-pk-border)" data-state="closed" data-slot="tooltip-trigger"><img src="https://www.google.com/s2/favicons?domain=www.reuters.com&amp;sz=64" alt="Reuters" referrerPolicy="no-referrer" width="18" height="18" loading="lazy" style="object-fit:contain"/></a></div></div></div><div class="flex gap-3 relative !h-0 !overflow-hidden !p-0 !m-0" style="content-visibility:hidden" inert="" aria-hidden="true"><div class="flex flex-col items-center shrink-0"><div class="w-px h-[7px] bg-pk-border"></div><div class="w-3 h-3 rounded-full border-2 border-pk-gray-300 bg-pk-surface shrink-0"></div><div class="w-px flex-1 bg-pk-border"></div></div><div class="flex-1 pb-8"><span class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary">May 29 2026</span><p class="text-body-base font-semibold text-pk-content-primary leading-5 mt-1">Fed officials signal possible rate hike if inflation persists amid Middle East conflict</p><p class="flex items-center gap-1 text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary mt-0.5"><span>No change<!-- --> <!-- -->drops to<!-- --> <!-- -->44<!-- -->%</span><span class="inline-flex items-center gap-0.5 font-semibold text-pk-content-accent-red"><svg width="8" height="8" viewBox="0 0 12 12" fill="none" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><path d="M6.51952 9.5C6.28858 9.9 5.71123 9.9 5.48029 9.5L1.84298 3.2C1.61204 2.8 1.90072 2.3 2.3626 2.3L9.63721 2.3C10.0991 2.3 10.3878 2.8 10.1568 3.2L6.51952 9.5Z" fill="currentColor"></path></svg>12<!-- -->%</span></p><p class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-secondary leading-5 mt-1">Federal Reserve officials indicated readiness to raise interest rates if inflation remains elevated due to the ongoing Middle East conflict, highlighting inflation risks but no immediate urgency to adjust rates. This contributed to market uncertainty about future hikes versus holds.</p><div class="flex items-center gap-1.5 mt-3"><a href="https://www.reuters.com/business/fed-officials-mull-raising-rates-curb-growing-inflation-risk-2026-05-29/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" class="flex items-center justify-center rounded-md overflow-hidden bg-white" style="width:28px;height:28px;border:1px solid var(--color-pk-border)" data-state="closed" data-slot="tooltip-trigger"><img src="https://www.google.com/s2/favicons?domain=www.reuters.com&amp;sz=64" alt="Reuters" referrerPolicy="no-referrer" width="18" height="18" loading="lazy" style="object-fit:contain"/></a></div></div></div><div class="flex gap-3 relative !h-0 !overflow-hidden !p-0 !m-0" style="content-visibility:hidden" inert="" aria-hidden="true"><div class="flex flex-col items-center shrink-0"><div class="w-px h-[7px] bg-pk-border"></div><div class="w-3 h-3 rounded-full border-2 border-pk-gray-300 bg-pk-surface shrink-0"></div><div class="w-px flex-1 bg-pk-border"></div></div><div class="flex-1 pb-8"><span class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary">May 29 2026</span><p class="text-body-base font-semibold text-pk-content-primary leading-5 mt-1">Federal Reserve officials signal possible future rate hikes amid inflation risks</p><p class="flex items-center gap-1 text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary mt-0.5"><span>25 bps increase<!-- --> <!-- -->drops to<!-- --> <!-- -->12<!-- -->%</span><span class="inline-flex items-center gap-0.5 font-semibold text-pk-content-accent-red"><svg width="8" height="8" viewBox="0 0 12 12" fill="none" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><path d="M6.51952 9.5C6.28858 9.9 5.71123 9.9 5.48029 9.5L1.84298 3.2C1.61204 2.8 1.90072 2.3 2.3626 2.3L9.63721 2.3C10.0991 2.3 10.3878 2.8 10.1568 3.2L6.51952 9.5Z" fill="currentColor"></path></svg>14<!-- -->%</span></p><p class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-secondary leading-5 mt-1">On May 29, Federal Reserve officials indicated readiness to raise interest rates if inflation pressures persist, especially due to geopolitical risks such as the Middle East conflict. This hawkish tone contributed to market expectations shifting away from cuts toward potential hikes later in 2026.</p><div class="flex items-center gap-1.5 mt-3"><a href="https://www.reuters.com/business/fed-officials-mull-raising-rates-curb-growing-inflation-risk-2026-05-29/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" class="flex items-center justify-center rounded-md overflow-hidden bg-white" style="width:28px;height:28px;border:1px solid var(--color-pk-border)" data-state="closed" data-slot="tooltip-trigger"><img src="https://www.google.com/s2/favicons?domain=www.reuters.com&amp;sz=64" alt="Reuters" referrerPolicy="no-referrer" width="18" height="18" loading="lazy" style="object-fit:contain"/></a></div></div></div><div class="flex gap-3 relative !h-0 !overflow-hidden !p-0 !m-0" style="content-visibility:hidden" inert="" aria-hidden="true"><div class="flex flex-col items-center shrink-0"><div class="w-px h-[7px] bg-pk-border"></div><div class="w-3 h-3 rounded-full border-2 border-pk-gray-300 bg-pk-surface shrink-0"></div><div class="w-px flex-1 bg-pk-border"></div></div><div class="flex-1 pb-8"><span class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary">May 29 2026</span><p class="text-body-base font-semibold text-pk-content-primary leading-5 mt-1">Fed officials signal possible future rate hikes amid inflation concerns</p><p class="flex items-center gap-1 text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary mt-0.5"><span>25 bps increase<!-- --> <!-- -->jumps to<!-- --> <!-- -->38<!-- -->%</span><span class="inline-flex items-center gap-0.5 font-semibold text-pk-content-accent-green"><svg width="8" height="8" viewBox="0 0 12 12" fill="none" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><path d="M6.51952 2.5C6.28858 2.1 5.71123 2.1 5.48029 2.5L1.84298 8.8C1.61204 9.2 1.90072 9.7 2.3626 9.7L9.63721 9.7C10.0991 9.7 10.3878 9.2 10.1568 8.8L6.51952 2.5Z" fill="currentColor"></path></svg>12<!-- -->%</span></p><p class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-secondary leading-5 mt-1">Federal Reserve officials indicated readiness to raise interest rates if inflation persists, reflecting concerns over the impact of Middle East conflict on energy prices and inflation. This hawkish tone increased market expectations for rate hikes later in 2026.</p><div class="flex items-center gap-1.5 mt-3"><a href="https://www.reuters.com/business/fed-officials-mull-raising-rates-curb-growing-inflation-risk-2026-05-29/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" class="flex items-center justify-center rounded-md overflow-hidden bg-white" style="width:28px;height:28px;border:1px solid var(--color-pk-border)" data-state="closed" data-slot="tooltip-trigger"><img src="https://www.google.com/s2/favicons?domain=www.reuters.com&amp;sz=64" alt="Reuters" referrerPolicy="no-referrer" width="18" height="18" loading="lazy" style="object-fit:contain"/></a></div></div></div><div class="flex gap-3 relative !h-0 !overflow-hidden !p-0 !m-0" style="content-visibility:hidden" inert="" aria-hidden="true"><div class="flex flex-col items-center shrink-0"><div class="w-px h-[7px] bg-pk-border"></div><div class="w-3 h-3 rounded-full border-2 border-pk-gray-300 bg-pk-surface shrink-0"></div><div class="w-px flex-1 bg-pk-border"></div></div><div class="flex-1 pb-8"><span class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary">May 29 2026</span><p class="text-body-base font-semibold text-pk-content-primary leading-5 mt-1">Fed officials signal possible rate hikes amid inflation risks from Middle East conflict</p><p class="flex items-center gap-1 text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary mt-0.5"><span>25 bps increase<!-- --> <!-- -->surges to<!-- --> <!-- -->39<!-- -->%</span><span class="inline-flex items-center gap-0.5 font-semibold text-pk-content-accent-green"><svg width="8" height="8" viewBox="0 0 12 12" fill="none" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><path d="M6.51952 2.5C6.28858 2.1 5.71123 2.1 5.48029 2.5L1.84298 8.8C1.61204 9.2 1.90072 9.7 2.3626 9.7L9.63721 9.7C10.0991 9.7 10.3878 9.2 10.1568 8.8L6.51952 2.5Z" fill="currentColor"></path></svg>23<!-- -->%</span></p><p class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-secondary leading-5 mt-1">Federal Reserve officials indicated readiness to raise interest rates if inflation risks persist due to the Middle East conflict. While some officials saw no urgency to adjust rates immediately, hawkish dissenters highlighted inflation concerns, increasing market expectations for a rate hike later in 2026.</p><div class="flex items-center gap-1.5 mt-3"><a href="https://www.reuters.com/business/fed-officials-mull-raising-rates-curb-growing-inflation-risk-2026-05-29/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" class="flex items-center justify-center rounded-md overflow-hidden bg-white" style="width:28px;height:28px;border:1px solid var(--color-pk-border)" data-state="closed" data-slot="tooltip-trigger"><img src="https://www.google.com/s2/favicons?domain=www.reuters.com&amp;sz=64" alt="Reuters" referrerPolicy="no-referrer" width="18" height="18" loading="lazy" style="object-fit:contain"/></a></div></div></div><div class="flex gap-3 relative !h-0 !overflow-hidden !p-0 !m-0" style="content-visibility:hidden" inert="" aria-hidden="true"><div class="flex flex-col items-center shrink-0"><div class="w-px h-[7px] bg-pk-border"></div><div class="w-3 h-3 rounded-full border-2 border-pk-gray-300 bg-pk-surface shrink-0"></div><div class="w-px flex-1 bg-pk-border"></div></div><div class="flex-1 pb-8"><span class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary">May 27 2026</span><p class="text-body-base font-semibold text-pk-content-primary leading-5 mt-1">Fed Governor Cook Highlights AI and Economic Outlook at Stanford</p><p class="flex items-center gap-1 text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary mt-0.5"><span>No change<!-- --> <!-- -->surges to<!-- --> <!-- -->74<!-- -->%</span><span class="inline-flex items-center gap-0.5 font-semibold text-pk-content-accent-green"><svg width="8" height="8" viewBox="0 0 12 12" fill="none" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><path d="M6.51952 2.5C6.28858 2.1 5.71123 2.1 5.48029 2.5L1.84298 8.8C1.61204 9.2 1.90072 9.7 2.3626 9.7L9.63721 9.7C10.0991 9.7 10.3878 9.2 10.1568 8.8L6.51952 2.5Z" fill="currentColor"></path></svg>21<!-- -->%</span></p><p class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-secondary leading-5 mt-1">Governor Lisa D. Cook&#x27;s speech emphasized resilient economic output and inflation expectations, reinforcing the Fed&#x27;s cautious stance on rate changes. This helped maintain market confidence in a steady policy, supporting the &#x27;No change&#x27; outcome.</p><div class="flex items-center gap-1.5 mt-3"><a href="https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/cook20260715a.htm" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" class="flex items-center justify-center rounded-md overflow-hidden bg-white" style="width:28px;height:28px;border:1px solid var(--color-pk-border)" data-state="closed" data-slot="tooltip-trigger"><img src="https://www.google.com/s2/favicons?domain=www.federalreserve.gov&amp;sz=64" alt="Federal Reserve Board" referrerPolicy="no-referrer" width="18" height="18" loading="lazy" style="object-fit:contain"/></a></div></div></div><div class="flex gap-3 relative !h-0 !overflow-hidden !p-0 !m-0" style="content-visibility:hidden" inert="" aria-hidden="true"><div class="flex flex-col items-center shrink-0"><div class="w-px h-[7px] bg-pk-border"></div><div class="w-3 h-3 rounded-full border-2 border-pk-gray-300 bg-pk-surface shrink-0"></div><div class="w-px flex-1 bg-pk-border"></div></div><div class="flex-1 pb-8"><span class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary">May 22 2026</span><p class="text-body-base font-semibold text-pk-content-primary leading-5 mt-1">Speech by Governor Waller highlights inflation concerns and market expectations</p><p class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-secondary leading-5 mt-1">Governor Waller expressed concerns about rising inflation expectations, signaling vigilance on inflation risks which contributed to market anticipation of a possible rate increase.</p><div class="flex items-center gap-1.5 mt-3"><a href="https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/waller20260522a.htm" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" class="flex items-center justify-center rounded-md overflow-hidden bg-white" style="width:28px;height:28px;border:1px solid var(--color-pk-border)" data-state="closed" data-slot="tooltip-trigger"><img src="https://www.google.com/s2/favicons?domain=www.federalreserve.gov&amp;sz=64" alt="Federal Reserve Board" referrerPolicy="no-referrer" width="18" height="18" loading="lazy" style="object-fit:contain"/></a></div></div></div><div class="flex gap-3 relative !h-0 !overflow-hidden !p-0 !m-0" style="content-visibility:hidden" inert="" aria-hidden="true"><div class="flex flex-col items-center shrink-0"><div class="w-px h-[7px] bg-pk-border"></div><div class="w-3 h-3 rounded-full border-2 border-pk-gray-300 bg-pk-surface shrink-0"></div><div class="w-px flex-1 bg-pk-border"></div></div><div class="flex-1 pb-8"><span class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary">May 22 2026</span><p class="text-body-base font-semibold text-pk-content-primary leading-5 mt-1">Kevin Warsh Sworn in as Federal Reserve Chair, Signals Cautious Monetary Policy</p><p class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-secondary leading-5 mt-1">Kevin Warsh took office as the new Federal Reserve Chair in May 2026, marking a leadership transition. His approach emphasized data-driven decisions without forward guidance, contributing to market uncertainty but reinforcing expectations of steady rates in the near term.</p><div class="flex items-center gap-1.5 mt-3"><a href="https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/other20260522a.htm" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" class="flex items-center justify-center rounded-md overflow-hidden bg-white" style="width:28px;height:28px;border:1px solid var(--color-pk-border)" data-state="closed" data-slot="tooltip-trigger"><img src="https://www.google.com/s2/favicons?domain=www.federalreserve.gov&amp;sz=64" alt="Federal Reserve Board" referrerPolicy="no-referrer" width="18" height="18" loading="lazy" style="object-fit:contain"/></a></div></div></div><div class="flex gap-3 relative !h-0 !overflow-hidden !p-0 !m-0" style="content-visibility:hidden" inert="" aria-hidden="true"><div class="flex flex-col items-center shrink-0"><div class="w-px h-[7px] bg-pk-border"></div><div class="w-3 h-3 rounded-full border-2 border-pk-gray-300 bg-pk-surface shrink-0"></div><div class="w-px flex-1 bg-pk-border"></div></div><div class="flex-1 pb-8"><span class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary">May 22 2026</span><p class="text-body-base font-semibold text-pk-content-primary leading-5 mt-1">Kevin Warsh appointed new Federal Reserve Chair, signals data-driven policy</p><p class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-secondary leading-5 mt-1">Kevin Warsh took over as Fed Chair and emphasized reacting to economic data rather than providing forward guidance, increasing uncertainty about future rate moves. This contributed to market indecision but generally supported the &#x27;No change&#x27; and &#x27;25 bps increase&#x27; outcomes as most probable.</p><div class="flex items-center gap-1.5 mt-3"><a href="https://www.aol.de/articles/federal-raise-lower-interest-rates-102000196.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" class="flex items-center justify-center rounded-md overflow-hidden bg-white" style="width:28px;height:28px;border:1px solid var(--color-pk-border)" data-state="closed" data-slot="tooltip-trigger"><img src="https://www.google.com/s2/favicons?domain=www.aol.de&amp;sz=64" alt="AOL" referrerPolicy="no-referrer" width="18" height="18" loading="lazy" style="object-fit:contain"/></a></div></div></div><div class="flex gap-3 relative !h-0 !overflow-hidden !p-0 !m-0" style="content-visibility:hidden" inert="" aria-hidden="true"><div class="flex flex-col items-center shrink-0"><div class="w-px h-[7px] bg-pk-border"></div><div class="w-3 h-3 rounded-full border-2 border-pk-gray-300 bg-pk-surface shrink-0"></div><div class="w-px flex-1 bg-pk-border"></div></div><div class="flex-1 pb-8"><span class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary">May 22 2026</span><p class="text-body-base font-semibold text-pk-content-primary leading-5 mt-1">Kevin Warsh sworn in as Federal Reserve Chair, signaling potential policy shift</p><p class="flex items-center gap-1 text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary mt-0.5"><span>25 bps increase<!-- --> <!-- -->drops to<!-- --> <!-- -->16<!-- -->%</span><span class="inline-flex items-center gap-0.5 font-semibold text-pk-content-accent-red"><svg width="8" height="8" viewBox="0 0 12 12" fill="none" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><path d="M6.51952 9.5C6.28858 9.9 5.71123 9.9 5.48029 9.5L1.84298 3.2C1.61204 2.8 1.90072 2.3 2.3626 2.3L9.63721 2.3C10.0991 2.3 10.3878 2.8 10.1568 3.2L6.51952 9.5Z" fill="currentColor"></path></svg>10<!-- -->%</span></p><p class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-secondary leading-5 mt-1">Kevin Warsh took office as Fed Chair on May 22, 2026, bringing a hawkish reputation and skepticism toward unconventional monetary policy, which influenced market expectations toward a less accommodative stance and potential rate hikes.</p><div class="flex items-center gap-1.5 mt-3"><a href="https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/other20260522a.htm" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" class="flex items-center justify-center rounded-md overflow-hidden bg-white" style="width:28px;height:28px;border:1px solid var(--color-pk-border)" data-state="closed" data-slot="tooltip-trigger"><img src="https://www.google.com/s2/favicons?domain=www.federalreserve.gov&amp;sz=64" alt="Federal Reserve Board" referrerPolicy="no-referrer" width="18" height="18" loading="lazy" style="object-fit:contain"/></a></div></div></div><div class="flex gap-3 relative !h-0 !overflow-hidden !p-0 !m-0" style="content-visibility:hidden" inert="" aria-hidden="true"><div class="flex flex-col items-center shrink-0"><div class="w-px h-[7px] bg-pk-border"></div><div class="w-3 h-3 rounded-full border-2 border-pk-gray-300 bg-pk-surface shrink-0"></div><div class="w-px flex-1 bg-pk-border"></div></div><div class="flex-1 pb-8"><span class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary">May 22 2026</span><p class="text-body-base font-semibold text-pk-content-primary leading-5 mt-1">Kevin Warsh confirmed as new Federal Reserve Chairman</p><p class="flex items-center gap-1 text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary mt-0.5"><span>25 bps increase<!-- --> <!-- -->drops to<!-- --> <!-- -->17<!-- -->%</span><span class="inline-flex items-center gap-0.5 font-semibold text-pk-content-accent-red"><svg width="8" height="8" viewBox="0 0 12 12" fill="none" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><path d="M6.51952 9.5C6.28858 9.9 5.71123 9.9 5.48029 9.5L1.84298 3.2C1.61204 2.8 1.90072 2.3 2.3626 2.3L9.63721 2.3C10.0991 2.3 10.3878 2.8 10.1568 3.2L6.51952 9.5Z" fill="currentColor"></path></svg>9<!-- -->%</span></p><p class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-secondary leading-5 mt-1">The Senate confirmed Kevin Warsh as the new Fed Chair on May 13, and his leadership was expected to mark a shift in monetary policy. This appointment influenced market expectations, as Warsh was seen as more hawkish compared to his predecessor, contributing to early price movements favoring a rate increase.</p><div class="flex items-center gap-1.5 mt-3"><a href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/simonmoore/2026/06/08/fed-may-remove-easing-language-at-june-meeting-setting-up-a-potential-2026-hike/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" class="flex items-center justify-center rounded-md overflow-hidden bg-white" style="width:28px;height:28px;border:1px solid var(--color-pk-border)" data-state="closed" data-slot="tooltip-trigger"><img src="https://www.google.com/s2/favicons?domain=www.forbes.com&amp;sz=64" alt="Forbes" referrerPolicy="no-referrer" width="18" height="18" loading="lazy" style="object-fit:contain"/></a></div></div></div><div class="flex gap-3 relative !h-0 !overflow-hidden !p-0 !m-0" style="content-visibility:hidden" inert="" aria-hidden="true"><div class="flex flex-col items-center shrink-0"><div class="w-px h-[7px] bg-pk-border"></div><div class="w-3 h-3 rounded-full border-2 border-pk-gray-300 bg-pk-surface shrink-0"></div><div class="w-px flex-1 bg-pk-border"></div></div><div class="flex-1 pb-8"><span class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary">May 22 2026</span><p class="text-body-base font-semibold text-pk-content-primary leading-5 mt-1">Kevin Warsh succeeds Jerome Powell as Federal Reserve Chairman</p><p class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-secondary leading-5 mt-1">Kevin Warsh took over as Fed Chair, emphasizing data-driven decisions without forward guidance, which increased uncertainty about future rate moves. This leadership change contributed to market volatility and influenced expectations around the September meeting.</p><div class="flex items-center gap-1.5 mt-3"><a href="https://www.aol.de/articles/federal-raise-lower-interest-rates-102000196.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" class="flex items-center justify-center rounded-md overflow-hidden bg-white" style="width:28px;height:28px;border:1px solid var(--color-pk-border)" data-state="closed" data-slot="tooltip-trigger"><img src="https://www.google.com/s2/favicons?domain=www.aol.de&amp;sz=64" alt="AOL" referrerPolicy="no-referrer" width="18" height="18" loading="lazy" style="object-fit:contain"/></a></div></div></div><div class="flex gap-3 relative !h-0 !overflow-hidden !p-0 !m-0" style="content-visibility:hidden" inert="" aria-hidden="true"><div class="flex flex-col items-center shrink-0"><div class="w-px h-[7px] bg-pk-border"></div><div class="w-3 h-3 rounded-full border-2 border-pk-gray-300 bg-pk-surface shrink-0"></div><div class="w-px flex-1 bg-pk-border"></div></div><div class="flex-1 pb-8"><span class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary">May 22 2026</span><p class="text-body-base font-semibold text-pk-content-primary leading-5 mt-1">New Fed Chair Kevin Warsh signals data-driven approach, no immediate rate cuts</p><p class="flex items-center gap-1 text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary mt-0.5"><span>25 bps increase<!-- --> <!-- -->drops to<!-- --> <!-- -->17<!-- -->%</span><span class="inline-flex items-center gap-0.5 font-semibold text-pk-content-accent-red"><svg width="8" height="8" viewBox="0 0 12 12" fill="none" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><path d="M6.51952 9.5C6.28858 9.9 5.71123 9.9 5.48029 9.5L1.84298 3.2C1.61204 2.8 1.90072 2.3 2.3626 2.3L9.63721 2.3C10.0991 2.3 10.3878 2.8 10.1568 3.2L6.51952 9.5Z" fill="currentColor"></path></svg>9<!-- -->%</span></p><p class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-secondary leading-5 mt-1">Following his appointment in May 2026, Fed Chair Kevin Warsh emphasized a data-dependent monetary policy approach, avoiding forward guidance and indicating that rate cuts are unlikely soon given persistent inflation. This stance contributed to a decline in market expectations for rate decreases and a gradual increase in the probability of a 25 bps rate hike by September.</p><div class="flex items-center gap-1.5 mt-3"><a href="https://finance.yahoo.com/personal-finance/banking/article/fed-rate-predictions-2026-154647304.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" class="flex items-center justify-center rounded-md overflow-hidden bg-white" style="width:28px;height:28px;border:1px solid var(--color-pk-border)" data-state="closed" data-slot="tooltip-trigger"><img src="https://www.google.com/s2/favicons?domain=finance.yahoo.com&amp;sz=64" alt="Yahoo Finance" referrerPolicy="no-referrer" width="18" height="18" loading="lazy" style="object-fit:contain"/></a></div></div></div><div class="flex gap-3 relative !h-0 !overflow-hidden !p-0 !m-0" style="content-visibility:hidden" inert="" aria-hidden="true"><div class="flex flex-col items-center shrink-0"><div class="w-px h-[7px] bg-pk-border"></div><div class="w-3 h-3 rounded-full border-2 border-pk-gray-300 bg-pk-surface shrink-0"></div><div class="w-px flex-1 bg-pk-border"></div></div><div class="flex-1 pb-8"><span class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary">May 22 2026</span><p class="text-body-base font-semibold text-pk-content-primary leading-5 mt-1">Fed Governor Waller Discusses Economic Outlook Amid Inflation and Tariff Effects</p><p class="flex items-center gap-1 text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary mt-0.5"><span>No change<!-- --> <!-- -->surges to<!-- --> <!-- -->74<!-- -->%</span><span class="inline-flex items-center gap-0.5 font-semibold text-pk-content-accent-green"><svg width="8" height="8" viewBox="0 0 12 12" fill="none" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><path d="M6.51952 2.5C6.28858 2.1 5.71123 2.1 5.48029 2.5L1.84298 8.8C1.61204 9.2 1.90072 9.7 2.3626 9.7L9.63721 9.7C10.0991 9.7 10.3878 9.2 10.1568 8.8L6.51952 2.5Z" fill="currentColor"></path></svg>21<!-- -->%</span></p><p class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-secondary leading-5 mt-1">Governor Christopher J. Waller&#x27;s speech highlighted the modest effects of import tariffs on inflation and the ongoing elevated inflation pressures, signaling cautious Fed policy. This contributed to early market positioning for no rate cuts and potential future hikes, supporting the &#x27;No change&#x27; outcome.</p><div class="flex items-center gap-1.5 mt-3"><a href="https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/waller20260713a.htm" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" class="flex items-center justify-center rounded-md overflow-hidden bg-white" style="width:28px;height:28px;border:1px solid var(--color-pk-border)" data-state="closed" data-slot="tooltip-trigger"><img src="https://www.google.com/s2/favicons?domain=www.federalreserve.gov&amp;sz=64" alt="Federal Reserve Board" referrerPolicy="no-referrer" width="18" height="18" loading="lazy" style="object-fit:contain"/></a></div></div></div><div class="flex gap-3 relative !h-0 !overflow-hidden !p-0 !m-0" style="content-visibility:hidden" inert="" aria-hidden="true"><div class="flex flex-col items-center shrink-0"><div class="w-px h-[7px] bg-pk-border"></div><div class="w-3 h-3 rounded-full border-2 border-pk-gray-300 bg-pk-surface shrink-0"></div><div class="w-px flex-1 bg-pk-border"></div></div><div class="flex-1 pb-8"><span class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary">May 22 2026</span><p class="text-body-base font-semibold text-pk-content-primary leading-5 mt-1">Kevin Warsh appointed as new Federal Reserve Chairman</p><p class="flex items-center gap-1 text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary mt-0.5"><span>No change<!-- --> <!-- -->dips to<!-- --> <!-- -->74<!-- -->%</span><span class="inline-flex items-center gap-0.5 font-semibold text-pk-content-accent-red"><svg width="8" height="8" viewBox="0 0 12 12" fill="none" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><path d="M6.51952 9.5C6.28858 9.9 5.71123 9.9 5.48029 9.5L1.84298 3.2C1.61204 2.8 1.90072 2.3 2.3626 2.3L9.63721 2.3C10.0991 2.3 10.3878 2.8 10.1568 3.2L6.51952 9.5Z" fill="currentColor"></path></svg>2<!-- -->%</span></p><p class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-secondary leading-5 mt-1">Kevin Warsh succeeded Jerome Powell as Fed Chair, signaling a shift towards data-driven policy without forward guidance. This increased market uncertainty about future rate moves, contributing to fluctuating expectations but overall supporting a cautious approach with no immediate rate changes.</p><div class="flex items-center gap-1.5 mt-3"><a href="https://www.aol.de/articles/federal-raise-lower-interest-rates-102000196.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" class="flex items-center justify-center rounded-md overflow-hidden bg-white" style="width:28px;height:28px;border:1px solid var(--color-pk-border)" data-state="closed" data-slot="tooltip-trigger"><img src="https://www.google.com/s2/favicons?domain=www.aol.de&amp;sz=64" alt="AOL" referrerPolicy="no-referrer" width="18" height="18" loading="lazy" style="object-fit:contain"/></a></div></div></div><div class="flex gap-3 relative !h-0 !overflow-hidden !p-0 !m-0" style="content-visibility:hidden" inert="" aria-hidden="true"><div class="flex flex-col items-center shrink-0"><div class="w-px h-[7px] bg-pk-border"></div><div class="w-3 h-3 rounded-full border-2 border-pk-gray-300 bg-pk-surface shrink-0"></div><div class="w-px flex-1 bg-pk-border"></div></div><div class="flex-1 pb-8"><span class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary">May 22 2026</span><p class="text-body-base font-semibold text-pk-content-primary leading-5 mt-1">Kevin Warsh sworn in as new Federal Reserve Chair at White House</p><p class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-secondary leading-5 mt-1">Kevin Warsh was officially sworn in as the 17th Chair of the Federal Reserve, marking a leadership transition from Jerome Powell. His appointment introduced market uncertainty about future rate policy, as Warsh emphasized independence and reform but faced political pressures.</p><div class="flex items-center gap-1.5 mt-3"><a href="https://www.cbsnews.com/news/kevin-warsh-sworn-in-federal-reserve-chair/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" class="flex items-center justify-center rounded-md overflow-hidden bg-white" style="width:28px;height:28px;border:1px solid var(--color-pk-border)" data-state="closed" data-slot="tooltip-trigger"><img src="https://www.google.com/s2/favicons?domain=www.cbsnews.com&amp;sz=64" alt="CBS News" referrerPolicy="no-referrer" width="18" height="18" loading="lazy" style="object-fit:contain"/></a><a href="https://www.aljazeera.com/economy/2026/5/22/kevin-warsh-sworn-in-as-new-us-fed-chair" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" class="flex items-center justify-center rounded-md overflow-hidden bg-white" style="width:28px;height:28px;border:1px solid var(--color-pk-border)" data-state="closed" data-slot="tooltip-trigger"><img src="https://www.google.com/s2/favicons?domain=www.aljazeera.com&amp;sz=64" alt="Al Jazeera" referrerPolicy="no-referrer" width="18" height="18" loading="lazy" style="object-fit:contain"/></a></div></div></div><div class="flex gap-3 relative !h-0 !overflow-hidden !p-0 !m-0" style="content-visibility:hidden" inert="" aria-hidden="true"><div class="flex flex-col items-center shrink-0"><div class="w-px h-[7px] bg-pk-border"></div><div class="w-3 h-3 rounded-full border-2 border-pk-gray-300 bg-pk-surface shrink-0"></div><div class="w-px flex-1 bg-pk-border"></div></div><div class="flex-1 pb-8"><span class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary">May 20 2026</span><p class="text-body-base font-semibold text-pk-content-primary leading-5 mt-1">Fed Officials See Rate Hike Ahead if Inflation Remains Elevated</p><p class="flex items-center gap-1 text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary mt-0.5"><span>25 bps increase<!-- --> <!-- -->jumps to<!-- --> <!-- -->38<!-- -->%</span><span class="inline-flex items-center gap-0.5 font-semibold text-pk-content-accent-green"><svg width="8" height="8" viewBox="0 0 12 12" fill="none" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><path d="M6.51952 2.5C6.28858 2.1 5.71123 2.1 5.48029 2.5L1.84298 8.8C1.61204 9.2 1.90072 9.7 2.3626 9.7L9.63721 9.7C10.0991 9.7 10.3878 9.2 10.1568 8.8L6.51952 2.5Z" fill="currentColor"></path></svg>12<!-- -->%</span></p><p class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-secondary leading-5 mt-1">Minutes from the May 2026 meeting revealed that many Fed officials anticipated the need for interest rate increases if inflationary pressures, exacerbated by geopolitical tensions, persisted. This hawkish sentiment contributed to market pricing in a higher likelihood of rate hikes later in 2026, influencing the market&#x27;s evolving expectations.</p><div class="flex items-center gap-1.5 mt-3"><a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2026/05/20/fed-officials-see-rate-hike-ahead-if-inflation-stays-elevated-minutes-show.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" class="flex items-center justify-center rounded-md overflow-hidden bg-white" style="width:28px;height:28px;border:1px solid var(--color-pk-border)" data-state="closed" data-slot="tooltip-trigger"><img src="https://www.google.com/s2/favicons?domain=www.cnbc.com&amp;sz=64" alt="CNBC" referrerPolicy="no-referrer" width="18" height="18" loading="lazy" style="object-fit:contain"/></a></div></div></div><div class="flex gap-3 relative !h-0 !overflow-hidden !p-0 !m-0" style="content-visibility:hidden" inert="" aria-hidden="true"><div class="flex flex-col items-center shrink-0"><div class="w-px h-[7px] bg-pk-border"></div><div class="w-3 h-3 rounded-full border-2 border-pk-gray-300 bg-pk-surface shrink-0"></div><div class="w-px flex-1 bg-pk-border"></div></div><div class="flex-1 pb-8"><span class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary">May 20 2026</span><p class="text-body-base font-semibold text-pk-content-primary leading-5 mt-1">Fed Minutes Reveal Split Views on Inflation and Rate Cuts Amid Middle East Conflict</p><p class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-secondary leading-5 mt-1">Minutes from the May 2026 FOMC meeting showed a divided committee with some participants advocating for rate cuts if inflation pressures eased and the Middle East conflict resolved, while others expressed concern about embedded inflation risks due to elevated energy prices and tariffs. This uncertainty contributed to market volatility and shifting rate hike probabilities.</p><div class="flex items-center gap-1.5 mt-3"><a href="https://www.cryptocraft.com/news/1399278-minutes-of-the-federal-open-market-committee" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" class="flex items-center justify-center rounded-md overflow-hidden bg-white" style="width:28px;height:28px;border:1px solid var(--color-pk-border)" data-state="closed" data-slot="tooltip-trigger"><img src="https://www.google.com/s2/favicons?domain=www.cryptocraft.com&amp;sz=64" alt="FinancialJuice" referrerPolicy="no-referrer" width="18" height="18" loading="lazy" style="object-fit:contain"/></a></div></div></div><div class="flex gap-3 relative !h-0 !overflow-hidden !p-0 !m-0" style="content-visibility:hidden" inert="" aria-hidden="true"><div class="flex flex-col items-center shrink-0"><div class="w-px h-[7px] bg-pk-border"></div><div class="w-3 h-3 rounded-full border-2 border-pk-gray-300 bg-pk-surface shrink-0"></div><div class="w-px flex-1 bg-pk-border"></div></div><div class="flex-1 pb-8"><span class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary">May 20 2026</span><p class="text-body-base font-semibold text-pk-content-primary leading-5 mt-1">Fed officials see rate hike ahead if inflation stays elevated, minutes show</p><p class="flex items-center gap-1 text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary mt-0.5"><span>No change<!-- --> <!-- -->surges to<!-- --> <!-- -->81<!-- -->%</span><span class="inline-flex items-center gap-0.5 font-semibold text-pk-content-accent-green"><svg width="8" height="8" viewBox="0 0 12 12" fill="none" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><path d="M6.51952 2.5C6.28858 2.1 5.71123 2.1 5.48029 2.5L1.84298 8.8C1.61204 9.2 1.90072 9.7 2.3626 9.7L9.63721 9.7C10.0991 9.7 10.3878 9.2 10.1568 8.8L6.51952 2.5Z" fill="currentColor"></path></svg>28<!-- -->%</span></p><p class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-secondary leading-5 mt-1">Minutes from the Fed&#x27;s May meeting revealed that many officials anticipated the need for interest rate increases if inflation, exacerbated by the Iran war, remained high. This signaled a shift away from earlier expectations of rate cuts and contributed to market uncertainty.</p><div class="flex items-center gap-1.5 mt-3"><a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2026/05/20/fed-officials-see-rate-hike-ahead-if-inflation-stays-elevated-minutes-show.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" class="flex items-center justify-center rounded-md overflow-hidden bg-white" style="width:28px;height:28px;border:1px solid var(--color-pk-border)" data-state="closed" data-slot="tooltip-trigger"><img src="https://www.google.com/s2/favicons?domain=www.cnbc.com&amp;sz=64" alt="CNBC" referrerPolicy="no-referrer" width="18" height="18" loading="lazy" style="object-fit:contain"/></a></div></div></div><div class="flex gap-3 relative !h-0 !overflow-hidden !p-0 !m-0" style="content-visibility:hidden" inert="" aria-hidden="true"><div class="flex flex-col items-center shrink-0"><div class="w-px h-[7px] bg-pk-border"></div><div class="w-3 h-3 rounded-full border-2 border-pk-gray-300 bg-pk-surface shrink-0"></div><div class="w-px flex-1 bg-pk-border"></div></div><div class="flex-1 pb-8"><span class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary">May 19 2026</span><p class="text-body-base font-semibold text-pk-content-primary leading-5 mt-1">Federal Reserve holds interest rates steady amid inflation concerns</p><p class="flex items-center gap-1 text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary mt-0.5"><span>No change<!-- --> <!-- -->surges to<!-- --> <!-- -->80<!-- -->%</span><span class="inline-flex items-center gap-0.5 font-semibold text-pk-content-accent-green"><svg width="8" height="8" viewBox="0 0 12 12" fill="none" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><path d="M6.51952 2.5C6.28858 2.1 5.71123 2.1 5.48029 2.5L1.84298 8.8C1.61204 9.2 1.90072 9.7 2.3626 9.7L9.63721 9.7C10.0991 9.7 10.3878 9.2 10.1568 8.8L6.51952 2.5Z" fill="currentColor"></path></svg>27<!-- -->%</span></p><p class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-secondary leading-5 mt-1">The Federal Reserve decided to keep the federal funds rate at 3.50%–3.75% during the May 2026 FOMC meeting, citing persistent inflation above the 2% target and supply shocks, particularly in energy. This decision reinforced market expectations of no immediate rate cuts and maintained a cautious outlook on future hikes.</p><div class="flex items-center gap-1.5 mt-3"><a href="https://ccabalt.com/macroeconomic-quarterly-update-may-2026/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" class="flex items-center justify-center rounded-md overflow-hidden bg-white" style="width:28px;height:28px;border:1px solid var(--color-pk-border)" data-state="closed" data-slot="tooltip-trigger"><img src="https://www.google.com/s2/favicons?domain=ccabalt.com&amp;sz=64" alt="Chesapeake Corporate Advisors" referrerPolicy="no-referrer" width="18" height="18" loading="lazy" style="object-fit:contain"/></a></div></div></div><div class="flex gap-3 relative !h-0 !overflow-hidden !p-0 !m-0" style="content-visibility:hidden" inert="" aria-hidden="true"><div class="flex flex-col items-center shrink-0"><div class="w-px h-[7px] bg-pk-border"></div><div class="w-3 h-3 rounded-full border-2 border-pk-gray-300 bg-pk-surface shrink-0"></div><div class="w-px flex-1 bg-pk-border"></div></div><div class="flex-1 pb-8"><span class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary">May 13 2026</span><p class="text-body-base font-semibold text-pk-content-primary leading-5 mt-1">Inflation rises to highest level in three years amid Iran conflict</p><p class="flex items-center gap-1 text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary mt-0.5"><span>25 bps increase<!-- --> <!-- -->drops to<!-- --> <!-- -->12<!-- -->%</span><span class="inline-flex items-center gap-0.5 font-semibold text-pk-content-accent-red"><svg width="8" height="8" viewBox="0 0 12 12" fill="none" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><path d="M6.51952 9.5C6.28858 9.9 5.71123 9.9 5.48029 9.5L1.84298 3.2C1.61204 2.8 1.90072 2.3 2.3626 2.3L9.63721 2.3C10.0991 2.3 10.3878 2.8 10.1568 3.2L6.51952 9.5Z" fill="currentColor"></path></svg>14<!-- -->%</span></p><p class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-secondary leading-5 mt-1">US inflation rose 4.2% year over year in May, the highest in three years, driven by energy price spikes and supply chain disruptions from the Iran war. This diminished hopes for rate cuts and increased the likelihood of rate hikes later in 2026.</p><div class="flex items-center gap-1.5 mt-3"><a href="https://www.aol.de/articles/federal-raise-lower-interest-rates-102000196.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" class="flex items-center justify-center rounded-md overflow-hidden bg-white" style="width:28px;height:28px;border:1px solid var(--color-pk-border)" data-state="closed" data-slot="tooltip-trigger"><img src="https://www.google.com/s2/favicons?domain=www.aol.de&amp;sz=64" alt="AOL" referrerPolicy="no-referrer" width="18" height="18" loading="lazy" style="object-fit:contain"/></a></div></div></div><div class="flex gap-3 relative !h-0 !overflow-hidden !p-0 !m-0" style="content-visibility:hidden" inert="" aria-hidden="true"><div class="flex flex-col items-center shrink-0"><div class="w-px h-[7px] bg-pk-border"></div><div class="w-3 h-3 rounded-full border-2 border-pk-gray-300 bg-pk-surface shrink-0"></div><div class="w-px flex-1 bg-pk-border"></div></div><div class="flex-1 pb-8"><span class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary">May 13 2026</span><p class="text-body-base font-semibold text-pk-content-primary leading-5 mt-1">May CPI data shows 4.2% annual inflation amid Iran war impact</p><p class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-secondary leading-5 mt-1">The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported a 0.5% monthly increase in CPI and 4.2% annual inflation in May 2026, the highest in three years, driven by higher energy prices due to the Iran war. This elevated inflation raised expectations for continued Fed vigilance on rates.</p><div class="flex items-center gap-1.5 mt-3"><a href="https://www.welchforbes.com/insights/economic-outlook-july-2026/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" class="flex items-center justify-center rounded-md overflow-hidden bg-white" style="width:28px;height:28px;border:1px solid var(--color-pk-border)" data-state="closed" data-slot="tooltip-trigger"><img src="https://www.google.com/s2/favicons?domain=www.welchforbes.com&amp;sz=64" alt="Welch &amp; Forbes" referrerPolicy="no-referrer" width="18" height="18" loading="lazy" style="object-fit:contain"/></a></div></div></div><div class="flex gap-3 relative !h-0 !overflow-hidden !p-0 !m-0" style="content-visibility:hidden" inert="" aria-hidden="true"><div class="flex flex-col items-center shrink-0"><div class="w-px h-[7px] bg-pk-border"></div><div class="w-3 h-3 rounded-full border-2 border-pk-gray-300 bg-pk-surface shrink-0"></div><div class="w-px flex-1 bg-pk-border"></div></div><div class="flex-1 pb-8"><span class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary">May 13 2026</span><p class="text-body-base font-semibold text-pk-content-primary leading-5 mt-1">Market anticipates Fed rate cut path in 2026 amid economic uncertainty</p><p class="flex items-center gap-1 text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary mt-0.5"><span>No change<!-- --> <!-- -->rises to<!-- --> <!-- -->55<!-- -->%</span><span class="inline-flex items-center gap-0.5 font-semibold text-pk-content-accent-green"><svg width="8" height="8" viewBox="0 0 12 12" fill="none" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><path d="M6.51952 2.5C6.28858 2.1 5.71123 2.1 5.48029 2.5L1.84298 8.8C1.61204 9.2 1.90072 9.7 2.3626 9.7L9.63721 9.7C10.0991 9.7 10.3878 9.2 10.1568 8.8L6.51952 2.5Z" fill="currentColor"></path></svg>2<!-- -->%</span></p><p class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-secondary leading-5 mt-1">Early in the analysis window, markets priced in a significant probability of rate cuts in 2026, reflecting uncertainty about inflation and economic growth. However, this sentiment shifted as inflation remained elevated and the Fed under new leadership signaled a more hawkish stance, reducing expectations for cuts and increasing the likelihood of hikes later in the year.</p><div class="flex items-center gap-1.5 mt-3"><a href="https://predict.info/markets/fed-chair-cut-signal-may" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" class="flex items-center justify-center rounded-md overflow-hidden bg-white" style="width:28px;height:28px;border:1px solid var(--color-pk-border)" data-state="closed" data-slot="tooltip-trigger"><img src="https://www.google.com/s2/favicons?domain=predict.info&amp;sz=64" alt="Predict.info" referrerPolicy="no-referrer" width="18" height="18" loading="lazy" style="object-fit:contain"/></a></div></div></div><div class="flex gap-3 relative !h-0 !overflow-hidden !p-0 !m-0" style="content-visibility:hidden" inert="" aria-hidden="true"><div class="flex flex-col items-center shrink-0"><div class="w-px h-[7px] bg-pk-border"></div><div class="w-3 h-3 rounded-full border-2 border-pk-gray-300 bg-pk-surface shrink-0"></div><div class="w-px flex-1 bg-pk-border"></div></div><div class="flex-1 pb-8"><span class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary">May 13 2026</span><p class="text-body-base font-semibold text-pk-content-primary leading-5 mt-1">Federal Reserve holds interest rates steady at 3.50%-3.75% amid inflation concerns</p><p class="flex items-center gap-1 text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary mt-0.5"><span>No change<!-- --> <!-- -->surges to<!-- --> <!-- -->80<!-- -->%</span><span class="inline-flex items-center gap-0.5 font-semibold text-pk-content-accent-green"><svg width="8" height="8" viewBox="0 0 12 12" fill="none" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><path d="M6.51952 2.5C6.28858 2.1 5.71123 2.1 5.48029 2.5L1.84298 8.8C1.61204 9.2 1.90072 9.7 2.3626 9.7L9.63721 9.7C10.0991 9.7 10.3878 9.2 10.1568 8.8L6.51952 2.5Z" fill="currentColor"></path></svg>27<!-- -->%</span></p><p class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-secondary leading-5 mt-1">The Federal Open Market Committee decided to maintain the target federal funds rate range at 3.50% to 3.75%, citing elevated inflation and geopolitical uncertainty, including the Iran conflict. This decision reinforced market expectations for a pause in rate changes in the near term.</p><div class="flex items-center gap-1.5 mt-3"><a href="https://www.fox2detroit.com/news/federal-reserve-keeps-rate-unchanged-1st-meeting-2026" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" class="flex items-center justify-center rounded-md overflow-hidden bg-white" style="width:28px;height:28px;border:1px solid var(--color-pk-border)" data-state="closed" data-slot="tooltip-trigger"><img src="https://www.google.com/s2/favicons?domain=www.fox2detroit.com&amp;sz=64" alt="FOX 2 Detroit" referrerPolicy="no-referrer" width="18" height="18" loading="lazy" style="object-fit:contain"/></a></div></div></div><div class="flex gap-3 relative !h-0 !overflow-hidden !p-0 !m-0" style="content-visibility:hidden" inert="" aria-hidden="true"><div class="flex flex-col items-center shrink-0"><div class="w-px h-[7px] bg-pk-border"></div><div class="w-3 h-3 rounded-full border-2 border-pk-gray-300 bg-pk-surface shrink-0"></div><div class="w-px flex-1 bg-pk-border"></div></div><div class="flex-1 pb-8"><span class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary">May 13 2026</span><p class="text-body-base font-semibold text-pk-content-primary leading-5 mt-1">US inflation rises to 4.2% in May, highest in three years amid energy price shock</p><p class="flex items-center gap-1 text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary mt-0.5"><span>25 bps increase<!-- --> <!-- -->drops to<!-- --> <!-- -->12<!-- -->%</span><span class="inline-flex items-center gap-0.5 font-semibold text-pk-content-accent-red"><svg width="8" height="8" viewBox="0 0 12 12" fill="none" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><path d="M6.51952 9.5C6.28858 9.9 5.71123 9.9 5.48029 9.5L1.84298 3.2C1.61204 2.8 1.90072 2.3 2.3626 2.3L9.63721 2.3C10.0991 2.3 10.3878 2.8 10.1568 3.2L6.51952 9.5Z" fill="currentColor"></path></svg>14<!-- -->%</span></p><p class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-secondary leading-5 mt-1">US Consumer Price Index inflation accelerated to 4.2% year-over-year in May 2026, driven mainly by energy price shocks linked to Middle East conflicts. This surge diminished hopes for rate cuts and increased market expectations for a potential rate hike later in the year.</p><div class="flex items-center gap-1.5 mt-3"><a href="https://cambridgecurrencies.com/next-federal-reserve-interest-rate-decision/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" class="flex items-center justify-center rounded-md overflow-hidden bg-white" style="width:28px;height:28px;border:1px solid var(--color-pk-border)" data-state="closed" data-slot="tooltip-trigger"><img src="https://www.google.com/s2/favicons?domain=cambridgecurrencies.com&amp;sz=64" alt="Cambridge Currencies" referrerPolicy="no-referrer" width="18" height="18" loading="lazy" style="object-fit:contain"/></a></div></div></div><div class="flex gap-3 relative !h-0 !overflow-hidden !p-0 !m-0" style="content-visibility:hidden" inert="" aria-hidden="true"><div class="flex flex-col items-center shrink-0"><div class="w-px h-[7px] bg-pk-border"></div><div class="w-3 h-3 rounded-full border-2 border-pk-gray-300 bg-pk-surface shrink-0"></div><div class="w-px flex-1 bg-pk-border"></div></div><div class="flex-1 pb-8"><span class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary">May 13 2026</span><p class="text-body-base font-semibold text-pk-content-primary leading-5 mt-1">Federal Reserve maintains steady rates amid mixed economic signals</p><p class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-secondary leading-5 mt-1">At the start of the analysis window, the Fed held rates steady as economic data showed mixed signals on inflation and growth. Market prices reflected uncertainty, with the &#x27;No change&#x27; and &#x27;25 bps increase&#x27; options both holding significant probabilities.</p><div class="flex items-center gap-1.5 mt-3"><a href="https://www.fox4news.com/news/federal-reserve-keeps-rate-unchanged-1st-meeting-2026" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" class="flex items-center justify-center rounded-md overflow-hidden bg-white" style="width:28px;height:28px;border:1px solid var(--color-pk-border)" data-state="closed" data-slot="tooltip-trigger"><img src="https://www.google.com/s2/favicons?domain=www.fox4news.com&amp;sz=64" alt="Fox 4 Dallas-Fort Worth" referrerPolicy="no-referrer" width="18" height="18" loading="lazy" style="object-fit:contain"/></a></div></div></div><div class="flex gap-3 relative !h-0 !overflow-hidden !p-0 !m-0" style="content-visibility:hidden" inert="" aria-hidden="true"><div class="flex flex-col items-center shrink-0"><div class="w-px h-[7px] bg-pk-border"></div><div class="w-3 h-3 rounded-full border-2 border-pk-gray-300 bg-pk-surface shrink-0"></div><div class="w-px flex-1 bg-pk-border"></div></div><div class="flex-1 pb-8"><span class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary">May 13 2026</span><p class="text-body-base font-semibold text-pk-content-primary leading-5 mt-1">Stronger-than-expected inflation report shifts market outlook away from rate cuts</p><p class="flex items-center gap-1 text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary mt-0.5"><span>25 bps increase<!-- --> <!-- -->jumps to<!-- --> <!-- -->38<!-- -->%</span><span class="inline-flex items-center gap-0.5 font-semibold text-pk-content-accent-green"><svg width="8" height="8" viewBox="0 0 12 12" fill="none" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><path d="M6.51952 2.5C6.28858 2.1 5.71123 2.1 5.48029 2.5L1.84298 8.8C1.61204 9.2 1.90072 9.7 2.3626 9.7L9.63721 9.7C10.0991 9.7 10.3878 9.2 10.1568 8.8L6.51952 2.5Z" fill="currentColor"></path></svg>12<!-- -->%</span></p><p class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-secondary leading-5 mt-1">A May inflation report showed a 4.2% annual CPI increase, the highest in three years, raising concerns about persistent inflation and reducing expectations for near-term Fed rate cuts. This led markets to price in a higher chance of a rate hike later in 2026.</p><div class="flex items-center gap-1.5 mt-3"><a href="https://primerates.com/may-2026-cpi-inflation-4-2-percent-core-2-9-june-fed/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" class="flex items-center justify-center rounded-md overflow-hidden bg-white" style="width:28px;height:28px;border:1px solid var(--color-pk-border)" data-state="closed" data-slot="tooltip-trigger"><img src="https://www.google.com/s2/favicons?domain=primerates.com&amp;sz=64" alt="PrimeRates" referrerPolicy="no-referrer" width="18" height="18" loading="lazy" style="object-fit:contain"/></a></div></div></div><div class="flex gap-3 relative !h-0 !overflow-hidden !p-0 !m-0" style="content-visibility:hidden" inert="" aria-hidden="true"><div class="flex flex-col items-center shrink-0"><div class="w-px h-[7px] bg-pk-border"></div><div class="w-3 h-3 rounded-full border-2 border-pk-gray-300 bg-pk-surface shrink-0"></div><div class="w-px flex-1 bg-pk-border"></div></div><div class="flex-1 pb-8"><span class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary">May 13 2026</span><p class="text-body-base font-semibold text-pk-content-primary leading-5 mt-1">Kevin Warsh confirmed as Federal Reserve Chair by Senate</p><p class="flex items-center gap-1 text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary mt-0.5"><span>25 bps increase<!-- --> <!-- -->plunges to<!-- --> <!-- -->11<!-- -->%</span><span class="inline-flex items-center gap-0.5 font-semibold text-pk-content-accent-red"><svg width="8" height="8" viewBox="0 0 12 12" fill="none" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><path d="M6.51952 9.5C6.28858 9.9 5.71123 9.9 5.48029 9.5L1.84298 3.2C1.61204 2.8 1.90072 2.3 2.3626 2.3L9.63721 2.3C10.0991 2.3 10.3878 2.8 10.1568 3.2L6.51952 9.5Z" fill="currentColor"></path></svg>15<!-- -->%</span></p><p class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-secondary leading-5 mt-1">Kevin Warsh&#x27;s confirmation as Fed Chair introduced expectations of a hawkish monetary policy stance amid ongoing inflation challenges, influencing market pricing toward a potential rate hike later in 2026.</p><div class="flex items-center gap-1.5 mt-3"><a href="https://polymarket.copilot.markets/event/fed-decision-in-september-762" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" class="flex items-center justify-center rounded-md overflow-hidden bg-white" style="width:28px;height:28px;border:1px solid var(--color-pk-border)" data-state="closed" data-slot="tooltip-trigger"><img src="https://www.google.com/s2/favicons?domain=polymarket.copilot.markets&amp;sz=64" alt="Polymarket" referrerPolicy="no-referrer" width="18" height="18" loading="lazy" style="object-fit:contain"/></a></div></div></div><div class="flex gap-3 relative !h-0 !overflow-hidden !p-0 !m-0" style="content-visibility:hidden" inert="" aria-hidden="true"><div class="flex flex-col items-center shrink-0"><div class="w-px h-[7px] bg-pk-border"></div><div class="w-3 h-3 rounded-full border-2 border-pk-gray-300 bg-pk-surface shrink-0"></div><div class="w-px flex-1 bg-pk-border"></div></div><div class="flex-1 pb-8"><span class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary">May 13 2026</span><p class="text-body-base font-semibold text-pk-content-primary leading-5 mt-1">US inflation rises 4.2% year over year, highest in three years</p><p class="flex items-center gap-1 text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary mt-0.5"><span>No change<!-- --> <!-- -->plunges to<!-- --> <!-- -->50<!-- -->%</span><span class="inline-flex items-center gap-0.5 font-semibold text-pk-content-accent-red"><svg width="8" height="8" viewBox="0 0 12 12" fill="none" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><path d="M6.51952 9.5C6.28858 9.9 5.71123 9.9 5.48029 9.5L1.84298 3.2C1.61204 2.8 1.90072 2.3 2.3626 2.3L9.63721 2.3C10.0991 2.3 10.3878 2.8 10.1568 3.2L6.51952 9.5Z" fill="currentColor"></path></svg>17<!-- -->%</span></p><p class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-secondary leading-5 mt-1">Inflation data released in May showed a 4.2% increase year over year, the highest in three years, dampening hopes for rate cuts and supporting expectations that the Fed would maintain or raise rates to combat inflation.</p><div class="flex items-center gap-1.5 mt-3"><a href="https://www.aol.de/articles/federal-raise-lower-interest-rates-102000196.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" class="flex items-center justify-center rounded-md overflow-hidden bg-white" style="width:28px;height:28px;border:1px solid var(--color-pk-border)" data-state="closed" data-slot="tooltip-trigger"><img src="https://www.google.com/s2/favicons?domain=www.aol.de&amp;sz=64" alt="AOL" referrerPolicy="no-referrer" width="18" height="18" loading="lazy" style="object-fit:contain"/></a></div></div></div><div class="flex justify-center mt-4"><button type="button" class="text-body-sm font-medium text-pk-content-primary px-4 py-2 rounded-full border border-pk-border cursor-pointer transition-colors hover:bg-pk-hover-overlay-darker">Show more</button></div></div></article></div></div></div></div><div class="fresnel-container fresnel-lessThan-lg fresnel-_R_10qt4ltcnpfmi9arjabaivb_ contents"><div class="mt-8 w-full mb-6"><span class="sr-only">The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.

This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve&#x27;s September 2026 meeting.

If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there&#x27;s a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)

The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for September 15-16, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.

The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.

This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their September meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the &quot;No change&quot; bracket.</span><span class="sr-only">Recent strong August jobs data, showing 162,000 payroll gains well above expectations alongside steady 4.1% unemployment and upward revisions, has reinforced views of labor market resilience and supported trader bets on a 25 basis point hike. Hawkish signals from Chair Kevin Warsh at Jackson Hole, emphasizing persistent inflation above the 2% target amid supply pressures and the need for tighter financial conditions, have further tilted implied probabilities slightly toward action at the September 15-16 FOMC meeting. At the same time, the July 9-3 hold vote with three dissents for tightening, mixed official comments on data dependence, and the pending August CPI release keep no-change odds nearly even. This balance reflects traders&#x27; real-money assessment of incoming indicators versus divided policy signals, with the next inflation print likely to tip the scales.</span><div role="tablist" aria-label="Market information"><div class="mb-4"><div data-arrow-visibility="off" class="relative"><div class="pk-scroll-fade-x-stateful flex gap-4 overflow-x-auto no-scrollbar" data-scroll-fade-initial=""><h2 class="contents"><button id="_R_30qt4ltcnpfmi9arjabaivb_-tab-rules" type="button" class="text-heading-lg font-semibold cursor-pointer whitespace-nowrap shrink-0 transition-colors duration-150 text-pk-content-primary">Rules</button></h2><h2 class="contents"><button id="_R_30qt4ltcnpfmi9arjabaivb_-tab-context" type="button" class="text-heading-lg font-semibold cursor-pointer whitespace-nowrap shrink-0 transition-colors duration-150 text-pk-content-secondary hover:text-pk-content-tertiary">Market Context</button></h2></div></div></div></div><div class="pt-1"><div role="tabpanel" id="_R_30qt4ltcnpfmi9arjabaivb_-panel-rules" aria-labelledby="_R_30qt4ltcnpfmi9arjabaivb_-tab-rules"><div><div><div class="relative w-full text-body-base wrap-break-word max-lg:w-[calc(100vw-2rem)] max-lg:max-w-[calc(100vw-2rem)] [&amp;_a]:text-pk-content-accent-brand"><span class="sr-only">The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.<br/><br/>This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve&#x27;s September 2026 meeting.<br/><br/>If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there&#x27;s a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)<br/><br/>The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for September 15-16, 2026 according to the official calendar: <a href="https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" class="hover:underline">https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm</a>.<br/><br/>The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at <a href="https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" class="hover:underline">https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm</a>.<br/><br/>This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their September meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the &quot;No change&quot; bracket.</span><span class="whitespace-pre-line transition-opacity duration-100 ease-out group-hover:opacity-60"><span style="display:-webkit-box;-webkit-line-clamp:7;-webkit-box-orient:vertical;overflow:hidden">The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.

This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve&#x27;s September 2026 meeting.

If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there&#x27;s a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)

The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for September 15-16, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.

The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.

This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their September meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the &quot;No change&quot; bracket.</span></span></div><div class="my-4 sm:hidden"><div class="flex lg:flex-row max-lg:flex-col max-lg:w-full max-lg:gap-4"><div class="flex max-sm:justify-between max-sm:items-center"><div class="flex items-center gap-2"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="18px" height="18px" viewBox="0 0 18 18" class="size-6 text-pk-content-accent-brand"><path d="M13.25,12.5c-.414,0-.75-.336-.75-.75V3.75c0-.414,.336-.75,.75-.75s.75,.336,.75,.75V11.75c0,.414-.336,.75-.75,.75Z" fill="currentColor" data-color="color-2"></path><path d="M6.25,12.5c-.414,0-.75-.336-.75-.75V6.75c0-.414,.336-.75,.75-.75s.75,.336,.75,.75v5c0,.414-.336,.75-.75,.75Z" fill="currentColor" data-color="color-2"></path><path d="M9.75,12.5c-.414,0-.75-.336-.75-.75v-2c0-.414,.336-.75,.75-.75s.75,.336,.75,.75v2c0,.414-.336,.75-.75,.75Z" fill="currentColor" data-color="color-2"></path><path d="M15.25,15.5H4.75c-1.517,0-2.75-1.233-2.75-2.75V2.75c0-.414,.336-.75,.75-.75s.75,.336,.75,.75V12.75c0,.689,.561,1.25,1.25,1.25H15.25c.414,0,.75,.336,.75,.75s-.336,.75-.75,.75Z" fill="currentColor"></path></svg><span class="text-sm font-bold overflow-hidden whitespace-nowrap text-ellipsis">Volume</span></div><span class="text-sm overflow-hidden whitespace-nowrap text-ellipsis">$103,449,144</span></div><div class="flex max-sm:justify-between max-sm:items-center"><div class="flex items-center gap-2"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="18px" height="18px" viewBox="0 0 18 18" class="size-6 text-pk-content-accent-brand"><path d="M9,1C4.589,1,1,4.589,1,9s3.589,8,8,8,8-3.589,8-8S13.411,1,9,1Zm3.867,10.677c-.146,.21-.379,.323-.617,.323-.147,0-.296-.043-.426-.133l-3.25-2.25c-.203-.14-.323-.371-.323-.617V4.75c0-.414,.336-.75,.75-.75s.75,.336,.75,.75v3.857l2.927,2.026c.341,.236,.426,.703,.19,1.043Z" fill="currentColor"></path></svg><span class="text-sm font-bold overflow-hidden whitespace-nowrap text-ellipsis">End Date</span></div><span class="text-sm overflow-hidden whitespace-nowrap text-ellipsis">Sep 16, 2026</span></div><div class="flex max-sm:justify-between max-sm:items-center"><div class="flex items-center gap-2"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="18px" height="18px" viewBox="0 0 18 18" class="size-6 text-pk-content-accent-brand"><path d="M9,1C4.589,1,1,4.589,1,9s3.589,8,8,8,8-3.589,8-8S13.411,1,9,1Zm3.867,10.677c-.146,.21-.379,.323-.617,.323-.147,0-.296-.043-.426-.133l-3.25-2.25c-.203-.14-.323-.371-.323-.617V4.75c0-.414,.336-.75,.75-.75s.75,.336,.75,.75v3.857l2.927,2.026c.341,.236,.426,.703,.19,1.043Z" fill="currentColor"></path></svg><span class="text-sm font-bold overflow-hidden whitespace-nowrap text-ellipsis">Market Opened</span></div><span class="text-sm overflow-hidden whitespace-nowrap text-ellipsis">May 13, 2026, 5:10 PM ET</span></div></div></div><div class="my-4"><div class="flex max-w-full lg:flex-row lg:gap-4 max-lg:flex-col max-lg:gap-2"><div class="flex gap-4 rounded-xl shadow-pk-minimal-soft pr-6 py-3 items-center justify-start max-w-full overflow-hidden bg-pk-elevated flex-1 basis-0 min-w-0 min-h-16 pl-2"><div class="ml-2"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" id="logo" viewBox="0 0 137 34.316" width="36px"><path fill="#ff4a4a" d="M40.635,34.02H34.841a1.968,1.968,0,0,1-1.971-1.965V16.786L22.7,23.145a2.634,2.634,0,0,1-2.792,0L9.736,16.785v15.27A1.968,1.968,0,0,1,7.765,34.02H1.971A1.968,1.968,0,0,1,0,32.055V2.625A2.628,2.628,0,0,1,4.112.464L20.19,11.445a1.974,1.974,0,0,0,2.228,0L38.493.464a2.627,2.627,0,0,1,4.113,2.16V32.055a1.968,1.968,0,0,1-1.971,1.965" transform="translate(47.24 0.296)"></path><path fill="#ff4a4a" d="M38.511,34.054H2.615A2.612,2.612,0,0,1,0,31.444V1.957A1.959,1.959,0,0,1,1.961,0H7.728A1.959,1.959,0,0,1,9.689,1.957v22.43H31.437V1.957A1.958,1.958,0,0,1,33.4,0h5.767a1.959,1.959,0,0,1,1.961,1.957V31.445a2.612,2.612,0,0,1-2.615,2.609" transform="translate(0 0)"></path><path fill="#ff4a4a" d="M2.615,0h35.9a2.612,2.612,0,0,1,2.615,2.609V32.1a1.959,1.959,0,0,1-1.961,1.957H33.4A1.959,1.959,0,0,1,31.437,32.1V10.971a1.306,1.306,0,0,0-1.308-1.3H11a1.306,1.306,0,0,0-1.308,1.3V32.1a1.959,1.959,0,0,1-1.961,1.957H1.961A1.959,1.959,0,0,1,0,32.1V2.609A2.612,2.612,0,0,1,2.615,0" transform="translate(95.874 0)"></path><path fill="#ff4a4a" d="M0,1.943V7.749A1.953,1.953,0,0,0,1.963,9.692H7.729A1.953,1.953,0,0,0,9.692,7.749V1.943A1.953,1.953,0,0,0,7.729,0H1.963A1.953,1.953,0,0,0,0,1.943" transform="translate(111.591 15.979)"></path></svg></div><div class="flex-grow flex flex-col justify-center w-full overflow-hidden min-w-0"><p class="truncate text-pk-content-secondary text-body-base">Resolver</p><a class="block w-full truncate text-pk-content-accent-brand hover:text-pk-brand-600 text-body-base" href="https://polygonscan.com/address/0x69c47De9D4D3Dad79590d61b9e05918E03775f24" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">0x69c47De9D...</a></div></div></div></div></div></div></div><div role="tabpanel" id="_R_30qt4ltcnpfmi9arjabaivb_-panel-context" aria-labelledby="_R_30qt4ltcnpfmi9arjabaivb_-tab-context" hidden=""><script type="application/ld+json">{"@context":"https://schema.org","@type":"Article","mainEntityOfPage":{"@type":"WebPage","@id":"https://polymarket.com/event/fed-decision-in-september-762"},"headline":"Fed Decision in September? — Market Context","description":"Recent strong August jobs data, showing 162,000 payroll gains well above expectations alongside steady 4.","articleBody":"Recent strong August jobs data, showing 162,000 payroll gains well above expectations alongside steady 4.1% unemployment and upward revisions, has reinforced views of labor market resilience and supported trader bets on a 25 basis point hike. Hawkish signals from Chair Kevin Warsh at Jackson Hole, emphasizing persistent inflation above the 2% target amid supply pressures and the need for tighter financial conditions, have further tilted implied probabilities slightly toward action at the September 15-16 FOMC meeting. At the same time, the July 9-3 hold vote with three dissents for tightening, mixed official comments on data dependence, and the pending August CPI release keep no-change odds nearly even. This balance reflects traders' real-money assessment of incoming indicators versus divided policy signals, with the next inflation print likely to tip the scales.","image":"https://polymarket.com/api/og?eslug=fed-decision-in-september-762","datePublished":"2026-05-13T21:23:09.737806Z","dateModified":"2026-09-08T07:45:14.605Z","author":{"@type":"Organization","name":"Polymarket","url":"https://polymarket.com"},"publisher":{"@type":"Organization","name":"Polymarket","url":"https://polymarket.com","logo":{"@type":"ImageObject","url":"https://polymarket.com/icons/apple-touch-icon.png"}},"isPartOf":{"@id":"https://polymarket.com/event/fed-decision-in-september-762#event"}}</script><article><p class="text-sm text-pk-content-primary leading-6">Recent strong August jobs data, showing 162,000 payroll gains well above expectations alongside steady 4.1% unemployment and upward revisions, has reinforced views of labor market resilience and supported trader bets on a 25 basis point hike. Hawkish signals from Chair Kevin Warsh at Jackson Hole, emphasizing persistent inflation above the 2% target amid supply pressures and the need for tighter financial conditions, have further tilted implied probabilities slightly toward action at the September 15-16 FOMC meeting. At the same time, the July 9-3 hold vote with three dissents for tightening, mixed official comments on data dependence, and the pending August CPI release keep no-change odds nearly even. This balance reflects traders&#x27; real-money assessment of incoming indicators versus divided policy signals, with the next inflation print likely to tip the scales.</p><small class="text-pk-content-tertiary text-xs mt-2 block">Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves.<!-- --> · Updated <time dateTime="2026-09-08T07:45:14.605Z">Sep 8, 2026, 7:45 AM UTC</time></small><div class="mt-6"><div class="flex gap-3 relative"><div class="flex flex-col items-center shrink-0"><div class="h-[7px]"></div><div class="w-3 h-3 rounded-full border-2 border-pk-gray-300 bg-pk-surface shrink-0"></div><div class="w-px flex-1 bg-pk-border"></div></div><div class="flex-1 pb-8"><span class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary">Sep 4 2026</span><p class="text-body-base font-semibold text-pk-content-primary leading-5 mt-1">August U.S. jobs report shows strong employment gains</p><p class="flex items-center gap-1 text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary mt-0.5"><span>25 bps increase<!-- --> <!-- -->surges to<!-- --> <!-- -->55<!-- -->%</span><span class="inline-flex items-center gap-0.5 font-semibold text-pk-content-accent-green"><svg width="8" height="8" viewBox="0 0 12 12" fill="none" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><path d="M6.51952 2.5C6.28858 2.1 5.71123 2.1 5.48029 2.5L1.84298 8.8C1.61204 9.2 1.90072 9.7 2.3626 9.7L9.63721 9.7C10.0991 9.7 10.3878 9.2 10.1568 8.8L6.51952 2.5Z" fill="currentColor"></path></svg>27<!-- -->%</span></p><p class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-secondary leading-5 mt-1">The U.S. added 162,000 jobs in August, well above the expected 55,000, with unemployment steady at 4.1%. This strong labor market data raised hopes for a Fed rate hike in September, supporting the market&#x27;s increased pricing of a 25 basis points increase.</p><div class="flex items-center gap-1.5 mt-3"><a href="https://coingape.com/fomc-meeting-sept-2026-date-schedule-expectations-and-how-to-watch/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" class="flex items-center justify-center rounded-md overflow-hidden bg-white" style="width:28px;height:28px;border:1px solid var(--color-pk-border)" data-state="closed" data-slot="tooltip-trigger"><img src="https://www.google.com/s2/favicons?domain=coingape.com&amp;sz=64" alt="Coingape" referrerPolicy="no-referrer" width="18" height="18" loading="lazy" style="object-fit:contain"/></a></div></div></div><div class="flex gap-3 relative"><div class="flex flex-col items-center shrink-0"><div class="w-px h-[7px] bg-pk-border"></div><div class="w-3 h-3 rounded-full border-2 border-pk-gray-300 bg-pk-surface shrink-0"></div></div><div class="flex-1 pb-8"><span class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary">Sep 4 2026</span><p class="text-body-base font-semibold text-pk-content-primary leading-5 mt-1">Strong U.S. August jobs report raises odds of Fed rate hike in September</p><p class="flex items-center gap-1 text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary mt-0.5"><span>25 bps increase<!-- --> <!-- -->surges to<!-- --> <!-- -->56<!-- -->%</span><span class="inline-flex items-center gap-0.5 font-semibold text-pk-content-accent-green"><svg width="8" height="8" viewBox="0 0 12 12" fill="none" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><path d="M6.51952 2.5C6.28858 2.1 5.71123 2.1 5.48029 2.5L1.84298 8.8C1.61204 9.2 1.90072 9.7 2.3626 9.7L9.63721 9.7C10.0991 9.7 10.3878 9.2 10.1568 8.8L6.51952 2.5Z" fill="currentColor"></path></svg>28<!-- -->%</span></p><p class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-secondary leading-5 mt-1">The U.S. added 162,000 jobs in August, well above expectations, signaling a robust labor market. This data increased market-implied odds of a 25 bps rate hike at the September FOMC meeting, countering earlier signals for a hold and reflecting the Fed&#x27;s sensitivity to labor market strength in policy decisions.</p><div class="flex items-center gap-1.5 mt-3"><a href="https://www.forumnadlanusa.com/fed-rate-outlook-september-2026-waller-rate-hold/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" class="flex items-center justify-center rounded-md overflow-hidden bg-white" style="width:28px;height:28px;border:1px solid var(--color-pk-border)" data-state="closed" data-slot="tooltip-trigger"><img src="https://www.google.com/s2/favicons?domain=www.forumnadlanusa.com&amp;sz=64" alt="Forumnadlanusa" referrerPolicy="no-referrer" width="18" height="18" loading="lazy" style="object-fit:contain"/></a></div></div></div><div class="flex gap-3 relative !h-0 !overflow-hidden !p-0 !m-0" style="content-visibility:hidden" inert="" aria-hidden="true"><div class="flex flex-col items-center shrink-0"><div class="w-px h-[7px] bg-pk-border"></div><div class="w-3 h-3 rounded-full border-2 border-pk-gray-300 bg-pk-surface shrink-0"></div><div class="w-px flex-1 bg-pk-border"></div></div><div class="flex-1 pb-8"><span class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary">Sep 4 2026</span><p class="text-body-base font-semibold text-pk-content-primary leading-5 mt-1">August jobs report shows softer employment growth</p><p class="flex items-center gap-1 text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary mt-0.5"><span>No change<!-- --> <!-- -->drops to<!-- --> <!-- -->65<!-- -->%</span><span class="inline-flex items-center gap-0.5 font-semibold text-pk-content-accent-red"><svg width="8" height="8" viewBox="0 0 12 12" fill="none" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><path d="M6.51952 9.5C6.28858 9.9 5.71123 9.9 5.48029 9.5L1.84298 3.2C1.61204 2.8 1.90072 2.3 2.3626 2.3L9.63721 2.3C10.0991 2.3 10.3878 2.8 10.1568 3.2L6.51952 9.5Z" fill="currentColor"></path></svg>7<!-- -->%</span></p><p class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-secondary leading-5 mt-1">The August jobs report released on September 4 indicated softer employment growth, which reduced the urgency for a Fed rate hike and supported market expectations for the Fed to hold rates steady in September.</p><div class="flex items-center gap-1.5 mt-3"><a href="https://www.regardsofwallstreet.com/news/august-jobs-report-2026-september-4-date-forecast" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" class="flex items-center justify-center rounded-md overflow-hidden bg-white" style="width:28px;height:28px;border:1px solid var(--color-pk-border)" data-state="closed" data-slot="tooltip-trigger"><img src="https://www.google.com/s2/favicons?domain=www.regardsofwallstreet.com&amp;sz=64" alt="Regards of Wallstreet" referrerPolicy="no-referrer" width="18" height="18" loading="lazy" style="object-fit:contain"/></a></div></div></div><div class="flex gap-3 relative !h-0 !overflow-hidden !p-0 !m-0" style="content-visibility:hidden" inert="" aria-hidden="true"><div class="flex flex-col items-center shrink-0"><div class="w-px h-[7px] bg-pk-border"></div><div class="w-3 h-3 rounded-full border-2 border-pk-gray-300 bg-pk-surface shrink-0"></div><div class="w-px flex-1 bg-pk-border"></div></div><div class="flex-1 pb-8"><span class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary">Sep 3 2026</span><p class="text-body-base font-semibold text-pk-content-primary leading-5 mt-1">Fed Governor Christopher Waller signals preference to hold rates steady if inflation eases</p><p class="flex items-center gap-1 text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary mt-0.5"><span>No change<!-- --> <!-- -->surges to<!-- --> <!-- -->50<!-- -->%</span><span class="inline-flex items-center gap-0.5 font-semibold text-pk-content-accent-green"><svg width="8" height="8" viewBox="0 0 12 12" fill="none" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><path d="M6.51952 2.5C6.28858 2.1 5.71123 2.1 5.48029 2.5L1.84298 8.8C1.61204 9.2 1.90072 9.7 2.3626 9.7L9.63721 9.7C10.0991 9.7 10.3878 9.2 10.1568 8.8L6.51952 2.5Z" fill="currentColor"></path></svg>17<!-- -->%</span></p><p class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-secondary leading-5 mt-1">Governor Waller stated that current interest rates may be sufficient to cool inflation and that holding rates steady at the September meeting would not significantly alter the inflation path. His comments reduced immediate expectations for a hike, though strong August jobs data later shifted odds back toward a possible 25 bps increase.</p><div class="flex items-center gap-1.5 mt-3"><a href="https://www.coingabbar.com/en/crypto-currency-news/fed-rate-decision-september-2026-rate-hold-crypto-impact" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" class="flex items-center justify-center rounded-md overflow-hidden bg-white" style="width:28px;height:28px;border:1px solid var(--color-pk-border)" data-state="closed" data-slot="tooltip-trigger"><img src="https://www.google.com/s2/favicons?domain=www.coingabbar.com&amp;sz=64" alt="Coingabbar" referrerPolicy="no-referrer" width="18" height="18" loading="lazy" style="object-fit:contain"/></a></div></div></div><div class="flex gap-3 relative !h-0 !overflow-hidden !p-0 !m-0" style="content-visibility:hidden" inert="" aria-hidden="true"><div class="flex flex-col items-center shrink-0"><div class="w-px h-[7px] bg-pk-border"></div><div class="w-3 h-3 rounded-full border-2 border-pk-gray-300 bg-pk-surface shrink-0"></div><div class="w-px flex-1 bg-pk-border"></div></div><div class="flex-1 pb-8"><span class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary">Sep 3 2026</span><p class="text-body-base font-semibold text-pk-content-primary leading-5 mt-1">Fed Governor Waller speech highlights inflation above target and potential September rate hike</p><p class="flex items-center gap-1 text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary mt-0.5"><span>25 bps increase<!-- --> <!-- -->jumps to<!-- --> <!-- -->47<!-- -->%</span><span class="inline-flex items-center gap-0.5 font-semibold text-pk-content-accent-green"><svg width="8" height="8" viewBox="0 0 12 12" fill="none" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><path d="M6.51952 2.5C6.28858 2.1 5.71123 2.1 5.48029 2.5L1.84298 8.8C1.61204 9.2 1.90072 9.7 2.3626 9.7L9.63721 9.7C10.0991 9.7 10.3878 9.2 10.1568 8.8L6.51952 2.5Z" fill="currentColor"></path></svg>8<!-- -->%</span></p><p class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-secondary leading-5 mt-1">Governor Christopher Waller delivered a speech on September 3, 2026, emphasizing that inflation remains meaningfully above the Fed&#x27;s 2% goal and suggesting that a rate increase at the September 15-16 meeting may be appropriate. This reinforced market expectations for a 25 basis point hike.</p><div class="flex items-center gap-1.5 mt-3"><a href="https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/waller20260903a.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" class="flex items-center justify-center rounded-md overflow-hidden bg-white" style="width:28px;height:28px;border:1px solid var(--color-pk-border)" data-state="closed" data-slot="tooltip-trigger"><img src="https://www.google.com/s2/favicons?domain=www.federalreserve.gov&amp;sz=64" alt="Federal Reserve" referrerPolicy="no-referrer" width="18" height="18" loading="lazy" style="object-fit:contain"/></a></div></div></div><div class="flex gap-3 relative !h-0 !overflow-hidden !p-0 !m-0" style="content-visibility:hidden" inert="" aria-hidden="true"><div class="flex flex-col items-center shrink-0"><div class="w-px h-[7px] bg-pk-border"></div><div class="w-3 h-3 rounded-full border-2 border-pk-gray-300 bg-pk-surface shrink-0"></div><div class="w-px flex-1 bg-pk-border"></div></div><div class="flex-1 pb-8"><span class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary">Sep 3 2026</span><p class="text-body-base font-semibold text-pk-content-primary leading-5 mt-1">Federal Reserve official signals possible rate hike at September meeting</p><p class="flex items-center gap-1 text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary mt-0.5"><span>25 bps increase<!-- --> <!-- -->jumps to<!-- --> <!-- -->50<!-- -->%</span><span class="inline-flex items-center gap-0.5 font-semibold text-pk-content-accent-green"><svg width="8" height="8" viewBox="0 0 12 12" fill="none" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><path d="M6.51952 2.5C6.28858 2.1 5.71123 2.1 5.48029 2.5L1.84298 8.8C1.61204 9.2 1.90072 9.7 2.3626 9.7L9.63721 9.7C10.0991 9.7 10.3878 9.2 10.1568 8.8L6.51952 2.5Z" fill="currentColor"></path></svg>12<!-- -->%</span></p><p class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-secondary leading-5 mt-1">On September 3, 2026, Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller indicated that while inflation remains above target, recent data suggest a rate increase may be appropriate at the upcoming September 15-16 FOMC meeting, influencing market expectations for a 25 bps hike.</p><div class="flex items-center gap-1.5 mt-3"><a href="https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/files/waller20260903a.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" class="flex items-center justify-center rounded-md overflow-hidden bg-white" style="width:28px;height:28px;border:1px solid var(--color-pk-border)" data-state="closed" data-slot="tooltip-trigger"><img src="https://www.google.com/s2/favicons?domain=www.federalreserve.gov&amp;sz=64" alt="Federal Reserve" referrerPolicy="no-referrer" width="18" height="18" loading="lazy" style="object-fit:contain"/></a></div></div></div><div class="flex gap-3 relative !h-0 !overflow-hidden !p-0 !m-0" style="content-visibility:hidden" inert="" aria-hidden="true"><div class="flex flex-col items-center shrink-0"><div class="w-px h-[7px] bg-pk-border"></div><div class="w-3 h-3 rounded-full border-2 border-pk-gray-300 bg-pk-surface shrink-0"></div><div class="w-px flex-1 bg-pk-border"></div></div><div class="flex-1 pb-8"><span class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary">Sep 2 2026</span><p class="text-body-base font-semibold text-pk-content-primary leading-5 mt-1">Market shifts toward expecting a September 2026 Fed rate hike</p><p class="flex items-center gap-1 text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary mt-0.5"><span>25 bps increase<!-- --> <!-- -->surges to<!-- --> <!-- -->51<!-- -->%</span><span class="inline-flex items-center gap-0.5 font-semibold text-pk-content-accent-green"><svg width="8" height="8" viewBox="0 0 12 12" fill="none" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><path d="M6.51952 2.5C6.28858 2.1 5.71123 2.1 5.48029 2.5L1.84298 8.8C1.61204 9.2 1.90072 9.7 2.3626 9.7L9.63721 9.7C10.0991 9.7 10.3878 9.2 10.1568 8.8L6.51952 2.5Z" fill="currentColor"></path></svg>18<!-- -->%</span></p><p class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-secondary leading-5 mt-1">As the September FOMC meeting approached, market pricing indicated roughly a two-thirds probability of a 25 basis point rate increase, driven by persistent inflation and hawkish Fed signals from July.</p><div class="flex items-center gap-1.5 mt-3"><a href="https://www.bitrue.com/blog/fomc-meeting-september-2026" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" class="flex items-center justify-center rounded-md overflow-hidden bg-white" style="width:28px;height:28px;border:1px solid var(--color-pk-border)" data-state="closed" data-slot="tooltip-trigger"><img src="https://www.google.com/s2/favicons?domain=www.bitrue.com&amp;sz=64" alt="Bitrue" referrerPolicy="no-referrer" width="18" height="18" loading="lazy" style="object-fit:contain"/></a></div></div></div><div class="flex gap-3 relative !h-0 !overflow-hidden !p-0 !m-0" style="content-visibility:hidden" inert="" aria-hidden="true"><div class="flex flex-col items-center shrink-0"><div class="w-px h-[7px] bg-pk-border"></div><div class="w-3 h-3 rounded-full border-2 border-pk-gray-300 bg-pk-surface shrink-0"></div><div class="w-px flex-1 bg-pk-border"></div></div><div class="flex-1 pb-8"><span class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary">Sep 2 2026</span><p class="text-body-base font-semibold text-pk-content-primary leading-5 mt-1">Rising inflation and hawkish Fed signals boost odds of September rate hike</p><p class="flex items-center gap-1 text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary mt-0.5"><span>25 bps increase<!-- --> <!-- -->jumps to<!-- --> <!-- -->50<!-- -->%</span><span class="inline-flex items-center gap-0.5 font-semibold text-pk-content-accent-green"><svg width="8" height="8" viewBox="0 0 12 12" fill="none" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><path d="M6.51952 2.5C6.28858 2.1 5.71123 2.1 5.48029 2.5L1.84298 8.8C1.61204 9.2 1.90072 9.7 2.3626 9.7L9.63721 9.7C10.0991 9.7 10.3878 9.2 10.1568 8.8L6.51952 2.5Z" fill="currentColor"></path></svg>6<!-- -->%</span></p><p class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-secondary leading-5 mt-1">In early September 2026, persistent inflation and hawkish signals from Fed officials increased market pricing for a 25 bps rate hike at the September 15-16 meeting, reflected in rising probabilities and shifting investor sentiment.</p><div class="flex items-center gap-1.5 mt-3"><a href="https://www.cmegroup.com/trading/interest-rates/countdown-to-fomc.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" class="flex items-center justify-center rounded-md overflow-hidden bg-white" style="width:28px;height:28px;border:1px solid var(--color-pk-border)" data-state="closed" data-slot="tooltip-trigger"><img src="https://www.google.com/s2/favicons?domain=www.cmegroup.com&amp;sz=64" alt="CME FedWatch" referrerPolicy="no-referrer" width="18" height="18" loading="lazy" style="object-fit:contain"/></a></div></div></div><div class="flex gap-3 relative !h-0 !overflow-hidden !p-0 !m-0" style="content-visibility:hidden" inert="" aria-hidden="true"><div class="flex flex-col items-center shrink-0"><div class="w-px h-[7px] bg-pk-border"></div><div class="w-3 h-3 rounded-full border-2 border-pk-gray-300 bg-pk-surface shrink-0"></div><div class="w-px flex-1 bg-pk-border"></div></div><div class="flex-1 pb-8"><span class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary">Sep 2 2026</span><p class="text-body-base font-semibold text-pk-content-primary leading-5 mt-1">Rising geopolitical tensions keep inflation elevated, pressuring Fed policy outlook</p><p class="flex items-center gap-1 text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary mt-0.5"><span>25 bps increase<!-- --> <!-- -->surges to<!-- --> <!-- -->51<!-- -->%</span><span class="inline-flex items-center gap-0.5 font-semibold text-pk-content-accent-green"><svg width="8" height="8" viewBox="0 0 12 12" fill="none" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><path d="M6.51952 2.5C6.28858 2.1 5.71123 2.1 5.48029 2.5L1.84298 8.8C1.61204 9.2 1.90072 9.7 2.3626 9.7L9.63721 9.7C10.0991 9.7 10.3878 9.2 10.1568 8.8L6.51952 2.5Z" fill="currentColor"></path></svg>23<!-- -->%</span></p><p class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-secondary leading-5 mt-1">Ongoing conflict in the Middle East and resulting energy price shocks maintained inflationary pressures, limiting the Fed&#x27;s ability to ease policy and increasing market expectations for a rate hike at the September meeting.</p><div class="flex items-center gap-1.5 mt-3"><a href="https://blocknews.com/federal-reserve-holds-interest-rates-steady-here-is-why-markets-are-watching-september/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" class="flex items-center justify-center rounded-md overflow-hidden bg-white" style="width:28px;height:28px;border:1px solid var(--color-pk-border)" data-state="closed" data-slot="tooltip-trigger"><img src="https://www.google.com/s2/favicons?domain=blocknews.com&amp;sz=64" alt="BlockNews" referrerPolicy="no-referrer" width="18" height="18" loading="lazy" style="object-fit:contain"/></a></div></div></div><div class="flex gap-3 relative !h-0 !overflow-hidden !p-0 !m-0" style="content-visibility:hidden" inert="" aria-hidden="true"><div class="flex flex-col items-center shrink-0"><div class="w-px h-[7px] bg-pk-border"></div><div class="w-3 h-3 rounded-full border-2 border-pk-gray-300 bg-pk-surface shrink-0"></div><div class="w-px flex-1 bg-pk-border"></div></div><div class="flex-1 pb-8"><span class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary">Aug 31 2026</span><p class="text-body-base font-semibold text-pk-content-primary leading-5 mt-1">Federal Reserve holds interest rates steady amid persistent inflation and economic growth</p><p class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-secondary leading-5 mt-1">In late August, the Fed maintained its benchmark interest rate at 3.5%-3.75%, reaffirming its commitment to price stability despite ongoing inflation above target and solid economic activity. The decision followed the July meeting and preceded the September FOMC, with three dissenters again favoring a hike, underscoring internal Fed divisions.</p><div class="flex items-center gap-1.5 mt-3"><a href="https://www.ahmedabadmirror.com/us-federal-reserve-holds-int-rates-steady/81918754.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" class="flex items-center justify-center rounded-md overflow-hidden bg-white" style="width:28px;height:28px;border:1px solid var(--color-pk-border)" data-state="closed" data-slot="tooltip-trigger"><img src="https://www.google.com/s2/favicons?domain=www.ahmedabadmirror.com&amp;sz=64" alt="Ahmedabad Mirror" referrerPolicy="no-referrer" width="18" height="18" loading="lazy" style="object-fit:contain"/></a></div></div></div><div class="flex gap-3 relative !h-0 !overflow-hidden !p-0 !m-0" style="content-visibility:hidden" inert="" aria-hidden="true"><div class="flex flex-col items-center shrink-0"><div class="w-px h-[7px] bg-pk-border"></div><div class="w-3 h-3 rounded-full border-2 border-pk-gray-300 bg-pk-surface shrink-0"></div><div class="w-px flex-1 bg-pk-border"></div></div><div class="flex-1 pb-8"><span class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary">Aug 31 2026</span><p class="text-body-base font-semibold text-pk-content-primary leading-5 mt-1">Federal Reserve maintains rates steady at 3.50%-3.75% amid ongoing inflation and economic growth</p><p class="flex items-center gap-1 text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary mt-0.5"><span>25 bps increase<!-- --> <!-- -->surges to<!-- --> <!-- -->60<!-- -->%</span><span class="inline-flex items-center gap-0.5 font-semibold text-pk-content-accent-green"><svg width="8" height="8" viewBox="0 0 12 12" fill="none" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><path d="M6.51952 2.5C6.28858 2.1 5.71123 2.1 5.48029 2.5L1.84298 8.8C1.61204 9.2 1.90072 9.7 2.3626 9.7L9.63721 9.7C10.0991 9.7 10.3878 9.2 10.1568 8.8L6.51952 2.5Z" fill="currentColor"></path></svg>19<!-- -->%</span></p><p class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-secondary leading-5 mt-1">The Federal Reserve kept its benchmark interest rate unchanged at 3.50%-3.75% in late August, reaffirming its commitment to price stability despite elevated inflation and solid economic activity. The decision, supported by a 9-3 vote with dissenters favoring a hike, maintained market expectations for a potential 25 bps increase in the upcoming September meeting.</p><div class="flex items-center gap-1.5 mt-3"><a href="https://www.ahmedabadmirror.com/us-federal-reserve-holds-int-rates-steady/81918754.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" class="flex items-center justify-center rounded-md overflow-hidden bg-white" style="width:28px;height:28px;border:1px solid var(--color-pk-border)" data-state="closed" data-slot="tooltip-trigger"><img src="https://www.google.com/s2/favicons?domain=www.ahmedabadmirror.com&amp;sz=64" alt="Ahmedabad Mirror" referrerPolicy="no-referrer" width="18" height="18" loading="lazy" style="object-fit:contain"/></a></div></div></div><div class="flex gap-3 relative !h-0 !overflow-hidden !p-0 !m-0" style="content-visibility:hidden" inert="" aria-hidden="true"><div class="flex flex-col items-center shrink-0"><div class="w-px h-[7px] bg-pk-border"></div><div class="w-3 h-3 rounded-full border-2 border-pk-gray-300 bg-pk-surface shrink-0"></div><div class="w-px flex-1 bg-pk-border"></div></div><div class="flex-1 pb-8"><span class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary">Aug 31 2026</span><p class="text-body-base font-semibold text-pk-content-primary leading-5 mt-1">Federal Reserve Holds Rates Steady Amid Persistent Inflation and Global Uncertainty</p><p class="flex items-center gap-1 text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary mt-0.5"><span>No change<!-- --> <!-- -->dips to<!-- --> <!-- -->50<!-- -->%</span><span class="inline-flex items-center gap-0.5 font-semibold text-pk-content-accent-red"><svg width="8" height="8" viewBox="0 0 12 12" fill="none" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><path d="M6.51952 9.5C6.28858 9.9 5.71123 9.9 5.48029 9.5L1.84298 3.2C1.61204 2.8 1.90072 2.3 2.3626 2.3L9.63721 2.3C10.0991 2.3 10.3878 2.8 10.1568 3.2L6.51952 9.5Z" fill="currentColor"></path></svg>4<!-- -->%</span></p><p class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-secondary leading-5 mt-1">On August 31, the Federal Reserve maintained the federal funds rate at 3.50%-3.75%, reaffirming its commitment to price stability despite ongoing inflation above target and geopolitical risks from the Middle East conflict. The decision was supported by a 9-3 vote, with dissenters again favoring a rate hike, keeping markets attentive to a possible September increase.</p><div class="flex items-center gap-1.5 mt-3"><a href="https://www.ahmedabadmirror.com/us-federal-reserve-holds-int-rates-steady/81918754.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" class="flex items-center justify-center rounded-md overflow-hidden bg-white" style="width:28px;height:28px;border:1px solid var(--color-pk-border)" data-state="closed" data-slot="tooltip-trigger"><img src="https://www.google.com/s2/favicons?domain=www.ahmedabadmirror.com&amp;sz=64" alt="Ahmedabad Mirror" referrerPolicy="no-referrer" width="18" height="18" loading="lazy" style="object-fit:contain"/></a></div></div></div><div class="flex gap-3 relative !h-0 !overflow-hidden !p-0 !m-0" style="content-visibility:hidden" inert="" aria-hidden="true"><div class="flex flex-col items-center shrink-0"><div class="w-px h-[7px] bg-pk-border"></div><div class="w-3 h-3 rounded-full border-2 border-pk-gray-300 bg-pk-surface shrink-0"></div><div class="w-px flex-1 bg-pk-border"></div></div><div class="flex-1 pb-8"><span class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary">Aug 28 2026</span><p class="text-body-base font-semibold text-pk-content-primary leading-5 mt-1">Fed Chair Warsh&#x27;s Jackson Hole speech emphasizes data-driven policy and inflation fight</p><p class="flex items-center gap-1 text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary mt-0.5"><span>25 bps increase<!-- --> <!-- -->jumps to<!-- --> <!-- -->47<!-- -->%</span><span class="inline-flex items-center gap-0.5 font-semibold text-pk-content-accent-green"><svg width="8" height="8" viewBox="0 0 12 12" fill="none" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><path d="M6.51952 2.5C6.28858 2.1 5.71123 2.1 5.48029 2.5L1.84298 8.8C1.61204 9.2 1.90072 9.7 2.3626 9.7L9.63721 9.7C10.0991 9.7 10.3878 9.2 10.1568 8.8L6.51952 2.5Z" fill="currentColor"></path></svg>14<!-- -->%</span></p><p class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-secondary leading-5 mt-1">In his August 28 speech, Chair Warsh stressed the importance of relying on current data, maintaining the 2% inflation target, and prioritizing short-term interest rates. This reinforced market expectations for a cautious but hawkish approach, supporting the likelihood of a 25 bps hike in September.</p><div class="flex items-center gap-1.5 mt-3"><a href="https://www.prlog.org/13167441-creative-investment-research-on-fed-transparency-representation-and-monetary-policy-credibility.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" class="flex items-center justify-center rounded-md overflow-hidden bg-white" style="width:28px;height:28px;border:1px solid var(--color-pk-border)" data-state="closed" data-slot="tooltip-trigger"><img src="https://www.google.com/s2/favicons?domain=www.prlog.org&amp;sz=64" alt="Creative Investment Research" referrerPolicy="no-referrer" width="18" height="18" loading="lazy" style="object-fit:contain"/></a></div></div></div><div class="flex gap-3 relative !h-0 !overflow-hidden !p-0 !m-0" style="content-visibility:hidden" inert="" aria-hidden="true"><div class="flex flex-col items-center shrink-0"><div class="w-px h-[7px] bg-pk-border"></div><div class="w-3 h-3 rounded-full border-2 border-pk-gray-300 bg-pk-surface shrink-0"></div><div class="w-px flex-1 bg-pk-border"></div></div><div class="flex-1 pb-8"><span class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary">Aug 28 2026</span><p class="text-body-base font-semibold text-pk-content-primary leading-5 mt-1">Fed Chair Kevin Warsh Signals Hawkish Stance at Jackson Hole</p><p class="flex items-center gap-1 text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary mt-0.5"><span>25 bps increase<!-- --> <!-- -->surges to<!-- --> <!-- -->53<!-- -->%</span><span class="inline-flex items-center gap-0.5 font-semibold text-pk-content-accent-green"><svg width="8" height="8" viewBox="0 0 12 12" fill="none" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><path d="M6.51952 2.5C6.28858 2.1 5.71123 2.1 5.48029 2.5L1.84298 8.8C1.61204 9.2 1.90072 9.7 2.3626 9.7L9.63721 9.7C10.0991 9.7 10.3878 9.2 10.1568 8.8L6.51952 2.5Z" fill="currentColor"></path></svg>25<!-- -->%</span></p><p class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-secondary leading-5 mt-1">At the Jackson Hole Economic Symposium, Fed Chair Kevin Warsh emphasized that underlying inflation is not slowing and reiterated the importance of the PCE price index as the inflation gauge. His remarks were interpreted as hawkish, reinforcing market expectations for a 25 bps rate hike at the September FOMC meeting.</p><div class="flex items-center gap-1.5 mt-3"><a href="https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/interest-rate" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" class="flex items-center justify-center rounded-md overflow-hidden bg-white" style="width:28px;height:28px;border:1px solid var(--color-pk-border)" data-state="closed" data-slot="tooltip-trigger"><img src="https://www.google.com/s2/favicons?domain=tradingeconomics.com&amp;sz=64" alt="Trading Economics" referrerPolicy="no-referrer" width="18" height="18" loading="lazy" style="object-fit:contain"/></a></div></div></div><div class="flex gap-3 relative !h-0 !overflow-hidden !p-0 !m-0" style="content-visibility:hidden" inert="" aria-hidden="true"><div class="flex flex-col items-center shrink-0"><div class="w-px h-[7px] bg-pk-border"></div><div class="w-3 h-3 rounded-full border-2 border-pk-gray-300 bg-pk-surface shrink-0"></div><div class="w-px flex-1 bg-pk-border"></div></div><div class="flex-1 pb-8"><span class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary">Aug 28 2026</span><p class="text-body-base font-semibold text-pk-content-primary leading-5 mt-1">US Federal Reserve holds interest rates steady amid ongoing inflation and economic uncertainty</p><p class="flex items-center gap-1 text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary mt-0.5"><span>No change<!-- --> <!-- -->drops to<!-- --> <!-- -->41<!-- -->%</span><span class="inline-flex items-center gap-0.5 font-semibold text-pk-content-accent-red"><svg width="8" height="8" viewBox="0 0 12 12" fill="none" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><path d="M6.51952 9.5C6.28858 9.9 5.71123 9.9 5.48029 9.5L1.84298 3.2C1.61204 2.8 1.90072 2.3 2.3626 2.3L9.63721 2.3C10.0991 2.3 10.3878 2.8 10.1568 3.2L6.51952 9.5Z" fill="currentColor"></path></svg>9<!-- -->%</span></p><p class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-secondary leading-5 mt-1">The Fed maintained the federal funds rate at 3.5%-3.75% in late August, reaffirming its commitment to price stability despite elevated inflation and geopolitical risks. The decision was supported by a 9-3 vote, with dissenters favoring a hike, reflecting persistent inflation concerns.</p><div class="flex items-center gap-1.5 mt-3"><a href="https://www.ahmedabadmirror.com/us-federal-reserve-holds-int-rates-steady/81918754.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" class="flex items-center justify-center rounded-md overflow-hidden bg-white" style="width:28px;height:28px;border:1px solid var(--color-pk-border)" data-state="closed" data-slot="tooltip-trigger"><img src="https://www.google.com/s2/favicons?domain=www.ahmedabadmirror.com&amp;sz=64" alt="Ahmedabad Mirror" referrerPolicy="no-referrer" width="18" height="18" loading="lazy" style="object-fit:contain"/></a></div></div></div><div class="flex gap-3 relative !h-0 !overflow-hidden !p-0 !m-0" style="content-visibility:hidden" inert="" aria-hidden="true"><div class="flex flex-col items-center shrink-0"><div class="w-px h-[7px] bg-pk-border"></div><div class="w-3 h-3 rounded-full border-2 border-pk-gray-300 bg-pk-surface shrink-0"></div><div class="w-px flex-1 bg-pk-border"></div></div><div class="flex-1 pb-8"><span class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary">Aug 28 2026</span><p class="text-body-base font-semibold text-pk-content-primary leading-5 mt-1">Federal Reserve holds interest rates steady amid political and economic pressures</p><p class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-secondary leading-5 mt-1">The Fed maintained the federal funds rate at 3.50%-3.75% in August, despite ongoing inflation above target and political pressure for cuts. The decision underscored the Fed&#x27;s commitment to price stability and contributed to market expectations of a 25 bps increase in September.</p><div class="flex items-center gap-1.5 mt-3"><a href="https://www.ahmedabadmirror.com/us-federal-reserve-holds-int-rates-steady/81918754.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" class="flex items-center justify-center rounded-md overflow-hidden bg-white" style="width:28px;height:28px;border:1px solid var(--color-pk-border)" data-state="closed" data-slot="tooltip-trigger"><img src="https://www.google.com/s2/favicons?domain=www.ahmedabadmirror.com&amp;sz=64" alt="Ahmedabad Mirror" referrerPolicy="no-referrer" width="18" height="18" loading="lazy" style="object-fit:contain"/></a></div></div></div><div class="flex gap-3 relative !h-0 !overflow-hidden !p-0 !m-0" style="content-visibility:hidden" inert="" aria-hidden="true"><div class="flex flex-col items-center shrink-0"><div class="w-px h-[7px] bg-pk-border"></div><div class="w-3 h-3 rounded-full border-2 border-pk-gray-300 bg-pk-surface shrink-0"></div><div class="w-px flex-1 bg-pk-border"></div></div><div class="flex-1 pb-8"><span class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary">Aug 28 2026</span><p class="text-body-base font-semibold text-pk-content-primary leading-5 mt-1">Fed Chair Kevin Warsh delivers hawkish keynote at Jackson Hole</p><p class="flex items-center gap-1 text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary mt-0.5"><span>25 bps increase<!-- --> <!-- -->surges to<!-- --> <!-- -->60<!-- -->%</span><span class="inline-flex items-center gap-0.5 font-semibold text-pk-content-accent-green"><svg width="8" height="8" viewBox="0 0 12 12" fill="none" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><path d="M6.51952 2.5C6.28858 2.1 5.71123 2.1 5.48029 2.5L1.84298 8.8C1.61204 9.2 1.90072 9.7 2.3626 9.7L9.63721 9.7C10.0991 9.7 10.3878 9.2 10.1568 8.8L6.51952 2.5Z" fill="currentColor"></path></svg>25<!-- -->%</span></p><p class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-secondary leading-5 mt-1">In his first Jackson Hole speech as Fed Chair, Kevin Warsh emphasized the Fed&#x27;s commitment to returning inflation to 2%, signaling that rate hikes remain on the table. His hawkish tone increased market expectations for a September rate hike above 50%.</p><div class="flex items-center gap-1.5 mt-3"><a href="https://www.regardsofwallstreet.com/news/jackson-hole-2026-dates-schedule-warsh-first-speech" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" class="flex items-center justify-center rounded-md overflow-hidden bg-white" style="width:28px;height:28px;border:1px solid var(--color-pk-border)" data-state="closed" data-slot="tooltip-trigger"><img src="https://www.google.com/s2/favicons?domain=www.regardsofwallstreet.com&amp;sz=64" alt="Regards of Wallstreet" referrerPolicy="no-referrer" width="18" height="18" loading="lazy" style="object-fit:contain"/></a></div></div></div><div class="flex gap-3 relative !h-0 !overflow-hidden !p-0 !m-0" style="content-visibility:hidden" inert="" aria-hidden="true"><div class="flex flex-col items-center shrink-0"><div class="w-px h-[7px] bg-pk-border"></div><div class="w-3 h-3 rounded-full border-2 border-pk-gray-300 bg-pk-surface shrink-0"></div><div class="w-px flex-1 bg-pk-border"></div></div><div class="flex-1 pb-8"><span class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary">Aug 28 2026</span><p class="text-body-base font-semibold text-pk-content-primary leading-5 mt-1">New Fed Chair Kevin Warsh signals hawkish stance in first Jackson Hole speech</p><p class="flex items-center gap-1 text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary mt-0.5"><span>25 bps increase<!-- --> <!-- -->jumps to<!-- --> <!-- -->45<!-- -->%</span><span class="inline-flex items-center gap-0.5 font-semibold text-pk-content-accent-green"><svg width="8" height="8" viewBox="0 0 12 12" fill="none" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><path d="M6.51952 2.5C6.28858 2.1 5.71123 2.1 5.48029 2.5L1.84298 8.8C1.61204 9.2 1.90072 9.7 2.3626 9.7L9.63721 9.7C10.0991 9.7 10.3878 9.2 10.1568 8.8L6.51952 2.5Z" fill="currentColor"></path></svg>8<!-- -->%</span></p><p class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-secondary leading-5 mt-1">At the 2026 Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium, Fed Chair Kevin Warsh gave his first keynote speech, signaling a firm stance against inflation and supporting the possibility of future rate hikes. This speech increased market expectations for a September rate increase.</p><div class="flex items-center gap-1.5 mt-3"><a href="https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/warsh20260828a.htm" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" class="flex items-center justify-center rounded-md overflow-hidden bg-white" style="width:28px;height:28px;border:1px solid var(--color-pk-border)" data-state="closed" data-slot="tooltip-trigger"><img src="https://www.google.com/s2/favicons?domain=www.federalreserve.gov&amp;sz=64" alt="Federal Reserve" referrerPolicy="no-referrer" width="18" height="18" loading="lazy" style="object-fit:contain"/></a><a href="https://www.lapost.com/tag/monetary-policy" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" class="flex items-center justify-center rounded-md overflow-hidden bg-white" style="width:28px;height:28px;border:1px solid var(--color-pk-border)" data-state="closed" data-slot="tooltip-trigger"><img src="https://www.google.com/s2/favicons?domain=www.lapost.com&amp;sz=64" alt="LA Post" referrerPolicy="no-referrer" width="18" height="18" loading="lazy" style="object-fit:contain"/></a></div></div></div><div class="flex gap-3 relative !h-0 !overflow-hidden !p-0 !m-0" style="content-visibility:hidden" inert="" aria-hidden="true"><div class="flex flex-col items-center shrink-0"><div class="w-px h-[7px] bg-pk-border"></div><div class="w-3 h-3 rounded-full border-2 border-pk-gray-300 bg-pk-surface shrink-0"></div><div class="w-px flex-1 bg-pk-border"></div></div><div class="flex-1 pb-8"><span class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary">Aug 27 2026</span><p class="text-body-base font-semibold text-pk-content-primary leading-5 mt-1">Federal Reserve hosts Jackson Hole Economic Symposium focusing on financial innovation and policy</p><p class="flex items-center gap-1 text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary mt-0.5"><span>No change<!-- --> <!-- -->rises to<!-- --> <!-- -->60<!-- -->%</span><span class="inline-flex items-center gap-0.5 font-semibold text-pk-content-accent-green"><svg width="8" height="8" viewBox="0 0 12 12" fill="none" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><path d="M6.51952 2.5C6.28858 2.1 5.71123 2.1 5.48029 2.5L1.84298 8.8C1.61204 9.2 1.90072 9.7 2.3626 9.7L9.63721 9.7C10.0991 9.7 10.3878 9.2 10.1568 8.8L6.51952 2.5Z" fill="currentColor"></path></svg>1<!-- -->%</span></p><p class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-secondary leading-5 mt-1">From August 27 to 29, 2026, the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City hosted the Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium, emphasizing financial innovation and its implications for payments and monetary policy. This event influenced market sentiment by highlighting ongoing policy considerations amid inflation and economic uncertainty ahead of the September FOMC meeting.</p><div class="flex items-center gap-1.5 mt-3"><a href="https://www.financecalendar.com/event/jackson-hole-economic-symposium-2026/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" class="flex items-center justify-center rounded-md overflow-hidden bg-white" style="width:28px;height:28px;border:1px solid var(--color-pk-border)" data-state="closed" data-slot="tooltip-trigger"><img src="https://www.google.com/s2/favicons?domain=www.financecalendar.com&amp;sz=64" alt="FinanceCalendar" referrerPolicy="no-referrer" width="18" height="18" loading="lazy" style="object-fit:contain"/></a></div></div></div><div class="flex gap-3 relative !h-0 !overflow-hidden !p-0 !m-0" style="content-visibility:hidden" inert="" aria-hidden="true"><div class="flex flex-col items-center shrink-0"><div class="w-px h-[7px] bg-pk-border"></div><div class="w-3 h-3 rounded-full border-2 border-pk-gray-300 bg-pk-surface shrink-0"></div><div class="w-px flex-1 bg-pk-border"></div></div><div class="flex-1 pb-8"><span class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary">Aug 27 2026</span><p class="text-body-base font-semibold text-pk-content-primary leading-5 mt-1">Jackson Hole Economic Symposium focuses on financial innovation and policy implications</p><p class="flex items-center gap-1 text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary mt-0.5"><span>25 bps increase<!-- --> <!-- -->drops to<!-- --> <!-- -->27<!-- -->%</span><span class="inline-flex items-center gap-0.5 font-semibold text-pk-content-accent-red"><svg width="8" height="8" viewBox="0 0 12 12" fill="none" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><path d="M6.51952 9.5C6.28858 9.9 5.71123 9.9 5.48029 9.5L1.84298 3.2C1.61204 2.8 1.90072 2.3 2.3626 2.3L9.63721 2.3C10.0991 2.3 10.3878 2.8 10.1568 3.2L6.51952 9.5Z" fill="currentColor"></path></svg>8<!-- -->%</span></p><p class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-secondary leading-5 mt-1">The annual Jackson Hole Symposium brought together central bankers and policymakers to discuss financial innovation and its implications for monetary policy, influencing market expectations ahead of the September FOMC meeting.</p><div class="flex items-center gap-1.5 mt-3"><a href="https://www.financecalendar.com/event/jackson-hole-economic-symposium-2026/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" class="flex items-center justify-center rounded-md overflow-hidden bg-white" style="width:28px;height:28px;border:1px solid var(--color-pk-border)" data-state="closed" data-slot="tooltip-trigger"><img src="https://www.google.com/s2/favicons?domain=www.financecalendar.com&amp;sz=64" alt="Finance Calendar" referrerPolicy="no-referrer" width="18" height="18" loading="lazy" style="object-fit:contain"/></a></div></div></div><div class="flex gap-3 relative !h-0 !overflow-hidden !p-0 !m-0" style="content-visibility:hidden" inert="" aria-hidden="true"><div class="flex flex-col items-center shrink-0"><div class="w-px h-[7px] bg-pk-border"></div><div class="w-3 h-3 rounded-full border-2 border-pk-gray-300 bg-pk-surface shrink-0"></div><div class="w-px flex-1 bg-pk-border"></div></div><div class="flex-1 pb-8"><span class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary">Aug 27 2026</span><p class="text-body-base font-semibold text-pk-content-primary leading-5 mt-1">New Fed Chair Kevin Warsh Faces Pressure to Clarify Inflation and Rate Views</p><p class="flex items-center gap-1 text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary mt-0.5"><span>25 bps increase<!-- --> <!-- -->surges to<!-- --> <!-- -->52<!-- -->%</span><span class="inline-flex items-center gap-0.5 font-semibold text-pk-content-accent-green"><svg width="8" height="8" viewBox="0 0 12 12" fill="none" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><path d="M6.51952 2.5C6.28858 2.1 5.71123 2.1 5.48029 2.5L1.84298 8.8C1.61204 9.2 1.90072 9.7 2.3626 9.7L9.63721 9.7C10.0991 9.7 10.3878 9.2 10.1568 8.8L6.51952 2.5Z" fill="currentColor"></path></svg>21<!-- -->%</span></p><p class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-secondary leading-5 mt-1">On August 27, 2026, media coverage highlighted Fed Chair Kevin Warsh&#x27;s cautious communication style amid ongoing inflation concerns and political pressures. This uncertainty contributed to market volatility and influenced the rising odds of a 25 bps rate increase at the September meeting.</p><div class="flex items-center gap-1.5 mt-3"><a href="https://www.lapost.com/tag/monetary-policy" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" class="flex items-center justify-center rounded-md overflow-hidden bg-white" style="width:28px;height:28px;border:1px solid var(--color-pk-border)" data-state="closed" data-slot="tooltip-trigger"><img src="https://www.google.com/s2/favicons?domain=www.lapost.com&amp;sz=64" alt="LA Post" referrerPolicy="no-referrer" width="18" height="18" loading="lazy" style="object-fit:contain"/></a></div></div></div><div class="flex gap-3 relative !h-0 !overflow-hidden !p-0 !m-0" style="content-visibility:hidden" inert="" aria-hidden="true"><div class="flex flex-col items-center shrink-0"><div class="w-px h-[7px] bg-pk-border"></div><div class="w-3 h-3 rounded-full border-2 border-pk-gray-300 bg-pk-surface shrink-0"></div><div class="w-px flex-1 bg-pk-border"></div></div><div class="flex-1 pb-8"><span class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary">Aug 27 2026</span><p class="text-body-base font-semibold text-pk-content-primary leading-5 mt-1">Jackson Hole Economic Symposium 2026 sets stage for September Fed decision</p><p class="flex items-center gap-1 text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary mt-0.5"><span>25 bps increase<!-- --> <!-- -->jumps to<!-- --> <!-- -->55<!-- -->%</span><span class="inline-flex items-center gap-0.5 font-semibold text-pk-content-accent-green"><svg width="8" height="8" viewBox="0 0 12 12" fill="none" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><path d="M6.51952 2.5C6.28858 2.1 5.71123 2.1 5.48029 2.5L1.84298 8.8C1.61204 9.2 1.90072 9.7 2.3626 9.7L9.63721 9.7C10.0991 9.7 10.3878 9.2 10.1568 8.8L6.51952 2.5Z" fill="currentColor"></path></svg>11<!-- -->%</span></p><p class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-secondary leading-5 mt-1">The Jackson Hole Economic Symposium held August 27-29, 2026, provided a platform for Federal Reserve officials and economists to discuss inflation risks and monetary policy, influencing market expectations for a possible rate hike at the September FOMC meeting.</p><div class="flex items-center gap-1.5 mt-3"><a href="https://www.financecalendar.com/event/jackson-hole-economic-symposium-2026/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" class="flex items-center justify-center rounded-md overflow-hidden bg-white" style="width:28px;height:28px;border:1px solid var(--color-pk-border)" data-state="closed" data-slot="tooltip-trigger"><img src="https://www.google.com/s2/favicons?domain=www.financecalendar.com&amp;sz=64" alt="Finance Calendar" referrerPolicy="no-referrer" width="18" height="18" loading="lazy" style="object-fit:contain"/></a></div></div></div><div class="flex gap-3 relative !h-0 !overflow-hidden !p-0 !m-0" style="content-visibility:hidden" inert="" aria-hidden="true"><div class="flex flex-col items-center shrink-0"><div class="w-px h-[7px] bg-pk-border"></div><div class="w-3 h-3 rounded-full border-2 border-pk-gray-300 bg-pk-surface shrink-0"></div><div class="w-px flex-1 bg-pk-border"></div></div><div class="flex-1 pb-8"><span class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary">Aug 27 2026</span><p class="text-body-base font-semibold text-pk-content-primary leading-5 mt-1">New Fed Chair Kevin Warsh adopts cautious communication style amid policy crossroads</p><p class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-secondary leading-5 mt-1">Kevin Warsh, who took over as Federal Reserve Chair in May 2026, has changed the Fed&#x27;s communication approach by providing less explicit guidance on the economy and inflation, increasing market uncertainty about future rate moves ahead of the September meeting.</p><div class="flex items-center gap-1.5 mt-3"><a href="https://www.lapost.com/tag/monetary-policy" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" class="flex items-center justify-center rounded-md overflow-hidden bg-white" style="width:28px;height:28px;border:1px solid var(--color-pk-border)" data-state="closed" data-slot="tooltip-trigger"><img src="https://www.google.com/s2/favicons?domain=www.lapost.com&amp;sz=64" alt="LA Post" referrerPolicy="no-referrer" width="18" height="18" loading="lazy" style="object-fit:contain"/></a></div></div></div><div class="flex gap-3 relative !h-0 !overflow-hidden !p-0 !m-0" style="content-visibility:hidden" inert="" aria-hidden="true"><div class="flex flex-col items-center shrink-0"><div class="w-px h-[7px] bg-pk-border"></div><div class="w-3 h-3 rounded-full border-2 border-pk-gray-300 bg-pk-surface shrink-0"></div><div class="w-px flex-1 bg-pk-border"></div></div><div class="flex-1 pb-8"><span class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary">Aug 27 2026</span><p class="text-body-base font-semibold text-pk-content-primary leading-5 mt-1">Jackson Hole Economic Symposium focuses on financial innovation and policy implications</p><p class="flex items-center gap-1 text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary mt-0.5"><span>No change<!-- --> <!-- -->jumps to<!-- --> <!-- -->70<!-- -->%</span><span class="inline-flex items-center gap-0.5 font-semibold text-pk-content-accent-green"><svg width="8" height="8" viewBox="0 0 12 12" fill="none" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><path d="M6.51952 2.5C6.28858 2.1 5.71123 2.1 5.48029 2.5L1.84298 8.8C1.61204 9.2 1.90072 9.7 2.3626 9.7L9.63721 9.7C10.0991 9.7 10.3878 9.2 10.1568 8.8L6.51952 2.5Z" fill="currentColor"></path></svg>11<!-- -->%</span></p><p class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-secondary leading-5 mt-1">The Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City hosted the 2026 Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium, where discussions on financial innovation and monetary policy implications took place. While not directly causing immediate price moves, the event shaped market expectations about the Fed&#x27;s cautious approach and potential future rate decisions.</p><div class="flex items-center gap-1.5 mt-3"><a href="https://www.financecalendar.com/event/jackson-hole-economic-symposium-2026/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" class="flex items-center justify-center rounded-md overflow-hidden bg-white" style="width:28px;height:28px;border:1px solid var(--color-pk-border)" data-state="closed" data-slot="tooltip-trigger"><img src="https://www.google.com/s2/favicons?domain=www.financecalendar.com&amp;sz=64" alt="FinanceCalendar" referrerPolicy="no-referrer" width="18" height="18" loading="lazy" style="object-fit:contain"/></a></div></div></div><div class="flex gap-3 relative !h-0 !overflow-hidden !p-0 !m-0" style="content-visibility:hidden" inert="" aria-hidden="true"><div class="flex flex-col items-center shrink-0"><div class="w-px h-[7px] bg-pk-border"></div><div class="w-3 h-3 rounded-full border-2 border-pk-gray-300 bg-pk-surface shrink-0"></div><div class="w-px flex-1 bg-pk-border"></div></div><div class="flex-1 pb-8"><span class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary">Aug 27 2026</span><p class="text-body-base font-semibold text-pk-content-primary leading-5 mt-1">Federal Reserve to host Jackson Hole Economic Symposium focusing on financial innovation</p><p class="flex items-center gap-1 text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary mt-0.5"><span>No change<!-- --> <!-- -->surges to<!-- --> <!-- -->69<!-- -->%</span><span class="inline-flex items-center gap-0.5 font-semibold text-pk-content-accent-green"><svg width="8" height="8" viewBox="0 0 12 12" fill="none" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><path d="M6.51952 2.5C6.28858 2.1 5.71123 2.1 5.48029 2.5L1.84298 8.8C1.61204 9.2 1.90072 9.7 2.3626 9.7L9.63721 9.7C10.0991 9.7 10.3878 9.2 10.1568 8.8L6.51952 2.5Z" fill="currentColor"></path></svg>16<!-- -->%</span></p><p class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-secondary leading-5 mt-1">The upcoming Jackson Hole Symposium from August 27-29 is a key event where Fed officials discuss monetary policy and economic outlook, influencing market expectations ahead of the September FOMC meeting. Anticipation of insights from this event contributed to price movements favoring no change or a modest rate increase.</p><div class="flex items-center gap-1.5 mt-3"><a href="https://www.financecalendar.com/event/jackson-hole-economic-symposium-2026/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" class="flex items-center justify-center rounded-md overflow-hidden bg-white" style="width:28px;height:28px;border:1px solid var(--color-pk-border)" data-state="closed" data-slot="tooltip-trigger"><img src="https://www.google.com/s2/favicons?domain=www.financecalendar.com&amp;sz=64" alt="Finance Calendar" referrerPolicy="no-referrer" width="18" height="18" loading="lazy" style="object-fit:contain"/></a></div></div></div><div class="flex gap-3 relative !h-0 !overflow-hidden !p-0 !m-0" style="content-visibility:hidden" inert="" aria-hidden="true"><div class="flex flex-col items-center shrink-0"><div class="w-px h-[7px] bg-pk-border"></div><div class="w-3 h-3 rounded-full border-2 border-pk-gray-300 bg-pk-surface shrink-0"></div><div class="w-px flex-1 bg-pk-border"></div></div><div class="flex-1 pb-8"><span class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary">Aug 26 2026</span><p class="text-body-base font-semibold text-pk-content-primary leading-5 mt-1">Second-quarter GDP revision and PCE inflation report ahead of September FOMC</p><p class="flex items-center gap-1 text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary mt-0.5"><span>25 bps increase<!-- --> <!-- -->dips to<!-- --> <!-- -->47<!-- -->%</span><span class="inline-flex items-center gap-0.5 font-semibold text-pk-content-accent-red"><svg width="8" height="8" viewBox="0 0 12 12" fill="none" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><path d="M6.51952 9.5C6.28858 9.9 5.71123 9.9 5.48029 9.5L1.84298 3.2C1.61204 2.8 1.90072 2.3 2.3626 2.3L9.63721 2.3C10.0991 2.3 10.3878 2.8 10.1568 3.2L6.51952 9.5Z" fill="currentColor"></path></svg>2<!-- -->%</span></p><p class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-secondary leading-5 mt-1">The upcoming revised GDP estimate and PCE inflation report on August 26 are key data points that markets are watching closely to assess economic momentum and inflation trends ahead of the September FOMC meeting, influencing rate hike expectations.</p><div class="flex items-center gap-1.5 mt-3"><a href="https://gomarkets.com/en-au/articles/us-market-drivers-august-2026" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" class="flex items-center justify-center rounded-md overflow-hidden bg-white" style="width:28px;height:28px;border:1px solid var(--color-pk-border)" data-state="closed" data-slot="tooltip-trigger"><img src="https://www.google.com/s2/favicons?domain=gomarkets.com&amp;sz=64" alt="GO Markets" referrerPolicy="no-referrer" width="18" height="18" loading="lazy" style="object-fit:contain"/></a></div></div></div><div class="flex gap-3 relative !h-0 !overflow-hidden !p-0 !m-0" style="content-visibility:hidden" inert="" aria-hidden="true"><div class="flex flex-col items-center shrink-0"><div class="w-px h-[7px] bg-pk-border"></div><div class="w-3 h-3 rounded-full border-2 border-pk-gray-300 bg-pk-surface shrink-0"></div><div class="w-px flex-1 bg-pk-border"></div></div><div class="flex-1 pb-8"><span class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary">Aug 26 2026</span><p class="text-body-base font-semibold text-pk-content-primary leading-5 mt-1">Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index Holds Steady in July</p><p class="flex items-center gap-1 text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary mt-0.5"><span>25 bps increase<!