The federal funds rate · June 2026 decision
The June 17 decision looked like calm: a 12–0 hold, a four-paragraph statement. The projections underneath flipped from a cut to a hike, and six weeks later the dissents arrived.
The decision
The Federal Open Market Committee held the federal funds target range at 3‑1/2 to 3‑3/4 percent on June 17, by a 12–0 vote. It was Kevin Warsh's first meeting as chair.
Statement: “The Federal Open Market Committee approved the following statement for release by a 12–0 vote: The Committee decided to maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 3-1/2 to 3-3/4 percent, in support of the Federal Reserve's dual mandate.” Voting: Warsh, Williams, Barr, Bowman, Cook, Hammack, Jefferson, Kashkari, Logan, Paulson, Powell, Waller. Voting against: none (minutes). statement · minutes
The statement itself was the news as much as the decision: dramatically shorter than its predecessors, stripped of the language markets had read as a bias toward further cuts, and ending on a single declarative line: “The Committee will deliver price stability.”
The Committee's stated read of the economy: activity expanding at a solid pace despite uncertainty from the conflict in the Middle East; productivity and capital investment strong; job gains keeping pace with the workforce; inflation still elevated relative to the 2 percent goal, partly from supply shocks including energy.
History
The range has been parked at 3.50–3.75 since December 11, 2025: 188 days as of this meeting, the end of a run of six cuts from the 5.25–5.50 cycle peak, with no upward move in the span.
Against the full 1982–2026 daily history of the Fed's target, all 15,970 observations, the 3.75 upper bound sits at the 48th percentile: almost exactly the middle of four decades of policy, just under the 3.82 mean and the 4.00 median. Not a high-rate regime by historical standards, and not the near-zero world of 2009–2015 either.
We combined two Fed series (DFEDTAR for 1982–2008, DFEDTARU for 2008 onward) through June 17, 2026: 15,970 daily observations. At 3.75, the current rate sits at the 48.5th percentile; the average over that span is 3.82, the median 4.00. Days held: December 11, 2025 to June 17, 2026 = 188. Both series are published by the St. Louis Fed, as of August 23, 2026.
The last comparable easing pause, October 2019, bottomed at 1.50–1.75, roughly 200bp below where this one is pausing. The Committee is holding at a level prior cycles treated as ordinary.
The real signal
The unanimous vote was not the day's real signal. In the Summary of Economic Projections released with the decision, the median projection for the federal funds rate at the end of 2026 rose to 3.8 percent, up from 3.4 in March: from a level that implied a rate cut this year to one implying a hike. The central tendency moved to 3.6–4.1, the full range to3.4–4.4.
| March | June | Shift | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fed funds rate, end of 2026 | 3.4% | 3.8% | +0.4 (cut → hike) |
| Fed funds rate, end of 2027 | 3.1% | 3.6% | +0.5 |
| Fed funds rate, end of 2028 | 3.1% | 3.4% | +0.3 |
| Fed funds rate, longer run | 3.1% | 3.1% | unchanged |
| PCE inflation, 2026 | 2.7% | 3.6% | +0.9 |
| Core PCE inflation, 2026 | 2.7% | 3.3% | +0.6 |
| Real GDP growth, 2026 | 2.4% | 2.2% | −0.2 |
| Unemployment rate, 2026 Q4 | 4.4% | 4.3% | −0.1 |
From the Fed’s own projection tables. The June range on the fed funds rate was 3.4–4.4, with a central tendency of 3.6–4.1. Nine of eighteen dots sat above the current midpoint.
The minutes, released July 8, show the hike case already forming inside the room: “a few participants commented that… there was a case for raising the target range,” though they supported the hold at this meeting, and “several participants remarked that they did not see the current policy stance as restrictive.” All participants supported maintaining the range in June.
One projection was missing: CNBC reported that Warsh, a longtime critic of the dot plot and of the Fed's forward-guidance apparatus, did not submit projections to his own first SEP. No other outlet in this story's records reported this.
Cross-source check
Four outlets' decision coverage, checked against the primary record.
“nine of the 18 voting members project an interest rate hike before the end of the year.”
Mislabeled. The count is right, the label is wrong: the FOMC has 12 voting members, and all 12 voted for the hold.
The 18 are SEP participants, which includes regional presidents who do not vote. Nine of those 18 dots sat above the current midpoint.
the dot-by-dot breakdown: one participant penciling 75bp of hikes, five at 50bp, three at 25bp.
Consistent. That sums to the same nine-above-midpoint reading, and fits the SEP’s published 3.4–4.4 range.
the only outlet that untangled the numbers explicitly: 12–0 on the vote, 8–1–9 on the dots, and near-unanimous upside inflation risk.
