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Warsh’s reluctant turn restarts Fed war
Reuters Breakingviews · 2026-09-16
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class="nav-dropdown-module__more-section-group__6-L2e nav-dropdown-module__has-children__Wpz3R"><h2 data-testid="Heading" class="text-module__text__0GDob text-module__dark-grey__UFC18 text-module__medium__2Rl30 text-module__heading_6__u1KdJ heading-module__base__p-zaD heading-module__heading_6__-zrtS"><a data-testid="Body" href="/legal/" class="text-module__text__0GDob text-module__graphite__fZRmg text-module__medium__2Rl30 text-module__body__9d61E body-module__base__o--Cl body-module__body_alt__0ewNU nav-dropdown-module__section-link__Mvj6r">Legal</a></h2><ul class="nav-dropdown-module__subsections__ElxDL"><li><a data-testid="Body" href="/legal/government/" class="text-module__text__0GDob text-module__medium-grey__yZtlg text-module__regular__qJJtA text-module__small__sph8i body-module__base__o--Cl body-module__small_body__gOmDf nav-dropdown-module__subsection-link__T9-bB">Government</a></li><li><a data-testid="Body" href="/legal/legalindustry/" class="text-module__text__0GDob text-module__medium-grey__yZtlg text-module__regular__qJJtA text-module__small__sph8i body-module__base__o--Cl body-module__small_body__gOmDf nav-dropdown-module__subsection-link__T9-bB">Legal Industry</a></li><li><a data-testid="Body" href="/legal/litigation/" class="text-module__text__0GDob text-module__medium-grey__yZtlg text-module__regular__qJJtA text-module__small__sph8i body-module__base__o--Cl body-module__small_body__gOmDf nav-dropdown-module__subsection-link__T9-bB">Litigation</a></li><li><a data-testid="Body" href="/legal/transactional/" class="text-module__text__0GDob text-module__medium-grey__yZtlg text-module__regular__qJJtA text-module__small__sph8i body-module__base__o--Cl body-module__small_body__gOmDf nav-dropdown-module__subsection-link__T9-bB">Transactional</a></li><li><a data-testid="Body" href="/legal/us-supreme-court/" class="text-module__text__0GDob text-module__medium-grey__yZtlg text-module__regular__qJJtA text-module__small__sph8i body-module__base__o--Cl body-module__small_body__gOmDf nav-dropdown-module__subsection-link__T9-bB">US Supreme Court</a></li></ul></section><section data-testid="MoreDropdown" class="nav-dropdown-module__more-section-group__6-L2e nav-dropdown-module__has-children__Wpz3R"><h2 data-testid="Heading" class="text-module__text__0GDob text-module__dark-grey__UFC18 text-module__medium__2Rl30 text-module__heading_6__u1KdJ heading-module__base__p-zaD heading-module__heading_6__-zrtS"><a data-testid="Body" href="/commentary/" class="text-module__text__0GDob text-module__graphite__fZRmg text-module__medium__2Rl30 text-module__body__9d61E body-module__base__o--Cl body-module__body_alt__0ewNU nav-dropdown-module__section-link__Mvj6r">Commentary</a></h2><ul class="nav-dropdown-module__subsections__ElxDL"><li><a data-testid="Body" href="/commentary/breakingviews/" class="text-module__text__0GDob text-module__medium-grey__yZtlg text-module__regular__qJJtA text-module__small__sph8i body-module__base__o--Cl body-module__small_body__gOmDf nav-dropdown-module__subsection-link__T9-bB">Breakingviews</a></li><li><a data-testid="Body" href="/commentary/reuters-open-interest/" class="text-module__text__0GDob text-module__medium-grey__yZtlg text-module__regular__qJJtA text-module__small__sph8i body-module__base__o--Cl body-module__small_body__gOmDf nav-dropdown-module__subsection-link__T9-bB">ROI: Reuters Open Interest</a></li></ul></section><section data-testid="MoreDropdown" class="nav-dropdown-module__more-section-group__6-L2e nav-dropdown-module__has-children__Wpz3R"><h2 data-testid="Heading" class="text-module__text__0GDob text-module__dark-grey__UFC18 text-module__medium__2Rl30 text-module__heading_6__u1KdJ heading-module__base__p-zaD heading-module__heading_6__-zrtS"><a data-testid="Body" href="/technology/" class="text-module__text__0GDob text-module__graphite__fZRmg text-module__medium__2Rl30 text-module__body__9d61E body-module__base__o--Cl body-module__body_alt__0ewNU nav-dropdown-module__section-link__Mvj6r">Technology</a></h2><ul class="nav-dropdown-module__subsections__ElxDL"><li><a data-testid="Body" href="/technology/artificial-intelligence/" class="text-module__text__0GDob text-module__medium-grey__yZtlg text-module__regular__qJJtA text-module__small__sph8i body-module__base__o--Cl body-module__small_body__gOmDf nav-dropdown-module__subsection-link__T9-bB">Artificial Intelligence</a></li><li><a data-testid="Body" href="/technology/cybersecurity/" class="text-module__text__0GDob text-module__medium-grey__yZtlg text-module__regular__qJJtA text-module__small__sph8i body-module__base__o--Cl body-module__small_body__gOmDf nav-dropdown-module__subsection-link__T9-bB">Cybersecurity</a></li><li><a data-testid="Body" href="/technology/space/" class="text-module__text__0GDob text-module__medium-grey__yZtlg text-module__regular__qJJtA text-module__small__sph8i body-module__base__o--Cl body-module__small_body__gOmDf nav-dropdown-module__subsection-link__T9-bB">Space</a></li><li><a data-testid="Body" href="/technology/disrupted/" class="text-module__text__0GDob text-module__medium-grey__yZtlg text-module__regular__qJJtA text-module__small__sph8i body-module__base__o--Cl body-module__small_body__gOmDf nav-dropdown-module__subsection-link__T9-bB">Disrupted</a></li></ul></section><section data-testid="MoreDropdown" class="nav-dropdown-module__more-section-group__6-L2e"><h2 data-testid="Heading" class="text-module__text__0GDob text-module__dark-grey__UFC18 text-module__medium__2Rl30 text-module__heading_6__u1KdJ heading-module__base__p-zaD heading-module__heading_6__-zrtS"><a data-testid="Body" href="/investigations/" class="text-module__text__0GDob text-module__graphite__fZRmg text-module__medium__2Rl30 text-module__body__9d61E body-module__base__o--Cl body-module__body_alt__0ewNU nav-dropdown-module__section-link__Mvj6r">Investigations</a></h2></section><section data-testid="MoreDropdown" class="nav-dropdown-module__more-section-group__6-L2e nav-dropdown-module__has-children__Wpz3R"><h2 data-testid="Heading" class="text-module__text__0GDob text-module__dark-grey__UFC18 text-module__medium__2Rl30 text-module__heading_6__u1KdJ heading-module__base__p-zaD heading-module__heading_6__-zrtS"><a data-testid="Body" href="/sports/" class="text-module__text__0GDob text-module__graphite__fZRmg text-module__medium__2Rl30 text-module__body__9d61E body-module__base__o--Cl body-module__body_alt__0ewNU nav-dropdown-module__section-link__Mvj6r">Sports</a></h2><ul class="nav-dropdown-module__subsections__ElxDL"><li><a data-testid="Body" href="/sports/world-cup/" class="text-module__text__0GDob text-module__medium-grey__yZtlg text-module__regular__qJJtA text-module__small__sph8i body-module__base__o--Cl body-module__small_body__gOmDf nav-dropdown-module__subsection-link__T9-bB">World Cup</a></li><li><a data-testid="Body" href="/sports/athletics/" class="text-module__text__0GDob text-module__medium-grey__yZtlg text-module__regular__qJJtA text-module__small__sph8i body-module__base__o--Cl body-module__small_body__gOmDf nav-dropdown-module__subsection-link__T9-bB">Athletics</a></li><li><a data-testid="Body" href="/sports/baseball/" class="text-module__text__0GDob text-module__medium-grey__yZtlg text-module__regular__qJJtA text-module__small__sph8i body-module__base__o--Cl body-module__small_body__gOmDf nav-dropdown-module__subsection-link__T9-bB">Baseball</a></li><li><a data-testid="Body" href="/sports/basketball/" class="text-module__text__0GDob text-module__medium-grey__yZtlg text-module__regular__qJJtA text-module__small__sph8i body-module__base__o--Cl body-module__small_body__gOmDf nav-dropdown-module__subsection-link__T9-bB">Basketball</a></li><li><a data-testid="Body" href="/sports/cricket/" class="text-module__text__0GDob text-module__medium-grey__yZtlg text-module__regular__qJJtA text-module__small__sph8i body-module__base__o--Cl body-module__small_body__gOmDf nav-dropdown-module__subsection-link__T9-bB">Cricket</a></li><li><a data-testid="Body" href="/sports/cycling/" class="text-module__text__0GDob text-module__medium-grey__yZtlg text-module__regular__qJJtA text-module__small__sph8i body-module__base__o--Cl body-module__small_body__gOmDf nav-dropdown-module__subsection-link__T9-bB">Cycling</a></li><li><a data-testid="Body" href="/sports/formula1/" class="text-module__text__0GDob text-module__medium-grey__yZtlg text-module__regular__qJJtA text-module__small__sph8i body-module__base__o--Cl body-module__small_body__gOmDf nav-dropdown-module__subsection-link__T9-bB">Formula 1</a></li><li><a data-testid="Body" href="/sports/golf/" class="text-module__text__0GDob text-module__medium-grey__yZtlg text-module__regular__qJJtA text-module__small__sph8i body-module__base__o--Cl body-module__small_body__gOmDf nav-dropdown-module__subsection-link__T9-bB">Golf</a></li><li><a data-testid="Body" href="/sports/nfl/" class="text-module__text__0GDob text-module__medium-grey__yZtlg text-module__regular__qJJtA text-module__small__sph8i body-module__base__o--Cl body-module__small_body__gOmDf nav-dropdown-module__subsection-link__T9-bB">NFL</a></li><li><a data-testid="Body" href="/sports/nhl/" class="text-module__text__0GDob text-module__medium-grey__yZtlg text-module__regular__qJJtA text-module__small__sph8i body-module__base__o--Cl body-module__small_body__gOmDf nav-dropdown-module__subsection-link__T9-bB">NHL</a></li><li><a data-testid="Body" href="/sports/soccer/" class="text-module__text__0GDob text-module__medium-grey__yZtlg text-module__regular__qJJtA text-module__small__sph8i body-module__base__o--Cl body-module__small_body__gOmDf nav-dropdown-module__subsection-link__T9-bB">Soccer</a></li><li><a data-testid="Body" href="/sports/tennis/" class="text-module__text__0GDob text-module__medium-grey__yZtlg text-module__regular__qJJtA text-module__small__sph8i body-module__base__o--Cl body-module__small_body__gOmDf nav-dropdown-module__subsection-link__T9-bB">Tennis</a></li></ul></section><section data-testid="MoreDropdown" class="nav-dropdown-module__more-section-group__6-L2e"><h2 data-testid="Heading" class="text-module__text__0GDob text-module__dark-grey__UFC18 text-module__medium__2Rl30 text-module__heading_6__u1KdJ heading-module__base__p-zaD heading-module__heading_6__-zrtS"><a data-testid="Body" href="/science/" class="text-module__text__0GDob text-module__graphite__fZRmg text-module__medium__2Rl30 text-module__body__9d61E body-module__base__o--Cl body-module__body_alt__0ewNU nav-dropdown-module__section-link__Mvj6r">Science</a></h2></section><section data-testid="MoreDropdown" class="nav-dropdown-module__more-section-group__6-L2e nav-dropdown-module__has-children__Wpz3R"><h2 data-testid="Heading" class="text-module__text__0GDob text-module__dark-grey__UFC18 text-module__medium__2Rl30 text-module__heading_6__u1KdJ heading-module__base__p-zaD heading-module__heading_6__-zrtS"><a data-testid="Body" href="/lifestyle/" class="text-module__text__0GDob text-module__graphite__fZRmg text-module__medium__2Rl30 text-module__body__9d61E body-module__base__o--Cl body-module__body_alt__0ewNU nav-dropdown-module__section-link__Mvj6r">Lifestyle</a></h2><ul class="nav-dropdown-module__subsections__ElxDL"><li><a data-testid="Body" href="/lifestyle/culture-current/" class="text-module__text__0GDob text-module__medium-grey__yZtlg text-module__regular__qJJtA text-module__small__sph8i body-module__base__o--Cl body-module__small_body__gOmDf nav-dropdown-module__subsection-link__T9-bB">Culture Current</a></li></ul></section><section data-testid="MoreDropdown" class="nav-dropdown-module__more-section-group__6-L2e"><h2 data-testid="Heading" class="text-module__text__0GDob text-module__dark-grey__UFC18 text-module__medium__2Rl30 text-module__heading_6__u1KdJ heading-module__base__p-zaD heading-module__heading_6__-zrtS"><a data-testid="Body" href="/city-memo/" class="text-module__text__0GDob text-module__graphite__fZRmg text-module__medium__2Rl30 text-module__body__9d61E body-module__base__o--Cl body-module__body_alt__0ewNU nav-dropdown-module__section-link__Mvj6r">City Memo</a></h2></section></div><div class="nav-dropdown-module__group-container__B7ZaS"><section data-testid="MoreDropdown" class="nav-dropdown-module__more-section-group__6-L2e nav-dropdown-module__has-children__Wpz3R"><h2 data-testid="Heading" class="text-module__text__0GDob text-module__dark-grey__UFC18 text-module__medium__2Rl30 text-module__heading_6__u1KdJ heading-module__base__p-zaD heading-module__heading_6__-zrtS"><a data-testid="Body" href="/graphics/" class="text-module__text__0GDob text-module__graphite__fZRmg text-module__medium__2Rl30 text-module__body__9d61E body-module__base__o--Cl body-module__body_alt__0ewNU nav-dropdown-module__section-link__Mvj6r">Graphics</a></h2><ul class="nav-dropdown-module__subsections__ElxDL"><li><a data-testid="Body" href="/chart-of-the-week/" class="text-module__text__0GDob text-module__medium-grey__yZtlg text-module__regular__qJJtA text-module__small__sph8i body-module__base__o--Cl body-module__small_body__gOmDf nav-dropdown-module__subsection-link__T9-bB">Chart of the Week</a></li></ul></section><section data-testid="MoreDropdown" class="nav-dropdown-module__more-section-group__6-L2e"><h2 data-testid="Heading" class="text-module__text__0GDob text-module__dark-grey__UFC18 text-module__medium__2Rl30 text-module__heading_6__u1KdJ heading-module__base__p-zaD heading-module__heading_6__-zrtS"><a data-testid="Body" href="/pictures/" class="text-module__text__0GDob text-module__graphite__fZRmg text-module__medium__2Rl30 text-module__body__9d61E body-module__base__o--Cl body-module__body_alt__0ewNU nav-dropdown-module__section-link__Mvj6r">Pictures</a></h2></section><section data-testid="MoreDropdown" class="nav-dropdown-module__more-section-group__6-L2e"><h2 data-testid="Heading" class="text-module__text__0GDob text-module__dark-grey__UFC18 text-module__medium__2Rl30 text-module__heading_6__u1KdJ heading-module__base__p-zaD heading-module__heading_6__-zrtS"><a data-testid="Body" href="/wider-image/" class="text-module__text__0GDob text-module__graphite__fZRmg text-module__medium__2Rl30 text-module__body__9d61E body-module__base__o--Cl body-module__body_alt__0ewNU nav-dropdown-module__section-link__Mvj6r">Wider Image</a></h2></section><section data-testid="MoreDropdown" class="nav-dropdown-module__more-section-group__6-L2e nav-dropdown-module__has-children__Wpz3R"><h2 data-testid="Heading" class="text-module__text__0GDob text-module__dark-grey__UFC18 text-module__medium__2Rl30 text-module__heading_6__u1KdJ heading-module__base__p-zaD heading-module__heading_6__-zrtS"><a data-testid="Body" href="/podcasts/" class="text-module__text__0GDob text-module__graphite__fZRmg text-module__medium__2Rl30 text-module__body__9d61E body-module__base__o--Cl body-module__body_alt__0ewNU nav-dropdown-module__section-link__Mvj6r">Podcasts</a></h2><ul class="nav-dropdown-module__subsections__ElxDL"><li><a data-testid="Body" href="/podcasts/reuters-world-news/" class="text-module__text__0GDob text-module__medium-grey__yZtlg text-module__regular__qJJtA text-module__small__sph8i body-module__base__o--Cl body-module__small_body__gOmDf nav-dropdown-module__subsection-link__T9-bB">Reuters World News</a></li><li><a data-testid="Body" href="/podcasts/reuters-morning-bid/" class="text-module__text__0GDob text-module__medium-grey__yZtlg text-module__regular__qJJtA text-module__small__sph8i body-module__base__o--Cl body-module__small_body__gOmDf nav-dropdown-module__subsection-link__T9-bB">Reuters Morning Bid</a></li><li><a data-testid="Body" href="/podcasts/reuters-econ-world/" class="text-module__text__0GDob text-module__medium-grey__yZtlg text-module__regular__qJJtA text-module__small__sph8i body-module__base__o--Cl body-module__small_body__gOmDf nav-dropdown-module__subsection-link__T9-bB">Reuters Econ World</a></li><li><a data-testid="Body" href="/podcasts/on-assignment/" class="text-module__text__0GDob text-module__medium-grey__yZtlg text-module__regular__qJJtA text-module__small__sph8i body-module__base__o--Cl body-module__small_body__gOmDf nav-dropdown-module__subsection-link__T9-bB">On Assignment</a></li><li><a data-testid="Body" href="/podcasts/viewsroom/" class="text-module__text__0GDob text-module__medium-grey__yZtlg text-module__regular__qJJtA text-module__small__sph8i body-module__base__o--Cl body-module__small_body__gOmDf nav-dropdown-module__subsection-link__T9-bB">Viewsroom</a></li><li><a data-testid="Body" href="/podcasts/the-big-view/" class="text-module__text__0GDob text-module__medium-grey__yZtlg text-module__regular__qJJtA text-module__small__sph8i body-module__base__o--Cl body-module__small_body__gOmDf nav-dropdown-module__subsection-link__T9-bB">The Big View</a></li></ul></section><section data-testid="MoreDropdown" class="nav-dropdown-module__more-section-group__6-L2e"><h2 data-testid="Heading" class="text-module__text__0GDob text-module__dark-grey__UFC18 text-module__medium__2Rl30 text-module__heading_6__u1KdJ heading-module__base__p-zaD heading-module__heading_6__-zrtS"><a data-testid="Body" href="/live/" class="text-module__text__0GDob text-module__graphite__fZRmg text-module__medium__2Rl30 text-module__body__9d61E body-module__base__o--Cl body-module__body_alt__0ewNU nav-dropdown-module__section-link__Mvj6r">Live</a></h2></section><section data-testid="MoreDropdown" class="nav-dropdown-module__more-section-group__6-L2e"><h2 data-testid="Heading" class="text-module__text__0GDob text-module__dark-grey__UFC18 text-module__medium__2Rl30 text-module__heading_6__u1KdJ heading-module__base__p-zaD heading-module__heading_6__-zrtS"><a data-testid="Body" href="/fact-check/" class="text-module__text__0GDob text-module__graphite__fZRmg text-module__medium__2Rl30 text-module__body__9d61E body-module__base__o--Cl body-module__body_alt__0ewNU nav-dropdown-module__section-link__Mvj6r">Fact Check</a></h2></section><section data-testid="MoreDropdown" class="nav-dropdown-module__more-section-group__6-L2e"><h2 data-testid="Heading" class="text-module__text__0GDob text-module__dark-grey__UFC18 text-module__medium__2Rl30 text-module__heading_6__u1KdJ heading-module__base__p-zaD heading-module__heading_6__-zrtS"><a data-testid="Body" href="/video/" class="text-module__text__0GDob text-module__graphite__fZRmg text-module__medium__2Rl30 text-module__body__9d61E body-module__base__o--Cl body-module__body_alt__0ewNU nav-dropdown-module__section-link__Mvj6r">Video</a></h2></section><section data-testid="MoreDropdown" class="nav-dropdown-module__more-section-group__6-L2e nav-dropdown-module__has-children__Wpz3R"><h2 data-testid="Heading" class="text-module__text__0GDob text-module__dark-grey__UFC18 text-module__medium__2Rl30 text-module__heading_6__u1KdJ heading-module__base__p-zaD heading-module__heading_6__-zrtS"><a data-testid="Body" href="/media-center/" class="text-module__text__0GDob text-module__graphite__fZRmg text-module__medium__2Rl30 text-module__body__9d61E body-module__base__o--Cl body-module__body_alt__0ewNU nav-dropdown-module__section-link__Mvj6r">Media Center</a></h2><ul class="nav-dropdown-module__subsections__ElxDL"><li><a data-testid="Body" href="/media-center/announcements/" class="text-module__text__0GDob text-module__medium-grey__yZtlg text-module__regular__qJJtA text-module__small__sph8i body-module__base__o--Cl body-module__small_body__gOmDf nav-dropdown-module__subsection-link__T9-bB">Announcements</a></li><li><a data-testid="Body" href="/media-center/awards/" class="text-module__text__0GDob text-module__medium-grey__yZtlg text-module__regular__qJJtA text-module__small__sph8i body-module__base__o--Cl body-module__small_body__gOmDf nav-dropdown-module__subsection-link__T9-bB">Awards</a></li><li><a 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960w,https://www.reuters.com/resizer/v2/NF4PJ6Q7A5OOPBJO37MH7BOQQY.jpg?auth=e1d6aa9cdcb38222f6f7f1dbdad9306b3dafd5d430d10ff0f8a29a622e541179&width=1080&quality=80 1080w,https://www.reuters.com/resizer/v2/NF4PJ6Q7A5OOPBJO37MH7BOQQY.jpg?auth=e1d6aa9cdcb38222f6f7f1dbdad9306b3dafd5d430d10ff0f8a29a622e541179&width=1200&quality=80 1200w" sizes="(min-width: 1024px) 560px, (min-width: 1440px) 700px, 100vw" width="5500" height="3711" alt="Swearing-in ceremony for incoming Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh"></div></div><div data-testid="Body" class="text-module__text__0GDob text-module__dark-grey__UFC18 text-module__regular__qJJtA text-module__ultra_small__6-vhY body-module__full_width__kCIGb body-module__ultra_small_body__WelUC primary-image-module__caption__BFvVU"><span>U.S. President Donald Trump greets the new Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh after he was sworn in by U.S. Supreme Court Justice Clarence Thomas, in the East Room at the White House in... <a data-testid="Link" target="_blank" referrerpolicy="no-referrer-when-downgrade" href="https://www.reutersconnect.com/item/swearing-in-ceremony-for-incoming-federal-reserve-chair-kevin-warsh/dGFnOnJldXRlcnMuY29tLDIwMjY6bmV3c21sX1JDMkdFTEFTNklVQw%3D%3D/?utm_medium=rcom-article-media&utm_campaign=rcom-rcp-lead" rel="noopener" class="text-module__text__0GDob text-module__inherit-color__PhuPF text-module__inherit-font__1P1hv text-module__inherit-size__EyiQW link-module__link__INqxZ link-module__underline_default__-okuC link-module__with-icon__qlg76 collapsible-caption-module__license__CPQvV">Purchase Licensing<span><span class="link-module__suffix__ObiNY"> Rights</span><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" viewbox="0 0 32 32" aria-hidden="true" focusable="false" role="presentation" data-testid="NewTabSymbol" class="link-module__new-tab-symbol__d53s7 link-module__move-left__CCZH6 collapsible-caption-module__symbol__943UJ" fill="#666" width="0" height="0"><path fill="currentColor" d="M15 6c.6 0 1 .4 1 1s-.4 1-1 1H9c-.6 0-1 .4-1 1v14a1.1 1.1 0 0 0 .2.6c.1.2.4.4.8.4h14c.6 0 1-.4 1-1v-6c0-.6.4-1 1-1s1 .4 1 1v6a3 3 0 0 1-3 3H9a3 3 0 0 1-2.2-.9A3 3 0 0 1 6 23V9a3 3 0 0 1 3-3Zm10 0 .4.1.5.5.1.4v6c0 .6-.4 1-1 1s-1-.4-1-1V9.4l-5.3 5.3a1 1 0 0 1-.7.3 1 1 0 0 1-.7-.3 1 1 0 0 1 0-1.4L22.6 8H19c-.6 0-1-.4-1-1s.4-1 1-1Z"></path></svg><span style="border:0;clip:rect(0 0 0 0);clip-path:inset(50%);height:1px;margin:-1px;overflow:hidden;padding:0;position:absolute;width:1px;white-space:nowrap">, opens new tab</span></span></a></span> <span data-testid="Body" role="button" tabindex="0" data-react-aria-pressable="true" aria-pressed="false" class="text-module__text__0GDob text-module__dark-grey__UFC18 text-module__medium__2Rl30 text-module__inherit-size__EyiQW body-module__base__o--Cl body-module__ultra_small_body__WelUC collapsible-caption-module__button__8GvDd">Read more</span></div></figure></div><div class="article-body-module__content__bnXL1"><div data-testid="paragraph-0" class="text-module__text__0GDob text-module__dark-grey__UFC18 text-module__regular__qJJtA text-module__small__sph8i body-module__full_width__kCIGb body-module__small_body__gOmDf article-body-module__paragraph__Ts-yF">NEW YORK, Sept 16 (Reuters Breakingviews) - On Wednesday, U.S. Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh became his predecessor, Jerome Powell. Perhaps not in his own eyes or in the eyes of investors, but, crucially, to the White House that appointed him. The central bank announced an increase in the federal funds rate, and a clear intent to lower inflation, perhaps through further hikes. That won’t please President Trump, who thinks rates should be “1%, or less”. The administration’s campaign for easy money and against Federal Reserve independence is now likely to return in earnest.</div><div data-testid="element" class="article-body-module__element__5eCce"></div><div data-testid="paragraph-1" class="text-module__text__0GDob text-module__dark-grey__UFC18 text-module__regular__qJJtA text-module__small__sph8i body-module__full_width__kCIGb body-module__small_body__gOmDf article-body-module__paragraph__Ts-yF">In some respects, the administration’s pressure never ended. While the Fed’s independence won a reprieve when the <a data-testid="Link" referrerpolicy="no-referrer-when-downgrade" href="https://www.breakingviews.com/columns/breaking-view/only-fed-gets-to-celebrate-founding-us-principle-2026-06-29/" class="text-module__text__0GDob text-module__inherit-color__PhuPF text-module__inherit-font__1P1hv text-module__inherit-size__EyiQW link-module__link__INqxZ link-module__underline_default__-okuC">Supreme Court</a> ruled that officials could not be fired without cause, it faced other threats. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has waged a quixotic battle to lower U.S. yields since August. Bond buybacks of $2 billion or $4 billion apiece failed to change yields on $40 trillion in U.S. debt for long.</div><p data-testid="promo-box" class="text-module__text__0GDob text-module__dark-grey__UFC18 text-module__regular__qJJtA text-module__small__sph8i body-module__base__o--Cl body-module__small_body__gOmDf article-body-module__promo-box__hVl8h"> Sign up <a data-testid="Link" referrerpolicy="no-referrer-when-downgrade" href="undefined?location=article-paragraph&redirectUrl=%2Fcommentary%2Fbreakingviews%2Fwarshs-reluctant-turn-restarts-fed-war-2026-09-16%2F" class="text-module__text__0GDob text-module__inherit-color__PhuPF text-module__inherit-font__1P1hv text-module__inherit-size__EyiQW link-module__link__INqxZ link-module__underline_default__-okuC">here.</a></p><div data-testid="element" class="article-body-module__element__5eCce"></div><figure data-testid="graphic-0" class="article-body-module__element__5eCce article-body-module__graphics__mCT3Z"></figure><div data-testid="paragraph-2" class="text-module__text__0GDob text-module__dark-grey__UFC18 text-module__regular__qJJtA text-module__small__sph8i body-module__full_width__kCIGb body-module__small_body__gOmDf article-body-module__paragraph__Ts-yF">Warsh, channeling Powell, delivered two clear warnings to Bessent and other administration meddlers in his press conference Wednesday. He noted that his job was to formulate monetary policy, “and we’ll let the people that do trade policy and fiscal policy stay in their lane, too.” In case the point didn’t get across, he essentially paraphrased a recent criticism from hedge fund manager Stanley Druckenmiller, a former mentor he shares with Bessent. “I want to let them tell any story they wish,” Warsh said of bond market investors, who have sold off U.S. debt amid a deluge of AI-led investment and high commodity prices. Druckenmiller <a data-testid="Link" target="_blank" referrerpolicy="no-referrer-when-downgrade" href="https://www.wsj.com/opinion/let-the-bond-market-speak-81529d74" rel="noopener" class="text-module__text__0GDob text-module__inherit-color__PhuPF text-module__inherit-font__1P1hv text-module__inherit-size__EyiQW link-module__link__INqxZ link-module__underline_default__-okuC link-module__with-icon__qlg76">recently urged<svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" viewbox="0 0 32 32" aria-hidden="true" focusable="false" role="presentation" data-testid="NewTabSymbol" class="link-module__new-tab-symbol__d53s7"><path fill="currentColor" d="M15 6c.6 0 1 .4 1 1s-.4 1-1 1H9c-.6 0-1 .4-1 1v14a1.1 1.1 0 0 0 .2.6c.1.2.4.4.8.4h14c.6 0 1-.4 1-1v-6c0-.6.4-1 1-1s1 .4 1 1v6a3 3 0 0 1-3 3H9a3 3 0 0 1-2.2-.9A3 3 0 0 1 6 23V9a3 3 0 0 1 3-3Zm10 0 .4.1.5.5.1.4v6c0 .6-.4 1-1 1s-1-.4-1-1V9.4l-5.3 5.3a1 1 0 0 1-.7.3 1 1 0 0 1-.7-.3 1 1 0 0 1 0-1.4L22.6 8H19c-.6 0-1-.4-1-1s.4-1 1-1Z"></path></svg><span style="border:0;clip:rect(0 0 0 0);clip-path:inset(50%);height:1px;margin:-1px;overflow:hidden;padding:0;position:absolute;width:1px;white-space:nowrap">, opens new tab</span></a> Bessent to listen to the bond market rather than attempting to subdue it. Bessent pushed back, saying last week that he has “asymmetric information,” like the “house” in a casino. “You can bet against me if you want.”</div><div data-testid="element" class="article-body-module__element__5eCce"></div><div data-testid="paragraph-3" class="text-module__text__0GDob text-module__dark-grey__UFC18 text-module__regular__qJJtA text-module__small__sph8i body-module__full_width__kCIGb body-module__small_body__gOmDf article-body-module__paragraph__Ts-yF">Investors keep betting against Bessent, and yields rose after the Fed decision was announced. Warsh will begin to attract the attention Powell did when he didn’t follow Trump’s preferred course. Paradoxically, this might bolster Fed independence. Warsh is firmly in the job, with no legal path to removing him. Trump has no open spots on the Fed to fill, and won’t anytime soon. 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referrerpolicy="no-referrer-when-downgrade" href="/commentary/breakingviews/rate-hike-expectations-are-getting-out-hand-2026-09-16/" class="text-module__text__0GDob text-module__dark-grey__UFC18 text-module__inherit-font__1P1hv text-module__inherit-size__EyiQW link-module__link__INqxZ link-module__underline_on_hover__YTwYC"><span data-testid="TitleHeading" class="text-module__text__0GDob text-module__inherit-color__PhuPF text-module__medium__2Rl30 text-module__heading_6__u1KdJ heading-module__base__p-zaD heading-module__heading_6__-zrtS title-module__heading__ZrRzk">Rate-hike expectations are getting out of hand</span></a></div><figure class=" image-container no-caption story-card-module__area-media__N2Hg6" data-testid="MediaImage"><a data-testid="MediaImageLink" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1" referrerpolicy="no-referrer-when-downgrade" href="/commentary/breakingviews/rate-hike-expectations-are-getting-out-hand-2026-09-16/" class="text-module__text__0GDob 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heading-module__base__p-zaD heading-module__heading_6__-zrtS title-module__heading__ZrRzk">Grab’s wild shopping spree takes a sensible turn</span></a></div><figure class=" image-container no-caption story-card-module__area-media__N2Hg6" data-testid="MediaImage"><a data-testid="MediaImageLink" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1" referrerpolicy="no-referrer-when-downgrade" href="/commentary/breakingviews/grabs-wild-shopping-spree-takes-sensible-turn-2026-09-16/" class="text-module__text__0GDob text-module__dark-grey__UFC18 text-module__medium__2Rl30 text-module__default__R2Ckt link-module__link__INqxZ link-module__underline_default__-okuC image-module__container__dqGwP story-card-module__image-link__4wq06"><div data-testid="Image" class="image story-card-module__image__NNKq2"><div class="styles-module__image-container__E0mCm styles-module__cover__SgyOM styles-module__center_center__bzABO styles-module__apply-ratio__u0jXJ styles-module__transition__joucY" 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link-module__underline_on_hover__YTwYC link-module__inherit-line-height__1vd2c media-story-card-module__heading__xgKcP">China's brutal AI economics hold lessons for US</a></h3><span data-testid="Label" class="text-module__text__0GDob text-module__inherit-color__PhuPF text-module__light__ZYtNU text-module__default__R2Ckt label-module__label__Sv2H2 kicker_hero media-story-card-module__section__PyVDc"><a data-testid="Link" referrerpolicy="no-referrer-when-downgrade" href="/commentary/breakingviews/" class="text-module__text__0GDob text-module__inherit-color__PhuPF text-module__inherit-font__1P1hv text-module__inherit-size__EyiQW link-module__link__INqxZ link-module__underline_on_hover__YTwYC">Breakingviews<span style="border:0;clip:rect(0 0 0 0);clip-path:inset(50%);height:1px;margin:-1px;overflow:hidden;padding:0;position:absolute;width:1px;white-space:nowrap">category</span></a> · <time datetime="2026-09-16T22:00:24.346Z">September 16, 2026 · 10:00 PM UTC</time> · ago</span><p data-testid="Body" class="text-module__text__0GDob text-module__dark-grey__UFC18 text-module__regular__qJJtA text-module__large__03GSP body-module__base__o--Cl body-module__large_body__NQgnj media-story-card-module__description__DzXN2">Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei's calls to slow progress risk upending business models. For a glimpse of the future, labs can look to the People's Republic, where chip curbs, scarce capital and price wars mean firms like the $40 bln Z.AI must prioritise efficiency to survive.