-- --> <!-- -->surges to<!-- --> <!-- -->53<!-- -->%</span><span class="inline-flex items-center gap-0.5 font-semibold text-pk-content-accent-green"><svg width="8" height="8" viewBox="0 0 12 12" fill="none" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><path d="M6.51952 2.5C6.28858 2.1 5.71123 2.1 5.48029 2.5L1.84298 8.8C1.61204 9.2 1.90072 9.7 2.3626 9.7L9.63721 9.7C10.0991 9.7 10.3878 9.2 10.1568 8.8L6.51952 2.5Z" fill="currentColor"></path></svg>25<!-- -->%</span></p><p class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-secondary leading-5 mt-1">The PCE price index, the Fed&#x27;s preferred inflation measure, increased 0.2% in July 2026, maintaining an annual rate of 3.7%, unchanged from June. This steady inflation reading contributed to market expectations of a likely 25 bps rate hike in September to address persistent inflation pressures.</p><div class="flex items-center gap-1.5 mt-3"><a href="https://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2026/aug/26/inflation-index-prized-fed-holds-steady-july/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" class="flex items-center justify-center rounded-md overflow-hidden bg-white" style="width:28px;height:28px;border:1px solid var(--color-pk-border)" data-state="closed" data-slot="tooltip-trigger"><img src="https://www.google.com/s2/favicons?domain=www.washingtontimes.com&amp;sz=64" alt="The Washington Times" referrerPolicy="no-referrer" width="18" height="18" loading="lazy" style="object-fit:contain"/></a></div></div></div><div class="flex gap-3 relative !h-0 !overflow-hidden !p-0 !m-0" style="content-visibility:hidden" inert="" aria-hidden="true"><div class="flex flex-col items-center shrink-0"><div class="w-px h-[7px] bg-pk-border"></div><div class="w-3 h-3 rounded-full border-2 border-pk-gray-300 bg-pk-surface shrink-0"></div><div class="w-px flex-1 bg-pk-border"></div></div><div class="flex-1 pb-8"><span class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary">Aug 26 2026</span><p class="text-body-base font-semibold text-pk-content-primary leading-5 mt-1">Atlanta Fed GDPNow model shows stronger-than-expected Q3 growth at 4.6%</p><p class="flex items-center gap-1 text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary mt-0.5"><span>25 bps increase<!-- --> <!-- -->jumps to<!-- --> <!-- -->33<!-- -->%</span><span class="inline-flex items-center gap-0.5 font-semibold text-pk-content-accent-green"><svg width="8" height="8" viewBox="0 0 12 12" fill="none" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><path d="M6.51952 2.5C6.28858 2.1 5.71123 2.1 5.48029 2.5L1.84298 8.8C1.61204 9.2 1.90072 9.7 2.3626 9.7L9.63721 9.7C10.0991 9.7 10.3878 9.2 10.1568 8.8L6.51952 2.5Z" fill="currentColor"></path></svg>5<!-- -->%</span></p><p class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-secondary leading-5 mt-1">The Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta&#x27;s GDPNow model revised its Q3 GDP growth estimate upward to 4.6%, signaling robust economic momentum. This stronger growth outlook reduced expectations for imminent rate cuts and supported market pricing for a possible 25 bps hike in September.</p><div class="flex items-center gap-1.5 mt-3"><a href="https://finobird.com/calendar/economic/us-federal-reserve-bank-of-atlanta-gdpnow-2026-08-26/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" class="flex items-center justify-center rounded-md overflow-hidden bg-white" style="width:28px;height:28px;border:1px solid var(--color-pk-border)" data-state="closed" data-slot="tooltip-trigger"><img src="https://www.google.com/s2/favicons?domain=finobird.com&amp;sz=64" alt="Finobird" referrerPolicy="no-referrer" width="18" height="18" loading="lazy" style="object-fit:contain"/></a></div></div></div><div class="flex gap-3 relative !h-0 !overflow-hidden !p-0 !m-0" style="content-visibility:hidden" inert="" aria-hidden="true"><div class="flex flex-col items-center shrink-0"><div class="w-px h-[7px] bg-pk-border"></div><div class="w-3 h-3 rounded-full border-2 border-pk-gray-300 bg-pk-surface shrink-0"></div><div class="w-px flex-1 bg-pk-border"></div></div><div class="flex-1 pb-8"><span class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary">Aug 26 2026</span><p class="text-body-base font-semibold text-pk-content-primary leading-5 mt-1">July PCE inflation data released amid mixed economic signals</p><p class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-secondary leading-5 mt-1">The release of July Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) data on August 26 showed inflation remaining elevated but with some signs of moderation, contributing to market uncertainty about the Fed&#x27;s next move and supporting a balanced view between a rate hold and a 25 bps increase.</p><div class="flex items-center gap-1.5 mt-3"><a href="https://www.regardsofwallstreet.com/news/august-26-2026-hour-by-hour-pce-gdp-nvidia" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" class="flex items-center justify-center rounded-md overflow-hidden bg-white" style="width:28px;height:28px;border:1px solid var(--color-pk-border)" data-state="closed" data-slot="tooltip-trigger"><img src="https://www.google.com/s2/favicons?domain=www.regardsofwallstreet.com&amp;sz=64" alt="Regards of Wallstreet" referrerPolicy="no-referrer" width="18" height="18" loading="lazy" style="object-fit:contain"/></a></div></div></div><div class="flex gap-3 relative !h-0 !overflow-hidden !p-0 !m-0" style="content-visibility:hidden" inert="" aria-hidden="true"><div class="flex flex-col items-center shrink-0"><div class="w-px h-[7px] bg-pk-border"></div><div class="w-3 h-3 rounded-full border-2 border-pk-gray-300 bg-pk-surface shrink-0"></div><div class="w-px flex-1 bg-pk-border"></div></div><div class="flex-1 pb-8"><span class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary">Aug 24 2026</span><p class="text-body-base font-semibold text-pk-content-primary leading-5 mt-1">Federal Reserve maintains rates amid persistent inflation and economic growth</p><p class="flex items-center gap-1 text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary mt-0.5"><span>No change<!-- --> <!-- -->jumps to<!-- --> <!-- -->68<!-- -->%</span><span class="inline-flex items-center gap-0.5 font-semibold text-pk-content-accent-green"><svg width="8" height="8" viewBox="0 0 12 12" fill="none" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><path d="M6.51952 2.5C6.28858 2.1 5.71123 2.1 5.48029 2.5L1.84298 8.8C1.61204 9.2 1.90072 9.7 2.3626 9.7L9.63721 9.7C10.0991 9.7 10.3878 9.2 10.1568 8.8L6.51952 2.5Z" fill="currentColor"></path></svg>5<!-- -->%</span></p><p class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-secondary leading-5 mt-1">On August 24, 2026, the Fed reiterated its stance by keeping rates unchanged at 3.50%-3.75%, citing solid economic activity and elevated inflation partly due to supply shocks. The statement reaffirmed commitment to price stability, with three dissenters favoring a 25 bps hike, sustaining market expectations for a September increase.</p><div class="flex items-center gap-1.5 mt-3"><a href="https://www.ahmedabadmirror.com/us-federal-reserve-holds-int-rates-steady/81918754.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" class="flex items-center justify-center rounded-md overflow-hidden bg-white" style="width:28px;height:28px;border:1px solid var(--color-pk-border)" data-state="closed" data-slot="tooltip-trigger"><img src="https://www.google.com/s2/favicons?domain=www.ahmedabadmirror.com&amp;sz=64" alt="Ahmedabad Mirror" referrerPolicy="no-referrer" width="18" height="18" loading="lazy" style="object-fit:contain"/></a></div></div></div><div class="flex gap-3 relative !h-0 !overflow-hidden !p-0 !m-0" style="content-visibility:hidden" inert="" aria-hidden="true"><div class="flex flex-col items-center shrink-0"><div class="w-px h-[7px] bg-pk-border"></div><div class="w-3 h-3 rounded-full border-2 border-pk-gray-300 bg-pk-surface shrink-0"></div><div class="w-px flex-1 bg-pk-border"></div></div><div class="flex-1 pb-8"><span class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary">Aug 24 2026</span><p class="text-body-base font-semibold text-pk-content-primary leading-5 mt-1">Federal Reserve Holds Interest Rates Steady in August 2026 Despite Inflation and Global Uncertainty</p><p class="flex items-center gap-1 text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary mt-0.5"><span>No change<!-- --> <!-- -->drops to<!-- --> <!-- -->56<!-- -->%</span><span class="inline-flex items-center gap-0.5 font-semibold text-pk-content-accent-red"><svg width="8" height="8" viewBox="0 0 12 12" fill="none" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><path d="M6.51952 9.5C6.28858 9.9 5.71123 9.9 5.48029 9.5L1.84298 3.2C1.61204 2.8 1.90072 2.3 2.3626 2.3L9.63721 2.3C10.0991 2.3 10.3878 2.8 10.1568 3.2L6.51952 9.5Z" fill="currentColor"></path></svg>6<!-- -->%</span></p><p class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-secondary leading-5 mt-1">On August 24, the Fed kept rates unchanged at 3.5%-3.75%, citing solid economic growth amid elevated inflation and geopolitical risks. Three policymakers dissented, favoring a 25 bps hike, underscoring ongoing inflation concerns.</p><div class="flex items-center gap-1.5 mt-3"><a href="https://www.ahmedabadmirror.com/us-federal-reserve-holds-int-rates-steady/81918754.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" class="flex items-center justify-center rounded-md overflow-hidden bg-white" style="width:28px;height:28px;border:1px solid var(--color-pk-border)" data-state="closed" data-slot="tooltip-trigger"><img src="https://www.google.com/s2/favicons?domain=www.ahmedabadmirror.com&amp;sz=64" alt="Ahmedabad Mirror" referrerPolicy="no-referrer" width="18" height="18" loading="lazy" style="object-fit:contain"/></a></div></div></div><div class="flex gap-3 relative !h-0 !overflow-hidden !p-0 !m-0" style="content-visibility:hidden" inert="" aria-hidden="true"><div class="flex flex-col items-center shrink-0"><div class="w-px h-[7px] bg-pk-border"></div><div class="w-3 h-3 rounded-full border-2 border-pk-gray-300 bg-pk-surface shrink-0"></div><div class="w-px flex-1 bg-pk-border"></div></div><div class="flex-1 pb-8"><span class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary">Aug 24 2026</span><p class="text-body-base font-semibold text-pk-content-primary leading-5 mt-1">Federal Reserve holds rates steady amid solid economic growth and persistent inflation</p><p class="flex items-center gap-1 text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary mt-0.5"><span>No change<!-- --> <!-- -->jumps to<!-- --> <!-- -->68<!-- -->%</span><span class="inline-flex items-center gap-0.5 font-semibold text-pk-content-accent-green"><svg width="8" height="8" viewBox="0 0 12 12" fill="none" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><path d="M6.51952 2.5C6.28858 2.1 5.71123 2.1 5.48029 2.5L1.84298 8.8C1.61204 9.2 1.90072 9.7 2.3626 9.7L9.63721 9.7C10.0991 9.7 10.3878 9.2 10.1568 8.8L6.51952 2.5Z" fill="currentColor"></path></svg>5<!-- -->%</span></p><p class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-secondary leading-5 mt-1">On August 24, 2026, the Fed reiterated its commitment to maintaining rates at 3.50%-3.75% due to ongoing inflation pressures and a solid economy, with three dissenters again favoring a hike. This reinforced market expectations for a potential September increase.</p><div class="flex items-center gap-1.5 mt-3"><a href="https://www.ahmedabadmirror.com/us-federal-reserve-holds-int-rates-steady/81918754.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" class="flex items-center justify-center rounded-md overflow-hidden bg-white" style="width:28px;height:28px;border:1px solid var(--color-pk-border)" data-state="closed" data-slot="tooltip-trigger"><img src="https://www.google.com/s2/favicons?domain=www.ahmedabadmirror.com&amp;sz=64" alt="Ahmedabad Mirror" referrerPolicy="no-referrer" width="18" height="18" loading="lazy" style="object-fit:contain"/></a></div></div></div><div class="flex gap-3 relative !h-0 !overflow-hidden !p-0 !m-0" style="content-visibility:hidden" inert="" aria-hidden="true"><div class="flex flex-col items-center shrink-0"><div class="w-px h-[7px] bg-pk-border"></div><div class="w-3 h-3 rounded-full border-2 border-pk-gray-300 bg-pk-surface shrink-0"></div><div class="w-px flex-1 bg-pk-border"></div></div><div class="flex-1 pb-8"><span class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary">Aug 20 2026</span><p class="text-body-base font-semibold text-pk-content-primary leading-5 mt-1">Rising inflation and geopolitical risks keep markets wary of Fed rate cuts</p><p class="flex items-center gap-1 text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary mt-0.5"><span>25 bps increase<!-- --> <!-- -->surges to<!-- --> <!-- -->56<!-- -->%</span><span class="inline-flex items-center gap-0.5 font-semibold text-pk-content-accent-green"><svg width="8" height="8" viewBox="0 0 12 12" fill="none" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><path d="M6.51952 2.5C6.28858 2.1 5.71123 2.1 5.48029 2.5L1.84298 8.8C1.61204 9.2 1.90072 9.7 2.3626 9.7L9.63721 9.7C10.0991 9.7 10.3878 9.2 10.1568 8.8L6.51952 2.5Z" fill="currentColor"></path></svg>20<!-- -->%</span></p><p class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-secondary leading-5 mt-1">In August 2026, ongoing inflation pressures driven by Middle East conflict and elevated energy prices, combined with hawkish Fed signals, led markets to reduce expectations for rate cuts and price in a higher probability of a 25 basis points increase at the September meeting.</p><div class="flex items-center gap-1.5 mt-3"><a href="https://www.idnfinancials.com/news/62523/economists-see-the-fed-holding-rates-until-september-2026" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" class="flex items-center justify-center rounded-md overflow-hidden bg-white" style="width:28px;height:28px;border:1px solid var(--color-pk-border)" data-state="closed" data-slot="tooltip-trigger"><img src="https://www.google.com/s2/favicons?domain=www.idnfinancials.com&amp;sz=64" alt="IDNFinancials" referrerPolicy="no-referrer" width="18" height="18" loading="lazy" style="object-fit:contain"/></a></div></div></div><div class="flex gap-3 relative !h-0 !overflow-hidden !p-0 !m-0" style="content-visibility:hidden" inert="" aria-hidden="true"><div class="flex flex-col items-center shrink-0"><div class="w-px h-[7px] bg-pk-border"></div><div class="w-3 h-3 rounded-full border-2 border-pk-gray-300 bg-pk-surface shrink-0"></div><div class="w-px flex-1 bg-pk-border"></div></div><div class="flex-1 pb-8"><span class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary">Aug 20 2026</span><p class="text-body-base font-semibold text-pk-content-primary leading-5 mt-1">Fed officials signal possible rate hikes if inflation persists</p><p class="flex items-center gap-1 text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary mt-0.5"><span>25 bps increase<!-- --> <!-- -->surges to<!-- --> <!-- -->41<!-- -->%</span><span class="inline-flex items-center gap-0.5 font-semibold text-pk-content-accent-green"><svg width="8" height="8" viewBox="0 0 12 12" fill="none" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><path d="M6.51952 2.5C6.28858 2.1 5.71123 2.1 5.48029 2.5L1.84298 8.8C1.61204 9.2 1.90072 9.7 2.3626 9.7L9.63721 9.7C10.0991 9.7 10.3878 9.2 10.1568 8.8L6.51952 2.5Z" fill="currentColor"></path></svg>16<!-- -->%</span></p><p class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-secondary leading-5 mt-1">Minutes from a recent Fed meeting indicated that many officials thought the central bank might need to raise short-term interest rates if inflation did not subside, reviving expectations of a potential 25 basis points increase. This hawkish tone caused markets to reassess the likelihood of rate hikes in September.</p><div class="flex items-center gap-1.5 mt-3"><a href="https://www.lapost.com/tag/monetary-policy" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" class="flex items-center justify-center rounded-md overflow-hidden bg-white" style="width:28px;height:28px;border:1px solid var(--color-pk-border)" data-state="closed" data-slot="tooltip-trigger"><img src="https://www.google.com/s2/favicons?domain=www.lapost.com&amp;sz=64" alt="LA Post" referrerPolicy="no-referrer" width="18" height="18" loading="lazy" style="object-fit:contain"/></a></div></div></div><div class="flex gap-3 relative !h-0 !overflow-hidden !p-0 !m-0" style="content-visibility:hidden" inert="" aria-hidden="true"><div class="flex flex-col items-center shrink-0"><div class="w-px h-[7px] bg-pk-border"></div><div class="w-3 h-3 rounded-full border-2 border-pk-gray-300 bg-pk-surface shrink-0"></div><div class="w-px flex-1 bg-pk-border"></div></div><div class="flex-1 pb-8"><span class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary">Aug 19 2026</span><p class="text-body-base font-semibold text-pk-content-primary leading-5 mt-1">Release of July FOMC meeting minutes reveals three dissenters favored rate hike</p><p class="flex items-center gap-1 text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary mt-0.5"><span>25 bps increase<!-- --> <!-- -->surges to<!-- --> <!-- -->38<!-- -->%</span><span class="inline-flex items-center gap-0.5 font-semibold text-pk-content-accent-green"><svg width="8" height="8" viewBox="0 0 12 12" fill="none" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><path d="M6.51952 2.5C6.28858 2.1 5.71123 2.1 5.48029 2.5L1.84298 8.8C1.61204 9.2 1.90072 9.7 2.3626 9.7L9.63721 9.7C10.0991 9.7 10.3878 9.2 10.1568 8.8L6.51952 2.5Z" fill="currentColor"></path></svg>22<!-- -->%</span></p><p class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-secondary leading-5 mt-1">The minutes from the July 28-29 FOMC meeting showed a closer split than the statement suggested, with three members voting for an immediate hike and several others favoring a 25 basis points increase. This reinforced market pricing for a September hike.</p><div class="flex items-center gap-1.5 mt-3"><a href="https://www.securities.io/fed-minutes-show-three-dissenters-favored-a-hike-as-markets-priced-september/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" class="flex items-center justify-center rounded-md overflow-hidden bg-white" style="width:28px;height:28px;border:1px solid var(--color-pk-border)" data-state="closed" data-slot="tooltip-trigger"><img src="https://www.google.com/s2/favicons?domain=www.securities.io&amp;sz=64" alt="Securities.io" referrerPolicy="no-referrer" width="18" height="18" loading="lazy" style="object-fit:contain"/></a></div></div></div><div class="flex gap-3 relative !h-0 !overflow-hidden !p-0 !m-0" style="content-visibility:hidden" inert="" aria-hidden="true"><div class="flex flex-col items-center shrink-0"><div class="w-px h-[7px] bg-pk-border"></div><div class="w-3 h-3 rounded-full border-2 border-pk-gray-300 bg-pk-surface shrink-0"></div><div class="w-px flex-1 bg-pk-border"></div></div><div class="flex-1 pb-8"><span class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary">Aug 19 2026</span><p class="text-body-base font-semibold text-pk-content-primary leading-5 mt-1">Release of July FOMC minutes reveals committee split and dissent details</p><p class="flex items-center gap-1 text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary mt-0.5"><span>25 bps increase<!-- --> <!-- -->surges to<!-- --> <!-- -->38<!-- -->%</span><span class="inline-flex items-center gap-0.5 font-semibold text-pk-content-accent-green"><svg width="8" height="8" viewBox="0 0 12 12" fill="none" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><path d="M6.51952 2.5C6.28858 2.1 5.71123 2.1 5.48029 2.5L1.84298 8.8C1.61204 9.2 1.90072 9.7 2.3626 9.7L9.63721 9.7C10.0991 9.7 10.3878 9.2 10.1568 8.8L6.51952 2.5Z" fill="currentColor"></path></svg>22<!-- -->%</span></p><p class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-secondary leading-5 mt-1">The publication of the July FOMC minutes on August 19 provided market participants with detailed insights into the committee&#x27;s divided stance on interest rates, reinforcing expectations for a potential 25 bps hike in September and causing shifts in market pricing.</p><div class="flex items-center gap-1.5 mt-3"><a href="https://www.regardsofwallstreet.com/news/fomc-minutes-august-19-2026-what-time" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" class="flex items-center justify-center rounded-md overflow-hidden bg-white" style="width:28px;height:28px;border:1px solid var(--color-pk-border)" data-state="closed" data-slot="tooltip-trigger"><img src="https://www.google.com/s2/favicons?domain=www.regardsofwallstreet.com&amp;sz=64" alt="Regards of Wallstreet" referrerPolicy="no-referrer" width="18" height="18" loading="lazy" style="object-fit:contain"/></a></div></div></div><div class="flex gap-3 relative !h-0 !overflow-hidden !p-0 !m-0" style="content-visibility:hidden" inert="" aria-hidden="true"><div class="flex flex-col items-center shrink-0"><div class="w-px h-[7px] bg-pk-border"></div><div class="w-3 h-3 rounded-full border-2 border-pk-gray-300 bg-pk-surface shrink-0"></div><div class="w-px flex-1 bg-pk-border"></div></div><div class="flex-1 pb-8"><span class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary">Aug 19 2026</span><p class="text-body-base font-semibold text-pk-content-primary leading-5 mt-1">Fed Minutes Reveal Officials&#x27; Concerns Over Inflation and Potential Rate Hike</p><p class="flex items-center gap-1 text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary mt-0.5"><span>25 bps increase<!-- --> <!-- -->surges to<!-- --> <!-- -->53<!-- -->%</span><span class="inline-flex items-center gap-0.5 font-semibold text-pk-content-accent-green"><svg width="8" height="8" viewBox="0 0 12 12" fill="none" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><path d="M6.51952 2.5C6.28858 2.1 5.71123 2.1 5.48029 2.5L1.84298 8.8C1.61204 9.2 1.90072 9.7 2.3626 9.7L9.63721 9.7C10.0991 9.7 10.3878 9.2 10.1568 8.8L6.51952 2.5Z" fill="currentColor"></path></svg>25<!-- -->%</span></p><p class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-secondary leading-5 mt-1">The minutes from the July FOMC meeting showed that many Fed officials believed further policy tightening would be necessary if inflation did not decline. The committee noted that financial conditions might not be sufficiently restrictive to return inflation to the 2% target, reinforcing expectations for a possible rate hike in September.</p><div class="flex items-center gap-1.5 mt-3"><a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2026/08/19/fed-minutes-july-2026-officials-saw-need-for-rate-hike-if-inflation-doesnt-cool.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" class="flex items-center justify-center rounded-md overflow-hidden bg-white" style="width:28px;height:28px;border:1px solid var(--color-pk-border)" data-state="closed" data-slot="tooltip-trigger"><img src="https://www.google.com/s2/favicons?domain=www.cnbc.com&amp;sz=64" alt="CNBC" referrerPolicy="no-referrer" width="18" height="18" loading="lazy" style="object-fit:contain"/></a></div></div></div><div class="flex gap-3 relative !h-0 !overflow-hidden !p-0 !m-0" style="content-visibility:hidden" inert="" aria-hidden="true"><div class="flex flex-col items-center shrink-0"><div class="w-px h-[7px] bg-pk-border"></div><div class="w-3 h-3 rounded-full border-2 border-pk-gray-300 bg-pk-surface shrink-0"></div><div class="w-px flex-1 bg-pk-border"></div></div><div class="flex-1 pb-8"><span class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary">Aug 19 2026</span><p class="text-body-base font-semibold text-pk-content-primary leading-5 mt-1">FOMC minutes reveal split decision and inflation concerns ahead of September meeting</p><p class="flex items-center gap-1 text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary mt-0.5"><span>25 bps increase<!-- --> <!-- -->jumps to<!-- --> <!-- -->65<!-- -->%</span><span class="inline-flex items-center gap-0.5 font-semibold text-pk-content-accent-green"><svg width="8" height="8" viewBox="0 0 12 12" fill="none" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><path d="M6.51952 2.5C6.28858 2.1 5.71123 2.1 5.48029 2.5L1.84298 8.8C1.61204 9.2 1.90072 9.7 2.3626 9.7L9.63721 9.7C10.0991 9.7 10.3878 9.2 10.1568 8.8L6.51952 2.5Z" fill="currentColor"></path></svg>5<!-- -->%</span></p><p class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-secondary leading-5 mt-1">The minutes from the July FOMC meeting highlighted a split among policymakers, with three voting for a rate hike due to inflation risks. The Committee reaffirmed its commitment to price stability, signaling a likely 25 basis point increase in September.</p><div class="flex items-center gap-1.5 mt-3"><a href="https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomcminutes20260617.htm" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" class="flex items-center justify-center rounded-md overflow-hidden bg-white" style="width:28px;height:28px;border:1px solid var(--color-pk-border)" data-state="closed" data-slot="tooltip-trigger"><img src="https://www.google.com/s2/favicons?domain=www.federalreserve.gov&amp;sz=64" alt="Federal Reserve Board" referrerPolicy="no-referrer" width="18" height="18" loading="lazy" style="object-fit:contain"/></a></div></div></div><div class="flex gap-3 relative !h-0 !overflow-hidden !p-0 !m-0" style="content-visibility:hidden" inert="" aria-hidden="true"><div class="flex flex-col items-center shrink-0"><div class="w-px h-[7px] bg-pk-border"></div><div class="w-3 h-3 rounded-full border-2 border-pk-gray-300 bg-pk-surface shrink-0"></div><div class="w-px flex-1 bg-pk-border"></div></div><div class="flex-1 pb-8"><span class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary">Aug 19 2026</span><p class="text-body-base font-semibold text-pk-content-primary leading-5 mt-1">FOMC minutes reveal hawkish tone, inflation risks remain elevated</p><p class="flex items-center gap-1 text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary mt-0.5"><span>No change<!-- --> <!-- -->jumps to<!-- --> <!-- -->59<!-- -->%</span><span class="inline-flex items-center gap-0.5 font-semibold text-pk-content-accent-green"><svg width="8" height="8" viewBox="0 0 12 12" fill="none" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><path d="M6.51952 2.5C6.28858 2.1 5.71123 2.1 5.48029 2.5L1.84298 8.8C1.61204 9.2 1.90072 9.7 2.3626 9.7L9.63721 9.7C10.0991 9.7 10.3878 9.2 10.1568 8.8L6.51952 2.5Z" fill="currentColor"></path></svg>5<!-- -->%</span></p><p class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-secondary leading-5 mt-1">The release of the August 19 FOMC minutes showed that several participants favored raising rates if inflation did not decline, emphasizing upside risks from supply shocks and geopolitical tensions. This hawkish tone supported market pricing for no change or a 25 bps increase in September, while diminishing expectations for rate cuts.</p><div class="flex items-center gap-1.5 mt-3"><a href="https://www.pnc.com/content/dam/pnc-com/pdf/aboutpnc/EconomicReports/EconomicUpdates/2026/PNC_Economics_Research_FOMC_Minutes_19_August_2026.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" class="flex items-center justify-center rounded-md overflow-hidden bg-white" style="width:28px;height:28px;border:1px solid var(--color-pk-border)" data-state="closed" data-slot="tooltip-trigger"><img src="https://www.google.com/s2/favicons?domain=www.pnc.com&amp;sz=64" alt="PNC Economics Research" referrerPolicy="no-referrer" width="18" height="18" loading="lazy" style="object-fit:contain"/></a><a href="https://www.newsquawk.com/headlines/preview-fomc-minutes-due-wednesday-19th-august-2026-at-1900bst1400edt" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" class="flex items-center justify-center rounded-md overflow-hidden bg-white" style="width:28px;height:28px;border:1px solid var(--color-pk-border)" data-state="closed" data-slot="tooltip-trigger"><img src="https://www.google.com/s2/favicons?domain=www.newsquawk.com&amp;sz=64" alt="Newsquawk" referrerPolicy="no-referrer" width="18" height="18" loading="lazy" style="object-fit:contain"/></a></div></div></div><div class="flex gap-3 relative !h-0 !overflow-hidden !p-0 !m-0" style="content-visibility:hidden" inert="" aria-hidden="true"><div class="flex flex-col items-center shrink-0"><div class="w-px h-[7px] bg-pk-border"></div><div class="w-3 h-3 rounded-full border-2 border-pk-gray-300 bg-pk-surface shrink-0"></div><div class="w-px flex-1 bg-pk-border"></div></div><div class="flex-1 pb-8"><span class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary">Aug 19 2026</span><p class="text-body-base font-semibold text-pk-content-primary leading-5 mt-1">Federal Reserve releases minutes of July 28-29 FOMC meeting</p><p class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-secondary leading-5 mt-1">The minutes from the July FOMC meeting detailed the divided views among policymakers, including the three dissenters favoring a rate hike. The minutes highlighted ongoing inflation concerns and the Fed&#x27;s readiness to adjust policy, reinforcing market expectations for a September increase.</p><div class="flex items-center gap-1.5 mt-3"><a href="https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20260819a.htm" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" class="flex items-center justify-center rounded-md overflow-hidden bg-white" style="width:28px;height:28px;border:1px solid var(--color-pk-border)" data-state="closed" data-slot="tooltip-trigger"><img src="https://www.google.com/s2/favicons?domain=www.federalreserve.gov&amp;sz=64" alt="Federal Reserve Board" referrerPolicy="no-referrer" width="18" height="18" loading="lazy" style="object-fit:contain"/></a></div></div></div><div class="flex gap-3 relative !h-0 !overflow-hidden !p-0 !m-0" style="content-visibility:hidden" inert="" aria-hidden="true"><div class="flex flex-col items-center shrink-0"><div class="w-px h-[7px] bg-pk-border"></div><div class="w-3 h-3 rounded-full border-2 border-pk-gray-300 bg-pk-surface shrink-0"></div><div class="w-px flex-1 bg-pk-border"></div></div><div class="flex-1 pb-8"><span class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary">Aug 15 2026</span><p class="text-body-base font-semibold text-pk-content-primary leading-5 mt-1">JPMorgan Chase warns of economic risks amid calls for Fed rate cuts</p><p class="flex items-center gap-1 text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary mt-0.5"><span>25 bps decrease<!-- --> <!-- -->dips to<!-- --> <!-- -->1<!-- -->%</span><span class="inline-flex items-center gap-0.5 font-semibold text-pk-content-accent-red"><svg width="8" height="8" viewBox="0 0 12 12" fill="none" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><path d="M6.51952 9.5C6.28858 9.9 5.71123 9.9 5.48029 9.5L1.84298 3.2C1.61204 2.8 1.90072 2.3 2.3626 2.3L9.63721 2.3C10.0991 2.3 10.3878 2.8 10.1568 3.2L6.51952 9.5Z" fill="currentColor"></path></svg>3<!-- -->%</span></p><p class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-secondary leading-5 mt-1">JPMorgan Chase released a report highlighting economic vulnerabilities and advocating for a 100 bps rate cut to support employment and stabilize markets. This influenced market sentiment towards potential rate decreases, though the Fed remained cautious.</p><div class="flex items-center gap-1.5 mt-3"><a href="https://latlonginfo.com/en-us/a/fe386cbbbb184569a30a29a5c741392a.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" class="flex items-center justify-center rounded-md overflow-hidden bg-white" style="width:28px;height:28px;border:1px solid var(--color-pk-border)" data-state="closed" data-slot="tooltip-trigger"><img src="https://www.google.com/s2/favicons?domain=latlonginfo.com&amp;sz=64" alt="LatLongInfo" referrerPolicy="no-referrer" width="18" height="18" loading="lazy" style="object-fit:contain"/></a></div></div></div><div class="flex gap-3 relative !h-0 !overflow-hidden !p-0 !m-0" style="content-visibility:hidden" inert="" aria-hidden="true"><div class="flex flex-col items-center shrink-0"><div class="w-px h-[7px] bg-pk-border"></div><div class="w-3 h-3 rounded-full border-2 border-pk-gray-300 bg-pk-surface shrink-0"></div><div class="w-px flex-1 bg-pk-border"></div></div><div class="flex-1 pb-8"><span class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary">Aug 15 2026</span><p class="text-body-base font-semibold text-pk-content-primary leading-5 mt-1">Federal Reserve Maintains Rates Amid Elevated Inflation and Economic Uncertainty</p><p class="flex items-center gap-1 text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary mt-0.5"><span>No change<!-- --> <!-- -->rises to<!-- --> <!-- -->66<!-- -->%</span><span class="inline-flex items-center gap-0.5 font-semibold text-pk-content-accent-green"><svg width="8" height="8" viewBox="0 0 12 12" fill="none" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><path d="M6.51952 2.5C6.28858 2.1 5.71123 2.1 5.48029 2.5L1.84298 8.8C1.61204 9.2 1.90072 9.7 2.3626 9.7L9.63721 9.7C10.0991 9.7 10.3878 9.2 10.1568 8.8L6.51952 2.5Z" fill="currentColor"></path></svg>3<!-- -->%</span></p><p class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-secondary leading-5 mt-1">In mid-August, the Fed reiterated its commitment to maintaining the federal funds rate at 3.50%-3.75%, highlighting ongoing inflationary pressures partly due to supply shocks and geopolitical tensions. The decision supported the view that the Fed would likely raise rates in September if inflation remains elevated.</p><div class="flex items-center gap-1.5 mt-3"><a href="https://www.ahmedabadmirror.com/us-federal-reserve-holds-int-rates-steady/81918754.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" class="flex items-center justify-center rounded-md overflow-hidden bg-white" style="width:28px;height:28px;border:1px solid var(--color-pk-border)" data-state="closed" data-slot="tooltip-trigger"><img src="https://www.google.com/s2/favicons?domain=www.ahmedabadmirror.com&amp;sz=64" alt="Ahmedabad Mirror" referrerPolicy="no-referrer" width="18" height="18" loading="lazy" style="object-fit:contain"/></a></div></div></div><div class="flex gap-3 relative !h-0 !overflow-hidden !p-0 !m-0" style="content-visibility:hidden" inert="" aria-hidden="true"><div class="flex flex-col items-center shrink-0"><div class="w-px h-[7px] bg-pk-border"></div><div class="w-3 h-3 rounded-full border-2 border-pk-gray-300 bg-pk-surface shrink-0"></div><div class="w-px flex-1 bg-pk-border"></div></div><div class="flex-1 pb-8"><span class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary">Aug 15 2026</span><p class="text-body-base font-semibold text-pk-content-primary leading-5 mt-1">Federal Reserve reiterates commitment to price stability, holds rates steady</p><p class="flex items-center gap-1 text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary mt-0.5"><span>No change<!-- --> <!-- -->jumps to<!-- --> <!-- -->75<!-- -->%</span><span class="inline-flex items-center gap-0.5 font-semibold text-pk-content-accent-green"><svg width="8" height="8" viewBox="0 0 12 12" fill="none" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><path d="M6.51952 2.5C6.28858 2.1 5.71123 2.1 5.48029 2.5L1.84298 8.8C1.61204 9.2 1.90072 9.7 2.3626 9.7L9.63721 9.7C10.0991 9.7 10.3878 9.2 10.1568 8.8L6.51952 2.5Z" fill="currentColor"></path></svg>13<!-- -->%</span></p><p class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-secondary leading-5 mt-1">The Fed maintained the federal funds rate at 3.5%-3.75%, citing solid economic growth and persistent inflation above target. The decision was supported by a 9-3 vote, with dissenters favoring a hike. This reaffirmed market expectations for no change in September.</p><div class="flex items-center gap-1.5 mt-3"><a href="https://www.ahmedabadmirror.com/us-federal-reserve-holds-int-rates-steady/81918754.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" class="flex items-center justify-center rounded-md overflow-hidden bg-white" style="width:28px;height:28px;border:1px solid var(--color-pk-border)" data-state="closed" data-slot="tooltip-trigger"><img src="https://www.google.com/s2/favicons?domain=www.ahmedabadmirror.com&amp;sz=64" alt="Ahmedabad Mirror" referrerPolicy="no-referrer" width="18" height="18" loading="lazy" style="object-fit:contain"/></a></div></div></div><div class="flex gap-3 relative !h-0 !overflow-hidden !p-0 !m-0" style="content-visibility:hidden" inert="" aria-hidden="true"><div class="flex flex-col items-center shrink-0"><div class="w-px h-[7px] bg-pk-border"></div><div class="w-3 h-3 rounded-full border-2 border-pk-gray-300 bg-pk-surface shrink-0"></div><div class="w-px flex-1 bg-pk-border"></div></div><div class="flex-1 pb-8"><span class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary">Aug 15 2026</span><p class="text-body-base font-semibold text-pk-content-primary leading-5 mt-1">Federal Reserve holds rates steady amid ongoing inflation and geopolitical risks</p><p class="flex items-center gap-1 text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary mt-0.5"><span>No change<!-- --> <!-- -->jumps to<!-- --> <!-- -->68<!-- -->%</span><span class="inline-flex items-center gap-0.5 font-semibold text-pk-content-accent-green"><svg width="8" height="8" viewBox="0 0 12 12" fill="none" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><path d="M6.51952 2.5C6.28858 2.1 5.71123 2.1 5.48029 2.5L1.84298 8.8C1.61204 9.2 1.90072 9.7 2.3626 9.7L9.63721 9.7C10.0991 9.7 10.3878 9.2 10.1568 8.8L6.51952 2.5Z" fill="currentColor"></path></svg>5<!-- -->%</span></p><p class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-secondary leading-5 mt-1">On August 15, 2026, the Federal Reserve maintained the federal funds rate at 3.50%–3.75%, citing solid economic growth despite elevated inflation and global uncertainties, including the Middle East conflict. The decision was supported by a 9-3 vote, with dissenters favoring a 25 bps hike, reflecting persistent inflation concerns and setting the stage for a possible September rate increase.</p><div class="flex items-center gap-1.5 mt-3"><a href="https://www.ahmedabadmirror.com/us-federal-reserve-holds-int-rates-steady/81918754.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" class="flex items-center justify-center rounded-md overflow-hidden bg-white" style="width:28px;height:28px;border:1px solid var(--color-pk-border)" data-state="closed" data-slot="tooltip-trigger"><img src="https://www.google.com/s2/favicons?domain=www.ahmedabadmirror.com&amp;sz=64" alt="Ahmedabad Mirror" referrerPolicy="no-referrer" width="18" height="18" loading="lazy" style="object-fit:contain"/></a></div></div></div><div class="flex gap-3 relative !h-0 !overflow-hidden !p-0 !m-0" style="content-visibility:hidden" inert="" aria-hidden="true"><div class="flex flex-col items-center shrink-0"><div class="w-px h-[7px] bg-pk-border"></div><div class="w-3 h-3 rounded-full border-2 border-pk-gray-300 bg-pk-surface shrink-0"></div><div class="w-px flex-1 bg-pk-border"></div></div><div class="flex-1 pb-8"><span class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary">Aug 15 2026</span><p class="text-body-base font-semibold text-pk-content-primary leading-5 mt-1">Federal Reserve Holds Interest Rates Steady Amid Inflation and Global Uncertainty</p><p class="flex items-center gap-1 text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary mt-0.5"><span>No change<!-- --> <!-- -->jumps to<!-- --> <!-- -->76<!-- -->%</span><span class="inline-flex items-center gap-0.5 font-semibold text-pk-content-accent-green"><svg width="8" height="8" viewBox="0 0 12 12" fill="none" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><path d="M6.51952 2.5C6.28858 2.1 5.71123 2.1 5.48029 2.5L1.84298 8.8C1.61204 9.2 1.90072 9.7 2.3626 9.7L9.63721 9.7C10.0991 9.7 10.3878 9.2 10.1568 8.8L6.51952 2.5Z" fill="currentColor"></path></svg>13<!-- -->%</span></p><p class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-secondary leading-5 mt-1">On August 12, the Fed maintained the federal funds rate at 3.50%-3.75%, citing solid economic growth despite inflation above target and global uncertainties including the Middle East conflict. This reinforced the market&#x27;s confidence in the no change outcome for September.</p><div class="flex items-center gap-1.5 mt-3"><a href="https://www.ahmedabadmirror.com/us-federal-reserve-holds-int-rates-steady/81918754.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" class="flex items-center justify-center rounded-md overflow-hidden bg-white" style="width:28px;height:28px;border:1px solid var(--color-pk-border)" data-state="closed" data-slot="tooltip-trigger"><img src="https://www.google.com/s2/favicons?domain=www.ahmedabadmirror.com&amp;sz=64" alt="Ahmedabad Mirror" referrerPolicy="no-referrer" width="18" height="18" loading="lazy" style="object-fit:contain"/></a></div></div></div><div class="flex gap-3 relative !h-0 !overflow-hidden !p-0 !m-0" style="content-visibility:hidden" inert="" aria-hidden="true"><div class="flex flex-col items-center shrink-0"><div class="w-px h-[7px] bg-pk-border"></div><div class="w-3 h-3 rounded-full border-2 border-pk-gray-300 bg-pk-surface shrink-0"></div><div class="w-px flex-1 bg-pk-border"></div></div><div class="flex-1 pb-8"><span class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary">Aug 15 2026</span><p class="text-body-base font-semibold text-pk-content-primary leading-5 mt-1">Federal Reserve maintains steady rates amid solid economic growth and inflation concerns</p><p class="flex items-center gap-1 text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary mt-0.5"><span>No change<!-- --> <!-- -->dips to<!-- --> <!-- -->72<!-- -->%</span><span class="inline-flex items-center gap-0.5 font-semibold text-pk-content-accent-red"><svg width="8" height="8" viewBox="0 0 12 12" fill="none" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><path d="M6.51952 9.5C6.28858 9.9 5.71123 9.9 5.48029 9.5L1.84298 3.2C1.61204 2.8 1.90072 2.3 2.3626 2.3L9.63721 2.3C10.0991 2.3 10.3878 2.8 10.1568 3.2L6.51952 9.5Z" fill="currentColor"></path></svg>3<!-- -->%</span></p><p class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-secondary leading-5 mt-1">On August 15, the Fed reiterated its commitment to price stability while maintaining the federal funds rate at 3.50%-3.75%. The economy was described as expanding at a solid pace despite elevated inflation driven by supply shocks, particularly energy prices. The Fed&#x27;s stance supported market expectations of no change in the near term but left open the possibility of a September hike.</p><div class="flex items-center gap-1.5 mt-3"><a href="https://www.ahmedabadmirror.com/us-federal-reserve-holds-int-rates-steady/81918754.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" class="flex items-center justify-center rounded-md overflow-hidden bg-white" style="width:28px;height:28px;border:1px solid var(--color-pk-border)" data-state="closed" data-slot="tooltip-trigger"><img src="https://www.google.com/s2/favicons?domain=www.ahmedabadmirror.com&amp;sz=64" alt="Ahmedabad Mirror" referrerPolicy="no-referrer" width="18" height="18" loading="lazy" style="object-fit:contain"/></a></div></div></div><div class="flex gap-3 relative !h-0 !overflow-hidden !p-0 !m-0" style="content-visibility:hidden" inert="" aria-hidden="true"><div class="flex flex-col items-center shrink-0"><div class="w-px h-[7px] bg-pk-border"></div><div class="w-3 h-3 rounded-full border-2 border-pk-gray-300 bg-pk-surface shrink-0"></div><div class="w-px flex-1 bg-pk-border"></div></div><div class="flex-1 pb-8"><span class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary">Aug 14 2026</span><p class="text-body-base font-semibold text-pk-content-primary leading-5 mt-1">July CPI inflation data confirms persistent inflation at 3.4%, sustaining hike expectations</p><p class="flex items-center gap-1 text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary mt-0.5"><span>25 bps increase<!-- --> <!-- -->rises to<!-- --> <!-- -->49<!-- -->%</span><span class="inline-flex items-center gap-0.5 font-semibold text-pk-content-accent-green"><svg width="8" height="8" viewBox="0 0 12 12" fill="none" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><path d="M6.51952 2.5C6.28858 2.1 5.71123 2.1 5.48029 2.5L1.84298 8.8C1.61204 9.2 1.90072 9.7 2.3626 9.7L9.63721 9.7C10.0991 9.7 10.3878 9.2 10.1568 8.8L6.51952 2.5Z" fill="currentColor"></path></svg>4<!-- -->%</span></p><p class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-secondary leading-5 mt-1">The July Consumer Price Index (CPI) data released in mid-August showed inflation steady at 3.4%, above the Fed&#x27;s 2% target. This persistent inflation supported market expectations for a possible rate hike at the September meeting.</p><div class="flex items-center gap-1.5 mt-3"><a href="https://www.regardsofwallstreet.com/news/july-cpi-3-4-percent-what-it-means-for-markets" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" class="flex items-center justify-center rounded-md overflow-hidden bg-white" style="width:28px;height:28px;border:1px solid var(--color-pk-border)" data-state="closed" data-slot="tooltip-trigger"><img src="https://www.google.com/s2/favicons?domain=www.regardsofwallstreet.com&amp;sz=64" alt="Regards of Wallstreet" referrerPolicy="no-referrer" width="18" height="18" loading="lazy" style="object-fit:contain"/></a></div></div></div><div class="flex gap-3 relative !h-0 !overflow-hidden !p-0 !m-0" style="content-visibility:hidden" inert="" aria-hidden="true"><div class="flex flex-col items-center shrink-0"><div class="w-px h-[7px] bg-pk-border"></div><div class="w-3 h-3 rounded-full border-2 border-pk-gray-300 bg-pk-surface shrink-0"></div><div class="w-px flex-1 bg-pk-border"></div></div><div class="flex-1 pb-8"><span class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary">Aug 12 2026</span><p class="text-body-base font-semibold text-pk-content-primary leading-5 mt-1">July CPI data shows easing inflation, supporting Fed&#x27;s hold on rates</p><p class="flex items-center gap-1 text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary mt-0.5"><span>No change<!-- --> <!-- -->jumps to<!-- --> <!-- -->54<!-- -->%</span><span class="inline-flex items-center gap-0.5 font-semibold text-pk-content-accent-green"><svg width="8" height="8" viewBox="0 0 12 12" fill="none" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><path d="M6.51952 2.5C6.28858 2.1 5.71123 2.1 5.48029 2.5L1.84298 8.8C1.61204 9.2 1.90072 9.7 2.3626 9.7L9.63721 9.7C10.0991 9.7 10.3878 9.2 10.1568 8.8L6.51952 2.5Z" fill="currentColor"></path></svg>13<!-- -->%</span></p><p class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-secondary leading-5 mt-1">The July Consumer Price Index release indicated a cooling in both headline and core inflation, reducing immediate pressure on the Federal Reserve to raise rates. This data reinforced market expectations for the Fed to maintain the current rate range in September, contributing to the rise in the &#x27;No change&#x27; price and decline in rate cut probabilities.</p><div class="flex items-center gap-1.5 mt-3"><a href="https://www.archynetys.com/topic/monetary-policy" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" class="flex items-center justify-center rounded-md overflow-hidden bg-white" style="width:28px;height:28px;border:1px solid var(--color-pk-border)" data-state="closed" data-slot="tooltip-trigger"><img src="https://www.google.com/s2/favicons?domain=www.archynetys.com&amp;sz=64" alt="Archynetys" referrerPolicy="no-referrer" width="18" height="18" loading="lazy" style="object-fit:contain"/></a></div></div></div><div class="flex gap-3 relative !h-0 !overflow-hidden !p-0 !m-0" style="content-visibility:hidden" inert="" aria-hidden="true"><div class="flex flex-col items-center shrink-0"><div class="w-px h-[7px] bg-pk-border"></div><div class="w-3 h-3 rounded-full border-2 border-pk-gray-300 bg-pk-surface shrink-0"></div><div class="w-px flex-1 bg-pk-border"></div></div><div class="flex-1 pb-8"><span class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary">Aug 12 2026</span><p class="text-body-base font-semibold text-pk-content-primary leading-5 mt-1">Federal Reserve Officials Signal Possible Further Rate Hikes Amid Persistent Inflation</p><p class="flex items-center gap-1 text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary mt-0.5"><span>25 bps increase<!-- --> <!-- -->surges to<!-- --> <!-- -->52<!-- -->%</span><span class="inline-flex items-center gap-0.5 font-semibold text-pk-content-accent-green"><svg width="8" height="8" viewBox="0 0 12 12" fill="none" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><path d="M6.51952 2.5C6.28858 2.1 5.71123 2.1 5.48029 2.5L1.84298 8.8C1.61204 9.2 1.90072 9.7 2.3626 9.7L9.63721 9.7C10.0991 9.7 10.3878 9.2 10.1568 8.8L6.51952 2.5Z" fill="currentColor"></path></svg>15<!-- -->%</span></p><p class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-secondary leading-5 mt-1">In mid-August 2026, Federal Reserve officials expressed concerns about inflation remaining above target and indicated that further rate increases could be necessary. This hawkish tone caused a reassessment in markets, boosting the probability of a 25 bps increase and reducing expectations for no change or rate cuts.</p><div class="flex items-center gap-1.5 mt-3"><a href="https://www.ecmarkets.com/insights/fed-holds-rates-hawkish-hike-expectations/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" class="flex items-center justify-center rounded-md overflow-hidden bg-white" style="width:28px;height:28px;border:1px solid var(--color-pk-border)" data-state="closed" data-slot="tooltip-trigger"><img src="https://www.google.com/s2/favicons?domain=www.ecmarkets.com&amp;sz=64" alt="ECMarkets" referrerPolicy="no-referrer" width="18" height="18" loading="lazy" style="object-fit:contain"/></a></div></div></div><div class="flex gap-3 relative !h-0 !overflow-hidden !p-0 !m-0" style="content-visibility:hidden" inert="" aria-hidden="true"><div class="flex flex-col items-center shrink-0"><div class="w-px h-[7px] bg-pk-border"></div><div class="w-3 h-3 rounded-full border-2 border-pk-gray-300 bg-pk-surface shrink-0"></div><div class="w-px flex-1 bg-pk-border"></div></div><div class="flex-1 pb-8"><span class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary">Aug 12 2026</span><p class="text-body-base font-semibold text-pk-content-primary leading-5 mt-1">July CPI inflation report shows easing but inflation remains above target</p><p class="flex items-center gap-1 text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary mt-0.5"><span>25 bps increase<!-- --> <!-- -->surges to<!-- --> <!-- -->48<!-- -->%</span><span class="inline-flex items-center gap-0.5 font-semibold text-pk-content-accent-green"><svg width="8" height="8" viewBox="0 0 12 12" fill="none" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><path d="M6.51952 2.5C6.28858 2.1 5.71123 2.1 5.48029 2.5L1.84298 8.8C1.61204 9.2 1.90072 9.7 2.3626 9.7L9.63721 9.7C10.0991 9.7 10.3878 9.2 10.1568 8.8L6.51952 2.5Z" fill="currentColor"></path></svg>15<!-- -->%</span></p><p class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-secondary leading-5 mt-1">The August 12 release of the July CPI inflation report indicated some easing in consumer price inflation, but core inflation remained elevated. This mixed inflation data contributed to market expectations that the Fed would likely raise rates by 25 bps in September to continue combating inflationary pressures.</p><div class="flex items-center gap-1.5 mt-3"><a href="https://www.gomarkets.com/en/articles/us-market-drivers-august-2026" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" class="flex items-center justify-center rounded-md overflow-hidden bg-white" style="width:28px;height:28px;border:1px solid var(--color-pk-border)" data-state="closed" data-slot="tooltip-trigger"><img src="https://www.google.com/s2/favicons?domain=www.gomarkets.com&amp;sz=64" alt="GO Markets" referrerPolicy="no-referrer" width="18" height="18" loading="lazy" style="object-fit:contain"/></a></div></div></div><div class="flex gap-3 relative !h-0 !overflow-hidden !p-0 !m-0" style="content-visibility:hidden" inert="" aria-hidden="true"><div class="flex flex-col items-center shrink-0"><div class="w-px h-[7px] bg-pk-border"></div><div class="w-3 h-3 rounded-full border-2 border-pk-gray-300 bg-pk-surface shrink-0"></div><div class="w-px flex-1 bg-pk-border"></div></div><div class="flex-1 pb-8"><span class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary">Aug 12 2026</span><p class="text-body-base font-semibold text-pk-content-primary leading-5 mt-1">US Consumer Price Index Shows Persistent Inflation Above Target</p><p class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-secondary leading-5 mt-1">The release of the US CPI data on August 12 showed inflation remaining elevated, reinforcing concerns about the Fed&#x27;s inflation target and supporting expectations for a possible rate increase in September. This data likely influenced market pricing toward the &#x27;No change&#x27; and &#x27;25 bps increase&#x27; outcomes.</p><div class="flex items-center gap-1.5 mt-3"><a href="https://therighttrader.com/dividend-stocks" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" class="flex items-center justify-center rounded-md overflow-hidden bg-white" style="width:28px;height:28px;border:1px solid var(--color-pk-border)" data-state="closed" data-slot="tooltip-trigger"><img src="https://www.google.com/s2/favicons?domain=therighttrader.com&amp;sz=64" alt="The Right Trader" referrerPolicy="no-referrer" width="18" height="18" loading="lazy" style="object-fit:contain"/></a></div></div></div><div class="flex gap-3 relative !h-0 !overflow-hidden !p-0 !m-0" style="content-visibility:hidden" inert="" aria-hidden="true"><div class="flex flex-col items-center shrink-0"><div class="w-px h-[7px] bg-pk-border"></div><div class="w-3 h-3 rounded-full border-2 border-pk-gray-300 bg-pk-surface shrink-0"></div><div class="w-px flex-1 bg-pk-border"></div></div><div class="flex-1 pb-8"><span class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary">Aug 12 2026</span><p class="text-body-base font-semibold text-pk-content-primary leading-5 mt-1">July Consumer Price Index shows modest inflation rise, easing pressure on Fed</p><p class="flex items-center gap-1 text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary mt-0.5"><span>No change<!-- --> <!-- -->jumps to<!-- --> <!-- -->62<!-- -->%</span><span class="inline-flex items-center gap-0.5 font-semibold text-pk-content-accent-green"><svg width="8" height="8" viewBox="0 0 12 12" fill="none" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><path d="M6.51952 2.5C6.28858 2.1 5.71123 2.1 5.48029 2.5L1.84298 8.8C1.61204 9.2 1.90072 9.7 2.3626 9.7L9.63721 9.7C10.0991 9.7 10.3878 9.2 10.1568 8.8L6.51952 2.5Z" fill="currentColor"></path></svg>6<!-- -->%</span></p><p class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-secondary leading-5 mt-1">The July CPI rose 0.1% monthly with an annual rate of 3.4%, slightly easing inflation pressures but still above the Fed&#x27;s 2% target. This modest increase suggested the Fed might hold rates steady in September, reinforcing the market&#x27;s &#x27;No change&#x27; pricing.</p><div class="flex items-center gap-1.5 mt-3"><a href="https://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2026/aug/12/consumer-prices-rose-modestly-july-easing-pressure-federal-reserve/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" class="flex items-center justify-center rounded-md overflow-hidden bg-white" style="width:28px;height:28px;border:1px solid var(--color-pk-border)" data-state="closed" data-slot="tooltip-trigger"><img src="https://www.google.com/s2/favicons?domain=www.washingtontimes.com&amp;sz=64" alt="The Washington Times" referrerPolicy="no-referrer" width="18" height="18" loading="lazy" style="object-fit:contain"/></a></div></div></div><div class="flex gap-3 relative !h-0 !overflow-hidden !p-0 !m-0" style="content-visibility:hidden" inert="" aria-hidden="true"><div class="flex flex-col items-center shrink-0"><div class="w-px h-[7px] bg-pk-border"></div><div class="w-3 h-3 rounded-full border-2 border-pk-gray-300 bg-pk-surface shrink-0"></div><div class="w-px flex-1 bg-pk-border"></div></div><div class="flex-1 pb-8"><span class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary">Aug 12 2026</span><p class="text-body-base font-semibold text-pk-content-primary leading-5 mt-1">July CPI inflation report shows headline inflation at 3.4%, easing slightly</p><p class="flex items-center gap-1 text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary mt-0.5"><span>No change<!-- --> <!-- -->surges to<!-- --> <!-- -->75<!-- -->%</span><span class="inline-flex items-center gap-0.5 font-semibold text-pk-content-accent-green"><svg width="8" height="8" viewBox="0 0 12 12" fill="none" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><path d="M6.51952 2.5C6.28858 2.1 5.71123 2.1 5.48029 2.5L1.84298 8.8C1.61204 9.2 1.90072 9.7 2.3626 9.7L9.63721 9.7C10.0991 9.7 10.3878 9.2 10.1568 8.8L6.51952 2.5Z" fill="currentColor"></path></svg>16<!-- -->%</span></p><p class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-secondary leading-5 mt-1">The August 12 release of July CPI data showed headline inflation at 3.4% year-over-year, still above the Fed&#x27;s 2% target but indicating a slight easing. This report added complexity to the Fed&#x27;s decision-making, balancing persistent inflation against signs of moderation.</p><div class="flex items-center gap-1.5 mt-3"><a href="https://www.nytimes.com/live/2026/08/12/business/inflation-cpi-report" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" class="flex items-center justify-center rounded-md overflow-hidden bg-white" style="width:28px;height:28px;border:1px solid var(--color-pk-border)" data-state="closed" data-slot="tooltip-trigger"><img src="https://www.google.com/s2/favicons?domain=www.nytimes.com&amp;sz=64" alt="The New York Times" referrerPolicy="no-referrer" width="18" height="18" loading="lazy" style="object-fit:contain"/></a></div></div></div><div class="flex gap-3 relative !h-0 !overflow-hidden !p-0 !m-0" style="content-visibility:hidden" inert="" aria-hidden="true"><div class="flex flex-col items-center shrink-0"><div class="w-px h-[7px] bg-pk-border"></div><div class="w-3 h-3 rounded-full border-2 border-pk-gray-300 bg-pk-surface shrink-0"></div><div class="w-px flex-1 bg-pk-border"></div></div><div class="flex-1 pb-8"><span class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary">Aug 12 2026</span><p class="text-body-base font-semibold text-pk-content-primary leading-5 mt-1">July CPI inflation report indicates easing price pressures but inflation remains above target</p><p class="flex items-center gap-1 text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary mt-0.5"><span>25 bps increase<!-- --> <!-- -->dips to<!-- --> <!-- -->32<!-- -->%</span><span class="inline-flex items-center gap-0.5 font-semibold text-pk-content-accent-red"><svg width="8" height="8" viewBox="0 0 12 12" fill="none" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><path d="M6.51952 9.5C6.28858 9.9 5.71123 9.9 5.48029 9.5L1.84298 3.2C1.61204 2.8 1.90072 2.3 2.3626 2.3L9.63721 2.3C10.0991 2.3 10.3878 2.8 10.1568 3.2L6.51952 9.5Z" fill="currentColor"></path></svg>1<!-- -->%</span></p><p class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-secondary leading-5 mt-1">The July CPI report showed a slight decline in inflation rates, suggesting some easing of price pressures. However, inflation remained above the Fed&#x27;s 2% target, sustaining expectations for a rate hike at the September meeting to maintain price stability.</p><div class="flex items-center gap-1.5 mt-3"><a href="https://gomarkets.com/en-au/articles/us-market-drivers-august-2026" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" class="flex items-center justify-center rounded-md overflow-hidden bg-white" style="width:28px;height:28px;border:1px solid var(--color-pk-border)" data-state="closed" data-slot="tooltip-trigger"><img src="https://www.google.com/s2/favicons?domain=gomarkets.com&amp;sz=64" alt="GO Markets" referrerPolicy="no-referrer" width="18" height="18" loading="lazy" style="object-fit:contain"/></a></div></div></div><div class="flex gap-3 relative !h-0 !overflow-hidden !p-0 !m-0" style="content-visibility:hidden" inert="" aria-hidden="true"><div class="flex flex-col items-center shrink-0"><div class="w-px h-[7px] bg-pk-border"></div><div class="w-3 h-3 rounded-full border-2 border-pk-gray-300 bg-pk-surface shrink-0"></div><div class="w-px flex-1 bg-pk-border"></div></div><div class="flex-1 pb-8"><span class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary">Aug 12 2026</span><p class="text-body-base font-semibold text-pk-content-primary leading-5 mt-1">July CPI report shows inflation easing to 3.4%</p><p class="flex items-center gap-1 text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary mt-0.5"><span>No change<!-- --> <!-- -->jumps to<!-- --> <!-- -->69<!-- -->%</span><span class="inline-flex items-center gap-0.5 font-semibold text-pk-content-accent-green"><svg width="8" height="8" viewBox="0 0 12 12" fill="none" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><path d="M6.51952 2.5C6.28858 2.1 5.71123 2.1 5.48029 2.5L1.84298 8.8C1.61204 9.2 1.90072 9.7 2.3626 9.7L9.63721 9.7C10.0991 9.7 10.3878 9.2 10.1568 8.8L6.51952 2.5Z" fill="currentColor"></path></svg>10<!-- -->%</span></p><p class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-secondary leading-5 mt-1">The July 2026 Consumer Price Index report indicated a slight easing of inflation to 3.4% year-over-year, down from 3.5% in June. This moderation, alongside a softening labor market, created a complex policy environment for the Fed ahead of the September meeting, supporting market expectations of no rate change.</p><div class="flex items-center gap-1.5 mt-3"><a href="https://www.nytimes.com/live/2026/08/12/business/inflation-cpi-report" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" class="flex items-center justify-center rounded-md overflow-hidden bg-white" style="width:28px;height:28px;border:1px solid var(--color-pk-border)" data-state="closed" data-slot="tooltip-trigger"><img src="https://www.google.com/s2/favicons?domain=www.nytimes.com&amp;sz=64" alt="The New York Times" referrerPolicy="no-referrer" width="18" height="18" loading="lazy" style="object-fit:contain"/></a></div></div></div><div class="flex gap-3 relative !h-0 !overflow-hidden !p-0 !m-0" style="content-visibility:hidden" inert="" aria-hidden="true"><div class="flex flex-col items-center shrink-0"><div class="w-px h-[7px] bg-pk-border"></div><div class="w-3 h-3 rounded-full border-2 border-pk-gray-300 bg-pk-surface shrink-0"></div><div class="w-px flex-1 bg-pk-border"></div></div><div class="flex-1 pb-8"><span class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary">Aug 11 2026</span><p class="text-body-base font-semibold text-pk-content-primary leading-5 mt-1">Reserve Bank of Australia holds rates steady at 4.35% amid global uncertainty</p><p class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-secondary leading-5 mt-1">The RBA&#x27;s decision to maintain its cash rate at 4.35% on August 11 reflected a global environment of cautious monetary policy, which influenced market sentiment and reduced expectations for aggressive Fed rate hikes in September. This contributed to the stabilization of the &#x27;No change&#x27; outcome in the Fed market.</p><div class="flex items-center gap-1.5 mt-3"><a href="https://www.financecalendar.com/event/rba-rate-decision-august-2026/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" class="flex items-center justify-center rounded-md overflow-hidden bg-white" style="width:28px;height:28px;border:1px solid var(--color-pk-border)" data-state="closed" data-slot="tooltip-trigger"><img src="https://www.google.com/s2/favicons?domain=www.financecalendar.com&amp;sz=64" alt="Finance Calendar" referrerPolicy="no-referrer" width="18" height="18" loading="lazy" style="object-fit:contain"/></a></div></div></div><div class="flex gap-3 relative !h-0 !overflow-hidden !p-0 !m-0" style="content-visibility:hidden" inert="" aria-hidden="true"><div class="flex flex-col items-center shrink-0"><div class="w-px h-[7px] bg-pk-border"></div><div class="w-3 h-3 rounded-full border-2 border-pk-gray-300 bg-pk-surface shrink-0"></div><div class="w-px flex-1 bg-pk-border"></div></div><div class="flex-1 pb-8"><span class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary">Aug 11 2026</span><p class="text-body-base font-semibold text-pk-content-primary leading-5 mt-1">Rising US mortgage rates and job losses signal economic strain ahead of September Fed meeting</p><p class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-secondary leading-5 mt-1">Reports in August highlighted 23,000 jobs lost in July and a 30-year fixed mortgage rate averaging 6.69%, indicating economic strain. These developments increased market speculation about a potential Fed rate hike in September to address inflation and economic risks.</p><div class="flex items-center gap-1.5 mt-3"><a href="https://www.live-feeds.com/feed/the-federal-reserve-faces-a-critical-decision-on-interest-rates" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" class="flex items-center justify-center rounded-md overflow-hidden bg-white" style="width:28px;height:28px;border:1px solid var(--color-pk-border)" data-state="closed" data-slot="tooltip-trigger"><img src="https://www.google.com/s2/favicons?domain=www.live-feeds.com&amp;sz=64" alt="Live Feeds" referrerPolicy="no-referrer" width="18" height="18" loading="lazy" style="object-fit:contain"/></a></div></div></div><div class="flex gap-3 relative !h-0 !overflow-hidden !p-0 !m-0" style="content-visibility:hidden" inert="" aria-hidden="true"><div class="flex flex-col items-center shrink-0"><div class="w-px h-[7px] bg-pk-border"></div><div class="w-3 h-3 rounded-full border-2 border-pk-gray-300 bg-pk-surface shrink-0"></div><div class="w-px flex-1 bg-pk-border"></div></div><div class="flex-1 pb-8"><span class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary">Aug 10 2026</span><p class="text-body-base font-semibold text-pk-content-primary leading-5 mt-1">Market Expectations Shift Toward 25 Basis Point Rate Increase Ahead of September Meeting</p><p class="flex items-center gap-1 text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary mt-0.5"><span>25 bps increase<!-- --> <!-- -->surges to<!-- --> <!-- -->42<!-- -->%</span><span class="inline-flex items-center gap-0.5 font-semibold text-pk-content-accent-green"><svg width="8" height="8" viewBox="0 0 12 12" fill="none" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><path d="M6.51952 2.5C6.28858 2.1 5.71123 2.1 5.48029 2.5L1.84298 8.8C1.61204 9.2 1.90072 9.7 2.3626 9.7L9.63721 9.7C10.0991 9.7 10.3878 9.2 10.1568 8.8L6.51952 2.5Z" fill="currentColor"></path></svg>18<!-- -->%</span></p><p class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-secondary leading-5 mt-1">In early August, market sentiment shifted with increasing expectations for a 25 basis point rate hike at the upcoming September FOMC meeting, driven by persistent inflation and hawkish Fed communications. This was reflected in rising market prices for the 25 bps increase outcome and declining probabilities for no change.</p><div class="flex items-center gap-1.5 mt-3"><a href="https://www.ishares.com/us/insights/portfolio-insights/fed-outlook-rates-kevin-warsh-fixed-income-2026" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" class="flex items-center justify-center rounded-md overflow-hidden bg-white" style="width:28px;height:28px;border:1px solid var(--color-pk-border)" data-state="closed" data-slot="tooltip-trigger"><img src="https://www.google.com/s2/favicons?domain=www.ishares.com&amp;sz=64" alt="iShares" referrerPolicy="no-referrer" width="18" height="18" loading="lazy" style="object-fit:contain"/></a></div></div></div><div class="flex gap-3 relative !h-0 !overflow-hidden !p-0 !m-0" style="content-visibility:hidden" inert="" aria-hidden="true"><div class="flex flex-col items-center shrink-0"><div class="w-px h-[7px] bg-pk-border"></div><div class="w-3 h-3 rounded-full border-2 border-pk-gray-300 bg-pk-surface shrink-0"></div><div class="w-px flex-1 bg-pk-border"></div></div><div class="flex-1 pb-8"><span class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary">Aug 10 2026</span><p class="text-body-base font-semibold text-pk-content-primary leading-5 mt-1">Political pressure mounts as President Trump calls for aggressive Fed rate cuts</p><p class="flex items-center gap-1 text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary mt-0.5"><span>No change<!-- --> <!-- -->jumps to<!-- --> <!-- -->67<!-- -->%</span><span class="inline-flex items-center gap-0.5 font-semibold text-pk-content-accent-green"><svg width="8" height="8" viewBox="0 0 12 12" fill="none" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><path d="M6.51952 2.5C6.28858 2.1 5.71123 2.1 5.48029 2.5L1.84298 8.8C1.61204 9.2 1.90072 9.7 2.3626 9.7L9.63721 9.7C10.0991 9.7 10.3878 9.2 10.1568 8.8L6.51952 2.5Z" fill="currentColor"></path></svg>11<!-- -->%</span></p><p class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-secondary leading-5 mt-1">President Trump publicly pressured the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates further, but Fed Chair Jerome Powell emphasized the Fed&#x27;s independence and commitment to data-driven policy, which supported market confidence in no change for the September meeting.</p><div class="flex items-center gap-1.5 mt-3"><a href="https://www.aljazeera.com/economy/2026/1/28/us-federal-reserve-holds-interest-rates-steady-despite-political-pressure" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" class="flex items-center justify-center rounded-md overflow-hidden bg-white" style="width:28px;height:28px;border:1px solid var(--color-pk-border)" data-state="closed" data-slot="tooltip-trigger"><img src="https://www.google.com/s2/favicons?domain=www.aljazeera.com&amp;sz=64" alt="Al Jazeera" referrerPolicy="no-referrer" width="18" height="18" loading="lazy" style="object-fit:contain"/></a></div></div></div><div class="flex gap-3 relative !h-0 !overflow-hidden !p-0 !m-0" style="content-visibility:hidden" inert="" aria-hidden="true"><div class="flex flex-col items-center shrink-0"><div class="w-px h-[7px] bg-pk-border"></div><div class="w-3 h-3 rounded-full border-2 border-pk-gray-300 bg-pk-surface shrink-0"></div><div class="w-px flex-1 bg-pk-border"></div></div><div class="flex-1 pb-8"><span class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary">Aug 10 2026</span><p class="text-body-base font-semibold text-pk-content-primary leading-5 mt-1">Federal Reserve interest rate remains at 3.50%-3.75% as markets await September decision</p><p class="flex items-center gap-1 text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary mt-0.5"><span>25 bps increase<!-- --> <!-- -->jumps to<!-- --> <!-- -->44<!-- -->%</span><span class="inline-flex items-center gap-0.5 font-semibold text-pk-content-accent-green"><svg width="8" height="8" viewBox="0 0 12 12" fill="none" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><path d="M6.51952 2.5C6.28858 2.1 5.71123 2.1 5.48029 2.5L1.84298 8.8C1.61204 9.2 1.90072 9.7 2.3626 9.7L9.63721 9.7C10.0991 9.7 10.3878 9.2 10.1568 8.8L6.51952 2.5Z" fill="currentColor"></path></svg>5<!-- -->%</span></p><p class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-secondary leading-5 mt-1">As of early August, the Federal Reserve maintained the federal funds rate at 3.50%-3.75%, with markets pricing in a significant probability of a 25 basis point hike at the upcoming September meeting. Inflation concerns and geopolitical risks continued to influence expectations for monetary policy tightening.</p><div class="flex items-center gap-1.5 mt-3"><a href="https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h15/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" class="flex items-center justify-center rounded-md overflow-hidden bg-white" style="width:28px;height:28px;border:1px solid var(--color-pk-border)" data-state="closed" data-slot="tooltip-trigger"><img src="https://www.google.com/s2/favicons?domain=www.federalreserve.gov&amp;sz=64" alt="federalreserve.gov" referrerPolicy="no-referrer" width="18" height="18" loading="lazy" style="object-fit:contain"/></a></div></div></div><div class="flex gap-3 relative !h-0 !overflow-hidden !p-0 !m-0" style="content-visibility:hidden" inert="" aria-hidden="true"><div class="flex flex-col items-center shrink-0"><div class="w-px h-[7px] bg-pk-border"></div><div class="w-3 h-3 rounded-full border-2 border-pk-gray-300 bg-pk-surface shrink-0"></div><div class="w-px flex-1 bg-pk-border"></div></div><div class="flex-1 pb-8"><span class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary">Aug 10 2026</span><p class="text-body-base font-semibold text-pk-content-primary leading-5 mt-1">Rising Inflation and Geopolitical Tensions Fuel Expectations of September Rate Hike</p><p class="flex items-center gap-1 text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary mt-0.5"><span>25 bps increase<!-- --> <!-- -->drops to<!-- --> <!-- -->31<!-- -->%</span><span class="inline-flex items-center gap-0.5 font-semibold text-pk-content-accent-red"><svg width="8" height="8" viewBox="0 0 12 12" fill="none" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><path d="M6.51952 9.5C6.28858 9.9 5.71123 9.9 5.48029 9.5L1.84298 3.2C1.61204 2.8 1.90072 2.3 2.3626 2.3L9.63721 2.3C10.0991 2.3 10.3878 2.8 10.1568 3.2L6.51952 9.5Z" fill="currentColor"></path></svg>8<!-- -->%</span></p><p class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-secondary leading-5 mt-1">In early August, persistent inflation above the Fed&#x27;s 2% target and renewed geopolitical tensions, especially the U.S.-Iran conflict affecting energy prices, led investors to price in a 67% probability of a 25 basis points rate increase at the September FOMC meeting. The Fed&#x27;s hawkish signals and economic data supported this shift in market sentiment.</p><div class="flex items-center gap-1.5 mt-3"><a href="https://quorumpw.com/insights/august-2026-market-update/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" class="flex items-center justify-center rounded-md overflow-hidden bg-white" style="width:28px;height:28px;border:1px solid var(--color-pk-border)" data-state="closed" data-slot="tooltip-trigger"><img src="https://www.google.com/s2/favicons?domain=quorumpw.com&amp;sz=64" alt="Quorum Private Wealth" referrerPolicy="no-referrer" width="18" height="18" loading="lazy" style="object-fit:contain"/></a></div></div></div><div class="flex gap-3 relative !h-0 !overflow-hidden !p-0 !m-0" style="content-visibility:hidden" inert="" aria-hidden="true"><div class="flex flex-col items-center shrink-0"><div class="w-px h-[7px] bg-pk-border"></div><div class="w-3 h-3 rounded-full border-2 border-pk-gray-300 bg-pk-surface shrink-0"></div><div class="w-px flex-1 bg-pk-border"></div></div><div class="flex-1 pb-8"><span class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary">Aug 7 2026</span><p class="text-body-base font-semibold text-pk-content-primary leading-5 mt-1">July employment report shows labor market weakening, adding uncertainty to Fed rate path</p><p class="flex items-center gap-1 text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary mt-0.5"><span>25 bps increase<!-- --> <!-- -->drops to<!-- --> <!-- -->49<!-- -->%</span><span class="inline-flex items-center gap-0.5 font-semibold text-pk-content-accent-red"><svg width="8" height="8" viewBox="0 0 12 12" fill="none" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><path d="M6.51952 9.5C6.28858 9.9 5.71123 9.9 5.48029 9.5L1.84298 3.2C1.61204 2.8 1.90072 2.3 2.3626 2.3L9.63721 2.3C10.0991 2.3 10.3878 2.8 10.1568 3.2L6.51952 9.5Z" fill="currentColor"></path></svg>11<!-- -->%</span></p><p class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-secondary leading-5 mt-1">The July jobs report revealed a decline in nonfarm payrolls and a slight drop in unemployment, reinforcing a cooling labor market. This mixed signal contributed to market volatility and tempered expectations for aggressive Fed hikes, though a 25 bps increase remained favored.</p><div class="flex items-center gap-1.5 mt-3"><a href="https://gomarkets.com/en-au/articles/us-market-drivers-august-2026" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" class="flex items-center justify-center rounded-md overflow-hidden bg-white" style="width:28px;height:28px;border:1px solid var(--color-pk-border)" data-state="closed" data-slot="tooltip-trigger"><img src="https://www.google.com/s2/favicons?domain=gomarkets.com&amp;sz=64" alt="GO Markets" referrerPolicy="no-referrer" width="18" height="18" loading="lazy" style="object-fit:contain"/></a></div></div></div><div class="flex gap-3 relative !h-0 !overflow-hidden !p-0 !m-0" style="content-visibility:hidden" inert="" aria-hidden="true"><div class="flex flex-col items-center shrink-0"><div class="w-px h-[7px] bg-pk-border"></div><div class="w-3 h-3 rounded-full border-2 border-pk-gray-300 bg-pk-surface shrink-0"></div><div class="w-px flex-1 bg-pk-border"></div></div><div class="flex-1 pb-8"><span class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary">Aug 7 2026</span><p class="text-body-base font-semibold text-pk-content-primary leading-5 mt-1">July jobs report shows 23,000 job losses, raising recession concerns</p><p class="flex items-center gap-1 text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary mt-0.5"><span>No change<!-- --> <!-- -->surges to<!-- --> <!-- -->54<!-- -->%</span><span class="inline-flex items-center gap-0.5 font-semibold text-pk-content-accent-green"><svg width="8" height="8" viewBox="0 0 12 12" fill="none" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><path d="M6.51952 2.5C6.28858 2.1 5.71123 2.1 5.48029 2.5L1.84298 8.8C1.61204 9.2 1.90072 9.7 2.3626 9.7L9.63721 9.7C10.0991 9.7 10.3878 9.2 10.1568 8.8L6.51952 2.5Z" fill="currentColor"></path></svg>15<!-- -->%</span></p><p class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-secondary leading-5 mt-1">The July employment report revealed a loss of 23,000 jobs and downward revisions to prior months, signaling labor market weakening. This mixed signal complicated the Fed&#x27;s outlook, tempering expectations for aggressive rate hikes and supporting some market optimism for no change.</p><div class="flex items-center gap-1.5 mt-3"><a href="https://trerc.tamu.edu/reports/texas-economic-outlook-august-2026/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" class="flex items-center justify-center rounded-md overflow-hidden bg-white" style="width:28px;height:28px;border:1px solid var(--color-pk-border)" data-state="closed" data-slot="tooltip-trigger"><img src="https://www.google.com/s2/favicons?domain=trerc.tamu.edu&amp;sz=64" alt="trerc.tamu.edu" referrerPolicy="no-referrer" width="18" height="18" loading="lazy" style="object-fit:contain"/></a></div></div></div><div class="flex gap-3 relative !h-0 !overflow-hidden !p-0 !m-0" style="content-visibility:hidden" inert="" aria-hidden="true"><div class="flex flex-col items-center shrink-0"><div class="w-px h-[7px] bg-pk-border"></div><div class="w-3 h-3 rounded-full border-2 border-pk-gray-300 bg-pk-surface shrink-0"></div><div class="w-px flex-1 bg-pk-border"></div></div><div class="flex-1 pb-8"><span class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary">Aug 7 2026</span><p class="text-body-base font-semibold text-pk-content-primary leading-5 mt-1">July jobs report shows labor market weakening, shifting Fed expectations</p><p class="flex items-center gap-1 text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary mt-0.5"><span>25 bps increase<!-- --> <!-- -->jumps to<!-- --> <!-- -->40<!-- -->%</span><span class="inline-flex items-center gap-0.5 font-semibold text-pk-content-accent-green"><svg width="8" height="8" viewBox="0 0 12 12" fill="none" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><path d="M6.51952 2.5C6.28858 2.1 5.71123 2.1 5.48029 2.5L1.84298 8.8C1.61204 9.2 1.90072 9.7 2.3626 9.7L9.63721 9.7C10.0991 9.7 10.3878 9.2 10.1568 8.8L6.51952 2.5Z" fill="currentColor"></path></svg>9<!-- -->%</span></p><p class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-secondary leading-5 mt-1">The July jobs report released on August 7 showed a decline of 23,000 nonfarm payrolls and a slight drop in the unemployment rate to 4.1%, reinforcing signs of a cooling labor market. This data contributed to market reassessment of the Fed&#x27;s likely September decision, increasing expectations for a possible rate hold or modest hike.</p><div class="flex items-center gap-1.5 mt-3"><a href="https://primerates.com/primerate/fed-meeting-schedule/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" class="flex items-center justify-center rounded-md overflow-hidden bg-white" style="width:28px;height:28px;border:1px solid var(--color-pk-border)" data-state="closed" data-slot="tooltip-trigger"><img src="https://www.google.com/s2/favicons?domain=primerates.com&amp;sz=64" alt="PrimeRates" referrerPolicy="no-referrer" width="18" height="18" loading="lazy" style="object-fit:contain"/></a></div></div></div><div class="flex gap-3 relative !h-0 !overflow-hidden !p-0 !m-0" style="content-visibility:hidden" inert="" aria-hidden="true"><div class="flex flex-col items-center shrink-0"><div class="w-px h-[7px] bg-pk-border"></div><div class="w-3 h-3 rounded-full border-2 border-pk-gray-300 bg-pk-surface shrink-0"></div><div class="w-px flex-1 bg-pk-border"></div></div><div class="flex-1 pb-8"><span class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary">Aug 7 2026</span><p class="text-body-base font-semibold text-pk-content-primary leading-5 mt-1">Rising inflation and geopolitical tensions sustain rate hike expectations</p><p class="flex items-center gap-1 text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary mt-0.5"><span>25 bps increase<!-- --> <!-- -->drops to<!-- --> <!-- -->28<!-- -->%</span><span class="inline-flex items-center gap-0.5 font-semibold text-pk-content-accent-red"><svg width="8" height="8" viewBox="0 0 12 12" fill="none" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><path d="M6.51952 9.5C6.28858 9.9 5.71123 9.9 5.48029 9.5L1.84298 3.2C1.61204 2.8 1.90072 2.3 2.3626 2.3L9.63721 2.3C10.0991 2.3 10.3878 2.8 10.1568 3.2L6.51952 9.5Z" fill="currentColor"></path></svg>9<!-- -->%</span></p><p class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-secondary leading-5 mt-1">In early August 2026, ongoing inflation pressures driven by elevated energy prices and geopolitical uncertainty, including the Middle East conflict, maintained market expectations for a potential 25 bps rate increase in September. This contributed to fluctuations in the probabilities for &#x27;No change&#x27; and &#x27;25 bps increase&#x27; outcomes.</p><div class="flex items-center gap-1.5 mt-3"><a href="https://www.thetechedvocate.org/unveiling-the-dire-reality-why-your-wallet-faces-a-double-whammy-in-august-2026/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" class="flex items-center justify-center rounded-md overflow-hidden bg-white" style="width:28px;height:28px;border:1px solid var(--color-pk-border)" data-state="closed" data-slot="tooltip-trigger"><img src="https://www.google.com/s2/favicons?domain=www.thetechedvocate.org&amp;sz=64" alt="The Techedvocate" referrerPolicy="no-referrer" width="18" height="18" loading="lazy" style="object-fit:contain"/></a></div></div></div><div class="flex gap-3 relative !h-0 !overflow-hidden !p-0 !m-0" style="content-visibility:hidden" inert="" aria-hidden="true"><div class="flex flex-col items-center shrink-0"><div class="w-px h-[7px] bg-pk-border"></div><div class="w-3 h-3 rounded-full border-2 border-pk-gray-300 bg-pk-surface shrink-0"></div><div class="w-px flex-1 bg-pk-border"></div></div><div class="flex-1 pb-8"><span class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary">Aug 7 2026</span><p class="text-body-base font-semibold text-pk-content-primary leading-5 mt-1">US economy shows signs of strain amid rising borrowing costs and job losses</p><p class="flex items-center gap-1 text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary mt-0.5"><span>25 bps increase<!-- --> <!-- -->plunges to<!-- --> <!-- -->28<!-- -->%</span><span class="inline-flex items-center gap-0.5 font-semibold text-pk-content-accent-red"><svg width="8" height="8" viewBox="0 0 12 12" fill="none" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><path d="M6.51952 9.5C6.28858 9.9 5.71123 9.9 5.48029 9.5L1.84298 3.2C1.61204 2.8 1.90072 2.3 2.3626 2.3L9.63721 2.3C10.0991 2.3 10.3878 2.8 10.1568 3.2L6.51952 9.5Z" fill="currentColor"></path></svg>16<!-- -->%</span></p><p class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-secondary leading-5 mt-1">In early August, reports indicated the US economy was facing challenges with 23,000 jobs lost in July and rising mortgage rates averaging 6.69%. These developments increased market speculation about a potential Federal Reserve rate hike in September, contributing to shifts in market expectations and currency valuations.</p><div class="flex items-center gap-1.5 mt-3"><a href="https://www.live-feeds.com/feed/the-federal-reserve-faces-a-critical-decision-on-interest-rates" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" class="flex items-center justify-center rounded-md overflow-hidden bg-white" style="width:28px;height:28px;border:1px solid var(--color-pk-border)" data-state="closed" data-slot="tooltip-trigger"><img src="https://www.google.com/s2/favicons?domain=www.live-feeds.com&amp;sz=64" alt="Live Feeds" referrerPolicy="no-referrer" width="18" height="18" loading="lazy" style="object-fit:contain"/></a></div></div></div><div class="flex gap-3 relative !h-0 !overflow-hidden !p-0 !m-0" style="content-visibility:hidden" inert="" aria-hidden="true"><div class="flex flex-col items-center shrink-0"><div class="w-px h-[7px] bg-pk-border"></div><div class="w-3 h-3 rounded-full border-2 border-pk-gray-300 bg-pk-surface shrink-0"></div><div class="w-px flex-1 bg-pk-border"></div></div><div class="flex-1 pb-8"><span class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary">Aug 7 2026</span><p class="text-body-base font-semibold text-pk-content-primary leading-5 mt-1">July jobs data shows softer hiring, inflation forecast remains elevated</p><p class="flex items-center gap-1 text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary mt-0.5"><span>No change<!-- --> <!-- -->jumps to<!-- --> <!-- -->49<!-- -->%</span><span class="inline-flex items-center gap-0.5 font-semibold text-pk-content-accent-green"><svg width="8" height="8" viewBox="0 0 12 12" fill="none" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><path d="M6.51952 2.5C6.28858 2.1 5.71123 2.1 5.48029 2.5L1.84298 8.8C1.61204 9.2 1.90072 9.7 2.3626 9.7L9.63721 9.7C10.0991 9.7 10.3878 9.2 10.1568 8.8L6.51952 2.5Z" fill="currentColor"></path></svg>9<!-- -->%</span></p><p class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-secondary leading-5 mt-1">The July 2026 Nonfarm Payrolls report revealed weaker-than-expected job growth, with new jobs below consensus forecasts. The Federal Reserve&#x27;s August inflation forecast projected persistent PCE inflation at 3.6%, signaling ongoing inflation risks. These data points contributed to market caution and supported expectations of a Fed pause in September.</p><div class="flex items-center gap-1.5 mt-3"><a href="https://www.interactivecrypto.com/july-jobs-data-and-fed-inflation-forecast-push-markets-toward-higher-rates-aug-2026" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" class="flex items-center justify-center rounded-md overflow-hidden bg-white" style="width:28px;height:28px;border:1px solid var(--color-pk-border)" data-state="closed" data-slot="tooltip-trigger"><img src="https://www.google.com/s2/favicons?domain=www.interactivecrypto.com&amp;sz=64" alt="Interactive Crypto" referrerPolicy="no-referrer" width="18" height="18" loading="lazy" style="object-fit:contain"/></a></div></div></div><div class="flex gap-3 relative !h-0 !overflow-hidden !p-0 !m-0" style="content-visibility:hidden" inert="" aria-hidden="true"><div class="flex flex-col items-center shrink-0"><div class="w-px h-[7px] bg-pk-border"></div><div class="w-3 h-3 rounded-full border-2 border-pk-gray-300 bg-pk-surface shrink-0"></div><div class="w-px flex-1 bg-pk-border"></div></div><div class="flex-1 pb-8"><span class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary">Aug 7 2026</span><p class="text-body-base font-semibold text-pk-content-primary leading-5 mt-1">July jobs report shows labor market weakening with 23,000 jobs lost</p><p class="flex items-center gap-1 text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary mt-0.5"><span>No change<!-- --> <!-- -->rises to<!-- --> <!-- -->56<!-- -->%</span><span class="inline-flex items-center gap-0.5 font-semibold text-pk-content-accent-green"><svg width="8" height="8" viewBox="0 0 12 12" fill="none" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><path d="M6.51952 2.5C6.28858 2.1 5.71123 2.1 5.48029 2.5L1.84298 8.8C1.61204 9.2 1.90072 9.7 2.3626 9.7L9.63721 9.7C10.0991 9.7 10.3878 9.2 10.1568 8.8L6.51952 2.5Z" fill="currentColor"></path></svg>4<!-- -->%</span></p><p class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-secondary leading-5 mt-1">The July employment data revealed a loss of 23,000 jobs, signaling economic strain and influencing market expectations toward a more cautious Fed stance. This data supported the &#x27;No change&#x27; outcome as the Fed weighed inflation risks against labor market weakness.</p><div class="flex items-center gap-1.5 mt-3"><a href="https://www.live-feeds.com/feed/the-federal-reserve-faces-a-critical-decision-on-interest-rates" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" class="flex items-center justify-center rounded-md overflow-hidden bg-white" style="width:28px;height:28px;border:1px solid var(--color-pk-border)" data-state="closed" data-slot="tooltip-trigger"><img src="https://www.google.com/s2/favicons?domain=www.live-feeds.com&amp;sz=64" alt="live-feeds.com" referrerPolicy="no-referrer" width="18" height="18" loading="lazy" style="object-fit:contain"/></a></div></div></div><div class="flex gap-3 relative !h-0 !overflow-hidden !p-0 !m-0" style="content-visibility:hidden" inert="" aria-hidden="true"><div class="flex flex-col items-center shrink-0"><div class="w-px h-[7px] bg-pk-border"></div><div class="w-3 h-3 rounded-full border-2 border-pk-gray-300 bg-pk-surface shrink-0"></div><div class="w-px flex-1 bg-pk-border"></div></div><div class="flex-1 pb-8"><span class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary">Aug 7 2026</span><p class="text-body-base font-semibold text-pk-content-primary leading-5 mt-1">July jobs report shows weakening labor market, influencing Fed expectations</p><p class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-secondary leading-5 mt-1">The July jobs report revealed a decline in nonfarm payrolls and a slight drop in unemployment, reinforcing signs of a cooling labor market and affecting market views on the Fed&#x27;s potential September decision.</p><div class="flex items-center gap-1.5 mt-3"><a href="https://primerates.com/primerate/fed-meeting-schedule/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" class="flex items-center justify-center rounded-md overflow-hidden bg-white" style="width:28px;height:28px;border:1px solid var(--color-pk-border)" data-state="closed" data-slot="tooltip-trigger"><img src="https://www.google.com/s2/favicons?domain=primerates.com&amp;sz=64" alt="PrimeRates" referrerPolicy="no-referrer" width="18" height="18" loading="lazy" style="object-fit:contain"/></a></div></div></div><div class="flex gap-3 relative !h-0 !overflow-hidden !p-0 !m-0" style="content-visibility:hidden" inert="" aria-hidden="true"><div class="flex flex-col items-center shrink-0"><div class="w-px h-[7px] bg-pk-border"></div><div class="w-3 h-3 rounded-full border-2 border-pk-gray-300 bg-pk-surface shrink-0"></div><div class="w-px flex-1 bg-pk-border"></div></div><div class="flex-1 pb-8"><span class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary">Aug 7 2026</span><p class="text-body-base font-semibold text-pk-content-primary leading-5 mt-1">US Economy Shows Strain with Job Losses and Rising Borrowing Costs Ahead of September Fed Vote</p><p class="flex items-center gap-1 text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary mt-0.5"><span>25 bps increase<!-- --> <!-- -->jumps to<!-- --> <!-- -->35<!-- -->%</span><span class="inline-flex items-center gap-0.5 font-semibold text-pk-content-accent-green"><svg width="8" height="8" viewBox="0 0 12 12" fill="none" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><path d="M6.51952 2.5C6.28858 2.1 5.71123 2.1 5.48029 2.5L1.84298 8.8C1.61204 9.2 1.90072 9.7 2.3626 9.7L9.63721 9.7C10.0991 9.7 10.3878 9.2 10.1568 8.8L6.51952 2.5Z" fill="currentColor"></path></svg>7<!-- -->%</span></p><p class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-secondary leading-5 mt-1">Reports of 23,000 jobs lost in July and rising mortgage rates heightened market uncertainty ahead of the September FOMC meeting, briefly increasing expectations for a 25 bps rate hike, reflected in a temporary price rise for that outcome.</p><div class="flex items-center gap-1.5 mt-3"><a href="https://www.live-feeds.com/feed/the-federal-reserve-faces-a-critical-decision-on-interest-rates" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" class="flex items-center justify-center rounded-md overflow-hidden bg-white" style="width:28px;height:28px;border:1px solid var(--color-pk-border)" data-state="closed" data-slot="tooltip-trigger"><img src="https://www.google.com/s2/favicons?domain=www.live-feeds.com&amp;sz=64" alt="Live Feeds" referrerPolicy="no-referrer" width="18" height="18" loading="lazy" style="object-fit:contain"/></a></div></div></div><div class="flex gap-3 relative !h-0 !overflow-hidden !p-0 !m-0" style="content-visibility:hidden" inert="" aria-hidden="true"><div class="flex flex-col items-center shrink-0"><div class="w-px h-[7px] bg-pk-border"></div><div class="w-3 h-3 rounded-full border-2 border-pk-gray-300 bg-pk-surface shrink-0"></div><div class="w-px flex-1 bg-pk-border"></div></div><div class="flex-1 pb-8"><span class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary">Aug 7 2026</span><p class="text-body-base font-semibold text-pk-content-primary leading-5 mt-1">US Federal Reserve reaffirms hold on rates amid Middle East conflict and inflation concerns</p><p class="flex items-center gap-1 text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary mt-0.5"><span>No change<!-- --> <!-- -->jumps to<!-- --> <!-- -->71<!-- -->%</span><span class="inline-flex items-center gap-0.5 font-semibold text-pk-content-accent-green"><svg width="8" height="8" viewBox="0 0 12 12" fill="none" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><path d="M6.51952 2.5C6.28858 2.1 5.71123 2.1 5.48029 2.5L1.84298 8.8C1.61204 9.2 1.90072 9.7 2.3626 9.7L9.63721 9.7C10.0991 9.7 10.3878 9.2 10.1568 8.8L6.51952 2.5Z" fill="currentColor"></path></svg>8<!-- -->%</span></p><p class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-secondary leading-5 mt-1">In early August, the Federal Reserve reiterated its stance to keep rates steady due to ongoing elevated inflation driven by supply shocks, including energy prices linked to the Middle East conflict. The Fed emphasized its commitment to price stability while acknowledging solid economic growth and labor market conditions.</p><div class="flex items-center gap-1.5 mt-3"><a href="https://www.foxbusiness.com/economy/federal-reserve-interest-rate-decision-july-29-2026" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" class="flex items-center justify-center rounded-md overflow-hidden bg-white" style="width:28px;height:28px;border:1px solid var(--color-pk-border)" data-state="closed" data-slot="tooltip-trigger"><img src="https://www.google.com/s2/favicons?domain=www.foxbusiness.com&amp;sz=64" alt="Fox Business" referrerPolicy="no-referrer" width="18" height="18" loading="lazy" style="object-fit:contain"/></a><a href="https://www.ahmedabadmirror.com/us-federal-reserve-holds-int-rates-steady/81918754.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" class="flex items-center justify-center rounded-md overflow-hidden bg-white" style="width:28px;height:28px;border:1px solid var(--color-pk-border)" data-state="closed" data-slot="tooltip-trigger"><img src="https://www.google.com/s2/favicons?domain=www.ahmedabadmirror.com&amp;sz=64" alt="Ahmedabad Mirror" referrerPolicy="no-referrer" width="18" height="18" loading="lazy" style="object-fit:contain"/></a></div></div></div><div class="flex gap-3 relative !h-0 !overflow-hidden !p-0 !m-0" style="content-visibility:hidden" inert="" aria-hidden="true"><div class="flex flex-col items-center shrink-0"><div class="w-px h-[7px] bg-pk-border"></div><div class="w-3 h-3 rounded-full border-2 border-pk-gray-300 bg-pk-surface shrink-0"></div><div class="w-px flex-1 bg-pk-border"></div></div><div class="flex-1 pb-8"><span class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary">Aug 6 2026</span><p class="text-body-base font-semibold text-pk-content-primary leading-5 mt-1">US Economy Shows Signs of Strain Amid Rising Borrowing Costs and Job Losses</p><p class="flex items-center gap-1 text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary mt-0.5"><span>25 bps increase<!-- --> <!-- -->plunges to<!-- --> <!-- -->25<!-- -->%</span><span class="inline-flex items-center gap-0.5 font-semibold text-pk-content-accent-red"><svg width="8" height="8" viewBox="0 0 12 12" fill="none" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><path d="M6.51952 9.5C6.28858 9.9 5.71123 9.9 5.48029 9.5L1.84298 3.2C1.61204 2.8 1.90072 2.3 2.3626 2.3L9.63721 2.3C10.0991 2.3 10.3878 2.8 10.1568 3.2L6.51952 9.5Z" fill="currentColor"></path></svg>20<!-- -->%</span></p><p class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-secondary leading-5 mt-1">In early August, reports indicated 23,000 jobs lost in July and rising mortgage rates near 6.69%, highlighting economic strain. These developments increased market anticipation of a Fed rate hike in September to combat inflation and stabilize the economy.</p><div class="flex items-center gap-1.5 mt-3"><a href="https://www.thetechedvocate.org/unveiling-the-dire-reality-why-your-wallet-faces-a-double-whammy-in-august-2026/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" class="flex items-center justify-center rounded-md overflow-hidden bg-white" style="width:28px;height:28px;border:1px solid var(--color-pk-border)" data-state="closed" data-slot="tooltip-trigger"><img src="https://www.google.com/s2/favicons?domain=www.thetechedvocate.org&amp;sz=64" alt="The Techedvocate" referrerPolicy="no-referrer" width="18" height="18" loading="lazy" style="object-fit:contain"/></a></div></div></div><div class="flex gap-3 relative !h-0 !overflow-hidden !p-0 !m-0" style="content-visibility:hidden" inert="" aria-hidden="true"><div class="flex flex-col items-center shrink-0"><div class="w-px h-[7px] bg-pk-border"></div><div class="w-3 h-3 rounded-full border-2 border-pk-gray-300 bg-pk-surface shrink-0"></div><div class="w-px flex-1 bg-pk-border"></div></div><div class="flex-1 pb-8"><span class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary">Aug 6 2026</span><p class="text-body-base font-semibold text-pk-content-primary leading-5 mt-1">Federal Reserve reiterates commitment to price stability amid elevated inflation and global uncertainty</p><p class="flex items-center gap-1 text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary mt-0.5"><span>No change<!-- --> <!-- -->jumps to<!-- --> <!-- -->71<!-- -->%</span><span class="inline-flex items-center gap-0.5 font-semibold text-pk-content-accent-green"><svg width="8" height="8" viewBox="0 0 12 12" fill="none" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><path d="M6.51952 2.5C6.28858 2.1 5.71123 2.1 5.48029 2.5L1.84298 8.8C1.61204 9.2 1.90072 9.7 2.3626 9.7L9.63721 9.7C10.0991 9.7 10.3878 9.2 10.1568 8.8L6.51952 2.5Z" fill="currentColor"></path></svg>8<!-- -->%</span></p><p class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-secondary leading-5 mt-1">On August 6, the Fed reaffirmed its stance to maintain rates steady at 3.50%-3.75% citing solid economic growth despite inflationary pressures from energy prices and geopolitical risks, supporting market expectations of no immediate change but potential hikes later in the year.</p><div class="flex items-center gap-1.5 mt-3"><a href="https://www.ahmedabadmirror.com/us-federal-reserve-holds-int-rates-steady/81918754.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" class="flex items-center justify-center rounded-md overflow-hidden bg-white" style="width:28px;height:28px;border:1px solid var(--color-pk-border)" data-state="closed" data-slot="tooltip-trigger"><img src="https://www.google.com/s2/favicons?domain=www.ahmedabadmirror.com&amp;sz=64" alt="Ahmedabad Mirror" referrerPolicy="no-referrer" width="18" height="18" loading="lazy" style="object-fit:contain"/></a></div></div></div><div class="flex gap-3 relative !h-0 !overflow-hidden !p-0 !m-0" style="content-visibility:hidden" inert="" aria-hidden="true"><div class="flex flex-col items-center shrink-0"><div class="w-px h-[7px] bg-pk-border"></div><div class="w-3 h-3 rounded-full border-2 border-pk-gray-300 bg-pk-surface shrink-0"></div><div class="w-px flex-1 bg-pk-border"></div></div><div class="flex-1 pb-8"><span class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary">Aug 6 2026</span><p class="text-body-base font-semibold text-pk-content-primary leading-5 mt-1">US mortgage rates rise to 6.69% amid economic strain and inflation concerns</p><p class="flex items-center gap-1 text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary mt-0.5"><span>25 bps increase<!-- --> <!-- -->rises to<!-- --> <!-- -->31<!-- -->%</span><span class="inline-flex items-center gap-0.5 font-semibold text-pk-content-accent-green"><svg width="8" height="8" viewBox="0 0 12 12" fill="none" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><path d="M6.51952 2.5C6.28858 2.1 5.71123 2.1 5.48029 2.5L1.84298 8.8C1.61204 9.2 1.90072 9.7 2.3626 9.7L9.63721 9.7C10.0991 9.7 10.3878 9.2 10.1568 8.8L6.51952 2.5Z" fill="currentColor"></path></svg>1<!-- -->%</span></p><p class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-secondary leading-5 mt-1">Mortgage rates climbed to 6.69% as of early August 2026, reflecting ongoing inflationary pressures and economic strain including job losses. This environment contributed to market expectations of a Fed rate hike in September to combat inflation.</p><div class="flex items-center gap-1.5 mt-3"><a href="https://www.thetechedvocate.org/unveiling-the-dire-reality-why-your-wallet-faces-a-double-whammy-in-august-2026/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" class="flex items-center justify-center rounded-md overflow-hidden bg-white" style="width:28px;height:28px;border:1px solid var(--color-pk-border)" data-state="closed" data-slot="tooltip-trigger"><img src="https://www.google.com/s2/favicons?domain=www.thetechedvocate.org&amp;sz=64" alt="The Techedvocate" referrerPolicy="no-referrer" width="18" height="18" loading="lazy" style="object-fit:contain"/></a></div></div></div><div class="flex gap-3 relative !h-0 !overflow-hidden !p-0 !m-0" style="content-visibility:hidden" inert="" aria-hidden="true"><div class="flex flex-col items-center shrink-0"><div class="w-px h-[7px] bg-pk-border"></div><div class="w-3 h-3 rounded-full border-2 border-pk-gray-300 bg-pk-surface shrink-0"></div><div class="w-px flex-1 bg-pk-border"></div></div><div class="flex-1 pb-8"><span class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary">Aug 6 2026</span><p class="text-body-base font-semibold text-pk-content-primary leading-5 mt-1">Federal Reserve Maintains Interest Rates Amid Elevated Inflation and Economic Growth</p><p class="flex items-center gap-1 text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary mt-0.5"><span>No change<!-- --> <!-- -->surges to<!-- --> <!-- -->56<!-- -->%</span><span class="inline-flex items-center gap-0.5 font-semibold text-pk-content-accent-green"><svg width="8" height="8" viewBox="0 0 12 12" fill="none" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><path d="M6.51952 2.5C6.28858 2.1 5.71123 2.1 5.48029 2.5L1.84298 8.8C1.61204 9.2 1.90072 9.7 2.3626 9.7L9.63721 9.7C10.0991 9.7 10.3878 9.2 10.1568 8.8L6.51952 2.5Z" fill="currentColor"></path></svg>17<!-- -->%</span></p><p class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-secondary leading-5 mt-1">The Fed kept the benchmark interest rate unchanged at 3.50%-3.75% in early August, citing solid economic growth despite global uncertainty and persistent inflationary pressures, partly due to the Middle East conflict. The decision was supported by a 9-3 vote, with dissenters favoring a rate hike due to inflation concerns.</p><div class="flex items-center gap-1.5 mt-3"><a href="https://www.ahmedabadmirror.com/us-federal-reserve-holds-int-rates-steady/81918754.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" class="flex items-center justify-center rounded-md overflow-hidden bg-white" style="width:28px;height:28px;border:1px solid var(--color-pk-border)" data-state="closed" data-slot="tooltip-trigger"><img src="https://www.google.com/s2/favicons?domain=www.ahmedabadmirror.com&amp;sz=64" alt="Ahmedabad Mirror" referrerPolicy="no-referrer" width="18" height="18" loading="lazy" style="object-fit:contain"/></a></div></div></div><div class="flex gap-3 relative !h-0 !overflow-hidden !p-0 !m-0" style="content-visibility:hidden" inert="" aria-hidden="true"><div class="flex flex-col items-center shrink-0"><div class="w-px h-[7px] bg-pk-border"></div><div class="w-3 h-3 rounded-full border-2 border-pk-gray-300 bg-pk-surface shrink-0"></div><div class="w-px flex-1 bg-pk-border"></div></div><div class="flex-1 pb-8"><span class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary">Aug 6 2026</span><p class="text-body-base font-semibold text-pk-content-primary leading-5 mt-1">Rising Inflation and Geopolitical Risks Keep Fed Rate Hike Expectations High Ahead of September</p><p class="flex items-center gap-1 text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary mt-0.5"><span>25 bps increase<!-- --> <!-- -->surges to<!-- --> <!-- -->53<!-- -->%</span><span class="inline-flex items-center gap-0.5 font-semibold text-pk-content-accent-green"><svg width="8" height="8" viewBox="0 0 12 12" fill="none" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><path d="M6.51952 2.5C6.28858 2.1 5.71123 2.1 5.48029 2.5L1.84298 8.8C1.61204 9.2 1.90072 9.7 2.3626 9.7L9.63721 9.7C10.0991 9.7 10.3878 9.2 10.1568 8.8L6.51952 2.5Z" fill="currentColor"></path></svg>25<!-- -->%</span></p><p class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-secondary leading-5 mt-1">In August 2026, despite no FOMC meeting, ongoing inflation concerns driven by elevated energy prices and geopolitical tensions, particularly the Middle East conflict, maintained market anticipation of a rate hike at the September meeting. Economic data releases and Fed communications during this period reinforced expectations for tightening monetary policy.</p><div class="flex items-center gap-1.5 mt-3"><a href="https://www.reuters.com/business/fed-officials-mull-raising-rates-curb-growing-inflation-risk-2026-05-29/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" class="flex items-center justify-center rounded-md overflow-hidden bg-white" style="width:28px;height:28px;border:1px solid var(--color-pk-border)" data-state="closed" data-slot="tooltip-trigger"><img src="https://www.google.com/s2/favicons?domain=www.reuters.com&amp;sz=64" alt="Reuters" referrerPolicy="no-referrer" width="18" height="18" loading="lazy" style="object-fit:contain"/></a><a href="https://emergencyfundcalculator.com/fed-interest-rate-decision-august-2026/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" class="flex items-center justify-center rounded-md overflow-hidden bg-white" style="width:28px;height:28px;border:1px solid var(--color-pk-border)" data-state="closed" data-slot="tooltip-trigger"><img src="https://www.google.com/s2/favicons?domain=emergencyfundcalculator.com&amp;sz=64" alt="Emergency Fund Calculator" referrerPolicy="no-referrer" width="18" height="18" loading="lazy" style="object-fit:contain"/></a></div></div></div><div class="flex gap-3 relative !h-0 !overflow-hidden !p-0 !m-0" style="content-visibility:hidden" inert="" aria-hidden="true"><div class="flex flex-col items-center shrink-0"><div class="w-px h-[7px] bg-pk-border"></div><div class="w-3 h-3 rounded-full border-2 border-pk-gray-300 bg-pk-surface shrink-0"></div><div class="w-px flex-1 bg-pk-border"></div></div><div class="flex-1 pb-8"><span class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary">Aug 6 2026</span><p class="text-body-base font-semibold text-pk-content-primary leading-5 mt-1">US economy shows resilience with steady job gains amid inflation concerns</p><p class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-secondary leading-5 mt-1">On August 6, 2026, reports indicated solid job gains and stable unemployment despite inflation remaining above target, supporting the Fed&#x27;s cautious approach to monetary policy. This economic backdrop maintained market expectations for a possible rate hike in September rather than cuts or no change.</p><div class="flex items-center gap-1.5 mt-3"><a href="https://www.welchforbes.com/insights/economic-outlook-july-2026/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" class="flex items-center justify-center rounded-md overflow-hidden bg-white" style="width:28px;height:28px;border:1px solid var(--color-pk-border)" data-state="closed" data-slot="tooltip-trigger"><img src="https://www.google.com/s2/favicons?domain=www.welchforbes.com&amp;sz=64" alt="Welch &amp; Forbes" referrerPolicy="no-referrer" width="18" height="18" loading="lazy" style="object-fit:contain"/></a></div></div></div><div class="flex gap-3 relative !h-0 !overflow-hidden !p-0 !m-0" style="content-visibility:hidden" inert="" aria-hidden="true"><div class="flex flex-col items-center shrink-0"><div class="w-px h-[7px] bg-pk-border"></div><div class="w-3 h-3 rounded-full border-2 border-pk-gray-300 bg-pk-surface shrink-0"></div><div class="w-px flex-1 bg-pk-border"></div></div><div class="flex-1 pb-8"><span class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary">Aug 6 2026</span><p class="text-body-base font-semibold text-pk-content-primary leading-5 mt-1">US Federal Reserve holds interest rates steady amid persistent inflation and geopolitical tensions</p><p class="flex items-center gap-1 text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary mt-0.5"><span>No change<!-- --> <!-- -->surges to<!-- --> <!-- -->74<!-- -->%</span><span class="inline-flex items-center gap-0.5 font-semibold text-pk-content-accent-green"><svg width="8" height="8" viewBox="0 0 12 12" fill="none" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><path d="M6.51952 2.5C6.28858 2.1 5.71123 2.1 5.48029 2.5L1.84298 8.8C1.61204 9.2 1.90072 9.7 2.3626 9.7L9.63721 9.7C10.0991 9.7 10.3878 9.2 10.1568 8.8L6.51952 2.5Z" fill="currentColor"></path></svg>18<!-- -->%</span></p><p class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-secondary leading-5 mt-1">The Federal Reserve maintained the federal funds rate at 3.50%-3.75% in early August, citing solid economic growth despite elevated inflation and uncertainty from the Middle East conflict. The decision supported the view that rates would remain higher for longer, sustaining market expectations for a possible September hike.</p><div class="flex items-center gap-1.5 mt-3"><a href="https://www.ahmedabadmirror.com/us-federal-reserve-holds-int-rates-steady/81918754.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" class="flex items-center justify-center rounded-md overflow-hidden bg-white" style="width:28px;height:28px;border:1px solid var(--color-pk-border)" data-state="closed" data-slot="tooltip-trigger"><img src="https://www.google.com/s2/favicons?domain=www.ahmedabadmirror.com&amp;sz=64" alt="Ahmedabad Mirror" referrerPolicy="no-referrer" width="18" height="18" loading="lazy" style="object-fit:contain"/></a><a href="https://www.live-feeds.com/feed/the-federal-reserve-faces-a-critical-decision-on-interest-rates" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" class="flex items-center justify-center rounded-md overflow-hidden bg-white" style="width:28px;height:28px;border:1px solid var(--color-pk-border)" data-state="closed" data-slot="tooltip-trigger"><img src="https://www.google.com/s2/favicons?domain=www.live-feeds.com&amp;sz=64" alt="Live Feeds" referrerPolicy="no-referrer" width="18" height="18" loading="lazy" style="object-fit:contain"/></a></div></div></div><div class="flex gap-3 relative !h-0 !overflow-hidden !p-0 !m-0" style="content-visibility:hidden" inert="" aria-hidden="true"><div class="flex flex-col items-center shrink-0"><div class="w-px h-[7px] bg-pk-border"></div><div class="w-3 h-3 rounded-full border-2 border-pk-gray-300 bg-pk-surface shrink-0"></div><div class="w-px flex-1 bg-pk-border"></div></div><div class="flex-1 pb-8"><span class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary">Aug 6 2026</span><p class="text-body-base font-semibold text-pk-content-primary leading-5 mt-1">US economy shows strain with job losses and rising borrowing costs ahead of September Fed meeting</p><p class="flex items-center gap-1 text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary mt-0.5"><span>25 bps increase<!-- --> <!-- -->rises to<!-- --> <!-- -->32<!-- -->%</span><span class="inline-flex items-center gap-0.5 font-semibold text-pk-content-accent-green"><svg width="8" height="8" viewBox="0 0 12 12" fill="none" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><path d="M6.51952 2.5C6.28858 2.1 5.71123 2.1 5.48029 2.5L1.84298 8.8C1.61204 9.2 1.90072 9.7 2.3626 9.7L9.63721 9.7C10.0991 9.7 10.3878 9.2 10.1568 8.8L6.51952 2.5Z" fill="currentColor"></path></svg>4<!-- -->%</span></p><p class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-secondary leading-5 mt-1">In early August, reports indicated 23,000 jobs lost in July and rising mortgage rates near 6.69%, signaling economic strain. These developments heightened market anticipation of a September rate hike by the Federal Reserve, as inflation remained elevated and geopolitical tensions persisted, influencing market expectations for tightening monetary policy.</p><div class="flex items-center gap-1.5 mt-3"><a href="https://www.thetechedvocate.org/unveiling-the-dire-reality-why-your-wallet-faces-a-double-whammy-in-august-2026/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" class="flex items-center justify-center rounded-md overflow-hidden bg-white" style="width:28px;height:28px;border:1px solid var(--color-pk-border)" data-state="closed" data-slot="tooltip-trigger"><img src="https://www.google.com/s2/favicons?domain=www.thetechedvocate.org&amp;sz=64" alt="The Techedvocate" referrerPolicy="no-referrer" width="18" height="18" loading="lazy" style="object-fit:contain"/></a></div></div></div><div class="flex gap-3 relative !h-0 !overflow-hidden !p-0 !m-0" style="content-visibility:hidden" inert="" aria-hidden="true"><div class="flex flex-col items-center shrink-0"><div class="w-px h-[7px] bg-pk-border"></div><div class="w-3 h-3 rounded-full border-2 border-pk-gray-300 bg-pk-surface shrink-0"></div><div class="w-px flex-1 bg-pk-border"></div></div><div class="flex-1 pb-8"><span class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary">Aug 6 2026</span><p class="text-body-base font-semibold text-pk-content-primary leading-5 mt-1">US economy shows signs of strain with job losses and rising borrowing costs</p><p class="flex items-center gap-1 text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary mt-0.5"><span>No change<!-- --> <!-- -->surges to<!-- --> <!-- -->55<!-- -->%</span><span class="inline-flex items-center gap-0.5 font-semibold text-pk-content-accent-green"><svg width="8" height="8" viewBox="0 0 12 12" fill="none" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><path d="M6.51952 2.5C6.28858 2.1 5.71123 2.1 5.48029 2.5L1.84298 8.8C1.61204 9.2 1.90072 9.7 2.3626 9.7L9.63721 9.7C10.0991 9.7 10.3878 9.2 10.1568 8.8L6.51952 2.5Z" fill="currentColor"></path></svg>16<!-- -->%</span></p><p class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-secondary leading-5 mt-1">Reports of 23,000 jobs lost in July and higher mortgage rates raised concerns about economic growth, influencing market sentiment ahead of the September Fed meeting. These factors supported expectations that the Fed would likely keep rates steady to monitor economic conditions.</p><div class="flex items-center gap-1.5 mt-3"><a href="https://www.live-feeds.com/feed/the-federal-reserve-faces-a-critical-decision-on-interest-rates" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" class="flex items-center justify-center rounded-md overflow-hidden bg-white" style="width:28px;height:28px;border:1px solid var(--color-pk-border)" data-state="closed" data-slot="tooltip-trigger"><img src="https://www.google.com/s2/favicons?domain=www.live-feeds.com&amp;sz=64" alt="Live Feed" referrerPolicy="no-referrer" width="18" height="18" loading="lazy" style="object-fit:contain"/></a></div></div></div><div class="flex gap-3 relative !h-0 !overflow-hidden !p-0 !m-0" style="content-visibility:hidden" inert="" aria-hidden="true"><div class="flex flex-col items-center shrink-0"><div class="w-px h-[7px] bg-pk-border"></div><div class="w-3 h-3 rounded-full border-2 border-pk-gray-300 bg-pk-surface shrink-0"></div><div class="w-px flex-1 bg-pk-border"></div></div><div class="flex-1 pb-8"><span class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary">Aug 6 2026</span><p class="text-body-base font-semibold text-pk-content-primary leading-5 mt-1">Federal Reserve holds interest rates steady at 3.5%-3.75%</p><p class="flex items-center gap-1 text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary mt-0.5"><span>No change<!-- --> <!-- -->jumps to<!-- --> <!-- -->61<!-- -->%</span><span class="inline-flex items-center gap-0.5 font-semibold text-pk-content-accent-green"><svg width="8" height="8" viewBox="0 0 12 12" fill="none" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><path d="M6.51952 2.5C6.28858 2.1 5.71123 2.1 5.48029 2.5L1.84298 8.8C1.61204 9.2 1.90072 9.7 2.3626 9.7L9.63721 9.7C10.0991 9.7 10.3878 9.2 10.1568 8.8L6.51952 2.5Z" fill="currentColor"></path></svg>12<!-- -->%</span></p><p class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-secondary leading-5 mt-1">On August 5, the Federal Reserve maintained its benchmark interest rate unchanged, citing solid economic growth despite inflation remaining above target and geopolitical uncertainty from the Middle East conflict. This reinforced market expectations for a potential September rate hike.</p><div class="flex items-center gap-1.5 mt-3"><a href="https://www.ahmedabadmirror.com/us-federal-reserve-holds-int-rates-steady/81918754.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" class="flex items-center justify-center rounded-md overflow-hidden bg-white" style="width:28px;height:28px;border:1px solid var(--color-pk-border)" data-state="closed" data-slot="tooltip-trigger"><img src="https://www.google.com/s2/favicons?domain=www.ahmedabadmirror.com&amp;sz=64" alt="Ahmedabad Mirror" referrerPolicy="no-referrer" width="18" height="18" loading="lazy" style="object-fit:contain"/></a></div></div></div><div class="flex gap-3 relative !h-0 !overflow-hidden !p-0 !m-0" style="content-visibility:hidden" inert="" aria-hidden="true"><div class="flex flex-col items-center shrink-0"><div class="w-px h-[7px] bg-pk-border"></div><div class="w-3 h-3 rounded-full border-2 border-pk-gray-300 bg-pk-surface shrink-0"></div><div class="w-px flex-1 bg-pk-border"></div></div><div class="flex-1 pb-8"><span class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary">Aug 6 2026</span><p class="text-body-base font-semibold text-pk-content-primary leading-5 mt-1">Softening labor market and high mortgage rates weigh on economy ahead of September Fed meeting</p><p class="flex items-center gap-1 text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary mt-0.5"><span>No change<!-- --> <!-- -->rises to<!-- --> <!-- -->54<!-- -->%</span><span class="inline-flex items-center gap-0.5 font-semibold text-pk-content-accent-green"><svg width="8" height="8" viewBox="0 0 12 12" fill="none" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><path d="M6.51952 2.5C6.28858 2.1 5.71123 2.1 5.48029 2.5L1.84298 8.8C1.61204 9.2 1.90072 9.7 2.3626 9.7L9.63721 9.7C10.0991 9.7 10.3878 9.2 10.1568 8.8L6.51952 2.5Z" fill="currentColor"></path></svg>4<!-- -->%</span></p><p class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-secondary leading-5 mt-1">July jobs data showed 23,000 jobs lost and mortgage rates remained high at 6.69%, raising concerns about economic strain. These developments influenced market expectations for the Fed&#x27;s September decision, with inflation and geopolitical risks still in focus.</p><div class="flex items-center gap-1.5 mt-3"><a href="https://www.live-feeds.com/feed/the-federal-reserve-faces-a-critical-decision-on-interest-rates" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" class="flex items-center justify-center rounded-md overflow-hidden bg-white" style="width:28px;height:28px;border:1px solid var(--color-pk-border)" data-state="closed" data-slot="tooltip-trigger"><img src="https://www.google.com/s2/favicons?domain=www.live-feeds.com&amp;sz=64" alt="Live Feeds" referrerPolicy="no-referrer" width="18" height="18" loading="lazy" style="object-fit:contain"/></a></div></div></div><div class="flex gap-3 relative !h-0 !overflow-hidden !p-0 !m-0" style="content-visibility:hidden" inert="" aria-hidden="true"><div class="flex flex-col items-center shrink-0"><div class="w-px h-[7px] bg-pk-border"></div><div class="w-3 h-3 rounded-full border-2 border-pk-gray-300 bg-pk-surface shrink-0"></div><div class="w-px flex-1 bg-pk-border"></div></div><div class="flex-1 pb-8"><span class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary">Aug 5 2026</span><p class="text-body-base font-semibold text-pk-content-primary leading-5 mt-1">Fed Governor Lisa Cook delivers speech on economic outlook</p><p class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-secondary leading-5 mt-1">Governor Lisa Cook&#x27;s speech on August 5 provided insights into the economic outlook, reinforcing the Fed&#x27;s cautious approach amid inflation and geopolitical risks. Such communications contributed to market reassessment of the Fed&#x27;s policy path, supporting expectations of a possible September rate increase.</p><div class="flex items-center gap-1.5 mt-3"><a href="https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/cook20260805a.htm" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" class="flex items-center justify-center rounded-md overflow-hidden bg-white" style="width:28px;height:28px;border:1px solid var(--color-pk-border)" data-state="closed" data-slot="tooltip-trigger"><img src="https://www.google.com/s2/favicons?domain=www.federalreserve.gov&amp;sz=64" alt="Federal Reserve Board" referrerPolicy="no-referrer" width="18" height="18" loading="lazy" style="object-fit:contain"/></a></div></div></div><div class="flex gap-3 relative !h-0 !overflow-hidden !p-0 !m-0" style="content-visibility:hidden" inert="" aria-hidden="true"><div class="flex flex-col items-center shrink-0"><div class="w-px h-[7px] bg-pk-border"></div><div class="w-3 h-3 rounded-full border-2 border-pk-gray-300 bg-pk-surface shrink-0"></div><div class="w-px flex-1 bg-pk-border"></div></div><div class="flex-1 pb-8"><span class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary">Aug 5 2026</span><p class="text-body-base font-semibold text-pk-content-primary leading-5 mt-1">US Federal Reserve holds interest rates steady at 3.5–3.75% amid inflation and global uncertainty</p><p class="flex items-center gap-1 text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary mt-0.5"><span>No change<!-- --> <!-- -->surges to<!-- --> <!-- -->63<!-- -->%</span><span class="inline-flex items-center gap-0.5 font-semibold text-pk-content-accent-green"><svg width="8" height="8" viewBox="0 0 12 12" fill="none" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><path d="M6.51952 2.5C6.28858 2.1 5.71123 2.1 5.48029 2.5L1.84298 8.8C1.61204 9.2 1.90072 9.7 2.3626 9.7L9.63721 9.7C10.0991 9.7 10.3878 9.2 10.1568 8.8L6.51952 2.5Z" fill="currentColor"></path></svg>18<!-- -->%</span></p><p class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-secondary leading-5 mt-1">On August 5, the Federal Reserve maintained its benchmark interest rate unchanged at 3.5–3.75%, emphasizing the economy&#x27;s solid growth despite inflation remaining above target and geopolitical tensions, including the Middle East conflict. The decision was supported by a 9-3 vote, with dissenters advocating for a rate hike due to inflation concerns.</p><div class="flex items-center gap-1.5 mt-3"><a href="https://www.ahmedabadmirror.com/us-federal-reserve-holds-int-rates-steady/81918754.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" class="flex items-center justify-center rounded-md overflow-hidden bg-white" style="width:28px;height:28px;border:1px solid var(--color-pk-border)" data-state="closed" data-slot="tooltip-trigger"><img src="https://www.google.com/s2/favicons?domain=www.ahmedabadmirror.com&amp;sz=64" alt="Ahmedabad Mirror" referrerPolicy="no-referrer" width="18" height="18" loading="lazy" style="object-fit:contain"/></a></div></div></div><div class="flex gap-3 relative !h-0 !overflow-hidden !p-0 !m-0" style="content-visibility:hidden" inert="" aria-hidden="true"><div class="flex flex-col items-center shrink-0"><div class="w-px h-[7px] bg-pk-border"></div><div class="w-3 h-3 rounded-full border-2 border-pk-gray-300 bg-pk-surface shrink-0"></div><div class="w-px flex-1 bg-pk-border"></div></div><div class="flex-1 pb-8"><span class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary">Aug 5 2026</span><p class="text-body-base font-semibold text-pk-content-primary leading-5 mt-1">Federal Reserve holds rates steady in July amid inflation concerns</p><p class="flex items-center gap-1 text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary mt-0.5"><span>No change<!