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Tax Foundation on the House-passed 2025 tax bill

Tax Foundation · 2025-06-06

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	<title>One Big Beautiful Bill | House GOP Tax Plan: Details and Analysis</title>
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    <h1 class="section-overview__title">&#8220;One Big Beautiful Bill Act&#8221; House GOP Tax Plan: Details and Analysis</h1><span class="posted-on"><time class="entry-date published" datetime="2025-06-06T15:46:40-04:00">June 6, 2025</time><time class="updated" datetime="2025-07-28T16:26:54-04:00">July 28, 2025</time></span><span class="post-reading-time">9 min read</span><span class="posted-by">By: <span class="author vcard"><a href="https://taxfoundation.org/about-us/staff/garrett-watson/">Garrett Watson</a></span>, <span class="author vcard"><a href="https://taxfoundation.org/about-us/staff/erica-york/">Erica York</a></span>, <span class="author vcard"><a href="https://taxfoundation.org/about-us/staff/alex-muresianu/">Alex Muresianu</a></span>, <span class="author vcard"><a href="https://taxfoundation.org/about-us/staff/alex-durante/">Alex Durante</a></span>, <span class="author vcard"><a href="https://taxfoundation.org/about-us/staff/huaqun-li/">Huaqun Li</a></span>, <span class="author vcard"><a href="https://taxfoundation.org/about-us/staff/peter-van-ness/">Peter Van Ness</a></span>, <span class="author vcard"><a href="https://taxfoundation.org/about-us/staff/aleksei-shilov/">Aleksei Shilov</a></span>, <span class="author vcard"><a href="https://taxfoundation.org/about-us/staff/william-mcbride/">William McBride</a></span></span><div class="btn-group">    <a href="https://taxfoundation.org/research/all/federal/big-beautiful-bill-senate-gop-tax-plan/" class="btn btn--tertiary">See Latest Version</a>
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  <h2>Latest Updates</h2>
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    <li data-aos="fade-right" data-date="June 6, 2025">Updated modeling and analysis of the House-passed “One, Big, Beautiful” reconciliation bill </li><li data-aos="fade-right" data-date="May 23, 2025">Updated analysis of the House-passed “One, Big, Beautiful” reconciliation bill on May 22, 2025.</li>  </ol>
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<p><a class="btn btn--primary" href="https://taxfoundation.org/research/all/federal/big-beautiful-bill-senate-gop-tax-plan/">See FINAL Version</a>  <a class="btn btn--secondary" href="https://taxfoundation.org/research/all/federal/one-big-beautiful-bill-act-tax-changes/">Launch our FAQ</a></p>
<p>The House <a href="https://www.cbsnews.com/news/house-vote-trump-tax-bill/">passed</a> the “<a href="https://www.cbsnews.com/news/house-vote-trump-tax-bill/">One, Big, Beautiful</a>” <a href="https://taxfoundation.org/research/all/federal/trump-tax-cuts-2025-budget-reconciliation/">reconciliation</a> bill on Thursday, May 22, addressing the expirations of the 2017 <span class="glossary-term"><a href="https://taxfoundation.org/taxedu/glossary/tax/">Tax</a><cite class="glossary-term-summary">A tax is a mandatory payment or charge collected by local, state, and national governments from individuals or businesses to cover the costs of general government services, goods, and activities.</cite></span> Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA) and making additional changes to US tax policy and spending</p>
<p>Our analysis finds the tax provisions included in the House-passed bill would increase long-run GDP by 0.8 percent. The bill’s provisions would reduce federal tax revenue by $4 trillion between 2025 and 2034, on a conventional basis. On a dynamic basis, incorporating the projected increase in long-run GDP of 0.8 percent, the dynamic score of the tax provisions falls to $3.1 trillion, meaning economic growth pays for 22 percent of the tax cuts. The bill’s net spending cuts of about $1.5 trillion offset some of the revenue reduction, leading to a total budget deficit increase of $1.7 trillion over 10 years on a dynamic basis.</p>
<p>Overall, the bill would prevent tax increases on 62 percent of taxpayers that would occur if the TCJA expired as scheduled. However, by introducing narrowly targeted new provisions and sunsetting the most pro-growth provisions, like <a href="https://taxfoundation.org/taxedu/glossary/bonus-depreciation/">bonus depreciation</a> and research and development (R&amp;D) expensing, it leaves economic growth on the table and complicates the structure of the tax code.</p>
<p>The House-passed budget resolution (which contains the instructions that committees must follow for the reconciliation process) would allow a $4.5 trillion increase in the deficit from tax cuts over the next decade so long as spending is cut by $1.7 trillion. But if spending is not cut by $1.7 trillion, the cap on tax cuts will be reduced dollar-for-dollar. The House-passed bill as currently estimated meets the requirements of the budget resolution.</p>
<h2 id="tablepress-919-name" class="tablepress-table-name tablepress-table-name-id-919"><h4>Table 1. Summary of Preliminary Long-Run Economic and 10-Year Revenue Effects of House Reconciliation Bill Tax Package</h4></h2>

