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Exclusive: Vitol trader Addison, architect of US-Venezuela export deal, set to retire
Reuters · 2026-03-31
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the Money</a></li><li><a data-testid="Body" href="/markets/asia/" data-subnav="Markets_Asian Markets" class="text-module__text__0GDob text-module__medium-grey__yZtlg text-module__regular__qJJtA text-module__small__sph8i body-module__base__o--Cl body-module__small_body__gOmDf nav-dropdown-module__subsection-link__T9-bB">Asian Markets</a></li><li><a data-testid="Body" href="/markets/carbon/" data-subnav="Markets_Carbon Markets" class="text-module__text__0GDob text-module__medium-grey__yZtlg text-module__regular__qJJtA text-module__small__sph8i body-module__base__o--Cl body-module__small_body__gOmDf nav-dropdown-module__subsection-link__T9-bB">Carbon Markets</a></li><li><a data-testid="Body" href="/markets/commodities/" data-subnav="Markets_Commodities" class="text-module__text__0GDob text-module__medium-grey__yZtlg text-module__regular__qJJtA text-module__small__sph8i body-module__base__o--Cl body-module__small_body__gOmDf 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nav-dropdown-module__subsection-link__T9-bB">Emerging Markets</a></li><li><a data-testid="Body" href="/markets/etf/" data-subnav="Markets_ETFs" class="text-module__text__0GDob text-module__medium-grey__yZtlg text-module__regular__qJJtA text-module__small__sph8i body-module__base__o--Cl body-module__small_body__gOmDf nav-dropdown-module__subsection-link__T9-bB">ETFs</a></li><li><a data-testid="Body" href="/markets/europe/" data-subnav="Markets_European Markets" class="text-module__text__0GDob text-module__medium-grey__yZtlg text-module__regular__qJJtA text-module__small__sph8i body-module__base__o--Cl body-module__small_body__gOmDf nav-dropdown-module__subsection-link__T9-bB">European Markets</a></li><li><a data-testid="Body" href="/markets/funds/" data-subnav="Markets_Funds" class="text-module__text__0GDob text-module__medium-grey__yZtlg text-module__regular__qJJtA text-module__small__sph8i body-module__base__o--Cl body-module__small_body__gOmDf nav-dropdown-module__subsection-link__T9-bB">Funds</a></li><li><a data-testid="Body" href="/markets/econ-world/" data-subnav="Markets_Econ World" class="text-module__text__0GDob text-module__medium-grey__yZtlg text-module__regular__qJJtA text-module__small__sph8i body-module__base__o--Cl body-module__small_body__gOmDf nav-dropdown-module__subsection-link__T9-bB">Econ World</a></li><li><a data-testid="Body" href="/markets/global-market-data/" data-subnav="Markets_Global Market Data" class="text-module__text__0GDob text-module__medium-grey__yZtlg text-module__regular__qJJtA text-module__small__sph8i body-module__base__o--Cl body-module__small_body__gOmDf nav-dropdown-module__subsection-link__T9-bB">Global Market Data</a></li><li><a data-testid="Body" href="/markets/rates-bonds/" data-subnav="Markets_Rates & Bonds" class="text-module__text__0GDob text-module__medium-grey__yZtlg text-module__regular__qJJtA text-module__small__sph8i body-module__base__o--Cl body-module__small_body__gOmDf nav-dropdown-module__subsection-link__T9-bB">Rates & Bonds</a></li><li><a data-testid="Body" href="/markets/stocks/" data-subnav="Markets_Stocks" class="text-module__text__0GDob text-module__medium-grey__yZtlg text-module__regular__qJJtA text-module__small__sph8i body-module__base__o--Cl body-module__small_body__gOmDf nav-dropdown-module__subsection-link__T9-bB">Stocks</a></li><li><a data-testid="Body" href="/markets/us/" data-subnav="Markets_U.S. Markets" class="text-module__text__0GDob text-module__medium-grey__yZtlg text-module__regular__qJJtA text-module__small__sph8i body-module__base__o--Cl body-module__small_body__gOmDf nav-dropdown-module__subsection-link__T9-bB">U.S. Markets</a></li><li><a data-testid="Body" href="/markets/wealth/" data-subnav="Markets_Wealth" class="text-module__text__0GDob text-module__medium-grey__yZtlg text-module__regular__qJJtA text-module__small__sph8i body-module__base__o--Cl body-module__small_body__gOmDf nav-dropdown-module__subsection-link__T9-bB">Wealth</a></li></ul></div></div></div></div></div></div><span data-focus-scope-end="true" hidden=""></span></div></li><li class="nav-bar-module__nav-item__EUpy4 nav-bar-module__category__bRFMO"><div class="nav-bar-module__nav-button__mCZoN"><a data-testid="Body" href="/sustainability/" data-nav="Sustainability" class="text-module__text__0GDob text-module__graphite__fZRmg text-module__medium__2Rl30 text-module__extra_small__8Buss body-module__base__o--Cl body-module__extra_small_body__Bfz20 link">Sustainability</a><button data-testid="DropDownButton" type="button" class="nav-bar-module__button__YVhxE" tabindex="0" data-react-aria-pressable="true" aria-label="Sustainability" aria-haspopup="true" aria-expanded="false"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" fill="none" viewBox="0 0 15 9" aria-hidden="true" focusable="false" role="presentation" data-testid="IconChevronDown" class="nav-bar-module__arrow__D1LfD chevron-down"><path d="M14.093.337c-.411-.45-1.028-.45-1.44 0L7.2 6.3 1.749.337c-.411-.45-1.028-.45-1.44 0a1.16 1.16 0 0 0 0 1.576l6.171 6.75c.206.225.515.337.72.337.205 0 .515-.112.72-.338l6.172-6.75a1.16 1.16 0 0 0 0-1.575h.001Z"></path></svg></button></div><div class="nav-bar-module__hidden__1Qi40" data-testid="sectionDropdownContainer"><span data-focus-scope-start="true" hidden=""></span><div data-testid="Sustainability" class="nav-bar-module__dropdown__bsmM6" id="react-aria-_R_hkuam_"><div class="nav-dropdown-module__container__X8zm-" data-testid="NavDropdownContainer"><div class="nav-dropdown-module__inner__VS6zv"><div class="nav-dropdown-module__submenu__-HR75"><div class="nav-dropdown-module__inner__VS6zv"><h2 data-testid="Heading" class="text-module__text__0GDob text-module__dark-grey__UFC18 text-module__medium__2Rl30 text-module__heading_6__u1KdJ heading-module__base__p-zaD heading-module__heading_6__-zrtS"><a data-testid="SectionDropdown" href="/sustainability/" class="text-module__text__0GDob text-module__graphite__fZRmg text-module__medium__2Rl30 text-module__body__9d61E body-module__base__o--Cl body-module__body_alt__0ewNU nav-dropdown-module__section-link__Mvj6r">Browse Sustainability</a></h2><div class="nav-dropdown-module__sections__i94UN"><ul class="nav-dropdown-module__sections-group__CPSAa"><li><a data-testid="Body" href="/sustainability/boards-policy-regulation/" data-subnav="Sustainability_Boards, Policy & Regulation" class="text-module__text__0GDob text-module__medium-grey__yZtlg text-module__regular__qJJtA text-module__small__sph8i body-module__base__o--Cl body-module__small_body__gOmDf nav-dropdown-module__subsection-link__T9-bB">Boards, Policy & Regulation</a></li><li><a data-testid="Body" href="/sustainability/climate-energy/" data-subnav="Sustainability_Climate & Energy" class="text-module__text__0GDob text-module__medium-grey__yZtlg text-module__regular__qJJtA text-module__small__sph8i body-module__base__o--Cl body-module__small_body__gOmDf nav-dropdown-module__subsection-link__T9-bB">Climate & Energy</a></li><li><a data-testid="Body" href="/sustainability/land-use-biodiversity/" data-subnav="Sustainability_Land Use & Biodiversity" class="text-module__text__0GDob text-module__medium-grey__yZtlg text-module__regular__qJJtA text-module__small__sph8i body-module__base__o--Cl body-module__small_body__gOmDf nav-dropdown-module__subsection-link__T9-bB">Land Use & Biodiversity</a></li><li><a data-testid="Body" href="/sustainability/society-equity/" data-subnav="Sustainability_Society & Equity" class="text-module__text__0GDob text-module__medium-grey__yZtlg text-module__regular__qJJtA text-module__small__sph8i body-module__base__o--Cl body-module__small_body__gOmDf nav-dropdown-module__subsection-link__T9-bB">Society & Equity</a></li><li><a data-testid="Body" href="/sustainability/sustainable-finance-reporting/" data-subnav="Sustainability_Sustainable Finance & Reporting" class="text-module__text__0GDob text-module__medium-grey__yZtlg text-module__regular__qJJtA text-module__small__sph8i body-module__base__o--Cl body-module__small_body__gOmDf nav-dropdown-module__subsection-link__T9-bB">Sustainable Finance & Reporting</a></li><li><a data-testid="Body" href="/sustainability/the-switch/" data-subnav="Sustainability_The Switch" class="text-module__text__0GDob text-module__medium-grey__yZtlg text-module__regular__qJJtA text-module__small__sph8i body-module__base__o--Cl body-module__small_body__gOmDf nav-dropdown-module__subsection-link__T9-bB">The Switch</a></li><li><a data-testid="Body" href="/sustainability/reuters-impact/" data-subnav="Sustainability_Reuters Impact" class="text-module__text__0GDob text-module__medium-grey__yZtlg text-module__regular__qJJtA text-module__small__sph8i body-module__base__o--Cl body-module__small_body__gOmDf nav-dropdown-module__subsection-link__T9-bB">Reuters Impact</a></li><li><a data-testid="Body" href="/sustainability/cop/" data-subnav="Sustainability_COP30" class="text-module__text__0GDob text-module__medium-grey__yZtlg text-module__regular__qJJtA text-module__small__sph8i body-module__base__o--Cl body-module__small_body__gOmDf nav-dropdown-module__subsection-link__T9-bB">COP30</a></li></ul></div></div></div></div></div></div><span data-focus-scope-end="true" hidden=""></span></div></li><li class="nav-bar-module__nav-item__EUpy4"><div class="nav-bar-module__nav-button__mCZoN"><button data-testid="Text" type="button" tabindex="0" data-react-aria-pressable="true" aria-haspopup="true" aria-expanded="false" class="text-module__text__0GDob text-module__graphite__fZRmg text-module__medium__2Rl30 text-module__extra_small__8Buss nav-bar-module__button__YVhxE">More<svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" fill="none" viewBox="0 0 15 9" aria-hidden="true" focusable="false" role="presentation" data-testid="IconChevronDown" class="nav-bar-module__arrow__D1LfD nav-bar-module__more__C7bEy chevron-down"><path d="M14.093.337c-.411-.45-1.028-.45-1.44 0L7.2 6.3 1.749.337c-.411-.45-1.028-.45-1.44 0a1.16 1.16 0 0 0 0 1.576l6.171 6.75c.206.225.515.337.72.337.205 0 .515-.112.72-.338l6.172-6.75a1.16 1.16 0 0 0 0-1.575h.001Z"></path></svg></button></div><div class="nav-bar-module__hidden__1Qi40" data-testid="moreSectionDropdownContainer"><span data-focus-scope-start="true" hidden=""></span><div class="nav-bar-module__dropdown__bsmM6" id="react-aria-_R_2kuam_"><div class="nav-dropdown-module__container__X8zm-" data-testid="NavDropdownContainer"><div class="nav-dropdown-module__inner__VS6zv"><div class="nav-dropdown-module__submenu__-HR75"><div class="nav-dropdown-module__inner__VS6zv"><div class="nav-dropdown-module__more-sections__9LctJ"><div class="nav-dropdown-module__group-container__B7ZaS"><section data-testid="MoreDropdown" class="nav-dropdown-module__more-section-group__6-L2e nav-dropdown-module__has-children__Wpz3R"><h2 data-testid="Heading" class="text-module__text__0GDob text-module__dark-grey__UFC18 text-module__medium__2Rl30 text-module__heading_6__u1KdJ heading-module__base__p-zaD heading-module__heading_6__-zrtS"><a data-testid="Body" href="/legal/" class="text-module__text__0GDob text-module__graphite__fZRmg text-module__medium__2Rl30 text-module__body__9d61E body-module__base__o--Cl body-module__body_alt__0ewNU nav-dropdown-module__section-link__Mvj6r">Legal</a></h2><ul class="nav-dropdown-module__subsections__ElxDL"><li><a data-testid="Body" href="/legal/government/" class="text-module__text__0GDob text-module__medium-grey__yZtlg text-module__regular__qJJtA text-module__small__sph8i body-module__base__o--Cl body-module__small_body__gOmDf nav-dropdown-module__subsection-link__T9-bB">Government</a></li><li><a data-testid="Body" href="/legal/legalindustry/" class="text-module__text__0GDob text-module__medium-grey__yZtlg text-module__regular__qJJtA text-module__small__sph8i body-module__base__o--Cl body-module__small_body__gOmDf nav-dropdown-module__subsection-link__T9-bB">Legal Industry</a></li><li><a data-testid="Body" href="/legal/litigation/" class="text-module__text__0GDob text-module__medium-grey__yZtlg text-module__regular__qJJtA text-module__small__sph8i body-module__base__o--Cl body-module__small_body__gOmDf nav-dropdown-module__subsection-link__T9-bB">Litigation</a></li><li><a data-testid="Body" href="/legal/transactional/" class="text-module__text__0GDob text-module__medium-grey__yZtlg text-module__regular__qJJtA text-module__small__sph8i body-module__base__o--Cl body-module__small_body__gOmDf nav-dropdown-module__subsection-link__T9-bB">Transactional</a></li><li><a data-testid="Body" href="/legal/us-supreme-court/" class="text-module__text__0GDob text-module__medium-grey__yZtlg text-module__regular__qJJtA text-module__small__sph8i body-module__base__o--Cl body-module__small_body__gOmDf nav-dropdown-module__subsection-link__T9-bB">US Supreme Court</a></li></ul></section><section data-testid="MoreDropdown" class="nav-dropdown-module__more-section-group__6-L2e nav-dropdown-module__has-children__Wpz3R"><h2 data-testid="Heading" class="text-module__text__0GDob text-module__dark-grey__UFC18 text-module__medium__2Rl30 text-module__heading_6__u1KdJ heading-module__base__p-zaD heading-module__heading_6__-zrtS"><a data-testid="Body" href="/commentary/" class="text-module__text__0GDob text-module__graphite__fZRmg text-module__medium__2Rl30 text-module__body__9d61E body-module__base__o--Cl body-module__body_alt__0ewNU nav-dropdown-module__section-link__Mvj6r">Commentary</a></h2><ul class="nav-dropdown-module__subsections__ElxDL"><li><a data-testid="Body" href="/commentary/breakingviews-predictions/" class="text-module__text__0GDob text-module__medium-grey__yZtlg text-module__regular__qJJtA text-module__small__sph8i body-module__base__o--Cl body-module__small_body__gOmDf nav-dropdown-module__subsection-link__T9-bB">Breakingviews Predictions</a></li><li><a data-testid="Body" href="/commentary/breakingviews/" class="text-module__text__0GDob text-module__medium-grey__yZtlg text-module__regular__qJJtA text-module__small__sph8i body-module__base__o--Cl body-module__small_body__gOmDf nav-dropdown-module__subsection-link__T9-bB">Breakingviews</a></li><li><a data-testid="Body" href="/commentary/reuters-open-interest/" class="text-module__text__0GDob text-module__medium-grey__yZtlg text-module__regular__qJJtA text-module__small__sph8i body-module__base__o--Cl body-module__small_body__gOmDf nav-dropdown-module__subsection-link__T9-bB">ROI: Reuters Open Interest</a></li></ul></section><section data-testid="MoreDropdown" class="nav-dropdown-module__more-section-group__6-L2e nav-dropdown-module__has-children__Wpz3R"><h2 data-testid="Heading" class="text-module__text__0GDob text-module__dark-grey__UFC18 text-module__medium__2Rl30 text-module__heading_6__u1KdJ heading-module__base__p-zaD heading-module__heading_6__-zrtS"><a data-testid="Body" href="/technology/" class="text-module__text__0GDob text-module__graphite__fZRmg text-module__medium__2Rl30 text-module__body__9d61E body-module__base__o--Cl body-module__body_alt__0ewNU nav-dropdown-module__section-link__Mvj6r">Technology</a></h2><ul class="nav-dropdown-module__subsections__ElxDL"><li><a data-testid="Body" href="/technology/artificial-intelligence/" class="text-module__text__0GDob text-module__medium-grey__yZtlg text-module__regular__qJJtA text-module__small__sph8i body-module__base__o--Cl body-module__small_body__gOmDf nav-dropdown-module__subsection-link__T9-bB">Artificial Intelligence</a></li><li><a data-testid="Body" href="/technology/cybersecurity/" class="text-module__text__0GDob text-module__medium-grey__yZtlg text-module__regular__qJJtA text-module__small__sph8i body-module__base__o--Cl body-module__small_body__gOmDf nav-dropdown-module__subsection-link__T9-bB">Cybersecurity</a></li><li><a data-testid="Body" href="/technology/space/" class="text-module__text__0GDob text-module__medium-grey__yZtlg text-module__regular__qJJtA text-module__small__sph8i body-module__base__o--Cl body-module__small_body__gOmDf nav-dropdown-module__subsection-link__T9-bB">Space</a></li><li><a data-testid="Body" href="/technology/disrupted/" class="text-module__text__0GDob text-module__medium-grey__yZtlg text-module__regular__qJJtA text-module__small__sph8i body-module__base__o--Cl body-module__small_body__gOmDf nav-dropdown-module__subsection-link__T9-bB">Disrupted</a></li></ul></section><section data-testid="MoreDropdown" class="nav-dropdown-module__more-section-group__6-L2e"><h2 data-testid="Heading" class="text-module__text__0GDob text-module__dark-grey__UFC18 text-module__medium__2Rl30 text-module__heading_6__u1KdJ heading-module__base__p-zaD heading-module__heading_6__-zrtS"><a data-testid="Body" href="/investigations/" class="text-module__text__0GDob text-module__graphite__fZRmg text-module__medium__2Rl30 text-module__body__9d61E body-module__base__o--Cl body-module__body_alt__0ewNU nav-dropdown-module__section-link__Mvj6r">Investigations</a></h2></section><section data-testid="MoreDropdown" class="nav-dropdown-module__more-section-group__6-L2e nav-dropdown-module__has-children__Wpz3R"><h2 data-testid="Heading" class="text-module__text__0GDob text-module__dark-grey__UFC18 text-module__medium__2Rl30 text-module__heading_6__u1KdJ heading-module__base__p-zaD heading-module__heading_6__-zrtS"><a