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Summary of Economic Projections, September 16, 2026
Published by the Federal Reserve Board on September 16, 2026.
The September participant medians, ranges and distributions for growth, unemployment, inflation and the policy rate.
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… June projection 3.6 2.3 2.0 2.0 3.5–3.7 2.2–2.5 2.0–2.1 2.0 2.7–4.1 1.9–2.8 2.0–2.3 2.0 Core PCE inflation4 3.4 2.5 2.2 2.0 3.3–3.4 2.3–2.6 2.0–2.2 2.0 2.8–3.5 2.1–2.7 2.0–2.3 2.0–2.1 June projection 3.3 2.5 2.1 3.2–3.5 2.3–2.6 2.0–2.2 2.6–3.5 2.0–3.0 2.0–2.4 Memo: Projected appropriate policy path Federal funds rate 4.1 4.1 3.9 3.6 3.2 4.1–4.4 3.6–4.4 3.1–4.1 3.1–3.6 3.0–3.6 3.9–4.4 3.1–4.4 3.1–4.1 2.9–3.9 2.9–3.9 June projection 3.8 3.6 3.4 3.1 3.6–4.1 3.1–3.9 3.1–3.6 3.0–3.5 3.4–4.4 2.9–4.4 2.9–3.9 2.9–3.9 Note: Projections of change in real gross domestic product (GDP) and projections for both measures of inflation are percent changes from the fourth quarter of …
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- Fed raises rates a quarter point on a unanimous vote · cited for Table 1 medians and participant distributions
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Timeline entries this record anchors: The committee raises the range by a quarter point.