<table id="tablepress-919" class="tablepress tablepress-id-919 tablepress-responsive" aria-labelledby="tablepress-919-name" aria-describedby="tablepress-919-description">
<thead>
<tr class="row-1">
	<th class="column-1">10-Year Conventional Revenue Estimate (Billions)</th><th class="column-2">10-Year Dynamic Revenue Estimate (Billons)</th><th class="column-3">10-Year Dynamic Deficit Increase Including Spending Cuts (Billions)</th><th class="column-4">Long-Run GDP</th><th class="column-5">Long-Run GNP</th><th class="column-6">Long-Run Wages</th><th class="column-7">Long-Run Hours Worked Converted to FTE Jobs</th>
</tr>
</thead>
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<tr class="row-2">
	<td class="column-1">-$4,006.5</td><td class="column-2">-$3,111.5</td><td class="column-3">$1,724.6</td><td class="column-4">+0.8%</td><td class="column-5">+0.7%</td><td class="column-6">Less than +0.05%</td><td class="column-7">983,000</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<span id="tablepress-919-description" class="tablepress-table-description tablepress-table-description-id-919">Source: Tax Foundation General Equilibrium Model, May 2025.</span>
<!-- #tablepress-919 from cache -->
<h2><strong>Major Provisions and Effective Dates</strong></h2>
<p>We model the economic, revenue, and distributional effects of the following major provisions, effective after the end of 2025 unless other dates are specified:</p>
<h3>Individual Provisions</h3>
<ul>
<li><span style="color: #162127;"> Make the expiring rate and bracket changes of the TCJA permanent and increase the <span class="glossary-term"><a href="https://taxfoundation.org/taxedu/glossary/inflation/">inflation</a><cite class="glossary-term-summary">Inflation is when the general price of goods and services increases across the economy, reducing the purchasing power of a currency and the value of certain assets. The same paycheck covers less goods, services, and bills. It is sometimes referred to as a “hidden tax,” as it leaves taxpayers less well-off due to higher costs and “bracket creep,” while increasing the government’s spendin</cite></span> adjustment for all brackets excluding the 37 percent threshold</span></li>
<li><span style="color: #162127;">Make the expiring <span class="glossary-term"><a href="https://taxfoundation.org/taxedu/glossary/standard-deduction/">standard deduction</a><cite class="glossary-term-summary">The standard deduction reduces a taxpayer’s taxable income by a set amount determined by the government. Taxpayers who take the standard deduction cannot also itemize their deductions; it serves as an alternative.</cite></span> levels permanent and temporarily boost the standard deduction by $2,000 for joint filers, $1,500 for head of household filers, and $1,000 for all other filers from 2025 through the end of 2028</span></li>
<li><span style="color: #162127;">Make the personal exemption elimination permanent</span></li>
<li><span style="color: #162127;">Make the $750,000 limitation and the exclusion of interest on home equity loans for the home <span class="glossary-term"><a href="https://taxfoundation.org/taxedu/glossary/mortgage-interest-deduction-mid/">mortgage interest deduction</a><cite class="glossary-term-summary">The mortgage interest deduction is an itemized deduction for interest paid on home mortgages. It reduces households’ taxable incomes and, consequently, their total taxes paid. The Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA) reduced the amount of principal and limited the types of loans that qualify for the deduction.</cite></span> permanent\</span></li>
<li><span style="color: #162127;">Make the <span class="glossary-term"><a href="https://taxfoundation.org/taxedu/glossary/salt-deduction/">state and local tax (SALT) deduction</a><cite class="glossary-term-summary">The state and local tax (SALT) deduction permits taxpayers who itemize when filing federal taxes to deduct certain taxes paid to state and local governments. The Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA) capped it at $10,000 per year, consisting of property taxes plus state income or sales taxes, but not both.</cite></span> cap permanent at a higher threshold of $40,000, phasing down to $10,000 at a rate of 30 percent beginning at modified adjusted <span class="glossary-term"><a href="https://taxfoundation.org/taxedu/glossary/gross-income/">gross income</a><cite class="glossary-term-summary">For individuals, gross income is the total of all income received from any source before taxes or deductions. It includes wages, salaries, tips, interest, dividends, capital gains, rental income, alimony, pensions, and other forms of income.
For businesses, gross income (or gross profit) is the sum of total receipts or sales minus the cost of goods sold (COGS)—the direct costs of producing goods</cite></span> of $250,000 for single filers and $500,000 for joint filers. The cap and income thresholds increase by 1 percent per year over the next 10 years.</span></li>
<li><span style="color: #162127;">Make other changes and limitations to itemized deductions permanent, including: the limitation on personal casualty losses and wagering losses and termination of miscellaneous itemized deductions, Pease limitation on itemized deductions, and certain moving expenses</span></li>
<li><span style="color: #162127;">Limit the value of itemized deductions to 32 or 35 cents on the dollar for those in the top tax bracket</span></li>
<li><span style="color: #162127;">Make the expiring child <span class="glossary-term"><a href="https://taxfoundation.org/taxedu/glossary/tax-credit/">tax credit</a><cite class="glossary-term-summary">A tax credit is a provision that reduces a taxpayer’s final tax bill, dollar-for-dollar. A tax credit differs from deductions and exemptions, which reduce taxable income rather than the taxpayer’s tax bill directly.</cite></span> permanent; temporarily increase the maximum credit to $2,500 from 2025 through the end of 2028; inflation adjust the $2,000 max in years thereafter</span></li>
<li><span style="color: #162127;">Make the increase in the alternative minimum <span class="glossary-term"><a href="https://taxfoundation.org/taxedu/glossary/tax-exemption/">tax exemption</a><cite class="glossary-term-summary">A tax exemption excludes certain income, revenue, or even taxpayers from tax altogether. For example, nonprofits that fulfill certain requirements are granted tax-exempt status by the Internal Revenue Service (IRS), preventing them from having to pay income tax.</cite></span> and phaseout thresholds permanent and adjust related <span class="glossary-term"><a href="https://taxfoundation.org/taxedu/glossary/inflation-indexing/">inflation indexing</a><cite class="glossary-term-summary">Inflation indexing refers to automatic cost-of-living adjustments built into tax provisions to keep pace with inflation. Absent these adjustments, income taxes are subject to “bracket creep” and stealth increases on taxpayers, while excise taxes are vulnerable to erosion as taxes expressed in nominal dollars, rather than rates, slowly lose value.</cite></span> calculations</span></li>
<li><span style="color: #162127;">Repeal several Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) green tax subsidies primarily aimed at individuals, such as electric vehicle and residential energy efficiency credits, after 2025</span></li>
<li><span style="color: #162127;">Temporarily make tip income deductible for tax years 2025 through 2028 for individuals in traditionally and customarily tipped industries, excluding highly compensated employees</span></li>
<li>Temporarily make auto loan interest deductible for itemizers and non-itemizers for autos with final assembly in the <a class="location" href="https://taxfoundation.org/location/united-states/">United States</a> for tax years 2025 through 2028; deduction limited to $10,000 and phases out by $200 for every $1,000 of income above $100,000 for single filers and $200,000 for joint filers</li>
<li>Temporarily increase the additional standard deduction for seniors by $4,000 for tax years 2025 through 2028 and extend the increase to itemizers; larger deduction phases out at a 4 percent rate when modified adjusted gross income exceeds $75,000 for single filers and $150,000 for joint filers</li>
<li>Temporarily make overtime compensation deductible for the premium portion of overtime for itemizers and non-itemizers for tax years 2025 through 2028, excluding highly compensated employees and qualified tips</li>
<li>Tighten rules on claims for premium tax credits (PTCs), the child tax credit, and the earned income tax credit (EITC). Repeal limitations on PTC clawbacks for credits advanced to taxpayers</li>
</ul>
<h3>Estate Provisions</h3>
<ul>
<li>Permanently increase the estate and <span class="glossary-term"><a href="https://taxfoundation.org/taxedu/glossary/gift-tax/">gift tax</a><cite class="glossary-term-summary">A gift tax is a tax on the transfer of property by a living individual, without payment or a valuable exchange in return. The donor, not the recipient of the gift, is typically liable for the tax.</cite></span> exemption to an inflation-indexed $15 million beginning in 2026</li>
</ul>
<h3>Business and International Provisions</h3>
<ul>
<li>Permanently reduce the post-2025 global intangible low taxed income (GILTI) inclusion rate from 62.5 percent to 50.8 percent, increase the foreign-derived intangible income (FDII) deduction from 21.875 percent to 36.5 percent, and reduce the base erosion and anti-abuse tax (BEAT) rate from 12.5 percent to 10.1 percent.</li>
<li>Make the Section 199A pass-through deduction permanent; increase the deduction percentage from 20 percent to 23 percent; modify the limitations based on W-2 wages and capital investment and for specified services and trade businesses (SSTBs)</li>
<li>Close SALT cap workarounds for pass-through businesses that are considered SSTBs under Section 199A</li>
<li>Make the noncorporate loss limitation permanent and tighten related rules</li>
<li>Sunset major IRA clean electricity tax credits: clean electricity production tax credit (45Y) and clean electricity investment tax credit (48E) eliminated for projects for which construction begins more than 60 days after enactment or property placed in service after 2028, except for advanced nuclear projects under construction before 2029; nuclear electricity production tax credit (45U) eliminated after 2031; repeal hydrogen production credit (45V) for facilities beginning construction after 2025</li>
<li>Phase out advanced manufacturing production credit (45x) for wind energy components after 2027, for all other eligible components after 2031</li>
<li>Across several IRA green energy credits, further restrict credits based on involvement of foreign entities of concern (FEOC)</li>
<li>Expand clean fuel production credit (45K)</li>
<li>Tighten rules on the 162(m) limitation for executive compensation</li>
<li>Limit deductibility of C corporation charitable contributions by implementing a 1 percent floor on the deduction</li>
<li><a href="https://taxfoundation.org/blog/house-tax-plan-economic-growth-impact-business-tax-permanent/">Temporarily</a> restore 100 percent <span class="glossary-term"><a href="https://taxfoundation.org/taxedu/glossary/bonus-depreciation/">bonus depreciation</a><cite class="glossary-term-summary">Bonus depreciation allows firms to deduct a larger portion of certain “short-lived” investments in new or improved technology, equipment, or buildings in the first year. Allowing businesses to write off more investments partially alleviates a bias in the tax code and incentivizes companies to invest more, which, in the long run, raises worker productivity, boosts wages, and creates more jobs.</cite></span> for short-lived investment from 2025 through 2029</li>
<li><a href="https://taxfoundation.org/blog/house-tax-plan-economic-growth-impact-business-tax-permanent/">Temporarily</a> restore immediate expensing for domestic research and development (R&amp;D) expenses from 2025 through 2029</li>
<li><a href="https://taxfoundation.org/blog/house-tax-plan-economic-growth-impact-business-tax-permanent/">Temporarily</a> reinstate the EBITDA-based limitation on business net interest deductions from 2025 through 2029</li>
<li><a href="https://taxfoundation.org/blog/house-tax-plan-economic-growth-impact-business-tax-permanent/">Temporarily</a> provide 100 percent expensing of qualifying structures in manufacturing, extraction, and agriculture sectors for which construction begins before the end of 2028 and placed in service date occurs before the end of 2032</li>
</ul>
<p>We incorporate revenue scores from the Joint Committee on Taxation for all other provisions not scored by Tax Foundation, including higher taxes on endowments and private foundations and other various rule changes. We incorporate spending change estimates from the Congressional Budget Office to estimate the full effect of the House bill on the budget deficit.</p>
<h2><strong>Long-Run Economic Results</strong></h2>
<p>We estimate that together, the major tax provisions we modeled would lower marginal tax rates on work in the United States, leading to a 0.8 percent expansion in the size of the long-run economy. The capital stock would grow by 0.2 percent, and pre-tax wages would grow by less than 0.05 percent. The capital stock and wages grow less than the broader economy due to higher marginal tax rates on housing investment under the limitations on itemized deductions. Hours worked would expand by 983,000 full-time equivalent jobs.</p>
<p>American incomes measured by GNP would increase by 0.7 percent. The deficit impact of the bill drives a wedge of 0.3 percent between the increase in economic output and the increase in American incomes.</p>
<p>The tax and spending provisions would increase the budget deficit by $1.7 trillion from 2025 through 2034 on a dynamic basis, and that higher budget deficit would require the US government to borrow more. As interest payments on the debt made to foreigners increase, American incomes decrease.</p>
<h2 id="tablepress-920-name" class="tablepress-table-name tablepress-table-name-id-920"><h4>Table 2. Long-Run Economic Effects of House Reconciliation Bill Tax Package</h4></h2>

