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TPPF/Overton August 2026 toplines
Overton Insights · 2026-08-26
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Overton Insights/Texas Public Policy Foundation
Texas Toplines and Demographic
Variables
Geography Texas
Combined interviews 1,167 respondents across both source files
Field dates August 24, 2026 to August 26, 2026
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Weighted Toplines
Weighted percentages for every substantive question in the combined Texas poll
Q1. Trump Job Approval
Do you approve or disapprove of the way Donald Trump is handling his job as President?
Response option Weighted %
Strongly approve 30.1%
Somewhat approve 14.1%
Somewhat disapprove 7.3%
Strongly disapprove 48.5%
Q2. RNC Midterm Convention Impact
The Republican National Committee is holding a midterm convention in Dallas this September, ahead of
the November elections. How much of an impact, if any, do you think this convention will have on the
outcome of the midterm elections?
Response option Weighted %
A great deal of impact 16.3%
Some impact 39.1%
Not much impact 28.9%
No impact at all 15.7%
Q3. Tariffs Approval
Do you approve or disapprove of the tariffs the Trump administration has placed on goods imported from
other countries?
Response option Weighted %
Strongly approve 30.2%
Somewhat approve 15.7%
Somewhat disapprove 8.5%
Strongly disapprove 45.6%
Q4. Generic Congressional Ballot
If the election for U.S. Congress were held today, would you vote for the Republican candidate or the
Democratic candidate in your district?
Response option Weighted %
The Republican candidate 46.4%
The Democratic candidate 43.6%
Someone else 10.0%
Q5. U.S. Senate Actual Ballot
If the election for U.S. Senate were held today, who would you vote for?
Response option Weighted %
Ken Paxton, the Republican 43.4%
James Talarico, the Democrat 44.0%
Undecided 12.6%
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Q6. U.S. Senate Leaner
If you had to choose today, which Senate candidate do you lean toward the most?
Response option Weighted %
Ken Paxton, the Republican 52.6%
James Talarico, the Democrat 47.4%
Cumulative with leaners
Response option Weighted %
Ken Paxton, the Republican 50.0%
James Talarico, the Democrat 50.0%
Q7. U.S. Senate Hypothetical: Cornyn
Now suppose instead that these were the candidates. If the election for U.S. Senate were held today, who
would you vote for?
Response option Weighted %
John Cornyn, the Republican 42.7%
James Talarico, the Democrat 43.6%
Undecided 13.7%
Q8. U.S. Senate Hypothetical: O'Rourke
Suppose instead that these were the candidates. If the election for U.S. Senate were held today, who
would you vote for?
Response option Weighted %
Ken Paxton, the Republican 48.9%
Beto O'Rourke, the Democrat 42.8%
Undecided 8.3%
Q9. U.S. Senate Hypothetical: Crockett
Suppose instead that these were the candidates. If the election for U.S. Senate were held today, who
would you vote for?
Response option Weighted %
Ken Paxton, the Republican 48.9%
Jasmine Crockett, the Democrat 42.8%
Undecided 8.3%
Q10. Governor Actual Ballot
If the election for Governor were held today, who would you vote for?
Response option Weighted %
Greg Abbott, the Republican 46.9%
Gina Hinojosa, the Democrat 45.8%
Undecided 7.3%
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Q11. Governor Leaner
If you had to choose today, which candidate do you lean toward the most?
Response option Weighted %
Greg Abbott, the Republican 58.5%
Gina Hinojosa, the Democrat 41.5%
Cumulative with leaners
Response option Weighted %
Greg Abbott, the Republican 51.2%
Gina Hinojosa, the Democrat 48.8%
Q12. 2028 Primary Participation
Do you plan to vote in the 2028 Republican or Democratic Primary?
Response option Weighted %
Republican Primary 57.1%
Democratic Primary 32.4%
Neither 10.5%
Q13. 2028 Republican Presidential Primary
If the 2028 Republican primary for President were held today, who would you vote for?
Response option Weighted %
Marco Rubio 29.5%
J.D. Vance 28.8%
Ron DeSantis 11.2%
Ted Cruz 6.5%
Tucker Carlson 5.9%
Donald Trump Jr. 4.5%
Would not vote 13.6%
Q14. 2028 Democratic Presidential Primary
If the 2028 Democratic primary for President were held today, who would you vote for?
Response option Weighted %
Kamala Harris 28.4%
Pete Buttigieg 14.2%
Jon Ossoff 11.6%
Gavin Newsom 11.5%
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez 10.6%
Mark Kelly 9.4%
Josh Shapiro 3.9%
Andy Beshear 0.9%
Rahm Emanuel 0.7%
Would not vote 8.8%
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Q15. Texas Political Identity
Politically speaking, which of the following best describes Texas today?