-- --> <!-- -->rises to<!-- --> <!-- -->52<!-- -->%</span><span class="inline-flex items-center gap-0.5 font-semibold text-pk-content-accent-green"><svg width="8" height="8" viewBox="0 0 12 12" fill="none" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><path d="M6.51952 2.5C6.28858 2.1 5.71123 2.1 5.48029 2.5L1.84298 8.8C1.61204 9.2 1.90072 9.7 2.3626 9.7L9.63721 9.7C10.0991 9.7 10.3878 9.2 10.1568 8.8L6.51952 2.5Z" fill="currentColor"></path></svg>4<!-- -->%</span></p><p class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-secondary leading-5 mt-1">Following the July FOMC meeting, the Fed maintained the federal funds rate at 3.5%-3.75%, assessing inflation trends and economic outlook. The decision reflected a cautious approach with inflation still above the 2% goal and a stable labor market.</p><div class="flex items-center gap-1.5 mt-3"><a href="https://invested.mdm.ca/divided-fed-stays-the-course-as-inflation-remains-above-target/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" class="flex items-center justify-center rounded-md overflow-hidden bg-white" style="width:28px;height:28px;border:1px solid var(--color-pk-border)" data-state="closed" data-slot="tooltip-trigger"><img src="https://www.google.com/s2/favicons?domain=invested.mdm.ca&amp;sz=64" alt="Invested MD" referrerPolicy="no-referrer" width="18" height="18" loading="lazy" style="object-fit:contain"/></a></div></div></div><div class="flex gap-3 relative !h-0 !overflow-hidden !p-0 !m-0" style="content-visibility:hidden" inert="" aria-hidden="true"><div class="flex flex-col items-center shrink-0"><div class="w-px h-[7px] bg-pk-border"></div><div class="w-3 h-3 rounded-full border-2 border-pk-gray-300 bg-pk-surface shrink-0"></div><div class="w-px flex-1 bg-pk-border"></div></div><div class="flex-1 pb-8"><span class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary">Aug 5 2026</span><p class="text-body-base font-semibold text-pk-content-primary leading-5 mt-1">Fed Governor Lisa Cook discusses economic outlook amid inflation concerns</p><p class="flex items-center gap-1 text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary mt-0.5"><span>25 bps increase<!-- --> <!-- -->surges to<!-- --> <!-- -->51<!-- -->%</span><span class="inline-flex items-center gap-0.5 font-semibold text-pk-content-accent-green"><svg width="8" height="8" viewBox="0 0 12 12" fill="none" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><path d="M6.51952 2.5C6.28858 2.1 5.71123 2.1 5.48029 2.5L1.84298 8.8C1.61204 9.2 1.90072 9.7 2.3626 9.7L9.63721 9.7C10.0991 9.7 10.3878 9.2 10.1568 8.8L6.51952 2.5Z" fill="currentColor"></path></svg>18<!-- -->%</span></p><p class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-secondary leading-5 mt-1">Governor Cook&#x27;s speech highlighted ongoing inflation pressures and economic uncertainties, reinforcing market views that the Fed may need to raise rates to achieve price stability, contributing to increased expectations of a 25 bps hike in September.</p><div class="flex items-center gap-1.5 mt-3"><a href="https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/cook20260805a.htm" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" class="flex items-center justify-center rounded-md overflow-hidden bg-white" style="width:28px;height:28px;border:1px solid var(--color-pk-border)" data-state="closed" data-slot="tooltip-trigger"><img src="https://www.google.com/s2/favicons?domain=www.federalreserve.gov&amp;sz=64" alt="Federal Reserve Board" referrerPolicy="no-referrer" width="18" height="18" loading="lazy" style="object-fit:contain"/></a></div></div></div><div class="flex gap-3 relative !h-0 !overflow-hidden !p-0 !m-0" style="content-visibility:hidden" inert="" aria-hidden="true"><div class="flex flex-col items-center shrink-0"><div class="w-px h-[7px] bg-pk-border"></div><div class="w-3 h-3 rounded-full border-2 border-pk-gray-300 bg-pk-surface shrink-0"></div><div class="w-px flex-1 bg-pk-border"></div></div><div class="flex-1 pb-8"><span class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary">Aug 4 2026</span><p class="text-body-base font-semibold text-pk-content-primary leading-5 mt-1">Treasury report highlights hawkish Fed outlook amid inflation and geopolitical tensions</p><p class="flex items-center gap-1 text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary mt-0.5"><span>25 bps increase<!-- --> <!-- -->jumps to<!-- --> <!-- -->37<!-- -->%</span><span class="inline-flex items-center gap-0.5 font-semibold text-pk-content-accent-green"><svg width="8" height="8" viewBox="0 0 12 12" fill="none" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><path d="M6.51952 2.5C6.28858 2.1 5.71123 2.1 5.48029 2.5L1.84298 8.8C1.61204 9.2 1.90072 9.7 2.3626 9.7L9.63721 9.7C10.0991 9.7 10.3878 9.2 10.1568 8.8L6.51952 2.5Z" fill="currentColor"></path></svg>11<!-- -->%</span></p><p class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-secondary leading-5 mt-1">The Treasury Borrowing Advisory Committee reported a more hawkish Fed outlook with increased inflation projections and potential rate hikes, influenced by geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and elevated energy prices, contributing to market uncertainty ahead of September.</p><div class="flex items-center gap-1.5 mt-3"><a href="https://home.treasury.gov/news/press-releases/sb0591" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" class="flex items-center justify-center rounded-md overflow-hidden bg-white" style="width:28px;height:28px;border:1px solid var(--color-pk-border)" data-state="closed" data-slot="tooltip-trigger"><img src="https://www.google.com/s2/favicons?domain=home.treasury.gov&amp;sz=64" alt="home.treasury.gov" referrerPolicy="no-referrer" width="18" height="18" loading="lazy" style="object-fit:contain"/></a></div></div></div><div class="flex gap-3 relative !h-0 !overflow-hidden !p-0 !m-0" style="content-visibility:hidden" inert="" aria-hidden="true"><div class="flex flex-col items-center shrink-0"><div class="w-px h-[7px] bg-pk-border"></div><div class="w-3 h-3 rounded-full border-2 border-pk-gray-300 bg-pk-surface shrink-0"></div><div class="w-px flex-1 bg-pk-border"></div></div><div class="flex-1 pb-8"><span class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary">Aug 3 2026</span><p class="text-body-base font-semibold text-pk-content-primary leading-5 mt-1">July ISM Manufacturing Index rises to 55.6, signaling economic expansion</p><p class="flex items-center gap-1 text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary mt-0.5"><span>No change<!-- --> <!-- -->jumps to<!-- --> <!-- -->63<!-- -->%</span><span class="inline-flex items-center gap-0.5 font-semibold text-pk-content-accent-green"><svg width="8" height="8" viewBox="0 0 12 12" fill="none" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><path d="M6.51952 2.5C6.28858 2.1 5.71123 2.1 5.48029 2.5L1.84298 8.8C1.61204 9.2 1.90072 9.7 2.3626 9.7L9.63721 9.7C10.0991 9.7 10.3878 9.2 10.1568 8.8L6.51952 2.5Z" fill="currentColor"></path></svg>11<!-- -->%</span></p><p class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-secondary leading-5 mt-1">The ISM Manufacturing PMI unexpectedly increased to 55.6 in July, indicating sustained growth in the manufacturing sector. This strong data prompted markets to reassess the Fed&#x27;s policy path, reducing expectations for an immediate September hike but supporting a higher rate outlook later in 2026.</p><div class="flex items-center gap-1.5 mt-3"><a href="https://www.interactivecrypto.com/fed-funds-rate-outlook-shifts-as-july-ism-data-spurs-market-repricing-aug-2026" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" class="flex items-center justify-center rounded-md overflow-hidden bg-white" style="width:28px;height:28px;border:1px solid var(--color-pk-border)" data-state="closed" data-slot="tooltip-trigger"><img src="https://www.google.com/s2/favicons?domain=www.interactivecrypto.com&amp;sz=64" alt="Interactive Crypto" referrerPolicy="no-referrer" width="18" height="18" loading="lazy" style="object-fit:contain"/></a></div></div></div><div class="flex gap-3 relative !h-0 !overflow-hidden !p-0 !m-0" style="content-visibility:hidden" inert="" aria-hidden="true"><div class="flex flex-col items-center shrink-0"><div class="w-px h-[7px] bg-pk-border"></div><div class="w-3 h-3 rounded-full border-2 border-pk-gray-300 bg-pk-surface shrink-0"></div><div class="w-px flex-1 bg-pk-border"></div></div><div class="flex-1 pb-8"><span class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary">Aug 3 2026</span><p class="text-body-base font-semibold text-pk-content-primary leading-5 mt-1">Fed Chair Warsh&#x27;s guarded communication shakes market confidence</p><p class="flex items-center gap-1 text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary mt-0.5"><span>25 bps increase<!-- --> <!-- -->surges to<!-- --> <!-- -->45<!-- -->%</span><span class="inline-flex items-center gap-0.5 font-semibold text-pk-content-accent-green"><svg width="8" height="8" viewBox="0 0 12 12" fill="none" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><path d="M6.51952 2.5C6.28858 2.1 5.71123 2.1 5.48029 2.5L1.84298 8.8C1.61204 9.2 1.90072 9.7 2.3626 9.7L9.63721 9.7C10.0991 9.7 10.3878 9.2 10.1568 8.8L6.51952 2.5Z" fill="currentColor"></path></svg>20<!-- -->%</span></p><p class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-secondary leading-5 mt-1">Following the July meeting, Chair Warsh&#x27;s press conference was perceived as contradictory and overly confident, causing bond yields to rise sharply as investors priced in higher inflation risks and a hawkish Fed stance, boosting expectations for a September rate hike.</p><div class="flex items-center gap-1.5 mt-3"><a href="https://www.morgankenwood.com/commentary/weekly-market-commentary-august-3-2026" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" class="flex items-center justify-center rounded-md overflow-hidden bg-white" style="width:28px;height:28px;border:1px solid var(--color-pk-border)" data-state="closed" data-slot="tooltip-trigger"><img src="https://www.google.com/s2/favicons?domain=www.morgankenwood.com&amp;sz=64" alt="Morgan Kenwood Advisors" referrerPolicy="no-referrer" width="18" height="18" loading="lazy" style="object-fit:contain"/></a></div></div></div><div class="flex gap-3 relative !h-0 !overflow-hidden !p-0 !m-0" style="content-visibility:hidden" inert="" aria-hidden="true"><div class="flex flex-col items-center shrink-0"><div class="w-px h-[7px] bg-pk-border"></div><div class="w-3 h-3 rounded-full border-2 border-pk-gray-300 bg-pk-surface shrink-0"></div><div class="w-px flex-1 bg-pk-border"></div></div><div class="flex-1 pb-8"><span class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary">Aug 3 2026</span><p class="text-body-base font-semibold text-pk-content-primary leading-5 mt-1">Fed Chair Warsh&#x27;s cautious comments shake market confidence, bond yields rise</p><p class="flex items-center gap-1 text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary mt-0.5"><span>No change<!-- --> <!-- -->jumps to<!-- --> <!-- -->49<!-- -->%</span><span class="inline-flex items-center gap-0.5 font-semibold text-pk-content-accent-green"><svg width="8" height="8" viewBox="0 0 12 12" fill="none" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><path d="M6.51952 2.5C6.28858 2.1 5.71123 2.1 5.48029 2.5L1.84298 8.8C1.61204 9.2 1.90072 9.7 2.3626 9.7L9.63721 9.7C10.0991 9.7 10.3878 9.2 10.1568 8.8L6.51952 2.5Z" fill="currentColor"></path></svg>10<!-- -->%</span></p><p class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-secondary leading-5 mt-1">Following the July meeting, Chair Warsh&#x27;s guarded and somewhat contradictory remarks during the press conference led to a sell-off in bonds and a rise in Treasury yields, reflecting market skepticism about the Fed&#x27;s future rate path and reinforcing expectations of a September hike.</p><div class="flex items-center gap-1.5 mt-3"><a href="https://www.morgankenwood.com/commentary/weekly-market-commentary-august-3-2026" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" class="flex items-center justify-center rounded-md overflow-hidden bg-white" style="width:28px;height:28px;border:1px solid var(--color-pk-border)" data-state="closed" data-slot="tooltip-trigger"><img src="https://www.google.com/s2/favicons?domain=www.morgankenwood.com&amp;sz=64" alt="Morgan Kenwood Advisors" referrerPolicy="no-referrer" width="18" height="18" loading="lazy" style="object-fit:contain"/></a></div></div></div><div class="flex gap-3 relative !h-0 !overflow-hidden !p-0 !m-0" style="content-visibility:hidden" inert="" aria-hidden="true"><div class="flex flex-col items-center shrink-0"><div class="w-px h-[7px] bg-pk-border"></div><div class="w-3 h-3 rounded-full border-2 border-pk-gray-300 bg-pk-surface shrink-0"></div><div class="w-px flex-1 bg-pk-border"></div></div><div class="flex-1 pb-8"><span class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary">Aug 3 2026</span><p class="text-body-base font-semibold text-pk-content-primary leading-5 mt-1">FOMC votes 9-3 to hold rates steady amid inflation concerns</p><p class="flex items-center gap-1 text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary mt-0.5"><span>No change<!-- --> <!-- -->surges to<!-- --> <!-- -->63<!-- -->%</span><span class="inline-flex items-center gap-0.5 font-semibold text-pk-content-accent-green"><svg width="8" height="8" viewBox="0 0 12 12" fill="none" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><path d="M6.51952 2.5C6.28858 2.1 5.71123 2.1 5.48029 2.5L1.84298 8.8C1.61204 9.2 1.90072 9.7 2.3626 9.7L9.63721 9.7C10.0991 9.7 10.3878 9.2 10.1568 8.8L6.51952 2.5Z" fill="currentColor"></path></svg>20<!-- -->%</span></p><p class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-secondary leading-5 mt-1">The FOMC&#x27;s decision to hold rates steady with some dissenters voting for an increase reflected ongoing inflation worries, initially boosting confidence in no change but also increasing uncertainty about future hikes.</p><div class="flex items-center gap-1.5 mt-3"><a href="https://kingcapitaladvisors.com/market-insights/august-3rd-2026/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" class="flex items-center justify-center rounded-md overflow-hidden bg-white" style="width:28px;height:28px;border:1px solid var(--color-pk-border)" data-state="closed" data-slot="tooltip-trigger"><img src="https://www.google.com/s2/favicons?domain=kingcapitaladvisors.com&amp;sz=64" alt="King Capital Advisors" referrerPolicy="no-referrer" width="18" height="18" loading="lazy" style="object-fit:contain"/></a></div></div></div><div class="flex gap-3 relative !h-0 !overflow-hidden !p-0 !m-0" style="content-visibility:hidden" inert="" aria-hidden="true"><div class="flex flex-col items-center shrink-0"><div class="w-px h-[7px] bg-pk-border"></div><div class="w-3 h-3 rounded-full border-2 border-pk-gray-300 bg-pk-surface shrink-0"></div><div class="w-px flex-1 bg-pk-border"></div></div><div class="flex-1 pb-8"><span class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary">Aug 3 2026</span><p class="text-body-base font-semibold text-pk-content-primary leading-5 mt-1">Fed Chair Warsh’s press conference shakes market confidence, Treasury yields rise</p><p class="flex items-center gap-1 text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary mt-0.5"><span>25 bps increase<!-- --> <!-- -->jumps to<!-- --> <!-- -->37<!-- -->%</span><span class="inline-flex items-center gap-0.5 font-semibold text-pk-content-accent-green"><svg width="8" height="8" viewBox="0 0 12 12" fill="none" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><path d="M6.51952 2.5C6.28858 2.1 5.71123 2.1 5.48029 2.5L1.84298 8.8C1.61204 9.2 1.90072 9.7 2.3626 9.7L9.63721 9.7C10.0991 9.7 10.3878 9.2 10.1568 8.8L6.51952 2.5Z" fill="currentColor"></path></svg>6<!-- -->%</span></p><p class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-secondary leading-5 mt-1">After the July 29 FOMC meeting, Chair Warsh’s contradictory and confident remarks during the press conference unsettled markets, causing Treasury yields to jump to multi-year highs and increasing expectations for a September rate hike.</p><div class="flex items-center gap-1.5 mt-3"><a href="https://www.morgankenwood.com/commentary/weekly-market-commentary-august-3-2026/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" class="flex items-center justify-center rounded-md overflow-hidden bg-white" style="width:28px;height:28px;border:1px solid var(--color-pk-border)" data-state="closed" data-slot="tooltip-trigger"><img src="https://www.google.com/s2/favicons?domain=www.morgankenwood.com&amp;sz=64" alt="Morgan Kenwood Advisors" referrerPolicy="no-referrer" width="18" height="18" loading="lazy" style="object-fit:contain"/></a></div></div></div><div class="flex gap-3 relative !h-0 !overflow-hidden !p-0 !m-0" style="content-visibility:hidden" inert="" aria-hidden="true"><div class="flex flex-col items-center shrink-0"><div class="w-px h-[7px] bg-pk-border"></div><div class="w-3 h-3 rounded-full border-2 border-pk-gray-300 bg-pk-surface shrink-0"></div><div class="w-px flex-1 bg-pk-border"></div></div><div class="flex-1 pb-8"><span class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary">Aug 3 2026</span><p class="text-body-base font-semibold text-pk-content-primary leading-5 mt-1">Markets price in 72% probability of no rate change in September 2026</p><p class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-secondary leading-5 mt-1">Market data showed a strong expectation for the Fed to hold rates steady in September, reflecting uncertainty amid elevated inflation and geopolitical risks. The low probability of cuts indicated persistent inflation concerns.</p><div class="flex items-center gap-1.5 mt-3"><a href="https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/fed-rate/fed-hold-expected-in-september-2026-zero-cuts-for-year-priced-at-85-75d00d" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" class="flex items-center justify-center rounded-md overflow-hidden bg-white" style="width:28px;height:28px;border:1px solid var(--color-pk-border)" data-state="closed" data-slot="tooltip-trigger"><img src="https://www.google.com/s2/favicons?domain=simplefunctions.dev&amp;sz=64" alt="SimpleFunctions" referrerPolicy="no-referrer" width="18" height="18" loading="lazy" style="object-fit:contain"/></a></div></div></div><div class="flex gap-3 relative !h-0 !overflow-hidden !p-0 !m-0" style="content-visibility:hidden" inert="" aria-hidden="true"><div class="flex flex-col items-center shrink-0"><div class="w-px h-[7px] bg-pk-border"></div><div class="w-3 h-3 rounded-full border-2 border-pk-gray-300 bg-pk-surface shrink-0"></div><div class="w-px flex-1 bg-pk-border"></div></div><div class="flex-1 pb-8"><span class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary">Aug 3 2026</span><p class="text-body-base font-semibold text-pk-content-primary leading-5 mt-1">Market Data Shows Increased Probability of September Rate Hike</p><p class="flex items-center gap-1 text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary mt-0.5"><span>25 bps increase<!-- --> <!-- -->jumps to<!-- --> <!-- -->56<!-- -->%</span><span class="inline-flex items-center gap-0.5 font-semibold text-pk-content-accent-green"><svg width="8" height="8" viewBox="0 0 12 12" fill="none" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><path d="M6.51952 2.5C6.28858 2.1 5.71123 2.1 5.48029 2.5L1.84298 8.8C1.61204 9.2 1.90072 9.7 2.3626 9.7L9.63721 9.7C10.0991 9.7 10.3878 9.2 10.1568 8.8L6.51952 2.5Z" fill="currentColor"></path></svg>14<!-- -->%</span></p><p class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-secondary leading-5 mt-1">Following the July FOMC meeting, interest rate futures indicated a 67.2% probability of a 25 basis points hike in September, reflecting investor expectations of tightening due to persistent inflation. This market sentiment contributed to the price increase for the &#x27;25 bps increase&#x27; outcome and decline in the &#x27;No change&#x27; option.</p><div class="flex items-center gap-1.5 mt-3"><a href="https://quorumpw.com/insights/august-2026-market-update/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" class="flex items-center justify-center rounded-md overflow-hidden bg-white" style="width:28px;height:28px;border:1px solid var(--color-pk-border)" data-state="closed" data-slot="tooltip-trigger"><img src="https://www.google.com/s2/favicons?domain=quorumpw.com&amp;sz=64" alt="Quorum Private Wealth" referrerPolicy="no-referrer" width="18" height="18" loading="lazy" style="object-fit:contain"/></a></div></div></div><div class="flex gap-3 relative !h-0 !overflow-hidden !p-0 !m-0" style="content-visibility:hidden" inert="" aria-hidden="true"><div class="flex flex-col items-center shrink-0"><div class="w-px h-[7px] bg-pk-border"></div><div class="w-3 h-3 rounded-full border-2 border-pk-gray-300 bg-pk-surface shrink-0"></div><div class="w-px flex-1 bg-pk-border"></div></div><div class="flex-1 pb-8"><span class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary">Aug 2 2026</span><p class="text-body-base font-semibold text-pk-content-primary leading-5 mt-1">Federal Reserve holds interest rate at 3.75% amid DOJ criminal investigation into Chair Powell</p><p class="flex items-center gap-1 text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary mt-0.5"><span>No change<!-- --> <!-- -->surges to<!-- --> <!-- -->63<!-- -->%</span><span class="inline-flex items-center gap-0.5 font-semibold text-pk-content-accent-green"><svg width="8" height="8" viewBox="0 0 12 12" fill="none" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><path d="M6.51952 2.5C6.28858 2.1 5.71123 2.1 5.48029 2.5L1.84298 8.8C1.61204 9.2 1.90072 9.7 2.3626 9.7L9.63721 9.7C10.0991 9.7 10.3878 9.2 10.1568 8.8L6.51952 2.5Z" fill="currentColor"></path></svg>20<!-- -->%</span></p><p class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-secondary leading-5 mt-1">The Federal Reserve paused after three consecutive rate cuts, maintaining the benchmark interest rate at 3.75%. Chair Jerome Powell faced a Department of Justice criminal investigation over alleged false statements to Congress, adding political complexity but not altering the Fed&#x27;s cautious monetary policy stance.</p><div class="flex items-center gap-1.5 mt-3"><a href="https://arabpress.com/federal-reserve-holds-interest-rate-at-3-75-as-powell-faces-doj-criminal-investigation-during-2026-decision" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" class="flex items-center justify-center rounded-md overflow-hidden bg-white" style="width:28px;height:28px;border:1px solid var(--color-pk-border)" data-state="closed" data-slot="tooltip-trigger"><img src="https://www.google.com/s2/favicons?domain=arabpress.com&amp;sz=64" alt="Arab Press" referrerPolicy="no-referrer" width="18" height="18" loading="lazy" style="object-fit:contain"/></a></div></div></div><div class="flex gap-3 relative !h-0 !overflow-hidden !p-0 !m-0" style="content-visibility:hidden" inert="" aria-hidden="true"><div class="flex flex-col items-center shrink-0"><div class="w-px h-[7px] bg-pk-border"></div><div class="w-3 h-3 rounded-full border-2 border-pk-gray-300 bg-pk-surface shrink-0"></div><div class="w-px flex-1 bg-pk-border"></div></div><div class="flex-1 pb-8"><span class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary">Aug 2 2026</span><p class="text-body-base font-semibold text-pk-content-primary leading-5 mt-1">Rising Market Odds for September Rate Hike Amid Inflation and Geopolitical Concerns</p><p class="flex items-center gap-1 text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary mt-0.5"><span>25 bps increase<!-- --> <!-- -->rises to<!-- --> <!-- -->56<!-- -->%</span><span class="inline-flex items-center gap-0.5 font-semibold text-pk-content-accent-green"><svg width="8" height="8" viewBox="0 0 12 12" fill="none" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><path d="M6.51952 2.5C6.28858 2.1 5.71123 2.1 5.48029 2.5L1.84298 8.8C1.61204 9.2 1.90072 9.7 2.3626 9.7L9.63721 9.7C10.0991 9.7 10.3878 9.2 10.1568 8.8L6.51952 2.5Z" fill="currentColor"></path></svg>3<!-- -->%</span></p><p class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-secondary leading-5 mt-1">As of early August, market data indicated increasing probability of a 25 bps rate hike at the September FOMC meeting, driven by persistent inflation pressures and geopolitical tensions, particularly the Middle East conflict. This shift reflects the Fed&#x27;s hawkish stance and the market&#x27;s adjustment to a &#x27;higher for longer&#x27; interest rate environment.</p><div class="flex items-center gap-1.5 mt-3"><a href="https://intellectia.ai/blog/fed-interest-rate-decision-july-2026-analysis" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" class="flex items-center justify-center rounded-md overflow-hidden bg-white" style="width:28px;height:28px;border:1px solid var(--color-pk-border)" data-state="closed" data-slot="tooltip-trigger"><img src="https://www.google.com/s2/favicons?domain=intellectia.ai&amp;sz=64" alt="Intellectia" referrerPolicy="no-referrer" width="18" height="18" loading="lazy" style="object-fit:contain"/></a></div></div></div><div class="flex gap-3 relative !h-0 !overflow-hidden !p-0 !m-0" style="content-visibility:hidden" inert="" aria-hidden="true"><div class="flex flex-col items-center shrink-0"><div class="w-px h-[7px] bg-pk-border"></div><div class="w-3 h-3 rounded-full border-2 border-pk-gray-300 bg-pk-surface shrink-0"></div><div class="w-px flex-1 bg-pk-border"></div></div><div class="flex-1 pb-8"><span class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary">Aug 1 2026</span><p class="text-body-base font-semibold text-pk-content-primary leading-5 mt-1">Geopolitical tensions ease as U.S.-Iran hostilities pause, easing inflation concerns</p><p class="flex items-center gap-1 text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary mt-0.5"><span>No change<!-- --> <!-- -->jumps to<!-- --> <!-- -->53<!-- -->%</span><span class="inline-flex items-center gap-0.5 font-semibold text-pk-content-accent-green"><svg width="8" height="8" viewBox="0 0 12 12" fill="none" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><path d="M6.51952 2.5C6.28858 2.1 5.71123 2.1 5.48029 2.5L1.84298 8.8C1.61204 9.2 1.90072 9.7 2.3626 9.7L9.63721 9.7C10.0991 9.7 10.3878 9.2 10.1568 8.8L6.51952 2.5Z" fill="currentColor"></path></svg>14<!-- -->%</span></p><p class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-secondary leading-5 mt-1">A temporary pause in U.S.-Iran hostilities in early August 2026 led to a decline in oil prices and reduced near-term inflation fears. This development contributed to market reassessment of Fed rate hike probabilities, slightly lowering the odds of aggressive tightening.</p><div class="flex items-center gap-1.5 mt-3"><a href="https://headlinez.news/topic/federal-reserve" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" class="flex items-center justify-center rounded-md overflow-hidden bg-white" style="width:28px;height:28px;border:1px solid var(--color-pk-border)" data-state="closed" data-slot="tooltip-trigger"><img src="https://www.google.com/s2/favicons?domain=headlinez.news&amp;sz=64" alt="headlinez.news" referrerPolicy="no-referrer" width="18" height="18" loading="lazy" style="object-fit:contain"/></a></div></div></div><div class="flex gap-3 relative !h-0 !overflow-hidden !p-0 !m-0" style="content-visibility:hidden" inert="" aria-hidden="true"><div class="flex flex-col items-center shrink-0"><div class="w-px h-[7px] bg-pk-border"></div><div class="w-3 h-3 rounded-full border-2 border-pk-gray-300 bg-pk-surface shrink-0"></div><div class="w-px flex-1 bg-pk-border"></div></div><div class="flex-1 pb-8"><span class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary">Aug 1 2026</span><p class="text-body-base font-semibold text-pk-content-primary leading-5 mt-1">Markets react to Fed&#x27;s July decision and geopolitical tensions easing</p><p class="flex items-center gap-1 text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary mt-0.5"><span>No change<!-- --> <!-- -->surges to<!-- --> <!-- -->64<!-- -->%</span><span class="inline-flex items-center gap-0.5 font-semibold text-pk-content-accent-green"><svg width="8" height="8" viewBox="0 0 12 12" fill="none" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><path d="M6.51952 2.5C6.28858 2.1 5.71123 2.1 5.48029 2.5L1.84298 8.8C1.61204 9.2 1.90072 9.7 2.3626 9.7L9.63721 9.7C10.0991 9.7 10.3878 9.2 10.1568 8.8L6.51952 2.5Z" fill="currentColor"></path></svg>21<!-- -->%</span></p><p class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-secondary leading-5 mt-1">Following the July Fed decision, markets showed volatility influenced by easing U.S.-Iran hostilities and fluctuating oil prices, which affected inflation outlooks and Fed rate expectations. This contributed to price movements favoring &#x27;No change&#x27; and &#x27;25 bps increase&#x27; outcomes as investors reassessed risks.</p><div class="flex items-center gap-1.5 mt-3"><a href="https://headlinez.news/topic/federal-reserve" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" class="flex items-center justify-center rounded-md overflow-hidden bg-white" style="width:28px;height:28px;border:1px solid var(--color-pk-border)" data-state="closed" data-slot="tooltip-trigger"><img src="https://www.google.com/s2/favicons?domain=headlinez.news&amp;sz=64" alt="headlinez.news" referrerPolicy="no-referrer" width="18" height="18" loading="lazy" style="object-fit:contain"/></a></div></div></div><div class="flex gap-3 relative !h-0 !overflow-hidden !p-0 !m-0" style="content-visibility:hidden" inert="" aria-hidden="true"><div class="flex flex-col items-center shrink-0"><div class="w-px h-[7px] bg-pk-border"></div><div class="w-3 h-3 rounded-full border-2 border-pk-gray-300 bg-pk-surface shrink-0"></div><div class="w-px flex-1 bg-pk-border"></div></div><div class="flex-1 pb-8"><span class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary">Jul 29 2026</span><p class="text-body-base font-semibold text-pk-content-primary leading-5 mt-1">Federal Reserve maintains interest rates and announces five task forces</p><p class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-secondary leading-5 mt-1">At the July FOMC meeting, the Federal Reserve kept interest rates unchanged and announced the creation of five task forces to review monetary policy decision-making and communication, signaling a cautious approach amid persistent inflation and economic uncertainty.</p><div class="flex items-center gap-1.5 mt-3"><a href="https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents.htm" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" class="flex items-center justify-center rounded-md overflow-hidden bg-white" style="width:28px;height:28px;border:1px solid var(--color-pk-border)" data-state="closed" data-slot="tooltip-trigger"><img src="https://www.google.com/s2/favicons?domain=www.federalreserve.gov&amp;sz=64" alt="Federal Reserve Board" referrerPolicy="no-referrer" width="18" height="18" loading="lazy" style="object-fit:contain"/></a></div></div></div><div class="flex gap-3 relative !h-0 !overflow-hidden !p-0 !m-0" style="content-visibility:hidden" inert="" aria-hidden="true"><div class="flex flex-col items-center shrink-0"><div class="w-px h-[7px] bg-pk-border"></div><div class="w-3 h-3 rounded-full border-2 border-pk-gray-300 bg-pk-surface shrink-0"></div><div class="w-px flex-1 bg-pk-border"></div></div><div class="flex-1 pb-8"><span class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary">Jul 29 2026</span><p class="text-body-base font-semibold text-pk-content-primary leading-5 mt-1">FOMC Maintains Federal Funds Rate at 3.5%–3.75% with Hawkish Tone</p><p class="flex items-center gap-1 text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary mt-0.5"><span>No change<!-- --> <!-- -->dips to<!-- --> <!-- -->40<!-- -->%</span><span class="inline-flex items-center gap-0.5 font-semibold text-pk-content-accent-red"><svg width="8" height="8" viewBox="0 0 12 12" fill="none" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><path d="M6.51952 9.5C6.28858 9.9 5.71123 9.9 5.48029 9.5L1.84298 3.2C1.61204 2.8 1.90072 2.3 2.3626 2.3L9.63721 2.3C10.0991 2.3 10.3878 2.8 10.1568 3.2L6.51952 9.5Z" fill="currentColor"></path></svg>2<!-- -->%</span></p><p class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-secondary leading-5 mt-1">The July FOMC meeting resulted in a 9-3 vote to keep rates steady, with three dissenters favoring a 25 bps hike due to inflation concerns. The statement&#x27;s hawkish language caused some market volatility but ultimately reinforced the expectation of no change in September.</p><div class="flex items-center gap-1.5 mt-3"><a href="https://www.ahmedabadmirror.com/us-federal-reserve-holds-int-rates-steady/81918754.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" class="flex items-center justify-center rounded-md overflow-hidden bg-white" style="width:28px;height:28px;border:1px solid var(--color-pk-border)" data-state="closed" data-slot="tooltip-trigger"><img src="https://www.google.com/s2/favicons?domain=www.ahmedabadmirror.com&amp;sz=64" alt="Ahmedabad Mirror" referrerPolicy="no-referrer" width="18" height="18" loading="lazy" style="object-fit:contain"/></a></div></div></div><div class="flex gap-3 relative !h-0 !overflow-hidden !p-0 !m-0" style="content-visibility:hidden" inert="" aria-hidden="true"><div class="flex flex-col items-center shrink-0"><div class="w-px h-[7px] bg-pk-border"></div><div class="w-3 h-3 rounded-full border-2 border-pk-gray-300 bg-pk-surface shrink-0"></div><div class="w-px flex-1 bg-pk-border"></div></div><div class="flex-1 pb-8"><span class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary">Jul 29 2026</span><p class="text-body-base font-semibold text-pk-content-primary leading-5 mt-1">Fed Chair Warsh commits to press conferences amid market volatility</p><p class="flex items-center gap-1 text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary mt-0.5"><span>No change<!-- --> <!-- -->surges to<!-- --> <!-- -->68<!-- -->%</span><span class="inline-flex items-center gap-0.5 font-semibold text-pk-content-accent-green"><svg width="8" height="8" viewBox="0 0 12 12" fill="none" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><path d="M6.51952 2.5C6.28858 2.1 5.71123 2.1 5.48029 2.5L1.84298 8.8C1.61204 9.2 1.90072 9.7 2.3626 9.7L9.63721 9.7C10.0991 9.7 10.3878 9.2 10.1568 8.8L6.51952 2.5Z" fill="currentColor"></path></svg>15<!-- -->%</span></p><p class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-secondary leading-5 mt-1">Following the July meeting, Fed Chair Kevin Warsh committed to continuing press conferences for the remainder of 2026, aiming to improve communication amid internal divisions and market volatility caused by inflation and geopolitical tensions. This transparency helped stabilize market expectations around the Fed&#x27;s policy path.</p><div class="flex items-center gap-1.5 mt-3"><a href="https://finance.yahoo.com/economy/live/fed-meeting-live-federal-reserve-july-interest-rate-decision-141813444.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" class="flex items-center justify-center rounded-md overflow-hidden bg-white" style="width:28px;height:28px;border:1px solid var(--color-pk-border)" data-state="closed" data-slot="tooltip-trigger"><img src="https://www.google.com/s2/favicons?domain=finance.yahoo.com&amp;sz=64" alt="Yahoo Finance" referrerPolicy="no-referrer" width="18" height="18" loading="lazy" style="object-fit:contain"/></a></div></div></div><div class="flex gap-3 relative !h-0 !overflow-hidden !p-0 !m-0" style="content-visibility:hidden" inert="" aria-hidden="true"><div class="flex flex-col items-center shrink-0"><div class="w-px h-[7px] bg-pk-border"></div><div class="w-3 h-3 rounded-full border-2 border-pk-gray-300 bg-pk-surface shrink-0"></div><div class="w-px flex-1 bg-pk-border"></div></div><div class="flex-1 pb-8"><span class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary">Jul 29 2026</span><p class="text-body-base font-semibold text-pk-content-primary leading-5 mt-1">Federal Reserve announces maintenance of interest rate paid on reserve balances at 3.65%</p><p class="flex items-center gap-1 text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary mt-0.5"><span>No change<!-- --> <!-- -->jumps to<!-- --> <!-- -->49<!-- -->%</span><span class="inline-flex items-center gap-0.5 font-semibold text-pk-content-accent-green"><svg width="8" height="8" viewBox="0 0 12 12" fill="none" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><path d="M6.51952 2.5C6.28858 2.1 5.71123 2.1 5.48029 2.5L1.84298 8.8C1.61204 9.2 1.90072 9.7 2.3626 9.7L9.63721 9.7C10.0991 9.7 10.3878 9.2 10.1568 8.8L6.51952 2.5Z" fill="currentColor"></path></svg>8<!-- -->%</span></p><p class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-secondary leading-5 mt-1">The Fed&#x27;s unanimous decision to maintain the interest rate on reserve balances at 3.65% signaled continued monetary policy caution ahead of the September meeting, reinforcing expectations of no immediate rate hikes or cuts.</p><div class="flex items-center gap-1.5 mt-3"><a href="https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/files/monetary20260729a1.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" class="flex items-center justify-center rounded-md overflow-hidden bg-white" style="width:28px;height:28px;border:1px solid var(--color-pk-border)" data-state="closed" data-slot="tooltip-trigger"><img src="https://www.google.com/s2/favicons?domain=www.federalreserve.gov&amp;sz=64" alt="Federal Reserve" referrerPolicy="no-referrer" width="18" height="18" loading="lazy" style="object-fit:contain"/></a></div></div></div><div class="flex gap-3 relative !h-0 !overflow-hidden !p-0 !m-0" style="content-visibility:hidden" inert="" aria-hidden="true"><div class="flex flex-col items-center shrink-0"><div class="w-px h-[7px] bg-pk-border"></div><div class="w-3 h-3 rounded-full border-2 border-pk-gray-300 bg-pk-surface shrink-0"></div><div class="w-px flex-1 bg-pk-border"></div></div><div class="flex-1 pb-8"><span class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary">Jul 29 2026</span><p class="text-body-base font-semibold text-pk-content-primary leading-5 mt-1">FOMC holds rates steady but signals possible September hike</p><p class="flex items-center gap-1 text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary mt-0.5"><span>25 bps increase<!-- --> <!-- -->surges to<!-- --> <!-- -->54<!-- -->%</span><span class="inline-flex items-center gap-0.5 font-semibold text-pk-content-accent-green"><svg width="8" height="8" viewBox="0 0 12 12" fill="none" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><path d="M6.51952 2.5C6.28858 2.1 5.71123 2.1 5.48029 2.5L1.84298 8.8C1.61204 9.2 1.90072 9.7 2.3626 9.7L9.63721 9.7C10.0991 9.7 10.3878 9.2 10.1568 8.8L6.51952 2.5Z" fill="currentColor"></path></svg>42<!-- -->%</span></p><p class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-secondary leading-5 mt-1">At the July 29 meeting, the Fed kept rates unchanged but noted inflation remains above target and economic activity is solid, with some dissenters favoring a rate increase. This hawkish tone increased market expectations for a 25 bps hike in September.</p><div class="flex items-center gap-1.5 mt-3"><a href="https://quorumpw.com/insights/august-2026-market-update/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" class="flex items-center justify-center rounded-md overflow-hidden bg-white" style="width:28px;height:28px;border:1px solid var(--color-pk-border)" data-state="closed" data-slot="tooltip-trigger"><img src="https://www.google.com/s2/favicons?domain=quorumpw.com&amp;sz=64" alt="Quorum Private Wealth" referrerPolicy="no-referrer" width="18" height="18" loading="lazy" style="object-fit:contain"/></a></div></div></div><div class="flex gap-3 relative !h-0 !overflow-hidden !p-0 !m-0" style="content-visibility:hidden" inert="" aria-hidden="true"><div class="flex flex-col items-center shrink-0"><div class="w-px h-[7px] bg-pk-border"></div><div class="w-3 h-3 rounded-full border-2 border-pk-gray-300 bg-pk-surface shrink-0"></div><div class="w-px flex-1 bg-pk-border"></div></div><div class="flex-1 pb-8"><span class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary">Jul 29 2026</span><p class="text-body-base font-semibold text-pk-content-primary leading-5 mt-1">Federal Reserve keeps interest rates unchanged amid inflation concerns</p><p class="flex items-center gap-1 text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary mt-0.5"><span>25 bps increase<!-- --> <!-- -->surges to<!-- --> <!-- -->52<!-- -->%</span><span class="inline-flex items-center gap-0.5 font-semibold text-pk-content-accent-green"><svg width="8" height="8" viewBox="0 0 12 12" fill="none" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><path d="M6.51952 2.5C6.28858 2.1 5.71123 2.1 5.48029 2.5L1.84298 8.8C1.61204 9.2 1.90072 9.7 2.3626 9.7L9.63721 9.7C10.0991 9.7 10.3878 9.2 10.1568 8.8L6.51952 2.5Z" fill="currentColor"></path></svg>36<!-- -->%</span></p><p class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-secondary leading-5 mt-1">The Fed left rates unchanged at 3.5%-3.75% in a 9-3 vote despite ongoing inflation above target and energy price spikes due to the Iran war. The dissenters favored a 25 bps hike, reflecting ongoing debate and keeping markets uncertain about the September decision, which increased the probability of a rate hike.</p><div class="flex items-center gap-1.5 mt-3"><a href="https://www.ttnews.com/articles/federal-reserve-july-hold" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" class="flex items-center justify-center rounded-md overflow-hidden bg-white" style="width:28px;height:28px;border:1px solid var(--color-pk-border)" data-state="closed" data-slot="tooltip-trigger"><img src="https://www.google.com/s2/favicons?domain=www.ttnews.com&amp;sz=64" alt="TT News" referrerPolicy="no-referrer" width="18" height="18" loading="lazy" style="object-fit:contain"/></a></div></div></div><div class="flex gap-3 relative !h-0 !overflow-hidden !p-0 !m-0" style="content-visibility:hidden" inert="" aria-hidden="true"><div class="flex flex-col items-center shrink-0"><div class="w-px h-[7px] bg-pk-border"></div><div class="w-3 h-3 rounded-full border-2 border-pk-gray-300 bg-pk-surface shrink-0"></div><div class="w-px flex-1 bg-pk-border"></div></div><div class="flex-1 pb-8"><span class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary">Jul 29 2026</span><p class="text-body-base font-semibold text-pk-content-primary leading-5 mt-1">Federal Reserve issues statement maintaining interest rate paid on reserve balances at 3.65%</p><p class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-secondary leading-5 mt-1">The Federal Reserve confirmed its monetary policy stance by maintaining the interest rate on reserve balances, signaling no immediate change to the federal funds rate ahead of the September meeting. This helped stabilize market expectations for no rate change.</p><div class="flex items-center gap-1.5 mt-3"><a href="https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/files/monetary20260729a1.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" class="flex items-center justify-center rounded-md overflow-hidden bg-white" style="width:28px;height:28px;border:1px solid var(--color-pk-border)" data-state="closed" data-slot="tooltip-trigger"><img src="https://www.google.com/s2/favicons?domain=www.federalreserve.gov&amp;sz=64" alt="Federal Reserve" referrerPolicy="no-referrer" width="18" height="18" loading="lazy" style="object-fit:contain"/></a></div></div></div><div class="flex gap-3 relative !h-0 !overflow-hidden !p-0 !m-0" style="content-visibility:hidden" inert="" aria-hidden="true"><div class="flex flex-col items-center shrink-0"><div class="w-px h-[7px] bg-pk-border"></div><div class="w-3 h-3 rounded-full border-2 border-pk-gray-300 bg-pk-surface shrink-0"></div><div class="w-px flex-1 bg-pk-border"></div></div><div class="flex-1 pb-8"><span class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary">Jul 29 2026</span><p class="text-body-base font-semibold text-pk-content-primary leading-5 mt-1">Fed Chair Warsh emphasizes price stability amid divided FOMC</p><p class="flex items-center gap-1 text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary mt-0.5"><span>No change<!-- --> <!-- -->dips to<!-- --> <!-- -->55<!-- -->%</span><span class="inline-flex items-center gap-0.5 font-semibold text-pk-content-accent-red"><svg width="8" height="8" viewBox="0 0 12 12" fill="none" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><path d="M6.51952 9.5C6.28858 9.9 5.71123 9.9 5.48029 9.5L1.84298 3.2C1.61204 2.8 1.90072 2.3 2.3626 2.3L9.63721 2.3C10.0991 2.3 10.3878 2.8 10.1568 3.2L6.51952 9.5Z" fill="currentColor"></path></svg>1<!-- -->%</span></p><p class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-secondary leading-5 mt-1">Chair Kevin Warsh described the July FOMC meeting as a &#x27;good family fight&#x27; with three dissenters favoring a rate hike. He emphasized the Fed&#x27;s commitment to price stability and avoided forward guidance, contributing to market uncertainty but ultimately supporting a hold on rates.</p><div class="flex items-center gap-1.5 mt-3"><a href="https://www.fhlbboston.com/strategies-insights/july-29-2026-fomc-meeting-analysis/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" class="flex items-center justify-center rounded-md overflow-hidden bg-white" style="width:28px;height:28px;border:1px solid var(--color-pk-border)" data-state="closed" data-slot="tooltip-trigger"><img src="https://www.google.com/s2/favicons?domain=www.fhlbboston.com&amp;sz=64" alt="FHLBank Boston" referrerPolicy="no-referrer" width="18" height="18" loading="lazy" style="object-fit:contain"/></a></div></div></div><div class="flex gap-3 relative !h-0 !overflow-hidden !p-0 !m-0" style="content-visibility:hidden" inert="" aria-hidden="true"><div class="flex flex-col items-center shrink-0"><div class="w-px h-[7px] bg-pk-border"></div><div class="w-3 h-3 rounded-full border-2 border-pk-gray-300 bg-pk-surface shrink-0"></div><div class="w-px flex-1 bg-pk-border"></div></div><div class="flex-1 pb-8"><span class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary">Jul 29 2026</span><p class="text-body-base font-semibold text-pk-content-primary leading-5 mt-1">Federal Reserve Keeps Rates Unchanged at July Meeting Amid Inflation Concerns</p><p class="flex items-center gap-1 text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary mt-0.5"><span>25 bps increase<!-- --> <!-- -->surges to<!-- --> <!-- -->56<!-- -->%</span><span class="inline-flex items-center gap-0.5 font-semibold text-pk-content-accent-green"><svg width="8" height="8" viewBox="0 0 12 12" fill="none" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><path d="M6.51952 2.5C6.28858 2.1 5.71123 2.1 5.48029 2.5L1.84298 8.8C1.61204 9.2 1.90072 9.7 2.3626 9.7L9.63721 9.7C10.0991 9.7 10.3878 9.2 10.1568 8.8L6.51952 2.5Z" fill="currentColor"></path></svg>19<!-- -->%</span></p><p class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-secondary leading-5 mt-1">At the July 28-29 meeting, the FOMC voted 9-3 to hold the federal funds rate steady at 3.50%-3.75%, with some dissenters favoring a hike. The decision reflected ongoing concerns about inflation remaining above target, leading markets to price in a possible rate increase in September, which influenced the rise in the &#x27;25 bps increase&#x27; option price.</p><div class="flex items-center gap-1.5 mt-3"><a href="https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2026/07/29/feds-interest-rate-decision-july-29-2026" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" class="flex items-center justify-center rounded-md overflow-hidden bg-white" style="width:28px;height:28px;border:1px solid var(--color-pk-border)" data-state="closed" data-slot="tooltip-trigger"><img src="https://www.google.com/s2/favicons?domain=www.advisorperspectives.com&amp;sz=64" alt="Advisor Perspectives" referrerPolicy="no-referrer" width="18" height="18" loading="lazy" style="object-fit:contain"/></a></div></div></div><div class="flex gap-3 relative !h-0 !overflow-hidden !p-0 !m-0" style="content-visibility:hidden" inert="" aria-hidden="true"><div class="flex flex-col items-center shrink-0"><div class="w-px h-[7px] bg-pk-border"></div><div class="w-3 h-3 rounded-full border-2 border-pk-gray-300 bg-pk-surface shrink-0"></div><div class="w-px flex-1 bg-pk-border"></div></div><div class="flex-1 pb-8"><span class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary">Jul 29 2026</span><p class="text-body-base font-semibold text-pk-content-primary leading-5 mt-1">Markets react to Fed&#x27;s July hold with hawkish undertones and rate hike expectations</p><p class="flex items-center gap-1 text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary mt-0.5"><span>No change<!-- --> <!-- -->dips to<!-- --> <!-- -->39<!-- -->%</span><span class="inline-flex items-center gap-0.5 font-semibold text-pk-content-accent-red"><svg width="8" height="8" viewBox="0 0 12 12" fill="none" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><path d="M6.51952 9.5C6.28858 9.9 5.71123 9.9 5.48029 9.5L1.84298 3.2C1.61204 2.8 1.90072 2.3 2.3626 2.3L9.63721 2.3C10.0991 2.3 10.3878 2.8 10.1568 3.2L6.51952 9.5Z" fill="currentColor"></path></svg>2<!-- -->%</span></p><p class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-secondary leading-5 mt-1">Following the July 29 decision to hold rates steady, markets reacted to the hawkish tone and dissenting votes by pricing in one to two rate hikes by the end of 2026, with September seen as the most likely timing. Treasury yields rose and the US dollar strengthened, reflecting expectations of a stronger USD if a September hike occurs.</p><div class="flex items-center gap-1.5 mt-3"><a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2026/07/29/fed-meeting-today-live-updates.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" class="flex items-center justify-center rounded-md overflow-hidden bg-white" style="width:28px;height:28px;border:1px solid var(--color-pk-border)" data-state="closed" data-slot="tooltip-trigger"><img src="https://www.google.com/s2/favicons?domain=www.cnbc.com&amp;sz=64" alt="CNBC" referrerPolicy="no-referrer" width="18" height="18" loading="lazy" style="object-fit:contain"/></a></div></div></div><div class="flex gap-3 relative !h-0 !overflow-hidden !p-0 !m-0" style="content-visibility:hidden" inert="" aria-hidden="true"><div class="flex flex-col items-center shrink-0"><div class="w-px h-[7px] bg-pk-border"></div><div class="w-3 h-3 rounded-full border-2 border-pk-gray-300 bg-pk-surface shrink-0"></div><div class="w-px flex-1 bg-pk-border"></div></div><div class="flex-1 pb-8"><span class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary">Jul 29 2026</span><p class="text-body-base font-semibold text-pk-content-primary leading-5 mt-1">FOMC holds federal funds rate steady at 3.50%–3.75% with three dissenters favoring hike</p><p class="flex items-center gap-1 text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary mt-0.5"><span>No change<!-- --> <!-- -->plunges to<!-- --> <!-- -->41<!-- -->%</span><span class="inline-flex items-center gap-0.5 font-semibold text-pk-content-accent-red"><svg width="8" height="8" viewBox="0 0 12 12" fill="none" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><path d="M6.51952 9.5C6.28858 9.9 5.71123 9.9 5.48029 9.5L1.84298 3.2C1.61204 2.8 1.90072 2.3 2.3626 2.3L9.63721 2.3C10.0991 2.3 10.3878 2.8 10.1568 3.2L6.51952 9.5Z" fill="currentColor"></path></svg>18<!-- -->%</span></p><p class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-secondary leading-5 mt-1">The Federal Open Market Committee voted 9–3 to maintain the target range for the federal funds rate, signaling a cautious approach amid ongoing inflation concerns. The dissenters&#x27; preference for a 25 bps increase highlighted internal divisions and kept the possibility of future hikes alive, influencing market pricing toward a no change or modest increase outcome.</p><div class="flex items-center gap-1.5 mt-3"><a href="https://www.financecalendar.com/event/fomc-rate-decision-july-2026/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" class="flex items-center justify-center rounded-md overflow-hidden bg-white" style="width:28px;height:28px;border:1px solid var(--color-pk-border)" data-state="closed" data-slot="tooltip-trigger"><img src="https://www.google.com/s2/favicons?domain=www.financecalendar.com&amp;sz=64" alt="FinanceCalendar" referrerPolicy="no-referrer" width="18" height="18" loading="lazy" style="object-fit:contain"/></a><a href="https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomcpresconf20260729.htm" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" class="flex items-center justify-center rounded-md overflow-hidden bg-white" style="width:28px;height:28px;border:1px solid var(--color-pk-border)" data-state="closed" data-slot="tooltip-trigger"><img src="https://www.google.com/s2/favicons?domain=www.federalreserve.gov&amp;sz=64" alt="Federal Reserve" referrerPolicy="no-referrer" width="18" height="18" loading="lazy" style="object-fit:contain"/></a></div></div></div><div class="flex gap-3 relative !h-0 !overflow-hidden !p-0 !m-0" style="content-visibility:hidden" inert="" aria-hidden="true"><div class="flex flex-col items-center shrink-0"><div class="w-px h-[7px] bg-pk-border"></div><div class="w-3 h-3 rounded-full border-2 border-pk-gray-300 bg-pk-surface shrink-0"></div><div class="w-px flex-1 bg-pk-border"></div></div><div class="flex-1 pb-8"><span class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary">Jul 29 2026</span><p class="text-body-base font-semibold text-pk-content-primary leading-5 mt-1">Three FOMC members dissent, preferring a 25 bps rate hike at July meeting</p><p class="flex items-center gap-1 text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary mt-0.5"><span>No change<!-- --> <!-- -->surges to<!-- --> <!-- -->56<!-- -->%</span><span class="inline-flex items-center gap-0.5 font-semibold text-pk-content-accent-green"><svg width="8" height="8" viewBox="0 0 12 12" fill="none" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><path d="M6.51952 2.5C6.28858 2.1 5.71123 2.1 5.48029 2.5L1.84298 8.8C1.61204 9.2 1.90072 9.7 2.3626 9.7L9.63721 9.7C10.0991 9.7 10.3878 9.2 10.1568 8.8L6.51952 2.5Z" fill="currentColor"></path></svg>16<!-- -->%</span></p><p class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-secondary leading-5 mt-1">At the July 28-29 FOMC meeting, three members voted against maintaining the current rate, advocating for a 25 basis point increase due to elevated inflation. This dissent highlighted internal committee divisions and contributed to market uncertainty about the September decision.</p><div class="flex items-center gap-1.5 mt-3"><a href="https://www.actionforex.com/central-banks/federal-reserve/651177-fed-minutes-of-the-federal-open-market-committee-40/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" class="flex items-center justify-center rounded-md overflow-hidden bg-white" style="width:28px;height:28px;border:1px solid var(--color-pk-border)" data-state="closed" data-slot="tooltip-trigger"><img src="https://www.google.com/s2/favicons?domain=www.actionforex.com&amp;sz=64" alt="ActionForex" referrerPolicy="no-referrer" width="18" height="18" loading="lazy" style="object-fit:contain"/></a></div></div></div><div class="flex gap-3 relative !h-0 !overflow-hidden !p-0 !m-0" style="content-visibility:hidden" inert="" aria-hidden="true"><div class="flex flex-col items-center shrink-0"><div class="w-px h-[7px] bg-pk-border"></div><div class="w-3 h-3 rounded-full border-2 border-pk-gray-300 bg-pk-surface shrink-0"></div><div class="w-px flex-1 bg-pk-border"></div></div><div class="flex-1 pb-8"><span class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary">Jul 29 2026</span><p class="text-body-base font-semibold text-pk-content-primary leading-5 mt-1">Federal Reserve holds rates steady at 3.50%-3.75% with three dissenters favoring hike</p><p class="flex items-center gap-1 text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary mt-0.5"><span>25 bps increase<!-- --> <!-- -->surges to<!-- --> <!-- -->60<!-- -->%</span><span class="inline-flex items-center gap-0.5 font-semibold text-pk-content-accent-green"><svg width="8" height="8" viewBox="0 0 12 12" fill="none" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><path d="M6.51952 2.5C6.28858 2.1 5.71123 2.1 5.48029 2.5L1.84298 8.8C1.61204 9.2 1.90072 9.7 2.3626 9.7L9.63721 9.7C10.0991 9.7 10.3878 9.2 10.1568 8.8L6.51952 2.5Z" fill="currentColor"></path></svg>32<!-- -->%</span></p><p class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-secondary leading-5 mt-1">At the July 29 FOMC meeting, the Fed maintained the federal funds rate target range at 3.50% to 3.75%, but three members dissented, preferring a 25 basis point increase. Chair Kevin Warsh emphasized that the hold was not a pause but part of ongoing policy evaluation, signaling a hawkish stance that increased market expectations for a September rate hike.</p><div class="flex items-center gap-1.5 mt-3"><a href="https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20260729a.htm" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" class="flex items-center justify-center rounded-md overflow-hidden bg-white" style="width:28px;height:28px;border:1px solid var(--color-pk-border)" data-state="closed" data-slot="tooltip-trigger"><img src="https://www.google.com/s2/favicons?domain=www.federalreserve.gov&amp;sz=64" alt="Federal Reserve Board" referrerPolicy="no-referrer" width="18" height="18" loading="lazy" style="object-fit:contain"/></a><a href="https://blog.orbitremit.com/fed-holds-rates-federal-reserve-july-2026/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" class="flex items-center justify-center rounded-md overflow-hidden bg-white" style="width:28px;height:28px;border:1px solid var(--color-pk-border)" data-state="closed" data-slot="tooltip-trigger"><img src="https://www.google.com/s2/favicons?domain=blog.orbitremit.com&amp;sz=64" alt="OrbitRemit" referrerPolicy="no-referrer" width="18" height="18" loading="lazy" style="object-fit:contain"/></a></div></div></div><div class="flex gap-3 relative !h-0 !overflow-hidden !p-0 !m-0" style="content-visibility:hidden" inert="" aria-hidden="true"><div class="flex flex-col items-center shrink-0"><div class="w-px h-[7px] bg-pk-border"></div><div class="w-3 h-3 rounded-full border-2 border-pk-gray-300 bg-pk-surface shrink-0"></div><div class="w-px flex-1 bg-pk-border"></div></div><div class="flex-1 pb-8"><span class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary">Jul 29 2026</span><p class="text-body-base font-semibold text-pk-content-primary leading-5 mt-1">Fed Chair Warsh rejects pause, signals possible rate hikes in September</p><p class="flex items-center gap-1 text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary mt-0.5"><span>No change<!-- --> <!-- -->surges to<!-- --> <!-- -->67<!-- -->%</span><span class="inline-flex items-center gap-0.5 font-semibold text-pk-content-accent-green"><svg width="8" height="8" viewBox="0 0 12 12" fill="none" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><path d="M6.51952 2.5C6.28858 2.1 5.71123 2.1 5.48029 2.5L1.84298 8.8C1.61204 9.2 1.90072 9.7 2.3626 9.7L9.63721 9.7C10.0991 9.7 10.3878 9.2 10.1568 8.8L6.51952 2.5Z" fill="currentColor"></path></svg>28<!-- -->%</span></p><p class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-secondary leading-5 mt-1">Chair Kevin Warsh explicitly rejected the idea of a pause in rate changes, describing the July hold as the beginning of a story. His hawkish tone led markets to price in one to two rate hikes by the end of 2026, with September seen as the most likely timing for the first increase.</p><div class="flex items-center gap-1.5 mt-3"><a href="https://blog.orbitremit.com/fed-holds-rates-federal-reserve-july-2026/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" class="flex items-center justify-center rounded-md overflow-hidden bg-white" style="width:28px;height:28px;border:1px solid var(--color-pk-border)" data-state="closed" data-slot="tooltip-trigger"><img src="https://www.google.com/s2/favicons?domain=blog.orbitremit.com&amp;sz=64" alt="CNBC" referrerPolicy="no-referrer" width="18" height="18" loading="lazy" style="object-fit:contain"/></a></div></div></div><div class="flex gap-3 relative !h-0 !overflow-hidden !p-0 !m-0" style="content-visibility:hidden" inert="" aria-hidden="true"><div class="flex flex-col items-center shrink-0"><div class="w-px h-[7px] bg-pk-border"></div><div class="w-3 h-3 rounded-full border-2 border-pk-gray-300 bg-pk-surface shrink-0"></div><div class="w-px flex-1 bg-pk-border"></div></div><div class="flex-1 pb-8"><span class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary">Jul 29 2026</span><p class="text-body-base font-semibold text-pk-content-primary leading-5 mt-1">Fed holds rates steady with three dissenters favoring a hike</p><p class="flex items-center gap-1 text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary mt-0.5"><span>No change<!-- --> <!-- -->surges to<!-- --> <!-- -->68<!-- -->%</span><span class="inline-flex items-center gap-0.5 font-semibold text-pk-content-accent-green"><svg width="8" height="8" viewBox="0 0 12 12" fill="none" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><path d="M6.51952 2.5C6.28858 2.1 5.71123 2.1 5.48029 2.5L1.84298 8.8C1.61204 9.2 1.90072 9.7 2.3626 9.7L9.63721 9.7C10.0991 9.7 10.3878 9.2 10.1568 8.8L6.51952 2.5Z" fill="currentColor"></path></svg>22<!-- -->%</span></p><p class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-secondary leading-5 mt-1">On July 29, 2026, the Federal Reserve again held the federal funds rate at 3.50%–3.75% in a 9-3 vote, with three members dissenting for a 25 basis point increase. Chair Warsh rejected the notion of a pause, framing the decision as a rigorous review and signaling that rate hikes remain possible, which led markets to price in a likely September hike.</p><div class="flex items-center gap-1.5 mt-3"><a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2026/07/29/fed-meeting-today-live-updates.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" class="flex items-center justify-center rounded-md overflow-hidden bg-white" style="width:28px;height:28px;border:1px solid var(--color-pk-border)" data-state="closed" data-slot="tooltip-trigger"><img src="https://www.google.com/s2/favicons?domain=www.cnbc.com&amp;sz=64" alt="CNBC" referrerPolicy="no-referrer" width="18" height="18" loading="lazy" style="object-fit:contain"/></a><a href="https://blog.orbitremit.com/fed-holds-rates-federal-reserve-july-2026/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" class="flex items-center justify-center rounded-md overflow-hidden bg-white" style="width:28px;height:28px;border:1px solid var(--color-pk-border)" data-state="closed" data-slot="tooltip-trigger"><img src="https://www.google.com/s2/favicons?domain=blog.orbitremit.com&amp;sz=64" alt="OrbitRemit" referrerPolicy="no-referrer" width="18" height="18" loading="lazy" style="object-fit:contain"/></a></div></div></div><div class="flex gap-3 relative !h-0 !overflow-hidden !p-0 !m-0" style="content-visibility:hidden" inert="" aria-hidden="true"><div class="flex flex-col items-center shrink-0"><div class="w-px h-[7px] bg-pk-border"></div><div class="w-3 h-3 rounded-full border-2 border-pk-gray-300 bg-pk-surface shrink-0"></div><div class="w-px flex-1 bg-pk-border"></div></div><div class="flex-1 pb-8"><span class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary">Jul 29 2026</span><p class="text-body-base font-semibold text-pk-content-primary leading-5 mt-1">Federal Reserve Holds Rates at 3.50%-3.75% with Three Dissenters Favoring Hike</p><p class="flex items-center gap-1 text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary mt-0.5"><span>25 bps increase<!-- --> <!-- -->jumps to<!-- --> <!-- -->40<!-- -->%</span><span class="inline-flex items-center gap-0.5 font-semibold text-pk-content-accent-green"><svg width="8" height="8" viewBox="0 0 12 12" fill="none" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><path d="M6.51952 2.5C6.28858 2.1 5.71123 2.1 5.48029 2.5L1.84298 8.8C1.61204 9.2 1.90072 9.7 2.3626 9.7L9.63721 9.7C10.0991 9.7 10.3878 9.2 10.1568 8.8L6.51952 2.5Z" fill="currentColor"></path></svg>14<!-- -->%</span></p><p class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-secondary leading-5 mt-1">At the July 29 meeting, the FOMC voted 9-3 to keep rates steady at 3.50%-3.75%, but three regional Fed presidents dissented, preferring a 25 basis point increase. Chair Kevin Warsh emphasized the decision was a &#x27;rigorous review&#x27; rather than a pause, signaling that a September hike remained on the table, which shifted market expectations toward a likely increase.</p><div class="flex items-center gap-1.5 mt-3"><a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2026/07/29/fed-meeting-today-live-updates.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" class="flex items-center justify-center rounded-md overflow-hidden bg-white" style="width:28px;height:28px;border:1px solid var(--color-pk-border)" data-state="closed" data-slot="tooltip-trigger"><img src="https://www.google.com/s2/favicons?domain=www.cnbc.com&amp;sz=64" alt="CNBC" referrerPolicy="no-referrer" width="18" height="18" loading="lazy" style="object-fit:contain"/></a><a href="https://blog.orbitremit.com/fed-holds-rates-federal-reserve-july-2026/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" class="flex items-center justify-center rounded-md overflow-hidden bg-white" style="width:28px;height:28px;border:1px solid var(--color-pk-border)" data-state="closed" data-slot="tooltip-trigger"><img src="https://www.google.com/s2/favicons?domain=blog.orbitremit.com&amp;sz=64" alt="OrbitRemit" referrerPolicy="no-referrer" width="18" height="18" loading="lazy" style="object-fit:contain"/></a></div></div></div><div class="flex gap-3 relative !h-0 !overflow-hidden !p-0 !m-0" style="content-visibility:hidden" inert="" aria-hidden="true"><div class="flex flex-col items-center shrink-0"><div class="w-px h-[7px] bg-pk-border"></div><div class="w-3 h-3 rounded-full border-2 border-pk-gray-300 bg-pk-surface shrink-0"></div><div class="w-px flex-1 bg-pk-border"></div></div><div class="flex-1 pb-8"><span class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary">Jul 29 2026</span><p class="text-body-base font-semibold text-pk-content-primary leading-5 mt-1">FOMC July meeting ends with no rate change but notable dissent</p><p class="flex items-center gap-1 text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary mt-0.5"><span>No change<!-- --> <!-- -->drops to<!-- --> <!-- -->64<!-- -->%</span><span class="inline-flex items-center gap-0.5 font-semibold text-pk-content-accent-red"><svg width="8" height="8" viewBox="0 0 12 12" fill="none" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><path d="M6.51952 9.5C6.28858 9.9 5.71123 9.9 5.48029 9.5L1.84298 3.2C1.61204 2.8 1.90072 2.3 2.3626 2.3L9.63721 2.3C10.0991 2.3 10.3878 2.8 10.1568 3.2L6.51952 9.5Z" fill="currentColor"></path></svg>10<!-- -->%</span></p><p class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-secondary leading-5 mt-1">The July 28-29 FOMC meeting concluded with the Fed holding rates steady at 3.5%–3.75%, but with a 9-3 vote showing dissenters favoring a 25 bps hike. This split highlighted internal Fed divisions and contributed to market uncertainty, reflected in fluctuating probabilities for rate changes.</p><div class="flex items-center gap-1.5 mt-3"><a href="https://emergencyfundcalculator.com/fed-interest-rate-decision-august-2026/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" class="flex items-center justify-center rounded-md overflow-hidden bg-white" style="width:28px;height:28px;border:1px solid var(--color-pk-border)" data-state="closed" data-slot="tooltip-trigger"><img src="https://www.google.com/s2/favicons?domain=emergencyfundcalculator.com&amp;sz=64" alt="Emergency Fund Calculator" referrerPolicy="no-referrer" width="18" height="18" loading="lazy" style="object-fit:contain"/></a></div></div></div><div class="flex gap-3 relative !h-0 !overflow-hidden !p-0 !m-0" style="content-visibility:hidden" inert="" aria-hidden="true"><div class="flex flex-col items-center shrink-0"><div class="w-px h-[7px] bg-pk-border"></div><div class="w-3 h-3 rounded-full border-2 border-pk-gray-300 bg-pk-surface shrink-0"></div><div class="w-px flex-1 bg-pk-border"></div></div><div class="flex-1 pb-8"><span class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary">Jul 29 2026</span><p class="text-body-base font-semibold text-pk-content-primary leading-5 mt-1">Fed holds rates steady in July with three dissenters favoring a hike</p><p class="flex items-center gap-1 text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary mt-0.5"><span>No change<!-- --> <!-- -->surges to<!-- --> <!-- -->63<!-- -->%</span><span class="inline-flex items-center gap-0.5 font-semibold text-pk-content-accent-green"><svg width="8" height="8" viewBox="0 0 12 12" fill="none" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><path d="M6.51952 2.5C6.28858 2.1 5.71123 2.1 5.48029 2.5L1.84298 8.8C1.61204 9.2 1.90072 9.7 2.3626 9.7L9.63721 9.7C10.0991 9.7 10.3878 9.2 10.1568 8.8L6.51952 2.5Z" fill="currentColor"></path></svg>23<!-- -->%</span></p><p class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-secondary leading-5 mt-1">On July 29, 2026, the Federal Reserve voted 9-3 to keep rates at 3.50%-3.75%, with three members dissenting in favor of a 25 basis point increase. Chair Kevin Warsh rejected the notion of a pause, framing the decision as a review period, and markets immediately priced in a likely September hike, reflecting ongoing inflation concerns and energy price pressures.</p><div class="flex items-center gap-1.5 mt-3"><a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2026/07/29/fed-meeting-today-live-updates.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" class="flex items-center justify-center rounded-md overflow-hidden bg-white" style="width:28px;height:28px;border:1px solid var(--color-pk-border)" data-state="closed" data-slot="tooltip-trigger"><img src="https://www.google.com/s2/favicons?domain=www.cnbc.com&amp;sz=64" alt="CNBC" referrerPolicy="no-referrer" width="18" height="18" loading="lazy" style="object-fit:contain"/></a></div></div></div><div class="flex gap-3 relative !h-0 !overflow-hidden !p-0 !m-0" style="content-visibility:hidden" inert="" aria-hidden="true"><div class="flex flex-col items-center shrink-0"><div class="w-px h-[7px] bg-pk-border"></div><div class="w-3 h-3 rounded-full border-2 border-pk-gray-300 bg-pk-surface shrink-0"></div><div class="w-px flex-1 bg-pk-border"></div></div><div class="flex-1 pb-8"><span class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary">Jul 29 2026</span><p class="text-body-base font-semibold text-pk-content-primary leading-5 mt-1">Market Reacts Sharply to Fed&#x27;s Decision to Hold Rates Steady</p><p class="flex items-center gap-1 text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary mt-0.5"><span>25 bps increase<!-- --> <!-- -->jumps to<!-- --> <!-- -->50<!-- -->%</span><span class="inline-flex items-center gap-0.5 font-semibold text-pk-content-accent-green"><svg width="8" height="8" viewBox="0 0 12 12" fill="none" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><path d="M6.51952 2.5C6.28858 2.1 5.71123 2.1 5.48029 2.5L1.84298 8.8C1.61204 9.2 1.90072 9.7 2.3626 9.7L9.63721 9.7C10.0991 9.7 10.3878 9.2 10.1568 8.8L6.51952 2.5Z" fill="currentColor"></path></svg>12<!-- -->%</span></p><p class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-secondary leading-5 mt-1">Following the Fed&#x27;s decision, Treasury yields spiked and stock markets fell sharply, reflecting investor uncertainty and increased expectations for future rate hikes. This market reaction contributed to the rising probability of a 25 bps increase in the September meeting.</p><div class="flex items-center gap-1.5 mt-3"><a href="https://finance.yahoo.com/economy/live/fed-meeting-live-federal-reserve-july-interest-rate-decision-141813444.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" class="flex items-center justify-center rounded-md overflow-hidden bg-white" style="width:28px;height:28px;border:1px solid var(--color-pk-border)" data-state="closed" data-slot="tooltip-trigger"><img src="https://www.google.com/s2/favicons?domain=finance.yahoo.com&amp;sz=64" alt="Yahoo Finance" referrerPolicy="no-referrer" width="18" height="18" loading="lazy" style="object-fit:contain"/></a></div></div></div><div class="flex gap-3 relative !h-0 !overflow-hidden !p-0 !m-0" style="content-visibility:hidden" inert="" aria-hidden="true"><div class="flex flex-col items-center shrink-0"><div class="w-px h-[7px] bg-pk-border"></div><div class="w-3 h-3 rounded-full border-2 border-pk-gray-300 bg-pk-surface shrink-0"></div><div class="w-px flex-1 bg-pk-border"></div></div><div class="flex-1 pb-8"><span class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary">Jul 29 2026</span><p class="text-body-base font-semibold text-pk-content-primary leading-5 mt-1">Federal Reserve Holds Rates at 3.50%–3.75% in July Meeting Amid Inflation Concerns</p><p class="flex items-center gap-1 text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary mt-0.5"><span>No change<!-- --> <!-- -->jumps to<!-- --> <!-- -->61<!-- -->%</span><span class="inline-flex items-center gap-0.5 font-semibold text-pk-content-accent-green"><svg width="8" height="8" viewBox="0 0 12 12" fill="none" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><path d="M6.51952 2.5C6.28858 2.1 5.71123 2.1 5.48029 2.5L1.84298 8.8C1.61204 9.2 1.90072 9.7 2.3626 9.7L9.63721 9.7C10.0991 9.7 10.3878 9.2 10.1568 8.8L6.51952 2.5Z" fill="currentColor"></path></svg>5<!-- -->%</span></p><p class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-secondary leading-5 mt-1">The Fed maintained the federal funds rate at 3.50%–3.75% during the July 28-29 meeting, with some dissenting votes favoring a quarter-point increase. Inflation remained elevated, and the Fed signaled a data-dependent approach, causing market probabilities for a 25 bps increase to rise significantly.</p><div class="flex items-center gap-1.5 mt-3"><a href="https://www.financecalendar.com/fomc-meetings/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" class="flex items-center justify-center rounded-md overflow-hidden bg-white" style="width:28px;height:28px;border:1px solid var(--color-pk-border)" data-state="closed" data-slot="tooltip-trigger"><img src="https://www.google.com/s2/favicons?domain=www.financecalendar.com&amp;sz=64" alt="Finance Calendar" referrerPolicy="no-referrer" width="18" height="18" loading="lazy" style="object-fit:contain"/></a></div></div></div><div class="flex gap-3 relative !h-0 !overflow-hidden !p-0 !m-0" style="content-visibility:hidden" inert="" aria-hidden="true"><div class="flex flex-col items-center shrink-0"><div class="w-px h-[7px] bg-pk-border"></div><div class="w-3 h-3 rounded-full border-2 border-pk-gray-300 bg-pk-surface shrink-0"></div><div class="w-px flex-1 bg-pk-border"></div></div><div class="flex-1 pb-8"><span class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary">Jul 29 2026</span><p class="text-body-base font-semibold text-pk-content-primary leading-5 mt-1">Fed Chair Kevin Warsh Commits to Press Conferences Amid Rate Decision</p><p class="flex items-center gap-1 text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary mt-0.5"><span>No change<!-- --> <!-- -->jumps to<!-- --> <!-- -->63<!-- -->%</span><span class="inline-flex items-center gap-0.5 font-semibold text-pk-content-accent-green"><svg width="8" height="8" viewBox="0 0 12 12" fill="none" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><path d="M6.51952 2.5C6.28858 2.1 5.71123 2.1 5.48029 2.5L1.84298 8.8C1.61204 9.2 1.90072 9.7 2.3626 9.7L9.63721 9.7C10.0991 9.7 10.3878 9.2 10.1568 8.8L6.51952 2.5Z" fill="currentColor"></path></svg>7<!-- -->%</span></p><p class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-secondary leading-5 mt-1">Following the July 29 meeting, Fed Chair Kevin Warsh committed to holding press conferences for the remainder of 2026, signaling transparency and ongoing communication about monetary policy. This helped markets interpret the Fed&#x27;s cautious stance and hawkish outlook, affecting expectations for future rate moves.</p><div class="flex items-center gap-1.5 mt-3"><a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2026/07/29/fed-meeting-today-live-updates.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" class="flex items-center justify-center rounded-md overflow-hidden bg-white" style="width:28px;height:28px;border:1px solid var(--color-pk-border)" data-state="closed" data-slot="tooltip-trigger"><img src="https://www.google.com/s2/favicons?domain=www.cnbc.com&amp;sz=64" alt="CNBC" referrerPolicy="no-referrer" width="18" height="18" loading="lazy" style="object-fit:contain"/></a></div></div></div><div class="flex gap-3 relative !h-0 !overflow-hidden !p-0 !m-0" style="content-visibility:hidden" inert="" aria-hidden="true"><div class="flex flex-col items-center shrink-0"><div class="w-px h-[7px] bg-pk-border"></div><div class="w-3 h-3 rounded-full border-2 border-pk-gray-300 bg-pk-surface shrink-0"></div><div class="w-px flex-1 bg-pk-border"></div></div><div class="flex-1 pb-8"><span class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary">Jul 29 2026</span><p class="text-body-base font-semibold text-pk-content-primary leading-5 mt-1">FOMC holds rates steady at July meeting with 9-3 vote</p><p class="flex items-center gap-1 text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary mt-0.5"><span>No change<!-- --> <!-- -->jumps to<!-- --> <!-- -->55<!-- -->%</span><span class="inline-flex items-center gap-0.5 font-semibold text-pk-content-accent-green"><svg width="8" height="8" viewBox="0 0 12 12" fill="none" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><path d="M6.51952 2.5C6.28858 2.1 5.71123 2.1 5.48029 2.5L1.84298 8.8C1.61204 9.2 1.90072 9.7 2.3626 9.7L9.63721 9.7C10.0991 9.7 10.3878 9.2 10.1568 8.8L6.51952 2.5Z" fill="currentColor"></path></svg>11<!-- -->%</span></p><p class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-secondary leading-5 mt-1">The Federal Reserve maintained the federal funds rate at 3.5% to 3.75% during the July 28-29 meeting. The decision was supported by a majority but faced dissent from three members advocating a 25 bps increase due to ongoing inflation concerns, signaling some internal division.</p><div class="flex items-center gap-1.5 mt-3"><a href="https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomcminutes20260729.htm" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" class="flex items-center justify-center rounded-md overflow-hidden bg-white" style="width:28px;height:28px;border:1px solid var(--color-pk-border)" data-state="closed" data-slot="tooltip-trigger"><img src="https://www.google.com/s2/favicons?domain=www.federalreserve.gov&amp;sz=64" alt="federalreserve.gov" referrerPolicy="no-referrer" width="18" height="18" loading="lazy" style="object-fit:contain"/></a></div></div></div><div class="flex gap-3 relative !h-0 !overflow-hidden !p-0 !m-0" style="content-visibility:hidden" inert="" aria-hidden="true"><div class="flex flex-col items-center shrink-0"><div class="w-px h-[7px] bg-pk-border"></div><div class="w-3 h-3 rounded-full border-2 border-pk-gray-300 bg-pk-surface shrink-0"></div><div class="w-px flex-1 bg-pk-border"></div></div><div class="flex-1 pb-8"><span class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary">Jul 29 2026</span><p class="text-body-base font-semibold text-pk-content-primary leading-5 mt-1">Fed Chair Warsh signals ongoing &#x27;family fight&#x27; over rate policy amid inflation and geopolitical risks</p><p class="flex items-center gap-1 text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary mt-0.5"><span>25 bps increase<!-- --> <!-- -->surges to<!-- --> <!-- -->56<!-- -->%</span><span class="inline-flex items-center gap-0.5 font-semibold text-pk-content-accent-green"><svg width="8" height="8" viewBox="0 0 12 12" fill="none" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><path d="M6.51952 2.5C6.28858 2.1 5.71123 2.1 5.48029 2.5L1.84298 8.8C1.61204 9.2 1.90072 9.7 2.3626 9.7L9.63721 9.7C10.0991 9.7 10.3878 9.2 10.1568 8.8L6.51952 2.5Z" fill="currentColor"></path></svg>16<!-- -->%</span></p><p class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-secondary leading-5 mt-1">Chair Kevin Warsh described internal Fed debates as a &#x27;family fight&#x27; reflecting differing views on inflation risks and rate policy. The Fed scrapped forward guidance, increasing uncertainty about future moves. Elevated inflation driven by energy prices and Middle East tensions contributed to market expectations of a possible rate hike in September.</p><div class="flex items-center gap-1.5 mt-3"><a href="https://thegistnotes.com/federal-reserve-faces-crucial-decision-on-interest-rates-amid-inflation-concerns/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" class="flex items-center justify-center rounded-md overflow-hidden bg-white" style="width:28px;height:28px;border:1px solid var(--color-pk-border)" data-state="closed" data-slot="tooltip-trigger"><img src="https://www.google.com/s2/favicons?domain=thegistnotes.com&amp;sz=64" alt="The Gist Notes" referrerPolicy="no-referrer" width="18" height="18" loading="lazy" style="object-fit:contain"/></a></div></div></div><div class="flex gap-3 relative !h-0 !overflow-hidden !p-0 !m-0" style="content-visibility:hidden" inert="" aria-hidden="true"><div class="flex flex-col items-center shrink-0"><div class="w-px h-[7px] bg-pk-border"></div><div class="w-3 h-3 rounded-full border-2 border-pk-gray-300 bg-pk-surface shrink-0"></div><div class="w-px flex-1 bg-pk-border"></div></div><div class="flex-1 pb-8"><span class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary">Jul 29 2026</span><p class="text-body-base font-semibold text-pk-content-primary leading-5 mt-1">Fed Chair Kevin Warsh&#x27;s press conference emphasizes inflation control and cautious outlook</p><p class="flex items-center gap-1 text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary mt-0.5"><span>No change<!-- --> <!-- -->dips to<!-- --> <!-- -->50<!-- -->%</span><span class="inline-flex items-center gap-0.5 font-semibold text-pk-content-accent-red"><svg width="8" height="8" viewBox="0 0 12 12" fill="none" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><path d="M6.51952 9.5C6.28858 9.9 5.71123 9.9 5.48029 9.5L1.84298 3.2C1.61204 2.8 1.90072 2.3 2.3626 2.3L9.63721 2.3C10.0991 2.3 10.3878 2.8 10.1568 3.2L6.51952 9.5Z" fill="currentColor"></path></svg>3<!-- -->%</span></p><p class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-secondary leading-5 mt-1">Following the July 29 FOMC meeting, Chair Kevin Warsh emphasized the Fed&#x27;s commitment to controlling inflation and indicated a cautious, data-dependent approach. His remarks contributed to market uncertainty but kept the door open for a September hike.</p><div class="flex items-center gap-1.5 mt-3"><a href="https://www.nytimes.com/live/2026/07/29/business/fed-meeting-rates-kevin-warsh" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" class="flex items-center justify-center rounded-md overflow-hidden bg-white" style="width:28px;height:28px;border:1px solid var(--color-pk-border)" data-state="closed" data-slot="tooltip-trigger"><img src="https://www.google.com/s2/favicons?domain=www.nytimes.com&amp;sz=64" alt="The New York Times" referrerPolicy="no-referrer" width="18" height="18" loading="lazy" style="object-fit:contain"/></a></div></div></div><div class="flex gap-3 relative !h-0 !overflow-hidden !p-0 !m-0" style="content-visibility:hidden" inert="" aria-hidden="true"><div class="flex flex-col items-center shrink-0"><div class="w-px h-[7px] bg-pk-border"></div><div class="w-3 h-3 rounded-full border-2 border-pk-gray-300 bg-pk-surface shrink-0"></div><div class="w-px flex-1 bg-pk-border"></div></div><div class="flex-1 pb-8"><span class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary">Jul 29 2026</span><p class="text-body-base font-semibold text-pk-content-primary leading-5 mt-1">Fed holds rates at 3.50%-3.75% with 9-3 vote, dissenters favor hike</p><p class="flex items-center gap-1 text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary mt-0.5"><span>25 bps increase<!-- --> <!-- -->rises to<!-- --> <!-- -->27<!-- -->%</span><span class="inline-flex items-center gap-0.5 font-semibold text-pk-content-accent-green"><svg width="8" height="8" viewBox="0 0 12 12" fill="none" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><path d="M6.51952 2.5C6.28858 2.1 5.71123 2.1 5.48029 2.5L1.84298 8.8C1.61204 9.2 1.90072 9.7 2.3626 9.7L9.63721 9.7C10.0991 9.7 10.3878 9.2 10.1568 8.8L6.51952 2.5Z" fill="currentColor"></path></svg>4<!-- -->%</span></p><p class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-secondary leading-5 mt-1">The July FOMC meeting ended with the Fed holding rates steady, but three regional Fed presidents dissented, favoring a rate hike. This unusual split highlighted uncertainty and contributed to increased market expectations for a possible 25 bps increase in September.</p><div class="flex items-center gap-1.5 mt-3"><a href="https://emergencyfundcalculator.com/fed-interest-rate-decision-august-2026/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" class="flex items-center justify-center rounded-md overflow-hidden bg-white" style="width:28px;height:28px;border:1px solid var(--color-pk-border)" data-state="closed" data-slot="tooltip-trigger"><img src="https://www.google.com/s2/favicons?domain=emergencyfundcalculator.com&amp;sz=64" alt="Emergency Fund Calculator" referrerPolicy="no-referrer" width="18" height="18" loading="lazy" style="object-fit:contain"/></a></div></div></div><div class="flex gap-3 relative !h-0 !overflow-hidden !p-0 !m-0" style="content-visibility:hidden" inert="" aria-hidden="true"><div class="flex flex-col items-center shrink-0"><div class="w-px h-[7px] bg-pk-border"></div><div class="w-3 h-3 rounded-full border-2 border-pk-gray-300 bg-pk-surface shrink-0"></div><div class="w-px flex-1 bg-pk-border"></div></div><div class="flex-1 pb-8"><span class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary">Jul 29 2026</span><p class="text-body-base font-semibold text-pk-content-primary leading-5 mt-1">New Fed Chair Kevin Warsh signals vigilance on inflation, holds rates steady</p><p class="flex items-center gap-1 text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary mt-0.5"><span>No change<!-- --> <!-- -->surges to<!-- --> <!-- -->63<!-- -->%</span><span class="inline-flex items-center gap-0.5 font-semibold text-pk-content-accent-green"><svg width="8" height="8" viewBox="0 0 12 12" fill="none" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><path d="M6.51952 2.5C6.28858 2.1 5.71123 2.1 5.48029 2.5L1.84298 8.8C1.61204 9.2 1.90072 9.7 2.3626 9.7L9.63721 9.7C10.0991 9.7 10.3878 9.2 10.1568 8.8L6.51952 2.5Z" fill="currentColor"></path></svg>22<!-- -->%</span></p><p class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-secondary leading-5 mt-1">At the July FOMC meeting, new Chair Kevin Warsh confirmed the committee&#x27;s decision to keep rates unchanged at 3.50%-3.75%, emphasizing the Fed&#x27;s readiness to act if inflation pressures persist. The meeting highlighted internal divisions with some members favoring hikes, but the overall stance was a cautious pause, influencing market pricing toward no change or a modest hike.</p><div class="flex items-center gap-1.5 mt-3"><a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2026/07/29/fed-meeting-today-live-updates.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" class="flex items-center justify-center rounded-md overflow-hidden bg-white" style="width:28px;height:28px;border:1px solid var(--color-pk-border)" data-state="closed" data-slot="tooltip-trigger"><img src="https://www.google.com/s2/favicons?domain=www.cnbc.com&amp;sz=64" alt="CNBC" referrerPolicy="no-referrer" width="18" height="18" loading="lazy" style="object-fit:contain"/></a></div></div></div><div class="flex gap-3 relative !h-0 !overflow-hidden !p-0 !m-0" style="content-visibility:hidden" inert="" aria-hidden="true"><div class="flex flex-col items-center shrink-0"><div class="w-px h-[7px] bg-pk-border"></div><div class="w-3 h-3 rounded-full border-2 border-pk-gray-300 bg-pk-surface shrink-0"></div><div class="w-px flex-1 bg-pk-border"></div></div><div class="flex-1 pb-8"><span class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary">Jul 29 2026</span><p class="text-body-base font-semibold text-pk-content-primary leading-5 mt-1">Federal Reserve keeps rates unchanged amid inflation concerns and internal dissent</p><p class="flex items-center gap-1 text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary mt-0.5"><span>No change<!-- --> <!-- -->surges to<!-- --> <!-- -->54<!-- -->%</span><span class="inline-flex items-center gap-0.5 font-semibold text-pk-content-accent-green"><svg width="8" height="8" viewBox="0 0 12 12" fill="none" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><path d="M6.51952 2.5C6.28858 2.1 5.71123 2.1 5.48029 2.5L1.84298 8.8C1.61204 9.2 1.90072 9.7 2.3626 9.7L9.63721 9.7C10.0991 9.7 10.3878 9.2 10.1568 8.8L6.51952 2.5Z" fill="currentColor"></path></svg>15<!-- -->%</span></p><p class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-secondary leading-5 mt-1">At the July FOMC meeting, the Fed again held rates steady at 3.50%–3.75%, despite three dissenting votes favoring a 25 bps hike. Inflation remained elevated due to energy price shocks from the U.S.-Iran conflict, maintaining market uncertainty but leaning toward no change or a modest increase.</p><div class="flex items-center gap-1.5 mt-3"><a href="https://www.npr.org/2026/07/29/nx-s1-5910558/federal-reserve-interest-rates-inflation" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" class="flex items-center justify-center rounded-md overflow-hidden bg-white" style="width:28px;height:28px;border:1px solid var(--color-pk-border)" data-state="closed" data-slot="tooltip-trigger"><img src="https://www.google.com/s2/favicons?domain=www.npr.org&amp;sz=64" alt="NPR" referrerPolicy="no-referrer" width="18" height="18" loading="lazy" style="object-fit:contain"/></a><a href="https://thegistnotes.com/federal-reserve-faces-crucial-decision-on-interest-rates-amid-inflation-concerns/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" class="flex items-center justify-center rounded-md overflow-hidden bg-white" style="width:28px;height:28px;border:1px solid var(--color-pk-border)" data-state="closed" data-slot="tooltip-trigger"><img src="https://www.google.com/s2/favicons?domain=thegistnotes.com&amp;sz=64" alt="The Gist Notes" referrerPolicy="no-referrer" width="18" height="18" loading="lazy" style="object-fit:contain"/></a></div></div></div><div class="flex gap-3 relative !h-0 !overflow-hidden !p-0 !m-0" style="content-visibility:hidden" inert="" aria-hidden="true"><div class="flex flex-col items-center shrink-0"><div class="w-px h-[7px] bg-pk-border"></div><div class="w-3 h-3 rounded-full border-2 border-pk-gray-300 bg-pk-surface shrink-0"></div><div class="w-px flex-1 bg-pk-border"></div></div><div class="flex-1 pb-8"><span class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary">Jul 29 2026</span><p class="text-body-base font-semibold text-pk-content-primary leading-5 mt-1">Fed Chair Warsh Signals Possible Rate Hike in September After July Hold</p><p class="flex items-center gap-1 text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary mt-0.5"><span>25 bps increase<!-- --> <!-- -->jumps to<!-- --> <!-- -->33<!-- -->%</span><span class="inline-flex items-center gap-0.5 font-semibold text-pk-content-accent-green"><svg width="8" height="8" viewBox="0 0 12 12" fill="none" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><path d="M6.51952 2.5C6.28858 2.1 5.71123 2.1 5.48029 2.5L1.84298 8.8C1.61204 9.2 1.90072 9.7 2.3626 9.7L9.63721 9.7C10.0991 9.7 10.3878 9.2 10.1568 8.8L6.51952 2.5Z" fill="currentColor"></path></svg>5<!-- -->%</span></p><p class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-secondary leading-5 mt-1">Following the July meeting, Chair Warsh explicitly rejected the idea of a pause and indicated that the hold was just the beginning of the story, with markets pricing in one to two rate hikes by the end of 2026, most likely starting in September. This hawkish stance pushed market probabilities toward a 25 bps increase in the near term.</p><div class="flex items-center gap-1.5 mt-3"><a href="https://blog.orbitremit.com/fed-holds-rates-federal-reserve-july-2026/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" class="flex items-center justify-center rounded-md overflow-hidden bg-white" style="width:28px;height:28px;border:1px solid var(--color-pk-border)" data-state="closed" data-slot="tooltip-trigger"><img src="https://www.google.com/s2/favicons?domain=blog.orbitremit.com&amp;sz=64" alt="OrbitRemit" referrerPolicy="no-referrer" width="18" height="18" loading="lazy" style="object-fit:contain"/></a><a href="https://www.usbank.com/investing/financial-perspectives/market-news/federal-reserve-interest-rate.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" class="flex items-center justify-center rounded-md overflow-hidden bg-white" style="width:28px;height:28px;border:1px solid var(--color-pk-border)" data-state="closed" data-slot="tooltip-trigger"><img src="https://www.google.com/s2/favicons?domain=www.usbank.com&amp;sz=64" alt="usbank.com" referrerPolicy="no-referrer" width="18" height="18" loading="lazy" style="object-fit:contain"/></a></div></div></div><div class="flex gap-3 relative !h-0 !overflow-hidden !p-0 !m-0" style="content-visibility:hidden" inert="" aria-hidden="true"><div class="flex flex-col items-center shrink-0"><div class="w-px h-[7px] bg-pk-border"></div><div class="w-3 h-3 rounded-full border-2 border-pk-gray-300 bg-pk-surface shrink-0"></div><div class="w-px flex-1 bg-pk-border"></div></div><div class="flex-1 pb-8"><span class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary">Jul 29 2026</span><p class="text-body-base font-semibold text-pk-content-primary leading-5 mt-1">FOMC holds federal funds rate steady at 3.50%-3.75% with 9-3 vote, dissenters favor hike</p><p class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-secondary leading-5 mt-1">The July FOMC meeting resulted in no rate change but featured three dissenting votes for a hike, signaling internal Fed caution about inflation. This split vote contributed to market uncertainty and fluctuating probabilities between &#x27;No change&#x27; and &#x27;25 bps increase&#x27;.</p><div class="flex items-center gap-1.5 mt-3"><a href="https://emergencyfundcalculator.com/fed-interest-rate-decision-august-2026/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" class="flex items-center justify-center rounded-md overflow-hidden bg-white" style="width:28px;height:28px;border:1px solid var(--color-pk-border)" data-state="closed" data-slot="tooltip-trigger"><img src="https://www.google.com/s2/favicons?domain=emergencyfundcalculator.com&amp;sz=64" alt="Emergency Fund Calculator" referrerPolicy="no-referrer" width="18" height="18" loading="lazy" style="object-fit:contain"/></a></div></div></div><div class="flex gap-3 relative !h-0 !overflow-hidden !p-0 !m-0" style="content-visibility:hidden" inert="" aria-hidden="true"><div class="flex flex-col items-center shrink-0"><div class="w-px h-[7px] bg-pk-border"></div><div class="w-3 h-3 rounded-full border-2 border-pk-gray-300 bg-pk-surface shrink-0"></div><div class="w-px flex-1 bg-pk-border"></div></div><div class="flex-1 pb-8"><span class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary">Jul 29 2026</span><p class="text-body-base font-semibold text-pk-content-primary leading-5 mt-1">Fed Chair Kevin Warsh emphasizes no tolerance for elevated inflation</p><p class="flex items-center gap-1 text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary mt-0.5"><span>25 bps increase<!-- --> <!-- -->surges to<!-- --> <!-- -->51<!-- -->%</span><span class="inline-flex items-center gap-0.5 font-semibold text-pk-content-accent-green"><svg width="8" height="8" viewBox="0 0 12 12" fill="none" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><path d="M6.51952 2.5C6.28858 2.1 5.71123 2.1 5.48029 2.5L1.84298 8.8C1.61204 9.2 1.90072 9.7 2.3626 9.7L9.63721 9.7C10.0991 9.7 10.3878 9.2 10.1568 8.8L6.51952 2.5Z" fill="currentColor"></path></svg>25<!-- -->%</span></p><p class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-secondary leading-5 mt-1">At his second meeting as Fed Chair, Kevin Warsh declared a firm stance against elevated inflation, reinforcing expectations for a possible rate hike in September despite the July hold. This hawkish tone influenced market pricing toward a 25 bps increase.</p><div class="flex items-center gap-1.5 mt-3"><a href="https://www.nytimes.com/live/2026/07/29/business/fed-meeting-rates-kevin-warsh" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" class="flex items-center justify-center rounded-md overflow-hidden bg-white" style="width:28px;height:28px;border:1px solid var(--color-pk-border)" data-state="closed" data-slot="tooltip-trigger"><img src="https://www.google.com/s2/favicons?domain=www.nytimes.com&amp;sz=64" alt="The New York Times" referrerPolicy="no-referrer" width="18" height="18" loading="lazy" style="object-fit:contain"/></a></div></div></div><div class="flex gap-3 relative !h-0 !overflow-hidden !p-0 !m-0" style="content-visibility:hidden" inert="" aria-hidden="true"><div class="flex flex-col items-center shrink-0"><div class="w-px h-[7px] bg-pk-border"></div><div class="w-3 h-3 rounded-full border-2 border-pk-gray-300 bg-pk-surface shrink-0"></div><div class="w-px flex-1 bg-pk-border"></div></div><div class="flex-1 pb-8"><span class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary">Jul 29 2026</span><p class="text-body-base font-semibold text-pk-content-primary leading-5 mt-1">Federal Reserve maintains rates at 3.50%-3.75% with no forward guidance</p><p class="flex items-center gap-1 text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary mt-0.5"><span>25 bps increase<!-- --> <!-- -->surges to<!-- --> <!-- -->56<!-- -->%</span><span class="inline-flex items-center gap-0.5 font-semibold text-pk-content-accent-green"><svg width="8" height="8" viewBox="0 0 12 12" fill="none" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><path d="M6.51952 2.5C6.28858 2.1 5.71123 2.1 5.48029 2.5L1.84298 8.8C1.61204 9.2 1.90072 9.7 2.3626 9.7L9.63721 9.7C10.0991 9.7 10.3878 9.2 10.1568 8.8L6.51952 2.5Z" fill="currentColor"></path></svg>18<!-- -->%</span></p><p class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-secondary leading-5 mt-1">The July 28-29 FOMC meeting resulted in a unanimous decision to keep rates steady at 3.50%-3.75% and maintain the interest rate on reserve balances at 3.65%. The Fed continued its policy of maintaining ample reserves and refrained from providing forward guidance, reinforcing the market&#x27;s view that a modest rate hike is likely in the near future, supporting the rise in probability for a 25 bps increase in September.</p><div class="flex items-center gap-1.5 mt-3"><a href="https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20260729a1.htm" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" class="flex items-center justify-center rounded-md overflow-hidden bg-white" style="width:28px;height:28px;border:1px solid var(--color-pk-border)" data-state="closed" data-slot="tooltip-trigger"><img src="https://www.google.com/s2/favicons?domain=www.federalreserve.gov&amp;sz=64" alt="Federal Reserve" referrerPolicy="no-referrer" width="18" height="18" loading="lazy" style="object-fit:contain"/></a></div></div></div><div class="flex gap-3 relative !h-0 !overflow-hidden !p-0 !m-0" style="content-visibility:hidden" inert="" aria-hidden="true"><div class="flex flex-col items-center shrink-0"><div class="w-px h-[7px] bg-pk-border"></div><div class="w-3 h-3 rounded-full border-2 border-pk-gray-300 bg-pk-surface shrink-0"></div><div class="w-px flex-1 bg-pk-border"></div></div><div class="flex-1 pb-8"><span class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary">Jul 29 2026</span><p class="text-body-base font-semibold text-pk-content-primary leading-5 mt-1">US Federal Reserve holds interest rates steady in July 2026 amid inflation concerns</p><p class="flex items-center gap-1 text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary mt-0.5"><span>No change<!-- --> <!-- -->jumps to<!-- --> <!-- -->49<!-- -->%</span><span class="inline-flex items-center gap-0.5 font-semibold text-pk-content-accent-green"><svg width="8" height="8" viewBox="0 0 12 12" fill="none" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><path d="M6.51952 2.5C6.28858 2.1 5.71123 2.1 5.48029 2.5L1.84298 8.8C1.61204 9.2 1.90072 9.7 2.3626 9.7L9.63721 9.7C10.0991 9.7 10.3878 9.2 10.1568 8.8L6.51952 2.5Z" fill="currentColor"></path></svg>10<!-- -->%</span></p><p class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-secondary leading-5 mt-1">The Fed maintained the target range at 3.50%-3.75% in July, with inflation remaining above target and some members favoring further tightening. The decision reflected ongoing uncertainty and diverse views on future rate moves.</p><div class="flex items-center gap-1.5 mt-3"><a href="https://www.scotiagam.com/en/home/insights/us-federal-reserve-holds-interest-rates-steady-in-july-2026.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" class="flex items-center justify-center rounded-md overflow-hidden bg-white" style="width:28px;height:28px;border:1px solid var(--color-pk-border)" data-state="closed" data-slot="tooltip-trigger"><img src="https://www.google.com/s2/favicons?domain=www.scotiagam.com&amp;sz=64" alt="Scotiabank" referrerPolicy="no-referrer" width="18" height="18" loading="lazy" style="object-fit:contain"/></a></div></div></div><div class="flex gap-3 relative !h-0 !overflow-hidden !p-0 !m-0" style="content-visibility:hidden" inert="" aria-hidden="true"><div class="flex flex-col items-center shrink-0"><div class="w-px h-[7px] bg-pk-border"></div><div class="w-3 h-3 rounded-full border-2 border-pk-gray-300 bg-pk-surface shrink-0"></div><div class="w-px flex-1 bg-pk-border"></div></div><div class="flex-1 pb-8"><span class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary">Jul 29 2026</span><p class="text-body-base font-semibold text-pk-content-primary leading-5 mt-1">Federal Reserve holds interest rates steady at 3.50%-3.75% despite inflation and energy price spikes</p><p class="flex items-center gap-1 text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary mt-0.5"><span>No change<!-- --> <!-- -->dips to<!-- --> <!-- -->50<!-- -->%</span><span class="inline-flex items-center gap-0.5 font-semibold text-pk-content-accent-red"><svg width="8" height="8" viewBox="0 0 12 12" fill="none" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><path d="M6.51952 9.5C6.28858 9.9 5.71123 9.9 5.48029 9.5L1.84298 3.2C1.61204 2.8 1.90072 2.3 2.3626 2.3L9.63721 2.3C10.0991 2.3 10.3878 2.8 10.1568 3.2L6.51952 9.5Z" fill="currentColor"></path></svg>3<!-- -->%</span></p><p class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-secondary leading-5 mt-1">The Fed voted 9-3 to keep rates unchanged amid persistent inflation and a spike in energy prices caused by the Middle East conflict. Three regional Fed presidents dissented, favoring a 25 basis point hike, signaling ongoing debate and hawkish pressure ahead of September.</p><div class="flex items-center gap-1.5 mt-3"><a href="https://www.ttnews.com/articles/federal-reserve-july-hold" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" class="flex items-center justify-center rounded-md overflow-hidden bg-white" style="width:28px;height:28px;border:1px solid var(--color-pk-border)" data-state="closed" data-slot="tooltip-trigger"><img src="https://www.google.com/s2/favicons?domain=www.ttnews.com&amp;sz=64" alt="Associated Press" referrerPolicy="no-referrer" width="18" height="18" loading="lazy" style="object-fit:contain"/></a><a href="https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20260729a.htm" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" class="flex items-center justify-center rounded-md overflow-hidden bg-white" style="width:28px;height:28px;border:1px solid var(--color-pk-border)" data-state="closed" data-slot="tooltip-trigger"><img src="https://www.google.com/s2/favicons?domain=www.federalreserve.gov&amp;sz=64" alt="Federal Reserve" referrerPolicy="no-referrer" width="18" height="18" loading="lazy" style="object-fit:contain"/></a></div></div></div><div class="flex gap-3 relative !h-0 !overflow-hidden !p-0 !m-0" style="content-visibility:hidden" inert="" aria-hidden="true"><div class="flex flex-col items-center shrink-0"><div class="w-px h-[7px] bg-pk-border"></div><div class="w-3 h-3 rounded-full border-2 border-pk-gray-300 bg-pk-surface shrink-0"></div><div class="w-px flex-1 bg-pk-border"></div></div><div class="flex-1 pb-8"><span class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary">Jul 29 2026</span><p class="text-body-base font-semibold text-pk-content-primary leading-5 mt-1">Fed Chair Kevin Warsh Highlights Intense Debate and Commitment to Inflation Control</p><p class="flex items-center gap-1 text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary mt-0.5"><span>25 bps increase<!-- --> <!-- -->surges to<!-- --> <!-- -->53<!-- -->%</span><span class="inline-flex items-center gap-0.5 font-semibold text-pk-content-accent-green"><svg width="8" height="8" viewBox="0 0 12 12" fill="none" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><path d="M6.51952 2.5C6.28858 2.1 5.71123 2.1 5.48029 2.5L1.84298 8.8C1.61204 9.2 1.90072 9.7 2.3626 9.7L9.63721 9.7C10.0991 9.7 10.3878 9.2 10.1568 8.8L6.51952 2.5Z" fill="currentColor"></path></svg>16<!-- -->%</span></p><p class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-secondary leading-5 mt-1">Following the July 29 meeting, Fed Chair Kevin Warsh described the internal debate as a &#x27;good family fight&#x27; and reiterated the Fed&#x27;s commitment to price stability, emphasizing there is no &#x27;soft inflation target.&#x27; This communication reinforced market expectations of potential rate hikes if inflation remains elevated, influencing the rise in the 25 bps increase probability.</p><div class="flex items-center gap-1.5 mt-3"><a href="https://www.cbsnews.com/news/federal-reserve-interest-rates-kevin-warsh-july-206/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" class="flex items-center justify-center rounded-md overflow-hidden bg-white" style="width:28px;height:28px;border:1px solid var(--color-pk-border)" data-state="closed" data-slot="tooltip-trigger"><img src="https://www.google.com/s2/favicons?domain=www.cbsnews.com&amp;sz=64" alt="CBS News" referrerPolicy="no-referrer" width="18" height="18" loading="lazy" style="object-fit:contain"/></a></div></div></div><div class="flex gap-3 relative !h-0 !overflow-hidden !p-0 !m-0" style="content-visibility:hidden" inert="" aria-hidden="true"><div class="flex flex-col items-center shrink-0"><div class="w-px h-[7px] bg-pk-border"></div><div class="w-3 h-3 rounded-full border-2 border-pk-gray-300 bg-pk-surface shrink-0"></div><div class="w-px flex-1 bg-pk-border"></div></div><div class="flex-1 pb-8"><span class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary">Jul 29 2026</span><p class="text-body-base font-semibold text-pk-content-primary leading-5 mt-1">Fed Chair Warsh emphasizes commitment to 2% inflation target amid divided Fed</p><p class="flex items-center gap-1 text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary mt-0.5"><span>25 bps increase<!-- --> <!-- -->rises to<!-- --> <!-- -->60<!-- -->%</span><span class="inline-flex items-center gap-0.5 font-semibold text-pk-content-accent-green"><svg width="8" height="8" viewBox="0 0 12 12" fill="none" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><path d="M6.51952 2.5C6.28858 2.1 5.71123 2.1 5.48029 2.5L1.84298 8.8C1.61204 9.2 1.90072 9.7 2.3626 9.7L9.63721 9.7C10.0991 9.7 10.3878 9.2 10.1568 8.8L6.51952 2.5Z" fill="currentColor"></path></svg>4<!-- -->%</span></p><p class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-secondary leading-5 mt-1">During the July 29 press conference, Chair Kevin Warsh reiterated the Fed&#x27;s commitment to price stability and acknowledged the divided views within the committee. His remarks reinforced market expectations for a possible rate hike in September if inflation remains elevated.</p><div class="flex items-center gap-1.5 mt-3"><a href="https://www.forexfactory.com/news/1410791-fomc-press-conference-july-29-2026" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" class="flex items-center justify-center rounded-md overflow-hidden bg-white" style="width:28px;height:28px;border:1px solid var(--color-pk-border)" data-state="closed" data-slot="tooltip-trigger"><img src="https://www.google.com/s2/favicons?domain=www.forexfactory.com&amp;sz=64" alt="Forex Factory" referrerPolicy="no-referrer" width="18" height="18" loading="lazy" style="object-fit:contain"/></a></div></div></div><div class="flex gap-3 relative !h-0 !overflow-hidden !p-0 !m-0" style="content-visibility:hidden" inert="" aria-hidden="true"><div class="flex flex-col items-center shrink-0"><div class="w-px h-[7px] bg-pk-border"></div><div class="w-3 h-3 rounded-full border-2 border-pk-gray-300 bg-pk-surface shrink-0"></div><div class="w-px flex-1 bg-pk-border"></div></div><div class="flex-1 pb-8"><span class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary">Jul 29 2026</span><p class="text-body-base font-semibold text-pk-content-primary leading-5 mt-1">July FOMC Meeting Minutes Show Majority Support for Maintaining Rates</p><p class="flex items-center gap-1 text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary mt-0.5"><span>25 bps increase<!-- --> <!-- -->jumps to<!-- --> <!-- -->54<!-- -->%</span><span class="inline-flex items-center gap-0.5 font-semibold text-pk-content-accent-green"><svg width="8" height="8" viewBox="0 0 12 12" fill="none" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><path d="M6.51952 2.5C6.28858 2.1 5.71123 2.1 5.48029 2.5L1.84298 8.8C1.61204 9.2 1.90072 9.7 2.3626 9.7L9.63721 9.7C10.0991 9.7 10.3878 9.2 10.1568 8.8L6.51952 2.5Z" fill="currentColor"></path></svg>12<!-- -->%</span></p><p class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-secondary leading-5 mt-1">Minutes from the July 28-29 FOMC meeting revealed that most participants favored keeping the federal funds rate steady at 3.50%-3.75%, with some dissenters preferring a rate hike. The discussion of inflation risks and balance sheet policy contributed to market anticipation of a moderate rate increase in September.</p><div class="flex items-center gap-1.5 mt-3"><a href="https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomcminutes20260729.htm" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" class="flex items-center justify-center rounded-md overflow-hidden bg-white" style="width:28px;height:28px;border:1px solid var(--color-pk-border)" data-state="closed" data-slot="tooltip-trigger"><img src="https://www.google.com/s2/favicons?domain=www.federalreserve.gov&amp;sz=64" alt="Federal Reserve" referrerPolicy="no-referrer" width="18" height="18" loading="lazy" style="object-fit:contain"/></a></div></div></div><div class="flex gap-3 relative !h-0 !overflow-hidden !p-0 !m-0" style="content-visibility:hidden" inert="" aria-hidden="true"><div class="flex flex-col items-center shrink-0"><div class="w-px h-[7px] bg-pk-border"></div><div class="w-3 h-3 rounded-full border-2 border-pk-gray-300 bg-pk-surface shrink-0"></div><div class="w-px flex-1 bg-pk-border"></div></div><div class="flex-1 pb-8"><span class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary">Jul 29 2026</span><p class="text-body-base font-semibold text-pk-content-primary leading-5 mt-1">Fed Chair Kevin Warsh signals hawkish stance, rejecting pause in rate hikes</p><p class="flex items-center gap-1 text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary mt-0.5"><span>25 bps increase<!-- --> <!-- -->surges to<!-- --> <!-- -->41<!-- -->%</span><span class="inline-flex items-center gap-0.5 font-semibold text-pk-content-accent-green"><svg width="8" height="8" viewBox="0 0 12 12" fill="none" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><path d="M6.51952 2.5C6.28858 2.1 5.71123 2.1 5.48029 2.5L1.84298 8.8C1.61204 9.2 1.90072 9.7 2.3626 9.7L9.63721 9.7C10.0991 9.7 10.3878 9.2 10.1568 8.8L6.51952 2.5Z" fill="currentColor"></path></svg>15<!-- -->%</span></p><p class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-secondary leading-5 mt-1">Following the July FOMC meeting, Chair Kevin Warsh explicitly rejected the idea of a pause in rate changes, describing the hold as the beginning of a story and signaling that rate hikes remain possible. This hawkish tone led markets to price in one to two rate hikes by the end of 2026, with September seen as the most likely timing for the first increase.</p><div class="flex items-center gap-1.5 mt-3"><a href="https://polymarket.copilot.markets/event/fed-decision-in-september-762" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" class="flex items-center justify-center rounded-md overflow-hidden bg-white" style="width:28px;height:28px;border:1px solid var(--color-pk-border)" data-state="closed" data-slot="tooltip-trigger"><img src="https://www.google.com/s2/favicons?domain=polymarket.copilot.markets&amp;sz=64" alt="Polymarket Analysis" referrerPolicy="no-referrer" width="18" height="18" loading="lazy" style="object-fit:contain"/></a></div></div></div><div class="flex gap-3 relative !h-0 !overflow-hidden !p-0 !m-0" style="content-visibility:hidden" inert="" aria-hidden="true"><div class="flex flex-col items-center shrink-0"><div class="w-px h-[7px] bg-pk-border"></div><div class="w-3 h-3 rounded-full border-2 border-pk-gray-300 bg-pk-surface shrink-0"></div><div class="w-px flex-1 bg-pk-border"></div></div><div class="flex-1 pb-8"><span class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary">Jul 29 2026</span><p class="text-body-base font-semibold text-pk-content-primary leading-5 mt-1">FOMC holds rates at 3.50%–3.75% with dissenters favoring a quarter-point hike</p><p class="flex items-center gap-1 text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary mt-0.5"><span>25 bps increase<!-- --> <!-- -->surges to<!-- --> <!-- -->40<!-- -->%</span><span class="inline-flex items-center gap-0.5 font-semibold text-pk-content-accent-green"><svg width="8" height="8" viewBox="0 0 12 12" fill="none" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><path d="M6.51952 2.5C6.28858 2.1 5.71123 2.1 5.48029 2.5L1.84298 8.8C1.61204 9.2 1.90072 9.7 2.3626 9.7L9.63721 9.7C10.0991 9.7 10.3878 9.2 10.1568 8.8L6.51952 2.5Z" fill="currentColor"></path></svg>24<!-- -->%</span></p><p class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-secondary leading-5 mt-1">The July 29, 2026 FOMC statement maintained the federal funds rate at 3.50%–3.75%, with a 9–3 vote. The statement noted inflation remains elevated relative to the 2% goal, partly due to supply shocks including energy. The dissenters&#x27; preference for a 25 bps increase signaled growing hawkish sentiment, influencing market expectations for a possible September hike.</p><div class="flex items-center gap-1.5 mt-3"><a href="https://polymarkettrader.com/events/fed-fomc-october-2026/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" class="flex items-center justify-center rounded-md overflow-hidden bg-white" style="width:28px;height:28px;border:1px solid var(--color-pk-border)" data-state="closed" data-slot="tooltip-trigger"><img src="https://www.google.com/s2/favicons?domain=polymarkettrader.com&amp;sz=64" alt="Polymarkettrader" referrerPolicy="no-referrer" width="18" height="18" loading="lazy" style="object-fit:contain"/></a></div></div></div><div class="flex gap-3 relative !h-0 !overflow-hidden !p-0 !m-0" style="content-visibility:hidden" inert="" aria-hidden="true"><div class="flex flex-col items-center shrink-0"><div class="w-px h-[7px] bg-pk-border"></div><div class="w-3 h-3 rounded-full border-2 border-pk-gray-300 bg-pk-surface shrink-0"></div><div class="w-px flex-1 bg-pk-border"></div></div><div class="flex-1 pb-8"><span class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary">Jul 29 2026</span><p class="text-body-base font-semibold text-pk-content-primary leading-5 mt-1">Federal Reserve holds rates with three dissenters favoring hike</p><p class="flex items-center gap-1 text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary mt-0.5"><span>No change<!-- --> <!-- -->rises to<!-- --> <!-- -->45<!-- -->%</span><span class="inline-flex items-center gap-0.5 font-semibold text-pk-content-accent-green"><svg width="8" height="8" viewBox="0 0 12 12" fill="none" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><path d="M6.51952 2.5C6.28858 2.1 5.71123 2.1 5.48029 2.5L1.84298 8.8C1.61204 9.2 1.90072 9.7 2.3626 9.7L9.63721 9.7C10.0991 9.7 10.3878 9.2 10.1568 8.8L6.51952 2.5Z" fill="currentColor"></path></svg>3<!-- -->%</span></p><p class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-secondary leading-5 mt-1">On July 29, 2026, the Fed again held rates steady at 3.50%–3.75% in a 9-3 vote, with three members dissenting for a 25 bps increase. Chair Warsh rejected the notion of a pause, framing the decision as a review before potential hikes, which led markets to price in a likely rate increase at the September meeting.</p><div class="flex items-center gap-1.5 mt-3"><a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2026/07/29/fed-meeting-today-live-updates.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" class="flex items-center justify-center rounded-md overflow-hidden bg-white" style="width:28px;height:28px;border:1px solid var(--color-pk-border)" data-state="closed" data-slot="tooltip-trigger"><img src="https://www.google.com/s2/favicons?domain=www.cnbc.com&amp;sz=64" alt="CNBC" referrerPolicy="no-referrer" width="18" height="18" loading="lazy" style="object-fit:contain"/></a><a href="https://blog.orbitremit.com/fed-holds-rates-federal-reserve-july-2026/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" class="flex items-center justify-center rounded-md overflow-hidden bg-white" style="width:28px;height:28px;border:1px solid var(--color-pk-border)" data-state="closed" data-slot="tooltip-trigger"><img src="https://www.google.com/s2/favicons?domain=blog.orbitremit.com&amp;sz=64" alt="OrbitRemit" referrerPolicy="no-referrer" width="18" height="18" loading="lazy" style="object-fit:contain"/></a></div></div></div><div class="flex gap-3 relative !h-0 !overflow-hidden !p-0 !m-0" style="content-visibility:hidden" inert="" aria-hidden="true"><div class="flex flex-col items-center shrink-0"><div class="w-px h-[7px] bg-pk-border"></div><div class="w-3 h-3 rounded-full border-2 border-pk-gray-300 bg-pk-surface shrink-0"></div><div class="w-px flex-1 bg-pk-border"></div></div><div class="flex-1 pb-8"><span class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary">Jul 29 2026</span><p class="text-body-base font-semibold text-pk-content-primary leading-5 mt-1">Federal Reserve holds rates steady at 3.50%-3.75% with three dissenters favoring hike</p><p class="flex items-center gap-1 text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary mt-0.5"><span>No change<!-- --> <!-- -->surges to<!-- --> <!-- -->65<!-- -->%</span><span class="inline-flex items-center gap-0.5 font-semibold text-pk-content-accent-green"><svg width="8" height="8" viewBox="0 0 12 12" fill="none" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><path d="M6.51952 2.5C6.28858 2.1 5.71123 2.1 5.48029 2.5L1.84298 8.8C1.61204 9.2 1.90072 9.7 2.3626 9.7L9.63721 9.7C10.0991 9.7 10.3878 9.2 10.1568 8.8L6.51952 2.5Z" fill="currentColor"></path></svg>26<!-- -->%</span></p><p class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-secondary leading-5 mt-1">At the July 29, 2026 FOMC meeting, the Fed held rates steady at 3.50%-3.75% in a 9-3 vote, with three regional Fed presidents dissenting for a 25 bps hike. Chair Kevin Warsh rejected the notion of a pause, signaling ongoing inflation concerns and keeping a September hike on the table.</p><div class="flex items-center gap-1.5 mt-3"><a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2026/07/29/fed-interest-rate-decision-july-2026.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" class="flex items-center justify-center rounded-md overflow-hidden bg-white" style="width:28px;height:28px;border:1px solid var(--color-pk-border)" data-state="closed" data-slot="tooltip-trigger"><img src="https://www.google.com/s2/favicons?domain=www.cnbc.com&amp;sz=64" alt="CNBC" referrerPolicy="no-referrer" width="18" height="18" loading="lazy" style="object-fit:contain"/></a><a href="https://blog.orbitremit.com/fed-holds-rates-federal-reserve-july-2026/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" class="flex items-center justify-center rounded-md overflow-hidden bg-white" style="width:28px;height:28px;border:1px solid var(--color-pk-border)" data-state="closed" data-slot="tooltip-trigger"><img src="https://www.google.com/s2/favicons?domain=blog.orbitremit.com&amp;sz=64" alt="OrbitRemit" referrerPolicy="no-referrer" width="18" height="18" loading="lazy" style="object-fit:contain"/></a></div></div></div><div class="flex gap-3 relative !h-0 !overflow-hidden !p-0 !m-0" style="content-visibility:hidden" inert="" aria-hidden="true"><div class="flex flex-col items-center shrink-0"><div class="w-px h-[7px] bg-pk-border"></div><div class="w-3 h-3 rounded-full border-2 border-pk-gray-300 bg-pk-surface shrink-0"></div><div class="w-px flex-1 bg-pk-border"></div></div><div class="flex-1 pb-8"><span class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary">Jul 29 2026</span><p class="text-body-base font-semibold text-pk-content-primary leading-5 mt-1">Federal Reserve holds interest rates steady at 3.50–3.75% in divided 9–3 vote</p><p class="flex items-center gap-1 text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary mt-0.5"><span>25 bps increase<!-- --> <!-- -->surges to<!-- --> <!-- -->59<!-- -->%</span><span class="inline-flex items-center gap-0.5 font-semibold text-pk-content-accent-green"><svg width="8" height="8" viewBox="0 0 12 12" fill="none" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><path d="M6.51952 2.5C6.28858 2.1 5.71123 2.1 5.48029 2.5L1.84298 8.8C1.61204 9.2 1.90072 9.7 2.3626 9.7L9.63721 9.7C10.0991 9.7 10.3878 9.2 10.1568 8.8L6.51952 2.5Z" fill="currentColor"></path></svg>24<!-- -->%</span></p><p class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-secondary leading-5 mt-1">On July 29, 2026, the Federal Reserve decided to keep the federal funds target range unchanged at 3.50%–3.75%, with three officials dissenting in favor of a 0.25-point increase. This decision reflected a split within the FOMC and influenced market expectations for the September meeting, increasing the likelihood of a rate hike.</p><div class="flex items-center gap-1.5 mt-3"><a href="https://cambridgecurrencies.com/next-federal-reserve-interest-rate-decision/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" class="flex items-center justify-center rounded-md overflow-hidden bg-white" style="width:28px;height:28px;border:1px solid var(--color-pk-border)" data-state="closed" data-slot="tooltip-trigger"><img src="https://www.google.com/s2/favicons?domain=cambridgecurrencies.com&amp;sz=64" alt="Cambridge Currencies" referrerPolicy="no-referrer" width="18" height="18" loading="lazy" style="object-fit:contain"/></a></div></div></div><div class="flex gap-3 relative !h-0 !overflow-hidden !p-0 !m-0" style="content-visibility:hidden" inert="" aria-hidden="true"><div class="flex flex-col items-center shrink-0"><div class="w-px h-[7px] bg-pk-border"></div><div class="w-3 h-3 rounded-full border-2 border-pk-gray-300 bg-pk-surface shrink-0"></div><div class="w-px flex-1 bg-pk-border"></div></div><div class="flex-1 pb-8"><span class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary">Jul 29 2026</span><p class="text-body-base font-semibold text-pk-content-primary leading-5 mt-1">FOMC minutes reveal inflation concerns and resolve to maintain rates</p><p class="flex items-center gap-1 text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary mt-0.5"><span>No change<!-- --> <!-- -->rises to<!-- --> <!-- -->59<!-- -->%</span><span class="inline-flex items-center gap-0.5 font-semibold text-pk-content-accent-green"><svg width="8" height="8" viewBox="0 0 12 12" fill="none" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><path d="M6.51952 2.5C6.28858 2.1 5.71123 2.1 5.48029 2.5L1.84298 8.8C1.61204 9.2 1.90072 9.7 2.3626 9.7L9.63721 9.7C10.0991 9.7 10.3878 9.2 10.1568 8.8L6.51952 2.5Z" fill="currentColor"></path></svg>3<!-- -->%</span></p><p class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-secondary leading-5 mt-1">The July 28–29 FOMC minutes highlighted that inflation remained elevated and that the Committee was resolved to maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 3.50%–3.75%. The minutes noted supply shocks and energy price increases but emphasized the commitment to price stability, influencing market confidence in no rate change.</p><div class="flex items-center gap-1.5 mt-3"><a href="https://www.actionforex.com/central-banks/federal-reserve/651177-fed-minutes-of-the-federal-open-market-committee-40/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" class="flex items-center justify-center rounded-md overflow-hidden bg-white" style="width:28px;height:28px;border:1px solid var(--color-pk-border)" data-state="closed" data-slot="tooltip-trigger"><img src="https://www.google.com/s2/favicons?domain=www.actionforex.com&amp;sz=64" alt="ActionForex" referrerPolicy="no-referrer" width="18" height="18" loading="lazy" style="object-fit:contain"/></a></div></div></div><div class="flex gap-3 relative !h-0 !overflow-hidden !p-0 !m-0" style="content-visibility:hidden" inert="" aria-hidden="true"><div class="flex flex-col items-center shrink-0"><div class="w-px h-[7px] bg-pk-border"></div><div class="w-3 h-3 rounded-full border-2 border-pk-gray-300 bg-pk-surface shrink-0"></div><div class="w-px flex-1 bg-pk-border"></div></div><div class="flex-1 pb-8"><span class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary">Jul 29 2026</span><p class="text-body-base font-semibold text-pk-content-primary leading-5 mt-1">Federal Reserve keeps interest rates steady at 3.50%-3.75% in July FOMC meeting</p><p class="flex items-center gap-1 text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary mt-0.5"><span>No change<!