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Trump: not going to be doing diesel export ban
Reuters · 2026-10-02
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class="nav-dropdown-module__more-section-group__6-L2e nav-dropdown-module__has-children__Wpz3R"><h2 data-testid="Heading" class="text-module__text__0GDob text-module__dark-grey__UFC18 text-module__medium__2Rl30 text-module__heading_6__u1KdJ heading-module__base__p-zaD heading-module__heading_6__-zrtS"><a data-testid="Body" href="/legal/" class="text-module__text__0GDob text-module__graphite__fZRmg text-module__medium__2Rl30 text-module__body__9d61E body-module__base__o--Cl body-module__body_alt__0ewNU nav-dropdown-module__section-link__Mvj6r">Legal</a></h2><ul class="nav-dropdown-module__subsections__ElxDL"><li><a data-testid="Body" href="/legal/government/" class="text-module__text__0GDob text-module__medium-grey__yZtlg text-module__regular__qJJtA text-module__small__sph8i body-module__base__o--Cl body-module__small_body__gOmDf nav-dropdown-module__subsection-link__T9-bB">Government</a></li><li><a data-testid="Body" href="/legal/legalindustry/" class="text-module__text__0GDob text-module__medium-grey__yZtlg text-module__regular__qJJtA text-module__small__sph8i body-module__base__o--Cl body-module__small_body__gOmDf nav-dropdown-module__subsection-link__T9-bB">Legal Industry</a></li><li><a data-testid="Body" href="/legal/litigation/" class="text-module__text__0GDob text-module__medium-grey__yZtlg text-module__regular__qJJtA text-module__small__sph8i body-module__base__o--Cl body-module__small_body__gOmDf nav-dropdown-module__subsection-link__T9-bB">Litigation</a></li><li><a data-testid="Body" href="/legal/transactional/" class="text-module__text__0GDob text-module__medium-grey__yZtlg text-module__regular__qJJtA text-module__small__sph8i body-module__base__o--Cl body-module__small_body__gOmDf nav-dropdown-module__subsection-link__T9-bB">Transactional</a></li><li><a data-testid="Body" href="/legal/us-supreme-court/" class="text-module__text__0GDob text-module__medium-grey__yZtlg text-module__regular__qJJtA text-module__small__sph8i body-module__base__o--Cl body-module__small_body__gOmDf nav-dropdown-module__subsection-link__T9-bB">US Supreme Court</a></li></ul></section><section data-testid="MoreDropdown" class="nav-dropdown-module__more-section-group__6-L2e nav-dropdown-module__has-children__Wpz3R"><h2 data-testid="Heading" class="text-module__text__0GDob text-module__dark-grey__UFC18 text-module__medium__2Rl30 text-module__heading_6__u1KdJ heading-module__base__p-zaD heading-module__heading_6__-zrtS"><a data-testid="Body" href="/commentary/" class="text-module__text__0GDob text-module__graphite__fZRmg text-module__medium__2Rl30 text-module__body__9d61E body-module__base__o--Cl body-module__body_alt__0ewNU nav-dropdown-module__section-link__Mvj6r">Commentary</a></h2><ul class="nav-dropdown-module__subsections__ElxDL"><li><a data-testid="Body" href="/commentary/breakingviews/" class="text-module__text__0GDob text-module__medium-grey__yZtlg text-module__regular__qJJtA text-module__small__sph8i body-module__base__o--Cl body-module__small_body__gOmDf nav-dropdown-module__subsection-link__T9-bB">Breakingviews</a></li><li><a data-testid="Body" href="/commentary/reuters-open-interest/" class="text-module__text__0GDob text-module__medium-grey__yZtlg text-module__regular__qJJtA text-module__small__sph8i body-module__base__o--Cl body-module__small_body__gOmDf nav-dropdown-module__subsection-link__T9-bB">ROI: Reuters Open Interest</a></li></ul></section><section data-testid="MoreDropdown" class="nav-dropdown-module__more-section-group__6-L2e nav-dropdown-module__has-children__Wpz3R"><h2 data-testid="Heading" class="text-module__text__0GDob text-module__dark-grey__UFC18 text-module__medium__2Rl30 text-module__heading_6__u1KdJ heading-module__base__p-zaD heading-module__heading_6__-zrtS"><a data-testid="Body" href="/technology/" class="text-module__text__0GDob text-module__graphite__fZRmg text-module__medium__2Rl30 text-module__body__9d61E body-module__base__o--Cl body-module__body_alt__0ewNU nav-dropdown-module__section-link__Mvj6r">Technology</a></h2><ul class="nav-dropdown-module__subsections__ElxDL"><li><a data-testid="Body" href="/technology/artificial-intelligence/" class="text-module__text__0GDob text-module__medium-grey__yZtlg text-module__regular__qJJtA text-module__small__sph8i body-module__base__o--Cl body-module__small_body__gOmDf nav-dropdown-module__subsection-link__T9-bB">Artificial Intelligence</a></li><li><a data-testid="Body" href="/technology/cybersecurity/" class="text-module__text__0GDob text-module__medium-grey__yZtlg text-module__regular__qJJtA text-module__small__sph8i body-module__base__o--Cl body-module__small_body__gOmDf nav-dropdown-module__subsection-link__T9-bB">Cybersecurity</a></li><li><a data-testid="Body" href="/technology/space/" class="text-module__text__0GDob text-module__medium-grey__yZtlg text-module__regular__qJJtA text-module__small__sph8i body-module__base__o--Cl body-module__small_body__gOmDf nav-dropdown-module__subsection-link__T9-bB">Space</a></li><li><a data-testid="Body" href="/technology/disrupted/" class="text-module__text__0GDob text-module__medium-grey__yZtlg text-module__regular__qJJtA text-module__small__sph8i body-module__base__o--Cl body-module__small_body__gOmDf nav-dropdown-module__subsection-link__T9-bB">Disrupted</a></li></ul></section><section data-testid="MoreDropdown" class="nav-dropdown-module__more-section-group__6-L2e"><h2 data-testid="Heading" class="text-module__text__0GDob text-module__dark-grey__UFC18 text-module__medium__2Rl30 text-module__heading_6__u1KdJ heading-module__base__p-zaD heading-module__heading_6__-zrtS"><a data-testid="Body" href="/investigations/" class="text-module__text__0GDob text-module__graphite__fZRmg text-module__medium__2Rl30 text-module__body__9d61E body-module__base__o--Cl body-module__body_alt__0ewNU nav-dropdown-module__section-link__Mvj6r">Investigations</a></h2></section><section data-testid="MoreDropdown" class="nav-dropdown-module__more-section-group__6-L2e nav-dropdown-module__has-children__Wpz3R"><h2 data-testid="Heading" class="text-module__text__0GDob text-module__dark-grey__UFC18 text-module__medium__2Rl30 text-module__heading_6__u1KdJ heading-module__base__p-zaD heading-module__heading_6__-zrtS"><a data-testid="Body" href="/sports/" class="text-module__text__0GDob text-module__graphite__fZRmg text-module__medium__2Rl30 text-module__body__9d61E body-module__base__o--Cl body-module__body_alt__0ewNU nav-dropdown-module__section-link__Mvj6r">Sports</a></h2><ul class="nav-dropdown-module__subsections__ElxDL"><li><a data-testid="Body" href="/sports/world-cup/" class="text-module__text__0GDob text-module__medium-grey__yZtlg text-module__regular__qJJtA text-module__small__sph8i body-module__base__o--Cl body-module__small_body__gOmDf nav-dropdown-module__subsection-link__T9-bB">World Cup</a></li><li><a data-testid="Body" href="/sports/athletics/" class="text-module__text__0GDob text-module__medium-grey__yZtlg text-module__regular__qJJtA text-module__small__sph8i body-module__base__o--Cl body-module__small_body__gOmDf nav-dropdown-module__subsection-link__T9-bB">Athletics</a></li><li><a data-testid="Body" href="/sports/baseball/" class="text-module__text__0GDob text-module__medium-grey__yZtlg text-module__regular__qJJtA text-module__small__sph8i body-module__base__o--Cl body-module__small_body__gOmDf nav-dropdown-module__subsection-link__T9-bB">Baseball</a></li><li><a data-testid="Body" href="/sports/basketball/" class="text-module__text__0GDob text-module__medium-grey__yZtlg text-module__regular__qJJtA text-module__small__sph8i body-module__base__o--Cl body-module__small_body__gOmDf nav-dropdown-module__subsection-link__T9-bB">Basketball</a></li><li><a data-testid="Body" href="/sports/cricket/" class="text-module__text__0GDob text-module__medium-grey__yZtlg text-module__regular__qJJtA text-module__small__sph8i body-module__base__o--Cl body-module__small_body__gOmDf nav-dropdown-module__subsection-link__T9-bB">Cricket</a></li><li><a data-testid="Body" href="/sports/cycling/" class="text-module__text__0GDob text-module__medium-grey__yZtlg text-module__regular__qJJtA text-module__small__sph8i body-module__base__o--Cl body-module__small_body__gOmDf nav-dropdown-module__subsection-link__T9-bB">Cycling</a></li><li><a data-testid="Body" href="/sports/formula1/" class="text-module__text__0GDob text-module__medium-grey__yZtlg text-module__regular__qJJtA text-module__small__sph8i body-module__base__o--Cl body-module__small_body__gOmDf nav-dropdown-module__subsection-link__T9-bB">Formula 1</a></li><li><a data-testid="Body" href="/sports/golf/" class="text-module__text__0GDob text-module__medium-grey__yZtlg text-module__regular__qJJtA text-module__small__sph8i body-module__base__o--Cl body-module__small_body__gOmDf nav-dropdown-module__subsection-link__T9-bB">Golf</a></li><li><a data-testid="Body" href="/sports/nfl/" class="text-module__text__0GDob text-module__medium-grey__yZtlg text-module__regular__qJJtA text-module__small__sph8i body-module__base__o--Cl body-module__small_body__gOmDf nav-dropdown-module__subsection-link__T9-bB">NFL</a></li><li><a data-testid="Body" href="/sports/nhl/" class="text-module__text__0GDob text-module__medium-grey__yZtlg text-module__regular__qJJtA text-module__small__sph8i body-module__base__o--Cl body-module__small_body__gOmDf nav-dropdown-module__subsection-link__T9-bB">NHL</a></li><li><a data-testid="Body" href="/sports/soccer/" class="text-module__text__0GDob text-module__medium-grey__yZtlg text-module__regular__qJJtA text-module__small__sph8i body-module__base__o--Cl body-module__small_body__gOmDf nav-dropdown-module__subsection-link__T9-bB">Soccer</a></li><li><a data-testid="Body" href="/sports/tennis/" class="text-module__text__0GDob text-module__medium-grey__yZtlg text-module__regular__qJJtA text-module__small__sph8i body-module__base__o--Cl body-module__small_body__gOmDf nav-dropdown-module__subsection-link__T9-bB">Tennis</a></li></ul></section><section data-testid="MoreDropdown" class="nav-dropdown-module__more-section-group__6-L2e"><h2 data-testid="Heading" class="text-module__text__0GDob text-module__dark-grey__UFC18 text-module__medium__2Rl30 text-module__heading_6__u1KdJ heading-module__base__p-zaD heading-module__heading_6__-zrtS"><a data-testid="Body" href="/science/" class="text-module__text__0GDob text-module__graphite__fZRmg text-module__medium__2Rl30 text-module__body__9d61E body-module__base__o--Cl body-module__body_alt__0ewNU nav-dropdown-module__section-link__Mvj6r">Science</a></h2></section><section data-testid="MoreDropdown" class="nav-dropdown-module__more-section-group__6-L2e nav-dropdown-module__has-children__Wpz3R"><h2 data-testid="Heading" class="text-module__text__0GDob text-module__dark-grey__UFC18 text-module__medium__2Rl30 text-module__heading_6__u1KdJ heading-module__base__p-zaD heading-module__heading_6__-zrtS"><a data-testid="Body" href="/lifestyle/" class="text-module__text__0GDob text-module__graphite__fZRmg text-module__medium__2Rl30 text-module__body__9d61E body-module__base__o--Cl body-module__body_alt__0ewNU nav-dropdown-module__section-link__Mvj6r">Lifestyle</a></h2><ul class="nav-dropdown-module__subsections__ElxDL"><li><a data-testid="Body" href="/lifestyle/culture-current/" class="text-module__text__0GDob text-module__medium-grey__yZtlg text-module__regular__qJJtA text-module__small__sph8i body-module__base__o--Cl body-module__small_body__gOmDf nav-dropdown-module__subsection-link__T9-bB">Culture Current</a></li></ul></section><section data-testid="MoreDropdown" class="nav-dropdown-module__more-section-group__6-L2e"><h2 data-testid="Heading" class="text-module__text__0GDob text-module__dark-grey__UFC18 text-module__medium__2Rl30 text-module__heading_6__u1KdJ heading-module__base__p-zaD heading-module__heading_6__-zrtS"><a data-testid="Body" href="/city-memo/" class="text-module__text__0GDob text-module__graphite__fZRmg text-module__medium__2Rl30 text-module__body__9d61E body-module__base__o--Cl body-module__body_alt__0ewNU nav-dropdown-module__section-link__Mvj6r">City Memo</a></h2></section></div><div class="nav-dropdown-module__group-container__B7ZaS"><section data-testid="MoreDropdown" class="nav-dropdown-module__more-section-group__6-L2e nav-dropdown-module__has-children__Wpz3R"><h2 data-testid="Heading" class="text-module__text__0GDob text-module__dark-grey__UFC18 text-module__medium__2Rl30 text-module__heading_6__u1KdJ heading-module__base__p-zaD heading-module__heading_6__-zrtS"><a data-testid="Body" href="/graphics/" class="text-module__text__0GDob text-module__graphite__fZRmg text-module__medium__2Rl30 text-module__body__9d61E body-module__base__o--Cl body-module__body_alt__0ewNU nav-dropdown-module__section-link__Mvj6r">Graphics</a></h2><ul class="nav-dropdown-module__subsections__ElxDL"><li><a data-testid="Body" href="/chart-of-the-week/" class="text-module__text__0GDob text-module__medium-grey__yZtlg text-module__regular__qJJtA text-module__small__sph8i body-module__base__o--Cl body-module__small_body__gOmDf nav-dropdown-module__subsection-link__T9-bB">Chart of the Week</a></li></ul></section><section data-testid="MoreDropdown" class="nav-dropdown-module__more-section-group__6-L2e"><h2 data-testid="Heading" class="text-module__text__0GDob text-module__dark-grey__UFC18 text-module__medium__2Rl30 text-module__heading_6__u1KdJ heading-module__base__p-zaD heading-module__heading_6__-zrtS"><a data-testid="Body" href="/pictures/" class="text-module__text__0GDob text-module__graphite__fZRmg text-module__medium__2Rl30 text-module__body__9d61E body-module__base__o--Cl body-module__body_alt__0ewNU nav-dropdown-module__section-link__Mvj6r">Pictures</a></h2></section><section data-testid="MoreDropdown" class="nav-dropdown-module__more-section-group__6-L2e"><h2 data-testid="Heading" class="text-module__text__0GDob text-module__dark-grey__UFC18 text-module__medium__2Rl30 text-module__heading_6__u1KdJ heading-module__base__p-zaD heading-module__heading_6__-zrtS"><a data-testid="Body" href="/wider-image/" class="text-module__text__0GDob text-module__graphite__fZRmg text-module__medium__2Rl30 text-module__body__9d61E body-module__base__o--Cl body-module__body_alt__0ewNU nav-dropdown-module__section-link__Mvj6r">Wider Image</a></h2></section><section data-testid="MoreDropdown" class="nav-dropdown-module__more-section-group__6-L2e nav-dropdown-module__has-children__Wpz3R"><h2 data-testid="Heading" class="text-module__text__0GDob text-module__dark-grey__UFC18 text-module__medium__2Rl30 text-module__heading_6__u1KdJ heading-module__base__p-zaD heading-module__heading_6__-zrtS"><a data-testid="Body" href="/podcasts/" class="text-module__text__0GDob text-module__graphite__fZRmg text-module__medium__2Rl30 text-module__body__9d61E body-module__base__o--Cl body-module__body_alt__0ewNU nav-dropdown-module__section-link__Mvj6r">Podcasts</a></h2><ul class="nav-dropdown-module__subsections__ElxDL"><li><a data-testid="Body" href="/podcasts/reuters-world-news/" class="text-module__text__0GDob text-module__medium-grey__yZtlg text-module__regular__qJJtA text-module__small__sph8i body-module__base__o--Cl body-module__small_body__gOmDf nav-dropdown-module__subsection-link__T9-bB">Reuters World News</a></li><li><a data-testid="Body" href="/podcasts/reuters-morning-bid/" class="text-module__text__0GDob text-module__medium-grey__yZtlg text-module__regular__qJJtA text-module__small__sph8i body-module__base__o--Cl body-module__small_body__gOmDf nav-dropdown-module__subsection-link__T9-bB">Reuters Morning Bid</a></li><li><a data-testid="Body" href="/podcasts/reuters-econ-world/" class="text-module__text__0GDob text-module__medium-grey__yZtlg text-module__regular__qJJtA text-module__small__sph8i body-module__base__o--Cl body-module__small_body__gOmDf nav-dropdown-module__subsection-link__T9-bB">Reuters Econ World</a></li><li><a data-testid="Body" href="/podcasts/on-assignment/" class="text-module__text__0GDob text-module__medium-grey__yZtlg text-module__regular__qJJtA text-module__small__sph8i body-module__base__o--Cl body-module__small_body__gOmDf nav-dropdown-module__subsection-link__T9-bB">On Assignment</a></li><li><a data-testid="Body" href="/podcasts/viewsroom/" class="text-module__text__0GDob text-module__medium-grey__yZtlg text-module__regular__qJJtA text-module__small__sph8i body-module__base__o--Cl body-module__small_body__gOmDf nav-dropdown-module__subsection-link__T9-bB">Viewsroom</a></li><li><a data-testid="Body" href="/podcasts/the-big-view/" class="text-module__text__0GDob text-module__medium-grey__yZtlg text-module__regular__qJJtA text-module__small__sph8i body-module__base__o--Cl body-module__small_body__gOmDf nav-dropdown-module__subsection-link__T9-bB">The Big View</a></li></ul></section><section data-testid="MoreDropdown" class="nav-dropdown-module__more-section-group__6-L2e"><h2 data-testid="Heading" class="text-module__text__0GDob text-module__dark-grey__UFC18 text-module__medium__2Rl30 text-module__heading_6__u1KdJ heading-module__base__p-zaD heading-module__heading_6__-zrtS"><a data-testid="Body" href="/live/" class="text-module__text__0GDob text-module__graphite__fZRmg text-module__medium__2Rl30 text-module__body__9d61E body-module__base__o--Cl body-module__body_alt__0ewNU nav-dropdown-module__section-link__Mvj6r">Live</a></h2></section><section