data-testid="Body" href="/sports/" class="text-module__text__0GDob text-module__graphite__fZRmg text-module__medium__2Rl30 text-module__body__9d61E body-module__base__o--Cl body-module__body_alt__0ewNU nav-dropdown-module__section-link__Mvj6r">Sports</a></h2><ul class="nav-dropdown-module__subsections__ElxDL"><li><a data-testid="Body" href="/sports/athletics/" class="text-module__text__0GDob text-module__medium-grey__yZtlg text-module__regular__qJJtA text-module__small__sph8i body-module__base__o--Cl body-module__small_body__gOmDf nav-dropdown-module__subsection-link__T9-bB">Athletics</a></li><li><a data-testid="Body" href="/sports/baseball/" class="text-module__text__0GDob text-module__medium-grey__yZtlg text-module__regular__qJJtA text-module__small__sph8i body-module__base__o--Cl body-module__small_body__gOmDf nav-dropdown-module__subsection-link__T9-bB">Baseball</a></li><li><a data-testid="Body" href="/sports/basketball/" class="text-module__text__0GDob text-module__medium-grey__yZtlg text-module__regular__qJJtA text-module__small__sph8i body-module__base__o--Cl body-module__small_body__gOmDf nav-dropdown-module__subsection-link__T9-bB">Basketball</a></li><li><a data-testid="Body" href="/sports/cricket/" class="text-module__text__0GDob text-module__medium-grey__yZtlg text-module__regular__qJJtA text-module__small__sph8i body-module__base__o--Cl body-module__small_body__gOmDf nav-dropdown-module__subsection-link__T9-bB">Cricket</a></li><li><a data-testid="Body" href="/sports/cycling/" class="text-module__text__0GDob text-module__medium-grey__yZtlg text-module__regular__qJJtA text-module__small__sph8i body-module__base__o--Cl body-module__small_body__gOmDf nav-dropdown-module__subsection-link__T9-bB">Cycling</a></li><li><a data-testid="Body" href="/sports/formula1/" class="text-module__text__0GDob text-module__medium-grey__yZtlg text-module__regular__qJJtA text-module__small__sph8i body-module__base__o--Cl body-module__small_body__gOmDf nav-dropdown-module__subsection-link__T9-bB">Formula 1</a></li><li><a data-testid="Body" href="/sports/golf/" class="text-module__text__0GDob text-module__medium-grey__yZtlg text-module__regular__qJJtA text-module__small__sph8i body-module__base__o--Cl body-module__small_body__gOmDf nav-dropdown-module__subsection-link__T9-bB">Golf</a></li><li><a data-testid="Body" href="/sports/nfl/" class="text-module__text__0GDob text-module__medium-grey__yZtlg text-module__regular__qJJtA text-module__small__sph8i body-module__base__o--Cl body-module__small_body__gOmDf nav-dropdown-module__subsection-link__T9-bB">NFL</a></li><li><a data-testid="Body" href="/sports/nhl/" class="text-module__text__0GDob text-module__medium-grey__yZtlg text-module__regular__qJJtA text-module__small__sph8i body-module__base__o--Cl body-module__small_body__gOmDf nav-dropdown-module__subsection-link__T9-bB">NHL</a></li><li><a data-testid="Body" href="/sports/soccer/" class="text-module__text__0GDob text-module__medium-grey__yZtlg text-module__regular__qJJtA text-module__small__sph8i body-module__base__o--Cl body-module__small_body__gOmDf nav-dropdown-module__subsection-link__T9-bB">Soccer</a></li><li><a data-testid="Body" href="/sports/tennis/" class="text-module__text__0GDob text-module__medium-grey__yZtlg text-module__regular__qJJtA text-module__small__sph8i body-module__base__o--Cl body-module__small_body__gOmDf nav-dropdown-module__subsection-link__T9-bB">Tennis</a></li></ul></section><section 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US-Venezuela export deal, set to retire, sources say</h1><div data-testid="InfoContent" class="info-content-module__info__FR-5y default-article-header-module__info-content__EOcyE"><div data-testid="AuthorName" class="text-module__text__0GDob text-module__dark-grey__UFC18 text-module__medium__2Rl30 text-module__tag_label__4kwMu"><span data-testid="Text" class="text-module__text__0GDob text-module__dark-grey__UFC18 text-module__regular__qJJtA text-module__tag_label__4kwMu">By </span><a data-testid="AuthorNameLink" referrerPolicy="no-referrer-when-downgrade" href="/authors/shariq-khan/" rel="author" class="text-module__text__0GDob text-module__dark-grey__UFC18 text-module__medium__2Rl30 text-module__tag_label__4kwMu link-module__link__INqxZ link-module__underline_on_hover__YTwYC author-name-module__author__09Ri8">Shariq Khan</a></div><time data-testid="DateLine" dateTime="2026-03-31T22:03:32.245Z" class="text-module__text__0GDob text-module__dark-grey__UFC18 text-module__regular__qJJtA 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aria-selected="true" tabindex="0" class="text-module__text__0GDob text-module__dark-grey__UFC18 text-module__medium__2Rl30 text-module__small__sph8i body-module__base__o--Cl body-module__small_body__gOmDf context-widget-module__tab__lRw-D context-widget-module__selected__Et295">Summary</li><li data-testid="companies-tab" role="tab" aria-selected="false" tabindex="-1" class="text-module__text__0GDob text-module__medium-grey__yZtlg text-module__medium__2Rl30 text-module__small__sph8i body-module__base__o--Cl body-module__small_body__gOmDf context-widget-module__tab__lRw-D">Companies</li></ul></div><div data-testid="ContextWidgetContent" class="context-widget-module__content__lI1uo"><ul data-testid="Summary" class="summary-module__summary__QjADA"><li data-testid="Body" class="text-module__text__0GDob text-module__dark-grey__UFC18 text-module__regular__qJJtA text-module__small__sph8i body-module__base__o--Cl body-module__small_body__gOmDf summary-module__point__UgXPz">Vitol's head of Americas refined products John Addison to retire Tuesday, sources say</li><li data-testid="Body" class="text-module__text__0GDob text-module__dark-grey__UFC18 text-module__regular__qJJtA text-module__small__sph8i body-module__base__o--Cl body-module__small_body__gOmDf summary-module__point__UgXPz">Addison's deputy Jean-Marc Monrad will take over as Americas products chief, source says</li><li data-testid="Body" class="text-module__text__0GDob text-module__dark-grey__UFC18 text-module__regular__qJJtA text-module__small__sph8i body-module__base__o--Cl body-module__small_body__gOmDf summary-module__point__UgXPz">Addison to focus on politics and energy policy, source says</li></ul></div></div><div data-testid="paragraph-0" class="text-module__text__0GDob text-module__dark-grey__UFC18 text-module__regular__qJJtA text-module__small__sph8i body-module__full_width__kCIGb body-module__small_body__gOmDf article-body-module__paragraph__Ts-yF">NEW YORK, March 31 (Reuters) - John Addison, Vitol's top U.S. gasoline trader who helped the firm win a deal for the <a data-testid="Link" referrerPolicy="no-referrer-when-downgrade" href="https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/trafigura-load-first-ship-venezuelan-oil-exports-us-next-week-ceo-says-2026-01-09/" class="text-module__text__0GDob text-module__inherit-color__PhuPF text-module__inherit-font__1P1hv text-module__inherit-size__EyiQW link-module__link__INqxZ link-module__underline_default__-okuC">first exports of Venezuelan oil</a> following leader Nicolas Maduro's capture by U.S. forces, plans to retire from the world's largest commodities trading house, four sources told Reuters on Tuesday.</div><div data-testid="paragraph-1" class="text-module__text__0GDob text-module__dark-grey__UFC18 text-module__regular__qJJtA text-module__small__sph8i body-module__full_width__kCIGb body-module__small_body__gOmDf article-body-module__paragraph__Ts-yF">Addison, 47, is well-known among rivals and colleagues for his success as a gasoline trader, and has been a member of Vitol's U.S. executive team since 2012. An internal Vitol memo about his retirement, seen by Reuters, described him as "one of the most successful traders in the history of the firm."</div><p data-testid="promo-box" class="text-module__text__0GDob text-module__dark-grey__UFC18 text-module__regular__qJJtA text-module__small__sph8i body-module__base__o--Cl body-module__small_body__gOmDf article-body-module__promo-box__hVl8h"> <!-- -->Sign up<!-- --> <!-- --> <a data-testid="Link" referrerPolicy="no-referrer-when-downgrade" href="undefined?location=article-paragraph&redirectUrl=%2Fbusiness%2Fenergy%2Fvitol-trader-addison-architect-us-venezuela-export-deal-set-retire-sources-say-2026-03-31%2F" class="text-module__text__0GDob text-module__inherit-color__PhuPF text-module__inherit-font__1P1hv text-module__inherit-size__EyiQW link-module__link__INqxZ link-module__underline_default__-okuC">here.</a></p><div data-testid="element" class="article-body-module__element__5eCce"></div><div data-testid="paragraph-2" class="text-module__text__0GDob text-module__dark-grey__UFC18 text-module__regular__qJJtA text-module__small__sph8i body-module__full_width__kCIGb body-module__small_body__gOmDf article-body-module__paragraph__Ts-yF">He is expected to be replaced by his deputy on the refined products desk, gasoline trader Jean-Marc Monrad, one of the sources said.</div><div data-testid="paragraph-3" class="text-module__text__0GDob text-module__dark-grey__UFC18 text-module__regular__qJJtA text-module__small__sph8i body-module__full_width__kCIGb body-module__small_body__gOmDf article-body-module__paragraph__Ts-yF">The sources requested anonymity to discuss confidential details.</div><div data-testid="paragraph-4" class="text-module__text__0GDob text-module__dark-grey__UFC18 text-module__regular__qJJtA text-module__small__sph8i body-module__full_width__kCIGb body-module__small_body__gOmDf article-body-module__paragraph__Ts-yF">Addison declined to comment, and Vitol said it would not comment on personnel issues. Monrad did not immediately respond to a message on LinkedIn.</div><div data-testid="paragraph-5" class="text-module__text__0GDob text-module__dark-grey__UFC18 text-module__regular__qJJtA text-module__small__sph8i body-module__full_width__kCIGb body-module__small_body__gOmDf article-body-module__paragraph__Ts-yF">In January, Addison led negotiations with the <a data-testid="Link" referrerPolicy="no-referrer-when-downgrade" href="https://www.reuters.com/world/us/" class="text-module__text__0GDob text-module__inherit-color__PhuPF text-module__inherit-font__1P1hv text-module__inherit-size__EyiQW link-module__link__INqxZ link-module__underline_default__-okuC">U.S.</a> and Venezuelan governments in efforts to clear a multibillion-barrel backlog of crude oil accumulated by <a data-testid="Link" referrerPolicy="no-referrer-when-downgrade" href="https://www.reuters.com/world/venezuela/" class="text-module__text__0GDob text-module__inherit-color__PhuPF text-module__inherit-font__1P1hv text-module__inherit-size__EyiQW link-module__link__INqxZ link-module__underline_default__-okuC">Venezuela's</a> state-backed oil company PDVSA during a U.S. naval blockade of the country.</div><div data-testid="element" class="article-body-module__element__5eCce"></div><div data-testid="paragraph-6" class="text-module__text__0GDob text-module__dark-grey__UFC18 text-module__regular__qJJtA text-module__small__sph8i body-module__full_width__kCIGb body-module__small_body__gOmDf article-body-module__paragraph__Ts-yF">Vitol and rival Trafigura were the first companies tapped by the U.S. government to market the oil. The U.S. government has since <a data-testid="Link" referrerPolicy="no-referrer-when-downgrade" href="https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/us-waives-sanctions-deals-involving-venezuelas-pdvsa-2026-03-18/" class="text-module__text__0GDob text-module__inherit-color__PhuPF text-module__inherit-font__1P1hv text-module__inherit-size__EyiQW link-module__link__INqxZ link-module__underline_default__-okuC">issued a general license</a> for any interested companies to export Venezuelan oil.</div><div data-testid="paragraph-7" class="text-module__text__0GDob text-module__dark-grey__UFC18 text-module__regular__qJJtA text-module__small__sph8i body-module__full_width__kCIGb body-module__small_body__gOmDf article-body-module__paragraph__Ts-yF">Vitol has sold over $1 billion of Venezuelan oil to refiners in the U.S., <a data-testid="Link" referrerPolicy="no-referrer-when-downgrade" href="https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/" class="text-module__text__0GDob text-module__inherit-color__PhuPF text-module__inherit-font__1P1hv text-module__inherit-size__EyiQW link-module__link__INqxZ link-module__underline_default__-okuC">Europe</a> and Asia, and has billions of dollars more Venezuelan oil to sell, the sources said.</div><div data-testid="paragraph-8" class="text-module__text__0GDob text-module__dark-grey__UFC18 text-module__regular__qJJtA text-module__small__sph8i body-module__full_width__kCIGb body-module__small_body__gOmDf article-body-module__paragraph__Ts-yF">Vitol's <a data-testid="Link" referrerPolicy="no-referrer-when-downgrade" href="https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/vitol-2025-turnover-rises-343-billion-2026-03-24/" class="text-module__text__0GDob text-module__inherit-color__PhuPF text-module__inherit-font__1P1hv text-module__inherit-size__EyiQW link-module__link__INqxZ link-module__underline_default__-okuC">trading turnover</a> - a measure of volume - last year came to $343 billion, up 3.6% from 2024.</div><div data-testid="element" class="article-body-module__element__5eCce"></div><h2 data-testid="Heading" class="text-module__text__0GDob text-module__dark-grey__UFC18 text-module__medium__2Rl30 text-module__heading_6__u1KdJ heading-module__base__p-zaD heading-module__heading_6__-zrtS article-body-module__heading__KTJKz">JOINED VITOL IN 2009</h2><div data-testid="paragraph-9" class="text-module__text__0GDob text-module__dark-grey__UFC18 text-module__regular__qJJtA text-module__small__sph8i body-module__full_width__kCIGb body-module__small_body__gOmDf article-body-module__paragraph__Ts-yF">The Hoover, Alabama, native started his career with Enron in June 2001, just before the energy firm's infamous collapse. He joined European major Shell in 2002 and moved to Glencore in 2005.</div><div data-testid="paragraph-10" class="text-module__text__0GDob text-module__dark-grey__UFC18 text-module__regular__qJJtA text-module__small__sph8i body-module__full_width__kCIGb body-module__small_body__gOmDf article-body-module__paragraph__Ts-yF">Addison moved to Vitol in 2009, where he headed refined products trading in the Americas, and has been the most senior gasoline trader in the U.S. since joining the executive team. The firm has earned hundreds of millions of dollars in profits on gasoline during his leadership, three sources said.</div><div data-testid="element" class="article-body-module__element__5eCce"></div><div data-testid="paragraph-11" class="text-module__text__0GDob text-module__dark-grey__UFC18 text-module__regular__qJJtA text-module__small__sph8i body-module__full_width__kCIGb body-module__small_body__gOmDf article-body-module__paragraph__Ts-yF">His trading career involved oversight of both physical gasoline markets in the U.S., the world's largest fuel consumer, along with financial instruments for crude oil, diesel and other parts of the energy market, a colleague and two rival traders said.</div><div data-testid="paragraph-12" class="text-module__text__0GDob text-module__dark-grey__UFC18 text-module__regular__qJJtA text-module__small__sph8i body-module__full_width__kCIGb body-module__small_body__gOmDf article-body-module__paragraph__Ts-yF">He has traded for Vitol through several waves of market disruption ranging from major hurricanes, freeze events, key pipeline outages, the COVID-19 pandemic, and a number of military events, the internal memo about his retirement noted.</div><div data-testid="element" class="article-body-module__element__5eCce"></div><h2 data-testid="Heading" class="text-module__text__0GDob text-module__dark-grey__UFC18 text-module__medium__2Rl30 text-module__heading_6__u1KdJ heading-module__base__p-zaD heading-module__heading_6__-zrtS article-body-module__heading__KTJKz">PLANS TO FOCUS ON ENERGY POLICY</h2><div data-testid="paragraph-13" class="text-module__text__0GDob text-module__dark-grey__UFC18 text-module__regular__qJJtA text-module__small__sph8i body-module__full_width__kCIGb body-module__small_body__gOmDf article-body-module__paragraph__Ts-yF">Addison plans to focus on politics and energy policy following his retirement, one source close to him said.</div><div data-testid="paragraph-14" class="text-module__text__0GDob text-module__dark-grey__UFC18 text-module__regular__qJJtA text-module__small__sph8i body-module__full_width__kCIGb body-module__small_body__gOmDf article-body-module__paragraph__Ts-yF">Addison has been a backer of U.S. Vice President JD Vance since Vance ran for the U.S. Senate, and he also contributed to President Donald Trump's 2024 re-election campaign.</div><div data-testid="paragraph-15" class="text-module__text__0GDob text-module__dark-grey__UFC18 text-module__regular__qJJtA text-module__small__sph8i body-module__full_width__kCIGb body-module__small_body__gOmDf article-body-module__paragraph__Ts-yF">Addison volunteers with his alma mater Vanderbilt University, to which he and his wife Shannon donated $30 million last year.