-- --> <!-- -->drops to<!-- --> <!-- -->43<!-- -->%</span><span class="inline-flex items-center gap-0.5 font-semibold text-pk-content-accent-red"><svg width="8" height="8" viewBox="0 0 12 12" fill="none" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><path d="M6.51952 9.5C6.28858 9.9 5.71123 9.9 5.48029 9.5L1.84298 3.2C1.61204 2.8 1.90072 2.3 2.3626 2.3L9.63721 2.3C10.0991 2.3 10.3878 2.8 10.1568 3.2L6.51952 9.5Z" fill="currentColor"></path></svg>13<!-- -->%</span></p><p class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-secondary leading-5 mt-1">The FOMC meeting on July 28-29 resulted in a decision to maintain the federal funds rate target range unchanged, with nine members supporting the pause and three dissenting in favor of a 25 basis point hike. The statement emphasized ongoing elevated inflation and solid economic growth, reinforcing a cautious but hawkish stance ahead of the September meeting.</p><div class="flex items-center gap-1.5 mt-3"><a href="https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomcminutes20260729.htm" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" class="flex items-center justify-center rounded-md overflow-hidden bg-white" style="width:28px;height:28px;border:1px solid var(--color-pk-border)" data-state="closed" data-slot="tooltip-trigger"><img src="https://www.google.com/s2/favicons?domain=www.federalreserve.gov&amp;sz=64" alt="Federal Reserve Board" referrerPolicy="no-referrer" width="18" height="18" loading="lazy" style="object-fit:contain"/></a><a href="https://www.ahmedabadmirror.com/us-federal-reserve-holds-int-rates-steady/81918754.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" class="flex items-center justify-center rounded-md overflow-hidden bg-white" style="width:28px;height:28px;border:1px solid var(--color-pk-border)" data-state="closed" data-slot="tooltip-trigger"><img src="https://www.google.com/s2/favicons?domain=www.ahmedabadmirror.com&amp;sz=64" alt="Ahmedabad Mirror" referrerPolicy="no-referrer" width="18" height="18" loading="lazy" style="object-fit:contain"/></a></div></div></div><div class="flex gap-3 relative !h-0 !overflow-hidden !p-0 !m-0" style="content-visibility:hidden" inert="" aria-hidden="true"><div class="flex flex-col items-center shrink-0"><div class="w-px h-[7px] bg-pk-border"></div><div class="w-3 h-3 rounded-full border-2 border-pk-gray-300 bg-pk-surface shrink-0"></div><div class="w-px flex-1 bg-pk-border"></div></div><div class="flex-1 pb-8"><span class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary">Jul 28 2026</span><p class="text-body-base font-semibold text-pk-content-primary leading-5 mt-1">Federal Reserve holds rates at 3.50%-3.75% in divided 9-3 vote</p><p class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-secondary leading-5 mt-1">At the July 28-29 FOMC meeting, the Committee voted 9-3 to keep the federal funds rate target range unchanged, with three members dissenting in favor of a 25 basis points increase. The statement emphasized elevated inflation and data dependence for future decisions, reinforcing market anticipation of a potential September hike.</p><div class="flex items-center gap-1.5 mt-3"><a href="https://www.actionforex.com/central-banks/federal-reserve/651177-fed-minutes-of-the-federal-open-market-committee-40/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" class="flex items-center justify-center rounded-md overflow-hidden bg-white" style="width:28px;height:28px;border:1px solid var(--color-pk-border)" data-state="closed" data-slot="tooltip-trigger"><img src="https://www.google.com/s2/favicons?domain=www.actionforex.com&amp;sz=64" alt="ActionForex" referrerPolicy="no-referrer" width="18" height="18" loading="lazy" style="object-fit:contain"/></a><a href="https://cambridgecurrencies.com/next-federal-reserve-interest-rate-decision/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" class="flex items-center justify-center rounded-md overflow-hidden bg-white" style="width:28px;height:28px;border:1px solid var(--color-pk-border)" data-state="closed" data-slot="tooltip-trigger"><img src="https://www.google.com/s2/favicons?domain=cambridgecurrencies.com&amp;sz=64" alt="Cambridge Currencies" referrerPolicy="no-referrer" width="18" height="18" loading="lazy" style="object-fit:contain"/></a></div></div></div><div class="flex gap-3 relative !h-0 !overflow-hidden !p-0 !m-0" style="content-visibility:hidden" inert="" aria-hidden="true"><div class="flex flex-col items-center shrink-0"><div class="w-px h-[7px] bg-pk-border"></div><div class="w-3 h-3 rounded-full border-2 border-pk-gray-300 bg-pk-surface shrink-0"></div><div class="w-px flex-1 bg-pk-border"></div></div><div class="flex-1 pb-8"><span class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary">Jul 28 2026</span><p class="text-body-base font-semibold text-pk-content-primary leading-5 mt-1">Federal Reserve holds rates steady at 3.50%–3.75% in divided 9–3 vote</p><p class="flex items-center gap-1 text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary mt-0.5"><span>No change<!-- --> <!-- -->rises to<!-- --> <!-- -->59<!-- -->%</span><span class="inline-flex items-center gap-0.5 font-semibold text-pk-content-accent-green"><svg width="8" height="8" viewBox="0 0 12 12" fill="none" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><path d="M6.51952 2.5C6.28858 2.1 5.71123 2.1 5.48029 2.5L1.84298 8.8C1.61204 9.2 1.90072 9.7 2.3626 9.7L9.63721 9.7C10.0991 9.7 10.3878 9.2 10.1568 8.8L6.51952 2.5Z" fill="currentColor"></path></svg>3<!-- -->%</span></p><p class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-secondary leading-5 mt-1">At the July 28–29 FOMC meeting, the Federal Reserve decided to maintain the federal funds target range at 3.50%–3.75%, with three officials dissenting in favor of a 25 basis points hike. This decision reinforced market expectations of no immediate change in September, supporting the &#x27;No change&#x27; outcome.</p><div class="flex items-center gap-1.5 mt-3"><a href="https://cambridgecurrencies.com/next-federal-reserve-interest-rate-decision/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" class="flex items-center justify-center rounded-md overflow-hidden bg-white" style="width:28px;height:28px;border:1px solid var(--color-pk-border)" data-state="closed" data-slot="tooltip-trigger"><img src="https://www.google.com/s2/favicons?domain=cambridgecurrencies.com&amp;sz=64" alt="Cambridge Currencies" referrerPolicy="no-referrer" width="18" height="18" loading="lazy" style="object-fit:contain"/></a></div></div></div><div class="flex gap-3 relative !h-0 !overflow-hidden !p-0 !m-0" style="content-visibility:hidden" inert="" aria-hidden="true"><div class="flex flex-col items-center shrink-0"><div class="w-px h-[7px] bg-pk-border"></div><div class="w-3 h-3 rounded-full border-2 border-pk-gray-300 bg-pk-surface shrink-0"></div><div class="w-px flex-1 bg-pk-border"></div></div><div class="flex-1 pb-8"><span class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary">Jul 28 2026</span><p class="text-body-base font-semibold text-pk-content-primary leading-5 mt-1">Fed meeting preview highlights internal debate and market expectations for September rate move</p><p class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-secondary leading-5 mt-1">Ahead of the July 28-29 FOMC meeting, market participants anticipated a cautious Fed stance with a 62% probability of no change and 38% chance of a rate hike. The Fed faced a &quot;family fight&quot; over policy direction amid mixed inflation and labor market data, setting the stage for September decisions.</p><div class="flex items-center gap-1.5 mt-3"><a href="https://thegistnotes.com/federal-reserve-faces-crucial-decision-on-interest-rates-amid-inflation-concerns/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" class="flex items-center justify-center rounded-md overflow-hidden bg-white" style="width:28px;height:28px;border:1px solid var(--color-pk-border)" data-state="closed" data-slot="tooltip-trigger"><img src="https://www.google.com/s2/favicons?domain=thegistnotes.com&amp;sz=64" alt="The Gist Notes" referrerPolicy="no-referrer" width="18" height="18" loading="lazy" style="object-fit:contain"/></a></div></div></div><div class="flex gap-3 relative !h-0 !overflow-hidden !p-0 !m-0" style="content-visibility:hidden" inert="" aria-hidden="true"><div class="flex flex-col items-center shrink-0"><div class="w-px h-[7px] bg-pk-border"></div><div class="w-3 h-3 rounded-full border-2 border-pk-gray-300 bg-pk-surface shrink-0"></div><div class="w-px flex-1 bg-pk-border"></div></div><div class="flex-1 pb-8"><span class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary">Jul 28 2026</span><p class="text-body-base font-semibold text-pk-content-primary leading-5 mt-1">Fed leadership signals possible rate hike amid inflation and labor market concerns</p><p class="flex items-center gap-1 text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary mt-0.5"><span>25 bps increase<!-- --> <!-- -->jumps to<!-- --> <!-- -->52<!-- -->%</span><span class="inline-flex items-center gap-0.5 font-semibold text-pk-content-accent-green"><svg width="8" height="8" viewBox="0 0 12 12" fill="none" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><path d="M6.51952 2.5C6.28858 2.1 5.71123 2.1 5.48029 2.5L1.84298 8.8C1.61204 9.2 1.90072 9.7 2.3626 9.7L9.63721 9.7C10.0991 9.7 10.3878 9.2 10.1568 8.8L6.51952 2.5Z" fill="currentColor"></path></svg>14<!-- -->%</span></p><p class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-secondary leading-5 mt-1">Ahead of the September meeting, Fed Chair Kevin Warsh described internal debates as a &quot;family fight&quot; over future rate moves, with investors increasingly anticipating a 25 bps hike due to persistent inflation and a resilient labor market. This contributed to rising market prices for the 25 bps increase outcome.</p><div class="flex items-center gap-1.5 mt-3"><a href="https://thegistnotes.com/federal-reserve-faces-crucial-decision-on-interest-rates-amid-inflation-concerns/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" class="flex items-center justify-center rounded-md overflow-hidden bg-white" style="width:28px;height:28px;border:1px solid var(--color-pk-border)" data-state="closed" data-slot="tooltip-trigger"><img src="https://www.google.com/s2/favicons?domain=thegistnotes.com&amp;sz=64" alt="The Gist Notes" referrerPolicy="no-referrer" width="18" height="18" loading="lazy" style="object-fit:contain"/></a></div></div></div><div class="flex gap-3 relative !h-0 !overflow-hidden !p-0 !m-0" style="content-visibility:hidden" inert="" aria-hidden="true"><div class="flex flex-col items-center shrink-0"><div class="w-px h-[7px] bg-pk-border"></div><div class="w-3 h-3 rounded-full border-2 border-pk-gray-300 bg-pk-surface shrink-0"></div><div class="w-px flex-1 bg-pk-border"></div></div><div class="flex-1 pb-8"><span class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary">Jul 27 2026</span><p class="text-body-base font-semibold text-pk-content-primary leading-5 mt-1">Rising market odds for a 25 bps Fed rate hike in September amid inflation and geopolitical tensions</p><p class="flex items-center gap-1 text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary mt-0.5"><span>25 bps increase<!-- --> <!-- -->surges to<!-- --> <!-- -->50<!-- -->%</span><span class="inline-flex items-center gap-0.5 font-semibold text-pk-content-accent-green"><svg width="8" height="8" viewBox="0 0 12 12" fill="none" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><path d="M6.51952 2.5C6.28858 2.1 5.71123 2.1 5.48029 2.5L1.84298 8.8C1.61204 9.2 1.90072 9.7 2.3626 9.7L9.63721 9.7C10.0991 9.7 10.3878 9.2 10.1568 8.8L6.51952 2.5Z" fill="currentColor"></path></svg>22<!-- -->%</span></p><p class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-secondary leading-5 mt-1">As of late July, market expectations increased for a 25 basis point rate hike at the September FOMC meeting, driven by persistent inflation pressures and geopolitical risks such as the conflict in the Middle East. The bond market reflected this with rising Treasury yields, and analysts highlighted the Fed&#x27;s internal debate described by Chair Warsh as a &quot;family fight&quot; over future rate policy.</p><div class="flex items-center gap-1.5 mt-3"><a href="https://thegistnotes.com/federal-reserve-faces-crucial-decision-on-interest-rates-amid-inflation-concerns/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" class="flex items-center justify-center rounded-md overflow-hidden bg-white" style="width:28px;height:28px;border:1px solid var(--color-pk-border)" data-state="closed" data-slot="tooltip-trigger"><img src="https://www.google.com/s2/favicons?domain=thegistnotes.com&amp;sz=64" alt="The Gist Notes" referrerPolicy="no-referrer" width="18" height="18" loading="lazy" style="object-fit:contain"/></a><a href="https://www.foxbusiness.com/economy/federal-reserve-interest-rate-decision-july-29-2026" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" class="flex items-center justify-center rounded-md overflow-hidden bg-white" style="width:28px;height:28px;border:1px solid var(--color-pk-border)" data-state="closed" data-slot="tooltip-trigger"><img src="https://www.google.com/s2/favicons?domain=www.foxbusiness.com&amp;sz=64" alt="Fox Business" referrerPolicy="no-referrer" width="18" height="18" loading="lazy" style="object-fit:contain"/></a></div></div></div><div class="flex gap-3 relative !h-0 !overflow-hidden !p-0 !m-0" style="content-visibility:hidden" inert="" aria-hidden="true"><div class="flex flex-col items-center shrink-0"><div class="w-px h-[7px] bg-pk-border"></div><div class="w-3 h-3 rounded-full border-2 border-pk-gray-300 bg-pk-surface shrink-0"></div><div class="w-px flex-1 bg-pk-border"></div></div><div class="flex-1 pb-8"><span class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary">Jul 27 2026</span><p class="text-body-base font-semibold text-pk-content-primary leading-5 mt-1">Market odds rise for 25 bps Fed rate hike in September amid inflation and geopolitical concerns</p><p class="flex items-center gap-1 text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary mt-0.5"><span>25 bps increase<!-- --> <!-- -->jumps to<!-- --> <!-- -->59<!-- -->%</span><span class="inline-flex items-center gap-0.5 font-semibold text-pk-content-accent-green"><svg width="8" height="8" viewBox="0 0 12 12" fill="none" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><path d="M6.51952 2.5C6.28858 2.1 5.71123 2.1 5.48029 2.5L1.84298 8.8C1.61204 9.2 1.90072 9.7 2.3626 9.7L9.63721 9.7C10.0991 9.7 10.3878 9.2 10.1568 8.8L6.51952 2.5Z" fill="currentColor"></path></svg>9<!-- -->%</span></p><p class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-secondary leading-5 mt-1">By late July 2026, market expectations for a 25 basis points rate increase in September rose to about 55%, driven by persistent inflation and tensions in the Middle East. This shift in sentiment contributed to the rising probability of the 25 bps increase outcome in the prediction market.</p><div class="flex items-center gap-1.5 mt-3"><a href="https://thegistnotes.com/federal-reserve-faces-crucial-decision-on-interest-rates-amid-inflation-concerns/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" class="flex items-center justify-center rounded-md overflow-hidden bg-white" style="width:28px;height:28px;border:1px solid var(--color-pk-border)" data-state="closed" data-slot="tooltip-trigger"><img src="https://www.google.com/s2/favicons?domain=thegistnotes.com&amp;sz=64" alt="The Gist Notes" referrerPolicy="no-referrer" width="18" height="18" loading="lazy" style="object-fit:contain"/></a></div></div></div><div class="flex gap-3 relative !h-0 !overflow-hidden !p-0 !m-0" style="content-visibility:hidden" inert="" aria-hidden="true"><div class="flex flex-col items-center shrink-0"><div class="w-px h-[7px] bg-pk-border"></div><div class="w-3 h-3 rounded-full border-2 border-pk-gray-300 bg-pk-surface shrink-0"></div><div class="w-px flex-1 bg-pk-border"></div></div><div class="flex-1 pb-8"><span class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary">Jul 27 2026</span><p class="text-body-base font-semibold text-pk-content-primary leading-5 mt-1">Market anticipates 25 bps rate hike in September amid hawkish Fed signals</p><p class="flex items-center gap-1 text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary mt-0.5"><span>25 bps increase<!-- --> <!-- -->jumps to<!-- --> <!-- -->48<!-- -->%</span><span class="inline-flex items-center gap-0.5 font-semibold text-pk-content-accent-green"><svg width="8" height="8" viewBox="0 0 12 12" fill="none" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><path d="M6.51952 2.5C6.28858 2.1 5.71123 2.1 5.48029 2.5L1.84298 8.8C1.61204 9.2 1.90072 9.7 2.3626 9.7L9.63721 9.7C10.0991 9.7 10.3878 9.2 10.1568 8.8L6.51952 2.5Z" fill="currentColor"></path></svg>10<!-- -->%</span></p><p class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-secondary leading-5 mt-1">Investor expectations shifted toward a 55% probability of a 25 bps increase at the September FOMC meeting, driven by hawkish comments from Fed officials and persistent inflation concerns, reflected in rising prices for the 25 bps increase outcome in prediction markets.</p><div class="flex items-center gap-1.5 mt-3"><a href="https://thegistnotes.com/federal-reserve-faces-crucial-decision-on-interest-rates-amid-inflation-concerns/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" class="flex items-center justify-center rounded-md overflow-hidden bg-white" style="width:28px;height:28px;border:1px solid var(--color-pk-border)" data-state="closed" data-slot="tooltip-trigger"><img src="https://www.google.com/s2/favicons?domain=thegistnotes.com&amp;sz=64" alt="The Gist Notes" referrerPolicy="no-referrer" width="18" height="18" loading="lazy" style="object-fit:contain"/></a></div></div></div><div class="flex gap-3 relative !h-0 !overflow-hidden !p-0 !m-0" style="content-visibility:hidden" inert="" aria-hidden="true"><div class="flex flex-col items-center shrink-0"><div class="w-px h-[7px] bg-pk-border"></div><div class="w-3 h-3 rounded-full border-2 border-pk-gray-300 bg-pk-surface shrink-0"></div><div class="w-px flex-1 bg-pk-border"></div></div><div class="flex-1 pb-8"><span class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary">Jul 27 2026</span><p class="text-body-base font-semibold text-pk-content-primary leading-5 mt-1">Rising geopolitical tensions and inflation concerns influence Fed rate hike expectations</p><p class="flex items-center gap-1 text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary mt-0.5"><span>25 bps increase<!-- --> <!-- -->jumps to<!-- --> <!-- -->45<!-- -->%</span><span class="inline-flex items-center gap-0.5 font-semibold text-pk-content-accent-green"><svg width="8" height="8" viewBox="0 0 12 12" fill="none" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><path d="M6.51952 2.5C6.28858 2.1 5.71123 2.1 5.48029 2.5L1.84298 8.8C1.61204 9.2 1.90072 9.7 2.3626 9.7L9.63721 9.7C10.0991 9.7 10.3878 9.2 10.1568 8.8L6.51952 2.5Z" fill="currentColor"></path></svg>9<!-- -->%</span></p><p class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-secondary leading-5 mt-1">Escalating tensions between the U.S. and Iran, along with persistent inflationary pressures, increased market expectations for a 25 basis point rate hike at the September Fed meeting. Analysts noted that the labor market remained resilient, and inflation risks were elevated, prompting investors to price in a higher likelihood of rate increases.</p><div class="flex items-center gap-1.5 mt-3"><a href="https://thegistnotes.com/federal-reserve-faces-crucial-decision-on-interest-rates-amid-inflation-concerns/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" class="flex items-center justify-center rounded-md overflow-hidden bg-white" style="width:28px;height:28px;border:1px solid var(--color-pk-border)" data-state="closed" data-slot="tooltip-trigger"><img src="https://www.google.com/s2/favicons?domain=thegistnotes.com&amp;sz=64" alt="The Gist Notes" referrerPolicy="no-referrer" width="18" height="18" loading="lazy" style="object-fit:contain"/></a></div></div></div><div class="flex gap-3 relative !h-0 !overflow-hidden !p-0 !m-0" style="content-visibility:hidden" inert="" aria-hidden="true"><div class="flex flex-col items-center shrink-0"><div class="w-px h-[7px] bg-pk-border"></div><div class="w-3 h-3 rounded-full border-2 border-pk-gray-300 bg-pk-surface shrink-0"></div><div class="w-px flex-1 bg-pk-border"></div></div><div class="flex-1 pb-8"><span class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary">Jul 27 2026</span><p class="text-body-base font-semibold text-pk-content-primary leading-5 mt-1">Rising market expectations for September Fed rate hike amid inflation and geopolitical tensions</p><p class="flex items-center gap-1 text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary mt-0.5"><span>25 bps increase<!-- --> <!-- -->surges to<!-- --> <!-- -->45<!-- -->%</span><span class="inline-flex items-center gap-0.5 font-semibold text-pk-content-accent-green"><svg width="8" height="8" viewBox="0 0 12 12" fill="none" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><path d="M6.51952 2.5C6.28858 2.1 5.71123 2.1 5.48029 2.5L1.84298 8.8C1.61204 9.2 1.90072 9.7 2.3626 9.7L9.63721 9.7C10.0991 9.7 10.3878 9.2 10.1568 8.8L6.51952 2.5Z" fill="currentColor"></path></svg>21<!-- -->%</span></p><p class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-secondary leading-5 mt-1">By late July, market data indicated a growing probability of a 25 bps rate increase in the September FOMC meeting, driven by persistent inflation pressures and geopolitical risks such as the US-Iran conflict. Analysts highlighted the Fed&#x27;s internal debates and the possibility of tightening monetary policy if inflation remains elevated.</p><div class="flex items-center gap-1.5 mt-3"><a href="https://thegistnotes.com/federal-reserve-faces-crucial-decision-on-interest-rates-amid-inflation-concerns/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" class="flex items-center justify-center rounded-md overflow-hidden bg-white" style="width:28px;height:28px;border:1px solid var(--color-pk-border)" data-state="closed" data-slot="tooltip-trigger"><img src="https://www.google.com/s2/favicons?domain=thegistnotes.com&amp;sz=64" alt="The Gist Notes" referrerPolicy="no-referrer" width="18" height="18" loading="lazy" style="object-fit:contain"/></a></div></div></div><div class="flex gap-3 relative !h-0 !overflow-hidden !p-0 !m-0" style="content-visibility:hidden" inert="" aria-hidden="true"><div class="flex flex-col items-center shrink-0"><div class="w-px h-[7px] bg-pk-border"></div><div class="w-3 h-3 rounded-full border-2 border-pk-gray-300 bg-pk-surface shrink-0"></div><div class="w-px flex-1 bg-pk-border"></div></div><div class="flex-1 pb-8"><span class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary">Jul 27 2026</span><p class="text-body-base font-semibold text-pk-content-primary leading-5 mt-1">Market Pricing Shows 55% Chance of 25 bps Fed Rate Hike in September 2026</p><p class="flex items-center gap-1 text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary mt-0.5"><span>25 bps increase<!-- --> <!-- -->jumps to<!-- --> <!-- -->36<!-- -->%</span><span class="inline-flex items-center gap-0.5 font-semibold text-pk-content-accent-green"><svg width="8" height="8" viewBox="0 0 12 12" fill="none" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><path d="M6.51952 2.5C6.28858 2.1 5.71123 2.1 5.48029 2.5L1.84298 8.8C1.61204 9.2 1.90072 9.7 2.3626 9.7L9.63721 9.7C10.0991 9.7 10.3878 9.2 10.1568 8.8L6.51952 2.5Z" fill="currentColor"></path></svg>8<!-- -->%</span></p><p class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-secondary leading-5 mt-1">As of late July, market data indicated a 55% probability of a 25 basis point rate increase at the September FOMC meeting, reflecting growing investor expectations for tightening monetary policy amid persistent inflation and geopolitical risks. This sentiment influenced the rising price for the 25 bps increase outcome in the prediction market.</p><div class="flex items-center gap-1.5 mt-3"><a href="https://thegistnotes.com/federal-reserve-faces-crucial-decision-on-interest-rates-amid-inflation-concerns/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" class="flex items-center justify-center rounded-md overflow-hidden bg-white" style="width:28px;height:28px;border:1px solid var(--color-pk-border)" data-state="closed" data-slot="tooltip-trigger"><img src="https://www.google.com/s2/favicons?domain=thegistnotes.com&amp;sz=64" alt="The Gist Notes" referrerPolicy="no-referrer" width="18" height="18" loading="lazy" style="object-fit:contain"/></a></div></div></div><div class="flex gap-3 relative !h-0 !overflow-hidden !p-0 !m-0" style="content-visibility:hidden" inert="" aria-hidden="true"><div class="flex flex-col items-center shrink-0"><div class="w-px h-[7px] bg-pk-border"></div><div class="w-3 h-3 rounded-full border-2 border-pk-gray-300 bg-pk-surface shrink-0"></div><div class="w-px flex-1 bg-pk-border"></div></div><div class="flex-1 pb-8"><span class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary">Jul 27 2026</span><p class="text-body-base font-semibold text-pk-content-primary leading-5 mt-1">Market anticipates Fed rate hike in September amid inflation and geopolitical tensions</p><p class="flex items-center gap-1 text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary mt-0.5"><span>25 bps increase<!-- --> <!-- -->jumps to<!-- --> <!-- -->37<!-- -->%</span><span class="inline-flex items-center gap-0.5 font-semibold text-pk-content-accent-green"><svg width="8" height="8" viewBox="0 0 12 12" fill="none" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><path d="M6.51952 2.5C6.28858 2.1 5.71123 2.1 5.48029 2.5L1.84298 8.8C1.61204 9.2 1.90072 9.7 2.3626 9.7L9.63721 9.7C10.0991 9.7 10.3878 9.2 10.1568 8.8L6.51952 2.5Z" fill="currentColor"></path></svg>6<!-- -->%</span></p><p class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-secondary leading-5 mt-1">As the September FOMC meeting approaches, market odds for a 25 bps rate hike increased to around 55%, reflecting concerns over inflation and geopolitical risks. This anticipation was driven by recent economic data and Fed officials&#x27; hawkish comments, impacting market pricing ahead of the meeting.</p><div class="flex items-center gap-1.5 mt-3"><a href="https://thegistnotes.com/federal-reserve-faces-crucial-decision-on-interest-rates-amid-inflation-concerns/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" class="flex items-center justify-center rounded-md overflow-hidden bg-white" style="width:28px;height:28px;border:1px solid var(--color-pk-border)" data-state="closed" data-slot="tooltip-trigger"><img src="https://www.google.com/s2/favicons?domain=thegistnotes.com&amp;sz=64" alt="The Gist Notes" referrerPolicy="no-referrer" width="18" height="18" loading="lazy" style="object-fit:contain"/></a></div></div></div><div class="flex gap-3 relative !h-0 !overflow-hidden !p-0 !m-0" style="content-visibility:hidden" inert="" aria-hidden="true"><div class="flex flex-col items-center shrink-0"><div class="w-px h-[7px] bg-pk-border"></div><div class="w-3 h-3 rounded-full border-2 border-pk-gray-300 bg-pk-surface shrink-0"></div><div class="w-px flex-1 bg-pk-border"></div></div><div class="flex-1 pb-8"><span class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary">Jul 27 2026</span><p class="text-body-base font-semibold text-pk-content-primary leading-5 mt-1">Investors anticipate Fed rate hike in September amid inflation and geopolitical tensions</p><p class="flex items-center gap-1 text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary mt-0.5"><span>25 bps increase<!-- --> <!-- -->jumps to<!-- --> <!-- -->54<!-- -->%</span><span class="inline-flex items-center gap-0.5 font-semibold text-pk-content-accent-green"><svg width="8" height="8" viewBox="0 0 12 12" fill="none" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><path d="M6.51952 2.5C6.28858 2.1 5.71123 2.1 5.48029 2.5L1.84298 8.8C1.61204 9.2 1.90072 9.7 2.3626 9.7L9.63721 9.7C10.0991 9.7 10.3878 9.2 10.1568 8.8L6.51952 2.5Z" fill="currentColor"></path></svg>13<!-- -->%</span></p><p class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-secondary leading-5 mt-1">By late July 2026, investors increasingly expected a 25 bps rate hike at the September FOMC meeting, driven by persistent inflation, energy price volatility from Middle East tensions, and a resilient labor market. Market data showed a 55% chance of a 25 bps increase and 26% chance of a 50+ bps hike, reflecting growing hawkish sentiment.</p><div class="flex items-center gap-1.5 mt-3"><a href="https://thegistnotes.com/federal-reserve-faces-crucial-decision-on-interest-rates-amid-inflation-concerns/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" class="flex items-center justify-center rounded-md overflow-hidden bg-white" style="width:28px;height:28px;border:1px solid var(--color-pk-border)" data-state="closed" data-slot="tooltip-trigger"><img src="https://www.google.com/s2/favicons?domain=thegistnotes.com&amp;sz=64" alt="The Gist Notes" referrerPolicy="no-referrer" width="18" height="18" loading="lazy" style="object-fit:contain"/></a></div></div></div><div class="flex gap-3 relative !h-0 !overflow-hidden !p-0 !m-0" style="content-visibility:hidden" inert="" aria-hidden="true"><div class="flex flex-col items-center shrink-0"><div class="w-px h-[7px] bg-pk-border"></div><div class="w-3 h-3 rounded-full border-2 border-pk-gray-300 bg-pk-surface shrink-0"></div><div class="w-px flex-1 bg-pk-border"></div></div><div class="flex-1 pb-8"><span class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary">Jul 16 2026</span><p class="text-body-base font-semibold text-pk-content-primary leading-5 mt-1">Fed Vice Chair Jefferson Discusses Navigating Economic Shocks Amid Inflation and Geopolitical Risks</p><p class="flex items-center gap-1 text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary mt-0.5"><span>No change<!-- --> <!-- -->dips to<!-- --> <!-- -->43<!-- -->%</span><span class="inline-flex items-center gap-0.5 font-semibold text-pk-content-accent-red"><svg width="8" height="8" viewBox="0 0 12 12" fill="none" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><path d="M6.51952 9.5C6.28858 9.9 5.71123 9.9 5.48029 9.5L1.84298 3.2C1.61204 2.8 1.90072 2.3 2.3626 2.3L9.63721 2.3C10.0991 2.3 10.3878 2.8 10.1568 3.2L6.51952 9.5Z" fill="currentColor"></path></svg>2<!-- -->%</span></p><p class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-secondary leading-5 mt-1">Vice Chair Philip N. Jefferson highlighted the challenges the Fed faces balancing inflation control with economic growth amid ongoing geopolitical tensions and energy price volatility. His remarks underscored the Fed&#x27;s cautious approach and the conditional nature of future rate decisions, influencing market expectations for September.</p><div class="flex items-center gap-1.5 mt-3"><a href="https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents.htm" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" class="flex items-center justify-center rounded-md overflow-hidden bg-white" style="width:28px;height:28px;border:1px solid var(--color-pk-border)" data-state="closed" data-slot="tooltip-trigger"><img src="https://www.google.com/s2/favicons?domain=www.federalreserve.gov&amp;sz=64" alt="Federal Reserve" referrerPolicy="no-referrer" width="18" height="18" loading="lazy" style="object-fit:contain"/></a></div></div></div><div class="flex gap-3 relative !h-0 !overflow-hidden !p-0 !m-0" style="content-visibility:hidden" inert="" aria-hidden="true"><div class="flex flex-col items-center shrink-0"><div class="w-px h-[7px] bg-pk-border"></div><div class="w-3 h-3 rounded-full border-2 border-pk-gray-300 bg-pk-surface shrink-0"></div><div class="w-px flex-1 bg-pk-border"></div></div><div class="flex-1 pb-8"><span class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary">Jul 15 2026</span><p class="text-body-base font-semibold text-pk-content-primary leading-5 mt-1">Governor Lisa D. Cook highlights strong GDP growth and labor productivity</p><p class="flex items-center gap-1 text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary mt-0.5"><span>25 bps increase<!-- --> <!-- -->jumps to<!-- --> <!-- -->49<!-- -->%</span><span class="inline-flex items-center gap-0.5 font-semibold text-pk-content-accent-green"><svg width="8" height="8" viewBox="0 0 12 12" fill="none" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><path d="M6.51952 2.5C6.28858 2.1 5.71123 2.1 5.48029 2.5L1.84298 8.8C1.61204 9.2 1.90072 9.7 2.3626 9.7L9.63721 9.7C10.0991 9.7 10.3878 9.2 10.1568 8.8L6.51952 2.5Z" fill="currentColor"></path></svg>7<!-- -->%</span></p><p class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-secondary leading-5 mt-1">In a speech, Governor Cook reported that GDP growth in 2025 was 2.0% and forecasted 2.2% for 2026, exceeding prior expectations. She emphasized booming labor productivity, reinforcing the Fed&#x27;s view of a resilient economy, supporting the likelihood of a rate hike.</p><div class="flex items-center gap-1.5 mt-3"><a href="https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/cook20260715a.htm" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" class="flex items-center justify-center rounded-md overflow-hidden bg-white" style="width:28px;height:28px;border:1px solid var(--color-pk-border)" data-state="closed" data-slot="tooltip-trigger"><img src="https://www.google.com/s2/favicons?domain=www.federalreserve.gov&amp;sz=64" alt="Federal Reserve Board" referrerPolicy="no-referrer" width="18" height="18" loading="lazy" style="object-fit:contain"/></a></div></div></div><div class="flex gap-3 relative !h-0 !overflow-hidden !p-0 !m-0" style="content-visibility:hidden" inert="" aria-hidden="true"><div class="flex flex-col items-center shrink-0"><div class="w-px h-[7px] bg-pk-border"></div><div class="w-3 h-3 rounded-full border-2 border-pk-gray-300 bg-pk-surface shrink-0"></div><div class="w-px flex-1 bg-pk-border"></div></div><div class="flex-1 pb-8"><span class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary">Jul 15 2026</span><p class="text-body-base font-semibold text-pk-content-primary leading-5 mt-1">Federal Reserve Governor Cook Highlights Economic Resilience and Inflation Challenges</p><p class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-secondary leading-5 mt-1">Governor Cook&#x27;s speech emphasized stronger-than-expected GDP growth forecasts for 2026 and persistent inflation above target, driven by core goods prices and productivity growth. This reinforced market expectations that the Fed would maintain a cautious stance on rates, with potential hikes if inflation remains elevated.</p><div class="flex items-center gap-1.5 mt-3"><a href="https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/cook20260715a.htm" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" class="flex items-center justify-center rounded-md overflow-hidden bg-white" style="width:28px;height:28px;border:1px solid var(--color-pk-border)" data-state="closed" data-slot="tooltip-trigger"><img src="https://www.google.com/s2/favicons?domain=www.federalreserve.gov&amp;sz=64" alt="Federal Reserve" referrerPolicy="no-referrer" width="18" height="18" loading="lazy" style="object-fit:contain"/></a></div></div></div><div class="flex gap-3 relative !h-0 !overflow-hidden !p-0 !m-0" style="content-visibility:hidden" inert="" aria-hidden="true"><div class="flex flex-col items-center shrink-0"><div class="w-px h-[7px] bg-pk-border"></div><div class="w-3 h-3 rounded-full border-2 border-pk-gray-300 bg-pk-surface shrink-0"></div><div class="w-px flex-1 bg-pk-border"></div></div><div class="flex-1 pb-8"><span class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary">Jul 15 2026</span><p class="text-body-base font-semibold text-pk-content-primary leading-5 mt-1">Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook signals inflation risks outweigh employment concerns</p><p class="flex items-center gap-1 text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary mt-0.5"><span>25 bps increase<!-- --> <!-- -->jumps to<!-- --> <!-- -->53<!-- -->%</span><span class="inline-flex items-center gap-0.5 font-semibold text-pk-content-accent-green"><svg width="8" height="8" viewBox="0 0 12 12" fill="none" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><path d="M6.51952 2.5C6.28858 2.1 5.71123 2.1 5.48029 2.5L1.84298 8.8C1.61204 9.2 1.90072 9.7 2.3626 9.7L9.63721 9.7C10.0991 9.7 10.3878 9.2 10.1568 8.8L6.51952 2.5Z" fill="currentColor"></path></svg>8<!-- -->%</span></p><p class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-secondary leading-5 mt-1">In a speech on July 15, Governor Lisa Cook highlighted that inflation remains well above the Fed&#x27;s 2% target and supports maintaining restrictive monetary policy until stronger evidence of sustained disinflation emerges. This hawkish tone contributed to increased market pricing for a 25 bps rate hike.</p><div class="flex items-center gap-1.5 mt-3"><a href="https://www.coingabbar.com/en/crypto-currency-news/federal-reserve-news-inflation-risk-cook-fed-rate-cut-july-2026" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" class="flex items-center justify-center rounded-md overflow-hidden bg-white" style="width:28px;height:28px;border:1px solid var(--color-pk-border)" data-state="closed" data-slot="tooltip-trigger"><img src="https://www.google.com/s2/favicons?domain=www.coingabbar.com&amp;sz=64" alt="Coingabbar" referrerPolicy="no-referrer" width="18" height="18" loading="lazy" style="object-fit:contain"/></a></div></div></div><div class="flex gap-3 relative !h-0 !overflow-hidden !p-0 !m-0" style="content-visibility:hidden" inert="" aria-hidden="true"><div class="flex flex-col items-center shrink-0"><div class="w-px h-[7px] bg-pk-border"></div><div class="w-3 h-3 rounded-full border-2 border-pk-gray-300 bg-pk-surface shrink-0"></div><div class="w-px flex-1 bg-pk-border"></div></div><div class="flex-1 pb-8"><span class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary">Jul 15 2026</span><p class="text-body-base font-semibold text-pk-content-primary leading-5 mt-1">Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh signals hawkish stance amid inflation concerns</p><p class="flex items-center gap-1 text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary mt-0.5"><span>25 bps increase<!-- --> <!-- -->jumps to<!-- --> <!-- -->51<!-- -->%</span><span class="inline-flex items-center gap-0.5 font-semibold text-pk-content-accent-green"><svg width="8" height="8" viewBox="0 0 12 12" fill="none" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><path d="M6.51952 2.5C6.28858 2.1 5.71123 2.1 5.48029 2.5L1.84298 8.8C1.61204 9.2 1.90072 9.7 2.3626 9.7L9.63721 9.7C10.0991 9.7 10.3878 9.2 10.1568 8.8L6.51952 2.5Z" fill="currentColor"></path></svg>12<!-- -->%</span></p><p class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-secondary leading-5 mt-1">Chair Warsh emphasized the Fed&#x27;s commitment to price stability and rejected the idea of a pause in rate changes, reinforcing market expectations for a possible 25 bps rate hike in September. His testimony highlighted inflation risks and geopolitical uncertainties, influencing the rise in market pricing for a September increase.</p><div class="flex items-center gap-1.5 mt-3"><a href="https://polymarket.copilot.markets/event/fed-decision-in-september-762" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" class="flex items-center justify-center rounded-md overflow-hidden bg-white" style="width:28px;height:28px;border:1px solid var(--color-pk-border)" data-state="closed" data-slot="tooltip-trigger"><img src="https://www.google.com/s2/favicons?domain=polymarket.copilot.markets&amp;sz=64" alt="Polymarket" referrerPolicy="no-referrer" width="18" height="18" loading="lazy" style="object-fit:contain"/></a></div></div></div><div class="flex gap-3 relative !h-0 !overflow-hidden !p-0 !m-0" style="content-visibility:hidden" inert="" aria-hidden="true"><div class="flex flex-col items-center shrink-0"><div class="w-px h-[7px] bg-pk-border"></div><div class="w-3 h-3 rounded-full border-2 border-pk-gray-300 bg-pk-surface shrink-0"></div><div class="w-px flex-1 bg-pk-border"></div></div><div class="flex-1 pb-8"><span class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary">Jul 14 2026</span><p class="text-body-base font-semibold text-pk-content-primary leading-5 mt-1">Consumer Price Index shows biggest monthly decline in over six years in June</p><p class="flex items-center gap-1 text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary mt-0.5"><span>25 bps increase<!-- --> <!-- -->jumps to<!-- --> <!-- -->33<!-- -->%</span><span class="inline-flex items-center gap-0.5 font-semibold text-pk-content-accent-green"><svg width="8" height="8" viewBox="0 0 12 12" fill="none" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><path d="M6.51952 2.5C6.28858 2.1 5.71123 2.1 5.48029 2.5L1.84298 8.8C1.61204 9.2 1.90072 9.7 2.3626 9.7L9.63721 9.7C10.0991 9.7 10.3878 9.2 10.1568 8.8L6.51952 2.5Z" fill="currentColor"></path></svg>5<!-- -->%</span></p><p class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-secondary leading-5 mt-1">June&#x27;s CPI report revealed a 0.4% monthly decline, the largest since April 2020, driven by falling energy prices. Annual inflation slowed to 3.5%, easing pressure on the Fed but not enough to prompt immediate rate cuts. This data contributed to market expectations of a possible 25 bps hike in September rather than a cut.</p><div class="flex items-center gap-1.5 mt-3"><a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2026/07/14/consumer-price-index-inflation-report-june-2026.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" class="flex items-center justify-center rounded-md overflow-hidden bg-white" style="width:28px;height:28px;border:1px solid var(--color-pk-border)" data-state="closed" data-slot="tooltip-trigger"><img src="https://www.google.com/s2/favicons?domain=www.cnbc.com&amp;sz=64" alt="CNBC" referrerPolicy="no-referrer" width="18" height="18" loading="lazy" style="object-fit:contain"/></a></div></div></div><div class="flex gap-3 relative !h-0 !overflow-hidden !p-0 !m-0" style="content-visibility:hidden" inert="" aria-hidden="true"><div class="flex flex-col items-center shrink-0"><div class="w-px h-[7px] bg-pk-border"></div><div class="w-3 h-3 rounded-full border-2 border-pk-gray-300 bg-pk-surface shrink-0"></div><div class="w-px flex-1 bg-pk-border"></div></div><div class="flex-1 pb-8"><span class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary">Jul 14 2026</span><p class="text-body-base font-semibold text-pk-content-primary leading-5 mt-1">House Financial Services Committee Hears Fed Chair Warsh Testimony on Monetary Policy</p><p class="flex items-center gap-1 text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary mt-0.5"><span>25 bps increase<!-- --> <!-- -->jumps to<!-- --> <!-- -->51<!-- -->%</span><span class="inline-flex items-center gap-0.5 font-semibold text-pk-content-accent-green"><svg width="8" height="8" viewBox="0 0 12 12" fill="none" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><path d="M6.51952 2.5C6.28858 2.1 5.71123 2.1 5.48029 2.5L1.84298 8.8C1.61204 9.2 1.90072 9.7 2.3626 9.7L9.63721 9.7C10.0991 9.7 10.3878 9.2 10.1568 8.8L6.51952 2.5Z" fill="currentColor"></path></svg>13<!-- -->%</span></p><p class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-secondary leading-5 mt-1">Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh testified before the House Committee on Financial Services, emphasizing the Fed&#x27;s commitment to price stability and signaling a cautious but hawkish stance. This reinforced market expectations for a possible rate hike in September, contributing to the rise in the 25 bps increase contract price.</p><div class="flex items-center gap-1.5 mt-3"><a href="https://www.paulhastings.com/insights/ph-fedaction-financial-regulatory-updates-homepage/daily-financial-regulation-update-wednesday-july-15-2026" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" class="flex items-center justify-center rounded-md overflow-hidden bg-white" style="width:28px;height:28px;border:1px solid var(--color-pk-border)" data-state="closed" data-slot="tooltip-trigger"><img src="https://www.google.com/s2/favicons?domain=www.paulhastings.com&amp;sz=64" alt="Paul Hastings LLP" referrerPolicy="no-referrer" width="18" height="18" loading="lazy" style="object-fit:contain"/></a></div></div></div><div class="flex gap-3 relative !h-0 !overflow-hidden !p-0 !m-0" style="content-visibility:hidden" inert="" aria-hidden="true"><div class="flex flex-col items-center shrink-0"><div class="w-px h-[7px] bg-pk-border"></div><div class="w-3 h-3 rounded-full border-2 border-pk-gray-300 bg-pk-surface shrink-0"></div><div class="w-px flex-1 bg-pk-border"></div></div><div class="flex-1 pb-8"><span class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary">Jul 14 2026</span><p class="text-body-base font-semibold text-pk-content-primary leading-5 mt-1">June 2026 CPI inflation falls to 3.5%, below expectations</p><p class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-secondary leading-5 mt-1">The June 2026 Consumer Price Index showed inflation cooling to 3.5%, driven by a sharp drop in energy prices, providing the Fed some breathing room but leaving uncertainty due to geopolitical risks and core inflation remaining sticky.</p><div class="flex items-center gap-1.5 mt-3"><a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2026/07/14/consumer-price-index-inflation-report-june-2026.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" class="flex items-center justify-center rounded-md overflow-hidden bg-white" style="width:28px;height:28px;border:1px solid var(--color-pk-border)" data-state="closed" data-slot="tooltip-trigger"><img src="https://www.google.com/s2/favicons?domain=www.cnbc.com&amp;sz=64" alt="CNBC" referrerPolicy="no-referrer" width="18" height="18" loading="lazy" style="object-fit:contain"/></a></div></div></div><div class="flex gap-3 relative !h-0 !overflow-hidden !p-0 !m-0" style="content-visibility:hidden" inert="" aria-hidden="true"><div class="flex flex-col items-center shrink-0"><div class="w-px h-[7px] bg-pk-border"></div><div class="w-3 h-3 rounded-full border-2 border-pk-gray-300 bg-pk-surface shrink-0"></div><div class="w-px flex-1 bg-pk-border"></div></div><div class="flex-1 pb-8"><span class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary">Jul 14 2026</span><p class="text-body-base font-semibold text-pk-content-primary leading-5 mt-1">Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh Signals Hawkish Stance in July Speeches</p><p class="flex items-center gap-1 text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary mt-0.5"><span>25 bps increase<!-- --> <!-- -->surges to<!-- --> <!-- -->38<!-- -->%</span><span class="inline-flex items-center gap-0.5 font-semibold text-pk-content-accent-green"><svg width="8" height="8" viewBox="0 0 12 12" fill="none" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><path d="M6.51952 2.5C6.28858 2.1 5.71123 2.1 5.48029 2.5L1.84298 8.8C1.61204 9.2 1.90072 9.7 2.3626 9.7L9.63721 9.7C10.0991 9.7 10.3878 9.2 10.1568 8.8L6.51952 2.5Z" fill="currentColor"></path></svg>22<!-- -->%</span></p><p class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-secondary leading-5 mt-1">In speeches during July 2026, Chair Warsh emphasized the Fed&#x27;s focus on price stability and the challenges posed by inflation and geopolitical risks, contributing to market expectations of a possible rate hike in September.</p><div class="flex items-center gap-1.5 mt-3"><a href="https://www.paulhastings.com/insights/ph-fedaction-financial-regulatory-updates-homepage/daily-financial-regulation-update-wednesday-july-15-2026" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" class="flex items-center justify-center rounded-md overflow-hidden bg-white" style="width:28px;height:28px;border:1px solid var(--color-pk-border)" data-state="closed" data-slot="tooltip-trigger"><img src="https://www.google.com/s2/favicons?domain=www.paulhastings.com&amp;sz=64" alt="Paul Hastings LLP" referrerPolicy="no-referrer" width="18" height="18" loading="lazy" style="object-fit:contain"/></a></div></div></div><div class="flex gap-3 relative !h-0 !overflow-hidden !p-0 !m-0" style="content-visibility:hidden" inert="" aria-hidden="true"><div class="flex flex-col items-center shrink-0"><div class="w-px h-[7px] bg-pk-border"></div><div class="w-3 h-3 rounded-full border-2 border-pk-gray-300 bg-pk-surface shrink-0"></div><div class="w-px flex-1 bg-pk-border"></div></div><div class="flex-1 pb-8"><span class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary">Jul 14 2026</span><p class="text-body-base font-semibold text-pk-content-primary leading-5 mt-1">Fed Chair Kevin Warsh testifies before House Financial Services Committee</p><p class="flex items-center gap-1 text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary mt-0.5"><span>25 bps increase<!-- --> <!-- -->jumps to<!-- --> <!-- -->49<!-- -->%</span><span class="inline-flex items-center gap-0.5 font-semibold text-pk-content-accent-green"><svg width="8" height="8" viewBox="0 0 12 12" fill="none" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><path d="M6.51952 2.5C6.28858 2.1 5.71123 2.1 5.48029 2.5L1.84298 8.8C1.61204 9.2 1.90072 9.7 2.3626 9.7L9.63721 9.7C10.0991 9.7 10.3878 9.2 10.1568 8.8L6.51952 2.5Z" fill="currentColor"></path></svg>13<!-- -->%</span></p><p class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-secondary leading-5 mt-1">Kevin Warsh testified emphasizing the Fed&#x27;s commitment to price stability and signaling that interest rate hikes may be necessary if inflation does not cool. This reinforced market expectations for a 25 bps increase in the near future, contributing to rising probabilities for a rate hike in September.</p><div class="flex items-center gap-1.5 mt-3"><a href="https://www.paulhastings.com/insights/ph-fedaction-financial-regulatory-updates-homepage/daily-financial-regulation-update-wednesday-july-15-2026" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" class="flex items-center justify-center rounded-md overflow-hidden bg-white" style="width:28px;height:28px;border:1px solid var(--color-pk-border)" data-state="closed" data-slot="tooltip-trigger"><img src="https://www.google.com/s2/favicons?domain=www.paulhastings.com&amp;sz=64" alt="Paul Hastings LLP" referrerPolicy="no-referrer" width="18" height="18" loading="lazy" style="object-fit:contain"/></a></div></div></div><div class="flex gap-3 relative !h-0 !overflow-hidden !p-0 !m-0" style="content-visibility:hidden" inert="" aria-hidden="true"><div class="flex flex-col items-center shrink-0"><div class="w-px h-[7px] bg-pk-border"></div><div class="w-3 h-3 rounded-full border-2 border-pk-gray-300 bg-pk-surface shrink-0"></div><div class="w-px flex-1 bg-pk-border"></div></div><div class="flex-1 pb-8"><span class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary">Jul 14 2026</span><p class="text-body-base font-semibold text-pk-content-primary leading-5 mt-1">June CPI Inflation Falls to 3.5%, Below Forecast</p><p class="flex items-center gap-1 text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary mt-0.5"><span>No change<!-- --> <!-- -->dips to<!-- --> <!-- -->39<!-- -->%</span><span class="inline-flex items-center gap-0.5 font-semibold text-pk-content-accent-red"><svg width="8" height="8" viewBox="0 0 12 12" fill="none" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><path d="M6.51952 9.5C6.28858 9.9 5.71123 9.9 5.48029 9.5L1.84298 3.2C1.61204 2.8 1.90072 2.3 2.3626 2.3L9.63721 2.3C10.0991 2.3 10.3878 2.8 10.1568 3.2L6.51952 9.5Z" fill="currentColor"></path></svg>2<!-- -->%</span></p><p class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-secondary leading-5 mt-1">The Consumer Price Index for June 2026 showed a decline in inflation to 3.5%, below expectations, but core shelter inflation remained elevated. This data was closely watched ahead of the July FOMC meeting and influenced market expectations for the Fed&#x27;s rate decision.</p><div class="flex items-center gap-1.5 mt-3"><a href="https://www.financecalendar.com/event/us-cpi-report-july-2026/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" class="flex items-center justify-center rounded-md overflow-hidden bg-white" style="width:28px;height:28px;border:1px solid var(--color-pk-border)" data-state="closed" data-slot="tooltip-trigger"><img src="https://www.google.com/s2/favicons?domain=www.financecalendar.com&amp;sz=64" alt="Finance Calendar" referrerPolicy="no-referrer" width="18" height="18" loading="lazy" style="object-fit:contain"/></a></div></div></div><div class="flex gap-3 relative !h-0 !overflow-hidden !p-0 !m-0" style="content-visibility:hidden" inert="" aria-hidden="true"><div class="flex flex-col items-center shrink-0"><div class="w-px h-[7px] bg-pk-border"></div><div class="w-3 h-3 rounded-full border-2 border-pk-gray-300 bg-pk-surface shrink-0"></div><div class="w-px flex-1 bg-pk-border"></div></div><div class="flex-1 pb-8"><span class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary">Jul 14 2026</span><p class="text-body-base font-semibold text-pk-content-primary leading-5 mt-1">Fed Officials Deliver Speeches Highlighting Inflation Persistence and Economic Outlook</p><p class="flex items-center gap-1 text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary mt-0.5"><span>25 bps increase<!-- --> <!-- -->rises to<!-- --> <!-- -->39<!-- -->%</span><span class="inline-flex items-center gap-0.5 font-semibold text-pk-content-accent-green"><svg width="8" height="8" viewBox="0 0 12 12" fill="none" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><path d="M6.51952 2.5C6.28858 2.1 5.71123 2.1 5.48029 2.5L1.84298 8.8C1.61204 9.2 1.90072 9.7 2.3626 9.7L9.63721 9.7C10.0991 9.7 10.3878 9.2 10.1568 8.8L6.51952 2.5Z" fill="currentColor"></path></svg>2<!-- -->%</span></p><p class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-secondary leading-5 mt-1">Several Federal Reserve officials, including Vice Chair Michelle Bowman and Governor Michael Barr, gave speeches emphasizing the challenges of persistent inflation and the Fed&#x27;s commitment to price stability. These communications reinforced market expectations for a cautious approach, supporting the probability of a rate hike later in 2026.</p><div class="flex items-center gap-1.5 mt-3"><a href="https://www.paulhastings.com/insights/ph-fedaction-financial-regulatory-updates-homepage/daily-financial-regulation-update-wednesday-july-15-2026" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" class="flex items-center justify-center rounded-md overflow-hidden bg-white" style="width:28px;height:28px;border:1px solid var(--color-pk-border)" data-state="closed" data-slot="tooltip-trigger"><img src="https://www.google.com/s2/favicons?domain=www.paulhastings.com&amp;sz=64" alt="Paul Hastings LLP" referrerPolicy="no-referrer" width="18" height="18" loading="lazy" style="object-fit:contain"/></a></div></div></div><div class="flex gap-3 relative !h-0 !overflow-hidden !p-0 !m-0" style="content-visibility:hidden" inert="" aria-hidden="true"><div class="flex flex-col items-center shrink-0"><div class="w-px h-[7px] bg-pk-border"></div><div class="w-3 h-3 rounded-full border-2 border-pk-gray-300 bg-pk-surface shrink-0"></div><div class="w-px flex-1 bg-pk-border"></div></div><div class="flex-1 pb-8"><span class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary">Jul 14 2026</span><p class="text-body-base font-semibold text-pk-content-primary leading-5 mt-1">June CPI Data Shows Inflation Remains Elevated at 3.4% Annual Rate</p><p class="flex items-center gap-1 text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary mt-0.5"><span>25 bps increase<!-- --> <!-- -->surges to<!-- --> <!-- -->38<!-- -->%</span><span class="inline-flex items-center gap-0.5 font-semibold text-pk-content-accent-green"><svg width="8" height="8" viewBox="0 0 12 12" fill="none" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><path d="M6.51952 2.5C6.28858 2.1 5.71123 2.1 5.48029 2.5L1.84298 8.8C1.61204 9.2 1.90072 9.7 2.3626 9.7L9.63721 9.7C10.0991 9.7 10.3878 9.2 10.1568 8.8L6.51952 2.5Z" fill="currentColor"></path></svg>22<!-- -->%</span></p><p class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-secondary leading-5 mt-1">The Consumer Price Index for June 2026 indicated inflation at 3.4% annually, slightly down from May but still above the Fed&#x27;s 2% target, reinforcing expectations for continued vigilance on inflation and potential rate hikes.</p><div class="flex items-center gap-1.5 mt-3"><a href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/tylerroush/2026/07/30/feds-benchmark-inflation-measure-cooled-last-month-but-us-economy-slowed-in-second-quarter/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" class="flex items-center justify-center rounded-md overflow-hidden bg-white" style="width:28px;height:28px;border:1px solid var(--color-pk-border)" data-state="closed" data-slot="tooltip-trigger"><img src="https://www.google.com/s2/favicons?domain=www.forbes.com&amp;sz=64" alt="Forbes" referrerPolicy="no-referrer" width="18" height="18" loading="lazy" style="object-fit:contain"/></a></div></div></div><div class="flex gap-3 relative !h-0 !overflow-hidden !p-0 !m-0" style="content-visibility:hidden" inert="" aria-hidden="true"><div class="flex flex-col items-center shrink-0"><div class="w-px h-[7px] bg-pk-border"></div><div class="w-3 h-3 rounded-full border-2 border-pk-gray-300 bg-pk-surface shrink-0"></div><div class="w-px flex-1 bg-pk-border"></div></div><div class="flex-1 pb-8"><span class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary">Jul 14 2026</span><p class="text-body-base font-semibold text-pk-content-primary leading-5 mt-1">June CPI report shows inflation falls to 3.5%, but core shelter inflation remains elevated</p><p class="flex items-center gap-1 text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary mt-0.5"><span>No change<!-- --> <!-- -->dips to<!-- --> <!-- -->59<!-- -->%</span><span class="inline-flex items-center gap-0.5 font-semibold text-pk-content-accent-red"><svg width="8" height="8" viewBox="0 0 12 12" fill="none" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><path d="M6.51952 9.5C6.28858 9.9 5.71123 9.9 5.48029 9.5L1.84298 3.2C1.61204 2.8 1.90072 2.3 2.3626 2.3L9.63721 2.3C10.0991 2.3 10.3878 2.8 10.1568 3.2L6.51952 9.5Z" fill="currentColor"></path></svg>2<!-- -->%</span></p><p class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-secondary leading-5 mt-1">The July 14 release of June CPI data showed a decline in headline inflation to 3.5%, below forecasts, but core shelter inflation stayed high, indicating ongoing inflationary pressures that support the Fed&#x27;s cautious stance on rate changes.</p><div class="flex items-center gap-1.5 mt-3"><a href="https://www.financecalendar.com/event/us-cpi-report-july-2026/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" class="flex items-center justify-center rounded-md overflow-hidden bg-white" style="width:28px;height:28px;border:1px solid var(--color-pk-border)" data-state="closed" data-slot="tooltip-trigger"><img src="https://www.google.com/s2/favicons?domain=www.financecalendar.com&amp;sz=64" alt="Finance Calendar" referrerPolicy="no-referrer" width="18" height="18" loading="lazy" style="object-fit:contain"/></a></div></div></div><div class="flex gap-3 relative !h-0 !overflow-hidden !p-0 !m-0" style="content-visibility:hidden" inert="" aria-hidden="true"><div class="flex flex-col items-center shrink-0"><div class="w-px h-[7px] bg-pk-border"></div><div class="w-3 h-3 rounded-full border-2 border-pk-gray-300 bg-pk-surface shrink-0"></div><div class="w-px flex-1 bg-pk-border"></div></div><div class="flex-1 pb-8"><span class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary">Jul 14 2026</span><p class="text-body-base font-semibold text-pk-content-primary leading-5 mt-1">Chairman Warsh Presents Semiannual Monetary Policy Report to Congress</p><p class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-secondary leading-5 mt-1">Chairman Kevin Warsh presented the semiannual Monetary Policy Report outlining the Fed&#x27;s cautious stance on inflation and economic conditions. The report reinforced market expectations of steady or slightly higher rates, supporting the increased probability of a 25 bps hike in September.</p><div class="flex items-center gap-1.5 mt-3"><a href="https://coinfomania.com/chairman-warsh-reveals-key-insights-from-monetary-policy-report/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" class="flex items-center justify-center rounded-md overflow-hidden bg-white" style="width:28px;height:28px;border:1px solid var(--color-pk-border)" data-state="closed" data-slot="tooltip-trigger"><img src="https://www.google.com/s2/favicons?domain=coinfomania.com&amp;sz=64" alt="Coinfomania" referrerPolicy="no-referrer" width="18" height="18" loading="lazy" style="object-fit:contain"/></a></div></div></div><div class="flex gap-3 relative !h-0 !overflow-hidden !p-0 !m-0" style="content-visibility:hidden" inert="" aria-hidden="true"><div class="flex flex-col items-center shrink-0"><div class="w-px h-[7px] bg-pk-border"></div><div class="w-3 h-3 rounded-full border-2 border-pk-gray-300 bg-pk-surface shrink-0"></div><div class="w-px flex-1 bg-pk-border"></div></div><div class="flex-1 pb-8"><span class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary">Jul 14 2026</span><p class="text-body-base font-semibold text-pk-content-primary leading-5 mt-1">Chairman Kevin Warsh presents semiannual Monetary Policy Report to Congress</p><p class="flex items-center gap-1 text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary mt-0.5"><span>25 bps increase<!-- --> <!-- -->surges to<!-- --> <!-- -->51<!-- -->%</span><span class="inline-flex items-center gap-0.5 font-semibold text-pk-content-accent-green"><svg width="8" height="8" viewBox="0 0 12 12" fill="none" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><path d="M6.51952 2.5C6.28858 2.1 5.71123 2.1 5.48029 2.5L1.84298 8.8C1.61204 9.2 1.90072 9.7 2.3626 9.7L9.63721 9.7C10.0991 9.7 10.3878 9.2 10.1568 8.8L6.51952 2.5Z" fill="currentColor"></path></svg>15<!-- -->%</span></p><p class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-secondary leading-5 mt-1">Chairman Warsh&#x27;s report underscored the Fed&#x27;s commitment to price stability and maximum employment, signaling a hawkish stance that influenced market pricing toward a September rate increase.</p><div class="flex items-center gap-1.5 mt-3"><a href="https://coinfomania.com/chairman-warsh-reveals-key-insights-from-monetary-policy-report/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" class="flex items-center justify-center rounded-md overflow-hidden bg-white" style="width:28px;height:28px;border:1px solid var(--color-pk-border)" data-state="closed" data-slot="tooltip-trigger"><img src="https://www.google.com/s2/favicons?domain=coinfomania.com&amp;sz=64" alt="Coinfomania" referrerPolicy="no-referrer" width="18" height="18" loading="lazy" style="object-fit:contain"/></a></div></div></div><div class="flex gap-3 relative !h-0 !overflow-hidden !p-0 !m-0" style="content-visibility:hidden" inert="" aria-hidden="true"><div class="flex flex-col items-center shrink-0"><div class="w-px h-[7px] bg-pk-border"></div><div class="w-3 h-3 rounded-full border-2 border-pk-gray-300 bg-pk-surface shrink-0"></div><div class="w-px flex-1 bg-pk-border"></div></div><div class="flex-1 pb-8"><span class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary">Jul 13 2026</span><p class="text-body-base font-semibold text-pk-content-primary leading-5 mt-1">Governor Cook warns inflation remains above expectations for 2026</p><p class="flex items-center gap-1 text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary mt-0.5"><span>25 bps increase<!-- --> <!-- -->surges to<!-- --> <!-- -->53<!-- -->%</span><span class="inline-flex items-center gap-0.5 font-semibold text-pk-content-accent-green"><svg width="8" height="8" viewBox="0 0 12 12" fill="none" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><path d="M6.51952 2.5C6.28858 2.1 5.71123 2.1 5.48029 2.5L1.84298 8.8C1.61204 9.2 1.90072 9.7 2.3626 9.7L9.63721 9.7C10.0991 9.7 10.3878 9.2 10.1568 8.8L6.51952 2.5Z" fill="currentColor"></path></svg>28<!-- -->%</span></p><p class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-secondary leading-5 mt-1">Governor Lisa Cook highlighted that headline and core inflation for 2026 are running about 1 percentage point higher than expected, driven by core goods prices rising at a 5% annual pace, reinforcing the Fed&#x27;s hawkish stance and market anticipation of a rate hike.</p><div class="flex items-center gap-1.5 mt-3"><a href="https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/cook20260715a.htm" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" class="flex items-center justify-center rounded-md overflow-hidden bg-white" style="width:28px;height:28px;border:1px solid var(--color-pk-border)" data-state="closed" data-slot="tooltip-trigger"><img src="https://www.google.com/s2/favicons?domain=www.federalreserve.gov&amp;sz=64" alt="Federal Reserve" referrerPolicy="no-referrer" width="18" height="18" loading="lazy" style="object-fit:contain"/></a></div></div></div><div class="flex gap-3 relative !h-0 !overflow-hidden !p-0 !m-0" style="content-visibility:hidden" inert="" aria-hidden="true"><div class="flex flex-col items-center shrink-0"><div class="w-px h-[7px] bg-pk-border"></div><div class="w-3 h-3 rounded-full border-2 border-pk-gray-300 bg-pk-surface shrink-0"></div><div class="w-px flex-1 bg-pk-border"></div></div><div class="flex-1 pb-8"><span class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary">Jul 13 2026</span><p class="text-body-base font-semibold text-pk-content-primary leading-5 mt-1">Speech by Governor Cook emphasizes resilient economic growth and inflation outlook</p><p class="flex items-center gap-1 text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary mt-0.5"><span>No change<!-- --> <!-- -->rises to<!-- --> <!-- -->59<!-- -->%</span><span class="inline-flex items-center gap-0.5 font-semibold text-pk-content-accent-green"><svg width="8" height="8" viewBox="0 0 12 12" fill="none" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><path d="M6.51952 2.5C6.28858 2.1 5.71123 2.1 5.48029 2.5L1.84298 8.8C1.61204 9.2 1.90072 9.7 2.3626 9.7L9.63721 9.7C10.0991 9.7 10.3878 9.2 10.1568 8.8L6.51952 2.5Z" fill="currentColor"></path></svg>2<!-- -->%</span></p><p class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-secondary leading-5 mt-1">Governor Cook highlighted stronger-than-expected GDP growth and inflation forecasts, reinforcing expectations that the Fed would maintain or cautiously adjust rates, influencing market sentiment toward no change or a modest hike.</p><div class="flex items-center gap-1.5 mt-3"><a href="https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/cook20260715a.htm" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" class="flex items-center justify-center rounded-md overflow-hidden bg-white" style="width:28px;height:28px;border:1px solid var(--color-pk-border)" data-state="closed" data-slot="tooltip-trigger"><img src="https://www.google.com/s2/favicons?domain=www.federalreserve.gov&amp;sz=64" alt="Federal Reserve Board" referrerPolicy="no-referrer" width="18" height="18" loading="lazy" style="object-fit:contain"/></a></div></div></div><div class="flex gap-3 relative !h-0 !overflow-hidden !p-0 !m-0" style="content-visibility:hidden" inert="" aria-hidden="true"><div class="flex flex-col items-center shrink-0"><div class="w-px h-[7px] bg-pk-border"></div><div class="w-3 h-3 rounded-full border-2 border-pk-gray-300 bg-pk-surface shrink-0"></div><div class="w-px flex-1 bg-pk-border"></div></div><div class="flex-1 pb-8"><span class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary">Jul 13 2026</span><p class="text-body-base font-semibold text-pk-content-primary leading-5 mt-1">Federal Reserve Officials Deliver Hawkish Speeches Highlighting Inflation Risks</p><p class="flex items-center gap-1 text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary mt-0.5"><span>25 bps increase<!-- --> <!-- -->jumps to<!-- --> <!-- -->51<!-- -->%</span><span class="inline-flex items-center gap-0.5 font-semibold text-pk-content-accent-green"><svg width="8" height="8" viewBox="0 0 12 12" fill="none" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><path d="M6.51952 2.5C6.28858 2.1 5.71123 2.1 5.48029 2.5L1.84298 8.8C1.61204 9.2 1.90072 9.7 2.3626 9.7L9.63721 9.7C10.0991 9.7 10.3878 9.2 10.1568 8.8L6.51952 2.5Z" fill="currentColor"></path></svg>13<!-- -->%</span></p><p class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-secondary leading-5 mt-1">Federal Reserve Board Governor Christopher J. Waller and Vice Chair Michelle W. Bowman gave speeches emphasizing persistent inflation risks and the need for cautious monetary policy. These remarks contributed to market expectations of a potential rate hike later in 2026, increasing the probability of a 25 bps increase in September.</p><div class="flex items-center gap-1.5 mt-3"><a href="https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/waller20260713a.htm" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" class="flex items-center justify-center rounded-md overflow-hidden bg-white" style="width:28px;height:28px;border:1px solid var(--color-pk-border)" data-state="closed" data-slot="tooltip-trigger"><img src="https://www.google.com/s2/favicons?domain=www.federalreserve.gov&amp;sz=64" alt="Federal Reserve Board" referrerPolicy="no-referrer" width="18" height="18" loading="lazy" style="object-fit:contain"/></a><a href="https://www.paulhastings.com/insights/ph-fedaction-financial-regulatory-updates-homepage/daily-financial-regulation-update-tuesday-july-14-2026" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" class="flex items-center justify-center rounded-md overflow-hidden bg-white" style="width:28px;height:28px;border:1px solid var(--color-pk-border)" data-state="closed" data-slot="tooltip-trigger"><img src="https://www.google.com/s2/favicons?domain=www.paulhastings.com&amp;sz=64" alt="Paul Hastings LLP" referrerPolicy="no-referrer" width="18" height="18" loading="lazy" style="object-fit:contain"/></a></div></div></div><div class="flex gap-3 relative !h-0 !overflow-hidden !p-0 !m-0" style="content-visibility:hidden" inert="" aria-hidden="true"><div class="flex flex-col items-center shrink-0"><div class="w-px h-[7px] bg-pk-border"></div><div class="w-3 h-3 rounded-full border-2 border-pk-gray-300 bg-pk-surface shrink-0"></div><div class="w-px flex-1 bg-pk-border"></div></div><div class="flex-1 pb-8"><span class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary">Jul 9 2026</span><p class="text-body-base font-semibold text-pk-content-primary leading-5 mt-1">Federal Reserve announces task forces to advance monetary policy conduct</p><p class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-secondary leading-5 mt-1">The Federal Reserve announced five task forces led by external advisers to examine key areas of monetary policy conduct. This initiative signaled a commitment to rigorous policy review and potential future adjustments, contributing to market anticipation of possible rate changes later in 2026.</p><div class="flex items-center gap-1.5 mt-3"><a href="https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20260709a.htm" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" class="flex items-center justify-center rounded-md overflow-hidden bg-white" style="width:28px;height:28px;border:1px solid var(--color-pk-border)" data-state="closed" data-slot="tooltip-trigger"><img src="https://www.google.com/s2/favicons?domain=www.federalreserve.gov&amp;sz=64" alt="Federal Reserve Board" referrerPolicy="no-referrer" width="18" height="18" loading="lazy" style="object-fit:contain"/></a></div></div></div><div class="flex gap-3 relative !h-0 !overflow-hidden !p-0 !m-0" style="content-visibility:hidden" inert="" aria-hidden="true"><div class="flex flex-col items-center shrink-0"><div class="w-px h-[7px] bg-pk-border"></div><div class="w-3 h-3 rounded-full border-2 border-pk-gray-300 bg-pk-surface shrink-0"></div><div class="w-px flex-1 bg-pk-border"></div></div><div class="flex-1 pb-8"><span class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary">Jul 7 2026</span><p class="text-body-base font-semibold text-pk-content-primary leading-5 mt-1">Markets anticipate imminent Fed rate hike amid persistent inflation and Warsh&#x27;s hawkish signals</p><p class="flex items-center gap-1 text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary mt-0.5"><span>25 bps increase<!-- --> <!-- -->jumps to<!-- --> <!-- -->37<!-- -->%</span><span class="inline-flex items-center gap-0.5 font-semibold text-pk-content-accent-green"><svg width="8" height="8" viewBox="0 0 12 12" fill="none" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><path d="M6.51952 2.5C6.28858 2.1 5.71123 2.1 5.48029 2.5L1.84298 8.8C1.61204 9.2 1.90072 9.7 2.3626 9.7L9.63721 9.7C10.0991 9.7 10.3878 9.2 10.1568 8.8L6.51952 2.5Z" fill="currentColor"></path></svg>12<!-- -->%</span></p><p class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-secondary leading-5 mt-1">Following the July CPI report and Fed Chair Warsh&#x27;s press conference, markets increasingly priced in a 25 bps rate hike in September due to ongoing inflation above target and the Fed&#x27;s commitment to price stability. Treasury yields rose sharply reflecting these expectations.</p><div class="flex items-center gap-1.5 mt-3"><a href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/simonmoore/2026/07/07/rate-hike-may-come-soon-on-market-estimates/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" class="flex items-center justify-center rounded-md overflow-hidden bg-white" style="width:28px;height:28px;border:1px solid var(--color-pk-border)" data-state="closed" data-slot="tooltip-trigger"><img src="https://www.google.com/s2/favicons?domain=www.forbes.com&amp;sz=64" alt="Forbes" referrerPolicy="no-referrer" width="18" height="18" loading="lazy" style="object-fit:contain"/></a></div></div></div><div class="flex gap-3 relative !h-0 !overflow-hidden !p-0 !m-0" style="content-visibility:hidden" inert="" aria-hidden="true"><div class="flex flex-col items-center shrink-0"><div class="w-px h-[7px] bg-pk-border"></div><div class="w-3 h-3 rounded-full border-2 border-pk-gray-300 bg-pk-surface shrink-0"></div><div class="w-px flex-1 bg-pk-border"></div></div><div class="flex-1 pb-8"><span class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary">Jul 7 2026</span><p class="text-body-base font-semibold text-pk-content-primary leading-5 mt-1">Market anticipates imminent rate hike following hawkish FOMC June statement</p><p class="flex items-center gap-1 text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary mt-0.5"><span>25 bps increase<!-- --> <!-- -->surges to<!-- --> <!-- -->40<!-- -->%</span><span class="inline-flex items-center gap-0.5 font-semibold text-pk-content-accent-green"><svg width="8" height="8" viewBox="0 0 12 12" fill="none" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><path d="M6.51952 2.5C6.28858 2.1 5.71123 2.1 5.48029 2.5L1.84298 8.8C1.61204 9.2 1.90072 9.7 2.3626 9.7L9.63721 9.7C10.0991 9.7 10.3878 9.2 10.1568 8.8L6.51952 2.5Z" fill="currentColor"></path></svg>24<!-- -->%</span></p><p class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-secondary leading-5 mt-1">Following the June FOMC statement emphasizing price stability and persistent inflation, markets began pricing in a high probability of a rate increase by September, reflecting uncertainty about the magnitude and timing of hikes.</p><div class="flex items-center gap-1.5 mt-3"><a href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/simonmoore/2026/07/07/rate-hike-may-come-soon-on-market-estimates/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" class="flex items-center justify-center rounded-md overflow-hidden bg-white" style="width:28px;height:28px;border:1px solid var(--color-pk-border)" data-state="closed" data-slot="tooltip-trigger"><img src="https://www.google.com/s2/favicons?domain=www.forbes.com&amp;sz=64" alt="Forbes" referrerPolicy="no-referrer" width="18" height="18" loading="lazy" style="object-fit:contain"/></a></div></div></div><div class="flex gap-3 relative !h-0 !overflow-hidden !p-0 !m-0" style="content-visibility:hidden" inert="" aria-hidden="true"><div class="flex flex-col items-center shrink-0"><div class="w-px h-[7px] bg-pk-border"></div><div class="w-3 h-3 rounded-full border-2 border-pk-gray-300 bg-pk-surface shrink-0"></div><div class="w-px flex-1 bg-pk-border"></div></div><div class="flex-1 pb-8"><span class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary">Jul 7 2026</span><p class="text-body-base font-semibold text-pk-content-primary leading-5 mt-1">Market speculation rises on possible Fed rate hike amid inflation concerns</p><p class="flex items-center gap-1 text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary mt-0.5"><span>25 bps increase<!-- --> <!-- -->surges to<!-- --> <!-- -->38<!-- -->%</span><span class="inline-flex items-center gap-0.5 font-semibold text-pk-content-accent-green"><svg width="8" height="8" viewBox="0 0 12 12" fill="none" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><path d="M6.51952 2.5C6.28858 2.1 5.71123 2.1 5.48029 2.5L1.84298 8.8C1.61204 9.2 1.90072 9.7 2.3626 9.7L9.63721 9.7C10.0991 9.7 10.3878 9.2 10.1568 8.8L6.51952 2.5Z" fill="currentColor"></path></svg>23<!-- -->%</span></p><p class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-secondary leading-5 mt-1">Following hotter inflation data and hawkish Fed tone, markets increased expectations for a rate hike by September, reflecting uncertainty about inflation trajectory and Fed policy.</p><div class="flex items-center gap-1.5 mt-3"><a href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/simonmoore/2026/07/07/rate-hike-may-come-soon-on-market-estimates/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" class="flex items-center justify-center rounded-md overflow-hidden bg-white" style="width:28px;height:28px;border:1px solid var(--color-pk-border)" data-state="closed" data-slot="tooltip-trigger"><img src="https://www.google.com/s2/favicons?domain=www.forbes.com&amp;sz=64" alt="Forbes" referrerPolicy="no-referrer" width="18" height="18" loading="lazy" style="object-fit:contain"/></a></div></div></div><div class="flex gap-3 relative !h-0 !overflow-hidden !p-0 !m-0" style="content-visibility:hidden" inert="" aria-hidden="true"><div class="flex flex-col items-center shrink-0"><div class="w-px h-[7px] bg-pk-border"></div><div class="w-3 h-3 rounded-full border-2 border-pk-gray-300 bg-pk-surface shrink-0"></div><div class="w-px flex-1 bg-pk-border"></div></div><div class="flex-1 pb-8"><span class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary">Jul 7 2026</span><p class="text-body-base font-semibold text-pk-content-primary leading-5 mt-1">Market Analysts Highlight Increased Probability of September Rate Hike</p><p class="flex items-center gap-1 text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary mt-0.5"><span>25 bps increase<!-- --> <!-- -->surges to<!-- --> <!-- -->54<!-- -->%</span><span class="inline-flex items-center gap-0.5 font-semibold text-pk-content-accent-green"><svg width="8" height="8" viewBox="0 0 12 12" fill="none" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><path d="M6.51952 2.5C6.28858 2.1 5.71123 2.1 5.48029 2.5L1.84298 8.8C1.61204 9.2 1.90072 9.7 2.3626 9.7L9.63721 9.7C10.0991 9.7 10.3878 9.2 10.1568 8.8L6.51952 2.5Z" fill="currentColor"></path></svg>23<!-- -->%</span></p><p class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-secondary leading-5 mt-1">Market commentary in early July emphasized a growing consensus that the Federal Reserve would likely raise interest rates in September due to persistent inflation and strong labor market data. This contributed to a significant increase in the market pricing for a 25 bps rate hike and a decline in expectations for no change or rate cuts.</p><div class="flex items-center gap-1.5 mt-3"><a href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/simonmoore/2026/07/07/rate-hike-may-come-soon-on-market-estimates/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" class="flex items-center justify-center rounded-md overflow-hidden bg-white" style="width:28px;height:28px;border:1px solid var(--color-pk-border)" data-state="closed" data-slot="tooltip-trigger"><img src="https://www.google.com/s2/favicons?domain=www.forbes.com&amp;sz=64" alt="Forbes" referrerPolicy="no-referrer" width="18" height="18" loading="lazy" style="object-fit:contain"/></a></div></div></div><div class="flex gap-3 relative !h-0 !overflow-hidden !p-0 !m-0" style="content-visibility:hidden" inert="" aria-hidden="true"><div class="flex flex-col items-center shrink-0"><div class="w-px h-[7px] bg-pk-border"></div><div class="w-3 h-3 rounded-full border-2 border-pk-gray-300 bg-pk-surface shrink-0"></div><div class="w-px flex-1 bg-pk-border"></div></div><div class="flex-1 pb-8"><span class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary">Jul 7 2026</span><p class="text-body-base font-semibold text-pk-content-primary leading-5 mt-1">New York Fed survey shows rising short- and medium-term inflation expectations in June</p><p class="flex items-center gap-1 text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary mt-0.5"><span>25 bps increase<!-- --> <!-- -->jumps to<!-- --> <!-- -->33<!-- -->%</span><span class="inline-flex items-center gap-0.5 font-semibold text-pk-content-accent-green"><svg width="8" height="8" viewBox="0 0 12 12" fill="none" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><path d="M6.51952 2.5C6.28858 2.1 5.71123 2.1 5.48029 2.5L1.84298 8.8C1.61204 9.2 1.90072 9.7 2.3626 9.7L9.63721 9.7C10.0991 9.7 10.3878 9.2 10.1568 8.8L6.51952 2.5Z" fill="currentColor"></path></svg>5<!-- -->%</span></p><p class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-secondary leading-5 mt-1">The New York Fed&#x27;s June survey indicated that households&#x27; inflation expectations increased at the one- and three-year horizons, reflecting concerns about persistent inflation. This reinforced the Fed&#x27;s cautious stance and market pricing for a potential rate hike in September.</p><div class="flex items-center gap-1.5 mt-3"><a href="https://www.newyorkfed.org/newsevents/news/research/2026/20260707" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" class="flex items-center justify-center rounded-md overflow-hidden bg-white" style="width:28px;height:28px;border:1px solid var(--color-pk-border)" data-state="closed" data-slot="tooltip-trigger"><img src="https://www.google.com/s2/favicons?domain=www.newyorkfed.org&amp;sz=64" alt="newyorkfed.org" referrerPolicy="no-referrer" width="18" height="18" loading="lazy" style="object-fit:contain"/></a></div></div></div><div class="flex gap-3 relative !h-0 !overflow-hidden !p-0 !m-0" style="content-visibility:hidden" inert="" aria-hidden="true"><div class="flex flex-col items-center shrink-0"><div class="w-px h-[7px] bg-pk-border"></div><div class="w-3 h-3 rounded-full border-2 border-pk-gray-300 bg-pk-surface shrink-0"></div><div class="w-px flex-1 bg-pk-border"></div></div><div class="flex-1 pb-8"><span class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary">Jul 2 2026</span><p class="text-body-base font-semibold text-pk-content-primary leading-5 mt-1">July jobs report shows weaker employment growth, reducing odds of immediate Fed hike</p><p class="flex items-center gap-1 text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary mt-0.5"><span>No change<!-- --> <!-- -->drops to<!-- --> <!-- -->70<!-- -->%</span><span class="inline-flex items-center gap-0.5 font-semibold text-pk-content-accent-red"><svg width="8" height="8" viewBox="0 0 12 12" fill="none" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><path d="M6.51952 9.5C6.28858 9.9 5.71123 9.9 5.48029 9.5L1.84298 3.2C1.61204 2.8 1.90072 2.3 2.3626 2.3L9.63721 2.3C10.0991 2.3 10.3878 2.8 10.1568 3.2L6.51952 9.5Z" fill="currentColor"></path></svg>6<!-- -->%</span></p><p class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-secondary leading-5 mt-1">The July 2026 employment report showed a decline of 23,000 jobs, signaling a weakening labor market. This data reduced market expectations for an immediate rate hike, supporting the case for the Fed to hold rates steady in the near term.</p><div class="flex items-center gap-1.5 mt-3"><a href="https://www.regardsofwallstreet.com/news/september-2026-fed-meeting-dates-hike-odds" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" class="flex items-center justify-center rounded-md overflow-hidden bg-white" style="width:28px;height:28px;border:1px solid var(--color-pk-border)" data-state="closed" data-slot="tooltip-trigger"><img src="https://www.google.com/s2/favicons?domain=www.regardsofwallstreet.com&amp;sz=64" alt="Regards of Wallstreet" referrerPolicy="no-referrer" width="18" height="18" loading="lazy" style="object-fit:contain"/></a></div></div></div><div class="flex gap-3 relative !h-0 !overflow-hidden !p-0 !m-0" style="content-visibility:hidden" inert="" aria-hidden="true"><div class="flex flex-col items-center shrink-0"><div class="w-px h-[7px] bg-pk-border"></div><div class="w-3 h-3 rounded-full border-2 border-pk-gray-300 bg-pk-surface shrink-0"></div><div class="w-px flex-1 bg-pk-border"></div></div><div class="flex-1 pb-8"><span class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary">Jul 2 2026</span><p class="text-body-base font-semibold text-pk-content-primary leading-5 mt-1">June jobs report shows 57,000 jobs added, unemployment at 4.2%</p><p class="flex items-center gap-1 text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary mt-0.5"><span>No change<!-- --> <!-- -->drops to<!-- --> <!-- -->67<!-- -->%</span><span class="inline-flex items-center gap-0.5 font-semibold text-pk-content-accent-red"><svg width="8" height="8" viewBox="0 0 12 12" fill="none" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><path d="M6.51952 9.5C6.28858 9.9 5.71123 9.9 5.48029 9.5L1.84298 3.2C1.61204 2.8 1.90072 2.3 2.3626 2.3L9.63721 2.3C10.0991 2.3 10.3878 2.8 10.1568 3.2L6.51952 9.5Z" fill="currentColor"></path></svg>8<!-- -->%</span></p><p class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-secondary leading-5 mt-1">The June employment report indicated continued job growth and a stable unemployment rate, supporting the Fed&#x27;s view of a resilient labor market. This data reduced immediate pressure for rate cuts and contributed to market expectations of steady rates in the near term.</p><div class="flex items-center gap-1.5 mt-3"><a href="https://racerpm.com/article/federal-reserve-fomc-statement-june-2026-interest-rates-inflation-and-economic-outlook-explained" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" class="flex items-center justify-center rounded-md overflow-hidden bg-white" style="width:28px;height:28px;border:1px solid var(--color-pk-border)" data-state="closed" data-slot="tooltip-trigger"><img src="https://www.google.com/s2/favicons?domain=racerpm.com&amp;sz=64" alt="racerpm.com" referrerPolicy="no-referrer" width="18" height="18" loading="lazy" style="object-fit:contain"/></a></div></div></div><div class="flex gap-3 relative !h-0 !overflow-hidden !p-0 !m-0" style="content-visibility:hidden" inert="" aria-hidden="true"><div class="flex flex-col items-center shrink-0"><div class="w-px h-[7px] bg-pk-border"></div><div class="w-3 h-3 rounded-full border-2 border-pk-gray-300 bg-pk-surface shrink-0"></div><div class="w-px flex-1 bg-pk-border"></div></div><div class="flex-1 pb-8"><span class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary">Jun 25 2026</span><p class="text-body-base font-semibold text-pk-content-primary leading-5 mt-1">US Core Inflation Rises to Highest Level Since 2023, Pressuring Fed for Rate Hike</p><p class="flex items-center gap-1 text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary mt-0.5"><span>25 bps increase<!-- --> <!-- -->rises to<!-- --> <!-- -->19<!-- -->%</span><span class="inline-flex items-center gap-0.5 font-semibold text-pk-content-accent-green"><svg width="8" height="8" viewBox="0 0 12 12" fill="none" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><path d="M6.51952 2.5C6.28858 2.1 5.71123 2.1 5.48029 2.5L1.84298 8.8C1.61204 9.2 1.90072 9.7 2.3626 9.7L9.63721 9.7C10.0991 9.7 10.3878 9.2 10.1568 8.8L6.51952 2.5Z" fill="currentColor"></path></svg>3<!-- -->%</span></p><p class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-secondary leading-5 mt-1">The US core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index, the Federal Reserve&#x27;s preferred inflation gauge, accelerated to 4.1% in May 2026, the highest since October 2023. This increase intensified pressure on the Fed to consider raising interest rates to combat persistent inflation.</p><div class="flex items-center gap-1.5 mt-3"><a href="https://www.astazi.ro/stiri/stire-inflatia-de-baza-din-sua-urca-la-4-1-cel-mai-ridicat-nivel-din-ultimii-aproape-trei-ani-si-pune-presiune-pe-fed-pentru-o-noua-majorare-de-dobanda-260527145.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" class="flex items-center justify-center rounded-md overflow-hidden bg-white" style="width:28px;height:28px;border:1px solid var(--color-pk-border)" data-state="closed" data-slot="tooltip-trigger"><img src="https://www.google.com/s2/favicons?domain=www.astazi.ro&amp;sz=64" alt="Ziarul-Financiar" referrerPolicy="no-referrer" width="18" height="18" loading="lazy" style="object-fit:contain"/></a></div></div></div><div class="flex gap-3 relative !h-0 !overflow-hidden !p-0 !m-0" style="content-visibility:hidden" inert="" aria-hidden="true"><div class="flex flex-col items-center shrink-0"><div class="w-px h-[7px] bg-pk-border"></div><div class="w-3 h-3 rounded-full border-2 border-pk-gray-300 bg-pk-surface shrink-0"></div><div class="w-px flex-1 bg-pk-border"></div></div><div class="flex-1 pb-8"><span class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary">Jun 25 2026</span><p class="text-body-base font-semibold text-pk-content-primary leading-5 mt-1">Federal Reserve Inflation Gauge Surges Above 4% in June 2026</p><p class="flex items-center gap-1 text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary mt-0.5"><span>25 bps increase<!-- --> <!-- -->surges to<!-- --> <!-- -->59<!-- -->%</span><span class="inline-flex items-center gap-0.5 font-semibold text-pk-content-accent-green"><svg width="8" height="8" viewBox="0 0 12 12" fill="none" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><path d="M6.51952 2.5C6.28858 2.1 5.71123 2.1 5.48029 2.5L1.84298 8.8C1.61204 9.2 1.90072 9.7 2.3626 9.7L9.63721 9.7C10.0991 9.7 10.3878 9.2 10.1568 8.8L6.51952 2.5Z" fill="currentColor"></path></svg>21<!-- -->%</span></p><p class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-secondary leading-5 mt-1">The Fed&#x27;s preferred inflation measure, the PCE price index, rose to 4.1% in June, the highest since April 2023, signaling persistent inflationary pressures. This development increased market expectations for a rate hike later in 2026 to combat inflation.</p><div class="flex items-center gap-1.5 mt-3"><a href="https://thegistnotes.com/federal-reserve-inflation-gauge-surges-above-4-in-june-2026/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" class="flex items-center justify-center rounded-md overflow-hidden bg-white" style="width:28px;height:28px;border:1px solid var(--color-pk-border)" data-state="closed" data-slot="tooltip-trigger"><img src="https://www.google.com/s2/favicons?domain=thegistnotes.com&amp;sz=64" alt="The Gist Notes" referrerPolicy="no-referrer" width="18" height="18" loading="lazy" style="object-fit:contain"/></a></div></div></div><div class="flex gap-3 relative !h-0 !overflow-hidden !p-0 !m-0" style="content-visibility:hidden" inert="" aria-hidden="true"><div class="flex flex-col items-center shrink-0"><div class="w-px h-[7px] bg-pk-border"></div><div class="w-3 h-3 rounded-full border-2 border-pk-gray-300 bg-pk-surface shrink-0"></div><div class="w-px flex-1 bg-pk-border"></div></div><div class="flex-1 pb-8"><span class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary">Jun 17 2026</span><p class="text-body-base font-semibold text-pk-content-primary leading-5 mt-1">Kevin Warsh confirmed as new Federal Reserve Chair, signaling hawkish policy stance</p><p class="flex items-center gap-1 text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary mt-0.5"><span>No change<!-- --> <!-- -->drops to<!-- --> <!-- -->70<!-- -->%</span><span class="inline-flex items-center gap-0.5 font-semibold text-pk-content-accent-red"><svg width="8" height="8" viewBox="0 0 12 12" fill="none" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><path d="M6.51952 9.5C6.28858 9.9 5.71123 9.9 5.48029 9.5L1.84298 3.2C1.61204 2.8 1.90072 2.3 2.3626 2.3L9.63721 2.3C10.0991 2.3 10.3878 2.8 10.1568 3.2L6.51952 9.5Z" fill="currentColor"></path></svg>5<!-- -->%</span></p><p class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-secondary leading-5 mt-1">Kevin Warsh was confirmed as the new Fed Chair, emphasizing a commitment to price stability and signaling a potential hawkish tilt in monetary policy. His inaugural FOMC meeting maintained rates but removed forward guidance, increasing market uncertainty about future moves.</p><div class="flex items-center gap-1.5 mt-3"><a href="https://www.bondbuyer.com/organization/federal-reserve" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" class="flex items-center justify-center rounded-md overflow-hidden bg-white" style="width:28px;height:28px;border:1px solid var(--color-pk-border)" data-state="closed" data-slot="tooltip-trigger"><img src="https://www.google.com/s2/favicons?domain=www.bondbuyer.com&amp;sz=64" alt="Bond Buyer" referrerPolicy="no-referrer" width="18" height="18" loading="lazy" style="object-fit:contain"/></a></div></div></div><div class="flex gap-3 relative !h-0 !overflow-hidden !p-0 !m-0" style="content-visibility:hidden" inert="" aria-hidden="true"><div class="flex flex-col items-center shrink-0"><div class="w-px h-[7px] bg-pk-border"></div><div class="w-3 h-3 rounded-full border-2 border-pk-gray-300 bg-pk-surface shrink-0"></div><div class="w-px flex-1 bg-pk-border"></div></div><div class="flex-1 pb-8"><span class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary">Jun 17 2026</span><p class="text-body-base font-semibold text-pk-content-primary leading-5 mt-1">Federal Reserve holds rates steady at June meeting amid Middle East uncertainty</p><p class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-secondary leading-5 mt-1">The FOMC unanimously voted to keep the federal funds rate target range at 3.50% to 3.75%, noting solid economic expansion despite elevated uncertainty from the Middle East conflict. Inflation remained above the 2% target, reinforcing the Fed&#x27;s commitment to price stability without immediate rate changes.</p><div class="flex items-center gap-1.5 mt-3"><a href="https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20260617a.htm" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" class="flex items-center justify-center rounded-md overflow-hidden bg-white" style="width:28px;height:28px;border:1px solid var(--color-pk-border)" data-state="closed" data-slot="tooltip-trigger"><img src="https://www.google.com/s2/favicons?domain=www.federalreserve.gov&amp;sz=64" alt="Federal Reserve Board" referrerPolicy="no-referrer" width="18" height="18" loading="lazy" style="object-fit:contain"/></a></div></div></div><div class="flex gap-3 relative !h-0 !overflow-hidden !p-0 !m-0" style="content-visibility:hidden" inert="" aria-hidden="true"><div class="flex flex-col items-center shrink-0"><div class="w-px h-[7px] bg-pk-border"></div><div class="w-3 h-3 rounded-full border-2 border-pk-gray-300 bg-pk-surface shrink-0"></div><div class="w-px flex-1 bg-pk-border"></div></div><div class="flex-1 pb-8"><span class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary">Jun 17 2026</span><p class="text-body-base font-semibold text-pk-content-primary leading-5 mt-1">Kevin Warsh leads first Federal Reserve meeting, holds rates steady</p><p class="flex items-center gap-1 text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary mt-0.5"><span>No change<!-- --> <!-- -->rises to<!-- --> <!-- -->76<!-- -->%</span><span class="inline-flex items-center gap-0.5 font-semibold text-pk-content-accent-green"><svg width="8" height="8" viewBox="0 0 12 12" fill="none" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><path d="M6.51952 2.5C6.28858 2.1 5.71123 2.1 5.48029 2.5L1.84298 8.8C1.61204 9.2 1.90072 9.7 2.3626 9.7L9.63721 9.7C10.0991 9.7 10.3878 9.2 10.1568 8.8L6.51952 2.5Z" fill="currentColor"></path></svg>1<!-- -->%</span></p><p class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-secondary leading-5 mt-1">At his first FOMC meeting as Chair on June 17, 2026, Kevin Warsh maintained the federal funds rate at 3.50%–3.75%, signaling a cautious, data-dependent approach amid elevated inflation and a stabilizing labor market. His less detailed forward guidance contributed to market uncertainty about future hikes.</p><div class="flex items-center gap-1.5 mt-3"><a href="https://ground.news/article/warsh-to-face-spotlight-as-federal-reserve-likely-to-leave-interest-rates-unchanged" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" class="flex items-center justify-center rounded-md overflow-hidden bg-white" style="width:28px;height:28px;border:1px solid var(--color-pk-border)" data-state="closed" data-slot="tooltip-trigger"><img src="https://www.google.com/s2/favicons?domain=ground.news&amp;sz=64" alt="Ground News" referrerPolicy="no-referrer" width="18" height="18" loading="lazy" style="object-fit:contain"/></a><a href="https://news.constructconnect.com/fed-stays-put-as-2026-opens-keeping-cuts-on-a-short-leash" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" class="flex items-center justify-center rounded-md overflow-hidden bg-white" style="width:28px;height:28px;border:1px solid var(--color-pk-border)" data-state="closed" data-slot="tooltip-trigger"><img src="https://www.google.com/s2/favicons?domain=news.constructconnect.com&amp;sz=64" alt="ConstructConnect News" referrerPolicy="no-referrer" width="18" height="18" loading="lazy" style="object-fit:contain"/></a></div></div></div><div class="flex gap-3 relative !h-0 !overflow-hidden !p-0 !m-0" style="content-visibility:hidden" inert="" aria-hidden="true"><div class="flex flex-col items-center shrink-0"><div class="w-px h-[7px] bg-pk-border"></div><div class="w-3 h-3 rounded-full border-2 border-pk-gray-300 bg-pk-surface shrink-0"></div><div class="w-px flex-1 bg-pk-border"></div></div><div class="flex-1 pb-8"><span class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary">Jun 17 2026</span><p class="text-body-base font-semibold text-pk-content-primary leading-5 mt-1">FOMC unanimously maintains federal funds rate at 3.50%-3.75% amid solid growth</p><p class="flex items-center gap-1 text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary mt-0.5"><span>No change<!-- --> <!-- -->drops to<!-- --> <!-- -->71<!-- -->%</span><span class="inline-flex items-center gap-0.5 font-semibold text-pk-content-accent-red"><svg width="8" height="8" viewBox="0 0 12 12" fill="none" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><path d="M6.51952 9.5C6.28858 9.9 5.71123 9.9 5.48029 9.5L1.84298 3.2C1.61204 2.8 1.90072 2.3 2.3626 2.3L9.63721 2.3C10.0991 2.3 10.3878 2.8 10.1568 3.2L6.51952 9.5Z" fill="currentColor"></path></svg>5<!-- -->%</span></p><p class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-secondary leading-5 mt-1">The Federal Reserve&#x27;s Federal Open Market Committee voted unanimously to keep the target range steady, citing solid economic activity and elevated inflation. The statement noted uncertainties from geopolitical tensions but reaffirmed commitment to price stability, supporting market expectations for no immediate rate change.</p><div class="flex items-center gap-1.5 mt-3"><a href="https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/files/monetary20260617a1.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" class="flex items-center justify-center rounded-md overflow-hidden bg-white" style="width:28px;height:28px;border:1px solid var(--color-pk-border)" data-state="closed" data-slot="tooltip-trigger"><img src="https://www.google.com/s2/favicons?domain=www.federalreserve.gov&amp;sz=64" alt="federalreserve.gov" referrerPolicy="no-referrer" width="18" height="18" loading="lazy" style="object-fit:contain"/></a></div></div></div><div class="flex gap-3 relative !h-0 !overflow-hidden !p-0 !m-0" style="content-visibility:hidden" inert="" aria-hidden="true"><div class="flex flex-col items-center shrink-0"><div class="w-px h-[7px] bg-pk-border"></div><div class="w-3 h-3 rounded-full border-2 border-pk-gray-300 bg-pk-surface shrink-0"></div><div class="w-px flex-1 bg-pk-border"></div></div><div class="flex-1 pb-8"><span class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary">Jun 17 2026</span><p class="text-body-base font-semibold text-pk-content-primary leading-5 mt-1">Federal Reserve removes easing bias, signals possible rate hike later in 2026</p><p class="flex items-center gap-1 text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary mt-0.5"><span>No change<!-- --> <!-- -->drops to<!-- --> <!-- -->69<!-- -->%</span><span class="inline-flex items-center gap-0.5 font-semibold text-pk-content-accent-red"><svg width="8" height="8" viewBox="0 0 12 12" fill="none" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><path d="M6.51952 9.5C6.28858 9.9 5.71123 9.9 5.48029 9.5L1.84298 3.2C1.61204 2.8 1.90072 2.3 2.3626 2.3L9.63721 2.3C10.0991 2.3 10.3878 2.8 10.1568 3.2L6.51952 9.5Z" fill="currentColor"></path></svg>7<!-- -->%</span></p><p class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-secondary leading-5 mt-1">At the June 16-17 FOMC meeting, the Fed removed language indicating a bias toward future rate cuts and signaled that a rate hike is possible later in 2026 due to accelerating inflation and a stable labor market. This hawkish shift caused markets to reassess expectations, reducing the likelihood of cuts and increasing the probability of hikes.</p><div class="flex items-center gap-1.5 mt-3"><a href="https://polymarket.copilot.markets/event/fed-decision-in-september-762" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" class="flex items-center justify-center rounded-md overflow-hidden bg-white" style="width:28px;height:28px;border:1px solid var(--color-pk-border)" data-state="closed" data-slot="tooltip-trigger"><img src="https://www.google.com/s2/favicons?domain=polymarket.copilot.markets&amp;sz=64" alt="Polymarket" referrerPolicy="no-referrer" width="18" height="18" loading="lazy" style="object-fit:contain"/></a></div></div></div><div class="flex gap-3 relative !h-0 !overflow-hidden !p-0 !m-0" style="content-visibility:hidden" inert="" aria-hidden="true"><div class="flex flex-col items-center shrink-0"><div class="w-px h-[7px] bg-pk-border"></div><div class="w-3 h-3 rounded-full border-2 border-pk-gray-300 bg-pk-surface shrink-0"></div><div class="w-px flex-1 bg-pk-border"></div></div><div class="flex-1 pb-8"><span class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary">Jun 17 2026</span><p class="text-body-base font-semibold text-pk-content-primary leading-5 mt-1">Federal Reserve holds interest rates steady at 3.50%-3.75% amid persistent inflation</p><p class="flex items-center gap-1 text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary mt-0.5"><span>25 bps increase<!-- --> <!-- -->surges to<!-- --> <!-- -->39<!-- -->%</span><span class="inline-flex items-center gap-0.5 font-semibold text-pk-content-accent-green"><svg width="8" height="8" viewBox="0 0 12 12" fill="none" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><path d="M6.51952 2.5C6.28858 2.1 5.71123 2.1 5.48029 2.5L1.84298 8.8C1.61204 9.2 1.90072 9.7 2.3626 9.7L9.63721 9.7C10.0991 9.7 10.3878 9.2 10.1568 8.8L6.51952 2.5Z" fill="currentColor"></path></svg>20<!-- -->%</span></p><p class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-secondary leading-5 mt-1">At its June 17 meeting, the Federal Open Market Committee unanimously voted to maintain the federal funds rate at 3.50%-3.75%, citing solid economic growth but elevated inflation driven by supply shocks, including energy prices. The Fed signaled a cautious approach, emphasizing price stability while acknowledging ongoing inflation risks, which influenced market expectations for future rate hikes.</p><div class="flex items-center gap-1.5 mt-3"><a href="https://www.reuters.com/business/fed-officials-mull-raising-rates-curb-growing-inflation-risk-2026-05-29/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" class="flex items-center justify-center rounded-md overflow-hidden bg-white" style="width:28px;height:28px;border:1px solid var(--color-pk-border)" data-state="closed" data-slot="tooltip-trigger"><img src="https://www.google.com/s2/favicons?domain=www.reuters.com&amp;sz=64" alt="Reuters" referrerPolicy="no-referrer" width="18" height="18" loading="lazy" style="object-fit:contain"/></a><a href="https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/files/monetary20260617a1.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" class="flex items-center justify-center rounded-md overflow-hidden bg-white" style="width:28px;height:28px;border:1px solid var(--color-pk-border)" data-state="closed" data-slot="tooltip-trigger"><img src="https://www.google.com/s2/favicons?domain=www.federalreserve.gov&amp;sz=64" alt="Federal Reserve" referrerPolicy="no-referrer" width="18" height="18" loading="lazy" style="object-fit:contain"/></a></div></div></div><div class="flex gap-3 relative !h-0 !overflow-hidden !p-0 !m-0" style="content-visibility:hidden" inert="" aria-hidden="true"><div class="flex flex-col items-center shrink-0"><div class="w-px h-[7px] bg-pk-border"></div><div class="w-3 h-3 rounded-full border-2 border-pk-gray-300 bg-pk-surface shrink-0"></div><div class="w-px flex-1 bg-pk-border"></div></div><div class="flex-1 pb-8"><span class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary">Jun 17 2026</span><p class="text-body-base font-semibold text-pk-content-primary leading-5 mt-1">Federal Reserve holds rates steady at 3.50%-3.75% with hawkish projections</p><p class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-secondary leading-5 mt-1">At the June 17 FOMC meeting, the Fed unanimously kept rates unchanged but signaled a hawkish outlook with projections for higher rates by year-end, reflecting persistent inflation and solid economic growth. This reinforced expectations for possible hikes later in 2026.</p><div class="flex items-center gap-1.5 mt-3"><a href="https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomcminutes20260617.htm" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" class="flex items-center justify-center rounded-md overflow-hidden bg-white" style="width:28px;height:28px;border:1px solid var(--color-pk-border)" data-state="closed" data-slot="tooltip-trigger"><img src="https://www.google.com/s2/favicons?domain=www.federalreserve.gov&amp;sz=64" alt="Federal Reserve" referrerPolicy="no-referrer" width="18" height="18" loading="lazy" style="object-fit:contain"/></a><a href="https://www.tradingkey.com/analysis/economic/central-banks/261973912-fed-federal-fomc-2-economic-projections-decision-rates-tradingkey" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" class="flex items-center justify-center rounded-md overflow-hidden bg-white" style="width:28px;height:28px;border:1px solid var(--color-pk-border)" data-state="closed" data-slot="tooltip-trigger"><img src="https://www.google.com/s2/favicons?domain=www.tradingkey.com&amp;sz=64" alt="TradingKey" referrerPolicy="no-referrer" width="18" height="18" loading="lazy" style="object-fit:contain"/></a></div></div></div><div class="flex gap-3 relative !h-0 !overflow-hidden !p-0 !m-0" style="content-visibility:hidden" inert="" aria-hidden="true"><div class="flex flex-col items-center shrink-0"><div class="w-px h-[7px] bg-pk-border"></div><div class="w-3 h-3 rounded-full border-2 border-pk-gray-300 bg-pk-surface shrink-0"></div><div class="w-px flex-1 bg-pk-border"></div></div><div class="flex-1 pb-8"><span class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary">Jun 17 2026</span><p class="text-body-base font-semibold text-pk-content-primary leading-5 mt-1">Federal Reserve maintains rates at 3.5%-3.75% amid inflation and Middle East uncertainty</p><p class="flex items-center gap-1 text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary mt-0.5"><span>No change<!-- --> <!-- -->jumps to<!-- --> <!-- -->70<!-- -->%</span><span class="inline-flex items-center gap-0.5 font-semibold text-pk-content-accent-green"><svg width="8" height="8" viewBox="0 0 12 12" fill="none" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><path d="M6.51952 2.5C6.28858 2.1 5.71123 2.1 5.48029 2.5L1.84298 8.8C1.61204 9.2 1.90072 9.7 2.3626 9.7L9.63721 9.7C10.0991 9.7 10.3878 9.2 10.1568 8.8L6.51952 2.5Z" fill="currentColor"></path></svg>5<!-- -->%</span></p><p class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-secondary leading-5 mt-1">At the June FOMC meeting, the Fed kept rates steady, emphasizing ongoing elevated inflation partly due to supply shocks from the Middle East conflict. The unanimous vote and statement reinforced a cautious stance, impacting market pricing toward a potential future hike.</p><div class="flex items-center gap-1.5 mt-3"><a href="https://english.kontan.co.id/news/federal-reserve-issues-fomc-statement-june-17-2026-200-pm-est" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" class="flex items-center justify-center rounded-md overflow-hidden bg-white" style="width:28px;height:28px;border:1px solid var(--color-pk-border)" data-state="closed" data-slot="tooltip-trigger"><img src="https://www.google.com/s2/favicons?domain=english.kontan.co.id&amp;sz=64" alt="Federal Reserve Board" referrerPolicy="no-referrer" width="18" height="18" loading="lazy" style="object-fit:contain"/></a><a href="https://investinglive.com/centralbank/the-full-fomc-statement-from-the-june-2026-meeting-20260617/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" class="flex items-center justify-center rounded-md overflow-hidden bg-white" style="width:28px;height:28px;border:1px solid var(--color-pk-border)" data-state="closed" data-slot="tooltip-trigger"><img src="https://www.google.com/s2/favicons?domain=investinglive.com&amp;sz=64" alt="InvestingLive" referrerPolicy="no-referrer" width="18" height="18" loading="lazy" style="object-fit:contain"/></a></div></div></div><div class="flex gap-3 relative !h-0 !overflow-hidden !p-0 !m-0" style="content-visibility:hidden" inert="" aria-hidden="true"><div class="flex flex-col items-center shrink-0"><div class="w-px h-[7px] bg-pk-border"></div><div class="w-3 h-3 rounded-full border-2 border-pk-gray-300 bg-pk-surface shrink-0"></div><div class="w-px flex-1 bg-pk-border"></div></div><div class="flex-1 pb-8"><span class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary">Jun 17 2026</span><p class="text-body-base font-semibold text-pk-content-primary leading-5 mt-1">Federal Open Market Committee unanimously maintains federal funds rate at 3.50%-3.75%</p><p class="flex items-center gap-1 text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary mt-0.5"><span>No change<!-- --> <!-- -->drops to<!-- --> <!-- -->69<!-- -->%</span><span class="inline-flex items-center gap-0.5 font-semibold text-pk-content-accent-red"><svg width="8" height="8" viewBox="0 0 12 12" fill="none" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><path d="M6.51952 9.5C6.28858 9.9 5.71123 9.9 5.48029 9.5L1.84298 3.2C1.61204 2.8 1.90072 2.3 2.3626 2.3L9.63721 2.3C10.0991 2.3 10.3878 2.8 10.1568 3.2L6.51952 9.5Z" fill="currentColor"></path></svg>5<!-- -->%</span></p><p class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-secondary leading-5 mt-1">The FOMC voted 12-0 to keep the target range unchanged, removing language suggesting an easing bias and emphasizing the need to deliver price stability amid elevated inflation and economic uncertainty.</p><div class="flex items-center gap-1.5 mt-3"><a href="https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20260617a.htm" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" class="flex items-center justify-center rounded-md overflow-hidden bg-white" style="width:28px;height:28px;border:1px solid var(--color-pk-border)" data-state="closed" data-slot="tooltip-trigger"><img src="https://www.google.com/s2/favicons?domain=www.federalreserve.gov&amp;sz=64" alt="Federal Reserve" referrerPolicy="no-referrer" width="18" height="18" loading="lazy" style="object-fit:contain"/></a></div></div></div><div class="flex gap-3 relative !h-0 !overflow-hidden !p-0 !m-0" style="content-visibility:hidden" inert="" aria-hidden="true"><div class="flex flex-col items-center shrink-0"><div class="w-px h-[7px] bg-pk-border"></div><div class="w-3 h-3 rounded-full border-2 border-pk-gray-300 bg-pk-surface shrink-0"></div><div class="w-px flex-1 bg-pk-border"></div></div><div class="flex-1 pb-8"><span class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary">Jun 17 2026</span><p class="text-body-base font-semibold text-pk-content-primary leading-5 mt-1">Kevin Warsh holds first Fed meeting, keeps rates steady at 3.5%-3.75%</p><p class="flex items-center gap-1 text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary mt-0.5"><span>25 bps increase<!-- --> <!-- -->jumps to<!-- --> <!-- -->38<!-- -->%</span><span class="inline-flex items-center gap-0.5 font-semibold text-pk-content-accent-green"><svg width="8" height="8" viewBox="0 0 12 12" fill="none" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><path d="M6.51952 2.5C6.28858 2.1 5.71123 2.1 5.48029 2.5L1.84298 8.8C1.61204 9.2 1.90072 9.7 2.3626 9.7L9.63721 9.7C10.0991 9.7 10.3878 9.2 10.1568 8.8L6.51952 2.5Z" fill="currentColor"></path></svg>12<!-- -->%</span></p><p class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-secondary leading-5 mt-1">At his first Federal Reserve meeting as Chair, Kevin Warsh maintained the federal funds rate at 3.5%-3.75%, signaling a cautious approach amid persistent inflation and energy price pressures from the U.S.-Iran conflict. The meeting revealed a divided committee with some policymakers expecting rate hikes later in 2026, influencing market expectations for a possible September increase.</p><div class="flex items-center gap-1.5 mt-3"><a href="https://ground.news/article/warsh-to-face-spotlight-as-federal-reserve-likely-to-leave-interest-rates-unchanged" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" class="flex items-center justify-center rounded-md overflow-hidden bg-white" style="width:28px;height:28px;border:1px solid var(--color-pk-border)" data-state="closed" data-slot="tooltip-trigger"><img src="https://www.google.com/s2/favicons?domain=ground.news&amp;sz=64" alt="Ground News" referrerPolicy="no-referrer" width="18" height="18" loading="lazy" style="object-fit:contain"/></a></div></div></div><div class="flex gap-3 relative !h-0 !overflow-hidden !p-0 !m-0" style="content-visibility:hidden" inert="" aria-hidden="true"><div class="flex flex-col items-center shrink-0"><div class="w-px h-[7px] bg-pk-border"></div><div class="w-3 h-3 rounded-full border-2 border-pk-gray-300 bg-pk-surface shrink-0"></div><div class="w-px flex-1 bg-pk-border"></div></div><div class="flex-1 pb-8"><span class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary">Jun 17 2026</span><p class="text-body-base font-semibold text-pk-content-primary leading-5 mt-1">Federal Reserve holds federal funds rate steady at 3.50%-3.75% amid solid growth and elevated inflation</p><p class="flex items-center gap-1 text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary mt-0.5"><span>No change<!-- --> <!-- -->rises to<!-- --> <!-- -->74<!-- -->%</span><span class="inline-flex items-center gap-0.5 font-semibold text-pk-content-accent-green"><svg width="8" height="8" viewBox="0 0 12 12" fill="none" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><path d="M6.51952 2.5C6.28858 2.1 5.71123 2.1 5.48029 2.5L1.84298 8.8C1.61204 9.2 1.90072 9.7 2.3626 9.7L9.63721 9.7C10.0991 9.7 10.3878 9.2 10.1568 8.8L6.51952 2.5Z" fill="currentColor"></path></svg>1<!-- -->%</span></p><p class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-secondary leading-5 mt-1">At its June 16-17 meeting, the FOMC unanimously decided to maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 3.50% to 3.75%, citing solid economic activity and persistent inflation above the 2% goal. The statement removed easing bias and signaled a more hawkish outlook, leading markets to price in fewer rate cuts and potential hikes later in the year.</p><div class="flex items-center gap-1.5 mt-3"><a href="https://www.reuters.com/business/fed-hold-rates-this-year-cut-calls-fade-war-inflation-persists-economists-say-2026-06-09/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" class="flex items-center justify-center rounded-md overflow-hidden bg-white" style="width:28px;height:28px;border:1px solid var(--color-pk-border)" data-state="closed" data-slot="tooltip-trigger"><img src="https://www.google.com/s2/favicons?domain=www.reuters.com&amp;sz=64" alt="Reuters" referrerPolicy="no-referrer" width="18" height="18" loading="lazy" style="object-fit:contain"/></a><a href="https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomcminutes20260617.htm" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" class="flex items-center justify-center rounded-md overflow-hidden bg-white" style="width:28px;height:28px;border:1px solid var(--color-pk-border)" data-state="closed" data-slot="tooltip-trigger"><img src="https://www.google.com/s2/favicons?domain=www.federalreserve.gov&amp;sz=64" alt="Federal Reserve Board" referrerPolicy="no-referrer" width="18" height="18" loading="lazy" style="object-fit:contain"/></a></div></div></div><div class="flex gap-3 relative !h-0 !overflow-hidden !p-0 !m-0" style="content-visibility:hidden" inert="" aria-hidden="true"><div class="flex flex-col items-center shrink-0"><div class="w-px h-[7px] bg-pk-border"></div><div class="w-3 h-3 rounded-full border-2 border-pk-gray-300 bg-pk-surface shrink-0"></div><div class="w-px flex-1 bg-pk-border"></div></div><div class="flex-1 pb-8"><span class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary">Jun 17 2026</span><p class="text-body-base font-semibold text-pk-content-primary leading-5 mt-1">FOMC Maintains Federal Funds Rate at 3.50%-3.75% in First Meeting Under Chair Warsh</p><p class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-secondary leading-5 mt-1">The Federal Open Market Committee voted unanimously to keep the federal funds rate steady at 3.50%-3.75% during its June meeting, signaling a pause amid elevated inflation and economic growth. This decision reinforced market expectations for no immediate rate cuts and supported the rising probability of a 25 bps increase by September.</p><div class="flex items-center gap-1.5 mt-3"><a href="https://www.live-feeds.com/feed/federal-reserve-issues-fomc-statement" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" class="flex items-center justify-center rounded-md overflow-hidden bg-white" style="width:28px;height:28px;border:1px solid var(--color-pk-border)" data-state="closed" data-slot="tooltip-trigger"><img src="https://www.google.com/s2/favicons?domain=www.live-feeds.com&amp;sz=64" alt="Live Feeds" referrerPolicy="no-referrer" width="18" height="18" loading="lazy" style="object-fit:contain"/></a></div></div></div><div class="flex gap-3 relative !h-0 !overflow-hidden !p-0 !m-0" style="content-visibility:hidden" inert="" aria-hidden="true"><div class="flex flex-col items-center shrink-0"><div class="w-px h-[7px] bg-pk-border"></div><div class="w-3 h-3 rounded-full border-2 border-pk-gray-300 bg-pk-surface shrink-0"></div><div class="w-px flex-1 bg-pk-border"></div></div><div class="flex-1 pb-8"><span class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary">Jun 17 2026</span><p class="text-body-base font-semibold text-pk-content-primary leading-5 mt-1">Federal Reserve Board Votes Unanimously to Maintain Interest Rate Paid on Reserve Balances</p><p class="flex items-center gap-1 text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary mt-0.5"><span>No change<!-- --> <!-- -->surges to<!-- --> <!-- -->81<!-- -->%</span><span class="inline-flex items-center gap-0.5 font-semibold text-pk-content-accent-green"><svg width="8" height="8" viewBox="0 0 12 12" fill="none" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><path d="M6.51952 2.5C6.28858 2.1 5.71123 2.1 5.48029 2.5L1.84298 8.8C1.61204 9.2 1.90072 9.7 2.3626 9.7L9.63721 9.7C10.0991 9.7 10.3878 9.2 10.1568 8.8L6.51952 2.5Z" fill="currentColor"></path></svg>28<!-- -->%</span></p><p class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-secondary leading-5 mt-1">The Federal Reserve Board of Governors unanimously maintained the interest rate paid on reserve balances at 3.65 percent effective June 18, 2026, supporting the FOMC&#x27;s decision to hold the federal funds rate steady. This reinforced the Fed&#x27;s cautious stance amid ongoing inflation and economic conditions.</p><div class="flex items-center gap-1.5 mt-3"><a href="https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/files/monetary20260617a1.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" class="flex items-center justify-center rounded-md overflow-hidden bg-white" style="width:28px;height:28px;border:1px solid var(--color-pk-border)" data-state="closed" data-slot="tooltip-trigger"><img src="https://www.google.com/s2/favicons?domain=www.federalreserve.gov&amp;sz=64" alt="Federal Reserve" referrerPolicy="no-referrer" width="18" height="18" loading="lazy" style="object-fit:contain"/></a></div></div></div><div class="flex gap-3 relative !h-0 !overflow-hidden !p-0 !m-0" style="content-visibility:hidden" inert="" aria-hidden="true"><div class="flex flex-col items-center shrink-0"><div class="w-px h-[7px] bg-pk-border"></div><div class="w-3 h-3 rounded-full border-2 border-pk-gray-300 bg-pk-surface shrink-0"></div><div class="w-px flex-1 bg-pk-border"></div></div><div class="flex-1 pb-8"><span class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary">Jun 17 2026</span><p class="text-body-base font-semibold text-pk-content-primary leading-5 mt-1">New Fed Chair Kevin Warsh signals hawkish shift at June FOMC meeting</p><p class="flex items-center gap-1 text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary mt-0.5"><span>No change<!-- --> <!-- -->rises to<!-- --> <!-- -->74<!-- -->%</span><span class="inline-flex items-center gap-0.5 font-semibold text-pk-content-accent-green"><svg width="8" height="8" viewBox="0 0 12 12" fill="none" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><path d="M6.51952 2.5C6.28858 2.1 5.71123 2.1 5.48029 2.5L1.84298 8.8C1.61204 9.2 1.90072 9.7 2.3626 9.7L9.63721 9.7C10.0991 9.7 10.3878 9.2 10.1568 8.8L6.51952 2.5Z" fill="currentColor"></path></svg>1<!-- -->%</span></p><p class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-secondary leading-5 mt-1">Kevin Warsh&#x27;s first FOMC meeting as Fed Chair marked a shift away from easing bias, with projections indicating fewer rate cuts and the possibility of hikes later in 2026 due to accelerating inflation and firm labor markets.</p><div class="flex items-center gap-1.5 mt-3"><a href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/simonmoore/2026/06/08/fed-may-remove-easing-language-at-june-meeting-setting-up-a-potential-2026-hike/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" class="flex items-center justify-center rounded-md overflow-hidden bg-white" style="width:28px;height:28px;border:1px solid var(--color-pk-border)" data-state="closed" data-slot="tooltip-trigger"><img src="https://www.google.com/s2/favicons?domain=www.forbes.com&amp;sz=64" alt="Forbes" referrerPolicy="no-referrer" width="18" height="18" loading="lazy" style="object-fit:contain"/></a></div></div></div><div class="flex gap-3 relative !h-0 !overflow-hidden !p-0 !m-0" style="content-visibility:hidden" inert="" aria-hidden="true"><div class="flex flex-col items-center shrink-0"><div class="w-px h-[7px] bg-pk-border"></div><div class="w-3 h-3 rounded-full border-2 border-pk-gray-300 bg-pk-surface shrink-0"></div><div class="w-px flex-1 bg-pk-border"></div></div><div class="flex-1 pb-8"><span class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary">Jun 17 2026</span><p class="text-body-base font-semibold text-pk-content-primary leading-5 mt-1">Federal Reserve Holds Interest Rates Steady at 3.50%-3.75% in June 2026</p><p class="flex items-center gap-1 text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary mt-0.5"><span>No change<!-- --> <!-- -->surges to<!-- --> <!-- -->76<!-- -->%</span><span class="inline-flex items-center gap-0.5 font-semibold text-pk-content-accent-green"><svg width="8" height="8" viewBox="0 0 12 12" fill="none" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><path d="M6.51952 2.5C6.28858 2.1 5.71123 2.1 5.48029 2.5L1.84298 8.8C1.61204 9.2 1.90072 9.7 2.3626 9.7L9.63721 9.7C10.0991 9.7 10.3878 9.2 10.1568 8.8L6.51952 2.5Z" fill="currentColor"></path></svg>23<!-- -->%</span></p><p class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-secondary leading-5 mt-1">The Federal Reserve decided to maintain the federal funds rate target range at 3.50%-3.75% during its June 17 meeting, citing solid economic expansion despite persistent inflation. This decision marked the fourth consecutive hold and signaled a higher-for-longer rate outlook, influencing market expectations for future rate hikes.</p><div class="flex items-center gap-1.5 mt-3"><a href="https://www.tradingkey.com/analysis/economic/central-banks/261973912-fed-federal-fomc-2-economic-projections-decision-rates-tradingkey" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" class="flex items-center justify-center rounded-md overflow-hidden bg-white" style="width:28px;height:28px;border:1px solid var(--color-pk-border)" data-state="closed" data-slot="tooltip-trigger"><img src="https://www.google.com/s2/favicons?domain=www.tradingkey.com&amp;sz=64" alt="TradingKey" referrerPolicy="no-referrer" width="18" height="18" loading="lazy" style="object-fit:contain"/></a><a href="https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/files/monetary20260617a1.