data-testid="MoreDropdown" class="nav-dropdown-module__more-section-group__6-L2e"><h2 data-testid="Heading" class="text-module__text__0GDob text-module__dark-grey__UFC18 text-module__medium__2Rl30 text-module__heading_6__u1KdJ heading-module__base__p-zaD heading-module__heading_6__-zrtS"><a data-testid="Body" href="/fact-check/" class="text-module__text__0GDob text-module__graphite__fZRmg text-module__medium__2Rl30 text-module__body__9d61E body-module__base__o--Cl body-module__body_alt__0ewNU nav-dropdown-module__section-link__Mvj6r">Fact Check</a></h2></section><section data-testid="MoreDropdown" class="nav-dropdown-module__more-section-group__6-L2e"><h2 data-testid="Heading" class="text-module__text__0GDob text-module__dark-grey__UFC18 text-module__medium__2Rl30 text-module__heading_6__u1KdJ heading-module__base__p-zaD heading-module__heading_6__-zrtS"><a data-testid="Body" href="/video/" class="text-module__text__0GDob text-module__graphite__fZRmg text-module__medium__2Rl30 text-module__body__9d61E body-module__base__o--Cl body-module__body_alt__0ewNU nav-dropdown-module__section-link__Mvj6r">Video</a></h2></section><section data-testid="MoreDropdown" class="nav-dropdown-module__more-section-group__6-L2e nav-dropdown-module__has-children__Wpz3R"><h2 data-testid="Heading" class="text-module__text__0GDob text-module__dark-grey__UFC18 text-module__medium__2Rl30 text-module__heading_6__u1KdJ heading-module__base__p-zaD heading-module__heading_6__-zrtS"><a data-testid="Body" href="/media-center/" class="text-module__text__0GDob text-module__graphite__fZRmg text-module__medium__2Rl30 text-module__body__9d61E body-module__base__o--Cl body-module__body_alt__0ewNU nav-dropdown-module__section-link__Mvj6r">Media Center</a></h2><ul class="nav-dropdown-module__subsections__ElxDL"><li><a data-testid="Body" href="/media-center/announcements/" class="text-module__text__0GDob text-module__medium-grey__yZtlg text-module__regular__qJJtA text-module__small__sph8i body-module__base__o--Cl body-module__small_body__gOmDf nav-dropdown-module__subsection-link__T9-bB">Announcements</a></li><li><a data-testid="Body" href="/media-center/awards/" class="text-module__text__0GDob text-module__medium-grey__yZtlg text-module__regular__qJJtA text-module__small__sph8i body-module__base__o--Cl body-module__small_body__gOmDf nav-dropdown-module__subsection-link__T9-bB">Awards</a></li><li><a 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story-card-module__image-link__4wq06"><div data-testid="Image" class="image story-card-module__image__NNKq2"><div class="styles-module__image-container__E0mCm styles-module__cover__SgyOM styles-module__center_center__bzABO styles-module__apply-ratio__u0jXJ styles-module__transition__joucY" style="--aspect-ratio:1.5"></div><noscript><img src="https://www.reuters.com/resizer/v2/HVYXY6YWJZMH7ECCBI6WKU6NK4.jpg?auth=f13e9945ea648a689f548dbac9b7b7b2ef300ce2a83c0aeb6a2b67cf0c4de1c2&width=1200&quality=80" alt="Equinor's Johan Sverdrup oilfield platforms and accommodation jack-up rig Haven are pictured in the North Sea" /></noscript></div><div data-testid="MediaImageMediaSymbol" class="image-module__media__IKLV9 media-module__symbol__O-kyE media-module__corner__lBxSF"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" viewBox="0 0 16 20" aria-hidden="true" focusable="false" role="presentation" aria-labelledby="react-aria-_R_15i7a6b5a_"><path d="m15.499 9.173-14-9.022C1.2-.05.8-.05.5.15c-.3.1-.5.4-.5.802v18.045c0 .4.2.701.5.902.2.1.3.1.5.1s.4-.1.5-.2l14-9.023c.3-.201.5-.502.5-.802 0-.301-.2-.702-.5-.803l-.001.001ZM2 17.193V2.757L13.2 9.975 2 17.193Z"></path></svg></div></a></figure></div></li><li class="read-next-v2-module__item__F8aJ9" inert=""><div class="story-card-module__tpl-common__G5wYS story-card-module__tpl-full-media-on-top__ps3O2 story-card-module__transition-no-date-for-extra-wide-desktop__20m3z story-card-module__transition-no-date-for-desktop__b65V6 story-card-module__transition-no-date-for-tablet__2zqMx story-card-module__transition-media-on-right-for-mobile__ygju8 read-next-v2-module__story-card__Bus22" data-are-authors="true" data-has-multiple-authors="true" data-dir="ltr" data-testid="StoryCard" tabindex="-1"><time data-testid="DateLineText" dateTime="2026-10-02T16:16:00.367Z" class="text-module__text__0GDob text-module__medium-grey__yZtlg text-module__light__ZYtNU text-module__ultra_small__6-vhY 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href="/business/energy/trump-says-us-deal-with-south-korea-includes-84-billion-for-oil-recovery-2026-10-02/" class="text-module__text__0GDob text-module__dark-grey__UFC18 text-module__inherit-font__1P1hv text-module__inherit-size__EyiQW link-module__link__INqxZ link-module__underline_on_hover__YTwYC"><span data-testid="TitleHeading" class="text-module__text__0GDob text-module__inherit-color__PhuPF text-module__medium__2Rl30 text-module__heading_6__u1KdJ heading-module__base__p-zaD heading-module__heading_6__-zrtS title-module__heading__ZrRzk">Trump says US deal with South Korea has $8.4 billion for oil recovery</span></a></div><figure class=" image-container no-caption story-card-module__area-media__N2Hg6" data-testid="MediaImage"><a data-testid="MediaImageLink" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1" referrerPolicy="no-referrer-when-downgrade" href="/business/energy/trump-says-us-deal-with-south-korea-includes-84-billion-for-oil-recovery-2026-10-02/" class="text-module__text__0GDob 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src="https://www.reuters.com/resizer/v2/KJK5LIMU35MEXDGGI44VYGBS3I.jpg?auth=f6ba4cd7a9934a677c3e0b8b4652e06f26d9f5668cbced41ee985034c00f482d&width=1200&quality=80" width="4000" height="2958" alt="Illustration shows "AI Artificial Inteligence" words" /></noscript></div><div data-testid="Media" class="media-story-card-module__media__a-Vic media-module__symbol__O-kyE media-module__corner__lBxSF"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" viewBox="0 0 16 20" aria-hidden="true" focusable="false" role="presentation" aria-labelledby="react-aria-_R_ibbr5a_"><path d="m15.499 9.173-14-9.022C1.2-.05.8-.05.5.15c-.3.1-.5.4-.5.802v18.045c0 .4.2.701.5.902.2.1.3.1.5.1s.4-.1.5-.2l14-9.023c.3-.201.5-.502.5-.802 0-.301-.2-.702-.5-.803l-.001.001ZM2 17.193V2.757L13.2 9.975 2 17.193Z"></path></svg></div></div></a></div><div class="media-story-card-module__body__nZjo1"><h3 data-testid="Heading" class="text-module__text__0GDob text-module__dark-grey__UFC18 text-module__medium__2Rl30 text-module__heading_3__mSQzZ heading-module__base__p-zaD heading-module__heading_3__ESrdL"><a data-testid="Link" aria-label="AI's race to transform the world before the money runs out, includes video" referrerPolicy="no-referrer-when-downgrade" href="https://www.reuters.com/business/retail-consumer/ais-race-transform-world-before-money-runs-out-2026-10-03/" class="text-module__text__0GDob text-module__dark-grey__UFC18 text-module__inherit-font__1P1hv text-module__inherit-size__EyiQW link-module__link__INqxZ link-module__underline_on_hover__YTwYC link-module__inherit-line-height__1vd2c media-story-card-module__heading__xgKcP">AI's race to transform the world before the money runs out</a></h3><span data-testid="Label" class="text-module__text__0GDob text-module__inherit-color__PhuPF text-module__light__ZYtNU text-module__default__R2Ckt label-module__label__Sv2H2 kicker_hero media-story-card-module__section__PyVDc"><span data-testid="Text" class="text-module__text__0GDob text-module__inherit-color__PhuPF text-module__inherit-font__1P1hv text-module__inherit-size__EyiQW">ANALYSIS</span> · <time dateTime="2026-10-03T05:06:40.503Z">October 3, 2026 · 5:06 AM UTC</time> · ago</span><p data-testid="Body" class="text-module__text__0GDob text-module__dark-grey__UFC18 text-module__regular__qJJtA text-module__large__03GSP body-module__base__o--Cl body-module__large_body__NQgnj media-story-card-module__description__DzXN2">Never has so much cash flowed into a new technology as is pouring into AI, eclipsing the sums splurged on railways or the internet when those technological revolutions sucked in capital.</p></div></div></li><li class="story-collection-module__list-item__nvJUz story-collection-module__story__A3dpi story-collection-module__default__k3Xt2 story-collection-module__with-spacing__OhP-U" id="HMWG5GA5DVKJ7C2DB32HOACMTA" data-testid="one_hero_and_two_columns"><div data-testid="MediaStoryCard" class="media-story-card-module__hub__y3KsD story-card"><div 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20.6465 2.7 20.6465H5.03846C5.59075 20.6465 6.03846 20.1987 6.03846 19.6465V12.7234C6.03846 12.1711 5.59075 11.7234 5.03846 11.7234H4.52695V8.72305Z"></path></svg></div><a data-testid="Link" target="_self" referrerPolicy="no-referrer-when-downgrade" href="https://www.reuters.com/podcasts/" class="text-module__text__0GDob text-module__dark-grey__UFC18 text-module__medium__2Rl30 text-module__default__R2Ckt link-module__link__INqxZ link-module__underline_on_hover__YTwYC link-group-module__link__BcHeN"><span data-testid="LinkGroupItem" class="text-module__text__0GDob text-module__dark-grey__UFC18 text-module__medium__2Rl30 text-module__heading_6__u1KdJ">Podcasts</span></a></li></ul></section></div><section data-testid="LinkGroup" class="site-footer-module__link-group__Hxt4R site-footer-module__hidden-mobile__5cjU9"><h3 data-testid="Heading" class="text-module__text__0GDob text-module__dark-grey__UFC18 text-module__light__ZYtNU text-module__heading_6__u1KdJ heading-module__base__p-zaD heading-module__heading_6_light__klgho link-group-module__label__mDGn2">Latest</h3><ul class="link-group-module__list__yrOzI link-group-module__vertical__vGvtx"><li class="link-group-module__item__Za3t6"><a data-testid="Link" target="_self" referrerPolicy="no-referrer-when-downgrade" href="/" class="text-module__text__0GDob text-module__dark-grey__UFC18 text-module__medium__2Rl30 text-module__default__R2Ckt link-module__link__INqxZ link-module__underline_on_hover__YTwYC link-group-module__link__BcHeN"><span data-testid="LinkGroupItem" class="text-module__text__0GDob text-module__dark-grey__UFC18 text-module__medium__2Rl30 text-module__heading_6__u1KdJ">Home</span></a></li><li class="link-group-module__item__Za3t6"><a data-testid="Link" target="_self" referrerPolicy="no-referrer-when-downgrade" href="/sitemap/authors/" class="text-module__text__0GDob text-module__dark-grey__UFC18 text-module__medium__2Rl30 text-module__default__R2Ckt link-module__link__INqxZ link-module__underline_on_hover__YTwYC link-group-module__link__BcHeN"><span data-testid="LinkGroupItem" class="text-module__text__0GDob text-module__dark-grey__UFC18 text-module__medium__2Rl30 text-module__heading_6__u1KdJ">Authors</span></a></li><li class="link-group-module__item__Za3t6"><a data-testid="Link" target="_self" referrerPolicy="no-referrer-when-downgrade" href="/sitemap/topics/" class="text-module__text__0GDob text-module__dark-grey__UFC18 text-module__medium__2Rl30 text-module__default__R2Ckt link-module__link__INqxZ link-module__underline_on_hover__YTwYC link-group-module__link__BcHeN"><span data-testid="LinkGroupItem" class="text-module__text__0GDob text-module__dark-grey__UFC18 text-module__medium__2Rl30 text-module__heading_6__u1KdJ">Topic Sitemap</span></a></li><li class="link-group-module__item__Za3t6"><a data-testid="Link" target="_self" referrerPolicy="no-referrer-when-downgrade" href="/archive/" class="text-module__text__0GDob text-module__dark-grey__UFC18 text-module__medium__2Rl30 text-module__default__R2Ckt link-module__link__INqxZ link-module__underline_on_hover__YTwYC link-group-module__link__BcHeN"><span data-testid="LinkGroupItem" class="text-module__text__0GDob text-module__dark-grey__UFC18 text-module__medium__2Rl30 text-module__heading_6__u1KdJ">Archive</span></a></li><li class="link-group-module__item__Za3t6"><a data-testid="Link" target="_self" referrerPolicy="no-referrer-when-downgrade" href="/sitemap/" class="text-module__text__0GDob text-module__dark-grey__UFC18 text-module__medium__2Rl30 text-module__default__R2Ckt link-module__link__INqxZ link-module__underline_on_hover__YTwYC link-group-module__link__BcHeN"><span data-testid="LinkGroupItem" class="text-module__text__0GDob text-module__dark-grey__UFC18 text-module__medium__2Rl30 text-module__heading_6__u1KdJ">Article Sitemap</span></a></li></ul></section><section data-testid="LinkGroup" class="site-footer-module__link-group__Hxt4R"><h3 data-testid="Heading" class="text-module__text__0GDob text-module__dark-grey__UFC18 text-module__light__ZYtNU text-module__heading_6__u1KdJ heading-module__base__p-zaD heading-module__heading_6_light__klgho link-group-module__label__mDGn2">Browse</h3><ul class="link-group-module__list__yrOzI link-group-module__vertical__vGvtx"><li class="link-group-module__item__Za3t6"><a data-testid="Link" target="_self" referrerPolicy="no-referrer-when-downgrade" href="/world/" class="text-module__text__0GDob text-module__dark-grey__UFC18 text-module__medium__2Rl30 text-module__default__R2Ckt link-module__link__INqxZ link-module__underline_on_hover__YTwYC link-group-module__link__BcHeN"><span data-testid="LinkGroupItem" class="text-module__text__0GDob text-module__dark-grey__UFC18 text-module__medium__2Rl30 text-module__heading_6__u1KdJ">World</span></a></li><li class="link-group-module__item__Za3t6"><a data-testid="Link" target="_self" referrerPolicy="no-referrer-when-downgrade" href="/business/" class="text-module__text__0GDob text-module__dark-grey__UFC18 text-module__medium__2Rl30 text-module__default__R2Ckt link-module__link__INqxZ link-module__underline_on_hover__YTwYC link-group-module__link__BcHeN"><span data-testid="LinkGroupItem" class="text-module__text__0GDob text-module__dark-grey__UFC18 text-module__medium__2Rl30 text-module__heading_6__u1KdJ">Business</span></a></li><li class="link-group-module__item__Za3t6"><a data-testid="Link" target="_self" referrerPolicy="no-referrer-when-downgrade" href="/markets/" class="text-module__text__0GDob text-module__dark-grey__UFC18 text-module__medium__2Rl30 text-module__default__R2Ckt link-module__link__INqxZ link-module__underline_on_hover__YTwYC link-group-module__link__BcHeN"><span data-testid="LinkGroupItem" class="text-module__text__0GDob text-module__dark-grey__UFC18 text-module__medium__2Rl30 text-module__heading_6__u1KdJ">Markets</span></a></li><li class="link-group-module__item__Za3t6"><a data-testid="Link" target="_self" referrerPolicy="no-referrer-when-downgrade" href="/sustainability/" class="text-module__text__0GDob text-module__dark-grey__UFC18 text-module__medium__2Rl30 text-module__default__R2Ckt link-module__link__INqxZ link-module__underline_on_hover__YTwYC link-group-module__link__BcHeN"><span data-testid="LinkGroupItem" class="text-module__text__0GDob text-module__dark-grey__UFC18 text-module__medium__2Rl30 text-module__heading_6__u1KdJ">Sustainability</span></a></li><li class="link-group-module__item__Za3t6"><a data-testid="Link" target="_self" referrerPolicy="no-referrer-when-downgrade" href="/legal/" class="text-module__text__0GDob text-module__dark-grey__UFC18 text-module__medium__2Rl30 text-module__default__R2Ckt link-module__link__INqxZ link-module__underline_on_hover__YTwYC link-group-module__link__BcHeN"><span data-testid="LinkGroupItem" class="text-module__text__0GDob text-module__dark-grey__UFC18 text-module__medium__2Rl30 text-module__heading_6__u1KdJ">Legal</span></a></li><li class="link-group-module__item__Za3t6"><a data-testid="Link" target="_self" referrerPolicy="no-referrer-when-downgrade" href="/breakingviews/" class="text-module__text__0GDob text-module__dark-grey__UFC18 text-module__medium__2Rl30 text-module__default__R2Ckt link-module__link__INqxZ link-module__underline_on_hover__YTwYC link-group-module__link__BcHeN"><span data-testid="LinkGroupItem" class="text-module__text__0GDob text-module__dark-grey__UFC18 text-module__medium__2Rl30 text-module__heading_6__u1KdJ">Breakingviews</span></a></li><li class="link-group-module__item__Za3t6"><a data-testid="Link" target="_self" referrerPolicy="no-referrer-when-downgrade" href="/technology/" class="text-module__text__0GDob text-module__dark-grey__UFC18 text-module__medium__2Rl30 text-module__default__R2Ckt link-module__link__INqxZ link-module__underline_on_hover__YTwYC link-group-module__link__BcHeN"><span data-testid="LinkGroupItem" class="text-module__text__0GDob text-module__dark-grey__UFC18 text-module__medium__2Rl30 text-module__heading_6__u1KdJ">Technology</span></a></li><li class="link-group-module__item__Za3t6"><a data-testid="Link" target="_self" referrerPolicy="no-referrer-when-downgrade" href="/investigations/" class="text-module__text__0GDob text-module__dark-grey__UFC18 text-module__medium__2Rl30 text-module__default__R2Ckt link-module__link__INqxZ link-module__underline_on_hover__YTwYC link-group-module__link__BcHeN"><span data-testid="LinkGroupItem" class="text-module__text__0GDob text-module__dark-grey__UFC18 text-module__medium__2Rl30 text-module__heading_6__u1KdJ">Investigations</span></a></li><li class="link-group-module__item__Za3t6"><a data-testid="Link" target="_self" referrerPolicy="no-referrer-when-downgrade" href="/sports/" class="text-module__text__0GDob text-module__dark-grey__UFC18 text-module__medium__2Rl30 text-module__default__R2Ckt link-module__link__INqxZ link-module__underline_on_hover__YTwYC link-group-module__link__BcHeN"><span data-testid="LinkGroupItem" class="text-module__text__0GDob