</div><div class="article-body-module__element__5eCce"><p data-testid="SignOff" class="text-module__text__0GDob text-module__dark-grey__UFC18 text-module__regular__qJJtA text-module__extra_small__8Buss body-module__full_width__kCIGb 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disagrees</span></a></div><div class=" image-container no-caption story-card-module__area-media__N2Hg6" data-testid="MediaImage"><a data-testid="MediaImageLink" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1" referrerPolicy="no-referrer-when-downgrade" href="/business/energy/trump-says-us-has-plenty-jet-fuel-europe-market-disagrees-2026-04-02/" class="text-module__text__0GDob text-module__dark-grey__UFC18 text-module__medium__2Rl30 text-module__default__R2Ckt link-module__link__INqxZ link-module__underline_default__-okuC image-module__container__dqGwP story-card-module__image-link__4wq06"><div data-testid="Image" class="image story-card-module__image__NNKq2"><div class="styles-module__image-container__E0mCm styles-module__cover__SgyOM styles-module__center_center__bzABO styles-module__apply-ratio__u0jXJ styles-module__transition__joucY" style="--aspect-ratio:1.5"></div><noscript><img src="https://www.reuters.com/resizer/v2/KFU5MI4O5ZN6BFOYCMD7BIZS7A.jpg?auth=3d1a3b81a8f80a55c0bd3b3b2ed143d98b06d69dd5dcf9a43612f7ca76ffe5fe&width=1200&quality=80" alt="U.S. President Trump signs an executive order in the Oval Office of the White House" /></noscript></div></a></div></div></li><li class="read-next-v2-module__item__F8aJ9"><div class="story-card-module__tpl-common__G5wYS story-card-module__tpl-full-media-on-top__ps3O2 story-card-module__transition-no-date-for-extra-wide-desktop__20m3z story-card-module__transition-no-date-for-desktop__b65V6 story-card-module__transition-no-date-for-tablet__2zqMx story-card-module__transition-media-on-right-for-mobile__ygju8 read-next-v2-module__story-card__Bus22" data-are-authors="true" data-has-multiple-authors="true" data-dir="ltr" data-testid="StoryCard" tabindex="-1"><time data-testid="DateLineText" dateTime="2026-04-01T16:00:44.147Z" class="text-module__text__0GDob text-module__medium-grey__yZtlg text-module__light__ZYtNU 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href="/business/energy/shell-advanced-talks-with-venezuela-more-gas-areas-sources-say-2026-04-01/" class="text-module__text__0GDob text-module__dark-grey__UFC18 text-module__inherit-font__1P1hv text-module__inherit-size__EyiQW link-module__link__INqxZ link-module__underline_on_hover__YTwYC"><span data-testid="TitleHeading" class="text-module__text__0GDob text-module__inherit-color__PhuPF text-module__medium__2Rl30 text-module__heading_6__u1KdJ heading-module__base__p-zaD heading-module__heading_6__-zrtS title-module__heading__ZrRzk">Exclusive: Shell in advanced talks with Venezuela for more gas areas</span></a></div><div class=" image-container no-caption story-card-module__area-media__N2Hg6" data-testid="MediaImage"><a data-testid="MediaImageLink" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1" referrerPolicy="no-referrer-when-downgrade" href="/business/energy/shell-advanced-talks-with-venezuela-more-gas-areas-sources-say-2026-04-01/" class="text-module__text__0GDob text-module__dark-grey__UFC18 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class="text-module__text__0GDob text-module__dark-grey__UFC18 text-module__inherit-font__1P1hv text-module__inherit-size__EyiQW link-module__link__INqxZ link-module__underline_on_hover__YTwYC link-module__inherit-line-height__1vd2c media-story-card-module__heading__xgKcP">Currencies tread water as investors brace for Trump's Iran address</a></h3><span data-testid="Label" class="text-module__text__0GDob text-module__inherit-color__PhuPF text-module__light__ZYtNU text-module__default__R2Ckt label-module__label__Sv2H2 kicker_hero media-story-card-module__section__PyVDc"><a data-testid="Link" referrerPolicy="no-referrer-when-downgrade" href="/world/" class="text-module__text__0GDob text-module__inherit-color__PhuPF text-module__inherit-font__1P1hv text-module__inherit-size__EyiQW link-module__link__INqxZ link-module__underline_on_hover__YTwYC"><span style="border:0;clip:rect(0 0 0 0);clip-path:inset(50%);height:1px;margin:-1px;overflow:hidden;padding:0;position:absolute;width:1px;white-space:nowrap">category</span></a> · <time dateTime="2026-04-02T00:45:57.521Z">April 2, 2026 · 12:45 AM UTC</time> · ago</span><p data-testid="Body" class="text-module__text__0GDob text-module__dark-grey__UFC18 text-module__regular__qJJtA text-module__large__03GSP body-module__base__o--Cl body-module__large_body__NQgnj media-story-card-module__description__DzXN2">Major currencies held steady in thin trading on Thursday, as investors awaited a high-stakes televised address from U.S. President Donald Trump that is expected to shed light on a possible ceasefire in the Gulf war.</p></div></div></li><li class="story-collection-module__list-item__nvJUz story-collection-module__story__A3dpi story-collection-module__default__k3Xt2 story-collection-module__with-spacing__OhP-U" id="Y6C4NP5AB5KT5BDYKLCBMY5IVU" data-testid="one_hero_and_two_columns"><div data-testid="MediaStoryCard" class="media-story-card-module__hub__y3KsD story-card"><div class="media-story-card-module__placement-container__1ZSB1"><a href="https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/oil-prices-drop-hopes-us-pullback-iran-war-2026-04-02/" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1" referrerPolicy="no-referrer-when-downgrade"><div class="media-story-card-module__image-container__fJn9a"><div data-testid="Image" class="image"><div class="styles-module__image-container__E0mCm styles-module__cover__SgyOM styles-module__center_center__bzABO styles-module__apply-ratio__u0jXJ styles-module__transition__joucY" style="--aspect-ratio:1.5"></div><noscript><img src="https://www.reuters.com/resizer/v2/4AB747E7ANJRDIQP52YHWCANWM.jpg?auth=a5d0f023af3a43a78b018e93124d92cdb334259e330662492c394a636e39d6f3&width=960&quality=80" width="2283" height="1518" alt="A cargo ship in the Gulf, near the Strait of Hormuz" /></noscript></div></div></a></div><div class="media-story-card-module__body__nZjo1"><span data-testid="Label" class="text-module__text__0GDob text-module__dark-grey__UFC18 text-module__light__ZYtNU text-module__extra_small__8Buss label-module__label__Sv2H2 label-module__kicker__jiI-y media-story-card-module__section__PyVDc"><a data-testid="Link" referrerPolicy="no-referrer-when-downgrade" href="/business/energy/" class="text-module__text__0GDob text-module__inherit-color__PhuPF text-module__inherit-font__1P1hv text-module__inherit-size__EyiQW link-module__link__INqxZ link-module__underline_on_hover__YTwYC">Energy<span style="border:0;clip:rect(0 0 0 0);clip-path:inset(50%);height:1px;margin:-1px;overflow:hidden;padding:0;position:absolute;width:1px;white-space:nowrap">category</span></a></span><a data-testid="Heading" href="https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/oil-prices-drop-hopes-us-pullback-iran-war-2026-04-02/" class="text-module__text__0GDob text-module__dark-grey__UFC18 text-module__medium__2Rl30 text-module__heading_6__u1KdJ heading-module__base__p-zaD heading-module__heading_6__-zrtS media-story-card-module__headline__ZWaRz">Oil prices drop on hopes of US pullback from Iran war</a><div class="media-story-card-module__date-line__37fk5"><time data-testid="Label" dateTime="2026-04-02T00:29:03.064Z" class="text-module__text__0GDob text-module__inherit-color__PhuPF text-module__regular__qJJtA text-module__extra_small__8Buss label-module__label__Sv2H2 label-module__small__0kHqa date">12:29 AM UTC</time></div></div></div></li><li class="story-collection-module__list-item__nvJUz story-collection-module__story__A3dpi story-collection-module__default__k3Xt2 story-collection-module__with-spacing__OhP-U" id="IZBXETB67JLZRJAFW2TLSFBPMA" data-testid="one_hero_and_two_columns"><div data-testid="MediaStoryCard" class="media-story-card-module__hub__y3KsD story-card"><div class="media-story-card-module__placement-container__1ZSB1"><a href="https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/trump-says-us-has-plenty-jet-fuel-europe-market-disagrees-2026-04-02/" 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text-module__inherit-font__1P1hv text-module__inherit-size__EyiQW link-module__link__INqxZ link-module__underline_on_hover__YTwYC"><span style="border:0;clip:rect(0 0 0 0);clip-path:inset(50%);height:1px;margin:-1px;overflow:hidden;padding:0;position:absolute;width:1px;white-space:nowrap">category</span></a></span><a data-testid="Heading" href="https://www.reuters.com/world/china/global-markets-wrapup-1-2026-04-02/" class="text-module__text__0GDob text-module__dark-grey__UFC18 text-module__medium__2Rl30 text-module__heading_6__u1KdJ heading-module__base__p-zaD heading-module__heading_6__-zrtS media-story-card-module__headline__ZWaRz">Stocks, currencies on tenterhooks ahead of Trump address on Iran war</a><div class="media-story-card-module__date-line__37fk5"><time data-testid="Label" dateTime="2026-04-02T00:18:25.541Z" class="text-module__text__0GDob text-module__inherit-color__PhuPF text-module__regular__qJJtA text-module__extra_small__8Buss label-module__label__Sv2H2 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text-module__medium__2Rl30 text-module__default__R2Ckt link-module__link__INqxZ link-module__underline_on_hover__YTwYC link-group-module__link__BcHeN"><span data-testid="LinkGroupItem" class="text-module__text__0GDob text-module__dark-grey__UFC18 text-module__medium__2Rl30 text-module__heading_6__u1KdJ">Podcasts</span></a></li></ul></section></div><section data-testid="LinkGroup" class="site-footer-module__link-group__Hxt4R site-footer-module__hidden-mobile__5cjU9"><h3 data-testid="Heading" class="text-module__text__0GDob text-module__dark-grey__UFC18 text-module__light__ZYtNU text-module__heading_6__u1KdJ heading-module__base__p-zaD heading-module__heading_6_light__klgho link-group-module__label__mDGn2">Latest</h3><ul class="link-group-module__list__yrOzI link-group-module__vertical__vGvtx"><li class="link-group-module__item__Za3t6"><a data-testid="Link" ui_element_category="Latest" target="_self" referrerPolicy="no-referrer-when-downgrade" href="/" class="text-module__text__0GDob text-module__dark-grey__UFC18 text-module__medium__2Rl30 text-module__default__R2Ckt link-module__link__INqxZ link-module__underline_on_hover__YTwYC link-group-module__link__BcHeN"><span data-testid="LinkGroupItem" class="text-module__text__0GDob text-module__dark-grey__UFC18 text-module__medium__2Rl30 text-module__heading_6__u1KdJ">Home</span></a></li><li class="link-group-module__item__Za3t6"><a data-testid="Link" ui_element_category="Latest" target="_self" referrerPolicy="no-referrer-when-downgrade" href="/sitemap/authors/" class="text-module__text__0GDob text-module__dark-grey__UFC18 text-module__medium__2Rl30 text-module__default__R2Ckt link-module__link__INqxZ link-module__underline_on_hover__YTwYC link-group-module__link__BcHeN"><span data-testid="LinkGroupItem" class="text-module__text__0GDob text-module__dark-grey__UFC18 text-module__medium__2Rl30 text-module__heading_6__u1KdJ">Authors</span></a></li><li class="link-group-module__item__Za3t6"><a data-testid="Link" ui_element_category="Latest" target="_self" referrerPolicy="no-referrer-when-downgrade" href="/sitemap/topics/" class="text-module__text__0GDob text-module__dark-grey__UFC18 text-module__medium__2Rl30 text-module__default__R2Ckt link-module__link__INqxZ link-module__underline_on_hover__YTwYC link-group-module__link__BcHeN"><span data-testid="LinkGroupItem" class="text-module__text__0GDob text-module__dark-grey__UFC18 text-module__medium__2Rl30 text-module__heading_6__u1KdJ">Topic Sitemap</span></a></li><li class="link-group-module__item__Za3t6"><a data-testid="Link" ui_element_category="Latest" target="_self" referrerPolicy="no-referrer-when-downgrade" href="/archive/" class="text-module__text__0GDob text-module__dark-grey__UFC18 text-module__medium__2Rl30 text-module__default__R2Ckt link-module__link__INqxZ link-module__underline_on_hover__YTwYC link-group-module__link__BcHeN"><span data-testid="LinkGroupItem" class="text-module__text__0GDob text-module__dark-grey__UFC18 text-module__medium__2Rl30 text-module__heading_6__u1KdJ">Archive</span></a></li><li class="link-group-module__item__Za3t6"><a data-testid="Link" ui_element_category="Latest" target="_self" referrerPolicy="no-referrer-when-downgrade" href="/sitemap/" class="text-module__text__0GDob text-module__dark-grey__UFC18 text-module__medium__2Rl30 text-module__default__R2Ckt link-module__link__INqxZ link-module__underline_on_hover__YTwYC link-group-module__link__BcHeN"><span data-testid="LinkGroupItem" class="text-module__text__0GDob text-module__dark-grey__UFC18 text-module__medium__2Rl30 text-module__heading_6__u1KdJ">Article Sitemap</span></a></li></ul></section><section data-testid="LinkGroup" class="site-footer-module__link-group__Hxt4R"><h3 data-testid="Heading" class="text-module__text__0GDob text-module__dark-grey__UFC18 text-module__light__ZYtNU text-module__heading_6__u1KdJ heading-module__base__p-zaD heading-module__heading_6_light__klgho link-group-module__label__mDGn2">Browse</h3><ul class="link-group-module__list__yrOzI link-group-module__vertical__vGvtx"><li class="link-group-module__item__Za3t6"><a data-testid="Link" ui_element_category="Browse" target="_self" referrerPolicy="no-referrer-when-downgrade" href="/world/" class="text-module__text__0GDob text-module__dark-grey__UFC18 text-module__medium__2Rl30 text-module__default__R2Ckt link-module__link__INqxZ link-module__underline_on_hover__YTwYC link-group-module__link__BcHeN"><span data-testid="LinkGroupItem" class="text-module__text__0GDob text-module__dark-grey__UFC18 text-module__medium__2Rl30 text-module__heading_6__u1KdJ">World</span></a></li><li class="link-group-module__item__Za3t6"><a data-testid="Link" ui_element_category="Browse" target="_self" referrerPolicy="no-referrer-when-downgrade" href="/business/" class="text-module__text__0GDob text-module__dark-grey__UFC18 text-module__medium__2Rl30 text-module__default__R2Ckt link-module__link__INqxZ link-module__underline_on_hover__YTwYC link-group-module__link__BcHeN"><span data-testid="LinkGroupItem" class="text-module__text__0GDob text-module__dark-grey__UFC18 text-module__medium__2Rl30 text-module__heading_6__u1KdJ">Business</span></a></li><li class="link-group-module__item__Za3t6"><a data-testid="Link" ui_element_category="Browse" target="_self" referrerPolicy="no-referrer-when-downgrade" href="/markets/" class="text-module__text__0GDob text-module__dark-grey__UFC18 text-module__medium__2Rl30 text-module__default__R2Ckt link-module__link__INqxZ link-module__underline_on_hover__YTwYC link-group-module__link__BcHeN"><span data-testid="LinkGroupItem" class="text-module__text__0GDob text-module__dark-grey__UFC18 text-module__medium__2Rl30 text-module__heading_6__u1KdJ">Markets</span></a></li><li class="link-group-module__item__Za3t6"><a data-testid="Link" ui_element_category="Browse" target="_self" referrerPolicy="no-referrer-when-downgrade" href="/sustainability/" class="text-module__text__0GDob text-module__dark-grey__UFC18 text-module__medium__2Rl30 text-module__default__R2Ckt link-module__link__INqxZ link-module__underline_on_hover__YTwYC link-group-module__link__BcHeN"><span data-testid="LinkGroupItem" class="text-module__text__0GDob text-module__dark-grey__UFC18 text-module__medium__2Rl30 text-module__heading_6__u1KdJ">Sustainability</span></a></li><li class="link-group-module__item__Za3t6"><a data-testid="Link" ui_element_category="Browse" target="_self" referrerPolicy="no-referrer-when-downgrade" href="/legal/" class="text-module__text__0GDob text-module__dark-grey__UFC18 text-module__medium__2Rl30 text-module__default__R2Ckt link-module__link__INqxZ link-module__underline_on_hover__YTwYC link-group-module__link__BcHeN"><span data-testid="LinkGroupItem" class="text-module__text__0GDob text-module__dark-grey__UFC18 text-module__medium__2Rl30 text-module__heading_6__u1KdJ">Legal</span></a></li><li class="link-group-module__item__Za3t6"><a data-testid="Link" ui_element_category="Browse" target="_self" referrerPolicy="no-referrer-when-downgrade" href="/breakingviews/" class="text-module__text__0GDob text-module__dark-grey__UFC18 text-module__medium__2Rl30 text-module__default__R2Ckt link-module__link__INqxZ link-module__underline_on_hover__YTwYC link-group-module__link__BcHeN"><span data-testid="LinkGroupItem" class="text-module__text__0GDob text-module__dark-grey__UFC18 text-module__medium__2Rl30 text-module__heading_6__u1KdJ">Breakingviews</span></a></li><li class="link-group-module__item__Za3t6"><a data-testid="Link" ui_element_category="Browse" target="_self" referrerPolicy="no-referrer-when-downgrade" href="/technology/" class="text-module__text__0GDob text-module__dark-grey__UFC18 text-module__medium__2Rl30 text-module__default__R2Ckt link-module__link__INqxZ link-module__underline_on_hover__YTwYC link-group-module__link__BcHeN"><span data-testid="LinkGroupItem" class="text-module__text__0GDob text-module__dark-grey__UFC18 text-module__medium__2Rl30 text-module__heading_6__u1KdJ">Technology</span></a></li><li class="link-group-module__item__Za3t6"><a data-testid="Link" ui_element_category="Browse" target="_self" referrerPolicy="no-referrer-when-downgrade" href="/investigations/" class="text-module__text__0GDob text-module__dark-grey__UFC18 text-module__medium__2Rl30 text-module__default__R2Ckt link-module__link__INqxZ link-module__underline_on_hover__YTwYC