</p></div></div></li><li class="story-collection-module__list-item__nvJUz story-collection-module__story__A3dpi story-collection-module__default__k3Xt2 story-collection-module__with-spacing__OhP-U" id="3GYUHAIXNBJRVJEZEQEZE3DXDI" data-testid="one_hero_and_two_columns"><div data-testid="MediaStoryCard" class="media-story-card-module__hub__y3KsD story-card"><div class="media-story-card-module__placement-container__1ZSB1"><a href="https://www.reuters.com/commentary/reuters-open-interest/global-markets-trading-day-graphic-2026-09-16/" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1" referrerpolicy="no-referrer-when-downgrade"><div class="media-story-card-module__image-container__fJn9a"><div data-testid="Image" class="image"><div class="styles-module__image-container__E0mCm styles-module__cover__SgyOM 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text-module__dark-grey__UFC18 text-module__medium__2Rl30 text-module__heading_6__u1KdJ">Podcasts</span></a></li></ul></section></div><section data-testid="LinkGroup" class="site-footer-module__link-group__Hxt4R site-footer-module__hidden-mobile__5cjU9"><h3 data-testid="Heading" class="text-module__text__0GDob text-module__dark-grey__UFC18 text-module__light__ZYtNU text-module__heading_6__u1KdJ heading-module__base__p-zaD heading-module__heading_6_light__klgho link-group-module__label__mDGn2">Latest</h3><ul class="link-group-module__list__yrOzI link-group-module__vertical__vGvtx"><li class="link-group-module__item__Za3t6"><a data-testid="Link" target="_self" referrerpolicy="no-referrer-when-downgrade" href="/" class="text-module__text__0GDob text-module__dark-grey__UFC18 text-module__medium__2Rl30 text-module__default__R2Ckt link-module__link__INqxZ link-module__underline_on_hover__YTwYC link-group-module__link__BcHeN"><span data-testid="LinkGroupItem" class="text-module__text__0GDob text-module__dark-grey__UFC18 text-module__medium__2Rl30 text-module__heading_6__u1KdJ">Home</span></a></li><li class="link-group-module__item__Za3t6"><a data-testid="Link" target="_self" referrerpolicy="no-referrer-when-downgrade" href="/sitemap/authors/" class="text-module__text__0GDob text-module__dark-grey__UFC18 text-module__medium__2Rl30 text-module__default__R2Ckt link-module__link__INqxZ link-module__underline_on_hover__YTwYC link-group-module__link__BcHeN"><span data-testid="LinkGroupItem" class="text-module__text__0GDob text-module__dark-grey__UFC18 text-module__medium__2Rl30 text-module__heading_6__u1KdJ">Authors</span></a></li><li class="link-group-module__item__Za3t6"><a data-testid="Link" target="_self" referrerpolicy="no-referrer-when-downgrade" href="/sitemap/topics/" class="text-module__text__0GDob text-module__dark-grey__UFC18 text-module__medium__2Rl30 text-module__default__R2Ckt link-module__link__INqxZ link-module__underline_on_hover__YTwYC link-group-module__link__BcHeN"><span data-testid="LinkGroupItem" class="text-module__text__0GDob text-module__dark-grey__UFC18 text-module__medium__2Rl30 text-module__heading_6__u1KdJ">Topic Sitemap</span></a></li><li class="link-group-module__item__Za3t6"><a data-testid="Link" target="_self" referrerpolicy="no-referrer-when-downgrade" href="/archive/" class="text-module__text__0GDob text-module__dark-grey__UFC18 text-module__medium__2Rl30 text-module__default__R2Ckt link-module__link__INqxZ link-module__underline_on_hover__YTwYC link-group-module__link__BcHeN"><span data-testid="LinkGroupItem" class="text-module__text__0GDob text-module__dark-grey__UFC18 text-module__medium__2Rl30 text-module__heading_6__u1KdJ">Archive</span></a></li><li class="link-group-module__item__Za3t6"><a data-testid="Link" target="_self" referrerpolicy="no-referrer-when-downgrade" href="/sitemap/" class="text-module__text__0GDob text-module__dark-grey__UFC18 text-module__medium__2Rl30 text-module__default__R2Ckt link-module__link__INqxZ link-module__underline_on_hover__YTwYC link-group-module__link__BcHeN"><span data-testid="LinkGroupItem" class="text-module__text__0GDob text-module__dark-grey__UFC18 text-module__medium__2Rl30 text-module__heading_6__u1KdJ">Article Sitemap</span></a></li></ul></section><section data-testid="LinkGroup" class="site-footer-module__link-group__Hxt4R"><h3 data-testid="Heading" class="text-module__text__0GDob text-module__dark-grey__UFC18 text-module__light__ZYtNU text-module__heading_6__u1KdJ heading-module__base__p-zaD heading-module__heading_6_light__klgho link-group-module__label__mDGn2">Browse</h3><ul class="link-group-module__list__yrOzI link-group-module__vertical__vGvtx"><li class="link-group-module__item__Za3t6"><a data-testid="Link" target="_self" referrerpolicy="no-referrer-when-downgrade" href="/world/" class="text-module__text__0GDob text-module__dark-grey__UFC18 text-module__medium__2Rl30 text-module__default__R2Ckt link-module__link__INqxZ link-module__underline_on_hover__YTwYC link-group-module__link__BcHeN"><span data-testid="LinkGroupItem" class="text-module__text__0GDob text-module__dark-grey__UFC18 text-module__medium__2Rl30 text-module__heading_6__u1KdJ">World</span></a></li><li class="link-group-module__item__Za3t6"><a data-testid="Link" target="_self" referrerpolicy="no-referrer-when-downgrade" href="/business/" class="text-module__text__0GDob text-module__dark-grey__UFC18 text-module__medium__2Rl30 text-module__default__R2Ckt link-module__link__INqxZ link-module__underline_on_hover__YTwYC link-group-module__link__BcHeN"><span data-testid="LinkGroupItem" class="text-module__text__0GDob text-module__dark-grey__UFC18 text-module__medium__2Rl30 text-module__heading_6__u1KdJ">Business</span></a></li><li class="link-group-module__item__Za3t6"><a data-testid="Link" target="_self" referrerpolicy="no-referrer-when-downgrade" href="/markets/" class="text-module__text__0GDob text-module__dark-grey__UFC18 text-module__medium__2Rl30 text-module__default__R2Ckt link-module__link__INqxZ link-module__underline_on_hover__YTwYC link-group-module__link__BcHeN"><span data-testid="LinkGroupItem" class="text-module__text__0GDob text-module__dark-grey__UFC18 text-module__medium__2Rl30 text-module__heading_6__u1KdJ">Markets</span></a></li><li class="link-group-module__item__Za3t6"><a data-testid="Link" target="_self" referrerpolicy="no-referrer-when-downgrade" href="/sustainability/" class="text-module__text__0GDob text-module__dark-grey__UFC18 text-module__medium__2Rl30 text-module__default__R2Ckt link-module__link__INqxZ link-module__underline_on_hover__YTwYC link-group-module__link__BcHeN"><span data-testid="LinkGroupItem" class="text-module__text__0GDob text-module__dark-grey__UFC18 text-module__medium__2Rl30 text-module__heading_6__u1KdJ">Sustainability</span></a></li><li class="link-group-module__item__Za3t6"><a data-testid="Link" target="_self" referrerpolicy="no-referrer-when-downgrade" href="/legal/" class="text-module__text__0GDob text-module__dark-grey__UFC18 text-module__medium__2Rl30 text-module__default__R2Ckt link-module__link__INqxZ link-module__underline_on_hover__YTwYC link-group-module__link__BcHeN"><span data-testid="LinkGroupItem" class="text-module__text__0GDob text-module__dark-grey__UFC18 text-module__medium__2Rl30 text-module__heading_6__u1KdJ">Legal</span></a></li><li class="link-group-module__item__Za3t6"><a data-testid="Link" target="_self" referrerpolicy="no-referrer-when-downgrade" href="/breakingviews/" class="text-module__text__0GDob text-module__dark-grey__UFC18 text-module__medium__2Rl30 text-module__default__R2Ckt link-module__link__INqxZ link-module__underline_on_hover__YTwYC link-group-module__link__BcHeN"><span data-testid="LinkGroupItem" class="text-module__text__0GDob text-module__dark-grey__UFC18 text-module__medium__2Rl30 text-module__heading_6__u1KdJ">Breakingviews</span></a></li><li class="link-group-module__item__Za3t6"><a data-testid="Link" target="_self" referrerpolicy="no-referrer-when-downgrade" href="/technology/" class="text-module__text__0GDob text-module__dark-grey__UFC18 text-module__medium__2Rl30 text-module__default__R2Ckt link-module__link__INqxZ link-module__underline_on_hover__YTwYC link-group-module__link__BcHeN"><span data-testid="LinkGroupItem" class="text-module__text__0GDob text-module__dark-grey__UFC18 text-module__medium__2Rl30 text-module__heading_6__u1KdJ">Technology</span></a></li><li class="link-group-module__item__Za3t6"><a data-testid="Link" target="_self" referrerpolicy="no-referrer-when-downgrade" href="/investigations/" class="text-module__text__0GDob text-module__dark-grey__UFC18 text-module__medium__2Rl30 text-module__default__R2Ckt link-module__link__INqxZ link-module__underline_on_hover__YTwYC link-group-module__link__BcHeN"><span data-testid="LinkGroupItem" class="text-module__text__0GDob text-module__dark-grey__UFC18 text-module__medium__2Rl30 text-module__heading_6__u1KdJ">Investigations</span></a></li><li class="link-group-module__item__Za3t6"><a data-testid="Link" target="_self" referrerpolicy="no-referrer-when-downgrade" href="/sports/" class="text-module__text__0GDob text-module__dark-grey__UFC18 text-module__medium__2Rl30 text-module__default__R2Ckt link-module__link__INqxZ link-module__underline_on_hover__YTwYC link-group-module__link__BcHeN"><span data-testid="LinkGroupItem" class="text-module__text__0GDob text-module__dark-grey__UFC18 text-module__medium__2Rl30 text-module__heading_6__u1KdJ">Sports</span></a></li><li class="link-group-module__item__Za3t6"><a data-testid="Link" target="_self" referrerpolicy="no-referrer-when-downgrade" href="/science/" class="text-module__text__0GDob text-module__dark-grey__UFC18 text-module__medium__2Rl30 text-module__default__R2Ckt link-module__link__INqxZ link-module__underline_on_hover__YTwYC link-group-module__link__BcHeN"><span data-testid="LinkGroupItem" class="text-module__text__0GDob text-module__dark-grey__UFC18 text-module__medium__2Rl30 text-module__heading_6__u1KdJ">Science</span></a></li><li class="link-group-module__item__Za3t6"><a data-testid="Link" target="_self" referrerpolicy="no-referrer-when-downgrade" href="/lifestyle/" class="text-module__text__0GDob text-module__dark-grey__UFC18 text-module__medium__2Rl30 text-module__default__R2Ckt link-module__link__INqxZ link-module__underline_on_hover__YTwYC link-group-module__link__BcHeN"><span data-testid="LinkGroupItem" class="text-module__text__0GDob text-module__dark-grey__UFC18 text-module__medium__2Rl30 text-module__heading_6__u1KdJ">Lifestyle</span></a></li></ul></section><section data-testid="LinkGroup" class="site-footer-module__link-group__Hxt4R site-footer-module__hidden-mobile__5cjU9"><h3 data-testid="Heading" class="text-module__text__0GDob text-module__dark-grey__UFC18 text-module__light__ZYtNU text-module__heading_6__u1KdJ heading-module__base__p-zaD heading-module__heading_6_light__klgho link-group-module__label__mDGn2">Media</h3><ul class="link-group-module__list__yrOzI link-group-module__vertical__vGvtx"><li class="link-group-module__item__Za3t6"><div data-testid="Media" class="link-group-module__symbol__vLvQd media-module__symbol__O-kyE media-module__none__3jUM3"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" viewbox="0 0 16 11" aria-hidden="true" focusable="false" role="presentation" aria-labelledby="react-aria-_R_16i7la_"><path d="M15.6665,1.5665 C15.4665,1.433 15.2,1.5 15,1.633 L11.3335,4.233 L11.3335,2.1665 C11.3335,1.033 10.467,0.1665 9.3335,0.1665 L2,0.1665 C0.8665,0.1665 0,1.033 0,2.1665 L0,8.833 C0,9.9665 0.8665,10.833 2,10.833 L9.3335,10.833 C10.467,10.833 11.3335,9.9665 11.3335,8.833 L11.3335,6.7665 L14.9335,9.3665 C15.067,9.433 15.2,9.5 15.3335,9.5 C15.467,9.5 15.5335,9.5 15.667,9.4335 C15.867,9.3 16.0005,9.1 16.0005,8.8335 L16.0005,2.167 C16.0005,1.9005 15.867,1.7005 15.667,1.567 L15.6665,1.5665 Z M10,8.8335 C10,9.2335 9.7335,9.5 9.3335,9.5 L2,9.5 C1.6,9.5 1.3335,9.2335 1.3335,8.8335 L1.3335,2.167 C1.3335,1.767 1.6,1.5005 2,1.5005 L9.3335,1.5005 C9.7335,1.5005 10,1.767 10,2.167 L10,8.8335 Z M14.6665,7.5665 L11.8,5.5 L14.6665,3.4335 L14.6665,7.567 L14.6665,7.5665 Z"></path></svg></div><a data-testid="Link" target="_self" referrerpolicy="no-referrer-when-downgrade" href="https://www.reuters.com/video/" class="text-module__text__0GDob text-module__dark-grey__UFC18 text-module__medium__2Rl30 text-module__default__R2Ckt link-module__link__INqxZ link-module__underline_on_hover__YTwYC link-group-module__link__BcHeN"><span data-testid="LinkGroupItem" class="text-module__text__0GDob text-module__dark-grey__UFC18 text-module__medium__2Rl30 text-module__heading_6__u1KdJ">Videos</span></a></li><li class="link-group-module__item__Za3t6"><div data-testid="Media" class="link-group-module__symbol__vLvQd media-module__symbol__O-kyE media-module__none__3jUM3"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" viewbox="0 0 21 18" aria-hidden="true" focusable="false" role="presentation"><path d="M13.1256562,0 C13.3881562,0 13.6506562,0.17954776 13.825875,0.3597705 L15.3135937,2.69996625 L18.375,2.69996625 C19.8627187,2.69996625 21,3.8697266 21,5.3999325 L21,15.3000337 C21,16.8302396 19.8627187,18 18.375,18 L2.625,18 C1.13728125,18 0,16.8302396 0,15.3000337 L0,5.3999325 C0,3.8697266 1.13728125,2.69996625 2.625,2.69996625 L5.6877187,2.69996625 L7.1754375,0.3597705 C7.3506562,0.18022275 7.6131562,0 7.8756562,0 L13.1256562,0 Z M12.6013125,1.79952751 L8.3140312,1.79952751 L6.8263125,4.1397233 C6.6510937,4.319271 6.3885937,4.4994938 6.1260937,4.4994938 L2.6263125,4.4994938 C2.1013125,4.4994938 1.75153125,4.8592643 1.75153125,5.3992575 L1.75153125,15.2993588 C1.75153125,15.839352 2.1013125,16.1991225 2.6263125,16.1991225 L18.3763125,16.1991225 C18.9013125,16.1991225 19.2510937,15.839352 19.2510937,15.2993588 L19.2510937,5.3992575 C19.2510937,4.8592643 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type="application/javascript">window.Fusion=window.Fusion||{};Fusion.arcSite="reuters";Fusion.contextPath="/pf";Fusion.mxId="00000000";Fusion.deployment="387";Fusion.globalContent={"statusCode":200,"message":"Success","result":{"id":"OEK4LZZ5UFLP7PTZT4W6H5A3NQ","revision_id":"R5FUNGC2KZFVFNA6R5KJYMFWYE","canonical_url":"/commentary/breakingviews/warshs-reluctant-turn-restarts-fed-war-2026-09-16/","website":"reuters","web":"Warsh’s reluctant turn restarts Fed war","native":"Warsh’s reluctant turn restarts Fed war","headline_feature":"BREAKINGVIEWS","published":true,"published_time":"2026-09-16T21:17:47.675Z","article_type":"Standard","display_newsletter_signup":true,"content_code":"premium","source":{"name":"Reuters","original_name":"Reuters"},"content_description":{"commentary":true,"type":"By","name_2":["Gabriel Rubin"]},"additional_properties":{"article_properties":{"place":"NEW YORK"},"advisory_properties":{"advisory":"The author is a Reuters Breakingviews columnist. 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Perhaps not in his own eyes or in the eyes of investors, but, crucially, to the White House that appointed him. The central bank announced an increase in the federal funds rate, and a clear intent to lower inflation, perhaps through further hikes. That won’t please President Trump, who thinks rates should be “1%, or less”. The administration’s campaign for easy money and against Federal Reserve independence is now likely to return in earnest.","type":"paragraph"},"content_elements":[{"content":"On Wednesday, U.S. Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh became his predecessor, Jerome Powell. Perhaps not in his own eyes or in the eyes of investors, but, crucially, to the White House that appointed him. The central bank announced an increase in the federal funds rate, and a clear intent to lower inflation, perhaps through further hikes. That won’t please President Trump, who thinks rates should be “1%, or less”. The administration’s campaign for easy money and against Federal Reserve independence is now likely to return in earnest.","type":"paragraph"},{"content":"In some respects, the administration’s pressure never ended. While the Fed’s independence won a reprieve when the <a href=\"https://www.breakingviews.com/columns/breaking-view/only-fed-gets-to-celebrate-founding-us-principle-2026-06-29/\">Supreme Court</a> ruled that officials could not be fired without cause, it faced other threats. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has waged a quixotic battle to lower U.S. yields since August. Bond buybacks of $2 billion or $4 billion apiece failed to change yields on $40 trillion in U.S. debt for long.","type":"paragraph"},{"id":"egvbgynwdpq","type":"graphic","url":"https://www.reuters.com/graphics/BRV-BRV/egvbgynwdpq/index.html","title":"Fed heads for the hills","slugline":"BRV-BRV/","description":"Line chart showing the federal funds rate and the yield on two-year Treasury notes, over time.","byline":"Reuters Staff","graphic_type":"interactive","resizer_url":"https://www.reuters.com/resizer/v2/https%3A%2F%2Fwww.reuters.com%2Fgraphics%2FBRV-BRV%2Fegvbgynwdpq%2Findex.html_2.jpg?auth=9f8bebb8f7882d5bf91aa4fc80a376e7f686d02f16c09759b1f21223d9a08d84","preview_image":{"url":"https://www.reuters.com/graphics/BRV-BRV/egvbgynwdpq/index.html_2.jpg"},"embed":{"declaration":"<iframe title=\"Fed heads for the hills\" aria-label=\"Reuters interactive chart\" id=\"datawrapper-chart-f6zjH\" src=\"https://www.reuters.com/graphics/BRV-BRV/egvbgynwdpq/media-embed.html\" scrolling=\"no\" frameborder=\"0\" style=\"width: 0; min-width: 100% !important; border: none;\" height=\"455\"></iframe>\n <script type=\"text/javascript\">!function(){\"use strict\";window.addEventListener(\"message\",(function(a){if(void 0!==a.data[\"datawrapper-height\"])for(var e in a.data[\"datawrapper-height\"]){var t=document.getElementById(\"datawrapper-chart-\"+e)||document.querySelector(\"iframe[src*='\"+e+\"']\");t&&(t.style.height=a.data[\"datawrapper-height\"][e]+\"px\")}}))}();\n <\/script>"},"topic_codes":[{"rcs_id":"M:NT","n2000":["MTGFX"],"short_name":"Graphics"}]},{"content":"Warsh, channeling Powell, delivered two clear warnings to Bessent and other administration meddlers in his press conference Wednesday. He noted that his job was to formulate monetary policy, “and we’ll let the people that do trade policy and fiscal policy stay in their lane, too.” In case the point didn’t get across, he essentially paraphrased a recent criticism from hedge fund manager Stanley Druckenmiller, a former mentor he shares with Bessent. “I want to let them tell any story they wish,” Warsh said of bond market investors, who have sold off U.S. debt amid a deluge of AI-led investment and high commodity prices. Druckenmiller <a href=\"https://www.wsj.com/opinion/let-the-bond-market-speak-81529d74\" target=\"_blank\">recently urged</a> Bessent to listen to the bond market rather than attempting to subdue it. Bessent pushed back, saying last week that he has “asymmetric information,” like the “house” in a casino. “You can bet against me if you want.”","type":"paragraph"},{"content":"Investors keep betting against Bessent, and yields rose after the Fed decision was announced. Warsh will begin to attract the attention Powell did when he didn’t follow Trump’s preferred course. Paradoxically, this might bolster Fed independence. Warsh is firmly in the job, with no legal path to removing him. Trump has no open spots on the Fed to fill, and won’t anytime soon. The Fed war has flared again, but the central bank retains its advantage.","type":"paragraph"},{"content":"Follow Gabriel Rubin on <a href=\"https://bsky.app/profile/gaberubin.bsky.social\" target=\"_blank\">Bluesky</a> and <a href=\"https://www.linkedin.com/in/gabriel-rubin-792158a8/\" target=\"_blank\">LinkedIn</a>.","type":"paragraph"},{"type":"context-news","items":["The Federal Open Market Committee raised the target rate for federal funds by a quarter percentage point to 3.75-4.00% on September 16.","Federal Reserve officials expect one more interest rate increase this year and expect to hold steady in 2027, quarterly projections released after their latest policy meeting showed."],"title":"Context 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bulwark","description":"The leading AI chipmaker is using its vast cash hoard to prop up customers and forestall rivals. In this Viewsroom debate, Breakingviews columnists discuss whether it’s enough to avoid displacement by highly motivated upstarts.","duration":1161.83,"transcript_data":{"transcript":"The views expressed on this podcast are those of the participants, not of Reuters News. When OpenAI releases a new version of ChatGPT, industry talk tends to focus on how many NVIDIA chips it took to make it. At the latest count, it was 100,000, and that was the release of GPT 6. That NVIDIA's products are widely understood to be a barometer of AI's complexity speaks to how essential the chip maker, run by Jensen Huang, has become. At over $5 trillion, it is the largest company in the world. It's products are used by every AI company. And this gold rush has been fantastically lucrative. At the last quarter, it generated $21 billion of free cash flow. And Huang is not timid about using this cash to seal his dominance even further. From taking stakes in his own customers to setting up a supposed $500 billion financing scheme, NVIDIA has remained so ubiquitous that it might anchor a whole new derivative market based on its computational prowess. What is this juggernaut up to and how sustainable is it? And that's what we're digging into in today's ViewsRoom. I'm Aimee Donnellan and I'm Jonathan Guilford, and this is The ViewsRoom, your weekly dive into the biggest stories in finance, economics, and politics. And Aimee, like you said, NVIDIA is one of the biggest stories going at the moment. This company, you know, kind of came out of nowhere, dethroned Apple. It's the largest company in the world, the biggest tech player, the most important provider of the most important product for basically the most important industrial push that we've seen in our lifetimes. And it's just like, it's crazy because I remember, you know, when I was younger, like NVIDIA It was sort of this, and it was always, you know, important to a certain extent, but it made these niche-y products for, like, people playing video games and all this kind of stuff. And then the crypto boom happened. Turned out NVIDIA's graphics processing units were kind of weirdly suitable for mining Bitcoin and all of this. And then it turns out, okay, so what else requires a ton of really weird, like, lots of super simple computations, but all done at once? Turns out, again, AI needs that, and NVIDIA's chips were perfect for that. Yes, it's sort of a it's sort of a perfect company to look at, I think, when you think about AI and the valuations that we're seeing, and not least because we're expecting some fairly significant IPOs in the coming weeks or months. But I think we should bring in our guest, Karen Kwok, who has been looking, who's even moved to New York since the last time we spoke to her at the ViewsRoom. So, Karen, I hope you're settled in very well over there. We miss you terribly. Oh, thank you. So you're very lucky. So Karen, as I said, you've been writing so much about this and the numbers sort of almost seem like just hard to sort of imagine how big the numbers are. But you have really been digging into some of the some of the ways that we could be thinking about NVIDIA, what all these numbers mean. So how should we be thinking about this chipmaker and just this unbelievable free cash flow generation, its dominance, how safe that dominance is? I mean, if you look at the last quarterly results that they released two weeks ago, it's like about two weeks ago, they're actually, their position has not changed at all, right? Like they basically came out with a really robust earnings and even forecast that their revenue in 2028 could grow another 70%, which the market doesn't expect it. And if you look at like analyst forecasts right now, analysts expect NVIDIA's revenue is going to hit a trillion in 2030. And yeah, I mean, and then their gross profit margin has grown up from 60% to 75%. So it's just they're just a juggerknot that keep growing and seems like it doesn't have any threats coming through them at all. And if you look at Jensen as well he himself is a very charming character he has a very charming character he almost likes another Elon Musk and if if you look at all the social media, That's debatable, it's debatable weather Elon Musk is charming or not. Yeah, or maybe he's more favorable. Also a diplomat right like he's very good at like um uh discussing with uh or arguing with the government and trying to get the nvidia chips to ship back to back to shipping to china again although china whether or not china will use it is another question but yeah so he seems to be in a very formidable position at the moment. Right. And I mean, obviously, Jensen, it's sort of like this almost comic book character at this point, right? He's sort of, I guess, trademark leather jacket and whatnot, which I have to admit, I've been almost surprised that I haven't seen other people trying to pull that off a lot like the Steve Jobs turtleneck. Um, but I... But it's interesting, right, because he is not some softball friendly guy who's just sort of going along to getting along. And like you said, like he lobbies the government very hard. And that's, you know, not just about whether NVIDIA chips can be sold in other jurisdictions, including China. It's also about like immigration policy and all this stuff. Like he's sort of this man for all seasons now because NVIDIA is so important and it sits atop like this AI boom upon which like the U.S. government has kind of bet all of its chips. Right. Metaphorical chips in that sense. And I just—I wonder because, like, that also goes into NVIDIA's business practices. Right because it's not just they're happy to sit there and sell these chips and wait for somebody else to come along and start competing with them like that those tens of billions of dollars of free cash flow that is generating every quarter like he's using that to help Prop up Nvidia's dominance, and, like, invest in customers and all that kind of stuff, right? Yeah, exactly. So, I mean, obviously, you can from what they're doing right now, you kind of think that, oh, maybe they're a little bit threatened because like they have been investing in like all the whole AI ecosystem from startups to their like downstream, upstream customers. And like i have a number that from the bank of america analysts like say that as of august like they have uh invested 70 billion dollars of direct equity investment and that is not that hasn't included like the amount of debt or backstop that they have agreed on and so on so yeah so they're trying to invest the ai ecosystem to lock it in to make sure that to park you can say some people would say it's Fender financing and Circular financing, but you can see that NVIDIA is trying to pop up and help his customers, their industry, in order to keep buying the expensive GPUs that they're selling, basically. Right. And it's like becoming more and more intensive with each new round. Right. Because it's not like you can say, oh, anybody who gets a thousand NVIDIA chips or whatever, they can just like start up and become their own model maker. You have like, what is it we have right now? So we have like OpenAI and SoftBank and Oracle and whatnot is still finishing off like the big campus that they have in Texas. And they're supposed to bring like 400,000 of these things online. In the end, you have like Anthropic, you know, striking a deal with SpaceX, which has like 500,000 chips and all this kind of stuff. Like the numbers are just going to keep getting bigger and bigger, right? Like people always need more and more chips because the models are getting more and more complicated. Yeah, I mean, and also, like, NVIDIA's chips is crucial to train models. Like, even though, like, you can see right now, there's, like, Google, Amazon, like, An NVIDIA's customer trying to come in and design their own chips, OpenAI, and so on. But these chips are not necessarily replaceable to trained models. Most likely, they are actually used to, for inferencing, which is, like, to run a trained model. So when it comes to advancing artificial intelligence, you still need NVIDIA chips most of the time. So, yeah, I mean, even though you hear like a lot of startups as well coming in and say that, oh, we are offering like a smaller chip rack, like smaller than NVIDIA so that usual customer can afford it or more power efficient. People still go for NVIDIA chips because it's still like the most powerful ones at the moment to train models. And on that, Karen, because you mentioned obviously startups, but I mean, when it comes to AI, there is still obviously this very big competition between the US and China. Our colleague Robin Mack has been writing a lot about the different types of companies that are also looking to design chips. Do you think that there is any competition for NVIDIA in terms of China, as in cheaper, better, the way that China tends to go with AI? So, so far, as we read and hear the conversation is that China is still catching up. Like, you can see, like, some headlines saying that, like, DeepSeek, you know, the other Chinese open source AI model maker, they are using Huawei chips at the moment for some of its training. But it's still not like as good as like nvidia's and it's even like some of the generation that you see right now that released by huawei is uh like as good as like nvidia chips like released four years ago so in terms of like capability china is catching up but it's still not there yet And also like there are two parts of chip chip making industry one is designing and the other manufacturing for designing they might be trying to catching up but for manufacturing to go into scales is still a very difficult journey and they still require a lot of subsidies from the Government and at the same time like like there's a lot of chatter like around like oh actually US is helping China to to become more independent actually because by like not shipping to China it will push China further into developing their own chips so yeah so you can see that direction going but you but they're still trying to catching up especially when they don't have like these chip making machines that are produced by ASML that allow them to create these chips basically. Right. And it's interesting though, Because NVIDIA is, essentially, I almost think of it as, like, this tax on AI progress, to a certain extent. Like you said, they make a 75% gross margin. They're fantastically profitable. Everybody kind of just has to be a price taker because these chips are in such short supply and everyone's competing for them so much. Obviously, if the whole AI thing were to fall over, which frankly feels like less and less likely these days, But if like the whole AI thing were to fall over, that would upset the Apple car and presumably nvidia would suffer and so on but as long as like this wheel keeps spinning I mean is there anything else that can really affect nvidia like is it just a matter of oh you know a bunch of these Um investments that they've made come unglued and so a bunch of the customers they were propping up maybe they don't uh aren't able to compete as vigorously in the market and so there are fewer buyers and so essentially it comes down to like open ai being a monopoly or something like i'm Just trying to think about like what is what is the downside case here The downside case is if, I don't know, like, it's really hard to say. I guess, like, if OpenAI or Anthropic's growth slows down, it would trigger, like, a sentiment effect. Maybe, like, that's, like, people will start doubting the rally and trigger the stock markets to come down. But at the moment, most of the people say that the demand is definitely there. It's just, like, you don't have enough infrastructure. So you don't have enough GPU you don't have enough data center and so that's why this like like tight like supply demand like tension will remain there that like people still will go and crave for GPUs and from NVIDIA and so on but at the same time you can see that like NVIDIA is doing a lot of things right now like they were buying a hacking vase last week which is like this