text-module__dark-grey__UFC18 text-module__medium__2Rl30 text-module__heading_6__u1KdJ">Sports</span></a></li><li class="link-group-module__item__Za3t6"><a data-testid="Link" target="_self" referrerPolicy="no-referrer-when-downgrade" href="/science/" class="text-module__text__0GDob text-module__dark-grey__UFC18 text-module__medium__2Rl30 text-module__default__R2Ckt link-module__link__INqxZ link-module__underline_on_hover__YTwYC link-group-module__link__BcHeN"><span data-testid="LinkGroupItem" class="text-module__text__0GDob text-module__dark-grey__UFC18 text-module__medium__2Rl30 text-module__heading_6__u1KdJ">Science</span></a></li><li class="link-group-module__item__Za3t6"><a data-testid="Link" target="_self" referrerPolicy="no-referrer-when-downgrade" href="/lifestyle/" class="text-module__text__0GDob text-module__dark-grey__UFC18 text-module__medium__2Rl30 text-module__default__R2Ckt link-module__link__INqxZ link-module__underline_on_hover__YTwYC link-group-module__link__BcHeN"><span data-testid="LinkGroupItem" class="text-module__text__0GDob text-module__dark-grey__UFC18 text-module__medium__2Rl30 text-module__heading_6__u1KdJ">Lifestyle</span></a></li></ul></section><section data-testid="LinkGroup" class="site-footer-module__link-group__Hxt4R site-footer-module__hidden-mobile__5cjU9"><h3 data-testid="Heading" class="text-module__text__0GDob text-module__dark-grey__UFC18 text-module__light__ZYtNU text-module__heading_6__u1KdJ heading-module__base__p-zaD heading-module__heading_6_light__klgho link-group-module__label__mDGn2">Media</h3><ul class="link-group-module__list__yrOzI link-group-module__vertical__vGvtx"><li class="link-group-module__item__Za3t6"><div data-testid="Media" class="link-group-module__symbol__vLvQd media-module__symbol__O-kyE media-module__none__3jUM3"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" 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They've gone from less than $4 a gallon back in early March, late February, to a record high of around $6.50 a gallon, most recently. That $6.50 is a national average. So it is true that in some portions of the country, California, for instance, you're probably paying more than $8 a gallon and a little less than others. But no matter where you are, no one has paid this price for diesel fuel before now. The reason diesel matters so much, even though most people don't use it to fuel their cars is because it powers heavy machinery. It powers trucks it powers the irrigation systems that farmers use and the tractors they use, right? So that feeds into everything that you might consume at a grocery store. So it's going to affect food costs. It's going to affect beverage costs. It's going to affect eating out. It's going to affect the price of anything that you get delivered to you because most of those vehicles run on diesel fuel. Economists have begun to get concerned that we're really just starting to see the effects of this on overall inflation. And in all likelihood, the Federal Reserve is going to be put in a position where it has to try to restrict that demand in the economy to lower prices ultimately. And that, as you know, happens through interest rate increases. 'Have you decided to ban diesel exports?' 'I'm thinking about it.' So it has become the focus of a lot of international tension. Reuters reported earlier that there's a lot of pressure being put by the U.S., on France and Germany to release more petroleum reserves, including diesel reserves, to help alleviate some of those prices or potentially facing an export ban of U.S. diesel. The U.S. is a major, major exporter of diesel, and that would be problematic for international markets, but it would also be problematic for U.S. prices because we don't refine diesel products everywhere across the United States. So those geographical quirks mean that even an export ban might have a short-term effect on lifting supplies in the United States and reducing the price for a bit, but it will change refining dynamics and most petroleum market experts and economists expect ultimately the effect would be that it would lift prices, not relieve them for a long time."},"published_time":"2026-10-01T22:18:32Z","updated_time":"2026-10-01T22:18:35Z","thumbnail":{"url":"https://ajo.prod.reuters.tv/api/v2/img/6abedb53e4b0142a92dbfe29-1790892897872","caption":"Record-high diesel prices could push up the cost of food, deliveries and other goods while adding to inflationary pressures. 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Pacific Link will materially reduce that dependence by allowing us to export an additional 1 million barrels a day to growing markets in Asia. That means more customers, more choice, higher prices for all Canadian energy producers, and it means greater long-term security of demand. We estimate the Pacific Link will create 140,000 jobs across the country from the engineers who design it, the pipe fitters who lay it, the welders who connect it. It will generate over $20 billion in GDP per year and over $100 billion in government revenue by 2060. Even under any plausible net zero scenario, the IEA forecasts the world will still need tens of millions of barrels of crude a day. So, the question is: Who will emerge as the world's trusted suppliers? It should be us. It must be Canada. 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Ugandan President Yoweri Museveni and Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed were among regional leaders attending the ceremony.","type":"image","resizer_url":"https://ajo.prod.reuters.tv/api/v2/img/6abd0f42e4b00e902ff5c8f2-1790775133950"},"source":{"hls":"https://ajo.prod.reuters.tv/v3/playlist/789237/master.m3u8"},"channels":[{"id":"Global_Energy","name":"Energy","regions":["US"]},{"id":"ddb1146e24bce17df8d8d6953a8677a248c026bc","name":"Africa","regions":["US"]},{"id":"6ffc0233e09c26943b265ef3abd575b2d872818b","name":"Business","regions":["US"]}],"advert_info":{"advert_params":[{"key":"adfriendly","value":true}],"advert_zone":"/4735792/reuters.com/business/energy"},"meta_data":[{"key":"upstream-description","value":"Nigerian billionaire Aliko Dangote and Kenyan President William Ruto broke ground on Wednesday (September 30) on a planned $16 billion oil refinery aimed at meeting growing demand for petroleum products across East Africa. 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For Reuters customers only."},{"key":"package-mood","value":"Neutral"},{"key":"link","value":"tag:reuters.com,2026:newsml_RW650330092026RP1:4"},{"key":"upstream-channel-code","value":"hml568"},{"key":"upstream-title","value":"Nigeria's Dangote breaks ground on $16 billion oil refinery in Kenya"},{"key":"external-asset-id","value":"285_RW650330092026RP1"},{"key":"lmp-feed","value":"lp"},{"key":"package-notes","value":"DANGOTE, REFINERY, LAMU, CRUDE OIL, KENYA, EAST AFRICA"},{"key":"publisher-name","value":"reuters.com"},{"key":"package-format","value":"Other"},{"key":"region","value":"Remote"},{"key":"byline","value":"LAMU, KENYA"}],"usn":"RW650330092026RP1"},{"id":"RW640430092026RP1","type":"video","subtype":"application/x-mpegURL","external_id":"RW640430092026RP1","title":"A California farmer feels the strain of record diesel prices","description":"Diesel powers nearly every part of Craig Underwood's California farm. But as fuel prices hit record highs, the 84-year-old says the rising costs have become impossible to escape, keeping him awake at night and squeezing the economics of growing food. Cara Angeline Oliver has more.","duration":185.73,"transcript_data":{"transcript":"'It's pretty hard for us to budget for a dramatic increase in the cost of diesel. We use diesel in everything.' 'We use it in our tractors, we use in our booster pumps, we use in our trucks.' 'I mean diesel runs the country really.' Every morning, Craig Underwood walks fields that have been in his family for generations. At 84, the founder of Underwood Farms oversees thousands of acres in California, growing everything from cilantro to tomatoes and watermelons. But this year, one cost has become impossible to ignore. 'It grinds on you, you know?' 'When I wake up in the morning, I'm thinking about it, when I go to bed at night, I am thinking about.' 'I'm trying to put it out of my brain in order to sleep.' 'But you do think about it a lot.' Diesel powers nearly every part of his operation, from irrigation pumps to tractors and trucks moving produce across the country. Now Underwood says diesel costs at his farm are around 40% higher than they were a year ago. 'When somebody looks at the cost at the head of lettuce, it doesn't, first of all, the farmer's not getting the majority of that dollar, and the other thing is, a good chunk of that dollar’s going for transportation.' 'Because we're shipping food all over the country in order to keep people fed year-round with fresh produce, and diesel is involved in all of it.' The national average price for diesel recently hit a record high of just over $6.50 a gallon, according to the AAA. For farmers like Underwood, the added costs ripple far beyond the fuel tank. And he lays much of the blame on President Donald Trump's move to start a war with Iran: 'Certainly, the war has stirred everything up. And, you know, the price of all energy is up. The price of fertilizers is up as a result of the war.' Underwood says he's cut expenses where he can and changed some farming practices to save money. Still, he says those savings have been swallowed up by fuel costs. 'Certainly, in my lifetime, I've never seen diesel move up like that. We bought a lot of diesel trucks thinking they're more efficient, they last longer, and oftentimes diesel was less expensive than gas. Well now it's way more expensive than gas.' California is one of the world's largest agricultural producers, and Underwood says rising fuel costs are being felt across the industry. After decades of farming, he says adapting to change is part of the job, even when the challenges are beyond his control. But he says Trump, and his supporters, should have seen the problems coming: 'The handwriting was on the wall forever.' 'So I'm probably most upset with the people that put him in office.'"},"published_time":"2026-09-30T11:56:44Z","updated_time":"2026-09-30T11:56:48Z","thumbnail":{"url":"https://ajo.prod.reuters.tv/api/v2/img/6abcf87be4b00e902ff5c884","caption":"Diesel powers nearly every part of Craig Underwood's California farm. But as fuel prices hit record highs, the 84-year-old says the rising costs have become impossible to escape, keeping him awake at night and squeezing the economics of growing food. Cara Angeline Oliver has more.","type":"image","resizer_url":"https://ajo.prod.reuters.tv/api/v2/img/6abcf87be4b00e902ff5c884"},"source":{"hls":"https://ajo.prod.reuters.tv/v3/playlist/789222/master.m3u8"},"channels":[{"id":"Global_Energy","name":"Energy","regions":["US"]},{"id":"HPUS","name":"RCOM Homepage US","regions":["US"]},{"id":"13978","name":"US News","regions":["US"]},{"id":"6ffc0233e09c26943b265ef3abd575b2d872818b","name":"Business","regions":["US"]}],"advert_info":{"advert_params":[{"key":"adfriendly","value":true}],"advert_zone":"/4735792/reuters.com/business/energy"},"meta_data":[{"key":"upstream-description","value":"Diesel powers nearly every part of Craig Underwood's California farm. But as fuel prices hit record highs, the 84-year-old says the rising costs have become impossible to escape, keeping him awake at night and squeezing the economics of growing food. Cara Angeline Oliver has more."},{"key":"copyright","value":"(c) 2026 Thomson Reuters, unless otherwise identified. Full statement available at https://www.thomsonreuters.com/en/policies/copyright.html"},{"key":"package-no-social","value":"Yes"},{"key":"hidden","value":"false"},{"key":"dateline","value":"Reuters, Reuters, SEP 30"},{"key":"package-restrictions","value":"Broadcast: None. Digital: None.. For Reuters customers only."},{"key":"package-mood","value":"Neutral"},{"key":"link","value":"tag:reuters.com,2026:newsml_RW640430092026RP1:4"},{"key":"upstream-channel-code","value":"vty454,hml568"},{"key":"upstream-title","value":"A California farmer feels the strain of record diesel prices"},{"key":"external-asset-id","value":"285_RW640430092026RP1"},{"key":"lmp-feed","value":"lp"},{"key":"package-notes","value":"transportation costs, diesel costs, diesel prices, California agriculture, California farmer, record diesel prices, agricultural costs, California economy, diesel surge, cost of farming, fuel prices, farmers struggling, diesel price hike, diesel crisis"},{"key":"publisher-name","value":"reuters.com"},{"key":"package-format","value":"Other"},{"key":"region","value":"Remote"},{"key":"byline","value":"FILLMORE, CALIFORNIA, UNITED STATES / VARIOUS"}],"usn":"RW640430092026RP1"},{"id":"RW622629092026RP1","type":"video","subtype":"application/x-mpegURL","external_id":"RW622629092026RP1","title":"Lufthansa warns jet fuel struggle will continue","description":"Lufthansa's jet fuel bill this year will exceed the $1.7 billion (€1.5 billion) it flagged in August as the Iran war drags on and oil prices spike, CEO Carsten Spohr said. It comes as airlines continue to face a growing jet fuel crisis as they try to adapt. Europe Airlines and Travel Correspondent Joanna Plucinska has the story. ","duration":167.7,"transcript_data":{"transcript":"It's just a time where the strongest survive and the weakest either completely reshape themselves, have to find a new investor or fall apart. This is the third projection for the cost of jet fuel that they've given, which I think shows how challenging it's been for airlines lately to predict and know, What the costs are going to be given how volatile the cost of oil and the cost of jet fuel is in general. And it's interesting because Lufthansa is one of the best hedged airlines in Europe. It is hedged for about 86% of its jet fuel needs, which means that the price is pre-negotiated. And even still, they're having such a hard time predicting how much their final bill is actually going to be. In May they had said it would be 1.7 billion euros above. Then they downgraded it to 1.5 in August. They haven't given a specific number, but they're saying actually that 1.5 billion euro figure is going to be higher. And I think in a way it makes sense why they haven't provided a specific figure given the uncertainty in the current situation. Right now, jet fuel is obviously at record highs, depending on where you're buying it from, whether it's European or U.S. sources, it can be up to $140. I think a lot of airlines have hedged, like Ryanair, for example, they hedged before the crisis started up until March of 2027. And again, they are also looking at their future and they're saying, either we have to cut the amount of flights that we're flying, So that we are not using as much jet fuel as before or we're going to have to raise ticket prices. And I think that's what Lufthansa has done, Air France has raised ticket prices, British Airways has raised tickets prices. Everyone has, in some way had to adjust in order to manage this difference in price. So in Europe, airBaltic filed for a Chapter 11 bankruptcy earlier this month. And there's a lot of speculation about who might be next. And in part, it's just because airlines can't afford to keep flying in some situations. A large group like Lufthansa is probably more resilient than a small carrier like airBaltic, but still they're being hit quite hard. This is certainly the worst thing that has happened to the sector since COVID. We just don't know when that Strait of Hormuz is going to reopen and when the flow of jet fuel is going to return to what it was before. Even if the war were to end today, I think it would still take a very long time to figure out the logistics."},"published_time":"2026-09-29T14:44:03Z","updated_time":"2026-09-29T14:44:05Z","thumbnail":{"url":"https://ajo.prod.reuters.tv/api/v2/img/6abbce00e4b00e902ff5c501-1790692943136","caption":"Lufthansa's jet fuel bill this year will exceed the $1.7 billion (€1.5 billion) it flagged in August as the Iran war drags on and oil prices spike, CEO Carsten Spohr said. It comes as airlines continue to face a growing jet fuel crisis as they try to adapt. Europe Airlines and Travel Correspondent Joanna Plucinska has the story. ","type":"image","resizer_url":"https://ajo.prod.reuters.tv/api/v2/img/6abbce00e4b00e902ff5c501-1790692943136"},"source":{"hls":"https://ajo.prod.reuters.tv/v3/playlist/789122/master.m3u8"},"channels":[{"id":"Global_Energy","name":"Energy","regions":["US"]},{"id":"HPUS","name":"RCOM Homepage US","regions":["US"]},{"id":"autos-and-transportation","name":"Autos and Transportation","regions":["US"]},{"id":"6ffc0233e09c26943b265ef3abd575b2d872818b","name":"Business","regions":["US"]}],"advert_info":{"advert_params":[{"key":"adfriendly","value":true}],"advert_zone":"/4735792/reuters.com/business/energy"},"meta_data":[{"key":"upstream-description","value":"Lufthansa's jet fuel bill this year will exceed the $1.7 billion (€1.5 billion) it flagged in August as the Iran war drags on and oil prices spike, CEO Carsten Spohr said. It comes as airlines continue to face a growing jet fuel crisis as they try to adapt. Europe Airlines and Travel Correspondent Joanna Plucinska has the story. "},{"key":"copyright","value":"(c) 2026 Thomson Reuters, unless otherwise identified. Full statement available at https://www.thomsonreuters.com/en/policies/copyright.html"},{"key":"package-no-social","value":"Yes"},{"key":"hidden","value":"false"},{"key":"dateline","value":"Reuters, Reuters, SEP 29"},{"key":"package-restrictions","value":"Broadcast: None. Digital: None.. 