link-group-module__link__BcHeN"><span data-testid="LinkGroupItem" class="text-module__text__0GDob text-module__dark-grey__UFC18 text-module__medium__2Rl30 text-module__heading_6__u1KdJ">Investigations</span></a></li><li class="link-group-module__item__Za3t6"><a data-testid="Link" ui_element_category="Browse" target="_self" referrerPolicy="no-referrer-when-downgrade" href="/sports/" class="text-module__text__0GDob text-module__dark-grey__UFC18 text-module__medium__2Rl30 text-module__default__R2Ckt link-module__link__INqxZ link-module__underline_on_hover__YTwYC link-group-module__link__BcHeN"><span data-testid="LinkGroupItem" class="text-module__text__0GDob text-module__dark-grey__UFC18 text-module__medium__2Rl30 text-module__heading_6__u1KdJ">Sports</span></a></li><li class="link-group-module__item__Za3t6"><a data-testid="Link" ui_element_category="Browse" target="_self" referrerPolicy="no-referrer-when-downgrade" href="/science/" class="text-module__text__0GDob text-module__dark-grey__UFC18 text-module__medium__2Rl30 text-module__default__R2Ckt link-module__link__INqxZ link-module__underline_on_hover__YTwYC link-group-module__link__BcHeN"><span data-testid="LinkGroupItem" class="text-module__text__0GDob text-module__dark-grey__UFC18 text-module__medium__2Rl30 text-module__heading_6__u1KdJ">Science</span></a></li><li class="link-group-module__item__Za3t6"><a data-testid="Link" ui_element_category="Browse" target="_self" referrerPolicy="no-referrer-when-downgrade" href="/lifestyle/" class="text-module__text__0GDob text-module__dark-grey__UFC18 text-module__medium__2Rl30 text-module__default__R2Ckt link-module__link__INqxZ link-module__underline_on_hover__YTwYC link-group-module__link__BcHeN"><span data-testid="LinkGroupItem" class="text-module__text__0GDob text-module__dark-grey__UFC18 text-module__medium__2Rl30 text-module__heading_6__u1KdJ">Lifestyle</span></a></li></ul></section><section data-testid="LinkGroup" class="site-footer-module__link-group__Hxt4R site-footer-module__hidden-mobile__5cjU9"><h3 data-testid="Heading" class="text-module__text__0GDob text-module__dark-grey__UFC18 text-module__light__ZYtNU text-module__heading_6__u1KdJ heading-module__base__p-zaD heading-module__heading_6_light__klgho link-group-module__label__mDGn2">Media</h3><ul class="link-group-module__list__yrOzI link-group-module__vertical__vGvtx"><li class="link-group-module__item__Za3t6"><div data-testid="Media" class="link-group-module__symbol__vLvQd media-module__symbol__O-kyE 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An internal Vitol memo about his retirement, seen by Reuters, described him as \"one of the most successful traders in the history of the firm.\"","type":"paragraph"},{"content":"He is expected to be replaced by his deputy on the refined products desk, gasoline trader Jean-Marc Monrad, one of the sources said.","type":"paragraph"},{"content":"The sources requested anonymity to discuss confidential details.","type":"paragraph"},{"content":"Addison declined to comment, and Vitol said it would not comment on personnel issues. Monrad did not immediately respond to a message on LinkedIn.","type":"paragraph"},{"content":"In January, Addison led negotiations with the <a href=\"https://www.reuters.com/world/us/\">U.S.</a> and Venezuelan governments in efforts to clear a multibillion-barrel backlog of crude oil accumulated by <a href=\"https://www.reuters.com/world/venezuela/\">Venezuela's</a> state-backed oil company PDVSA during a U.S. naval blockade of the country.","type":"paragraph"},{"content":"Vitol and rival Trafigura were the first companies tapped by the U.S. government to market the oil. The U.S. government has since <a href=\"https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/us-waives-sanctions-deals-involving-venezuelas-pdvsa-2026-03-18/\">issued a general license</a> for any interested companies to export Venezuelan oil.","type":"paragraph"},{"content":"Vitol has sold over $1 billion of Venezuelan oil to refiners in the U.S., <a href=\"https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/\">Europe</a> and Asia, and has billions of dollars more Venezuelan oil to sell, the sources said.","type":"paragraph"},{"content":"Vitol's <a href=\"https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/vitol-2025-turnover-rises-343-billion-2026-03-24/\">trading turnover</a> - a measure of volume - last year came to $343 billion, up 3.6% from 2024.","type":"paragraph"},{"level":1,"content":"JOINED VITOL IN 2009","type":"header"},{"content":"The Hoover, Alabama, native started his career with Enron in June 2001, just before the energy firm's infamous collapse. He joined European major Shell in 2002 and moved to Glencore in 2005.","type":"paragraph"},{"content":"Addison moved to Vitol in 2009, where he headed refined products trading in the Americas, and has been the most senior gasoline trader in the U.S. since joining the executive team. The firm has earned hundreds of millions of dollars in profits on gasoline during his leadership, three sources said.","type":"paragraph"},{"content":"His trading career involved oversight of both physical gasoline markets in the U.S., the world's largest fuel consumer, along with financial instruments for crude oil, diesel and other parts of the energy market, a colleague and two rival traders said.","type":"paragraph"},{"content":"He has traded for Vitol through several waves of market disruption ranging from major hurricanes, freeze events, key pipeline outages, the COVID-19 pandemic, and a number of military events, the internal memo about his retirement noted.","type":"paragraph"},{"level":1,"content":"PLANS TO FOCUS ON ENERGY POLICY","type":"header"},{"content":"Addison plans to focus on politics and energy policy following his retirement, one source close to him said.","type":"paragraph"},{"content":"Addison has been a backer of U.S. Vice President JD Vance since Vance ran for the U.S. Senate, and he also contributed to President Donald Trump's 2024 re-election campaign.","type":"paragraph"},{"content":"Addison volunteers with his alma mater Vanderbilt University, to which he and his wife Shannon donated $30 million last year.","type":"paragraph"}],"eleven_labs":{"project_id":"qz0oJUhyokzAniBwe1Zi","html_snippet":"<div id=\"elevenlabs-audionative-widget\" data-height=\"90\" data-width=\"100%\" data-frameborder=\"no\" data-scrolling=\"no\" data-publicuserid=\"4755746b1f90e57c3c83176ebb4062380b8a9a1a2e7bf22c8d2d745486357d64\" data-playerurl=\"https://elevenlabs.io/player/index.html\" data-projectid=\"qz0oJUhyokzAniBwe1Zi\" >Loading the <a href=\"https://elevenlabs.io/text-to-speech\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Elevenlabs Text to Speech</a> AudioNative Player...</div><script src=\"https://elevenlabs.io/player/audioNativeHelper.js\" 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","duration":330.66,"transcript_data":{"transcript":"The war in Iran has knocked the global economy off the path to growth, according to the OECD. And we're talking about the impact of the war in the Middle East. A report from the OECD this Thursday downgraded its global growth forecast from 3.3% to 2.9% in 2026, as soaring energy prices send inflation in the G20 countries up by 1.2 percentage points. In the US, inflation is now forecast to hit 4.2% this year, but the report actually upgraded US growth after the Supreme Court threw out some of President Trump's tariffs. James Knightley is chief international economist at ING. James, the inflation forecasts in this report are pretty steep. How big are you expecting the energy price hit to be? Yeah, I was very surprised by the number that came out with 4.2%. It's well above what we have, and well above what the consensus amongst market economists is as well. Certainly, obviously, we're in a state of flux, a lot of uncertainty, but our assumption is that we will start to see traffic flowing through the Straits of Hormuz by later next month, and then we'll gradually get that dissipating as an issue through the year. So, we're a little bit more... Convince that oil prices will drop back, perhaps a little bit more aggressively in the second half of that year. That may explain the discrepancy. But I think where we would clearly disagree with the OECD is we think we're in a very, very different situation than 2022. Well, we had a supply shock similar to today. But back then, we had a really big demand shock as well. We were coming out of the pandemic. We were seeing employment rise sharply, wage growth hitting 6 percent, pent-up demands, stimulus checks as well. We're in a very, very different situation to then, when inflation soared up to 10 percent. We think, actually, this time around, the higher oil price story may be demand destructive, eroding spending power, reducing the amount of money people have got to spend on discretionary items, and that may actually lower. Inflation for those products. So yeah, certainly, it sets high near-term headline inflation risk, but we would be more in the camp that this is demand destructive and actually leads to lower medium-term inflation pressures. Do you mean, then, that that hit to growth, the demand destruction, will mean that central banks don't need to hike rates? Yeah, I think there's more reason for the Federal Reserve and other central banks to actually look through this supply shock this time around, simply because we don't have the demand impetus to keep the inflation story really burning. So, for us, it is more of the Fed can afford to wait and see. And remember, the Federal Reserve is different from most central banks, and the Fed has two targets. It's got to get inflation down to 2% over time. But it's also got to maximise employment, and the jobs market has just been flatlining for the last 12 months. And if companies were not hiring when things were good, are they going to be inclined to hire when things are more concerning about the geopolitics, the market angst, and, of course, economic uncertainty? I would argue not. So, from that perspective, the inflation, employment optimization, if you like, the Fed has to manage, would argue for no change. The OECD has actually upgraded US growth from a forecast of 1.7% for this year to 2%, citing the Supreme Court's ruling that threw out some tariffs. Is that tariff uncertainty really over? I don't think so, because, yes, the stated tariff rates have dropped, but the realised rates were running well below those tariff-announced rates in any case. There was a problem with collection. There was some fraud. There were people coming to some countries using alternative countries as a third-party route to lower their tariff rates as well. I would argue, actually, this lower tariff rate is a simplified story. Everyone is paying the same. For every country. And that may actually improve the collection rates. So I'm not expecting, actually, any meaningful change in the amount of revenue being raised each month—$20 to $25 billion per month—that U.S. companies are paying the Treasury. So, I'm not as inclined to go down that forecasting route as the OECD are. The report also notes the broader economic risk from falls in financial markets, especially if AI companies disappoint. Is that risk being underestimated? I think that's fair. If we look at the US economy, we always talk about the K-shaping. You can see the letter K wherever you look. So, in the jobs market, some sectors are doing very well; most sectors are actually losing workers. Consumer spending, high-income households, and high-net-worth households are really driving that spending. So, yes, that is something that's really keeping the US economy going, moving very robustly. If we see those high-income, high-wealth households start to pull back because they see their wealth fall, That could be a big theme that could slow U.S. growth. But also look at business CapEx. Business CapEx tied to computing and software is rising 25% year on year. All of the big business capex is shrinking. Now, it was fine when Meta and Alphabet were financing this using internal profits, but they're now going into bond markets and borrowing in sterling and Swiss franc for 100 years. I would imagine if we do see valuations come under pressure, financing conditions are going to become more stretched, and the ability to fund these big projects is going to be more constrained. So yes, I certainly would agree that an AI valuation change, or equity market correction, if you like, would be. Quite a concerning story for the U.S. economy. That was James Knightley of ING. Don't forget, you can watch more videos on Reuters.com."},"published_time":"2026-03-26T13:48:14Z","updated_time":"2026-03-26T13:48:14Z","thumbnail":{"url":"https://ajo.prod.reuters.tv/api/v2/img/69c537dfe4b0c93aa2d91f6b","caption":"This Thursday, the OECD cut global growth forecasts, saying higher oil prices will send inflation skyrocketing, to 4.2% this year in the U.S. James Knightley of ING told Reuters he doesn't agree, because unlike in 2022, higher oil prices will erode spending power and that could actually lower inflation. ","type":"image","resizer_url":"https://ajo.prod.reuters.tv/api/v2/img/69c537dfe4b0c93aa2d91f6b"},"source":{"hls":"https://ajo.prod.reuters.tv/v3/playlist/758067/master.m3u8"},"channels":[{"id":"6ffc0233e09c26943b265ef3abd575b2d872818b","name":"Business","regions":["US"]},{"id":"Global_Energy","name":"Energy","regions":["US"]},{"id":"HPUS","name":"RCOM Homepage US","regions":["US"]},{"id":"Macro_Matters","name":"Macro Matters","regions":["US"]}],"advert_info":{"advert_params":[{"key":"adfriendly","value":true}],"advert_zone":"/4735792/reuters.com"},"meta_data":[{"key":"link","value":"tag:reuters.com,2026:newsml_RW763526032026RP1:4"},{"key":"byline","value":"London, UK"},{"key":"hidden","value":"false"},{"key":"region","value":"Remote"},{"key":"dateline","value":"Reuters, Reuters, MAR 26"},{"key":"lmp-feed","value":"lp"},{"key":"copyright","value":"(c) 2026 Thomson Reuters, unless otherwise identified. Full statement available at https://www.thomsonreuters.com/en/policies/copyright.html"},{"key":"package-mood","value":"Neutral"},{"key":"package-notes","value":"oil prices, inflation, Federal Reserve"},{"key":"package-format","value":"Other"},{"key":"publisher-name","value":"reuters.com"},{"key":"upstream-title","value":"Macro Matters: 'Higher oil prices will destroy demand'"},{"key":"external-asset-id","value":"285_RW763526032026RP1"},{"key":"package-no-social","value":"Yes"},{"key":"package-restrictions","value":"For Reuters platforms only.. For Reuters customers only."},{"key":"upstream-description","value":"This Thursday, the OECD cut global growth forecasts, saying higher oil prices will send inflation skyrocketing, to 4.2% this year in the U.S. James Knightley of ING told Reuters he doesn't agree, because unlike in 2022, higher oil prices will erode spending power and that could actually lower inflation. "},{"key":"upstream-channel-code","value":"vty454"}],"usn":"RW763526032026RP1"},{"id":"RW695824032026RP1","type":"video","subtype":"application/x-mpegURL","external_id":"RW695824032026RP1","title":"Macro Matters: 'Markets may have got ahead of themselves' in predicting rate rises","description":"The spike in oil prices caused by the war in Iran has led financial markets to price in interest rate hikes from the ECB and the Bank of England - at one point on Monday, markets saw as many as four rises from the BoE this year. Economist Chris Hare of HSBC told Reuters markets may have gone too far, and the inflation impact could still be contained. ","duration":336.9,"transcript_data":{"transcript":"The Eurozone's private sector growth is close to stalling as the Iran war takes its toll. This is Macro Matters, and we're talking about the impact of the war in Iran on Europe. PMI data this Tuesday showed input costs have reached their highest in more than three years. Inflation is already rising, and economic growth has taken a hit. Interest rates are also moving higher as lenders price in higher rates from the ECB and the Bank of England. President Trump did spark some hope in the market on Monday that the war could soon be over, But fuel prices are unlikely to fall quickly as infrastructure has been hit. Well, Chris Hare is an economist at HSBC Global Banking and Markets. Chris, we saw the first bits of data today that actually show the impact of the war. What's that told us? Well, it's very early days. With any business survey, you should treat them with a pinch of salt when economic shocks come along. It's hard to know how much the magnitude of the move really matters. But one thing we do know, the composite Eurozone PMI fell by more than expected. And that is a reminder that, for all of the talk about higher inflation we're going to get from the energy shock, there's a headwind to growth. On the inflation side of things, a big increase in input prices yet. But yes, but as of yet, no major pass-through into services output prices. Again, it's early days, but it does point to the growth here. It certainly points to the inflation impact, but still, we're very early in terms of working out exactly how big the pass-through of the shock is going to be. If, and it's a very big 'if,' President Trump is right and the war does end soon, how much can the impact on inflation be