open source ai models which can see like they're trying to like like help like boost this like open source like industry in order to encourage because you know in in order to encourage more nvidia chips usage because like the more open source you use the less you rely on Open AI and Anthropic and the more people will go for more chips and more data centers right so yeah you can see that they're trying to do all sorts of way to trigger that and to make sure that the market doesn't collapse. For now, don't see that happening, but we will see. Well, maybe if the businesses realize that, oh, AI is not in use anymore, there's not enough return on investment, Maybe they will stop. But at the moment, we don't see that. Because that's what I was sort of thinking about. Right. So I think if you think about I mean, it's very hard to compare AI to anything else because there has never been anything like this. But if you think about like think of a company like Nova Nordisk, so 600 billion valuation was making this product that everyone wanted and it just seemed like the sky was the limit. And then a very fierce competitor came along with a better version and then the prices started to come down and then that valuation just completely crumbles. But is it basically what you're saying is that that is very unlikely just given the quality of what they do The you know how sophisticated they are versus everybody else for now the gap is kind of too big for that to happen at the moment. Yeah, I think so. I hear some people are saying that there are some, like the AI labs, they were building their own chips because they just couldn't get their hands enough to NVIDIA's GPU because they couldn't produce enough. So at the moment, it seems like the technology edge, NVIDIA is the way ahead of others, to be honest. I mean, just to round this out, so my favorite topic obviously is Apollo Global Management and Blackstone and these guys, like the very boring finance guys. Who isn't? Yes, I know. It's it's we love to talk about them here on the ViewRoom um and i mean like because it's interesting that whole private equity private credit ecosystem is really important to nvidia at this point right because we had you wrote about um uh i mean we've both written about um The big announcement that the Huang made he was kind of like sat around a table with Larry Fink and uh like Jon Gray. and all these other guys like uh announcing like this 500 billion dollar financing thing which is you know kind of from what we gathered it's more about just sort of systematizing and making it easier to finance and video chips for buyers. So, like, you don't need to be a Microsoft or an Amazon or whatever to be able to, like, actually raise the debt to be able to buy these things. And then you also wrote about... there's now, we see, like, the rise of compute futures. So people essentially like making derivatives bets on what will the price of an n18 you know an h100 chip be for one hour in like two years from now and it's like i was wondering if you could help us think about a little bit about just like like is that also like a part of nvidia kind of cementing It's dominance, or like, becoming like the vanilla option or something in, in AI. Yeah, definitely. Right. Like, well, one of the things that Jensen likes to talk about NVIDIA chip these days is that NVIDIA chips is fungible. Like it's like lots of value remain to it, which kind of seems like true. Like a lot of the older chips that they have is still out in the market. And, like, that value per hour is still, like, going up sometimes. I mean, it really depends on the demand situation. But you can still see there's like value of that like the depreciation that people are worried about like chips will depreciate quickly it's it's not happening yet right so By that right is like if there's an old like a 100 chip sitting in the data center somewhere maybe i don't know like Open AI or whoever was renting it for a while they're not renting it anymore there's still somebody else who can find value right because like everybody knows how to use an nvidia gpu even if you know they don't necessarily know how to use like a custom amazon chip or a custom google chip or whatever right. Exactly. So that's the incentive for them to say, oh, you know what, because like the financier, like Blackstone, Apollo, they clearly understand like the value of how these chips goes and how what's the ROI, whats the return. So they can, it's easier for them to finance them, right? So, and in order to finance them, you also think about like, what if these chips one day, the users are not able to use it? Like, what will you do And through financing you can like shift it to another customers and so on and this is a way to keep like the infinity chip circle cycle like keep running and i think that's the that's how they're going to cement it and by having this derivative which is the future contracts which is another way for them to um smoothen out the volatility of the gpu prices as well because at the moment like an hour of h100 that used by a hyperscaler is seven dollar an hour while like like um like one that's not non-hyperscaler like neoclouds is actually two dollars so there's like very differences in terms of like different gpus and different location also come they come from different locations different power usage so it's very hard to find like a value a unified value for like gpu and so having these kind of derivative will help like make nvidia chips easier to use in financial markets, and cement it's positioned as, like, a tradable asset, basically. Right. So I guess we're getting closer to like this one true price for an NVIDIA chip, right? And I know it's interesting because everything that you've said here, it just sounds like, well, NVIDIA are just going to keep rolling forever and ever. And as journalists, we're obviously pretty skeptical about the idea of, Oh, there's this, like, good story for one company, and they can just stay on top forever, because you look at, like, every titanic, you know, seeming monopoly. In history, and they do eventually fall But like you look these days and you look at Apple and it's like well people kind of thought like oh you know the iPhone is going to get commoditized and all this kind of stuff and then they just built all of this stuff around it all of these services All you know their own chips all this kind of stuff and it created something that seems like a lot more durable it sounds like kind of what you're saying essentially is nvidia is gonna just kind of follow that path maybe which we will have to see um but for now um Karen thank you so much for joining us on The ViewsRoom. Great. Thanks for having me. Thanks for tuning in. This podcast was produced by Sheryl Peña in New York and Gregory Garner in Toronto. You can check out a new episode of The ViewsRoom every Thursday and don't forget to tune in to our sister show The Big View every Tuesday as well as all the other great podcasts from the Reuters team To get in touch with feedback, questions and ideas please email us at breakingviews-podcasts@tr.com. That's breakingviews-podcasts@tr.com. If you liked what you heard, Please rate the show and leave us review. Breaking Views subscribers get access to all our views on the biggest stories in business and finance as they break every day on breakingviews.com. Or you can always sample some of our insights at Reuters.com."},"published_time":"2026-09-10T06:13:08Z","updated_time":"2026-09-10T06:13:14Z","thumbnail":{"url":"https://ajo.prod.reuters.tv/api/v2/img/6aa2483fe4b01915ce4b0d0b","caption":"The leading AI chipmaker is using its vast cash hoard to prop up customers and forestall rivals. In this Viewsroom debate, Breakingviews columnists discuss whether it’s enough to avoid displacement by highly motivated upstarts.","type":"image","resizer_url":"https://ajo.prod.reuters.tv/api/v2/img/6aa2483fe4b01915ce4b0d0b"},"source":{"hls":"https://ajo.prod.reuters.tv/v3/playlist/787619/master.m3u8"},"channels":[{"id":"Breakingviews","name":"Breakingviews","regions":["UK","US"]},{"id":"HPUS","name":"RCOM Homepage US","regions":["US"]}],"advert_info":{"advert_params":[{"key":"adfriendly","value":true}],"advert_zone":"/4735792/reuters.com"},"meta_data":[{"key":"link","value":"tag:reuters.com,2026:newsml_RW124708092026RP1:4"},{"key":"byline","value":"VARIOUS"},{"key":"hidden","value":"false"},{"key":"region","value":"Remote"},{"key":"dateline","value":"Reuters, Reuters, SEP 10"},{"key":"lmp-feed","value":"lp"},{"key":"copyright","value":"(c) 2026 Thomson Reuters, unless otherwise identified. Full statement available at https://www.thomsonreuters.com/en/policies/copyright.html"},{"key":"package-mood","value":"Neutral"},{"key":"package-notes","value":"Breakingviews, BV, Viewsroom, Aimee Donnellan, Jonathan Guilford"},{"key":"package-format","value":"Other"},{"key":"publisher-name","value":"reuters.com"},{"key":"upstream-title","value":"Nvidia’s $5 trln bulwark"},{"key":"external-asset-id","value":"285_RW124708092026RP1"},{"key":"package-no-social","value":"Yes"},{"key":"package-restrictions","value":"FOR REUTERS PLATFORMS ONLY. For Reuters customers only."},{"key":"upstream-description","value":"The leading AI chipmaker is using its vast cash hoard to prop up customers and forestall rivals. In this Viewsroom debate, Breakingviews columnists discuss whether it’s enough to avoid displacement by highly motivated upstarts."},{"key":"upstream-channel-code","value":"vty454"}],"usn":"RW124708092026RP1"},{"id":"RW944901092026RP1","type":"video","subtype":"application/x-mpegURL","external_id":"RW944901092026RP1","title":"Globetrotting banks are back","description":"After years of post-crisis retrenchment, the likes of Banco Santander and JPMorgan are again expanding across borders. In this week’s Viewsroom, Breakingviews columnists debate whether they’re just recreating pre-2008 risks.","duration":1384.93,"transcript_data":{"transcript":"The views expressed on this podcast are those of the participants, not of Reuters News. For years, investors treated global banks with suspicion. After the 2008 financial crisis, overseas expansion looked more like a risk than a growth strategy. Banks like Royal Bank of Scotland, now Natwest expanded aggressively before 2008. And then needed bank bailouts. The lesson for many investors was simple. The more countries a bank operates in the more things that can go wrong. So, banks pulled back. When Jane Fraser became CEO of Citigroup, she began shrinking its international footprint. HSBC also retreated, and actually some investors even pushed for a breakup. Meanwhile, more domestically focused lenders like Lloyds in the UK and CaixaBank in Spain often commanded higher valuations. Going global seemed like a losing bet, but that may be changing. Investors are starting to see the potential benefits in a broader international operation. And some lenders are again looking beyond their home markets. So that's what we're looking into the ViewsRoom today. Can banks expand across the globe without repeating the mistakes of the past? I am Aimee Donnellan and I'm Jonathan Guilford. And this is The ViewsRoom, your weekly dive into the biggest stories in politics, economics, and finance. And Aimee, yeah, it's interesting to start with Jane Fraser. Right? Because that was a semi-painful experience. I mean, pulling out of the operations in Mexico in particular, it was like a will they won't lay about an IPO, a sale process, and so on. These were not costless measures. And Citi especially was floundering at the time with various operational issues internally in the US. It was kind of like a story of weakness across the board. But really, that story of internationalization and globalization, despite the first and second Trump administrations, has really continued unabated. Right? And especially you look at private wealth, which is a huge growth area for the Goldman's, the Morgans, etcetera, of the world. Asia is really the rising force there. And we've seen that ramified through a bunch of markets. It affects the private equity operators It affects the private credit folks. It affects everyone. So just the global nexus of wealth is spreading and becoming more omnipresent in all these regions and it's always going to be a draw for banks to serve that wherever it is right Yes. And I just sort of wonder, is it a sort of like risk on that you're seeing like across the globe now that that's changed? Because as we said, the Jane Fraser situation was 2021. So that was five years ago. HSBC was a few years ago as well. But now we're starting to see banks doing different things. I think we saw BNP Paribas, Liam Proud, our guest can tell us more about this, buying a stake in an Asian bank as well. So I think there's some interesting things to draw on and not least M&A. And I think maybe investors may have these, like 2008 is so far away that maybe they just kind of think that they've learned their lessons. Yeah. You are old Aimee. You're unk if you mention 2008. Nobody even knows what Lehman Brothers is anymore. Do you know that was the beginning of my journalistic career. I think I started in July of 2008. So I had like, I just had a baptism of fire in the financial markets. But yes, I do agree with you. It is like, it's a really long time ago. But at the same time, we're still dealing with the ramifications of that, right? As in, it was only relatively recently that some banks actually got out of state hands, after all that time. So yeah, let's bring in Liam Proud. Our listeners will be very well versed with Liam but he is an associate editor in London who has covered banks for a long time So Liam you're very very welcome Great to be here again. So Liam, you were talking recently about an investment banker who kind of sets you homework about how to think about banks that are kind of global in reach, that are quite sprawling versus the ones that are more domestic. So can you talk us through, I guess, why you started thinking about this idea? Yeah, so it was on my mind, I think, because NatWest, which used to be called Royal Bank of Scotland, it used to be the biggest bank in the world before 2008, and then spectacularly failed and needed a bailout. You know, the bank that has descended from that bank really retrenched back into the UK after 2008, and we saw them recently sort of slightly start growing their US operations again. And it it made me think of a lot of conversations i've had with bank ceos and advisors to bank ceos over the years and how this sort of received wisdom after 2008 which was the focusing on your home market in banking was just the way to go that received wisdom started i think fraying and crumbling a little bit a few years ago and i think it's kind of starting to go to reverse now and i think you're seeing all kinds of indicators some in the in the data some in the kind of you know the anecdotal conversations that we have and a few kind of bits of deal making and expansion That actually tell you that you know cross-border global banking is back again so the the homework that you referenced there this is this is someone this is a you know what they call a financial institutions group banker or fig banker which you know in industry jargon for a banker who advises other banks um and this was several years ago and i was asking a lot of people about banco santander at the time which is a very big spanish bank um it's um very cross-border has operations in brazil mexico europe um you know continental europe uk united states um and this bank has said to me go to your terminal build a synthetic santander and well the way you would do that is just build a portfolio and have it like five percent you know uh some eastern european stuff you know maybe 10 or 20 percent uk 10 or 20 percent europe i'm kind of making up the numbers here you know 10 or 20 percent america maybe it's like citizens banorte it our lloyd's banking group you kind of blend them all together and that portfolio will outperform santander he said. And what that tells you is that investors would rather buy a collection of single country banks than one big, sprawling cross-border bank. And the kind of unsubtle implication there is that names like Citigroup, HSBC, Santander, BBVA, these big cross-border players, Standard Chartered, There's kind of, and this really reflected the way a lot of investors thought about at the time, There's no reason for them to exist, really. Was, was, was a kind of extreme way of thinking about that, and it would be much better to be a U.K. specialist over here. And if I want to own that as an investor, I can buy that. Don't force me to also own a Mexican bank, a Brazilian bank, a US auto finance thing that's not... that's not a thing, was the reason, and that, I think that's changing now. Right. And I kind of wonder, because there's two things underlying this that immediately come to my mind, at least, right? Which is one, like, what is bank? How does it perform? What is it? Is it a residual or is it about the strength of the home nation in which it operates? Is it about the strength of the markets into which it taps? Is it about like, you know, if all the AI financing activity, for instance, is happening in the United States, like, are you missing out on just a ton of stuff that redounds to the valuation of your bank if you're not there? And then second is, Okay but is there any reason to combine tapping into those stronger markets with oh i am actually a uk bank or oh i am actually an italian bank or what have you like i guess could you just like walk us through that a little bit like if we are seeing this reverse like you said people at some point, thought, why should big, sprawling international banks exist? Well, why should they? Why is it not that, just like, you know, your fate is that you are a residual of whatever your national economy is? I think that's a really good question. That's exactly the right way to think about it. The thing that people used to say was, there are no cross-border synergies in banking. Let me explain what that means, because that's a collection of very opaque words. It means that you're not going to be a better UK mortgage lender or US credit card lender by virtue of being the other thing. It would be better to be a UK mortgage lender funded by UK deposits. You will be better at that. And then you should separately have a different bank that does u.s credit cards um funded by you know u.s deposits and there's no reason to think that being good at one makes you better at the other that was the kind of the skepticism that explained why investors were quite down on cross-border banking particularly cross-border retail banking high street banking commercial banking um something has changed that and it's it's still hotly debated i don't think we've reached a new settlement on that but the increasing role of technology I think this is what bank ceos would say several years ago who had cross-border operations they would say well we're developing these big in-house tech platforms And it'll be so much cheaper for us to stick all of our you know auto financing activity on one common platform and oh by the way the car makers are global so we're financing volkswagens in germany why shouldn't we also be financing volkswagens in you know california they probably don't, you know, drive Volkswagens in California anymore, but you know what I mean? And that kind of global scale argument is actually starting to bear out. So if you look at Santander, you know, the Spanish bank that I was talking about earlier, It's very big, you know, it's kind of similar size to Citigroup or Wells Fargo in terms of its assets. Their returns of their local businesses, you know, their U.S. business, If you look at their targets, now looks like a very good U.S. bank. Their uk business looks like a very increasingly like a very good uk bank same for the spanish business so and then on top of that you've got all this kind of cross-border wholesale you know currency changing big corporate and investment banking stuff which is genuinely cross-border So some combination of um animal spirits and investment banking and and commercial kind of activity being bigger than it was before the pandemic and that being a genuinely cross-border business and then the tech part of it actually meaning that you are better at uk realtor banking if you're also good at U.S. retail banking, so that's kind of flipped the logic on its head. And just to round out on that, one of the clearest examples, I think, is what JP Morgan is doing. So they're taking the Chase brand outside of its American home market and they're launching it in the uk and germany now and the whole argument behind that the whole logic behind that is that we know how to run a digital consumer bank there's no particular reason why we would not be able to do that in the uk um and by the way with jp morgan we've got five trillion of assets or whatever so you know try and stop us. Do you know what I think is sort of interesting about this, Liam, though? It's that if you think about what banks are exposed to, right, it's that they're exposed to economies. So think about your mortgage lender that you talked about. A UK mortgage lender is very exposed to the UK economy. So if people don't have enough money to pay off their credit cards or they are not buying as many houses, that you are as an investor completely exposed to that. So therefore, you would think that a bank that has more markets is that there would be some sort of like buffer or like a diversification benefit that you would have, which is that maybe when one goes down, the other goes up and they sort of they sort of help each other out in that way. And I think, even from an insurance perspective, regulators even think about it like that, because that's why you get these sort of Solvency benefits. You get capital benefits the more markets you're in, that idea being that you would be less exposed to risks in one that would just maybe potentially wreck your business. So what do you think is happening now is that is that thinking coming to the fore or i don't know are people just a bit more if they're on for risk or That's something that a lot of these names have always said, right? You know, Santander, HSBC, people like that. You would often hear people say, You know, if you have a diversified global banking, you inow, model. And, you know, it works within the businesses as well. So, you know, within investment banking, you know, whatever, trading does well when M&A does badly and vice versa. And, you know, what are the odds that there's going to be a credit card crisis in, you know, Scunthorpe and Sao Paulo at the same time? You know, that kind of thing. You just get these inherent kind of offsetting um you know correlations or you know negative correlations i'm quite skeptical of that argument and i don't think that people have just radically changed their view on that and now they believe that diversification i mean you know you could take that so far you know okay well there should there should be one we should all invest in one company that does everything in the world like you know you do get worse at things the more things that you do right and if investors want diversification I can just buy you know a US You know regional bank and then a UK regional bank and there you go I've diversified myself I don't need you to give that to me Ana Patricia Botín Santander CEO so I don't know maybe some investors have started to buy that and that kind of you know in the technical jargon lowers your cost of equity, or whatever, because, you know, you're sort of like, your risk profile is diminished. But I think really what's going on is that these banks have just got better and they are kind of proving the case i mean look at hsbc which is you know right up in that upper echelon of giant you know three plus trillion of assets kind of same ballpark as bank of america um it just makes a higher return on those assets on its equity than it did a few years ago. Um, and it's got rid of a lot of the crap, and it's got rid of a lot of the sort of fringe stuff that was weighing stuff down. And then you kind of scrape all that away, I think same same kind of things going on at Citigroup as well. Well scrape a lot of that stuff away and then you discover these like actually pretty good franchises underneath that that are you know doing quite well and maybe and probably do benefit from from cross-border expertise in some way or another Is there a sense in which the traditional banks maybe have have the jump on this versus because I think about a situation like with Wise or the other like European fintechs who have tried to move in and get like U.S. banking charters and got knocked back despite maybe the U.S. banking charter approval system not being like the most squeaky clean these days. Is there a sense that like you can play that cross-border techie theme better through a big old institution just because there's like some weird tweaky like regulatory risk around some of the the like more pure fintech names like i don't know i just wonder about it because you you think about you know tech as being like this disruptive thing that moves across borders and whatnot but it may be that it's actually this stuff is best housed within jp morgan just taking chase to another market. I do actually think there's something in that. I mean, and I think that investors are starting to buy that banks can be savvy tech investors. It used to be the case that if, you know, whatever, the CEO of some random Italian bank said We're spending 400 million on tech over the next three years, The investors would just say, okay, that's 400 million they've just thrown into a well somewhere. And we'll just kind of ignore that and assume that, whatever they do, It's going to be dysfunctional. And, you know, kind of exaggerating, but I've been writing about European banks for a long time now and you kind of, you speak to some of these people that are at these institutions, you really have the distinct impression that these back office systems were like held together with kind of, you know, blu tack and bits of string and cello tape and stuff. Or they have, like servers that they don't know what they do. Yeah, exactly. And something's written in some obscure programming language programming language from like the 1540s or something that no one speaks anymore and um you i think that what you're getting at there Jonathan is that that has changed a little bit and i think people look at what jp morgan is doing with his tech spend and it's it's you know been increasing it in absolute terms over the past few years um and i think people buy that now they say okay you're getting value from money you're improving your systems. You're introducing a new technology that allows your bond traders to price quicker and more accurately. You're introducing something that allows, you know, mortgage underwriting decisions to be quicker and more accurate. And I think that has started to catch And I think, you know, there's a massive, separate debate around banks and AI, and to what sent to you when? And well, how does it all net out? Yeah, I was going to say, because we're moving into a period where to a first approximation computational intelligence is like consolidating in two or three companies like why would a bank i understand that it's been a big narrative for jp morgan for a long time they've had this really high tech spend and they're supposed to be kind of ahead of the game on this but like you know we just went through saspocalypse right where people assume the sales force would stop existing for a little while uh because claude could do it all like why why can't claude be my compliance officer or what have you right um i mean that's an answerable question, I suppose, but No, but I think someone who's bullish on this thesis that I'm outlining here would almost flip that around and say, okay, well, who is going to get preferential and early access to Mythos? Is it going to be, you know, the sort of mid-sized single country, you know, Midwestern regional lender, or is it going to be HSBC and, you know, JP Morgan? I find that such a compelling idea, like bank valuations based on preferential, like regulatory access to leading AI models. That's, yeah. What could go wrong? What could go wrong? But you know what, I joke, but Liam and Jonathan, I accept that I'm going to sound old, but I feel like this is like the thing that has shaped the entire banking industry and the way the CEOs still, I think, operate and the questions that they still have to answer. So if you have a situation where take a bank like CaixaBank, which maybe some of our listeners have never even heard of, a Spanish domestic lender, is there a risk that they go off and buy something like NatWest? They buy something that is just so out of their knowledge base and that you end up with these big risks building up again. I know we're probably way before that, but I just sort of wonder, Is that when you talk to people about this idea of banks going cross-border again and expanding, is this something that people think about? Yes, definitely. So that's the next leg of this. And if we're looking forwards to where this trend goes, It seems like bank CFOs, bank treasurers, Are more comfortable with cross-border exposures then they were. So the Bank for International Settlements tracks this data, and I think it was up 11% or 12% year-on-year in the first and second quarter, or maybe the final quarter of 2025 and the first quarter of 2026, Which was that and this is cross-border credit you know loans that have extended outside of the the home office that you like and that was the fastest rate of growth since before 2008 Um, so you saw this and that number went negative for quite a long time after 2008, but all of the cross-border exposures were shrinking. So, I know we're supposed to be talking about M&A, but I just wanted to get that in there. So, what that tells you is that banks are more comfortable having those cross-border exposures so how could that manifest in a more extreme way going forwards I think definitely M&A could be part of it. So, if you just, you know, do the rounds with... Financial institutions bankers these days, and say, what are the kind of dream chessboard combinations that have big cross border kind of elements, you know, people will talk about Wells Fargo buying Barclays, for example, or they'll talk about, you know, another American Bank buying a Swiss wealth manager. You know, people were really starting to get their chess boards out. People are obviously pitching these very big but still single-country European names like an Intesa Sanpaolo or a CaixaBank from Spain that you notice these people that you know. Frankly at most investors outside of those countries just they weren't on their radar a few years ago and now they're like well this Intesa Sanpaolo does a 20% RO2Es the same as JP Morgan basically but it trades a two times book instead of three times book and suddenly these names have become quite racy and they're getting high valuations and they're getting high returns and they're absolutely stacking up the capital because their profits are enormous relative to where they were and the idea is well maybe they just go and buy something in another country. Because if you're in Intesa Sanpaolo if you're ING in the netherlands if you're CaixaBank in spain if you're Lloyds in the uk you can't really grow that much at home you're already just a derivative of the local economy you're such a large fraction of lending so what do you do do you just sit there and just pay out, you know, billions and billions each year as dividends and just content yourself for that existence? Or do, at some point, you kind of pick up the phone from one of these investment bankers and say, Okay, fine, Yeah, maybe I do want to look at an asset abroad. So yeah, but when would that get scary? When would that get to pre-2008 levels of hubris? I think if you saw more European banks really drastically trying to expand in the US, they're saying, you know, we want to get a bigger, much bigger piece of the AI financing trade. If you saw people chasing hot themes where they didn't have any demonstrable expertise, that's kind of what was happening back then is people panicking and thinking we are going to miss out on all this growth. And the valuations, right, as well. And the valuations right in the U.S. would be way higher. So they would be paying a lot for that as well. Yeah, in some cases, yeah, generally, yeah. I mean, you know, Santander trades twoish They're buying a big two-times tangible book. They're buying a big U.S. bank, medium-sized U.S. bank called Webster for two-ish. So you can find situations where the valuations kind of match up. And it helps that, you know, as European banks, it used to, you know, be like 50 billion names. They're now 100 billion, 200 billion dollar market caps in some cases. So you can make the numbers add up sometimes. But yeah, you're right, Generally if you're European and you're buying anything in the US you're always going to be accused of overpaying relative to your own valuation and if you add on that a kind of you know someone's getting a bit desperate to to you know someone's got a bit of FOMO Then I think that would start to get worrying but I haven't seen that yet. Okay, well, that's as good a place as any to wrap it up. Liam, thank you so much for joining us on The ViewsRoom. Pleasure. Thanks for tuning in. This podcast was produced by Sheryl Peña in New York and Gregory Garner in Toronto. You can check out a new episode of The ViewsRoom every Thursday. And don't forget to tune in to our sister show, The Big View, Every Tuesday, as well as all the other great podcasts from the Reuters team. To get in touch with feedback, questions and ideas, Please email us at breakingviews-podcasts@tr.com. That's breakingviews-podcasts@tr.com. If you liked what you heard, please rate the show and leave us a review. Breaking View's subscribers get access to all our views on the biggest stories in business and finance as they break every day on BreakingViews.com. Or you can always sample some of our insights at Reuters.com."