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Angela Ukomadu explains.","duration":157.73,"transcript_data":{"transcript":"'Transportation is taking more than the minimum wage.' 'Petrol is like the center of everything that we do here for every kind of business.' I've seen the bus fares go as high as extra 40% Sometimes they're actually running empty, but they've increased their fare prices and they are increasing it for people who are working. This has also affected the prices of food. We have trucks that ferry these goods all the way from the northern part of the country to the west here. And because they are now buying petrol for 20% extra, it now means they have to add that extra cost to the food they are bringing in. And then the sellers will also put that cost on the goods they are selling. And then this is now the weight of the common man to bear. People are no longer coming to market as usual because everything is on the high side, and we that are bringing goods from one state to another state, it is really affecting us seriously because by the time you calculate the money which you used to buy, and the money you pay for transport, you bring it to the shop, you won't get anything, it is as if you are exchanging money. People are not happy. They feel that this government has failed them and unfortunately, they also think that their votes don't matter. Before President Tinubu came into power, people were buying petrol for about 185 Naira to 200 Naira, right? And then on the first day, he was being sworn in, he removed the subsidy and people started buying petrol for about 750 Naira. So between that time and now, it's an extra 750 Naira, because people are buying petrol for 1,500 Naira and that is 100% increment. Most people don't feel that this administration is the answer to their problem. They've got several promises from the government saying, endure, have patience, things will get better. But each time it gets worse. So it's just, there's just this general feeling of despair out there. 'We used to make better profit compared to now, at least at the end of the day, after work you still have something reasonable to take home to your family, but presently now, everything that you do...the fuel crisis is even affecting our job.'"},"published_time":"2026-09-22T12:20:16Z","updated_time":"2026-09-22T12:20:18Z","thumbnail":{"url":"https://ajo.prod.reuters.tv/api/v2/img/6ab271dee4b07fa3330d5b51-1790079465843","caption":"Nigeria's fuel prices have climbed to record highs as tensions in the Middle East push up global oil prices, piling fresh cost-of-living pressure on President Bola Tinubu's government ahead of elections in less than six months. Angela Ukomadu explains.","type":"image","resizer_url":"https://ajo.prod.reuters.tv/api/v2/img/6ab271dee4b07fa3330d5b51-1790079465843"},"source":{"hls":"https://ajo.prod.reuters.tv/v3/playlist/788543/master.m3u8"},"channels":[{"id":"Global_Energy","name":"Energy","regions":["US"]},{"id":"World_News_US","name":"World News","regions":["US"]},{"id":"ddb1146e24bce17df8d8d6953a8677a248c026bc","name":"Africa","regions":["US"]},{"id":"HPUS","name":"RCOM Homepage US","regions":["US"]}],"advert_info":{"advert_params":[{"key":"adfriendly","value":true}],"advert_zone":"/4735792/reuters.com/business/energy"},"meta_data":[{"key":"upstream-description","value":"Nigeria's fuel prices have climbed to record highs as tensions in the Middle East push up global oil prices, piling fresh cost-of-living pressure on President Bola Tinubu's government ahead of elections in less than six months. Angela Ukomadu explains."},{"key":"copyright","value":"(c) 2026 Thomson Reuters, unless otherwise identified. Full statement available at https://www.thomsonreuters.com/en/policies/copyright.html"},{"key":"package-no-social","value":"Yes"},{"key":"hidden","value":"false"},{"key":"dateline","value":"Reuters, Reuters, SEP 22"},{"key":"package-restrictions","value":"Broadcast: No use Nigeria. Digital: No use Nigeria. . For Reuters customers only."},{"key":"package-mood","value":"Neutral"},{"key":"link","value":"tag:reuters.com,2026:newsml_RW424021092026RP1:4"},{"key":"upstream-channel-code","value":"vty454,hml568"},{"key":"upstream-title","value":"Soaring fuel prices revive Nigeria's pressures ahead of election"},{"key":"external-asset-id","value":"285_RW424021092026RP1"},{"key":"lmp-feed","value":"lp"},{"key":"package-notes","value":"NIGERIA, NIGERIA FUEL, NIGERIA ELECTIONS"},{"key":"publisher-name","value":"reuters.com"},{"key":"package-format","value":"Other"},{"key":"region","value":"Remote"},{"key":"byline","value":"ABUJA AND LAGOS, NIGERIA"}],"usn":"RW424021092026RP1"},{"id":"RW342017092026RP1","type":"video","subtype":"application/x-mpegURL","external_id":"RW342017092026RP1","title":"The IPO 'of the people' breaks Nigeria's investor platforms","description":"Several Nigerian digital investment platforms suffered outages as retail investors rushed to buy shares in Dangote Petroleum Refinery, highlighting the strain Africa's largest-ever share sale is placing on fintech infrastructure. Nigeria Bureau Chief MacDonald Dzirutwe explains how Nigerians scrambled for a piece of the long awaited IPO.","duration":221.5,"transcript_data":{"transcript":"Bamboo, for example, said that in the first 30 minutes, it had seen 10 times the size of traffic that it usually sees on normal days. 'I believe investing in that group is a lifetime opportunity.' Aliko Dangote, who is the owner of the refinery, has dubbed this the IPO of the people. Because he says he's targeting ordinary Nigerians and Africans across the continent. So with the U.S. $4, one can actually buy, you know, subscribe and buy, you know to the Dangote shares. One of the major reasons why people are buying into this hype or into this IPO is obviously the personality of you know Aliko Dangote he's you know africa's richest man he's one of africa's foremost industrialist and you know he pulled you know this construction of the refinery, which cost $20 billion. You know, when there had been a lot of skepticism whether this was going you know to work or not. So you know many People feel that they want to be part of you know the journey that Aliko Dangote is traveling. The second thing obviously is because especially here in Nigeria you know refineries have always been something that has been the preserve of the government. But this is the first such mega-refinery which is in the hands of the private sector. So many people do want to have a share of the cake. So what this did was that it did put a strain on the investment platforms where people were going to, you know, sign up and subscribe. Some of them, some of the platforms like Bamboo, Cowrywise, InvestNaija they actually crashed. And you know many people could not log in or you know buy the shares 'I'll be investing in it also personally because I feel like this is a chance for me to grow as a person and to explore and experience new things too.' From anecdotal evidence we understand that they are in their hundreds of thousands of people who have already subscribed. The IPO seeks to raise the equivalent of $1.6 billion US dollars, which is like, you know, the largest share sale in Africa to date. Dangote has said that it would be able to pay dividends either in the local Naira currency or in the US dollar currency. I think one has to remember that Nigeria has had a recent history of high inflation and currency depreciation where people actually lost their savings. So people see this, you know investment in the IPO as a hedge against either currency swings or high inflation. Regulators have sort of issued a note of caution to would-be investors, especially first-time investors, to say they have to be extremely careful. By using only approved channels, investment channels whether they are banks, digital platforms, or mobile apps. And that is because Nigeria has a history of online scams. They use WhatsApp to phish. They use emails. Obviously, we haven't heard yet any stories of people being scammed, but this is obviously at the back of the minds of regulators and all these platforms that are selling the shares."},"published_time":"2026-09-17T15:50:34Z","updated_time":"2026-09-17T15:51:10Z","thumbnail":{"url":"https://ajo.prod.reuters.tv/api/v2/img/6aac0b66e4b019e07971ea01-1789660270074","caption":"Several Nigerian digital investment platforms suffered outages as retail investors rushed to buy shares in Dangote Petroleum Refinery, highlighting the strain Africa's largest-ever share sale is placing on fintech infrastructure. Nigeria Bureau Chief MacDonald Dzirutwe explains how Nigerians scrambled for a piece of the long awaited IPO.","type":"image","resizer_url":"https://ajo.prod.reuters.tv/api/v2/img/6aac0b66e4b019e07971ea01-1789660270074"},"source":{"hls":"https://ajo.prod.reuters.tv/v3/playlist/788236/master.m3u8"},"channels":[{"id":"Markets","name":"Markets","regions":["US"]},{"id":"Global_Energy","name":"Energy","regions":["US"]},{"id":"ddb1146e24bce17df8d8d6953a8677a248c026bc","name":"Africa","regions":["US"]},{"id":"HPUS","name":"RCOM Homepage US","regions":["US"]},{"id":"6ffc0233e09c26943b265ef3abd575b2d872818b","name":"Business","regions":["US"]}],"advert_info":{"advert_params":[{"key":"adfriendly","value":true}],"advert_zone":"/4735792/reuters.com/business/energy"},"meta_data":[{"key":"upstream-description","value":"Several Nigerian digital investment platforms suffered outages as retail investors rushed to buy shares in Dangote Petroleum Refinery, highlighting the strain Africa's largest-ever share sale is placing on fintech infrastructure. Nigeria Bureau Chief MacDonald Dzirutwe explains how Nigerians scrambled for a piece of the long awaited IPO."},{"key":"copyright","value":"(c) 2026 Thomson Reuters, unless otherwise identified. Full statement available at https://www.thomsonreuters.com/en/policies/copyright.html"},{"key":"package-no-social","value":"Yes"},{"key":"hidden","value":"false"},{"key":"dateline","value":"Reuters, Reuters, SEP 17"},{"key":"package-restrictions","value":"Broadcast: None. Digital: None.. For Reuters customers only."},{"key":"package-mood","value":"Neutral"},{"key":"link","value":"tag:reuters.com,2026:newsml_RW342017092026RP1:4"},{"key":"upstream-channel-code","value":"vty454,hml568"},{"key":"upstream-title","value":"The IPO 'of the people' breaks Nigeria's investor platforms"},{"key":"external-asset-id","value":"285_RW342017092026RP1"},{"key":"lmp-feed","value":"lp"},{"key":"package-notes","value":"Nigeria, Dangote, Investing, IPO, Oil, Markets, Digital markets"},{"key":"publisher-name","value":"reuters.com"},{"key":"package-format","value":"Other"},{"key":"region","value":"Remote"},{"key":"byline","value":"VARIOUS"}],"usn":"RW342017092026RP1"},{"id":"RW296215092026RP1","type":"video","subtype":"application/x-mpegURL","external_id":"RW296215092026RP1","title":"How the oil pain may worsen","description":"Brent is soaring above $100 a barrel but the wider economy and private sector are looking surprisingly resilient. In this Viewsroom debate, Breakingviews columnists discuss whether the calm can hold and why this oil shock may be different.","duration":1202.6,"transcript_data":{"transcript":"The views expressed on this podcast are those of the participants, not of Reuters News. This week has been rather painful for the oil market. Brent is now soaring around $110 a barrel, As we record on Tuesday afternoon, London time. And investors are fretting about the damage done to Saudi pipelines that were intended as a workaround for attacks in the Strait of Hormuz. Negotiations between US President Donald Trump and Iran have fallen apart. And there is little hope of this situation finding calmer waters. With such instability, it begs the question: are we headed for a real oil squeeze? Rising prices, renewed concern about supply shortages, especially in the northern hemisphere as we head into winter. But we've been here before. We have had dire warnings about shortages and soaring prices, Which did not materialize. So this is the focus of our debate today. What does this all mean? You're very welcome to the ViewsRoom. I'm Aimee Donnellan and I'm Jonathan Guilford, and this is The Views Room, your weekly look at the biggest stories in economics, corporate finance, and business. And, Aimee, I mean, it feels like we're seeing some early signs of, oh, could this actually be the big one? I know there's this guy who tracks gas prices across – gas in the American sense – prices across the United States. So, petrol for our European listeners. Petrol for the international audience. Um and there were petrol stations where i think they hit like their limiter of like they couldn't go above like nine dollars and 99 cents uh for a gallon um and so like they were just like pegged up at that you've had diesel prices really soaring which has all of these knock-on effects on Absolutely! shipping and trucking and that's the kind of stuff that gets really worrying right like that's the stuff that feeds through to like once you really affect shipping that those costs begin to spiral through the rest of the economy. That's exactly it. I was actually even looking at some of the consumer goods groups. So the Crafts or the Nestle's or the Unilevers of the world that really rely on the commodity prices staying low, which, you know, gas prices and oil prices do impact those. But also, If you have an inflationary situation, demand starts to be impacted, right? So, as you said, If you're going to that gas or petrol station, you're paying a lot more than you were paying before, you might go to the grocery store and go, do I need all of these things that I thought that I needed? Actually, no, I can trade down a little bit and kind of cut the bill that way. So, yes, Jon I think we should probably bring in our guests two people who have been looking at this from different angles. So we have our oil watcher, Yawen Chen, who is based in London. for Breakingviews. And we have Jon Sindreu, who is the global economics editor at Breaking Views, also based in London. So, Jon, Yawen, you are very welcome um yeah and so as jonathan said and we kind of i think it's important to say that We have been in the situation, even with Brent where it is today. We have been here relatively recently again, where people were saying, 'Oh my gosh, we're headed for a big oil squeeze.' Why do you think that it might be different this time or do you think it might be different this time And that's a really good question There are a lot of deja vu moments in the past few months. I think let's go back to, you know, at the start of the crisis where everybody was just panicking. Oh, suddenly, you know, you have potentially 20 million barrels a day of oil and crude oil and refining products lost. And then you discover that, oh, there's all these bypasses, right? The pipelines from, especially for Saudi Arabia, they have, so you can load your crew at the Yanbu port and then the ships can go either south or northbound to the Asian customers. And that at full utilization is about 7 million barrels a day. Um so that's become a pretty effective bypass and you've got another maybe two three million barrels a day for the uae pipeline as well um and then at the same time you got china buying less um and then countries like iraq they are very desperate to get their oil out so they they even hired tankers to take extra risk and go through, hormuz, all these dark fleets. Um, and then the U.S. Navy helped. So there's all this, like, I guess, bypass or, like, surprise pathways for the oil to get out of the Strait of Hormuz or alternatives. But now you're back to a situation where there is clearly a political deadlock. There is this window before the U.S. midterms where Iran realizes you can impose maximum pressure, the drones are relatively cheap and available, and the Houthis, I mean, admittedly, when the Red Sea had a crisis with the Houthis, And we had a ceasefire between the Houthis and the U.S. up until maybe July this year. They were seen as kind of quiet, not really active. So the possibility of them coming back was considered, but then quickly dismissed. And now they're back in the picture, apparently bombing the tankers and their refineries with the help of drones. And really without much pushback from the Southeast side as far as we can see So This is what I wonder, right Because aren't you beginning to see, you're seeing like political coalitions fracture in terms of like between Saudi and Pakistan and all this other stuff, Right? Like it feels like there isn't like a super cohesive political coalition, especially with like UAE separating off from all this and whatnot. Like there isn't a super cohesive political coalition to try and bypass or restabilize the Strait of Hormuz And I think as you were Saying, right, there's just a lot of pressure to make this situation as painful as possible in the immediate, immediate time, right? Yeah, and I think eventually you have to have U.S. intervention. And apparently that's what, for example, the Saudis have asked the U.S. for help. But it seems like they've got a resounding