<table id="tablepress-920" class="tablepress tablepress-id-920 tablepress-responsive" aria-labelledby="tablepress-920-name" aria-describedby="tablepress-920-description">
<thead>
<tr class="row-1">
	<td class="column-1"></td><th class="column-2">GDP</th><th class="column-3">GNP</th><th class="column-4">Capital Stock</th><th class="column-5">Pre-Tax Wages</th><th class="column-6">Hours Worked Converted to FTEs</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody class="row-striping row-hover">
<tr class="row-2">
	<td class="column-1">Lower rates and wider thresholds on certain brackets and inflation adjustments</td><td class="column-2">1.1%</td><td class="column-3">1.2%</td><td class="column-4">1.2%</td><td class="column-5">0.1%</td><td class="column-6">1,233,000</td>
</tr>
<tr class="row-3">
	<td class="column-1">AMT exemption and exemption threshold changes</td><td class="column-2">-0.1%</td><td class="column-3">-0.1%</td><td class="column-4">Less than +0.05%</td><td class="column-5">0.1%</td><td class="column-6">-125,000</td>
</tr>
<tr class="row-4">
	<td class="column-1">Larger standard deduction and inflation adjustments</td><td class="column-2">-0.1%</td><td class="column-3">0.0%</td><td class="column-4">-0.6%</td><td class="column-5">-0.2%</td><td class="column-6">72,000</td>
</tr>
<tr class="row-5">
	<td class="column-1">No personal exemptions</td><td class="column-2">-0.2%</td><td class="column-3">-0.2%</td><td class="column-4">-0.2%</td><td class="column-5">Less than -0.05%</td><td class="column-6">-166,170</td>
</tr>
<tr class="row-6">
	<td class="column-1">Permanence for TCJA child tax credit and other dependent tax credit expansion and inflation adjustments</td><td class="column-2">0.1%</td><td class="column-3">0.1%</td><td class="column-4">0.1%</td><td class="column-5">0.0%</td><td class="column-6">32,000</td>
</tr>
<tr class="row-7">
	<td class="column-1">$40,000 Cap on State and Local Tax Deductions, increased 1% annually for 10 years</td><td class="column-2">-0.5%</td><td class="column-3">-0.4%</td><td class="column-4">-0.9%</td><td class="column-5">-0.3%</td><td class="column-6">-193,000</td>
</tr>
<tr class="row-8">
	<td class="column-1">Phase down $40,000 SALT cap to $10,000 at a 30% rate when income exceeds $500,000</td><td class="column-2">-0.1%</td><td class="column-3">Less than -0.05%</td><td class="column-4">-0.2%</td><td class="column-5">-0.1%</td><td class="column-6">-20,000</td>
</tr>
<tr class="row-9">
	<td class="column-1">Disallow SALT deduction cap workarounds for certain income</td><td class="column-2">-0.1%</td><td class="column-3">-0.1%</td><td class="column-4">-0.3%</td><td class="column-5">-0.1%</td><td class="column-6">-37,000</td>
</tr>
<tr class="row-10">
	<td class="column-1">Other limitations on itemized deductions and Pease limitation repeal</td><td class="column-2">-0.1%</td><td class="column-3">Less than -0.05%</td><td class="column-4">-0.3%</td><td class="column-5">-0.1%</td><td class="column-6">-18,000</td>
</tr>
<tr class="row-11">
	<td class="column-1">Section 199A pass-through deduction permanence at 23% deduction rate</td><td class="column-2">0.6%</td><td class="column-3">0.5%</td><td class="column-4">1.0%</td><td class="column-5">0.4%</td><td class="column-6">157,000</td>
</tr>
<tr class="row-12">
	<td class="column-1">Limit the value of itemized deductions for high earners</td><td class="column-2">Less than -0.05%</td><td class="column-3">Less than -0.05%</td><td class="column-4">Less than -0.05%</td><td class="column-5">0.0%</td><td class="column-6">-1,000</td>
</tr>
<tr class="row-13">
	<td class="column-1">Designate a 1% floor on corporate charitable deductions</td><td class="column-2">Less than -0.05%</td><td class="column-3">Less than -0.05%</td><td class="column-4">Less than -0.05%</td><td class="column-5">Less than -0.05%</td><td class="column-6">-2,000</td>
</tr>
<tr class="row-14">
	<td class="column-1">Retain modified current policy GILTI, FDII, and BEAT rates</td><td class="column-2">0.2%</td><td class="column-3">0.2%</td><td class="column-4">0.4%</td><td class="column-5">0.2%</td><td class="column-6">52,000</td>
</tr>
<tr class="row-15">
	<td class="column-1">Make existing estate tax thresholds permanent and raise the estate tax exemption to $15 million (single) and $30 million (joint), indexed for inflation starting in 2026</td><td class="column-2">0.0%</td><td class="column-3">0.0%</td><td class="column-4">0.0%</td><td class="column-5">0.0%</td><td class="column-6">-</td>
</tr>
<tr class="row-16">
	<td class="column-1">Make permanent and establish changes to the limitation on excess business losses of noncorporate taxpayers</td><td class="column-2">Less than -0.05%</td><td class="column-3">Less than -0.05%</td><td class="column-4">Less than -0.05%</td><td class="column-5">Less than -0.05%</td><td class="column-6">-1,000</td>
</tr>
<tr class="row-17">
	<td class="column-1">Implement aggregation rules for 162(m) highly compensated employee deduction limits</td><td class="column-2">Less than -0.05%</td><td class="column-3">Less than -0.05%</td><td class="column-4">Less than -0.05%</td><td class="column-5">Less than -0.05%</td><td class="column-6">-1,000</td>
</tr>
<tr class="row-18">
	<td class="column-1"></td><td class="column-2"></td><td class="column-3"></td><td class="column-4"></td><td class="column-5"></td><td class="column-6"></td>
</tr>
<tr class="row-19">
	<td class="column-1">Deficit Impact on American Incomes</td><td class="column-2">0.0%</td><td class="column-3">-0.3%</td><td class="column-4">0.0%</td><td class="column-5">0.0%</td><td class="column-6">-</td>
</tr>
<tr class="row-20">
	<td class="column-1"></td><td class="column-2"></td><td class="column-3"></td><td class="column-4"></td><td class="column-5"></td><td class="column-6"></td>
</tr>
<tr class="row-21">
	<td class="column-1">Total</td><td class="column-2">0.8%</td><td class="column-3">0.7%</td><td class="column-4">0.2%</td><td class="column-5">Less than +0.05%</td><td class="column-6">983,000</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<span id="tablepress-920-description" class="tablepress-table-description tablepress-table-description-id-920">Source: Tax Foundation General Equilibrium Model, May 2025. </span>
<!-- #tablepress-920 from cache -->
<h2><strong>10-Year Revenue Results</strong></h2>
<p>We estimate the tax provisions would reduce federal revenues by $4.0 trillion between 2025 and 2034. Most of the revenue reduction comes after 2025, when the major provisions of the TCJA are scheduled to sunset.</p>
<p>On a dynamic basis, incorporating the projected increase in long-run GDP of 0.8 percent, the revenue loss falls by about 22 percent to $3.1 trillion over the 10-year budget window.</p>
<p>In total, accounting for all provisions, including about $1.5 trillion in net spending cuts <a href="https://www.cbo.gov/publication/61461">estimated</a> by CBO, we estimate the House bill would increase budget deficits by $1.7 trillion on a dynamic basis over 10 years.</p>
<p>The projected ratio of debt to GDP would increase from a baseline level of 162.3 percent in about 35 years to 174.3 percent on a conventional basis. After factoring in the revenue feedback from economic growth, debt to GDP would rise 5.7 percentage points to 168.0 percent by that 2059 target year.</p>
<p> We provide a detailed revenue table above available for download.</p>
<p><a class="btn btn--primary" href="https://taxfoundation.org/wp-content/uploads/2025/05/Full-Revenue-table.xlsx">Download Full Revenue Table</a></p>
<h2 id="tablepress-921-name" class="tablepress-table-name tablepress-table-name-id-921"><h4>Table 3. 10-Year Revenue Effects and Deficit Impact of House Reconciliation Bill, Billions </h4></h2>

