Strong August jobs report sends yields higher

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data-react-aria-pressable="true" aria-label="Sustainability" aria-haspopup="true" aria-expanded="false"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" fill="none" viewBox="0 0 15 9" aria-hidden="true" focusable="false" role="presentation" data-testid="IconChevronDown" class="nav-bar-module__arrow__D1LfD chevron-down"><path d="M14.093.337c-.411-.45-1.028-.45-1.44 0L7.2 6.3 1.749.337c-.411-.45-1.028-.45-1.44 0a1.16 1.16 0 0 0 0 1.576l6.171 6.75c.206.225.515.337.72.337.205 0 .515-.112.72-.338l6.172-6.75a1.16 1.16 0 0 0 0-1.575h.001Z"></path></svg></button></div><div class="nav-bar-module__hidden__1Qi40" data-testid="sectionDropdownContainer" role="presentation"><span data-focus-scope-start="true" hidden=""></span><div data-testid="Sustainability" class="nav-bar-module__dropdown__bsmM6" id="react-aria-_R_4d7ila_"><div class="nav-dropdown-module__container__X8zm-" data-testid="NavDropdownContainer"><div class="nav-dropdown-module__inner__VS6zv"><div class="nav-dropdown-module__submenu__-HR75"><div class="nav-dropdown-module__inner__VS6zv"><h2 data-testid="Heading" class="text-module__text__0GDob text-module__dark-grey__UFC18 text-module__medium__2Rl30 text-module__heading_6__u1KdJ heading-module__base__p-zaD heading-module__heading_6__-zrtS"><a data-testid="SectionDropdown" href="/sustainability/" class="text-module__text__0GDob text-module__graphite__fZRmg text-module__medium__2Rl30 text-module__body__9d61E body-module__base__o--Cl body-module__body_alt__0ewNU nav-dropdown-module__section-link__Mvj6r">Browse Sustainability</a></h2><div class="nav-dropdown-module__sections__i94UN"><ul class="nav-dropdown-module__sections-group__CPSAa"><li><a data-testid="Body" href="/sustainability/boards-policy-regulation/" data-subnav="Sustainability_Boards, Policy &amp; Regulation" class="text-module__text__0GDob text-module__medium-grey__yZtlg text-module__regular__qJJtA text-module__small__sph8i body-module__base__o--Cl body-module__small_body__gOmDf nav-dropdown-module__subsection-link__T9-bB">Boards, Policy &amp; Regulation</a></li><li><a data-testid="Body" href="/sustainability/climate-energy/" data-subnav="Sustainability_Climate &amp; Energy" class="text-module__text__0GDob text-module__medium-grey__yZtlg text-module__regular__qJJtA text-module__small__sph8i body-module__base__o--Cl body-module__small_body__gOmDf nav-dropdown-module__subsection-link__T9-bB">Climate &amp; Energy</a></li><li><a data-testid="Body" href="/sustainability/land-use-biodiversity/" data-subnav="Sustainability_Land Use &amp; Biodiversity" class="text-module__text__0GDob text-module__medium-grey__yZtlg text-module__regular__qJJtA text-module__small__sph8i body-module__base__o--Cl body-module__small_body__gOmDf nav-dropdown-module__subsection-link__T9-bB">Land Use &amp; Biodiversity</a></li><li><a data-testid="Body" href="/sustainability/society-equity/" data-subnav="Sustainability_Society &amp; Equity" class="text-module__text__0GDob text-module__medium-grey__yZtlg text-module__regular__qJJtA text-module__small__sph8i body-module__base__o--Cl body-module__small_body__gOmDf nav-dropdown-module__subsection-link__T9-bB">Society &amp; Equity</a></li><li><a data-testid="Body" href="/sustainability/sustainable-finance-reporting/" data-subnav="Sustainability_Sustainable Finance &amp; Reporting" class="text-module__text__0GDob text-module__medium-grey__yZtlg text-module__regular__qJJtA text-module__small__sph8i body-module__base__o--Cl body-module__small_body__gOmDf nav-dropdown-module__subsection-link__T9-bB">Sustainable Finance &amp; Reporting</a></li><li><a data-testid="Body" href="/sustainability/the-switch/" data-subnav="Sustainability_The Switch" class="text-module__text__0GDob text-module__medium-grey__yZtlg text-module__regular__qJJtA text-module__small__sph8i body-module__base__o--Cl body-module__small_body__gOmDf nav-dropdown-module__subsection-link__T9-bB">The Switch</a></li><li><a data-testid="Body" href="/sustainability/reuters-impact/" data-subnav="Sustainability_Reuters Impact" class="text-module__text__0GDob text-module__medium-grey__yZtlg text-module__regular__qJJtA text-module__small__sph8i body-module__base__o--Cl body-module__small_body__gOmDf nav-dropdown-module__subsection-link__T9-bB">Reuters Impact</a></li><li><a data-testid="Body" href="/sustainability/cop/" data-subnav="Sustainability_COP31" class="text-module__text__0GDob text-module__medium-grey__yZtlg text-module__regular__qJJtA text-module__small__sph8i body-module__base__o--Cl body-module__small_body__gOmDf nav-dropdown-module__subsection-link__T9-bB">COP31</a></li></ul></div></div></div></div></div></div><span data-focus-scope-end="true" hidden=""></span></div></li><li class="nav-bar-module__nav-item__EUpy4"><div class="nav-bar-module__nav-button__mCZoN"><button data-testid="Text" type="button" tabindex="0" data-react-aria-pressable="true" aria-haspopup="true" aria-expanded="false" class="text-module__text__0GDob text-module__graphite__fZRmg text-module__medium__2Rl30 text-module__extra_small__8Buss nav-bar-module__button__YVhxE">More<svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" fill="none" viewBox="0 0 15 9" aria-hidden="true" focusable="false" role="presentation" data-testid="IconChevronDown" class="nav-bar-module__arrow__D1LfD nav-bar-module__more__C7bEy chevron-down"><path d="M14.093.337c-.411-.45-1.028-.45-1.44 0L7.2 6.3 