no, and they're just caught in between. And I guess the next question is if your pipeline volume now I think has been reduced from 7 million barrels a day to about 4, maybe between 3 and 4, And if that's lost in the next few months what's going to happen to that because you can't really have a bypass to the pipeline right like that's everybody's trying to rush to build more but it's not going to be done in such a short period of time. But should we kind of see this, though, Yawen, as like a short term, as you said, this is like max pressure, right, that Iran can put on US President Donald Trump in the lead up to the midterms, which are in November. So there is, like, a window, right, for how much you can, kind of, Really ratchet up oil prices and gas prices in the states. And as you said, how much does Iran have to play with in terms of after that? Do you think that there is, as we kind of, I guess, Are questioning here or debating here is this the oil squeeze that we were kind of all hoping to avoid? Yeah, it's kind of hard to estimate, But you can kind of guess like, oh, they're oil on the water. So, the current shock from the pipelines, for example, Might take another four weeks to play out because they are still arriving in Asia. Right now it's not being loaded, Yanbu, And that takes some time to play out And then you have to recalculate your inventory. And maybe if price can incentivize alternative barrels or additional barrels from elsewhere, like maybe Russia, you can have a bit of vocution. So it's really a moving picture. But I think in the meantime, if the markets start to pricing in a higher political premium, political risk premium, the Iranians and the Houthis just have to keep doing what they're doing with the drones. Plus, there's a bit more Chinese buying currently, and that could be seasonal. I mean, that's an interesting idea, right? Because that's like a triple lock of pressure. So you have, If you do actually have like Chinese buyers coming back into the market, you have like this lag effect, which is over the next few weeks, you're going to see today's disruptions feed through the system. And then also there's some, maybe more durable, political risk premium, like you're Saying, kind of put into the oil prices, just like that feels like a lot of stuff that's beginning to compound. And I'm just curious, Jon, I want to bring you in here because it feels like we're in a slightly different context now versus the last time around, right? Like banks, central banks are A bit more on the front foot in terms of, we've already seen, like, ECP heading into a policy-tightening cycle. I think, you know, you have Kevin Warsh, the head of the Fed over in the United States, beginning to sound like a bit more hawkish TBD on like the degree to which that Actually leads to anything. But like, I just kind of wondered, like, what bind does that put governments and central banks in this time around? Or are they better equipped? I mean, look, we live in a nihilistic economy, right? Nothing matters. All of these things happen Nothing matters. Like, you look at GDP growth, it's predicted 2.9% globally this year, 3.1% the next. Even, you know, even in the eurozone, we are scheduled for growth of almost one percent, even though, you know, we're seeing natural gas prices rise a lot. And this I mean, not as much as we did a few years ago. But, and nothing seems to knock the global economy, of course. You could say, well, inflation is out of control. It's above three percent. Right But if you look at core inflation, right, you strip out the actual energy component of these prices. The price pressures are not broadening out. You don't, core inflation has been very well behaved, wages not really spiraling at all. So, you know, actually the story here is rather that the economy is not doing what the central banks would have expected it to do under these circumstances. I mean, you can just go back to the ECB's three scenarios that they came up with last March, where they had like the mild scenario, right, for the economy. They had the adverse scenario and they had the worst severe scenario and they predicted both where they expected the oil and gas prices to be and what they expected the economy to do. Well, what you see is we are heading, if the trajectory is correct, towards somewhere between their adverse and severe scenarios in terms of the energy shock. In terms of the economic fallout, everything's great. Right. So the irony here, of course, to your point, Jonathan, is this kind of gives them license to tighten with no problem. And if you look at how the market is pricing in monetary policy from now on, you're starting to see not just three rate hikes for the next year, even like potentially four, which seems extremely surprising. And this is across the board. Like, we're talking BOJ, ECB, the Bank of England, the Fed. So that's what's going on here. Basically, the economy can take it and thus interest rates seem to be going up a lot to try and prevent an inflationary spiral that's not actually happening. Right, so Jon is on the team We are going to see action, but ultimately nothing matters. Yawen, it sounds like maybe you have a more immediate, materialist kind of view of this, let's call it. Like, it sounds like you are maybe a little less sanguine about, like, how this is actually going to feed through. Like, and again, it's like that kind of, like, China-buying and, like, political-pressure pieces. I'm interested in it because those feel different this time, right? Yeah, but actually to add that point about the resilience of the economy, I do hear from, you know, various mining companies, for example, like their fuel costs have gone up a lot, right, in proportion with how much oil prices rise in. But they all say, oh, we have been able to pass it on to customers. So it's not a problem. I think in some of their economic models, because one of their biggest fears is eventually you can't pass on the cost forever. There will be a recession. But most of their models say if oil prices stay at around 90, it's no problem at all. Now we're facing 110 but.. Can we play this out a bit, okay Jon, we get four rate rises Is that what you're saying We get four rate rises from ECB. We have oil at $110 a barrel, Which then I would imagine starts to feed through to higher prices of food and all sorts of other things, Maybe not immediately. Then let's bring in some of Yawen's points. We had a situation where China was not buying as much oil, right? Which I would imagine will shift as winter kind of comes about. And that will probably be the case for many countries, right? Demand will increase just as the prices are very high. So is this situation we find ourselves in very brief that everyone can handle what's happening? Look, look, I don't want it to say that, you know, nothing matters and, you know, the economy requires no comment because, I mean, I could lay myself off right here, right? Sorry. Let me roll back the transcript I believe it was. I believe it was Jon Sindreu who said we're in the nihilism economy. Yeah. The global economics editor says the economy does not matter. But what I do think is true is that the economic shock or economic shocks in Peril don't seem to matter a lot, right? I think we need to think about the fact that after 2008, we went through this huge, long period of deleveraging, both at the level of corporates and households. Something else people don't think about, these massive budget deficits that we've been seeing for years, these are all good for the private sector, right? Right. What the money injected from the public sector goes straight into fixing private sector finances. So I think this has all generated this resiliency of the private balance sheet that seems to be able to take anything. But to Aimee's point, is this forever? Well, I don't think it's forever. I think you do see a slow, gradual deterioration because, I mean, there's just no other way to absorb this. Right. Like somebody is absorbing it, especially if we don't see the trajectory of garment deficits as going wider, which I don't think we do. Even if we don't get austerity, I don't think we can see more fiscal expansion. And thus, you know, it might be a grinding process, but I do think that there will be some consequence. Now, here, the question is, well, if you if you think that scenario that I'm, you know, painting here is true, should you raise interest rates? I think you should do the opposite right you should just think about the fact that well interest rates don't do much right so what am I doing with them and however by pushing up the price of mortgages even a bit further by depressing you know say construction of residential units Which is something monetary policy very much does and we've seen all across the world you will increase further the price of rent in the future right so you should actually be a bit more careful with what you're doing, because I do think that ultimately, even if the economy can absorb the Shock, that means that rather than raising interest rates, you should be lowering them to cushion the more subtle damage that all of this is starting to do. Also, I wonder if there's a divide between the more developed economies, Europe, the US, and then you've got the developing countries where prices kind of led to demand destruction much more. And that's why you probably don't feel the kind of, how do you put this, like it just kind of filters through to like nobody's using that. That's why prices have not gone up as much as people expected. Yeah, that's very much worth pointing out, yeah. EM takes the hit, and also they're forced into more contractionary policies than we are here to deal with it as well. Right. And I do wonder, like, so if we're talking about a time limited thing, right. So I think, as Aimee mentioned, there's the seasonal issues that a lot of buyers are going to be contending with. EM is going to be contracting like pretty severely for a bit to try and like, you know, that will take off some of the edge of the demand side at huge human cost, obviously. And then we have, you know, maybe we get to the other side of the midterm elections, Political capitalists in the U.S. changes. Like, is there a way that the U.S.-Iran standoff can be brought to some kind of head? Because it just feels like right now, what we're heading towards is just this permanent Stasis or just like endless, endless standoff. Because like, it's not really clear that like the Iranian side or the U.S. side, like whatever happens with the elections, it's like feeling existential enough pain to end it. Is that, like, too cynical of you? Do you think you're in Yawen I think it's probably a decision by choice, right? Because, I mean, a few months ago, there was speculation that the U.S. can just declare victory and, I mean, Trump can declare victory and just walk away and leave the mess to geographies that's much closer to the physical reality of things as the U.S. is really far away anyway. But then at this point, it seems more like he needs something, a narrative that gives him more of a leverage during elections. Then that begs the question of when we reach that point, when midterms have come and go, does that mean you can do a major military escalation? Or does your cost of walking away lowers? It has to be one way or the other, right? Like, this is something supposedly can go for much longer if you look at the Iraqi war in the past. But the cost of having a military blockade by the U.S. is pretty high. I mean, Trump has been talking about having the world pay for it later already on truth social. So I assume this just can't go on forever. It seems that way, definitely. And I think we've talked many times about safety valves, right? Yawen, when we've talked about the valves, Like, these were the pipelines. These were the things that could alleviate the oil price. And it just seems like investors are not believing in them as much anymore, Which I think makes sense. Given the pressure that is now on Trump to come to a deal. Well, look, I don't think this issue is going to go anywhere, But a very lively debate. So thank you, Jon and Yawen, for joining us today. Thank you. Thanks. Thanks for tuning in. This podcast was produced by Sheryl Peña in New York and Gregory Garner in Toronto. You can check out a new episode of The Views Room every Thursday. And don't forget to tune in to our sister show, The Big View, every Tuesday, As well as all the other great podcasts from the Reuters team. To get in touch with feedback, questions and ideas Please email us at breakingviews-podcasts@tr.com. That's breakingviews-podcasts@tr.com. if you liked what you heard please rate the show and leave us a review breaking views subscribers get access to all our views on the biggest stories in business and finance as they break every day on breaking views.com or you can always Sample some of our insights at Reuters.com"},"published_time":"2026-09-17T06:32:00Z","updated_time":"2026-09-17T06:32:03Z","thumbnail":{"url":"https://ajo.prod.reuters.tv/api/v2/img/6aab869ce4b019e07971e84f","caption":"Brent is soaring above $100 a barrel but the wider economy and private sector are looking surprisingly resilient. 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For Reuters customers only."},{"key":"package-mood","value":"Neutral"},{"key":"link","value":"tag:reuters.com,2026:newsml_RW296215092026RP1:4"},{"key":"upstream-channel-code","value":"vty454"},{"key":"upstream-title","value":"How the oil pain may worsen"},{"key":"external-asset-id","value":"285_RW296215092026RP1"},{"key":"lmp-feed","value":"lp"},{"key":"package-notes","value":"Breakingviews, BV, Viewsroom, Aimee Donnellan, Jonathan Guilford"},{"key":"publisher-name","value":"reuters.com"},{"key":"package-format","value":"Other"},{"key":"region","value":"Remote"},{"key":"byline","value":"VARIOUS"}],"usn":"RW296215092026RP1"},{"id":"RW258714092026RP1","type":"video","subtype":"application/x-mpegURL","external_id":"RW258714092026RP1","title":"This is the diesel war that Trump wants stopped","description":"U.S. President Donald Trump on Sunday (September 13) called on Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy to stop targeting Russian diesel infrastructure, saying the attacks were causing a shortage of the fuel that is \"hurting the world\". Chief Oil and Gas Correspondent Vladimir Soldatkin explains.","duration":182.46,"transcript_data":{"transcript":"Mr. Zelenskiy has to do one thing, The diesel prices in the United States, they're creeping up and exceeding $6 per gallon, Which is quite hurtful for the population in the United States. And I think it's quite worrisome for Trump, who would like the prices of fuel to go down. Ukraine said, by striking oil refineries, which produce fuel in Russia, they're trying to bring the war back home to the Russian soil. And of course, by doing this, they also undermine the supplies of fuel to the Russian army and undercut Moscow finances. We see that some fuel stations across Russia are shut or they substantially reduced the fuel sales in several cities, including in Moscow at some point. The situation is improving in some regions, but it's still not easy. Of course it's compounding the effect of the Iranian war and Hormuz blockade. One of the effects was that Russia introduced ban on export sales of gasoline or diesel. At least, they restricted certain sale of the fuel to abroad. And Russia used to be second largest seaborne diesel supplier after the States, Mostly supplying it to such countries as Turkey and Brazil and to some African countries as Senegal. Having said that, Russian diesel export had already been low prior to the introduction of the restrictions in early July. So it had not that great impact, the ban itself, but still it's hurtful. There is some impact of course from the strikes and several countries are feeling the pinch, And this month we spoke to officials in neighboring Mongolia and they said that the Russian fuel exports, The price of it has doubled in the past few months so it's quite hurtful for them. There is some suggestions that Ukraine and Russia may reach some kind of agreement of not hitting each other's energy infrastructure. But there's no agreement and as we see the strikes are continuing. They see it as a retaliation, I think, against the Russian strikes, But those strikes are becoming quite intensive and more and more refineries are coming under fire."},"published_time":"2026-09-14T13:53:06Z","updated_time":"2026-09-14T13:53:08Z","thumbnail":{"url":"https://ajo.prod.reuters.tv/api/v2/img/6aa7fbc1e4b01915ce4b1a85","caption":"U.S. President Donald Trump on Sunday (September 13) called on Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy to stop targeting Russian diesel infrastructure, saying the attacks were causing a shortage of the fuel that is \"hurting the world\". Chief Oil and Gas Correspondent Vladimir Soldatkin explains.","type":"image","resizer_url":"https://ajo.prod.reuters.tv/api/v2/img/6aa7fbc1e4b01915ce4b1a85"},"source":{"hls":"https://ajo.prod.reuters.tv/v3/playlist/787914/master.m3u8"},"channels":[{"id":"Global_Energy","name":"Energy","regions":["US"]},{"id":"europe","name":"Europe","regions":["US"]},{"id":"13978","name":"US News","regions":["US"]},{"id":"6ffc0233e09c26943b265ef3abd575b2d872818b","name":"Business","regions":["US"]}],"advert_info":{"advert_params":[{"key":"adfriendly","value":true}],"advert_zone":"/4735792/reuters.com/business/energy"},"meta_data":[{"key":"upstream-description","value":"U.S. President Donald Trump on Sunday (September 13) called on Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy to stop targeting Russian diesel infrastructure, saying the attacks were causing a shortage of the fuel that is \"hurting the world\". 