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" class="flex items-center justify-center rounded-md overflow-hidden bg-white" style="width:28px;height:28px;border:1px solid var(--color-pk-border)" data-state="closed" data-slot="tooltip-trigger"><img src="https://www.google.com/s2/favicons?domain=www.federalreserve.gov&amp;sz=64" alt="Federal Reserve" referrerPolicy="no-referrer" width="18" height="18" loading="lazy" style="object-fit:contain"/></a></div></div></div><div class="flex gap-3 relative !h-0 !overflow-hidden !p-0 !m-0" style="content-visibility:hidden" inert="" aria-hidden="true"><div class="flex flex-col items-center shrink-0"><div class="w-px h-[7px] bg-pk-border"></div><div class="w-3 h-3 rounded-full border-2 border-pk-gray-300 bg-pk-surface shrink-0"></div><div class="w-px flex-1 bg-pk-border"></div></div><div class="flex-1 pb-8"><span class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary">Jun 17 2026</span><p class="text-body-base font-semibold text-pk-content-primary leading-5 mt-1">Fed Interest Rate Decision June 2026: What It Means for You</p><p class="flex items-center gap-1 text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary mt-0.5"><span>No change<!-- --> <!-- -->drops to<!-- --> <!-- -->70<!-- -->%</span><span class="inline-flex items-center gap-0.5 font-semibold text-pk-content-accent-red"><svg width="8" height="8" viewBox="0 0 12 12" fill="none" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><path d="M6.51952 9.5C6.28858 9.9 5.71123 9.9 5.48029 9.5L1.84298 3.2C1.61204 2.8 1.90072 2.3 2.3626 2.3L9.63721 2.3C10.0991 2.3 10.3878 2.8 10.1568 3.2L6.51952 9.5Z" fill="currentColor"></path></svg>5<!-- -->%</span></p><p class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-secondary leading-5 mt-1">The Fed held rates steady amid accelerating inflation driven by energy costs and a resilient labor market. This decision signaled no immediate relief for borrowers, as inflation remained above target and wage growth lagged behind price increases.</p><div class="flex items-center gap-1.5 mt-3"><a href="https://www.deputy.com/blog/fed-interest-rate-decision-june-2026-what-it-means-for-you" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" class="flex items-center justify-center rounded-md overflow-hidden bg-white" style="width:28px;height:28px;border:1px solid var(--color-pk-border)" data-state="closed" data-slot="tooltip-trigger"><img src="https://www.google.com/s2/favicons?domain=www.deputy.com&amp;sz=64" alt="Deputy" referrerPolicy="no-referrer" width="18" height="18" loading="lazy" style="object-fit:contain"/></a></div></div></div><div class="flex gap-3 relative !h-0 !overflow-hidden !p-0 !m-0" style="content-visibility:hidden" inert="" aria-hidden="true"><div class="flex flex-col items-center shrink-0"><div class="w-px h-[7px] bg-pk-border"></div><div class="w-3 h-3 rounded-full border-2 border-pk-gray-300 bg-pk-surface shrink-0"></div><div class="w-px flex-1 bg-pk-border"></div></div><div class="flex-1 pb-8"><span class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary">Jun 17 2026</span><p class="text-body-base font-semibold text-pk-content-primary leading-5 mt-1">Fed Chair Kevin Warsh Signals Hawkish Outlook in First Meeting</p><p class="flex items-center gap-1 text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary mt-0.5"><span>25 bps increase<!-- --> <!-- -->surges to<!-- --> <!-- -->38<!-- -->%</span><span class="inline-flex items-center gap-0.5 font-semibold text-pk-content-accent-green"><svg width="8" height="8" viewBox="0 0 12 12" fill="none" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><path d="M6.51952 2.5C6.28858 2.1 5.71123 2.1 5.48029 2.5L1.84298 8.8C1.61204 9.2 1.90072 9.7 2.3626 9.7L9.63721 9.7C10.0991 9.7 10.3878 9.2 10.1568 8.8L6.51952 2.5Z" fill="currentColor"></path></svg>25<!-- -->%</span></p><p class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-secondary leading-5 mt-1">In his first FOMC meeting as Chair, Kevin Warsh emphasized the Fed&#x27;s commitment to price stability amid elevated inflation, rejecting the idea of rate cuts in 2026 and indicating a possible rate hike later in the year. This hawkish tone contributed to market repricing toward higher rates and increased the probability of a 25 bps increase.</p><div class="flex items-center gap-1.5 mt-3"><a href="https://www.stocktitan.net/articles/fed-rate-decision-june-17-2026" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" class="flex items-center justify-center rounded-md overflow-hidden bg-white" style="width:28px;height:28px;border:1px solid var(--color-pk-border)" data-state="closed" data-slot="tooltip-trigger"><img src="https://www.google.com/s2/favicons?domain=www.stocktitan.net&amp;sz=64" alt="StockTitan" referrerPolicy="no-referrer" width="18" height="18" loading="lazy" style="object-fit:contain"/></a><a href="https://www.welchforbes.com/insights/economic-outlook-july-2026/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" class="flex items-center justify-center rounded-md overflow-hidden bg-white" style="width:28px;height:28px;border:1px solid var(--color-pk-border)" data-state="closed" data-slot="tooltip-trigger"><img src="https://www.google.com/s2/favicons?domain=www.welchforbes.com&amp;sz=64" alt="Welch &amp; Forbes" referrerPolicy="no-referrer" width="18" height="18" loading="lazy" style="object-fit:contain"/></a></div></div></div><div class="flex gap-3 relative !h-0 !overflow-hidden !p-0 !m-0" style="content-visibility:hidden" inert="" aria-hidden="true"><div class="flex flex-col items-center shrink-0"><div class="w-px h-[7px] bg-pk-border"></div><div class="w-3 h-3 rounded-full border-2 border-pk-gray-300 bg-pk-surface shrink-0"></div><div class="w-px flex-1 bg-pk-border"></div></div><div class="flex-1 pb-8"><span class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary">Jun 17 2026</span><p class="text-body-base font-semibold text-pk-content-primary leading-5 mt-1">FOMC holds rates steady at 3.5%-3.75% amid elevated inflation</p><p class="flex items-center gap-1 text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary mt-0.5"><span>No change<!-- --> <!-- -->dips to<!-- --> <!-- -->75<!-- -->%</span><span class="inline-flex items-center gap-0.5 font-semibold text-pk-content-accent-red"><svg width="8" height="8" viewBox="0 0 12 12" fill="none" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><path d="M6.51952 9.5C6.28858 9.9 5.71123 9.9 5.48029 9.5L1.84298 3.2C1.61204 2.8 1.90072 2.3 2.3626 2.3L9.63721 2.3C10.0991 2.3 10.3878 2.8 10.1568 3.2L6.51952 9.5Z" fill="currentColor"></path></svg>2<!-- -->%</span></p><p class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-secondary leading-5 mt-1">At its June 16-17 meeting, the Federal Open Market Committee unanimously voted to maintain the federal funds rate target range at 3.5% to 3.75%, citing solid economic expansion but persistent inflation above the 2% target. This decision reflected a cautious approach despite inflationary pressures, with some members dissenting in favor of a rate hike.</p><div class="flex items-center gap-1.5 mt-3"><a href="https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomcminutes20260617.htm" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" class="flex items-center justify-center rounded-md overflow-hidden bg-white" style="width:28px;height:28px;border:1px solid var(--color-pk-border)" data-state="closed" data-slot="tooltip-trigger"><img src="https://www.google.com/s2/favicons?domain=www.federalreserve.gov&amp;sz=64" alt="federalreserve.gov" referrerPolicy="no-referrer" width="18" height="18" loading="lazy" style="object-fit:contain"/></a></div></div></div><div class="flex gap-3 relative !h-0 !overflow-hidden !p-0 !m-0" style="content-visibility:hidden" inert="" aria-hidden="true"><div class="flex flex-col items-center shrink-0"><div class="w-px h-[7px] bg-pk-border"></div><div class="w-3 h-3 rounded-full border-2 border-pk-gray-300 bg-pk-surface shrink-0"></div><div class="w-px flex-1 bg-pk-border"></div></div><div class="flex-1 pb-8"><span class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary">Jun 17 2026</span><p class="text-body-base font-semibold text-pk-content-primary leading-5 mt-1">Kevin Warsh Leads First FOMC Meeting, Fed Holds Rates at 3.50%–3.75%</p><p class="flex items-center gap-1 text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary mt-0.5"><span>No change<!-- --> <!-- -->dips to<!-- --> <!-- -->74<!-- -->%</span><span class="inline-flex items-center gap-0.5 font-semibold text-pk-content-accent-red"><svg width="8" height="8" viewBox="0 0 12 12" fill="none" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><path d="M6.51952 9.5C6.28858 9.9 5.71123 9.9 5.48029 9.5L1.84298 3.2C1.61204 2.8 1.90072 2.3 2.3626 2.3L9.63721 2.3C10.0991 2.3 10.3878 2.8 10.1568 3.2L6.51952 9.5Z" fill="currentColor"></path></svg>2<!-- -->%</span></p><p class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-secondary leading-5 mt-1">In his first meeting as Fed Chair, Kevin Warsh oversaw the decision to keep interest rates steady at 3.50%–3.75%. The brief statement emphasized elevated inflation and introduced institutional reforms, reinforcing market expectations of a cautious approach to rate changes in 2026.</p><div class="flex items-center gap-1.5 mt-3"><a href="https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/files/monetary20260617a1.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" class="flex items-center justify-center rounded-md overflow-hidden bg-white" style="width:28px;height:28px;border:1px solid var(--color-pk-border)" data-state="closed" data-slot="tooltip-trigger"><img src="https://www.google.com/s2/favicons?domain=www.federalreserve.gov&amp;sz=64" alt="Federal Reserve" referrerPolicy="no-referrer" width="18" height="18" loading="lazy" style="object-fit:contain"/></a></div></div></div><div class="flex gap-3 relative !h-0 !overflow-hidden !p-0 !m-0" style="content-visibility:hidden" inert="" aria-hidden="true"><div class="flex flex-col items-center shrink-0"><div class="w-px h-[7px] bg-pk-border"></div><div class="w-3 h-3 rounded-full border-2 border-pk-gray-300 bg-pk-surface shrink-0"></div><div class="w-px flex-1 bg-pk-border"></div></div><div class="flex-1 pb-8"><span class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary">Jun 17 2026</span><p class="text-body-base font-semibold text-pk-content-primary leading-5 mt-1">Kevin Warsh&#x27;s first FOMC meeting emphasizes price stability, holds rates steady</p><p class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-secondary leading-5 mt-1">At his first FOMC meeting as Fed Chair, Kevin Warsh maintained the federal funds rate at 3.5%-3.75%, signaling a focus on combating elevated inflation while deemphasizing maximum employment. This hawkish tone led markets to price in potential future hikes but no immediate change.</p><div class="flex items-center gap-1.5 mt-3"><a href="https://www.welchforbes.com/insights/economic-outlook-july-2026/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" class="flex items-center justify-center rounded-md overflow-hidden bg-white" style="width:28px;height:28px;border:1px solid var(--color-pk-border)" data-state="closed" data-slot="tooltip-trigger"><img src="https://www.google.com/s2/favicons?domain=www.welchforbes.com&amp;sz=64" alt="Welch &amp; Forbes" referrerPolicy="no-referrer" width="18" height="18" loading="lazy" style="object-fit:contain"/></a></div></div></div><div class="flex gap-3 relative !h-0 !overflow-hidden !p-0 !m-0" style="content-visibility:hidden" inert="" aria-hidden="true"><div class="flex flex-col items-center shrink-0"><div class="w-px h-[7px] bg-pk-border"></div><div class="w-3 h-3 rounded-full border-2 border-pk-gray-300 bg-pk-surface shrink-0"></div><div class="w-px flex-1 bg-pk-border"></div></div><div class="flex-1 pb-8"><span class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary">Jun 16 2026</span><p class="text-body-base font-semibold text-pk-content-primary leading-5 mt-1">Fed signals hawkish outlook, removing forward guidance on rate cuts</p><p class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-secondary leading-5 mt-1">At the June FOMC meeting, the Fed left rates steady but delivered a more hawkish message by removing prior forward guidance and signaling inflation risks remain, causing markets to reassess the likelihood of future hikes versus cuts.</p><div class="flex items-center gap-1.5 mt-3"><a href="https://www.ecmarkets.com/insights/fed-holds-rates-hawkish-hike-expectations/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" class="flex items-center justify-center rounded-md overflow-hidden bg-white" style="width:28px;height:28px;border:1px solid var(--color-pk-border)" data-state="closed" data-slot="tooltip-trigger"><img src="https://www.google.com/s2/favicons?domain=www.ecmarkets.com&amp;sz=64" alt="ECMarkets" referrerPolicy="no-referrer" width="18" height="18" loading="lazy" style="object-fit:contain"/></a></div></div></div><div class="flex gap-3 relative !h-0 !overflow-hidden !p-0 !m-0" style="content-visibility:hidden" inert="" aria-hidden="true"><div class="flex flex-col items-center shrink-0"><div class="w-px h-[7px] bg-pk-border"></div><div class="w-3 h-3 rounded-full border-2 border-pk-gray-300 bg-pk-surface shrink-0"></div><div class="w-px flex-1 bg-pk-border"></div></div><div class="flex-1 pb-8"><span class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary">Jun 16 2026</span><p class="text-body-base font-semibold text-pk-content-primary leading-5 mt-1">Federal Reserve maintains target federal funds rate at 3.50%-3.75% in June meeting</p><p class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-secondary leading-5 mt-1">The FOMC decided to keep rates steady amid persistent inflation and a resilient labor market, reflecting a split among policymakers on whether to cut or hold rates. This reinforced market expectations for no change in the upcoming September meeting.</p><div class="flex items-center gap-1.5 mt-3"><a href="https://finance.yahoo.com/personal-finance/banking/article/fed-rate-predictions-2026-154647304.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" class="flex items-center justify-center rounded-md overflow-hidden bg-white" style="width:28px;height:28px;border:1px solid var(--color-pk-border)" data-state="closed" data-slot="tooltip-trigger"><img src="https://www.google.com/s2/favicons?domain=finance.yahoo.com&amp;sz=64" alt="Yahoo Finance" referrerPolicy="no-referrer" width="18" height="18" loading="lazy" style="object-fit:contain"/></a></div></div></div><div class="flex gap-3 relative !h-0 !overflow-hidden !p-0 !m-0" style="content-visibility:hidden" inert="" aria-hidden="true"><div class="flex flex-col items-center shrink-0"><div class="w-px h-[7px] bg-pk-border"></div><div class="w-3 h-3 rounded-full border-2 border-pk-gray-300 bg-pk-surface shrink-0"></div><div class="w-px flex-1 bg-pk-border"></div></div><div class="flex-1 pb-8"><span class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary">Jun 16 2026</span><p class="text-body-base font-semibold text-pk-content-primary leading-5 mt-1">Federal Reserve signals hawkish outlook, keeping rates steady but hinting at possible hikes</p><p class="flex items-center gap-1 text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary mt-0.5"><span>25 bps increase<!-- --> <!-- -->surges to<!-- --> <!-- -->37<!-- -->%</span><span class="inline-flex items-center gap-0.5 font-semibold text-pk-content-accent-green"><svg width="8" height="8" viewBox="0 0 12 12" fill="none" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><path d="M6.51952 2.5C6.28858 2.1 5.71123 2.1 5.48029 2.5L1.84298 8.8C1.61204 9.2 1.90072 9.7 2.3626 9.7L9.63721 9.7C10.0991 9.7 10.3878 9.2 10.1568 8.8L6.51952 2.5Z" fill="currentColor"></path></svg>17<!-- -->%</span></p><p class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-secondary leading-5 mt-1">At the June meeting, the Fed held rates steady but issued a more hawkish statement and projections, causing markets to reassess expectations and increasing the probability of a 25 bps increase. Treasury yields and the US dollar rose in response.</p><div class="flex items-center gap-1.5 mt-3"><a href="https://www.ecmarkets.com/insights/fed-holds-rates-hawkish-hike-expectations/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" class="flex items-center justify-center rounded-md overflow-hidden bg-white" style="width:28px;height:28px;border:1px solid var(--color-pk-border)" data-state="closed" data-slot="tooltip-trigger"><img src="https://www.google.com/s2/favicons?domain=www.ecmarkets.com&amp;sz=64" alt="ECMarkets" referrerPolicy="no-referrer" width="18" height="18" loading="lazy" style="object-fit:contain"/></a></div></div></div><div class="flex gap-3 relative !h-0 !overflow-hidden !p-0 !m-0" style="content-visibility:hidden" inert="" aria-hidden="true"><div class="flex flex-col items-center shrink-0"><div class="w-px h-[7px] bg-pk-border"></div><div class="w-3 h-3 rounded-full border-2 border-pk-gray-300 bg-pk-surface shrink-0"></div><div class="w-px flex-1 bg-pk-border"></div></div><div class="flex-1 pb-8"><span class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary">Jun 16 2026</span><p class="text-body-base font-semibold text-pk-content-primary leading-5 mt-1">Fed signals cautious outlook with no rate cuts despite inflation pressures</p><p class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-secondary leading-5 mt-1">At the June FOMC meeting, the Fed maintained rates and signaled a more hawkish stance, emphasizing inflation risks and removing forward guidance on cuts. This caused markets to reassess expectations, increasing the probability of no change or a rate hike in September.</p><div class="flex items-center gap-1.5 mt-3"><a href="https://www.ecmarkets.com/insights/fed-holds-rates-hawkish-hike-expectations/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" class="flex items-center justify-center rounded-md overflow-hidden bg-white" style="width:28px;height:28px;border:1px solid var(--color-pk-border)" data-state="closed" data-slot="tooltip-trigger"><img src="https://www.google.com/s2/favicons?domain=www.ecmarkets.com&amp;sz=64" alt="ECMarkets" referrerPolicy="no-referrer" width="18" height="18" loading="lazy" style="object-fit:contain"/></a></div></div></div><div class="flex gap-3 relative !h-0 !overflow-hidden !p-0 !m-0" style="content-visibility:hidden" inert="" aria-hidden="true"><div class="flex flex-col items-center shrink-0"><div class="w-px h-[7px] bg-pk-border"></div><div class="w-3 h-3 rounded-full border-2 border-pk-gray-300 bg-pk-surface shrink-0"></div><div class="w-px flex-1 bg-pk-border"></div></div><div class="flex-1 pb-8"><span class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary">Jun 16 2026</span><p class="text-body-base font-semibold text-pk-content-primary leading-5 mt-1">FOMC holds rates steady, removes easing bias amid inflation concerns</p><p class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-secondary leading-5 mt-1">During the June 16-17 meeting, the Fed kept rates unchanged at 3.50%-3.75% and removed language suggesting an easing bias, signaling a more cautious approach due to persistent inflation above target despite solid economic growth. This hawkish tone influenced market expectations towards a possible rate hike later in the year.</p><div class="flex items-center gap-1.5 mt-3"><a href="https://www.actionforex.com/central-banks/federal-reserve/646610-fed-minutes-of-the-federal-open-market-committee-39/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" class="flex items-center justify-center rounded-md overflow-hidden bg-white" style="width:28px;height:28px;border:1px solid var(--color-pk-border)" data-state="closed" data-slot="tooltip-trigger"><img src="https://www.google.com/s2/favicons?domain=www.actionforex.com&amp;sz=64" alt="ActionForex" referrerPolicy="no-referrer" width="18" height="18" loading="lazy" style="object-fit:contain"/></a></div></div></div><div class="flex gap-3 relative !h-0 !overflow-hidden !p-0 !m-0" style="content-visibility:hidden" inert="" aria-hidden="true"><div class="flex flex-col items-center shrink-0"><div class="w-px h-[7px] bg-pk-border"></div><div class="w-3 h-3 rounded-full border-2 border-pk-gray-300 bg-pk-surface shrink-0"></div><div class="w-px flex-1 bg-pk-border"></div></div><div class="flex-1 pb-8"><span class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary">Jun 16 2026</span><p class="text-body-base font-semibold text-pk-content-primary leading-5 mt-1">Federal Reserve holds rates steady but signals hawkish outlook amid inflation concerns</p><p class="flex items-center gap-1 text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary mt-0.5"><span>25 bps increase<!-- --> <!-- -->surges to<!-- --> <!-- -->39<!-- -->%</span><span class="inline-flex items-center gap-0.5 font-semibold text-pk-content-accent-green"><svg width="8" height="8" viewBox="0 0 12 12" fill="none" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><path d="M6.51952 2.5C6.28858 2.1 5.71123 2.1 5.48029 2.5L1.84298 8.8C1.61204 9.2 1.90072 9.7 2.3626 9.7L9.63721 9.7C10.0991 9.7 10.3878 9.2 10.1568 8.8L6.51952 2.5Z" fill="currentColor"></path></svg>23<!-- -->%</span></p><p class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-secondary leading-5 mt-1">In June, the Fed kept rates unchanged at 3.5%-3.75% but delivered a hawkish message, emphasizing inflation risks and removing forward guidance. This caused markets to reassess expectations, increasing the probability of a 25 bps rate hike in September as inflation remained above target despite a weakening labor market.</p><div class="flex items-center gap-1.5 mt-3"><a href="https://www.ecmarkets.com/insights/fed-holds-rates-hawkish-hike-expectations/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" class="flex items-center justify-center rounded-md overflow-hidden bg-white" style="width:28px;height:28px;border:1px solid var(--color-pk-border)" data-state="closed" data-slot="tooltip-trigger"><img src="https://www.google.com/s2/favicons?domain=www.ecmarkets.com&amp;sz=64" alt="ECMarkets" referrerPolicy="no-referrer" width="18" height="18" loading="lazy" style="object-fit:contain"/></a></div></div></div><div class="flex gap-3 relative !h-0 !overflow-hidden !p-0 !m-0" style="content-visibility:hidden" inert="" aria-hidden="true"><div class="flex flex-col items-center shrink-0"><div class="w-px h-[7px] bg-pk-border"></div><div class="w-3 h-3 rounded-full border-2 border-pk-gray-300 bg-pk-surface shrink-0"></div><div class="w-px flex-1 bg-pk-border"></div></div><div class="flex-1 pb-8"><span class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary">Jun 10 2026</span><p class="text-body-base font-semibold text-pk-content-primary leading-5 mt-1">U.S. inflation rises to 4.2% in May, highest in three years</p><p class="flex items-center gap-1 text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary mt-0.5"><span>25 bps increase<!-- --> <!-- -->rises to<!-- --> <!-- -->16<!-- -->%</span><span class="inline-flex items-center gap-0.5 font-semibold text-pk-content-accent-green"><svg width="8" height="8" viewBox="0 0 12 12" fill="none" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><path d="M6.51952 2.5C6.28858 2.1 5.71123 2.1 5.48029 2.5L1.84298 8.8C1.61204 9.2 1.90072 9.7 2.3626 9.7L9.63721 9.7C10.0991 9.7 10.3878 9.2 10.1568 8.8L6.51952 2.5Z" fill="currentColor"></path></svg>4<!-- -->%</span></p><p class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-secondary leading-5 mt-1">Consumer prices surged 4.2% year-over-year in May, driven largely by energy price increases due to the Iran conflict, complicating the Fed&#x27;s inflation outlook and increasing expectations for rate hikes. This inflation spike reinforced the Fed&#x27;s cautious stance and hawkish projections in June.</p><div class="flex items-center gap-1.5 mt-3"><a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-06-03/fed-official-says-rate-hikes-may-be-needed-to-cool-inflation" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" class="flex items-center justify-center rounded-md overflow-hidden bg-white" style="width:28px;height:28px;border:1px solid var(--color-pk-border)" data-state="closed" data-slot="tooltip-trigger"><img src="https://www.google.com/s2/favicons?domain=www.bloomberg.com&amp;sz=64" alt="Bloomberg" referrerPolicy="no-referrer" width="18" height="18" loading="lazy" style="object-fit:contain"/></a><a href="https://eciks.org/7992-59529-economic-calendar-may-inflation-4-2-percent" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" class="flex items-center justify-center rounded-md overflow-hidden bg-white" style="width:28px;height:28px;border:1px solid var(--color-pk-border)" data-state="closed" data-slot="tooltip-trigger"><img src="https://www.google.com/s2/favicons?domain=eciks.org&amp;sz=64" alt="CNBC" referrerPolicy="no-referrer" width="18" height="18" loading="lazy" style="object-fit:contain"/></a></div></div></div><div class="flex gap-3 relative !h-0 !overflow-hidden !p-0 !m-0" style="content-visibility:hidden" inert="" aria-hidden="true"><div class="flex flex-col items-center shrink-0"><div class="w-px h-[7px] bg-pk-border"></div><div class="w-3 h-3 rounded-full border-2 border-pk-gray-300 bg-pk-surface shrink-0"></div><div class="w-px flex-1 bg-pk-border"></div></div><div class="flex-1 pb-8"><span class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary">Jun 10 2026</span><p class="text-body-base font-semibold text-pk-content-primary leading-5 mt-1">US Consumer Price Index rises 4.2% in May, highest in three years</p><p class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-secondary leading-5 mt-1">The May 2026 CPI report showed a 4.2% year-over-year increase, driven primarily by a 40% spike in gasoline prices, signaling persistent inflationary pressures. This data reinforced market expectations that the Federal Reserve would maintain or potentially raise interest rates to combat inflation.</p><div class="flex items-center gap-1.5 mt-3"><a href="https://www.wichitaliberty.org/economics/may-2026-cpi-inflation-report-4-percent/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" class="flex items-center justify-center rounded-md overflow-hidden bg-white" style="width:28px;height:28px;border:1px solid var(--color-pk-border)" data-state="closed" data-slot="tooltip-trigger"><img src="https://www.google.com/s2/favicons?domain=www.wichitaliberty.org&amp;sz=64" alt="WichitaLiberty" referrerPolicy="no-referrer" width="18" height="18" loading="lazy" style="object-fit:contain"/></a></div></div></div><div class="flex gap-3 relative !h-0 !overflow-hidden !p-0 !m-0" style="content-visibility:hidden" inert="" aria-hidden="true"><div class="flex flex-col items-center shrink-0"><div class="w-px h-[7px] bg-pk-border"></div><div class="w-3 h-3 rounded-full border-2 border-pk-gray-300 bg-pk-surface shrink-0"></div><div class="w-px flex-1 bg-pk-border"></div></div><div class="flex-1 pb-8"><span class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary">Jun 10 2026</span><p class="text-body-base font-semibold text-pk-content-primary leading-5 mt-1">May 2026 CPI report shows inflation at 4.2%, highest in three years</p><p class="flex items-center gap-1 text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary mt-0.5"><span>25 bps increase<!-- --> <!-- -->rises to<!-- --> <!-- -->16<!-- -->%</span><span class="inline-flex items-center gap-0.5 font-semibold text-pk-content-accent-green"><svg width="8" height="8" viewBox="0 0 12 12" fill="none" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><path d="M6.51952 2.5C6.28858 2.1 5.71123 2.1 5.48029 2.5L1.84298 8.8C1.61204 9.2 1.90072 9.7 2.3626 9.7L9.63721 9.7C10.0991 9.7 10.3878 9.2 10.1568 8.8L6.51952 2.5Z" fill="currentColor"></path></svg>4<!-- -->%</span></p><p class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-secondary leading-5 mt-1">The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics released the May 2026 Consumer Price Index report showing a 4.2% year-over-year inflation rate, driven largely by a 40% spike in gasoline prices due to Middle East conflict. This report heightened concerns about persistent inflation, influencing the Fed&#x27;s hawkish tone at the upcoming June meeting.</p><div class="flex items-center gap-1.5 mt-3"><a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2026/06/10/cpi-inflation-report-may-2026.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" class="flex items-center justify-center rounded-md overflow-hidden bg-white" style="width:28px;height:28px;border:1px solid var(--color-pk-border)" data-state="closed" data-slot="tooltip-trigger"><img src="https://www.google.com/s2/favicons?domain=www.cnbc.com&amp;sz=64" alt="CNBC" referrerPolicy="no-referrer" width="18" height="18" loading="lazy" style="object-fit:contain"/></a></div></div></div><div class="flex gap-3 relative !h-0 !overflow-hidden !p-0 !m-0" style="content-visibility:hidden" inert="" aria-hidden="true"><div class="flex flex-col items-center shrink-0"><div class="w-px h-[7px] bg-pk-border"></div><div class="w-3 h-3 rounded-full border-2 border-pk-gray-300 bg-pk-surface shrink-0"></div><div class="w-px flex-1 bg-pk-border"></div></div><div class="flex-1 pb-8"><span class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary">Jun 10 2026</span><p class="text-body-base font-semibold text-pk-content-primary leading-5 mt-1">US CPI inflation rises to 4.2%, highest in three years</p><p class="flex items-center gap-1 text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary mt-0.5"><span>25 bps increase<!-- --> <!-- -->jumps to<!-- --> <!-- -->23<!-- -->%</span><span class="inline-flex items-center gap-0.5 font-semibold text-pk-content-accent-green"><svg width="8" height="8" viewBox="0 0 12 12" fill="none" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><path d="M6.51952 2.5C6.28858 2.1 5.71123 2.1 5.48029 2.5L1.84298 8.8C1.61204 9.2 1.90072 9.7 2.3626 9.7L9.63721 9.7C10.0991 9.7 10.3878 9.2 10.1568 8.8L6.51952 2.5Z" fill="currentColor"></path></svg>7<!-- -->%</span></p><p class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-secondary leading-5 mt-1">The Consumer Price Index report released on June 10 showed inflation surged to 4.2% year-over-year in May 2026, driven largely by energy prices, intensifying pressure on the Federal Reserve to consider tightening monetary policy.</p><div class="flex items-center gap-1.5 mt-3"><a href="https://www.wichitaliberty.org/economics/may-2026-cpi-inflation-report-4-percent/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" class="flex items-center justify-center rounded-md overflow-hidden bg-white" style="width:28px;height:28px;border:1px solid var(--color-pk-border)" data-state="closed" data-slot="tooltip-trigger"><img src="https://www.google.com/s2/favicons?domain=www.wichitaliberty.org&amp;sz=64" alt="Wichita Liberty" referrerPolicy="no-referrer" width="18" height="18" loading="lazy" style="object-fit:contain"/></a></div></div></div><div class="flex gap-3 relative !h-0 !overflow-hidden !p-0 !m-0" style="content-visibility:hidden" inert="" aria-hidden="true"><div class="flex flex-col items-center shrink-0"><div class="w-px h-[7px] bg-pk-border"></div><div class="w-3 h-3 rounded-full border-2 border-pk-gray-300 bg-pk-surface shrink-0"></div><div class="w-px flex-1 bg-pk-border"></div></div><div class="flex-1 pb-8"><span class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary">Jun 10 2026</span><p class="text-body-base font-semibold text-pk-content-primary leading-5 mt-1">May Consumer Price Index shows highest inflation in three years, influencing Fed outlook</p><p class="flex items-center gap-1 text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary mt-0.5"><span>25 bps increase<!-- --> <!-- -->plunges to<!-- --> <!-- -->10<!-- -->%</span><span class="inline-flex items-center gap-0.5 font-semibold text-pk-content-accent-red"><svg width="8" height="8" viewBox="0 0 12 12" fill="none" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><path d="M6.51952 9.5C6.28858 9.9 5.71123 9.9 5.48029 9.5L1.84298 3.2C1.61204 2.8 1.90072 2.3 2.3626 2.3L9.63721 2.3C10.0991 2.3 10.3878 2.8 10.1568 3.2L6.51952 9.5Z" fill="currentColor"></path></svg>25<!-- -->%</span></p><p class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-secondary leading-5 mt-1">The May CPI rose 4.2% year-over-year, the highest in three years, driven by energy price increases linked to the Iran War. This inflation data supported the Fed&#x27;s cautious stance and hawkish signals for potential rate hikes later in 2026.</p><div class="flex items-center gap-1.5 mt-3"><a href="https://www.welchforbes.com/insights/economic-outlook-july-2026/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" class="flex items-center justify-center rounded-md overflow-hidden bg-white" style="width:28px;height:28px;border:1px solid var(--color-pk-border)" data-state="closed" data-slot="tooltip-trigger"><img src="https://www.google.com/s2/favicons?domain=www.welchforbes.com&amp;sz=64" alt="Welch &amp; Forbes" referrerPolicy="no-referrer" width="18" height="18" loading="lazy" style="object-fit:contain"/></a></div></div></div><div class="flex gap-3 relative !h-0 !overflow-hidden !p-0 !m-0" style="content-visibility:hidden" inert="" aria-hidden="true"><div class="flex flex-col items-center shrink-0"><div class="w-px h-[7px] bg-pk-border"></div><div class="w-3 h-3 rounded-full border-2 border-pk-gray-300 bg-pk-surface shrink-0"></div><div class="w-px flex-1 bg-pk-border"></div></div><div class="flex-1 pb-8"><span class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary">Jun 10 2026</span><p class="text-body-base font-semibold text-pk-content-primary leading-5 mt-1">U.S. Consumer Price Index for May 2026 shows inflation at 4.2%, highest in 3 years</p><p class="flex items-center gap-1 text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary mt-0.5"><span>25 bps increase<!-- --> <!-- -->surges to<!-- --> <!-- -->39<!-- -->%</span><span class="inline-flex items-center gap-0.5 font-semibold text-pk-content-accent-green"><svg width="8" height="8" viewBox="0 0 12 12" fill="none" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><path d="M6.51952 2.5C6.28858 2.1 5.71123 2.1 5.48029 2.5L1.84298 8.8C1.61204 9.2 1.90072 9.7 2.3626 9.7L9.63721 9.7C10.0991 9.7 10.3878 9.2 10.1568 8.8L6.51952 2.5Z" fill="currentColor"></path></svg>23<!-- -->%</span></p><p class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-secondary leading-5 mt-1">The May 2026 CPI report revealed a 4.2% year-over-year inflation rate, driven largely by energy price increases amid Middle East tensions, signaling persistent inflationary pressures that challenged expectations of rate cuts and supported a hawkish Fed outlook.</p><div class="flex items-center gap-1.5 mt-3"><a href="https://www.wichitaliberty.org/economics/may-2026-cpi-inflation-report-4-percent/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" class="flex items-center justify-center rounded-md overflow-hidden bg-white" style="width:28px;height:28px;border:1px solid var(--color-pk-border)" data-state="closed" data-slot="tooltip-trigger"><img src="https://www.google.com/s2/favicons?domain=www.wichitaliberty.org&amp;sz=64" alt="WichitaLiberty" referrerPolicy="no-referrer" width="18" height="18" loading="lazy" style="object-fit:contain"/></a></div></div></div><div class="flex gap-3 relative !h-0 !overflow-hidden !p-0 !m-0" style="content-visibility:hidden" inert="" aria-hidden="true"><div class="flex flex-col items-center shrink-0"><div class="w-px h-[7px] bg-pk-border"></div><div class="w-3 h-3 rounded-full border-2 border-pk-gray-300 bg-pk-surface shrink-0"></div><div class="w-px flex-1 bg-pk-border"></div></div><div class="flex-1 pb-8"><span class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary">Jun 9 2026</span><p class="text-body-base font-semibold text-pk-content-primary leading-5 mt-1">Economists Poll Shows Majority Expect Fed to Hold Rates Through 2026</p><p class="flex items-center gap-1 text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary mt-0.5"><span>No change<!-- --> <!-- -->drops to<!-- --> <!-- -->68<!-- -->%</span><span class="inline-flex items-center gap-0.5 font-semibold text-pk-content-accent-red"><svg width="8" height="8" viewBox="0 0 12 12" fill="none" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><path d="M6.51952 9.5C6.28858 9.9 5.71123 9.9 5.48029 9.5L1.84298 3.2C1.61204 2.8 1.90072 2.3 2.3626 2.3L9.63721 2.3C10.0991 2.3 10.3878 2.8 10.1568 3.2L6.51952 9.5Z" fill="currentColor"></path></svg>9<!-- -->%</span></p><p class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-secondary leading-5 mt-1">A Reuters poll published on June 9, 2026, revealed that a strong majority of economists expect the Federal Reserve to keep interest rates steady for the remainder of 2026 due to persistent war-driven inflation. This consensus marked a shift from earlier expectations of rate cuts, reinforcing market pricing for no change or possible hikes later in the year.</p><div class="flex items-center gap-1.5 mt-3"><a href="https://www.reuters.com/business/fed-hold-rates-this-year-cut-calls-fade-war-inflation-persists-economists-say-2026-06-09/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" class="flex items-center justify-center rounded-md overflow-hidden bg-white" style="width:28px;height:28px;border:1px solid var(--color-pk-border)" data-state="closed" data-slot="tooltip-trigger"><img src="https://www.google.com/s2/favicons?domain=www.reuters.com&amp;sz=64" alt="Reuters" referrerPolicy="no-referrer" width="18" height="18" loading="lazy" style="object-fit:contain"/></a></div></div></div><div class="flex gap-3 relative !h-0 !overflow-hidden !p-0 !m-0" style="content-visibility:hidden" inert="" aria-hidden="true"><div class="flex flex-col items-center shrink-0"><div class="w-px h-[7px] bg-pk-border"></div><div class="w-3 h-3 rounded-full border-2 border-pk-gray-300 bg-pk-surface shrink-0"></div><div class="w-px flex-1 bg-pk-border"></div></div><div class="flex-1 pb-8"><span class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary">Jun 9 2026</span><p class="text-body-base font-semibold text-pk-content-primary leading-5 mt-1">Economists largely expect Fed to hold rates for rest of 2026 amid persistent inflation</p><p class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-secondary leading-5 mt-1">A Reuters poll showed a strong majority of economists forecast the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates steady through the rest of 2026, reflecting persistent inflation driven by war-related factors. This consensus marked a shift from earlier expectations of rate cuts, reinforcing market pricing of no change in the near term.</p><div class="flex items-center gap-1.5 mt-3"><a href="https://www.reuters.com/business/fed-hold-rates-this-year-cut-calls-fade-war-inflation-persists-economists-say-2026-06-09/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" class="flex items-center justify-center rounded-md overflow-hidden bg-white" style="width:28px;height:28px;border:1px solid var(--color-pk-border)" data-state="closed" data-slot="tooltip-trigger"><img src="https://www.google.com/s2/favicons?domain=www.reuters.com&amp;sz=64" alt="Reuters" referrerPolicy="no-referrer" width="18" height="18" loading="lazy" style="object-fit:contain"/></a></div></div></div><div class="flex gap-3 relative !h-0 !overflow-hidden !p-0 !m-0" style="content-visibility:hidden" inert="" aria-hidden="true"><div class="flex flex-col items-center shrink-0"><div class="w-px h-[7px] bg-pk-border"></div><div class="w-3 h-3 rounded-full border-2 border-pk-gray-300 bg-pk-surface shrink-0"></div><div class="w-px flex-1 bg-pk-border"></div></div><div class="flex-1 pb-8"><span class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary">Jun 9 2026</span><p class="text-body-base font-semibold text-pk-content-primary leading-5 mt-1">Reuters poll shows majority expect Fed to hold rates for rest of 2026 amid persistent inflation</p><p class="flex items-center gap-1 text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary mt-0.5"><span>No change<!-- --> <!-- -->surges to<!-- --> <!-- -->39<!-- -->%</span><span class="inline-flex items-center gap-0.5 font-semibold text-pk-content-accent-green"><svg width="8" height="8" viewBox="0 0 12 12" fill="none" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><path d="M6.51952 2.5C6.28858 2.1 5.71123 2.1 5.48029 2.5L1.84298 8.8C1.61204 9.2 1.90072 9.7 2.3626 9.7L9.63721 9.7C10.0991 9.7 10.3878 9.2 10.1568 8.8L6.51952 2.5Z" fill="currentColor"></path></svg>19<!-- -->%</span></p><p class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-secondary leading-5 mt-1">A Reuters poll of economists revealed that nearly 70% expect the Federal Reserve to keep interest rates steady through 2026, reflecting concerns over persistent inflation driven by war-related factors. Despite this, futures markets price in at least one rate hike by year-end, indicating some uncertainty.</p><div class="flex items-center gap-1.5 mt-3"><a href="https://www.reuters.com/business/fed-hold-rates-this-year-cut-calls-fade-war-inflation-persists-economists-say-2026-06-09/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" class="flex items-center justify-center rounded-md overflow-hidden bg-white" style="width:28px;height:28px;border:1px solid var(--color-pk-border)" data-state="closed" data-slot="tooltip-trigger"><img src="https://www.google.com/s2/favicons?domain=www.reuters.com&amp;sz=64" alt="Reuters" referrerPolicy="no-referrer" width="18" height="18" loading="lazy" style="object-fit:contain"/></a></div></div></div><div class="flex gap-3 relative !h-0 !overflow-hidden !p-0 !m-0" style="content-visibility:hidden" inert="" aria-hidden="true"><div class="flex flex-col items-center shrink-0"><div class="w-px h-[7px] bg-pk-border"></div><div class="w-3 h-3 rounded-full border-2 border-pk-gray-300 bg-pk-surface shrink-0"></div><div class="w-px flex-1 bg-pk-border"></div></div><div class="flex-1 pb-8"><span class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary">Jun 9 2026</span><p class="text-body-base font-semibold text-pk-content-primary leading-5 mt-1">Majority of economists expect Fed to hold rates for rest of 2026 amid persistent inflation</p><p class="flex items-center gap-1 text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary mt-0.5"><span>No change<!-- --> <!-- -->jumps to<!-- --> <!-- -->57<!-- -->%</span><span class="inline-flex items-center gap-0.5 font-semibold text-pk-content-accent-green"><svg width="8" height="8" viewBox="0 0 12 12" fill="none" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><path d="M6.51952 2.5C6.28858 2.1 5.71123 2.1 5.48029 2.5L1.84298 8.8C1.61204 9.2 1.90072 9.7 2.3626 9.7L9.63721 9.7C10.0991 9.7 10.3878 9.2 10.1568 8.8L6.51952 2.5Z" fill="currentColor"></path></svg>7<!-- -->%</span></p><p class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-secondary leading-5 mt-1">A Reuters poll showed that nearly 70% of economists forecast the Federal Reserve would keep its key interest rate unchanged through the rest of 2026, reflecting concerns over persistent inflation driven by geopolitical tensions and energy prices. This consensus marked a shift away from earlier expectations of rate cuts, reinforcing market pricing for a stable or higher rate environment.</p><div class="flex items-center gap-1.5 mt-3"><a href="https://www.reuters.com/business/fed-hold-rates-this-year-cut-calls-fade-war-inflation-persists-economists-say-2026-06-09/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" class="flex items-center justify-center rounded-md overflow-hidden bg-white" style="width:28px;height:28px;border:1px solid var(--color-pk-border)" data-state="closed" data-slot="tooltip-trigger"><img src="https://www.google.com/s2/favicons?domain=www.reuters.com&amp;sz=64" alt="Reuters" referrerPolicy="no-referrer" width="18" height="18" loading="lazy" style="object-fit:contain"/></a></div></div></div><div class="flex gap-3 relative !h-0 !overflow-hidden !p-0 !m-0" style="content-visibility:hidden" inert="" aria-hidden="true"><div class="flex flex-col items-center shrink-0"><div class="w-px h-[7px] bg-pk-border"></div><div class="w-3 h-3 rounded-full border-2 border-pk-gray-300 bg-pk-surface shrink-0"></div><div class="w-px flex-1 bg-pk-border"></div></div><div class="flex-1 pb-8"><span class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary">Jun 9 2026</span><p class="text-body-base font-semibold text-pk-content-primary leading-5 mt-1">Economists predict Fed will hold rates for rest of 2026 amid persistent inflation</p><p class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-secondary leading-5 mt-1">A Reuters poll showed a strong majority of economists expect the Federal Reserve to keep interest rates steady through 2026 due to ongoing inflation pressures driven by war-related supply shocks and resilient economic indicators, reducing expectations for rate cuts this year.</p><div class="flex items-center gap-1.5 mt-3"><a href="https://www.reuters.com/business/fed-hold-rates-this-year-cut-calls-fade-war-inflation-persists-economists-say-2026-06-09/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" class="flex items-center justify-center rounded-md overflow-hidden bg-white" style="width:28px;height:28px;border:1px solid var(--color-pk-border)" data-state="closed" data-slot="tooltip-trigger"><img src="https://www.google.com/s2/favicons?domain=www.reuters.com&amp;sz=64" alt="Reuters" referrerPolicy="no-referrer" width="18" height="18" loading="lazy" style="object-fit:contain"/></a></div></div></div><div class="flex gap-3 relative !h-0 !overflow-hidden !p-0 !m-0" style="content-visibility:hidden" inert="" aria-hidden="true"><div class="flex flex-col items-center shrink-0"><div class="w-px h-[7px] bg-pk-border"></div><div class="w-3 h-3 rounded-full border-2 border-pk-gray-300 bg-pk-surface shrink-0"></div><div class="w-px flex-1 bg-pk-border"></div></div><div class="flex-1 pb-8"><span class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary">Jun 5 2026</span><p class="text-body-base font-semibold text-pk-content-primary leading-5 mt-1">May 2026 jobs report shows strong employment growth with 172,000 jobs added</p><p class="flex items-center gap-1 text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary mt-0.5"><span>25 bps increase<!-- --> <!-- -->rises to<!-- --> <!-- -->16<!-- -->%</span><span class="inline-flex items-center gap-0.5 font-semibold text-pk-content-accent-green"><svg width="8" height="8" viewBox="0 0 12 12" fill="none" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><path d="M6.51952 2.5C6.28858 2.1 5.71123 2.1 5.48029 2.5L1.84298 8.8C1.61204 9.2 1.90072 9.7 2.3626 9.7L9.63721 9.7C10.0991 9.7 10.3878 9.2 10.1568 8.8L6.51952 2.5Z" fill="currentColor"></path></svg>4<!-- -->%</span></p><p class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-secondary leading-5 mt-1">The May 2026 jobs report revealed a stronger-than-expected labor market with 172,000 jobs added, reinforcing the Fed&#x27;s hawkish stance due to resilient employment and supporting expectations of future rate hikes.</p><div class="flex items-center gap-1.5 mt-3"><a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2026/06/05/jobs-report-may-2026.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" class="flex items-center justify-center rounded-md overflow-hidden bg-white" style="width:28px;height:28px;border:1px solid var(--color-pk-border)" data-state="closed" data-slot="tooltip-trigger"><img src="https://www.google.com/s2/favicons?domain=www.cnbc.com&amp;sz=64" alt="CNBC" referrerPolicy="no-referrer" width="18" height="18" loading="lazy" style="object-fit:contain"/></a></div></div></div><div class="flex gap-3 relative !h-0 !overflow-hidden !p-0 !m-0" style="content-visibility:hidden" inert="" aria-hidden="true"><div class="flex flex-col items-center shrink-0"><div class="w-px h-[7px] bg-pk-border"></div><div class="w-3 h-3 rounded-full border-2 border-pk-gray-300 bg-pk-surface shrink-0"></div><div class="w-px flex-1 bg-pk-border"></div></div><div class="flex-1 pb-8"><span class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary">Jun 5 2026</span><p class="text-body-base font-semibold text-pk-content-primary leading-5 mt-1">May 2026 Nonfarm Payrolls report shows strong job growth of 172,000</p><p class="flex items-center gap-1 text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary mt-0.5"><span>25 bps increase<!-- --> <!-- -->jumps to<!-- --> <!-- -->21<!-- -->%</span><span class="inline-flex items-center gap-0.5 font-semibold text-pk-content-accent-green"><svg width="8" height="8" viewBox="0 0 12 12" fill="none" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><path d="M6.51952 2.5C6.28858 2.1 5.71123 2.1 5.48029 2.5L1.84298 8.8C1.61204 9.2 1.90072 9.7 2.3626 9.7L9.63721 9.7C10.0991 9.7 10.3878 9.2 10.1568 8.8L6.51952 2.5Z" fill="currentColor"></path></svg>5<!-- -->%</span></p><p class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-secondary leading-5 mt-1">The May 2026 jobs report exceeded expectations with 172,000 new jobs added, reinforcing the Fed&#x27;s hawkish stance by demonstrating labor market resilience despite inflationary pressures, increasing the likelihood of rate hikes later in the year.</p><div class="flex items-center gap-1.5 mt-3"><a href="https://www.brokerxplorer.com/news/us-dollar-surges-on-strong-nonfarm-payrolls-report-7791" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" class="flex items-center justify-center rounded-md overflow-hidden bg-white" style="width:28px;height:28px;border:1px solid var(--color-pk-border)" data-state="closed" data-slot="tooltip-trigger"><img src="https://www.google.com/s2/favicons?domain=www.brokerxplorer.com&amp;sz=64" alt="BrokerXplorer" referrerPolicy="no-referrer" width="18" height="18" loading="lazy" style="object-fit:contain"/></a></div></div></div><div class="flex gap-3 relative !h-0 !overflow-hidden !p-0 !m-0" style="content-visibility:hidden" inert="" aria-hidden="true"><div class="flex flex-col items-center shrink-0"><div class="w-px h-[7px] bg-pk-border"></div><div class="w-3 h-3 rounded-full border-2 border-pk-gray-300 bg-pk-surface shrink-0"></div><div class="w-px flex-1 bg-pk-border"></div></div><div class="flex-1 pb-8"><span class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary">Jun 4 2026</span><p class="text-body-base font-semibold text-pk-content-primary leading-5 mt-1">Vice Chair Michelle Bowman testifies on supervision and regulation</p><p class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-secondary leading-5 mt-1">Bowman&#x27;s testimony highlighted regulatory perspectives amid economic uncertainties, indirectly supporting the Fed&#x27;s cautious approach to interest rates and influencing market sentiment toward steady policy.</p><div class="flex items-center gap-1.5 mt-3"><a href="https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/testimony/bowman20260604a.htm" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" class="flex items-center justify-center rounded-md overflow-hidden bg-white" style="width:28px;height:28px;border:1px solid var(--color-pk-border)" data-state="closed" data-slot="tooltip-trigger"><img src="https://www.google.com/s2/favicons?domain=www.federalreserve.gov&amp;sz=64" alt="Federal Reserve Board" referrerPolicy="no-referrer" width="18" height="18" loading="lazy" style="object-fit:contain"/></a></div></div></div><div class="flex gap-3 relative !h-0 !overflow-hidden !p-0 !m-0" style="content-visibility:hidden" inert="" aria-hidden="true"><div class="flex flex-col items-center shrink-0"><div class="w-px h-[7px] bg-pk-border"></div><div class="w-3 h-3 rounded-full border-2 border-pk-gray-300 bg-pk-surface shrink-0"></div><div class="w-px flex-1 bg-pk-border"></div></div><div class="flex-1 pb-8"><span class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary">May 31 2026</span><p class="text-body-base font-semibold text-pk-content-primary leading-5 mt-1">Jerome Powell defends Fed independence in JFK award speech</p><p class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-secondary leading-5 mt-1">Former Fed Chair Jerome Powell publicly defended the Federal Reserve&#x27;s independence against political pressure, emphasizing the importance of non-political monetary policy. This reinforced market confidence in the Fed&#x27;s commitment to its dual mandate, supporting expectations of steady rates.</p><div class="flex items-center gap-1.5 mt-3"><a href="https://www.pbs.org/newshour/politics/jerome-powell-uses-award-speech-to-warn-against-political-pressure-on-fed-courts-and-schools" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" class="flex items-center justify-center rounded-md overflow-hidden bg-white" style="width:28px;height:28px;border:1px solid var(--color-pk-border)" data-state="closed" data-slot="tooltip-trigger"><img src="https://www.google.com/s2/favicons?domain=www.pbs.org&amp;sz=64" alt="PBS News" referrerPolicy="no-referrer" width="18" height="18" loading="lazy" style="object-fit:contain"/></a></div></div></div><div class="flex gap-3 relative !h-0 !overflow-hidden !p-0 !m-0" style="content-visibility:hidden" inert="" aria-hidden="true"><div class="flex flex-col items-center shrink-0"><div class="w-px h-[7px] bg-pk-border"></div><div class="w-3 h-3 rounded-full border-2 border-pk-gray-300 bg-pk-surface shrink-0"></div><div class="w-px flex-1 bg-pk-border"></div></div><div class="flex-1 pb-8"><span class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary">May 29 2026</span><p class="text-body-base font-semibold text-pk-content-primary leading-5 mt-1">Fed officials signal readiness to raise rates if inflation persists amid Middle East conflict</p><p class="flex items-center gap-1 text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary mt-0.5"><span>No change<!-- --> <!-- -->surges to<!-- --> <!-- -->81<!-- -->%</span><span class="inline-flex items-center gap-0.5 font-semibold text-pk-content-accent-green"><svg width="8" height="8" viewBox="0 0 12 12" fill="none" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><path d="M6.51952 2.5C6.28858 2.1 5.71123 2.1 5.48029 2.5L1.84298 8.8C1.61204 9.2 1.90072 9.7 2.3626 9.7L9.63721 9.7C10.0991 9.7 10.3878 9.2 10.1568 8.8L6.51952 2.5Z" fill="currentColor"></path></svg>28<!-- -->%</span></p><p class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-secondary leading-5 mt-1">On May 29, Federal Reserve officials indicated that while there was no immediate urgency to adjust rates, they remained prepared to raise interest rates if inflation continued to rise due to geopolitical tensions, particularly the conflict in the Middle East. This hawkish tone contributed to market uncertainty about future rate hikes.</p><div class="flex items-center gap-1.5 mt-3"><a href="https://www.reuters.com/business/fed-officials-mull-raising-rates-curb-growing-inflation-risk-2026-05-29/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" class="flex items-center justify-center rounded-md overflow-hidden bg-white" style="width:28px;height:28px;border:1px solid var(--color-pk-border)" data-state="closed" data-slot="tooltip-trigger"><img src="https://www.google.com/s2/favicons?domain=www.reuters.com&amp;sz=64" alt="Reuters" referrerPolicy="no-referrer" width="18" height="18" loading="lazy" style="object-fit:contain"/></a></div></div></div><div class="flex gap-3 relative !h-0 !overflow-hidden !p-0 !m-0" style="content-visibility:hidden" inert="" aria-hidden="true"><div class="flex flex-col items-center shrink-0"><div class="w-px h-[7px] bg-pk-border"></div><div class="w-3 h-3 rounded-full border-2 border-pk-gray-300 bg-pk-surface shrink-0"></div><div class="w-px flex-1 bg-pk-border"></div></div><div class="flex-1 pb-8"><span class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary">May 29 2026</span><p class="text-body-base font-semibold text-pk-content-primary leading-5 mt-1">Fed officials signal readiness to raise rates if inflation persists amid Middle East conflict</p><p class="flex items-center gap-1 text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary mt-0.5"><span>25 bps increase<!-- --> <!-- -->jumps to<!-- --> <!-- -->38<!-- -->%</span><span class="inline-flex items-center gap-0.5 font-semibold text-pk-content-accent-green"><svg width="8" height="8" viewBox="0 0 12 12" fill="none" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><path d="M6.51952 2.5C6.28858 2.1 5.71123 2.1 5.48029 2.5L1.84298 8.8C1.61204 9.2 1.90072 9.7 2.3626 9.7L9.63721 9.7C10.0991 9.7 10.3878 9.2 10.1568 8.8L6.51952 2.5Z" fill="currentColor"></path></svg>12<!-- -->%</span></p><p class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-secondary leading-5 mt-1">On May 29, 2026, Federal Reserve officials indicated they might raise interest rates if inflation remains elevated due to supply shocks from the Middle East conflict, increasing market anticipation of future tightening.</p><div class="flex items-center gap-1.5 mt-3"><a href="https://www.reuters.com/business/fed-officials-mull-raising-rates-curb-growing-inflation-risk-2026-05-29/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" class="flex items-center justify-center rounded-md overflow-hidden bg-white" style="width:28px;height:28px;border:1px solid var(--color-pk-border)" data-state="closed" data-slot="tooltip-trigger"><img src="https://www.google.com/s2/favicons?domain=www.reuters.com&amp;sz=64" alt="Reuters" referrerPolicy="no-referrer" width="18" height="18" loading="lazy" style="object-fit:contain"/></a></div></div></div><div class="flex gap-3 relative !h-0 !overflow-hidden !p-0 !m-0" style="content-visibility:hidden" inert="" aria-hidden="true"><div class="flex flex-col items-center shrink-0"><div class="w-px h-[7px] bg-pk-border"></div><div class="w-3 h-3 rounded-full border-2 border-pk-gray-300 bg-pk-surface shrink-0"></div><div class="w-px flex-1 bg-pk-border"></div></div><div class="flex-1 pb-8"><span class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary">May 29 2026</span><p class="text-body-base font-semibold text-pk-content-primary leading-5 mt-1">Fed officials signal possible future rate hikes amid inflation risks</p><p class="flex items-center gap-1 text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary mt-0.5"><span>No change<!-- --> <!-- -->surges to<!-- --> <!-- -->81<!-- -->%</span><span class="inline-flex items-center gap-0.5 font-semibold text-pk-content-accent-green"><svg width="8" height="8" viewBox="0 0 12 12" fill="none" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><path d="M6.51952 2.5C6.28858 2.1 5.71123 2.1 5.48029 2.5L1.84298 8.8C1.61204 9.2 1.90072 9.7 2.3626 9.7L9.63721 9.7C10.0991 9.7 10.3878 9.2 10.1568 8.8L6.51952 2.5Z" fill="currentColor"></path></svg>28<!-- -->%</span></p><p class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-secondary leading-5 mt-1">On May 29, 2026, Federal Reserve officials indicated readiness to raise interest rates if inflation remains elevated, particularly due to war-driven energy price pressures. This hawkish tone increased market expectations for future tightening despite no immediate rate change, supporting the &#x27;No change&#x27; and &#x27;25 bps increase&#x27; outcomes.</p><div class="flex items-center gap-1.5 mt-3"><a href="https://www.reuters.com/business/fed-officials-mull-raising-rates-curb-growing-inflation-risk-2026-05-29/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" class="flex items-center justify-center rounded-md overflow-hidden bg-white" style="width:28px;height:28px;border:1px solid var(--color-pk-border)" data-state="closed" data-slot="tooltip-trigger"><img src="https://www.google.com/s2/favicons?domain=www.reuters.com&amp;sz=64" alt="Reuters" referrerPolicy="no-referrer" width="18" height="18" loading="lazy" style="object-fit:contain"/></a></div></div></div><div class="flex gap-3 relative !h-0 !overflow-hidden !p-0 !m-0" style="content-visibility:hidden" inert="" aria-hidden="true"><div class="flex flex-col items-center shrink-0"><div class="w-px h-[7px] bg-pk-border"></div><div class="w-3 h-3 rounded-full border-2 border-pk-gray-300 bg-pk-surface shrink-0"></div><div class="w-px flex-1 bg-pk-border"></div></div><div class="flex-1 pb-8"><span class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary">May 29 2026</span><p class="text-body-base font-semibold text-pk-content-primary leading-5 mt-1">Fed officials signal possible rate hike if inflation persists amid Middle East conflict</p><p class="flex items-center gap-1 text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary mt-0.5"><span>No change<!-- --> <!-- -->drops to<!-- --> <!-- -->44<!-- -->%</span><span class="inline-flex items-center gap-0.5 font-semibold text-pk-content-accent-red"><svg width="8" height="8" viewBox="0 0 12 12" fill="none" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><path d="M6.51952 9.5C6.28858 9.9 5.71123 9.9 5.48029 9.5L1.84298 3.2C1.61204 2.8 1.90072 2.3 2.3626 2.3L9.63721 2.3C10.0991 2.3 10.3878 2.8 10.1568 3.2L6.51952 9.5Z" fill="currentColor"></path></svg>12<!-- -->%</span></p><p class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-secondary leading-5 mt-1">Federal Reserve officials indicated readiness to raise interest rates if inflation remains elevated due to the ongoing Middle East conflict, highlighting inflation risks but no immediate urgency to adjust rates. This contributed to market uncertainty about future hikes versus holds.</p><div class="flex items-center gap-1.5 mt-3"><a href="https://www.reuters.com/business/fed-officials-mull-raising-rates-curb-growing-inflation-risk-2026-05-29/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" class="flex items-center justify-center rounded-md overflow-hidden bg-white" style="width:28px;height:28px;border:1px solid var(--color-pk-border)" data-state="closed" data-slot="tooltip-trigger"><img src="https://www.google.com/s2/favicons?domain=www.reuters.com&amp;sz=64" alt="Reuters" referrerPolicy="no-referrer" width="18" height="18" loading="lazy" style="object-fit:contain"/></a></div></div></div><div class="flex gap-3 relative !h-0 !overflow-hidden !p-0 !m-0" style="content-visibility:hidden" inert="" aria-hidden="true"><div class="flex flex-col items-center shrink-0"><div class="w-px h-[7px] bg-pk-border"></div><div class="w-3 h-3 rounded-full border-2 border-pk-gray-300 bg-pk-surface shrink-0"></div><div class="w-px flex-1 bg-pk-border"></div></div><div class="flex-1 pb-8"><span class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary">May 29 2026</span><p class="text-body-base font-semibold text-pk-content-primary leading-5 mt-1">Federal Reserve officials signal possible future rate hikes amid inflation risks</p><p class="flex items-center gap-1 text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary mt-0.5"><span>25 bps increase<!-- --> <!-- -->drops to<!-- --> <!-- -->12<!-- -->%</span><span class="inline-flex items-center gap-0.5 font-semibold text-pk-content-accent-red"><svg width="8" height="8" viewBox="0 0 12 12" fill="none" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><path d="M6.51952 9.5C6.28858 9.9 5.71123 9.9 5.48029 9.5L1.84298 3.2C1.61204 2.8 1.90072 2.3 2.3626 2.3L9.63721 2.3C10.0991 2.3 10.3878 2.8 10.1568 3.2L6.51952 9.5Z" fill="currentColor"></path></svg>14<!-- -->%</span></p><p class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-secondary leading-5 mt-1">On May 29, Federal Reserve officials indicated readiness to raise interest rates if inflation pressures persist, especially due to geopolitical risks such as the Middle East conflict. This hawkish tone contributed to market expectations shifting away from cuts toward potential hikes later in 2026.</p><div class="flex items-center gap-1.5 mt-3"><a href="https://www.reuters.com/business/fed-officials-mull-raising-rates-curb-growing-inflation-risk-2026-05-29/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" class="flex items-center justify-center rounded-md overflow-hidden bg-white" style="width:28px;height:28px;border:1px solid var(--color-pk-border)" data-state="closed" data-slot="tooltip-trigger"><img src="https://www.google.com/s2/favicons?domain=www.reuters.com&amp;sz=64" alt="Reuters" referrerPolicy="no-referrer" width="18" height="18" loading="lazy" style="object-fit:contain"/></a></div></div></div><div class="flex gap-3 relative !h-0 !overflow-hidden !p-0 !m-0" style="content-visibility:hidden" inert="" aria-hidden="true"><div class="flex flex-col items-center shrink-0"><div class="w-px h-[7px] bg-pk-border"></div><div class="w-3 h-3 rounded-full border-2 border-pk-gray-300 bg-pk-surface shrink-0"></div><div class="w-px flex-1 bg-pk-border"></div></div><div class="flex-1 pb-8"><span class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary">May 29 2026</span><p class="text-body-base font-semibold text-pk-content-primary leading-5 mt-1">Fed officials signal possible future rate hikes amid inflation concerns</p><p class="flex items-center gap-1 text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary mt-0.5"><span>25 bps increase<!-- --> <!-- -->jumps to<!-- --> <!-- -->38<!-- -->%</span><span class="inline-flex items-center gap-0.5 font-semibold text-pk-content-accent-green"><svg width="8" height="8" viewBox="0 0 12 12" fill="none" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><path d="M6.51952 2.5C6.28858 2.1 5.71123 2.1 5.48029 2.5L1.84298 8.8C1.61204 9.2 1.90072 9.7 2.3626 9.7L9.63721 9.7C10.0991 9.7 10.3878 9.2 10.1568 8.8L6.51952 2.5Z" fill="currentColor"></path></svg>12<!-- -->%</span></p><p class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-secondary leading-5 mt-1">Federal Reserve officials indicated readiness to raise interest rates if inflation persists, reflecting concerns over the impact of Middle East conflict on energy prices and inflation. This hawkish tone increased market expectations for rate hikes later in 2026.</p><div class="flex items-center gap-1.5 mt-3"><a href="https://www.reuters.com/business/fed-officials-mull-raising-rates-curb-growing-inflation-risk-2026-05-29/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" class="flex items-center justify-center rounded-md overflow-hidden bg-white" style="width:28px;height:28px;border:1px solid var(--color-pk-border)" data-state="closed" data-slot="tooltip-trigger"><img src="https://www.google.com/s2/favicons?domain=www.reuters.com&amp;sz=64" alt="Reuters" referrerPolicy="no-referrer" width="18" height="18" loading="lazy" style="object-fit:contain"/></a></div></div></div><div class="flex gap-3 relative !h-0 !overflow-hidden !p-0 !m-0" style="content-visibility:hidden" inert="" aria-hidden="true"><div class="flex flex-col items-center shrink-0"><div class="w-px h-[7px] bg-pk-border"></div><div class="w-3 h-3 rounded-full border-2 border-pk-gray-300 bg-pk-surface shrink-0"></div><div class="w-px flex-1 bg-pk-border"></div></div><div class="flex-1 pb-8"><span class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary">May 29 2026</span><p class="text-body-base font-semibold text-pk-content-primary leading-5 mt-1">Fed officials signal possible rate hikes amid inflation risks from Middle East conflict</p><p class="flex items-center gap-1 text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary mt-0.5"><span>25 bps increase<!-- --> <!-- -->surges to<!-- --> <!-- -->39<!-- -->%</span><span class="inline-flex items-center gap-0.5 font-semibold text-pk-content-accent-green"><svg width="8" height="8" viewBox="0 0 12 12" fill="none" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><path d="M6.51952 2.5C6.28858 2.1 5.71123 2.1 5.48029 2.5L1.84298 8.8C1.61204 9.2 1.90072 9.7 2.3626 9.7L9.63721 9.7C10.0991 9.7 10.3878 9.2 10.1568 8.8L6.51952 2.5Z" fill="currentColor"></path></svg>23<!-- -->%</span></p><p class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-secondary leading-5 mt-1">Federal Reserve officials indicated readiness to raise interest rates if inflation risks persist due to the Middle East conflict. While some officials saw no urgency to adjust rates immediately, hawkish dissenters highlighted inflation concerns, increasing market expectations for a rate hike later in 2026.</p><div class="flex items-center gap-1.5 mt-3"><a href="https://www.reuters.com/business/fed-officials-mull-raising-rates-curb-growing-inflation-risk-2026-05-29/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" class="flex items-center justify-center rounded-md overflow-hidden bg-white" style="width:28px;height:28px;border:1px solid var(--color-pk-border)" data-state="closed" data-slot="tooltip-trigger"><img src="https://www.google.com/s2/favicons?domain=www.reuters.com&amp;sz=64" alt="Reuters" referrerPolicy="no-referrer" width="18" height="18" loading="lazy" style="object-fit:contain"/></a></div></div></div><div class="flex gap-3 relative !h-0 !overflow-hidden !p-0 !m-0" style="content-visibility:hidden" inert="" aria-hidden="true"><div class="flex flex-col items-center shrink-0"><div class="w-px h-[7px] bg-pk-border"></div><div class="w-3 h-3 rounded-full border-2 border-pk-gray-300 bg-pk-surface shrink-0"></div><div class="w-px flex-1 bg-pk-border"></div></div><div class="flex-1 pb-8"><span class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary">May 27 2026</span><p class="text-body-base font-semibold text-pk-content-primary leading-5 mt-1">Fed Governor Cook Highlights AI and Economic Outlook at Stanford</p><p class="flex items-center gap-1 text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary mt-0.5"><span>No change<!-- --> <!-- -->surges to<!-- --> <!-- -->74<!-- -->%</span><span class="inline-flex items-center gap-0.5 font-semibold text-pk-content-accent-green"><svg width="8" height="8" viewBox="0 0 12 12" fill="none" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><path d="M6.51952 2.5C6.28858 2.1 5.71123 2.1 5.48029 2.5L1.84298 8.8C1.61204 9.2 1.90072 9.7 2.3626 9.7L9.63721 9.7C10.0991 9.7 10.3878 9.2 10.1568 8.8L6.51952 2.5Z" fill="currentColor"></path></svg>21<!-- -->%</span></p><p class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-secondary leading-5 mt-1">Governor Lisa D. Cook&#x27;s speech emphasized resilient economic output and inflation expectations, reinforcing the Fed&#x27;s cautious stance on rate changes. This helped maintain market confidence in a steady policy, supporting the &#x27;No change&#x27; outcome.</p><div class="flex items-center gap-1.5 mt-3"><a href="https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/cook20260715a.htm" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" class="flex items-center justify-center rounded-md overflow-hidden bg-white" style="width:28px;height:28px;border:1px solid var(--color-pk-border)" data-state="closed" data-slot="tooltip-trigger"><img src="https://www.google.com/s2/favicons?domain=www.federalreserve.gov&amp;sz=64" alt="Federal Reserve Board" referrerPolicy="no-referrer" width="18" height="18" loading="lazy" style="object-fit:contain"/></a></div></div></div><div class="flex gap-3 relative !h-0 !overflow-hidden !p-0 !m-0" style="content-visibility:hidden" inert="" aria-hidden="true"><div class="flex flex-col items-center shrink-0"><div class="w-px h-[7px] bg-pk-border"></div><div class="w-3 h-3 rounded-full border-2 border-pk-gray-300 bg-pk-surface shrink-0"></div><div class="w-px flex-1 bg-pk-border"></div></div><div class="flex-1 pb-8"><span class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary">May 22 2026</span><p class="text-body-base font-semibold text-pk-content-primary leading-5 mt-1">Speech by Governor Waller highlights inflation concerns and market expectations</p><p class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-secondary leading-5 mt-1">Governor Waller expressed concerns about rising inflation expectations, signaling vigilance on inflation risks which contributed to market anticipation of a possible rate increase.</p><div class="flex items-center gap-1.5 mt-3"><a href="https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/waller20260522a.htm" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" class="flex items-center justify-center rounded-md overflow-hidden bg-white" style="width:28px;height:28px;border:1px solid var(--color-pk-border)" data-state="closed" data-slot="tooltip-trigger"><img src="https://www.google.com/s2/favicons?domain=www.federalreserve.gov&amp;sz=64" alt="Federal Reserve Board" referrerPolicy="no-referrer" width="18" height="18" loading="lazy" style="object-fit:contain"/></a></div></div></div><div class="flex gap-3 relative !h-0 !overflow-hidden !p-0 !m-0" style="content-visibility:hidden" inert="" aria-hidden="true"><div class="flex flex-col items-center shrink-0"><div class="w-px h-[7px] bg-pk-border"></div><div class="w-3 h-3 rounded-full border-2 border-pk-gray-300 bg-pk-surface shrink-0"></div><div class="w-px flex-1 bg-pk-border"></div></div><div class="flex-1 pb-8"><span class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary">May 22 2026</span><p class="text-body-base font-semibold text-pk-content-primary leading-5 mt-1">Kevin Warsh Sworn in as Federal Reserve Chair, Signals Cautious Monetary Policy</p><p class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-secondary leading-5 mt-1">Kevin Warsh took office as the new Federal Reserve Chair in May 2026, marking a leadership transition. His approach emphasized data-driven decisions without forward guidance, contributing to market uncertainty but reinforcing expectations of steady rates in the near term.</p><div class="flex items-center gap-1.5 mt-3"><a href="https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/other20260522a.htm" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" class="flex items-center justify-center rounded-md overflow-hidden bg-white" style="width:28px;height:28px;border:1px solid var(--color-pk-border)" data-state="closed" data-slot="tooltip-trigger"><img src="https://www.google.com/s2/favicons?domain=www.federalreserve.gov&amp;sz=64" alt="Federal Reserve Board" referrerPolicy="no-referrer" width="18" height="18" loading="lazy" style="object-fit:contain"/></a></div></div></div><div class="flex gap-3 relative !h-0 !overflow-hidden !p-0 !m-0" style="content-visibility:hidden" inert="" aria-hidden="true"><div class="flex flex-col items-center shrink-0"><div class="w-px h-[7px] bg-pk-border"></div><div class="w-3 h-3 rounded-full border-2 border-pk-gray-300 bg-pk-surface shrink-0"></div><div class="w-px flex-1 bg-pk-border"></div></div><div class="flex-1 pb-8"><span class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary">May 22 2026</span><p class="text-body-base font-semibold text-pk-content-primary leading-5 mt-1">Kevin Warsh appointed new Federal Reserve Chair, signals data-driven policy</p><p class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-secondary leading-5 mt-1">Kevin Warsh took over as Fed Chair and emphasized reacting to economic data rather than providing forward guidance, increasing uncertainty about future rate moves. This contributed to market indecision but generally supported the &#x27;No change&#x27; and &#x27;25 bps increase&#x27; outcomes as most probable.</p><div class="flex items-center gap-1.5 mt-3"><a href="https://www.aol.de/articles/federal-raise-lower-interest-rates-102000196.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" class="flex items-center justify-center rounded-md overflow-hidden bg-white" style="width:28px;height:28px;border:1px solid var(--color-pk-border)" data-state="closed" data-slot="tooltip-trigger"><img src="https://www.google.com/s2/favicons?domain=www.aol.de&amp;sz=64" alt="AOL" referrerPolicy="no-referrer" width="18" height="18" loading="lazy" style="object-fit:contain"/></a></div></div></div><div class="flex gap-3 relative !h-0 !overflow-hidden !p-0 !m-0" style="content-visibility:hidden" inert="" aria-hidden="true"><div class="flex flex-col items-center shrink-0"><div class="w-px h-[7px] bg-pk-border"></div><div class="w-3 h-3 rounded-full border-2 border-pk-gray-300 bg-pk-surface shrink-0"></div><div class="w-px flex-1 bg-pk-border"></div></div><div class="flex-1 pb-8"><span class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary">May 22 2026</span><p class="text-body-base font-semibold text-pk-content-primary leading-5 mt-1">Kevin Warsh sworn in as Federal Reserve Chair, signaling potential policy shift</p><p class="flex items-center gap-1 text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary mt-0.5"><span>25 bps increase<!-- --> <!-- -->drops to<!-- --> <!-- -->16<!-- -->%</span><span class="inline-flex items-center gap-0.5 font-semibold text-pk-content-accent-red"><svg width="8" height="8" viewBox="0 0 12 12" fill="none" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><path d="M6.51952 9.5C6.28858 9.9 5.71123 9.9 5.48029 9.5L1.84298 3.2C1.61204 2.8 1.90072 2.3 2.3626 2.3L9.63721 2.3C10.0991 2.3 10.3878 2.8 10.1568 3.2L6.51952 9.5Z" fill="currentColor"></path></svg>10<!-- -->%</span></p><p class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-secondary leading-5 mt-1">Kevin Warsh took office as Fed Chair on May 22, 2026, bringing a hawkish reputation and skepticism toward unconventional monetary policy, which influenced market expectations toward a less accommodative stance and potential rate hikes.</p><div class="flex items-center gap-1.5 mt-3"><a href="https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/other20260522a.htm" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" class="flex items-center justify-center rounded-md overflow-hidden bg-white" style="width:28px;height:28px;border:1px solid var(--color-pk-border)" data-state="closed" data-slot="tooltip-trigger"><img src="https://www.google.com/s2/favicons?domain=www.federalreserve.gov&amp;sz=64" alt="Federal Reserve Board" referrerPolicy="no-referrer" width="18" height="18" loading="lazy" style="object-fit:contain"/></a></div></div></div><div class="flex gap-3 relative !h-0 !overflow-hidden !p-0 !m-0" style="content-visibility:hidden" inert="" aria-hidden="true"><div class="flex flex-col items-center shrink-0"><div class="w-px h-[7px] bg-pk-border"></div><div class="w-3 h-3 rounded-full border-2 border-pk-gray-300 bg-pk-surface shrink-0"></div><div class="w-px flex-1 bg-pk-border"></div></div><div class="flex-1 pb-8"><span class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary">May 22 2026</span><p class="text-body-base font-semibold text-pk-content-primary leading-5 mt-1">Kevin Warsh confirmed as new Federal Reserve Chairman</p><p class="flex items-center gap-1 text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary mt-0.5"><span>25 bps increase<!-- --> <!-- -->drops to<!-- --> <!-- -->17<!-- -->%</span><span class="inline-flex items-center gap-0.5 font-semibold text-pk-content-accent-red"><svg width="8" height="8" viewBox="0 0 12 12" fill="none" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><path d="M6.51952 9.5C6.28858 9.9 5.71123 9.9 5.48029 9.5L1.84298 3.2C1.61204 2.8 1.90072 2.3 2.3626 2.3L9.63721 2.3C10.0991 2.3 10.3878 2.8 10.1568 3.2L6.51952 9.5Z" fill="currentColor"></path></svg>9<!-- -->%</span></p><p class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-secondary leading-5 mt-1">The Senate confirmed Kevin Warsh as the new Fed Chair on May 13, and his leadership was expected to mark a shift in monetary policy. This appointment influenced market expectations, as Warsh was seen as more hawkish compared to his predecessor, contributing to early price movements favoring a rate increase.</p><div class="flex items-center gap-1.5 mt-3"><a href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/simonmoore/2026/06/08/fed-may-remove-easing-language-at-june-meeting-setting-up-a-potential-2026-hike/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" class="flex items-center justify-center rounded-md overflow-hidden bg-white" style="width:28px;height:28px;border:1px solid var(--color-pk-border)" data-state="closed" data-slot="tooltip-trigger"><img src="https://www.google.com/s2/favicons?domain=www.forbes.com&amp;sz=64" alt="Forbes" referrerPolicy="no-referrer" width="18" height="18" loading="lazy" style="object-fit:contain"/></a></div></div></div><div class="flex gap-3 relative !h-0 !overflow-hidden !p-0 !m-0" style="content-visibility:hidden" inert="" aria-hidden="true"><div class="flex flex-col items-center shrink-0"><div class="w-px h-[7px] bg-pk-border"></div><div class="w-3 h-3 rounded-full border-2 border-pk-gray-300 bg-pk-surface shrink-0"></div><div class="w-px flex-1 bg-pk-border"></div></div><div class="flex-1 pb-8"><span class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary">May 22 2026</span><p class="text-body-base font-semibold text-pk-content-primary leading-5 mt-1">Kevin Warsh succeeds Jerome Powell as Federal Reserve Chairman</p><p class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-secondary leading-5 mt-1">Kevin Warsh took over as Fed Chair, emphasizing data-driven decisions without forward guidance, which increased uncertainty about future rate moves. This leadership change contributed to market volatility and influenced expectations around the September meeting.</p><div class="flex items-center gap-1.5 mt-3"><a href="https://www.aol.de/articles/federal-raise-lower-interest-rates-102000196.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" class="flex items-center justify-center rounded-md overflow-hidden bg-white" style="width:28px;height:28px;border:1px solid var(--color-pk-border)" data-state="closed" data-slot="tooltip-trigger"><img src="https://www.google.com/s2/favicons?domain=www.aol.de&amp;sz=64" alt="AOL" referrerPolicy="no-referrer" width="18" height="18" loading="lazy" style="object-fit:contain"/></a></div></div></div><div class="flex gap-3 relative !h-0 !overflow-hidden !p-0 !m-0" style="content-visibility:hidden" inert="" aria-hidden="true"><div class="flex flex-col items-center shrink-0"><div class="w-px h-[7px] bg-pk-border"></div><div class="w-3 h-3 rounded-full border-2 border-pk-gray-300 bg-pk-surface shrink-0"></div><div class="w-px flex-1 bg-pk-border"></div></div><div class="flex-1 pb-8"><span class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary">May 22 2026</span><p class="text-body-base font-semibold text-pk-content-primary leading-5 mt-1">New Fed Chair Kevin Warsh signals data-driven approach, no immediate rate cuts</p><p class="flex items-center gap-1 text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary mt-0.5"><span>25 bps increase<!-- --> <!-- -->drops to<!-- --> <!-- -->17<!-- -->%</span><span class="inline-flex items-center gap-0.5 font-semibold text-pk-content-accent-red"><svg width="8" height="8" viewBox="0 0 12 12" fill="none" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><path d="M6.51952 9.5C6.28858 9.9 5.71123 9.9 5.48029 9.5L1.84298 3.2C1.61204 2.8 1.90072 2.3 2.3626 2.3L9.63721 2.3C10.0991 2.3 10.3878 2.8 10.1568 3.2L6.51952 9.5Z" fill="currentColor"></path></svg>9<!-- -->%</span></p><p class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-secondary leading-5 mt-1">Following his appointment in May 2026, Fed Chair Kevin Warsh emphasized a data-dependent monetary policy approach, avoiding forward guidance and indicating that rate cuts are unlikely soon given persistent inflation. This stance contributed to a decline in market expectations for rate decreases and a gradual increase in the probability of a 25 bps rate hike by September.</p><div class="flex items-center gap-1.5 mt-3"><a href="https://finance.yahoo.com/personal-finance/banking/article/fed-rate-predictions-2026-154647304.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" class="flex items-center justify-center rounded-md overflow-hidden bg-white" style="width:28px;height:28px;border:1px solid var(--color-pk-border)" data-state="closed" data-slot="tooltip-trigger"><img src="https://www.google.com/s2/favicons?domain=finance.yahoo.com&amp;sz=64" alt="Yahoo Finance" referrerPolicy="no-referrer" width="18" height="18" loading="lazy" style="object-fit:contain"/></a></div></div></div><div class="flex gap-3 relative !h-0 !overflow-hidden !p-0 !m-0" style="content-visibility:hidden" inert="" aria-hidden="true"><div class="flex flex-col items-center shrink-0"><div class="w-px h-[7px] bg-pk-border"></div><div class="w-3 h-3 rounded-full border-2 border-pk-gray-300 bg-pk-surface shrink-0"></div><div class="w-px flex-1 bg-pk-border"></div></div><div class="flex-1 pb-8"><span class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary">May 22 2026</span><p class="text-body-base font-semibold text-pk-content-primary leading-5 mt-1">Fed Governor Waller Discusses Economic Outlook Amid Inflation and Tariff Effects</p><p class="flex items-center gap-1 text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary mt-0.5"><span>No change<!-- --> <!-- -->surges to<!-- --> <!-- -->74<!-- -->%</span><span class="inline-flex items-center gap-0.5 font-semibold text-pk-content-accent-green"><svg width="8" height="8" viewBox="0 0 12 12" fill="none" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><path d="M6.51952 2.5C6.28858 2.1 5.71123 2.1 5.48029 2.5L1.84298 8.8C1.61204 9.2 1.90072 9.7 2.3626 9.7L9.63721 9.7C10.0991 9.7 10.3878 9.2 10.1568 8.8L6.51952 2.5Z" fill="currentColor"></path></svg>21<!-- -->%</span></p><p class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-secondary leading-5 mt-1">Governor Christopher J. Waller&#x27;s speech highlighted the modest effects of import tariffs on inflation and the ongoing elevated inflation pressures, signaling cautious Fed policy. This contributed to early market positioning for no rate cuts and potential future hikes, supporting the &#x27;No change&#x27; outcome.</p><div class="flex items-center gap-1.5 mt-3"><a href="https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/waller20260713a.htm" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" class="flex items-center justify-center rounded-md overflow-hidden bg-white" style="width:28px;height:28px;border:1px solid var(--color-pk-border)" data-state="closed" data-slot="tooltip-trigger"><img src="https://www.google.com/s2/favicons?domain=www.federalreserve.gov&amp;sz=64" alt="Federal Reserve Board" referrerPolicy="no-referrer" width="18" height="18" loading="lazy" style="object-fit:contain"/></a></div></div></div><div class="flex gap-3 relative !h-0 !overflow-hidden !p-0 !m-0" style="content-visibility:hidden" inert="" aria-hidden="true"><div class="flex flex-col items-center shrink-0"><div class="w-px h-[7px] bg-pk-border"></div><div class="w-3 h-3 rounded-full border-2 border-pk-gray-300 bg-pk-surface shrink-0"></div><div class="w-px flex-1 bg-pk-border"></div></div><div class="flex-1 pb-8"><span class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary">May 22 2026</span><p class="text-body-base font-semibold text-pk-content-primary leading-5 mt-1">Kevin Warsh appointed as new Federal Reserve Chairman</p><p class="flex items-center gap-1 text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary mt-0.5"><span>No change<!-- --> <!-- -->dips to<!-- --> <!-- -->74<!-- -->%</span><span class="inline-flex items-center gap-0.5 font-semibold text-pk-content-accent-red"><svg width="8" height="8" viewBox="0 0 12 12" fill="none" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><path d="M6.51952 9.5C6.28858 9.9 5.71123 9.9 5.48029 9.5L1.84298 3.2C1.61204 2.8 1.90072 2.3 2.3626 2.3L9.63721 2.3C10.0991 2.3 10.3878 2.8 10.1568 3.2L6.51952 9.5Z" fill="currentColor"></path></svg>2<!-- -->%</span></p><p class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-secondary leading-5 mt-1">Kevin Warsh succeeded Jerome Powell as Fed Chair, signaling a shift towards data-driven policy without forward guidance. This increased market uncertainty about future rate moves, contributing to fluctuating expectations but overall supporting a cautious approach with no immediate rate changes.</p><div class="flex items-center gap-1.5 mt-3"><a href="https://www.aol.de/articles/federal-raise-lower-interest-rates-102000196.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" class="flex items-center justify-center rounded-md overflow-hidden bg-white" style="width:28px;height:28px;border:1px solid var(--color-pk-border)" data-state="closed" data-slot="tooltip-trigger"><img src="https://www.google.com/s2/favicons?domain=www.aol.de&amp;sz=64" alt="AOL" referrerPolicy="no-referrer" width="18" height="18" loading="lazy" style="object-fit:contain"/></a></div></div></div><div class="flex gap-3 relative !h-0 !overflow-hidden !p-0 !m-0" style="content-visibility:hidden" inert="" aria-hidden="true"><div class="flex flex-col items-center shrink-0"><div class="w-px h-[7px] bg-pk-border"></div><div class="w-3 h-3 rounded-full border-2 border-pk-gray-300 bg-pk-surface shrink-0"></div><div class="w-px flex-1 bg-pk-border"></div></div><div class="flex-1 pb-8"><span class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary">May 22 2026</span><p class="text-body-base font-semibold text-pk-content-primary leading-5 mt-1">Kevin Warsh sworn in as new Federal Reserve Chair at White House</p><p class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-secondary leading-5 mt-1">Kevin Warsh was officially sworn in as the 17th Chair of the Federal Reserve, marking a leadership transition from Jerome Powell. His appointment introduced market uncertainty about future rate policy, as Warsh emphasized independence and reform but faced political pressures.</p><div class="flex items-center gap-1.5 mt-3"><a href="https://www.cbsnews.com/news/kevin-warsh-sworn-in-federal-reserve-chair/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" class="flex items-center justify-center rounded-md overflow-hidden bg-white" style="width:28px;height:28px;border:1px solid var(--color-pk-border)" data-state="closed" data-slot="tooltip-trigger"><img src="https://www.google.com/s2/favicons?domain=www.cbsnews.com&amp;sz=64" alt="CBS News" referrerPolicy="no-referrer" width="18" height="18" loading="lazy" style="object-fit:contain"/></a><a href="https://www.aljazeera.com/economy/2026/5/22/kevin-warsh-sworn-in-as-new-us-fed-chair" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" class="flex items-center justify-center rounded-md overflow-hidden bg-white" style="width:28px;height:28px;border:1px solid var(--color-pk-border)" data-state="closed" data-slot="tooltip-trigger"><img src="https://www.google.com/s2/favicons?domain=www.aljazeera.com&amp;sz=64" alt="Al Jazeera" referrerPolicy="no-referrer" width="18" height="18" loading="lazy" style="object-fit:contain"/></a></div></div></div><div class="flex gap-3 relative !h-0 !overflow-hidden !p-0 !m-0" style="content-visibility:hidden" inert="" aria-hidden="true"><div class="flex flex-col items-center shrink-0"><div class="w-px h-[7px] bg-pk-border"></div><div class="w-3 h-3 rounded-full border-2 border-pk-gray-300 bg-pk-surface shrink-0"></div><div class="w-px flex-1 bg-pk-border"></div></div><div class="flex-1 pb-8"><span class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary">May 20 2026</span><p class="text-body-base font-semibold text-pk-content-primary leading-5 mt-1">Fed Officials See Rate Hike Ahead if Inflation Remains Elevated</p><p class="flex items-center gap-1 text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary mt-0.5"><span>25 bps increase<!-- --> <!-- -->jumps to<!-- --> <!-- -->38<!-- -->%</span><span class="inline-flex items-center gap-0.5 font-semibold text-pk-content-accent-green"><svg width="8" height="8" viewBox="0 0 12 12" fill="none" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><path d="M6.51952 2.5C6.28858 2.1 5.71123 2.1 5.48029 2.5L1.84298 8.8C1.61204 9.2 1.90072 9.7 2.3626 9.7L9.63721 9.7C10.0991 9.7 10.3878 9.2 10.1568 8.8L6.51952 2.5Z" fill="currentColor"></path></svg>12<!-- -->%</span></p><p class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-secondary leading-5 mt-1">Minutes from the May 2026 meeting revealed that many Fed officials anticipated the need for interest rate increases if inflationary pressures, exacerbated by geopolitical tensions, persisted. This hawkish sentiment contributed to market pricing in a higher likelihood of rate hikes later in 2026, influencing the market&#x27;s evolving expectations.</p><div class="flex items-center gap-1.5 mt-3"><a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2026/05/20/fed-officials-see-rate-hike-ahead-if-inflation-stays-elevated-minutes-show.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" class="flex items-center justify-center rounded-md overflow-hidden bg-white" style="width:28px;height:28px;border:1px solid var(--color-pk-border)" data-state="closed" data-slot="tooltip-trigger"><img src="https://www.google.com/s2/favicons?domain=www.cnbc.com&amp;sz=64" alt="CNBC" referrerPolicy="no-referrer" width="18" height="18" loading="lazy" style="object-fit:contain"/></a></div></div></div><div class="flex gap-3 relative !h-0 !overflow-hidden !p-0 !m-0" style="content-visibility:hidden" inert="" aria-hidden="true"><div class="flex flex-col items-center shrink-0"><div class="w-px h-[7px] bg-pk-border"></div><div class="w-3 h-3 rounded-full border-2 border-pk-gray-300 bg-pk-surface shrink-0"></div><div class="w-px flex-1 bg-pk-border"></div></div><div class="flex-1 pb-8"><span class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary">May 20 2026</span><p class="text-body-base font-semibold text-pk-content-primary leading-5 mt-1">Fed Minutes Reveal Split Views on Inflation and Rate Cuts Amid Middle East Conflict</p><p class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-secondary leading-5 mt-1">Minutes from the May 2026 FOMC meeting showed a divided committee with some participants advocating for rate cuts if inflation pressures eased and the Middle East conflict resolved, while others expressed concern about embedded inflation risks due to elevated energy prices and tariffs. This uncertainty contributed to market volatility and shifting rate hike probabilities.</p><div class="flex items-center gap-1.5 mt-3"><a href="https://www.cryptocraft.com/news/1399278-minutes-of-the-federal-open-market-committee" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" class="flex items-center justify-center rounded-md overflow-hidden bg-white" style="width:28px;height:28px;border:1px solid var(--color-pk-border)" data-state="closed" data-slot="tooltip-trigger"><img src="https://www.google.com/s2/favicons?domain=www.cryptocraft.com&amp;sz=64" alt="FinancialJuice" referrerPolicy="no-referrer" width="18" height="18" loading="lazy" style="object-fit:contain"/></a></div></div></div><div class="flex gap-3 relative !h-0 !overflow-hidden !p-0 !m-0" style="content-visibility:hidden" inert="" aria-hidden="true"><div class="flex flex-col items-center shrink-0"><div class="w-px h-[7px] bg-pk-border"></div><div class="w-3 h-3 rounded-full border-2 border-pk-gray-300 bg-pk-surface shrink-0"></div><div class="w-px flex-1 bg-pk-border"></div></div><div class="flex-1 pb-8"><span class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary">May 20 2026</span><p class="text-body-base font-semibold text-pk-content-primary leading-5 mt-1">Fed officials see rate hike ahead if inflation stays elevated, minutes show</p><p class="flex items-center gap-1 text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary mt-0.5"><span>No change<!-- --> <!-- -->surges to<!-- --> <!-- -->81<!-- -->%</span><span class="inline-flex items-center gap-0.5 font-semibold text-pk-content-accent-green"><svg width="8" height="8" viewBox="0 0 12 12" fill="none" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><path d="M6.51952 2.5C6.28858 2.1 5.71123 2.1 5.48029 2.5L1.84298 8.8C1.61204 9.2 1.90072 9.7 2.3626 9.7L9.63721 9.7C10.0991 9.7 10.3878 9.2 10.1568 8.8L6.51952 2.5Z" fill="currentColor"></path></svg>28<!-- -->%</span></p><p class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-secondary leading-5 mt-1">Minutes from the Fed&#x27;s May meeting revealed that many officials anticipated the need for interest rate increases if inflation, exacerbated by the Iran war, remained high. This signaled a shift away from earlier expectations of rate cuts and contributed to market uncertainty.</p><div class="flex items-center gap-1.5 mt-3"><a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2026/05/20/fed-officials-see-rate-hike-ahead-if-inflation-stays-elevated-minutes-show.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" class="flex items-center justify-center rounded-md overflow-hidden bg-white" style="width:28px;height:28px;border:1px solid var(--color-pk-border)" data-state="closed" data-slot="tooltip-trigger"><img src="https://www.google.com/s2/favicons?domain=www.cnbc.com&amp;sz=64" alt="CNBC" referrerPolicy="no-referrer" width="18" height="18" loading="lazy" style="object-fit:contain"/></a></div></div></div><div class="flex gap-3 relative !h-0 !overflow-hidden !p-0 !m-0" style="content-visibility:hidden" inert="" aria-hidden="true"><div class="flex flex-col items-center shrink-0"><div class="w-px h-[7px] bg-pk-border"></div><div class="w-3 h-3 rounded-full border-2 border-pk-gray-300 bg-pk-surface shrink-0"></div><div class="w-px flex-1 bg-pk-border"></div></div><div class="flex-1 pb-8"><span class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary">May 19 2026</span><p class="text-body-base font-semibold text-pk-content-primary leading-5 mt-1">Federal Reserve holds interest rates steady amid inflation concerns</p><p class="flex items-center gap-1 text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary mt-0.5"><span>No change<!-- --> <!-- -->surges to<!-- --> <!-- -->80<!-- -->%</span><span class="inline-flex items-center gap-0.5 font-semibold text-pk-content-accent-green"><svg width="8" height="8" viewBox="0 0 12 12" fill="none" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><path d="M6.51952 2.5C6.28858 2.1 5.71123 2.1 5.48029 2.5L1.84298 8.8C1.61204 9.2 1.90072 9.7 2.3626 9.7L9.63721 9.7C10.0991 9.7 10.3878 9.2 10.1568 8.8L6.51952 2.5Z" fill="currentColor"></path></svg>27<!-- -->%</span></p><p class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-secondary leading-5 mt-1">The Federal Reserve decided to keep the federal funds rate at 3.50%–3.75% during the May 2026 FOMC meeting, citing persistent inflation above the 2% target and supply shocks, particularly in energy. This decision reinforced market expectations of no immediate rate cuts and maintained a cautious outlook on future hikes.</p><div class="flex items-center gap-1.5 mt-3"><a href="https://ccabalt.com/macroeconomic-quarterly-update-may-2026/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" class="flex items-center justify-center rounded-md overflow-hidden bg-white" style="width:28px;height:28px;border:1px solid var(--color-pk-border)" data-state="closed" data-slot="tooltip-trigger"><img src="https://www.google.com/s2/favicons?domain=ccabalt.com&amp;sz=64" alt="Chesapeake Corporate Advisors" referrerPolicy="no-referrer" width="18" height="18" loading="lazy" style="object-fit:contain"/></a></div></div></div><div class="flex gap-3 relative !h-0 !overflow-hidden !p-0 !m-0" style="content-visibility:hidden" inert="" aria-hidden="true"><div class="flex flex-col items-center shrink-0"><div class="w-px h-[7px] bg-pk-border"></div><div class="w-3 h-3 rounded-full border-2 border-pk-gray-300 bg-pk-surface shrink-0"></div><div class="w-px flex-1 bg-pk-border"></div></div><div class="flex-1 pb-8"><span class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary">May 13 2026</span><p class="text-body-base font-semibold text-pk-content-primary leading-5 mt-1">Inflation rises to highest level in three years amid Iran conflict</p><p class="flex items-center gap-1 text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary mt-0.5"><span>25 bps increase<!-- --> <!-- -->drops to<!-- --> <!-- -->12<!-- -->%</span><span class="inline-flex items-center gap-0.5 font-semibold text-pk-content-accent-red"><svg width="8" height="8" viewBox="0 0 12 12" fill="none" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><path d="M6.51952 9.5C6.28858 9.9 5.71123 9.9 5.48029 9.5L1.84298 3.2C1.61204 2.8 1.90072 2.3 2.3626 2.3L9.63721 2.3C10.0991 2.3 10.3878 2.8 10.1568 3.2L6.51952 9.5Z" fill="currentColor"></path></svg>14<!-- -->%</span></p><p class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-secondary leading-5 mt-1">US inflation rose 4.2% year over year in May, the highest in three years, driven by energy price spikes and supply chain disruptions from the Iran war. This diminished hopes for rate cuts and increased the likelihood of rate hikes later in 2026.</p><div class="flex items-center gap-1.5 mt-3"><a href="https://www.aol.de/articles/federal-raise-lower-interest-rates-102000196.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" class="flex items-center justify-center rounded-md overflow-hidden bg-white" style="width:28px;height:28px;border:1px solid var(--color-pk-border)" data-state="closed" data-slot="tooltip-trigger"><img src="https://www.google.com/s2/favicons?domain=www.aol.de&amp;sz=64" alt="AOL" referrerPolicy="no-referrer" width="18" height="18" loading="lazy" style="object-fit:contain"/></a></div></div></div><div class="flex gap-3 relative !h-0 !overflow-hidden !p-0 !m-0" style="content-visibility:hidden" inert="" aria-hidden="true"><div class="flex flex-col items-center shrink-0"><div class="w-px h-[7px] bg-pk-border"></div><div class="w-3 h-3 rounded-full border-2 border-pk-gray-300 bg-pk-surface shrink-0"></div><div class="w-px flex-1 bg-pk-border"></div></div><div class="flex-1 pb-8"><span class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary">May 13 2026</span><p class="text-body-base font-semibold text-pk-content-primary leading-5 mt-1">May CPI data shows 4.2% annual inflation amid Iran war impact</p><p class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-secondary leading-5 mt-1">The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported a 0.5% monthly increase in CPI and 4.2% annual inflation in May 2026, the highest in three years, driven by higher energy prices due to the Iran war. This elevated inflation raised expectations for continued Fed vigilance on rates.</p><div class="flex items-center gap-1.5 mt-3"><a href="https://www.welchforbes.com/insights/economic-outlook-july-2026/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" class="flex items-center justify-center rounded-md overflow-hidden bg-white" style="width:28px;height:28px;border:1px solid var(--color-pk-border)" data-state="closed" data-slot="tooltip-trigger"><img src="https://www.google.com/s2/favicons?domain=www.welchforbes.com&amp;sz=64" alt="Welch &amp; Forbes" referrerPolicy="no-referrer" width="18" height="18" loading="lazy" style="object-fit:contain"/></a></div></div></div><div class="flex gap-3 relative !h-0 !overflow-hidden !p-0 !m-0" style="content-visibility:hidden" inert="" aria-hidden="true"><div class="flex flex-col items-center shrink-0"><div class="w-px h-[7px] bg-pk-border"></div><div class="w-3 h-3 rounded-full border-2 border-pk-gray-300 bg-pk-surface shrink-0"></div><div class="w-px flex-1 bg-pk-border"></div></div><div class="flex-1 pb-8"><span class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary">May 13 2026</span><p class="text-body-base font-semibold text-pk-content-primary leading-5 mt-1">Market anticipates Fed rate cut path in 2026 amid economic uncertainty</p><p class="flex items-center gap-1 text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary mt-0.5"><span>No change<!-- --> <!-- -->rises to<!-- --> <!-- -->55<!-- -->%</span><span class="inline-flex items-center gap-0.5 font-semibold text-pk-content-accent-green"><svg width="8" height="8" viewBox="0 0 12 12" fill="none" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><path d="M6.51952 2.5C6.28858 2.1 5.71123 2.1 5.48029 2.5L1.84298 8.8C1.61204 9.2 1.90072 9.7 2.3626 9.7L9.63721 9.7C10.0991 9.7 10.3878 9.2 10.1568 8.8L6.51952 2.5Z" fill="currentColor"></path></svg>2<!-- -->%</span></p><p class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-secondary leading-5 mt-1">Early in the analysis window, markets priced in a significant probability of rate cuts in 2026, reflecting uncertainty about inflation and economic growth. However, this sentiment shifted as inflation remained elevated and the Fed under new leadership signaled a more hawkish stance, reducing expectations for cuts and increasing the likelihood of hikes later in the year.</p><div class="flex items-center gap-1.5 mt-3"><a href="https://predict.info/markets/fed-chair-cut-signal-may" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" class="flex items-center justify-center rounded-md overflow-hidden bg-white" style="width:28px;height:28px;border:1px solid var(--color-pk-border)" data-state="closed" data-slot="tooltip-trigger"><img src="https://www.google.com/s2/favicons?domain=predict.info&amp;sz=64" alt="Predict.info" referrerPolicy="no-referrer" width="18" height="18" loading="lazy" style="object-fit:contain"/></a></div></div></div><div class="flex gap-3 relative !h-0 !overflow-hidden !p-0 !m-0" style="content-visibility:hidden" inert="" aria-hidden="true"><div class="flex flex-col items-center shrink-0"><div class="w-px h-[7px] bg-pk-border"></div><div class="w-3 h-3 rounded-full border-2 border-pk-gray-300 bg-pk-surface shrink-0"></div><div class="w-px flex-1 bg-pk-border"></div></div><div class="flex-1 pb-8"><span class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary">May 13 2026</span><p class="text-body-base font-semibold text-pk-content-primary leading-5 mt-1">Federal Reserve holds interest rates steady at 3.50%-3.75% amid inflation concerns</p><p class="flex items-center gap-1 text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary mt-0.5"><span>No change<!-- --> <!-- -->surges to<!-- --> <!-- -->80<!-- -->%</span><span class="inline-flex items-center gap-0.5 font-semibold text-pk-content-accent-green"><svg width="8" height="8" viewBox="0 0 12 12" fill="none" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><path d="M6.51952 2.5C6.28858 2.1 5.71123 2.1 5.48029 2.5L1.84298 8.8C1.61204 9.2 1.90072 9.7 2.3626 9.7L9.63721 9.7C10.0991 9.7 10.3878 9.2 10.1568 8.8L6.51952 2.5Z" fill="currentColor"></path></svg>27<!-- -->%</span></p><p class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-secondary leading-5 mt-1">The Federal Open Market Committee decided to maintain the target federal funds rate range at 3.50% to 3.75%, citing elevated inflation and geopolitical uncertainty, including the Iran conflict. This decision reinforced market expectations for a pause in rate changes in the near term.</p><div class="flex items-center gap-1.5 mt-3"><a href="https://www.fox2detroit.com/news/federal-reserve-keeps-rate-unchanged-1st-meeting-2026" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" class="flex items-center justify-center rounded-md overflow-hidden bg-white" style="width:28px;height:28px;border:1px solid var(--color-pk-border)" data-state="closed" data-slot="tooltip-trigger"><img src="https://www.google.com/s2/favicons?domain=www.fox2detroit.com&amp;sz=64" alt="FOX 2 Detroit" referrerPolicy="no-referrer" width="18" height="18" loading="lazy" style="object-fit:contain"/></a></div></div></div><div class="flex gap-3 relative !h-0 !overflow-hidden !p-0 !m-0" style="content-visibility:hidden" inert="" aria-hidden="true"><div class="flex flex-col items-center shrink-0"><div class="w-px h-[7px] bg-pk-border"></div><div class="w-3 h-3 rounded-full border-2 border-pk-gray-300 bg-pk-surface shrink-0"></div><div class="w-px flex-1 bg-pk-border"></div></div><div class="flex-1 pb-8"><span class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary">May 13 2026</span><p class="text-body-base font-semibold text-pk-content-primary leading-5 mt-1">US inflation rises to 4.2% in May, highest in three years amid energy price shock</p><p class="flex items-center gap-1 text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary mt-0.5"><span>25 bps increase<!-- --> <!-- -->drops to<!-- --> <!-- -->12<!-- -->%</span><span class="inline-flex items-center gap-0.5 font-semibold text-pk-content-accent-red"><svg width="8" height="8" viewBox="0 0 12 12" fill="none" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><path d="M6.51952 9.5C6.28858 9.9 5.71123 9.9 5.48029 9.5L1.84298 3.2C1.61204 2.8 1.90072 2.3 2.3626 2.3L9.63721 2.3C10.0991 2.3 10.3878 2.8 10.1568 3.2L6.51952 9.5Z" fill="currentColor"></path></svg>14<!-- -->%</span></p><p class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-secondary leading-5 mt-1">US Consumer Price Index inflation accelerated to 4.2% year-over-year in May 2026, driven mainly by energy price shocks linked to Middle East conflicts. This surge diminished hopes for rate cuts and increased market expectations for a potential rate hike later in the year.</p><div class="flex items-center gap-1.5 mt-3"><a href="https://cambridgecurrencies.com/next-federal-reserve-interest-rate-decision/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" class="flex items-center justify-center rounded-md overflow-hidden bg-white" style="width:28px;height:28px;border:1px solid var(--color-pk-border)" data-state="closed" data-slot="tooltip-trigger"><img src="https://www.google.com/s2/favicons?domain=cambridgecurrencies.com&amp;sz=64" alt="Cambridge Currencies" referrerPolicy="no-referrer" width="18" height="18" loading="lazy" style="object-fit:contain"/></a></div></div></div><div class="flex gap-3 relative !h-0 !overflow-hidden !p-0 !m-0" style="content-visibility:hidden" inert="" aria-hidden="true"><div class="flex flex-col items-center shrink-0"><div class="w-px h-[7px] bg-pk-border"></div><div class="w-3 h-3 rounded-full border-2 border-pk-gray-300 bg-pk-surface shrink-0"></div><div class="w-px flex-1 bg-pk-border"></div></div><div class="flex-1 pb-8"><span class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary">May 13 2026</span><p class="text-body-base font-semibold text-pk-content-primary leading-5 mt-1">Federal Reserve maintains steady rates amid mixed economic signals</p><p class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-secondary leading-5 mt-1">At the start of the analysis window, the Fed held rates steady as economic data showed mixed signals on inflation and growth. Market prices reflected uncertainty, with the &#x27;No change&#x27; and &#x27;25 bps increase&#x27; options both holding significant probabilities.</p><div class="flex items-center gap-1.5 mt-3"><a href="https://www.fox4news.com/news/federal-reserve-keeps-rate-unchanged-1st-meeting-2026" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" class="flex items-center justify-center rounded-md overflow-hidden bg-white" style="width:28px;height:28px;border:1px solid var(--color-pk-border)" data-state="closed" data-slot="tooltip-trigger"><img src="https://www.google.com/s2/favicons?domain=www.fox4news.com&amp;sz=64" alt="Fox 4 Dallas-Fort Worth" referrerPolicy="no-referrer" width="18" height="18" loading="lazy" style="object-fit:contain"/></a></div></div></div><div class="flex gap-3 relative !h-0 !overflow-hidden !p-0 !m-0" style="content-visibility:hidden" inert="" aria-hidden="true"><div class="flex flex-col items-center shrink-0"><div class="w-px h-[7px] bg-pk-border"></div><div class="w-3 h-3 rounded-full border-2 border-pk-gray-300 bg-pk-surface shrink-0"></div><div class="w-px flex-1 bg-pk-border"></div></div><div class="flex-1 pb-8"><span class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary">May 13 2026</span><p class="text-body-base font-semibold text-pk-content-primary leading-5 mt-1">Stronger-than-expected inflation report shifts market outlook away from rate cuts</p><p class="flex items-center gap-1 text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary mt-0.5"><span>25 bps increase<!-- --> <!-- -->jumps to<!-- --> <!-- -->38<!-- -->%</span><span class="inline-flex items-center gap-0.5 font-semibold text-pk-content-accent-green"><svg width="8" height="8" viewBox="0 0 12 12" fill="none" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><path d="M6.51952 2.5C6.28858 2.1 5.71123 2.1 5.48029 2.5L1.84298 8.8C1.61204 9.2 1.90072 9.7 2.3626 9.7L9.63721 9.7C10.0991 9.7 10.3878 9.2 10.1568 8.8L6.51952 2.5Z" fill="currentColor"></path></svg>12<!-- -->%</span></p><p class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-secondary leading-5 mt-1">A May inflation report showed a 4.2% annual CPI increase, the highest in three years, raising concerns about persistent inflation and reducing expectations for near-term Fed rate cuts. This led markets to price in a higher chance of a rate hike later in 2026.</p><div class="flex items-center gap-1.5 mt-3"><a href="https://primerates.com/may-2026-cpi-inflation-4-2-percent-core-2-9-june-fed/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" class="flex items-center justify-center rounded-md overflow-hidden bg-white" style="width:28px;height:28px;border:1px solid var(--color-pk-border)" data-state="closed" data-slot="tooltip-trigger"><img src="https://www.google.com/s2/favicons?domain=primerates.com&amp;sz=64" alt="PrimeRates" referrerPolicy="no-referrer" width="18" height="18" loading="lazy" style="object-fit:contain"/></a></div></div></div><div class="flex gap-3 relative !h-0 !overflow-hidden !p-0 !m-0" style="content-visibility:hidden" inert="" aria-hidden="true"><div class="flex flex-col items-center shrink-0"><div class="w-px h-[7px] bg-pk-border"></div><div class="w-3 h-3 rounded-full border-2 border-pk-gray-300 bg-pk-surface shrink-0"></div><div class="w-px flex-1 bg-pk-border"></div></div><div class="flex-1 pb-8"><span class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary">May 13 2026</span><p class="text-body-base font-semibold text-pk-content-primary leading-5 mt-1">Kevin Warsh confirmed as Federal Reserve Chair by Senate</p><p class="flex items-center gap-1 text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary mt-0.5"><span>25 bps increase<!-- --> <!-- -->plunges to<!-- --> <!-- -->11<!-- -->%</span><span class="inline-flex items-center gap-0.5 font-semibold text-pk-content-accent-red"><svg width="8" height="8" viewBox="0 0 12 12" fill="none" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><path d="M6.51952 9.5C6.28858 9.9 5.71123 9.9 5.48029 9.5L1.84298 3.2C1.61204 2.8 1.90072 2.3 2.3626 2.3L9.63721 2.3C10.0991 2.3 10.3878 2.8 10.1568 3.2L6.51952 9.5Z" fill="currentColor"></path></svg>15<!-- -->%</span></p><p class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-secondary leading-5 mt-1">Kevin Warsh&#x27;s confirmation as Fed Chair introduced expectations of a hawkish monetary policy stance amid ongoing inflation challenges, influencing market pricing toward a potential rate hike later in 2026.</p><div class="flex items-center gap-1.5 mt-3"><a href="https://polymarket.copilot.markets/event/fed-decision-in-september-762" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" class="flex items-center justify-center rounded-md overflow-hidden bg-white" style="width:28px;height:28px;border:1px solid var(--color-pk-border)" data-state="closed" data-slot="tooltip-trigger"><img src="https://www.google.com/s2/favicons?domain=polymarket.copilot.markets&amp;sz=64" alt="Polymarket" referrerPolicy="no-referrer" width="18" height="18" loading="lazy" style="object-fit:contain"/></a></div></div></div><div class="flex gap-3 relative !h-0 !overflow-hidden !p-0 !m-0" style="content-visibility:hidden" inert="" aria-hidden="true"><div class="flex flex-col items-center shrink-0"><div class="w-px h-[7px] bg-pk-border"></div><div class="w-3 h-3 rounded-full border-2 border-pk-gray-300 bg-pk-surface shrink-0"></div><div class="w-px flex-1 bg-pk-border"></div></div><div class="flex-1 pb-8"><span class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary">May 13 2026</span><p class="text-body-base font-semibold text-pk-content-primary leading-5 mt-1">US inflation rises 4.2% year over year, highest in three years</p><p class="flex items-center gap-1 text-body-sm text-pk-content-tertiary mt-0.5"><span>No change<!-- --> <!-- -->plunges to<!-- --> <!-- -->50<!-- -->%</span><span class="inline-flex items-center gap-0.5 font-semibold text-pk-content-accent-red"><svg width="8" height="8" viewBox="0 0 12 12" fill="none" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><path d="M6.51952 9.5C6.28858 9.9 5.71123 9.9 5.48029 9.5L1.84298 3.2C1.61204 2.8 1.90072 2.3 2.3626 2.3L9.63721 2.3C10.0991 2.3 10.3878 2.8 10.1568 3.2L6.51952 9.5Z" fill="currentColor"></path></svg>17<!-- -->%</span></p><p class="text-body-sm text-pk-content-secondary leading-5 mt-1">Inflation data released in May showed a 4.2% increase year over year, the highest in three years, dampening hopes for rate cuts and supporting expectations that the Fed would maintain or raise rates to combat inflation.</p><div class="flex items-center gap-1.5 mt-3"><a href="https://www.aol.de/articles/federal-raise-lower-interest-rates-102000196.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" class="flex items-center justify-center rounded-md overflow-hidden bg-white" style="width:28px;height:28px;border:1px solid var(--color-pk-border)" data-state="closed" data-slot="tooltip-trigger"><img src="https://www.google.com/s2/favicons?domain=www.aol.de&amp;sz=64" alt="AOL" referrerPolicy="no-referrer" width="18" height="18" loading="lazy" style="object-fit:contain"/></a></div></div></div><div class="flex justify-center mt-4"><button type="button" class="text-body-sm font-medium text-pk-content-primary px-4 py-2 rounded-full border border-pk-border cursor-pointer transition-colors hover:bg-pk-hover-overlay-darker">Show more</button></div></div></article></div></div></div></div><div class="fresnel-container fresnel-lessThan-lg fresnel-_R_18qt4ltcnpfmi9arjabaivb_ contents"><div class="mt-4"><div class="flex flex-col w-full px-0 lg:px-1"><h3 class="text-pk-content-primary text-base font-medium mb-2 mt-2 lg:hidden">Related</h3><div class="w-[95%] mx-auto h-px border-t border-dashed border-pk-gray-200 mb-6 not-lg:hidden"></div><div class="mb-4 -mx-1 lg:mx-0"><div data-arrow-visibility="off" class="relative"><div class="pk-scroll-fade-x-stateful flex overflow-x-auto snap-x scroll-px-3 snap-mandatory no-scrollbar px-2 items-center" data-scroll-fade-initial=""><div class="flex gap-2"><button class="inline-flex items-center cursor-pointer active:scale-[97%] transition duration-150 justify-center gap-2 font-semibold focus-visible:outline-none focus-visible:ring-1 focus-visible:ring-ring disabled:pointer-events-none disabled:opacity-50 [&amp;_svg]:pointer-events-none [&amp;_svg]:shrink-0 h-8 px-3 text-body-sm whitespace-nowrap rounded-lg snap-start shrink-0 bg-mix-1-pk-grouped text-pk-content-primary hover:bg-mix-2-hover-darker">All</button><button class="inline-flex items-center cursor-pointer active:scale-[97%] transition duration-150 justify-center gap-2 font-semibold focus-visible:outline-none focus-visible:ring-1 focus-visible:ring-ring disabled:pointer-events-none disabled:opacity-50 [&amp;_svg]:pointer-events-none [&amp;_svg]:shrink-0 bg-button-ghost-bg h-8 px-3 text-body-sm whitespace-nowrap rounded-lg snap-start shrink-0 text-pk-content-secondary hover:bg-pk-hover-overlay-darker hover:text-pk-content-primary">Economy</button><button class="inline-flex items-center cursor-pointer active:scale-[97%] transition duration-150 justify-center gap-2 font-semibold focus-visible:outline-none focus-visible:ring-1 focus-visible:ring-ring disabled:pointer-events-none disabled:opacity-50 [&amp;_svg]:pointer-events-none [&amp;_svg]:shrink-0 bg-button-ghost-bg h-8 px-3 text-body-sm whitespace-nowrap rounded-lg snap-start shrink-0 text-pk-content-secondary hover:bg-pk-hover-overlay-darker hover:text-pk-content-primary">Fed</button><button class="inline-flex items-center cursor-pointer active:scale-[97%] transition duration-150 justify-center gap-2 font-semibold focus-visible:outline-none focus-visible:ring-1 focus-visible:ring-ring disabled:pointer-events-none disabled:opacity-50 [&amp;_svg]:pointer-events-none [&amp;_svg]:shrink-0 bg-button-ghost-bg h-8 px-3 text-body-sm whitespace-nowrap rounded-lg snap-start shrink-0 text-pk-content-secondary hover:bg-pk-hover-overlay-darker hover:text-pk-content-primary">Jerome Powell</button></div></div></div></div><div class="flex flex-col w-full gap-4 lg:gap-2"><a href="/event/fed-decision-in-october-20260617190323537"><div class="relative py-1 lg:px-2.5 lg:py-2 flex flex-row items-center gap-2.5 w-full cursor-pointer rounded-lg bg-button-ghost-bg lg:hover:bg-button-ghost-bg-hover"><div class="relative overflow-hidden rounded-md" style="height:40px;width:40px;min-width:40px"><div class="overflow-hidden bg-pk-grouped/50 before:absolute before:inset-0 before:-translate-x-full before:-skew-x-12 before:animate-[skeletonShimmer_2s_infinite] before:bg-gradient-to-r before:from-transparent before:via-pk-grouped before:to-transparent absolute top-0 left-0 rounded-[inherit]" style="width:40px;height:40px;min-width:40px;opacity:1"></div><img alt="icon for Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?" loading="lazy" decoding="async" data-nimg="fill" class="object-cover" style="position:absolute;height:100%;width:100%;left:0;top:0;right:0;bottom:0;color:transparent" sizes="(max-width: 768px) 15vw, (max-width: 1400px) 10vw, 90px" srcSet="/_next/image?url=https%3A%2F%2Fpolymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com%2Ffed-decision-in-september-762-c4RyWuxRPo1L.jpg&amp;w=96&amp;q=75 96w, /_next/image?url=https%3A%2F%2Fpolymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com%2Ffed-decision-in-september-762-c4RyWuxRPo1L.jpg&amp;w=256&amp;q=75 256w, /_next/image?url=https%3A%2F%2Fpolymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com%2Ffed-decision-in-september-762-c4RyWuxRPo1L.jpg&amp;w=600&amp;q=75 600w, /_next/image?url=https%3A%2F%2Fpolymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com%2Ffed-decision-in-september-762-c4RyWuxRPo1L.jpg&amp;w=1024&amp;q=75 1024w" src="/_next/image?url=https%3A%2F%2Fpolymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com%2Ffed-decision-in-september-762-c4RyWuxRPo1L.jpg&amp;w=1024&amp;q=75"/></div><div class="flex flex-col flex-1 gap-0.5"><p class="text-pk-content-primary font-semibold line-clamp-2 text-[13px] tracking-[-0.09px]">Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?</p></div><div class="flex flex-col my-auto items-end ml-1"><div class="flex flex-row gap-2 items-center"><span class="text-pk-content-primary font-medium text-base lg:text-lg leading-normal">68%</span></div></div></div></a><a href="/event/fed-decision-in-december-20260729232808632"><div class="relative py-1 lg:px-2.5 lg:py-2 flex flex-row items-center gap-2.5 w-full cursor-pointer rounded-lg bg-button-ghost-bg lg:hover:bg-button-ghost-bg-hover"><div class="relative overflow-hidden rounded-md" style="height:40px;width:40px;min-width:40px"><div class="overflow-hidden bg-pk-grouped/50 before:absolute before:inset-0 before:-translate-x-full before:-skew-x-12 before:animate-[skeletonShimmer_2s_infinite] before:bg-gradient-to-r before:from-transparent before:via-pk-grouped before:to-transparent absolute top-0 left-0 rounded-[inherit]" style="width:40px;height:40px;min-width:40px;opacity:1"></div><img alt="icon for Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the December 2026 meeting?" loading="lazy" decoding="async" data-nimg="fill" class="object-cover" style="position:absolute;height:100%;width:100%;left:0;top:0;right:0;bottom:0;color:transparent" sizes="(max-width: 768px) 15vw, (max-width: 1400px) 10vw, 90px" srcSet="/_next/image?url=https%3A%2F%2Fpolymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com%2Ffed-decision-in-september-762-c4RyWuxRPo1L.jpg&amp;w=96&amp;q=75 96w, /_next/image?url=https%3A%2F%2Fpolymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com%2Ffed-decision-in-september-762-c4RyWuxRPo1L.jpg&amp;w=256&amp;q=75 256w, /_next/image?url=https%3A%2F%2Fpolymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com%2Ffed-decision-in-september-762-c4RyWuxRPo1L.jpg&amp;w=600&amp;q=75 600w, /_next/image?url=https%3A%2F%2Fpolymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com%2Ffed-decision-in-september-762-c4RyWuxRPo1L.jpg&amp;w=1024&amp;q=75 1024w" src="/_next/image?url=https%3A%2F%2Fpolymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com%2Ffed-decision-in-september-762-c4RyWuxRPo1L.jpg&amp;w=1024&amp;q=75"/></div><div class="flex flex-col flex-1 gap-0.5"><p class="text-pk-content-primary font-semibold line-clamp-2 text-[13px] tracking-[-0.09px]">Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the December 2026 meeting?</p></div><div class="flex flex-col my-auto items-end ml-1"><div class="flex flex-row gap-2 items-center"><span class="text-pk-content-primary font-medium text-base lg:text-lg leading-normal">49%</span></div></div></div></a><a href="/event/fed-decision-in-january-20260729233815502"><div class="relative py-1 lg:px-2.5 lg:py-2 flex flex-row items-center gap-2.5 w-full cursor-pointer rounded-lg bg-button-ghost-bg lg:hover:bg-button-ghost-bg-hover"><div class="relative overflow-hidden rounded-md" style="height:40px;width:40px;min-width:40px"><div class="overflow-hidden bg-pk-grouped/50 before:absolute before:inset-0 before:-translate-x-full before:-skew-x-12 before:animate-[skeletonShimmer_2s_infinite] before:bg-gradient-to-r before:from-transparent before:via-pk-grouped before:to-transparent absolute top-0 left-0 rounded-[inherit]" style="width:40px;height:40px;min-width:40px;opacity:1"></div><img alt="icon for Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the January 2027 meeting?" loading="lazy" decoding="async" data-nimg="fill" class="object-cover" style="position:absolute;height:100%;width:100%;left:0;top:0;right:0;bottom:0;color:transparent" sizes="(max-width: 768px) 15vw, (max-width: 1400px) 10vw, 90px" srcSet="/_next/image?url=https%3A%2F%2Fpolymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com%2Ffed-decision-in-september-762-c4RyWuxRPo1L.jpg&amp;w=96&amp;q=75 96w, /_next/image?url=https%3A%2F%2Fpolymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com%2Ffed-decision-in-september-762-c4RyWuxRPo1L.jpg&amp;w=256&amp;q=75 256w, /_next/image?url=https%3A%2F%2Fpolymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com%2Ffed-decision-in-september-762-c4RyWuxRPo1L.jpg&amp;w=600&amp;q=75 600w, /_next/image?url=https%3A%2F%2Fpolymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com%2Ffed-decision-in-september-762-c4RyWuxRPo1L.jpg&amp;w=1024&amp;q=75 1024w" src="/_next/image?url=https%3A%2F%2Fpolymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com%2Ffed-decision-in-september-762-c4RyWuxRPo1L.jpg&amp;w=1024&amp;q=75"/></div><div class="flex flex-col flex-1 gap-0.5"><p class="text-pk-content-primary font-semibold line-clamp-2 text-[13px] tracking-[-0.09px]">Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the January 2027 meeting?