1.749.337c-.411-.45-1.028-.45-1.44 0a1.16 1.16 0 0 0 0 1.576l6.171 6.75c.206.225.515.337.72.337.205 0 .515-.112.72-.338l6.172-6.75a1.16 1.16 0 0 0 0-1.575h.001Z"></path></svg></button></div><div class="nav-bar-module__hidden__1Qi40" data-testid="moreSectionDropdownContainer" role="presentation"><span data-focus-scope-start="true" hidden=""></span><div class="nav-bar-module__dropdown__bsmM6" id="react-aria-_R_l7ila_"><div class="nav-dropdown-module__container__X8zm-" data-testid="NavDropdownContainer"><div class="nav-dropdown-module__inner__VS6zv"><div class="nav-dropdown-module__submenu__-HR75"><div class="nav-dropdown-module__inner__VS6zv"><div class="nav-dropdown-module__more-sections__9LctJ"><div class="nav-dropdown-module__group-container__B7ZaS"><section data-testid="MoreDropdown" class="nav-dropdown-module__more-section-group__6-L2e nav-dropdown-module__has-children__Wpz3R"><h2 data-testid="Heading" class="text-module__text__0GDob text-module__dark-grey__UFC18 text-module__medium__2Rl30 text-module__heading_6__u1KdJ heading-module__base__p-zaD heading-module__heading_6__-zrtS"><a data-testid="Body" href="/legal/" class="text-module__text__0GDob text-module__graphite__fZRmg text-module__medium__2Rl30 text-module__body__9d61E body-module__base__o--Cl body-module__body_alt__0ewNU nav-dropdown-module__section-link__Mvj6r">Legal</a></h2><ul class="nav-dropdown-module__subsections__ElxDL"><li><a data-testid="Body" href="/legal/government/" class="text-module__text__0GDob text-module__medium-grey__yZtlg text-module__regular__qJJtA text-module__small__sph8i body-module__base__o--Cl body-module__small_body__gOmDf nav-dropdown-module__subsection-link__T9-bB">Government</a></li><li><a data-testid="Body" href="/legal/legalindustry/" class="text-module__text__0GDob text-module__medium-grey__yZtlg text-module__regular__qJJtA text-module__small__sph8i body-module__base__o--Cl body-module__small_body__gOmDf nav-dropdown-module__subsection-link__T9-bB">Legal Industry</a></li><li><a data-testid="Body" href="/legal/litigation/" class="text-module__text__0GDob text-module__medium-grey__yZtlg text-module__regular__qJJtA text-module__small__sph8i body-module__base__o--Cl body-module__small_body__gOmDf nav-dropdown-module__subsection-link__T9-bB">Litigation</a></li><li><a data-testid="Body" href="/legal/transactional/" class="text-module__text__0GDob text-module__medium-grey__yZtlg text-module__regular__qJJtA text-module__small__sph8i body-module__base__o--Cl body-module__small_body__gOmDf nav-dropdown-module__subsection-link__T9-bB">Transactional</a></li><li><a data-testid="Body" href="/legal/us-supreme-court/" class="text-module__text__0GDob text-module__medium-grey__yZtlg text-module__regular__qJJtA text-module__small__sph8i body-module__base__o--Cl body-module__small_body__gOmDf nav-dropdown-module__subsection-link__T9-bB">US Supreme Court</a></li></ul></section><section data-testid="MoreDropdown" class="nav-dropdown-module__more-section-group__6-L2e nav-dropdown-module__has-children__Wpz3R"><h2 data-testid="Heading" class="text-module__text__0GDob text-module__dark-grey__UFC18 text-module__medium__2Rl30 text-module__heading_6__u1KdJ heading-module__base__p-zaD heading-module__heading_6__-zrtS"><a data-testid="Body" href="/commentary/" class="text-module__text__0GDob text-module__graphite__fZRmg text-module__medium__2Rl30 text-module__body__9d61E body-module__base__o--Cl body-module__body_alt__0ewNU nav-dropdown-module__section-link__Mvj6r">Commentary</a></h2><ul class="nav-dropdown-module__subsections__ElxDL"><li><a data-testid="Body" href="/commentary/breakingviews/" class="text-module__text__0GDob text-module__medium-grey__yZtlg text-module__regular__qJJtA text-module__small__sph8i body-module__base__o--Cl body-module__small_body__gOmDf nav-dropdown-module__subsection-link__T9-bB">Breakingviews</a></li><li><a data-testid="Body" href="/commentary/reuters-open-interest/" class="text-module__text__0GDob text-module__medium-grey__yZtlg text-module__regular__qJJtA text-module__small__sph8i body-module__base__o--Cl body-module__small_body__gOmDf nav-dropdown-module__subsection-link__T9-bB">ROI: Reuters Open Interest</a></li></ul></section><section data-testid="MoreDropdown" class="nav-dropdown-module__more-section-group__6-L2e nav-dropdown-module__has-children__Wpz3R"><h2 data-testid="Heading" class="text-module__text__0GDob text-module__dark-grey__UFC18 text-module__medium__2Rl30 text-module__heading_6__u1KdJ heading-module__base__p-zaD heading-module__heading_6__-zrtS"><a data-testid="Body" href="/technology/" class="text-module__text__0GDob text-module__graphite__fZRmg text-module__medium__2Rl30 text-module__body__9d61E body-module__base__o--Cl body-module__body_alt__0ewNU nav-dropdown-module__section-link__Mvj6r">Technology</a></h2><ul class="nav-dropdown-module__subsections__ElxDL"><li><a data-testid="Body" href="/technology/artificial-intelligence/" class="text-module__text__0GDob text-module__medium-grey__yZtlg text-module__regular__qJJtA text-module__small__sph8i body-module__base__o--Cl body-module__small_body__gOmDf nav-dropdown-module__subsection-link__T9-bB">Artificial Intelligence</a></li><li><a data-testid="Body" href="/technology/cybersecurity/" class="text-module__text__0GDob text-module__medium-grey__yZtlg text-module__regular__qJJtA text-module__small__sph8i body-module__base__o--Cl body-module__small_body__gOmDf nav-dropdown-module__subsection-link__T9-bB">Cybersecurity</a></li><li><a