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Reuters energy correspondent Colleen Howe has the story. ","duration":116.33,"transcript_data":{"transcript":"Why is escalating conflict in the Middle East driving oil prices higher again? So the Houthis are an Iran-aligned group in Yemen. They had conducted drone strikes on Saudi Arabia over the weekend. They also are moving to take control of another key oil conduit, the Bab al-Mandeb Strait, which has become sort of an alternative to the Strait of Hormuz. Iran has largely managed to close the Strait of Hormuz. So that's the number one global oil shipping channel since the start of the Iran war. And the East-West oil pipeline in Saudi Arabia has become a way for the Saudis to bypass the Strait of Hormuz, get their oil through the pipeline to their Yanbu port, and then from there, they're able to export it to global markets. So it was closed on Friday because of drone strikes. If it's not reopened within a couple of days, analysts are saying that that could put as much as 4% of global oil supply at risk. There were talks scheduled in Oman for Monday. They appear to have been postponed following the latest strikes. The Omani foreign minister had said that was due to a lack of consensus among the different parties. There have been previous attempts at talks aimed at striking a deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and get oil flowing again. The last one resulted in an interim agreement between the US and Iran in June, but that fell apart after both sides accused one another of violating the terms of that agreement. And from the US side most recently, President Donald Trump said last week that the conflict might end only after the US midterm elections, which are on November 3rd. So that is some pretty different rhetoric from the start of the conflict. When he was saying that the war would be finished in a couple of weeks."},"published_time":"2026-09-14T07:40:58Z","updated_time":"2026-09-14T07:41:00Z","thumbnail":{"url":"https://ajo.prod.reuters.tv/api/v2/img/6aa7a48fe4b01915ce4b1946-1789371646851","caption":"Oil prices jumped more than 2% on Monday (September 14), after new Houthi strikes on Saudi Arabia and Iranian attacks on ships in the Gulf compounded supply concerns following the closure of a key Saudi oil pipeline. Reuters energy correspondent Colleen Howe has the story. ","type":"image","resizer_url":"https://ajo.prod.reuters.tv/api/v2/img/6aa7a48fe4b01915ce4b1946-1789371646851"},"source":{"hls":"https://ajo.prod.reuters.tv/v3/playlist/787889/master.m3u8"},"channels":[{"id":"Global_Energy","name":"Energy","regions":["US"]},{"id":"World_News_US","name":"World News","regions":["US"]},{"id":"HPUS","name":"RCOM Homepage US","regions":["US"]},{"id":"Article-Playlist-Middle-East","name":"Article-Playlist: Middle East","regions":["US"]},{"id":"6ffc0233e09c26943b265ef3abd575b2d872818b","name":"Business","regions":["US"]}],"advert_info":{"advert_params":[{"key":"adfriendly","value":true}],"advert_zone":"/4735792/reuters.com/business/energy"},"meta_data":[{"key":"upstream-description","value":"Oil prices jumped more than 2% on Monday (September 14), after new Houthi strikes on Saudi Arabia and Iranian attacks on ships in the Gulf compounded supply concerns following the closure of a key Saudi oil pipeline. 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Lisa Bernhard reports.","duration":79.4,"transcript_data":{"transcript":"U.S. consumer prices continued to climb higher in August, Reinforcing expectations that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates at its policy meeting next week. The Labor Department's Consumer Price Index, released Friday, increased 0.4% last month, a jump from July's 0.1% gain. That put the annual inflation rate at 3.4%. Soaring gas prices accounted for more than a third of the increase in the August CPI. Oil prices have climbed back above $100 a barrel, with diesel prices at record highs, Suggesting inflation was set to remain elevated and broaden out in the coming months. Grocery prices held steady last month, giving American consumers a pause rather than a reprieve at the supermarket. But strip out those volatile food and energy components, and the so-called core CPI rose 0.3%, the largest increase since April. That was above economists' expectations. Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh has said the central bank may need to act if underlying inflation is not moving sufficiently toward the Fed's 2% goal. Most economists on Friday said the August data does not appear to meet that bar."},"published_time":"2026-09-11T17:21:55Z","updated_time":"2026-09-11T17:21:56Z","thumbnail":{"url":"https://ajo.prod.reuters.tv/api/v2/img/6aa4385fe4b01915ce4b13bb-1789147253557","caption":"U.S. consumer prices accelerated in August, while a key measure of underlying inflation posted its largest increase in four months, reinforcing expectations that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates next week. Lisa Bernhard reports.","type":"image","resizer_url":"https://ajo.prod.reuters.tv/api/v2/img/6aa4385fe4b01915ce4b13bb-1789147253557"},"source":{"hls":"https://ajo.prod.reuters.tv/v3/playlist/787782/master.m3u8"},"channels":[{"id":"Global_Energy","name":"Energy","regions":["US"]},{"id":"HPUS","name":"RCOM Homepage US","regions":["US"]},{"id":"13978","name":"US News","regions":["US"]},{"id":"6ffc0233e09c26943b265ef3abd575b2d872818b","name":"Business","regions":["US"]}],"advert_info":{"advert_params":[{"key":"adfriendly","value":true}],"advert_zone":"/4735792/reuters.com/business/energy"},"meta_data":[{"key":"upstream-description","value":"U.S. consumer prices accelerated in August, while a key measure of underlying inflation posted its largest increase in four months, reinforcing expectations that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates next week. Lisa Bernhard reports."},{"key":"copyright","value":"(c) 2026 Thomson Reuters, unless otherwise identified. 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It's the U.S. giant's first ever foldable smartphone and takes on designs made by Asian rivals Samsung and Huawei. New CEO John Ternus was at the Duo's launch event in California. He believes the Duo can deliver an iPad-like experience in a pocket-sized device. $100 was the price point Brent crude rose above. It was the first time it had jumped above the key threshold since July. Growing attacks along key shipping routes drove fears of continued disruption to supplies. Gulf traffic is still restricted through the Strait of Hormuz while the U.S. Iran conflict drags on. Nearly 10% is how much of its workforce Jaguar Land Rover plans to cut. The British automaker faces growing pressure from tariffs and Chinese competition. JLR said it would cut around 4,000 jobs and aims to make $2.3 billion in savings. The job cuts are a blow for the UK government as it tries to push a slow-growing economy. $18.6 billion is how much Volkswagen estimates the total cost of its job cuts and plant closures to be. The German carmaker is driving forward with its biggest ever restructure. It cites competition from China, tariffs and overcapacity for the move. VW management plans to cut 100,000 jobs, while the future of four German plants is uncertain. And almost $40 million is how much Britain has spent on SpaceX satellite services. It has furthered its reliance on Elon Musk's company for military communications. That's despite growing European concerns about dependence on U.S. security infrastructure. Britain became the first country outside the U.S. to publicly acknowledge adopting Starshield which is SpaceX's service for military and intelligence missions."},"published_time":"2026-09-11T11:23:15Z","updated_time":"2026-09-11T11:23:17Z","thumbnail":{"url":"https://ajo.prod.reuters.tv/api/v2/img/6aa3e405e4b01915ce4b12b5-1789125705321","caption":"From Apple's move into foldable phones to Brent crude prices going up, Francis Maguire rounds up the big markets stories of the week.","type":"image","resizer_url":"https://ajo.prod.reuters.tv/api/v2/img/6aa3e405e4b01915ce4b12b5-1789125705321"},"source":{"hls":"https://ajo.prod.reuters.tv/v3/playlist/787759/master.m3u8"},"channels":[{"id":"week_in_numbers","name":"week_in_numbers","regions":["US"]},{"id":"Global_Energy","name":"Energy","regions":["US"]},{"id":"HPUS","name":"RCOM Homepage US","regions":["US"]},{"id":"d45538fb92ef02a065c15e16d3dd6a297c2ae7d7","name":"Technology","regions":["US"]},{"id":"6ffc0233e09c26943b265ef3abd575b2d872818b","name":"Business","regions":["US"]}],"advert_info":{"advert_params":[{"key":"adfriendly","value":true}],"advert_zone":"/4735792/reuters.com/business/energy"},"meta_data":[{"key":"upstream-description","value":"From Apple's move into foldable phones to Brent crude prices going up, Francis Maguire rounds up the big markets stories of the week."},{"key":"copyright","value":"(c) 2026 Thomson Reuters, unless otherwise identified. 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Reuters Asia Commodities & Energy Editor Tony Munroe has the details.","duration":94.43,"transcript_data":{"transcript":"What does the Houthi advance mean for shipping and for energy markets? If you look at a map of the region, to the east of the Arabian Peninsula is the Strait of Hormuz, which which we all know about. Now, to the west is the Red Sea. And at the bottom of the Red sea is Bab el-Mandeb, which is a narrow strait. And it is another key chokepoint, potentially for shipping, of oil in particular, and oil products from the Middle East. The Red Sea has been a key alternative route for shipping of Saudi oil to world markets. And what Saudi Arabia has been doing has been sending oil west through, pipeline to Yanbu on the Red sea and then shipping that oil either south, through the Red Sea and Bab el-Mandeb, or north, through Suez and a pipeline that that runs along the Suez Canal. So shipping oil south through the Red sea is now imperiled, if the Houthis are in control of that chokepoint. So this week we saw oil rise to $100 a barrel for the first time since July. And in the last two days, it has really surged. This morning in Asia time, it's up over $108 a barrel. That's Brent crude. So that's a significant rise this week. Shipping through the Strait of Hormuz is dwindling. Yesterday, we were able to see only eight commodities vessels transiting. And this comes as we've seen a real intensification of attacks on shipping, by U.S. and Iranian forces."},"published_time":"2026-09-11T07:47:33Z","updated_time":"2026-09-11T07:47:35Z","thumbnail":{"url":"https://ajo.prod.reuters.tv/api/v2/img/6aa3b19de4b01915ce4b1170-1789112843798","caption":"Iran-aligned Houthis seized control of Yemen's port city of Mocha on Thursday (September 10) and advanced down the Red Sea coast to strategic islands, raising concern regarding their leverage over the Bab el-Mandeb Strait - another vital artery for oil shipments. Reuters Asia Commodities & Energy Editor Tony Munroe has the details.","type":"image","resizer_url":"https://ajo.prod.reuters.tv/api/v2/img/6aa3b19de4b01915ce4b1170-1789112843798"},"source":{"hls":"https://ajo.prod.reuters.tv/v3/playlist/787742/master.m3u8"},"channels":[{"id":"Global_Energy","name":"Energy","regions":["US"]},{"id":"World_News_US","name":"World News","regions":["US"]},{"id":"HPUS","name":"RCOM Homepage US","regions":["US"]},{"id":"Article-Playlist-Middle-East","name":"Article-Playlist: Middle East","regions":["US"]},{"id":"6ffc0233e09c26943b265ef3abd575b2d872818b","name":"Business","regions":["US"]}],"advert_info":{"advert_params":[{"key":"adfriendly","value":true}],"advert_zone":"/4735792/reuters.com/business/energy"},"meta_data":[{"key":"upstream-description","value":"Iran-aligned Houthis seized control of Yemen's port city of Mocha on Thursday (September 10) and advanced down the Red Sea coast to strategic islands, raising concern regarding their leverage over the Bab el-Mandeb Strait - another vital artery for oil shipments. 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Reuters' Asia Commodities and Energy Editor Tony Munroe has more.","duration":67.93,"transcript_data":{"transcript":"Benchmark Brent crude oil futures have risen above the psychologically significant $100 per barrel level for the first time since late July. This comes as intensifying conflict in the Middle East fuels growing market concerns about oil flows from the region. Brent crude prices have risen by about a quarter over the past month as hopes fade for a permanent resolution to this six-month-old US-Iran crisis. This week, attacks by Iran-backed Houthis on Saudi energy infrastructure set facilities ablaze, threatening significant expansion of the conflict. Houthi attacks could also imperil oil shipping via the Red Sea, which has been a key alternative outlet to the Strait of Hormuz, where oil shipments have been severely curtailed since the start of the war in late February. In recent days, we've also seen that shipments via Hormuz have also declined. While non-OPEC producers, including the United States, have increased their oil output, the International Energy Agency said last month that it expects global oil production to decline about 4% this year."},"published_time":"2026-09-09T08:21:54Z","updated_time":"2026-09-09T08:43:59Z","thumbnail":{"url":"https://ajo.prod.reuters.tv/api/v2/img/6aa116a9e4b01915ce4b0a11-1788943385964","caption":"Benchmark Brent crude oil futures rose past $100 a barrel on Wednesday, breaching the symbolic barrier for the first time since July 24 as intensifying conflict in the Middle East fueled growing concern about oil flows from the region. Reuters' Asia Commodities and Energy Editor Tony Munroe has more.","type":"image","resizer_url":"https://ajo.prod.reuters.tv/api/v2/img/6aa116a9e4b01915ce4b0a11-1788943385964"},"source":{"hls":"https://ajo.prod.reuters.tv/v3/playlist/787532/master.m3u8"},"channels":[{"id":"Global_Energy","name":"Energy","regions":["US"]},{"id":"World_News_US","name":"World News","regions":["US"]},{"id":"HPUS","name":"RCOM Homepage US","regions":["US"]},{"id":"13978","name":"US News","regions":["US"]},{"id":"6ffc0233e09c26943b265ef3abd575b2d872818b","name":"Business","regions":["US"]}],"advert_info":{"advert_params":[{"key":"adfriendly","value":true}],"advert_zone":"/4735792/reuters.com/business/energy"},"meta_data":[{"key":"upstream-description","value":"Benchmark Brent crude oil futures rose past $100 a barrel on Wednesday, breaching the symbolic barrier for the first time since July 24 as intensifying conflict in the Middle East fueled growing concern about oil flows from the region. 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For Reuters customers only."},{"key":"package-mood","value":"Neutral"},{"key":"link","value":"tag:reuters.com,2026:newsml_RW136209092026RP1:9"},{"key":"upstream-channel-code","value":"hml568"},{"key":"upstream-title","value":"Brent crude rises above $100 as Mideast conflict escalates"},{"key":"external-asset-id","value":"285_RW136209092026RP1"},{"key":"lmp-feed","value":"lp"},{"key":"package-notes","value":"Iran, Global, Oil Prices, $100, Attack, Barrel, Brent Crude Oil, Houthis, US, OPEC"},{"key":"publisher-name","value":"reuters.com"},{"key":"package-format","value":"Other"},{"key":"region","value":"Remote"},{"key":"byline","value":"Various"}],"usn":"RW136209092026RP1"},{"id":"RW105508092026RP1","type":"video","subtype":"application/x-mpegURL","external_id":"RW105508092026RP1","title":"Why isn't oil above $100 despite supply disruptions?","description":"Global oil benchmark Brent crude has rallied this month but stayed below $100 a barrel despite recent escalation in the U.S.-Iran conflict that has disrupted Gulf exports from the Strait of Hormuz and the Red Sea. Julian Satterthwaite takes a look, with help from Reuters Asia Commodities & Energy Editor Tony Munroe. ","duration":132,"transcript_data":{"transcript":"Oil prices are rising as tensions mount once again in the Middle East. But as Iran and the U.S. exchange attacks, some wonder why the conflict isn't driving a much bigger increase. While international benchmark Brent crude is up around 9% this month, it hasn't broken through the $100 per barrel level. That's far below the highs of about $120 seen earlier in the year. Reuters Asia Commodities and Energy Editor Tony Munroe says the volume of oil shipped hasn't totally dried up: 'In terms of crude oil, estimates vary. But according to one from Argus, about 11 million barrels per day of oil are being shipped out of the Middle East. Some of that is across the Strait of Hormuz. Some of it is through pipelines or via the Red Sea. And that compares with about 18 million barrels per day before the conflict began.' Some exporters in the Gulf have taken steps to fill any shortfall in supplies. Shipments from Iraq have jumped, while Kuwaiti exports are also up. Producers outside the region have also stepped in. Industry experts says increased production in the U.S., Canada and Guyana will help fill gaps in supply. Softer demand has also put a cap on prices. Much of that is down to China - the world's top oil importer. It has cut consumption thanks to factors including the increasing use of electric vehicles. But price pressures may now be starting to mount, with factors including signs of a major shortage of diesel. Munroe says banks have taken note: 'Prices have been moving steadily higher in recent days. Brent, the benchmark, is above $97 per barrel today. And in the last few days, we've seen an increasing number of analysts increase their forecasts for the price per barrel going forward.' Analysts at Morgan Stanley now expect Brent to average $100 per barrel in the fourth quarter. Goldman Sachs has also raised its forecast, saying the disruption to shipping in the Strait of Hormuz looks likely to last into next year."