<table id="tablepress-921" class="tablepress tablepress-id-921 tablepress-responsive" aria-labelledby="tablepress-921-name" aria-describedby="tablepress-921-description">
<thead>
<tr class="row-1">
	<td class="column-1"></td><th class="column-2">2025</th><th class="column-3">2026</th><th class="column-4">2027</th><th class="column-5">2028</th><th class="column-6">2029</th><th class="column-7">2030</th><th class="column-8">2031</th><th class="column-9">2032</th><th class="column-10">2033</th><th class="column-11">2034</th><th class="column-12">2025-2034</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody class="row-striping row-hover">
<tr class="row-2">
	<td class="column-1">Conventional Revenue Effect of House Tax Package</td><td class="column-2">-$278.0</td><td class="column-3">-$556.9</td><td class="column-4">-$571.4</td><td class="column-5">-$530.1</td><td class="column-6">-$387.1</td><td class="column-7">-$222.6</td><td class="column-8">-$290.2</td><td class="column-9">-$335.1</td><td class="column-10">-$405.5</td><td class="column-11">-$429.6</td><td class="column-12">-$4,006.5</td>
</tr>
<tr class="row-3">
	<td class="column-1">Dynamic Revenue Effect of House Tax Package</td><td class="column-2">-$251.7</td><td class="column-3">-$475.1</td><td class="column-4">-$464.1</td><td class="column-5">-$406.8</td><td class="column-6">-$269.8</td><td class="column-7">-$140.0</td><td class="column-8">-$203.9</td><td class="column-9">-$245.4</td><td class="column-10">-$318.5</td><td class="column-11">-$336.3</td><td class="column-12">-$3,111.5</td>
</tr>
<tr class="row-4">
	<td class="column-1"></td><td class="column-2"></td><td class="column-3"></td><td class="column-4"></td><td class="column-5"></td><td class="column-6"></td><td class="column-7"></td><td class="column-8"></td><td class="column-9"></td><td class="column-10"></td><td class="column-11"></td><td class="column-12"></td>
</tr>
<tr class="row-5">
	<td class="column-1">Conventional Deficit Change of House Reconciliation Bill</td><td class="column-2">-$128.2</td><td class="column-3">-$542.8</td><td class="column-4">-$522.3</td><td class="column-5">-$436.2</td><td class="column-6">-$268.3</td><td class="column-7">-$69.3</td><td class="column-8">-$109.6</td><td class="column-9">-$136.3</td><td class="column-10">-$194.1</td><td class="column-11">-$212.5</td><td class="column-12">-$2,619.6</td>
</tr>
<tr class="row-6">
	<td class="column-1">Dynamic Deficit Change of House Reconciliation Bill</td><td class="column-2">-$102.0</td><td class="column-3">-$461.0</td><td class="column-4">-$414.9</td><td class="column-5">-$313.0</td><td class="column-6">-$150.9</td><td class="column-7">$13.2</td><td class="column-8">-$23.3</td><td class="column-9">-$46.5</td><td class="column-10">-$107.0</td><td class="column-11">-$119.2</td><td class="column-12">-$1,724.6</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<span id="tablepress-921-description" class="tablepress-table-description tablepress-table-description-id-921">Source: Tax Foundation General Equilibrium Model, May 2025.</span>
<!-- #tablepress-921 from cache -->
<h2><strong>Distributional Effects</strong></h2>
<p>We model the distributional effects of the major provisions listed above. Overall, the House bill has outlined significant tax cuts that would, on average, increase market incomes by 2.1 percent in 2025 and by 4.0 percent in 2026. The difference between 2025 and 2026 is primarily because the TCJA provisions do not expire until 2026, so extending them does not have an effect in 2025.</p>
<p>Some business provisions and increases to individual provisions are available in the first half of the budget window but sunset by the latter half, so by 2034, the increase in <span class="glossary-term"><a href="https://taxfoundation.org/taxedu/glossary/after-tax-income/">after-tax income</a><cite class="glossary-term-summary">After-tax income is the net amount of income available to invest, save, or consume after federal, state, and withholding taxes have been applied—your disposable income. Companies and, to a lesser extent, individuals, make economic decisions in light of how they can best maximize their earnings.</cite></span> would be smaller at 2.3 percent on average. On a dynamic basis, we estimate that market incomes would increase by 2.9 percent on average in 2034, reflecting the increase in economic output under the plan.</p>
<p>The after-tax market income for the bottom quintile in 2034 falls by 0.6 percent on a conventional basis as tighter rules for premium tax credits, the earned income credit, and the child tax credit take effect. However, after accounting for economic growth, after-tax income for the bottom quintile increases by 0.1 percent in 2034.</p>
<p>In general, the middle quintile sees the largest gains in the initial years, with after-tax income increasing 2.6 percent in 2025 and 4.3 percent in 2026 on a conventional basis. This is largely the result of extension and expansion of the TCJA’s expiring individual tax provisions as well as the temporary exemptions for tips and overtime and the deductions for seniors and auto loans.</p>
<p>In 2034, the top quintile sees the largest gains, with after-tax income increasing 3.1 percent after accounting for economic growth. This is largely due to extension and expansion of the TCJA’s expiring individual tax provisions.</p>
<h2 id="tablepress-922-name" class="tablepress-table-name tablepress-table-name-id-922"><h4>Table 4. Distributional Effect of Major Provisions of House Big, Beautiful Bill Tax Package, Percent Change in After-Tax Market Income </h4></h2>