data-testid="Body" href="/technology/space/" class="text-module__text__0GDob text-module__medium-grey__yZtlg text-module__regular__qJJtA text-module__small__sph8i body-module__base__o--Cl body-module__small_body__gOmDf nav-dropdown-module__subsection-link__T9-bB">Space</a></li><li><a data-testid="Body" href="/technology/disrupted/" class="text-module__text__0GDob text-module__medium-grey__yZtlg text-module__regular__qJJtA text-module__small__sph8i body-module__base__o--Cl body-module__small_body__gOmDf nav-dropdown-module__subsection-link__T9-bB">Disrupted</a></li></ul></section><section data-testid="MoreDropdown" class="nav-dropdown-module__more-section-group__6-L2e"><h2 data-testid="Heading" class="text-module__text__0GDob text-module__dark-grey__UFC18 text-module__medium__2Rl30 text-module__heading_6__u1KdJ heading-module__base__p-zaD heading-module__heading_6__-zrtS"><a data-testid="Body" href="/investigations/" class="text-module__text__0GDob text-module__graphite__fZRmg text-module__medium__2Rl30 text-module__body__9d61E body-module__base__o--Cl body-module__body_alt__0ewNU nav-dropdown-module__section-link__Mvj6r">Investigations</a></h2></section><section data-testid="MoreDropdown" class="nav-dropdown-module__more-section-group__6-L2e nav-dropdown-module__has-children__Wpz3R"><h2 data-testid="Heading" class="text-module__text__0GDob text-module__dark-grey__UFC18 text-module__medium__2Rl30 text-module__heading_6__u1KdJ heading-module__base__p-zaD heading-module__heading_6__-zrtS"><a data-testid="Body" href="/sports/" class="text-module__text__0GDob text-module__graphite__fZRmg text-module__medium__2Rl30 text-module__body__9d61E body-module__base__o--Cl body-module__body_alt__0ewNU nav-dropdown-module__section-link__Mvj6r">Sports</a></h2><ul class="nav-dropdown-module__subsections__ElxDL"><li><a data-testid="Body" href="/sports/world-cup/" class="text-module__text__0GDob text-module__medium-grey__yZtlg text-module__regular__qJJtA text-module__small__sph8i body-module__base__o--Cl body-module__small_body__gOmDf nav-dropdown-module__subsection-link__T9-bB">World Cup</a></li><li><a data-testid="Body" href="/sports/athletics/" class="text-module__text__0GDob text-module__medium-grey__yZtlg text-module__regular__qJJtA text-module__small__sph8i body-module__base__o--Cl body-module__small_body__gOmDf nav-dropdown-module__subsection-link__T9-bB">Athletics</a></li><li><a data-testid="Body" href="/sports/baseball/" class="text-module__text__0GDob text-module__medium-grey__yZtlg text-module__regular__qJJtA text-module__small__sph8i body-module__base__o--Cl body-module__small_body__gOmDf nav-dropdown-module__subsection-link__T9-bB">Baseball</a></li><li><a data-testid="Body" href="/sports/basketball/" class="text-module__text__0GDob text-module__medium-grey__yZtlg text-module__regular__qJJtA text-module__small__sph8i body-module__base__o--Cl body-module__small_body__gOmDf nav-dropdown-module__subsection-link__T9-bB">Basketball</a></li><li><a data-testid="Body" href="/sports/cricket/" class="text-module__text__0GDob text-module__medium-grey__yZtlg text-module__regular__qJJtA text-module__small__sph8i body-module__base__o--Cl body-module__small_body__gOmDf nav-dropdown-module__subsection-link__T9-bB">Cricket</a></li><li><a data-testid="Body" href="/sports/cycling/" class="text-module__text__0GDob text-module__medium-grey__yZtlg text-module__regular__qJJtA text-module__small__sph8i body-module__base__o--Cl body-module__small_body__gOmDf nav-dropdown-module__subsection-link__T9-bB">Cycling</a></li><li><a data-testid="Body" href="/sports/formula1/" class="text-module__text__0GDob text-module__medium-grey__yZtlg text-module__regular__qJJtA text-module__small__sph8i body-module__base__o--Cl body-module__small_body__gOmDf nav-dropdown-module__subsection-link__T9-bB">Formula 1</a></li><li><a data-testid="Body" href="/sports/golf/" class="text-module__text__0GDob text-module__medium-grey__yZtlg text-module__regular__qJJtA text-module__small__sph8i body-module__base__o--Cl body-module__small_body__gOmDf nav-dropdown-module__subsection-link__T9-bB">Golf</a></li><li><a data-testid="Body" href="/sports/nfl/" class="text-module__text__0GDob text-module__medium-grey__yZtlg text-module__regular__qJJtA text-module__small__sph8i body-module__base__o--Cl body-module__small_body__gOmDf nav-dropdown-module__subsection-link__T9-bB">NFL</a></li><li><a data-testid="Body" href="/sports/nhl/" class="text-module__text__0GDob text-module__medium-grey__yZtlg text-module__regular__qJJtA text-module__small__sph8i body-module__base__o--Cl body-module__small_body__gOmDf nav-dropdown-module__subsection-link__T9-bB">NHL</a></li><li><a data-testid="Body" href="/sports/soccer/" class="text-module__text__0GDob text-module__medium-grey__yZtlg text-module__regular__qJJtA text-module__small__sph8i body-module__base__o--Cl body-module__small_body__gOmDf nav-dropdown-module__subsection-link__T9-bB">Soccer</a></li><li><a data-testid="Body" href="/sports/tennis/" class="text-module__text__0GDob text-module__medium-grey__yZtlg text-module__regular__qJJtA text-module__small__sph8i body-module__base__o--Cl body-module__small_body__gOmDf nav-dropdown-module__subsection-link__T9-bB">Tennis</a></li></ul></section><section data-testid="MoreDropdown" class="nav-dropdown-module__more-section-group__6-L2e"><h2 data-testid="Heading" class="text-module__text__0GDob text-module__dark-grey__UFC18 text-module__medium__2Rl30 