contained? Do you think it could just be transitory? It's inevitable; we're going to get some impact on inflation anyway. Petrol pump prices are already up. Before too long, we're going to get higher utility bills. But yes, if you see a scenario where we see a de-escalation in the Middle East conflict, an eventual reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. Energy prices can come back down. Inflation expectations and these dreaded second-round effects creating inflation persistence can ease off. And then you can see a scenario where, yes, we have higher inflation in the near term, but it all comes out in the wash in a year or so's time. And then, ultimately, you don't have to get too concerned about the broader persistent effects. But of course, as you say, it's a very big 'if.' Well, after last week's central bank meetings, that's not really the scenario that the market's been pricing in. They've started pricing in hikes this year from the ECB and the Bank of England. At one point on Monday, markets were looking at four hikes in the UK this year. Have they gone a bit too far? There's a possibility that markets did get a little bit ahead of themselves, particularly over the last three, four, five days or so. Now, one way of thinking of market expectations is that they're pricing in a kind of probability-weighted average of different scenarios. So, you can draw a very sensible central case where, over time, if not in the coming days but weeks and months, you see a de-escalation, And then reopening of energy markets such that you see lower inflation. And that's actually central. Banks don't need to raise interest rates very much or at all. But of course, it doesn't take too much imagination to get to some really much more adverse scenarios where you do see multiple interest rate increases. The prospect of Foray rises from either the ECB or the Bank of England, I think you've got to move a long way to get there. You probably need a really intense intensification in higher energy prices and in those second-round effects. We're still quite far away, I think, from that scenario. Do you think the inflation consequences of energy rises will be more contained than, for example, In 2022 because companies have less room to raise prices and workers less bargaining power to ask for raises, Because we've been through this only a couple of years ago? Yes, I agree. I think the inflation impacts could be more contained in two ways. First, it's worth noting, of course, gas prices have gone up a lot, but the increases are orders of magnitude smaller than we saw in Europe in 2022. So the initial shock is smaller. Second, as Governor of the Bank of England, Andrew Bailey has said, there is probably less pricing power in the economy. In 2022, we still had the reopening effect from the COVID pandemic, a lot of tightness in labour markets, And a lot of issues with supply chains that are waiting to unblock themselves. So, this isn't to say that the inflation effect this time around is to be sniffed at. Far from it. You can easily point to scenarios that point to 4% or so inflation in the near term, and potentially persistently elevated inflation. That's not good news, but we're still, again, quite some way from the double-digit inflation peak that we saw in 2022 and 2023. In the UK, especially, there are already signs the economy isn't too healthy, especially in the jobs market. If the Bank of England does hike into this environment, what would you expect? The unemployment rate's been rising. We're now above 5% in terms of the jobless rate. Admittedly, over the last couple of months, and this is sort of frustrating, some of the jobs indicators have shown some signs of stabilization. Redundancies had come down a little bit. Payrolls employment had risen over the last two months, But very potentially, what we've seen over the last few weeks could put paid to that. So, yes, we're in a looser labour market environment this time around. Unemployment has risen over the last 18 months or so. If you've got a rate hike, if you've got higher cost pressures, a broader economic uncertainty, could you see further rises in unemployment from here? Yes. So, for that reason, the manifold risks facing the UK, I think, are going to make the next few months rather challenging. That was Chris Hare of HSBC. Don't forget, you can watch more videos on Reuters.com."},"published_time":"2026-03-24T14:48:50Z","updated_time":"2026-03-24T14:48:52Z","thumbnail":{"url":"https://ajo.prod.reuters.tv/api/v2/img/69c2a31ce4b0c93aa2d91393","caption":"The spike in oil prices caused by the war in Iran has led financial markets to price in interest rate hikes from the ECB and the Bank of England - at one point on Monday, markets saw as many as four rises from the BoE this year. Economist Chris Hare of HSBC told Reuters markets may have gone too far, and the inflation impact could still be contained. ","type":"image","resizer_url":"https://ajo.prod.reuters.tv/api/v2/img/69c2a31ce4b0c93aa2d91393"},"source":{"hls":"https://ajo.prod.reuters.tv/v3/playlist/757733/master.m3u8"},"channels":[{"id":"6ffc0233e09c26943b265ef3abd575b2d872818b","name":"Business","regions":["US"]},{"id":"Global_Energy","name":"Energy","regions":["US"]},{"id":"HPUS","name":"RCOM Homepage US","regions":["US"]},{"id":"Macro_Matters","name":"Macro Matters","regions":["US"]}],"advert_info":{"advert_params":[{"key":"adfriendly","value":true}],"advert_zone":"/4735792/reuters.com"},"meta_data":[{"key":"link","value":"tag:reuters.com,2026:newsml_RW695824032026RP1:4"},{"key":"byline","value":"London, UK"},{"key":"hidden","value":"false"},{"key":"region","value":"Remote"},{"key":"dateline","value":"Reuters, Reuters, MAR 24"},{"key":"lmp-feed","value":"lp"},{"key":"copyright","value":"(c) 2026 Thomson Reuters, unless otherwise identified. Full statement available at https://www.thomsonreuters.com/en/policies/copyright.html"},{"key":"package-mood","value":"Neutral"},{"key":"package-notes","value":"Iran, inflation, unemployment, ECB, Bank of England"},{"key":"package-format","value":"Other"},{"key":"publisher-name","value":"reuters.com"},{"key":"upstream-title","value":"Macro Matters: 'Markets may have got ahead of themselves' in predicting rate rises"},{"key":"external-asset-id","value":"285_RW695824032026RP1"},{"key":"package-no-social","value":"Yes"},{"key":"package-restrictions","value":"For Reuters platforms only.. For Reuters customers only."},{"key":"upstream-description","value":"The spike in oil prices caused by the war in Iran has led financial markets to price in interest rate hikes from the ECB and the Bank of England - at one point on Monday, markets saw as many as four rises from the BoE this year. Economist Chris Hare of HSBC told Reuters markets may have gone too far, and the inflation impact could still be contained. "},{"key":"upstream-channel-code","value":"vty454"}],"usn":"RW695824032026RP1"},{"id":"RW558519032026RP1","type":"video","subtype":"application/x-mpegURL","external_id":"RW558519032026RP1","title":"Macro Matters: How long can the Fed wait and see?","description":"The Fed kept interest rates unchanged on Wednesday, signalling just one potential cut for the year - even as escalating Middle East tensions cloud the economic outlook. Odeta Kushi from First American told Reuters that policymakers are closely monitoring the conflict’s inflation risks, leaving the door open for rate hikes if pressures resurface.","duration":256.8,"transcript_data":{"transcript":"No cuts and no clarity. But what's the Fed's real play from here? This is Macro Matters, and we're talking about the Fed. For months, the US central bank has been clear. Rate cuts aren't guaranteed. And now, markets are finally listening. Policymakers held rates steady again, pointing to rising Middle East uncertainty. But it was Chair Powell who really set the tone. No cuts without real progress on inflation. So, the fog of war thickening is the path for rates becoming harder to see. Let's ask Odeta Kushi, Deputy Chief Economist at First American. So, Odeta, this meeting felt like a turning point. Would you call it a dovish hold, or is the Fed quietly pivoting towards more hawkish future? Well, the Fed and Chairman Powell were clear that they're facing two-sided risks. There's downside risk on the labor market, which would typically call for lower rates. And then, of course, there's upside risk to inflation, which would typically call for higher rates or at least keeping rates steady. And so, the outcome from the meeting was a \"wait and see\" approach until we get more data to show what's going on with inflation and the labor market. Well, let's talk about the inflation. Powell called the lack of progress on core services ex-housing inflation frustrating. So, if the Fed can't explain why it's stuck, how can they confidently bet on inflation resolving itself, even without Middle East tensions? Well, there are some factors within that CPI that give the Fed some reason to believe that inflation will continue to ease. So, shelter, the shelter component of inflation, we know that that's sort of a lagging indicator of what's happening with real-time rents. And so we're more accurately able to forecast that shelter component of inflation. We know that that's been decelerating, and that could add some downward pressure. We know that from the good sector that the tariff-driven pressure. In the good sector, should begin to ease. We should see that ease in the second half of the year, but of course, that core services is still a question mark, and now, of course, energy prices is the big question mark as well. The updated dots weren't as hawkish as feared, but Pyle did warn not to read too much into them. What gives the Fed confidence that they can still cut once this year? Well, if we see any meaningful deterioration in the labor market right now, the labor market's been cooling but not collapsing. And if we see that labor market continue to slow and that unemployment rate drift higher, that could give the Fed a reason to cut rates, especially if inflation continues to make progress. Powell did joke as well that some colleagues wished that they could skip their quarterly forecast this week, as global events are just too unpredictable. So, when will the Feds start really paying attention to the effects, or will this just all be transitory again? The depth and duration and the outcome of the conflicts in the Middle East are unknown at the moment, but the Fed is monitoring every incoming data report and certainly keeping an eye on energy markets because it could, if sustained, add upward pressure to inflation. Well, reaction saw markets seeing only one rate cut as a coin flip, but could the Fed be forced to shift from an easing bias to a hiking one? I think a hiking scenario would require meaningfully higher inflation and sustained inflation, but certainly, if that becomes the case, a hike would be back on the table. Well, Powell did say, as well, that he'll stay at the Fed until the DOJ investigation wraps up. Does this make a policy error less likely, or does it just add to market confusion, especially with Kevin Warsh waiting in the wings? Well, you know, Powell is just one of many voting members, and so I don't think that it necessarily changes the policy outlook for the Fed. Let's look at the housing market now. Pending home sales unexpectedly rose in February. Buyers jumped on the lower rates and slower price growth. But is that rebound now at risk with the Fed's new tone? I think we're seeing some fragile green shoots in the housing market. We're seeing demand pick up a little bit in that Pending Home Sales number. We're seeing it in the mortgage applications data. And then, of course, we know that affordability has been improving, and inventory has been improving as well, allowing buyers and sellers to come off the sidelines. Certainly, if we see a pickup in mortgage rates, that's a sustained increase in mortgage rates, that would be a headwind to more activity in the housing market. That was Odeta Kushi from First American. Don't forget, you can watch more videos on Reuters.com."},"published_time":"2026-03-19T13:52:19Z","updated_time":"2026-03-19T13:52:20Z","thumbnail":{"url":"https://ajo.prod.reuters.tv/api/v2/img/69bbfeb7e4b0c93aa2d8fd6d","caption":"The Fed kept interest rates unchanged on Wednesday, signalling just one potential cut for the year - even as escalating Middle East tensions cloud the economic outlook. Odeta Kushi from First American told Reuters that policymakers are closely monitoring the conflict’s inflation risks, leaving the door open for rate hikes if pressures resurface.","type":"image","resizer_url":"https://ajo.prod.reuters.tv/api/v2/img/69bbfeb7e4b0c93aa2d8fd6d"},"source":{"hls":"https://ajo.prod.reuters.tv/v3/playlist/755582/master.m3u8"},"channels":[{"id":"HPUS","name":"RCOM Homepage US","regions":["US"]},{"id":"Macro_Matters","name":"Macro Matters","regions":["US"]},{"id":"Markets","name":"Markets","regions":["US"]},{"id":"MarketsNow","name":"Markets Now","regions":["US"]}],"advert_info":{"advert_params":[{"key":"adfriendly","value":true}],"advert_zone":"/4735792/reuters.com"},"meta_data":[{"key":"link","value":"tag:reuters.com,2026:newsml_RW558519032026RP1:4"},{"key":"byline","value":"London, UK"},{"key":"hidden","value":"false"},{"key":"region","value":"Remote"},{"key":"dateline","value":"Reuters, Reuters, MAR 19"},{"key":"lmp-feed","value":"lp"},{"key":"copyright","value":"(c) 2026 Thomson Reuters, unless otherwise identified. Full statement available at https://www.thomsonreuters.com/en/policies/copyright.html"},{"key":"package-mood","value":"Neutral"},{"key":"package-notes","value":"Iran, Inflation, Trump, FOMC, Middle East, Housing, Interest Rates, Jobs Market, Jerome Powell, Kevin Warsh, Fed"},{"key":"package-format","value":"Other"},{"key":"publisher-name","value":"reuters.com"},{"key":"upstream-title","value":"Macro Matters: How long can the Fed wait and see?"},{"key":"external-asset-id","value":"285_RW558519032026RP1"},{"key":"package-no-social","value":"Yes"},{"key":"package-restrictions","value":"For Reuters platforms only. . For Reuters customers only."},{"key":"upstream-description","value":"The Fed kept interest rates unchanged on Wednesday, signalling just one potential cut for the year - even as escalating Middle East tensions cloud the economic outlook. Odeta Kushi from First American told Reuters that policymakers are closely monitoring the conflict’s inflation risks, leaving the door open for rate hikes if pressures resurface."},{"key":"upstream-channel-code","value":"vty454"}],"usn":"RW558519032026RP1"},{"id":"RW338612032026RP1","type":"video","subtype":"application/x-mpegURL","external_id":"RW338612032026RP1","title":"Macro Matters: Oil prices 'much less important to the US than 10 years ago'","description":"The IEA says the conflict in the Middle East is causing the biggest disruption to global oil supply in history. Lauren Saidel-Baker of ITR Economics told Reuters that energy makes up far less of Americans' spending than in decades past, though, so they may be able to weather higher prices at the pump for longer. ","duration":296.56,"transcript_data":{"transcript":"Oil is testing $100 a barrel, so what does that mean for the US economy. This is Macro Matters, and we're talking energy prices. The IEA says the war in the Middle East is creating the biggest oil supply disruption in history, cutting 8 million barrels of oil a day from global supplies. Member countries have agreed to release a record 400 million barrels from their reserves, but it seems to have had little impact on nervous energy markets. Lauren Saidel-Baker is an economist at ITR Economics. Lauren, crude at this price will filter quickly through to what Americans are paying at the pump, won't it? Absolutely. We have already seen energy markets and the nervousness add in some risk premium to pricing. Now we are coming out of an economic period where oil prices had been relatively low. We have seen relatively sustained gas and other energy prices here in the United States. So, I think some consumers will feel that whiplash of a rapid rise to much higher levels. Where are we going to feel the most pain in the U.S. economy? Clearly, our lower-income cohort is going to feel the most pain. They're the ones that are a little bit less flexible. They have more of their spending go toward necessities. So, there will certainly be some cases of pain and of trying to reach to make budgets work at these levels. However, over time, really since the 70s and 80s, we've seen the amount of consumer budgets that go toward energy prices, energy, both goods and services, really come down significantly. Today, about 3.7% of personal consumption expenditures go toward energy. So, if we had seen a shock like this 10, 20, or 30 years ago, it would have had a bigger macroeconomic impact. While we will see clearly microeconomic impacts, individual consumers will feel the pain. I don't expect the macro pain to be too widespread. The US, of course, is now a net oil producer rather than a consumer. So, is it much less sensitive then to oil prices than it was even 10 years ago? Yes, and in fact, the largest oil producer in the world. So, as we think about Iran, it clearly has the risk and the emotional