Break-even employment declines as unauthorized immigration outflows continue

… <p>Net unauthorized immigration is a key input in our framework for constructing break-even employment growth. This category of immigration surged during 2021–24 and then declined sharply, accounting for most of the variation in break-even employment growth in recent years. However, reliable estimates of such immigration have been limited.</p> <p>Using high frequency individual-level immigration court data combined with other administrative records through July 2025, previous work estimated that net unauthorized immigration plummeted after early 2024 and turned negative—indicating net outflows—beginning in February 2025 (&ldquo;New data show intensifying unauthorized immigration decline, with large local variations,&rdquo; <a href="/research/economics/2026/0113">Wilson and Zhou [(2026]</a>).</p> <p>We extend this analysis through December 2025 using microdata on immigration court records obtained through Freedom of Information Act requests by the Transactional Records Access Clearinghouse at Syracuse University. These data allow us to measure entries and enforced deportations of unauthorized immigrants. We also revise our estimates of voluntary exits (self-deportations) to reflect country-specific changes in the effective termination dates of <a href="https://www.uscis.gov/humanitarian/temporary-protected-status" target="_blank">Temporary Protected Status,</a><strong> </strong>which provides protection from removal.</p> …