text-module__heading_6__u1KdJ heading-module__base__p-zaD heading-module__heading_6__-zrtS"><a data-testid="Body" href="/science/" class="text-module__text__0GDob text-module__graphite__fZRmg text-module__medium__2Rl30 text-module__body__9d61E body-module__base__o--Cl body-module__body_alt__0ewNU nav-dropdown-module__section-link__Mvj6r">Science</a></h2></section><section data-testid="MoreDropdown" class="nav-dropdown-module__more-section-group__6-L2e nav-dropdown-module__has-children__Wpz3R"><h2 data-testid="Heading" class="text-module__text__0GDob text-module__dark-grey__UFC18 text-module__medium__2Rl30 text-module__heading_6__u1KdJ heading-module__base__p-zaD heading-module__heading_6__-zrtS"><a data-testid="Body" href="/lifestyle/" class="text-module__text__0GDob text-module__graphite__fZRmg text-module__medium__2Rl30 text-module__body__9d61E body-module__base__o--Cl body-module__body_alt__0ewNU nav-dropdown-module__section-link__Mvj6r">Lifestyle</a></h2><ul class="nav-dropdown-module__subsections__ElxDL"><li><a data-testid="Body" href="/lifestyle/culture-current/" class="text-module__text__0GDob text-module__medium-grey__yZtlg text-module__regular__qJJtA text-module__small__sph8i body-module__base__o--Cl body-module__small_body__gOmDf nav-dropdown-module__subsection-link__T9-bB">Culture Current</a></li></ul></section><section data-testid="MoreDropdown" class="nav-dropdown-module__more-section-group__6-L2e"><h2 data-testid="Heading" class="text-module__text__0GDob text-module__dark-grey__UFC18 text-module__medium__2Rl30 text-module__heading_6__u1KdJ heading-module__base__p-zaD heading-module__heading_6__-zrtS"><a data-testid="Body" href="/city-memo/" class="text-module__text__0GDob text-module__graphite__fZRmg text-module__medium__2Rl30 text-module__body__9d61E body-module__base__o--Cl body-module__body_alt__0ewNU nav-dropdown-module__section-link__Mvj6r">City Memo</a></h2></section></div><div class="nav-dropdown-module__group-container__B7ZaS"><section data-testid="MoreDropdown" class="nav-dropdown-module__more-section-group__6-L2e nav-dropdown-module__has-children__Wpz3R"><h2 data-testid="Heading" class="text-module__text__0GDob text-module__dark-grey__UFC18 text-module__medium__2Rl30 text-module__heading_6__u1KdJ heading-module__base__p-zaD heading-module__heading_6__-zrtS"><a data-testid="Body" href="/graphics/" class="text-module__text__0GDob text-module__graphite__fZRmg text-module__medium__2Rl30 text-module__body__9d61E body-module__base__o--Cl body-module__body_alt__0ewNU nav-dropdown-module__section-link__Mvj6r">Graphics</a></h2><ul class="nav-dropdown-module__subsections__ElxDL"><li><a data-testid="Body" href="/chart-of-the-week/" class="text-module__text__0GDob text-module__medium-grey__yZtlg text-module__regular__qJJtA text-module__small__sph8i body-module__base__o--Cl body-module__small_body__gOmDf nav-dropdown-module__subsection-link__T9-bB">Chart of the Week</a></li></ul></section><section data-testid="MoreDropdown" class="nav-dropdown-module__more-section-group__6-L2e"><h2 data-testid="Heading" class="text-module__text__0GDob text-module__dark-grey__UFC18 text-module__medium__2Rl30 text-module__heading_6__u1KdJ heading-module__base__p-zaD heading-module__heading_6__-zrtS"><a data-testid="Body" href="/pictures/" class="text-module__text__0GDob text-module__graphite__fZRmg text-module__medium__2Rl30 text-module__body__9d61E body-module__base__o--Cl body-module__body_alt__0ewNU nav-dropdown-module__section-link__Mvj6r">Pictures</a></h2></section><section data-testid="MoreDropdown" class="nav-dropdown-module__more-section-group__6-L2e"><h2 data-testid="Heading" class="text-module__text__0GDob text-module__dark-grey__UFC18 text-module__medium__2Rl30 text-module__heading_6__u1KdJ heading-module__base__p-zaD heading-module__heading_6__-zrtS"><a data-testid="Body" href="/wider-image/" class="text-module__text__0GDob text-module__graphite__fZRmg text-module__medium__2Rl30 text-module__body__9d61E body-module__base__o--Cl body-module__body_alt__0ewNU nav-dropdown-module__section-link__Mvj6r">Wider Image</a></h2></section><section data-testid="MoreDropdown" class="nav-dropdown-module__more-section-group__6-L2e nav-dropdown-module__has-children__Wpz3R"><h2 data-testid="Heading" class="text-module__text__0GDob text-module__dark-grey__UFC18 text-module__medium__2Rl30 text-module__heading_6__u1KdJ heading-module__base__p-zaD heading-module__heading_6__-zrtS"><a data-testid="Body" href="/podcasts/" class="text-module__text__0GDob text-module__graphite__fZRmg text-module__medium__2Rl30 text-module__body__9d61E body-module__base__o--Cl body-module__body_alt__0ewNU nav-dropdown-module__section-link__Mvj6r">Podcasts</a></h2><ul class="nav-dropdown-module__subsections__ElxDL"><li><a data-testid="Body" href="/podcasts/reuters-world-news/" class="text-module__text__0GDob text-module__medium-grey__yZtlg text-module__regular__qJJtA text-module__small__sph8i body-module__base__o--Cl body-module__small_body__gOmDf nav-dropdown-module__subsection-link__T9-bB">Reuters World News</a></li><li><a data-testid="Body" href="/podcasts/reuters-morning-bid/" class="text-module__text__0GDob text-module__medium-grey__yZtlg text-module__regular__qJJtA text-module__small__sph8i body-module__base__o--Cl 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class="article-body-module__wrapper__kL0a8" confirmation_email_sent_page_url="/confirmationsent/" legal_marketing_page_url="https://legal.thomsonreuters.com/en/products/reuters-legal-news" sign_in_page_url="/account/sign-in/" sign_up_page_url="/account/register/sign-up/" terms_page_url="/info-pages/terms-of-use/"><div