response, right, of being in the Middle East, of being a major oil producer. Iran actually produces about. Three to four percent of the world's oil supply. So, while much of that will come offline, the Strait of Hormuz is actually the real pinch point. That is going to be a much larger impact. Iran's existing oil supply—most of it went to domestic uses, and much of the remainder was exported to China. That's estimated between one and a half and two million barrels per day in exports. What does this hit to inflation mean for the Fed, though? Does it take a cut off the table for this year? Again, we have seen relatively constrained energy price rises that had been one of the factors that just wasn't contributing to inflation quite as much as some other things. So, I don't think it takes one cut completely off the table, but it certainly does turn the tide, turn the sentiment slightly more hawkish. We saw CPI numbers yesterday, and again, these were for... Pre-war, pre-strike inflation numbers come out, really holding steady at 2.4%, 2.5% on a core basis. So we're still seeing persistent inflation for reasons other than energy prices. We're seeing this for wage pressures, housing costs, and limited affordability there. The real inflationary pressures won't be driven by just one thing, even if that thing is a war in the Middle East that makes big headlines. As you mentioned, many Americans are already struggling. Will higher borrowing costs worsen that picture for consumers? To some degree, yes, we've seen modest interest rate cuts, but the bond market hasn't been pushing through the same level of rate cuts to actual borrowing costs. And by that, I mean the amount you're paying on your credit card or your mortgage rate, for example. So, relatively higher rates. At some point, this had to happen. We're coming off of a near-zero interest rate environment and very, very low rates over a very long period of time. So, some of this is going to be a reset. We've seen periods of interest rates. This level in the past, and the US consumer just kept on right through it. I think we can do that this time again, especially as wages are keeping pace, at least thus far, with inflation. We've seen resilient growth in the US economy last year, and forecasts were that this would continue this year. Will the war in Iran change that? Actually, quite the opposite. Wars do tend to be economically stimulative. Much of the strength that we had been seeing in the U.S. economy was very much concentrated in the service sector. Anytime there is a global conflict of this or an increasing magnitude, we do tend to see more industry spool up to support it. So, I hate to say this—it sounds cold-hearted—but as an economist, that's my job. War is very economically beneficial. That was Lauren Saidel-Baker of ITR Economics. Don't forget, you can watch more videos on Reuters.com."},"published_time":"2026-03-12T13:49:42Z","updated_time":"2026-03-12T13:49:43Z","thumbnail":{"url":"https://ajo.prod.reuters.tv/api/v2/img/69b2c379e4b02ebad979c47b","caption":"The IEA says the conflict in the Middle East is causing the biggest disruption to global oil supply in history. Lauren Saidel-Baker of ITR Economics told Reuters that energy makes up far less of Americans' spending than in decades past, though, so they may be able to weather higher prices at the pump for longer. ","type":"image","resizer_url":"https://ajo.prod.reuters.tv/api/v2/img/69b2c379e4b02ebad979c47b"},"source":{"hls":"https://ajo.prod.reuters.tv/v3/playlist/752984/master.m3u8"},"channels":[{"id":"Article-Playlist-Middle-East","name":"Article-Playlist: Middle East","regions":["US"]},{"id":"Global_Energy","name":"Energy","regions":["US"]},{"id":"HPUS","name":"RCOM Homepage US","regions":["US"]},{"id":"Macro_Matters","name":"Macro Matters","regions":["US"]}],"advert_info":{"advert_params":[{"key":"adfriendly","value":true}],"advert_zone":"/4735792/reuters.com"},"meta_data":[{"key":"link","value":"tag:reuters.com,2026:newsml_RW338612032026RP1:4"},{"key":"byline","value":"London, UK"},{"key":"hidden","value":"false"},{"key":"region","value":"Remote"},{"key":"dateline","value":"Reuters, Reuters, MAR 12"},{"key":"lmp-feed","value":"lp"},{"key":"copyright","value":"(c) 2026 Thomson Reuters, unless otherwise identified. Full statement available at https://www.thomsonreuters.com/en/policies/copyright.html"},{"key":"package-mood","value":"Neutral"},{"key":"package-notes","value":"oil, Iran, inflation, Federal Reserve"},{"key":"package-format","value":"Other"},{"key":"publisher-name","value":"reuters.com"},{"key":"upstream-title","value":"Macro Matters: Oil prices 'much less important to the US than 10 years ago'"},{"key":"external-asset-id","value":"285_RW338612032026RP1"},{"key":"package-no-social","value":"Yes"},{"key":"package-restrictions","value":"For Reuters platforms only. . For Reuters customers only."},{"key":"upstream-description","value":"The IEA says the conflict in the Middle East is causing the biggest disruption to global oil supply in history. Lauren Saidel-Baker of ITR Economics told Reuters that energy makes up far less of Americans' spending than in decades past, though, so they may be able to weather higher prices at the pump for longer. "},{"key":"upstream-channel-code","value":"vty454"}],"usn":"RW338612032026RP1"},{"id":"RW133005032026RP1","type":"video","subtype":"application/x-mpegURL","external_id":"RW133005032026RP1","title":"Macro Matters: US 'a lot more resilient' to high energy prices","description":"The price of oil and gas has spiked after the conflict in the Middle East effectively blocked a fifth of the world's supply. Jeff Schulze of ClearBridge Investments told Reuters the U.S. economy is much less sensitive to energy price rises that it used to be since it has become a net oil importer.","duration":305.2,"transcript_data":{"transcript":"The price of oil is rising higher, with the world cut off from a fifth of global supplies of oil and LNG. This is Macro Matters, and we're talking about what the Middle East conflict could mean for the U.S. economy. More vessels have come under attack in the Gulf this Thursday, while the US government plan to escort tankers and provide insurance hasn't yet materialized, meaning the price of Brent crude is heading towards $84 a barrel. At the pump in the U.S., diesel has hit an average of over $4 a gallon, the highest since late 2023. That could mean the rise in inflation might take a summer Fed cut off the table. Well, Jeff Schulze is head of Economy and Market Strategy at ClearBridge Investments. Jeff, how concerned should we be about this impact of energy prices on the U.S. economy? Well, we shouldn't be that concerned for every $10 barrel increase that you'll see in oil. It should shave around 10 or 15 basis points off of this year's economic growth. And a key reason for that is the U.S. is a lot more resilient than it has been over history. First off, the U.S. is now a net exporter of energy, whereas previously it was a net importer. So, although higher energy prices do take away from the consumer and the consumption, Bucket of economic growth, you will get some of that back through higher energy production and potentially more employment in that sector. Also, the U.S. consumer spends a lot more of a share of their wallet on energy than historically speaking. So, when you look at it, percent of consumption and energy goods and services, it's about 3.7%. That's well below the 5% levels that we saw in 2022 when the Ukraine War began, well below the Gulf War, which is around 6%. And back in the 70s and 80s, it was anywhere from 7% to 9%. So, because they're spending less of their wallet on oil, it just makes the U.S. economy a lot less affected by energy price spikes. So, while there will be an effect, it's not going to be as bad as what you're seeing in global economies that may be net importers of energy products. Does that mean, though, that companies whose customers are lower-income Americans should be worried as higher gas prices take a slice out of their spending? Well, it will be a bigger share of their wallet. Everybody's inflation is different. But one reason why I'm not concerned about the low-to-middle-income consumer this year is that you are going to see the peak fiscal impulse of the one big, beautiful bill hit here in 2026. It's about half a percent of GDP that will be going towards consumers. And a lot of that's going to be through higher tax refunds as we move through the next three to four months. So I'm expecting much more of a uniform consumption picture this year than the K-shaped consumer. That we've seen in years past, even if energy prices are going to spike, gasoline will disproportionately hit that lower-income consumer. How will this shake out for the Feds, though? Might a spike in gasoline force them to push a cutback? Well, Fed fund futures have already taken out a full cut from 2026 expectations. Now, the market is expecting one and a half cuts this year. But I do think that the Fed will be able to support the economy. But we may need to push back when that first cut ultimately comes. Instead of being in June or July, it may be closer to September. But ultimately, when you look at underlying inflation before the Middle East skirmish started to happen, there was a lot of progress. Core goods inflation has been pretty negligible. Shelter inflation continues to move down, and Supercore, which is the Fed's preferred measure of demand-driven inflation, was hot in the last couple of prints. However, that has a really strong relationship with wage growth, and wage growth continues to moderate. So although this may push back Fed easing, I'm still expecting the Fed to cut here in 2026. When the attacks began, investors sold off US Treasury bonds, when we might usually expect them to act as a safe haven. What's going on in the bond market? Does that show nerves about the cost of the war and the impact on the spiraling U.S. debt? Well, I think it's two things. I think, first off, if these Fed cuts have come out of the market, that's going to be pushing up where the Fed funds rate will ultimately sit, which tends to push up long-term bonds. But also, given this inflation uncertainty and how long this disruption is going to occur, investors are requiring more inflation compensation as a result. So, that's a key reason, in our opinion, why you've seen the long end push up here in the U.S. Can forecasts for the U.S. economy's growth remain intact if this goes on? It is. This year, we're seeing support for the economy that you rarely see outside of recessions. You've had the Fed that's cut 175 basis points over the last year and a half. And you also have that peak fiscal impulse of the one big, beautiful bill, which is close to 1% of GDP. So, when you take that and you combine it with the AI investment wave that's taking place, Yes, GDP growth may be marginally lower because of recent events, but we still think the U.S. economy will grow in the mid-2% range on a real basis here over the next 12 months. That was Jeff Schulze of ClearBridge Investments. Don't forget, you can watch more videos on Reuters.com."},"published_time":"2026-03-05T15:45:15Z","updated_time":"2026-03-05T15:45:16Z","thumbnail":{"url":"https://ajo.prod.reuters.tv/api/v2/img/69a9a3fde4b0b78368385bf1","caption":"The price of oil and gas has spiked after the conflict in the Middle East effectively blocked a fifth of the world's supply. Jeff Schulze of ClearBridge Investments told Reuters the U.S. economy is much less sensitive to energy price rises that it used to be since it has become a net oil importer.","type":"image","resizer_url":"https://ajo.prod.reuters.tv/api/v2/img/69a9a3fde4b0b78368385bf1"},"source":{"hls":"https://ajo.prod.reuters.tv/v3/playlist/750164/master.m3u8"},"channels":[{"id":"6ffc0233e09c26943b265ef3abd575b2d872818b","name":"Business","regions":["US"]},{"id":"HPUS","name":"RCOM Homepage US","regions":["US"]},{"id":"Macro_Matters","name":"Macro Matters","regions":["US"]}],"advert_info":{"advert_params":[{"key":"adfriendly","value":true}],"advert_zone":"/4735792/reuters.com"},"meta_data":[{"key":"link","value":"tag:reuters.com,2026:newsml_RW133005032026RP1:4"},{"key":"byline","value":"London, UK"},{"key":"hidden","value":"false"},{"key":"region","value":"Remote"},{"key":"dateline","value":"Reuters, Reuters, MAR 05"},{"key":"lmp-feed","value":"lp"},{"key":"copyright","value":"(c) 2026 Thomson Reuters, unless otherwise identified. Full statement available at https://www.thomsonreuters.com/en/policies/copyright.html"},{"key":"package-mood","value":"Neutral"},{"key":"package-notes","value":"oil, gas, inflation, Federal Reserve"},{"key":"package-format","value":"Other"},{"key":"publisher-name","value":"reuters.com"},{"key":"upstream-title","value":"Macro Matters: US 'a lot more resilient' to high energy prices"},{"key":"external-asset-id","value":"285_RW133005032026RP1"},{"key":"package-no-social","value":"Yes"},{"key":"package-restrictions","value":"For Reuters platforms only.. For Reuters customers only."},{"key":"upstream-description","value":"The price of oil and gas has spiked after the conflict in the Middle East effectively blocked a fifth of the world's supply. Jeff Schulze of ClearBridge Investments told Reuters the U.S. economy is much less sensitive to energy price rises that it used to be since it has become a net oil importer."},{"key":"upstream-channel-code","value":"vty454"}],"usn":"RW133005032026RP1"},{"id":"RW885226022026RP1","type":"video","subtype":"application/x-mpegURL","external_id":"RW885226022026RP1","title":"Macro Matters: Supreme Court has 'weakened Trump'","description":"After the Supreme Court ruled most of President Trump's tariffs illegal, the EU has postponed ratification of its trade deal with the U.S. while moving ahead with plans to incentivise 'made in Europe' in strategic sectors. Economist Holger Schmieding of Berenberg told Reuters Europe has realised it needs to develop strategic autonomy, but European companies may not be ready to replace foreign suppliers. ","duration":311.46,"transcript_data":{"transcript":"Can Made in Europe give the EU's economy a boost? This is Macro Matters, and we're talking industrial policy in Europe. Long a taboo phrase, the EU is planning to change course with rules that will require projects that get public funding to use materials manufactured in the EU. The plans aim to cover strategic sectors like batteries, wind and solar energy, nuclear power, and electric vehicles. Holger Schmieding is Chief Economist at Berenberg. Holger, this sort of policy was long considered too protectionist by many European countries, including Germany and the Netherlands. What changes have made this possible now? Well, to some extent, we've realized across Europe, including Germany and Northern Europe, that we need some degree of strategic autonomy. We cannot be dangerously dependent on unreliable partners. But the problem is that some other countries are trying to mix genuine protectionism with this strategic prerogative. And that makes the negotiation so difficult. There are some signs, put it that way, a lot of pressure from Brussels, that we may be close to an agreement, but I don't think it's a done deal. Deal yet? Would it make a major difference? Probably not, as long as we have some protectionist elements in there. You can argue that the protectionist elements, which actually mean that inputs for some of our industries get more expensive and hence undermine the competitiveness of these industries, that those negative elements may be as important as the positive elements. So, net-net, it may actually not make a huge difference. As you mentioned, this agreement was expected this week, but it's got bogged down in delays. How did it get stuck? Well, because the major differences are unresolved. How protectionist should it be? And, well, how precisely should it be applied? There is a lot of talk about various sectors. Are solar panels a sector where we really need strategic autonomy? We do need some strategic autonomy in critical raw materials, clearly. We need it in stuff for our defense, where we're no longer sure that, in the long run, we can get it from the U.S. and definitely not from China. But there is a lot of work on the details to tilt, sort of, the balance—hopefully—between genuine protectionism and genuinely justified strategic autonomy for some strategic key sectors, to tilt the balance, hopefully, the right way, not towards too much protectionism. Are European manufacturers ready to replace foreign suppliers in these sectors? Well, probably in some of these sectors, not really, or not at the cheap cost at which we could get the stuff from abroad. My view: The better approach would be to first identify where we really need some degree of strategic autonomy and then see how we can get there. That may be protectionist measures. That may be something like the \"Made in Europe\" initiative. That may be subsidies here and there. In my view, this is not yet the draft that we've seen so far, and it is not yet the perfect solution. Yes, we need to be more independent, but we also need to make sure that. In the non-critical sectors, our companies and our consumers get cheap goods from abroad. This comes, of course, after the EU has postponed the ratification of a trade deal with the US, which was criticised for giving the US too much leverage after the Supreme Court threw out the rationale for President Trump's tariffs. Where does the EU go from here in its trading relationship with Washington? First of all, the EU now needs to wait for what happens in the US. Is it a 10% universal tariff? Is it going to be the 15% universal tariff? If it's 10%, then we could say, \"Oh, that's actually better than the deal we had.