},"published_time":"2026-09-08T09:31:05Z","updated_time":"2026-09-08T09:31:06Z","thumbnail":{"url":"https://ajo.prod.reuters.tv/api/v2/img/6a9fd54be4b0d4bfbde1fd5d","caption":"Global oil benchmark Brent crude has rallied this month but stayed below $100 a barrel despite recent escalation in the U.S.-Iran conflict that has disrupted Gulf exports from the Strait of Hormuz and the Red Sea. Julian Satterthwaite takes a look, with help from Reuters Asia Commodities & Energy Editor Tony Munroe. ","type":"image","resizer_url":"https://ajo.prod.reuters.tv/api/v2/img/6a9fd54be4b0d4bfbde1fd5d"},"source":{"hls":"https://ajo.prod.reuters.tv/v3/playlist/787455/master.m3u8"},"channels":[{"id":"Explainers","name":"Explainers","regions":["US"]},{"id":"Global_Energy","name":"Energy","regions":["US"]},{"id":"HPUS","name":"RCOM Homepage US","regions":["US"]},{"id":"Article-Playlist-Middle-East","name":"Article-Playlist: Middle East","regions":["US"]},{"id":"6ffc0233e09c26943b265ef3abd575b2d872818b","name":"Business","regions":["US"]}],"advert_info":{"advert_params":[{"key":"adfriendly","value":true}],"advert_zone":"/4735792/reuters.com/business/energy"},"meta_data":[{"key":"upstream-description","value":"Global oil benchmark Brent crude has rallied this month but stayed below $100 a barrel despite recent escalation in the U.S.-Iran conflict that has disrupted Gulf exports from the Strait of Hormuz and the Red Sea. 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For Reuters customers only."},{"key":"package-mood","value":"Neutral"},{"key":"link","value":"tag:reuters.com,2026:newsml_RW105508092026RP1:2"},{"key":"upstream-channel-code","value":"vty454,hml568"},{"key":"upstream-title","value":"Why isn't oil above $100 despite supply disruptions?"},{"key":"external-asset-id","value":"285_RW105508092026RP1"},{"key":"lmp-feed","value":"lp"},{"key":"package-notes","value":"Oil, U.S., Iran, War, Crude, Brent, Conflict, Futures"},{"key":"publisher-name","value":"reuters.com"},{"key":"package-format","value":"Other"},{"key":"region","value":"Remote"},{"key":"byline","value":"VARIOUS"}],"usn":"RW105508092026RP1"},{"id":"RW056505092026RP1","type":"video","subtype":"application/x-mpegURL","external_id":"RW056505092026RP1","title":"Americans hit with record-high Labor Day Weekend gas prices","description":"With the war in the Middle East still raising energy costs, Americans face record-high gasoline prices for Labor Day weekend. This report produced by Jillian Kitchener.","duration":100.96,"transcript_data":{"transcript":"Americans looking to drive to and fro this Labor Day weekend are getting slapped with record-high gas prices. The national average price is expected to rise above $4 on Labor Day, analysts say, far surpassing the previous record of $3.83 per gallon in 2012. People filling up in Los Angeles told Reuters it's not just impacting their weekend, but their lives. 'I'm not going to be able to probably drive around too much more for the rest of the week and Labor Day weekend' 'It's disappointing' 'Because I mean a lot of people are you know trying to just do their daily business and this is a big factor. Now,' 'Not that it wasn't before but a dollar or a dollar fifty since the war started, it's a big deal.' 'It's a big deal.' 'Deciding to buy gas or food you know.' Prices at the pump have risen alongside crude oil prices, Which this week jumped back over $90 a barrel after renewed military action between the U.S. and Iran revived concerns about disruptions to global crude Supplies. President Trump recently said Americans should be willing to pay 'A tiny little bit more' For gasoline to ensure Iran does not obtain a nuclear weapon. 'I'll never apologize. I did the right thing.' But drivers say prices have not risen by, 'a tiny little bit' 'I have not actually noticed it this high before, so this is the first.' 'I don't fill up very often, and when I do, I know.' 't's going to be a lot.' 'Definitely makes it a lot harder to get by.' California, Hawaii and Washington currently have the nation's highest average gasoline prices."},"published_time":"2026-09-05T17:38:20Z","updated_time":"2026-09-05T17:38:21Z","thumbnail":{"url":"https://ajo.prod.reuters.tv/api/v2/img/6a9c52f6e4b0d4bfbde1f8f3-1788629866909","caption":"With the war in the Middle East still raising energy costs, Americans face record-high gasoline prices for Labor Day weekend. This report produced by Jillian Kitchener.","type":"image","resizer_url":"https://ajo.prod.reuters.tv/api/v2/img/6a9c52f6e4b0d4bfbde1f8f3-1788629866909"},"source":{"hls":"https://ajo.prod.reuters.tv/v3/playlist/787276/master.m3u8"},"channels":[{"id":"Global_Energy","name":"Energy","regions":["US"]},{"id":"HPUS","name":"RCOM Homepage US","regions":["US"]},{"id":"13978","name":"US News","regions":["US"]}],"advert_info":{"advert_params":[{"key":"adfriendly","value":true}],"advert_zone":"/4735792/reuters.com/business/energy"},"meta_data":[{"key":"upstream-description","value":"With the war in the Middle East still raising energy costs, Americans face record-high gasoline prices for Labor Day weekend. This report produced by Jillian Kitchener."},{"key":"copyright","value":"(c) 2026 Thomson Reuters, unless otherwise identified. 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Across the country, as Democrats ride a wave of local opposition to data centers ahead of the November elections, Republicans are increasingly breaking from U.S. President Donald Trump’s pro-AI agenda. Dawn Kopecki reports.","duration":140.53,"transcript_data":{"transcript":"What politicians and consumers are increasingly realizing is that data centers don't bring a lot of jobs to a local community. I think that this shift is notable because it is, it is both because of campaign season. But you're also seeing a critical mass of consumers really complaining about this. Homeowners, local businesses seeing their electric bills and water bills go up because of data centers that were built in their hometowns or data centers that are coming, that they're worried about the effects of them. And in Texas, where Paxton and Abbott, the governor, have said they've, they're taking a, a new look at it. You're seeing both that this is affecting them in the polls and the election, but also you're seeing more education in general about the issue and more, more reasons why Republicans may not fully embrace this like they, like they had been. It's concerning to many in the administration who want to see America beat China in the AI race. So you have this balance where politicians are trying to figure out how to strike the balance between, um, between ensuring that America is competitive and, and addressing the concerns of consumers. This is a sea change for big tech. It's a wake-up call to that industry, and you're seeing not just socialist Democrats. I mean, you're seeing Greg Abbott in Texas, the, the Texas Republican governor, very conservative governor, and his views on data centers are more in line with Bernie Sanders and AOC than they are with Trump and the White House And so you're seeing a sea change for this industry where they're going to have to pause. They're going to have to take a look. They're going to have to spend more resources, not just in lobbying politicians, but in actually giving money back to communities."},"published_time":"2026-09-04T07:47:21Z","updated_time":"2026-09-04T07:47:23Z","thumbnail":{"url":"https://ajo.prod.reuters.tv/api/v2/img/6a9a76f8e4b08e2aff529a4e-1788508036703","caption":"Less than a year ago, Texas Governor Greg Abbott hailed Texas as the \"epicenter of AI development.\" Now, in his bid for re-election, he is calling for sweeping new restrictions on data centers. Across the country, as Democrats ride a wave of local opposition to data centers ahead of the November elections, Republicans are increasingly breaking from U.S. President Donald Trump’s pro-AI agenda. Dawn Kopecki reports.","type":"image","resizer_url":"https://ajo.prod.reuters.tv/api/v2/img/6a9a76f8e4b08e2aff529a4e-1788508036703"},"source":{"hls":"https://ajo.prod.reuters.tv/v3/playlist/787178/master.m3u8"},"channels":[{"id":"Global_Energy","name":"Energy","regions":["US"]},{"id":"World_News_US","name":"World News","regions":["US"]},{"id":"HPUS","name":"RCOM Homepage US","regions":["US"]},{"id":"13978","name":"US News","regions":["US"]},{"id":"6ffc0233e09c26943b265ef3abd575b2d872818b","name":"Business","regions":["US"]}],"advert_info":{"advert_params":[{"key":"adfriendly","value":true}],"advert_zone":"/4735792/reuters.com/business/energy"},"meta_data":[{"key":"upstream-description","value":"Less than a year ago, Texas Governor Greg Abbott hailed Texas as the \"epicenter of AI development.\" Now, in his bid for re-election, he is calling for sweeping new restrictions on data centers. Across the country, as Democrats ride a wave of local opposition to data centers ahead of the November elections, Republicans are increasingly breaking from U.S. President Donald Trump’s pro-AI agenda. Dawn Kopecki reports."},{"key":"copyright","value":"(c) 2026 Thomson Reuters, unless otherwise identified. Full statement available at https://www.thomsonreuters.com/en/policies/copyright.html"},{"key":"package-no-social","value":"Yes"},{"key":"hidden","value":"false"},{"key":"dateline","value":"Reuters, Reuters, SEP 04"},{"key":"package-restrictions","value":"Broadcast: None. Digital: None.. 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We're all making it work. We are struggling, but we are making it work. I've already got rid of one car. I knew it was coming. I sold it, I took that money, and I put it in the bank. So I'm dug in. I'm not giving in. The little guy's been taking hits and I don't know what we all did wrong to make everybody hate us so much."},"published_time":"2026-09-03T10:09:16Z","updated_time":"2026-09-03T10:09:16Z","thumbnail":{"url":"https://ajo.prod.reuters.tv/api/v2/img/6a9946dde4b08e2aff529845-1788430156148","caption":"Workers locked out of BP’s Whiting, Indiana refinery since March describe the financial and emotional strain of the contract standoff, while BP says its position is aimed at keeping the refinery competitive.","type":"image","resizer_url":"https://ajo.prod.reuters.tv/api/v2/img/6a9946dde4b08e2aff529845-1788430156148"},"source":{"hls":"https://ajo.prod.reuters.tv/v3/playlist/787092/master.m3u8"},"channels":[{"id":"Global_Energy","name":"Energy","regions":["US"]},{"id":"HPUS","name":"RCOM Homepage US","regions":["US"]},{"id":"13978","name":"US News","regions":["US"]},{"id":"6ffc0233e09c26943b265ef3abd575b2d872818b","name":"Business","regions":["US"]}],"advert_info":{"advert_params":[{"key":"adfriendly","value":true}],"advert_zone":"/4735792/reuters.com/business/energy"},"meta_data":[{"key":"upstream-description","value":"Workers locked out of BP’s Whiting, Indiana refinery since March describe the financial and emotional strain of the contract standoff, while BP says its position is aimed at keeping the refinery competitive."},{"key":"copyright","value":"(c) 2026 Thomson Reuters, unless otherwise identified. 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Ryanair sends jet fuel crisis warning","description":"Europe's biggest budget airline Ryanair cut its fiscal 2027 traffic target and warned high oil prices could be a survival test for some rivals. European Airlines and Travel Correspondent Joanna Plucinska has more.","duration":136,"transcript_data":{"transcript":"Ryanair basically said that it's going to fly 214 million passengers instead of its earlier projection of 216 million passengers, in part because... It's not worth it for them to fly as many planes to have so much capacity on the market when jet fuel is so unstable and when the cost of flying is so expensive for them. Especially what we'll probably see is that ticket prices are going to go up which Ryanair also warned about and that means that more price-sensitive customers might not be willing to travel as much as they were before. What we're seeing right now is a very real fear that airlines that don't have enough liquidity, don't enough cash on hand basically, might not be able to afford the limit in basically tourists willing to pay the higher price and also be able afford to keep flying planes that might not be completely full. So especially in Europe, some of the smaller national carriers are potentially at risk of going bankrupt. And that's something that we'll probably start seeing in the autumn now and then moving into the winter season as traffic kind of gets leaner, fewer people travel. So I think there's a very real risk that a weaker airline might go bust now. So basically what we're seeing right now is a prolonged fear over the cost of jet fuel and the supply of jet fuel. Given the war in Iran it doesn't look like it's stopping anytime soon. There are very real concerns over how much that jet fuel is going to cost their bottom line and what we're seeing is we're entering the winter period for airlines which is a substantially less profitable and less busy time. Far fewer people travel in the winter than in the summer. This is kind of the risk that if you're being forced to pay such a high price, does it really make sense to fly as many planes, especially if people are more price sensitive, if people might not be willing to pay that higher price for jet fuel, given that there will probably be a pass-on effect where that cost of jet fuel is going to the customer."},"published_time":"2026-09-02T14:06:51Z","updated_time":"2026-09-02T14:07:17Z","thumbnail":{"url":"https://ajo.prod.reuters.tv/api/v2/img/6a982ce4e4b08e2aff52965d-1788358037139","caption":"Europe's biggest budget airline Ryanair cut its fiscal 2027 traffic target and warned high oil prices could be a survival test for some rivals. European Airlines and Travel Correspondent Joanna Plucinska has more.","type":"image","resizer_url":"https://ajo.prod.reuters.tv/api/v2/img/6a982ce4e4b08e2aff52965d-1788358037139"},"source":{"hls":"https://ajo.prod.reuters.tv/v3/playlist/787014/master.m3u8"},"channels":[{"id":"Global_Energy","name":"Energy","regions":["US"]},{"id":"HPUS","name":"RCOM Homepage US","regions":["US"]},{"id":"europe","name":"Europe","regions":["US"]},{"id":"autos-and-transportation","name":"Autos and Transportation","regions":["US"]},{"id":"6ffc0233e09c26943b265ef3abd575b2d872818b","name":"Business","regions":["US"]}],"advert_info":{"advert_params":[{"key":"adfriendly","value":true}],"advert_zone":"/4735792/reuters.com/business/energy"},"meta_data":[{"key":"upstream-description","value":"Europe's biggest budget airline Ryanair cut its fiscal 2027 traffic target and warned high oil prices could be a survival test for some rivals. 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Ryanair sends jet fuel crisis warning"},{"key":"external-asset-id","value":"285_RW973602092026RP1"},{"key":"lmp-feed","value":"lp"},{"key":"package-notes","value":"Ryanair, jet fuel, Iran War, Iran, Strait of Hormuz, travel, tourism, vacation"},{"key":"publisher-name","value":"reuters.com"},{"key":"package-format","value":"Other"},{"key":"region","value":"Remote"},{"key":"byline","value":"Various"}],"usn":"RW973602092026RP1"},{"id":"RW959202092026RP1","type":"video","subtype":"application/x-mpegURL","external_id":"RW959202092026RP1","title":"US Energy Secretary: 17 mln oil barrels crossed Strait of Hormuz","description":"U.S. Secretary of Energy Chris Wright said on Tuesday (September 1) that 17 million barrels of oil transited the Strait of Hormuz on Monday (August 31), saying it marked the highest level of crude oil to pass through the waterway since the Iran war had reduced flows.","duration":11.66,"transcript_data":{"transcript":"The United States Navy has done a simply tremendous job. And I can announce right now that yesterday, through the Strait of Hormuz, over 17 million barrels of oil flowed. The record since before the conflict."