class="article-body-module__container__oOFyv over-6-para"><div data-testid="primary-video" class="article-body-module__primary-asset__Cn6rd" dir="ltr"><div class="primary-video-module__container__POisY"><div class="video-poster-image-module__poster__q5SXY" data-testid="VideoPosterImage"><div data-testid="EagerImageContainer" class="video-poster-image-module__poster-image__DlpUG"><div class="styles-module__image-container__E0mCm styles-module__cover__SgyOM styles-module__center_center__bzABO styles-module__apply-ratio__u0jXJ"><img data-testid="EagerImage" src="https://ajo.prod.reuters.tv/api/v2/img/6a997dd6e4b0f9a8fa3924f5-1788445890220?width=1080&amp;quality=80" alt="Macro Matters: Is America&#x27;s workforce getting too old?" fetchPriority="high"/></div></div><div class="video-poster-image-module__play-button-overlay__F-gy2"><div class="video-poster-image-module__play-button__zj8eK" data-testid="video-poster-play-button"></div></div></div></div></div><div class="article-body-module__content__bnXL1"><div data-testid="paragraph-0" class="text-module__text__0GDob text-module__dark-grey__UFC18 text-module__regular__qJJtA text-module__small__sph8i body-module__full_width__kCIGb body-module__small_body__gOmDf article-body-module__paragraph__Ts-yF">NEW YORK, Sept 4 (Reuters) - U.S. job growth <a data-testid="Link" referrerPolicy="no-referrer-when-downgrade" href="https://www.reuters.com/business/us-nonfarm-payrolls-surge-august-unemployment-rate-steady-41-2026-09-04/" class="text-module__text__0GDob text-module__inherit-color__PhuPF text-module__inherit-font__1P1hv text-module__inherit-size__EyiQW link-module__link__INqxZ link-module__underline_default__-okuC">accelerated sharply in August</a> while the unemployment rate held steady at 4.1%, pointing to a stable labor market and keeping an interest rate hike from the Federal Reserve this month on the table.</div><div data-testid="paragraph-1" class="text-module__text__0GDob text-module__dark-grey__UFC18 text-module__regular__qJJtA text-module__small__sph8i body-module__full_width__kCIGb body-module__small_body__gOmDf article-body-module__paragraph__Ts-yF">Nonfarm payrolls surged by 162,000 jobs last month after an upwardly revised rise of 21,000 in July, the Labor Department&#x27;s Bureau of Labor Statistics said on Friday. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast payrolls would increase by 56,000 after a previously reported drop of 23,000 in July.</div><p data-testid="promo-box" class="text-module__text__0GDob text-module__dark-grey__UFC18 text-module__regular__qJJtA text-module__small__sph8i body-module__base__o--Cl body-module__small_body__gOmDf article-body-module__promo-box__hVl8h"> <!-- -->Sign up<!-- --> <!-- --> <a data-testid="Link" referrerPolicy="no-referrer-when-downgrade" href="undefined?location=article-paragraph&amp;redirectUrl=%2Fbusiness%2Fview-strong-august-jobs-report-sends-yields-higher-2026-09-04%2F" class="text-module__text__0GDob text-module__inherit-color__PhuPF text-module__inherit-font__1P1hv text-module__inherit-size__EyiQW link-module__link__INqxZ link-module__underline_default__-okuC">here.</a></p><div data-testid="element" class="article-body-module__element__5eCce"></div><div data-testid="element" class="article-body-module__element__5eCce"></div><div data-testid="paragraph-2" class="text-module__text__0GDob text-module__dark-grey__UFC18 text-module__regular__qJJtA text-module__small__sph8i body-module__full_width__kCIGb body-module__small_body__gOmDf article-body-module__paragraph__Ts-yF">Labor market momentum had decelerated after surging in the spring, partly blamed on the oil price shock and supply chain strains from the U.S.-led war with Iran. Short-term interest-rate futures <a data-testid="Link" referrerPolicy="no-referrer-when-downgrade" href="https://www.reuters.com/business/fed-rate-hike-back-focus-after-strong-jobs-report-2026-09-04/" class="text-module__text__0GDob text-module__inherit-color__PhuPF text-module__inherit-font__1P1hv text-module__inherit-size__EyiQW link-module__link__INqxZ link-module__underline_default__-okuC">now imply about a 59% chance</a> of an increase in the U.S. policy rate at the Fed&#x27;s September ​15-16 meeting, up from about 55% before the Bureau of Labor Statistics report.</div><h2 data-testid="Heading" class="text-module__text__0GDob text-module__dark-grey__UFC18 text-module__medium__2Rl30 text-module__heading_6__u1KdJ heading-module__base__p-zaD heading-module__heading_6__-zrtS article-body-module__heading__KTJKz">REACTION:</h2><div data-testid="paragraph-3" class="text-module__text__0GDob text-module__dark-grey__UFC18 text-module__regular__qJJtA text-module__small__sph8i body-module__full_width__kCIGb body-module__small_body__gOmDf article-body-module__paragraph__Ts-yF">STOCKS: Major U.S. indexes were narrowly mixed after the report. The S&amp;P 500 <a data-testid="Link" target="_blank" referrerPolicy="no-referrer-when-downgrade" href="https://www.reuters.com/markets/quote/.SPX" rel="noopener" class="text-module__text__0GDob text-module__inherit-color__PhuPF text-module__inherit-font__1P1hv text-module__inherit-size__EyiQW link-module__link__INqxZ link-module__underline_default__-okuC link-module__with-icon__qlg76">(.SPX)<svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" viewBox="0 