<table id="tablepress-922" class="tablepress tablepress-id-922 tablepress-responsive" aria-labelledby="tablepress-922-name" aria-describedby="tablepress-922-description">
<thead>
<tr class="row-1">
	<th class="column-1">Market Income Percentile</th><th class="column-2">2025, Conventional</th><th class="column-3">2026, Conventional</th><th class="column-4">2034, Conventional</th><th class="column-5">2034, Dynamic</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody class="row-striping row-hover">
<tr class="row-2">
	<td class="column-1">0% - 20%</td><td class="column-2">0.8%</td><td class="column-3">1.6%</td><td class="column-4">-0.6%</td><td class="column-5">0.1%</td>
</tr>
<tr class="row-3">
	<td class="column-1">20% - 40%</td><td class="column-2">2.5%</td><td class="column-3">4.2%</td><td class="column-4">1.1%</td><td class="column-5">1.7%</td>
</tr>
<tr class="row-4">
	<td class="column-1">40% - 60%</td><td class="column-2">2.6%</td><td class="column-3">4.3%</td><td class="column-4">2.0%</td><td class="column-5">2.7%</td>
</tr>
<tr class="row-5">
	<td class="column-1">60% - 80%</td><td class="column-2">2.3%</td><td class="column-3">4.3%</td><td class="column-4">2.3%</td><td class="column-5">2.9%</td>
</tr>
<tr class="row-6">
	<td class="column-1">80% - 100%</td><td class="column-2">1.9%</td><td class="column-3">3.9%</td><td class="column-4">2.5%</td><td class="column-5">3.1%</td>
</tr>
<tr class="row-7">
	<td class="column-1"></td><td class="column-2"></td><td class="column-3"></td><td class="column-4"></td><td class="column-5"></td>
</tr>
<tr class="row-8">
	<td class="column-1">80% - 90%</td><td class="column-2">2.1%</td><td class="column-3">3.9%</td><td class="column-4">2.3%</td><td class="column-5">2.9%</td>
</tr>
<tr class="row-9">
	<td class="column-1">90% - 95%</td><td class="column-2">1.6%</td><td class="column-3">3.8%</td><td class="column-4">2.8%</td><td class="column-5">3.4%</td>
</tr>
<tr class="row-10">
	<td class="column-1">95% - 99%</td><td class="column-2">1.6%</td><td class="column-3">4.1%</td><td class="column-4">2.9%</td><td class="column-5">3.6%</td>
</tr>
<tr class="row-11">
	<td class="column-1">99% - 100%</td><td class="column-2">2.1%</td><td class="column-3">3.8%</td><td class="column-4">1.9%</td><td class="column-5">2.6%</td>
</tr>
<tr class="row-12">
	<td class="column-1">Total</td><td class="column-2">2.1%</td><td class="column-3">4.0%</td><td class="column-4">2.3%</td><td class="column-5">2.9%</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<span id="tablepress-922-description" class="tablepress-table-description tablepress-table-description-id-922">Note: Market income includes adjusted gross income (AGI) plus 1) tax-exempt interest, 2) non-taxable social security income, 3) the employer share of payroll taxes, 4) imputed corporate tax liability, 5) employer-sponsored health insurance and other fringe benefits, 6) taxpayers’ imputed contributions to defined-contribution pension plans. Market income levels are adjusted for the number of exemptions reported on each return to make tax units more comparable. After-tax income is market income less: <span style="display: inline-block;"><span class="glossary-term"><a href="https://taxfoundation.org/taxedu/glossary/individual-income-tax/">individual income tax</a><cite class="glossary-term-summary">An individual income tax (or personal income tax) is levied on the wages, salaries, investments, or other forms of income an individual or household earns. The U.S. imposes a progressive income tax where rates increase with income. The Federal Income Tax was established in 1913 with the ratification of the 16th Amendment. Though barely 100 years old, individual income taxes are the largest source</cite></span>,</span> <span style="display: inline-block;"><span class="glossary-term"><a href="https://taxfoundation.org/taxedu/glossary/corporate-income-tax-cit/">corporate income tax</a><cite class="glossary-term-summary">A corporate income tax (CIT) is levied by federal and state governments on business profits. Many companies are not subject to the CIT because they are taxed as pass-through businesses, with income reportable under the individual income tax.</cite></span>,</span> payroll taxes, estate and gift tax, custom duties, and excise taxes. The 2026 income break points by percentile are: 20%-$17,735; 40%-$38,572; 60%-$73,905; 80%-$130,661; 90%-$188,849; 95%-$266,968; 99%-$611,194. Tax units with negative market income and non-filers are excluded from the percentile groups but included in the totals. <br>
<br>
Source: Tax Foundation General Equilibrium Model, May 2025 </span>
<!-- #tablepress-922 from cache -->
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        <a href="https://taxfoundation.org/wp-content/uploads/2023/08/GWattson.png" target="_blank">
      <img width="300" height="300" src="https://taxfoundation.org/wp-content/uploads/2023/08/GWattson-300x300.png" class="attachment-medium size-medium wp-post-image" alt="Garrett Watson Tax Foundation" decoding="async" fetchpriority="high" srcset="https://taxfoundation.org/wp-content/uploads/2023/08/GWattson-300x300.png 300w, https://taxfoundation.org/wp-content/uploads/2023/08/GWattson-150x150.png 150w, https://taxfoundation.org/wp-content/uploads/2023/08/GWattson-768x768.png 768w, https://taxfoundation.org/wp-content/uploads/2023/08/GWattson.png 1000w" sizes="(max-width: 300px) 100vw, 300px" />    </a>
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      <div class="type">Expert</div><h3><a href="https://taxfoundation.org/about-us/staff/garrett-watson/" rel="bookmark">Garrett Watson</a></h3><div class="position">Vice President of Federal Tax Policy</div>    </div>
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    <p>Garrett Watson is Vice President of Federal Tax Policy with Tax Foundation&#8217;s Center for Federal Tax Policy. His work has been featured in The Washington Post, The Atlantic, Politico, the Associated Press and other major outlets.</p>
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      <li><a href="https://taxfoundation.org/about-us/staff/garrett-watson/" aria-label="View Garrett Watson Profile"><i class="fa-solid fa-address-card" aria-hidden="true"></i></a></li><li><a href="https://taxfoundation.wufoo.com/forms/speaker-request-form/" aria-label="Request as Speaker"><i class="fa-solid fa-comment-dots" aria-hidden="true"></i></a></li><li><a href="mailto:gwatson@taxfoundation.org" aria-label="Contact Garrett Watson"><i class="fa-solid fa-envelope" aria-hidden="true"></i></a></li><li><a href="https://twitter.com/GS_Watson" aria-label="Follow Garrett Watson on X (formerly Twitter)"><i class="fa-brands fa-x-twitter" aria-hidden="true"></i></a></li><li><a href="https://www.linkedin.com/in/garrett-watson/" aria-label="Follow Garrett Watson on LinkedIn"><i class="fa-brands fa-linkedin" aria-hidden="true"></i></a></li><li><a href="https://gwatson.substack.com/" aria-label="Follow Garrett Watson on Substack"><svg aria-hidden="true" style="height: 0.95em; vertical-align: -0.11em;" viewBox="0 0 21 24" fill="currentColor" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><path d="M20.9991 5.40625H0V8.24275H20.9991V5.40625Z"></path><path d="M0 10.8125V24.0004L10.4991 18.1107L21 24.0004V10.8125H0Z"></path><path d="M20.9991 0H0V2.83603H20.9991V0Z"></path></svg></a></li>    </ul>
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      <img width="300" height="300" src="https://taxfoundation.org/wp-content/uploads/2023/08/eYork-300x300.png" class="attachment-medium size-medium wp-post-image" alt="Erica York Tax Foundation" decoding="async" srcset="https://taxfoundation.org/wp-content/uploads/2023/08/eYork-300x300.png 300w, https://taxfoundation.org/wp-content/uploads/2023/08/eYork-150x150.png 150w, https://taxfoundation.org/wp-content/uploads/2023/08/eYork-768x768.png 768w, https://taxfoundation.org/wp-content/uploads/2023/08/eYork.png 1000w" sizes="(max-width: 300px) 100vw, 300px" />    </a>
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      <div class="type">Expert</div><h3><a href="https://taxfoundation.org/about-us/staff/erica-york/" rel="bookmark">Erica York</a></h3><div class="position">Senior Economist</div>    </div>
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    <div class="staff-card__body">
    <p>Erica York is Senior Economist with Tax Foundation’s Center for Federal Tax Policy. Her analysis has been featured in The Wall Street Journal, The Washington Post, Politico, and other national and international media outlets.</p>
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      <img width="300" height="300" src="https://taxfoundation.org/wp-content/uploads/2023/08/AMuresianu-300x300.png" class="attachment-medium size-medium wp-post-image" alt="Alex Muresianu Tax Foundation" decoding="async" loading="lazy" srcset="https://taxfoundation.org/wp-content/uploads/2023/08/AMuresianu-300x300.png 300w, https://taxfoundation.org/wp-content/uploads/2023/08/AMuresianu-1024x1024.png 1024w, https://taxfoundation.org/wp-content/uploads/2023/08/AMuresianu-150x150.png 150w, https://taxfoundation.org/wp-content/uploads/2023/08/AMuresianu-768x768.png 768w, https://taxfoundation.org/wp-content/uploads/2023/08/AMuresianu-1536x1536.png 1536w, https://taxfoundation.org/wp-content/uploads/2023/08/AMuresianu-2048x2048.png 2048w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 300px) 100vw, 300px" />    </a>