},"published_time":"2026-09-03T06:25:59Z","updated_time":"2026-09-03T06:26:01Z","thumbnail":{"url":"https://ajo.prod.reuters.tv/api/v2/img/6a99103fe4b08e2aff5297d5","caption":"After years of post-crisis retrenchment, the likes of Banco Santander and JPMorgan are again expanding across borders. In this week’s Viewsroom, Breakingviews columnists debate whether they’re just recreating pre-2008 risks.","type":"image","resizer_url":"https://ajo.prod.reuters.tv/api/v2/img/6a99103fe4b08e2aff5297d5"},"source":{"hls":"https://ajo.prod.reuters.tv/v3/playlist/787072/master.m3u8"},"channels":[{"id":"Breakingviews","name":"Breakingviews","regions":["UK","US"]},{"id":"HPUS","name":"RCOM Homepage US","regions":["US"]}],"advert_info":{"advert_params":[{"key":"adfriendly","value":true}],"advert_zone":"/4735792/reuters.com"},"meta_data":[{"key":"link","value":"tag:reuters.com,2026:newsml_RW944901092026RP1:5"},{"key":"byline","value":"VARIOUS"},{"key":"hidden","value":"false"},{"key":"region","value":"Remote"},{"key":"dateline","value":"Reuters, Reuters, SEP 03"},{"key":"lmp-feed","value":"lp"},{"key":"copyright","value":"(c) 2026 Thomson Reuters, unless otherwise identified. Full statement available at https://www.thomsonreuters.com/en/policies/copyright.html"},{"key":"package-mood","value":"Neutral"},{"key":"package-notes","value":"Breakingviews, BV, Viewsroom, Aimee Donnellan, Jonathan Guilford"},{"key":"package-format","value":"Other"},{"key":"publisher-name","value":"reuters.com"},{"key":"upstream-title","value":"Globetrotting banks are back"},{"key":"external-asset-id","value":"285_RW944901092026RP1"},{"key":"package-no-social","value":"Yes"},{"key":"package-restrictions","value":"FOR REUTERS PLATFORMS ONLY. For Reuters customers only."},{"key":"upstream-description","value":"After years of post-crisis retrenchment, the likes of Banco Santander and JPMorgan are again expanding across borders. In this week’s Viewsroom, Breakingviews columnists debate whether they’re just recreating pre-2008 risks."},{"key":"upstream-channel-code","value":"vty454"}],"usn":"RW944901092026RP1"},{"id":"RW777825082026RP1","type":"video","subtype":"application/x-mpegURL","external_id":"RW777825082026RP1","title":"Warsh’s tight lip test","description":"The Fed chair will speak on Friday at a gathering of central bankers. In this Viewsroom debate, Breakingviews columnists discuss whether he can keep markets focused on the economy and avoid the uncomfortable subject of interest rates.","duration":1032.16,"transcript_data":{"transcript":"The views expressed on this podcast are those of the participants, not of Reuters News. Once upon a time, the Wyoming town of Jackson Hole's main draw was fly fishing. As the story goes, that was the lure dangled by the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City to then-Central Bank Chief Paul Volcker in 1982. His attendance, in waders and all, helped to seal what is now an annual tradition, a global summit of central bankers, academics, and monetary policy experts. Bashing over the big issues of the day. Tradition has it that Volcker's first appearance was testy, Coming amid a push for crushingly high interest rates to tame inflation. His present-day successor, Kevin Warsh, has done nothing quite so drastic. Still, his early tenure has had its share of hot-button issues. 30-year yields are over 5%, grazing highs last seen in 2007. As this year's edition kicks off this week, Warsh's challenge, as ever, is not to get swept away by the current. I am Aimee Donnellan and I'm Jonathan Guilford, and this is The Views Room, your weekly dive into the biggest stories in politics, economics, and finance. And, Aimee, I mean, this is sort of a big deal every year, right? I mean, we've had Jackson Hole Symposia that have come amid the financial crisis, that have come amid, you know, the wake of COVID. Like, there's been no shortage of big, momentous meetings. But this one feels like a little bit weirder because now we have all of these strange issues about like the Fed as a fundamental institution. We have all of this crosstalk from the Trump administration, which obviously tried to cow the Fed for a while by attempting to fire Governor Lisa Cook by launching an investigation into then chairman Jerome Powell. And now we have Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent kind of off on his own freelancing a bunch of really, really momentous economic policy. Everything feels a little bit muddle There are kind of a lot of voices talking over Kevin Warsh. And the irony of it all is that Kevin Warsh is trying to keep his voice the quietest in the room because his take is that essentially the Fed has been handholding markets too much and there should be less guidance. And so it's all just a really weird jumble of things like heading into this Jackson Hole conference. I think it makes it a little bit different than ones that we've seen in the past few years. Absolutely. I'm actually curious, Jonathan, have you ever been to Jackson Hole? I have not. Tragically, that entire part of the country, I'm a very typical kind of British transplant to the United States. I go to obviously New York where I live and the Bay Area, and that's basically the high and low of it. However, as I understand it, it's very beautiful out there. Well, you're right. I think like I think the idea, though, that, you know, that there's the fishing analogy, this idea of like, you know, extreme waters that Warsh is now kind of like trying to kind of navigate through. I think, as well, it's going to be really interesting to speak to our guest, Gabriel Rubin, which, I think we should just introduce, like, straight away, because he has written so much, I think, about Warsh, about the Fed, and also about, like, as you said, Scott Bessent's role in communicating. Despite the fact that he is not in any way in the federal reserve but just that sort of tension between those two those two people so as i said let's uh let's bring Gabe in um and yeah i suppose Gabe we might as well ask you as well have you been to jackson hole are you a fly fisher I have not. I would love to. Jackson Hole is also in the middle of the Grand Tetons and Yellowstone National Park. So Wyoming, the fewest people of any state in the Union, but, you know, arguably one of the most beautiful, certainly one of the most beautiful. So I would I would love to get out there at some point. But would you get into waters if you went out there? I think I would stick to hiking, but we'll we'll see. So, Gabe, what is the significance of Jackson Hole, given that we have like Fed minutes and we hear a lot from Warsh, we hear a lot from the Federal Reserve. So, yes, I should say we are we are recording this on Tuesday. The conference starts on Thursday and I think Warsh is speaking on Friday. But what would would he is this an opportunity to to say things that haven't been said before to clarify things? Has that historically been what it's used for? Yeah, it's historically used as sort of a pivot point and as sort of an opportunity beyond the post-meeting press conferences or congressional testimony or even a speech at a different venue. It is a chance to set out a broader vision of monetary policy. It's summer. People are out in the mountains. It's a little more casual. You can think a little bigger. It's really a big ideas conference as opposed to sort of a nitty gritty, we need to make a decision today conference. And, you know, even in recent history, to just take one example, Jerome Powell, when he, you know, the Fed had fully realized that it was behind the curve on the post-COVID inflation, and he gave a speech, the 2022 speech, that basically said, 'We're behind the curve.' We're going to fix this. We're going to go hardcore into managing inflation. And that is exactly what the Fed did throughout the rest of Powell's tenure. So it's certainly a very closely watched speech because it will give us a sense of where Kevin Warsh wants to take the Fed. We know a little bit. He's told that, you know, he's given his first press conference, his first couple of press conferences, which have not gone so well. His congressional testimony, which also didn't get such great reviews. And basically, he needs to tell the country, he needs to tell monetary policy people who are in the room listening, you know, that he is going to continue the traditions of the Fed as an independent monetary policy arbiter. But also potentially talk about, you know, roles that the Fed can shed. Financial regulation duties, certain duties related to being a lender of last resort, you know, changing the balance sheets. He's got a lot on his plate. He's put a lot on his own plates. So we'll see where that where that leads. Yeah, this is the thing So monetary policy, it's really catnip, I think, for journalists, right? Because words matter so, so much. You think of kind of like big turning points over the past decade. It's stuff like, you know, the Draghi speech about doing whatever it takes. And it's, like you said, like Powell coming out and kind of realizing that he needs to reset the narrative on inflation. And it's, you know, kind of delightful for us because it's the ultimate victory of word people over shape rotators, I guess. But when you look at Warsh, though, right? It's interesting because, you know, you think of, like, back in the old days of Jackson Hole, Volcker, it's like there was something, like, really, really material, pressing, happening right there, which was he was making a policy change that was beyond any, like, for guidance or any stuff where you're talking around the edges. Like, obviously, expectations matter and so on. But like rates were double digits it was like this really really unprecedented um kind of policy course with whoosh all of this stuff is a bit more nebulous it feels like and like you say right he is not necessarily like the word guy to end all word guys press conferences thus far have been Really odd and elliptical which i guess kind of fits with his whole thing of of trying to give less hand-holding i mean i guess i just wondered like how far he is outside of the mainstream both in terms of like real material policy but also in terms of just his relationship to the power of words coming from central bankers Yeah, I think the broad consensus really has turned into a consensus. I mean, even Jerome Powell was saying this in his last few press conferences because Warsh had sort of been talking about it. So Powell was also asked. And the consensus is that the Fed does talk too much. I mean, Fed governors are constantly on the road, you know, at Rotary Club meetings, at universities, at nonprofits, you know talking behind closed doors often without transcripts not good uh to financial institutions and their shareholders um so and that is aside from the very official communications of you know meeting minutes or the press conference or congressional testimony etc Uh, so lots of people think the Fed should talk less, should, you know, put out fewer, uh, you know the dot plot, which puts out projections of future rates. And basically, you know, Warsh's big thing is stop playing the Fed, play the real economy. He's talking to investors He's saying, don't try to don't don't wait around guessing what I'm going to do or what we're going to do. That's not the important part, the important part is what's actually going on in the real economy. Supply chains, demand, you know, productivity. But, Gabe, can I, like, just jump in here? I think that that is slightly bizarre when the real economy is actually quite controlled by interest rates. Like, think of the housing market. Absolutely. Absolutely. So the counterpoint to this and it's a it's emerging as a very strong counterpoint, including from people within the Fed, you know, Governor Christopher Waller, who was who was, you know, a top choice, who was previously appointed by President Trump and was considered a top candidate for Warsh's job, has basically said, you know, look, I think we're doing an OK job. And I think that, like, some of, you know, some of the pushback on this is, you know, like, do you have a better idea? And essentially, like, I mean, that's a paraphrase, to be clear. But, you know, it just sort of seems like there is not a better idea. You know, the Fed is the most important economic institution in the world. There's absolutely no question about that Any private or public institution, you know, it's the lender of last resort in the largest economy. it is, you know, the keeper of the reserve currency, if you will. Uh... It affects, like, Latin America It affects, like, Asia. It affects... So, I think... Warsh, I think there's some monetary policy folks would like Warsh to sort of be more cognizant of that role. I think there are some good signs about this. So there was a conference earlier, sort of the Jackson Hole of Europe, which is in Sintra, Portugal, also a beautiful place I've heard. I haven't been myself, but certainly a little different than Jackson Hole. I have been to Sintra. It's amazing Castles on the coast and vino verde um so at that conference he had a very cordial and and you know by all accounts very productive uh meetings with his counterparts in europe and and in the UK and uh and there there there is sort of international cooperation the problem is that Warsh himself does not have any sort of consensus on the board and uh and he has to sort of convince his colleagues of these new ideas. So that's why Jackson Hole is important to sort of present that case to another audience. Right. Does it also help? Because you mentioned the Fed, the most important economic policy actor that we have, I think, as it's traditionally understood. However, I think, you know, I hear I hear some music playing in the background and I believe that Scott Bessent coming onto the stage. The U.S. Treasury secretary, he's not invited Jonathan. Right. But like the U.S. Treasury Secretary has been taking like a much more interventionist and like sort of just like it feels almost like adhoc role in terms of economic policy management. We saw the Treasury move to stabilize the Yen. We saw the Treasury move to increase bond buybacks at the long end of the curve. And it's like all of this comes amid a backdrop of increasing pressure on the Fed from the administration feels like a lot of jumbled ideas about like who is actually running the ship right now. Like, how does that play into all of this? Because I presume we've seen periods of like Treasury stepping in and being more muscular during like crises and whatnot. Right. But this feels a little different. Yeah, to be clear, these are powers that the Treasury Department has. These are not made-up, brand-new powers, buybacks and changing the orientation of Treasury auctions. I mean, some Trump folks criticized Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen during the Biden administration for doing variations on changing how the auction structure was set up. So, Treasury, you know, has a lot of, as their name suggests, they have a lot of power over the Treasury market, given that they issue those bonds. The issue for Bessent is that he doesn't actually have the firepower that the Fed has. You know, changing a buyback structure or, you know, billions of dollars do not make a big difference in the overall, you know, multi-multi-multi-trillion dollar Treasury market. So his tools are much more limited than the feds, and he should remember that. And my worry is that he's going to realize that his tools are more ineffective than he wants them to be. And the Fed pressure campaign that the administration has mounted this entire time will just continue. We already know that President Trump continues to call Warsh, and those calls are not on his public calendars, which is not a good thing. But Warsh has said that, you know, he's been transparent in the sense that he has said that Trump has called him. Um, and, and. And, you know, Besant continues to really try to influence monetary policy. Some of that is to be expected, but some of that is really an encroachment on the independence of the Federal Reserve. And that's a problem going forward for issues like, you know, fiscal dominance and yield curve control and basically just like the ability to keep inflation expectations anchored. So I was just sort of curious, Gabe, just given what we've been discussing and the whole point about, I think that tension that you're talking about, which is that he's saying we're just like focus on the real economy, not what I'm going to tell you about interest rates. But as we said, The world is watching as well as everybody else in the US. Do you think that there is a way in which that if you just get less information from the US, it becomes less reliable and the world sort of starts to change around you In terms of how it thinks about the US and that control. Yeah, I mean, I think that, you know, the various uncertainties related to the U.S. economy and the sort of plumbing behind the U.S. economy, given the U.S.'s propensity to weaponize those advantages, you know, has pushed, you know, pushes countries away from the dollar, pushes transactions away from the dollar. You know, if you're avoiding sanctions because the sanctions are so broad that you can't do business with, you know, a third party of a third party of a third party, countries around the world, actors around the world will seek to do business in other ways that cut out the Federal Reserve's role, cut out the U.S.'s role. Um and frankly there is the larger you know policy issue of the the number one inflationary force in the world right now uh is is you know the United States's war in Iran uh so so obviously Bessent as in you know as uh you know we're recording this on tuesday yesterday apparently was economic d-day for Iran um you know it's this massive new or it's supposedly going to be this massive new sanctions regime beyond the sanctions that already existed. So, you know, there continues to be this use of the international financial architecture to support different U.S. policy roles. That's been the case for a very long time. But now people don't trust it and it's not working as well. So you really risk a broader move away from the U.S. slowly, of course, but, you know, They're not doing themselves any favors. Right. Yeah. And it's kind of funny. Kevin Warsh, I think, as we've been making clear throughout this, right, he wants to be the quiet Fed Chair. And yeah, I think it sort of perversely raises the stakes of events like these because it's like the power of those fewer words just seems so magnified when all of this is going on. Um, but yeah, I think that's as good a place as any to wrap it. Um, Gabe, thank you so much for joining us on the ViewsRoom. Great to be here. Thanks for tuning in. This podcast was produced by Sheryl Peña in New York and Gregory Garner in Toronto. You can check out a new episode of The ViewsRoom every Thursday. And don't forget to tune in to our sister show, The Big View, every Tuesday. As well as all the other great podcasts from the Reuters team. To get in touch with feedback, questions and ideas, Please email us at breakingviews-podcasts@tr.com. That's breakingviews-podcasts@tr.com. If you liked what you heard, please rate the show and leave us a review. BreakingViews subscribers get access to all our views on the biggest stories in business and finance as they break every day on BreakingViews.com. Or you can always sample some of our insights at Reuters.com."},"published_time":"2026-08-27T06:00:35Z","updated_time":"2026-08-27T06:00:37Z","thumbnail":{"url":"https://ajo.prod.reuters.tv/api/v2/img/6a8fcff9e4b0f9a8fa391205-1787809818916","caption":"The Fed chair will speak on Friday at a gathering of central bankers. In this Viewsroom debate, Breakingviews columnists discuss whether he can keep markets focused on the economy and avoid the uncomfortable subject of interest rates.","type":"image","resizer_url":"https://ajo.prod.reuters.tv/api/v2/img/6a8fcff9e4b0f9a8fa391205-1787809818916"},"source":{"hls":"https://ajo.prod.reuters.tv/v3/playlist/786557/master.m3u8"},"channels":[{"id":"Breakingviews","name":"Breakingviews","regions":["UK","US"]},{"id":"HPUS","name":"RCOM Homepage US","regions":["US"]}],"advert_info":{"advert_params":[{"key":"adfriendly","value":true}],"advert_zone":"/4735792/reuters.com"},"meta_data":[{"key":"link","value":"tag:reuters.com,2026:newsml_RW777825082026RP1:5"},{"key":"byline","value":"VARIOUS"},{"key":"hidden","value":"false"},{"key":"region","value":"Remote"},{"key":"dateline","value":"Reuters, Reuters, AUG 27"},{"key":"lmp-feed","value":"lp"},{"key":"copyright","value":"(c) 2026 Thomson Reuters, unless otherwise identified. Full statement available at https://www.thomsonreuters.com/en/policies/copyright.html"},{"key":"package-mood","value":"Neutral"},{"key":"package-notes","value":"Breakingviews, BV, Viewsroom, Aimee Donnellan, Jonathan Guilford"},{"key":"package-format","value":"Other"},{"key":"publisher-name","value":"reuters.com"},{"key":"upstream-title","value":"Warsh’s tight lip test"},{"key":"external-asset-id","value":"285_RW777825082026RP1"},{"key":"package-no-social","value":"Yes"},{"key":"package-restrictions","value":"FOR REUTERS PLATFORMS ONLY. For Reuters customers only."},{"key":"upstream-description","value":"The Fed chair will speak on Friday at a gathering of central bankers. In this Viewsroom debate, Breakingviews columnists discuss whether he can keep markets focused on the economy and avoid the uncomfortable subject of interest rates."},{"key":"upstream-channel-code","value":"vty454"}],"usn":"RW777825082026RP1"},{"id":"RW631118082026RP1","type":"video","subtype":"application/x-mpegURL","external_id":"RW631118082026RP1","title":"Europe’s climate crisis","description":"The EU envisages €700 bln of annual spending on clean energy, yet only a fraction of that on adapting to already-baked-in warming. In this Viewsroom debate, Breakingviews columnists discuss the inevitable effects on green policy.","duration":1175.43,"transcript_data":{"transcript":"The views expressed on this podcast are those of the participants. Not of Reuters News. Soaring temperatures, forests ablaze and unprecedented droughts. These have become the hallmarks of global warming in the US and Asia. But this summer, Europe has become the epicenter. In England, a country that has been characterized by grey skies and many people complaining about rain, average daily maximum temperatures have topped normal levels every single day in July. By August, the number of days where the temperature has soared above 30 degrees, so about 86 Fahrenheit, had broken records. Across the Channel in France France is breaking daily heat records and shattering monthly ones. And here's the problem for policymakers. Europe appears to be uniquely unprepared for this problem. Office towers and homes can't handle extreme heat and air conditioning never caught on the way it did in the US. The result? A massive bill is coming due. And that's what we're going to focus on in this week's Viewsroom. I am Aimee Donnellan. And I'm Jonathan Guilford And this is The Views Room, your weekly dive into the biggest stories in economics, politics and finance. And Aimee, it's interesting because the way you put it there, I think, is pretty telling. I was actually looking this up recently. I grew up in Yorkshire for a big part of my childhood. And at least if Wikipedia is to be trusted, it gets something like a thousand fewer hours of sunshine per year compared to New York, where I now live. And so, I think you get stuck in this mental model where none of this is an issue. It's just some passing fancy. We have tail events in the weather all the time, because, you know, just as a human being, you get trapped between this thing of, 'Oh, I think about the weather' versus 'I think about climate and the distribution of days.' Right. Yes. But now that distribution is shifting enough that it feels like every year becomes this really unusual what feels like a tale of it and kind of the way life was, right? That's absolutely right. And I think I'm based in Ireland. So again, even grayer and rainier than England. And I think this summer has been really characterized by, again, temperatures I have never seen in my lifetime. And there's, like, these summers that people kind of refer back to, which were, like, these blazing summers. Like, 1995 was one. But this is like this is in Galway, whereas the West Coast, the Atlantic is absolutely belting it every day. You know, it was above 30 degrees, which, as I said, I just you never experienced that. And then air conditioning, all these things, beome bizarre conversations. And funnily enough, actually, the houses that are being built in Ireland and in many places in Europe are these A-rated homes, right? So they have double glazing, triple glazing They are meant for cold temperatures. They're meant to lock in the heat. So then when it comes to a summer where the temperatures are so high and there's no air conditioning, these are like ovens, living in ovens, basically. That we have a very informed guest on this, John Cinder, who is the global economics editor at Breaking Views, and he's been looking at this very topic. So, I mean, I'm from Barcelona, right? Barcelona. I'm very much used to these summers, just not in London. The summers in London are like my summers when I was growing up. And of course, the summers in Barcelona now, they're like the summers in Andalusia in the south of Spain, which is crazy. And I cannot even guess what the summers are in Andalusia now. They must be like the ones in Planet Vulcan or something. Well, John, it's funny from from traveling to Spain during summers where, as you say, it was very hot. One thing that I did note was that, you know, it's marble floors, it's big high ceilings, like the houses seem like basically set up to be cool. Right. But I think what we're talking about is many places in Europe that have not had these types of temperatures before. And I just kind of wondered, maybe just to start off, like how equipped is Europe from this standing point we're at now? I mean, it depends on the view you take. So there was a very interesting report that the EU commissioned that was published earlier this year that we've looked at for a recent view we've written. And the headline finding, and it's a median estimate, it goes up and down is that the adaptation bill to adapt to climate change every year for Europe going forward is around 70. Billion euros. This kind of made the headline saying, oh, look how high it is. I mean, my main thought is this is very low. It's only about 0.5% of EU GDP. And to be clear, it's very well done as a study. So, what they basically do is they go through all the priorities that member states have published. You know, what have they said will be necessary? And then they try and cost that. So they say, well, you know, let's delete the repeats. Let's kind of rationalize it into plans in groups that kind of make sense. Then let's take every country. Let's say how much it would cost so they find cost sources for, I don't know, sea barriers or whatever it is. They scale it up based on the population. Sometimes, there are economies of sometimes there isn't. Some countries have geographies that are easier. Some countries have geographies that are harder They try to account for all this to come up with this estimate. It's pretty well done. You look through it and there is a lot there. However, the first thing that I noticed wasn't there is residential AC. Because as you say, I've done this the past few months. I've installed AC into my Victorian home. I've desecrated my beautiful hundred-year Victorian home to put AC in because it was completely insufferable. This is not part of I've asked some of the authors about this. They say, well, in some countries, in some plans, you could see maybe there is some category that could, but generally there isn't. The European countries: we don't think about this. Traditionally, we don't like AC. In many countries, it hasn't been necessary. So it's not part of the adaptation plans. And here, I mean. It's very hard to figure out what that bill would be. I was trying to play around with some back of the envelope costs. Let's say, you know, it costs 2000 euros on average to install. You know, let's say there is like an average consumption, which we can we can get from AC providers. If we think about the fact that we only have 26% AC penetration compared to 90% in the US. So if we take that difference, 150 million homes, 2,000 apiece, you have to take into account the electricity bill, the maintenance bill. I got somewhere around 30 to 40 billion euros a year. This is assuming that you ramp it up until 2050, which is the horizon of this study. Could some of that you know, be included in some other EU measures for the energy transition, you know, to refurbish the grids, maybe. But overall, I think the bill is going to be a lot higher than we think. And also, just to finish, there are cascading events that can happen here that the study also says very clearly we can't account for. So, you know, if the sea level causes something else to go wrong, all that, it's, you know, a bunch of extra costs we can't even imagine at the moment. Right. I just wanted to tap a little bit on that piece that you mentioned about the report not mentioning residential AC, right? Because this has been, I think, rich grist for the mill where people produce the world's most boring conversation, which is Europeans insulting Americans and Americans insulting Europeans. It's a new culture war. Which Jonathan, we've made an entire podcast out of it. Exactly. No, entirely. But there is something where I think you get a sense of disbelief or astonishment in the United States that there seems to be I think, what is credited as some cultural resistance to AC. But what I wanted to do was back into because obviously. All of this is going to touch on this bigger issue of, you know, Europe has tried to be fairly like climate forward or at least, you know, ostensibly climate forward in terms of broader