0 32 32" aria-hidden="true" focusable="false" role="presentation" data-testid="NewTabSymbol" class="link-module__new-tab-symbol__d53s7"><path fill="currentColor" d="M15 6c.6 0 1 .4 1 1s-.4 1-1 1H9c-.6 0-1 .4-1 1v14a1.1 1.1 0 0 0 .2.6c.1.2.4.4.8.4h14c.6 0 1-.4 1-1v-6c0-.6.4-1 1-1s1 .4 1 1v6a3 3 0 0 1-3 3H9a3 3 0 0 1-2.2-.9A3 3 0 0 1 6 23V9a3 3 0 0 1 3-3Zm10 0 .4.1.5.5.1.4v6c0 .6-.4 1-1 1s-1-.4-1-1V9.4l-5.3 5.3a1 1 0 0 1-.7.3 1 1 0 0 1-.7-.3 1 1 0 0 1 0-1.4L22.6 8H19c-.6 0-1-.4-1-1s.4-1 1-1Z"></path></svg><span style="border:0;clip:rect(0 0 0 0);clip-path:inset(50%);height:1px;margin:-1px;overflow:hidden;padding:0;position:absolute;width:1px;white-space:nowrap">, opens new tab</span></a> was off 0.1% and the Nasdaq composite <a data-testid="Link" target="_blank" referrerPolicy="no-referrer-when-downgrade" href="https://www.reuters.com/markets/quote/.IXIC" rel="noopener" class="text-module__text__0GDob text-module__inherit-color__PhuPF text-module__inherit-font__1P1hv text-module__inherit-size__EyiQW link-module__link__INqxZ link-module__underline_default__-okuC link-module__with-icon__qlg76">(.IXIC)<svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" viewBox="0 0 32 32" aria-hidden="true" focusable="false" role="presentation" data-testid="NewTabSymbol" class="link-module__new-tab-symbol__d53s7"><path fill="currentColor" d="M15 6c.6 0 1 .4 1 1s-.4 1-1 1H9c-.6 0-1 .4-1 1v14a1.1 1.1 0 0 0 .2.6c.1.2.4.4.8.4h14c.6 0 1-.4 1-1v-6c0-.6.4-1 1-1s1 .4 1 1v6a3 3 0 0 1-3 3H9a3 3 0 0 1-2.2-.9A3 3 0 0 1 6 23V9a3 3 0 0 1 3-3Zm10 0 .4.1.5.5.1.4v6c0 .6-.4 1-1 1s-1-.4-1-1V9.4l-5.3 5.3a1 1 0 0 1-.7.3 1 1 0 0 1-.7-.3 1 1 0 0 1 0-1.4L22.6 8H19c-.6 0-1-.4-1-1s.4-1 1-1Z"></path></svg><span style="border:0;clip:rect(0 0 0 0);clip-path:inset(50%);height:1px;margin:-1px;overflow:hidden;padding:0;position:absolute;width:1px;white-space:nowrap">, opens new tab</span></a> was up 0.1%.</div><div data-testid="element" class="article-body-module__element__5eCce"></div><div data-testid="paragraph-4" class="text-module__text__0GDob text-module__dark-grey__UFC18 text-module__regular__qJJtA text-module__small__sph8i body-module__full_width__kCIGb body-module__small_body__gOmDf article-body-module__paragraph__Ts-yF">BONDS: U.S. Treasury yields rose on the news, though the increases moderated as the morning progressed. The 2-year Treasury yield , most sensitive to the ‌market&#x27;s expectations of Fed rate action, rose 5 basis points to 4.38% after earlier rising 8 basis points. The 10-year Treasury yield rose 1 basis points to 4.776%. The 30-year yield was down 0.5 basis point to 5.239%.</div><div data-testid="paragraph-5" class="text-module__text__0GDob text-module__dark-grey__UFC18 text-module__regular__qJJtA text-module__small__sph8i body-module__full_width__kCIGb body-module__small_body__gOmDf article-body-module__paragraph__Ts-yF">FOREX: The dollar index rose 0.2% to 99.12.</div><div data-testid="element" class="article-body-module__element__5eCce"></div><div data-testid="paragraph-6" class="text-module__text__0GDob text-module__dark-grey__UFC18 text-module__regular__qJJtA text-module__small__sph8i body-module__full_width__kCIGb body-module__small_body__gOmDf article-body-module__paragraph__Ts-yF">COMMODITIES: The gold price fell 1.2% to $4,418, reversing some recent gains.</div><h2 data-testid="Heading" class="text-module__text__0GDob text-module__dark-grey__UFC18 text-module__medium__2Rl30 text-module__heading_6__u1KdJ heading-module__base__p-zaD heading-module__heading_6__-zrtS article-body-module__heading__KTJKz">COMMENTS:</h2><h2 data-testid="Heading" class="text-module__text__0GDob text-module__dark-grey__UFC18 text-module__medium__2Rl30 text-module__heading_6__u1KdJ heading-module__base__p-zaD heading-module__heading_6__-zrtS article-body-module__heading__KTJKz">NOEL DIXON, SENIOR MACRO STRATEGIST, STATE STREET, BOSTON:</h2><div data-testid="paragraph-7" class="text-module__text__0GDob text-module__dark-grey__UFC18 text-module__regular__qJJtA text-module__small__sph8i body-module__full_width__kCIGb body-module__small_body__gOmDf article-body-module__paragraph__Ts-yF">“I don&#x27;t think this number changes anything really. It&#x27;s all going to be about CPI, because in today&#x27;s number the unemployment rate stayed steady, but if you look at wages year over year, that&#x27;s the lowest since June 2021. So if Waller and Warsh and Williams, who I think are very influential, wanted to hang their hat on something, they could hang it on that and then basically focus all their energy on the CPI next week.</div><div data-testid="element" class="article-body-module__element__5eCce"></div><div data-testid="paragraph-8" class="text-module__text__0GDob text-module__dark-grey__UFC18 text-module__regular__qJJtA text-module__small__sph8i body-module__full_width__kCIGb body-module__small_body__gOmDf article-body-module__paragraph__Ts-yF">“It&#x27;s all going to boil down to what that core number is going to be next week and I think the markets are going to react accordingly.”</div><div data-testid="paragraph-9" class="text-module__text__0GDob text-module__dark-grey__UFC18 text-module__regular__qJJtA text-module__small__sph8i body-module__full_width__kCIGb body-module__small_body__gOmDf article-body-module__paragraph__Ts-yF">ROBERT PAVLIK, SENIOR PORTFOLIO ​MANAGER, DAKOTA WEALTH IN FAIRFIELD, CONNECTICUT: &quot;I think it&#x27;s a good sign that the economy is holding up, that it&#x27;s not collapsing, despite the fact that we have higher prices.