</p></div><div class="flex flex-col my-auto items-end ml-1"><div class="flex flex-row gap-2 items-center"><span class="text-pk-content-primary font-medium text-base lg:text-lg leading-normal">61%</span></div></div></div></a></div></div></div></div><div class="max-lg:mt-8 lg:mt-6 mb-1" id="comments"><div data-arrow-visibility="off" class="relative"><div class="pk-scroll-fade-x-stateful flex gap-4 overflow-x-auto no-scrollbar" data-scroll-fade-initial=""><h2 class="contents"><button type="button" class="text-heading-lg font-semibold cursor-pointer whitespace-nowrap shrink-0 transition-colors duration-150 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data-color="color-2"></path></svg></button><button class="inline-flex items-center cursor-pointer active:scale-[97%] transition duration-150 justify-center gap-2 whitespace-nowrap focus-visible:outline-none focus-visible:ring-1 focus-visible:ring-ring disabled:pointer-events-none disabled:opacity-50 [&amp;_svg]:pointer-events-none [&amp;_svg]:shrink-0 bg-button-primary-bg text-button-primary-text hover:bg-button-primary-bg-hover h-8 text-body-sm px-3.5 text-sm font-semibold rounded-md" type="submit" disabled="">Post</button></div></div></form><div aria-hidden="true" class="rah-static rah-static--height-zero " style="height:0;overflow:hidden"><div style="transition:opacity 200ms ease 0ms;-webkit-transition:opacity 200ms ease 0ms;opacity:0"><p id="_R_2algqt4ltcnpfmi9arjabaivb_" class="mt-1 px-3.5 text-xs text-pk-content-accent-red" aria-live="polite"></p></div></div></div></div><div class="lg:hidden mb-4"><div class="w-full lg:w-fit px-3 h-9 rounded-full bg-pk-gray-100 flex items-center justify-center gap-x-3 lg:gap-x-2 text-pk-content-secondary"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="14" height="14" viewBox="0 0 12 12" class="shrink-0"><path d="m6,.75l4.25,1.75v4.969c0,2.201-3.185,3.449-4.041,3.745-.138.048-.281.048-.419,0-.855-.296-4.041-1.544-4.041-3.745V2.5L6,.75s0,0,0,0Z" fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" stroke-width="1.5"></path></svg><p class="text-[13px] font-semibold text-pretty">Beware of external links.</p></div></div><div class="flex items-center justify-between"><div class="flex gap-4"><button type="button" class="group flex items-center gap-2 cursor-pointer bg-transparent border-none p-0 text-sm font-medium focus-visible:outline-none focus-visible:ring-0" aria-label="sort-comments-by" id="radix-_R_1ealgqt4ltcnpfmi9arjabaivb_" aria-haspopup="menu" aria-expanded="false" data-state="closed" data-slot="dropdown-menu-trigger"><span>Newest</span><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="12px" height="12px" viewBox="0 0 12 12" class="transition-transform duration-200 group-data-[state=open]:rotate-180"><polyline points="1.75 4.25 6 8.5 10.25 4.25" fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" stroke-width="1.5"></polyline></svg></button></div><div class="flex gap-2"><div class="hidden lg:block"><div class="w-full lg:w-fit px-3 h-9 rounded-full bg-pk-gray-100 flex items-center justify-center gap-x-3 lg:gap-x-2 text-pk-content-secondary"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="14" height="14" viewBox="0 0 12 12" class="shrink-0"><path d="m6,.75l4.25,1.75v4.969c0,2.201-3.185,3.449-4.041,3.745-.138.048-.281.048-.419,0-.855-.296-4.041-1.544-4.041-3.745V2.5L6,.75s0,0,0,0Z" fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" stroke-width="1.5"></path></svg><p class="text-[13px] font-semibold text-pretty">Beware of external links.</p></div></div></div></div><div class="flex mt-6 h-[75px]"><div class="flex w-full "><div class="relative overflow-hidden bg-pk-grouped/50 before:absolute before:inset-0 before:-translate-x-full before:-skew-x-12 before:animate-[skeletonShimmer_2s_infinite] before:bg-gradient-to-r before:from-transparent before:via-pk-grouped before:to-transparent rounded-full" style="width:40px;height:40px"></div><div class="flex flex-col ml-3.5 whitespace-normal w-[calc(100%-58px)]"><div class="flex items-center w-full justify-between relative gap-3"><div class="relative overflow-hidden rounded-md bg-pk-grouped/50 before:absolute before:inset-0 before:-translate-x-full before:-skew-x-12 before:animate-[skeletonShimmer_2s_infinite] before:bg-gradient-to-r before:from-transparent before:via-pk-grouped before:to-transparent w-[40%] h-[18px]"></div><div class="absolute top-0 right-0 flex"><button type="button" id="radix-_R_262qlgqt4ltcnpfmi9arjabaivb_" aria-haspopup="menu" aria-expanded="false" data-state="closed" data-slot="dropdown-menu-trigger" class="bg-transparent hover:bg-pk-hover-overlay-darker active:bg-pk-hover-overlay-darker flex items-center justify-center cursor-pointer size-7 min-w-7 rounded-sm outline-none transition-none"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="18px" height="18px" viewBox="0 0 18 18"><circle cx="9" cy="9" r=".5" fill="currentColor" stroke="currentColor" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" stroke-width="1.5" data-color="color-2"></circle><circle cx="3.25" cy="9" r=".5" stroke="currentColor" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" stroke-width="1.5" fill="currentColor"></circle><circle cx="14.75" cy="9" r=".5" stroke="currentColor" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" stroke-width="1.5" fill="currentColor"></circle></svg></button></div></div><div class="relative overflow-hidden rounded-md bg-pk-grouped/50 before:absolute before:inset-0 before:-translate-x-full before:-skew-x-12 before:animate-[skeletonShimmer_2s_infinite] before:bg-gradient-to-r before:from-transparent before:via-pk-grouped before:to-transparent w-[70%] h-[18px] my-2"></div><div class="relative overflow-hidden rounded-md bg-pk-grouped/50 before:absolute before:inset-0 before:-translate-x-full before:-skew-x-12 before:animate-[skeletonShimmer_2s_infinite] before:bg-gradient-to-r before:from-transparent before:via-pk-grouped before:to-transparent w-[30%] h-[18px]"></div></div></div></div><div class="flex mt-6 h-[75px]"><div class="flex w-full "><div class="relative overflow-hidden bg-pk-grouped/50 before:absolute before:inset-0 before:-translate-x-full before:-skew-x-12 before:animate-[skeletonShimmer_2s_infinite] before:bg-gradient-to-r before:from-transparent before:via-pk-grouped before:to-transparent rounded-full" style="width:40px;height:40px"></div><div class="flex flex-col ml-3.5 whitespace-normal w-[calc(100%-58px)]"><div class="flex items-center w-full justify-between relative gap-3"><div class="relative overflow-hidden rounded-md bg-pk-grouped/50 before:absolute before:inset-0 before:-translate-x-full before:-skew-x-12 before:animate-[skeletonShimmer_2s_infinite] before:bg-gradient-to-r before:from-transparent before:via-pk-grouped before:to-transparent w-[40%] h-[18px]"></div><div class="absolute top-0 right-0 flex"><button type="button" id="radix-_R_264qlgqt4ltcnpfmi9arjabaivb_" aria-haspopup="menu" aria-expanded="false" data-state="closed" data-slot="dropdown-menu-trigger" class="bg-transparent hover:bg-pk-hover-overlay-darker active:bg-pk-hover-overlay-darker flex items-center justify-center cursor-pointer size-7 min-w-7 rounded-sm outline-none transition-none"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="18px" height="18px" viewBox="0 0 18 18"><circle cx="9" cy="9" r=".5" fill="currentColor" stroke="currentColor" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" stroke-width="1.5" data-color="color-2"></circle><circle cx="3.25" cy="9" r=".5" stroke="currentColor" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" stroke-width="1.5" fill="currentColor"></circle><circle cx="14.75" cy="9" r=".5" stroke="currentColor" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" stroke-width="1.5" fill="currentColor"></circle></svg></button></div></div><div class="relative overflow-hidden rounded-md bg-pk-grouped/50 before:absolute before:inset-0 before:-translate-x-full before:-skew-x-12 before:animate-[skeletonShimmer_2s_infinite] before:bg-gradient-to-r before:from-transparent before:via-pk-grouped before:to-transparent w-[70%] h-[18px] my-2"></div><div class="relative overflow-hidden rounded-md bg-pk-grouped/50 before:absolute before:inset-0 before:-translate-x-full before:-skew-x-12 before:animate-[skeletonShimmer_2s_infinite] before:bg-gradient-to-r before:from-transparent before:via-pk-grouped before:to-transparent w-[30%] h-[18px]"></div></div></div></div><div class="flex mt-6 h-[75px]"><div class="flex w-full "><div class="relative overflow-hidden bg-pk-grouped/50 before:absolute before:inset-0 before:-translate-x-full before:-skew-x-12 before:animate-[skeletonShimmer_2s_infinite] before:bg-gradient-to-r before:from-transparent before:via-pk-grouped before:to-transparent rounded-full" style="width:40px;height:40px"></div><div class="flex flex-col ml-3.5 whitespace-normal w-[calc(100%-58px)]"><div class="flex items-center w-full justify-between relative gap-3"><div class="relative overflow-hidden rounded-md bg-pk-grouped/50 before:absolute before:inset-0 before:-translate-x-full before:-skew-x-12 before:animate-[skeletonShimmer_2s_infinite] before:bg-gradient-to-r before:from-transparent before:via-pk-grouped before:to-transparent w-[40%] h-[18px]"></div><div class="absolute top-0 right-0 flex"><button type="button" id="radix-_R_266qlgqt4ltcnpfmi9arjabaivb_" aria-haspopup="menu" aria-expanded="false" data-state="closed" data-slot="dropdown-menu-trigger" class="bg-transparent hover:bg-pk-hover-overlay-darker active:bg-pk-hover-overlay-darker flex items-center justify-center cursor-pointer size-7 min-w-7 rounded-sm outline-none transition-none"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="18px" height="18px" viewBox="0 0 18 18"><circle cx="9" cy="9" r=".5" fill="currentColor" stroke="currentColor" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" stroke-width="1.5" data-color="color-2"></circle><circle cx="3.25" cy="9" r=".5" stroke="currentColor" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" stroke-width="1.5" fill="currentColor"></circle><circle cx="14.75" cy="9" r=".5" stroke="currentColor" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" stroke-width="1.5" fill="currentColor"></circle></svg></button></div></div><div class="relative overflow-hidden rounded-md bg-pk-grouped/50 before:absolute before:inset-0 before:-translate-x-full before:-skew-x-12 before:animate-[skeletonShimmer_2s_infinite] before:bg-gradient-to-r before:from-transparent before:via-pk-grouped before:to-transparent w-[70%] h-[18px] my-2"></div><div class="relative overflow-hidden rounded-md bg-pk-grouped/50 before:absolute before:inset-0 before:-translate-x-full before:-skew-x-12 before:animate-[skeletonShimmer_2s_infinite] before:bg-gradient-to-r before:from-transparent before:via-pk-grouped before:to-transparent w-[30%] h-[18px]"></div></div></div></div><div class="flex mt-6 h-[75px]"><div class="flex w-full "><div class="relative overflow-hidden bg-pk-grouped/50 before:absolute before:inset-0 before:-translate-x-full before:-skew-x-12 before:animate-[skeletonShimmer_2s_infinite] before:bg-gradient-to-r before:from-transparent before:via-pk-grouped before:to-transparent rounded-full" style="width:40px;height:40px"></div><div class="flex flex-col ml-3.5 whitespace-normal w-[calc(100%-58px)]"><div class="flex items-center w-full justify-between relative gap-3"><div class="relative overflow-hidden rounded-md bg-pk-grouped/50 before:absolute before:inset-0 before:-translate-x-full before:-skew-x-12 before:animate-[skeletonShimmer_2s_infinite] before:bg-gradient-to-r before:from-transparent before:via-pk-grouped before:to-transparent w-[40%] h-[18px]"></div><div class="absolute top-0 right-0 flex"><button type="button" id="radix-_R_268qlgqt4ltcnpfmi9arjabaivb_" aria-haspopup="menu" aria-expanded="false" data-state="closed" data-slot="dropdown-menu-trigger" class="bg-transparent hover:bg-pk-hover-overlay-darker active:bg-pk-hover-overlay-darker flex items-center justify-center cursor-pointer size-7 min-w-7 rounded-sm outline-none transition-none"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="18px" height="18px" viewBox="0 0 18 18"><circle cx="9" cy="9" r=".5" fill="currentColor" stroke="currentColor" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" stroke-width="1.5" data-color="color-2"></circle><circle cx="3.25" cy="9" r=".5" stroke="currentColor" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" stroke-width="1.5" fill="currentColor"></circle><circle cx="14.75" cy="9" r=".5" stroke="currentColor" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" stroke-width="1.5" fill="currentColor"></circle></svg></button></div></div><div class="relative overflow-hidden rounded-md bg-pk-grouped/50 before:absolute before:inset-0 before:-translate-x-full before:-skew-x-12 before:animate-[skeletonShimmer_2s_infinite] before:bg-gradient-to-r before:from-transparent before:via-pk-grouped before:to-transparent w-[70%] h-[18px] my-2"></div><div class="relative overflow-hidden rounded-md bg-pk-grouped/50 before:absolute before:inset-0 before:-translate-x-full before:-skew-x-12 before:animate-[skeletonShimmer_2s_infinite] before:bg-gradient-to-r before:from-transparent before:via-pk-grouped before:to-transparent w-[30%] h-[18px]"></div></div></div></div><div class="flex mt-6 h-[75px]"><div class="flex w-full "><div class="relative overflow-hidden bg-pk-grouped/50 before:absolute before:inset-0 before:-translate-x-full before:-skew-x-12 before:animate-[skeletonShimmer_2s_infinite] before:bg-gradient-to-r before:from-transparent before:via-pk-grouped before:to-transparent rounded-full" style="width:40px;height:40px"></div><div class="flex flex-col ml-3.5 whitespace-normal w-[calc(100%-58px)]"><div class="flex items-center w-full justify-between relative gap-3"><div class="relative overflow-hidden rounded-md bg-pk-grouped/50 before:absolute before:inset-0 before:-translate-x-full before:-skew-x-12 before:animate-[skeletonShimmer_2s_infinite] before:bg-gradient-to-r before:from-transparent before:via-pk-grouped before:to-transparent w-[40%] h-[18px]"></div><div class="absolute top-0 right-0 flex"><button type="button" id="radix-_R_26aqlgqt4ltcnpfmi9arjabaivb_" aria-haspopup="menu" aria-expanded="false" data-state="closed" data-slot="dropdown-menu-trigger" class="bg-transparent hover:bg-pk-hover-overlay-darker active:bg-pk-hover-overlay-darker flex items-center justify-center cursor-pointer size-7 min-w-7 rounded-sm outline-none transition-none"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="18px" height="18px" viewBox="0 0 18 18"><circle cx="9" cy="9" r=".5" fill="currentColor" stroke="currentColor" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" stroke-width="1.5" data-color="color-2"></circle><circle cx="3.25" cy="9" r=".5" stroke="currentColor" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" stroke-width="1.5" fill="currentColor"></circle><circle cx="14.75" cy="9" r=".5" stroke="currentColor" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" stroke-width="1.5" fill="currentColor"></circle></svg></button></div></div><div class="relative overflow-hidden rounded-md bg-pk-grouped/50 before:absolute before:inset-0 before:-translate-x-full before:-skew-x-12 before:animate-[skeletonShimmer_2s_infinite] before:bg-gradient-to-r before:from-transparent before:via-pk-grouped before:to-transparent w-[70%] h-[18px] my-2"></div><div class="relative overflow-hidden rounded-md bg-pk-grouped/50 before:absolute before:inset-0 before:-translate-x-full before:-skew-x-12 before:animate-[skeletonShimmer_2s_infinite] before:bg-gradient-to-r before:from-transparent before:via-pk-grouped before:to-transparent w-[30%] h-[18px]"></div></div></div></div><div class="flex mt-6 h-[75px]"><div class="flex w-full "><div class="relative overflow-hidden bg-pk-grouped/50 before:absolute before:inset-0 before:-translate-x-full before:-skew-x-12 before:animate-[skeletonShimmer_2s_infinite] before:bg-gradient-to-r before:from-transparent before:via-pk-grouped before:to-transparent rounded-full" style="width:40px;height:40px"></div><div class="flex flex-col ml-3.5 whitespace-normal w-[calc(100%-58px)]"><div class="flex items-center w-full justify-between relative gap-3"><div class="relative overflow-hidden rounded-md bg-pk-grouped/50 before:absolute before:inset-0 before:-translate-x-full before:-skew-x-12 before:animate-[skeletonShimmer_2s_infinite] before:bg-gradient-to-r before:from-transparent before:via-pk-grouped before:to-transparent w-[40%] h-[18px]"></div><div class="absolute top-0 right-0 flex"><button type="button" id="radix-_R_26cqlgqt4ltcnpfmi9arjabaivb_" aria-haspopup="menu" aria-expanded="false" data-state="closed" data-slot="dropdown-menu-trigger" class="bg-transparent hover:bg-pk-hover-overlay-darker active:bg-pk-hover-overlay-darker flex items-center justify-center cursor-pointer size-7 min-w-7 rounded-sm outline-none transition-none"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="18px" height="18px" viewBox="0 0 18 18"><circle cx="9" cy="9" r=".5" fill="currentColor" stroke="currentColor" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" stroke-width="1.5" data-color="color-2"></circle><circle cx="3.25" cy="9" r=".5" stroke="currentColor" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" stroke-width="1.5" fill="currentColor"></circle><circle cx="14.75" cy="9" r=".5" stroke="currentColor" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" stroke-width="1.5" fill="currentColor"></circle></svg></button></div></div><div class="relative overflow-hidden rounded-md bg-pk-grouped/50 before:absolute before:inset-0 before:-translate-x-full before:-skew-x-12 before:animate-[skeletonShimmer_2s_infinite] before:bg-gradient-to-r before:from-transparent before:via-pk-grouped before:to-transparent w-[70%] h-[18px] my-2"></div><div class="relative overflow-hidden rounded-md bg-pk-grouped/50 before:absolute before:inset-0 before:-translate-x-full before:-skew-x-12 before:animate-[skeletonShimmer_2s_infinite] before:bg-gradient-to-r before:from-transparent before:via-pk-grouped before:to-transparent w-[30%] h-[18px]"></div></div></div></div><div class="flex mt-6 h-[75px]"><div class="flex w-full "><div class="relative overflow-hidden bg-pk-grouped/50 before:absolute before:inset-0 before:-translate-x-full before:-skew-x-12 before:animate-[skeletonShimmer_2s_infinite] before:bg-gradient-to-r before:from-transparent before:via-pk-grouped before:to-transparent rounded-full" style="width:40px;height:40px"></div><div class="flex flex-col ml-3.5 whitespace-normal w-[calc(100%-58px)]"><div class="flex items-center w-full justify-between relative gap-3"><div class="relative overflow-hidden rounded-md bg-pk-grouped/50 before:absolute before:inset-0 before:-translate-x-full before:-skew-x-12 before:animate-[skeletonShimmer_2s_infinite] before:bg-gradient-to-r before:from-transparent before:via-pk-grouped before:to-transparent w-[40%] h-[18px]"></div><div class="absolute top-0 right-0 flex"><button type="button" id="radix-_R_26eqlgqt4ltcnpfmi9arjabaivb_" aria-haspopup="menu" aria-expanded="false" data-state="closed" data-slot="dropdown-menu-trigger" class="bg-transparent hover:bg-pk-hover-overlay-darker active:bg-pk-hover-overlay-darker flex items-center justify-center cursor-pointer size-7 min-w-7 rounded-sm outline-none transition-none"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="18px" height="18px" viewBox="0 0 18 18"><circle cx="9" cy="9" r=".5" fill="currentColor" stroke="currentColor" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" stroke-width="1.5" data-color="color-2"></circle><circle cx="3.25" cy="9" r=".5" stroke="currentColor" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" stroke-width="1.5" fill="currentColor"></circle><circle cx="14.75" cy="9" r=".5" stroke="currentColor" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" stroke-width="1.5" fill="currentColor"></circle></svg></button></div></div><div class="relative overflow-hidden rounded-md bg-pk-grouped/50 before:absolute before:inset-0 before:-translate-x-full before:-skew-x-12 before:animate-[skeletonShimmer_2s_infinite] before:bg-gradient-to-r before:from-transparent before:via-pk-grouped before:to-transparent w-[70%] h-[18px] my-2"></div><div class="relative overflow-hidden rounded-md bg-pk-grouped/50 before:absolute before:inset-0 before:-translate-x-full before:-skew-x-12 before:animate-[skeletonShimmer_2s_infinite] before:bg-gradient-to-r before:from-transparent before:via-pk-grouped before:to-transparent w-[30%] h-[18px]"></div></div></div></div><div class="flex mt-6 h-[75px]"><div class="flex w-full "><div class="relative overflow-hidden bg-pk-grouped/50 before:absolute before:inset-0 before:-translate-x-full before:-skew-x-12 before:animate-[skeletonShimmer_2s_infinite] before:bg-gradient-to-r before:from-transparent before:via-pk-grouped before:to-transparent rounded-full" style="width:40px;height:40px"></div><div class="flex flex-col ml-3.5 whitespace-normal w-[calc(100%-58px)]"><div class="flex items-center w-full justify-between relative gap-3"><div class="relative overflow-hidden rounded-md bg-pk-grouped/50 before:absolute before:inset-0 before:-translate-x-full before:-skew-x-12 before:animate-[skeletonShimmer_2s_infinite] before:bg-gradient-to-r before:from-transparent before:via-pk-grouped before:to-transparent w-[40%] h-[18px]"></div><div class="absolute top-0 right-0 flex"><button type="button" id="radix-_R_26gqlgqt4ltcnpfmi9arjabaivb_" aria-haspopup="menu" aria-expanded="false" data-state="closed" data-slot="dropdown-menu-trigger" class="bg-transparent hover:bg-pk-hover-overlay-darker active:bg-pk-hover-overlay-darker flex items-center justify-center cursor-pointer size-7 min-w-7 rounded-sm outline-none transition-none"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="18px" height="18px" viewBox="0 0 18 18"><circle cx="9" cy="9" r=".5" fill="currentColor" stroke="currentColor" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" stroke-width="1.5" data-color="color-2"></circle><circle cx="3.25" cy="9" r=".5" stroke="currentColor" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" stroke-width="1.5" fill="currentColor"></circle><circle cx="14.75" cy="9" r=".5" stroke="currentColor" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" stroke-width="1.5" fill="currentColor"></circle></svg></button></div></div><div class="relative overflow-hidden rounded-md bg-pk-grouped/50 before:absolute before:inset-0 before:-translate-x-full before:-skew-x-12 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gap-3"><div class="relative overflow-hidden rounded-md bg-pk-grouped/50 before:absolute before:inset-0 before:-translate-x-full before:-skew-x-12 before:animate-[skeletonShimmer_2s_infinite] before:bg-gradient-to-r before:from-transparent before:via-pk-grouped before:to-transparent w-[40%] h-[18px]"></div><div class="absolute top-0 right-0 flex"><button type="button" id="radix-_R_26iqlgqt4ltcnpfmi9arjabaivb_" aria-haspopup="menu" aria-expanded="false" data-state="closed" data-slot="dropdown-menu-trigger" class="bg-transparent hover:bg-pk-hover-overlay-darker active:bg-pk-hover-overlay-darker flex items-center justify-center cursor-pointer size-7 min-w-7 rounded-sm outline-none transition-none"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="18px" height="18px" viewBox="0 0 18 18"><circle cx="9" cy="9" r=".5" fill="currentColor" stroke="currentColor" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" stroke-width="1.5" data-color="color-2"></circle><circle cx="3.25" cy="9" r=".5" stroke="currentColor" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" stroke-width="1.5" fill="currentColor"></circle><circle cx="14.75" cy="9" r=".5" stroke="currentColor" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" stroke-width="1.5" fill="currentColor"></circle></svg></button></div></div><div class="relative overflow-hidden rounded-md bg-pk-grouped/50 before:absolute before:inset-0 before:-translate-x-full before:-skew-x-12 before:animate-[skeletonShimmer_2s_infinite] before:bg-gradient-to-r before:from-transparent before:via-pk-grouped before:to-transparent w-[70%] h-[18px] my-2"></div><div class="relative overflow-hidden rounded-md bg-pk-grouped/50 before:absolute before:inset-0 before:-translate-x-full before:-skew-x-12 before:animate-[skeletonShimmer_2s_infinite] before:bg-gradient-to-r before:from-transparent before:via-pk-grouped before:to-transparent w-[30%] h-[18px]"></div></div></div></div><div class="flex mt-6 h-[75px]"><div class="flex w-full "><div class="relative overflow-hidden bg-pk-grouped/50 before:absolute before:inset-0 before:-translate-x-full before:-skew-x-12 before:animate-[skeletonShimmer_2s_infinite] before:bg-gradient-to-r before:from-transparent before:via-pk-grouped before:to-transparent rounded-full" style="width:40px;height:40px"></div><div class="flex flex-col ml-3.5 whitespace-normal w-[calc(100%-58px)]"><div class="flex items-center w-full justify-between relative gap-3"><div class="relative overflow-hidden rounded-md bg-pk-grouped/50 before:absolute before:inset-0 before:-translate-x-full before:-skew-x-12 before:animate-[skeletonShimmer_2s_infinite] before:bg-gradient-to-r before:from-transparent before:via-pk-grouped before:to-transparent w-[40%] h-[18px]"></div><div class="absolute top-0 right-0 flex"><button type="button" id="radix-_R_26kqlgqt4ltcnpfmi9arjabaivb_" aria-haspopup="menu" aria-expanded="false" data-state="closed" data-slot="dropdown-menu-trigger" class="bg-transparent hover:bg-pk-hover-overlay-darker active:bg-pk-hover-overlay-darker flex items-center justify-center cursor-pointer size-7 min-w-7 rounded-sm outline-none transition-none"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="18px" height="18px" viewBox="0 0 18 18"><circle cx="9" cy="9" r=".5" fill="currentColor" stroke="currentColor" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" stroke-width="1.5" data-color="color-2"></circle><circle cx="3.25" cy="9" r=".5" stroke="currentColor" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" stroke-width="1.5" fill="currentColor"></circle><circle cx="14.75" cy="9" r=".5" stroke="currentColor" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" stroke-width="1.5" fill="currentColor"></circle></svg></button></div></div><div class="relative overflow-hidden rounded-md bg-pk-grouped/50 before:absolute before:inset-0 before:-translate-x-full before:-skew-x-12 before:animate-[skeletonShimmer_2s_infinite] before:bg-gradient-to-r before:from-transparent before:via-pk-grouped before:to-transparent w-[70%] h-[18px] my-2"></div><div class="relative overflow-hidden rounded-md bg-pk-grouped/50 before:absolute before:inset-0 before:-translate-x-full before:-skew-x-12 before:animate-[skeletonShimmer_2s_infinite] before:bg-gradient-to-r before:from-transparent before:via-pk-grouped before:to-transparent w-[30%] h-[18px]"></div></div></div></div></section><section class="w-full pt-8"><script type="application/ld+json">{"@context":"https://schema.org","@type":"FAQPage","mainEntity":[{"@type":"Question","name":"What is the \"Fed Decision in September?\" prediction market?","acceptedAnswer":{"@type":"Answer","text":"\"Fed Decision in September?\" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 5 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is \"25 bps increase\" at 52%, followed by \"No change\" at 49%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 52¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 52% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution."}},{"@type":"Question","name":"How much trading activity has \"Fed Decision in September?\" generated on Polymarket?","acceptedAnswer":{"@type":"Answer","text":"As of today, \"Fed Decision in September?\" has generated $103.4 million in total trading volume since the market launched on May 13, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page."}},{"@type":"Question","name":"How do I trade on \"Fed Decision in September?\"?","acceptedAnswer":{"@type":"Answer","text":"To trade on \"Fed Decision in September?,\" browse the 5 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose \"Yes\" to trade in favor of it or \"No\" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click \"Trade.\" If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your \"Yes\" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss."}},{"@type":"Question","name":"What are the current odds for \"Fed Decision in September?\"?","acceptedAnswer":{"@type":"Answer","text":"The current frontrunner for \"Fed Decision in September?\" is \"25 bps increase\" at 52%, meaning the market assigns a 52% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is \"No change\" at 49%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges."}},{"@type":"Question","name":"How will \"Fed Decision in September?\" be resolved?","acceptedAnswer":{"@type":"Answer","text":"The resolution rules for \"Fed Decision in September?\" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the \"Rules\" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled."}},{"@type":"Question","name":"Can I follow \"Fed Decision in September?\" without placing a trade?","acceptedAnswer":{"@type":"Answer","text":"Yes. You don't need to trade to stay informed. This page serves as a live tracker for \"Fed Decision in September?.\" The outcome probabilities update in real-time as new trades come in. You can bookmark this page and check the comments section to see what other traders are saying. You can also use the time-range filters on the chart to see how the odds have shifted over time. It's a free, real-time window into what the market expects to happen."}},{"@type":"Question","name":"Why are Polymarket's odds for \"Fed Decision in September?\" considered reliable?","acceptedAnswer":{"@type":"Answer","text":"Polymarket odds are set by real traders putting real money behind their beliefs, which tends to surface accurate predictions. With $103.4 million traded on \"Fed Decision in September?,\" these prices aggregate the collective knowledge and conviction of thousands of participants — often outperforming polls, expert forecasts, and traditional surveys. Prediction markets like Polymarket have a strong track record of accuracy, especially as events approach their resolution date. For example, Polymarket has a one month accuracy score of 94%. For the latest stats on Polymarket's prediction accuracy, visit the accuracy page on Polymarket."}},{"@type":"Question","name":"How do I start trading on \"Fed Decision in September?\"?","acceptedAnswer":{"@type":"Answer","text":"To place your first trade on \"Fed Decision in September?,\" sign up for a free Polymarket account and fund it using crypto, a credit or debit card, or a bank transfer. Once your account is funded, return to this page, select the outcome you want to trade, enter your amount, and click \"Trade.\" If you're new to prediction markets, click the \"How it works\" link at the top of any Polymarket page for a quick step-by-step walkthrough of how trading works."}},{"@type":"Question","name":"What does a price of 52¢ for \"25 bps increase\" mean?","acceptedAnswer":{"@type":"Answer","text":"On Polymarket, the price of each outcome represents the market's implied probability. A price of 52¢ for \"25 bps increase\" in the \"Fed Decision in September?\" market means traders collectively believe there is roughly a 52% chance that \"25 bps increase\" will be the correct result. If you buy \"Yes\" shares at 52¢ and the outcome is correct, you receive $1.00 per share — a profit of 48¢ per share. If incorrect, those shares are worth $0."}},{"@type":"Question","name":"When does the \"Fed Decision in September?\" market close?","acceptedAnswer":{"@type":"Answer","text":"The \"Fed Decision in September?\" market is scheduled to resolve on or around Sep 15, 2026. This means trading will remain open and the odds will continue to shift as new information emerges until that date. The exact resolution timing depends on when the official result becomes available, as outlined in the \"Rules\" section on this page."}},{"@type":"Question","name":"What are traders saying about \"Fed Decision in September?\"?","acceptedAnswer":{"@type":"Answer","text":"The \"Fed Decision in September?\" market has an active community of 8,999 comments where traders share their analysis, debate outcomes, and discuss breaking developments. Scroll down to the comments section below to read what other participants think. You can also filter by \"Top Holders\" to see what the market's biggest traders are positioned on, or check the \"Activity\" tab for a real-time feed of trades."}},{"@type":"Question","name":"What is Polymarket?","acceptedAnswer":{"@type":"Answer","text":"Polymarket is the world's largest prediction market, where you can stay informed and profit from your knowledge of real-world events. Traders buy and sell shares on outcomes for topics ranging from politics and elections to crypto, finance, sports, tech, and culture, including markets like \"Fed Decision in September?.\" Prices reflect real-time, crowd-sourced probabilities backed by financial conviction, often providing faster and more accurate signals than polls, pundits, or traditional surveys."}}]}</script><h2 class="text-[16px] font-semibold text-pk-content-primary mb-2">Frequently Asked Questions</h2><div class="w-full" data-orientation="vertical"><div data-state="closed" data-orientation="vertical" class="border-b border-pk-border last:border-b-0"><h3 data-orientation="vertical" data-state="closed"><button type="button" aria-controls="radix-_R_8n5gqt4ltcnpfmi9arjabaivb_" aria-expanded="false" data-state="closed" data-orientation="vertical" id="radix-_R_n5gqt4ltcnpfmi9arjabaivb_" class="w-full flex items-center justify-between py-5 lg:py-6 text-[14px] text-pk-content-primary hover:text-pk-content-secondary transition-colors group cursor-pointer text-start" data-radix-collection-item="">What is the &quot;Fed Decision in September?&quot; prediction market?<svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="12px" height="12px" viewBox="0 0 12 12" class="shrink-0 ml-4 transform transition-transform duration-200 group-data-[state=open]:rotate-180"><polyline points="1.75 4.25 6 8.5 10.25 4.25" fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" stroke-width="1.5"></polyline></svg></button></h3><div data-state="closed" id="radix-_R_8n5gqt4ltcnpfmi9arjabaivb_" role="region" aria-labelledby="radix-_R_n5gqt4ltcnpfmi9arjabaivb_" data-orientation="vertical" class="overflow-hidden data-[state=open]:animate-accordionSlideDown data-[state=closed]:animate-accordionSlideUp data-[state=closed]:h-0 data-[state=closed]:opacity-0" style="--radix-accordion-content-height:var(--radix-collapsible-content-height);--radix-accordion-content-width:var(--radix-collapsible-content-width)"><div class="pb-5 lg:pb-6 text-[14px] text-pk-content-primary leading-relaxed">&quot;Fed Decision in September?&quot; is a prediction market on Polymarket with 5 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is &quot;25 bps increase&quot; at 52%, followed by &quot;No change&quot; at 49%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 52¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 52% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.</div></div></div><div data-state="closed" data-orientation="vertical" class="border-b border-pk-border last:border-b-0"><h3 data-orientation="vertical" data-state="closed"><button type="button" aria-controls="radix-_R_975gqt4ltcnpfmi9arjabaivb_" aria-expanded="false" data-state="closed" data-orientation="vertical" id="radix-_R_175gqt4ltcnpfmi9arjabaivb_" class="w-full flex items-center justify-between py-5 lg:py-6 text-[14px] text-pk-content-primary hover:text-pk-content-secondary transition-colors group cursor-pointer text-start" data-radix-collection-item="">How much trading activity has &quot;Fed Decision in September?&quot; generated on Polymarket?<svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="12px" height="12px" viewBox="0 0 12 12" class="shrink-0 ml-4 transform transition-transform duration-200 group-data-[state=open]:rotate-180"><polyline points="1.75 4.25 6 8.5 10.25 4.25" fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" stroke-width="1.5"></polyline></svg></button></h3><div data-state="closed" id="radix-_R_975gqt4ltcnpfmi9arjabaivb_" role="region" aria-labelledby="radix-_R_175gqt4ltcnpfmi9arjabaivb_" data-orientation="vertical" class="overflow-hidden data-[state=open]:animate-accordionSlideDown data-[state=closed]:animate-accordionSlideUp data-[state=closed]:h-0 data-[state=closed]:opacity-0" style="--radix-accordion-content-height:var(--radix-collapsible-content-height);--radix-accordion-content-width:var(--radix-collapsible-content-width)"><div class="pb-5 lg:pb-6 text-[14px] text-pk-content-primary leading-relaxed">As of today, &quot;Fed Decision in September?&quot; has generated $103.4 million in total trading volume since the market launched on May 13, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.</div></div></div><div data-state="closed" data-orientation="vertical" class="border-b border-pk-border last:border-b-0"><h3 data-orientation="vertical" data-state="closed"><button type="button" aria-controls="radix-_R_9n5gqt4ltcnpfmi9arjabaivb_" aria-expanded="false" data-state="closed" data-orientation="vertical" id="radix-_R_1n5gqt4ltcnpfmi9arjabaivb_" class="w-full flex items-center justify-between py-5 lg:py-6 text-[14px] text-pk-content-primary hover:text-pk-content-secondary transition-colors group cursor-pointer text-start" data-radix-collection-item="">How do I trade on &quot;Fed Decision in September?&quot;?<svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="12px" height="12px" viewBox="0 0 12 12" class="shrink-0 ml-4 transform transition-transform duration-200 group-data-[state=open]:rotate-180"><polyline points="1.75 4.25 6 8.5 10.25 4.25" fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" stroke-width="1.5"></polyline></svg></button></h3><div data-state="closed" id="radix-_R_9n5gqt4ltcnpfmi9arjabaivb_" role="region" aria-labelledby="radix-_R_1n5gqt4ltcnpfmi9arjabaivb_" data-orientation="vertical" class="overflow-hidden data-[state=open]:animate-accordionSlideDown data-[state=closed]:animate-accordionSlideUp data-[state=closed]:h-0 data-[state=closed]:opacity-0" style="--radix-accordion-content-height:var(--radix-collapsible-content-height);--radix-accordion-content-width:var(--radix-collapsible-content-width)"><div class="pb-5 lg:pb-6 text-[14px] text-pk-content-primary leading-relaxed">To trade on &quot;Fed Decision in September?,&quot; browse the 5 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market&#x27;s implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose &quot;Yes&quot; to trade in favor of it or &quot;No&quot; to trade against it, enter your amount, and click &quot;Trade.&quot; If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your &quot;Yes&quot; shares pay out $1 each. If it&#x27;s incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.</div></div></div><div data-state="closed" data-orientation="vertical" class="border-b border-pk-border last:border-b-0"><h3 data-orientation="vertical" data-state="closed"><button type="button" aria-controls="radix-_R_a75gqt4ltcnpfmi9arjabaivb_" aria-expanded="false" data-state="closed" data-orientation="vertical" id="radix-_R_275gqt4ltcnpfmi9arjabaivb_" class="w-full flex items-center justify-between py-5 lg:py-6 text-[14px] text-pk-content-primary hover:text-pk-content-secondary transition-colors group cursor-pointer text-start" data-radix-collection-item="">What are the current odds for &quot;Fed Decision in September?&quot;?<svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="12px" height="12px" viewBox="0 0 12 12" class="shrink-0 ml-4 transform transition-transform duration-200 group-data-[state=open]:rotate-180"><polyline points="1.75 4.25 6 8.5 10.25 4.25" fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" stroke-width="1.5"></polyline></svg></button></h3><div data-state="closed" id="radix-_R_a75gqt4ltcnpfmi9arjabaivb_" role="region" aria-labelledby="radix-_R_275gqt4ltcnpfmi9arjabaivb_" data-orientation="vertical" class="overflow-hidden data-[state=open]:animate-accordionSlideDown data-[state=closed]:animate-accordionSlideUp data-[state=closed]:h-0 data-[state=closed]:opacity-0" style="--radix-accordion-content-height:var(--radix-collapsible-content-height);--radix-accordion-content-width:var(--radix-collapsible-content-width)"><div class="pb-5 lg:pb-6 text-[14px] text-pk-content-primary leading-relaxed">The current frontrunner for &quot;Fed Decision in September?&quot; is &quot;25 bps increase&quot; at 52%, meaning the market assigns a 52% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is &quot;No change&quot; at 49%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what&#x27;s most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.</div></div></div><div data-state="closed" data-orientation="vertical" class="border-b border-pk-border last:border-b-0"><h3 data-orientation="vertical" data-state="closed"><button type="button" aria-controls="radix-_R_an5gqt4ltcnpfmi9arjabaivb_" aria-expanded="false" data-state="closed" data-orientation="vertical" id="radix-_R_2n5gqt4ltcnpfmi9arjabaivb_" class="w-full flex items-center justify-between py-5 lg:py-6 text-[14px] text-pk-content-primary hover:text-pk-content-secondary transition-colors group cursor-pointer text-start" data-radix-collection-item="">How will &quot;Fed Decision in September?&quot; be resolved?<svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="12px" height="12px" viewBox="0 0 12 12" class="shrink-0 ml-4 transform transition-transform duration-200 group-data-[state=open]:rotate-180"><polyline points="1.75 4.25 6 8.5 10.25 4.25" fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" stroke-width="1.5"></polyline></svg></button></h3><div data-state="closed" id="radix-_R_an5gqt4ltcnpfmi9arjabaivb_" role="region" aria-labelledby="radix-_R_2n5gqt4ltcnpfmi9arjabaivb_" data-orientation="vertical" class="overflow-hidden data-[state=open]:animate-accordionSlideDown data-[state=closed]:animate-accordionSlideUp data-[state=closed]:h-0 data-[state=closed]:opacity-0" style="--radix-accordion-content-height:var(--radix-collapsible-content-height);--radix-accordion-content-width:var(--radix-collapsible-content-width)"><div class="pb-5 lg:pb-6 text-[14px] text-pk-content-primary leading-relaxed">The resolution rules for &quot;Fed Decision in September?&quot; define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the &quot;Rules&quot; section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.</div></div></div><div data-state="closed" data-orientation="vertical" class="border-b border-pk-border last:border-b-0" style="display:none"><h3 data-orientation="vertical" data-state="closed"><button type="button" aria-controls="radix-_R_b75gqt4ltcnpfmi9arjabaivb_" aria-expanded="false" data-state="closed" data-orientation="vertical" id="radix-_R_375gqt4ltcnpfmi9arjabaivb_" class="w-full flex items-center justify-between py-5 lg:py-6 text-[14px] text-pk-content-primary hover:text-pk-content-secondary transition-colors group cursor-pointer text-start" data-radix-collection-item="">Can I follow &quot;Fed Decision in September?&quot; without placing a trade?<svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="12px" height="12px" viewBox="0 0 12 12" class="shrink-0 ml-4 transform transition-transform duration-200 group-data-[state=open]:rotate-180"><polyline points="1.75 4.25 6 8.5 10.25 4.25" fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" stroke-width="1.5"></polyline></svg></button></h3><div data-state="closed" id="radix-_R_b75gqt4ltcnpfmi9arjabaivb_" role="region" aria-labelledby="radix-_R_375gqt4ltcnpfmi9arjabaivb_" data-orientation="vertical" class="overflow-hidden data-[state=open]:animate-accordionSlideDown data-[state=closed]:animate-accordionSlideUp data-[state=closed]:h-0 data-[state=closed]:opacity-0" style="--radix-accordion-content-height:var(--radix-collapsible-content-height);--radix-accordion-content-width:var(--radix-collapsible-content-width)"><div class="pb-5 lg:pb-6 text-[14px] text-pk-content-primary leading-relaxed">Yes. You don&#x27;t need to trade to stay informed. This page serves as a live tracker for &quot;Fed Decision in September?.&quot; The outcome probabilities update in real-time as new trades come in. You can bookmark this page and check the comments section to see what other traders are saying. You can also use the time-range filters on the chart to see how the odds have shifted over time. It&#x27;s a free, real-time window into what the market expects to happen.</div></div></div><div data-state="closed" data-orientation="vertical" class="border-b border-pk-border last:border-b-0" style="display:none"><h3 data-orientation="vertical" data-state="closed"><button type="button" aria-controls="radix-_R_bn5gqt4ltcnpfmi9arjabaivb_" aria-expanded="false" data-state="closed" data-orientation="vertical" id="radix-_R_3n5gqt4ltcnpfmi9arjabaivb_" class="w-full flex items-center justify-between py-5 lg:py-6 text-[14px] text-pk-content-primary hover:text-pk-content-secondary transition-colors group cursor-pointer text-start" data-radix-collection-item="">Why are Polymarket&#x27;s odds for &quot;Fed Decision in September?&quot; considered reliable?<svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="12px" height="12px" viewBox="0 0 12 12" class="shrink-0 ml-4 transform transition-transform duration-200 group-data-[state=open]:rotate-180"><polyline points="1.75 4.25 6 8.5 10.25 4.25" fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" stroke-width="1.5"></polyline></svg></button></h3><div data-state="closed" id="radix-_R_bn5gqt4ltcnpfmi9arjabaivb_" role="region" aria-labelledby="radix-_R_3n5gqt4ltcnpfmi9arjabaivb_" data-orientation="vertical" class="overflow-hidden data-[state=open]:animate-accordionSlideDown data-[state=closed]:animate-accordionSlideUp data-[state=closed]:h-0 data-[state=closed]:opacity-0" style="--radix-accordion-content-height:var(--radix-collapsible-content-height);--radix-accordion-content-width:var(--radix-collapsible-content-width)"><div class="pb-5 lg:pb-6 text-[14px] text-pk-content-primary leading-relaxed">Polymarket odds are set by real traders putting real money behind their beliefs, which tends to surface accurate predictions. With $103.4 million traded on “Fed Decision in September?,” these prices aggregate the collective knowledge and conviction of thousands of participants — often outperforming polls, expert forecasts, and traditional surveys. Prediction markets like Polymarket have a strong track record of accuracy, especially as events approach their resolution date. For example, Polymarket has a one month accuracy score of 94%. For the latest stats on Polymarket’s prediction accuracy, visit the <a class="underline hover:text-pk-content-secondary" href="/accuracy">accuracy page</a> on Polymarket.</div></div></div><div data-state="closed" data-orientation="vertical" class="border-b border-pk-border last:border-b-0" style="display:none"><h3 data-orientation="vertical" data-state="closed"><button type="button" aria-controls="radix-_R_c75gqt4ltcnpfmi9arjabaivb_" aria-expanded="false" data-state="closed" data-orientation="vertical" id="radix-_R_475gqt4ltcnpfmi9arjabaivb_" class="w-full flex items-center justify-between py-5 lg:py-6 text-[14px] text-pk-content-primary hover:text-pk-content-secondary transition-colors group cursor-pointer text-start" data-radix-collection-item="">How do I start trading on &quot;Fed Decision in September?&quot;?<svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="12px" height="12px" viewBox="0 0 12 12" class="shrink-0 ml-4 transform transition-transform duration-200 group-data-[state=open]:rotate-180"><polyline points="1.75 4.25 6 8.5 10.25 4.25" fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" stroke-width="1.5"></polyline></svg></button></h3><div data-state="closed" id="radix-_R_c75gqt4ltcnpfmi9arjabaivb_" role="region" aria-labelledby="radix-_R_475gqt4ltcnpfmi9arjabaivb_" data-orientation="vertical" class="overflow-hidden data-[state=open]:animate-accordionSlideDown data-[state=closed]:animate-accordionSlideUp data-[state=closed]:h-0 data-[state=closed]:opacity-0" style="--radix-accordion-content-height:var(--radix-collapsible-content-height);--radix-accordion-content-width:var(--radix-collapsible-content-width)"><div class="pb-5 lg:pb-6 text-[14px] text-pk-content-primary leading-relaxed">To place your first trade on &quot;Fed Decision in September?,&quot; sign up for a free Polymarket account and fund it using crypto, a credit or debit card, or a bank transfer. Once your account is funded, return to this page, select the outcome you want to trade, enter your amount, and click &quot;Trade.&quot; If you&#x27;re new to prediction markets, click the &quot;How it works&quot; link at the top of any Polymarket page for a quick step-by-step walkthrough of how trading works.</div></div></div><div data-state="closed" data-orientation="vertical" class="border-b border-pk-border last:border-b-0" style="display:none"><h3 data-orientation="vertical" data-state="closed"><button type="button" aria-controls="radix-_R_cn5gqt4ltcnpfmi9arjabaivb_" aria-expanded="false" data-state="closed" data-orientation="vertical" id="radix-_R_4n5gqt4ltcnpfmi9arjabaivb_" class="w-full flex items-center justify-between py-5 lg:py-6 text-[14px] text-pk-content-primary hover:text-pk-content-secondary transition-colors group cursor-pointer text-start" data-radix-collection-item="">What does a price of 52¢ for &quot;25 bps increase&quot; mean?<svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="12px" height="12px" viewBox="0 0 12 12" class="shrink-0 ml-4 transform transition-transform duration-200 group-data-[state=open]:rotate-180"><polyline points="1.75 4.25 6 8.5 10.25 4.25" fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" stroke-width="1.5"></polyline></svg></button></h3><div data-state="closed" id="radix-_R_cn5gqt4ltcnpfmi9arjabaivb_" role="region" aria-labelledby="radix-_R_4n5gqt4ltcnpfmi9arjabaivb_" data-orientation="vertical" class="overflow-hidden data-[state=open]:animate-accordionSlideDown data-[state=closed]:animate-accordionSlideUp data-[state=closed]:h-0 data-[state=closed]:opacity-0" style="--radix-accordion-content-height:var(--radix-collapsible-content-height);--radix-accordion-content-width:var(--radix-collapsible-content-width)"><div class="pb-5 lg:pb-6 text-[14px] text-pk-content-primary leading-relaxed">On Polymarket, the price of each outcome represents the market&#x27;s implied probability. A price of 52¢ for &quot;25 bps increase&quot; in the &quot;Fed Decision in September?&quot; market means traders collectively believe there is roughly a 52% chance that &quot;25 bps increase&quot; will be the correct result. If you buy &quot;Yes&quot; shares at 52¢ and the outcome is correct, you receive $1.00 per share — a profit of 48¢ per share. If incorrect, those shares are worth $0.</div></div></div><div data-state="closed" data-orientation="vertical" class="border-b border-pk-border last:border-b-0" style="display:none"><h3 data-orientation="vertical" data-state="closed"><button type="button" aria-controls="radix-_R_d75gqt4ltcnpfmi9arjabaivb_" aria-expanded="false" data-state="closed" data-orientation="vertical" id="radix-_R_575gqt4ltcnpfmi9arjabaivb_" class="w-full flex items-center justify-between py-5 lg:py-6 text-[14px] text-pk-content-primary hover:text-pk-content-secondary transition-colors group cursor-pointer text-start" data-radix-collection-item="">When does the &quot;Fed Decision in September?&quot; market close?<svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="12px" height="12px" viewBox="0 0 12 12" class="shrink-0 ml-4 transform transition-transform duration-200 group-data-[state=open]:rotate-180"><polyline points="1.75 4.25 6 8.5 10.25 4.25" fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" stroke-width="1.5"></polyline></svg></button></h3><div data-state="closed" id="radix-_R_d75gqt4ltcnpfmi9arjabaivb_" role="region" aria-labelledby="radix-_R_575gqt4ltcnpfmi9arjabaivb_" data-orientation="vertical" class="overflow-hidden data-[state=open]:animate-accordionSlideDown data-[state=closed]:animate-accordionSlideUp data-[state=closed]:h-0 data-[state=closed]:opacity-0" style="--radix-accordion-content-height:var(--radix-collapsible-content-height);--radix-accordion-content-width:var(--radix-collapsible-content-width)"><div class="pb-5 lg:pb-6 text-[14px] text-pk-content-primary leading-relaxed">The &quot;Fed Decision in September?&quot; market is scheduled to resolve on or around Sep 15, 2026. This means trading will remain open and the odds will continue to shift as new information emerges until that date. The exact resolution timing depends on when the official result becomes available, as outlined in the &quot;Rules&quot; section on this page.</div></div></div><div data-state="closed" data-orientation="vertical" class="border-b border-pk-border last:border-b-0" style="display:none"><h3 data-orientation="vertical" data-state="closed"><button type="button" aria-controls="radix-_R_dn5gqt4ltcnpfmi9arjabaivb_" aria-expanded="false" data-state="closed" data-orientation="vertical" id="radix-_R_5n5gqt4ltcnpfmi9arjabaivb_" class="w-full flex items-center justify-between py-5 lg:py-6 text-[14px] text-pk-content-primary hover:text-pk-content-secondary transition-colors group cursor-pointer text-start" data-radix-collection-item="">What are traders saying about &quot;Fed Decision in September?&quot;?<svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="12px" height="12px" viewBox="0 0 12 12" class="shrink-0 ml-4 transform transition-transform duration-200 group-data-[state=open]:rotate-180"><polyline points="1.75 4.25 6 8.5 10.25 4.25" fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" stroke-width="1.5"></polyline></svg></button></h3><div data-state="closed" id="radix-_R_dn5gqt4ltcnpfmi9arjabaivb_" role="region" aria-labelledby="radix-_R_5n5gqt4ltcnpfmi9arjabaivb_" data-orientation="vertical" class="overflow-hidden data-[state=open]:animate-accordionSlideDown data-[state=closed]:animate-accordionSlideUp data-[state=closed]:h-0 data-[state=closed]:opacity-0" style="--radix-accordion-content-height:var(--radix-collapsible-content-height);--radix-accordion-content-width:var(--radix-collapsible-content-width)"><div class="pb-5 lg:pb-6 text-[14px] text-pk-content-primary leading-relaxed">The &quot;Fed Decision in September?&quot; market has an active community of 8,999 comments where traders share their analysis, debate outcomes, and discuss breaking developments. Scroll down to the comments section below to read what other participants think. You can also filter by &quot;Top Holders&quot; to see what the market&#x27;s biggest traders are positioned on, or check the &quot;Activity&quot; tab for a real-time feed of trades.</div></div></div><div data-state="closed" data-orientation="vertical" class="border-b border-pk-border last:border-b-0" style="display:none"><h3 data-orientation="vertical" data-state="closed"><button type="button" aria-controls="radix-_R_e75gqt4ltcnpfmi9arjabaivb_" aria-expanded="false" data-state="closed" data-orientation="vertical" id="radix-_R_675gqt4ltcnpfmi9arjabaivb_" class="w-full flex items-center justify-between py-5 lg:py-6 text-[14px] text-pk-content-primary hover:text-pk-content-secondary transition-colors group cursor-pointer text-start" data-radix-collection-item="">What is Polymarket?<svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="12px" height="12px" viewBox="0 0 12 12" class="shrink-0 ml-4 transform transition-transform duration-200 group-data-[state=open]:rotate-180"><polyline points="1.75 4.25 6 8.5 10.25 4.25" fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" stroke-width="1.5"></polyline></svg></button></h3><div data-state="closed" id="radix-_R_e75gqt4ltcnpfmi9arjabaivb_" role="region" aria-labelledby="radix-_R_675gqt4ltcnpfmi9arjabaivb_" data-orientation="vertical" class="overflow-hidden data-[state=open]:animate-accordionSlideDown data-[state=closed]:animate-accordionSlideUp data-[state=closed]:h-0 data-[state=closed]:opacity-0" style="--radix-accordion-content-height:var(--radix-collapsible-content-height);--radix-accordion-content-width:var(--radix-collapsible-content-width)"><div class="pb-5 lg:pb-6 text-[14px] text-pk-content-primary leading-relaxed">Polymarket is the world&#x27;s largest prediction market, where you can stay informed and profit from your knowledge of real-world events. Traders buy and sell shares on outcomes for topics ranging from politics and elections to crypto, finance, sports, tech, and culture, including markets like &quot;Fed Decision in September?.&quot; Prices reflect real-time, crowd-sourced probabilities backed by financial conviction, often providing faster and more accurate signals than polls, pundits, or traditional surveys.</div></div></div></div><button type="button" class="flex items-center gap-2 mt-4 text-[14px] text-pk-content-secondary hover:text-pk-content-primary transition-colors cursor-pointer"><span>View more</span><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="12px" height="12px" viewBox="0 0 12 12" class="transform transition-transform duration-200 "><polyline points="1.75 4.25 6 8.5 10.25 4.25" fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" stroke-width="1.5"></polyline></svg></button></section></div></div></div></div></div></div><div class="fresnel-container fresnel-greaterThanOrEqual-lg fresnel-_R_1qt4ltcnpfmi9arjabaivb_ contents"></div></div><div class="fresnel-container fresnel-greaterThanOrEqual-lg fresnel-_R_4t4ltcnpfmi9arjabaivb_ contents"></div><!--$--><!--/$--><!--/&--></div></main><div class="w-[372px] not-lg:hidden"><div class="sticky top-[var(--navbar-height)] flex flex-col gap-3"><div></div></div></div></div></div><div><footer class="w-full bg-pk-surface pb-20 lg:pb-0"><div class="w-full max-w-[var(--page-max-width,1350px)] mx-auto px-4 lg:px-6 py-12 lg:py-16"><div class="flex flex-col gap-10"><div class="flex flex-col gap-2 items-start"><a class="block" href="/"><img alt="Polymarket" loading="lazy" width="180" height="33" decoding="async" data-nimg="1" class="dark:invert" style="color:transparent" srcSet="/_next/image?url=%2Fimages%2Fbrand%2Flogo-black.png&amp;w=256&amp;q=75&amp;dpl=dpl_AeiMdjVndFXTz9penFPxaSX9y224 1x, /_next/image?url=%2Fimages%2Fbrand%2Flogo-black.png&amp;w=600&amp;q=75&amp;dpl=dpl_AeiMdjVndFXTz9penFPxaSX9y224 2x" 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Use of measures to circumvent or attempt to circumvent these restrictions is prohibited.\",\"termsOfUse\":\"Terms of Use\",\"blockedRegions\":\"Blocked regions:\",\"gotIt\":\"Got it\"},\"nonUsIp\":{\"title\":\"Trade on Polymarket\",\"descriptionBefore\":\"By trading, you agree to the\",\"descriptionAfter\":\"and attest that you are not (i) a U.S. person; (ii) located in the United States, France or other restricted jurisdiction; and (iii) using a VPN or other measures to circumvent or attempt to circumvent restrictions. Polymarket reserves the right to put your wallet in close-only mode if you do not comply with these Terms.\",\"accept\":\"Accept\"},\"tradingRestricted\":{\"title\":\"Trading Halted\",\"descriptionBefore\":\"Your account has been placed into close only mode due to a potential violation of our Terms of Service. You may close out of your existing positions but not enter into new ones. 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You're all set.\",\"startTrading\":\"Start Trading\",\"loading\":\"Loading...\"}},\"backToTop\":\"Back to top\",\"usAppNudge\":{\"heading\":\"Download the US app to trade\",\"subheading\":\"Use code {couponCode} to get a ${amount} bonus\",\"downloadApp\":\"Download Polymarket App\",\"appImageAlt\":\"Polymarket US app\",\"close\":\"Close\",\"scanToDownload\":\"Scan to download\",\"appStoreBadgeAlt\":\"Download on the App Store\",\"googlePlayBadgeAlt\":\"Get it on Google Play\",\"banner\":{\"title\":\"Download the US app and get ${amount} to trade\",\"subtitle\":\"Every match \u0026 market · Cash out instantly · CFTC-regulated\",\"cta\":\"Claim ${amount}\"},\"viewOnlyCard\":{\"heading\":\"Download the US app and get ${amount} to trade\",\"continue\":\"Continue in view only mode\",\"useCode\":\"Use code \u003ccoupon\u003e{code}\u003c/coupon\u003e for ${amount}\"}},\"usGeoblock\":{\"cta\":\"Go to polymarket.us\",\"help\":\"Help\",\"banner\":{\"message\":\"To trade in the US, go to \u003cusLink\u003epolymarket.us\u003c/usLink\u003e\",\"dismiss\":\"Dismiss\"},\"modal\":{\"heading\":\"It looks like you’re in the US\",\"body\":\"Trading is blocked in the United States on polymarket.com. Switch to \u003cusLink\u003epolymarket.us\u003c/usLink\u003e to trade prediction markets.\",\"close\":\"Close\"},\"helpModal\":{\"tradeHeading\":\"Why am I unable to trade?\",\"cta\":\"Bring me to polymarket.us\",\"accountHeading\":\"I already have a polymarket.com account\",\"accountBody\":\"If you have an account you want to access for social or notifications, you can log in \u003cloginLink\u003ehere\u003c/loginLink\u003e.\",\"support\":\"Need more help? \u003csupportLink\u003eContact support\u003c/supportLink\u003e\"}},\"seo\":\"$25:props:messages:seo\",\"trading\":{\"buy\":\"Buy\",\"sell\":\"Sell\",\"yes\":\"Yes\",\"no\":\"No\",\"market\":\"Market\",\"limit\":\"Limit\",\"trade\":\"Trade\",\"merge\":\"Merge\",\"split\":\"Split\",\"buying\":\"Buying\",\"selling\":\"Selling\",\"bought\":\"Bought\",\"sold\":\"Sold\",\"merging\":\"Merging\",\"merged\":\"Merged\",\"splitting\":\"Splitting\",\"splitPast\":\"Split\",\"buyShares\":\"Buy shares\",\"sellShares\":\"Sell shares\",\"placeBuyOrder\":\"Place buy order\",\"placeSellOrder\":\"Place sell order\",\"placingBuyOrder\":\"Placing buy order\",\"placingSellOrder\":\"Placing sell order\",\"placedBuyOrder\":\"Placed buy order\",\"placedSellOrder\":\"Placed sell order\",\"cashOut\":\"Cash out\",\"cashingOut\":\"Cashing out\",\"cashedOut\":\"Cashed out\",\"cashing\":\"Cashing\",\"cashed\":\"Cashed\",\"redeem\":\"Redeem\",\"redeeming\":\"Redeeming\",\"redeemed\":\"Redeemed\",\"editOrder\":\"Edit order\",\"unavailable\":\"Unavailable\",\"oddsFormat\":{\"label\":\"Odds format\",\"description\":\"Choose how odds are displayed.\",\"options\":{\"price\":\"Price\",\"american\":\"American\",\"decimal\":\"Decimal\",\"fractional\":\"Fractional\",\"percentage\":\"Percentage\",\"indonesian\":\"Indonesian\",\"hongKong\":\"Hong Kong\",\"malaysian\":\"Malaysian\"}},\"redeemNPositions\":\"Redeem {count} positions\",\"deposit\":\"Deposit\",\"withdraw\":\"Withdraw\",\"polymarketBalance\":\"Polymarket Balance\",\"shares\":\"Shares\",\"share\":\"share\",\"amount\":\"Amount\",\"mustSpecifyAmount\":\"Must specify amount\",\"max\":\"Max\",\"claimed\":\"Redeemed\",\"lost\":\"Lost\",\"referralReward\":\"Referral reward\",\"depositedFunds\":\"Deposited funds\",\"withdrewFunds\":\"Withdrew funds\",\"positionClosed\":\"Position closed\",\"positionLost\":\"Position lost\",\"makerRebateCredited\":\"Maker rebate credited\",\"takerRebateCredited\":\"Taker rebate credited\",\"view\":\"View\",\"portfolioActivity\":{\"buy\":\"Buy\",\"sell\":\"Sell\",\"claim\":\"Redeem\",\"loss\":\"Loss\",\"merge\":\"Merge\",\"split\":\"Split\",\"deposit\":\"Deposit\",\"withdraw\":\"Withdraw\",\"reward\":\"Reward\",\"referral\":\"Referral\",\"yield\":\"Yield\",\"rebate\":\"Rebate\",\"migrate\":\"Migrate\",\"depositLabel\":\"Deposit\",\"withdrawalLabel\":\"Withdrawal\",\"liquidityReward\":\"Liquidity reward\",\"referralReward\":\"Referral reward\",\"holdingsYield\":\"Holdings yield (3.25% APR)\",\"tradingFeeRebate\":\"Maker rebate\",\"takerRebate\":\"Taker rebate\"},\"positions\":\"Positions\",\"allPositions\":\"All Positions\",\"profit\":\"Profit\",\"change\":\"Change\",\"multiplier\":\"Multiplier\",\"outcome\":\"Outcome\",\"qty\":\"Qty\",\"avg\":\"Avg\",\"value\":\"Value\",\"return\":\"Return\",\"current\":\"Current\",\"cost\":\"Cost\",\"type\":\"Type\",\"initialCost\":\"Initial cost\",\"payout\":\"Payout\",\"termsOfService\":{\"byTradingYouAgree\":\"By trading, you agree to the\",\"tooltipText\":\"By trading, you agree to the Terms of Use, including that you are not (i) a U.S. person and (ii) located in the United States, France or other restricted territory.\"},\"geoRestrictions\":{\"tradingUnavailableInRegion\":\"Trading is not available in your region.\",\"depositingUnavailableInRegion\":\"Depositing is not available in your region.\",\"withdrawalsUnavailableInRegion\":\"Withdrawals are not available in your region.\",\"availableRegions\":\"Available regions\",\"restrictedRegion\":\"Restricted region\"},\"errors\":{\"notEnoughFunds\":\"Not enough funds\",\"notEnoughShares\":\"Not enough shares\",\"minimumShares\":\"Minimum {count} shares for limit orders\",\"highPriceFluctuation\":\"High price fluctuation due to lower supply. 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Edit and try again.\",\"connection\":\"Connection problem, please try again\",\"updating\":\"Quote unavailable. Getting a new price…\",\"priceMoved\":\"This price is no longer available. 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Continue to sign in for live pricing.\"}},\"cancel\":{\"title\":\"Cancel combo\",\"description\":\"This cancels your in-progress Combo and {count, plural, one {clears your selection} other {clears all # selections}}.\",\"goBack\":\"Go back\",\"confirm\":\"Cancel combo\"},\"rail\":{\"selectOneMore\":\"Select 1 more pick\",\"clearAll\":\"Clear all\",\"buyCombo\":\"Buy combo\",\"orderPlaced\":\"Order placed\",\"maxPicks\":\"Max of {count} picks\",\"editPicks\":\"Edit picks \u0026 try again\",\"conflict\":\"Conflict\",\"new\":\"New\",\"conflictCopy\":\"Continuing will remove {count, plural, one {# market} other {# markets}} and replace them with “{pick}”\",\"cancel\":\"Cancel\",\"replacePicks\":\"Replace {count, plural, one {# pick} other {# picks}}\",\"regulationTime\":\"Reg. Time\",\"toAdvance\":\"To advance\",\"totalCorners\":\"Total corners\",\"firstFiveInnings\":\"1st 5 Innings\",\"odd\":\"Odd\",\"even\":\"Even\"},\"pickCombo\":\"{count} pick combo\",\"comboPeople\":\"{count, plural, one {# person} other {# people}}\",\"comboVolume\":\"{vol} vol\",\"wonProgress\":\"{won} of {count} won\"},\"teamToWin\":\"{team} to win\",\"draw\":\"Draw\"},\"deposit\":{\"fundsActivated\":{\"title\":\"Funds Activated\",\"description\":\"Your funds are available to trade!\",\"startTrading\":\"Start Trading\"}},\"verifyEmail\":{\"verifying\":\"Verifying your email...\",\"codeNotFound\":\"Verification code not found\",\"linkExpired\":\"Verification link has expired\",\"alreadyVerified\":\"Email has already been verified!\",\"nothingMoreToDo\":\"There is nothing more to do here\",\"verified\":\"Your email has been verified!\",\"stayTuned\":\"Stay tuned for updates via email\",\"redirecting\":\"Redirecting...\",\"somethingWentWrong\":\"Something went wrong!\",\"requestAgain\":\"Please request again in your Polymarket settings\",\"contactUs\":\"Contact us\",\"ifYouNeedHelp\":\"if you need help.\"},\"portfolio\":{\"today\":\"past day\",\"availableToTrade\":\"Available to trade\",\"profitLoss\":\"Profit/Loss\",\"pastDay\":\"Past Day\",\"pastWeek\":\"Past Week\",\"pastMonth\":\"Past Month\",\"pastYear\":\"Past Year\",\"yearToDate\":\"Year to Date\",\"allTime\":\"All-Time\",\"meta\":{\"title\":\"Your Portfolio | Polymarket\",\"description\":\"View your Polymarket portfolio and track your trades and winnings.\"},\"claim\":{\"youWon\":\"You won\",\"claim\":\"Redeem\",\"bet\":\"Traded\",\"won\":\"Won\",\"value\":\"Value\"},\"status\":{\"won\":\"Won\",\"lost\":\"Lost\"},\"tabs\":{\"positions\":\"Positions\",\"history\":\"History\",\"marketRewards\":\"Sponsorships\"},\"filters\":{\"search\":\"Search\",\"closeLosses\":\"Close Losses\",\"export\":\"Export\",\"loading\":\"Loading\",\"loadMore\":\"Load more\"},\"table\":{\"activity\":\"Activity\",\"market\":\"Market\",\"value\":\"Value\",\"filled\":\"Filled\",\"total\":\"Total\",\"expiration\":\"Expiration\",\"time\":\"Time\",\"showMore\":\"Show more\",\"showMorePositions\":\"Show more positions\",\"showMoreHistory\":\"Show more history\",\"showMoreRewards\":\"Show more rewards\",\"cancelAll\":\"Cancel all\"},\"messages\":{\"noTradesYet\":\"You haven't traded any polymarkets yet\",\"noOpenOrdersFound\":\"No open orders found.\",\"loadingError\":\"There was an error loading your activity. Please try refreshing the page.\",\"noPositionsFound\":\"No positions found.\",\"failedToRedeem\":\"Failed to redeem position\"},\"sponsorships\":{\"viewSponsorships\":\"View Sponsorships\",\"noSponsorshipsFound\":\"No sponsorships found\",\"errorLoading\":\"There was an error loading sponsorships. Please try refreshing the page.\",\"headers\":{\"status\":\"Status\",\"market\":\"Market\",\"startDate\":\"Start date\",\"endDate\":\"End date\",\"progress\":\"Progress\"},\"sortBy\":{\"currentValue\":\"Current value\",\"startDate\":\"Start date\",\"endDate\":\"End date\",\"dailyRate\":\"Daily rate\",\"alphabetically\":\"Alphabetically\"},\"status\":{\"active\":\"Active\",\"ended\":\"Ended\",\"upcoming\":\"Pending\"},\"perDay\":\"/day\",\"daysLeft\":\"{count} days left\",\"refunded\":\"Refunded\",\"refundTooltip\":\"Refunds are processed daily between 12–1 AM UTC. \",\"confirming\":\"Confirming...\",\"cancelling\":\"Cancelling\",\"cancellingTooltip\":\"Your refund covers the period from 12:00 AM UTC onward. Rewards continue until then. Any portion not earned by liquidity provider is also refunded after 12:00 AM UTC.\",\"linkCopied\":\"Link copied!\",\"linkCopiedDescription\":\"Market link copied to clipboard\"},\"notAvailable\":\"N/A\",\"errorState\":{\"title\":\"Something went wrong\",\"message\":\"We encountered an error while loading your data.\",\"errorDetails\":\"Error details\"},\"redeemAmount\":{\"receive\":\"Receive\",\"sellingShares\":\"Selling {shares} shares @ {avgPrice}\"},\"modals\":{\"close\":{\"title\":\"Polymarkets Lost\",\"description\":\"You can close out these resolved positions to realize the loss.\",\"closePositionsCount\":\"Close {count} Positions\",\"processing\":\"Processing... {current}/{total}\",\"done\":\"Done\",\"tryAgain\":\"Try again\",\"successMessage\":\"You have successfully closed all shares.\",\"positionsClosed\":\"Positions closed\",\"closedCount\":\"Closed {count} positions\"},\"redeem\":{\"youWon\":\"You won\",\"greatJob\":\"Great job predicting the future on Polymarket!\",\"successDescription\":\"Your winnings are ready. Get back to trading!\",\"claimProceeds\":\"Redeem proceeds\",\"shareWinnings\":\"Share your ${amount} winnings\",\"claimAmount\":\"Redeem ${amount}\",\"processing\":\"Processing... {current}/{total}\",\"tweetText\":\"I just won ${amount} on @Polymarket!\\n\\nJoin me and put your money where your mouth is:\"},\"merge\":{\"description\":\"This will merge all eligible market positions.\",\"processing\":\"Processing... {current}/{total}\",\"successMessage\":\"You successfully merged all your eligible positions.\"},\"error\":{\"title\":\"Redeem Failed\",\"helpArticleText\":\"Please visit\",\"helpArticleLink\":\"this help article\",\"forMoreAssistance\":\"for more assistance.\",\"tryAgain\":\"Try again\"}},\"sort\":{\"currentValue\":\"Current value\",\"bet\":\"Traded\",\"profitLossPercent\":\"Profit \u0026 Loss %\",\"profitLossDollar\":\"Profit \u0026 Loss $\",\"shares\":\"Shares\",\"alphabetically\":\"Alphabetically\",\"endingSoon\":\"Ending soon\",\"payout\":\"Payout\",\"latestPrice\":\"Latest Price\",\"averageCostPerShare\":\"Average cost per share\",\"newest\":\"Newest\",\"oldest\":\"Oldest\"},\"filtersHistory\":{\"all\":\"All\",\"trades\":\"Trades\",\"buy\":\"Buy\",\"merge\":\"Merge\",\"redeem\":\"Redeem\",\"liquidityRewards\":\"Liquidity Rewards\",\"referralRewards\":\"Referral Rewards\",\"holdingRewards\":\"Holding Rewards\",\"sell\":\"Sell\",\"split\":\"Split\",\"convert\":\"Convert\",\"migrate\":\"Migrate\",\"lost\":\"Lost\",\"deposit\":\"Deposit\",\"withdraw\":\"Withdraw\"},\"orders\":{\"viewOpenOrders\":\"View Open Orders\",\"sort\":{\"market\":\"Market\",\"filledQty\":\"Filled Quantity\",\"totalQty\":\"Total Quantity\",\"orderDate\":\"Order Date\",\"resolution\":\"Resolving Soonest\"}},\"positionsTable\":{\"market\":\"Market\",\"avg\":\"Avg\",\"now\":\"Now\",\"avgToNowTooltip\":\"Your average buy price per share vs the current price\",\"howDoSharePricesWork\":\"How do share prices work?\",\"bet\":\"Traded\",\"toWin\":\"To win\",\"value\":\"Value\"},\"autoRedeem\":{\"title\":\"Get Paid Instantly\",\"reenableTitle\":\"Re-enable Auto-Redeem\",\"description\":\"When you win, your payout hits your balance automatically. No more manual steps.\",\"oneTimeApprovalLabel\":\"One-time approval\",\"oneTimeApprovalDesc\":\"Sign a single transaction and you're set\",\"startsAfterNextTradeLabel\":\"Starts after your next trade\",\"startsAfterNextTradeDesc\":\"Manually redeem winnings one last time.\",\"alwaysOnLabel\":\"Always on\",\"alwaysOnDesc\":\"Once enabled, it stays on permanently.\",\"approving\":\"Approving...\",\"enableAutoRedeem\":\"Enable Auto-Redeem\",\"enabledToastTitle\":\"Auto-Redeem Enabled\",\"enabledToastDesc\":\"Your winnings will be redeemed automatically.\",\"failedToastTitle\":\"Auto-Redeem Failed\",\"failedToastDesc\":\"Something went wrong. Please try again.\",\"txFailedError\":\"Transaction failed to confirm. Please try again!\",\"signatureRejectedError\":\"The signature was rejected. Please try again!\",\"genericError\":\"Something went wrong. Please try again!\",\"settingTitle\":\"Auto-redeem wins\",\"settingEnabling\":\"Enabling...\",\"settingEnable\":\"Enable\",\"settingActiveDesc\":\"Your winnings are redeemed automatically when markets close.\",\"settingInactiveDesc\":\"Automatically redeem your winnings from markets when they close. One-time approval, always on.\",\"settingDisable\":\"Disable\",\"settingDisabling\":\"Disabling...\",\"disabledToastTitle\":\"Auto-Redeem Disabled\",\"disabledToastDesc\":\"Your winnings will no longer be redeemed automatically.\"},\"copyAddress\":\"Copy address\",\"copied\":\"Copied!\",\"walletAddressTitle\":\"Your Polymarket Wallet Address\",\"walletAddressWarning\":\"Do not send funds to this address. This address is for API use only.\",\"chartIntervalOneDay\":\"1D\",\"chartIntervalOneWeek\":\"1W\",\"chartIntervalOneMonth\":\"1M\",\"chartIntervalOneYear\":\"1Y\",\"chartIntervalYtd\":\"YTD\",\"chartIntervalAll\":\"ALL\",\"pleaseTryAgain\":\"Please try again\",\"tooltipShare\":\"Share\",\"tooltipCloseLostPosition\":\"Close lost position\",\"tooltipViewTransaction\":\"View transaction\",\"transferBetweenPredictionsAndPerps\":\"Transfer between Predictions and Perps\",\"transferPending\":\"Transfer pending...\"},\"orders\":{\"cancelFailuresDescription\":\"{failed} out of {total} orders failed to cancel. Please try again.\",\"filled\":\"Filled\",\"remaining\":\"{count} remaining\",\"ordersCancelled\":\"Orders cancelled\",\"cancelOrdersError\":\"Error cancelling orders\",\"cancelOrdersCount\":\"{count} orders were cancelled\",\"areYouSure\":\"Are you sure?\",\"cancelMultipleOrders\":\"You will cancel {count} open orders.\",\"cancelSingleOrder\":\"Are you sure you want to cancel this open order?\",\"neverMind\":\"Never mind\",\"confirm\":\"Confirm\",\"cannotBeUndone\":\"This action cannot be undone.\",\"cancelOneOpenOrder\":\"Cancel 1 open order\",\"cancelNOpenOrders\":\"Cancel {count} open orders\",\"cancelOneOrder\":\"Cancel 1 order\",\"cancelNOrders\":\"Cancel {count} orders\",\"orderCancelledSuccessfully\":\"Order cancelled successfully\",\"ordersCancelledSuccessfully\":\"{count} orders cancelled successfully\",\"earningRewards\":\"Earning rewards\",\"cancel\":\"Cancel\",\"cancelAll\":\"Cancel All\",\"viewOpen\":\"View Open\",\"nOrders\":\"{count} orders\",\"nOrdersTitle\":\"{count} Orders\",\"nOrdersWereCancelled\":\"{count} orders were cancelled\",\"errorCancellingNOrders\":\"Error cancelling {count} orders\"},\"shareCards\":{\"shareProfile\":\"Share Profile\",\"sharePnlChart\":\"Share Profit/Loss Chart\",\"shareTrade\":\"Share Trade\",\"profileTweetText\":\"Check out my profile on @Polymarket.\",\"pnlTweetText\":\"Check out my P\u0026L on @Polymarket.\",\"ownTradeTweetText\":\"I just put my money where my mouth is on @Polymarket.\\n\\nTrade against me:\",\"thirdPartyTradeTweetText\":\"Check out this trade on @Polymarket.\",\"copied\":\"Copied!\",\"copyLink\":\"Copy link\",\"copyImage\":\"Copy image\",\"share\":\"Share\",\"shareWin\":\"Share Win\",\"cashoutTweetText\":\"I just won on @Polymarket.\",\"shareCombo\":\"Share combo\",\"sharePosition\":\"Share position\",\"perpsTweetText\":\"I just shared my {symbol} position on @Polymarket.\\n\\nTrade against me:\",\"entry\":\"Entry\",\"current\":\"Current\",\"exit\":\"Exit\",\"long\":\"Long\",\"short\":\"Short\",\"return\":\"Return\",\"since\":\"Since\",\"showPercent\":\"Show percent\",\"showDollars\":\"Show dollars\",\"comboTweetText\":\"I just built a combo on @Polymarket.\\n\\nTrade against me:\",\"pickCombo\":\"{count} pick combo\",\"toWin\":\"{amount} to win\",\"saveImage\":\"Save image\",\"save\":\"Save\"},\"events\":{\"negRiskBadge\":{\"title\":\"Winner-take-all\",\"onlyOneWinner\":\"Only 1 winner\",\"supportsNegativeRisk\":\"Supports negative risk (convert No shares to Yes of the other options)\",\"completeNegativeRisk\":\"Complete negative risk\",\"completeNegativeRiskDescription\":\"users who convert will receive Yes shares in any outcomes added in the future\"},\"headerMeta\":{\"volume\":\"Vol.\",\"holdingRewardsTooltip\":\"To keep long-term pricing accurate, we're paying a 3.25% reward on your total position on this market.\"},\"resolution\":{\"outcomeProposed\":\"Outcome proposed\",\"outcomeProposal\":\"Outcome proposal\",\"disputeWindow\":\"Dispute window\",\"extendedReviewTooltip\":\"This proposal has been flagged for additional review that may end at any time. See UMA \u003cdocs\u003edocs\u003c/docs\u003e for more info.\",\"disputeWindowExtended\":\"Dispute window extended\",\"noDispute\":\"No dispute\",\"final\":\"Final\",\"finalReview\":\"Final review\",\"inReview\":\"In Review\",\"finalOutcome\":\"Final outcome\",\"disputed\":\"Disputed\",\"finalDispute\":\"Final dispute\",\"proposeResolution\":\"Propose resolution\",\"noOutcomeProposedYet\":\"No outcome has been proposed yet.\",\"dispute\":\"Dispute\",\"viewDetails\":\"View details\"},\"grokEventSummary\":{\"marketContext\":\"Market Context\",\"generate\":\"Generate\",\"gettingSources\":\"Getting sources...\",\"resultsExperimental\":\"Results are experimental.\",\"contextDisclaimer\":\"Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves.\",\"contextUpdated\":\"Updated\"},\"aboutSection\":{\"about\":\"About\",\"rules\":\"Rules\",\"showLess\":\"Show less\",\"showMore\":\"Show more\",\"createdAt\":\"Market Opened:\",\"resolver\":\"Resolver\",\"sources\":\"Sources\",\"resolutionSource\":\"Resolution Source\",\"liveDataDisclaimer\":\"Live data may be delayed by a few seconds and can be influenced by price activity on other exchanges and broader market conditions.\"},\"statistics\":{\"volume\":\"Volume\",\"endDate\":\"End Date\",\"createdAt\":\"Market Opened\"},\"lowerState\":{\"comments\":\"Comments\",\"holders\":\"Top Holders\",\"positions\":\"Positions\",\"activity\":\"Activity\",\"related\":\"Related\"},\"tabs\":{\"positions\":\"Positions\",\"history\":\"History\",\"orderBook\":\"Order Book\",\"graph\":\"Graph\",\"openOrders\":\"Open Orders\",\"resolution\":\"Resolution\"},\"orderHeaders\":{\"type\":\"type\",\"side\":\"side\",\"outcome\":\"outcome\",\"price\":\"price\",\"filled\":\"filled\",\"total\":\"total\",\"expiration\":\"expiration\",\"expiry\":\"expiry\"},\"resolutionCountdown\":{\"eventHasEnded\":\"Event has ended\",\"day\":\"Day\",\"days\":\"Days\",\"hr\":\"Hr\",\"hrs\":\"Hrs\",\"min\":\"Min\",\"mins\":\"Mins\",\"sec\":\"Sec\",\"secs\":\"Secs\",\"left\":\"left\",\"resolutionTime\":\"Resolution Time\"},\"returnCell\":{\"unrealized\":\"Unrealized\",\"realized\":\"Realized\",\"total\":\"Total\"},\"marketUpdates\":{\"additionalContext\":\"Additional context\",\"updated\":\"Updated {date}\"},\"netPositions\":{\"title\":\"Net Positions\",\"description\":\"Your gains for each outcome scenario based on all your positions.\",\"viewNetPositions\":\"View Net Positions\",\"payout\":\"Payout\"},\"dateDisplay\":{\"resolvedAgo\":\"Resolved {days} ago\",\"inDays\":\"In {days}\",\"estimatedTimeRemaining\":\"Estimated time remaining: {countdown}\",\"seeRulesBelow\":\"See rules below for specific resolution details.\",\"estimatedEndDate\":\"This is estimated end date. See rules below for specific resolution details.\"},\"videoEmbed\":{\"watchStream\":\"Watch Stream\",\"ended\":\"Ended\",\"beginsIn\":\"Starts in\"},\"goToLiveMarket\":\"Go to live market\",\"finalPrice\":\"Final price\",\"twapResolvedMarket\":\"This is a TWAP resolved market\",\"noPositionsYet\":\"No positions yet\",\"marketInsights\":\"Market Insights\",\"unableToLoadChart\":\"Unable to load chart data\",\"liveStream\":\"Live Stream\",\"logInToViewStream\":\"Please log in to view this stream.\",\"play\":\"Play\",\"pause\":\"Pause\",\"mute\":\"Mute\",\"unmute\":\"Unmute\",\"volume\":\"Volume\",\"live\":\"Live\",\"fullscreen\":\"Fullscreen\",\"minimize\":\"Minimize\",\"convertPositions\":{\"title\":\"Convert positions\",\"description\":\"Convert your \\\"No\\\" positions to the complementary \\\"Yes\\\" positions (and potentially USDC).\",\"learnMore\":\"Learn more\",\"selectOneOrMore\":\"Select one or more\",\"noPositions\":\"No Positions\",\"enterAmount\":\"Enter amount\",\"review\":\"Review\",\"completed\":\"Completed\",\"youHaveNewShares\":\"You have new shares\",\"okay\":\"Okay\",\"convert\":\"Convert\",\"shares\":\"shares\"}},\"eventFaq\":{\"title\":\"Frequently Asked Questions\",\"whatIsMarket\":{\"q\":\"What is the \\\"{title}\\\" prediction market?\",\"binaryA\":\"\\\"{title}\\\" is a prediction market on Polymarket where traders buy and sell \\\"Yes\\\" or \\\"No\\\" shares based on whether they believe this event will happen. The current crowd-sourced probability is {leadingProbabilityDisplay} for \\\"{leadingOutcome}.\\\" For example, if \\\"Yes\\\" is priced at {leadingProbabilityCents}, the market collectively assigns a {leadingProbabilityDisplay} chance that this event will occur. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.\",\"multiWithSecondA\":\"\\\"{title}\\\" is a prediction market on Polymarket with {outcomeCountDisplay} possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is \\\"{leadingOutcome}\\\" at {leadingProbabilityDisplay}, followed by \\\"{secondOutcome}\\\" at {secondProbabilityDisplay}. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at {leadingProbabilityCents} implies that the market collectively assigns a {leadingProbabilityDisplay} chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.\",\"multiWithoutSecondA\":\"\\\"{title}\\\" is a prediction market on Polymarket with {outcomeCountDisplay} possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is \\\"{leadingOutcome}\\\" at {leadingProbabilityDisplay}. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at {leadingProbabilityCents} implies that the market collectively assigns a {leadingProbabilityDisplay} chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.\"},\"activity\":{\"q\":\"How much trading activity has \\\"{title}\\\" generated on Polymarket?\",\"highVolumeA\":\"As of today, \\\"{title}\\\" has generated {totalVolumeRounded} in total trading volume{datePart}. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.\",\"highVolumeDatePart\":\" since the market launched on {createdAt}\",\"newMarketA\":\"\\\"{title}\\\" is a newly created market on Polymarket{datePart}. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.\",\"newMarketDatePart\":\", launched on {createdAt}\"},\"howToTrade\":{\"q\":\"How do I trade on \\\"{title}\\\"?\",\"binaryA\":\"To trade on \\\"{title},\\\" simply choose whether you believe the answer is \\\"Yes\\\" or \\\"No.\\\" Each side has a current price that reflects the market's implied probability. Enter your amount and click \\\"Trade.\\\" If you buy \\\"Yes\\\" shares and the outcome resolves as \\\"Yes,\\\" each share pays out $1. If it resolves as \\\"No,\\\" your \\\"Yes\\\" shares pay $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.\",\"multiA\":\"To trade on \\\"{title},\\\" browse the {outcomeCountDisplay} available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose \\\"Yes\\\" to trade in favor of it or \\\"No\\\" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click \\\"Trade.\\\" If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your \\\"Yes\\\" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.\"},\"currentOdds\":{\"q\":\"What are the current odds for \\\"{title}\\\"?\",\"noTradesA\":\"This market was recently created and has not yet received its first trade. Be the first to set the opening odds by placing a trade, or bookmark this page to check back as the market develops.\",\"binaryA\":\"The current probability for \\\"{title}\\\" is {leadingProbabilityDisplay} for \\\"{leadingOutcome}.\\\" This means the Polymarket crowd currently believes there is a {leadingProbabilityDisplay} chance that this event will occur. These odds update in real-time based on actual trades, providing a continuously updated signal of what the market expects to happen.\",\"wideOpenWithSecondA\":\"This is a wide-open market. The current leader for \\\"{title}\\\" is \\\"{leadingOutcome}\\\" at just {leadingProbabilityDisplay}, with \\\"{secondOutcome}\\\" close behind at {secondProbabilityDisplay}. With no outcome commanding a strong majority, traders see this as highly uncertain, which can present unique trading opportunities. These odds update in real-time, so bookmark this page to watch how the probabilities evolve.\",\"wideOpenWithoutSecondA\":\"This is a wide-open market. The current leader for \\\"{title}\\\" is \\\"{leadingOutcome}\\\" at just {leadingProbabilityDisplay}. With no outcome commanding a strong majority, traders see this as highly uncertain, which can present unique trading opportunities. These odds update in real-time, so bookmark this page to watch how the probabilities evolve.\",\"standardWithSecondA\":\"The current frontrunner for \\\"{title}\\\" is \\\"{leadingOutcome}\\\" at {leadingProbabilityDisplay}, meaning the market assigns a {leadingProbabilityDisplay} chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is \\\"{secondOutcome}\\\" at {secondProbabilityDisplay}. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.\",\"standardWithoutSecondA\":\"The current frontrunner for \\\"{title}\\\" is \\\"{leadingOutcome}\\\" at {leadingProbabilityDisplay}, meaning the market assigns a {leadingProbabilityDisplay} chance to that outcome. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.\"},\"resolution\":{\"q\":\"How will \\\"{title}\\\" be resolved?\",\"a\":\"The resolution rules for \\\"{title}\\\" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the \\\"Rules\\\" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.\"},\"followWithout\":{\"q\":\"Can I follow \\\"{title}\\\" without placing a trade?\",\"a\":\"Yes. You don't need to trade to stay informed. This page serves as a live tracker for \\\"{title}.\\\" The outcome probabilities update in real-time as new trades come in. You can bookmark this page and check the comments section to see what other traders are saying. You can also use the time-range filters on the chart to see how the odds have shifted over time. It's a free, real-time window into what the market expects to happen.\"},\"reliability\":{\"q\":\"Why are Polymarket's odds for \\\"{title}\\\" considered reliable?\",\"highVolumeSchemaA\":\"Polymarket odds are set by real traders putting real money behind their beliefs, which tends to surface accurate predictions. With {totalVolumeRounded} traded on \\\"{title},\\\" these prices aggregate the collective knowledge and conviction of thousands of participants — often outperforming polls, expert forecasts, and traditional surveys. Prediction markets like Polymarket have a strong track record of accuracy, especially as events approach their resolution date. For example, Polymarket has a one month accuracy score of {accuracyScore}. For the latest stats on Polymarket's prediction accuracy, visit the accuracy page on Polymarket.\",\"highVolumeBeforeLink\":\"Polymarket odds are set by real traders putting real money behind their beliefs, which tends to surface accurate predictions. With {totalVolumeRounded} traded on “{title},” these prices aggregate the collective knowledge and conviction of thousands of participants — often outperforming polls, expert forecasts, and traditional surveys. Prediction markets like Polymarket have a strong track record of accuracy, especially as events approach their resolution date. For example, Polymarket has a one month accuracy score of {accuracyScore}. For the latest stats on Polymarket’s prediction accuracy, visit the \",\"highVolumeAfterLink\":\" on Polymarket.\",\"lowVolumeSchemaA\":\"Polymarket odds are set by real traders putting real money behind their beliefs, which tends to surface accurate predictions. \\\"{title}\\\" is still building its trading base, so the odds will become increasingly reliable as more participants enter the market. Prediction markets like Polymarket have a strong track record of accuracy, especially as events approach their resolution date. For example, Polymarket has a one month accuracy score of {accuracyScore}. For the latest stats on Polymarket's prediction accuracy, visit the accuracy page on Polymarket.\",\"lowVolumeBeforeLink\":\"Polymarket odds are set by real traders putting real money behind their beliefs, which tends to surface accurate predictions. “{title}” is still building its trading base, so the odds will become increasingly reliable as more participants enter the market. Prediction markets like Polymarket have a strong track record of accuracy, especially as events approach their resolution date. For example, Polymarket has a one month accuracy score of {accuracyScore}. For the latest stats on Polymarket’s prediction accuracy, visit the \",\"lowVolumeAfterLink\":\" on Polymarket.\",\"linkText\":\"accuracy page\"},\"getStarted\":{\"q\":\"How do I start trading on \\\"{title}\\\"?\",\"a\":\"To place your first trade on \\\"{title},\\\" sign up for a free Polymarket account and fund it using crypto, a credit or debit card, or a bank transfer. Once your account is funded, return to this page, select the outcome you want to trade, enter your amount, and click \\\"Trade.\\\" If you're new to prediction markets, click the \\\"How it works\\\" link at the top of any Polymarket page for a quick step-by-step walkthrough of how trading works.\"},\"priceMeaning\":{\"binaryQ\":\"What does a price of {leadingProbabilityCents} for \\\"{leadingOutcome}\\\" mean?\",\"binaryA\":\"On Polymarket, the price of \\\"Yes\\\" or \\\"No\\\" represents the market's implied probability. A \\\"Yes\\\" price of {leadingProbabilityCents} for \\\"{title}\\\" means traders collectively believe there is a {leadingProbability}% chance this event will happen. If you buy \\\"Yes\\\" at {leadingProbabilityCents} and the event does happen, you receive $1.00 per share — a profit of {payoutMathDisplay} per share. If the event doesn't happen, those shares are worth $0.\",\"multiQ\":\"What does a price of {leadingProbabilityCents} for \\\"{leadingOutcome}\\\" mean?\",\"multiA\":\"On Polymarket, the price of each outcome represents the market's implied probability. A price of {leadingProbabilityCents} for \\\"{leadingOutcome}\\\" in the \\\"{title}\\\" market means traders collectively believe there is roughly a {leadingProbabilityDisplay} chance that \\\"{leadingOutcome}\\\" will be the correct result. If you buy \\\"Yes\\\" shares at {leadingProbabilityCents} and the outcome is correct, you receive $1.00 per share — a profit of {payoutMathDisplay} per share. If incorrect, those shares are worth $0.\"},\"marketClose\":{\"q\":\"When does the \\\"{title}\\\" market close?\",\"resolvedA\":\"The \\\"{title}\\\" market has been resolved. The final result has been determined and the market is no longer open for trading. You can still review the historical odds, outcome probabilities, and comments on this page to see how predictions evolved over time.\",\"endDatePassedA\":\"The \\\"{title}\\\" market's scheduled end date has passed, but the market has not yet been officially resolved. The end date indicates when the underlying event is expected to occur or become knowable. It is not the moment trading stops. The market remains open for trading until the outcome is formally resolved through the resolution process. You can still buy, sell, or close your position while the market is pending resolution. Check the resolution status tracker and \\\"Rules\\\" section on this page for updates on the resolution timeline.\",\"noEndDateA\":\"This market will resolve when the event's official outcome is determined. Check the \\\"Rules\\\" section on this page for the specific resolution criteria and timing.\",\"longTermA\":\"The \\\"{title}\\\" market is a long-term prediction with a resolution date of {endDate} — that's roughly {timeUntilResolution} away. Long-term markets on Polymarket often see their odds shift significantly as events unfold, making them useful for tracking evolving sentiment. You can trade at any time or bookmark this page to follow the odds over the months and years ahead.\",\"standardA\":\"The \\\"{title}\\\" market is scheduled to resolve on or around {endDate}. This means trading will remain open and the odds will continue to shift as new information emerges until that date. The exact resolution timing depends on when the official result becomes available, as outlined in the \\\"Rules\\\" section on this page.\"},\"tradersSaying\":{\"q\":\"What are traders saying about \\\"{title}\\\"?\",\"activeCommunity\":\"an active community of {countDisplay} comments\",\"growingDiscussion\":\"a growing discussion of {countDisplay} comments\",\"activeA\":\"The \\\"{title}\\\" market has {communityPhrasing} where traders share their analysis, debate outcomes, and discuss breaking developments. Scroll down to the comments section below to read what other participants think. You can also filter by \\\"Top Holders\\\" to see what the market's biggest traders are positioned on, or check the \\\"Activity\\\" tab for a real-time feed of trades.\",\"newMarketA\":\"The \\\"{title}\\\" market was recently created. Be one of the first to share your analysis by posting a comment below, or check back as the market grows to read what other traders think. You can also view the \\\"Activity\\\" tab for a real-time feed of recent trades.\"},\"whatIsPolymarket\":{\"q\":\"What is Polymarket?\",\"a\":\"Polymarket is the world's largest prediction market, where you can stay informed and profit from your knowledge of real-world events. Traders buy and sell shares on outcomes for topics ranging from politics and elections to crypto, finance, sports, tech, and culture, including markets like \\\"{title}.\\\" Prices reflect real-time, crowd-sourced probabilities backed by financial conviction, often providing faster and more accurate signals than polls, pundits, or traditional surveys.\"},\"timeUntil\":{\"aboutOneDay\":\"about 1 day\",\"aboutDays\":\"about {count} days\",\"aboutOneMonth\":\"about 1 month\",\"aboutMonths\":\"about {count} months\",\"overOneYear\":\"over 1 year\",\"overYears\":\"over {count} years\"}},\"comments\":{\"addComment\":\"Add a comment...\",\"post\":\"Post\",\"bewareExternalLinks\":\"Beware of external links.\",\"newest\":\"Newest\",\"mostLiked\":\"Most liked\",\"holders\":\"Holders\",\"reply\":\"Reply\",\"replies\":\"{count} Replies\",\"share\":\"Share\",\"report\":\"Report\",\"delete\":\"Delete\",\"noComments\":\"No comments\",\"linkCopied\":\"Link copied!\",\"linkCopiedDescription\":\"Comment link copied to clipboard\",\"failedToCopyLink\":\"Failed to copy link\",\"pleaseTryAgain\":\"Please try again\",\"duplicateContentNotAllowed\":\"Duplicate content not allowed\",\"commentNotAllowed\":\"Comment not allowed\",\"tooManyComments\":\"Too many comments\",\"reported\":{\"title\":\"Comment reported\",\"description\":\"You reported this comment.\",\"alreadyReported\":\"You already reported this comment.\"},\"deleteDialog\":{\"title\":\"Delete comment\",\"description\":\"Are you sure you want to delete your comment?\",\"cancel\":\"Never mind\",\"confirm\":\"Confirm\"},\"emojiPicker\":{\"search\":\"Search emoji\",\"loading\":\"Loading...\",\"noResults\":\"No emoji found.\"},\"giphyPicker\":{\"search\":\"Search Giphy\",\"title\":\"GIFs\",\"description\":\"Search and select GIFs\",\"noResults\":\"No GIFs found\"}},\"topHolders\":{\"holders\":\"holders\",\"shares\":\"shares\",\"noHolders\":\"There are no holders.\",\"noNameHolders\":\"No {name}\",\"live\":\"Live\",\"positionFilters\":{\"all\":\"All\",\"open\":\"Open\",\"closed\":\"Closed\",\"desc\":\"Desc\",\"asc\":\"Asc\"},\"pnl\":\"PnL\",\"avg\":\"avg\",\"bought\":\"bought\"},\"chart\":{\"settings\":{\"embed\":\"Embed\",\"autoscale\":\"Autoscale\",\"xAxis\":\"X-Axis\",\"yAxis\":\"Y-Axis\",\"horizontalGrid\":\"Horizontal Grid\",\"verticalGrid\":\"Vertical Grid\",\"annotations\":\"Annotations\",\"bothOutcomes\":\"Both Outcomes\",\"chartOptions\":\"Chart Options\",\"settings\":\"Settings\"},\"options\":{\"showOnChart\":\"Show on chart\"},\"intervals\":{\"oneHour\":\"1H\",\"sixHours\":\"6H\",\"oneDay\":\"1D\",\"oneWeek\":\"1W\",\"oneMonth\":\"1M\",\"all\":\"ALL\",\"max\":\"Max\"}},\"tooltips\":{\"cancel\":\"Cancel\"},\"rewards\":{\"earn4Percent\":\"Earn 3.25%\",\"earn4PercentHoldingRewards\":\"Earn 3.25% holding rewards\",\"earnRewardsByPlacingLimitOrders\":\"Earn rewards by placing limit orders near the midpoint.\",\"earnRewardsByPlacingOrdersWithinSpread\":\"Earn rewards by placing competitive limit orders.\",\"learnMore\":\"Learn more\",\"rewards\":\"Rewards\",\"maxSpread\":\"Max Spread\",\"minShares\":\"Min Shares\",\"dailyRewards\":\"Daily Rewards\",\"earnings\":\"Earnings\",\"enableRewards\":\"Enable Rewards\",\"minimumRewardPayout\":\"You only get paid for a day if you earn at least $1 that day. If you earn less than $1, you won't be paid for that day, and the amount won't roll over.\",\"rewardsDisplayedOnceThreshold\":\"Min. payout: {polyThreshold} (Polymarket), {userThreshold} (User Sponsored).\\nRewards are accruing and paid once thresholds are reached.\",\"market\":\"Market\",\"reward\":\"Reward\",\"changes\":\"Changes\",\"competitive\":\"Comp.\",\"percent\":\"Percent\",\"price\":\"Price\",\"rules\":\"Rules\",\"noFavorites\":\"No polymarkets currently on Watchlist\",\"noResults\":\"No results\",\"maxSpreadTooltip\":\"Maximum distance orders must be from market's midpoint to score (inclusive)\",\"competitiveTooltip\":\"How competitive is providing liquidity in this market\",\"earningsTooltip\":\"Rewards currently earned today\",\"polyRewards\":\"Polymarket Rewards\",\"userSponsoredRewards\":\"User Sponsored Rewards\",\"percentTooltip\":\"The percent of scoring liquidity you are currently providing in this market\",\"changeLog\":{\"increased\":\"Increased\",\"decreased\":\"Decreased\",\"time\":\"Time\",\"type\":\"Type\",\"value\":\"Value\",\"reward\":\"Reward\",\"minShares\":\"Min shares\",\"maxSpread\":\"Max spread\",\"minutesAgo\":\"m ago\",\"hoursAgo\":\"h ago\",\"daysAgo\":\"d ago\"},\"categories\":{\"all\":\"all\",\"politics\":\"politics\",\"sports\":\"sports\",\"crypto\":\"crypto\",\"popCulture\":\"pop culture\",\"middleEast\":\"middle east\",\"business\":\"business\",\"science\":\"science\"},\"endOfDay\":\"End of day\",\"custom\":\"Custom\",\"expiry\":\"Expiry\",\"date\":\"Date\",\"time\":\"Time\",\"apply\":\"Apply\",\"expirationError\":\"Expiration must be in future. Try again\",\"expirationModal\":{\"relativeTime\":\"Relative time\",\"relativeTimeHint\":\"e.g 15m or 2h 30m\",\"relativeTimeError\":\"Use values like \\\"15m\\\" or \\\"2h 30m\\\"\",\"expiresIn\":\"Expires in {time}\",\"in30Seconds\":\"In 30 seconds\",\"saveThisOption\":\"Save this option\",\"orPickDateTime\":\"or pick date/time\",\"fiveMinutes\":\"5m\",\"oneHour\":\"1h\",\"twelveHours\":\"12h\",\"twentyFourHours\":\"24h\"},\"removeFromFavorites\":\"Remove from favorites\",\"addToFavorites\":\"Add to favorites\",\"withPositions\":\"Positions\",\"withOpenOrders\":\"Open Orders\",\"mergeablePositions\":\"Mergeable\",\"favoritePolymarkets\":\"Favorites\",\"addSponsor\":\"Add\",\"liveSponsor\":\"Live\",\"addingSponsor\":\"Adding\",\"trading\":{\"place\":\"Place\",\"clear\":\"Clear\",\"cancelAll\":\"Cancel all\",\"orders\":\"Orders\",\"positions\":\"Positions\",\"history\":\"History\",\"tradeHistory\":\"Trade history\",\"trade\":\"TRADE\",\"time\":\"TIME\",\"min\":\"MIN\",\"max\":\"MAX\",\"shares\":\"SHARES\"},\"tabs\":{\"rewards\":\"Rewards\",\"openOrders\":\"Open orders\"},\"searchMarkets\":\"Search markets\",\"sort\":{\"percent\":\"Percent\",\"earnings\":\"Earnings\",\"competition\":\"Competition\",\"maxSpread\":\"Max Spread\",\"minSize\":\"Min Size\",\"market\":\"Market\",\"ratePerDay\":\"Rate Per Day\",\"price\":\"Price\"},\"filters\":{\"decreasedRewards\":\"Decreased rewards\",\"removedRewards\":\"Removed rewards\",\"cancelFiltered\":\"Cancel filtered\",\"rewardDecreased\":\"Reward decreased\",\"rewardRemoved\":\"Reward removed\",\"orderCancelledTitle\":\"Order cancelled\",\"ordersCancelledTitle\":\"Orders cancelled\",\"nOrderWasCancelled\":\"order was cancelled\",\"nOrdersWereCancelled\":\"orders were cancelled\",\"errorCancellingOrderTitle\":\"Error cancelling order\",\"errorCancellingOrdersTitle\":\"Error cancelling orders\",\"errorCancellingNOrder\":\"order\",\"errorCancellingNOrders\":\"orders\"},\"mobile\":{\"maxSpread\":\"Max Spread\",\"minSize\":\"Min size\",\"totalRewards\":\"Total rewards\",\"earnings\":\"Earnings\",\"percent\":\"Percent\",\"price\":\"Price\",\"competition\":\"Competition\"},\"competitiveLevel\":{\"none\":\"No competition\",\"low\":\"Low competition\",\"mild\":\"Mild competition\",\"medium\":\"Medium competition\",\"high\":\"High competition\",\"intense\":\"Intense competition\",\"spreadTooLarge\":\"Spread too large\"},\"sponsor\":{\"attractLiquidity\":\"Attract more liquidity by sponsoring rewards for this market.\",\"learnMore\":\"Learn more\",\"loading\":\"Loading...\",\"trackOrder\":\"Track order\",\"notAvailableInRegion\":\"Not available in your region.\",\"seeTerms\":\"See Terms.\",\"perDay\":\"/day\",\"utcSuffix\":\"UTC\",\"noProxyAddress\":\"No proxy address found. Please connect your wallet.\",\"invalidParameters\":\"Invalid sponsorship parameters\",\"txTimeout\":\"Transaction confirmation timed out after 2 minutes\",\"txFailed\":\"Transaction failed to confirm\",\"signatureRejected\":\"Signature rejected\",\"unknownError\":\"Unknown error occurred\",\"invalidMarketId\":\"Invalid market ID\",\"unavailable\":\"Unavailable\",\"marketSponsored\":\"Market Sponsored\"},\"makerRebate\":{\"description\":\"Earn daily USDC rebates by placing limit orders that get filled.\",\"learnMore\":\"Learn more\",\"label\":\"Maker Rebate\"},\"addRewards\":\"Add Rewards\",\"validation\":{\"orderError\":\"Order Error\",\"minimumShares\":\"Minimum {amount} shares for limit orders\",\"notEnoughShares\":\"Not Enough Shares\",\"orderMustBeGreaterThanDollar\":\"Order must be greater than $1\",\"limitBuyExceedsBalance\":\"Limit Buy Exceeds Balance\"},\"aria\":{\"decreaseDuration\":\"Decrease duration\",\"increaseDuration\":\"Increase duration\",\"copyMarketId\":\"Copy market ID\"},\"sponsorshipModal\":{\"sponsorRewards\":\"Sponsor Market Rewards\",\"sponsorDescriptionPre\":\"Pay liquidity providers to trade on a market you want to see more activity on. \",\"sponsorDescriptionBold\":\"You won't earn rewards yourself\",\"sponsorDescriptionPost\":\", your funds go directly to market makers.\",\"rule1Pre\":\"Funds are \",\"rule1Bold\":\"locked\",\"rule1Post\":\" for the duration of the sponsorship.\",\"rule2Pre\":\"Rewards are distributed \",\"rule2Bold\":\"daily\",\"rule2Post\":\" to eligible liquidity providers.\",\"rule3Pre\":\"Unused funds are \",\"rule3Bold\":\"refunded\",\"rule3Post\":\" if the market resolves early.\",\"acceptAndContinue\":\"Accept \u0026 Continue\",\"logInToContinue\":\"Log in to continue\",\"deposit\":\"Deposit\",\"continue\":\"Continue\",\"day\":\"day\",\"days\":\"days\",\"amount\":\"Amount\",\"balance\":\"Balance:\",\"minimumRequired\":\"Minimum ${amount} required for {days} {daysLabel}\",\"minimumSponsorship\":\"Minimum amount: ${amount} per day\",\"duration\":\"Duration\",\"daysUnit\":\"days\",\"dailyRewardRate\":\"Daily reward rate\",\"commitmentEnds\":\"Commitment ends\",\"unusedFundsReturn\":\"Unused funds are returned if the market resolves early\",\"sponsorshipMinPerDay\":\"Minimum amount: ${amount} per day\",\"insufficientBalance\":\"Balance is insufficient. Please deposit more.\",\"market\":\"Market\",\"marketId\":\"Market ID\",\"totalAmount\":\"Total amount\",\"dailyRate\":\"Daily rate\",\"startDate\":\"Start date\",\"endDate\":\"End date\",\"reviewTitle\":\"Review Order\",\"reviewDescription\":\"Please review your sponsorship details before confirming.\",\"reviewWarningPre\":\"You can cancel anytime. \",\"reviewWarningBold\":\"Your refund covers the remaining balance from the next 12:00 AM UTC onward.\",\"reviewWarningPost\":\" Today's allocation stays in the pool for liquidity providers. Any portion not earned by liquidity providers will be also returned at 12:00 AM UTC. \",\"learnMore\":\"Learn more\",\"editOrder\":\"Edit Order\",\"confirming\":\"Confirming...\",\"confirmOrder\":\"Confirm Order\",\"trackSponsorshipProgress\":\"Track progress\",\"view\":\"View\",\"sponsorshipActive\":\"Sponsorship Active\",\"reviewOrCancel\":\"Review or cancel your sponsorship in\",\"portfolioSponsorships\":\"Portfolio Sponsorships\",\"firstDistribution\":\"First distribution\",\"sponsorship\":\"Sponsorship\",\"sponsorshipLive\":\"Sponsorship Live\",\"contributionSuccess\":\"Your contribution of ${amount} has been successfully added to the market rewards.\",\"earlyResolveNote\":\"If this market resolves before your sponsorship ends, unused funds will automatically return to your balance.\",\"returnToMarket\":\"Return to Market\",\"trackProgress\":\"Track Progress\",\"configError\":\"Configuration Error\",\"noConditionId\":\"No condition ID found for this market\",\"sponsorshipFailed\":\"Sponsorship Failed\",\"unexpectedError\":\"An unexpected error occurred\"},\"cancelModal\":{\"cancelSponsorship\":\"Cancel Sponsorship\",\"sponsorshipCancelled\":\"Sponsorship Cancelled\",\"market\":\"Market\",\"totalAmount\":\"Total amount\",\"dailyRate\":\"Daily rate\",\"availableForWithdrawal\":\"Available for withdrawal\",\"warningText\":\"Your refund is processed immediately, but only covers the period after the next 12:00 AM UTC. Today's allocation stays committed to the reward pool. Any portion not earned by liquidity providers will be also returned at 12:00 AM UTC.\",\"close\":\"Close\",\"cancelling\":\"Cancelling...\",\"cancel\":\"Cancel\",\"cancellationFailed\":\"Cancellation Failed\",\"unexpectedError\":\"An unexpected error occurred\",\"successHeading\":\"Sponsorship cancelled\",\"successDescription\":\"Your unused sponsorship balance will be refunded automatically.\",\"done\":\"Done\",\"withdrawalTooltip\":\"This sponsorship ends before the next 12:00 AM UTC epoch. Today's full allocation is already committed to the reward pool.\"}},\"sports\":{\"all\":\"All\",\"parlays\":\"Parlays\",\"seriesTotals\":\"Series Totals\",\"positionBreakdown\":\"Position Breakdown\",\"viewAllGames\":\"View all {league} games\",\"seriesLines\":\"Series Lines\",\"noGamesToDisplay\":\"No games to display\",\"noLiveEsportsGamesRightNow\":\"No live esports games right now\",\"upcomingEsportsGames\":\"Upcoming Esports Games\",\"viewUpcomingGames\":\"View Upcoming Games\",\"noUpcomingEsportsGamesScheduled\":\"No upcoming esports games scheduled\",\"viewLiveGames\":\"View Live Games\",\"noMarketsToDisplay\":\"No markets to display\",\"loadingMore\":\"Loading more...\",\"week\":\"Week\",\"matchday\":\"Matchday\",\"preseason\":\"Preseason\",\"spreads\":\"Spreads\",\"totals\":\"Totals\",\"showSpreadsTotals\":\"Show Spreads + Totals\",\"live\":\"Live\",\"liveStats\":\"Live stats\",\"liveBlog\":\"Live blog\",\"analytics\":\"Analytics\",\"expectedGoals\":\"Expected goals\",\"averagePositions\":\"Average positions\",\"passMatrix\":\"Pass matrix\",\"actionAreas\":\"Action areas\",\"momentum\":\"Momentum\",\"matchStats\":\"Match stats\",\"headToHead\":\"Head-to-head\",\"liveGamesCount\":\"{count} live\",\"liveFeedDisclaimer\":\"This feed is provided for informational purposes only. It may be delayed, contain errors, or omit recent events. Polymarket does not provide trading or investment advice, and this content should not be used as the basis for any trading decision.\",\"regTime\":\"Reg Time\",\"regTimeDisclaimer\":\"This market refers only to the outcome within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time\",\"teamToAdvanceDisclaimer\":\"This market refers to the final outcome of the match, including extra time and penalty shootouts.\",\"teamToAdvanceSeriesDisclaimer\":\"This market refers to the final outcome of the series, including any tiebreakers.\",\"regTimeFirstHalfDisclaimer\":\"This market refers only to the outcome within the first 45 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time\",\"regTimeSecondHalfDisclaimer\":\"This market refers only to the outcome within the second 45 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time\",\"regTimePlayerGoalsDisclaimer\":\"Player to record X or more goals. If the player is listed as inactive or otherwise does not play, the market will resolve \\\"No\\\". This market refers only to the outcome within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time.\",\"regTimePlayerAssistsDisclaimer\":\"Player to record X or more assists. If the player is listed as inactive or otherwise does not play, the market will resolve \\\"No\\\". This market refers only to the outcome within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time.\",\"regTimePlayerShotsDisclaimer\":\"Player to record X or more shots. If the player is listed as inactive or otherwise does not play, the market will resolve \\\"No\\\". This market refers only to the outcome within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time.\",\"upcoming\":\"Upcoming\",\"startingSoon\":\"Starting soon\",\"allSports\":\"All Sports\",\"allTournaments\":\"All Tournaments\",\"futures\":\"Futures\",\"combosH1\":\"{name} Combos\",\"combosLive\":\"Combos Live\",\"combosNav\":{\"sports\":\"Sports\",\"crypto\":\"Crypto\"},\"games\":\"Games\",\"game1\":\"Game 1\",\"game2\":\"Game 2\",\"game3\":\"Game 3\",\"game4\":\"Game 4\",\"game5\":\"Game 5\",\"map1\":\"Map 1\",\"map2\":\"Map 2\",\"map3\":\"Map 3\",\"map4\":\"Map 4\",\"map5\":\"Map 5\",\"props\":\"Props\",\"propsFilters\":{\"cfb\":{\"cfp\":\"CFP\",\"teamWinTotals\":\"Team Win Totals\",\"awards\":\"CFB Awards\",\"playerStats\":\"Player Stats\",\"conferenceChampions\":\"Conference Champions\",\"rankings\":\"CFB Rankings\",\"more\":\"More CFB\"}},\"rosterChanges\":\"Roster changes\",\"trendingProps\":\"Trending props\",\"latestNews\":\"News\",\"events\":\"Events\",\"moneyline\":\"Moneyline\",\"spread\":\"Spread\",\"total\":\"Total\",\"final\":\"FINAL\",\"postponed\":\"POSTPONED\",\"game\":\"Game\",\"bestOf\":\"Best of\",\"set\":\"Set\",\"firstHalf\":\"1st Half\",\"secondHalf\":\"2nd Half\",\"h1Moneyline\":\"1H Moneyline\",\"h1Spreads\":\"1H Spreads\",\"h1Totals\":\"1H Totals\",\"h2Moneyline\":\"2H Moneyline\",\"h2Spreads\":\"2H Spreads\",\"h2Totals\":\"2H Totals\",\"firstInningsTotals\":\"1st Innings Totals (6 overs)\",\"secondInningsTotals\":\"2nd Innings Totals (6 overs)\",\"gameLines\":\"Game Lines\",\"teamTotals\":\"Team Totals\",\"exactMargin\":\"Exact Margin\",\"gameProps\":\"Game Props\",\"touchdowns\":\"Touchdowns\",\"passing\":\"Passing\",\"rushing\":\"Rushing\",\"receiving\":\"Receiving\",\"points\":\"Points\",\"assists\":\"Assists\",\"rebounds\":\"Rebounds\",\"threes\":\"Threes\",\"goalscorers\":\"Goalscorers\",\"exactScore\":\"Exact Score\",\"halftime\":\"Halves\",\"corners\":\"Corners\",\"mainLines\":\"Main Lines\",\"sets\":\"Sets\",\"setNumber\":\"Set {number}\",\"winner\":\"Winner\",\"totalGames\":\"Total Games\",\"players\":\"Players\",\"goals\":\"Goals\",\"fiveInnings\":\"5 Innings\",\"innings\":\"Innings\",\"homeRuns\":\"Home Runs\",\"strikeouts\":\"Strikeouts\",\"shots\":\"Shots\",\"types\":{\"combat\":\"Combat\",\"soccer\":\"Soccer\",\"football\":\"Football\",\"basketball\":\"Basketball\",\"baseball\":\"Baseball\",\"hockey\":\"Hockey\",\"tennis\":\"Tennis\",\"golf\":\"Golf\",\"cycling\":\"Cycling\",\"cricket\":\"Cricket\",\"rugby\":\"Rugby\",\"darts\":\"Darts\",\"esports\":\"Esports\",\"chess\":\"Chess\",\"pickleball\":\"Pickleball\",\"motorsports\":\"Motorsports\",\"poker\":\"Poker\",\"winterOlympics\":\"Winter Games\",\"tableTennis\":\"Table Tennis\",\"volleyball\":\"Volleyball\",\"lacrosse\":\"Lacrosse\",\"rodeo\":\"Rodeo\",\"handball\":\"Handball\",\"aussieRules\":\"Aussie Rules\",\"surfing\":\"Surfing\",\"skateboarding\":\"Skateboarding\",\"discGolf\":\"Disc Golf\"},\"esportsFaq\":{\"title\":\"Frequently Asked Questions\",\"general\":{\"q1\":\"What is esports trading on Polymarket?\",\"a1\":\"Polymarket lets you trade on the outcomes of professional esports matches across titles like CS2, League of Legends, Dota 2, Valorant, and more. Buy shares in the team you think will win — if they do, your shares pay out at $1 each.\",\"q2\":\"Which esports titles are available?\",\"a2\":\"Polymarket covers major competitive titles including Counter-Strike 2, League of Legends, Dota 2, Valorant, Call of Duty, Overwatch, Mobile Legends, Rainbow Six Siege, Rocket League, Honor of Kings, StarCraft II, and more. New titles and tournaments are added regularly.\",\"q3\":\"How do esports markets work?\",\"a3\":\"Each match has a moneyline market where you can buy shares in either team. Prices reflect the community's estimated probability of each team winning. You can also trade on map handicaps, total maps, and individual map winners when available.\",\"q4\":\"Can I watch the matches while trading?\",\"a4\":\"Yes. When a live stream is available for a match, you'll see a \\\"Watch Stream\\\" button on the scoreboard. Clicking it opens a floating video player that you can drag, resize, and keep open while you continue browsing and trading.\",\"q5\":\"How are esports markets resolved?\",\"a5\":\"Markets are resolved based on official match results from tournament organizers. Once a match concludes, winning shares pay out at $1 and losing shares go to $0. Results are typically confirmed within minutes of a match ending.\",\"q6\":\"What is Polymarket?\",\"a6\":\"Polymarket is the world's largest prediction market platform. It lets you trade on the outcomes of real-world events — from politics and sports to crypto and culture — using real money. Prices reflect the crowd's real-time probability estimates for each outcome.\"},\"league\":{\"q1\":\"What is {league} trading on Polymarket?\",\"a1\":\"Polymarket lets you trade on the outcomes of professional {league} matches. Buy shares in the team you think will win — if they do, your shares pay out at $1 each. You can trade on live and upcoming {league} matches from major tournaments worldwide.\",\"q2\":\"What {league} markets are available?\",\"a2\":\"Each {league} match typically has a moneyline market where you pick the winner. Depending on the match format, you may also find map handicaps, total maps, and individual map or game winner markets.\",\"q3\":\"How do {league} odds work on Polymarket?\",\"a3\":\"Odds are expressed as share prices between 0¢ and 99¢. A team priced at 65¢ means the market gives them roughly a 65% chance of winning. If you buy at 65¢ and they win, you earn 35¢ profit per share. Prices update in real time as traders buy and sell.\",\"q4\":\"Can I watch {league} matches while trading?\",\"a4\":\"Yes. When a live stream is available, you'll see a \\\"Watch Stream\\\" button on the match scoreboard. It opens a floating video player you can drag and resize, so you can watch the action while browsing other markets or placing trades.\",\"q5\":\"How are {league} markets resolved?\",\"a5\":\"Markets are resolved based on official results from tournament organizers. Once a match concludes, winning shares pay out at $1 and losing shares go to $0. Results are typically confirmed within minutes of a match ending.\",\"q6\":\"What is Polymarket?\",\"a6\":\"Polymarket is the world's largest prediction market platform. It lets you trade on the outcomes of real-world events — from politics and sports to crypto and culture — using real money. Prices reflect the crowd's real-time probability estimates for each outcome.\"},\"esportsTeam\":{\"q1\":\"What {game} markets are available for {team} on Polymarket?\",\"a1\":\"Polymarket currently hosts {marketCount} active markets for {team} ({teamAbbr}) with over ${volume} in total trading volume. You can trade on match winners, handicaps, totals, and various prop markets across all of their competitive fixtures. Each market is priced as an implied probability — for example, a price of 65¢ means traders collectively believe there is a 65% chance of that outcome. New markets are added as upcoming {team} matches are announced.\",\"q2\":\"Who is on {team}'s current roster?\",\"a2\":\"{team}'s active {game} roster currently has {rosterCount} players: {rosterNames}. Roster changes — including substitutions, stand-ins, and player transfers — can significantly affect market odds. This page updates automatically to reflect the latest official roster, so you can see exactly who is competing before trading on any {team} market.\",\"q3\":\"What is {team}'s recent match record and win rate?\",\"a3\":\"Based on their recent competitive matches, {team} has a {winRate}% win rate with a record of {matchRecord}. You can view their full match history on this page, including scores, opponents, and tournament context. Recent form is one of the strongest factors influencing market odds — a team on a winning streak will typically see higher implied probabilities, while a losing run often shifts odds against them.\",\"q4\":\"How do {game} prediction markets work on Polymarket?\",\"a4\":\"Each {game} market on Polymarket is structured as a yes/no question — for example, \\\"Will {team} win?\\\" You buy shares in \\\"Yes\\\" or \\\"No\\\" at the current market price, which reflects the crowd-sourced implied probability. If your side is correct when the match concludes, your shares pay out $1 each. If incorrect, they pay $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before the match ends to lock in a profit or cut a loss. Prices update in real-time as traders react to news like roster changes, patch updates, and tournament developments.\",\"q5\":\"How are {team} markets resolved?\",\"a5\":\"All {team} markets resolve based on the official match results as reported by the tournament organizer. Series winner markets resolve when the final game of the series concludes. Prop markets resolve based on in-game data from the official broadcast or tournament data provider. You can check the \\\"Rules\\\" tab on any individual market page to see the exact resolution criteria and sources.\",\"q6\":\"Why are Polymarket's {game} odds considered reliable?\",\"a6\":\"Polymarket odds are set by real traders putting real money behind their positions, which tends to produce well-calibrated probabilities. With over ${volume} traded on {team} markets alone, these prices aggregate the collective knowledge of participants who follow {game} closely — factoring in team form, roster changes, meta shifts, and head-to-head records. Prediction markets have a strong track record of accuracy, often outperforming traditional bookmakers by reflecting the latest information as it emerges. For the latest stats, visit the accuracy page on Polymarket.\",\"q7\":\"What factors influence {team}'s market odds?\",\"a7\":\"Several factors can move {team}'s odds on Polymarket. The most impactful include recent match results and form, roster changes such as substitutions or transfers, tournament stage (group stage vs. playoffs), head-to-head history against specific opponents, and meta or patch changes that may favor or disadvantage their playstyle. Traders incorporate all of these variables into the price, which is why odds can shift rapidly when new information becomes available.\",\"q8\":\"Can I follow {team} odds and results without trading?\",\"a8\":\"Yes. This page is a free resource for tracking {team}'s match results, current roster, win rate, and live market odds — no account or trade required. You can monitor how odds shift in real-time as a way to gauge market sentiment on {team}'s upcoming matches. If you decide to trade later, you can sign up and fund your account at any time.\",\"q9\":\"How do I start trading on {team} matches?\",\"a9\":\"Sign up for a free Polymarket account and fund it using crypto, a credit or debit card, or a bank transfer. Then return to this page, choose any active {team} market, select the side you want to trade, enter your amount, and confirm. Your position will be visible in your portfolio, and you can sell at any time before the market resolves.\",\"q10\":\"What is Polymarket?\",\"a10\":\"Polymarket is the world's largest prediction market, where you can stay informed and trade on real-world events. Traders buy and sell shares on outcomes across politics, sports, crypto, finance, tech, culture, and esports — including {game} matches for teams like {team}. Prices reflect real-time, crowd-sourced probabilities backed by real money, offering a transparent, market-driven alternative to traditional odds sources. Visit polymarket.com to explore all available markets.\"},\"sportsTeam\":{\"q1\":\"What {game} markets are available for {team} on Polymarket?\",\"a1\":\"Polymarket currently hosts {marketCount} active markets for {team} ({teamAbbr}) with over ${volume} in total trading volume. You can trade on game winners (moneyline), spreads, totals (over/under), and other markets across all of their upcoming games. Each market is priced as an implied probability — for example, a price of 65¢ means traders collectively believe there is a 65% chance of that outcome. New markets are added as {team}'s schedule progresses.\",\"q2\":\"What is {team}'s recent record and win rate?\",\"a2\":\"Based on their recent games, {team} has a {winRate}% win rate with a record of {matchRecord}. You can view their full game-by-game results on this page, including scores, opponents, and context. Recent form is one of the strongest factors influencing market odds — a team on a winning streak will typically see higher implied probabilities, while a losing run often shifts odds against them.\",\"q3\":\"How do {game} prediction markets work on Polymarket?\",\"a3\":\"Each {game} market on Polymarket is structured as a yes/no question — for example, \\\"Will {team} win?\\\" You buy shares in \\\"Yes\\\" or \\\"No\\\" at the current market price, which reflects the crowd-sourced implied probability. If your side is correct when the game concludes, your shares pay out $1 each. If incorrect, they pay $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before the game ends to lock in a profit or cut a loss. Prices update in real-time as traders react to news like injury reports, lineup changes, and other developments.\",\"q4\":\"How are {team} markets resolved?\",\"a4\":\"All {team} markets resolve based on official game results, including overtime or extra periods where applicable. Moneyline markets resolve based on the final result of the game. Spread markets resolve based on the final margin relative to the posted line. Totals (over/under) resolve based on the combined final score. You can check the Rules on any individual market page to see the exact resolution criteria, including how postponements or cancellations are handled.\",\"q5\":\"Why are Polymarket's {game} odds considered reliable?\",\"a5\":\"Polymarket odds are set by real traders putting real money behind their positions, which tends to produce well-calibrated probabilities. With over ${volume} traded on {team} markets alone, these prices aggregate the collective knowledge of participants who follow {game} closely — factoring in team form, injuries, schedule strength, and head-to-head records. Prediction markets have a strong track record of accuracy, often outperforming traditional sources by reflecting the latest information as it emerges. Visit the accuracy page on Polymarket for the latest accuracy metrics across different time periods.\",\"q6\":\"What factors influence {team}'s market odds?\",\"a6\":\"Several factors can move {team}'s odds on Polymarket. The most impactful include recent results and form, injury reports and lineup changes, schedule context (regular season vs. playoffs), head-to-head history against specific opponents, and home vs. away performance. Traders incorporate all of these variables into the price, which is why odds can shift rapidly when new information like a key player being ruled out becomes available.\",\"q7\":\"Can I follow {team} odds and results without trading?\",\"a7\":\"Yes. This page is a free resource for tracking {team}'s game results, win rate, and live market odds — no account or trade required. You can monitor how odds shift in real-time as a way to gauge market sentiment on {team}'s upcoming games. If you decide to trade later, you can sign up and fund your account at any time.\",\"q8\":\"How do I start trading on {team} games?\",\"a8\":\"Sign up for a free Polymarket account and fund it using crypto, a credit or debit card, or a bank transfer. Then return to this page, choose any active {team} market, select the side you want to trade, enter your amount, and confirm. Your position will be visible in your portfolio, and you can sell at any time before the market resolves.\",\"q9\":\"What does a price of 65¢ for \\\"{teamAbbr}\\\" mean?\",\"a9\":\"On Polymarket, the price of each side in a market represents the market's implied probability. A price of 65¢ for {teamAbbr} on the moneyline means traders collectively believe there is roughly a 65% chance that {team} will win that game. If you buy {teamAbbr} shares at 65¢ and they win, you receive $1 per share — a profit of 35¢ per share. If they lose, those shares are worth $0. Prices shift in real-time as new information emerges and traders update their positions.\",\"q10\":\"What is Polymarket?