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      <div class="type-spacer"></div><h3><a href="https://taxfoundation.org/about-us/staff/alex-muresianu/" rel="bookmark">Alex Muresianu</a></h3><div class="position">Senior Policy Analyst</div>    </div>
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    <div class="staff-card__body">
    <p>Alex Muresianu was a Senior Policy Analyst at the Tax Foundation, focused on federal tax policy. Previously working on the federal team as an intern in the summer of 2018 and as a research assistant in summer 2020. He attended Tufts University, graduating with a degree in economics and minors in finance and political science.</p>
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      <img width="300" height="300" src="https://taxfoundation.org/wp-content/uploads/2023/08/ADurante-300x300.png" class="attachment-medium size-medium wp-post-image" alt="Alex Durante Tax Foundation" decoding="async" loading="lazy" srcset="https://taxfoundation.org/wp-content/uploads/2023/08/ADurante-300x300.png 300w, https://taxfoundation.org/wp-content/uploads/2023/08/ADurante-150x150.png 150w, https://taxfoundation.org/wp-content/uploads/2023/08/ADurante-768x768.png 768w, https://taxfoundation.org/wp-content/uploads/2023/08/ADurante.png 1000w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 300px) 100vw, 300px" />    </a>
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      <div class="type">Expert</div><h3><a href="https://taxfoundation.org/about-us/staff/alex-durante/" rel="bookmark">Alex Durante</a></h3><div class="position">Senior Economist</div>    </div>
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    <div class="staff-card__body">
    <p>Alex Durante is a Senior Economist at the Tax Foundation, working on federal tax policy and model development. Alex worked as a research assistant at the Federal Reserve Board and served as a staff economist on the Council of Economic Advisers.</p>
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        <a href="https://taxfoundation.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/HLi-1.png" target="_blank">
      <img width="300" height="300" src="https://taxfoundation.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/HLi-1-300x300.png" class="attachment-medium size-medium wp-post-image" alt="Huaqun Li Tax Foundation" decoding="async" loading="lazy" srcset="https://taxfoundation.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/HLi-1-300x300.png 300w, https://taxfoundation.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/HLi-1-150x150.png 150w, https://taxfoundation.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/HLi-1-768x768.png 768w, https://taxfoundation.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/HLi-1.png 1000w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 300px) 100vw, 300px" />    </a>
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      <div class="type">Expert</div><h3><a href="https://taxfoundation.org/about-us/staff/huaqun-li/" rel="bookmark">Huaqun Li</a></h3><div class="position">Senior Economist, Director of Modeling Projects</div>    </div>
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    <div class="staff-card__body">
    <p>Dr. Huaqun Li is Senior Economist, Director of Modeling Projects at the Tax Foundation. She focuses on developing and maintaining the Foundation’s Taxes and Growth Model, which models the budgetary and economic effects of changes to federal tax policy.</p>
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        <a href="https://taxfoundation.org/wp-content/uploads/2023/08/PVanNess.png" target="_blank">
      <img width="300" height="300" src="https://taxfoundation.org/wp-content/uploads/2023/08/PVanNess-300x300.png" class="attachment-medium size-medium wp-post-image" alt="Peter Van Ness Tax Foundation" decoding="async" loading="lazy" srcset="https://taxfoundation.org/wp-content/uploads/2023/08/PVanNess-300x300.png 300w, https://taxfoundation.org/wp-content/uploads/2023/08/PVanNess-150x150.png 150w, https://taxfoundation.org/wp-content/uploads/2023/08/PVanNess-768x768.png 768w, https://taxfoundation.org/wp-content/uploads/2023/08/PVanNess.png 1000w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 300px) 100vw, 300px" />    </a>
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      <div class="type-spacer"></div><h3><a href="https://taxfoundation.org/about-us/staff/peter-van-ness/" rel="bookmark">Peter Van Ness</a></h3><div class="position">Research Software Developer</div>    </div>
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    <div class="staff-card__body">
    <p>Peter Van Ness is a Research Software Developer at the Tax Foundation working on federal tax policy and model development. Peter previously worked as a research assistant at another think tank and as a data analyst at a consulting firm.</p>
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      <li><a href="https://taxfoundation.org/about-us/staff/peter-van-ness/" aria-label="View Peter Van Ness Profile"><i class="fa-solid fa-address-card" aria-hidden="true"></i></a></li><li><a href="https://taxfoundation.wufoo.com/forms/speaker-request-form/" aria-label="Request as Speaker"><i class="fa-solid fa-comment-dots" aria-hidden="true"></i></a></li>    </ul>
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      <img width="300" height="300" src="https://taxfoundation.org/wp-content/uploads/2025/04/Aleksei-1-300x300.png" class="attachment-medium size-medium wp-post-image" alt="Aleksei Shilov Tax Foundation Research Software Developer" decoding="async" loading="lazy" srcset="https://taxfoundation.org/wp-content/uploads/2025/04/Aleksei-1-300x300.png 300w, https://taxfoundation.org/wp-content/uploads/2025/04/Aleksei-1-150x150.png 150w, https://taxfoundation.org/wp-content/uploads/2025/04/Aleksei-1-768x768.png 768w, https://taxfoundation.org/wp-content/uploads/2025/04/Aleksei-1.png 1000w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 300px) 100vw, 300px" />    </a>
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      <div class="type-spacer"></div><h3><a href="https://taxfoundation.org/about-us/staff/aleksei-shilov/" rel="bookmark">Aleksei Shilov</a></h3><div class="position">Research Software Developer</div>    </div>
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    <div class="staff-card__body">
    <p>Aleksei Shilov is a Research Software developer at the Tax Foundation working on economic model development and federal tax policy. Aleksei joined the Tax Foundation as an intern in January 2025. He holds a B.S. in computer science and a minor in economics from Northeastern University and is currently based in Boston, MA.</p>
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        <a href="https://taxfoundation.org/wp-content/uploads/2025/02/wMcBride-2.png" target="_blank">
      <img width="300" height="300" src="https://taxfoundation.org/wp-content/uploads/2025/02/wMcBride-2-300x300.png" class="attachment-medium size-medium wp-post-image" alt="William McBride or Will McBride Tax Foundation" decoding="async" loading="lazy" srcset="https://taxfoundation.org/wp-content/uploads/2025/02/wMcBride-2-300x300.png 300w, https://taxfoundation.org/wp-content/uploads/2025/02/wMcBride-2-150x150.png 150w, https://taxfoundation.org/wp-content/uploads/2025/02/wMcBride-2-768x768.png 768w, https://taxfoundation.org/wp-content/uploads/2025/02/wMcBride-2.png 1000w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 300px) 100vw, 300px" />    </a>
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      <div class="type">Expert</div><h3><a href="https://taxfoundation.org/about-us/staff/william-mcbride/" rel="bookmark">William McBride</a></h3><div class="position">Chief Economist & Stephen J. Entin Fellow in Economics</div>    </div>
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    <div class="staff-card__body">
    <p>Dr. William McBride is the Chief Economist &#038; Stephen J. Entin Fellow in Economics at the Tax Foundation, where he oversees major research projects primarily related to reforming the federal tax code, advancing sound tax policy, and improving the federal government’s fiscal outlook.</p>
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    <li data-aos="fade-right" data-date="June 6, 2025">Updated modeling and analysis of the House-passed “One, Big, Beautiful” reconciliation bill </li><li data-aos="fade-right" data-date="May 23, 2025">Updated analysis of the House-passed “One, Big, Beautiful” reconciliation bill on May 22, 2025.</li>  </ol>
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<span class="post-reading-time">5 min read</span>  </div>