},"published_time":"2026-09-02T02:53:41Z","updated_time":"2026-09-02T02:53:42Z","thumbnail":{"url":"https://ajo.prod.reuters.tv/api/v2/img/6a978f5ae4b08e2aff5293b5-1788317609555","caption":"U.S. Secretary of Energy Chris Wright said on Tuesday (September 1) that 17 million barrels of oil transited the Strait of Hormuz on Monday (August 31), saying it marked the highest level of crude oil to pass through the waterway since the Iran war had reduced flows.","type":"image","resizer_url":"https://ajo.prod.reuters.tv/api/v2/img/6a978f5ae4b08e2aff5293b5-1788317609555"},"source":{"hls":"https://ajo.prod.reuters.tv/v3/playlist/786967/master.m3u8"},"channels":[{"id":"Global_Energy","name":"Energy","regions":["US"]},{"id":"World_News_US","name":"World News","regions":["US"]},{"id":"Article-Playlist-Middle-East","name":"Article-Playlist: Middle East","regions":["US"]},{"id":"13978","name":"US News","regions":["US"]},{"id":"6ffc0233e09c26943b265ef3abd575b2d872818b","name":"Business","regions":["US"]}],"advert_info":{"advert_params":[{"key":"adfriendly","value":true}],"advert_zone":"/4735792/reuters.com/business/energy"},"meta_data":[{"key":"upstream-description","value":"U.S. Secretary of Energy Chris Wright said on Tuesday (September 1) that 17 million barrels of oil transited the Strait of Hormuz on Monday (August 31), saying it marked the highest level of crude oil to pass through the waterway since the Iran war had reduced flows."},{"key":"copyright","value":"(c) 2026 Thomson Reuters, unless otherwise identified. 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Energy correspondent Robert Harvey explains.","duration":168.329,"transcript_data":{"transcript":"Those countries that have been affected by conflicts in 2026 have accounted for approximately 43% of the world's oil supply last year. Which is 45 million barrels per day Prior to the war, we would see around 20 million barrels per day of oil, transiting through the Strait of Hormuz. When the war started and that closed, it was effectively down to very, very small numbers. The actual number is extremely difficult to ascertain Then you have a more recent threat from the Iran-aligned Houthi rebels in Yemen who began attacking vessels in the Red Sea. The Middle East production itself has also been impacted by attacks. Ukraine has stepped up its campaign of drone strikes this year against Russian oil facilities, refineries, export terminals and even an oil platform on the Caspian Sea. What this has done is essentially it's given Russia something of a fuel crisis so that the gasoline and diesel that is used in industry and also by consumers in Russia has been in shorter supply this year because of those hits on refining capacity than it has been previously and as a result the Russian government has had to take measures to support supply domestically which has meant banning exports and that's so significant because Russia is the one of the biggest exporters of diesel in particular in the entire world. There's been protests and some clashes and even drone attacks now in Libya on some oil installations there. Those have taken out smaller amounts of production, more kind of sporadically, I would say. And in Venezuela, obviously, we had the upheaval and the capture of President Nicolas Maduro, or former president, at the start of this year. And that was under US blockade. So that they had to cut production because their storage was filling and they weren't able to export past that blockade when we're conducting this research, we focused on conflict, but 15% of the US's oil production was actually shut in in January by severe cold weather and winter storms. So it goes to show that these events conflicts, natural disasters are occurring and we're in a vulnerable situation with energy supply, with stocks drawn down."},"published_time":"2026-08-28T06:42:28Z","updated_time":"2026-08-28T06:42:29Z","thumbnail":{"url":"https://ajo.prod.reuters.tv/api/v2/img/6a912d1fe4b0f9a8fa391569-1787899275952","caption":"Almost half the world's oil comes from countries affected by conflict in 2026, Reuters calculations show, underscoring that current disruptions have eclipsed previous energy crises. Energy correspondent Robert Harvey explains.","type":"image","resizer_url":"https://ajo.prod.reuters.tv/api/v2/img/6a912d1fe4b0f9a8fa391569-1787899275952"},"source":{"hls":"https://ajo.prod.reuters.tv/v3/playlist/786638/master.m3u8"},"channels":[{"id":"Explainers","name":"Explainers","regions":["US"]},{"id":"Global_Energy","name":"Energy","regions":["US"]},{"id":"World_News_US","name":"World News","regions":["US"]},{"id":"HPUS","name":"RCOM Homepage US","regions":["US"]},{"id":"13978","name":"US News","regions":["US"]},{"id":"6ffc0233e09c26943b265ef3abd575b2d872818b","name":"Business","regions":["US"]}],"advert_info":{"advert_params":[{"key":"adfriendly","value":true}],"advert_zone":"/4735792/reuters.com/business/energy"},"meta_data":[{"key":"upstream-description","value":"Almost half the world's oil comes from countries affected by conflict in 2026, Reuters calculations show, underscoring that current disruptions have eclipsed previous energy crises. 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For Reuters customers only."},{"key":"package-mood","value":"Neutral"},{"key":"link","value":"tag:reuters.com,2026:newsml_RW771625082026RP1:4"},{"key":"upstream-channel-code","value":"hml568"},{"key":"upstream-title","value":"Almost half of global oil now flows from war zones"},{"key":"external-asset-id","value":"285_RW771625082026RP1"},{"key":"lmp-feed","value":"lp"},{"key":"package-notes","value":"Oil, Conflict, Global oil shortage"},{"key":"publisher-name","value":"reuters.com"},{"key":"package-format","value":"Other"},{"key":"region","value":"Remote"},{"key":"byline","value":"VARIOUS"}],"usn":"RW771625082026RP1"},{"id":"RW771125082026RP1","type":"video","subtype":"application/x-mpegURL","external_id":"RW771125082026RP1","title":"How the US naval blockade, rather than sanctions, is choking Iran","description":"After U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said on Monday (August 24) the country would launch an \"economic onslaught\" against Iran's financial connections around the globe, Dmitry Zhdannikov, commodities editor for Europe, Middle East & Africa, explains how sanctions are less likely to choke off Iran's lifeline - including oil purchases from China - than the U.S. naval blockade.","duration":142.66,"transcript_data":{"transcript":"The markets have been focusing in the past 24 hours on the announcement by U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent of new measures, against the Iranian oil industry, against Iran in general, and partners who are helping facilitate purchases of Iranian oil and its financial system. The consensus in the market that sanctions, the new announced measures, are pretty weak because we haven't seen any big name or institution placed on the list. China has been the main buyer of Iranian oil for the past decade and has said it would continue cooperation. And essentially, China has ring fenced its institution from any US sanctions. Anyone who is buying Iranian oil, the refineries and institutions which help fund those purchases, they don't have any U.S. exposure. So they are essentially isolated from the, global financial system. However, there is another very important story happening in parallel here, and it has nothing to do with the sanctions itself. Since the US military has re-established a physical blockade of Iranian oil, In the Gulf. Very little, possibly no tankers at all, with Iranian oil have reached the global markets. And, so it has been going on for six weeks. And as we know, oil is the, lifeline of the Iranian economy. Iran has been under US sanctions and then, lately under European Union sanctions, for over 40 years. And it has survived this pressure for a long, long time. However, we've never faced a moment when all of Iranian oil was as isolated and not flowing. Yes, there have been sanctions, but oil has always been leaking into the global market one way or another. So this is what the oil markets are currently talking about. How long Iran can last with no oil revenues at all, how exactly this military blockade of Iranian exports works? Is it far away from the Iranian shore or is it quite close to the Iranian shore? And what Iran can do to put an end to this and resume oil exports? These are the key questions that are currently worrying the oil markets."},"published_time":"2026-08-25T14:57:45Z","updated_time":"2026-08-25T15:27:22Z","thumbnail":{"url":"https://ajo.prod.reuters.tv/api/v2/img/6a8dacdce4b08e2aff527ed9-1787671517932","caption":"After U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said on Monday (August 24) the country would launch an \"economic onslaught\" against Iran's financial connections around the globe, Dmitry Zhdannikov, commodities editor for Europe, Middle East & Africa, explains how sanctions are less likely to choke off Iran's lifeline - including oil purchases from China - than the U.S. naval blockade.","type":"image","resizer_url":"https://ajo.prod.reuters.tv/api/v2/img/6a8dacdce4b08e2aff527ed9-1787671517932"},"source":{"hls":"https://ajo.prod.reuters.tv/v3/playlist/786397/master.m3u8"},"channels":[{"id":"Global_Energy","name":"Energy","regions":["US"]},{"id":"World_News_US","name":"World News","regions":["US"]},{"id":"HPUS","name":"RCOM Homepage US","regions":["US"]},{"id":"Article-Playlist-Middle-East","name":"Article-Playlist: Middle East","regions":["US"]},{"id":"13978","name":"US News","regions":["US"]}],"advert_info":{"advert_params":[{"key":"adfriendly","value":true}],"advert_zone":"/4735792/reuters.com/business/energy"},"meta_data":[{"key":"upstream-description","value":"After U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said on Monday (August 24) the country would launch an \"economic onslaught\" against Iran's financial connections around the globe, Dmitry Zhdannikov, commodities editor for Europe, Middle East & Africa, explains how sanctions are less likely to choke off Iran's lifeline - including oil purchases from China - than the U.S. naval blockade."},{"key":"copyright","value":"(c) 2026 Thomson Reuters, unless otherwise identified. 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China, as the biggest buyer of Iranian oil, is a key focus of any effort to squeeze Tehran's economy. Tony Munroe, Reuters' Asia Commodities and Energy Editor, explains.","duration":113.3,"transcript_data":{"transcript":"'The most important trade link between China and Iran is oil.' 'There have been sanctions that the U.S. has imposed on China's Iranian oil consumption, but they have not actually stopped volumes of Iranian oil from reaching China. What has had an impact, frankly, is the recent blockade. The U.S. has sanctioned Tehran and its oil trade for years, and China has largely disregarded that. Now there are some nuances to that. China is the biggest buyer of Iranian oil but its big state oil companies don't buy Iranian oil. So what China has been buying has been purchased by the independent refiners known as teapots. And over the years, the U.S. has imposed sanctions specifically selectively against small refiners.' If China is indeed targeted by fresh measures, we have seen in the recent past quite a bit of tit-for-tat retaliation between China and the U.S. There has been a trade war between the two countries, Presumably if past is prologue, there would be some sort of retaliation. Exactly a month from now, Chinese President Xi Jinping is due to visit Washington, and so it is an awkward time to impose fresh sanctions on China at this moment.'"},"published_time":"2026-08-24T09:41:17Z","updated_time":"2026-08-24T09:41:19Z","thumbnail":{"url":"https://ajo.prod.reuters.tv/api/v2/img/6a8c1146e4b06d41127b88c6","caption":"The United States has threatened Iran with what it calls \"the greatest financial offensive ever marshaled,\" with new sanctions targeting Tehran's trading partners set to take effect on Monday (August 24). China, as the biggest buyer of Iranian oil, is a key focus of any effort to squeeze Tehran's economy. Tony Munroe, Reuters' Asia Commodities and Energy Editor, explains.","type":"image","resizer_url":"https://ajo.prod.reuters.tv/api/v2/img/6a8c1146e4b06d41127b88c6"},"source":{"hls":"https://ajo.prod.reuters.tv/v3/playlist/786297/master.m3u8"},"channels":[{"id":"Global_Energy","name":"Energy","regions":["US"]},{"id":"World_News_US","name":"World News","regions":["US"]},{"id":"HPUS","name":"RCOM Homepage US","regions":["US"]},{"id":"Article-Playlist-Asia","name":"Article-Playlist: Asia","regions":["US"]},{"id":"Article-Playlist-Middle-East","name":"Article-Playlist: Middle East","regions":["US"]},{"id":"13978","name":"US News","regions":["US"]},{"id":"china","name":"China","regions":["US"]},{"id":"6ffc0233e09c26943b265ef3abd575b2d872818b","name":"Business","regions":["US"]}],"advert_info":{"advert_params":[{"key":"adfriendly","value":true}],"advert_zone":"/4735792/reuters.com/business/energy"},"meta_data":[{"key":"upstream-description","value":"The United States has threatened Iran with what it calls \"the greatest financial offensive ever marshaled,\" with new sanctions targeting Tehran's trading partners set to take effect on Monday (August 24). 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Wood Mackenzie Research Director Sushant Gupta talks to Reuters about how markets trade the chaos. ","duration":288.1,"transcript_data":{"transcript":"It looks like being another big week for oil markets as the standoff in the Middle East shows no sign of easing. Brent crude was up around 6% last week and there is plenty for traders to think about as the new week begins. With me to discuss what happens next is Wood Mackenzie Research Director Sushant Gupta. Sushant, we seem to be stuck in this cycle of escalation, de-escalation, re-escalation, climb up, climb down. How do traders even make sense of this now how do they deal with the news flow? So I think I would say, you know, overall, if you say the spikes which we are seeing in the market, they have kind of, you know, subsided in the sense the novelty factor of this particular event is going down. In a way, if you remember when it first started, we saw an immediate spike, you know, going towards more than, you know, $120 per barrel. But now with this, you know, many, many rounds of escalation, de-escalation, you know, people have got kind of used to, you know these news and they're more pegging these numbers to the fundamentals and not so much to the market sentiment. So the market sentiment part of the overall price has reduced over time. Right, we'll get on to fundamentals in a minute. But first of all, do you feel you have a clear picture now of how much oil is actually moving through the straight? Figures out Monday showed another decline in tanker movements. Yeah, I think from the latest, I think only a few tankers which we have tracked, which are passing through, those are visible to the market. There may be other which are switching off the transponders and passing through. But traffic has significantly slowed down compared to what we saw in July. So on supply and demand, on the one hand, supply is sharply down by some counts as badly as it was in the 1979 Iran revolution. On the other hand, demand is also down. So where does that leave us? Are we back in balance? Is it that simple? We are still not balanced because overall, sometimes in July, we have seen we are still short of around 8.5 million barrels per day of overall market balance, which we're still drawing down from the stocks in various parts of the world. So even though the demand has fallen, and we've seen in quarter to our estimators around 4 to 5 million barrels per day of demand decline we are still short of proof. There is also the Ukraine war to think about, of course. How big a factor is that? Now, there are figures showing a decline in Russian seaborne crude movements. Big factor or fairly marginal at this point? I would say, so there are two things happening on the Russian side, right? Obviously, a large part is in the infrastructure on the refining side, where we are seeing refining runs for almost two and a half billion barrels per day down. And that, you know, naturally that might feel that, you know, there's more food available to export because they're not processing it. But at the same time, we're also seeing, you know, the export infrastructure for crude is getting hit by drones. So overall you know we're seeing you know Russia crude exports are fairly there are some disruptions but they're fairly remain stable around 3 million barrels per day you know from the port surrounded region. So if you put all that together, how long can this relative equilibrium last before we get a dramatic shift one way or the other? So, you know, eventually, if you imagine this continues for the next few months, right, so five to six months, there will be a point in time where, I mean the crude and the product inventories will reach a point where, you know, it will look extremely low to the market. And that's a point when the market will start panicking. The prices have to increase to bring the demand in balance. So if the supply economy is resolved and you know the other part of the equation is demand and we expect you know prices rising to a point where you know countries, economies, will start taking a hit on their economic growth in the demand. Can you put a time frame on that? How long till we reach some kind of crisis point? So, we already have the November elections coming in the US. That probably is one milestone which we have to look forward to. The other thing is that the governments and the economic growth will be another thing. If we are flirting with recession in many parts of the world, that's again a milestone, a turning point where we'll put pressure on many economies to, again, call for some resolution to this crisis. All right, we shall leave it there. That was Wood Mackenzie Research Director Sushant Gupta. 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