Every statewide race in Alaska is close as 7 in 10 voters worry about affording gas and food

… <pre><code></code></pre><h2 style="white-space:pre-wrap;"><strong>Exhausted Ballots of Eliminated Candidates Could Make the Difference in All Three Races</strong></h2><p class="" style="white-space:pre-wrap;">Two <a href="https://alaskapublic.org/news/2026-06-18/states-refusal-to-put-petersburg-sullivan-on-ballot-likely-not-legally-justified-attorney-says"><span style="text-decoration:underline">controversial</span></a> candidates could affect the outcome of Alaska’s congressional races: a Senate candidate who shares the incumbent’s name, and a House candidate campaigning from federal prison who has never been to Alaska. Outside groups on both sides have <a href="https://anchoragepress.com/revealed-the-money-behind-the-last-minute-fringe-candidate-ad-blitz-in-alaskas-u-s-senate-primary/"><span style="text-decoration:underline">spent millions of dollars boosting lesser-known candidates</span></a> across Alaska’s races.</p><p class="" style="white-space:pre-wrap;">In ranked choice elections, a ballot is “exhausted” when every candidate a voter ranked has been eliminated. To estimate how much these ballots could matter, we ran a hypothetical scenario that transfers them to the most aligned remaining candidate (or, in the Senate race, the most similarly named).</p><p class="" style="white-space:pre-wrap;">If exhausted ballots from Sullivan Jr. voters were transferred to Sen. Sullivan, the Senate race would be tied. And if exhausted ballots from Hafner voters went to Hill, the House race would be tied, too. (In our survey, no ballots from Heikes or McDermott voters were exhausted.)</p><p class="" style="white-space:pre-wrap;">In the governor’s race, the three Republican candidates split the Republican vote in the first round, and when Taylor and Bronson are eliminated, some of their voters’ ballots exhaust rather than transferring to Wilson. If every exhausted ballot from a voter who ranked a Republican went to Wilson, the governor’s race would also be tied.</p> …