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Oil markets strain to plug the gap left by Middle East supply shortfall
Published by International Energy Agency on September 18, 2026.
The agency's account of how the war cut Gulf oil flows through Hormuz and the routes around it.
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… <div class="m-block m-block--text"> <div class="m-block__content"> <h3 class="m-block__title f-title-5">Supply losses partly offset by bypass routes and non-Gulf growth</h3> </div> <div class="m-block__content f-rte f-rte--block"> <p>Six months after the start of the Middle East conflict, oil production and exports from the Gulf remain heavily restricted. Flows through the Strait of Hormuz averaged only 7.6 mb/d in August, according to the latest data. That puts them 13.1 mb/d below pre-war levels, with cumulative export losses via the waterway approaching 2.8 billion barrels. However, implied and observed inventory draws have been significantly lower than the headline supply loss. IEA balances show a much smaller deficit of 2.2 mb/d in the second quarter of 2026 and 1.7 mb/d in the third quarter due to a number of offsetting factors.</p> </div> …
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- The G7's 100 million barrels of emergency oil were already promised in March · cited for why diesel is short
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