\" Great, let's stick with that. If it's 15%, it would mean that for some goods... The tariffs in the US would be higher than under the deal that we struck, sort of, at Tornbury last July with the US. Then, we would have a significant need to renegotiate with the US. All in all, I would say this Supreme Court decision weakens the position of Trump. It strengthens the negotiating position of others, including the EU. But still, we need Trump for Ukraine. That is, we cannot drive too hard a bargain. In the end, whatever comes out of... It will remain somewhat lopsided towards Trump's interests simply because we need U.S. support for Ukraine for as long as we can get it. Washington, though, says it rejects attempts by the EU to prioritize European companies in fields like supplying arms to Ukraine. Could that be a problem if trade renegotiations are now on the table? That could be a problem, but it should not be a problem in the sense that, at least immediately, right now for Ukraine, we simply need the best weapons available. It doesn't matter from where they are. A European preference, which could potentially mean that deliveries to Ukraine are delayed or not of the best quality, would be self-defeating for Europe on the battlefield. So, I think we should not mix these two things. That was Holger Schmieding of Berenberg. Don't forget, you can watch more videos on Reuters.com."},"published_time":"2026-02-26T15:01:59Z","updated_time":"2026-02-26T15:02:02Z","thumbnail":{"url":"https://ajo.prod.reuters.tv/api/v2/img/69a05f36e4b0944ae8e4e156-1772183557479","caption":"After the Supreme Court ruled most of President Trump's tariffs illegal, the EU has postponed ratification of its trade deal with the U.S. while moving ahead with plans to incentivise 'made in Europe' in strategic sectors. Economist Holger Schmieding of Berenberg told Reuters Europe has realised it needs to develop strategic autonomy, but European companies may not be ready to replace foreign suppliers. ","type":"image","resizer_url":"https://ajo.prod.reuters.tv/api/v2/img/69a05f36e4b0944ae8e4e156-1772183557479"},"source":{"hls":"https://ajo.prod.reuters.tv/v3/playlist/746709/master.m3u8"},"channels":[{"id":"HPUS","name":"RCOM Homepage US","regions":["US"]},{"id":"Macro_Matters","name":"Macro Matters","regions":["US"]}],"advert_info":{"advert_params":[{"key":"adfriendly","value":true}],"advert_zone":"/4735792/reuters.com"},"meta_data":[{"key":"link","value":"tag:reuters.com,2026:newsml_RW885226022026RP1:5"},{"key":"byline","value":"London, UK"},{"key":"hidden","value":"false"},{"key":"region","value":"Remote"},{"key":"dateline","value":"Reuters, Reuters, FEB 27"},{"key":"lmp-feed","value":"lp"},{"key":"copyright","value":"(c) 2026 Thomson Reuters, unless otherwise identified. Full statement available at https://www.thomsonreuters.com/en/policies/copyright.html"},{"key":"package-mood","value":"Neutral"},{"key":"package-notes","value":"EU trade, tariffs, Ukraine, defence"},{"key":"package-format","value":"Other"},{"key":"publisher-name","value":"reuters.com"},{"key":"upstream-title","value":"Macro Matters: Supreme Court has 'weakened Trump'"},{"key":"external-asset-id","value":"285_RW885226022026RP1"},{"key":"package-no-social","value":"Yes"},{"key":"package-restrictions","value":"For Reuters platforms only. . For Reuters customers only."},{"key":"upstream-description","value":"After the Supreme Court ruled most of President Trump's tariffs illegal, the EU has postponed ratification of its trade deal with the U.S. while moving ahead with plans to incentivise 'made in Europe' in strategic sectors. Economist Holger Schmieding of Berenberg told Reuters Europe has realised it needs to develop strategic autonomy, but European companies may not be ready to replace foreign suppliers. "},{"key":"upstream-channel-code","value":"vty454"}],"usn":"RW885226022026RP1"},{"id":"RW686019022026RP1","type":"video","subtype":"application/x-mpegURL","external_id":"RW686019022026RP1","title":"Macro Matters: Bank of England doves 'are winning'","description":"UK inflation dropped to a 10-month low on Wednesday, fuelling expectations of an imminent interest rate cut as the Bank of England prepares for its next meeting. Liz Martins from HSBC told Reuters she predicts three cuts this year - but with the central bank’s messaging changing rapidly, the timing remains highly uncertain. ","duration":330.36,"transcript_data":{"transcript":"UK inflation is taking a break, so is the Bank of England ready to catch up? This is Macro Matters, and we're talking about the UK. Catherine Mann has never been shy about staking out her position. Since joining the Bank of England in 2021, she's become one of the most forceful dovish voices, warning that years of high inflation have left lasting scars. Now inflation has fallen to its lowest level since March 2025, and markets are betting that rate cuts are coming. So, is Mann's argument starting to win the day? Let's ask Liz Martins, Senior UK Economist at HSBC. So, Liz, petrol and airfares helped pull January... Inflation down to a 10-month low. But services inflation is still sticky. Is this just a temporary reprieve? No, we do think inflation has now peaked. Service inflation is a little bit higher than maybe some were expecting, although it was in line with our own forecast, and momentum is returning to something much more normal. So, we think overall headline inflation and, indeed, services inflation have peaked, and where we'll see that really noticeably should be in the month of April. If you think back to last year, we had an awful April, where all kinds of household prices went up at the same time, and it led the overall rate to jump. Now, this year, I'm calling. Less awful April. So, a lot of those rises will still come through, but to a much lesser extent, and that will mathematically reduce the annual rate of inflation in April in particular. So, hopefully, that will provide some relief. Where the unemployment rate has risen to its highest level since the pandemic, and wage growth is slowing. So, is this the start of something more worrying for the labour market? Well, the labour market is a bit of a worry. I think there's two narratives out there. So, one narrative—the optimistic one. And if you talk to recruiters, you'll hear this: that actually, there was a lot of demand for new hiring pent up because of budget uncertainty. You know, people are waiting for the budget, waiting for Christmas. And we'll start to see some of those jobs being filled now. But I haven't seen a whole lot of evidence of that yet, and we've got some quite timely data on new job postings, for example, which haven't seen much of a recovery at all into the new year. And of course, we're quite a long way past Christmas now, and we still haven't seen that recovery. The big question is: The latest data has reinforced expectations of a rate cut in March and June. Does that align with your outlook, and how quickly do you see rates coming down this year? Yeah, so we have three cuts in our own forecast this year, down to taking bank rates to 3% by the end of the year. To be honest, the timing of those cuts is incredibly uncertain. The Bank of England, sort of, you know, the messaging changes seemingly from one meeting to another. So, it does jump around in terms of expectations. At the moment, the market is pricing a very high probability that the next cut will come on the 19th of March. And generally speaking, the BoE Probably doesn't want to deliver a big surprise to the market. So, March is possible; April is definitely possible as well, if they want to wait and see a few more bits of data. And then, I think it will all come down to the combination of that data that we've been talking about. Does unemployment continue to rise, or does it stabilize? But we do think they can cut two more times this year and ultimately get to 3% by the end of the year, whether it's sooner or perhaps takes a bit longer. While Chief Economist Hugh Pill has warned that rates may need to stay higher for longer, is agreement and consensus among the MPCs still a long way off? Yeah, there's a pretty clear divide in the NPC between people who think the biggest worry at the moment is soft demand, rising unemployment, and the risk of ultimately an undershoot in inflation. And those who think the biggest risk is, um, for inflation to, you know, stay high or maybe even pop back up again. And, and, you know, to be honest, it is a very uncertain time, and I think both of those arguments can be compelling. At the moment, though, I think the dovish side is winning. Argument from the data, you know, we've talked about slowing pay growth, rising unemployment, lower inflation, and so at the moment the dovish side is kind of just about winning the argument, but as we move through the year we'll, we'll find out whether, you know, some of those hawkish concerns do do prove right because after all, companies have been under a lot of pressure. Margins have been squeezed, and if companies want to rebuild those margins, um, you know, they may want to put prices up down the line. So, um, you know, I think Hugh Hill's concerns are, are, are, are, are absolutely justified. Um, it's just a really uncertain time. So, I think the near-term outlook is a bit more dovish, but there is a big question mark over the medium term. Finally, some are saying that the UK bonds are expected to rally in 2026, pushing borrowing costs to the lowest since 2024. What's your outlook for gilts? Yeah, well, I think there's a few different factors here. I mean, on the one hand, you know, you have got still heavy issuance, and you've still got a sizable fiscal deficit, which is part of the reason why yields have stayed higher. But if we are right and bank rates come down to three percent, that's a bit lower than what the market is pricing at three twenty-five. And then that should open up some scope for slightly lower and gilt yields. Of course, politics is always a risk to that, and uncertainty plays into that. But yeah, I think. Slightly low yields are absolutely possible. That was Liz Martins from HSBC. Don't forget, you can watch more videos on Reuters.com."},"published_time":"2026-02-19T14:51:33Z","updated_time":"2026-02-19T14:51:37Z","thumbnail":{"url":"https://ajo.prod.reuters.tv/api/v2/img/69972263e4b08f93b605bfba","caption":"UK inflation dropped to a 10-month low on Wednesday, fuelling expectations of an imminent interest rate cut as the Bank of England prepares for its next meeting. Liz Martins from HSBC told Reuters she predicts three cuts this year - but with the central bank’s messaging changing rapidly, the timing remains highly uncertain. ","type":"image","resizer_url":"https://ajo.prod.reuters.tv/api/v2/img/69972263e4b08f93b605bfba"},"source":{"hls":"https://ajo.prod.reuters.tv/v3/playlist/744934/master.m3u8"},"channels":[{"id":"6ffc0233e09c26943b265ef3abd575b2d872818b","name":"Business","regions":["US"]},{"id":"Macro_Matters","name":"Macro Matters","regions":["US"]}],"advert_info":{"advert_params":[{"key":"adfriendly","value":true}],"advert_zone":"/4735792/reuters.com"},"meta_data":[{"key":"link","value":"tag:reuters.com,2026:newsml_RW686019022026RP1:4"},{"key":"byline","value":"London, UK"},{"key":"hidden","value":"false"},{"key":"region","value":"Remote"},{"key":"dateline","value":"Reuters, Reuters, FEB 19"},{"key":"lmp-feed","value":"lp"},{"key":"copyright","value":"(c) 2026 Thomson Reuters, unless otherwise identified. Full statement available at https://www.thomsonreuters.com/en/policies/copyright.html"},{"key":"package-mood","value":"Neutral"},{"key":"package-notes","value":"Huw Pill, Labour Market, Inflation, Bank of England, Gilts, Cuts, Unemployment, MPC, Interest Rates, Growth, Catherine Mann"},{"key":"package-format","value":"Other"},{"key":"publisher-name","value":"reuters.com"},{"key":"upstream-title","value":"Macro Matters: Bank of England doves 'are winning'"},{"key":"external-asset-id","value":"285_RW686019022026RP1"},{"key":"package-no-social","value":"Yes"},{"key":"package-restrictions","value":"For Reuters platforms only. . For Reuters customers only."},{"key":"upstream-description","value":"UK inflation dropped to a 10-month low on Wednesday, fuelling expectations of an imminent interest rate cut as the Bank of England prepares for its next meeting. Liz Martins from HSBC told Reuters she predicts three cuts this year - but with the central bank’s messaging changing rapidly, the timing remains highly uncertain. "},{"key":"upstream-channel-code","value":"vty454"}],"usn":"RW686019022026RP1"},{"id":"RW489612022026RP1","type":"video","subtype":"application/x-mpegURL","external_id":"RW489612022026RP1","title":"Macro Matters: 'Buy European' could lead to 'EU-washing'","description":"EU leaders met in Belgium this Thursday to discuss how to improve Europe's economic competitiveness, including by encouraging businesses to 'buy European.' Economist Carsten Brzeski of ING told Reuters it's hard to trace the origin of whole supply chains, and the idea must go in hand with the removal of regulation and barriers in the single market. ","duration":366.26,"transcript_data":{"transcript":"Is buy European the answer to Europe's future in a volatile world? This is Macro Matters, and we're talking European competitiveness. That's the theme of an EU summit being held in Belgium this Thursday, where leaders are considering the once-taboo policy of favoring European companies in key sectors like tech. The EU executive is expected to set targets for European content in products like electric vehicles and solar panels. Well, Carsten Brzeski is the Global Head of Macro at ING Research. Carsten, some countries, like France, embrace this idea; others, that are traditionally more pro-free trade, Like the Netherlands and the Nordics are not so keen. Who's right? That is so often in Europe. All of them are a little bit right, but none is really fully and entirely right, because this debate shows us that we have two different teams here. We have one team that is building more open trade, globalization, rather in favor of structural reforms. And we have the other team, led by France, that is more protectionist, that goes more for government intervention. And when you now look, especially, like you mentioned, at the buy European idea, of course, The idea is good. It is, well, clearly, it shows to strengthen the European economy. But then, when put into practice, I think this is where the difficulties would emerge. One is clearly how our trading partners react. Retaliation for a region that is highly depending on global trade is dangerous. And the other one is that we could get a kind of EU washing of supply chains. Because how can you really show That the entire supply chain, or the biggest part of the supply chain, is really made in Europe. So, I think what we clearly want to achieve is that customers, consumers will shift more towards European goods. However, to have it fully, again, regulated by the EU does not make a lot of sense. What else needs to happen then for Europe to regain competitiveness against the US and China? I think we need to unleash business. We need to unleash innovation. How can you do this in Europe? Well, one would clearly be: reduce bureaucracy, reduce regulation, and please don't come up with additional regulation to reduce regulation. Just simply get rid of regulation. That is one part. The other one, and that is a more difficult one, is to really get a fully functioning single market. And to get a fully functioning single market, European leaders would have to tackle issues like: Tax harmonization, harmonization of pensions, of social security systems. So everything that enables actually full labor mobility, that enables full mobility of corporates. So, this is what? Because, yes, in terms of the number of citizens, in terms of the size of GDP, Europe is equal to the U.S. But when you look at the details, there are so many. European hurdles that still have to be reduced or actually get away with them in order to make the EU really competitive, vis-à-vis the US and China. And final point, Elena—sorry for this very long answer—is that Europe needs more investment. What about unified European capital markets? Is that even feasible? I think the latter part of your question is the... Ever-occurring European problem: namely, are these proposals actually feasible? And yes, in an ideal world, in a theoretical world, a fully functioning capital market would make sense. It would clearly also boost not only trust in the European market, But that is the theory. When you look at it in practice, we've still seen that European capitals... Market. But that is the theory. When you look at it in practice, we've still seen that European capitals... Tend to shield their national champions, tend to shield their national markets, and so, therefore, this will be a struggle. In an ideal world, yes, a fully-fledged capital markets union would also clearly boost the European economy. But the other way around might be an idea: to come up with something like a European sovereign wealth fund. So a pan-European investment vehicle, which allows European citizens to... To be invested. The former ECB Chief Mario Draghi said last week that Europe risks becoming subordinated, divided, and deindustrialised all at once as the world changes. Was he right? He's fully right, and I would never dare argue with Mario Draghi, in all honesty, because his analysis is spot-on. The problem currently is that we are gradually sliding into this future. It is something that is not so tangible. From day to day, but when you look at a longer time horizon, you compare the situation from a few years ago with maybe what would happen if Europe does not react over the next 5 years. It indeed means Europe further having lost international competitiveness, having lost international market shares, and the point is if Europe is unable to really grow. And to be competitive. We won't have highly-paid jobs in Europe anymore, and we need highly-paid jobs. We need economic growth in order to finance our social economic model, which consists of a very good pension system, a very good social security system, and a very good healthcare system. But we need growth. We need well-paid jobs in order to fund it. That was Carsten Brzeski of ING. Don't forget you can watch more videos on Reuters.com."