Response option Weighted %
A red state, meaning reliably Republican 57.0%
A purple state, meaning competitive between the 38.3%
two parties
A blue state, meaning reliably Democratic 4.7%
Q16. Immigration Handling
Do you approve or disapprove of the way the Trump administration is handling immigration?
Response option Weighted %
Strongly approve 41.4%
Somewhat approve 8.3%
Somewhat disapprove 5.6%
Strongly disapprove 44.2%
Unsure 0.5%
Q17. Most Obnoxious College Fan Base
Just for fun: which of the following college fan bases would you say is the most obnoxious?
Response option Weighted %
Texas A&M University 29.7%
University of Texas 27.4%
University of Houston 11.2%
Texas Tech University 10.3%
Baylor University 9.6%
Southern Methodist University (SMU) 6.7%
Texas Christian University (TCU) 5.1%
Q18. License Plate Reader Cameras
Do you support or oppose local government's use of automatic license plate reader cameras, such as
Flock cameras, at public intersections?
Response option Weighted %
Strongly support 13.6%
Somewhat support 14.5%
Somewhat oppose 12.6%
Strongly oppose 51.0%
Unsure 8.3%
Q19. Texas Power Grid In Extreme Cold
How confident are you that the Texas electric grid can reliably provide power during periods of extreme
cold?
Response option Weighted %
Very confident 11.4%
Somewhat confident 28.9%
Not too confident 28.3%
Not at all confident 28.8%
Unsure 2.6%
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Q20. Texas Power Grid In Extreme Heat
How confident are you that the Texas electric grid can reliably provide power during periods of extreme
heat?
Response option Weighted %
Very confident 15.2%
Somewhat confident 33.4%
Not too confident 24.9%
Not at all confident 22.9%
Unsure 3.6%
Q21. Local Data Center Bans
Some communities have begun instituting bans on building new data centers. Do you support or oppose
your local community banning data centers?
Response option Weighted %
Strongly support 44.3%
Somewhat support 10.4%
Somewhat oppose 15.2%
Strongly oppose 22.1%
Unsure 8.0%
Q22. Data Centers With Safeguards
Would you support or oppose allowing new data centers to be built in your community as long as certain
safeguards are in place, such as requiring them to fund their own electric infrastructure, restricting water
usage, and limiting noise pollution?
Response option Weighted %
Strongly support 17.6%
Somewhat support 20.3%
Somewhat oppose 12.9%
Strongly oppose 41.3%
Unsure 7.9%
Q23. Election Security In Texas
Are you confident that elections in Texas are secure against voter fraud?
Response option Weighted %
Yes, very confident 28.9%
Yes, somewhat confident 33.0%
No, not too confident 18.1%
No, not at all confident 16.5%
Unsure 3.5%
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Q24. Immigration Assimilation View
Which of the following comes closest to your view on how immigrants should approach life in the United
States?
Response option Weighted %
Fully adopt U.S. customs 24.8%
Mostly adopt U.S. customs 41.9%
Adopt some, keep most traditions 23.3%
Maintain own customs with little adaptation 4.3%
Unsure 5.7%
Demographic Toplines
Weighted respondent profile for the key Texas break variables used in the report
Primary
2028 primary participation profile.
Category Weighted %
Republican Primary 57.1%
Democratic Primary 32.4%
Neither 10.5%
Gender
Weighted respondent profile by gender.
Category Weighted %
Male 49.0%
Female 51.0%
Age Group
Weighted respondent profile by age group.
Category Weighted %
18-29 8.0%
30-44 17.0%
45-54 19.0%
55-64 23.0%
65 and over 33.0%
Education Category
Weighted respondent profile by education.
Category Weighted %
High school or less 27.0%
Some college 30.0%
Bachelor's degree 26.0%
Post graduate 17.0%
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Race
Weighted respondent profile by race.
Category Weighted %
White 61.0%
Black 9.0%
Hispanic 22.0%
Asian / Other 8.0%
Living Situation
Weighted respondent profile by living situation.
Category Weighted %
With spouse / partner 34.4%
With children 21.5%
Multigenerational household 3.8%
Alone 12.3%
With parents 3.2%
With roommates 1.2%
Prefer not to answer / Other 8.5%
No answer 15.1%
Time in Texas
Weighted respondent profile by time in Texas.
Category Weighted %
Born in Texas and lived here all my life 51.9%
Lived here more than 10 years 42.6%
Lived here between 3 and 10 years 4.4%
Less than 3 years 1.1%
Political Philosophy
Weighted respondent profile by political philosophy.
Category Weighted %
Very conservative 26.0%
Conservative 27.0%
Moderate 28.0%
Liberal 12.0%
Very liberal 7.0%
Methodology note
This report combines responses for 1,167 total interviews in Texas and weights the data. The responses
were gathered by text-to-web surveys. The weighting was done using iterative weighting.
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