energy policy, in terms of kind of like a lot of bits and pieces of economic policy that I think have gotten a lot of blowback these days. AC obviously comes into this not just as, 'Oh, there's 40 billion euros, which maybe consumers have to spend to upgrade homes or whatever.' The market is going to take care of that as the market does. When you were talking to folks who were doing the study or when you've been talking to folks generally, does this ever impinge on kind of like broader strategic concerns for Europe, right? Because like summer is typically a time of a lull in energy demand more broadly. It's a time for refilling gas storage. It's a time for, you know, it kind of helps to smooth out the annual cycle to which Europe is extremely, extremely vulnerable in terms of energy supply. Is there, do you think, a kind of, like, geopolitical, strategic overlay on top of all of this, rather than just, 'Oh, look at Europeans, they have superstitions about ACs,' or whatever? Yeah, I mean, obviously there's a cultural element to this. I mean, I get angry with this all the time So, you know, for example, if you go to Camden Council's planning permissions, right, and you look at AC, they'll tell you something like, 'Have you tried opening your windows?' Um, so, so there is a certain cultural smugness to, to, I would say, Europe, where Americans might have a point. That being said, I would not take it too far. Like, the main reason Europe doesn't have a lot of AC is because a lot of countries haven't needed it. Um, you know, you look at what their temperatures have been, it just didn't justify the cost of having AC, and I think that creates the culture more than perhaps the other way around. An example of this, Italy had very extreme temperatures in the early 2000s. AC there is actually pretty common, you know? And in Spain, it's not as uncommon as you would think because a lot of many parts of Spain have needed it for a long time. I do think we will catch up. We will spend this money now that it's necessary to do so. Whether we'll do it in a strategic way, I have more doubts, but I think we should. And I mean, something else I was looking at is a pretty interesting working paper that Harvard did on the Indian case. And what you see in India, for example, is obviously a lot of households had a need for cooling. But if you don't have a plan, what ends up happening is that the way this ends up working out is the most energy inefficient way possible in many cases. The grids get overwhelmed by AC demand because so much of that AC demand they're not efficient air-to-air pumps right they're whatever like uh portable AC in some cases i mean fans fans eat up so much electricity right we don't we don't think about that when we say oh well is ac bad for emissions in the environment well we do all sorts of things that are pretty bad for the environment. A lot of air-to-air pumps, to your point, Jonathan, they can also heat in the winter. So you get a smoothing of that boiler usage that uses gas during the winter, perhaps, if Europe were to plan this more smartly. So it's a very good question. The energy transition plan for the EU is there. We're talking about whether that capital will be mobilized or not is a question. But what they say, what they're planning is $700 billion a year in the following decades for the energy transition. The basic blocks of electrifying the economy, I think, are there to a great extent. I think the question is, can we turn this into an intelligent part of that plan, right? Where we think about what the grid will need. I advocate this at the moment because I think there is a lot of consternation, like you're saying, about various attitudes towards AC and whatnot in Europe. And I just, for some reason, really want to lean on this. Like you say, so it's, you know, whatever was kind of costed out as a relatively small amount of money needed for basic residential adaptations, 700 billion a year towards the energy transition. And I think, you know, it sometimes gets played up as, 'Oh, you know, look, this is like priorities completely the wrong way around.' But judging by what you were saying about what happened in Italy, what's happened elsewhere, like the consumer market is going to take care of this. Right. Like Midea, the Chinese AC manufacturer, is now selling these fancy, new, you know, kind of portable mini-split units that are going crazy in Europe. Like consumers will get what they want by hook or by crook. Like, it kind of should be the government's concern to be able to sustain that in a way that doesn't open up Europe to more geopolitical fragility. Right. Absolutely. I mean, you talk about an idea. Like, I used to have their big, portable AC unit before, because I was living in an area of town where you couldn't have any external modifications to your building. So you couldn't have AC. So I can't even imagine how much damage I did to the environment with that portable AC. But, you know, yeah, the point I think remains that. If needs arise, you know, the markets will dispose, right? Like the environment will propose, the markets will dispose. As a government, you know, I mean, we are seeing Bloomberg had some estimate the other day collating from national sources saying that there have been 25,000 heat deaths in Europe this year, which i believe is more than american gun deaths if i'm not mistaken which is always something we Europeans like to quote as a benchmark it's a lot right. These needs will arise I think the energy transition so far it has had you know these energy transition plans it has very much had the abstract top-down need to not heat the Earth. And it recently has had tacked onto it the Ukraine, Iran, geopolitical energy sovereignty mentality as well. And these are all very important. I do think maybe what we're missing a little bit is the fact that people will want to adapt to climate change. And there is an element of that that you have to introduce into the mitigation strategy, right? If you're thinking about adapting to it, well, some of it is saying, look. We just need to run AC. And we need to electrify our economies, which means shifting the relative price of gas and electricity, for example. Here in the UK, we have a very high price of gas relative to electricity. That is a big disincentive to many things that need to happen. Well, that's the type of thing we need to fix, because otherwise what you end up is what the Indian study said. You end up having that, right? It's like, oh, people do it anyway, just not in the most efficient way. But maybe, John, like they actually if you think about Spain, one of Spain's, you know, successes has been solar. Maybe that is something that, you know, countries that now have a lot more Sun could actually really start expanding out. Like maybe, you know, to Jonathan's point, it wouldn't really be as much about focusing or relying so heavily on fossil fuels to, you know, to run the whole economy. But I sort of wondered, John, about I think I'm always the lone voice here when I'm kind of thinking about climate change. Like, this adaptation, mitigation, whatever you want to call it is like, I think it's almost like your house is on fire. And you're like, you know what I need is a jacket to stop the heat getting into my bones because I'm actually I'm not going to put this fire out. I'm just going to make sure that I can I can deal with this heat. Is there any sense you get from this? Because, obviously, this is really impacting so many people in Europe. It's affecting farmers. It's affecting all sorts of productivity that there would be more of a push towards carbon taxes or trying to kind of clean up the environment even further. And I know Europe has done more than most places, but is that in the debate at all? I mean, it always feels to me, and maybe I'm being unfair here to the different sides, but that either you are for fixing climate change or anything else is seen as some sort of ideological concession to not fixing climate change or to the other side of the culture war. Partially because, as we were saying, yeah, the AC does increase emissions, right? We need to take that into account. But at the same time, it does feel to me like that's kind of the wrong approach. I mean, it's true that, for example, we've changed the mix of power generation a lot. Spain is a great example. But even in the UK, you know, offshore wind has had a big impact. But if you look at the sources of energy demand, those haven't shifted very much. So we still consume like a lot of gas, for example. I'm of the view that there is a general good into shifting people into electricity-based energy demand, by which I mean EVs and, in this case, say, air-to-air pumps in homes. And the reason for that is that you're not maybe directly fixing the problem, but you are focusing it a lot. You are putting all of the problem in one box that is fixable. We can generate more clean electricity. I think that the more that you spread out the problem, the harder it is to fix. If our grid can support it, if we make the right investment so we can have everything hooked to a powerful grid, we can decarbonize the origin of that energy because we've seen that happen and the economics are increasingly in favor of that. Sorry, I don't know if that answers the question, but I do think to an extent, the two are not as incompatible as maybe sometimes the discourse has made it sound. I do think there is a potential for bringing people from the need to adapt to climate change to cost-effective ways to perhaps dealing with it. Because as well, we have to remember, I mean, in Europe, we are 6% of global emissions. We can do only so much. And we do have to adapt to the effect that they have on our lives. Right. And I think the interaction between all of those factors is going to be continuing driving force in politics going forward, not only in Europe, but elsewhere. But for now, I think that's a great place to wrap it. John, thank you so much for joining us on The Views Room. Thanks for tuning in. This podcast was produced by Cheryl Pena in New York and Gregory Garner in Toronto. You can check out a new episode of The Views Room every Thursday. And don't forget to tune into our sister show, The Big View, every Tuesday, as well as all the other great podcasts from the Reuters team. To get in touch with feedback, questions and ideas, please email us at breakingviews-podcasts@tr.com. That's breakingviews-podcasts@tr.com. If you liked what you heard, please rate the show and leave us a review. Breaking View's subscribers get access to all our views on the biggest stories in business and finance as they break every day on BreakingViews.com Or you can always sample some of our insights at Reuters.com"},"published_time":"2026-08-20T06:15:07Z","updated_time":"2026-08-20T06:15:07Z","thumbnail":{"url":"https://ajo.prod.reuters.tv/api/v2/img/6a86987be4b0fc7138735142","caption":"The EU envisages €700 bln of annual spending on clean energy, yet only a fraction of that on adapting to already-baked-in warming. 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Full statement available at https://www.thomsonreuters.com/en/policies/copyright.html"},{"key":"package-mood","value":"Neutral"},{"key":"package-notes","value":"Breakingviews, BV, Viewsroom, Aimee Donnellan, Jonathan Guilford"},{"key":"package-format","value":"Other"},{"key":"publisher-name","value":"reuters.com"},{"key":"upstream-title","value":"Europe’s climate crisis"},{"key":"external-asset-id","value":"285_RW631118082026RP1"},{"key":"package-no-social","value":"Yes"},{"key":"package-restrictions","value":"FOR REUTERS PLATFORMS ONLY. For Reuters customers only."},{"key":"upstream-description","value":"The EU envisages €700 bln of annual spending on clean energy, yet only a fraction of that on adapting to already-baked-in warming. In this Viewsroom debate, Breakingviews columnists discuss the inevitable effects on green policy."},{"key":"upstream-channel-code","value":"vty454"}],"usn":"RW631118082026RP1"},{"id":"RW147628072026RP1","type":"video","subtype":"application/x-mpegURL","external_id":"RW147628072026RP1","title":"Shein’s discount IPO","description":"The Chinese-founded fast-fashion retailer is preparing for its Hong Kong float. In this Viewsroom debate, Breakingviews columnists explain how a pushback against its business model in the West may have collapsed its valuation to just $10 bln.","duration":1190.83,"transcript_data":{"transcript":"The views expressed on this podcast are those of the participants, not of Reuters News. The details of Shein's long-awaited IPO in Hong Kong have landed and they are far from a flattering fit. The prospectus for the fast fashion platform, which competes with everyone from Amazon to Zara, Was published on Sunday and revealed that its margins are in tatters and it is facing a lot of pressure in the U.S. and Europe. That marks a dramatic fall from 2022 when there was reports that the company could be valued. About as much as $100 billion. But from Breakingviews' maps, it looks like it's more like $10 billion. It's also lost its Chinese-American face, Donald Tang, who was executive chairman and was brought in to really shepherd this company through this IPO process. So there is a lot to dig into, and that is what we are going to be focusing on the Views Room this week. I'm Aimee Donnellan and I'm Antony Currie, and this is The Views Room, your weekly dive into the biggest stories in economics, corporate finance, and business. So Aimee, you've been looking at Shein a fair bit over the years. We're talking about its IPO, but this is not the first time it's given it a go, nor is it the first location. Just give us a bit of background about this particular non-deal deal. It's quite funny, actually, because it shows the breadth of breaking views that this company has been sort of handed from location to location, from region to region. So starting off with the U.S., it seemed like they were going to do an IPO there. That was definitely New York was the favorite place for them to do a big IPO. But there was a lot of backlash from politicians, Marco Rubio, for example, in the U.S., about their labor practices. It did not look like it was going to do well. So off they went to London. And again, it looked like London. They wanted to list in London. It was not as good as New York, but it would do. The FCA, you know, talked about, you know, how a company like Shein could do an IPO. But ultimately, the Chinese regulator did not like the London IPO idea. So now they are in Hong Kong. Which is where our colleague, Katrina Hamlin, has been going through the prospectus of the company. But, Shein is, I'd say many of our listeners may have seen parcels come through their door that maybe their teenage daughters and sons, Have been buying 10 euro dresses, quite cheap shoes, fast fashion in its like, in its essence, if you will. So yes, let's bring in our guest, Katrina Hamlin. You're very welcome back to Views Room. Thanks for having me. So could you add to that bones of that, Katrina, just that little intro that I've given about the company? What does Shein do? How does it make its money? How is it different from the other fast fashion retailers that we would know? As you've kind of suggested, it's an online fashion retailer. And it's known for, I would say, two things if you're a consumer. One is for being very, very cheap. And the other is for offering a vast range of products, literally millions of products listed there. And for investors, the thing that's interesting about that is, you know, how do they pull that off? They are kind of an asset-like compnay. They don't have shops, obviously, because they're online. And they order in batches directly from the factories that they work with. And they have a system which allows them to refresh their inventory very, very quickly. So if they can see that one particular pair of shorts or flip-flops or whatever is selling really well, then they'll order in more batches very quickly. And they say that that means they never have too much of something. They don't waste resources, And this, in theory, allows them to earn a tidy profit whilst offering lots and lots of choice to, Consumers all over the world. Those factories are based in China, right? And that's where the, like, labor practice question kind of comes about. They do have supply chains in China. Yes, that's where they were founded. So they have deep roots there, and, yes in the past that has led to scrutiny especially over their connections or alleged connections with And that's also one of the issues they've been trying to get away from in very superficial terms. So I recall they took their headquarters to Singapore a few years ago as a way of saying, we are not a Chinese company. And as you mentioned, I think, Aimee, Donald Tang was the Western face of the company. He was executive chair until exceptionally recently. You know, as you said, the Chinese regulators basically put the hold on non-Asian IPO for this company. So it's still basically seen as Chinese by the one country that matters, which is China. But going back to the business, Katrina, almost none of the business, none of the money is made in China. Is that right? That's right. So the routes were in China, but the customers are overseas. And their biggest markets historically have been the U.S. And Europe. And there's a tricky aspect of all of that, right, Katrina, which is that there is, I mean, despite the fact that Amazon exists in both of those markets. They do talk a lot about the fact that they don't like how cheap the stuff that comes in from these countries. I mean, Europe is talking about, you know, sort of the fees on parcels because the value of these products are so low. And the U.S. also brought in a kind of, almost like a tariff, right? For if you were getting one of these parcels that had, like, a $10 dress in it, that you would actually have to pay a fee on that. Yeah, I mean, it raises all kinds of concerns about sustainability and yes, competitiveness, of course. So what's happened recently, and this really comes through in the numbers in the prospectus, Is that the U.S. has removed an exemption they previously had, which meant that very low value parcels wouldn't come with import duties and LOD. And the EU is doing something quite similar. They're introducing a per-item, Three euro fee for low value parcels. So if you have a stash with two bears of shorts and a couple of tops, that's nine euros on top of the price, which was already very low. So that could be a significant percentage. And what we saw in the filing that was quite interesting was the Q1 numbers. Other numbers have kind of jibbled out before in source-based news stories, but we didn't know about the first quarter. If you ignore a one-off charge, they did have a net profit, but it looked like it was lower than it had been in the past. The margin we calculated was just 2.5%, whereas last year we're looking at 5%. And the revenue in the U.S. had also fallen by about 14%, which might reflect the fact that consumers are having to cover some of the costs from these duties. The question that that raises is what the impact of Europe's new fees is going to be, because that wasn't reflected in the Q1 numbers. And some of the language and the prospectus suggested that the trends we've seen in the U.S. could be somewhat similar to the trends that we see in Europe, Which made us think, well, that suggests that margins in Europe could fall as well, which would be very bad news for them. So they're not going to make, well, they're basically going to make almost no money. So I think you looked at it as going down 0.1% margin. So that's the amount of profit that came from the revenue, which is, well, horrendous to say the least. But let's just step back a bit and go back a year or two. What kind of growth were we looking at this company beforehand? Because you said U.S. revenue fell 14%. But overall revenue in the first three months of this year was very slightly up. Is that right? Yeah, global revenue was up 1% in the first quarter. And that's because how would that compare to, say, previous years, assuming we've got those numbers? No, you said it's difficult to get. But what kind of growth were we looking at beforehand? So the prospectus showed us that revenue went up by just 1% in the first quarter of this year. Whereas if we look back to 2024, it was growing by a fifth compared with the year earlier. That's really fast growth Do you know what I think is so interesting about this, though? If you think about how cheap these items are, right, they are so much cheaper than anything that you're really finding in the high street. I'd say maybe Primark in the UK might compete in terms of these, but even still, I would say Shein is slightly cheaper. But what I think is interesting is that putting on a fee, and I would say quite a small fee onto this company, means that the growth slows that much, Which means I think that sort of suggests that maybe the quality or the products aren't that great, That people are happy to buy when it's ultra cheap, but you put it a little bit more into an expensive category, people don't really see the value in it. I think that's kind of interesting. Well, that's what we're going to find out. And that's a really important question to go back to some of the numbers that Antony very briefly mentioned earlier, When we looked at the difference between the margin in the first quarter and the margin last year, basically went from 5% to around 2.5%. So in our model where we tried to work out what does this mean for the IPO, given that they said we might see something like those U.S. trends in Europe, We assumed that that meant, okay, the margin falls by around 2.5 percentage points again. So it's basically around 0.1%. And if you put that onto our estimate for 2026 revenue, which was about $36 billion, then it doesn't get you very much at all. What is it, about $10 billion on your figures, right? Well, actually, this is the lower figure, right? This is where we thought it was getting really bad. If we just assume there was nothing that Sheehan could do about it at 0.1%. What was the value again, Katrina Remind me it was very low. So on our estimates, that would mean that you're looking at earnings for about 500 million a year. And if you apply e-commerce, Chinese e-commerce multiples to that, then that gets you to about $5 billion valuation. Wow. So that's the earnings multiples of what, who are we looking at this, Alibaba or who else? Exactly. We looked at Alibaba, PDD, which owns Temu. That's one of their big rivals. Also JD.com and VIP Shop. Okay. Okay. But I think what we're also looking at there, I think we're being even generous using that, right? Because they're growing faster and their margins are better. So it's not as if, you know, we are giving Shein a big benefit of the doubt even there. And that's on the low number. That's right. And there are different ways of doing this. We could have looked at more retail comps, for example, which would have been slightly higher multiples, maybe sort of 15 times, even 20 times. But when we looked at those companies, again, they're growing a lot faster. They have wider margins. So I think the e-commerce multiples make sense in lots of ways. They're facing similar problems. Let's get to the second stage of that valuation because I think we mentioned, or you mentioned at the top, Aimee, $10 billion. How did you get to that, I know we've kind of sort of given the secret away by saying what we did, but just talk us through exactly what you did to get there. Okay. Well, we started with the assumption that the margins are going to come down again as these fees are introduced in the EU, which brought us to that very, very slim 0.1% net margin assumption. Then we said, well, that's not quite fair because if you're Sky Xu, the founder, looking at what's going on, you're obviously going to make some changes, right? And they have been making changes. They've been doing things like investing in local warehouses so that some of the parcels they're sending are not actually crossing borders. They've been trying to get revenue from providing services to merchants. And they've also been trying to pass on some of the cost to customers. So we gave them a little bit of benefit of the doubt, right? And we actually said, 'Okay, well, suppose he can keep the net margin above 2%.' Then the earnings come in a little bit higher, maybe closer to sort of 800 million this year. Apply those same e-commerce multiples that we were talking about earlier. And I think the average was something 11 times. And that gets you a little bit closer to 10 billion. So still way short of that $100 billion valuation a few years ago. It had come down already, It was $60 billion two or three years ago in the funding round? That's right. So we got a layout of all the different rounds of funding and we were able to see that it had already come down to $60 billion. So, just over $60 billion Our colleagues on the news side have also reported that for this fundraising, the company is looking for a valuation of 40 to 50 billion dollars. So it is going to come down again, even if they get what they want, which could be difficult, as we've shown. Can we put this in a bit of context, Aimee? I mean, look, 2%, 3% margin is terrible for an online company. What were they looking for in the past I mean, even at 5%, it's not a great number, the one they had last year. So, I mean, if you're looking at $60, $100 billion valuation, you've got to have much better margins than that. See, the thing is, I think the way to kind of think about how it seemed they perceived themselves was that they were a growth company, That it was all about revenue growth, that the profit would come as they got bigger, as they sorted out all the different things. But I think that the revenue growth, if I were an investor, I would be most concerned about that, is that they don't seem to be able to sell as much stuff as they were before. And the profits are obviously going to be impacted by all of the different ways in which they're going to be. You know, charges and fees and all that kind of things. But as long as you're growing, you can maybe navigate that. I think that that seems to be a pretty big issue for them. But the other, Katrina, thing I wanted to ask you about is sort of governance, right? Because I remember actually going to the Global Retail Congress and it's where all the big retailers and consumer product people and Donald Tang did a presentation about Shein at that. And it was very clear He didn't say it at the time, they were going to do an IPO and that he was going to be the face. He was this friendly sort of Western face that kind of helped people see it as more of a global company, I would say. But what do you think now is the sort of impact of him leaving if you're thinking about this as a public company and how investors will think about that? Yeah, so there's a few interesting things there. As you say, he was very much the face. The founder, Sky Xu, he's very reclusive and he's avoided the public eye as far as possible, apart from making one speech in China that was very well covered. And I think what's happened now raises a lot of questions about disclosures at the company because while the news team here has reported that Donald Tang has moved on, that isn't clear from the company's disclosures. He doesn't appear in the prospectus, but there also hasn't been a clear statement that I'm aware of that says that he's left. And so I think there's still some questions about how they run and who has what role in the future. Yes, not that this is the definitive version of who's doing what, but his LinkedIn page still has him as executive chair. Got to update that, Mr. Tang So I'm assuming then, let's assume he has gone. Then we've got a chair and CEO in the same person, which is not great for governance. We've also got, I think, dual listed stock. So the current shareholders can have a lot more power. That doesn't sound like it's great governments on top of what looks like not great numbers, Katrina. Yeah, that's true. We'd normally be concerned when you had the CEO and chair with the same position. And in addition, Sky Xu and companies that he controls will be the controlling shareholders. Yeah, we don't know what those numbers are yet, right? Because so many things in this prospectus are redacted. Yes, which is normal in Hong Kong. But we do know that he and his companies will be controlling. Yeah. Okay. So it's a company with governance issues, with earnings issues, with tariff issues, with change at the top in the chair, trying to do an IPO at a lower valuation they want. But at least for Hong Kong, it's yet another IPO. How's Hong Kong going to deal with this? Well, I think it is still something of a coup that such a big name is coming to Hong Kong. But of course, with all of these concerns and question marks and possibly some controversy around the valuation that they've been trying to get, it might end up being less of a triumph for Hong Kong. And also, Hong Kong doesn't need this as much as it perhaps did two, three years ago. The markets actually, Having a good year by some It's the second largest first half, sorry, the second largest six months in terms of ECM volumes on record, according to HKX. London does not have the same numbers. Yes, indeed. Yeah. Nor does Sydney, no. Although, you know, worth noting that a lot of those are secondaries and follow-ons and this is an IPO. So that's always a good thing Yes, it's a lot of activity. The bankers are getting more business. And you're right. Two years ago, if you're looking at these exact same numbers, you'd be worried if you're Hong Kong that yet another IPO is not going to do the job for you. Whereas now it's like, okay, we don't want it to go wrong. But if this is a smaller IPO, we can kind of live with it. We've got lots of other options Thank you, China. But as you said, Anthony, I suppose just to wrap that you have a company that has really kind of dramatically changed from when it first thought about listing in New York, then London. Yeah, so thanks so much, Katrina And just to let everyone know, we are taking a two week holiday break from the newsroom. So we will see you back in the second half of August. Thank you. Thanks for tuning in. This podcast was produced by Sheryl Pena in New York and Gregory Garner in Toronto. You can check out a new episode of The Views Room every Thursday. And don't forget to tune in to our sister show, The Big View, every Tuesday, as well as all the other great podcasts from the Reuters team. To get in touch with feedback, questions and ideas, please email us at breakingviews-podcasts at tr.com. That's breakingviews-podcasts If you liked what you heard, please rate the show and leave us a review. Breaking View subscribers get access to all our views on the biggest stories in business and finance as they break every day on BreakingViews.com. Or you can always sample some of our insights at Reuters.com."},"published_time":"2026-07-30T06:45:12Z","updated_time":"2026-07-30T06:45:14Z","thumbnail":{"url":"https://ajo.prod.reuters.tv/api/v2/img/6a6af0bde4b016e68daf59f0","caption":"The Chinese-founded fast-fashion retailer is preparing for its Hong Kong float. In this Viewsroom debate, Breakingviews columnists explain how a pushback against its business model in the West may have collapsed its valuation to just $10 bln.","type":"image","resizer_url":"https://ajo.prod.reuters.tv/api/v2/img/6a6af0bde4b016e68daf59f0"},"source":{"hls":"https://ajo.prod.reuters.tv/v3/playlist/784440/master.m3u8"},"channels":[{"id":"Breakingviews","name":"Breakingviews","regions":["UK","US"]},{"id":"HPUS","name":"RCOM Homepage US","regions":["US"]}],"advert_info":{"advert_params":[{"key":"adfriendly","value":true}],"advert_zone":"/4735792/reuters.com"},"meta_data":[{"key":"link","value":"tag:reuters.com,2026:newsml_RW147628072026RP1:4"},{"key":"byline","value":"VARIOUS"},{"key":"hidden","value":"false"},{"key":"region","value":"Remote"},{"key":"dateline","value":"Reuters, Reuters, JUL 30"},{"key":"lmp-feed","value":"lp"},{"key":"copyright","value":"(c) 2026 Thomson Reuters, unless otherwise identified. Full statement available at https://www.thomsonreuters.com/en/policies/copyright.html"},{"key":"package-mood","value":"Neutral"},{"key":"package-notes","value":"Breakingviews, BV, Viewsroom, Aimee Donnellan, Antony Currie, Katrina Hamlin"},{"key":"package-format","value":"Other"},{"key":"publisher-name","value":"reuters.com"},{"key":"upstream-title","value":"Shein’s discount IPO"},{"key":"external-asset-id","value":"285_RW147628072026RP1"},{"key":"package-no-social","value":"Yes"},{"key":"package-restrictions","value":"FOR REUTERS PLATFORMS ONLY. For Reuters customers only."