},"published_time":"2026-02-12T14:30:40Z","updated_time":"2026-02-12T14:30:41Z","thumbnail":{"url":"https://ajo.prod.reuters.tv/api/v2/img/698de2ece4b08f93b6059f46","caption":"EU leaders met in Belgium this Thursday to discuss how to improve Europe's economic competitiveness, including by encouraging businesses to 'buy European.' Economist Carsten Brzeski of ING told Reuters it's hard to trace the origin of whole supply chains, and the idea must go in hand with the removal of regulation and barriers in the single market. ","type":"image","resizer_url":"https://ajo.prod.reuters.tv/api/v2/img/698de2ece4b08f93b6059f46"},"source":{"hls":"https://ajo.prod.reuters.tv/v3/playlist/742280/master.m3u8"},"channels":[{"id":"6ffc0233e09c26943b265ef3abd575b2d872818b","name":"Business","regions":["US"]},{"id":"europe","name":"Europe","regions":["US"]},{"id":"Macro_Matters","name":"Macro Matters","regions":["US"]}],"advert_info":{"advert_params":[{"key":"adfriendly","value":true}],"advert_zone":"/4735792/reuters.com"},"meta_data":[{"key":"link","value":"tag:reuters.com,2026:newsml_RW489612022026RP1:4"},{"key":"byline","value":"London, UK"},{"key":"hidden","value":"false"},{"key":"region","value":"Remote"},{"key":"dateline","value":"Reuters, Reuters, FEB 12"},{"key":"lmp-feed","value":"lp"},{"key":"copyright","value":"(c) 2026 Thomson Reuters, unless otherwise identified. 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"},{"key":"upstream-channel-code","value":"vty454"}],"usn":"RW489612022026RP1"},{"id":"RW306805022026RP1","type":"video","subtype":"application/x-mpegURL","external_id":"RW306805022026RP1","title":"Macro Matters: Lower inflation could allow the Bank of England to cut in the spring","description":"The Bank of England and the ECB both held interest rates steady on Thursday, but the tone coming from Threadneedle Street surprised markets. Four out of nine policymakers voted for a cut, because, George Buckley of Nomura told Reuters, they now see inflation coming down significantly in the spring.","duration":368.1,"transcript_data":{"transcript":"'The Bank of England and the ECB hold rates, but a cut from the BoE might be closer than we thought. This is Macro Matters, and we're talking central banks. No movement across Europe this Thursday, as markets expected. Both the ECB and the Bank of England held tight. But the BoE's decision was on a knife-edge, with four out of nine committee members voting for a cut. That means March's meeting is now suddenly up in the air. While George Buckley is Chief European Economist at Nomura. George, why this tilt towards a move to lower?' 'Well, I think a number of the MPC members have said today that it's not necessarily because of the economic data, which I don't think has been that bad, actually, between the December and today's February meeting. But, what it is more to do with is the fact that the bank has revised its forecast, and it's revised them pretty significantly. If you look at the end of 2026, 2027, and 2028, they no longer see inflation above target at any point. It's all below target from the second half of this year, or at target. So, it's a much better profile. They've taken a knife, also, to their economic growth forecast. They've been lowered as well. So, the combination of that and the bank's view that maybe we're still above neutral, they still need to cut interest rates further, suggests there are risks that they might have to go quicker. They might have to go more than is priced in.' 'Do you agree with those inflation forecasts though? Is the UK's inflation finally under control?' 'I think it is. And we've had a long-held view that we think inflation is going to dip below target in the first-half of this year. Now, some of that, as Catherine Mann mentioned In today's meeting, has been or is likely to be due to mechanical base effects. And she did not want to vote for a rate cut this time purely because she didn't want to make it look like voting for a rate cut, even though it's all mechanical, it's not an underlying, necessarily an underlying fall. But we will see in April some of the administered price increases drop out of the annual comparison. We'll see some of the budget changes that were announced. At the end of last year, pulled down on inflation as well. So, that combination will see a sharp decline. And the Bank of England, just a few months ago, back in November, thought that inflation was going to be almost 3% in the second quarter of this year. They now think it's just over 2%. So, this is a very significant change in forecast. If they're right, if we're right, then we are going to see inflation come back and fall back quite significantly.' 'Should committee members be worrying, though, that the British economy, and especially the jobs market, needs some help fairly urgently?' 'Well, this is something that has certainly been talked about in this particular meeting. We know from a number of labor market reports, now over the last year or so, that things have been weakening. We've seen the unemployment rate rise by about three-quarters of a percent over the course of the last year. We've seen vacancies fall. They're not falling anymore, but they are down relative to where they were. So, importantly, wage growth is responding.' To that end, I think responding also to the fact that inflation is actually lower as well, people aren't trying to claim that high rate of inflation which we've been seeing in the past. Then, they no longer need to push for higher wages. So, all of that suggests the labor market is softening, and that just gives them a bit more space in order to cut interest rates.' 'Meanwhile, in Frankfurt, ECB policymakers seem to think they've found a neutral rate. The market's hesitant to bet on them moving anywhere this year. But Christine Lagarde sounded quite positive about Europe's growth. Do you agree?' 'I do, and I think it's going to be helped by the fact that Germany is spending a lot more in terms of fiscal policy expansion, and that really is going to take effect this year. The European Commission thinks there's a very big fiscal impulse coming from Germany, admittedly not from anywhere else. A lot of other countries are doing precisely the opposite of Germany. They're not loosening fiscal policy there. They're tightening. But you know, we have Spain, which is recovering or growing very well. We have a number of European countries where growth is actually pretty decent, and domestic demand is pretty good as well. So, I think all of that points to a strengthening in growth. And you might get that growth without inflation because, if you look at Germany's spare capacity, there's a lot of it. And that means that there is ample opportunity for growth to recover in Germany without. Generating the usual inflationary pressures that you might associate with stronger growth and fiscal expansion.' 'What about the impact of choppy financial markets, though, especially the tumbling dollar against the euro? What does that mean for policy?' 'Well, there were a number of questions to Madam Lagarde about that today, and she was pretty emphatic that the ECB does not target the exchange rate. However, the exchange rate does have an impact on inflation via import prices. If you have a higher exchange rate, then you should see import prices slow. And that's something which they'll be looking out for. We're forecasting that by the end of the year, we'll be at around 120 against the dollar, and you probably need a further move up. In the currency, in order to push the ECB into action. And that's one reason why we don't expect the ECB to move rates over this year or next. We think they will stand apart and keep interest rates unchanged. I think, looking further ahead, there is the possibility that the cycle is over now. The rate-cutting cycle is over, and they might have to raise interest rates further ahead because there might be a lot of pressures, some of which might be generated by Germany as that spare capacity slowly erodes over time, but at the moment, I don't think there's really any need for the ECB to do anything. As Madam Lagarde keeps saying, they're in a good place.' 'That was George Buckley of Nomura. Don't forget, you can watch more videos on Reuters.com'"},"published_time":"2026-02-05T16:11:40Z","updated_time":"2026-02-05T16:11:41Z","thumbnail":{"url":"https://ajo.prod.reuters.tv/api/v2/img/6984c03fe4b0208dfee72760","caption":"The Bank of England and the ECB both held interest rates steady on Thursday, but the tone coming from Threadneedle Street surprised markets. Four out of nine policymakers voted for a cut, because, George Buckley of Nomura told Reuters, they now see inflation coming down significantly in the spring.","type":"image","resizer_url":"https://ajo.prod.reuters.tv/api/v2/img/6984c03fe4b0208dfee72760"},"source":{"hls":"https://ajo.prod.reuters.tv/v3/playlist/740600/master.m3u8"},"channels":[{"id":"6ffc0233e09c26943b265ef3abd575b2d872818b","name":"Business","regions":["US"]},{"id":"Macro_Matters","name":"Macro Matters","regions":["US"]}],"advert_info":{"advert_params":[{"key":"adfriendly","value":true}],"advert_zone":"/4735792/reuters.com"},"meta_data":[{"key":"link","value":"tag:reuters.com,2026:newsml_RW306805022026RP1:4"},{"key":"byline","value":"London, UK"},{"key":"hidden","value":"false"},{"key":"region","value":"Remote"},{"key":"dateline","value":"Reuters, Reuters, FEB 05"},{"key":"lmp-feed","value":"lp"},{"key":"copyright","value":"(c) 2026 Thomson Reuters, unless otherwise identified. Full statement available at https://www.thomsonreuters.com/en/policies/copyright.html"},{"key":"package-mood","value":"Neutral"},{"key":"package-notes","value":"Bank of England, UK inflation, ECB, euro"},{"key":"package-format","value":"Other"},{"key":"publisher-name","value":"reuters.com"},{"key":"upstream-title","value":"Macro Matters: Lower inflation could allow the Bank of England to cut in the spring"},{"key":"external-asset-id","value":"285_RW306805022026RP1"},{"key":"package-no-social","value":"Yes"},{"key":"package-restrictions","value":"For Reuters platforms only. . For Reuters customers only."},{"key":"upstream-description","value":"The Bank of England and the ECB both held interest rates steady on Thursday, but the tone coming from Threadneedle Street surprised markets. Four out of nine policymakers voted for a cut, because, George Buckley of Nomura told Reuters, they now see inflation coming down significantly in the spring."},{"key":"upstream-channel-code","value":"vty454"}],"usn":"RW306805022026RP1"},{"id":"RW108229012026RP1","type":"video","subtype":"application/x-mpegURL","external_id":"RW108229012026RP1","title":"Macro Matters: The next Fed chair 'still needs consensus'","description":"Markets are no longer pricing in any more cuts from the Federal Reserve before the end of Jerome Powell's term in May, but President Trump has made it very clear he wants the next chair to go further. Economist Mark Fleming of First American told Reuters that just because the chair themselves wants to cut, that does not mean that person will be able to convince the rest of the board. ","duration":225.93,"transcript_data":{"transcript":"'The Fed stays put, so is this the end of cuts under Chair Powell?' 'This is Macro Matters, and we're talking the Fed. Policymakers hit pause this week. Chair Jerome Powell said the economy had surprised them with its strength, and it's hard to argue that policy is particularly restrictive now. Markets are no longer pricing in any further moves before Powell steps down in May, but the new Chair could change everything. Mark Fleming is Chief Economist at First American. Mark, do you think we've seen the last policy moves under Chair Powell?' 'It's possible, although you never can say anything with certainty. It's clear based upon less the announcement of the actual no change, but the press conference after, that there seems to be a sort of more balance between the dual mandates of, you know, struggling to bring down inflation versus the labor market. As you mentioned, the labor market in their assessment is not as weak as maybe they thought at the end of last year. And so, staying put and letting the changes that they made last year sort of work their way through in those long and variable impacts that they talk about, and see what happens. They are still, at least as of the December estimate, suggesting that they will cut more this year, that there will be continued monetary easing, but maybe only once or twice. That could happen in the back half, or, as you said, with a change in leadership, not at all or more.' 'Two officials dissented in favor of a cut, one of them Christopher Waller, who is one of the top candidates to replace Powell. Is this a taste of things to come? Are we going to see those steeper cuts?' 'I think just because there's a new chairman doesn't make a significant difference in the overall committee. Remember that even the chairman is one of many voting members. And so, you still need to get consensus to change rates. And two is not the majority of 12, even if one of those two were the chairman themselves.' 'Well, the market agrees they're not pricing in the kind of steep rate cuts that President Trump has made it clear that he wants to see. But should it be?' 'I think it's a fair assessment. There's actually the opposite risk that, if you cut rates too dramatically in this environment, given what the market understands as good economic policy, you could actually, yes, reduce rates at the lower end. Obviously, the Federal Reserve... Fed funds rate influences shorter-term lending and credit rates more dramatically than long-term. But you could have, like, the bond vigilantes reappear and say, 'That's not good economic policy,' and actually raise long-term rates, which would have negative consequences, of course, particularly in the housing market.' 'Absolutely. And even if Fed rates do come down, then towards the end of the year, will that make much difference for potential mortgage borrowers?' 'Well, recent history suggests that what the Fed does doesn't really do anything for mortgage borrowers. The announcement this week, basically, the market didn't do anything at all. The 10-year Treasury barely moved. Even the rate cuts at the end of last year, they reduced the short-end, but the long-end of the yield curve stayed the same. 10-year Treasury has been range-bound just over 4% for most of the last few months. And so, rate cuts don't necessarily portend lower mortgages.' 'Then, could these worries about the independence of the Fed further encourage investors to sell U.S. assets and push up those longer-term costs, then? Have we seen any of that yet?' 'None of that yet. I think while obviously it's a matter of debate and concern that independence is threatened, most of the academic research suggests that, you know, independent Feds create better monetary policy and have more stable markets and are better for an economy than non-independent Feds. The chances of the Fed becoming independent again get back to this concept of an equal among 12, not just one.' 'That was Mark Fleming of First American. Don't forget you can watch more videos on Reuters.com'"},"published_time":"2026-01-29T15:15:45Z","updated_time":"2026-01-29T15:15:47Z","thumbnail":{"url":"https://ajo.prod.reuters.tv/api/v2/img/697b78f9e4b0208dfee6fbfe","caption":"Markets are no longer pricing in any more cuts from the Federal Reserve before the end of Jerome Powell's term in May, but President Trump has made it very clear he wants the next chair to go further. Economist Mark Fleming of First American told Reuters that just because the chair themselves wants to cut, that does not mean that person will be able to convince the rest of the board. 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