&quot;Now you&#x27;re having to contend with market participants that are worried that the Fed is going to use this as a sort of a gateway to raise interest rates. We have higher inflation, we have steady ​employment. We have the ability to raise interest rates. &quot;I think that&#x27;s a ridiculous move by the Federal Reserve if they do take it in September. One interest rate hike is not going to counteract the inflation caused by a decrease in supply of energy or oil.&quot; BROCK WEIMER, ANALYST, INVESTMENT STRATEGY, ⁠EDWARD JONES, ST. LOUIS, MISSOURI:</div><div data-testid="paragraph-10" class="text-module__text__0GDob text-module__dark-grey__UFC18 text-module__regular__qJJtA text-module__small__sph8i body-module__full_width__kCIGb body-module__small_body__gOmDf article-body-module__paragraph__Ts-yF">&quot;The August jobs report was positive across the board, in our view. The 162,000 gain in nonfarm payrolls was broad-based across goods-producing and service-providing sectors. We also received upward revisions to payroll growth for June and July, suggesting to us that hiring trends have remained steady throughout the summer. It was also encouraging that the unemployment rate held steady at 4.1% despite an increase in the ​labor force, signaling to us that widespread layoffs remain limited.&quot;</div><h2 data-testid="Heading" class="text-module__text__0GDob text-module__dark-grey__UFC18 text-module__medium__2Rl30 text-module__heading_6__u1KdJ heading-module__base__p-zaD heading-module__heading_6__-zrtS article-body-module__heading__KTJKz">BRET KENWELL, US INVESTMENT ANALYST, ETORO, NEW YORK:</h2><div data-testid="paragraph-11" class="text-module__text__0GDob text-module__dark-grey__UFC18 text-module__regular__qJJtA text-module__small__sph8i body-module__full_width__kCIGb body-module__small_body__gOmDf article-body-module__paragraph__Ts-yF">“The August jobs report was a step in the right direction, even if investors interpret it through a &#x27;good news is bad news&#x27; lens, potentially weighing on risk assets like stocks and recently revived cryptoassets like Bitcoin. Regardless of how investors view the labor market, the Fed considers it broadly consistent with full employment, and today’s report ​will likely reinforce that view. In the Fed’s eyes, the labor market is holding up, which means inflation remains the bigger problem.</div><div data-testid="paragraph-12" class="text-module__text__0GDob text-module__dark-grey__UFC18 text-module__regular__qJJtA text-module__small__sph8i body-module__full_width__kCIGb body-module__small_body__gOmDf article-body-module__paragraph__Ts-yF">&quot;Next week’s CPI report will be closely watched with the Fed’s interest-rate decision looming in mid-September. With rate-hike odds currently near 50-50, inflation data may carry more weight than the jobs report in shaping the Fed’s next move. There’s still work to do before the labor market can be considered fully healthy, but the August jobs report reinforced the idea that it remains stable.”</div><h2 data-testid="Heading" class="text-module__text__0GDob text-module__dark-grey__UFC18 text-module__medium__2Rl30 text-module__heading_6__u1KdJ heading-module__base__p-zaD heading-module__heading_6__-zrtS article-body-module__heading__KTJKz">JAMIE COX, MANAGING PARTNER AT HARRIS FINANCIAL GROUP, RICHMOND, VIRGINIA:</h2><div data-testid="paragraph-13" class="text-module__text__0GDob text-module__dark-grey__UFC18 text-module__regular__qJJtA text-module__small__sph8i body-module__full_width__kCIGb body-module__small_body__gOmDf article-body-module__paragraph__Ts-yF">&quot;This is a slider in the dirt for the Federal Reserve as it contemplates interest rates later this month. There are several board members who will swing (and miss) at this pitch to advocate for higher short terms rates. The data support a hold, not a hike.&quot;</div><div data-testid="paragraph-14" class="text-module__text__0GDob text-module__dark-grey__UFC18 text-module__regular__qJJtA text-module__small__sph8i body-module__full_width__kCIGb body-module__small_body__gOmDf article-body-module__paragraph__Ts-yF">BRAD CONGER, CHIEF INVESTMENT OFFICER, HIRTLE &amp; CO., BRYN MAWR, PENNSYLVANIA:“August non-farm payrolls were stronger than expected. The headline number affirms Chairman Warsh’s assertion that the FOMC does not need ​to worry about the employment side of the mandate. Monetary restraint should depress term premiums/breakevens and help long duration outperform.</div><div data-testid="paragraph-15" class="text-module__text__0GDob text-module__dark-grey__UFC18 text-module__regular__qJJtA text-module__small__sph8i body-module__full_width__kCIGb body-module__small_body__gOmDf article-body-module__paragraph__Ts-yF">&quot;More interesting is the composition. If you squint, you might see the outlines of the AI displacement. Sectors with high AI adoption (information, financial) were weaker. Sectors that are building/equipping/powering data centers (construction, manufacturing, utilities) were stronger. That should support incomes in the lower leg of the K.”