},{"key":"upstream-description","value":"The Chinese-founded fast-fashion retailer is preparing for its Hong Kong float. In this Viewsroom debate, Breakingviews columnists explain how a pushback against its business model in the West may have collapsed its valuation to just $10 bln."},{"key":"upstream-channel-code","value":"vty454"}],"usn":"RW147628072026RP1"},{"id":"RW974421072026RP1","type":"video","subtype":"application/x-mpegURL","external_id":"RW974421072026RP1","title":"The AI hacking wave is here","description":"From a cyberattack on Jaguar Land Rover to state espionage, hackers are growing more powerful in the chatbot era. In this Viewsroom debate, Breakingviews columnists discuss whether potential victims can mount a defense.","duration":1135.63,"transcript_data":{"transcript":"The views expressed on this podcast are those of the participants, not of Reuters News. The AI boom is supposed to deliver eye-watering productivity gains to the world's biggest companies. But what if those productivity gains, what if the very thing, the artificial intelligence that is helping companies, is also exposing them to greater risks? So JPMorgan boss Jamie Dimon reckons that the $2 billion he spent on AI has already roughly delivered the same productivity gains, and he reckons that's just the tip of the iceberg. So that's the good news But actually, if you look at what McKinsey is saying, they reckon that since the Chachiviti, since that very first launch, that phishing scams have gone up 138%. So think of the kind of companies that have been already attacked. So Coca-Cola, Nike, Jaguar Land Rover, Marks & Spencers in the UK. And for these corporate victims, the risks are not only—I mean, in some cases, they can actually be detrimental—but also extremely expensive. But that actually could be good news for the likes of CrowdStrike and Palo Alto networks who are coming up with new defenses for these new risks. So that's what we're going to dig into on The Views Room today. If you are one of these cybersecurity firms, I mean, is this the dawn that everyone thought was coming? And what can they do to offer proper defenses to these companies. I'm Aimee Donnellan and I'm Jonathan Guildford, and this is The Views Room, your weekly dive into the world of politics, economics, and finance. And yeah, this is an interesting one, Aimee, because like you say, there's sort of like a race going on between all of this incredible bounty promised by AI in the wake of the Cheshire PT revolution, And then this incredibly dark edge to everything where now every computer is essentially a vector for some new novel kind of attack. And that extends beyond just, like you were saying, huge rise in phishing scams. Obviously, you have the Lying Machine that can just spit out human-like text. So, obviously, amazing for a phishing But then also, it's able to do all this novel stuff with code and whatnot. Perhaps there's new forms of attacks through hardware that we think of as totally ordinary, maybe new vulnerabilities to be found in routers and so on. And there's, all the ways this ramifies through kind of government anxieties over, Not just great power competition, but also general kind of control of what their own citizens have access to. So you have the Trump administration kind of pausing and then allowing again and then freezing access to some leading AI models. You have, I think Jamie Dimon was saying, like, you know, maybe the public shouldn't have access to something that is as powerful as Claude's vaunted Mythos model. And of course that flies in the face of kind of wild west techno libertarian utopianism. So a lot going on here to say the very, very, very least. Very, very, very least. There is. And also, I think, John, that if you kind of think back before these AI models, Because you're right, like, the sort of 'the sky is the limit' in terms of actually how you could use AI to help you with the phishing scam. So think about you can actually write an email in the tone of somebody's manager. So that is completely novel. What people, you know, what hackers had been doing was writing emails, lots of grammar, lots of spelling mistakes. They were kind of quite easy to spot. And the idea was they just sent as many of these things out as possible, hoping for some gullible person would just click on a link and download something and that they would get in. But yes, they can do much higher volumes and a much more sophisticated way of doing this. So let's talk to our guests about this. We have Robert Cyran, an associate editor in New York, and Sebastian Pellejero, who is a columnist in New York. Both have, I think, a very keen interest in cyber. So, Rob, Sebastian, you're very welcome. So Rob, can we start with this AI boom? Cybersecurity has been described as this hot market for a very long time, but there's been a bunch of false dawns. How does AI change this? How does it help these companies? Well, it increases the amount of hacking that's going on, which is going to obviously help increase the value of defense. This is a long-running trend. The IMF came out with a study saying the number of cyber incidents, hacking, whatever, has gone up tenfold in the past decade. So, you know, this isn't a new trend. But what it does is, as you've kind of said, it makes, Obviously, it's easier for people who don't know anything at all about ArrayAround computing. Just as it's easy to create an app now, it's very easy to create something to rip off people. It increases the ability of experienced hackers because they can run a bunch of scripts at the same time and kind of automate what they're doing. And it also makes it more capable, We've seen a number of, when Claude came out with one of its newer models recently, there were a bunch of zero-day attacks. Least in other words, vulnerabilities in software that are serious and omnipresent. And those happen relatively infrequently, but suddenly there are a lot of them being found. So that causes some problems. And so what this all means is, and you combine it with some other things, like, for instance, the rise of crypto. That means it's very easy to pay off hackers if they take control of your system. And what it all means, it's creating a very fertile atmosphere for these sorts of attacks. And people are going to take advantage And of course, what does that mean. It means that existing companies are going to keep on growing who provide cybersecurity and also provides new niches for them to secure against. You know, the growth area, what, about 20 years ago was phones. Suddenly, you know, everyone went from PCs and suddenly there were phones available. And then suddenly it took a while, but then tax took off on phones as people started using phones. And we're going to see the same sort of things happen here. It creates just a lot more vulnerability. And also, like we said, you know, people are just spending a lot more time and money on the internet. And so obviously that means a lot more vulnerability and areas to be stolen from. I'm curious because I think, just as somebody who kind of has followed private equity deal-making a lot over the years, the impression I've had is that cybersecurity is this, Oddball area where you have these waves or generations of, as Amy was saying, these incredibly hot companies that suddenly, like, shoot up in value, go, like, totally parabolic. And then there's a generational change over and the old generation all gets swept up by some private equity roll up. And then we all move on to the next new thing. And like I was saying, it's tied to these kind of like paradigm shifts, but AI feels, I don't know like whether it fits into that same kind of paradigm because it's like it's so entirely novel and I can almost imagine a world, Where it's like, the only defense against a bad guy with an LLM is a good guy with an LLM and kind of like whether it makes every other tool obsolete or, I presume I'm just thinking about this too simplistically, right, that there's a bunch of stuff, whether it's network security or all this stuff that helps you in this world still, That it doesn't just immediately obsolete a bunch of software like we've seen in other parts of the software market. I think you're partially right, I mean, this doesn't mean that network security goes away or the existing areas go away. It's just a lot more opportunity out there. And there's going to be obviously a lot more crime as a result of that. And so does it mean that, like you said, there have been these waves, but these waves have been very different. You think about going from a PC. Sure, it's a bit different, but is it really that different as opposed to having a technology where suddenly you can automate hundreds of attacks going on simultaneously? That seems like, obviously, and kind of simplistically, but it's also true, it's a much bigger deal. And Seb, can you talk us through, I guess, these kind of stories? I think they come to life when you really see the kinds of scams that people can pull off now with AI. So what exactly can AI do that, you know, these hackers weren't able to do before? Yeah, so as you described earlier, the first thing that AI did was make classic scams dramatically better. Industry surveys show that roughly one in six data breaches now involves attackers using AI. And the amount of AI-ridden text in spam emails has doubled in just two years. Phishing, as you mentioned, used to rely on bad grammar and generic templates. And now every email can be fluent and personalized and produced at infinite scale. And deepfakes. Or video attacks have compromised the fallback because verifying on video no longer provides the same comfort. But I'd say the real shift came last November when Anthropic disclosed the first espionage campaign actually run by AI. Chinese state-sponsored hackers essentially handed The AI did. You know, 80 to 90 percent of the work itself, scanning targets, breaking in, stealing credentials, and hauling out data. You know, the humans just picked the victims and signed off on about 30 organizations to hit. So effectively, you know, the barrier to entry has collapsed. What used to take a heroic effort now really requires only a laptop and a subscription. But here's the piece I think markets are missing. AI isn't just attacking software, it's also writing it. Nearly half of all new code on GitHub is AI generated, and that's heading to 60% by year end. And that code leaks. Roughly one in four AI generated samples contains a security flaw, which is about double the human rate. So, AI is doing two things. It's arming the burglars and it's also building houses with more unlocked windows. And so that raises the question, if AI can automate the attack, maybe it can also automate defense too, possibly without today's vendors that we know so well. The market got a taste of that in April when the whole sector sort of dropped double digits percentages in a day. So I think that's sort of where we are. Yeah, it's interesting because it's like you look at that and it's like AI is leaving. The vulnerabilities behind that only AI can fix and you end up with this recursive loop where using AI requires you to use more AI to fix the AI problems that AI would then exploit. It's just a really, really odd feedback loop. But of course, I'm guessing no engineer is going to be like, oh, well, there's some occasional faults in the code. I'm just going to give up having my productivity 10x'd and go back to hand coding. That's just not going to happen. Yeah, and to be fair, it seems like the AI is very effective, right? Like part of the reason that we saw, you know, the mythos sort of debacle with the White House at Anthropic just months ago was, Because of how effective mythos was at finding vulnerabilities in a variety of code bases, right? And early indications are that, you know, claims are sort of being reduced at the larger firms because they're able to catch attacks earlier. So criminals are moving down market to mid-sized firms and smaller firms where the defenses are thinner as well. I'm interested in that because Amy, I know you've also been delving into this topic, right? And you've been looking across kind of not only what's been happening to the valuations of like the cyber defense companies themselves, But also the reactive function among insurers and how people are protecting themselves. Like, do you want to walk us through that a little bit? Because it sounds like kind of what what Sebastian's saying here is that that whole threat landscape or whatever you want to call it is just like totally, totally changing. And, like, the value you can extract from protecting people and the nature of people you're protecting is just changing. It is, absolutely. And when you talk to the companies themselves, like the cyber defense companies, They are very much talking about AI and how they are using AI to monitor behind the scenes, like a company. So for example, they will talk about if somebody sends you an email, like let's say that because they can replicate the tone of a manager, that obviously doesn't like that. That's very difficult to spot. But what they can spot is a change in behavior. So they can spot whether, let's say, my manager, I'm always asking my manager questions. I'm always saying, when do you want this delivered? And then all of a sudden, my manager is saying to me, deliver this, you know, at X date. And send it to this email or send it to this download, this thing that they can spot that and go, this is not normal behavior for this. So that's that's one of the ways in which they think they can offer value and they are investing and they're buying companies. But yeah, like valuation wise, it certainly looks like investors think this time is actually different that, Despite, what Rob was saying about the amount of hacks increasing over 10 years. The valuations didn't really support that. You still didn't really see the valuations of these companies really increasing until recently. And CrowdStrike is a very good example. If you think about even, I would say, 2023, they were valued at maybe 65 times their expected earnings. I mean, I do have a graph like right in front of me there now at like 124 times. So there is great expectations, I think, for the for the cyber firms themselves. And then, with the piece that I wrote recently was kind of basically saying that like the insurers in some ways are like the best salesmen for cybersecurity, Because insurance companies are now demanding that companies have even greater levels of cyber protection in order to get a policy that would protect them against a breach. So they want to know that, as you know, maybe to use Sev's analogy about the doors locked, They want to know that the doors are locked and that somebody, yeah, maybe Jimmy the door open, but the door was locked to begin with. So that, yeah, that is also driving, I think, demand more, will drive more demand for cyber protection. I find that part about the behavioral tests so, so fascinating. I can't wait to enter the stage where we're doing the Voight-Kampff test to everybody in every company. Yeah, just to round this out a little bit then, I do wonder, so you're talking about people want to make sure that you're doing something to lock the doors. I'm curious, Robin said, what you think about this, because I can imagine that cybersecurity is one of those things in the past where, Obviously, in the financial sector and so on, you have pretty tough regulatory inspections that are making sure that people are keeping on top of this. But ultimately, it's a cost center, right? And if there's one thing that we've seen about corporate pathologies, it's that cost centers always get neglected over and over and over again. And I'm just curious as to, I guess, just given those corporate pathologies and given just the scale of the tools anybody has at their disposal, I can go out and essentially like, Maybe this is being a little bit glib about it, but like, all of the hyperscalers, Amazon, everybody, they're building like a bunch of servers that I could go and use to then attack somebody. Like, you know, the greatest CapEx build we've ever seen is giving me the tools to go out and do a bunch of this stuff. So like, is it just totally hopeless, do you think? Like, can anybody ever like come up to the scale of this? I'll just say that cybersecurity is something you're constantly battling and it's constantly being reinvented. Criminals are not staying firm and rigid in their approaches as new defenses come out. And for this reason, companies are desperate to spend on these capabilities. I think Bank of America CEO Brian Moynihan famously said his cyber budget was unlimited and that was back in 2015. Now the issues have only grown, I'd say The trouble is sort of that yesterday's breakthrough becomes tomorrow's commodity, right? Like every clever point solution gets copied or bundled or undercut. And so, you're constantly reinventing your defenses to manage this. And that's in part why one of the biggest winners in security has been Microsoft, who has built a giant, I think, $37 billion business, which is bigger than some of the major names we've described. You know, mostly by folding securities contracts that the companies were already signing. So it does seem like this is, you know, a sector where reinvention is the norm and thus makes it a bit more difficult for vendors historically to build moats. Yeah, it strikes me there are some analogies with global warming in that it's kind of like everyone's issue, but no one wants to deal with it. And just the same thing where insurers are the ones who are forcing change because they see the damage that comes on, And they know the damage that is increasing, they have to reduce their liability. The problem is that everyone ignores it until it gets really big. And we've seen some increasingly big attacks like the 2024 attack against change healthcare, It basically stopped payment to like a quarter of doctors in America and people were getting the prescriptions and you have to think okay, that is 2024, They're gonna be bigger attacks in the future and the IMF is actually warning that, a cyber event could, cause economic harm across the world, Everyone's kind of thinking about this and saying oh, yeah, that's maybe that'll happen. But you know. And we won't worry about it until it happens. If that does happen, then suddenly everyone will get religion and, you know, then you'll see evaluations really rocket, I imagine, as people start to take this seriously. Who will be the credit turnbook of cybersecurity. We all wait to see. All right. With that, I think that's a great place to wrap it up. Rob, thank you so much for joining us on The Views Room. Thanks for tuning in. This podcast was produced by Sheryl Pena in New York and Gregory Garner in Toronto. You can check out a new episode of The Views Room every Thursday. And don't forget to tune into our sister show, The Big View, every Tuesday, as well as all the other great podcasts from the Reuters team. To get in touch with feedback, questions and ideas, please email us at breakingviews-podcasts at tr.com. That's breakingviews-podcasts at tr.com. If you liked what you heard, please rate the show and leave us a review. Breaking View's subscribers get access to all our views on the biggest stories in business and finance as they break every day on breakingviews.com. Or you can always sample some of our insights at reuters.com."},"published_time":"2026-07-23T06:45:30Z","updated_time":"2026-07-23T06:45:32Z","thumbnail":{"url":"https://ajo.prod.reuters.tv/api/v2/img/6a61b644e4b0de33e250c261","caption":"From a cyberattack on Jaguar Land Rover to state espionage, hackers are growing more powerful in the chatbot era. In this Viewsroom debate, Breakingviews columnists discuss whether potential victims can mount a defense.","type":"image","resizer_url":"https://ajo.prod.reuters.tv/api/v2/img/6a61b644e4b0de33e250c261"},"source":{"hls":"https://ajo.prod.reuters.tv/v3/playlist/783886/master.m3u8"},"channels":[{"id":"Breakingviews","name":"Breakingviews","regions":["UK","US"]},{"id":"HPUS","name":"RCOM Homepage US","regions":["US"]}],"advert_info":{"advert_params":[{"key":"adfriendly","value":true}],"advert_zone":"/4735792/reuters.com"},"meta_data":[{"key":"link","value":"tag:reuters.com,2026:newsml_RW974421072026RP1:4"},{"key":"byline","value":"VARIOUS"},{"key":"hidden","value":"false"},{"key":"region","value":"Remote"},{"key":"dateline","value":"Reuters, Reuters, JUL 23"},{"key":"lmp-feed","value":"lp"},{"key":"copyright","value":"(c) 2026 Thomson Reuters, unless otherwise identified. Full statement available at https://www.thomsonreuters.com/en/policies/copyright.html"},{"key":"package-mood","value":"Neutral"},{"key":"package-notes","value":"Breakingviews, BV, Viewsroom, Aimee Donnellan, Jonathan Guilford, Robert Cyran, Sebastian Pellejero"},{"key":"package-format","value":"Other"},{"key":"publisher-name","value":"reuters.com"},{"key":"upstream-title","value":"The AI hacking wave is here"},{"key":"external-asset-id","value":"285_RW974421072026RP1"},{"key":"package-no-social","value":"Yes"},{"key":"package-restrictions","value":"FOR REUTERS PLATFORMS ONLY. For Reuters customers only."},{"key":"upstream-description","value":"From a cyberattack on Jaguar Land Rover to state espionage, hackers are growing more powerful in the chatbot era. In this Viewsroom debate, Breakingviews columnists discuss whether potential victims can mount a defense."},{"key":"upstream-channel-code","value":"vty454"}],"usn":"RW974421072026RP1"},{"id":"RW790714072026RP1","type":"video","subtype":"application/x-mpegURL","external_id":"RW790714072026RP1","title":"China’s wealth crackdown","description":"Beijing’s tightening grip on cross-border flows could threaten Hong Kong’s new status as a top offshore hub. In this Viewsroom debate, Breakingviews columnists discuss what it means for HSBC, AIA and China’s economy.","duration":1104.8,"transcript_data":{"transcript":"The views expressed on this podcast are those of the participants, not of Reuters News. After a tricky few years, Hong Kong is back in business. IPOs are on the up and the financial center has overtaken Switzerland as the world's largest wealth center. But that confidence is now facing a new test. Beijing has unexpectedly stepped up a crackdown on offshore investments, raising questions about how far its support for Hong Kong extends. Regulators have fined brokerages for helping mainland investors buy U.S. stocks. While Hong Kong officials are urging financial firms to make sure money moves through approved channels. Together, these moves suggest that China is becoming less comfortable with the long tolerated grey area around capital controls that have benefited banks and insurers like HSBC and AIA. So, why is Beijing tightening scrutiny over money flows. What does it tell us about the Chinese economy? And what does it mean for global financial firms with a stake in Hong Kong? All of this and more is in this week's Viewsroom. I am Aimee Donnellan and I'm Una Galani and this is The Viewsroom, your weekly deep dive into the biggest stories in business, economics and corporate finance. Now, Aimee, as you said, like the timing of this is really spectacular and quite unexpected. You know, Hong Kong just overtook Switzerland as the world's largest cross-border wealth hub. It was like a moment to be celebrated for, you know, many financiers at least or wealth bankers. But in the very same week, literally the same week, China launched this crackdown and it was almost as if they were saying, you know, Let's not ignore the elephant in the room here, which is that Hong Kong's success as a wealth hub has very much been built on China's willingness to turn a blind eye to money bypassing its capital controls, flowing from the mainland and into the city. And, it's really important to remember, and I think people forget this, is that Chinese people are really only allowed to take $50,000 out of the country or the equivalent of $50,000. But the growth of wealth in Hong Kong really suggests money has been moving at a much faster rate. I know. So, I mean, from the outside, it looks like there is still quite a lot of tension, right, between China and Hong Kong. And I have to say, before I start reading a lot of what Ka Sing, our guest today, had been writing, I sort of assumed that China really had always been quite wanting to curtail Hong Kong, That they were never comfortable with Hong Kong being this financial center that allowed all of this. But Maybe before we sort of say that things have changed, how was China accepting of this? Why did they allow it, do you think? But I think it's such a complicated issue. What's really become clear in the last few months and year, I would say, is that Hong Kong really has China's strong backing as a financial center, As its capital market, sort of access to hard currency gateway to the world. What is less clear, or what has become less clear in the last couple of weeks or months, Is whether Hong Kong has China's backing also as a wealth hub. And that's the distinction here. So, I mean, the thing to remember is that money flowing out of mainland China also can be beneficial for China. It gives people higher yielding investments to make returns. China doesn't really have a big social safety net. So this is a real help, right So you don't want all these aging people depending on your health system. So that can be helpful, right It can also help to alleviate some of the pressure on the yuan, the currency there. And, you know, the money's not going that far. Initially, it's just coming to Hong Kong. The problem is, is that, you know, where does that money go from Hong Kong? And, you know, is it Is it too little? And then again, and then the other wrinkle here is what channels is that money flowing through? Is it going through the banks? Is it going through insurers? Is it going through other mechanisms? And that's some of the stuff I think we should discuss here. Yeah, absolutely. So, yes, without further ado, let's bring in our guest today, who is Ka Sing Chan, who has been writing absolutely loads about this, especially since May, as you said. So Ka Sing, you're very welcome back to the views room. Hi. So Ka Sing, as we said, this seemed to really ratchet up in May. I think this has kind of been bubbling along for a while now, but it really kind of came to the fore in May. So what? We saw brokerages being fined. Why do you think Beijing is cracking? Just to try and answer this question. What do you think was the sort of spark for this? This issue has dominated conversation among bankers and investors for a long time. Several theories have emerged. I think these can offer a glimpse on why Beijing is doing it now. First, when Beijing first moved against illegal offshore stock trading with the net-stabilistic futile, or something, investors quickly linked it to fiscal pressures. That the Chinese government is short of money, the real estate market is bad, so they turn their eyes to equity markets. But well, this theory is simple, keep trading onshore, keep the stamp duties onshore. So some went as far as saying, warning tax officials might actually come after unpaid capital tax gain tax for Chinese individuals. Then that would be a nightmare. A second theory is tied to the China-U.S. tax race. The argument is that Beijing is uncomfortable I'm increasingly uncomfortable with the huge valuation gap between Chinese and American tech stocks. For example, Nvidia alone is worth about five times of the combined market value of all overseas listed Chinese tech stocks, including Tencent and Alibaba. Let me repeat five times. That's amazing, that's quite a step. So under this view, Beijing may want to discourage Chinese money from flowing into U.S. tech stock to help the enemy. Then we have the official explanation that Beijing says it has never opposed our bank investment. It's actually encouraged, especially for corporates to go, Corporates is going global through the Belt and In fact, if Hong Kong Financial Secretary Paul Chan's remarks are any guide, Beijing actually wants to push the yuan global more quickly. Hong Kong to take on a bigger role But the point is, before they can open the gate, Hong Kong has to earn the trust of Beijing. That is to put the financial system in order first. They are not only helping a wealthy individual to move money offshore, but they can also take on the role to help Beijing achieve some bigger goals, Such as helping Chinese families to go global. This all sounds really different to what we saw happen like a decade ago, right? When China had its capital flight crisis and panic drove, I think it was nearly a trillion dollars out of the country. It sounds like you're saying that China wants money to flow overseas, but through some proper channels. I mean, how does it compare to that crisis back then? What do you see as the similarities and differences now? I think the only similarity is the phrase capital clampdown. I think it's useful, very useful to look at, to remember not only about the capital control 10 years ago in 2015, but also the sequence of events that happened, Prior to that. For example, to begin with, Mr. Xi Jinping just came into power for a few years at that time. And he just launched the Belt and Road Initiative, which is a massive infrastructure built out overseas. That is also meant to help push the yuan, the renminbi, Chinese currency global. Yes, Beijing at the time was on track for a raft of foreign currency reform to push in an orderly way. But then all of a sudden, what happened was the dramatic stock market crash of 2015. And worse, that was quickly followed by a surge in capital outflows, if you remember. Actually, I think we all remember that at the time, the Chinese firms like the names, you name it, M Bank, M Bank Insurance, Wanda, H&A were snapping everything inside, ranging from the AMC cinemas to the Midland Football Cup, everything. And then, this is when Beijing field defense are getting out of control its instinct is usually to go conservative, And go contractive and that's what happening in 2015 and so if we compare it to what happened to then and now I think the situation is quite different So, I mean, obviously the brokerages have been fined, but I think for our listeners, And certainly for Breaking View's readers, HSBC, AIA, the large insurer, these are, I mean, how is this crackdown going to impact them? Because obviously they are in some ways a conduit for these investments, right? Kind of getting money out of Hong Kong and then going to wherever it needs to go. What are the kind of markets telling us about how investors see this situation, how bad it is for them? I think the share price of some of the biggest financial firms like HSBC and AIA dipped quite a bit immediately in the first week of the news broke, But they have largely recovered, especially for the larger players like HSBC. HSBC and AIA are two of the most important financial names you can imagine linked to Hong Kong. AIA was founded in Shanghai more than 100 years ago, and HSBC has the name Hong Kong and Shanghai written on its name. I think at AIA, it generates about 40% of new businesses in Hong Kong. HSBC also generate a lot of new revenue from here. That means that fortunes are actually very closely tied to the flow of Chinese capital through Hong Kong. I think the most important question is, then this is the role of Hong Kong as a finance hub. To China's national