\",\"a10\":\"Polymarket is the world's largest prediction market, where you can stay informed and trade on real-world events. Traders buy and sell shares on outcomes across politics, sports, crypto, finance, tech, culture, and esports — including {game} games for teams like {team}. Prices reflect real-time, crowd-sourced probabilities backed by real money, offering a transparent, market-driven alternative to traditional odds sources. Visit polymarket.com to explore all available markets.\"},\"matchSportsTeam\":{\"q1\":\"What {game} markets are available for {team} on Polymarket?\",\"a1\":\"Polymarket currently hosts {marketCount} active markets for {team} ({teamAbbr}) with over ${volume} in total trading volume. You can trade on match winners (moneyline), spreads, totals (over/under), and other markets across all of their upcoming matches. Each market is priced as an implied probability — for example, a price of 65¢ means traders collectively believe there is a 65% chance of that outcome. New markets are added as {team}'s schedule progresses.\",\"q2\":\"What is {team}'s recent record and win rate?\",\"a2\":\"Based on their recent matches, {team} has a {winRate}% win rate with a record of {matchRecord}. You can view their full match-by-match results on this page, including scores, opponents, and context. Recent form is one of the strongest factors influencing market odds — a team on a winning streak will typically see higher implied probabilities, while a losing run often shifts odds against them.\",\"q3\":\"How do {game} prediction markets work on Polymarket?\",\"a3\":\"Each {game} market on Polymarket is structured as a yes/no question — for example, \\\"Will {team} win?\\\" You buy shares in \\\"Yes\\\" or \\\"No\\\" at the current market price, which reflects the crowd-sourced implied probability. If your side is correct when the match concludes, your shares pay out $1 each. If incorrect, they pay $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before the match ends to lock in a profit or cut a loss. Prices update in real-time as traders react to news like injury reports, lineup changes, and other developments.\",\"q4\":\"How are {team} markets resolved?\",\"a4\":\"All {team} markets resolve based on official match results, including overtime or extra periods where applicable. Moneyline markets resolve based on the final result of the match. Spread markets resolve based on the final margin relative to the posted line. Totals (over/under) resolve based on the combined final score. You can check the Rules on any individual market page to see the exact resolution criteria, including how postponements or cancellations are handled.\",\"q5\":\"Why are Polymarket's {game} odds considered reliable?\",\"a5\":\"Polymarket odds are set by real traders putting real money behind their positions, which tends to produce well-calibrated probabilities. With over ${volume} traded on {team} markets alone, these prices aggregate the collective knowledge of participants who follow {game} closely — factoring in team form, injuries, schedule strength, and head-to-head records. Prediction markets have a strong track record of accuracy, often outperforming traditional sources by reflecting the latest information as it emerges. Visit the accuracy page on Polymarket for the latest accuracy metrics across different time periods.\",\"q6\":\"What factors influence {team}'s market odds?\",\"a6\":\"Several factors can move {team}'s odds on Polymarket. The most impactful include recent results and form, injury reports and lineup changes, schedule context (regular season vs. playoffs), head-to-head history against specific opponents, and home vs. away performance. Traders incorporate all of these variables into the price, which is why odds can shift rapidly when new information like a key player being ruled out becomes available.\",\"q7\":\"Can I follow {team} odds and results without trading?\",\"a7\":\"Yes. This page is a free resource for tracking {team}'s match results, win rate, and live market odds — no account or trade required. You can monitor how odds shift in real-time as a way to gauge market sentiment on {team}'s upcoming matches. If you decide to trade later, you can sign up and fund your account at any time.\",\"q8\":\"How do I start trading on {team} matches?\",\"a8\":\"Sign up for a free Polymarket account and fund it using crypto, a credit or debit card, or a bank transfer. Then return to this page, choose any active {team} market, select the side you want to trade, enter your amount, and confirm. Your position will be visible in your portfolio, and you can sell at any time before the market resolves.\",\"q9\":\"What does a price of 65¢ for \\\"{teamAbbr}\\\" mean?\",\"a9\":\"On Polymarket, the price of each side in a market represents the market's implied probability. A price of 65¢ for {teamAbbr} on the moneyline means traders collectively believe there is roughly a 65% chance that {team} will win that match. If you buy {teamAbbr} shares at 65¢ and they win, you receive $1 per share — a profit of 35¢ per share. If they lose, those shares are worth $0. Prices shift in real-time as new information emerges and traders update their positions.\",\"q10\":\"What is Polymarket?\",\"a10\":\"Polymarket is the world's largest prediction market, where you can stay informed and trade on real-world events. Traders buy and sell shares on outcomes across politics, sports, crypto, finance, tech, culture, and esports — including {game} matches for teams like {team}. Prices reflect real-time, crowd-sourced probabilities backed by real money, offering a transparent, market-driven alternative to traditional odds sources. Visit polymarket.com to explore all available markets.\"}},\"teams\":{\"standings\":\"Standings\",\"playerStats\":\"Player Stats\",\"teamStats\":\"Team Stats\",\"hitters\":\"Hitters\",\"pitchers\":\"Pitchers\",\"skaters\":\"Skaters\",\"goalies\":\"Goalies\",\"playerRoster\":\"Player Roster\",\"active\":\"Active\",\"inactiveFormer\":\"Inactive / Former\",\"player\":\"Player\",\"name\":\"Name\",\"role\":\"Role\",\"country\":\"Country\",\"matchHistory\":\"Match History\",\"date\":\"Date\",\"match\":\"Match\",\"score\":\"Score\",\"tournament\":\"Tournament\",\"upcomingMatches\":\"Upcoming Matches\",\"moreMatches\":\"More {game} Matches\",\"upcomingGames\":\"Upcoming Games\",\"moreGames\":\"More {game} Games\",\"allMarkets\":\"All Markets\",\"showAllMarkets\":\"Show all {count} markets\",\"marketsCount\":\"{count} markets\",\"tradingVolume\":\"Trading Volume\",\"activeMarkets\":\"Active Markets\",\"winRate\":\"Win Rate\",\"matchRecord\":\"Record\",\"aboutTeam\":\"About {team}\",\"readMore\":\"READ MORE\",\"playersCount\":\"{count} players\",\"aboutParagraph1\":\"{team} ({abbreviation}) is a professional esports organization competing in {game}, based in {location}. {rosterLine}\",\"aboutParagraph2\":\"On Polymarket, you can trade on {team} match outcomes, map handicaps, total maps, and game-specific props across all their competitive fixtures. {team} currently has {marketCount} active markets with over ${volume} in total trading volume on the platform. Their recent competitive record stands at {matchRecord} for a {winRate}% win rate.\",\"aboutParagraph3\":\"Polymarket's prediction markets aggregate real-time odds driven by crowd-sourced data from informed traders who understand team form, meta shifts, and roster dynamics. These odds often outperform traditional bookmakers by reflecting the latest information as it emerges. Each market resolves based on official match results from trusted sources.\",\"aboutParagraph4\":\"Track {team}'s latest odds, predictions, and match results on this page. Whether you're following their competitive journey or looking to profit from your {game} knowledge, Polymarket offers the most comprehensive esports prediction markets available.\",\"rosterLine\":\"The current roster features {playerNames}.\",\"nationality\":\"Nationality\",\"weightClass\":\"Weight Class\",\"fighter\":{\"profile\":\"Fighter Profile\",\"nickname\":\"Nickname\",\"height\":\"Height\",\"reach\":\"Reach\",\"weight\":\"Weight\",\"age\":\"Age\"},\"sportsAboutParagraph1\":\"{team} ({abbreviation}) is a professional team competing in {game}. {rosterLine}\",\"sportsAboutParagraph2\":\"On Polymarket, you can trade on {team} game outcomes including moneyline, spreads, totals (over/under), and player props across all their scheduled games. {team} currently has {marketCount} active markets with over ${volume} in total trading volume on the platform. Their current record stands at {matchRecord} for a {winRate}% win rate.\",\"sportsAboutParagraph3\":\"Polymarket's prediction markets aggregate real-time odds driven by crowd-sourced data from informed traders who understand team form, injuries, schedule strength, and matchup history. These odds often outperform traditional sportsbooks by reflecting the latest information as it emerges. Each market resolves based on official game results.\",\"sportsAboutParagraph4\":\"Track {team}'s latest odds, predictions, and game results on this page. Whether you're following their season or looking to profit from your {game} knowledge, Polymarket offers the most comprehensive sports prediction markets available.\",\"individualAboutParagraph1\":\"{team} ({abbreviation}) is a professional athlete competing in {game}.\",\"individualAboutParagraph2\":\"On Polymarket, you can trade on {team}'s match outcomes and related props across all their upcoming competitions. {team} currently has {marketCount} active markets with over ${volume} in total trading volume on the platform.\",\"individualAboutParagraph3\":\"Polymarket's prediction markets aggregate real-time odds driven by crowd-sourced data from informed traders who understand athlete form, conditioning, and head-to-head matchup history. These odds often outperform traditional sources by reflecting the latest information as it emerges. Each market resolves based on official results.\",\"individualAboutParagraph4\":\"Track {team}'s latest odds, predictions, and results on this page. Whether you're following their career or looking to profit from your {game} knowledge, Polymarket offers the most comprehensive prediction markets available.\",\"matchSportsAboutParagraph1\":\"{team} ({abbreviation}) is a professional team competing in {game}. {rosterLine}\",\"matchSportsAboutParagraph2\":\"On Polymarket, you can trade on {team} match outcomes including moneyline, spreads, totals (over/under), and player props across all their scheduled matches. {team} currently has {marketCount} active markets with over ${volume} in total trading volume on the platform. Their current record stands at {matchRecord} for a {winRate}% win rate.\",\"matchSportsAboutParagraph3\":\"Polymarket's prediction markets aggregate real-time odds driven by crowd-sourced data from informed traders who understand team form, injuries, schedule strength, and matchup history. These odds often outperform traditional sportsbooks by reflecting the latest information as it emerges. Each market resolves based on official match results.\",\"matchSportsAboutParagraph4\":\"Track {team}'s latest odds, predictions, and match results on this page. Whether you're following their season or looking to profit from your {game} knowledge, Polymarket offers the most comprehensive sports prediction markets available.\"}},\"sportsFaq\":{\"whatIsMarket\":{\"q\":\"What is the “{title}” prediction market?\",\"a\":\"The “{title}” market on Polymarket lets you trade on the outcome of the {leagueName} game between the {awayTeamFullName} and the {homeTeamFullName}, scheduled for {gameDate} at {gameTime} ET. The primary market is the moneyline — which team will win the game — where {favoredTeam} is currently priced at {favoredTeamPrice}¢ ({favoredTeamPrice}% implied probability) and {underdogTeam} at {underdogTeamPrice}¢ ({underdogTeamPrice}%). Beyond the moneyline, sports markets on Polymarket may feature spreads, totals (over/under), and player props, giving you multiple ways to trade on this game. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. Shares in the correct outcome pay out $1 each when the market resolves after the game ends.\"},\"activity\":{\"q\":\"How much trading activity has “{title}” generated on Polymarket?\",\"a\":\"As of now, the “{title}” market has generated {totalVolume} in total trading volume across all market types (moneyline, spreads, totals, and player props). This volume reflects active engagement from the Polymarket trading community, and a deeper pool of traders generally means more informative, reliable odds. You can track live price movements and trade on any market directly on this page.\"},\"howToTrade\":{\"q\":\"How do I trade on “{title}”?\",\"a\":\"To trade on “{title},” start by choosing the market type you want to trade: Moneyline (which team wins), Spreads (margin of victory), Totals (combined score over/under), or Player Props (individual player stat lines). Each market shows the current price for each side — for example, the moneyline shows {awayTeamAbbreviation} at {awayTeamPrice}¢ and {homeTeamAbbreviation} at {homeTeamPrice}¢. Select the side you want to trade, choose Buy to take a position or Sell to close an existing one, enter your amount, and click Trade. If your chosen side is correct when the game ends and the market resolves, your shares pay out $1 each. If it’s incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before the game ends to lock in a profit or cut a loss.\"},\"currentOdds\":{\"q\":\"What are the current odds for “{title}”?\",\"a\":\"The current moneyline odds for “{title}” show {favoredTeamFullName} at {favoredTeamPrice}¢ ({favoredTeamPrice}% implied probability) and {underdogTeamFullName} at {underdogTeamPrice}¢ ({underdogTeamPrice}%). All odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, reflecting the latest collective view of how this game will play out. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as game time approaches.\"},\"resolution\":{\"q\":\"How will “{title}” be resolved?\",\"a\":\"The “{title}” market resolves based on the official final score of the {leagueName} game as reported by {leagueName}’s official results, including overtime if applicable. Moneyline markets resolve to the team that wins the game. Spread markets resolve based on the final margin of victory relative to the posted line. Totals (over/under) markets resolve based on the combined final score of both teams. Player prop markets resolve based on official box score statistics. If the game is postponed or canceled, the market resolution rules (available in the Rules section on this page) specify how that scenario is handled. We recommend reviewing the full resolution criteria before trading.\"},\"followWithout\":{\"q\":\"Can I follow “{title}” without placing a trade?\",\"a\":\"Yes. You don’t need to trade to stay informed. This page serves as a live odds tracker for the {awayTeamFullName} vs. {homeTeamFullName} game. The moneyline, spread, totals, and player prop odds all update in real-time as new trades come in. You can use the chart to track line movement as game time approaches — shifts in the odds often signal new information like injury updates, lineup changes, or sharp action from big traders. Bookmark this page, check the comments section to see what other traders are saying, and use the time-range filters on the chart to review how the odds have shifted. It’s a free, real-time window into what the market expects.\"},\"reliability\":{\"q\":\"Why are Polymarket’s odds for “{title}” considered reliable?\",\"schemaA\":\"Polymarket odds are set by real traders putting real money behind their beliefs, which tends to produce well-calibrated probabilities. With {totalVolume} traded on “{title},” these prices aggregate the collective knowledge and conviction of active participants — similar to how traditional sportsbooks reflect sharp and public money, but in an open, transparent market anyone can participate in. Prediction markets have a strong track record of accuracy, especially as events approach their resolution. Polymarket’s overall one-month accuracy score is {accuracyScore}. For the latest stats, visit the accuracy page on Polymarket.\",\"beforeLink\":\"Polymarket odds are set by real traders putting real money behind their beliefs, which tends to produce well-calibrated probabilities. With {totalVolume} traded on “{title},” these prices aggregate the collective knowledge and conviction of active participants — similar to how traditional sportsbooks reflect sharp and public money, but in an open, transparent market anyone can participate in. Prediction markets have a strong track record of accuracy, especially as events approach their resolution. Polymarket’s overall one-month accuracy score is {accuracyScore}. For the latest stats, visit the \",\"afterLink\":\" on Polymarket.\",\"linkText\":\"accuracy page\"},\"getStarted\":{\"q\":\"How do I start trading on “{title}”?\",\"a\":\"To place your first trade on “{title},” sign up for a free Polymarket account and fund it using crypto, a credit or debit card, or a bank transfer. Once your account is funded, return to this page and choose a market type — Moneyline, Spreads, Totals, or Player Props — select the side you want to trade (e.g., {awayTeamAbbreviation} or {homeTeamAbbreviation} on the moneyline), enter your amount, and click Trade. If you’re new to prediction markets, click the “How it works” link at the top of any Polymarket page for a step-by-step walkthrough.\"},\"priceMeaning\":{\"q\":\"What does a price of {favoredTeamPrice}¢ for “{favoredTeamAbbreviation}” mean?\",\"a\":\"On Polymarket, the price of each side in a market represents the market’s implied probability. A price of {favoredTeamPrice}¢ for {favoredTeamAbbreviation} on the moneyline means traders collectively believe there is roughly a {favoredTeamPrice}% chance that the {favoredTeamFullName} will win this game. If you buy {favoredTeamAbbreviation} shares at {favoredTeamPrice}¢ and they win, you receive $1 per share — a profit of {profitPerShare}¢ per share. If they lose, those shares are worth $0. The same logic applies to spreads, totals, and player props: a lower price means a higher potential payout but a lower implied probability of being correct.\"},\"marketClose\":{\"q\":\"When does the “{title}” market close?\",\"a\":\"The “{title}” game is scheduled for {gameDate} at {gameTime} ET. Trading remains open and odds will continue to shift as new information emerges leading up to the game. The market resolves once the game concludes and the official final score is confirmed. The exact resolution timing depends on when the game ends, including overtime if applicable.\"},\"tradersSaying\":{\"q\":\"What are traders saying about “{title}”?\",\"activeA\":\"The “{title}” market has {commentCountDisplay} comments where traders share their analysis, debate game outcomes, and discuss breaking developments like injury updates and lineup changes. Scroll down to the comments section to join the conversation. You can also check the Top Holders tab to see how the market’s biggest traders are positioned, or view the Activity tab for a real-time feed of trades being placed.\",\"newA\":\"The “{title}” market’s comments section is open for discussion — be the first to share your analysis on this game. Scroll down to the comments section to join the conversation. You can also check the Top Holders tab to see how the market’s biggest traders are positioned, or view the Activity tab for a real-time feed of trades being placed.\"},\"whatIsPolymarket\":{\"q\":\"What is Polymarket?\",\"a\":\"Polymarket is the world’s largest prediction market, where you can stay informed and trade on real-world events. Traders buy and sell shares on outcomes across politics, sports, crypto, finance, tech, and culture — including {leagueName} events and games. Prices reflect real-time, crowd-sourced probabilities backed by real money, offering a transparent, market-driven alternative to traditional odds sources. Whether you’re a seasoned sports trader or just getting started, Polymarket lets you put your knowledge to work.\"}},\"esportsEventFaq\":{\"whatIsMarket\":{\"q\":\"What is the “{title}” prediction market?\",\"a\":\"The “{title}” market on Polymarket lets you trade on the outcome of the {gameTitle} match between {teamA} and {teamB} in the {tournamentName}, scheduled for {gameDate} at {gameTime} ET. This is a Best of {boCount} series. The primary market is the series moneyline — which team will win the match — where {teamA} is currently priced at {teamAPrice}¢ ({teamAPrice}% implied probability) and {teamB} at {teamBPrice}¢ ({teamBPrice}%). Beyond the series moneyline, esports markets on Polymarket may feature individual {unit} winners, {unit} handicaps, and total {unitPlural}, giving you multiple ways to trade on this match. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. Shares in the correct outcome pay out $1 each when the market resolves after the match ends.\",\"aNoBoCount\":\"The “{title}” market on Polymarket lets you trade on the outcome of the {gameTitle} match between {teamA} and {teamB} in the {tournamentName}, scheduled for {gameDate} at {gameTime} ET. The primary market is the series moneyline — which team will win the match — where {teamA} is currently priced at {teamAPrice}¢ ({teamAPrice}% implied probability) and {teamB} at {teamBPrice}¢ ({teamBPrice}%). Beyond the series moneyline, esports markets on Polymarket may feature individual {unit} winners, {unit} handicaps, and total {unitPlural}, giving you multiple ways to trade on this match. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. Shares in the correct outcome pay out $1 each when the market resolves after the match ends.\"},\"activity\":{\"q\":\"How much trading activity has “{title}” generated on Polymarket?\",\"a\":\"As of now, the “{title}” market has generated {totalVolume} in total trading volume across all market types (series moneyline, individual {unit} winners, {unit} handicaps, and total {unitPlural}). This volume reflects active engagement from the Polymarket trading community, and a deeper pool of traders generally means more informative, reliable odds. You can track live price movements and trade on any market directly on this page.\"},\"howToTrade\":{\"q\":\"How do I trade on “{title}”?\",\"a\":\"To trade on “{title},” start by choosing the market type you want to trade: Series Moneyline (which team wins the match), Individual {unitCap} Winners (who wins a specific {unit} in the series), {unitCap} Handicap ({unit}-win margin), or Total {unitPluralCap} (over/under on the number of {unitPlural} played). Each market shows the current price for each side — for example, the moneyline shows {teamAAbbreviation} at {teamAPrice}¢ and {teamBAbbreviation} at {teamBPrice}¢. Select the side you want to trade, choose Buy to take a position or Sell to close an existing one, enter your amount, and click Trade. If your chosen side is correct when the match ends and the market resolves, your shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before the match ends to lock in a profit or cut a loss.\"},\"currentOdds\":{\"q\":\"What are the current odds for “{title}”?\",\"a\":\"The current series moneyline odds for “{title}” show {teamA} at {teamAPrice}¢ ({teamAPrice}% implied probability) and {teamB} at {teamBPrice}¢ ({teamBPrice}%). All odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, reflecting the latest collective view of how this match will play out. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as match time approaches.\"},\"followWithout\":{\"q\":\"Can I follow “{title}” without placing a trade?\",\"a\":\"Yes. You don't need to trade to stay informed. This page serves as a live odds tracker for the {teamA} vs. {teamB} match. The series moneyline, individual {unit} winner, {unit} handicap, and total {unitPlural} odds all update in real-time as new trades come in. You can use the chart to track line movement as match time approaches — shifts in the odds often signal new information like roster changes, recent form, or sharp action from big traders. Check out Head to Head, Form Guide, and Map Winrate on certain matchups for deeper data and context. Bookmark this page, check the comments section to see what other traders are saying, and use the time-range filters on the chart to review how the odds have shifted. It's a free, real-time window into what the market expects.\"},\"reliability\":{\"q\":\"Why are Polymarket's odds for “{title}” considered reliable?\",\"schemaA\":\"Polymarket odds are set by real traders putting real money behind their beliefs, which tends to produce well-calibrated probabilities. With {totalVolume} traded on “{title},” these prices aggregate the collective knowledge and conviction of active participants — similar to how traditional sportsbooks reflect sharp and public money, but in an open, transparent market anyone can participate in. Prediction markets have a strong track record of accuracy, especially as events approach their resolution. For the latest stats, visit the accuracy page on Polymarket.\",\"beforeLink\":\"Polymarket odds are set by real traders putting real money behind their beliefs, which tends to produce well-calibrated probabilities. With {totalVolume} traded on “{title},” these prices aggregate the collective knowledge and conviction of active participants — similar to how traditional sportsbooks reflect sharp and public money, but in an open, transparent market anyone can participate in. Prediction markets have a strong track record of accuracy, especially as events approach their resolution. For the latest stats, visit the \",\"afterLink\":\" on Polymarket.\",\"linkText\":\"accuracy page\"},\"getStarted\":{\"q\":\"How do I start trading on “{title}”?\",\"a\":\"To place your first trade on “{title},” sign up for a free Polymarket account and fund it using crypto, a credit or debit card, or a bank transfer. Once your account is funded, return to this page and choose a market type — Series Moneyline, Individual {unitCap} Winners, {unitCap} Handicap, or Total {unitPluralCap} — select the side you want to trade (e.g., {teamAAbbreviation} or {teamBAbbreviation} on the moneyline), enter your amount, and click Trade. If you're new to prediction markets, click the “How it works” link at the top of any Polymarket page for a step-by-step walkthrough.\"},\"priceMeaning\":{\"q\":\"What does a price of {teamAPrice}¢ for “{teamAAbbreviation}” mean?\",\"a\":\"On Polymarket, the price of each side in a market represents the market's implied probability. A price of {teamAPrice}¢ for {teamAAbbreviation} on the series moneyline means traders collectively believe there is roughly a {teamAPrice}% chance that {teamA} will win this match. If you buy {teamAAbbreviation} shares at {teamAPrice}¢ and they win, you receive $1 per share — a profit of {teamAPayout}¢ per share. If they lose, those shares are worth $0. The same logic applies to individual {unit} winners, {unit} handicaps, and total {unitPlural}: a lower price means a higher potential payout but a lower implied probability of being correct.\"},\"marketClose\":{\"q\":\"When does the “{title}” market close?\",\"a\":\"The “{title}” match is scheduled for {gameDate} at {gameTime} ET in the {tournamentName}. Trading remains open and odds will continue to shift as new information emerges leading up to the match. The market resolves once the series concludes and the official results are confirmed by the resolution source. The exact resolution timing depends on how many {unitPlural} are played in the Best of {boCount} series.\",\"aNoBoCount\":\"The “{title}” match is scheduled for {gameDate} at {gameTime} ET in the {tournamentName}. Trading remains open and odds will continue to shift as new information emerges leading up to the match. The market resolves once the series concludes and the official results are confirmed by the resolution source.\"},\"tradersSaying\":{\"q\":\"What are traders saying about “{title}”?\",\"activeA\":\"The “{title}” market has {commentCountDisplay} comments where traders share their analysis, debate match outcomes, and discuss breaking developments like roster changes and recent form. Scroll down to the comments section to join the conversation. You can also check the Top Holders tab to see how the market's biggest traders are positioned, or view the Activity tab for a real-time feed of trades being placed.\",\"newA\":\"The “{title}” market's comments section is open for discussion — be the first to share your analysis on this match. Scroll down to the comments section to join the conversation. You can also check the Top Holders tab to see how the market's biggest traders are positioned, or view the Activity tab for a real-time feed of trades being placed.\"},\"whatIsPolymarket\":{\"q\":\"What is Polymarket?\",\"a\":\"Polymarket is the world's largest prediction market, where you can stay informed and trade on real-world events. Traders buy and sell shares on outcomes across politics, sports, crypto, finance, tech, culture, and esports — including tournaments and matches across League of Legends, CS2, Valorant, Dota 2, and more. Prices reflect real-time, crowd-sourced probabilities backed by real money, offering a transparent, market-driven alternative to traditional odds sources. Whether you're a seasoned esports trader or just getting started, Polymarket lets you put your knowledge to work.\"}},\"upDownFaq\":{\"whatIsMarket\":{\"q\":\"What is the \\\"{title}\\\" prediction market?\",\"a\":\"\\\"{title}\\\" is a {windowLabel} prediction market on Polymarket where traders buy and sell shares on whether {cryptoName}'s price will finish higher (\\\"Up\\\") or lower (\\\"Down\\\") than its opening price over the {windowLabel} window specified in the title. The current market probability is {leadingProbabilityDisplay} for \\\"{leadingOutcome}.\\\" A price of {leadingProbabilityDisplay} means the market collectively assigns a {leadingProbabilityDisplay} chance to that outcome. Prices update in real-time as traders react to live {cryptoName} price movements. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.\"},\"activity\":{\"q\":\"How much trading activity has \\\"{title}\\\" generated on Polymarket?\",\"highVolumeA\":\"As of today, \\\"{title}\\\" has generated {totalVolumeRounded} in total trading volume. {cryptoName} Up or Down markets attract active traders reacting to live price movements in real time — this level of activity helps ensure the current Up/Down odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live prices and place a trade directly on this page.\",\"lowVolumeA\":\"\\\"{title}\\\" is an active short-term market on Polymarket. Trading volume can accumulate quickly as the {windowLabel} window progresses — jump in early to help set the odds before this window closes.\"},\"howToTrade\":{\"q\":\"How do I trade on \\\"{title}\\\"?\",\"chainlinkA\":\"To trade on \\\"{title},\\\" decide whether you believe {cryptoName}'s price will finish above or below the opening \\\"Price to Beat\\\"{priceToBeatPart}{endTimePart}. Buy \\\"Up\\\" if you think the price will rise, or \\\"Down\\\" if you think it will fall. Enter your amount and click \\\"Trade.\\\" If your chosen outcome is correct at resolution, each share pays out $1.00. If incorrect, shares are worth $0. Because this market resolves in {windowDuration}, the window to exit your position before resolution is short — trade with that in mind.\",\"hourlyA\":\"To trade on \\\"{title},\\\" decide whether you believe {cryptoName}'s price will close higher (\\\"Up\\\") or lower (\\\"Down\\\") at the end of the {windowLabel} candle{startTimePart}. Buy \\\"Up\\\" if you think the close price will be higher than the open, or \\\"Down\\\" if you think it will be lower. Enter your amount and click \\\"Trade.\\\" If your chosen outcome is correct at resolution, each share pays out $1.00. If incorrect, shares are worth $0.\",\"dailyA\":\"To trade on \\\"{title},\\\" decide whether you believe {cryptoName}'s price at noon ET on {resolutionDate} will be higher (\\\"Up\\\") or lower (\\\"Down\\\") than {cryptoName}'s price at noon ET on {referenceDate}. Buy \\\"Up\\\" if you think the price will rise day-over-day, or \\\"Down\\\" if you think it will fall. Enter your amount and click \\\"Trade.\\\" If your chosen outcome is correct at resolution, each share pays out $1.00. If incorrect, shares are worth $0.\"},\"currentOdds\":{\"q\":\"What are the current odds for \\\"{title}\\\"?\",\"resolvedA\":\"This {windowLabel} window has closed and resolved. The final outcome was \\\"{outcome}.\\\" Use the time-range navigation bar at the top of this page to view adjacent windows or find the current live market.\",\"liveA\":\"The current probability for \\\"{title}\\\" is {leadingProbabilityDisplay} for \\\"{leadingOutcome},\\\" meaning the Polymarket crowd currently assigns a {leadingProbabilityDisplay} chance that {cryptoName}'s price will finish {upDown} over this {windowLabel} window. These odds update in real-time as traders react to live {cryptoName} price data. {urgency} Check back frequently or trade now before the window closes.\"},\"resolution\":{\"q\":\"How will \\\"{title}\\\" be resolved?\",\"chainlinkA\":\"The \\\"{title}\\\" market resolves based on whether {cryptoName}'s price at the end of the {windowLabel} window is greater than or equal to its price at the start of that window — if so, the outcome is \\\"Up\\\"; otherwise it is \\\"Down.\\\" The resolution source is the Chainlink {cryptoTicker}/USD data stream. You can review the complete resolution criteria and data source in the \\\"Rules\\\" section on this page. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and data sources that govern how this market is settled.\",\"hourlyA\":\"The \\\"{title}\\\" market resolves based on whether the closing price of the {cryptoName}/USDT 1-hour candle{startTimePart} on Binance is greater than or equal to its opening price — if so, the outcome is \\\"Up\\\"; otherwise it is \\\"Down.\\\" The resolution source is Binance ({cryptoTicker}/USDT). You can review the complete resolution criteria and data source in the \\\"Rules\\\" section on this page.\",\"dailyA\":\"The \\\"{title}\\\" market resolves based on a comparison of {cryptoName}'s price at noon ET on {resolutionDate} versus noon ET on {referenceDate}, using Binance {cryptoTicker}/USDT 1-minute candle close prices. If the {resolutionDate} noon price is higher, the outcome is \\\"Up\\\"; if lower, \\\"Down\\\"; if equal, the market resolves 50-50. You can review the complete resolution criteria and data source in the \\\"Rules\\\" section on this page.\"},\"followWithout\":{\"q\":\"Can I follow \\\"{title}\\\" without placing a trade?\",\"shortWindowA\":\"Yes. You don't need to trade to stay informed. Each \\\"{title}\\\" page shows the live \\\"Price to Beat\\\"{priceToBeatPart} ({cryptoName}'s opening reference price for this window), the current live {cryptoName} price, and real-time Up/Down probabilities. Because each market window lasts {windowDuration}, individual pages resolve quickly — use the time-range navigation features at the top of the page to jump between windows and track how odds evolved across multiple intervals. You can also view the Order Book and Activity tab for a real-time feed of trade flow.\",\"hourlyA\":\"Yes. You don't need to trade to stay informed. Each \\\"{title}\\\" page displays a live countdown timer showing how much time remains in the current hour, alongside real-time Up/Down probabilities. Use the time-range navigation features at the top of the page to browse past and upcoming hourly windows. You can also view the Order Book and Activity tab for a real-time feed of trade flow.\",\"dailyA\":\"Yes. You don't need to trade to stay informed. Each \\\"{title}\\\" page shows real-time Up/Down probabilities reflecting trader sentiment on whether {cryptoName} will be higher or lower at noon ET tomorrow versus today. Use the date navigation features at the top of the page to browse past and upcoming daily windows. You can also view the Order Book and Activity tab for a real-time feed of trade flow.\"},\"reliability\":{\"q\":\"Why are Polymarket's odds for \\\"{title}\\\" considered reliable?\",\"highVolumeSchemaA\":\"Polymarket odds are set by real traders putting real money behind their beliefs. With {totalVolumeRounded} traded on \\\"{title},\\\" the Up/Down probabilities reflect the collective judgment of traders watching {cryptoName}'s live price in real time. For {windowLabel} markets like this one, the odds represent an instantaneous crowd consensus on {cryptoName}'s price momentum — most meaningful as the window approaches its close, when traders have the most current price information available. For the latest stats on Polymarket's overall prediction accuracy, visit the accuracy page on Polymarket.\",\"highVolumeBeforeLink\":\"Polymarket odds are set by real traders putting real money behind their beliefs. With {totalVolumeRounded} traded on “{title},” the Up/Down probabilities reflect the collective judgment of traders watching {cryptoName}’s live price in real time. For {windowLabel} markets like this one, the odds represent an instantaneous crowd consensus on {cryptoName}’s price momentum — most meaningful as the window approaches its close, when traders have the most current price information available. For the latest stats on Polymarket’s overall prediction accuracy, visit the \",\"highVolumeAfterLink\":\" on Polymarket.\",\"lowVolumeSchemaA\":\"Polymarket odds are set by real traders putting real money behind their beliefs. \\\"{title}\\\" is still building its trading base for this window, so the current Up/Down probabilities may reflect only a small number of trades. As more participants enter before the window closes, the odds will become increasingly robust. For the latest stats on Polymarket's overall prediction accuracy, visit the accuracy page on Polymarket.\",\"lowVolumeBeforeLink\":\"Polymarket odds are set by real traders putting real money behind their beliefs. “{title}” is still building its trading base for this window, so the current Up/Down probabilities may reflect only a small number of trades. As more participants enter before the window closes, the odds will become increasingly robust. For the latest stats on Polymarket’s overall prediction accuracy, visit the \",\"lowVolumeAfterLink\":\" on Polymarket.\",\"linkText\":\"accuracy page\"},\"getStarted\":{\"q\":\"How do I start trading on \\\"{title}\\\"?\",\"a\":\"To place your first trade on \\\"{title},\\\" sign up for a free Polymarket account and fund it using crypto, a credit or debit card, or a bank transfer. Once your account is funded, return to this page — or navigate to the current active {windowLabel} window using the navigation bar at the top of the page — select \\\"Buy Up\\\" or \\\"Buy Down,\\\" enter your amount, and click \\\"Trade.\\\" If the window shown in the title has already closed, use the navigation bar to find the current live window. If you're new to prediction markets, click the \\\"How it works\\\" link at the top of any Polymarket page for a quick step-by-step walkthrough.\"},\"priceMeaning\":{\"q\":\"What does a price of {leadingProbabilityCents} for \\\"{leadingOutcome}\\\" mean?\",\"a\":\"On Polymarket, the price of each outcome represents the market's implied probability. A price of {leadingProbabilityCents} for \\\"{leadingOutcome}\\\" in the \\\"{title}\\\" market means traders collectively believe there is roughly a {leadingProbabilityDisplay} chance that {cryptoName}'s price will finish {upDown} over this {windowLabel} window. If you buy \\\"{leadingOutcome}\\\" shares at {leadingProbabilityCents} and {cryptoName} finishes in that direction, you receive $1.00 per share — a profit of {payoutMathDisplay} per share. If {cryptoName} moves the other way, those shares are worth $0. {volatilityNote}\"},\"marketClose\":{\"q\":\"When does the \\\"{title}\\\" market close?\",\"liveA\":\"The \\\"{title}\\\" market is live and resolves{endTimePart}{timePart}. Trading is open. The Up/Down odds will continue shifting in real time as {cryptoName}'s price moves and traders react. Once the window closes, the market resolves based on {resolutionSummary}\",\"resolvedA\":\"This {windowLabel} window closed{endTimePart} and has been resolved. The final outcome was \\\"{outcome}.\\\" Use the navigation bar at the top of this page to view adjacent windows or find the current live market.\",\"pendingA\":\"This {windowLabel} window closed{endTimePart} but has not yet been officially resolved. Resolution typically follows within seconds to minutes of the window closing. Check the Rules section on this page for the exact resolution process and timeline.\"},\"tradersSaying\":{\"q\":\"What are traders saying about \\\"{title}\\\"?\",\"activeA\":\"The \\\"{title}\\\" market has {countDisplay} comments where traders share their analysis and react to live {cryptoName} price movements. Scroll down to the comments section to read what other participants think. You can also check the \\\"Activity\\\" tab for a real-time feed of trades on this window.\",\"newMarketA\":\"No comments yet for this {windowLabel} window — check the \\\"Activity\\\" tab for a real-time feed of trades, or browse comments on other {cryptoName} Up or Down windows using the navigation bar above.\"},\"whatIsPolymarket\":{\"q\":\"What is Polymarket?\",\"a\":\"Polymarket is the world's largest prediction market, where you can stay informed and profit from your knowledge of real-world events. Traders buy and sell shares on outcomes for topics ranging from politics and elections to crypto, finance, sports, tech, and culture — including {windowLabel} {cryptoName} direction markets like \\\"{title}.\\\" Prices reflect real-time, crowd-sourced probabilities backed by financial conviction, often providing faster and more accurate signals than polls, pundits, or traditional surveys.\"},\"windowUrgency\":{\"fiveminute\":\"Because this window resolves in 5 minutes, odds can shift sharply in the final seconds.\",\"fifteen\":\"Because this window resolves in 15 minutes, odds can move quickly as new price data comes in.\",\"hourly\":\"As the hour progresses, odds reflect the latest live price action relative to the open.\",\"fourhour\":\"Over a 4-hour window, odds shift as broader price trends develop.\",\"daily\":\"Over a full day, odds reflect evolving sentiment as the day's price action unfolds.\"},\"priceVolatility\":{\"fiveminute\":\"Because this market resolves in 5 minutes, prices can shift dramatically in a very short time.\",\"fifteen\":\"Because this market resolves in 15 minutes, prices can move quickly as new price data comes in.\",\"hourly\":\"Prices can shift meaningfully during the hour as {cryptoName}'s live price action evolves.\",\"fourhour\":\"Over a 4-hour window, prices shift as broader trends and market sentiment develop.\",\"daily\":\"Prices can shift throughout the day as {cryptoName}'s price action unfolds toward the noon ET close.\"},\"fragments\":{\"ofPriceToBeat\":\" of {priceToBeat}\",\"byEndTime\":\" by {endTime}\",\"atEndTime\":\" at {endTime}\",\"beginningAtStartTime\":\" beginning at {startTime}\",\"approximatelyFromNow\":\" — approximately {timeRemaining} from now\",\"priceToBeatParens\":\" ({priceToBeat})\",\"theResolutionDate\":\"the resolution date\",\"theReferenceDate\":\"the reference date\"},\"resolutionSummary\":{\"chainlink\":\"whether the final Chainlink {cryptoTicker}/USD price is above or below the opening Price to Beat.\",\"chainlinkWithPtb\":\"whether the final Chainlink {cryptoTicker}/USD price is above or below the opening Price to Beat of {priceToBeat}.\",\"hourly\":\"whether the Binance {cryptoTicker}/USDT 1-hour candle closing price is above or below its opening price.\",\"daily\":\"whether {cryptoName}'s Binance price at noon ET on {resolutionDate} is higher or lower than at noon ET on {referenceDate}.\",\"pyth\":\"whether the Pyth-published price for {cryptoName} ({cryptoTicker}) at market close is higher or lower than the reference price at market open.\"},\"windowLabels\":{\"fiveminute\":\"5-minute\",\"fifteen\":\"15-minute\",\"hourly\":\"hourly\",\"fourhour\":\"4-hour\",\"daily\":\"daily\"},\"windowDurations\":{\"fiveminute\":\"5 minutes\",\"fifteen\":\"15 minutes\",\"hourly\":\"1 hour\",\"fourhour\":\"4 hours\",\"daily\":\"1 day\"},\"timeRemaining\":{\"aboutOneMinute\":\"about 1 minute\",\"aboutMinutes\":\"about {count} minutes\",\"aboutOneHour\":\"about 1 hour\",\"aboutHours\":\"about {count} hours\",\"aboutOneDay\":\"about 1 day\"}},\"sportsCategoryFaq\":{\"title\":\"Frequently Asked Questions\",\"noMarkets\":{\"q\":\"Are there {name} markets on Polymarket right now?\",\"a\":\"There are no active {name} markets at the moment. New markets are typically listed ahead of the next {name} season or event — check back closer to game day, or browse other live markets from the left-side menu.\"},\"sport\":{\"q1\":{\"q\":\"What is a {sportName} prediction market on Polymarket?\",\"withMatchups\":\"A {sportName} prediction market lets traders buy and sell shares in real-world {sportName} outcomes for matchups like {topMarkets}. Each share is priced between 0¢ and 100¢, and the price reflects the market's implied probability that the outcome occurs.\",\"noMatchups\":\"A {sportName} prediction market lets traders buy and sell shares in real-world {sportName} outcomes. Each share is priced between 0¢ and 100¢, and the price reflects the market's implied probability that the outcome occurs.\"},\"q2\":{\"q\":\"How do {sportName} odds work on Polymarket?\",\"withSample\":\"Polymarket uses probability-based pricing rather than traditional moneyline or spread odds. A {sportName} contract trading at {samplePrice}¢ implies the market believes there is a {samplePrice}% chance of that outcome. Prices update continuously as traders incorporate new information — injuries, weather, sportsbook movement, and in-play developments.\",\"noSample\":\"Polymarket uses probability-based pricing rather than traditional moneyline or spread odds. A {sportName} contract priced between 0¢ and 100¢ reflects the market's implied probability of that outcome. Prices update continuously as traders incorporate new information — injuries, weather, sportsbook movement, and in-play developments.\"},\"q3\":{\"q\":\"What are the most active {sportName} markets right now?\",\"a\":\"The most-traded {sportName} markets at the moment include {topMarkets}. Trading volume reflects how much real money is flowing through each market and is a useful signal of where consensus is forming.\"},\"q4\":{\"q\":\"When do new {sportName} markets get listed?\",\"a\":\"New {sportName} markets are typically listed ahead of major fixtures, tournaments, and seasons. Markets are added as schedules are finalized and resolved once outcomes are official.\"},\"q5\":{\"q\":\"How many {sportName} prediction markets are live on Polymarket right now?\",\"withLeagues\":\"There are {activeCount} live {sportName} prediction markets, including ones for {topLeagues}, on Polymarket.\",\"noLeagues\":\"There are {activeCount} live {sportName} prediction markets on Polymarket.\"},\"q6\":{\"q\":\"Is Polymarket's {sportName} pricing reliable?\",\"a\":\"Polymarket {sportName} prices reflect the consensus of traders putting real money at risk on {sportName} outcomes — what research often calls the \\\"wisdom of crowds\\\" with skin in the game.\"},\"q7\":{\"q\":\"How are {sportName} predictions and {sportName} odds different on Polymarket?\",\"a\":\"On Polymarket, {sportName} predictions aren't tips, picks, or guarantees — they're the live, market-driven view of how likely each {sportName} outcome is. {sportName} odds are shown as prices between 0¢ and 100¢, and that price is the implied probability of the outcome. So a {sportName} prediction is the question being asked (\\\"who wins?\\\"), and the {sportName} odds are the real-time, real-money answer the market is giving.\"}},\"league\":{\"q1\":{\"q\":\"What is a {leagueName} prediction market on Polymarket?\",\"a\":\"A {leagueName} prediction market lets traders take positions on real-world {leagueName} outcomes. Each market offers shares priced between 0¢ and 100¢, where the price represents the implied probability that the outcome occurs. You can browse all live {leagueName} markets on this page.\"},\"q2\":{\"q\":\"How many {leagueName} markets are live on Polymarket right now?\",\"withVolume\":\"There are currently {activeCount} active {leagueName} markets, with a combined trading volume of {totalVolume}. The full list is available on this page.\",\"noVolume\":\"There are currently {activeCount} active {leagueName} markets on Polymarket. The full list is available on this page.\"},\"q3\":{\"q\":\"What are today's most-traded {leagueName} markets?\",\"a\":\"The top {leagueName} markets by volume right now are {topMarkets}. These are typically driven by upcoming matchups, breaking injury news, and lineup confirmations.\"},\"q4\":{\"q\":\"What's the next big {leagueName} event I can trade on?\",\"a\":\"The next scheduled {leagueName} event with a market on Polymarket is {nextEvent} on {nextDate}.\"},\"q5\":{\"q\":\"How do I read {leagueName} odds in cents?\",\"a\":\"Each contract is priced between 0¢ and 100¢. A {leagueName} team or player priced at 65¢, for example, means the market is implying a 65% probability that they win or hit the stated outcome. The other side trades at 35¢.\"},\"q6\":{\"q\":\"What types of {leagueName} markets can I trade on Polymarket?\",\"a\":\"{leagueName} markets typically cover individual game and match outcomes, season-long awards, championship futures, and player props where available. The exact mix depends on the {leagueName} schedule and what traders are most active on at any given time — see the live list on this page for what's currently open.\"},\"q7\":{\"q\":\"What factors usually move {leagueName} prices the most?\",\"a\":\"Prices tend to move fastest on news that changes who is playing or how they'll perform — confirmed lineups, injury updates, suspensions, weather, and in-play developments. The 24–48 hours before a {leagueName} event are typically the most active window for price movement.\"}}},\"homepageV2\":{\"featuredMarketsSectionHeading\":\"Featured markets\",\"featuredMarketsCarousel\":\"Featured markets carousel\",\"allMarkets\":\"All markets\",\"exploreAll\":\"Explore all\",\"hotTopics\":\"Hot topics\",\"aiSubtags\":{\"ariaLabel\":\"AI topics\",\"releases\":\"Releases\",\"rankings\":\"Rankings\",\"benchmarks\":\"Benchmarks\",\"govRegulation\":\"Gov Regulation\",\"compute\":\"Compute\",\"anthropic\":\"Anthropic\",\"openai\":\"OpenAI\"},\"perpsCallout\":{\"title\":\"Perps are here\",\"description\":\"Go long or short an asset with leverage up to 20x\",\"startTrading\":\"Start trading\",\"close\":\"Close\",\"welcomeTitle\":\"Welcome to Perps\",\"welcomeDescription\":\"Make a deposit to start trading\",\"transferFromPredictions\":\"Transfer from Predictions\",\"predictionCash\":\"{balance} cash\",\"fastest\":\"Fastest\",\"newDeposit\":\"Make a new deposit\",\"depositMethods\":\"Via card or crypto\"},\"today\":\"today\",\"endedAt\":\"Ended at {time}\",\"endedOn\":\"Ended on {date}\",\"ends\":\"Ends {date}\",\"vol\":\"Vol\",\"live\":\"Live\",\"topTraders\":\"Top Traders\",\"trader\":\"Trader\",\"side\":\"Side\",\"pnl\":\"PnL\",\"spread\":\"Spread\",\"total\":\"Total\",\"sports\":\"Sports\",\"priceToBeat\":\"Price To Beat\",\"currentPrice\":\"Current Price\",\"endsIn\":\"Ends in\",\"yes\":\"Yes\",\"no\":\"No\",\"draw\":\"DRAW\",\"up\":\"Up\",\"down\":\"Down\",\"upOrDown\":\"Up or Down\"},\"breaking\":{\"title\":\"Breaking News\",\"description\":\"See the polymarkets that moved the most in the last 24 hours\",\"movers\":{\"categories\":{\"all\":\"All\",\"politics\":\"Politics\",\"world\":\"World\",\"sports\":\"Sports\",\"crypto\":\"Crypto\",\"finance\":\"Finance\",\"tech\":\"Tech\",\"culture\":\"Culture\"},\"emptyState\":\"No significant market movements in this category\",\"emptyStateDescription\":\"Try selecting a different category or check back later\",\"getUpdates\":\"Get updates\",\"waitlist\":{\"title\":\"Get daily updates\",\"description\":\"We'll send you an email every day with what's moving on Polymarket\",\"submittedTitle\":\"You're on the list\",\"submittedDescription\":\"You'll receive daily updates about the biggest market moves\",\"emailPlaceholder\":\"Enter your email\",\"emailError\":\"Enter a valid email\",\"joining\":\"Joining…\",\"getUpdates\":\"Get updates\"},\"tweetList\":{\"liveFrom\":\"Live from @Polymarket\",\"followOnX\":\"Follow on 𝕏\",\"breakingNews\":\"Breaking news\",\"newPolymarket\":\"New polymarket\",\"tweetMediaAlt\":\"tweet media\",\"seeAll\":\"See all\"}},\"meta\":{\"defaultTitle\":\"Breaking News | Polymarket\",\"defaultDescription\":\"See the markets that moved the most in the last 24 hours.\",\"politics\":{\"title\":\"Breaking Political News \u0026 Predictions | Polymarket\",\"description\":\"Real-time prediction markets and trading odds on breaking political news, elections, and government policy.\",\"h1\":\"Breaking Politics News \u0026 Predictions\"},\"world\":{\"title\":\"Breaking World News \u0026 Predictions | Polymarket\",\"description\":\"Real-time prediction markets for breaking world news, conflicts, and international relations.\",\"h1\":\"Breaking World News \u0026 Predictions\"},\"sports\":{\"title\":\"Breaking Sports News \u0026 Predictions | Polymarket\",\"description\":\"Real-time prediction markets for breaking sports news, trades, injuries, and game outcomes.\",\"h1\":\"Breaking Sports News \u0026 Predictions\"},\"crypto\":{\"title\":\"Breaking Crypto News \u0026 Predictions | Polymarket\",\"description\":\"Real-time prediction markets for breaking crypto news, regulation, and price movements.\",\"h1\":\"Breaking Crypto News \u0026 Predictions\"},\"finance\":{\"title\":\"Breaking Financial News \u0026 Predictions | Polymarket\",\"description\":\"Real-time prediction markets for breaking financial news, earnings reports, and 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The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.\n\nThis market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's September 2026 meeting.\n\nIf the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)\n\nThe resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for September 15-16, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.\n\nThe level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.\n\nThis market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their September meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the \"No change\" bracket.6a:T530,The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.\n\nThis market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's September 2026 meeting.\n\nIf the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)\n\nThe resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for Sep"])</script><script>self.__next_f.push([1,"tember 15-16, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.\n\nThe level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.\n\nThis market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their September meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the \"No change\" bracket.6b:T530,The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.\n\nThis market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's September 2026 meeting.\n\nIf the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)\n\nThe resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for September 15-16, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.\n\nThe level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.\n\nThis market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their September meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the \"No change\" bracket.6c:T530,The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.\n\nThis market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's September 2026 meeting.\n\nIf the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)\n\nThe resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for September 15-16, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.\n\nThe level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.\n\nThis market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their September meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the \"No change\" bracket.6d:T530,The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.\n\nThis market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's September 2026 meeting.\n\nIf the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)\n\nThe resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for September 15-16, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/mo"])</script><script>self.__next_f.push([1,"netarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.\n\nThe level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.\n\nThis market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their September meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the \"No change\" bracket.6e:T530,The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.\n\nThis market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's September 2026 meeting.\n\nIf the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)\n\nThe resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for September 15-16, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.\n\nThe level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.\n\nThis market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their September meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the \"No change\" bracket.6f:T52a,The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.\n\nThis market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's October 2026 meeting.\n\nIf the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)\n\nThe resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for October 27-28, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.\n\nThe level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.\n\nThis market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their October meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the \"No change\" bracket.70:T52b,The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.\n\nThis market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's December 2026 meeting.\n\nIf the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)\n\nThe resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for December 8-9, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.\n\nThe level and change of the target federal funds rate is also pub"])</script><script>self.__next_f.push([1,"lished at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.\n\nThis market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their December meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the \"No change\" bracket.71:T52a,The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.\n\nThis market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's January 2027 meeting.\n\nIf the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)\n\nThe resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for January 26-27, 2027 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.\n\nThe level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.\n\nThis market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their January meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the \"No change\" bracket.72:T568,"])</script><script>self.__next_f.push([1,"The FED rate is defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.\n\nThis market will resolve according to the upper bound of the Federal Reserve’s target federal funds range after the December 2026 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026.\n\nThis market may resolve immediately after the statement for the FOMC’s December meeting, with relevant information about the FOMC’s decision on the target federal funds range, has been issued. If no FOMC decision on the target federal funds range for their December meeting has been issued by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the upper bound of the target federal funds range at that time.\n\nThe upper bound of the target federal funds range will be rounded to the nearest 25 basis points for resolution of this market. If the upper bound of the target federal funds range falls exactly between two listed options, it will be rounded away from zero (e.g. if the upper bound is 2.875, with listed options of 3.0 \u0026 2.75, this market will resolve to 3.0).\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm)."])</script><script>self.__next_f.push([1,"73:T57f,"])</script><script>self.__next_f.push([1,"The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.\n\nThis market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: September 15-16; October 27-28; and December 8-9.\n\nA qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.\n\nA qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.\n\nA qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.\n\nIf the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to \"Other\". Any rate cut will be encompassed by \"Other\".\n\nEmergency rate changes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.\n\nThe resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:\nhttps://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm\n\nThe level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:\nhttps://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm"])</script><script>self.__next_f.push([1,"74:T58b,"])</script><script>self.__next_f.push([1,"The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.\n\nThis market will resolve to “Hike” if the first FOMC decision to change the upper bound of the target federal funds rate between market creation and December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET is one that increases the specified rate compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.\n\nThis market will resolve to “Cut” if the first FOMC decision to change the upper bound of the target federal funds rate between market creation and December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET is one that decreases the specified rate compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.\n\nIf the FOMC announces no decision changing the specified rate between market creation and December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “50-50”.\n\nAny decision changing the specified rate within the specified timeframe, including emergency and non-scheduled decisions, will qualify.\n\nThe resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:\nhttps://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm\n\nThe level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:\nhttps://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm"])</script><script>self.__next_f.push([1,"75:T578,"])</script><script>self.__next_f.push([1,"The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.\n\nThis market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16.\n\nA qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.\n\nA qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.\n\nA qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.\n\nIf the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to \"Other\". Any rate hike will be encompassed by \"Other\".\n\nEmergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.\n\nThe resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:\nhttps://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm\n\nThe level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:\nhttps://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm"])</script><script>self.__next_f.push([1,"76:T57b,"])</script><script>self.__next_f.push([1,"The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.\n\nThis market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: July 28-29; September 15-16; and October 27-28.\n\nA qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.\n\nA qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.\n\nA qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.\n\nIf the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to \"Other\". Any rate hike will be encompassed by \"Other\".\n\nEmergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.\n\nThe resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:\nhttps://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm\n\nThe level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:\nhttps://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm"])</script><script>self.__next_f.push([1,"77:T468,This market will resolve according to the exact amount of hikes of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any hikes made during the December meeting).\n\nEmergency rate hikes outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of hikes in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.\n\nFor example, if the Fed hikes rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 hikes (of 25 bps each).\n\nThis market will resolve early to \"No\" if the specified number of hikes becomes impossible — i.e., if more hikes have already occurred than the strike in question.\n\nNote that hikes between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate hike.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.78:T45e,This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting).\n\nEmergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.\n\nFor example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each).\n\nThis market will resolve early to \"No\" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question.\n\nNote that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.79:T7a1,"])</script><script>self.__next_f.push([1,"This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the deposit facility rate resulting from the September 2026 meeting of the European Central Bank, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting.\n\nThe resolution source will be official information from the European Central Bank, including the statement or release from its September 2026 meeting, scheduled for September 9-10, 2026, as listed on the official European Central Bank calendar (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the European Central Bank's September 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued.\n\nIf the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.\n\nIf the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.\n\nIf the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered."])</script><script>self.__next_f.push([1,"7a:T7cc,"])</script><script>self.__next_f.push([1,"This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the Bank Rate resulting from the September 2026 meeting of the Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting.\n\nThe resolution source will be official information from the Bank of England, including the statement or release from its September 2026 Monetary Policy Committee meeting, scheduled for September 17 2026, as listed on the official Bank of England calendar (https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/monetary-policy/upcoming-mpc-dates). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Bank of England's September 2026 Monetary Policy Committee meeting with relevant data is issued.\n\nIf the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.\n\nIf the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.\n\nIf the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered."])</script><script>self.__next_f.push([1,"7b:T79a,"])</script><script>self.__next_f.push([1,"This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the deposit facility rate resulting from the October 2026 meeting of the European Central Bank, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting.\n\nThe resolution source will be official information from the European Central Bank, including the statement or release from its October 2026 meeting, scheduled for October 28-29, 2026, as listed on the official European Central Bank calendar (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the European Central Bank's October 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued.\n\nIf the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.\n\nIf the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.\n\nIf the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered."])</script><script>self.__next_f.push([1,"67:[\"$\",\"$L68\",null,{\"state\":{\"mutations\":[],\"queries\":[{\"dehydratedAt\":1788854300851,\"state\":{\"data\":{\"$schema\":\"https://gamma-api.polymarket.com/schemas/Event.json\",\"id\":\"481717\",\"ticker\":\"fed-decision-in-september-762\",\"slug\":\"fed-decision-in-september-762\",\"title\":\"Fed Decision in September?\",\"description\":\"$69\",\"resolutionSource\":\"\",\"startDate\":\"2026-05-13T21:23:09.737806Z\",\"creationDate\":\"2026-05-13T21:27:12.597909Z\",\"endDate\":\"2026-09-16T00:00:00Z\",\"image\":\"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/fed-decision-in-september-762-c4RyWuxRPo1L.jpg\",\"icon\":\"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/fed-decision-in-september-762-c4RyWuxRPo1L.jpg\",\"active\":true,\"closed\":false,\"archived\":false,\"new\":false,\"featured\":true,\"restricted\":true,\"liquidity\":5366099.2543,\"volume\":103449144.34769621,\"openInterest\":22248530.039003,\"createdAt\":\"2026-05-13T17:23:04.366042Z\",\"updatedAt\":\"2026-09-08T07:54:30.326195Z\",\"competitive\":0.9997750506136119,\"volume24hr\":2727529.392104,\"volume1wk\":29659416.614999995,\"volume1mo\":84254683.15210897,\"volume1yr\":103448616.44519597,\"enableOrderBook\":true,\"liquidityClob\":5366099.2543,\"negRisk\":true,\"negRiskMarketID\":\"0x128d7d75905674954c484aa559fd18435376720a91f4614a2a5c2b60aa94c900\",\"commentCount\":1,\"markets\":[{\"id\":\"2252242\",\"question\":\"Will 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His approach emphasized data-driven decisions without forward guidance, contributing to market uncertainty but reinforcing expectations of steady rates in the near term.\",\"timeRange\":\"2026-05-22T06:00:00.000Z to 2026-05-22T18:00:00.000Z\",\"title\":\"Kevin Warsh Sworn in as Federal Reserve Chair, Signals Cautious Monetary Policy\",\"sources\":[{\"name\":\"Federal Reserve Board\",\"url\":\"https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/other20260522a.htm\"}],\"outcome\":\"No change\",\"priceBefore\":null,\"priceAfter\":null},{\"timestamp\":\"2026-05-22 12:00:00+00\",\"unixTime\":1779451200,\"priceChange\":0,\"summary\":\"Kevin Warsh took over as Fed Chair and emphasized reacting to economic data rather than providing forward guidance, increasing uncertainty about future rate moves. 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This contributed to early market positioning for no rate cuts and potential future hikes, supporting the 'No change' outcome.\",\"timeRange\":\"2026-05-22T06:00:00.000Z to 2026-05-22T18:00:00.000Z\",\"title\":\"Fed Governor Waller Discusses Economic Outlook Amid Inflation and Tariff Effects\",\"sources\":[{\"name\":\"Federal Reserve Board\",\"url\":\"https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/waller20260713a.htm\"}],\"outcome\":\"No change\",\"priceBefore\":53,\"priceAfter\":74},{\"timestamp\":\"2026-05-22 12:00:00+00\",\"unixTime\":1779451200,\"priceChange\":-2,\"summary\":\"Kevin Warsh succeeded Jerome Powell as Fed Chair, signaling a shift towards data-driven policy without forward guidance. This increased market uncertainty about future rate moves, contributing to fluctuating expectations but overall supporting a cautious approach with no immediate rate changes.\",\"timeRange\":\"2026-05-22T06:00:00.000Z to 2026-05-22T18:00:00.000Z\",\"title\":\"Kevin Warsh appointed as new Federal Reserve Chairman\",\"sources\":[{\"name\":\"AOL\",\"url\":\"https://www.aol.de/articles/federal-raise-lower-interest-rates-102000196.html\"}],\"outcome\":\"No change\",\"priceBefore\":76,\"priceAfter\":74},{\"timestamp\":\"2026-05-22 12:00:00+00\",\"unixTime\":1779451200,\"priceChange\":28,\"summary\":\"Kevin Warsh was officially sworn in as the 17th Chair of the Federal Reserve, marking a leadership transition from Jerome Powell. His appointment introduced market uncertainty about future rate policy, as Warsh emphasized independence and reform but faced political pressures.\",\"timeRange\":\"2026-05-22T06:00:00.000Z to 2026-05-22T18:00:00.000Z\",\"title\":\"Kevin Warsh sworn in as new Federal Reserve Chair at White House\",\"sources\":[{\"name\":\"CBS News\",\"url\":\"https://www.cbsnews.com/news/kevin-warsh-sworn-in-federal-reserve-chair/\"},{\"name\":\"Al Jazeera\",\"url\":\"https://www.aljazeera.com/economy/2026/5/22/kevin-warsh-sworn-in-as-new-us-fed-chair\"}],\"outcome\":null,\"priceBefore\":53,\"priceAfter\":81},{\"timestamp\":\"2026-05-27 12:00:00+00\",\"unixTime\":1779883200,\"priceChange\":21,\"summary\":\"Governor Lisa D. Cook's speech emphasized resilient economic output and inflation expectations, reinforcing the Fed's cautious stance on rate changes. This helped maintain market confidence in a steady policy, supporting the 'No change' outcome.\",\"timeRange\":\"2026-05-27T06:00:00.000Z to 2026-05-27T18:00:00.000Z\",\"title\":\"Fed Governor Cook Highlights AI and Economic Outlook at Stanford\",\"sources\":[{\"name\":\"Federal Reserve Board\",\"url\":\"https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/cook20260715a.htm\"}],\"outcome\":\"No change\",\"priceBefore\":53,\"priceAfter\":74},{\"timestamp\":\"2026-05-29 12:00:00+00\",\"unixTime\":1780056000,\"priceChange\":28,\"summary\":\"On May 29, Federal Reserve officials indicated that while there was no immediate urgency to adjust rates, they remained prepared to raise interest rates if inflation continued to rise due to geopolitical tensions, particularly the conflict in the Middle East. This hawkish tone contributed to market uncertainty about future rate hikes.\",\"timeRange\":\"2026-05-29T06:00:00.000Z to 2026-05-29T18:00:00.000Z\",\"title\":\"Fed officials signal readiness to raise rates if inflation persists amid Middle East conflict\",\"sources\":[{\"name\":\"Reuters\",\"url\":\"https://www.reuters.com/business/fed-officials-mull-raising-rates-curb-growing-inflation-risk-2026-05-29/\"}],\"outcome\":\"No change\",\"priceBefore\":53,\"priceAfter\":81},{\"timestamp\":\"2026-05-29 12:00:00+00\",\"unixTime\":1780056000,\"priceChange\":12,\"summary\":\"On May 29, 2026, Federal Reserve officials indicated they might raise interest rates if inflation remains elevated due to supply shocks from the Middle East conflict, increasing market anticipation of future tightening.\",\"timeRange\":\"2026-05-29T06:00:00.000Z to 2026-05-29T18:00:00.000Z\",\"title\":\"Fed officials signal readiness to raise rates if inflation persists amid Middle East conflict\",\"sources\":[{\"name\":\"Reuters\",\"url\":\"https://www.reuters.com/business/fed-officials-mull-raising-rates-curb-growing-inflation-risk-2026-05-29/\"}],\"outcome\":\"25 bps increase\",\"priceBefore\":26,\"priceAfter\":38},{\"timestamp\":\"2026-05-29 12:00:00+00\",\"unixTime\":1780056000,\"priceChange\":28,\"summary\":\"On May 29, 2026, Federal Reserve officials indicated readiness to raise interest rates if inflation remains elevated, particularly due to war-driven energy price pressures. This hawkish tone increased market expectations for future tightening despite no immediate rate change, supporting the 'No change' and '25 bps increase' outcomes.\",\"timeRange\":\"2026-05-29T06:00:00.000Z to 2026-05-29T18:00:00.000Z\",\"title\":\"Fed officials signal possible future rate hikes amid inflation risks\",\"sources\":[{\"name\":\"Reuters\",\"url\":\"https://www.reuters.com/business/fed-officials-mull-raising-rates-curb-growing-inflation-risk-2026-05-29/\"}],\"outcome\":\"No change\",\"priceBefore\":53,\"priceAfter\":81},{\"timestamp\":\"2026-05-29 12:00:00+00\",\"unixTime\":1780056000,\"priceChange\":-12,\"summary\":\"Federal Reserve officials indicated readiness to raise interest rates if inflation remains elevated due to the ongoing Middle East conflict, highlighting inflation risks but no immediate urgency to adjust rates. This contributed to market uncertainty about future hikes versus holds.\",\"timeRange\":\"2026-05-29T06:00:00.000Z to 2026-05-29T18:00:00.000Z\",\"title\":\"Fed officials signal possible rate hike if inflation persists amid Middle East conflict\",\"sources\":[{\"name\":\"Reuters\",\"url\":\"https://www.reuters.com/business/fed-officials-mull-raising-rates-curb-growing-inflation-risk-2026-05-29/\"}],\"outcome\":\"No change\",\"priceBefore\":56,\"priceAfter\":44},{\"timestamp\":\"2026-05-29 12:00:00+00\",\"unixTime\":1780056000,\"priceChange\":-14,\"summary\":\"On May 29, Federal Reserve officials indicated readiness to raise interest rates if inflation pressures persist, especially due to geopolitical risks such as the Middle East conflict. This hawkish tone contributed to market expectations shifting away from cuts toward potential hikes later in 2026.\",\"timeRange\":\"2026-05-29T06:00:00.000Z to 2026-05-29T18:00:00.000Z\",\"title\":\"Federal Reserve officials signal possible future rate hikes amid inflation risks\",\"sources\":[{\"name\":\"Reuters\",\"url\":\"https://www.reuters.com/business/fed-officials-mull-raising-rates-curb-growing-inflation-risk-2026-05-29/\"}],\"outcome\":\"25 bps increase\",\"priceBefore\":26,\"priceAfter\":12},{\"timestamp\":\"2026-05-29 12:00:00+00\",\"unixTime\":1780056000,\"priceChange\":12,\"summary\":\"Federal Reserve officials indicated readiness to raise interest rates if inflation persists, reflecting concerns over the impact of Middle East conflict on energy prices and inflation. This hawkish tone increased market expectations for rate hikes later in 2026.\",\"timeRange\":\"2026-05-29T06:00:00.000Z to 2026-05-29T18:00:00.000Z\",\"title\":\"Fed officials signal possible future rate hikes amid inflation concerns\",\"sources\":[{\"name\":\"Reuters\",\"url\":\"https://www.reuters.com/business/fed-officials-mull-raising-rates-curb-growing-inflation-risk-2026-05-29/\"}],\"outcome\":\"25 bps increase\",\"priceBefore\":26,\"priceAfter\":38},{\"timestamp\":\"2026-05-29 12:00:00+00\",\"unixTime\":1780056000,\"priceChange\":23,\"summary\":\"Federal Reserve officials indicated readiness to raise interest rates if inflation risks persist due to the Middle East conflict. While some officials saw no urgency to adjust rates immediately, hawkish dissenters highlighted inflation concerns, increasing market expectations for a rate hike later in 2026.\",\"timeRange\":\"2026-05-29T06:00:00.000Z to 2026-05-29T18:00:00.000Z\",\"title\":\"Fed officials signal possible rate hikes amid inflation risks from Middle East conflict\",\"sources\":[{\"name\":\"Reuters\",\"url\":\"https://www.reuters.com/business/fed-officials-mull-raising-rates-curb-growing-inflation-risk-2026-05-29/\"}],\"outcome\":\"25 bps increase\",\"priceBefore\":16,\"priceAfter\":39},{\"timestamp\":\"2026-05-31 12:00:00+00\",\"unixTime\":1780228800,\"priceChange\":0,\"summary\":\"Former Fed Chair Jerome Powell publicly defended the Federal Reserve's independence against political pressure, emphasizing the importance of non-political monetary policy. This reinforced market confidence in the Fed's commitment to its dual mandate, supporting expectations of steady rates.\",\"timeRange\":\"2026-05-31T06:00:00.000Z to 2026-05-31T18:00:00.000Z\",\"title\":\"Jerome Powell defends Fed independence in JFK award speech\",\"sources\":[{\"name\":\"PBS News\",\"url\":\"https://www.pbs.org/newshour/politics/jerome-powell-uses-award-speech-to-warn-against-political-pressure-on-fed-courts-and-schools\"}],\"outcome\":\"No change\",\"priceBefore\":53,\"priceAfter\":null},{\"timestamp\":\"2026-06-04 12:00:00+00\",\"unixTime\":1780574400,\"priceChange\":0,\"summary\":\"Bowman's testimony highlighted regulatory perspectives amid economic uncertainties, indirectly supporting the Fed's cautious approach to interest rates and influencing market sentiment toward steady policy.\",\"timeRange\":\"2026-06-04T06:00:00.000Z to 2026-06-04T18:00:00.000Z\",\"title\":\"Vice Chair Michelle Bowman testifies on supervision and regulation\",\"sources\":[{\"name\":\"Federal Reserve Board\",\"url\":\"https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/testimony/bowman20260604a.htm\"}],\"outcome\":\"No change\",\"priceBefore\":null,\"priceAfter\":null},{\"timestamp\":\"2026-06-05 12:00:00+00\",\"unixTime\":1780660800,\"priceChange\":4,\"summary\":\"The May 2026 jobs report revealed a stronger-than-expected labor market with 172,000 jobs added, reinforcing the Fed's hawkish stance due to resilient employment and supporting expectations of future rate hikes.\",\"timeRange\":\"2026-06-05T06:00:00.000Z to 2026-06-05T18:00:00.000Z\",\"title\":\"May 2026 jobs report shows strong employment growth with 172,000 jobs added\",\"sources\":[{\"name\":\"CNBC\",\"url\":\"https://www.cnbc.com/2026/06/05/jobs-report-may-2026.html\"}],\"outcome\":\"25 bps increase\",\"priceBefore\":12,\"priceAfter\":16},{\"timestamp\":\"2026-06-05 12:00:00+00\",\"unixTime\":1780660800,\"priceChange\":5,\"summary\":\"The May 2026 jobs report exceeded expectations with 172,000 new jobs added, reinforcing the Fed's hawkish stance by demonstrating labor market resilience despite inflationary pressures, increasing the likelihood of rate hikes later in the year.\",\"timeRange\":\"2026-06-05T06:00:00.000Z to 2026-06-05T18:00:00.000Z\",\"title\":\"May 2026 Nonfarm Payrolls report shows strong job growth of 172,000\",\"sources\":[{\"name\":\"BrokerXplorer\",\"url\":\"https://www.brokerxplorer.com/news/us-dollar-surges-on-strong-nonfarm-payrolls-report-7791\"}],\"outcome\":\"25 bps increase\",\"priceBefore\":16,\"priceAfter\":21},{\"timestamp\":\"2026-06-09 12:00:00+00\",\"unixTime\":1781006400,\"priceChange\":-9,\"summary\":\"A Reuters poll published on June 9, 2026, revealed that a strong majority of economists expect the Federal Reserve to keep interest rates steady for the remainder of 2026 due to persistent war-driven inflation. This consensus marked a shift from earlier expectations of rate cuts, reinforcing market pricing for no change or possible hikes later in the year.\",\"timeRange\":\"2026-06-09T06:00:00.000Z to 2026-06-09T18:00:00.000Z\",\"title\":\"Economists Poll Shows Majority Expect Fed to Hold Rates Through 2026\",\"sources\":[{\"name\":\"Reuters\",\"url\":\"https://www.reuters.com/business/fed-hold-rates-this-year-cut-calls-fade-war-inflation-persists-economists-say-2026-06-09/\"}],\"outcome\":\"No change\",\"priceBefore\":77,\"priceAfter\":68},{\"timestamp\":\"2026-06-09 12:00:00+00\",\"unixTime\":1781006400,\"priceChange\":0,\"summary\":\"A Reuters poll showed a strong majority of economists forecast the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates steady through the rest of 2026, reflecting persistent inflation driven by war-related factors. This consensus marked a shift from earlier expectations of rate cuts, reinforcing market pricing of no change in the near term.\",\"timeRange\":\"2026-06-09T06:00:00.000Z to 2026-06-09T18:00:00.000Z\",\"title\":\"Economists largely expect Fed to hold rates for rest of 2026 amid persistent inflation\",\"sources\":[{\"name\":\"Reuters\",\"url\":\"https://www.reuters.com/business/fed-hold-rates-this-year-cut-calls-fade-war-inflation-persists-economists-say-2026-06-09/\"}],\"outcome\":\"No change\",\"priceBefore\":74,\"priceAfter\":74},{\"timestamp\":\"2026-06-09 12:00:00+00\",\"unixTime\":1781006400,\"priceChange\":19,\"summary\":\"A Reuters poll of economists revealed that nearly 70% expect the Federal Reserve to keep interest rates steady through 2026, reflecting concerns over persistent inflation driven by war-related factors. Despite this, futures markets price in at least one rate hike by year-end, indicating some uncertainty.\",\"timeRange\":\"2026-06-09T06:00:00.000Z to 2026-06-09T18:00:00.000Z\",\"title\":\"Reuters poll shows majority expect Fed to hold rates for rest of 2026 amid persistent inflation\",\"sources\":[{\"name\":\"Reuters\",\"url\":\"https://www.reuters.com/business/fed-hold-rates-this-year-cut-calls-fade-war-inflation-persists-economists-say-2026-06-09/\"}],\"outcome\":\"No change\",\"priceBefore\":20,\"priceAfter\":39},{\"timestamp\":\"2026-06-09 12:00:00+00\",\"unixTime\":1781006400,\"priceChange\":7,\"summary\":\"A Reuters poll showed that nearly 70% of economists forecast the Federal Reserve would keep its key interest rate unchanged through the rest of 2026, reflecting concerns over persistent inflation driven by geopolitical tensions and energy prices. This consensus marked a shift away from earlier expectations of rate cuts, reinforcing market pricing for a stable or higher rate environment.\",\"timeRange\":\"2026-06-09T06:00:00.000Z to 2026-06-09T18:00:00.000Z\",\"title\":\"Majority of economists expect Fed to hold rates for rest of 2026 amid persistent inflation\",\"sources\":[{\"name\":\"Reuters\",\"url\":\"https://www.reuters.com/business/fed-hold-rates-this-year-cut-calls-fade-war-inflation-persists-economists-say-2026-06-09/\"}],\"outcome\":\"No change\",\"priceBefore\":50,\"priceAfter\":57},{\"timestamp\":\"2026-06-09 12:00:00+00\",\"unixTime\":1781006400,\"priceChange\":0,\"summary\":\"A Reuters poll showed a strong majority of economists expect the Federal Reserve to keep interest rates steady through 2026 due to ongoing inflation pressures driven by war-related supply shocks and resilient economic indicators, reducing expectations for rate cuts this year.\",\"timeRange\":\"2026-06-09T06:00:00.000Z to 2026-06-09T18:00:00.000Z\",\"title\":\"Economists predict Fed will hold rates for rest of 2026 amid persistent inflation\",\"sources\":[{\"name\":\"Reuters\",\"url\":\"https://www.reuters.com/business/fed-hold-rates-this-year-cut-calls-fade-war-inflation-persists-economists-say-2026-06-09/\"}],\"outcome\":\"No change\",\"priceBefore\":null,\"priceAfter\":null},{\"timestamp\":\"2026-06-10 12:00:00+00\",\"unixTime\":1781092800,\"priceChange\":4,\"summary\":\"Consumer prices surged 4.2% year-over-year in May, driven largely by energy price increases due to the Iran conflict, complicating the Fed's inflation outlook and increasing expectations for rate hikes. This inflation spike reinforced the Fed's cautious stance and hawkish projections in June.\",\"timeRange\":\"2026-06-10T06:00:00.000Z to 2026-06-10T18:00:00.000Z\",\"title\":\"U.S. inflation rises to 4.2% in May, highest in three years\",\"sources\":[{\"name\":\"Bloomberg\",\"url\":\"https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-06-03/fed-official-says-rate-hikes-may-be-needed-to-cool-inflation\"},{\"name\":\"CNBC\",\"url\":\"https://eciks.org/7992-59529-economic-calendar-may-inflation-4-2-percent\"}],\"outcome\":\"25 bps increase\",\"priceBefore\":12,\"priceAfter\":16},{\"timestamp\":\"2026-06-10 12:00:00+00\",\"unixTime\":1781092800,\"priceChange\":0,\"summary\":\"The May 2026 CPI report showed a 4.2% year-over-year increase, driven primarily by a 40% spike in gasoline prices, signaling persistent inflationary pressures. This data reinforced market expectations that the Federal Reserve would maintain or potentially raise interest rates to combat inflation.\",\"timeRange\":\"2026-06-10T06:00:00.000Z to 2026-06-10T18:00:00.000Z\",\"title\":\"US Consumer Price Index rises 4.2% in May, highest in three years\",\"sources\":[{\"name\":\"WichitaLiberty\",\"url\":\"https://www.wichitaliberty.org/economics/may-2026-cpi-inflation-report-4-percent/\"}],\"outcome\":\"25 bps increase\",\"priceBefore\":null,\"priceAfter\":null},{\"timestamp\":\"2026-06-10 12:00:00+00\",\"unixTime\":1781092800,\"priceChange\":4,\"summary\":\"The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics released the May 2026 Consumer Price Index report showing a 4.2% year-over-year inflation rate, driven largely by a 40% spike in gasoline prices due to Middle East conflict. This report heightened concerns about persistent inflation, influencing the Fed's hawkish tone at the upcoming June meeting.\",\"timeRange\":\"2026-06-10T06:00:00.000Z to 2026-06-10T18:00:00.000Z\",\"title\":\"May 2026 CPI report shows inflation at 4.2%, highest in three years\",\"sources\":[{\"name\":\"CNBC\",\"url\":\"https://www.cnbc.com/2026/06/10/cpi-inflation-report-may-2026.html\"}],\"outcome\":\"25 bps increase\",\"priceBefore\":12,\"priceAfter\":16},{\"timestamp\":\"2026-06-10 12:00:00+00\",\"unixTime\":1781092800,\"priceChange\":7,\"summary\":\"The Consumer Price Index report released on June 10 showed inflation surged to 4.2% year-over-year in May 2026, driven largely by energy prices, intensifying pressure on the Federal Reserve to consider tightening monetary policy.\",\"timeRange\":\"2026-06-10T06:00:00.000Z to 2026-06-10T18:00:00.000Z\",\"title\":\"US CPI inflation rises to 4.2%, highest in three years\",\"sources\":[{\"name\":\"Wichita Liberty\",\"url\":\"https://www.wichitaliberty.org/economics/may-2026-cpi-inflation-report-4-percent/\"}],\"outcome\":\"25 bps increase\",\"priceBefore\":16,\"priceAfter\":23},{\"timestamp\":\"2026-06-10 12:00:00+00\",\"unixTime\":1781092800,\"priceChange\":-25,\"summary\":\"The May CPI rose 4.2% year-over-year, the highest in three years, driven by energy price increases linked to the Iran War. This inflation data supported the Fed's cautious stance and hawkish signals for potential rate hikes later in 2026.\",\"timeRange\":\"2026-06-10T06:00:00.000Z to 2026-06-10T18:00:00.000Z\",\"title\":\"May Consumer Price Index shows highest inflation in three years, influencing Fed outlook\",\"sources\":[{\"name\":\"Welch \u0026 Forbes\",\"url\":\"https://www.welchforbes.com/insights/economic-outlook-july-2026/\"}],\"outcome\":\"25 bps increase\",\"priceBefore\":35,\"priceAfter\":10},{\"timestamp\":\"2026-06-10 12:00:00+00\",\"unixTime\":1781092800,\"priceChange\":23,\"summary\":\"The May 2026 CPI report revealed a 4.2% year-over-year inflation rate, driven largely by energy price increases amid Middle East tensions, signaling persistent inflationary pressures that challenged expectations of rate cuts and supported a hawkish Fed outlook.\",\"timeRange\":\"2026-06-10T06:00:00.000Z to 2026-06-10T18:00:00.000Z\",\"title\":\"U.S. Consumer Price Index for May 2026 shows inflation at 4.2%, highest in 3 years\",\"sources\":[{\"name\":\"WichitaLiberty\",\"url\":\"https://www.wichitaliberty.org/economics/may-2026-cpi-inflation-report-4-percent/\"}],\"outcome\":\"25 bps increase\",\"priceBefore\":16,\"priceAfter\":39},{\"timestamp\":\"2026-06-16 12:00:00+00\",\"unixTime\":1781611200,\"priceChange\":0,\"summary\":\"At the June FOMC meeting, the Fed left rates steady but delivered a more hawkish message by removing prior forward guidance and signaling inflation risks remain, causing markets to reassess the likelihood of future hikes versus cuts.\",\"timeRange\":\"2026-06-16T06:00:00.000Z to 2026-06-16T18:00:00.000Z\",\"title\":\"Fed signals hawkish outlook, removing forward guidance on rate cuts\",\"sources\":[{\"name\":\"ECMarkets\",\"url\":\"https://www.ecmarkets.com/insights/fed-holds-rates-hawkish-hike-expectations/\"}],\"outcome\":\"No change\",\"priceBefore\":74,\"priceAfter\":74},{\"timestamp\":\"2026-06-16 12:00:00+00\",\"unixTime\":1781611200,\"priceChange\":0,\"summary\":\"The FOMC decided to keep rates steady amid persistent inflation and a resilient labor market, reflecting a split among policymakers on whether to cut or hold rates. This reinforced market expectations for no change in the upcoming September meeting.\",\"timeRange\":\"2026-06-16T06:00:00.000Z to 2026-06-16T18:00:00.000Z\",\"title\":\"Federal Reserve maintains target federal funds rate at 3.50%-3.75% in June meeting\",\"sources\":[{\"name\":\"Yahoo Finance\",\"url\":\"https://finance.yahoo.com/personal-finance/banking/article/fed-rate-predictions-2026-154647304.html\"}],\"outcome\":\"No change\",\"priceBefore\":null,\"priceAfter\":null},{\"timestamp\":\"2026-06-16 12:00:00+00\",\"unixTime\":1781611200,\"priceChange\":17,\"summary\":\"At the June meeting, the Fed held rates steady but issued a more hawkish statement and projections, causing markets to reassess expectations and increasing the probability of a 25 bps increase. Treasury yields and the US dollar rose in response.\",\"timeRange\":\"2026-06-16T06:00:00.000Z to 2026-06-16T18:00:00.000Z\",\"title\":\"Federal Reserve signals hawkish outlook, keeping rates steady but hinting at possible hikes\",\"sources\":[{\"name\":\"ECMarkets\",\"url\":\"https://www.ecmarkets.com/insights/fed-holds-rates-hawkish-hike-expectations/\"}],\"outcome\":\"25 bps increase\",\"priceBefore\":20,\"priceAfter\":37},{\"timestamp\":\"2026-06-16 12:00:00+00\",\"unixTime\":1781611200,\"priceChange\":0,\"summary\":\"At the June FOMC meeting, the Fed maintained rates and signaled a more hawkish stance, emphasizing inflation risks and removing forward guidance on cuts. This caused markets to reassess expectations, increasing the probability of no change or a rate hike in September.\",\"timeRange\":\"2026-06-16T06:00:00.000Z to 2026-06-16T18:00:00.000Z\",\"title\":\"Fed signals cautious outlook with no rate cuts despite inflation pressures\",\"sources\":[{\"name\":\"ECMarkets\",\"url\":\"https://www.ecmarkets.com/insights/fed-holds-rates-hawkish-hike-expectations/\"}],\"outcome\":\"No change\",\"priceBefore\":74,\"priceAfter\":74},{\"timestamp\":\"2026-06-16 12:00:00+00\",\"unixTime\":1781611200,\"priceChange\":0,\"summary\":\"During the June 16-17 meeting, the Fed kept rates unchanged at 3.50%-3.75% and removed language suggesting an easing bias, signaling a more cautious approach due to persistent inflation above target despite solid economic growth. This hawkish tone influenced market expectations towards a possible rate hike later in the year.\",\"timeRange\":\"2026-06-16T06:00:00.000Z to 2026-06-16T18:00:00.000Z\",\"title\":\"FOMC holds rates steady, removes easing bias amid inflation concerns\",\"sources\":[{\"name\":\"ActionForex\",\"url\":\"https://www.actionforex.com/central-banks/federal-reserve/646610-fed-minutes-of-the-federal-open-market-committee-39/\"}],\"outcome\":\"No change\",\"priceBefore\":null,\"priceAfter\":null},{\"timestamp\":\"2026-06-16 12:00:00+00\",\"unixTime\":1781611200,\"priceChange\":23,\"summary\":\"In June, the Fed kept rates unchanged at 3.5%-3.75% but delivered a hawkish message, emphasizing inflation risks and removing forward guidance. This caused markets to reassess expectations, increasing the probability of a 25 bps rate hike in September as inflation remained above target despite a weakening labor market.\",\"timeRange\":\"2026-06-16T06:00:00.000Z to 2026-06-16T18:00:00.000Z\",\"title\":\"Federal Reserve holds rates steady but signals hawkish outlook amid inflation concerns\",\"sources\":[{\"name\":\"ECMarkets\",\"url\":\"https://www.ecmarkets.com/insights/fed-holds-rates-hawkish-hike-expectations/\"}],\"outcome\":\"25 bps increase\",\"priceBefore\":16,\"priceAfter\":39},{\"timestamp\":\"2026-06-17 12:00:00+00\",\"unixTime\":1781697600,\"priceChange\":-5,\"summary\":\"Kevin Warsh was confirmed as the new Fed Chair, emphasizing a commitment to price stability and signaling a potential hawkish tilt in monetary policy. His inaugural FOMC meeting maintained rates but removed forward guidance, increasing market uncertainty about future moves.\",\"timeRange\":\"2026-06-17T06:00:00.000Z to 2026-06-17T18:00:00.000Z\",\"title\":\"Kevin Warsh confirmed as new Federal Reserve Chair, signaling hawkish policy stance\",\"sources\":[{\"name\":\"Bond Buyer\",\"url\":\"https://www.bondbuyer.com/organization/federal-reserve\"}],\"outcome\":\"No change\",\"priceBefore\":75,\"priceAfter\":70},{\"timestamp\":\"2026-06-17 12:00:00+00\",\"unixTime\":1781697600,\"priceChange\":0,\"summary\":\"The FOMC unanimously voted to keep the federal funds rate target range at 3.50% to 3.75%, noting solid economic expansion despite elevated uncertainty from the Middle East conflict. Inflation remained above the 2% target, reinforcing the Fed's commitment to price stability without immediate rate changes.\",\"timeRange\":\"2026-06-17T06:00:00.000Z to 2026-06-17T18:00:00.000Z\",\"title\":\"Federal Reserve holds rates steady at June meeting amid Middle East uncertainty\",\"sources\":[{\"name\":\"Federal Reserve Board\",\"url\":\"https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20260617a.htm\"}],\"outcome\":\"No change\",\"priceBefore\":60,\"priceAfter\":60},{\"timestamp\":\"2026-06-17 12:00:00+00\",\"unixTime\":1781697600,\"priceChange\":1,\"summary\":\"At his first FOMC meeting as Chair on June 17, 2026, Kevin Warsh maintained the federal funds rate at 3.50%–3.75%, signaling a cautious, data-dependent approach amid elevated inflation and a stabilizing labor market. His less detailed forward guidance contributed to market uncertainty about future hikes.\",\"timeRange\":\"2026-06-17T06:00:00.000Z to 2026-06-17T18:00:00.000Z\",\"title\":\"Kevin Warsh leads first Federal Reserve meeting, holds rates steady\",\"sources\":[{\"name\":\"Ground News\",\"url\":\"https://ground.news/article/warsh-to-face-spotlight-as-federal-reserve-likely-to-leave-interest-rates-unchanged\"},{\"name\":\"ConstructConnect News\",\"url\":\"https://news.constructconnect.com/fed-stays-put-as-2026-opens-keeping-cuts-on-a-short-leash\"}],\"outcome\":\"No change\",\"priceBefore\":75,\"priceAfter\":76},{\"timestamp\":\"2026-06-17 12:00:00+00\",\"unixTime\":1781697600,\"priceChange\":-5,\"summary\":\"The Federal Reserve's Federal Open Market Committee voted unanimously to keep the target range steady, citing solid economic activity and elevated inflation. The statement noted uncertainties from geopolitical tensions but reaffirmed commitment to price stability, supporting market expectations for no immediate rate change.\",\"timeRange\":\"2026-06-17T06:00:00.000Z to 2026-06-17T18:00:00.000Z\",\"title\":\"FOMC unanimously maintains federal funds rate at 3.50%-3.75% amid solid growth\",\"sources\":[{\"name\":\"federalreserve.gov\",\"url\":\"https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/files/monetary20260617a1.pdf\"}],\"outcome\":\"No change\",\"priceBefore\":76,\"priceAfter\":71},{\"timestamp\":\"2026-06-17 12:00:00+00\",\"unixTime\":1781697600,\"priceChange\":-7,\"summary\":\"At the June 16-17 FOMC meeting, the Fed removed language indicating a bias toward future rate cuts and signaled that a rate hike is possible later in 2026 due to accelerating inflation and a stable labor market. This hawkish shift caused markets to reassess expectations, reducing the likelihood of cuts and increasing the probability of hikes.\",\"timeRange\":\"2026-06-17T06:00:00.000Z to 2026-06-17T18:00:00.000Z\",\"title\":\"Federal Reserve removes easing bias, signals possible rate hike later in 2026\",\"sources\":[{\"name\":\"Polymarket\",\"url\":\"https://polymarket.copilot.markets/event/fed-decision-in-september-762\"}],\"outcome\":\"No change\",\"priceBefore\":76,\"priceAfter\":69},{\"timestamp\":\"2026-06-17 12:00:00+00\",\"unixTime\":1781697600,\"priceChange\":20,\"summary\":\"At its June 17 meeting, the Federal Open Market Committee unanimously voted to maintain the federal funds rate at 3.50%-3.75%, citing solid economic growth but elevated inflation driven by supply shocks, including energy prices. The Fed signaled a cautious approach, emphasizing price stability while acknowledging ongoing inflation risks, which influenced market expectations for future rate hikes.\",\"timeRange\":\"2026-06-17T06:00:00.000Z to 2026-06-17T18:00:00.000Z\",\"title\":\"Federal Reserve holds interest rates steady at 3.50%-3.75% amid persistent inflation\",\"sources\":[{\"name\":\"Reuters\",\"url\":\"https://www.reuters.com/business/fed-officials-mull-raising-rates-curb-growing-inflation-risk-2026-05-29/\"},{\"name\":\"Federal Reserve\",\"url\":\"https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/files/monetary20260617a1.pdf\"}],\"outcome\":\"25 bps increase\",\"priceBefore\":19,\"priceAfter\":39},{\"timestamp\":\"2026-06-17 12:00:00+00\",\"unixTime\":1781697600,\"priceChange\":0,\"summary\":\"At the June 17 FOMC meeting, the Fed unanimously kept rates unchanged but signaled a hawkish outlook with projections for higher rates by year-end, reflecting persistent inflation and solid economic growth. This reinforced expectations for possible hikes later in 2026.\",\"timeRange\":\"2026-06-17T06:00:00.000Z to 2026-06-17T18:00:00.000Z\",\"title\":\"Federal Reserve holds rates steady at 3.50%-3.75% with hawkish projections\",\"sources\":[{\"name\":\"Federal Reserve\",\"url\":\"https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomcminutes20260617.htm\"},{\"name\":\"TradingKey\",\"url\":\"https://www.tradingkey.com/analysis/economic/central-banks/261973912-fed-federal-fomc-2-economic-projections-decision-rates-tradingkey\"}],\"outcome\":\"25 bps increase\",\"priceBefore\":16,\"priceAfter\":16},{\"timestamp\":\"2026-06-17 12:00:00+00\",\"unixTime\":1781697600,\"priceChange\":5,\"summary\":\"At the June FOMC meeting, the Fed kept rates steady, emphasizing ongoing elevated inflation partly due to supply shocks from the Middle East conflict. The unanimous vote and statement reinforced a cautious stance, impacting market pricing toward a potential future hike.\",\"timeRange\":\"2026-06-17T06:00:00.000Z to 2026-06-17T18:00:00.000Z\",\"title\":\"Federal Reserve maintains rates at 3.5%-3.75% amid inflation and Middle East uncertainty\",\"sources\":[{\"name\":\"Federal Reserve Board\",\"url\":\"https://english.kontan.co.id/news/federal-reserve-issues-fomc-statement-june-17-2026-200-pm-est\"},{\"name\":\"InvestingLive\",\"url\":\"https://investinglive.com/centralbank/the-full-fomc-statement-from-the-june-2026-meeting-20260617/\"}],\"outcome\":\"No change\",\"priceBefore\":65,\"priceAfter\":70},{\"timestamp\":\"2026-06-17 12:00:00+00\",\"unixTime\":1781697600,\"priceChange\":-5,\"summary\":\"The FOMC voted 12-0 to keep the target range unchanged, removing language suggesting an easing bias and emphasizing the need to deliver price stability amid elevated inflation and economic uncertainty.\",\"timeRange\":\"2026-06-17T06:00:00.000Z to 2026-06-17T18:00:00.000Z\",\"title\":\"Federal Open Market Committee unanimously maintains federal funds rate at 3.50%-3.75%\",\"sources\":[{\"name\":\"Federal Reserve\",\"url\":\"https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20260617a.htm\"}],\"outcome\":\"No change\",\"priceBefore\":74,\"priceAfter\":69},{\"timestamp\":\"2026-06-17 12:00:00+00\",\"unixTime\":1781697600,\"priceChange\":12,\"summary\":\"At his first Federal Reserve meeting as Chair, Kevin Warsh maintained the federal funds rate at 3.5%-3.75%, signaling a cautious approach amid persistent inflation and energy price pressures from the U.S.-Iran conflict. The meeting revealed a divided committee with some policymakers expecting rate hikes later in 2026, influencing market expectations for a possible September increase.\",\"timeRange\":\"2026-06-17T06:00:00.000Z to 2026-06-17T18:00:00.000Z\",\"title\":\"Kevin Warsh holds first Fed meeting, keeps rates steady at 3.5%-3.75%\",\"sources\":[{\"name\":\"Ground News\",\"url\":\"https://ground.news/article/warsh-to-face-spotlight-as-federal-reserve-likely-to-leave-interest-rates-unchanged\"}],\"outcome\":\"25 bps increase\",\"priceBefore\":26,\"priceAfter\":38},{\"timestamp\":\"2026-06-17 12:00:00+00\",\"unixTime\":1781697600,\"priceChange\":1,\"summary\":\"At its June 16-17 meeting, the FOMC unanimously decided to maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 3.50% to 3.75%, citing solid economic activity and persistent inflation above the 2% goal. The statement removed easing bias and signaled a more hawkish outlook, leading markets to price in fewer rate cuts and potential hikes later in the year.\",\"timeRange\":\"2026-06-17T06:00:00.000Z to 2026-06-17T18:00:00.000Z\",\"title\":\"Federal Reserve holds federal funds rate steady at 3.50%-3.75% amid solid growth and elevated inflation\",\"sources\":[{\"name\":\"Reuters\",\"url\":\"https://www.reuters.com/business/fed-hold-rates-this-year-cut-calls-fade-war-inflation-persists-economists-say-2026-06-09/\"},{\"name\":\"Federal Reserve Board\",\"url\":\"https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomcminutes20260617.htm\"}],\"outcome\":\"No change\",\"priceBefore\":73,\"priceAfter\":74},{\"timestamp\":\"2026-06-17 12:00:00+00\",\"unixTime\":1781697600,\"priceChange\":0,\"summary\":\"The Federal Open Market Committee voted unanimously to keep the federal funds rate steady at 3.50%-3.75% during its June meeting, signaling a pause amid elevated inflation and economic growth. This decision reinforced market expectations for no immediate rate cuts and supported the rising probability of a 25 bps increase by September.\",\"timeRange\":\"2026-06-17T06:00:00.000Z to 2026-06-17T18:00:00.000Z\",\"title\":\"FOMC Maintains Federal Funds Rate at 3.50%-3.75% in First Meeting Under Chair Warsh\",\"sources\":[{\"name\":\"Live Feeds\",\"url\":\"https://www.live-feeds.com/feed/federal-reserve-issues-fomc-statement\"}],\"outcome\":\"No change\",\"priceBefore\":null,\"priceAfter\":null},{\"timestamp\":\"2026-06-17 12:00:00+00\",\"unixTime\":1781697600,\"priceChange\":28,\"summary\":\"The Federal Reserve Board of Governors unanimously maintained the interest rate paid on reserve balances at 3.65 percent effective June 18, 2026, supporting the FOMC's decision to hold the federal funds rate steady. This reinforced the Fed's cautious stance amid ongoing inflation and economic conditions.\",\"timeRange\":\"2026-06-17T06:00:00.000Z to 2026-06-17T18:00:00.000Z\",\"title\":\"Federal Reserve Board Votes Unanimously to Maintain Interest Rate Paid on Reserve Balances\",\"sources\":[{\"name\":\"Federal Reserve\",\"url\":\"https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/files/monetary20260617a1.pdf\"}],\"outcome\":\"No change\",\"priceBefore\":53,\"priceAfter\":81},{\"timestamp\":\"2026-06-17 12:00:00+00\",\"unixTime\":1781697600,\"priceChange\":1,\"summary\":\"Kevin Warsh's first FOMC meeting as Fed Chair marked a shift away from easing bias, with projections indicating fewer rate cuts and the possibility of hikes later in 2026 due to accelerating inflation and firm labor markets.\",\"timeRange\":\"2026-06-17T06:00:00.000Z to 2026-06-17T18:00:00.000Z\",\"title\":\"New Fed Chair Kevin Warsh signals hawkish shift at June FOMC meeting\",\"sources\":[{\"name\":\"Forbes\",\"url\":\"https://www.forbes.com/sites/simonmoore/2026/06/08/fed-may-remove-easing-language-at-june-meeting-setting-up-a-potential-2026-hike/\"}],\"outcome\":\"No change\",\"priceBefore\":73,\"priceAfter\":74},{\"timestamp\":\"2026-06-17 12:00:00+00\",\"unixTime\":1781697600,\"priceChange\":23,\"summary\":\"The Federal Reserve decided to maintain the federal funds rate target range at 3.50%-3.75% during its June 17 meeting, citing solid economic expansion despite persistent inflation. This decision marked the fourth consecutive hold and signaled a higher-for-longer rate outlook, influencing market expectations for future rate hikes.\",\"timeRange\":\"2026-06-17T06:00:00.000Z to 2026-06-17T18:00:00.000Z\",\"title\":\"Federal Reserve Holds Interest Rates Steady at 3.50%-3.75% in June 2026\",\"sources\":[{\"name\":\"TradingKey\",\"url\":\"https://www.tradingkey.com/analysis/economic/central-banks/261973912-fed-federal-fomc-2-economic-projections-decision-rates-tradingkey\"},{\"name\":\"Federal Reserve\",\"url\":\"https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/files/monetary20260617a1.pdf\"}],\"outcome\":\"No change\",\"priceBefore\":53,\"priceAfter\":76},{\"timestamp\":\"2026-06-17 12:00:00+00\",\"unixTime\":1781697600,\"priceChange\":-5,\"summary\":\"The Fed held rates steady amid accelerating inflation driven by energy costs and a resilient labor market. This decision signaled no immediate relief for borrowers, as inflation remained above target and wage growth lagged behind price increases.\",\"timeRange\":\"2026-06-17T06:00:00.000Z to 2026-06-17T18:00:00.000Z\",\"title\":\"Fed Interest Rate Decision June 2026: What It Means for You\",\"sources\":[{\"name\":\"Deputy\",\"url\":\"https://www.deputy.com/blog/fed-interest-rate-decision-june-2026-what-it-means-for-you\"}],\"outcome\":\"No change\",\"priceBefore\":75,\"priceAfter\":70},{\"timestamp\":\"2026-06-17 12:00:00+00\",\"unixTime\":1781697600,\"priceChange\":25,\"summary\":\"In his first FOMC meeting as Chair, Kevin Warsh emphasized the Fed's commitment to price stability amid elevated inflation, rejecting the idea of rate cuts in 2026 and indicating a possible rate hike later in the year. This hawkish tone contributed to market repricing toward higher rates and increased the probability of a 25 bps increase.\",\"timeRange\":\"2026-06-17T06:00:00.000Z to 2026-06-17T18:00:00.000Z\",\"title\":\"Fed Chair Kevin Warsh Signals Hawkish Outlook in First Meeting\",\"sources\":[{\"name\":\"StockTitan\",\"url\":\"https://www.stocktitan.net/articles/fed-rate-decision-june-17-2026\"},{\"name\":\"Welch \u0026 Forbes\",\"url\":\"https://www.welchforbes.com/insights/economic-outlook-july-2026/\"}],\"outcome\":\"25 bps increase\",\"priceBefore\":13,\"priceAfter\":38},{\"timestamp\":\"2026-06-17 12:00:00+00\",\"unixTime\":1781697600,\"priceChange\":-2,\"summary\":\"At its June 16-17 meeting, the Federal Open Market Committee unanimously voted to maintain the federal funds rate target range at 3.5% to 3.75%, citing solid economic expansion but persistent inflation above the 2% target. This decision reflected a cautious approach despite inflationary pressures, with some members dissenting in favor of a rate hike.\",\"timeRange\":\"2026-06-17T06:00:00.000Z to 2026-06-17T18:00:00.000Z\",\"title\":\"FOMC holds rates steady at 3.5%-3.75% amid elevated inflation\",\"sources\":[{\"name\":\"federalreserve.gov\",\"url\":\"https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomcminutes20260617.htm\"}],\"outcome\":\"No change\",\"priceBefore\":77,\"priceAfter\":75},{\"timestamp\":\"2026-06-17 12:00:00+00\",\"unixTime\":1781697600,\"priceChange\":-2,\"summary\":\"In his first meeting as Fed Chair, Kevin Warsh oversaw the decision to keep interest rates steady at 3.50%–3.75%. The brief statement emphasized elevated inflation and introduced institutional reforms, reinforcing market expectations of a cautious approach to rate changes in 2026.\",\"timeRange\":\"2026-06-17T06:00:00.000Z to 2026-06-17T18:00:00.000Z\",\"title\":\"Kevin Warsh Leads First FOMC Meeting, Fed Holds Rates at 3.50%–3.75%\",\"sources\":[{\"name\":\"Federal Reserve\",\"url\":\"https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/files/monetary20260617a1.pdf\"}],\"outcome\":\"No change\",\"priceBefore\":76,\"priceAfter\":74},{\"timestamp\":\"2026-06-17 12:00:00+00\",\"unixTime\":1781697600,\"priceChange\":0,\"summary\":\"At his first FOMC meeting as Fed Chair, Kevin Warsh maintained the federal funds rate at 3.5%-3.75%, signaling a focus on combating elevated inflation while deemphasizing maximum employment. This hawkish tone led markets to price in potential future hikes but no immediate change.\",\"timeRange\":\"2026-06-17T06:00:00.000Z to 2026-06-17T18:00:00.000Z\",\"title\":\"Kevin Warsh's first FOMC meeting emphasizes price stability, holds rates steady\",\"sources\":[{\"name\":\"Welch \u0026 Forbes\",\"url\":\"https://www.welchforbes.com/insights/economic-outlook-july-2026/\"}],\"outcome\":\"No change\",\"priceBefore\":null,\"priceAfter\":null},{\"timestamp\":\"2026-06-25 12:00:00+00\",\"unixTime\":1782388800,\"priceChange\":3,\"summary\":\"The US core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index, the Federal Reserve's preferred inflation gauge, accelerated to 4.1% in May 2026, the highest since October 2023. This increase intensified pressure on the Fed to consider raising interest rates to combat persistent inflation.\",\"timeRange\":\"2026-06-25T06:00:00.000Z to 2026-06-25T18:00:00.000Z\",\"title\":\"US Core Inflation Rises to Highest Level Since 2023, Pressuring Fed for Rate Hike\",\"sources\":[{\"name\":\"Ziarul-Financiar\",\"url\":\"https://www.astazi.ro/stiri/stire-inflatia-de-baza-din-sua-urca-la-4-1-cel-mai-ridicat-nivel-din-ultimii-aproape-trei-ani-si-pune-presiune-pe-fed-pentru-o-noua-majorare-de-dobanda-260527145.html\"}],\"outcome\":\"25 bps increase\",\"priceBefore\":16,\"priceAfter\":19},{\"timestamp\":\"2026-06-25 12:00:00+00\",\"unixTime\":1782388800,\"priceChange\":21,\"summary\":\"The Fed's preferred inflation measure, the PCE price index, rose to 4.1% in June, the highest since April 2023, signaling persistent inflationary pressures. This development increased market expectations for a rate hike later in 2026 to combat inflation.\",\"timeRange\":\"2026-06-25T06:00:00.000Z to 2026-06-25T18:00:00.000Z\",\"title\":\"Federal Reserve Inflation Gauge Surges Above 4% in June 2026\",\"sources\":[{\"name\":\"The Gist Notes\",\"url\":\"https://thegistnotes.com/federal-reserve-inflation-gauge-surges-above-4-in-june-2026/\"}],\"outcome\":\"25 bps increase\",\"priceBefore\":38,\"priceAfter\":59},{\"timestamp\":\"2026-07-02 12:00:00+00\",\"unixTime\":1782993600,\"priceChange\":-6,\"summary\":\"The July 2026 employment report showed a decline of 23,000 jobs, signaling a weakening labor market. This data reduced market expectations for an immediate rate hike, supporting the case for the Fed to hold rates steady in the near term.\",\"timeRange\":\"2026-07-02T06:00:00.000Z to 2026-07-02T18:00:00.000Z\",\"title\":\"July jobs report shows weaker employment growth, reducing odds of immediate Fed hike\",\"sources\":[{\"name\":\"Regards of Wallstreet\",\"url\":\"https://www.regardsofwallstreet.com/news/september-2026-fed-meeting-dates-hike-odds\"}],\"outcome\":\"No change\",\"priceBefore\":76,\"priceAfter\":70},{\"timestamp\":\"2026-07-02 12:00:00+00\",\"unixTime\":1782993600,\"priceChange\":-8,\"summary\":\"The June employment report indicated continued job growth and a stable unemployment rate, supporting the Fed's view of a resilient labor market. This data reduced immediate pressure for rate cuts and contributed to market expectations of steady rates in the near term.\",\"timeRange\":\"2026-07-02T06:00:00.000Z to 2026-07-02T18:00:00.000Z\",\"title\":\"June jobs report shows 57,000 jobs added, unemployment at 4.2%\",\"sources\":[{\"name\":\"racerpm.com\",\"url\":\"https://racerpm.com/article/federal-reserve-fomc-statement-june-2026-interest-rates-inflation-and-economic-outlook-explained\"}],\"outcome\":\"No change\",\"priceBefore\":75,\"priceAfter\":67},{\"timestamp\":\"2026-07-07 12:00:00+00\",\"unixTime\":1783425600,\"priceChange\":12,\"summary\":\"Following the July CPI report and Fed Chair Warsh's press conference, markets increasingly priced in a 25 bps rate hike in September due to ongoing inflation above target and the Fed's commitment to price stability. Treasury yields rose sharply reflecting these expectations.\",\"timeRange\":\"2026-07-07T06:00:00.000Z to 2026-07-07T18:00:00.000Z\",\"title\":\"Markets anticipate imminent Fed rate hike amid persistent inflation and Warsh's hawkish signals\",\"sources\":[{\"name\":\"Forbes\",\"url\":\"https://www.forbes.com/sites/simonmoore/2026/07/07/rate-hike-may-come-soon-on-market-estimates/\"}],\"outcome\":\"25 bps increase\",\"priceBefore\":25,\"priceAfter\":37},{\"timestamp\":\"2026-07-07 12:00:00+00\",\"unixTime\":1783425600,\"priceChange\":24,\"summary\":\"Following the June FOMC statement emphasizing price stability and persistent inflation, markets began pricing in a high probability of a rate increase by September, reflecting uncertainty about the magnitude and timing of hikes.\",\"timeRange\":\"2026-07-07T06:00:00.000Z to 2026-07-07T18:00:00.000Z\",\"title\":\"Market anticipates imminent rate hike following hawkish FOMC June statement\",\"sources\":[{\"name\":\"Forbes\",\"url\":\"https://www.forbes.com/sites/simonmoore/2026/07/07/rate-hike-may-come-soon-on-market-estimates/\"}],\"outcome\":\"25 bps increase\",\"priceBefore\":16,\"priceAfter\":40},{\"timestamp\":\"2026-07-07 12:00:00+00\",\"unixTime\":1783425600,\"priceChange\":23,\"summary\":\"Following hotter inflation data and hawkish Fed tone, markets increased expectations for a rate hike by September, reflecting uncertainty about inflation trajectory and Fed policy.\",\"timeRange\":\"2026-07-07T06:00:00.000Z to 2026-07-07T18:00:00.000Z\",\"title\":\"Market speculation rises on possible Fed rate hike amid inflation concerns\",\"sources\":[{\"name\":\"Forbes\",\"url\":\"https://www.forbes.com/sites/simonmoore/2026/07/07/rate-hike-may-come-soon-on-market-estimates/\"}],\"outcome\":\"25 bps increase\",\"priceBefore\":15,\"priceAfter\":38},{\"timestamp\":\"2026-07-07 12:00:00+00\",\"unixTime\":1783425600,\"priceChange\":23,\"summary\":\"Market commentary in early July emphasized a growing consensus that the Federal Reserve would likely raise interest rates in September due to persistent inflation and strong labor market data. This contributed to a significant increase in the market pricing for a 25 bps rate hike and a decline in expectations for no change or rate cuts.\",\"timeRange\":\"2026-07-07T06:00:00.000Z to 2026-07-07T18:00:00.000Z\",\"title\":\"Market Analysts Highlight Increased Probability of September Rate Hike\",\"sources\":[{\"name\":\"Forbes\",\"url\":\"https://www.forbes.com/sites/simonmoore/2026/07/07/rate-hike-may-come-soon-on-market-estimates/\"}],\"outcome\":\"25 bps increase\",\"priceBefore\":31,\"priceAfter\":54},{\"timestamp\":\"2026-07-07 12:00:00+00\",\"unixTime\":1783425600,\"priceChange\":5,\"summary\":\"The New York Fed's June survey indicated that households' inflation expectations increased at the one- and three-year horizons, reflecting concerns about persistent inflation. This reinforced the Fed's cautious stance and market pricing for a potential rate hike in September.\",\"timeRange\":\"2026-07-07T06:00:00.000Z to 2026-07-07T18:00:00.000Z\",\"title\":\"New York Fed survey shows rising short- and medium-term inflation expectations in June\",\"sources\":[{\"name\":\"newyorkfed.org\",\"url\":\"https://www.newyorkfed.org/newsevents/news/research/2026/20260707\"}],\"outcome\":\"25 bps increase\",\"priceBefore\":28,\"priceAfter\":33},{\"timestamp\":\"2026-07-09 12:00:00+00\",\"unixTime\":1783598400,\"priceChange\":0,\"summary\":\"The Federal Reserve announced five task forces led by external advisers to examine key areas of monetary policy conduct. This initiative signaled a commitment to rigorous policy review and potential future adjustments, contributing to market anticipation of possible rate changes later in 2026.\",\"timeRange\":\"2026-07-09T06:00:00.000Z to 2026-07-09T18:00:00.000Z\",\"title\":\"Federal Reserve announces task forces to advance monetary policy conduct\",\"sources\":[{\"name\":\"Federal Reserve Board\",\"url\":\"https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20260709a.htm\"}],\"outcome\":null,\"priceBefore\":null,\"priceAfter\":null},{\"timestamp\":\"2026-07-13 12:00:00+00\",\"unixTime\":1783944000,\"priceChange\":28,\"summary\":\"Governor Lisa Cook highlighted that headline and core inflation for 2026 are running about 1 percentage point higher than expected, driven by core goods prices rising at a 5% annual pace, reinforcing the Fed's hawkish stance and market anticipation of a rate hike.\",\"timeRange\":\"2026-07-13T06:00:00.000Z to 2026-07-13T18:00:00.000Z\",\"title\":\"Governor Cook warns inflation remains above expectations for 2026\",\"sources\":[{\"name\":\"Federal Reserve\",\"url\":\"https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/cook20260715a.htm\"}],\"outcome\":\"25 bps increase\",\"priceBefore\":25,\"priceAfter\":53},{\"timestamp\":\"2026-07-13 12:00:00+00\",\"unixTime\":1783944000,\"priceChange\":2,\"summary\":\"Governor Cook highlighted stronger-than-expected GDP growth and inflation forecasts, reinforcing expectations that the Fed would maintain or cautiously adjust rates, influencing market sentiment toward no change or a modest hike.\",\"timeRange\":\"2026-07-13T06:00:00.000Z to 2026-07-13T18:00:00.000Z\",\"title\":\"Speech by Governor Cook emphasizes resilient economic growth and inflation outlook\",\"sources\":[{\"name\":\"Federal Reserve Board\",\"url\":\"https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/cook20260715a.htm\"}],\"outcome\":\"No change\",\"priceBefore\":57,\"priceAfter\":59},{\"timestamp\":\"2026-07-13 12:00:00+00\",\"unixTime\":1783944000,\"priceChange\":13,\"summary\":\"Federal Reserve Board Governor Christopher J. Waller and Vice Chair Michelle W. Bowman gave speeches emphasizing persistent inflation risks and the need for cautious monetary policy. These remarks contributed to market expectations of a potential rate hike later in 2026, increasing the probability of a 25 bps increase in September.\",\"timeRange\":\"2026-07-13T06:00:00.000Z to 2026-07-13T18:00:00.000Z\",\"title\":\"Federal Reserve Officials Deliver Hawkish Speeches Highlighting Inflation Risks\",\"sources\":[{\"name\":\"Federal Reserve Board\",\"url\":\"https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/waller20260713a.htm\"},{\"name\":\"Paul Hastings LLP\",\"url\":\"https://www.paulhastings.com/insights/ph-fedaction-financial-regulatory-updates-homepage/daily-financial-regulation-update-tuesday-july-14-2026\"}],\"outcome\":\"25 bps increase\",\"priceBefore\":38,\"priceAfter\":51},{\"timestamp\":\"2026-07-14 12:00:00+00\",\"unixTime\":1784030400,\"priceChange\":5,\"summary\":\"June's CPI report revealed a 0.4% monthly decline, the largest since April 2020, driven by falling energy prices. Annual inflation slowed to 3.5%, easing pressure on the Fed but not enough to prompt immediate rate cuts. This data contributed to market expectations of a possible 25 bps hike in September rather than a cut.\",\"timeRange\":\"2026-07-14T06:00:00.000Z to 2026-07-14T18:00:00.000Z\",\"title\":\"Consumer Price Index shows biggest monthly decline in over six years in June\",\"sources\":[{\"name\":\"CNBC\",\"url\":\"https://www.cnbc.com/2026/07/14/consumer-price-index-inflation-report-june-2026.html\"}],\"outcome\":\"25 bps increase\",\"priceBefore\":28,\"priceAfter\":33},{\"timestamp\":\"2026-07-14 12:00:00+00\",\"unixTime\":1784030400,\"priceChange\":13,\"summary\":\"Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh testified before the House Committee on Financial Services, emphasizing the Fed's commitment to price stability and signaling a cautious but hawkish stance. This reinforced market expectations for a possible rate hike in September, contributing to the rise in the 25 bps increase contract price.\",\"timeRange\":\"2026-07-14T06:00:00.000Z to 2026-07-14T18:00:00.000Z\",\"title\":\"House Financial Services Committee Hears Fed Chair Warsh Testimony on Monetary Policy\",\"sources\":[{\"name\":\"Paul Hastings LLP\",\"url\":\"https://www.paulhastings.com/insights/ph-fedaction-financial-regulatory-updates-homepage/daily-financial-regulation-update-wednesday-july-15-2026\"}],\"outcome\":\"25 bps increase\",\"priceBefore\":38,\"priceAfter\":51},{\"timestamp\":\"2026-07-14 12:00:00+00\",\"unixTime\":1784030400,\"priceChange\":0,\"summary\":\"The June 2026 Consumer Price Index showed inflation cooling to 3.5%, driven by a sharp drop in energy prices, providing the Fed some breathing room but leaving uncertainty due to geopolitical risks and core inflation remaining sticky.\",\"timeRange\":\"2026-07-14T06:00:00.000Z to 2026-07-14T18:00:00.000Z\",\"title\":\"June 2026 CPI inflation falls to 3.5%, below expectations\",\"sources\":[{\"name\":\"CNBC\",\"url\":\"https://www.cnbc.com/2026/07/14/consumer-price-index-inflation-report-june-2026.html\"}],\"outcome\":\"No change\",\"priceBefore\":12,\"priceAfter\":12},{\"timestamp\":\"2026-07-14 12:00:00+00\",\"unixTime\":1784030400,\"priceChange\":22,\"summary\":\"In speeches during July 2026, Chair Warsh emphasized the Fed's focus on price stability and the challenges posed by inflation and geopolitical risks, contributing to market expectations of a possible rate hike in September.\",\"timeRange\":\"2026-07-14T06:00:00.000Z to 2026-07-14T18:00:00.000Z\",\"title\":\"Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh Signals Hawkish Stance in July Speeches\",\"sources\":[{\"name\":\"Paul Hastings LLP\",\"url\":\"https://www.paulhastings.com/insights/ph-fedaction-financial-regulatory-updates-homepage/daily-financial-regulation-update-wednesday-july-15-2026\"}],\"outcome\":\"25 bps increase\",\"priceBefore\":16,\"priceAfter\":38},{\"timestamp\":\"2026-07-14 12:00:00+00\",\"unixTime\":1784030400,\"priceChange\":13,\"summary\":\"Kevin Warsh testified emphasizing the Fed's commitment to price stability and signaling that interest rate hikes may be necessary if inflation does not cool. This reinforced market expectations for a 25 bps increase in the near future, contributing to rising probabilities for a rate hike in September.\",\"timeRange\":\"2026-07-14T06:00:00.000Z to 2026-07-14T18:00:00.000Z\",\"title\":\"Fed Chair Kevin Warsh testifies before House Financial Services Committee\",\"sources\":[{\"name\":\"Paul Hastings LLP\",\"url\":\"https://www.paulhastings.com/insights/ph-fedaction-financial-regulatory-updates-homepage/daily-financial-regulation-update-wednesday-july-15-2026\"}],\"outcome\":\"25 bps increase\",\"priceBefore\":36,\"priceAfter\":49},{\"timestamp\":\"2026-07-14 12:00:00+00\",\"unixTime\":1784030400,\"priceChange\":-2,\"summary\":\"The Consumer Price Index for June 2026 showed a decline in inflation to 3.5%, below expectations, but core shelter inflation remained elevated. This data was closely watched ahead of the July FOMC meeting and influenced market expectations for the Fed's rate decision.\",\"timeRange\":\"2026-07-14T06:00:00.000Z to 2026-07-14T18:00:00.000Z\",\"title\":\"June CPI Inflation Falls to 3.5%, Below Forecast\",\"sources\":[{\"name\":\"Finance Calendar\",\"url\":\"https://www.financecalendar.com/event/us-cpi-report-july-2026/\"}],\"outcome\":\"No change\",\"priceBefore\":41,\"priceAfter\":39},{\"timestamp\":\"2026-07-14 12:00:00+00\",\"unixTime\":1784030400,\"priceChange\":2,\"summary\":\"Several Federal Reserve officials, including Vice Chair Michelle Bowman and Governor Michael Barr, gave speeches emphasizing the challenges of persistent inflation and the Fed's commitment to price stability. These communications reinforced market expectations for a cautious approach, supporting the probability of a rate hike later in 2026.\",\"timeRange\":\"2026-07-14T06:00:00.000Z to 2026-07-14T18:00:00.000Z\",\"title\":\"Fed Officials Deliver Speeches Highlighting Inflation Persistence and Economic Outlook\",\"sources\":[{\"name\":\"Paul Hastings LLP\",\"url\":\"https://www.paulhastings.com/insights/ph-fedaction-financial-regulatory-updates-homepage/daily-financial-regulation-update-wednesday-july-15-2026\"}],\"outcome\":\"25 bps increase\",\"priceBefore\":37,\"priceAfter\":39},{\"timestamp\":\"2026-07-14 12:00:00+00\",\"unixTime\":1784030400,\"priceChange\":22,\"summary\":\"The Consumer Price Index for June 2026 indicated inflation at 3.4% annually, slightly down from May but still above the Fed's 2% target, reinforcing expectations for continued vigilance on inflation and potential rate hikes.