Checks out. Its SEP figures (median 3.8, PCE forecast 3.6) match the Fed's tables.
Its piece began as a June 16 preview and was updated through June 22; we quote the June 22 version.
Framing differences worth seeing side by side: the statement says “the conflict in the Middle East”; Fox Business rendered it as “the war in Iran.” And Fox carried Warsh’s press-conference line: “I am pleased to report that members of the FOMC are unambiguous and unanimous: this committee will deliver price stability.”
Checks out. It was checked the same way: the projections table.
CNBC, June 17, 2026, “Fed officials… removed their prior outlook for a rate cut this year and indicated that a hike is possible.” Matches the SEP: the 2026 median moved from 3.4 (a cut) to 3.8 (a hike).
Verified
The recurring premise: inflation above target “for more than five years”
The Fed's own staff briefing and most coverage lean on one factual claim: inflation has run above the 2 percent goal for over five years. We ran it against the PCE price index: Confirmed. PCE inflation has printed above 2 percent year-over-year for 63 consecutive months since March 2021, which is 5.3 years, with the latest pre-meeting reading at 4.1 percent (May 2026).
We took the PCE price index published by the St. Louis Fed and calculated the year-over-year change for every month. Every reading from March 2021 through May 2026 exceeds 2.0 percent; May 2026 came in at 4.08 percent. The CPI, a different index, ran hotter (4.2 percent in May per coverage). The series is as published August 23, 2026.
On the ground
While the policy rate holds at its 40-year midpoint, the rates households face are elsewhere: the 30-year fixed mortgage averaged 6.47 percent the week of the decision, against a 2021 low of 2.65. Unemployment stood at 4.3 percent in May 2026 (it printed 4.2 for June after the meeting).
Aftermath
The hawkish undercurrent visible in June's dots and minutes became formal six weeks later: on July 29 the Committee held again, but the vote was 9–3, with Beth Hammack (Cleveland), Neel Kashkari (Minneapolis), and Lorie Logan (Dallas) each dissenting in favor of a quarter-point increase. June's unanimity was the calm before that split; the July decision has its own story.
Watching: the September decision and its refreshed projections; monthly PCE prints against the 63-month streak; whether the hike dots become hike votes.
Fed policymakers voted 12-0 to leave the benchmark federal funds rate unchanged at its current range of 3.5% to 3.75%
2025-12-11,3.75
Federal Reserve Economic Data · No document link in this record.
The median rate on the dot plot was recorded at 3.8%
This record does not yet establish one current value.
median forecast for US real GDP growth in 2026 was revised to 2.2%
Policymakers' latest median forecast for the US unemployment rate in 2026 is 4.3%, slightly down from the 4.4% projected in March
TradingKeyofficials raised the median forecast for year-on-year growth of the Personal Consumption Expenditures price index in 2026 to 3.6%, significantly higher than the 2.7% projected in March
TradingKeymedian core PCE inflation forecast for 2026 rising to 3.3%
The dot-plot grid of individual members' expectations, in which Warsh did not participate, narrowly tilted toward one rate hike this year, then a cut in each of the following two years
CNBCsix projecting two 25-basis-point hikes
the median estimate for the fed funds rate at the end 2026 is now 3.8%
This record does not yet establish one current value.
the median core PCE inflation forecast for 2026 rising to 3.3%, far higher than the 2.7% projected in March.
TradingKeythe median estimate for the fed funds rate at the end 2026 is now 3.8%, up from 3.4% in the prior projections from March and signaling the committee sees at least one rate hike as necessary this year.
CNBCIn Kevin Warsh's first meeting as chairman, the Fed's statement was revamped to be dramatically shorter and to remove key language indicating a bias toward future cuts.
CNBCPricing
Markets left no doubt about the hold. Quotes of CME's FedWatch tool ran from 97.1 percent odds of no change on June 13 to 99.6 percent on decision morning, the figure the Wall Street Journal carried at 8:45 a.m. Polymarket and Kalshi traded the same call near 99 percent through June 16 and 17; Kalshi closed the night before at 97.8.
WSJ live coverage, June 17 8:45 a.m.: traders “pricing in a 99.6% chance” of a hold (CME). Investopedia, updated June 17: “99% chance” (FedWatch). DeFi Rate, June 16: Polymarket “no change at 100%”, Kalshi “99 cents”. June 13 FedWatch reading of 97.1% posted on X (@D0Vlad, June 15). Kalshi's Tuesday close of 97.8% per @e23miranda. CME's tool pages cannot be copied, so these dated posts are the record.
Sources
Everything this page rests on, by kind.
How we check · every figure above traces to one of these sources; we keep a dated copy of each one.