strategy If this is the goal for China to make Hong Kong a financial hub, then international firms like HSBC and AIA will feel certain, no matter some of the short-term uncertainty. I guess some of the numbers you had in your piece really grabbed me cussing. It's just that HSBC has 7 million customers in Hong Kong, but the population of Hong Kong is only 7.5 million. So it really tells you that 50% of deposit growth has come from new customers since early 2023, and about 70% of that has come from non-residents. So, you know, equally, like life insurance sales in the city jumped 50% last year to a record $42 billion. These are all numbers from your story. And I guess my question is, what does this crackdown mean for their growth? And who do you think looks more Is it the banks or is it the insurers? I mean, when I look at the Hong Kong insurers, what I find is really interesting is In the West, we think of insurance as a protection product. Do you buy it in case of an emergency. But in Hong Kong and in many parts of Asia, insurers sell insurance as savings products primarily. And that really, for me, is in the kind of gray zone of what, really, Beijing wants people to spend their money on overseas. So how do you think about who's going to be worst impacted in all of this? I think the world business is certainly going to be under a bit of pressure. The writing is Beijing's policy signals have been very clear. First, it welcomes outbound investment, but they have to go through legal channels. This is important to define. The outbound investment, which we define into corporate flow and retail flow, and it becomes very interesting. Yes, Beijing has repeatedly said that it wants Hong Kong to be an international finance hub. This is written in its five-year plan. But does it mean that Hong Kong also has to be a wealth hub? I don't think it is exactly what is a financial hub, but maybe it's just part of the role of a financial hub. So what it means is for the banks, the high margin business, which is the wealth, will be under pressure a bit, but Beijing will actually encourage to turn to corporate flows. That is about, Chinese companies like BYD and PetroChina, they were going overseas to buy deals. They can come to Hong Kong and take their financial service. Then it still means big business for banks But then the margin will be It depends on, maybe, Pi is bigger, but the margins But all in all, I think it is important to remember that if Hong Kong continues to thrive as a financial hub, so will the largest financial firms in Hong Kong here. I think that's, I mean, I agree with that. I will just push back a little bit though, because it's not exact. I mean, I mean, you're right. Like they will still see growth, but that is not the kind of growth that they envisioned, right? These are completely different businesses. Like corporate banking services is the kind of really boring business. It's like, Very low margin. I think HSBC's corporate banking segment made a 15% return on tangible equity. But the Hong Kong division, which is supported by the recurring wealth fees it made, earned a 35% return on equity. That's night and day. They're just completely different. They're just completely different businesses. Yes, it really depends on how big are the pies and what is the ultimate strategies of Beijing. As this is good that we compare with what happened in 2015, that after in 2015, the clampdown followed with control on capital control and backtrack on forest reform. But on this case, it seems to be exactly the opposite. That's Beijing, clearing the channel To make sure that the flow will go through legitimate country that it can control. And then we could see Beijing actually start to push the Yuan global more quickly. I think it's also a good, I think sensible move, given what happened around the world, how the world geopolitics has made the world less safe. These days and the demand for alternatives other than the dollar. So if the pie grow big enough, I think that can offset the pressure on the higher margin wealth business. Yeah, that's really interesting. I'm sort of curious here, Kirsten, because I mean, if you think about the wider world and what's going on, is that the Middle East, Dubai is sort of losing some of its, I guess, its cache as a wealth center just because of what's going on, which creates quite an opportunity for Hong Kong. And Hong Kong has overtaken Switzerland as a wealth center, which is quite incredible. So what do you think this all means for that status? As in, is that likely to continue if you do have this crackdown? Do people, high net worth individuals still want to move to Hong Kong if they think that this is sort of bubbling away in the background and they don't know really where it's going? I think the wealth business globally is growing Dubai is growing, Singapore is growing, Hong Kong is growing. In fact, I think it actually reflects the reality that investors want to stay invested, but they want to stay diversified. So that's why, And then for Beijing, I think they will love to see more money flowing from Dubai and Switzerland to Hong Kong, definitely no questions. But the opposite traffic, I'm not quite sure. So, interesting Ka Sing. I have a feeling you're going to be writing a lot more about this and hopefully we'll get to chat to you again. Thanks so much. Thanks. Bye. Thanks for tuning in. This podcast was produced by Sheryl Pena in New York and Gregory Garner in Toronto. You can check out a new episode of The Viewsroom every Thursday. And don't forget to tune into our sister show, The Big View, every Tuesday, as well as all the other great podcasts from the Reuters team. To get in touch with feedback, questions and ideas, please email us at breakingviews-podcasts at tr.com. That's breakingviews-podcasts If you liked what you heard, please rate the show and leave us a review. Breaking Views subscribers get access to all our views on the biggest stories in business and finance as they break every day on breakingviews.com. Or you can always sample some of our insights at reuters.com."},"published_time":"2026-07-16T06:41:45Z","updated_time":"2026-07-16T06:41:47Z","thumbnail":{"url":"https://ajo.prod.reuters.tv/api/v2/img/6a587af7e4b00783ae7421e1","caption":"Beijing’s tightening grip on cross-border flows could threaten Hong Kong’s new status as a top offshore hub. In this Viewsroom debate, Breakingviews columnists discuss what it means for HSBC, AIA and China’s economy.","type":"image","resizer_url":"https://ajo.prod.reuters.tv/api/v2/img/6a587af7e4b00783ae7421e1"},"source":{"hls":"https://ajo.prod.reuters.tv/v3/playlist/783165/master.m3u8"},"channels":[{"id":"Breakingviews","name":"Breakingviews","regions":["UK","US"]},{"id":"HPUS","name":"RCOM Homepage US","regions":["US"]}],"advert_info":{"advert_params":[{"key":"adfriendly","value":true}],"advert_zone":"/4735792/reuters.com"},"meta_data":[{"key":"link","value":"tag:reuters.com,2026:newsml_RW790714072026RP1:4"},{"key":"byline","value":"VARIOUS"},{"key":"hidden","value":"false"},{"key":"region","value":"Remote"},{"key":"dateline","value":"Reuters, Reuters, JUL 16"},{"key":"lmp-feed","value":"lp"},{"key":"copyright","value":"(c) 2026 Thomson Reuters, unless otherwise identified. Full statement available at https://www.thomsonreuters.com/en/policies/copyright.html"},{"key":"package-mood","value":"Neutral"},{"key":"package-notes","value":"Breakingviews, BV, Viewsroom, Aimee Donnellan, Una Galani, Ka Sing Chan"},{"key":"package-format","value":"Other"},{"key":"publisher-name","value":"reuters.com"},{"key":"upstream-title","value":"China’s wealth crackdown"},{"key":"external-asset-id","value":"285_RW790714072026RP1"},{"key":"package-no-social","value":"Yes"},{"key":"package-restrictions","value":"FOR REUTERS PLATFORMS ONLY. For Reuters customers only."},{"key":"upstream-description","value":"Beijing’s tightening grip on cross-border flows could threaten Hong Kong’s new status as a top offshore hub. In this Viewsroom debate, Breakingviews columnists discuss what it means for HSBC, AIA and China’s economy."},{"key":"upstream-channel-code","value":"vty454"}],"usn":"RW790714072026RP1"},{"id":"RW594507072026RP1","type":"video","subtype":"application/x-mpegURL","external_id":"RW594507072026RP1","title":"Comcast models TV crack-up","description":"US giant Comcast will split into separate media and cable companies. In this week’s Viewsroom, Breakingviews columnists play out the deals that could follow, and why any buyer could just inherit the same doom loop.","duration":1033.83,"transcript_data":{"transcript":"The views expressed on this podcast are those of the participants, not of Reuters News. What do you do with a colossus after you have spent decades building it up? Well, if you're Brian Roberts, the boss of Comcast, I think the answer is you are going to just have to split it up. The cable and media industry that he thought was going to go in one direction has actually veered off into another. And how the landscape has completely shifted and changed is what we're going to focus on on this week's Views Room. I'm Aimee Donnellan, and I'm Jonathan Guildford, and this is The Views Room, your weekly dive into the biggest stories in business, economics, and finance. And Aimee, it used to be that Comcast was basically the biggest story around. I mean, Brian Roberts was a colossus bestriding the landscape. So like you said, cable on one side, media on another. He married them in the biggest way back in the late 2000s when Comcast ended up pouncing in this kind of slow multi-step process on NBC Universal. Obviously there you've got a broadcast network, you've got a movie studio, you've got like all this other stuff, and it was this sprawling entity that like raised a lot of hackles at the time. You had another big cable deal that they tried to do, the regulators blocked, you had a whole bunch of agitator over, oh my goodness, you know, it's like some new Citizen Kane-esque empire that is bestriding the landscape. And now, like you said, like we've seen so many other empires before, it kind of crumble into pieces. You had AT&T and Time Warner splitting apart. You had Verizon, they tried to push into sort of mediary, into that adjacent stuff. And then they all just gave up the ghost on that. Comcast had a better run for longer, but ultimately it's come to the exact same place and You know, I mean, this doesn't mean that Roberts is going to be over with deal making yet, right? I mean, I mean, we've seen like an outpost of his empire do something in the UK recently, right? Absolutely. And I think it's it's one of these it's one of these stories that I think it brings in so many different companies that we all know about. So Netflix, Universal, all of these really interesting companies. And I kind of want to delve straight into it, because I think Jen Saba, who is going to be our guest this week, who's an associate editor in the US, will have all of the answers. So, Jen, you're very welcome. Hello. And wow, all the answers. Thanks for that vote of confidence, Aimee. Well, you're one of my favorite guests on the Views Room, Jen, because I think you're always you're always entertaining, which suits the industry that you that you cover. But I'm yeah, I'm really fascinated, first of all, about like the personality of Brian Roberts and like how he kind of came to, as we said, build up this huge empire. So can you kind of talk people through who maybe don't know much about him or actually how this all came about? So basically the Roberts family, they started off, his father Ralph, they were just this tiny little cable company in Tupelo, Mississippi. And basically, when Brian started taking over and kind of feeling his oats and whatnot, he started building up the company and buying more cable distribution companies. And the empire started to grow. And the thing about Brian Roberts that's really interesting is that he's always been a buyer. And what makes this turn to me kind of significant is that this signals to me that he is willing to, perhaps think about selling. So, and I can get into that in a minute, but basically the whole empire was built, the crux of it was the acquisition of NBC Universal. And it was a brilliant financial move, I'll have to tell you that, because what happened was it was right after the financial crisis, General Electric of all companies used to own NBC Universal, right? So they blow up in the financial crisis. They have this, like, weird asset that has no right to be into this company and they're like 'yikes, what are we going to do with this.' It was like a fire sale. So, Brian Roberts comes in he's like, okay, we're going to take this off your hands, but we're going to do it in two parts and we're going to buy a majority of this like it was like 50-51% and if we like it we're going to buy the rest of it down the road and he bought it at a very low multiple advertising revenue at the time because of the crisis was down. Okay, so now, I mean, so he buys this asset, it's all about, you know, he starts banging the drum about content and distribution. So now he has Universal Theme Parks, he has NBC, the broadcast network here in the United States, and then he has this cable business. So that's where we are in the landscape. And Jen, can I just ask, just in terms of the TV that we would know, right? So, this is after Friends This is after, like, wasn't there this, like, heyday of NBC where they had, like, every top show? Must-see TV. It was like Thursday. Must See TV was like Thursday, wasn't it? Yeah, that was not under Comcast. I don't even know if that was under General Electric, but anyway, it was not Comcast. So that heyday is like over when this all starts to happen. Yeah, although when he, it starts to kind of like, TV starts to kind of go, you know, a little bit down because remember Netflix didn't launch its streaming service until 2007, I believe. So, and that took a while for it to build up. So, you know, when he, when he made this purchase, it seemed like a good idea at the time. But it always seems like a good idea to these guys. This is what I'm so interested about, because you've covered, it feels like a million of these things now, right? Yeah. Like AT&T and all these others And what happens is there's just this never-ending stream of deals where all of the assets rotate around on this merry-go-round. Sometimes they're getting joined up with distribution. Sometimes they're getting split apart with distribution. And the results just seem super mixed, no matter what's happening. Am I being super unfair here But after a decade and a half, do we have a verdict on, I guess, what Roberts was doing specifically and what the industry in general keeps doing? Big media deals tend to never work out. I mean, it's just, it's that simple. I mean, if you look at how, I mean, like AOL and Time Warner was supposed to be the same premise. We're gonna marry content and distribution, right? That was a disaster. I mean, I just can't even tell you how bad that was. Then you have, like Fox and Disney and then you have like even actually I forgot to mention this was a really interesting Comcast actually went after Disney itself in 2004 because that was the first content company that he really wanted he didn't get it Brian Roberts you know it was a colossal mistake his share price collapsed because shareholders didn't like it which also tells you something right it was a cable company and he was trying to get into media and you know and shareholders like I don't know about this. And so he kind of waits, and he tries to recreate Disney by buying NBC Universal. But anyway, going back to my point is that these massive deals usually never work. The difference, I think, with him is that he bought it at a low point. So instead of bidding up the price, like what happened with Disney and Fox or what happened with, just recently with Paramount and WarnerMedia, which is just like you're sitting here scratching your head, like, how are these things going to pay off? Because they never do. So, he bought it at a decent price. So his mistake, if you call it a mistake, is sort of like it's sugared over by the fact that he just didn't pay a ton of money for that asset. And so, Jen, can you talk us through then? Because you mentioned the interesting thing about all of this is that he's not really finished doing deals, right? As in he is going to break up the company, but there are more deals to do. And there's obviously ITV, which has just been done in the UK. What do you think in terms of deals, what are we likely to see? Well, so that's interesting So let me kind of take you through what he's done so far. So first, he split off the cable networks, some of them, which was like CNBC, the Golf Channel. And he started this new company called Versant Media. And that spun off earlier this year. Everybody that I was talking to was, like, keeping their eye on Comcast. They're like, what are they going to do next? Because they were the one media company that hadn't really done much since everybody was getting involved in all these bidding wars over Warner Media. So he splits it and he he takes NBC Universal and then as one company and then the cable and broadband distribution is going to be a second company. In my eyes, anytime you like do a spinoff or split it signals that you are willing you're a willing seller. Because that's exactly what happened with Warner Brothers, right? Yeah. And yes, look, I believe him when he says that he can go off and be opportunistic and buy things, perhaps. Maybe. I mean, but usually that's not what happens. Usually, what happens is the reverse. Now, his family still controls over, I think it's like 33% of the vote. So it makes it very difficult for somebody to come in. But I think the reason why he split this is there was a lot of pressure on him. The company's stock was down. I think 50, 60%. So he was feeling that pressure, is my guess, and he wanted to get a step ahead of like, you know, Nelson Peltz was in Comcast not that long ago, arguing for a split. So I think he wanted to get ahead of that. So now the question is, what do you do? Does he buy things? Maybe he could go buy, you know, the big thing now. Everybody thinks Netflix because they lost out on Warner. I mean, they lost out on Param... Warner. I can't even keep track of that stuff. That they may try and go after NBC, possibly? Then we have on the other side of the house, Charter Communications is a huge cable company. They may try and merge, or someone may try and buy it. I mean, it's just, it's really kind of, it's up in the air. I mean, do you think there's any world in which, because the thing that's happening in the background here, right, is that we have another... Potentially crazed media vocal who's arising these days, right? In David Ellison, who, as you said, Paramount took over Warner Bros Discovery. Ellison, who is the son of Larry Ellison, Oracle founder, like very tied into kind of like Trump world is the sort of perception there. And obviously, they have just a little bit on their plate, digesting the hundred-billion-dollar-plus acquisition of Warner Brothers. Like, do you think that takes them out of the running for anything that happens with Comcast? You mean, do you think that Ellison could look at Comcast? Yeah, maybe. Yeah, it takes them out of the running. No, no, I don't think they could do it. No, no, I don't think they could do it. Paramount right now is, first of all, has to get this through regulators, which I think will happen. But that's not the real issue with Paramount. The real issue with Paramount, which is usually what happens in these transactions, is the massive amount of debt that they put on these things. You know, these aren't growing businesses. So this is the thing, it doesn't end well. Like I don't, it's hard to, that's why Warner had to sell and split up because there was so much debt on the books. And that was a big reason why. So, you know, do they go off and buy NBC? I mean, there would be a ton of regulatory issues behind it. I just don't even financially know how they would be able to do it. So Jen, if you were an advisor to these companies, what do you think does make sense? Because as you said, it doesn't seem like you can make money doing these types of deals. Yeah. But is there something out there, some sort of unicorn trade that actually does make sense? Yeah, here's a unicorn trade. If I'm Brian Roberts and I'm thinking Netflix just wanted to overpay for Warner, I would sell him NBC, Ted Saranis, and Greg Peters so quick, it would make your head spin. You just shove that off onto somebody else, right? And I haven't, to be honest with you, haven't looked deeply at the cable distribution because it's just a sleepy part of the media business. But there is an argument, part of the reason why the multiple has fallen so much for cable, and we can talk about this a little bit, like what's interesting is that when I did the exercise, if you were to put NBC Universal on, you know, traded separately, it would trade about nine times just where Disney is trading right now. The cable company, which was always the better business, is trading it around four times if you put it on charter. And part of that is because the growth was broadband, and that started to not grow, and people were starting to get very concerned about that. There is an argument to be made that with all this AI stuff coming online that people are going to need a fat pipe. That's the only way I can describe it. So there is an upside to just kind of... steady Eddie Comcast. But yeah, if I were him, I would be I would say I'm gonna do what Rupert Murdoch did I'm gonna split my empire and just sell it to the highest bidder because people are willing to pay Right. So not necessarily so sanguine about the help of anybody doing a smart deal here. I mean, I guess just to wrap this whole thing up, right? No, they're not. Yeah, right. So just to wrap this up here, I guess like the thing I wonder is, you know, I think back 10 years, I remember Comcast, I think as I mentioned back at the beginning, was like this big, bad scary company that loomed over a lot of conversations about regulation and media rights and all this kind of stuff. Given how much these companies love doing big bad but ultimately perhaps misguided deals. Do you think any of that just ended up like it just showed that it doesn't matter like communications media just like changes so much that you can't have a stranglehold on the US market in the way that these guys always seem to think they're going to be able to do? I mean, that's an interesting question because of the rise of Netflix, really. I was reading somewhere, and forgive me for not knowing the publication, maybe it was The Wall Street Journal. They interviewed John Malone and John Malone was like, streaming should have been the cable industry. Like, they should have thought of that and basically, Netflix took the bone out of our mouths, And that's the problem. It's like media, and it's a problem for all industries, really. It's very difficult to reinvent yourself. They would have had to say, 'Okay, we're going to do streaming, but we're going to give up that means cable pay,' very lucrative packages, and the way you've been doing business for, you know... 40 years, you have to change course. And that is really hard to do with those fat margins and, you know, the traditions in play. And so I think that's basically it. It's like companies have a hard time. When you're fat and happy, it's hard to change course. You see it, not just in Why did you write it? I think it's everywhere. It's everywhere. Look at Meta. It's everywhere. Look at Meta. Look at Meta Platforms. The majority of their revenue is coming from advertising. And they can't seem to figure out how to flip into something else. So, it does happen everywhere. I think even like banks, all of the like littler, you know, newer, more agile banks, it's like they are offering people kind of what they want. And it's very hard. I think you're right to like disrupt yourself and be like, oh, this is this cool thing, but I'm making loads of money over here. But actually, I think I could make more here. I think that's why it's sort of impossible for them to do it. But yet I feel like this is not the end. I think there's got to be many more deals that you can sink your teeth into and we can have you back on The Views Room. So, thanks so much. Well, I'd be happy to come back, so thanks for having me. Thanks for tuning in. This podcast was produced by Sheryl Pena in New York and Gregory Garner in Toronto. You can check out a new episode of The Views Room every Thursday. And don't forget to tune into our sister show, The Big View, every Tuesday, as well as all the other great podcasts from the Reuters team. To get in touch with feedback, questions and ideas, please email us at breakingviews-podcasts@tr.com. If you liked what you heard, please rate the show and leave us a review. Breaking Views subscribers get access to all our views on the biggest stories in business and finance as they break every day on breakingviews.com. Or you can always sample some of our insights at reuters.com."},"published_time":"2026-07-09T06:47:57Z","updated_time":"2026-07-09T06:47:59Z","thumbnail":{"url":"https://ajo.prod.reuters.tv/api/v2/img/6a4f421ae4b0039400d66359","caption":"US giant Comcast will split into separate media and cable companies. In this week’s Viewsroom, Breakingviews columnists play out the deals that could follow, and why any buyer could just inherit the same doom loop.","type":"image","resizer_url":"https://ajo.prod.reuters.tv/api/v2/img/6a4f421ae4b0039400d66359"},"source":{"hls":"https://ajo.prod.reuters.tv/v3/playlist/782355/master.m3u8"},"channels":[{"id":"Breakingviews","name":"Breakingviews","regions":["UK","US"]}],"advert_info":{"advert_params":[{"key":"adfriendly","value":true}],"advert_zone":"/4735792/reuters.com"},"meta_data":[{"key":"link","value":"tag:reuters.com,2026:newsml_RW594507072026RP1:4"},{"key":"byline","value":"VARIOUS"},{"key":"hidden","value":"false"},{"key":"region","value":"Remote"},{"key":"dateline","value":"Reuters, Reuters, JUL 09"},{"key":"lmp-feed","value":"lp"},{"key":"copyright","value":"(c) 2026 Thomson Reuters, unless otherwise identified. Full statement available at https://www.thomsonreuters.com/en/policies/copyright.html"},{"key":"package-mood","value":"Neutral"},{"key":"package-notes","value":"Breakingviews, BV, Viewsroom, Aimee Donnellan, Jonathan Guilford, Jennifer Saba"},{"key":"package-format","value":"Other"},{"key":"publisher-name","value":"reuters.com"},{"key":"upstream-title","value":"Comcast models TV crack-up"},{"key":"external-asset-id","value":"285_RW594507072026RP1"},{"key":"package-no-social","value":"Yes"},{"key":"package-restrictions","value":"FOR REUTERS PLATFORMS ONLY. For Reuters customers only."},{"key":"upstream-description","value":"US giant Comcast will split into separate media and cable companies. In this week’s Viewsroom, Breakingviews columnists play out the deals that could follow, and why any buyer could just inherit the same doom loop."},{"key":"upstream-channel-code","value":"vty454"}],"usn":"RW594507072026RP1"},{"id":"RW387730062026RP1","type":"video","subtype":"application/x-mpegURL","external_id":"RW387730062026RP1","title":"Booze-makers’ low spirits","description":"Whiskey distiller Brown-Forman’s $30 bln tie-up talks point to broader industry woes as tastes shift. In this Viewsroom debate, Breakingviews columnists discuss the leaner future ahead for alcohol purveyors.","duration":1177.03,"transcript_data":{"transcript":"The views expressed on this podcast are those of the participants, not of Reuters News. You know that feeling when you wake up with a hangover and the world looks like a very difficult, unfriendly place? I think that is the state of the drinks industry at the moment. So they had quite a party during the pandemic, which was when everyone was sitting around quite happily, Buying up very expensive tequilas and whiskeys, maybe going for a slightly more expensive beer. But inflation put a massive squeeze on consumers. People are becoming a lot more health concsious. And there is obviously a massive rise of GLP-1 drugs, which seem to be impacting the thirst or appetite for alcohol. So amid all this, the likes of Diageo, which makes Baileys and Guinness and the others are trying different things. So cost cutting is something they talk about a lot. And they're also talking about, you know, pre-mixed drinks, trying to boost margins that way. Some are even talking up deals. But it just looks like for now, it's hard to see where growth comes from. And that is what we are going to chat about on The Viewsroom today. And I'm Jonathan Guilford, and this is The Viewsroom, your weekly dive into the biggest stories in politics, economics, and finance. And Aimee, I am glad I was not the only one who suddenly discovered that off-licenses do home delivery service and was ordering bottles of pork during the pandemic. I remember lockdown well. I was big into margaritas. That's when I got very interested in making. That's the thing, I feel like everybody went very far off the left tail of what they usually drink. I did, and I'd be like, 50 euro tequila, throw it in the basket. That's the thing and, What you might expect is, say, everything normalizes from there and you see people go back to pre-pandemic drinking habits. Sure, maybe that's bad for, you know, the makers of Ponytaught selling it to a specific zip code in Manhattan. But you would have thought, oh, you know, everything will go back to how it was kind of rum-raiding before. People have been drinking for a long time. Well, perhaps no longer. I know you and I have looked at data that shows, I think, the latest Gallup polling had the number of Americans who are drinking regularly falling, like, Perilously close to down towards that 50% mark. There really does seem to have been a big shift in the culture, right? There is, and I sort of wonder, I mean, we can, we'll bring in our guest in a second, but I sort of wonder, there's a few things. People are getting older and I think people drink less as they get older. But young people are not drinking as much either, and they are becoming a lot more health conscious. I think that's it. Like the new drinkers are not coming on board as fast as they were maybe in our generation. So I think it's hard to sell. Greater volumes. And what they've all been talking about for a long time is drink less, but better, So they can't be telling you need to drink loads more beer or loads more tequila. But they're saying, oh, you know, this tequila is is seventy dollars or seventy euro. You should buy that instead of the very cheap tequila you had been buying and you'll have a better experience. And maybe it's better for you. I'm not really sure. But yes, let's let's bring in our guest, Jeffrey Goldfarb, who is one of the editors in the US team, a global editor, I should say. Jeff, you're very welcome to the Viewsroom. Thanks. I should note also, I am a professional drinker. Okay, good. I think I bring certain expertise. Mix three of us. Wait, Jeff, what were you drinking during lockdown? What was your temple of choice. During lockdown, I was in Australia, so I got to discover a lot of new craft beers. Certainly, it was a little bit harder to get my favorite American bourbon. I discovered Japanese whiskey, too, while I was there. That was great. So I splurged on some of that. So I think, Jeff, one thing that I think there is a debate at the moment and Edward Chancellor, who writes lots of columns for Breakingviews, He wrote a really interesting piece last year talking about basically his view was that this was cyclical, what was going on in the drinks industry, And not structural, that it wasn't a situation that it's just in structural decline. What's your view on that? What do you kind of think from looking at all the numbers and data you've been looking at? Do you think that this is just a situation where maybe a lot of like economic forces have converged all at once and it's just bad for this particular sector? So I think some of it is