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  <div class="widget widget--topics"><h2>Topics</h2><ul><li><a href="https://taxfoundation.org/topics/business-tax-compliance-and-complexity/">Business Tax Compliance and Complexity</a></li><li><a href="https://taxfoundation.org/topics/business-tax-expenditures-credits-and-deductions/">Business Tax Expenditures, Credits, and Deductions</a></li><li><a href="https://taxfoundation.org/topics/business-taxes/">Business Taxes</a></li><li><a href="https://taxfoundation.org/topics/cost-recovery/">Cost Recovery</a></li><li><a href="https://taxfoundation.org/topics/environmental-energy-and-transportation-taxes/">Environmental, Energy, and Transportation Taxes</a></li><li><a href="https://taxfoundation.org/topics/excise-taxes/">Excise Taxes</a></li><li><a href="https://taxfoundation.org/topics/high-income-taxpayers-progressivity-and-inequality/">High-Income Taxpayers, Progressivity, and Inequality</a></li><li><a href="https://taxfoundation.org/topics/individual-and-consumption-taxes/">Individual and Consumption Taxes</a></li><li><a href="https://taxfoundation.org/topics/individual-income-and-payroll-taxes/">Individual Income and Payroll Taxes</a></li><li><a href="https://taxfoundation.org/topics/individual-tax-compliance-and-complexity/">Individual Tax Compliance and Complexity</a></li><li><a href="https://taxfoundation.org/topics/individual-tax-expenditures-credits-and-deductions/">Individual Tax Expenditures, Credits, and Deductions</a></li><li><a href="https://taxfoundation.org/topics/modeling-tax-proposals/">Modeling Tax Proposals</a></li><li><a href="https://taxfoundation.org/topics/small-business-taxes/">Small Business Taxes</a></li></ul></div>
  <div class="widget widget--tags"><h2 class="sr-only">Tags</h2><ul><li><b>Tags:</b></li><li><a href="https://taxfoundation.org/tags/100-percent-bonus-depreciation-full-expensing/">100 Percent Bonus Depreciation (Full Expensing)</a></li><li><a href="https://taxfoundation.org/tags/base-erosion-and-anti-abuse-tax-beat/">Base Erosion and Anti-Abuse Tax (BEAT)</a></li><li><a href="https://taxfoundation.org/tags/budget-reconciliation/">Budget Reconciliation</a></li><li><a href="https://taxfoundation.org/tags/child-tax-credit-ctc/">Child Tax Credit (CTC)</a></li><li><a href="https://taxfoundation.org/tags/debt-and-interest-rates/">Debt and Interest Rates</a></li><li><a href="https://taxfoundation.org/tags/donald-trump/">Donald Trump</a></li><li><a href="https://taxfoundation.org/tags/global-intangible-low-tax-income-gilti/">Global Intangible Low Tax Income (GILTI)</a></li><li><a href="https://taxfoundation.org/tags/inflation-reduction-act-ira/">Inflation Reduction Act (IRA)</a></li><li><a href="https://taxfoundation.org/tags/inflation-indexing/">Inflation-Indexing</a></li><li><a href="https://taxfoundation.org/tags/manufacturing/">Manufacturing</a></li><li><a href="https://taxfoundation.org/tags/one-big-beautiful-bill-act-obbb/">One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA)</a></li><li><a href="https://taxfoundation.org/tags/qualified-business-income-deduction-sec-199a/">Qualified Business Income Deduction (Sec. 199A)</a></li><li><a href="https://taxfoundation.org/tags/research-and-development-rd/">Research and Development (R&amp;D)</a></li><li><a href="https://taxfoundation.org/tags/state-and-local-tax-salt-deduction/">State and Local Tax (SALT) Deduction</a></li><li><a href="https://taxfoundation.org/tags/tax-cuts-and-jobs-act-tcja/">Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA)</a></li></ul></div>
  <div class="widget widget--locations"><h2 class="sr-only">Locations</h2><ul><li><b>Locations:</b></li><li><a href="https://taxfoundation.org/location/united-states/">United States</a></li></ul></div>
  <div class="widget widget--authors"><h2>Authors</h2><ul><li>
<div class="staff-card" >
  <div class="staff-card__header">
        <a href="https://taxfoundation.org/wp-content/uploads/2023/08/GWattson.png" target="_blank">
      <img width="300" height="300" src="https://taxfoundation.org/wp-content/uploads/2023/08/GWattson-300x300.png" class="attachment-medium size-medium wp-post-image" alt="Garrett Watson Tax Foundation" decoding="async" loading="lazy" srcset="https://taxfoundation.org/wp-content/uploads/2023/08/GWattson-300x300.png 300w, https://taxfoundation.org/wp-content/uploads/2023/08/GWattson-150x150.png 150w, https://taxfoundation.org/wp-content/uploads/2023/08/GWattson-768x768.png 768w, https://taxfoundation.org/wp-content/uploads/2023/08/GWattson.png 1000w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 300px) 100vw, 300px" />    </a>
        <div>
      <div class="type">Expert</div><h3><a href="https://taxfoundation.org/about-us/staff/garrett-watson/" rel="bookmark">Garrett Watson</a></h3><div class="position">Vice President of Federal Tax Policy</div>    </div>
  </div>