\",\"timeRange\":\"2026-07-14T06:00:00.000Z to 2026-07-14T18:00:00.000Z\",\"title\":\"June CPI Data Shows Inflation Remains Elevated at 3.4% Annual Rate\",\"sources\":[{\"name\":\"Forbes\",\"url\":\"https://www.forbes.com/sites/tylerroush/2026/07/30/feds-benchmark-inflation-measure-cooled-last-month-but-us-economy-slowed-in-second-quarter/\"}],\"outcome\":\"25 bps increase\",\"priceBefore\":16,\"priceAfter\":38},{\"timestamp\":\"2026-07-14 12:00:00+00\",\"unixTime\":1784030400,\"priceChange\":-2,\"summary\":\"The July 14 release of June CPI data showed a decline in headline inflation to 3.5%, below forecasts, but core shelter inflation stayed high, indicating ongoing inflationary pressures that support the Fed's cautious stance on rate changes.\",\"timeRange\":\"2026-07-14T06:00:00.000Z to 2026-07-14T18:00:00.000Z\",\"title\":\"June CPI report shows inflation falls to 3.5%, but core shelter inflation remains elevated\",\"sources\":[{\"name\":\"Finance Calendar\",\"url\":\"https://www.financecalendar.com/event/us-cpi-report-july-2026/\"}],\"outcome\":\"No change\",\"priceBefore\":61,\"priceAfter\":59},{\"timestamp\":\"2026-07-14 12:00:00+00\",\"unixTime\":1784030400,\"priceChange\":0,\"summary\":\"Chairman Kevin Warsh presented the semiannual Monetary Policy Report outlining the Fed's cautious stance on inflation and economic conditions. The report reinforced market expectations of steady or slightly higher rates, supporting the increased probability of a 25 bps hike in September.\",\"timeRange\":\"2026-07-14T06:00:00.000Z to 2026-07-14T18:00:00.000Z\",\"title\":\"Chairman Warsh Presents Semiannual Monetary Policy Report to Congress\",\"sources\":[{\"name\":\"Coinfomania\",\"url\":\"https://coinfomania.com/chairman-warsh-reveals-key-insights-from-monetary-policy-report/\"}],\"outcome\":\"25 bps increase\",\"priceBefore\":null,\"priceAfter\":null},{\"timestamp\":\"2026-07-14 12:00:00+00\",\"unixTime\":1784030400,\"priceChange\":15,\"summary\":\"Chairman Warsh's report underscored the Fed's commitment to price stability and maximum employment, signaling a hawkish stance that influenced market pricing toward a September rate increase.\",\"timeRange\":\"2026-07-14T06:00:00.000Z to 2026-07-14T18:00:00.000Z\",\"title\":\"Chairman Kevin Warsh presents semiannual Monetary Policy Report to Congress\",\"sources\":[{\"name\":\"Coinfomania\",\"url\":\"https://coinfomania.com/chairman-warsh-reveals-key-insights-from-monetary-policy-report/\"}],\"outcome\":\"25 bps increase\",\"priceBefore\":36,\"priceAfter\":51},{\"timestamp\":\"2026-07-15 12:00:00+00\",\"unixTime\":1784116800,\"priceChange\":7,\"summary\":\"In a speech, Governor Cook reported that GDP growth in 2025 was 2.0% and forecasted 2.2% for 2026, exceeding prior expectations. She emphasized booming labor productivity, reinforcing the Fed's view of a resilient economy, supporting the likelihood of a rate hike.\",\"timeRange\":\"2026-07-15T06:00:00.000Z to 2026-07-15T18:00:00.000Z\",\"title\":\"Governor Lisa D. Cook highlights strong GDP growth and labor productivity\",\"sources\":[{\"name\":\"Federal Reserve Board\",\"url\":\"https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/cook20260715a.htm\"}],\"outcome\":\"25 bps increase\",\"priceBefore\":42,\"priceAfter\":49},{\"timestamp\":\"2026-07-15 12:00:00+00\",\"unixTime\":1784116800,\"priceChange\":0,\"summary\":\"Governor Cook's speech emphasized stronger-than-expected GDP growth forecasts for 2026 and persistent inflation above target, driven by core goods prices and productivity growth. This reinforced market expectations that the Fed would maintain a cautious stance on rates, with potential hikes if inflation remains elevated.\",\"timeRange\":\"2026-07-15T06:00:00.000Z to 2026-07-15T18:00:00.000Z\",\"title\":\"Federal Reserve Governor Cook Highlights Economic Resilience and Inflation Challenges\",\"sources\":[{\"name\":\"Federal Reserve\",\"url\":\"https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/cook20260715a.htm\"}],\"outcome\":\"No change\",\"priceBefore\":null,\"priceAfter\":null},{\"timestamp\":\"2026-07-15 12:00:00+00\",\"unixTime\":1784116800,\"priceChange\":8,\"summary\":\"In a speech on July 15, Governor Lisa Cook highlighted that inflation remains well above the Fed's 2% target and supports maintaining restrictive monetary policy until stronger evidence of sustained disinflation emerges. This hawkish tone contributed to increased market pricing for a 25 bps rate hike.\",\"timeRange\":\"2026-07-15T06:00:00.000Z to 2026-07-15T18:00:00.000Z\",\"title\":\"Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook signals inflation risks outweigh employment concerns\",\"sources\":[{\"name\":\"Coingabbar\",\"url\":\"https://www.coingabbar.com/en/crypto-currency-news/federal-reserve-news-inflation-risk-cook-fed-rate-cut-july-2026\"}],\"outcome\":\"25 bps increase\",\"priceBefore\":45,\"priceAfter\":53},{\"timestamp\":\"2026-07-15 12:00:00+00\",\"unixTime\":1784116800,\"priceChange\":12,\"summary\":\"Chair Warsh emphasized the Fed's commitment to price stability and rejected the idea of a pause in rate changes, reinforcing market expectations for a possible 25 bps rate hike in September. His testimony highlighted inflation risks and geopolitical uncertainties, influencing the rise in market pricing for a September increase.\",\"timeRange\":\"2026-07-15T06:00:00.000Z to 2026-07-15T18:00:00.000Z\",\"title\":\"Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh signals hawkish stance amid inflation concerns\",\"sources\":[{\"name\":\"Polymarket\",\"url\":\"https://polymarket.copilot.markets/event/fed-decision-in-september-762\"}],\"outcome\":\"25 bps increase\",\"priceBefore\":39,\"priceAfter\":51},{\"timestamp\":\"2026-07-16 12:00:00+00\",\"unixTime\":1784203200,\"priceChange\":-2,\"summary\":\"Vice Chair Philip N. Jefferson highlighted the challenges the Fed faces balancing inflation control with economic growth amid ongoing geopolitical tensions and energy price volatility. His remarks underscored the Fed's cautious approach and the conditional nature of future rate decisions, influencing market expectations for September.\",\"timeRange\":\"2026-07-16T06:00:00.000Z to 2026-07-16T18:00:00.000Z\",\"title\":\"Fed Vice Chair Jefferson Discusses Navigating Economic Shocks Amid Inflation and Geopolitical Risks\",\"sources\":[{\"name\":\"Federal Reserve\",\"url\":\"https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents.htm\"}],\"outcome\":\"No change\",\"priceBefore\":45,\"priceAfter\":43},{\"timestamp\":\"2026-07-27 12:00:00+00\",\"unixTime\":1785153600,\"priceChange\":22,\"summary\":\"As of late July, market expectations increased for a 25 basis point rate hike at the September FOMC meeting, driven by persistent inflation pressures and geopolitical risks such as the conflict in the Middle East. The bond market reflected this with rising Treasury yields, and analysts highlighted the Fed's internal debate described by Chair Warsh as a \\\"family fight\\\" over future rate policy.\",\"timeRange\":\"2026-07-27T06:00:00.000Z to 2026-07-27T18:00:00.000Z\",\"title\":\"Rising market odds for a 25 bps Fed rate hike in September amid inflation and geopolitical tensions\",\"sources\":[{\"name\":\"The Gist Notes\",\"url\":\"https://thegistnotes.com/federal-reserve-faces-crucial-decision-on-interest-rates-amid-inflation-concerns/\"},{\"name\":\"Fox Business\",\"url\":\"https://www.foxbusiness.com/economy/federal-reserve-interest-rate-decision-july-29-2026\"}],\"outcome\":\"25 bps increase\",\"priceBefore\":28,\"priceAfter\":50},{\"timestamp\":\"2026-07-27 12:00:00+00\",\"unixTime\":1785153600,\"priceChange\":9,\"summary\":\"By late July 2026, market expectations for a 25 basis points rate increase in September rose to about 55%, driven by persistent inflation and tensions in the Middle East. This shift in sentiment contributed to the rising probability of the 25 bps increase outcome in the prediction market.\",\"timeRange\":\"2026-07-27T06:00:00.000Z to 2026-07-27T18:00:00.000Z\",\"title\":\"Market odds rise for 25 bps Fed rate hike in September amid inflation and geopolitical concerns\",\"sources\":[{\"name\":\"The Gist Notes\",\"url\":\"https://thegistnotes.com/federal-reserve-faces-crucial-decision-on-interest-rates-amid-inflation-concerns/\"}],\"outcome\":\"25 bps increase\",\"priceBefore\":50,\"priceAfter\":59},{\"timestamp\":\"2026-07-27 12:00:00+00\",\"unixTime\":1785153600,\"priceChange\":10,\"summary\":\"Investor expectations shifted toward a 55% probability of a 25 bps increase at the September FOMC meeting, driven by hawkish comments from Fed officials and persistent inflation concerns, reflected in rising prices for the 25 bps increase outcome in prediction markets.\",\"timeRange\":\"2026-07-27T06:00:00.000Z to 2026-07-27T18:00:00.000Z\",\"title\":\"Market anticipates 25 bps rate hike in September amid hawkish Fed signals\",\"sources\":[{\"name\":\"The Gist Notes\",\"url\":\"https://thegistnotes.com/federal-reserve-faces-crucial-decision-on-interest-rates-amid-inflation-concerns/\"}],\"outcome\":\"25 bps increase\",\"priceBefore\":38,\"priceAfter\":48},{\"timestamp\":\"2026-07-27 12:00:00+00\",\"unixTime\":1785153600,\"priceChange\":9,\"summary\":\"Escalating tensions between the U.S. and Iran, along with persistent inflationary pressures, increased market expectations for a 25 basis point rate hike at the September Fed meeting. Analysts noted that the labor market remained resilient, and inflation risks were elevated, prompting investors to price in a higher likelihood of rate increases.\",\"timeRange\":\"2026-07-27T06:00:00.000Z to 2026-07-27T18:00:00.000Z\",\"title\":\"Rising geopolitical tensions and inflation concerns influence Fed rate hike expectations\",\"sources\":[{\"name\":\"The Gist Notes\",\"url\":\"https://thegistnotes.com/federal-reserve-faces-crucial-decision-on-interest-rates-amid-inflation-concerns/\"}],\"outcome\":\"25 bps increase\",\"priceBefore\":36,\"priceAfter\":45},{\"timestamp\":\"2026-07-27 12:00:00+00\",\"unixTime\":1785153600,\"priceChange\":21,\"summary\":\"By late July, market data indicated a growing probability of a 25 bps rate increase in the September FOMC meeting, driven by persistent inflation pressures and geopolitical risks such as the US-Iran conflict. Analysts highlighted the Fed's internal debates and the possibility of tightening monetary policy if inflation remains elevated.\",\"timeRange\":\"2026-07-27T06:00:00.000Z to 2026-07-27T18:00:00.000Z\",\"title\":\"Rising market expectations for September Fed rate hike amid inflation and geopolitical tensions\",\"sources\":[{\"name\":\"The Gist Notes\",\"url\":\"https://thegistnotes.com/federal-reserve-faces-crucial-decision-on-interest-rates-amid-inflation-concerns/\"}],\"outcome\":\"25 bps increase\",\"priceBefore\":24,\"priceAfter\":45},{\"timestamp\":\"2026-07-27 12:00:00+00\",\"unixTime\":1785153600,\"priceChange\":8,\"summary\":\"As of late July, market data indicated a 55% probability of a 25 basis point rate increase at the September FOMC meeting, reflecting growing investor expectations for tightening monetary policy amid persistent inflation and geopolitical risks. This sentiment influenced the rising price for the 25 bps increase outcome in the prediction market.\",\"timeRange\":\"2026-07-27T06:00:00.000Z to 2026-07-27T18:00:00.000Z\",\"title\":\"Market Pricing Shows 55% Chance of 25 bps Fed Rate Hike in September 2026\",\"sources\":[{\"name\":\"The Gist Notes\",\"url\":\"https://thegistnotes.com/federal-reserve-faces-crucial-decision-on-interest-rates-amid-inflation-concerns/\"}],\"outcome\":\"25 bps increase\",\"priceBefore\":28,\"priceAfter\":36},{\"timestamp\":\"2026-07-27 12:00:00+00\",\"unixTime\":1785153600,\"priceChange\":6,\"summary\":\"As the September FOMC meeting approaches, market odds for a 25 bps rate hike increased to around 55%, reflecting concerns over inflation and geopolitical risks. This anticipation was driven by recent economic data and Fed officials' hawkish comments, impacting market pricing ahead of the meeting.\",\"timeRange\":\"2026-07-27T06:00:00.000Z to 2026-07-27T18:00:00.000Z\",\"title\":\"Market anticipates Fed rate hike in September amid inflation and geopolitical tensions\",\"sources\":[{\"name\":\"The Gist Notes\",\"url\":\"https://thegistnotes.com/federal-reserve-faces-crucial-decision-on-interest-rates-amid-inflation-concerns/\"}],\"outcome\":\"25 bps increase\",\"priceBefore\":31,\"priceAfter\":37},{\"timestamp\":\"2026-07-27 12:00:00+00\",\"unixTime\":1785153600,\"priceChange\":13,\"summary\":\"By late July 2026, investors increasingly expected a 25 bps rate hike at the September FOMC meeting, driven by persistent inflation, energy price volatility from Middle East tensions, and a resilient labor market. Market data showed a 55% chance of a 25 bps increase and 26% chance of a 50+ bps hike, reflecting growing hawkish sentiment.\",\"timeRange\":\"2026-07-27T06:00:00.000Z to 2026-07-27T18:00:00.000Z\",\"title\":\"Investors anticipate Fed rate hike in September amid inflation and geopolitical tensions\",\"sources\":[{\"name\":\"The Gist Notes\",\"url\":\"https://thegistnotes.com/federal-reserve-faces-crucial-decision-on-interest-rates-amid-inflation-concerns/\"}],\"outcome\":\"25 bps increase\",\"priceBefore\":41,\"priceAfter\":54},{\"timestamp\":\"2026-07-28 12:00:00+00\",\"unixTime\":1785240000,\"priceChange\":0,\"summary\":\"At the July 28-29 FOMC meeting, the Committee voted 9-3 to keep the federal funds rate target range unchanged, with three members dissenting in favor of a 25 basis points increase. The statement emphasized elevated inflation and data dependence for future decisions, reinforcing market anticipation of a potential September hike.\",\"timeRange\":\"2026-07-28T06:00:00.000Z to 2026-07-28T18:00:00.000Z\",\"title\":\"Federal Reserve holds rates at 3.50%-3.75% in divided 9-3 vote\",\"sources\":[{\"name\":\"ActionForex\",\"url\":\"https://www.actionforex.com/central-banks/federal-reserve/651177-fed-minutes-of-the-federal-open-market-committee-40/\"},{\"name\":\"Cambridge Currencies\",\"url\":\"https://cambridgecurrencies.com/next-federal-reserve-interest-rate-decision/\"}],\"outcome\":\"No change\",\"priceBefore\":43,\"priceAfter\":43},{\"timestamp\":\"2026-07-28 12:00:00+00\",\"unixTime\":1785240000,\"priceChange\":3,\"summary\":\"At the July 28–29 FOMC meeting, the Federal Reserve decided to maintain the federal funds target range at 3.50%–3.75%, with three officials dissenting in favor of a 25 basis points hike. This decision reinforced market expectations of no immediate change in September, supporting the 'No change' outcome.\",\"timeRange\":\"2026-07-28T06:00:00.000Z to 2026-07-28T18:00:00.000Z\",\"title\":\"Federal Reserve holds rates steady at 3.50%–3.75% in divided 9–3 vote\",\"sources\":[{\"name\":\"Cambridge Currencies\",\"url\":\"https://cambridgecurrencies.com/next-federal-reserve-interest-rate-decision/\"}],\"outcome\":\"No change\",\"priceBefore\":56,\"priceAfter\":59},{\"timestamp\":\"2026-07-28 12:00:00+00\",\"unixTime\":1785240000,\"priceChange\":-7,\"summary\":\"Ahead of the July 28-29 FOMC meeting, market participants anticipated a cautious Fed stance with a 62% probability of no change and 38% chance of a rate hike. The Fed faced a \\\"family fight\\\" over policy direction amid mixed inflation and labor market data, setting the stage for September decisions.\",\"timeRange\":\"2026-07-28T06:00:00.000Z to 2026-07-28T18:00:00.000Z\",\"title\":\"Fed meeting preview highlights internal debate and market expectations for September rate move\",\"sources\":[{\"name\":\"The Gist Notes\",\"url\":\"https://thegistnotes.com/federal-reserve-faces-crucial-decision-on-interest-rates-amid-inflation-concerns/\"}],\"outcome\":null,\"priceBefore\":31,\"priceAfter\":24},{\"timestamp\":\"2026-07-28 12:00:00+00\",\"unixTime\":1785240000,\"priceChange\":14,\"summary\":\"Ahead of the September meeting, Fed Chair Kevin Warsh described internal debates as a \\\"family fight\\\" over future rate moves, with investors increasingly anticipating a 25 bps hike due to persistent inflation and a resilient labor market. This contributed to rising market prices for the 25 bps increase outcome.\",\"timeRange\":\"2026-07-28T06:00:00.000Z to 2026-07-28T18:00:00.000Z\",\"title\":\"Fed leadership signals possible rate hike amid inflation and labor market concerns\",\"sources\":[{\"name\":\"The Gist Notes\",\"url\":\"https://thegistnotes.com/federal-reserve-faces-crucial-decision-on-interest-rates-amid-inflation-concerns/\"}],\"outcome\":\"25 bps increase\",\"priceBefore\":38,\"priceAfter\":52},{\"timestamp\":\"2026-07-29 12:00:00+00\",\"unixTime\":1785326400,\"priceChange\":0,\"summary\":\"At the July FOMC meeting, the Federal Reserve kept interest rates unchanged and announced the creation of five task forces to review monetary policy decision-making and communication, signaling a cautious approach amid persistent inflation and economic uncertainty.\",\"timeRange\":\"2026-07-29T06:00:00.000Z to 2026-07-29T18:00:00.000Z\",\"title\":\"Federal Reserve maintains interest rates and announces five task forces\",\"sources\":[{\"name\":\"Federal Reserve Board\",\"url\":\"https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents.htm\"}],\"outcome\":\"No change\",\"priceBefore\":null,\"priceAfter\":63},{\"timestamp\":\"2026-07-29 12:00:00+00\",\"unixTime\":1785326400,\"priceChange\":-2,\"summary\":\"The July FOMC meeting resulted in a 9-3 vote to keep rates steady, with three dissenters favoring a 25 bps hike due to inflation concerns. The statement's hawkish language caused some market volatility but ultimately reinforced the expectation of no change in September.\",\"timeRange\":\"2026-07-29T06:00:00.000Z to 2026-07-29T18:00:00.000Z\",\"title\":\"FOMC Maintains Federal Funds Rate at 3.5%–3.75% with Hawkish Tone\",\"sources\":[{\"name\":\"Ahmedabad Mirror\",\"url\":\"https://www.ahmedabadmirror.com/us-federal-reserve-holds-int-rates-steady/81918754.html\"}],\"outcome\":\"No change\",\"priceBefore\":42,\"priceAfter\":40},{\"timestamp\":\"2026-07-29 12:00:00+00\",\"unixTime\":1785326400,\"priceChange\":15,\"summary\":\"Following the July meeting, Fed Chair Kevin Warsh committed to continuing press conferences for the remainder of 2026, aiming to improve communication amid internal divisions and market volatility caused by inflation and geopolitical tensions. This transparency helped stabilize market expectations around the Fed's policy path.\",\"timeRange\":\"2026-07-29T06:00:00.000Z to 2026-07-29T18:00:00.000Z\",\"title\":\"Fed Chair Warsh commits to press conferences amid market volatility\",\"sources\":[{\"name\":\"Yahoo Finance\",\"url\":\"https://finance.yahoo.com/economy/live/fed-meeting-live-federal-reserve-july-interest-rate-decision-141813444.html\"}],\"outcome\":\"No change\",\"priceBefore\":53,\"priceAfter\":68},{\"timestamp\":\"2026-07-29 12:00:00+00\",\"unixTime\":1785326400,\"priceChange\":8,\"summary\":\"The Fed's unanimous decision to maintain the interest rate on reserve balances at 3.65% signaled continued monetary policy caution ahead of the September meeting, reinforcing expectations of no immediate rate hikes or cuts.\",\"timeRange\":\"2026-07-29T06:00:00.000Z to 2026-07-29T18:00:00.000Z\",\"title\":\"Federal Reserve announces maintenance of interest rate paid on reserve balances at 3.65%\",\"sources\":[{\"name\":\"Federal Reserve\",\"url\":\"https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/files/monetary20260729a1.pdf\"}],\"outcome\":\"No change\",\"priceBefore\":41,\"priceAfter\":49},{\"timestamp\":\"2026-07-29 12:00:00+00\",\"unixTime\":1785326400,\"priceChange\":42,\"summary\":\"At the July 29 meeting, the Fed kept rates unchanged but noted inflation remains above target and economic activity is solid, with some dissenters favoring a rate increase. This hawkish tone increased market expectations for a 25 bps hike in September.\",\"timeRange\":\"2026-07-29T06:00:00.000Z to 2026-07-29T18:00:00.000Z\",\"title\":\"FOMC holds rates steady but signals possible September hike\",\"sources\":[{\"name\":\"Quorum Private Wealth\",\"url\":\"https://quorumpw.com/insights/august-2026-market-update/\"}],\"outcome\":\"25 bps increase\",\"priceBefore\":12,\"priceAfter\":54},{\"timestamp\":\"2026-07-29 12:00:00+00\",\"unixTime\":1785326400,\"priceChange\":36,\"summary\":\"The Fed left rates unchanged at 3.5%-3.75% in a 9-3 vote despite ongoing inflation above target and energy price spikes due to the Iran war. The dissenters favored a 25 bps hike, reflecting ongoing debate and keeping markets uncertain about the September decision, which increased the probability of a rate hike.\",\"timeRange\":\"2026-07-29T06:00:00.000Z to 2026-07-29T18:00:00.000Z\",\"title\":\"Federal Reserve keeps interest rates unchanged amid inflation concerns\",\"sources\":[{\"name\":\"TT News\",\"url\":\"https://www.ttnews.com/articles/federal-reserve-july-hold\"}],\"outcome\":\"25 bps increase\",\"priceBefore\":16,\"priceAfter\":52},{\"timestamp\":\"2026-07-29 12:00:00+00\",\"unixTime\":1785326400,\"priceChange\":0,\"summary\":\"The Federal Reserve confirmed its monetary policy stance by maintaining the interest rate on reserve balances, signaling no immediate change to the federal funds rate ahead of the September meeting. This helped stabilize market expectations for no rate change.\",\"timeRange\":\"2026-07-29T06:00:00.000Z to 2026-07-29T18:00:00.000Z\",\"title\":\"Federal Reserve issues statement maintaining interest rate paid on reserve balances at 3.65%\",\"sources\":[{\"name\":\"Federal Reserve\",\"url\":\"https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/files/monetary20260729a1.pdf\"}],\"outcome\":\"No change\",\"priceBefore\":null,\"priceAfter\":null},{\"timestamp\":\"2026-07-29 12:00:00+00\",\"unixTime\":1785326400,\"priceChange\":-1,\"summary\":\"Chair Kevin Warsh described the July FOMC meeting as a 'good family fight' with three dissenters favoring a rate hike. He emphasized the Fed's commitment to price stability and avoided forward guidance, contributing to market uncertainty but ultimately supporting a hold on rates.\",\"timeRange\":\"2026-07-29T06:00:00.000Z to 2026-07-29T18:00:00.000Z\",\"title\":\"Fed Chair Warsh emphasizes price stability amid divided FOMC\",\"sources\":[{\"name\":\"FHLBank Boston\",\"url\":\"https://www.fhlbboston.com/strategies-insights/july-29-2026-fomc-meeting-analysis/\"}],\"outcome\":\"No change\",\"priceBefore\":56,\"priceAfter\":55},{\"timestamp\":\"2026-07-29 12:00:00+00\",\"unixTime\":1785326400,\"priceChange\":19,\"summary\":\"At the July 28-29 meeting, the FOMC voted 9-3 to hold the federal funds rate steady at 3.50%-3.75%, with some dissenters favoring a hike. The decision reflected ongoing concerns about inflation remaining above target, leading markets to price in a possible rate increase in September, which influenced the rise in the '25 bps increase' option price.\",\"timeRange\":\"2026-07-29T06:00:00.000Z to 2026-07-29T18:00:00.000Z\",\"title\":\"Federal Reserve Keeps Rates Unchanged at July Meeting Amid Inflation Concerns\",\"sources\":[{\"name\":\"Advisor Perspectives\",\"url\":\"https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2026/07/29/feds-interest-rate-decision-july-29-2026\"}],\"outcome\":\"25 bps increase\",\"priceBefore\":37,\"priceAfter\":56},{\"timestamp\":\"2026-07-29 12:00:00+00\",\"unixTime\":1785326400,\"priceChange\":-2,\"summary\":\"Following the July 29 decision to hold rates steady, markets reacted to the hawkish tone and dissenting votes by pricing in one to two rate hikes by the end of 2026, with September seen as the most likely timing. Treasury yields rose and the US dollar strengthened, reflecting expectations of a stronger USD if a September hike occurs.\",\"timeRange\":\"2026-07-29T06:00:00.000Z to 2026-07-29T18:00:00.000Z\",\"title\":\"Markets react to Fed's July hold with hawkish undertones and rate hike expectations\",\"sources\":[{\"name\":\"CNBC\",\"url\":\"https://www.cnbc.com/2026/07/29/fed-meeting-today-live-updates.html\"}],\"outcome\":\"No change\",\"priceBefore\":41,\"priceAfter\":39},{\"timestamp\":\"2026-07-29 12:00:00+00\",\"unixTime\":1785326400,\"priceChange\":-18,\"summary\":\"The Federal Open Market Committee voted 9–3 to maintain the target range for the federal funds rate, signaling a cautious approach amid ongoing inflation concerns. The dissenters' preference for a 25 bps increase highlighted internal divisions and kept the possibility of future hikes alive, influencing market pricing toward a no change or modest increase outcome.\",\"timeRange\":\"2026-07-29T06:00:00.000Z to 2026-07-29T18:00:00.000Z\",\"title\":\"FOMC holds federal funds rate steady at 3.50%–3.75% with three dissenters favoring hike\",\"sources\":[{\"name\":\"FinanceCalendar\",\"url\":\"https://www.financecalendar.com/event/fomc-rate-decision-july-2026/\"},{\"name\":\"Federal Reserve\",\"url\":\"https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomcpresconf20260729.htm\"}],\"outcome\":\"No change\",\"priceBefore\":59,\"priceAfter\":41},{\"timestamp\":\"2026-07-29 12:00:00+00\",\"unixTime\":1785326400,\"priceChange\":16,\"summary\":\"At the July 28-29 FOMC meeting, three members voted against maintaining the current rate, advocating for a 25 basis point increase due to elevated inflation. This dissent highlighted internal committee divisions and contributed to market uncertainty about the September decision.\",\"timeRange\":\"2026-07-29T06:00:00.000Z to 2026-07-29T18:00:00.000Z\",\"title\":\"Three FOMC members dissent, preferring a 25 bps rate hike at July meeting\",\"sources\":[{\"name\":\"ActionForex\",\"url\":\"https://www.actionforex.com/central-banks/federal-reserve/651177-fed-minutes-of-the-federal-open-market-committee-40/\"}],\"outcome\":\"No change\",\"priceBefore\":40,\"priceAfter\":56},{\"timestamp\":\"2026-07-29 12:00:00+00\",\"unixTime\":1785326400,\"priceChange\":32,\"summary\":\"At the July 29 FOMC meeting, the Fed maintained the federal funds rate target range at 3.50% to 3.75%, but three members dissented, preferring a 25 basis point increase. Chair Kevin Warsh emphasized that the hold was not a pause but part of ongoing policy evaluation, signaling a hawkish stance that increased market expectations for a September rate hike.\",\"timeRange\":\"2026-07-29T06:00:00.000Z to 2026-07-29T18:00:00.000Z\",\"title\":\"Federal Reserve holds rates steady at 3.50%-3.75% with three dissenters favoring hike\",\"sources\":[{\"name\":\"Federal Reserve Board\",\"url\":\"https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20260729a.htm\"},{\"name\":\"OrbitRemit\",\"url\":\"https://blog.orbitremit.com/fed-holds-rates-federal-reserve-july-2026/\"}],\"outcome\":\"25 bps increase\",\"priceBefore\":28,\"priceAfter\":60},{\"timestamp\":\"2026-07-29 12:00:00+00\",\"unixTime\":1785326400,\"priceChange\":28,\"summary\":\"Chair Kevin Warsh explicitly rejected the idea of a pause in rate changes, describing the July hold as the beginning of a story. His hawkish tone led markets to price in one to two rate hikes by the end of 2026, with September seen as the most likely timing for the first increase.\",\"timeRange\":\"2026-07-29T06:00:00.000Z to 2026-07-29T18:00:00.000Z\",\"title\":\"Fed Chair Warsh rejects pause, signals possible rate hikes in September\",\"sources\":[{\"name\":\"CNBC\",\"url\":\"https://blog.orbitremit.com/fed-holds-rates-federal-reserve-july-2026/\"}],\"outcome\":\"No change\",\"priceBefore\":39,\"priceAfter\":67},{\"timestamp\":\"2026-07-29 12:00:00+00\",\"unixTime\":1785326400,\"priceChange\":22,\"summary\":\"On July 29, 2026, the Federal Reserve again held the federal funds rate at 3.50%–3.75% in a 9-3 vote, with three members dissenting for a 25 basis point increase. Chair Warsh rejected the notion of a pause, framing the decision as a rigorous review and signaling that rate hikes remain possible, which led markets to price in a likely September hike.\",\"timeRange\":\"2026-07-29T06:00:00.000Z to 2026-07-29T18:00:00.000Z\",\"title\":\"Fed holds rates steady with three dissenters favoring a hike\",\"sources\":[{\"name\":\"CNBC\",\"url\":\"https://www.cnbc.com/2026/07/29/fed-meeting-today-live-updates.html\"},{\"name\":\"OrbitRemit\",\"url\":\"https://blog.orbitremit.com/fed-holds-rates-federal-reserve-july-2026/\"}],\"outcome\":\"No change\",\"priceBefore\":46,\"priceAfter\":68},{\"timestamp\":\"2026-07-29 12:00:00+00\",\"unixTime\":1785326400,\"priceChange\":14,\"summary\":\"At the July 29 meeting, the FOMC voted 9-3 to keep rates steady at 3.50%-3.75%, but three regional Fed presidents dissented, preferring a 25 basis point increase. Chair Kevin Warsh emphasized the decision was a 'rigorous review' rather than a pause, signaling that a September hike remained on the table, which shifted market expectations toward a likely increase.\",\"timeRange\":\"2026-07-29T06:00:00.000Z to 2026-07-29T18:00:00.000Z\",\"title\":\"Federal Reserve Holds Rates at 3.50%-3.75% with Three Dissenters Favoring Hike\",\"sources\":[{\"name\":\"CNBC\",\"url\":\"https://www.cnbc.com/2026/07/29/fed-meeting-today-live-updates.html\"},{\"name\":\"OrbitRemit\",\"url\":\"https://blog.orbitremit.com/fed-holds-rates-federal-reserve-july-2026/\"}],\"outcome\":\"25 bps increase\",\"priceBefore\":26,\"priceAfter\":40},{\"timestamp\":\"2026-07-29 12:00:00+00\",\"unixTime\":1785326400,\"priceChange\":-10,\"summary\":\"The July 28-29 FOMC meeting concluded with the Fed holding rates steady at 3.5%–3.75%, but with a 9-3 vote showing dissenters favoring a 25 bps hike. This split highlighted internal Fed divisions and contributed to market uncertainty, reflected in fluctuating probabilities for rate changes.\",\"timeRange\":\"2026-07-29T06:00:00.000Z to 2026-07-29T18:00:00.000Z\",\"title\":\"FOMC July meeting ends with no rate change but notable dissent\",\"sources\":[{\"name\":\"Emergency Fund Calculator\",\"url\":\"https://emergencyfundcalculator.com/fed-interest-rate-decision-august-2026/\"}],\"outcome\":\"No change\",\"priceBefore\":74,\"priceAfter\":64},{\"timestamp\":\"2026-07-29 12:00:00+00\",\"unixTime\":1785326400,\"priceChange\":23,\"summary\":\"On July 29, 2026, the Federal Reserve voted 9-3 to keep rates at 3.50%-3.75%, with three members dissenting in favor of a 25 basis point increase. Chair Kevin Warsh rejected the notion of a pause, framing the decision as a review period, and markets immediately priced in a likely September hike, reflecting ongoing inflation concerns and energy price pressures.\",\"timeRange\":\"2026-07-29T06:00:00.000Z to 2026-07-29T18:00:00.000Z\",\"title\":\"Fed holds rates steady in July with three dissenters favoring a hike\",\"sources\":[{\"name\":\"CNBC\",\"url\":\"https://www.cnbc.com/2026/07/29/fed-meeting-today-live-updates.html\"}],\"outcome\":\"No change\",\"priceBefore\":40,\"priceAfter\":63},{\"timestamp\":\"2026-07-29 12:00:00+00\",\"unixTime\":1785326400,\"priceChange\":12,\"summary\":\"Following the Fed's decision, Treasury yields spiked and stock markets fell sharply, reflecting investor uncertainty and increased expectations for future rate hikes. This market reaction contributed to the rising probability of a 25 bps increase in the September meeting.\",\"timeRange\":\"2026-07-29T06:00:00.000Z to 2026-07-29T18:00:00.000Z\",\"title\":\"Market Reacts Sharply to Fed's Decision to Hold Rates Steady\",\"sources\":[{\"name\":\"Yahoo Finance\",\"url\":\"https://finance.yahoo.com/economy/live/fed-meeting-live-federal-reserve-july-interest-rate-decision-141813444.html\"}],\"outcome\":\"25 bps increase\",\"priceBefore\":38,\"priceAfter\":50},{\"timestamp\":\"2026-07-29 12:00:00+00\",\"unixTime\":1785326400,\"priceChange\":5,\"summary\":\"The Fed maintained the federal funds rate at 3.50%–3.75% during the July 28-29 meeting, with some dissenting votes favoring a quarter-point increase. Inflation remained elevated, and the Fed signaled a data-dependent approach, causing market probabilities for a 25 bps increase to rise significantly.\",\"timeRange\":\"2026-07-29T06:00:00.000Z to 2026-07-29T18:00:00.000Z\",\"title\":\"Federal Reserve Holds Rates at 3.50%–3.75% in July Meeting Amid Inflation Concerns\",\"sources\":[{\"name\":\"Finance Calendar\",\"url\":\"https://www.financecalendar.com/fomc-meetings/\"}],\"outcome\":\"No change\",\"priceBefore\":56,\"priceAfter\":61},{\"timestamp\":\"2026-07-29 12:00:00+00\",\"unixTime\":1785326400,\"priceChange\":7,\"summary\":\"Following the July 29 meeting, Fed Chair Kevin Warsh committed to holding press conferences for the remainder of 2026, signaling transparency and ongoing communication about monetary policy. This helped markets interpret the Fed's cautious stance and hawkish outlook, affecting expectations for future rate moves.\",\"timeRange\":\"2026-07-29T06:00:00.000Z to 2026-07-29T18:00:00.000Z\",\"title\":\"Fed Chair Kevin Warsh Commits to Press Conferences Amid Rate Decision\",\"sources\":[{\"name\":\"CNBC\",\"url\":\"https://www.cnbc.com/2026/07/29/fed-meeting-today-live-updates.html\"}],\"outcome\":\"No change\",\"priceBefore\":56,\"priceAfter\":63},{\"timestamp\":\"2026-07-29 12:00:00+00\",\"unixTime\":1785326400,\"priceChange\":11,\"summary\":\"The Federal Reserve maintained the federal funds rate at 3.5% to 3.75% during the July 28-29 meeting. The decision was supported by a majority but faced dissent from three members advocating a 25 bps increase due to ongoing inflation concerns, signaling some internal division.\",\"timeRange\":\"2026-07-29T06:00:00.000Z to 2026-07-29T18:00:00.000Z\",\"title\":\"FOMC holds rates steady at July meeting with 9-3 vote\",\"sources\":[{\"name\":\"federalreserve.gov\",\"url\":\"https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomcminutes20260729.htm\"}],\"outcome\":\"No change\",\"priceBefore\":44,\"priceAfter\":55},{\"timestamp\":\"2026-07-29 12:00:00+00\",\"unixTime\":1785326400,\"priceChange\":16,\"summary\":\"Chair Kevin Warsh described internal Fed debates as a 'family fight' reflecting differing views on inflation risks and rate policy. The Fed scrapped forward guidance, increasing uncertainty about future moves. Elevated inflation driven by energy prices and Middle East tensions contributed to market expectations of a possible rate hike in September.\",\"timeRange\":\"2026-07-29T06:00:00.000Z to 2026-07-29T18:00:00.000Z\",\"title\":\"Fed Chair Warsh signals ongoing 'family fight' over rate policy amid inflation and geopolitical risks\",\"sources\":[{\"name\":\"The Gist Notes\",\"url\":\"https://thegistnotes.com/federal-reserve-faces-crucial-decision-on-interest-rates-amid-inflation-concerns/\"}],\"outcome\":\"25 bps increase\",\"priceBefore\":40,\"priceAfter\":56},{\"timestamp\":\"2026-07-29 12:00:00+00\",\"unixTime\":1785326400,\"priceChange\":-3,\"summary\":\"Following the July 29 FOMC meeting, Chair Kevin Warsh emphasized the Fed's commitment to controlling inflation and indicated a cautious, data-dependent approach. His remarks contributed to market uncertainty but kept the door open for a September hike.\",\"timeRange\":\"2026-07-29T06:00:00.000Z to 2026-07-29T18:00:00.000Z\",\"title\":\"Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's press conference emphasizes inflation control and cautious outlook\",\"sources\":[{\"name\":\"The New York Times\",\"url\":\"https://www.nytimes.com/live/2026/07/29/business/fed-meeting-rates-kevin-warsh\"}],\"outcome\":\"No change\",\"priceBefore\":53,\"priceAfter\":50},{\"timestamp\":\"2026-07-29 12:00:00+00\",\"unixTime\":1785326400,\"priceChange\":4,\"summary\":\"The July FOMC meeting ended with the Fed holding rates steady, but three regional Fed presidents dissented, favoring a rate hike. This unusual split highlighted uncertainty and contributed to increased market expectations for a possible 25 bps increase in September.\",\"timeRange\":\"2026-07-29T06:00:00.000Z to 2026-07-29T18:00:00.000Z\",\"title\":\"Fed holds rates at 3.50%-3.75% with 9-3 vote, dissenters favor hike\",\"sources\":[{\"name\":\"Emergency Fund Calculator\",\"url\":\"https://emergencyfundcalculator.com/fed-interest-rate-decision-august-2026/\"}],\"outcome\":\"25 bps increase\",\"priceBefore\":23,\"priceAfter\":27},{\"timestamp\":\"2026-07-29 12:00:00+00\",\"unixTime\":1785326400,\"priceChange\":22,\"summary\":\"At the July FOMC meeting, new Chair Kevin Warsh confirmed the committee's decision to keep rates unchanged at 3.50%-3.75%, emphasizing the Fed's readiness to act if inflation pressures persist. The meeting highlighted internal divisions with some members favoring hikes, but the overall stance was a cautious pause, influencing market pricing toward no change or a modest hike.\",\"timeRange\":\"2026-07-29T06:00:00.000Z to 2026-07-29T18:00:00.000Z\",\"title\":\"New Fed Chair Kevin Warsh signals vigilance on inflation, holds rates steady\",\"sources\":[{\"name\":\"CNBC\",\"url\":\"https://www.cnbc.com/2026/07/29/fed-meeting-today-live-updates.html\"}],\"outcome\":\"No change\",\"priceBefore\":41,\"priceAfter\":63},{\"timestamp\":\"2026-07-29 12:00:00+00\",\"unixTime\":1785326400,\"priceChange\":15,\"summary\":\"At the July FOMC meeting, the Fed again held rates steady at 3.50%–3.75%, despite three dissenting votes favoring a 25 bps hike. Inflation remained elevated due to energy price shocks from the U.S.-Iran conflict, maintaining market uncertainty but leaning toward no change or a modest increase.\",\"timeRange\":\"2026-07-29T06:00:00.000Z to 2026-07-29T18:00:00.000Z\",\"title\":\"Federal Reserve keeps rates unchanged amid inflation concerns and internal dissent\",\"sources\":[{\"name\":\"NPR\",\"url\":\"https://www.npr.org/2026/07/29/nx-s1-5910558/federal-reserve-interest-rates-inflation\"},{\"name\":\"The Gist Notes\",\"url\":\"https://thegistnotes.com/federal-reserve-faces-crucial-decision-on-interest-rates-amid-inflation-concerns/\"}],\"outcome\":\"No change\",\"priceBefore\":39,\"priceAfter\":54},{\"timestamp\":\"2026-07-29 12:00:00+00\",\"unixTime\":1785326400,\"priceChange\":5,\"summary\":\"Following the July meeting, Chair Warsh explicitly rejected the idea of a pause and indicated that the hold was just the beginning of the story, with markets pricing in one to two rate hikes by the end of 2026, most likely starting in September. This hawkish stance pushed market probabilities toward a 25 bps increase in the near term.\",\"timeRange\":\"2026-07-29T06:00:00.000Z to 2026-07-29T18:00:00.000Z\",\"title\":\"Fed Chair Warsh Signals Possible Rate Hike in September After July Hold\",\"sources\":[{\"name\":\"OrbitRemit\",\"url\":\"https://blog.orbitremit.com/fed-holds-rates-federal-reserve-july-2026/\"},{\"name\":\"usbank.com\",\"url\":\"https://www.usbank.com/investing/financial-perspectives/market-news/federal-reserve-interest-rate.html\"}],\"outcome\":\"25 bps increase\",\"priceBefore\":28,\"priceAfter\":33},{\"timestamp\":\"2026-07-29 12:00:00+00\",\"unixTime\":1785326400,\"priceChange\":0,\"summary\":\"The July FOMC meeting resulted in no rate change but featured three dissenting votes for a hike, signaling internal Fed caution about inflation. This split vote contributed to market uncertainty and fluctuating probabilities between 'No change' and '25 bps increase'.\",\"timeRange\":\"2026-07-29T06:00:00.000Z to 2026-07-29T18:00:00.000Z\",\"title\":\"FOMC holds federal funds rate steady at 3.50%-3.75% with 9-3 vote, dissenters favor hike\",\"sources\":[{\"name\":\"Emergency Fund Calculator\",\"url\":\"https://emergencyfundcalculator.com/fed-interest-rate-decision-august-2026/\"}],\"outcome\":null,\"priceBefore\":61,\"priceAfter\":61},{\"timestamp\":\"2026-07-29 12:00:00+00\",\"unixTime\":1785326400,\"priceChange\":25,\"summary\":\"At his second meeting as Fed Chair, Kevin Warsh declared a firm stance against elevated inflation, reinforcing expectations for a possible rate hike in September despite the July hold. This hawkish tone influenced market pricing toward a 25 bps increase.\",\"timeRange\":\"2026-07-29T06:00:00.000Z to 2026-07-29T18:00:00.000Z\",\"title\":\"Fed Chair Kevin Warsh emphasizes no tolerance for elevated inflation\",\"sources\":[{\"name\":\"The New York Times\",\"url\":\"https://www.nytimes.com/live/2026/07/29/business/fed-meeting-rates-kevin-warsh\"}],\"outcome\":\"25 bps increase\",\"priceBefore\":26,\"priceAfter\":51},{\"timestamp\":\"2026-07-29 12:00:00+00\",\"unixTime\":1785326400,\"priceChange\":18,\"summary\":\"The July 28-29 FOMC meeting resulted in a unanimous decision to keep rates steady at 3.50%-3.75% and maintain the interest rate on reserve balances at 3.65%. The Fed continued its policy of maintaining ample reserves and refrained from providing forward guidance, reinforcing the market's view that a modest rate hike is likely in the near future, supporting the rise in probability for a 25 bps increase in September.\",\"timeRange\":\"2026-07-29T06:00:00.000Z to 2026-07-29T18:00:00.000Z\",\"title\":\"Federal Reserve maintains rates at 3.50%-3.75% with no forward guidance\",\"sources\":[{\"name\":\"Federal Reserve\",\"url\":\"https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20260729a1.htm\"}],\"outcome\":\"25 bps increase\",\"priceBefore\":38,\"priceAfter\":56},{\"timestamp\":\"2026-07-29 12:00:00+00\",\"unixTime\":1785326400,\"priceChange\":10,\"summary\":\"The Fed maintained the target range at 3.50%-3.75% in July, with inflation remaining above target and some members favoring further tightening. The decision reflected ongoing uncertainty and diverse views on future rate moves.\",\"timeRange\":\"2026-07-29T06:00:00.000Z to 2026-07-29T18:00:00.000Z\",\"title\":\"US Federal Reserve holds interest rates steady in July 2026 amid inflation concerns\",\"sources\":[{\"name\":\"Scotiabank\",\"url\":\"https://www.scotiagam.com/en/home/insights/us-federal-reserve-holds-interest-rates-steady-in-july-2026.html\"}],\"outcome\":\"No change\",\"priceBefore\":39,\"priceAfter\":49},{\"timestamp\":\"2026-07-29 12:00:00+00\",\"unixTime\":1785326400,\"priceChange\":-3,\"summary\":\"The Fed voted 9-3 to keep rates unchanged amid persistent inflation and a spike in energy prices caused by the Middle East conflict. Three regional Fed presidents dissented, favoring a 25 basis point hike, signaling ongoing debate and hawkish pressure ahead of September.\",\"timeRange\":\"2026-07-29T06:00:00.000Z to 2026-07-29T18:00:00.000Z\",\"title\":\"Federal Reserve holds interest rates steady at 3.50%-3.75% despite inflation and energy price spikes\",\"sources\":[{\"name\":\"Associated Press\",\"url\":\"https://www.ttnews.com/articles/federal-reserve-july-hold\"},{\"name\":\"Federal Reserve\",\"url\":\"https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20260729a.htm\"}],\"outcome\":\"No change\",\"priceBefore\":53,\"priceAfter\":50},{\"timestamp\":\"2026-07-29 12:00:00+00\",\"unixTime\":1785326400,\"priceChange\":16,\"summary\":\"Following the July 29 meeting, Fed Chair Kevin Warsh described the internal debate as a 'good family fight' and reiterated the Fed's commitment to price stability, emphasizing there is no 'soft inflation target.' This communication reinforced market expectations of potential rate hikes if inflation remains elevated, influencing the rise in the 25 bps increase probability.\",\"timeRange\":\"2026-07-29T06:00:00.000Z to 2026-07-29T18:00:00.000Z\",\"title\":\"Fed Chair Kevin Warsh Highlights Intense Debate and Commitment to Inflation Control\",\"sources\":[{\"name\":\"CBS News\",\"url\":\"https://www.cbsnews.com/news/federal-reserve-interest-rates-kevin-warsh-july-206/\"}],\"outcome\":\"25 bps increase\",\"priceBefore\":37,\"priceAfter\":53},{\"timestamp\":\"2026-07-29 12:00:00+00\",\"unixTime\":1785326400,\"priceChange\":4,\"summary\":\"During the July 29 press conference, Chair Kevin Warsh reiterated the Fed's commitment to price stability and acknowledged the divided views within the committee. His remarks reinforced market expectations for a possible rate hike in September if inflation remains elevated.\",\"timeRange\":\"2026-07-29T06:00:00.000Z to 2026-07-29T18:00:00.000Z\",\"title\":\"Fed Chair Warsh emphasizes commitment to 2% inflation target amid divided Fed\",\"sources\":[{\"name\":\"Forex Factory\",\"url\":\"https://www.forexfactory.com/news/1410791-fomc-press-conference-july-29-2026\"}],\"outcome\":\"25 bps increase\",\"priceBefore\":56,\"priceAfter\":60},{\"timestamp\":\"2026-07-29 12:00:00+00\",\"unixTime\":1785326400,\"priceChange\":12,\"summary\":\"Minutes from the July 28-29 FOMC meeting revealed that most participants favored keeping the federal funds rate steady at 3.50%-3.75%, with some dissenters preferring a rate hike. The discussion of inflation risks and balance sheet policy contributed to market anticipation of a moderate rate increase in September.\",\"timeRange\":\"2026-07-29T06:00:00.000Z to 2026-07-29T18:00:00.000Z\",\"title\":\"July FOMC Meeting Minutes Show Majority Support for Maintaining Rates\",\"sources\":[{\"name\":\"Federal Reserve\",\"url\":\"https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomcminutes20260729.htm\"}],\"outcome\":\"25 bps increase\",\"priceBefore\":42,\"priceAfter\":54},{\"timestamp\":\"2026-07-29 12:00:00+00\",\"unixTime\":1785326400,\"priceChange\":15,\"summary\":\"Following the July FOMC meeting, Chair Kevin Warsh explicitly rejected the idea of a pause in rate changes, describing the hold as the beginning of a story and signaling that rate hikes remain possible. This hawkish tone led markets to price in one to two rate hikes by the end of 2026, with September seen as the most likely timing for the first increase.\",\"timeRange\":\"2026-07-29T06:00:00.000Z to 2026-07-29T18:00:00.000Z\",\"title\":\"Fed Chair Kevin Warsh signals hawkish stance, rejecting pause in rate hikes\",\"sources\":[{\"name\":\"Polymarket Analysis\",\"url\":\"https://polymarket.copilot.markets/event/fed-decision-in-september-762\"}],\"outcome\":\"25 bps increase\",\"priceBefore\":26,\"priceAfter\":41},{\"timestamp\":\"2026-07-29 12:00:00+00\",\"unixTime\":1785326400,\"priceChange\":24,\"summary\":\"The July 29, 2026 FOMC statement maintained the federal funds rate at 3.50%–3.75%, with a 9–3 vote. The statement noted inflation remains elevated relative to the 2% goal, partly due to supply shocks including energy. The dissenters' preference for a 25 bps increase signaled growing hawkish sentiment, influencing market expectations for a possible September hike.\",\"timeRange\":\"2026-07-29T06:00:00.000Z to 2026-07-29T18:00:00.000Z\",\"title\":\"FOMC holds rates at 3.50%–3.75% with dissenters favoring a quarter-point hike\",\"sources\":[{\"name\":\"Polymarkettrader\",\"url\":\"https://polymarkettrader.com/events/fed-fomc-october-2026/\"}],\"outcome\":\"25 bps increase\",\"priceBefore\":16,\"priceAfter\":40},{\"timestamp\":\"2026-07-29 12:00:00+00\",\"unixTime\":1785326400,\"priceChange\":3,\"summary\":\"On July 29, 2026, the Fed again held rates steady at 3.50%–3.75% in a 9-3 vote, with three members dissenting for a 25 bps increase. Chair Warsh rejected the notion of a pause, framing the decision as a review before potential hikes, which led markets to price in a likely rate increase at the September meeting.\",\"timeRange\":\"2026-07-29T06:00:00.000Z to 2026-07-29T18:00:00.000Z\",\"title\":\"Federal Reserve holds rates with three dissenters favoring hike\",\"sources\":[{\"name\":\"CNBC\",\"url\":\"https://www.cnbc.com/2026/07/29/fed-meeting-today-live-updates.html\"},{\"name\":\"OrbitRemit\",\"url\":\"https://blog.orbitremit.com/fed-holds-rates-federal-reserve-july-2026/\"}],\"outcome\":\"No change\",\"priceBefore\":42,\"priceAfter\":45},{\"timestamp\":\"2026-07-29 12:00:00+00\",\"unixTime\":1785326400,\"priceChange\":26,\"summary\":\"At the July 29, 2026 FOMC meeting, the Fed held rates steady at 3.50%-3.75% in a 9-3 vote, with three regional Fed presidents dissenting for a 25 bps hike. Chair Kevin Warsh rejected the notion of a pause, signaling ongoing inflation concerns and keeping a September hike on the table.\",\"timeRange\":\"2026-07-29T06:00:00.000Z to 2026-07-29T18:00:00.000Z\",\"title\":\"Federal Reserve holds rates steady at 3.50%-3.75% with three dissenters favoring hike\",\"sources\":[{\"name\":\"CNBC\",\"url\":\"https://www.cnbc.com/2026/07/29/fed-interest-rate-decision-july-2026.html\"},{\"name\":\"OrbitRemit\",\"url\":\"https://blog.orbitremit.com/fed-holds-rates-federal-reserve-july-2026/\"}],\"outcome\":\"No change\",\"priceBefore\":39,\"priceAfter\":65},{\"timestamp\":\"2026-07-29 12:00:00+00\",\"unixTime\":1785326400,\"priceChange\":24,\"summary\":\"On July 29, 2026, the Federal Reserve decided to keep the federal funds target range unchanged at 3.50%–3.75%, with three officials dissenting in favor of a 0.25-point increase. This decision reflected a split within the FOMC and influenced market expectations for the September meeting, increasing the likelihood of a rate hike.\",\"timeRange\":\"2026-07-29T06:00:00.000Z to 2026-07-29T18:00:00.000Z\",\"title\":\"Federal Reserve holds interest rates steady at 3.50–3.75% in divided 9–3 vote\",\"sources\":[{\"name\":\"Cambridge Currencies\",\"url\":\"https://cambridgecurrencies.com/next-federal-reserve-interest-rate-decision/\"}],\"outcome\":\"25 bps increase\",\"priceBefore\":35,\"priceAfter\":59},{\"timestamp\":\"2026-07-29 12:00:00+00\",\"unixTime\":1785326400,\"priceChange\":3,\"summary\":\"The July 28–29 FOMC minutes highlighted that inflation remained elevated and that the Committee was resolved to maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 3.50%–3.75%. The minutes noted supply shocks and energy price increases but emphasized the commitment to price stability, influencing market confidence in no rate change.\",\"timeRange\":\"2026-07-29T06:00:00.000Z to 2026-07-29T18:00:00.000Z\",\"title\":\"FOMC minutes reveal inflation concerns and resolve to maintain rates\",\"sources\":[{\"name\":\"ActionForex\",\"url\":\"https://www.actionforex.com/central-banks/federal-reserve/651177-fed-minutes-of-the-federal-open-market-committee-40/\"}],\"outcome\":\"No change\",\"priceBefore\":56,\"priceAfter\":59},{\"timestamp\":\"2026-07-29 12:00:00+00\",\"unixTime\":1785326400,\"priceChange\":-13,\"summary\":\"The FOMC meeting on July 28-29 resulted in a decision to maintain the federal funds rate target range unchanged, with nine members supporting the pause and three dissenting in favor of a 25 basis point hike. The statement emphasized ongoing elevated inflation and solid economic growth, reinforcing a cautious but hawkish stance ahead of the September meeting.\",\"timeRange\":\"2026-07-29T06:00:00.000Z to 2026-07-29T18:00:00.000Z\",\"title\":\"Federal Reserve keeps interest rates steady at 3.50%-3.75% in July FOMC meeting\",\"sources\":[{\"name\":\"Federal Reserve Board\",\"url\":\"https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomcminutes20260729.htm\"},{\"name\":\"Ahmedabad Mirror\",\"url\":\"https://www.ahmedabadmirror.com/us-federal-reserve-holds-int-rates-steady/81918754.html\"}],\"outcome\":\"No change\",\"priceBefore\":56,\"priceAfter\":43},{\"timestamp\":\"2026-08-01 12:00:00+00\",\"unixTime\":1785585600,\"priceChange\":14,\"summary\":\"A temporary pause in U.S.-Iran hostilities in early August 2026 led to a decline in oil prices and reduced near-term inflation fears. This development contributed to market reassessment of Fed rate hike probabilities, slightly lowering the odds of aggressive tightening.\",\"timeRange\":\"2026-08-01T06:00:00.000Z to 2026-08-01T18:00:00.000Z\",\"title\":\"Geopolitical tensions ease as U.S.-Iran hostilities pause, easing inflation concerns\",\"sources\":[{\"name\":\"headlinez.news\",\"url\":\"https://headlinez.news/topic/federal-reserve\"}],\"outcome\":\"No change\",\"priceBefore\":39,\"priceAfter\":53},{\"timestamp\":\"2026-08-01 12:00:00+00\",\"unixTime\":1785585600,\"priceChange\":21,\"summary\":\"Following the July Fed decision, markets showed volatility influenced by easing U.S.-Iran hostilities and fluctuating oil prices, which affected inflation outlooks and Fed rate expectations. This contributed to price movements favoring 'No change' and '25 bps increase' outcomes as investors reassessed risks.\",\"timeRange\":\"2026-08-01T06:00:00.000Z to 2026-08-01T18:00:00.000Z\",\"title\":\"Markets react to Fed's July decision and geopolitical tensions easing\",\"sources\":[{\"name\":\"headlinez.news\",\"url\":\"https://headlinez.news/topic/federal-reserve\"}],\"outcome\":\"No change\",\"priceBefore\":43,\"priceAfter\":64},{\"timestamp\":\"2026-08-02 12:00:00+00\",\"unixTime\":1785672000,\"priceChange\":20,\"summary\":\"The Federal Reserve paused after three consecutive rate cuts, maintaining the benchmark interest rate at 3.75%. Chair Jerome Powell faced a Department of Justice criminal investigation over alleged false statements to Congress, adding political complexity but not altering the Fed's cautious monetary policy stance.\",\"timeRange\":\"2026-08-02T06:00:00.000Z to 2026-08-02T18:00:00.000Z\",\"title\":\"Federal Reserve holds interest rate at 3.75% amid DOJ criminal investigation into Chair Powell\",\"sources\":[{\"name\":\"Arab Press\",\"url\":\"https://arabpress.com/federal-reserve-holds-interest-rate-at-3-75-as-powell-faces-doj-criminal-investigation-during-2026-decision\"}],\"outcome\":\"No change\",\"priceBefore\":43,\"priceAfter\":63},{\"timestamp\":\"2026-08-02 12:00:00+00\",\"unixTime\":1785672000,\"priceChange\":3,\"summary\":\"As of early August, market data indicated increasing probability of a 25 bps rate hike at the September FOMC meeting, driven by persistent inflation pressures and geopolitical tensions, particularly the Middle East conflict. This shift reflects the Fed's hawkish stance and the market's adjustment to a 'higher for longer' interest rate environment.\",\"timeRange\":\"2026-08-02T06:00:00.000Z to 2026-08-02T18:00:00.000Z\",\"title\":\"Rising Market Odds for September Rate Hike Amid Inflation and Geopolitical Concerns\",\"sources\":[{\"name\":\"Intellectia\",\"url\":\"https://intellectia.ai/blog/fed-interest-rate-decision-july-2026-analysis\"}],\"outcome\":\"25 bps increase\",\"priceBefore\":53,\"priceAfter\":56},{\"timestamp\":\"2026-08-03 12:00:00+00\",\"unixTime\":1785758400,\"priceChange\":11,\"summary\":\"The ISM Manufacturing PMI unexpectedly increased to 55.6 in July, indicating sustained growth in the manufacturing sector. This strong data prompted markets to reassess the Fed's policy path, reducing expectations for an immediate September hike but supporting a higher rate outlook later in 2026.\",\"timeRange\":\"2026-08-03T06:00:00.000Z to 2026-08-03T18:00:00.000Z\",\"title\":\"July ISM Manufacturing Index rises to 55.6, signaling economic expansion\",\"sources\":[{\"name\":\"Interactive Crypto\",\"url\":\"https://www.interactivecrypto.com/fed-funds-rate-outlook-shifts-as-july-ism-data-spurs-market-repricing-aug-2026\"}],\"outcome\":\"No change\",\"priceBefore\":52,\"priceAfter\":63},{\"timestamp\":\"2026-08-03 12:00:00+00\",\"unixTime\":1785758400,\"priceChange\":20,\"summary\":\"Following the July meeting, Chair Warsh's press conference was perceived as contradictory and overly confident, causing bond yields to rise sharply as investors priced in higher inflation risks and a hawkish Fed stance, boosting expectations for a September rate hike.\",\"timeRange\":\"2026-08-03T06:00:00.000Z to 2026-08-03T18:00:00.000Z\",\"title\":\"Fed Chair Warsh's guarded communication shakes market confidence\",\"sources\":[{\"name\":\"Morgan Kenwood Advisors\",\"url\":\"https://www.morgankenwood.com/commentary/weekly-market-commentary-august-3-2026\"}],\"outcome\":\"25 bps increase\",\"priceBefore\":25,\"priceAfter\":45},{\"timestamp\":\"2026-08-03 12:00:00+00\",\"unixTime\":1785758400,\"priceChange\":10,\"summary\":\"Following the July meeting, Chair Warsh's guarded and somewhat contradictory remarks during the press conference led to a sell-off in bonds and a rise in Treasury yields, reflecting market skepticism about the Fed's future rate path and reinforcing expectations of a September hike.\",\"timeRange\":\"2026-08-03T06:00:00.000Z to 2026-08-03T18:00:00.000Z\",\"title\":\"Fed Chair Warsh's cautious comments shake market confidence, bond yields rise\",\"sources\":[{\"name\":\"Morgan Kenwood Advisors\",\"url\":\"https://www.morgankenwood.com/commentary/weekly-market-commentary-august-3-2026\"}],\"outcome\":\"No change\",\"priceBefore\":39,\"priceAfter\":49},{\"timestamp\":\"2026-08-03 12:00:00+00\",\"unixTime\":1785758400,\"priceChange\":20,\"summary\":\"The FOMC's decision to hold rates steady with some dissenters voting for an increase reflected ongoing inflation worries, initially boosting confidence in no change but also increasing uncertainty about future hikes.\",\"timeRange\":\"2026-08-03T06:00:00.000Z to 2026-08-03T18:00:00.000Z\",\"title\":\"FOMC votes 9-3 to hold rates steady amid inflation concerns\",\"sources\":[{\"name\":\"King Capital Advisors\",\"url\":\"https://kingcapitaladvisors.com/market-insights/august-3rd-2026/\"}],\"outcome\":\"No change\",\"priceBefore\":43,\"priceAfter\":63},{\"timestamp\":\"2026-08-03 12:00:00+00\",\"unixTime\":1785758400,\"priceChange\":6,\"summary\":\"After the July 29 FOMC meeting, Chair Warsh’s contradictory and confident remarks during the press conference unsettled markets, causing Treasury yields to jump to multi-year highs and increasing expectations for a September rate hike.\",\"timeRange\":\"2026-08-03T06:00:00.000Z to 2026-08-03T18:00:00.000Z\",\"title\":\"Fed Chair Warsh’s press conference shakes market confidence, Treasury yields rise\",\"sources\":[{\"name\":\"Morgan Kenwood Advisors\",\"url\":\"https://www.morgankenwood.com/commentary/weekly-market-commentary-august-3-2026/\"}],\"outcome\":\"25 bps increase\",\"priceBefore\":31,\"priceAfter\":37},{\"timestamp\":\"2026-08-03 12:00:00+00\",\"unixTime\":1785758400,\"priceChange\":0,\"summary\":\"Market data showed a strong expectation for the Fed to hold rates steady in September, reflecting uncertainty amid elevated inflation and geopolitical risks. The low probability of cuts indicated persistent inflation concerns.\",\"timeRange\":\"2026-08-03T06:00:00.000Z to 2026-08-03T18:00:00.000Z\",\"title\":\"Markets price in 72% probability of no rate change in September 2026\",\"sources\":[{\"name\":\"SimpleFunctions\",\"url\":\"https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/fed-rate/fed-hold-expected-in-september-2026-zero-cuts-for-year-priced-at-85-75d00d\"}],\"outcome\":\"No change\",\"priceBefore\":null,\"priceAfter\":50},{\"timestamp\":\"2026-08-03 12:00:00+00\",\"unixTime\":1785758400,\"priceChange\":14,\"summary\":\"Following the July FOMC meeting, interest rate futures indicated a 67.2% probability of a 25 basis points hike in September, reflecting investor expectations of tightening due to persistent inflation. This market sentiment contributed to the price increase for the '25 bps increase' outcome and decline in the 'No change' option.\",\"timeRange\":\"2026-08-03T06:00:00.000Z to 2026-08-03T18:00:00.000Z\",\"title\":\"Market Data Shows Increased Probability of September Rate Hike\",\"sources\":[{\"name\":\"Quorum Private Wealth\",\"url\":\"https://quorumpw.com/insights/august-2026-market-update/\"}],\"outcome\":\"25 bps increase\",\"priceBefore\":42,\"priceAfter\":56},{\"timestamp\":\"2026-08-04 12:00:00+00\",\"unixTime\":1785844800,\"priceChange\":11,\"summary\":\"The Treasury Borrowing Advisory Committee reported a more hawkish Fed outlook with increased inflation projections and potential rate hikes, influenced by geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and elevated energy prices, contributing to market uncertainty ahead of September.\",\"timeRange\":\"2026-08-04T06:00:00.000Z to 2026-08-04T18:00:00.000Z\",\"title\":\"Treasury report highlights hawkish Fed outlook amid inflation and geopolitical tensions\",\"sources\":[{\"name\":\"home.treasury.gov\",\"url\":\"https://home.treasury.gov/news/press-releases/sb0591\"}],\"outcome\":\"25 bps increase\",\"priceBefore\":26,\"priceAfter\":37},{\"timestamp\":\"2026-08-05 12:00:00+00\",\"unixTime\":1785931200,\"priceChange\":0,\"summary\":\"Governor Lisa Cook's speech on August 5 provided insights into the economic outlook, reinforcing the Fed's cautious approach amid inflation and geopolitical risks. Such communications contributed to market reassessment of the Fed's policy path, supporting expectations of a possible September rate increase.\",\"timeRange\":\"2026-08-05T06:00:00.000Z to 2026-08-05T18:00:00.000Z\",\"title\":\"Fed Governor Lisa Cook delivers speech on economic outlook\",\"sources\":[{\"name\":\"Federal Reserve Board\",\"url\":\"https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/cook20260805a.htm\"}],\"outcome\":\"25 bps increase\",\"priceBefore\":28,\"priceAfter\":28},{\"timestamp\":\"2026-08-05 12:00:00+00\",\"unixTime\":1785931200,\"priceChange\":18,\"summary\":\"On August 5, the Federal Reserve maintained its benchmark interest rate unchanged at 3.5–3.75%, emphasizing the economy's solid growth despite inflation remaining above target and geopolitical tensions, including the Middle East conflict. The decision was supported by a 9-3 vote, with dissenters advocating for a rate hike due to inflation concerns.\",\"timeRange\":\"2026-08-05T06:00:00.000Z to 2026-08-05T18:00:00.000Z\",\"title\":\"US Federal Reserve holds interest rates steady at 3.5–3.75% amid inflation and global uncertainty\",\"sources\":[{\"name\":\"Ahmedabad Mirror\",\"url\":\"https://www.ahmedabadmirror.com/us-federal-reserve-holds-int-rates-steady/81918754.html\"}],\"outcome\":\"No change\",\"priceBefore\":45,\"priceAfter\":63},{\"timestamp\":\"2026-08-05 12:00:00+00\",\"unixTime\":1785931200,\"priceChange\":4,\"summary\":\"Following the July FOMC meeting, the Fed maintained the federal funds rate at 3.5%-3.75%, assessing inflation trends and economic outlook. The decision reflected a cautious approach with inflation still above the 2% goal and a stable labor market.\",\"timeRange\":\"2026-08-05T06:00:00.000Z to 2026-08-05T18:00:00.000Z\",\"title\":\"Federal Reserve holds rates steady in July amid inflation concerns\",\"sources\":[{\"name\":\"Invested MD\",\"url\":\"https://invested.mdm.ca/divided-fed-stays-the-course-as-inflation-remains-above-target/\"}],\"outcome\":\"No change\",\"priceBefore\":48,\"priceAfter\":52},{\"timestamp\":\"2026-08-05 12:00:00+00\",\"unixTime\":1785931200,\"priceChange\":18,\"summary\":\"Governor Cook's speech highlighted ongoing inflation pressures and economic uncertainties, reinforcing market views that the Fed may need to raise rates to achieve price stability, contributing to increased expectations of a 25 bps hike in September.\",\"timeRange\":\"2026-08-05T06:00:00.000Z to 2026-08-05T18:00:00.000Z\",\"title\":\"Fed Governor Lisa Cook discusses economic outlook amid inflation concerns\",\"sources\":[{\"name\":\"Federal Reserve Board\",\"url\":\"https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/cook20260805a.htm\"}],\"outcome\":\"25 bps increase\",\"priceBefore\":33,\"priceAfter\":51},{\"timestamp\":\"2026-08-06 12:00:00+00\",\"unixTime\":1786017600,\"priceChange\":-20,\"summary\":\"In early August, reports indicated 23,000 jobs lost in July and rising mortgage rates near 6.69%, highlighting economic strain. These developments increased market anticipation of a Fed rate hike in September to combat inflation and stabilize the economy.\",\"timeRange\":\"2026-08-06T06:00:00.000Z to 2026-08-06T18:00:00.000Z\",\"title\":\"US Economy Shows Signs of Strain Amid Rising Borrowing Costs and Job Losses\",\"sources\":[{\"name\":\"The Techedvocate\",\"url\":\"https://www.thetechedvocate.org/unveiling-the-dire-reality-why-your-wallet-faces-a-double-whammy-in-august-2026/\"}],\"outcome\":\"25 bps increase\",\"priceBefore\":45,\"priceAfter\":25},{\"timestamp\":\"2026-08-06 12:00:00+00\",\"unixTime\":1786017600,\"priceChange\":8,\"summary\":\"On August 6, the Fed reaffirmed its stance to maintain rates steady at 3.50%-3.75% citing solid economic growth despite inflationary pressures from energy prices and geopolitical risks, supporting market expectations of no immediate change but potential hikes later in the year.\",\"timeRange\":\"2026-08-06T06:00:00.000Z to 2026-08-06T18:00:00.000Z\",\"title\":\"Federal Reserve reiterates commitment to price stability amid elevated inflation and global uncertainty\",\"sources\":[{\"name\":\"Ahmedabad Mirror\",\"url\":\"https://www.ahmedabadmirror.com/us-federal-reserve-holds-int-rates-steady/81918754.html\"}],\"outcome\":\"No change\",\"priceBefore\":63,\"priceAfter\":71},{\"timestamp\":\"2026-08-06 12:00:00+00\",\"unixTime\":1786017600,\"priceChange\":1,\"summary\":\"Mortgage rates climbed to 6.69% as of early August 2026, reflecting ongoing inflationary pressures and economic strain including job losses. This environment contributed to market expectations of a Fed rate hike in September to combat inflation.\",\"timeRange\":\"2026-08-06T06:00:00.000Z to 2026-08-06T18:00:00.000Z\",\"title\":\"US mortgage rates rise to 6.69% amid economic strain and inflation concerns\",\"sources\":[{\"name\":\"The Techedvocate\",\"url\":\"https://www.thetechedvocate.org/unveiling-the-dire-reality-why-your-wallet-faces-a-double-whammy-in-august-2026/\"}],\"outcome\":\"25 bps increase\",\"priceBefore\":30,\"priceAfter\":31},{\"timestamp\":\"2026-08-06 12:00:00+00\",\"unixTime\":1786017600,\"priceChange\":17,\"summary\":\"The Fed kept the benchmark interest rate unchanged at 3.50%-3.75% in early August, citing solid economic growth despite global uncertainty and persistent inflationary pressures, partly due to the Middle East conflict. The decision was supported by a 9-3 vote, with dissenters favoring a rate hike due to inflation concerns.\",\"timeRange\":\"2026-08-06T06:00:00.000Z to 2026-08-06T18:00:00.000Z\",\"title\":\"Federal Reserve Maintains Interest Rates Amid Elevated Inflation and Economic Growth\",\"sources\":[{\"name\":\"Ahmedabad Mirror\",\"url\":\"https://www.ahmedabadmirror.com/us-federal-reserve-holds-int-rates-steady/81918754.html\"}],\"outcome\":\"No change\",\"priceBefore\":39,\"priceAfter\":56},{\"timestamp\":\"2026-08-06 12:00:00+00\",\"unixTime\":1786017600,\"priceChange\":25,\"summary\":\"In August 2026, despite no FOMC meeting, ongoing inflation concerns driven by elevated energy prices and geopolitical tensions, particularly the Middle East conflict, maintained market anticipation of a rate hike at the September meeting. Economic data releases and Fed communications during this period reinforced expectations for tightening monetary policy.\",\"timeRange\":\"2026-08-06T06:00:00.000Z to 2026-08-06T18:00:00.000Z\",\"title\":\"Rising Inflation and Geopolitical Risks Keep Fed Rate Hike Expectations High Ahead of September\",\"sources\":[{\"name\":\"Reuters\",\"url\":\"https://www.reuters.com/business/fed-officials-mull-raising-rates-curb-growing-inflation-risk-2026-05-29/\"},{\"name\":\"Emergency Fund Calculator\",\"url\":\"https://emergencyfundcalculator.com/fed-interest-rate-decision-august-2026/\"}],\"outcome\":\"25 bps increase\",\"priceBefore\":28,\"priceAfter\":53},{\"timestamp\":\"2026-08-06 12:00:00+00\",\"unixTime\":1786017600,\"priceChange\":0,\"summary\":\"On August 6, 2026, reports indicated solid job gains and stable unemployment despite inflation remaining above target, supporting the Fed's cautious approach to monetary policy. This economic backdrop maintained market expectations for a possible rate hike in September rather than cuts or no change.\",\"timeRange\":\"2026-08-06T06:00:00.000Z to 2026-08-06T18:00:00.000Z\",\"title\":\"US economy shows resilience with steady job gains amid inflation concerns\",\"sources\":[{\"name\":\"Welch \u0026 Forbes\",\"url\":\"https://www.welchforbes.com/insights/economic-outlook-july-2026/\"}],\"outcome\":\"No change\",\"priceBefore\":49,\"priceAfter\":null},{\"timestamp\":\"2026-08-06 12:00:00+00\",\"unixTime\":1786017600,\"priceChange\":18,\"summary\":\"The Federal Reserve maintained the federal funds rate at 3.50%-3.75% in early August, citing solid economic growth despite elevated inflation and uncertainty from the Middle East conflict. The decision supported the view that rates would remain higher for longer, sustaining market expectations for a possible September hike.\",\"timeRange\":\"2026-08-06T06:00:00.000Z to 2026-08-06T18:00:00.000Z\",\"title\":\"US Federal Reserve holds interest rates steady amid persistent inflation and geopolitical tensions\",\"sources\":[{\"name\":\"Ahmedabad Mirror\",\"url\":\"https://www.ahmedabadmirror.com/us-federal-reserve-holds-int-rates-steady/81918754.html\"},{\"name\":\"Live Feeds\",\"url\":\"https://www.live-feeds.com/feed/the-federal-reserve-faces-a-critical-decision-on-interest-rates\"}],\"outcome\":\"No change\",\"priceBefore\":56,\"priceAfter\":74},{\"timestamp\":\"2026-08-06 12:00:00+00\",\"unixTime\":1786017600,\"priceChange\":4,\"summary\":\"In early August, reports indicated 23,000 jobs lost in July and rising mortgage rates near 6.69%, signaling economic strain. These developments heightened market anticipation of a September rate hike by the Federal Reserve, as inflation remained elevated and geopolitical tensions persisted, influencing market expectations for tightening monetary policy.\",\"timeRange\":\"2026-08-06T06:00:00.000Z to 2026-08-06T18:00:00.000Z\",\"title\":\"US economy shows strain with job losses and rising borrowing costs ahead of September Fed meeting\",\"sources\":[{\"name\":\"The Techedvocate\",\"url\":\"https://www.thetechedvocate.org/unveiling-the-dire-reality-why-your-wallet-faces-a-double-whammy-in-august-2026/\"}],\"outcome\":\"25 bps increase\",\"priceBefore\":28,\"priceAfter\":32},{\"timestamp\":\"2026-08-06 12:00:00+00\",\"unixTime\":1786017600,\"priceChange\":16,\"summary\":\"Reports of 23,000 jobs lost in July and higher mortgage rates raised concerns about economic growth, influencing market sentiment ahead of the September Fed meeting. These factors supported expectations that the Fed would likely keep rates steady to monitor economic conditions.\",\"timeRange\":\"2026-08-06T06:00:00.000Z to 2026-08-06T18:00:00.000Z\",\"title\":\"US economy shows signs of strain with job losses and rising borrowing costs\",\"sources\":[{\"name\":\"Live Feed\",\"url\":\"https://www.live-feeds.com/feed/the-federal-reserve-faces-a-critical-decision-on-interest-rates\"}],\"outcome\":\"No change\",\"priceBefore\":39,\"priceAfter\":55},{\"timestamp\":\"2026-08-06 12:00:00+00\",\"unixTime\":1786017600,\"priceChange\":12,\"summary\":\"On August 5, the Federal Reserve maintained its benchmark interest rate unchanged, citing solid economic growth despite inflation remaining above target and geopolitical uncertainty from the Middle East conflict. This reinforced market expectations for a potential September rate hike.\",\"timeRange\":\"2026-08-06T06:00:00.000Z to 2026-08-06T18:00:00.000Z\",\"title\":\"Federal Reserve holds interest rates steady at 3.5%-3.75%\",\"sources\":[{\"name\":\"Ahmedabad Mirror\",\"url\":\"https://www.ahmedabadmirror.com/us-federal-reserve-holds-int-rates-steady/81918754.html\"}],\"outcome\":\"No change\",\"priceBefore\":49,\"priceAfter\":61},{\"timestamp\":\"2026-08-06 12:00:00+00\",\"unixTime\":1786017600,\"priceChange\":4,\"summary\":\"July jobs data showed 23,000 jobs lost and mortgage rates remained high at 6.69%, raising concerns about economic strain. These developments influenced market expectations for the Fed's September decision, with inflation and geopolitical risks still in focus.\",\"timeRange\":\"2026-08-06T06:00:00.000Z to 2026-08-06T18:00:00.000Z\",\"title\":\"Softening labor market and high mortgage rates weigh on economy ahead of September Fed meeting\",\"sources\":[{\"name\":\"Live Feeds\",\"url\":\"https://www.live-feeds.com/feed/the-federal-reserve-faces-a-critical-decision-on-interest-rates\"}],\"outcome\":\"No change\",\"priceBefore\":50,\"priceAfter\":54},{\"timestamp\":\"2026-08-07 12:00:00+00\",\"unixTime\":1786104000,\"priceChange\":-11,\"summary\":\"The July jobs report revealed a decline in nonfarm payrolls and a slight drop in unemployment, reinforcing a cooling labor market. This mixed signal contributed to market volatility and tempered expectations for aggressive Fed hikes, though a 25 bps increase remained favored.\",\"timeRange\":\"2026-08-07T06:00:00.000Z to 2026-08-07T18:00:00.000Z\",\"title\":\"July employment report shows labor market weakening, adding uncertainty to Fed rate path\",\"sources\":[{\"name\":\"GO Markets\",\"url\":\"https://gomarkets.com/en-au/articles/us-market-drivers-august-2026\"}],\"outcome\":\"25 bps increase\",\"priceBefore\":60,\"priceAfter\":49},{\"timestamp\":\"2026-08-07 12:00:00+00\",\"unixTime\":1786104000,\"priceChange\":15,\"summary\":\"The July employment report revealed a loss of 23,000 jobs and downward revisions to prior months, signaling labor market weakening. This mixed signal complicated the Fed's outlook, tempering expectations for aggressive rate hikes and supporting some market optimism for no change.\",\"timeRange\":\"2026-08-07T06:00:00.000Z to 2026-08-07T18:00:00.000Z\",\"title\":\"July jobs report shows 23,000 job losses, raising recession concerns\",\"sources\":[{\"name\":\"trerc.tamu.edu\",\"url\":\"https://trerc.tamu.edu/reports/texas-economic-outlook-august-2026/\"}],\"outcome\":\"No change\",\"priceBefore\":39,\"priceAfter\":54},{\"timestamp\":\"2026-08-07 12:00:00+00\",\"unixTime\":1786104000,\"priceChange\":9,\"summary\":\"The July jobs report released on August 7 showed a decline of 23,000 nonfarm payrolls and a slight drop in the unemployment rate to 4.1%, reinforcing signs of a cooling labor market. This data contributed to market reassessment of the Fed's likely September decision, increasing expectations for a possible rate hold or modest hike.\",\"timeRange\":\"2026-08-07T06:00:00.000Z to 2026-08-07T18:00:00.000Z\",\"title\":\"July jobs report shows labor market weakening, shifting Fed expectations\",\"sources\":[{\"name\":\"PrimeRates\",\"url\":\"https://primerates.com/primerate/fed-meeting-schedule/\"}],\"outcome\":\"25 bps increase\",\"priceBefore\":31,\"priceAfter\":40},{\"timestamp\":\"2026-08-07 12:00:00+00\",\"unixTime\":1786104000,\"priceChange\":-9,\"summary\":\"In early August 2026, ongoing inflation pressures driven by elevated energy prices and geopolitical uncertainty, including the Middle East conflict, maintained market expectations for a potential 25 bps rate increase in September. This contributed to fluctuations in the probabilities for 'No change' and '25 bps increase' outcomes.\",\"timeRange\":\"2026-08-07T06:00:00.000Z to 2026-08-07T18:00:00.000Z\",\"title\":\"Rising inflation and geopolitical tensions sustain rate hike expectations\",\"sources\":[{\"name\":\"The Techedvocate\",\"url\":\"https://www.thetechedvocate.org/unveiling-the-dire-reality-why-your-wallet-faces-a-double-whammy-in-august-2026/\"}],\"outcome\":\"25 bps increase\",\"priceBefore\":37,\"priceAfter\":28},{\"timestamp\":\"2026-08-07 12:00:00+00\",\"unixTime\":1786104000,\"priceChange\":-16,\"summary\":\"In early August, reports indicated the US economy was facing challenges with 23,000 jobs lost in July and rising mortgage rates averaging 6.69%. These developments increased market speculation about a potential Federal Reserve rate hike in September, contributing to shifts in market expectations and currency valuations.\",\"timeRange\":\"2026-08-07T06:00:00.000Z to 2026-08-07T18:00:00.000Z\",\"title\":\"US economy shows signs of strain amid rising borrowing costs and job losses\",\"sources\":[{\"name\":\"Live Feeds\",\"url\":\"https://www.live-feeds.com/feed/the-federal-reserve-faces-a-critical-decision-on-interest-rates\"}],\"outcome\":\"25 bps increase\",\"priceBefore\":44,\"priceAfter\":28},{\"timestamp\":\"2026-08-07 12:00:00+00\",\"unixTime\":1786104000,\"priceChange\":9,\"summary\":\"The July 2026 Nonfarm Payrolls report revealed weaker-than-expected job growth, with new jobs below consensus forecasts. The Federal Reserve's August inflation forecast projected persistent PCE inflation at 3.6%, signaling ongoing inflation risks. These data points contributed to market caution and supported expectations of a Fed pause in September.\",\"timeRange\":\"2026-08-07T06:00:00.000Z to 2026-08-07T18:00:00.000Z\",\"title\":\"July jobs data shows softer hiring, inflation forecast remains elevated\",\"sources\":[{\"name\":\"Interactive Crypto\",\"url\":\"https://www.interactivecrypto.com/july-jobs-data-and-fed-inflation-forecast-push-markets-toward-higher-rates-aug-2026\"}],\"outcome\":\"No change\",\"priceBefore\":40,\"priceAfter\":49},{\"timestamp\":\"2026-08-07 12:00:00+00\",\"unixTime\":1786104000,\"priceChange\":4,\"summary\":\"The July employment data revealed a loss of 23,000 jobs, signaling economic strain and influencing market expectations toward a more cautious Fed stance. This data supported the 'No change' outcome as the Fed weighed inflation risks against labor market weakness.\",\"timeRange\":\"2026-08-07T06:00:00.000Z to 2026-08-07T18:00:00.000Z\",\"title\":\"July jobs report shows labor market weakening with 23,000 jobs lost\",\"sources\":[{\"name\":\"live-feeds.com\",\"url\":\"https://www.live-feeds.com/feed/the-federal-reserve-faces-a-critical-decision-on-interest-rates\"}],\"outcome\":\"No change\",\"priceBefore\":52,\"priceAfter\":56},{\"timestamp\":\"2026-08-07 12:00:00+00\",\"unixTime\":1786104000,\"priceChange\":0,\"summary\":\"The July jobs report revealed a decline in nonfarm payrolls and a slight drop in unemployment, reinforcing signs of a cooling labor market and affecting market views on the Fed's potential September decision.\",\"timeRange\":\"2026-08-07T06:00:00.000Z to 2026-08-07T18:00:00.000Z\",\"title\":\"July jobs report shows weakening labor market, influencing Fed expectations\",\"sources\":[{\"name\":\"PrimeRates\",\"url\":\"https://primerates.com/primerate/fed-meeting-schedule/\"}],\"outcome\":\"No change\",\"priceBefore\":50,\"priceAfter\":50},{\"timestamp\":\"2026-08-07 12:00:00+00\",\"unixTime\":1786104000,\"priceChange\":7,\"summary\":\"Reports of 23,000 jobs lost in July and rising mortgage rates heightened market uncertainty ahead of the September FOMC meeting, briefly increasing expectations for a 25 bps rate hike, reflected in a temporary price rise for that outcome.\",\"timeRange\":\"2026-08-07T06:00:00.000Z to 2026-08-07T18:00:00.000Z\",\"title\":\"US Economy Shows Strain with Job Losses and Rising Borrowing Costs Ahead of September Fed Vote\",\"sources\":[{\"name\":\"Live Feeds\",\"url\":\"https://www.live-feeds.com/feed/the-federal-reserve-faces-a-critical-decision-on-interest-rates\"}],\"outcome\":\"25 bps increase\",\"priceBefore\":28,\"priceAfter\":35},{\"timestamp\":\"2026-08-07 12:00:00+00\",\"unixTime\":1786104000,\"priceChange\":8,\"summary\":\"In early August, the Federal Reserve reiterated its stance to keep rates steady due to ongoing elevated inflation driven by supply shocks, including energy prices linked to the Middle East conflict. The Fed emphasized its commitment to price stability while acknowledging solid economic growth and labor market conditions.\",\"timeRange\":\"2026-08-07T06:00:00.000Z to 2026-08-07T18:00:00.000Z\",\"title\":\"US Federal Reserve reaffirms hold on rates amid Middle East conflict and inflation concerns\",\"sources\":[{\"name\":\"Fox Business\",\"url\":\"https://www.foxbusiness.com/economy/federal-reserve-interest-rate-decision-july-29-2026\"},{\"name\":\"Ahmedabad Mirror\",\"url\":\"https://www.ahmedabadmirror.com/us-federal-reserve-holds-int-rates-steady/81918754.html\"}],\"outcome\":\"No change\",\"priceBefore\":63,\"priceAfter\":71},{\"timestamp\":\"2026-08-10 12:00:00+00\",\"unixTime\":1786363200,\"priceChange\":18,\"summary\":\"In early August, market sentiment shifted with increasing expectations for a 25 basis point rate hike at the upcoming September FOMC meeting, driven by persistent inflation and hawkish Fed communications. This was reflected in rising market prices for the 25 bps increase outcome and declining probabilities for no change.\",\"timeRange\":\"2026-08-10T06:00:00.000Z to 2026-08-10T18:00:00.000Z\",\"title\":\"Market Expectations Shift Toward 25 Basis Point Rate Increase Ahead of September Meeting\",\"sources\":[{\"name\":\"iShares\",\"url\":\"https://www.ishares.com/us/insights/portfolio-insights/fed-outlook-rates-kevin-warsh-fixed-income-2026\"}],\"outcome\":\"25 bps increase\",\"priceBefore\":24,\"priceAfter\":42},{\"timestamp\":\"2026-08-10 12:00:00+00\",\"unixTime\":1786363200,\"priceChange\":11,\"summary\":\"President Trump publicly pressured the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates further, but Fed Chair Jerome Powell emphasized the Fed's independence and commitment to data-driven policy, which supported market confidence in no change for the September meeting.\",\"timeRange\":\"2026-08-10T06:00:00.000Z to 2026-08-10T18:00:00.000Z\",\"title\":\"Political pressure mounts as President Trump calls for aggressive Fed rate cuts\",\"sources\":[{\"name\":\"Al Jazeera\",\"url\":\"https://www.aljazeera.com/economy/2026/1/28/us-federal-reserve-holds-interest-rates-steady-despite-political-pressure\"}],\"outcome\":\"No change\",\"priceBefore\":56,\"priceAfter\":67},{\"timestamp\":\"2026-08-10 12:00:00+00\",\"unixTime\":1786363200,\"priceChange\":5,\"summary\":\"As of early August, the Federal Reserve maintained the federal funds rate at 3.50%-3.75%, with markets pricing in a significant probability of a 25 basis point hike at the upcoming September meeting. Inflation concerns and geopolitical risks continued to influence expectations for monetary policy tightening.\",\"timeRange\":\"2026-08-10T06:00:00.000Z to 2026-08-10T18:00:00.000Z\",\"title\":\"Federal Reserve interest rate remains at 3.50%-3.75% as markets await September decision\",\"sources\":[{\"name\":\"federalreserve.gov\",\"url\":\"https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h15/\"}],\"outcome\":\"25 bps increase\",\"priceBefore\":39,\"priceAfter\":44},{\"timestamp\":\"2026-08-10 12:00:00+00\",\"unixTime\":1786363200,\"priceChange\":-8,\"summary\":\"In early August, persistent inflation above the Fed's 2% target and renewed geopolitical tensions, especially the U.S.-Iran conflict affecting energy prices, led investors to price in a 67% probability of a 25 basis points rate increase at the September FOMC meeting. The Fed's hawkish signals and economic data supported this shift in market sentiment.\",\"timeRange\":\"2026-08-10T06:00:00.000Z to 2026-08-10T18:00:00.000Z\",\"title\":\"Rising Inflation and Geopolitical Tensions Fuel Expectations of September Rate Hike\",\"sources\":[{\"name\":\"Quorum Private Wealth\",\"url\":\"https://quorumpw.com/insights/august-2026-market-update/\"}],\"outcome\":\"25 bps increase\",\"priceBefore\":39,\"priceAfter\":31},{\"timestamp\":\"2026-08-11 12:00:00+00\",\"unixTime\":1786449600,\"priceChange\":0,\"summary\":\"The RBA's decision to maintain its cash rate at 4.35% on August 11 reflected a global environment of cautious monetary policy, which influenced market sentiment and reduced expectations for aggressive Fed rate hikes in September. This contributed to the stabilization of the 'No change' outcome in the Fed market.\",\"timeRange\":\"2026-08-11T06:00:00.000Z to 2026-08-11T18:00:00.000Z\",\"title\":\"Reserve Bank of Australia holds rates steady at 4.35% amid global uncertainty\",\"sources\":[{\"name\":\"Finance Calendar\",\"url\":\"https://www.financecalendar.com/event/rba-rate-decision-august-2026/\"}],\"outcome\":\"No change\",\"priceBefore\":56,\"priceAfter\":56},{\"timestamp\":\"2026-08-11 12:00:00+00\",\"unixTime\":1786449600,\"priceChange\":0,\"summary\":\"Reports in August highlighted 23,000 jobs lost in July and a 30-year fixed mortgage rate averaging 6.69%, indicating economic strain. These developments increased market speculation about a potential Fed rate hike in September to address inflation and economic risks.\",\"timeRange\":\"2026-08-11T06:00:00.000Z to 2026-08-11T18:00:00.000Z\",\"title\":\"Rising US mortgage rates and job losses signal economic strain ahead of September Fed meeting\",\"sources\":[{\"name\":\"Live Feeds\",\"url\":\"https://www.live-feeds.com/feed/the-federal-reserve-faces-a-critical-decision-on-interest-rates\"}],\"outcome\":\"25 bps increase\",\"priceBefore\":28,\"priceAfter\":28},{\"timestamp\":\"2026-08-12 12:00:00+00\",\"unixTime\":1786536000,\"priceChange\":13,\"summary\":\"The July Consumer Price Index release indicated a cooling in both headline and core inflation, reducing immediate pressure on the Federal Reserve to raise rates. This data reinforced market expectations for the Fed to maintain the current rate range in September, contributing to the rise in the 'No change' price and decline in rate cut probabilities.\",\"timeRange\":\"2026-08-12T06:00:00.000Z to 2026-08-12T18:00:00.000Z\",\"title\":\"July CPI data shows easing inflation, supporting Fed's hold on rates\",\"sources\":[{\"name\":\"Archynetys\",\"url\":\"https://www.archynetys.com/topic/monetary-policy\"}],\"outcome\":\"No change\",\"priceBefore\":41,\"priceAfter\":54},{\"timestamp\":\"2026-08-12 12:00:00+00\",\"unixTime\":1786536000,\"priceChange\":15,\"summary\":\"In mid-August 2026, Federal Reserve officials expressed concerns about inflation remaining above target and indicated that further rate increases could be necessary. This hawkish tone caused a reassessment in markets, boosting the probability of a 25 bps increase and reducing expectations for no change or rate cuts.\",\"timeRange\":\"2026-08-12T06:00:00.000Z to 2026-08-12T18:00:00.000Z\",\"title\":\"Federal Reserve Officials Signal Possible Further Rate Hikes Amid Persistent Inflation\",\"sources\":[{\"name\":\"ECMarkets\",\"url\":\"https://www.ecmarkets.com/insights/fed-holds-rates-hawkish-hike-expectations/\"}],\"outcome\":\"25 bps increase\",\"priceBefore\":37,\"priceAfter\":52},{\"timestamp\":\"2026-08-12 12:00:00+00\",\"unixTime\":1786536000,\"priceChange\":15,\"summary\":\"The August 12 release of the July CPI inflation report indicated some easing in consumer price inflation, but core inflation remained elevated. This mixed inflation data contributed to market expectations that the Fed would likely raise rates by 25 bps in September to continue combating inflationary pressures.\",\"timeRange\":\"2026-08-12T06:00:00.000Z to 2026-08-12T18:00:00.000Z\",\"title\":\"July CPI inflation report shows easing but inflation remains above target\",\"sources\":[{\"name\":\"GO Markets\",\"url\":\"https://www.gomarkets.com/en/articles/us-market-drivers-august-2026\"}],\"outcome\":\"25 bps increase\",\"priceBefore\":33,\"priceAfter\":48},{\"timestamp\":\"2026-08-12 12:00:00+00\",\"unixTime\":1786536000,\"priceChange\":4,\"summary\":\"The release of the US CPI data on August 12 showed inflation remaining elevated, reinforcing concerns about the Fed's inflation target and supporting expectations for a possible rate increase in September. This data likely influenced market pricing toward the 'No change' and '25 bps increase' outcomes.\",\"timeRange\":\"2026-08-12T06:00:00.000Z to 2026-08-12T18:00:00.000Z\",\"title\":\"US Consumer Price Index Shows Persistent Inflation Above Target\",\"sources\":[{\"name\":\"The Right Trader\",\"url\":\"https://therighttrader.com/dividend-stocks\"}],\"outcome\":null,\"priceBefore\":63,\"priceAfter\":67},{\"timestamp\":\"2026-08-12 12:00:00+00\",\"unixTime\":1786536000,\"priceChange\":6,\"summary\":\"The July CPI rose 0.1% monthly with an annual rate of 3.4%, slightly easing inflation pressures but still above the Fed's 2% target. This modest increase suggested the Fed might hold rates steady in September, reinforcing the market's 'No change' pricing.\",\"timeRange\":\"2026-08-12T06:00:00.000Z to 2026-08-12T18:00:00.000Z\",\"title\":\"July Consumer Price Index shows modest inflation rise, easing pressure on Fed\",\"sources\":[{\"name\":\"The Washington Times\",\"url\":\"https://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2026/aug/12/consumer-prices-rose-modestly-july-easing-pressure-federal-reserve/\"}],\"outcome\":\"No change\",\"priceBefore\":56,\"priceAfter\":62},{\"timestamp\":\"2026-08-12 12:00:00+00\",\"unixTime\":1786536000,\"priceChange\":16,\"summary\":\"The August 12 release of July CPI data showed headline inflation at 3.4% year-over-year, still above the Fed's 2% target but indicating a slight easing. This report added complexity to the Fed's decision-making, balancing persistent inflation against signs of moderation.\",\"timeRange\":\"2026-08-12T06:00:00.000Z to 2026-08-12T18:00:00.000Z\",\"title\":\"July CPI inflation report shows headline inflation at 3.4%, easing slightly\",\"sources\":[{\"name\":\"The New York Times\",\"url\":\"https://www.nytimes.com/live/2026/08/12/business/inflation-cpi-report\"}],\"outcome\":\"No change\",\"priceBefore\":59,\"priceAfter\":75},{\"timestamp\":\"2026-08-12 12:00:00+00\",\"unixTime\":1786536000,\"priceChange\":-1,\"summary\":\"The July CPI report showed a slight decline in inflation rates, suggesting some easing of price pressures. However, inflation remained above the Fed's 2% target, sustaining expectations for a rate hike at the September meeting to maintain price stability.\",\"timeRange\":\"2026-08-12T06:00:00.000Z to 2026-08-12T18:00:00.000Z\",\"title\":\"July CPI inflation report indicates easing price pressures but inflation remains above target\",\"sources\":[{\"name\":\"GO Markets\",\"url\":\"https://gomarkets.com/en-au/articles/us-market-drivers-august-2026\"}],\"outcome\":\"25 bps increase\",\"priceBefore\":33,\"priceAfter\":32},{\"timestamp\":\"2026-08-12 12:00:00+00\",\"unixTime\":1786536000,\"priceChange\":10,\"summary\":\"The July 2026 Consumer Price Index report indicated a slight easing of inflation to 3.4% year-over-year, down from 3.5% in June. This moderation, alongside a softening labor market, created a complex policy environment for the Fed ahead of the September meeting, supporting market expectations of no rate change.\",\"timeRange\":\"2026-08-12T06:00:00.000Z to 2026-08-12T18:00:00.000Z\",\"title\":\"July CPI report shows inflation easing to 3.4%\",\"sources\":[{\"name\":\"The New York Times\",\"url\":\"https://www.nytimes.com/live/2026/08/12/business/inflation-cpi-report\"}],\"outcome\":\"No change\",\"priceBefore\":59,\"priceAfter\":69},{\"timestamp\":\"2026-08-14 12:00:00+00\",\"unixTime\":1786708800,\"priceChange\":4,\"summary\":\"The July Consumer Price Index (CPI) data released in mid-August showed inflation steady at 3.4%, above the Fed's 2% target. This persistent inflation supported market expectations for a possible rate hike at the September meeting.\",\"timeRange\":\"2026-08-14T06:00:00.000Z to 2026-08-14T18:00:00.000Z\",\"title\":\"July CPI inflation data confirms persistent inflation at 3.4%, sustaining hike expectations\",\"sources\":[{\"name\":\"Regards of Wallstreet\",\"url\":\"https://www.regardsofwallstreet.com/news/july-cpi-3-4-percent-what-it-means-for-markets\"}],\"outcome\":\"25 bps increase\",\"priceBefore\":45,\"priceAfter\":49},{\"timestamp\":\"2026-08-15 12:00:00+00\",\"unixTime\":1786795200,\"priceChange\":-3,\"summary\":\"JPMorgan Chase released a report highlighting economic vulnerabilities and advocating for a 100 bps rate cut to support employment and stabilize markets. This influenced market sentiment towards potential rate decreases, though the Fed remained cautious.\",\"timeRange\":\"2026-08-15T06:00:00.000Z to 2026-08-15T18:00:00.000Z\",\"title\":\"JPMorgan Chase warns of economic risks amid calls for Fed rate cuts\",\"sources\":[{\"name\":\"LatLongInfo\",\"url\":\"https://latlonginfo.com/en-us/a/fe386cbbbb184569a30a29a5c741392a.html\"}],\"outcome\":\"25 bps decrease\",\"priceBefore\":4,\"priceAfter\":1},{\"timestamp\":\"2026-08-15 12:00:00+00\",\"unixTime\":1786795200,\"priceChange\":3,\"summary\":\"In mid-August, the Fed reiterated its commitment to maintaining the federal funds rate at 3.50%-3.75%, highlighting ongoing inflationary pressures partly due to supply shocks and geopolitical tensions. The decision supported the view that the Fed would likely raise rates in September if inflation remains elevated.\",\"timeRange\":\"2026-08-15T06:00:00.000Z to 2026-08-15T18:00:00.000Z\",\"title\":\"Federal Reserve Maintains Rates Amid Elevated Inflation and Economic Uncertainty\",\"sources\":[{\"name\":\"Ahmedabad Mirror\",\"url\":\"https://www.ahmedabadmirror.com/us-federal-reserve-holds-int-rates-steady/81918754.html\"}],\"outcome\":\"No change\",\"priceBefore\":63,\"priceAfter\":66},{\"timestamp\":\"2026-08-15 12:00:00+00\",\"unixTime\":1786795200,\"priceChange\":13,\"summary\":\"The Fed maintained the federal funds rate at 3.5%-3.75%, citing solid economic growth and persistent inflation above target. The decision was supported by a 9-3 vote, with dissenters favoring a hike. This reaffirmed market expectations for no change in September.\",\"timeRange\":\"2026-08-15T06:00:00.000Z to 2026-08-15T18:00:00.000Z\",\"title\":\"Federal Reserve reiterates commitment to price stability, holds rates steady\",\"sources\":[{\"name\":\"Ahmedabad Mirror\",\"url\":\"https://www.ahmedabadmirror.com/us-federal-reserve-holds-int-rates-steady/81918754.html\"}],\"outcome\":\"No change\",\"priceBefore\":62,\"priceAfter\":75},{\"timestamp\":\"2026-08-15 12:00:00+00\",\"unixTime\":1786795200,\"priceChange\":5,\"summary\":\"On August 15, 2026, the Federal Reserve maintained the federal funds rate at 3.50%–3.75%, citing solid economic growth despite elevated inflation and global uncertainties, including the Middle East conflict. The decision was supported by a 9-3 vote, with dissenters favoring a 25 bps hike, reflecting persistent inflation concerns and setting the stage for a possible September rate increase.\",\"timeRange\":\"2026-08-15T06:00:00.000Z to 2026-08-15T18:00:00.000Z\",\"title\":\"Federal Reserve holds rates steady amid ongoing inflation and geopolitical risks\",\"sources\":[{\"name\":\"Ahmedabad Mirror\",\"url\":\"https://www.ahmedabadmirror.com/us-federal-reserve-holds-int-rates-steady/81918754.html\"}],\"outcome\":\"No change\",\"priceBefore\":63,\"priceAfter\":68},{\"timestamp\":\"2026-08-15 12:00:00+00\",\"unixTime\":1786795200,\"priceChange\":13,\"summary\":\"On August 12, the Fed maintained the federal funds rate at 3.50%-3.75%, citing solid economic growth despite inflation above target and global uncertainties including the Middle East conflict. This reinforced the market's confidence in the no change outcome for September.\",\"timeRange\":\"2026-08-15T06:00:00.000Z to 2026-08-15T18:00:00.000Z\",\"title\":\"Federal Reserve Holds Interest Rates Steady Amid Inflation and Global Uncertainty\",\"sources\":[{\"name\":\"Ahmedabad Mirror\",\"url\":\"https://www.ahmedabadmirror.com/us-federal-reserve-holds-int-rates-steady/81918754.html\"}],\"outcome\":\"No change\",\"priceBefore\":63,\"priceAfter\":76},{\"timestamp\":\"2026-08-15 12:00:00+00\",\"unixTime\":1786795200,\"priceChange\":-3,\"summary\":\"On August 15, the Fed reiterated its commitment to price stability while maintaining the federal funds rate at 3.50%-3.75%. The economy was described as expanding at a solid pace despite elevated inflation driven by supply shocks, particularly energy prices. The Fed's stance supported market expectations of no change in the near term but left open the possibility of a September hike.\",\"timeRange\":\"2026-08-15T06:00:00.000Z to 2026-08-15T18:00:00.000Z\",\"title\":\"Federal Reserve maintains steady rates amid solid economic growth and inflation concerns\",\"sources\":[{\"name\":\"Ahmedabad Mirror\",\"url\":\"https://www.ahmedabadmirror.com/us-federal-reserve-holds-int-rates-steady/81918754.html\"}],\"outcome\":\"No change\",\"priceBefore\":75,\"priceAfter\":72},{\"timestamp\":\"2026-08-19 12:00:00+00\",\"unixTime\":1787140800,\"priceChange\":22,\"summary\":\"The minutes from the July 28-29 FOMC meeting showed a closer split than the statement suggested, with three members voting for an immediate hike and several others favoring a 25 basis points increase. This reinforced market pricing for a September hike.\",\"timeRange\":\"2026-08-19T06:00:00.000Z to 2026-08-19T18:00:00.000Z\",\"title\":\"Release of July FOMC meeting minutes reveals three dissenters favored rate hike\",\"sources\":[{\"name\":\"Securities.io\",\"url\":\"https://www.securities.io/fed-minutes-show-three-dissenters-favored-a-hike-as-markets-priced-september/\"}],\"outcome\":\"25 bps increase\",\"priceBefore\":16,\"priceAfter\":38},{\"timestamp\":\"2026-08-19 12:00:00+00\",\"unixTime\":1787140800,\"priceChange\":22,\"summary\":\"The publication of the July FOMC minutes on August 19 provided market participants with detailed insights into the committee's divided stance on interest rates, reinforcing expectations for a potential 25 bps hike in September and causing shifts in market pricing.\",\"timeRange\":\"2026-08-19T06:00:00.000Z to 2026-08-19T18:00:00.000Z\",\"title\":\"Release of July FOMC minutes reveals committee split and dissent details\",\"sources\":[{\"name\":\"Regards of Wallstreet\",\"url\":\"https://www.regardsofwallstreet.com/news/fomc-minutes-august-19-2026-what-time\"}],\"outcome\":\"25 bps increase\",\"priceBefore\":16,\"priceAfter\":38},{\"timestamp\":\"2026-08-19 12:00:00+00\",\"unixTime\":1787140800,\"priceChange\":25,\"summary\":\"The minutes from the July FOMC meeting showed that many Fed officials believed further policy tightening would be necessary if inflation did not decline. The committee noted that financial conditions might not be sufficiently restrictive to return inflation to the 2% target, reinforcing expectations for a possible rate hike in September.\",\"timeRange\":\"2026-08-19T06:00:00.000Z to 2026-08-19T18:00:00.000Z\",\"title\":\"Fed Minutes Reveal Officials' Concerns Over Inflation and Potential Rate Hike\",\"sources\":[{\"name\":\"CNBC\",\"url\":\"https://www.cnbc.com/2026/08/19/fed-minutes-july-2026-officials-saw-need-for-rate-hike-if-inflation-doesnt-cool.html\"}],\"outcome\":\"25 bps increase\",\"priceBefore\":28,\"priceAfter\":53},{\"timestamp\":\"2026-08-19 12:00:00+00\",\"unixTime\":1787140800,\"priceChange\":5,\"summary\":\"The minutes from the July FOMC meeting highlighted a split among policymakers, with three voting for a rate hike due to inflation risks. The Committee reaffirmed its commitment to price stability, signaling a likely 25 basis point increase in September.\",\"timeRange\":\"2026-08-19T06:00:00.000Z to 2026-08-19T18:00:00.000Z\",\"title\":\"FOMC minutes reveal split decision and inflation concerns ahead of September meeting\",\"sources\":[{\"name\":\"Federal Reserve Board\",\"url\":\"https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomcminutes20260617.htm\"}],\"outcome\":\"25 bps increase\",\"priceBefore\":60,\"priceAfter\":65},{\"timestamp\":\"2026-08-19 12:00:00+00\",\"unixTime\":1787140800,\"priceChange\":5,\"summary\":\"The release of the August 19 FOMC minutes showed that several participants favored raising rates if inflation did not decline, emphasizing upside risks from supply shocks and geopolitical tensions. This hawkish tone supported market pricing for no change or a 25 bps increase in September, while diminishing expectations for rate cuts.\",\"timeRange\":\"2026-08-19T06:00:00.000Z to 2026-08-19T18:00:00.000Z\",\"title\":\"FOMC minutes reveal hawkish tone, inflation risks remain elevated\",\"sources\":[{\"name\":\"PNC Economics Research\",\"url\":\"https://www.pnc.com/content/dam/pnc-com/pdf/aboutpnc/EconomicReports/EconomicUpdates/2026/PNC_Economics_Research_FOMC_Minutes_19_August_2026.pdf\"},{\"name\":\"Newsquawk\",\"url\":\"https://www.newsquawk.com/headlines/preview-fomc-minutes-due-wednesday-19th-august-2026-at-1900bst1400edt\"}],\"outcome\":\"No change\",\"priceBefore\":54,\"priceAfter\":59},{\"timestamp\":\"2026-08-19 12:00:00+00\",\"unixTime\":1787140800,\"priceChange\":0,\"summary\":\"The minutes from the July FOMC meeting detailed the divided views among policymakers, including the three dissenters favoring a rate hike. The minutes highlighted ongoing inflation concerns and the Fed's readiness to adjust policy, reinforcing market expectations for a September increase.\",\"timeRange\":\"2026-08-19T06:00:00.000Z to 2026-08-19T18:00:00.000Z\",\"title\":\"Federal Reserve releases minutes of July 28-29 FOMC meeting\",\"sources\":[{\"name\":\"Federal Reserve Board\",\"url\":\"https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20260819a.htm\"}],\"outcome\":\"25 bps increase\",\"priceBefore\":28,\"priceAfter\":28},{\"timestamp\":\"2026-08-20 12:00:00+00\",\"unixTime\":1787227200,\"priceChange\":20,\"summary\":\"In August 2026, ongoing inflation pressures driven by Middle East conflict and elevated energy prices, combined with hawkish Fed signals, led markets to reduce expectations for rate cuts and price in a higher probability of a 25 basis points increase at the September meeting.\",\"timeRange\":\"2026-08-20T06:00:00.000Z to 2026-08-20T18:00:00.000Z\",\"title\":\"Rising inflation and geopolitical risks keep markets wary of Fed rate cuts\",\"sources\":[{\"name\":\"IDNFinancials\",\"url\":\"https://www.idnfinancials.com/news/62523/economists-see-the-fed-holding-rates-until-september-2026\"}],\"outcome\":\"25 bps increase\",\"priceBefore\":36,\"priceAfter\":56},{\"timestamp\":\"2026-08-20 12:00:00+00\",\"unixTime\":1787227200,\"priceChange\":16,\"summary\":\"Minutes from a recent Fed meeting indicated that many officials thought the central bank might need to raise short-term interest rates if inflation did not subside, reviving expectations of a potential 25 basis points increase. This hawkish tone caused markets to reassess the likelihood of rate hikes in September.\",\"timeRange\":\"2026-08-20T06:00:00.000Z to 2026-08-20T18:00:00.000Z\",\"title\":\"Fed officials signal possible rate hikes if inflation persists\",\"sources\":[{\"name\":\"LA Post\",\"url\":\"https://www.lapost.com/tag/monetary-policy\"}],\"outcome\":\"25 bps increase\",\"priceBefore\":25,\"priceAfter\":41},{\"timestamp\":\"2026-08-24 12:00:00+00\",\"unixTime\":1787572800,\"priceChange\":5,\"summary\":\"On August 24, 2026, the Fed reiterated its stance by keeping rates unchanged at 3.50%-3.75%, citing solid economic activity and elevated inflation partly due to supply shocks. The statement reaffirmed commitment to price stability, with three dissenters favoring a 25 bps hike, sustaining market expectations for a September increase.\",\"timeRange\":\"2026-08-24T06:00:00.000Z to 2026-08-24T18:00:00.000Z\",\"title\":\"Federal Reserve maintains rates amid persistent inflation and economic growth\",\"sources\":[{\"name\":\"Ahmedabad Mirror\",\"url\":\"https://www.ahmedabadmirror.com/us-federal-reserve-holds-int-rates-steady/81918754.html\"}],\"outcome\":\"No change\",\"priceBefore\":63,\"priceAfter\":68},{\"timestamp\":\"2026-08-24 12:00:00+00\",\"unixTime\":1787572800,\"priceChange\":-6,\"summary\":\"On August 24, the Fed kept rates unchanged at 3.5%-3.75%, citing solid economic growth amid elevated inflation and geopolitical risks. Three policymakers dissented, favoring a 25 bps hike, underscoring ongoing inflation concerns.\",\"timeRange\":\"2026-08-24T06:00:00.000Z to 2026-08-24T18:00:00.000Z\",\"title\":\"Federal Reserve Holds Interest Rates Steady in August 2026 Despite Inflation and Global Uncertainty\",\"sources\":[{\"name\":\"Ahmedabad Mirror\",\"url\":\"https://www.ahmedabadmirror.com/us-federal-reserve-holds-int-rates-steady/81918754.html\"}],\"outcome\":\"No change\",\"priceBefore\":62,\"priceAfter\":56},{\"timestamp\":\"2026-08-24 12:00:00+00\",\"unixTime\":1787572800,\"priceChange\":5,\"summary\":\"On August 24, 2026, the Fed reiterated its commitment to maintaining rates at 3.50%-3.75% due to ongoing inflation pressures and a solid economy, with three dissenters again favoring a hike. This reinforced market expectations for a potential September increase.\",\"timeRange\":\"2026-08-24T06:00:00.000Z to 2026-08-24T18:00:00.000Z\",\"title\":\"Federal Reserve holds rates steady amid solid economic growth and persistent inflation\",\"sources\":[{\"name\":\"Ahmedabad Mirror\",\"url\":\"https://www.ahmedabadmirror.com/us-federal-reserve-holds-int-rates-steady/81918754.html\"}],\"outcome\":\"No change\",\"priceBefore\":63,\"priceAfter\":68},{\"timestamp\":\"2026-08-26 12:00:00+00\",\"unixTime\":1787745600,\"priceChange\":-2,\"summary\":\"The upcoming revised GDP estimate and PCE inflation report on August 26 are key data points that markets are watching closely to assess economic momentum and inflation trends ahead of the September FOMC meeting, influencing rate hike expectations.\",\"timeRange\":\"2026-08-26T06:00:00.000Z to 2026-08-26T18:00:00.000Z\",\"title\":\"Second-quarter GDP revision and PCE inflation report ahead of September FOMC\",\"sources\":[{\"name\":\"GO Markets\",\"url\":\"https://gomarkets.com/en-au/articles/us-market-drivers-august-2026\"}],\"outcome\":\"25 bps increase\",\"priceBefore\":49,\"priceAfter\":47},{\"timestamp\":\"2026-08-26 12:00:00+00\",\"unixTime\":1787745600,\"priceChange\":25,\"summary\":\"The PCE price index, the Fed's preferred inflation measure, increased 0.2% in July 2026, maintaining an annual rate of 3.7%, unchanged from June. This steady inflation reading contributed to market expectations of a likely 25 bps rate hike in September to address persistent inflation pressures.\",\"timeRange\":\"2026-08-26T06:00:00.000Z to 2026-08-26T18:00:00.000Z\",\"title\":\"Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index Holds Steady in July\",\"sources\":[{\"name\":\"The Washington Times\",\"url\":\"https://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2026/aug/26/inflation-index-prized-fed-holds-steady-july/\"}],\"outcome\":\"25 bps increase\",\"priceBefore\":28,\"priceAfter\":53},{\"timestamp\":\"2026-08-26 12:00:00+00\",\"unixTime\":1787745600,\"priceChange\":5,\"summary\":\"The Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta's GDPNow model revised its Q3 GDP growth estimate upward to 4.6%, signaling robust economic momentum. This stronger growth outlook reduced expectations for imminent rate cuts and supported market pricing for a possible 25 bps hike in September.\",\"timeRange\":\"2026-08-26T06:00:00.000Z to 2026-08-26T18:00:00.000Z\",\"title\":\"Atlanta Fed GDPNow model shows stronger-than-expected Q3 growth at 4.6%\",\"sources\":[{\"name\":\"Finobird\",\"url\":\"https://finobird.com/calendar/economic/us-federal-reserve-bank-of-atlanta-gdpnow-2026-08-26/\"}],\"outcome\":\"25 bps increase\",\"priceBefore\":28,\"priceAfter\":33},{\"timestamp\":\"2026-08-26 12:00:00+00\",\"unixTime\":1787745600,\"priceChange\":-5,\"summary\":\"The release of July Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) data on August 26 showed inflation remaining elevated but with some signs of moderation, contributing to market uncertainty about the Fed's next move and supporting a balanced view between a rate hold and a 25 bps increase.\",\"timeRange\":\"2026-08-26T06:00:00.000Z to 2026-08-26T18:00:00.000Z\",\"title\":\"July PCE inflation data released amid mixed economic signals\",\"sources\":[{\"name\":\"Regards of Wallstreet\",\"url\":\"https://www.regardsofwallstreet.com/news/august-26-2026-hour-by-hour-pce-gdp-nvidia\"}],\"outcome\":null,\"priceBefore\":33,\"priceAfter\":28},{\"timestamp\":\"2026-08-27 12:00:00+00\",\"unixTime\":1787832000,\"priceChange\":1,\"summary\":\"From August 27 to 29, 2026, the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City hosted the Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium, emphasizing financial innovation and its implications for payments and monetary policy. This event influenced market sentiment by highlighting ongoing policy considerations amid inflation and economic uncertainty ahead of the September FOMC meeting.\",\"timeRange\":\"2026-08-27T06:00:00.000Z to 2026-08-27T18:00:00.000Z\",\"title\":\"Federal Reserve hosts Jackson Hole Economic Symposium focusing on financial innovation and policy\",\"sources\":[{\"name\":\"FinanceCalendar\",\"url\":\"https://www.financecalendar.com/event/jackson-hole-economic-symposium-2026/\"}],\"outcome\":\"No change\",\"priceBefore\":59,\"priceAfter\":60},{\"timestamp\":\"2026-08-27 12:00:00+00\",\"unixTime\":1787832000,\"priceChange\":-8,\"summary\":\"The annual Jackson Hole Symposium brought together central bankers and policymakers to discuss financial innovation and its implications for monetary policy, influencing market expectations ahead of the September FOMC meeting.\",\"timeRange\":\"2026-08-27T06:00:00.000Z to 2026-08-27T18:00:00.000Z\",\"title\":\"Jackson Hole Economic Symposium focuses on financial innovation and policy implications\",\"sources\":[{\"name\":\"Finance Calendar\",\"url\":\"https://www.financecalendar.com/event/jackson-hole-economic-symposium-2026/\"}],\"outcome\":\"25 bps increase\",\"priceBefore\":35,\"priceAfter\":27},{\"timestamp\":\"2026-08-27 12:00:00+00\",\"unixTime\":1787832000,\"priceChange\":21,\"summary\":\"On August 27, 2026, media coverage highlighted Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's cautious communication style amid ongoing inflation concerns and political pressures. This uncertainty contributed to market volatility and influenced the rising odds of a 25 bps rate increase at the September meeting.\",\"timeRange\":\"2026-08-27T06:00:00.000Z to 2026-08-27T18:00:00.000Z\",\"title\":\"New Fed Chair Kevin Warsh Faces Pressure to Clarify Inflation and Rate Views\",\"sources\":[{\"name\":\"LA Post\",\"url\":\"https://www.lapost.com/tag/monetary-policy\"}],\"outcome\":\"25 bps increase\",\"priceBefore\":31,\"priceAfter\":52},{\"timestamp\":\"2026-08-27 12:00:00+00\",\"unixTime\":1787832000,\"priceChange\":11,\"summary\":\"The Jackson Hole Economic Symposium held August 27-29, 2026, provided a platform for Federal Reserve officials and economists to discuss inflation risks and monetary policy, influencing market expectations for a possible rate hike at the September FOMC meeting.\",\"timeRange\":\"2026-08-27T06:00:00.000Z to 2026-08-27T18:00:00.000Z\",\"title\":\"Jackson Hole Economic Symposium 2026 sets stage for September Fed decision\",\"sources\":[{\"name\":\"Finance Calendar\",\"url\":\"https://www.financecalendar.com/event/jackson-hole-economic-symposium-2026/\"}],\"outcome\":\"25 bps increase\",\"priceBefore\":44,\"priceAfter\":55},{\"timestamp\":\"2026-08-27 12:00:00+00\",\"unixTime\":1787832000,\"priceChange\":0,\"summary\":\"Kevin Warsh, who took over as Federal Reserve Chair in May 2026, has changed the Fed's communication approach by providing less explicit guidance on the economy and inflation, increasing market uncertainty about future rate moves ahead of the September meeting.\",\"timeRange\":\"2026-08-27T06:00:00.000Z to 2026-08-27T18:00:00.000Z\",\"title\":\"New Fed Chair Kevin Warsh adopts cautious communication style amid policy crossroads\",\"sources\":[{\"name\":\"LA Post\",\"url\":\"https://www.lapost.com/tag/monetary-policy\"}],\"outcome\":null,\"priceBefore\":null,\"priceAfter\":null},{\"timestamp\":\"2026-08-27 12:00:00+00\",\"unixTime\":1787832000,\"priceChange\":11,\"summary\":\"The Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City hosted the 2026 Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium, where discussions on financial innovation and monetary policy implications took place. While not directly causing immediate price moves, the event shaped market expectations about the Fed's cautious approach and potential future rate decisions.\",\"timeRange\":\"2026-08-27T06:00:00.000Z to 2026-08-27T18:00:00.000Z\",\"title\":\"Jackson Hole Economic Symposium focuses on financial innovation and policy implications\",\"sources\":[{\"name\":\"FinanceCalendar\",\"url\":\"https://www.financecalendar.com/event/jackson-hole-economic-symposium-2026/\"}],\"outcome\":\"No change\",\"priceBefore\":59,\"priceAfter\":70},{\"timestamp\":\"2026-08-27 12:00:00+00\",\"unixTime\":1787832000,\"priceChange\":16,\"summary\":\"The upcoming Jackson Hole Symposium from August 27-29 is a key event where Fed officials discuss monetary policy and economic outlook, influencing market expectations ahead of the September FOMC meeting. Anticipation of insights from this event contributed to price movements favoring no change or a modest rate increase.\",\"timeRange\":\"2026-08-27T06:00:00.000Z to 2026-08-27T18:00:00.000Z\",\"title\":\"Federal Reserve to host Jackson Hole Economic Symposium focusing on financial innovation\",\"sources\":[{\"name\":\"Finance Calendar\",\"url\":\"https://www.financecalendar.com/event/jackson-hole-economic-symposium-2026/\"}],\"outcome\":\"No change\",\"priceBefore\":53,\"priceAfter\":69},{\"timestamp\":\"2026-08-28 12:00:00+00\",\"unixTime\":1787918400,\"priceChange\":14,\"summary\":\"In his August 28 speech, Chair Warsh stressed the importance of relying on current data, maintaining the 2% inflation target, and prioritizing short-term interest rates. This reinforced market expectations for a cautious but hawkish approach, supporting the likelihood of a 25 bps hike in September.\",\"timeRange\":\"2026-08-28T06:00:00.000Z to 2026-08-28T18:00:00.000Z\",\"title\":\"Fed Chair Warsh's Jackson Hole speech emphasizes data-driven policy and inflation fight\",\"sources\":[{\"name\":\"Creative Investment Research\",\"url\":\"https://www.prlog.org/13167441-creative-investment-research-on-fed-transparency-representation-and-monetary-policy-credibility.html\"}],\"outcome\":\"25 bps increase\",\"priceBefore\":33,\"priceAfter\":47},{\"timestamp\":\"2026-08-28 12:00:00+00\",\"unixTime\":1787918400,\"priceChange\":25,\"summary\":\"At the Jackson Hole Economic Symposium, Fed Chair Kevin Warsh emphasized that underlying inflation is not slowing and reiterated the importance of the PCE price index as the inflation gauge. His remarks were interpreted as hawkish, reinforcing market expectations for a 25 bps rate hike at the September FOMC meeting.\",\"timeRange\":\"2026-08-28T06:00:00.000Z to 2026-08-28T18:00:00.000Z\",\"title\":\"Fed Chair Kevin Warsh Signals Hawkish Stance at Jackson Hole\",\"sources\":[{\"name\":\"Trading Economics\",\"url\":\"https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/interest-rate\"}],\"outcome\":\"25 bps increase\",\"priceBefore\":28,\"priceAfter\":53},{\"timestamp\":\"2026-08-28 12:00:00+00\",\"unixTime\":1787918400,\"priceChange\":-9,\"summary\":\"The Fed maintained the federal funds rate at 3.5%-3.75% in late August, reaffirming its commitment to price stability despite elevated inflation and geopolitical risks. The decision was supported by a 9-3 vote, with dissenters favoring a hike, reflecting persistent inflation concerns.\",\"timeRange\":\"2026-08-28T06:00:00.000Z to 2026-08-28T18:00:00.000Z\",\"title\":\"US Federal Reserve holds interest rates steady amid ongoing inflation and economic uncertainty\",\"sources\":[{\"name\":\"Ahmedabad Mirror\",\"url\":\"https://www.ahmedabadmirror.com/us-federal-reserve-holds-int-rates-steady/81918754.html\"}],\"outcome\":\"No change\",\"priceBefore\":50,\"priceAfter\":41},{\"timestamp\":\"2026-08-28 12:00:00+00\",\"unixTime\":1787918400,\"priceChange\":0,\"summary\":\"The Fed maintained the federal funds rate at 3.50%-3.75% in August, despite ongoing inflation above target and political pressure for cuts. The decision underscored the Fed's commitment to price stability and contributed to market expectations of a 25 bps increase in September.\",\"timeRange\":\"2026-08-28T06:00:00.000Z to 2026-08-28T18:00:00.000Z\",\"title\":\"Federal Reserve holds interest rates steady amid political and economic pressures\",\"sources\":[{\"name\":\"Ahmedabad Mirror\",\"url\":\"https://www.ahmedabadmirror.com/us-federal-reserve-holds-int-rates-steady/81918754.html\"}],\"outcome\":\"No change\",\"priceBefore\":48,\"priceAfter\":48},{\"timestamp\":\"2026-08-28 12:00:00+00\",\"unixTime\":1787918400,\"priceChange\":25,\"summary\":\"In his first Jackson Hole speech as Fed Chair, Kevin Warsh emphasized the Fed's commitment to returning inflation to 2%, signaling that rate hikes remain on the table. His hawkish tone increased market expectations for a September rate hike above 50%.\",\"timeRange\":\"2026-08-28T06:00:00.000Z to 2026-08-28T18:00:00.000Z\",\"title\":\"Fed Chair Kevin Warsh delivers hawkish keynote at Jackson Hole\",\"sources\":[{\"name\":\"Regards of Wallstreet\",\"url\":\"https://www.regardsofwallstreet.com/news/jackson-hole-2026-dates-schedule-warsh-first-speech\"}],\"outcome\":\"25 bps increase\",\"priceBefore\":35,\"priceAfter\":60},{\"timestamp\":\"2026-08-28 12:00:00+00\",\"unixTime\":1787918400,\"priceChange\":8,\"summary\":\"At the 2026 Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium, Fed Chair Kevin Warsh gave his first keynote speech, signaling a firm stance against inflation and supporting the possibility of future rate hikes. This speech increased market expectations for a September rate increase.\",\"timeRange\":\"2026-08-28T06:00:00.000Z to 2026-08-28T18:00:00.000Z\",\"title\":\"New Fed Chair Kevin Warsh signals hawkish stance in first Jackson Hole speech\",\"sources\":[{\"name\":\"Federal Reserve\",\"url\":\"https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/warsh20260828a.htm\"},{\"name\":\"LA Post\",\"url\":\"https://www.lapost.com/tag/monetary-policy\"}],\"outcome\":\"25 bps increase\",\"priceBefore\":37,\"priceAfter\":45},{\"timestamp\":\"2026-08-31 12:00:00+00\",\"unixTime\":1788177600,\"priceChange\":0,\"summary\":\"In late August, the Fed maintained its benchmark interest rate at 3.5%-3.75%, reaffirming its commitment to price stability despite ongoing inflation above target and solid economic activity. The decision followed the July meeting and preceded the September FOMC, with three dissenters again favoring a hike, underscoring internal Fed divisions.\",\"timeRange\":\"2026-08-31T06:00:00.000Z to 2026-08-31T18:00:00.000Z\",\"title\":\"Federal Reserve holds interest rates steady amid persistent inflation and economic growth\",\"sources\":[{\"name\":\"Ahmedabad Mirror\",\"url\":\"https://www.ahmedabadmirror.com/us-federal-reserve-holds-int-rates-steady/81918754.html\"}],\"outcome\":\"No change\",\"priceBefore\":null,\"priceAfter\":null},{\"timestamp\":\"2026-08-31 12:00:00+00\",\"unixTime\":1788177600,\"priceChange\":19,\"summary\":\"The Federal Reserve kept its benchmark interest rate unchanged at 3.50%-3.75% in late August, reaffirming its commitment to price stability despite elevated inflation and solid economic activity. The decision, supported by a 9-3 vote with dissenters favoring a hike, maintained market expectations for a potential 25 bps increase in the upcoming September meeting.\",\"timeRange\":\"2026-08-31T06:00:00.000Z to 2026-08-31T18:00:00.000Z\",\"title\":\"Federal Reserve maintains rates steady at 3.50%-3.75% amid ongoing inflation and economic growth\",\"sources\":[{\"name\":\"Ahmedabad Mirror\",\"url\":\"https://www.ahmedabadmirror.com/us-federal-reserve-holds-int-rates-steady/81918754.html\"}],\"outcome\":\"25 bps increase\",\"priceBefore\":41,\"priceAfter\":60},{\"timestamp\":\"2026-08-31 12:00:00+00\",\"unixTime\":1788177600,\"priceChange\":-4,\"summary\":\"On August 31, the Federal Reserve maintained the federal funds rate at 3.50%-3.75%, reaffirming its commitment to price stability despite ongoing inflation above target and geopolitical risks from the Middle East conflict. The decision was supported by a 9-3 vote, with dissenters again favoring a rate hike, keeping markets attentive to a possible September increase.\",\"timeRange\":\"2026-08-31T06:00:00.000Z to 2026-08-31T18:00:00.000Z\",\"title\":\"Federal Reserve Holds Rates Steady Amid Persistent Inflation and Global Uncertainty\",\"sources\":[{\"name\":\"Ahmedabad Mirror\",\"url\":\"https://www.ahmedabadmirror.com/us-federal-reserve-holds-int-rates-steady/81918754.html\"}],\"outcome\":\"No change\",\"priceBefore\":54,\"priceAfter\":50},{\"timestamp\":\"2026-09-02 12:00:00+00\",\"unixTime\":1788350400,\"priceChange\":18,\"summary\":\"As the September FOMC meeting approached, market pricing indicated roughly a two-thirds probability of a 25 basis point rate increase, driven by persistent inflation and hawkish Fed signals from July.\",\"timeRange\":\"2026-09-02T06:00:00.000Z to 2026-09-02T18:00:00.000Z\",\"title\":\"Market shifts toward expecting a September 2026 Fed rate hike\",\"sources\":[{\"name\":\"Bitrue\",\"url\":\"https://www.bitrue.com/blog/fomc-meeting-september-2026\"}],\"outcome\":\"25 bps increase\",\"priceBefore\":33,\"priceAfter\":51},{\"timestamp\":\"2026-09-02 12:00:00+00\",\"unixTime\":1788350400,\"priceChange\":6,\"summary\":\"In early September 2026, persistent inflation and hawkish signals from Fed officials increased market pricing for a 25 bps rate hike at the September 15-16 meeting, reflected in rising probabilities and shifting investor sentiment.\",\"timeRange\":\"2026-09-02T06:00:00.000Z to 2026-09-02T18:00:00.000Z\",\"title\":\"Rising inflation and hawkish Fed signals boost odds of September rate hike\",\"sources\":[{\"name\":\"CME FedWatch\",\"url\":\"https://www.cmegroup.com/trading/interest-rates/countdown-to-fomc.html\"}],\"outcome\":\"25 bps increase\",\"priceBefore\":44,\"priceAfter\":50},{\"timestamp\":\"2026-09-02 12:00:00+00\",\"unixTime\":1788350400,\"priceChange\":23,\"summary\":\"Ongoing conflict in the Middle East and resulting energy price shocks maintained inflationary pressures, limiting the Fed's ability to ease policy and increasing market expectations for a rate hike at the September meeting.\",\"timeRange\":\"2026-09-02T06:00:00.000Z to 2026-09-02T18:00:00.000Z\",\"title\":\"Rising geopolitical tensions keep inflation elevated, pressuring Fed policy outlook\",\"sources\":[{\"name\":\"BlockNews\",\"url\":\"https://blocknews.com/federal-reserve-holds-interest-rates-steady-here-is-why-markets-are-watching-september/\"}],\"outcome\":\"25 bps increase\",\"priceBefore\":28,\"priceAfter\":51},{\"timestamp\":\"2026-09-03 12:00:00+00\",\"unixTime\":1788436800,\"priceChange\":17,\"summary\":\"Governor Waller stated that current interest rates may be sufficient to cool inflation and that holding rates steady at the September meeting would not significantly alter the inflation path. His comments reduced immediate expectations for a hike, though strong August jobs data later shifted odds back toward a possible 25 bps increase.\",\"timeRange\":\"2026-09-03T06:00:00.000Z to 2026-09-03T18:00:00.000Z\",\"title\":\"Fed Governor Christopher Waller signals preference to hold rates steady if inflation eases\",\"sources\":[{\"name\":\"Coingabbar\",\"url\":\"https://www.coingabbar.com/en/crypto-currency-news/fed-rate-decision-september-2026-rate-hold-crypto-impact\"}],\"outcome\":\"No change\",\"priceBefore\":33,\"priceAfter\":50},{\"timestamp\":\"2026-09-03 12:00:00+00\",\"unixTime\":1788436800,\"priceChange\":8,\"summary\":\"Governor Christopher Waller delivered a speech on September 3, 2026, emphasizing that inflation remains meaningfully above the Fed's 2% goal and suggesting that a rate increase at the September 15-16 meeting may be appropriate. 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The policy decision will be announced at 2:00 PM Eastern Time on September 16, followed by the Fed Chair’s press conference at around 2:30 PM ET.\\n\\nThis market will resolve according to the number of dissenting votes recorded at the September Federal Open Market Committee monetary policy meeting, specifically those dissenting on the Fed Funds Rate decision.\\n\\nThe resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for September 15-16, 2026, according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.\\n\\nThis market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their September meeting with relevant data is issued; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.\",\"volume\":3125.1070959999997,\"active\":true,\"closed\":false,\"similarity\":6,\"image\":\"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/will-anyone-dissent-at-the-next-fed-meeting-9E-3Zl1neBVn.jpg\",\"outcomes\":\"[\\\"Yes\\\", \\\"No\\\"]\",\"outcomePrices\":\"[\\\"0.305\\\", \\\"0.695\\\"]\",\"tags\":[{\"id\":\"159\",\"label\":\"Fed\",\"slug\":\"fed\",\"forceShow\":false,\"publishedAt\":\"2023-11-02 21:27:18.98+00\",\"createdAt\":\"2023-11-02T21:27:18.986Z\",\"updatedAt\":\"2026-04-17T21:09:42.963001Z\",\"isCarousel\":false,\"requiresTranslation\":false},{\"id\":\"101549\",\"label\":\"jpow\",\"slug\":\"jpow\",\"createdAt\":\"2024-12-18T23:06:40.21229Z\",\"updatedAt\":\"2026-04-17T20:36:56.433462Z\",\"requiresTranslation\":false},{\"id\":\"100196\",\"label\":\"Fed Rates\",\"slug\":\"fed-rates\",\"forceShow\":true,\"updatedAt\":\"2026-04-17T17:15:07.579162Z\",\"requiresTranslation\":false},{\"id\":\"103176\",\"label\":\"Global Rates\",\"slug\":\"Global-Rates\",\"forceShow\":false,\"createdAt\":\"2026-01-16T22:01:30.899064Z\",\"updatedAt\":\"2026-04-17T17:21:01.178149Z\",\"isCarousel\":false,\"requiresTranslation\":false},{\"id\":\"101550\",\"label\":\"Jerome Powell\",\"slug\":\"jerome-powell\",\"createdAt\":\"2024-12-18T23:06:40.410115Z\",\"updatedAt\":\"2026-04-17T17:26:03.169374Z\",\"requiresTranslation\":false},{\"id\":\"165\",\"label\":\"United States\",\"slug\":\"united-states\",\"forceShow\":false,\"publishedAt\":\"2023-11-02 21:29:07.547+00\",\"createdAt\":\"2023-11-02T21:29:07.565Z\",\"updatedAt\":\"2026-04-17T20:49:24.504438Z\",\"isCarousel\":false,\"requiresTranslation\":false},{\"id\":\"129\",\"label\":\"federal reserve\",\"slug\":\"federal-reserve\",\"publishedAt\":\"2023-11-02 21:23:29.81+00\",\"createdAt\":\"2023-11-02T21:23:29.824Z\",\"updatedAt\":\"2026-04-17T20:44:33.640307Z\",\"requiresTranslation\":false}],\"series\":[{\"id\":\"10475\",\"ticker\":\"dissent-at-fed-meeting\",\"slug\":\"dissent-at-fed-meeting\",\"title\":\"Dissent at Fed meeting\",\"seriesType\":\"single\",\"recurrence\":\"daily\",\"image\":\"\",\"icon\":\"\",\"active\":true,\"closed\":false,\"archived\":false,\"featured\":false,\"restricted\":true,\"createdAt\":\"2025-10-29T21:13:01.778646Z\",\"updatedAt\":\"2026-09-08T07:56:57.359362Z\",\"volume24hr\":175.02666000000002,\"volume\":36040.528379,\"liquidity\":58759.2135,\"commentCount\":59,\"requiresTranslation\":false}],\"eventSlug\":\"how-many-dissent-at-the-september-fed-meeting\",\"endDate\":\"2026-09-16T15:59:00Z\",\"endDateIso\":\"2026-09-16\",\"startDate\":\"2026-08-27T23:01:43Z\",\"startDateIso\":\"2026-08-27\"},{\"id\":\"677147\",\"slug\":\"fed-emergency-rate-cut-before-2027\",\"title\":\"Fed emergency rate cut before 2027?\",\"description\":\"This market will resolve to \\\"Yes\\\" if the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) holds an emergency meeting after which the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lowered between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. 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