cyclical. You know, I've seen mixed data on, you know, we were talking about, you and Jonathan were talking earlier about what's happening with younger people. I've seen mixed info on Now you gotta remember also that younger people are sort of like, A fraction of the dollars spent on booze Obviously they're tomorrow's customers, you know, but right now it's Gen X and Baby Boomers that are like the real spenders on alcohol. But I think there's just a, I don't know that they're necessarily drinking less, but they're drinking differently, right? They're drinking pre-mixed, these, you know, cocktails in a can. And they're, I think, a little bit more focused on, You know, shot sizes, the mini bottles, are very popular in the U.S. I don't know if they are elsewhere so, they by these like little airplane bottles worth of, you buy a six-pack of those. And so those are I think are more popular as we talked about the ready-to-drink stuff, So, that's a cyclical kind of change. They're not there may be drinking less cheap beer or you know, whatever it may be but The structural part of it, I do think goes more to the health consciousness and the amount. So I think people will keep drinking, but I get the sense that people are drinking less. The number of average drinks per week, I think is the number that I've seen that's coming down. And part of that probably goes to, GLP-1s and a whole bunch of other kind of trends that are more and more studies coming out about how unhealthy alcohol is. I mean, in moderation, we all enjoy it, but it affects sleep and mood and weight and all these things that I think this younger generation is maybe picking up on a little bit more. And certainly, even middle-aged people are rethinking some habits because of that. Well, it seems like it's not a simple case of just, you know, you switch over to the new thing and follow where the trends are going, right? Because I know, Jeff, you and I were chatting about how you were looking into the U.S. government actually tracks a whole ton of data about, Like, industry inventory levels and production and so on really, really carefully. And there's this issue where kind of like we saw in a bunch of industries during the pandemic, right, we had these huge like whiplash effects, Where you would get a ton of extra supply that you suddenly needed to bring online very, very quickly to satisfy demand. And then if you were a little bit late on the jump on that, you just ended up with like a ton of stranded inventory. And I'm presuming like it's a similar situation that's going to happen to a bunch of folks, especially on like the specialist, like spirits and whatnot, as opposed to kind of just more commodity stuff. Yeah. I mean, there is the biggest glut right now that you're seeing is in whiskey. And that's a problem inherent with the spirit because it's aged, right? So, you know, you have anywhere from like five years to 30 years on something that's aged. Well, you have, that means you have to project demand. If you're, if you're pouring whiskey into a barrel now, You have to be thinking about who's going to drink it in the year 2046, right? And that's almost impossible. I guess, if you're in this business, you have some sense of it, but you're really like guessing and they guessed poorly, right? I mean, they built up these massive whiskey volumes, and now, the amount of inventory to production, Is that an all-time high. I don't know if it's an all-time high, but it's a very high multiple right now in the United States. And so those kinds of businesses in particular are very hard to gauge. And who knows how they're thinking about it now in terms of, given the trends that we're talking about today, How do you decide how many barrels of 20-year Buffalo Trace are you going to prepare for the market. Do you know what I also think is really interesting as well is I think that when you look back on, Maybe some of the really good decisions or smart decisions that were made in the past in the drink sector. So think about Diageo, Ivan Menez, who unfortunately passed away, who was the CEO of the company, he made a big bet on tequila. And at the time, nobody was drinking tequila, and everyone thought he was overpaying for the assets that he was buying. And actually it turned out tequila overtook vodka as the sort of spirit of choice in the U.S. But I sort of look at it now and I think when I see what the drink companies are doing, I don't see them making big bets. In fact, I think what they're doing are sort of odd bets like Carlsberg Britfic, for example. That was this idea that you would buy a soft drink maker, not even no-alcohol beer, but actually just soft drinks that people could drink. And I think the thinking is that the valuations on like Coca-Cola and PepsiCo are so much higher than the drinks companies and they might benefit from that. But I sort of wondered what you think, Jeff, why do you think investors are not getting excited about any of the things, That they're trying to do that would maybe slightly dilute the pressure they have on alcohol? I think that a lot of things were at this point where investors are trying to figure out what comes next, right? I mean, because of the health trends. I don't think it's clear yet, back to the cyclical versus structural. I mean, you have to, as an investor, you have to figure out what's going on here. And I think right now a lot of investors are not sure whether it's cyclical or structural or which parts of it are cyclical, which parts of it are structural. You can look at a diversified distiller like Diageo, where you would have thought they should be able to play all the trends because they have such a broad liquor cabinet. Whereas a Brown Foreman, in a way, Which makes Jack Daniels. They make Jack Daniels the bestseller. They make Jack Daniels, the best-selling whiskey in the world. But they're hugely concentrated in that category and in that brand. But in a way, that has helped them a little bit, because vodka has gone completely off the rails. Nobody buys it anymore. And they don't have a vodka And that's been good So those kinds of things, it's hard to play it. And right now, there are so many trends that are, Affecting you also have the trade trends we haven't gotten to. You know, U.S. brands are not exactly in favor because of all these tariffs. There's a lot of sort of protectionism going on in liquor, just as there is in everything else. And that's, I think, affecting the investment thesis for some of these. And some of the companies have played it well in terms of the trends. You mentioned Diageo going into Tequila, which was a smart move. Sazerac, which we'll talk about a little bit, is part of the M&A. Game that's going on, they were very smart and bought this company called Buzzballs, which, for better or for worse, Are these neon shaded grenades of grenade-shaped bottles that serve things that are very, they're part of the, What could go wrong? What could go wrong? Well, it's part of this like ready to drink category right like it's these salt single serve high alcohol content like thing and they caught the wave on that. And that's the only place where there's really any growth right now so those kinds of things, those kinds of maneuvers I think always happen. But it's really this question of like you know what what's gonna happen over the next 10 years you know and We're going to see a rebound to certain levels, or is this a steady decline for the industry? Well, folks are clearly getting ready to position themselves, right? Because you mentioned Sazerac, Jack Daniel's, Maker's, Brown-Forman, and the great M&A game that's going on right now. So why don't we just jump into this? Because this is the big situation that may set some sort of template for what's going to happen if the sector does consolidate. Because we have all this pressure coming in on it from, like you said, all these cyclical and structural trends. So, do you maybe want to lay it out for us what happened? Because Brown-Forman, obviously, makes Jack Daniel's. First there was everything about like, could they tie it with Pinot Ricard? Then everything got much more complicated from there and now we're in a kind of stalemate situation. So do you maybe want to kind of walk the listeners through just a quick capsule of what happened there? Yeah, so Brown Foreman, which makes Jack Daniels, is family owned, fifth, sixth generation family members running the company, working in the company. And they're a company that has resisted deals before. They feel very, as many family businesses do, they feel very protective of the brand. They like the fact that they have this outsized control. They like the dividends that flow out of the business that keeps them living. They have, I think, something to the effect of 25% economic control of Brown-Forman, but 75% of the, or maybe a little bit less than that, two thirds maybe, of the vote at Brown-Forman. And so they talked, they willingly engaged with Pernod Ricard, another family-influenced publicly traded brand. And they thought there was a lot of complementarity there, complementary aspects of the business, because Pernod Ricard is quite strong internationally. And I think Brown Forman would like to start selling Jack Daniels into more parts of the world. And so they thought there was going to be a way to square that circle. The problem is you have two family businesses, and nobody wants to seed. You know, too much control. And so you're talking about putting together a European family and an American family and a cross border publicly traded, you know, businesses. And I, you know, they just couldn't get there is, you know, what it seems like. And I would have been really nervous as an investor if they had, even if they had said they had, because that would have seemed like a mess. And so as this was going on, Sazerac, which is another family-controlled, private company, Came in, and they are sort of a unicorn in alcohol right now in the sense that they are the only one of the majors that's actually been growing over the last three years. And that's a large part to the ready-to-drink stuff. But they came in and said, hey, we'll buy you Brown Forman. And by the way, we'll pay you cash. But if anybody, any family members that want to stick around, we'll let you roll your equity. And Brown-Forman sort of immediately rejected that, I think, again, because of the control question there. So that's kind of where, and Diageo, you know, Amy, you know a little bit better with Diageo, but they're kind of in like a cleanup mode there. And debt is a problem. We often talk about the two drunks propping each other up at the bar. We make that analogy about all sorts of other sectors, but this is actually more apt. But I don't think that they're in a position, it doesn't look like, to really do a deal and certainly pay cash to anybody to do it. So, and nor I don't think would they want to, because it seems Dave Lewis, who is now the CEO of Tesco fame, who did a huge restructuring there. It doesn't look like he's I wouldn't say that would be his focus. No, I don't think cost Yeah, doesn't seem like they get involved. It doesn't seem like they get involved in this M&A game if it flares up again, except maybe they sell a brand or two, but it doesn't feel like they're in position to. So you're looking basically at Pernaut and Brown Forman and Sazerac, and the question becomes for Brown Forman and Pernaut in particular is the dividend. These are families that live off of the dividends. Brown Foreman in particular is very proud of the fact that it is a, you know, it consistently raises its dividend over the years. And right now they've been pulling a lot of levers in order to keep doing that. And, you know, they've cut their advertising, they've cut their capital expenditure, and... You know, they did fair. Fair enough, they did a lot of upgrades to their facilities a few years ago during the pandemic, so maybe CapEx should be coming back down a little bit. But it looks like they are juggling a bunch of things at a time when sales are hurting and inventories are high to try and make sure that the dividend keeps getting paid. And if that doesn't work and Pernod Ricard may be in the same position, That's when you're going to start to see pressure on the families. You may start to see some infighting in the families of, hey, why are we sticking around with this? I think Diageo Pernod and Brown Foreman, their stocks are all down the vicinity of 60% or so over the last five years. Again, the families may not care as much about the stock price as they do the fact that the dividends keep flowing. But then you have publicly traded shareholders who do care about the stock price and may not have total control over the company, but will start making their feelings known at some point. So I think there's a lot of tension right now inside these companies. And depending upon which way things break, that's where you could start to see some more aggressive or willing re-engagement in deal talks. Yeah, and it seems like that's going to be a really key bellwether for the industry going forward, like you're saying. So I think that's as good a place as any to wrap it up. Jeff, thank you so much for joining us on The Viewsroom. Thanks for tuning in. This podcast was produced by Sheryl Pena in New York and Gregory Garner in Toronto. You can check out a new episode of The Viewsroom every Thursday. And don't forget to tune into our sister show The Big View every Tuesday, as well as all the other great podcasts from the Reuters team. To get in touch with feedback, questions and ideas, please email us at breakingviews-podcasts at tr.com. That's breakingviews-podcasts at tr.com. If you liked what you heard, please rate the show and leave us a review. Breaking Views subscribers get access to all our views on the biggest stories in business and finance as they break every day on breakingviews.com. Or you can always sample some of our insights at reuters.com."},"published_time":"2026-07-02T07:03:04Z","updated_time":"2026-07-02T07:03:05Z","thumbnail":{"url":"https://ajo.prod.reuters.tv/api/v2/img/6a460a7ce4b0299c78f12982","caption":"Whiskey distiller Brown-Forman’s $30 bln tie-up talks point to broader industry woes as tastes shift. In this Viewsroom debate, Breakingviews columnists discuss the leaner future ahead for alcohol purveyors.","type":"image","resizer_url":"https://ajo.prod.reuters.tv/api/v2/img/6a460a7ce4b0299c78f12982"},"source":{"hls":"https://ajo.prod.reuters.tv/v3/playlist/781539/master.m3u8"},"channels":[{"id":"Breakingviews","name":"Breakingviews","regions":["UK","US"]},{"id":"HPUS","name":"RCOM Homepage US","regions":["US"]}],"advert_info":{"advert_params":[{"key":"adfriendly","value":true}],"advert_zone":"/4735792/reuters.com"},"meta_data":[{"key":"link","value":"tag:reuters.com,2026:newsml_RW387730062026RP1:4"},{"key":"byline","value":"VARIOUS"},{"key":"hidden","value":"false"},{"key":"region","value":"Remote"},{"key":"dateline","value":"Reuters, Reuters, JUL 02"},{"key":"lmp-feed","value":"lp"},{"key":"copyright","value":"(c) 2026 Thomson Reuters, unless otherwise identified. Full statement available at https://www.thomsonreuters.com/en/policies/copyright.html"},{"key":"package-mood","value":"Neutral"},{"key":"package-notes","value":"Breakingviews, BV, Viewsroom, Aimee Donnellan, Jonathan Guilford, Jeffrey Goldfarb"},{"key":"package-format","value":"Other"},{"key":"publisher-name","value":"reuters.com"},{"key":"upstream-title","value":"Booze-makers’ low spirits"},{"key":"external-asset-id","value":"285_RW387730062026RP1"},{"key":"package-no-social","value":"Yes"},{"key":"package-restrictions","value":"FOR REUTERS PLATFORMS ONLY. For Reuters customers only."},{"key":"upstream-description","value":"Whiskey distiller Brown-Forman’s $30 bln tie-up talks point to broader industry woes as tastes shift. In this Viewsroom debate, Breakingviews columnists discuss the leaner future ahead for alcohol purveyors."},{"key":"upstream-channel-code","value":"vty454"}],"usn":"RW387730062026RP1"},{"id":"RW169123062026RP1","type":"video","subtype":"application/x-mpegURL","external_id":"RW169123062026RP1","title":"AI price hikes","description":"Businesses may spend $680 bln on software and models next year. In this Viewsroom debate, Breakingviews columnists discuss whether AI giants will benefit from new pricing or whether costs will push clients to seek cheaper options.","duration":1043.13,"transcript_data":{"transcript":"The views expressed on this podcast are those of the participants, not of Reuters News. Welcome back. Today, we're talking about a word that strikes fear into the hearts of corporate boardrooms, token maxing. It's a byproduct of companies like Amazon and Meta aggressively pushing their employees to use AI and use it constantly. On the surface, that should be a productivity boom. But AI providers like OpenAI and Microsoft's GitHub have changed their pricing models, and that's making finance departments very nervous. It comes down to tokens. Every time you interact with an AI model, every prompt, every response, every background process running quietly on your behalf consumes tokens. And some tools, like coding agents, burn through them at an alarming rate. And the problem is that the bill is becoming unpredictable and could keep growing. For finance chiefs, this is a fresh and uncomfortable problem. A recent Gartner survey found that three-quarters of executives expect their technology budgets to increase this year and nearly half are bracing for double-digit rises. The question is, do the maths stack up and can companies afford to keep paying? And I'm Una Galani, and this is The Viewsroom, your weekly dive into the biggest stories in corporate finance, business, and economics. Now, all this token maxing would be really funny if there wasn't so much real money invested in the success of these big AI companies. I mean, we have had total corporate whiplash on this front. One day, companies are waving a stick at their employees. Use gen AI, prove you're an AI champion, and then wheeling out the corporate dashboards to make sure people are using it enough. And then the next day, the billing model for AI changes, and it's no longer all you can eat, it's pay as you go. And companies are suddenly racking up these absolutely enormous bills. I think Uber blew through its entire annual coding budget by April. So what do you do if you're a company? You've drunk the AI Kool-Aid, you've got everyone In the company, you're addicted to the staff and you've kind of learned to believe that you can't exist without it, But it's no longer affordable because the productivity gains are so fuzzy. So what do you do? Do you restrict access to the compute power or do you let everybody have their cake and eat it and somehow find a way to manage these costs? I mean, it is insane. You're right. I think that the calculation for how much productivity gains, I mean, I think it's really funny if you think about it. If you were, let's say, a CFO of a company, you were thinking to yourself, 'We'll just use a load of AI.' Will become extremely efficient and productive and our margins will just go through the roof. And then now they're like, oh, actually, this is going to cost us loads of money. But I suppose if you are one of the AI companies, you know, everyone was questioning how on earth they were actually going to make money, Like who was going to subscribe to any of the services that they were providing. And actually now it looks like maybe maybe that's different. But Robyn Mak, our colleague in Asia, who has been covering AI, doing amazing things and has really been writing that this topic, particularly in depth lately. So we will welcome Robyn. You're very welcome back to the Viewsroom. Thanks, Aimee. Happy to be here. So, yes, can you can you talk us through this, Robyn, for people who don't know, have never heard this expression before, token maxing? So how has this evolved How has this all kind of come about that these AI companies are now focused in this way on this pricing model? Yeah, so I think token maxing really became a thing earlier this year. And that was when the whole world was gripped by something called the agent craze. So you have these AI agents led by OpenClaw that just, you know, they were able to do much more than your regular chatbot. So in, you know, chatbots like ChatGPT, you ask a question and then the AI gives you an answer. And that effectively is not very token heavy. You don't consume that many tokens when you use a chatbot, even when you use it every day. But for agents, because they are constantly doing tasks and interacting with models in the background, They can rack up quite a lot of token costs on a daily basis, something like 10 to even 100 times more than a chatbot. So when agents really took off, Token usage really took off, So you could see that a lot of Chinese AI labs, for example, They reported that the token consumption and token usage just kind of just went up, kept going up, OpenAI and companies like Anthropic as well. But the problem was that the traditional ways that OpenAI They would just charge monthly subscriptions. And it's usually just, you can use however many tokens you wanted. And that never really mattered because with chatbots, you didn't really use that many tokens. But with the agents, all of a sudden you're using 10, 20, 30 times more tokens than you did before. So a lot of these companies now have switched to, you can pay a subscription, but then the tokens are capped. And then you can also, and once you hit a certain amount of tokens, then you have to start paying. You know, as you go, just on usage. And that makes AI bills very unpredictable because companies, they like predictable. Set fixed monthly costs and fees from subscriptions. So all of a sudden you have unpredictable bills. And then on the other hand, you also have companies that are incentivizing employees to just inflate their token usage. So a lot of companies had been, they're linking. Token consumption and token usage to There have been many reports on companies from Meta to Amazon that rank their employees internally on internal leader boards by token usage. So when you have situations, Like employees will just think of all sorts of ridiculous things to use AI and tokens on just to climb up on the leaderboards. Well, in fairness, it's not just Amazon and Meta, is it? Anybody in the corporate workplace today working for a large listed firm will be familiar with the carrot and stick approach that companies have taken to this. But, you've talked about this shift to the billing model and it being a completely different piece. So one day you're the CFO and you're just got this regular monthly cost and you're thinking, okay, that's fine. And now you're like, oh, is it like a hundred times bigger one month than suddenly a thousand times bigger the next month? I mean, what do you do if you're a finance chief? How do you think about this new Yeah, I mean, so this is not new. I think when you have these new technologies, you have unexpected or unpredictable costs. I think the same thing happened with cloud computing just not too long ago, less than a decade ago, Where at first when cloud computing, when companies started using it, there was this huge rise in their tech bills and budgets, Because no one really knew how much cloud computing they really required. And you're paying for a lot of storage space that maybe you did or didn't need. And then eventually, I think, with a lot of financial discipline and monitoring and tracking and budget allocating, A lot of companies managed to get wasteful cloud spending, sort of back down and sort of controlled that a bit. And I think the same thing will happen with AI budgets, right? So right now, everyone is kind of in the experimental phase. Everyone is like very keen to see what OpenAI and Anthropic and the most expensive models can offer. But now, we're starting to see, okay, some companies are saying, okay, maybe we need to switch to cheaper models like, China's, Alibaba, or DeepSeek models for less sophisticated tasks. And we have companies that are setting hard limits to tokens, for example. And I think it's just very simple but mundane things like tracking what people are doing with tokens, And how they're spending it and how you're allocating sort of this pot of money. So what do you think the option is? Is it to restrict usage? So you say, okay, not everyone can have the most compute-intensive tools. Or do you say, we don't need the latest models, and therefore somehow that will be cheaper? I mean, I think it really depends what a lot of these companies are using it for, right? If you are an AI company and your business is coding and selling AI services, Then you do need access to the best AI models, if it's not for yourself, then for your engineers. But if you are just a non-tech company and you just want, To automate some of your workflows and processes, you don't have to use frontier models. You can use other models. There are tons of options out there In the U.S., it's very tempting to think it's only a choice between OpenAI and Anthropic. But actually, in China, you have tons of very competitive and high performing Chinese open source models as well that a lot of U.S. companies are using too. I was speaking to a CFO the other day who was saying that you can't really restrict access to the best tools because then the talent won't want to come and work at your company. So that's like a very difficult trade off for some firms. So, I mean, I think, you know, you have to offer your employees, you know, access to the most productive tools. And there's even, I think it was Nvidia's Jensen Huang was saying, or he suggested that companies could even offer tokens as part of their compensation packages. That's ridiculous. So, Robyn, I was sort of curious about when you think about what's happened, let's say to the stock market in the U.S. and in Europe, A lot of the enthusiasm for certain companies was about the productivity gains that they were going to get from through AI. If it proves a little bit more expensive than they thought it was going to be, can you sort of see companies going, Well actually we don't want to spend all this money on tokens. Our investors are very conscious about our margins and this is really what we need to focus on. So we could pull back a little bit from this and that maybe you wouldn't see that as quickly as everybody else is thinking, That you might as our investors are betting that it would happen. I think it's a really hard question to answer because I think everybody, every company sees like defines AI gains and benefits and productivity gains like very differently, right? So some companies will sort of measure that directly with For example, revenue growth. Some will sort of measure cost cuts. Some will measure revenue per employee, for example. So I think different companies have very different benchmarks. And, you know, it is still really early days, to be fair, right? I mean, this technology agents, for example, and sort of these top coding agents from Anthropic, like they've only been around for less than a year. So I think it's still very much in the experimental phase at this point. What do you do about, does it change the calculus for companies in terms of human capital? So for example, like when tokens were on a eat as much as you like model, Then it's kind of easier to think about getting rid of stuff because you just throw loads of AI and tokens and compute are the problem. But if the cost of those tokens have gone up, should that change the calculus on headcount and productivity? Yes, but I think, AI is not just about tokens, right? Especially the cost, like token cost is just one component, right? You also have integration costs, you've got cloud computing costs, you've got data costs. So I think you kind of have to look at it as a package, right? And when you sort of start comparing the costs of human labor versus AI, it gets very difficult. I mean, I've seen studies where, Just based on tokens alone, the comparable human cost, it varies between whether you're like a call center or a engineer. I think it's different. I think companies are just going to have to keep monitoring and looking and just making these decisions when they hire people, Or decide on where to allocate headcount or where to allocate AI budgets. And, Robyn, I'm sort of curious as well because, as we said at the beginning, there is, like, a positive right to the AI companies themselves. So, the companies who are providing the AI technology, because there was always this question of, How on earth could it be valued in the way that they were being valued, Given how much revenue they were actually bringing in or how much people actually thought that they would actually spend ultimately on AI? Again, does this change that as in how are these kind of AI companies responding? How are their valuations responding to this, like token maxing as in that being a concept? Yeah, I think, I mean, I think it's a really good question. I think companies like OpenAI and Anthropic, their revenue is definitely growing just because you have so many use cases, You have so many more enterprise customers willing to pay for tokens and AI subscriptions. But the other really interesting thing is sort of the cost of tokens and where that's headed in the future, because on one hand you have, An electricity crunch in the U.S., you have data center shortages, and you have a lot of demand for tokens. So that, in theory, should mean that the price of tokens should remain quite high. But on the other hand, you have sort of these opposing forces. So you have chip advances and model advances that are making the costs of tokens quite cheap. So, AI models are quite cheap now You have a lot of private venture capital money that are effectively subsidizing a lot of cost of tokens for AI startups. And you have competition, right? You cannot charge really high prices for tokens when Chinese AI labs are charging a third of your price. So you have all these different push and pull factors, and it's really not clear where the price and costs of tokens will end up down the line. Well, it's going to be really interesting to see how the revenue of these AI companies changes as the new pricing models are really absorbed, And whether companies, what are they including in their revenue? Are they going to include all the accidental overspends that companies did as a one-off and then say, hey, this is part of our revenue run rate? Or are they going to say, actually, we're not including this because this is clearly a one-off? So it's going to be really interesting. You're going to sort of, the illusion is going to, so the veil is going to be lifted. Yeah, but I think going back to the cloud computing sort of analogy is that companies did sort of manage to control their spending on cloud computing. But at the same time, the cloud computing market grew. You have cloud computing companies like Alphabet. They grew a lot. And it was just because even if you control your costs, it doesn't have to come at the expense of adoption. You can still have entire industries and sectors using AI and adopting new technologies. So, yeah, I mean, it looks like from the outset, it looks AI companies have figured out a way to price, but they're all competing with each other. So it'd be difficult for them to make lots of money or in any way kind of live up to the valuations that they are reaching at the moment. And CFOs have a new headache to So, yeah, Robyn, I think Thank you so much. Thanks for tuning in. This podcast was produced by Sheryl Pena in New York and Gregory Garner in Toronto. You can check out a new episode of The Viewsroom every Thursday. And don't forget to tune into our sister show, The Big View, every Tuesday, as well as all the other great podcasts from the Reuters team. To get in touch with feedback, questions and ideas, please email us at breakingviews-podcasts at tr.com. That's breakingviews-podcasts. If you liked what you heard, please rate the show and leave us a review. 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