  
  </div></li><li>
<div class="staff-card" >
  <div class="staff-card__header">
        <a href="https://taxfoundation.org/wp-content/uploads/2023/08/eYork.png" target="_blank">
      <img width="300" height="300" src="https://taxfoundation.org/wp-content/uploads/2023/08/eYork-300x300.png" class="attachment-medium size-medium wp-post-image" alt="Erica York Tax Foundation" decoding="async" loading="lazy" srcset="https://taxfoundation.org/wp-content/uploads/2023/08/eYork-300x300.png 300w, https://taxfoundation.org/wp-content/uploads/2023/08/eYork-150x150.png 150w, https://taxfoundation.org/wp-content/uploads/2023/08/eYork-768x768.png 768w, https://taxfoundation.org/wp-content/uploads/2023/08/eYork.png 1000w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 300px) 100vw, 300px" />    </a>
        <div>
      <div class="type">Expert</div><h3><a href="https://taxfoundation.org/about-us/staff/erica-york/" rel="bookmark">Erica York</a></h3><div class="position">Senior Economist</div>    </div>
  </div>

  
  </div></li><li>
<div class="staff-card" >
  <div class="staff-card__header">
        <a href="https://taxfoundation.org/wp-content/uploads/2023/08/AMuresianu.png" target="_blank">
      <img width="300" height="300" src="https://taxfoundation.org/wp-content/uploads/2023/08/AMuresianu-300x300.png" class="attachment-medium size-medium wp-post-image" alt="Alex Muresianu Tax Foundation" decoding="async" loading="lazy" srcset="https://taxfoundation.org/wp-content/uploads/2023/08/AMuresianu-300x300.png 300w, https://taxfoundation.org/wp-content/uploads/2023/08/AMuresianu-1024x1024.png 1024w, https://taxfoundation.org/wp-content/uploads/2023/08/AMuresianu-150x150.png 150w, https://taxfoundation.org/wp-content/uploads/2023/08/AMuresianu-768x768.png 768w, https://taxfoundation.org/wp-content/uploads/2023/08/AMuresianu-1536x1536.png 1536w, https://taxfoundation.org/wp-content/uploads/2023/08/AMuresianu-2048x2048.png 2048w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 300px) 100vw, 300px" />    </a>
        <div>
      <div class="type-spacer"></div><h3><a href="https://taxfoundation.org/about-us/staff/alex-muresianu/" rel="bookmark">Alex Muresianu</a></h3><div class="position">Senior Policy Analyst</div>    </div>
  </div>

  
  </div></li><li>
<div class="staff-card" >
  <div class="staff-card__header">
        <a href="https://taxfoundation.org/wp-content/uploads/2023/08/ADurante.png" target="_blank">
      <img width="300" height="300" src="https://taxfoundation.org/wp-content/uploads/2023/08/ADurante-300x300.png" class="attachment-medium size-medium wp-post-image" alt="Alex Durante Tax Foundation" decoding="async" loading="lazy" srcset="https://taxfoundation.org/wp-content/uploads/2023/08/ADurante-300x300.png 300w, https://taxfoundation.org/wp-content/uploads/2023/08/ADurante-150x150.png 150w, https://taxfoundation.org/wp-content/uploads/2023/08/ADurante-768x768.png 768w, https://taxfoundation.org/wp-content/uploads/2023/08/ADurante.png 1000w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 300px) 100vw, 300px" />    </a>
        <div>
      <div class="type">Expert</div><h3><a href="https://taxfoundation.org/about-us/staff/alex-durante/" rel="bookmark">Alex Durante</a></h3><div class="position">Senior Economist</div>    </div>
  </div>

  
  </div></li><li>
<div class="staff-card" >
  <div class="staff-card__header">
        <a href="https://taxfoundation.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/HLi-1.png" target="_blank">
      <img width="300" height="300" src="https://taxfoundation.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/HLi-1-300x300.png" class="attachment-medium size-medium wp-post-image" alt="Huaqun Li Tax Foundation" decoding="async" loading="lazy" srcset="https://taxfoundation.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/HLi-1-300x300.png 300w, https://taxfoundation.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/HLi-1-150x150.png 150w, https://taxfoundation.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/HLi-1-768x768.png 768w, https://taxfoundation.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/HLi-1.png 1000w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 300px) 100vw, 300px" />    </a>
        <div>
      <div class="type">Expert</div><h3><a href="https://taxfoundation.org/about-us/staff/huaqun-li/" rel="bookmark">Huaqun Li</a></h3><div class="position">Senior Economist, Director of Modeling Projects</div>    </div>
  </div>

  
  </div></li><li>
<div class="staff-card" >
  <div class="staff-card__header">
        <a href="https://taxfoundation.org/wp-content/uploads/2023/08/PVanNess.png" target="_blank">
      <img width="300" height="300" src="https://taxfoundation.org/wp-content/uploads/2023/08/PVanNess-300x300.png" class="attachment-medium size-medium wp-post-image" alt="Peter Van Ness Tax Foundation" decoding="async" loading="lazy" srcset="https://taxfoundation.org/wp-content/uploads/2023/08/PVanNess-300x300.png 300w, https://taxfoundation.org/wp-content/uploads/2023/08/PVanNess-150x150.png 150w, https://taxfoundation.org/wp-content/uploads/2023/08/PVanNess-768x768.png 768w, https://taxfoundation.org/wp-content/uploads/2023/08/PVanNess.png 1000w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 300px) 100vw, 300px" />    </a>
        <div>
      <div class="type-spacer"></div><h3><a href="https://taxfoundation.org/about-us/staff/peter-van-ness/" rel="bookmark">Peter Van Ness</a></h3><div class="position">Research Software Developer</div>    </div>
  </div>

  
  </div></li><li>
<div class="staff-card" >
  <div class="staff-card__header">
        <a href="https://taxfoundation.org/wp-content/uploads/2025/04/Aleksei-1.png" target="_blank">
      <img width="300" height="300" src="https://taxfoundation.org/wp-content/uploads/2025/04/Aleksei-1-300x300.png" class="attachment-medium size-medium wp-post-image" alt="Aleksei Shilov Tax Foundation Research Software Developer" decoding="async" loading="lazy" srcset="https://taxfoundation.org/wp-content/uploads/2025/04/Aleksei-1-300x300.png 300w, https://taxfoundation.org/wp-content/uploads/2025/04/Aleksei-1-150x150.png 150w, https://taxfoundation.org/wp-content/uploads/2025/04/Aleksei-1-768x768.png 768w, https://taxfoundation.org/wp-content/uploads/2025/04/Aleksei-1.png 1000w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 300px) 100vw, 300px" />    </a>
        <div>
      <div class="type-spacer"></div><h3><a href="https://taxfoundation.org/about-us/staff/aleksei-shilov/" rel="bookmark">Aleksei Shilov</a></h3><div class="position">Research Software Developer</div>    </div>
  </div>

  
  </div></li><li>
<div class="staff-card" >
  <div class="staff-card__header">
        <a href="https://taxfoundation.org/wp-content/uploads/2025/02/wMcBride-2.png" target="_blank">
      <img width="300" height="300" src="https://taxfoundation.org/wp-content/uploads/2025/02/wMcBride-2-300x300.png" class="attachment-medium size-medium wp-post-image" alt="William McBride or Will McBride Tax Foundation" decoding="async" loading="lazy" srcset="https://taxfoundation.org/wp-content/uploads/2025/02/wMcBride-2-300x300.png 300w, https://taxfoundation.org/wp-content/uploads/2025/02/wMcBride-2-150x150.png 150w, https://taxfoundation.org/wp-content/uploads/2025/02/wMcBride-2-768x768.png 768w, https://taxfoundation.org/wp-content/uploads/2025/02/wMcBride-2.png 1000w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 300px) 100vw, 300px" />    </a>
        <div>
      <div class="type">Expert</div><h3><a href="https://taxfoundation.org/about-us/staff/william-mcbride/" rel="bookmark">William McBride</a></h3><div class="position">Chief Economist & Stephen J. Entin Fellow in Economics</div>    </div>
  </div>

  
  </div></li></ul></div>
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