</div><div data-testid="paragraph-16" class="text-module__text__0GDob text-module__dark-grey__UFC18 text-module__regular__qJJtA text-module__small__sph8i body-module__full_width__kCIGb body-module__small_body__gOmDf article-body-module__paragraph__Ts-yF">SAM STOVALL, CHIEF INVESTMENT STRATEGIST, CFRA RESEARCH, NEW YORK:&quot;The numbers ended up ​being more than three times what was expected and that certainly has added to the confusion of what the Fed will be doing, mainly because the Fed has told us that it wants to focus on inflation over payrolls. Now that payroll numbers are substantially higher, I think that that adds to the possibility that the Fed will be at least considering.</div><figure data-testid="image-0" dir="ltr" class="article-image-module__figure__DJ9zE article-body-module__element__5eCce article-body-module__img__n-qlE"><div data-testid="Image" class="article-image-module__image__BInJs"><div class="styles-module__image-container__E0mCm styles-module__fill__Ft7kn styles-module__center_center__bzABO styles-module__apply-ratio__u0jXJ styles-module__transition__joucY" style="--aspect-ratio:1.5"></div><noscript><img src="https://www.reuters.com/resizer/v2/KG62NZPTSZODJMOPSFYVH7AZME.jpg?auth=bc43c1dcd6d0340ab26a4ccd498645e01b7137c8dfc842e6bd56d814b95490c0&width=1920&quality=80" width="5442" height="3628" alt="Job hiring sign at Target store in California" /></noscript></div><div data-testid="Body" class="text-module__text__0GDob text-module__dark-grey__UFC18 text-module__regular__qJJtA text-module__ultra_small__6-vhY body-module__full_width__kCIGb body-module__ultra_small_body__WelUC article-image-module__figcaption__S3axy article-body-module__figcaption__x2MkY"><span>A sign posted outside a Target store states the company is hiring in Encinitas, California, U.S., March 30, 2026. REUTERS/Mike Blake/File Photo <a data-testid="Link" target="_blank" referrerPolicy="no-referrer-when-downgrade" href="https://www.reutersconnect.com/item/job-hiring-sign-at-target-store-in-california/dGFnOnJldXRlcnMuY29tLDIwMjY6bmV3c21sX1JDMjdGS0E4QTNGWA%3D%3D/?utm_medium=rcom-article-media&amp;utm_campaign=rcom-rcp-lead" rel="noopener" class="text-module__text__0GDob text-module__inherit-color__PhuPF text-module__inherit-font__1P1hv text-module__inherit-size__EyiQW link-module__link__INqxZ link-module__underline_default__-okuC link-module__with-icon__qlg76 collapsible-caption-module__license__CPQvV">Purchase Licensing<span><span class="link-module__suffix__ObiNY"> Rights</span><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" viewBox="0 0 32 32" aria-hidden="true" focusable="false" role="presentation" data-testid="NewTabSymbol" class="link-module__new-tab-symbol__d53s7 link-module__move-left__CCZH6 collapsible-caption-module__symbol__943UJ" fill="#666" width="0" height="0"><path fill="currentColor" d="M15 6c.6 0 1 .4 1 1s-.4 1-1 1H9c-.6 0-1 .4-1 1v14a1.1 1.1 0 0 0 .2.6c.1.2.4.4.8.4h14c.6 0 1-.4 1-1v-6c0-.6.4-1 1-1s1 .4 1 1v6a3 3 0 0 1-3 3H9a3 3 0 0 1-2.2-.9A3 3 0 0 1 6 23V9a3 3 0 0 1 3-3Zm10 0 .4.1.5.5.1.4v6c0 .6-.4 1-1 1s-1-.4-1-1V9.4l-5.3 5.3a1 1 0 0 1-.7.3 1 1 0 0 1-.7-.3 1 1 0 0 1 0-1.4L22.6 8H19c-.6 0-1-.4-1-1s.4-1 1-1Z"></path></svg><span style="border:0;clip:rect(0 0 0 0);clip-path:inset(50%);height:1px;margin:-1px;overflow:hidden;padding:0;position:absolute;width:1px;white-space:nowrap">, opens new tab</span></span></a></span></div></figure><div data-testid="paragraph-17" class="text-module__text__0GDob text-module__dark-grey__UFC18 text-module__regular__qJJtA text-module__small__sph8i body-module__full_width__kCIGb body-module__small_body__gOmDf article-body-module__paragraph__Ts-yF">&quot;The market has turned down because I think that indicates that investors are concerned that ‌the Fed now has more ⁠ammunition to raise rates or at least less ammunition to keep rates steady.</div><div data-testid="paragraph-18" class="text-module__text__0GDob text-module__dark-grey__UFC18 text-module__regular__qJJtA text-module__small__sph8i body-module__full_width__kCIGb body-module__small_body__gOmDf article-body-module__paragraph__Ts-yF">&quot;The real question is what happens to the market after next week&#x27;s inflation data, because we really don&#x27;t have any earnings left and the Fed meeting won&#x27;t be until the week after. So the only thing that the market can focus on is the inflation data for next week.&quot;</div><div data-testid="paragraph-19" class="text-module__text__0GDob text-module__dark-grey__UFC18 text-module__regular__qJJtA text-module__small__sph8i body-module__full_width__kCIGb body-module__small_body__gOmDf article-body-module__paragraph__Ts-yF">GARY SCHLOSSBERG, GLOBAL STRATEGIST, WELLS FARGO INVESTMENT INSTITUTE, SAN FRANCISCO:&quot;We attributed some of the weakness in the job market to the productivity gains that we&#x27;re beginning to see from the introduction, the absorption of artificial intelligence into the economy. But this report simply reinforces the view that the economy has had a good deal of momentum coming through the summer.</div><div data-testid="paragraph-20" class="text-module__text__0GDob text-module__dark-grey__UFC18 text-module__regular__qJJtA text-module__small__sph8i body-module__full_width__kCIGb body-module__small_body__gOmDf article-body-module__paragraph__Ts-yF">&quot;With oil prices moving up, though, that does run the risk of squeezing household incomes a bit and slowing consumer spending, which hasn&#x27;t been spectacular, but certainly supported.</div><div data-testid="paragraph-21" class="text-module__text__0GDob text-module__dark-grey__UFC18 text-module__regular__qJJtA text-module__small__sph8i body-module__full_width__kCIGb body-module__small_body__gOmDf article-body-module__paragraph__Ts-yF">&quot;Today&#x27;s report going into the meeting, I think certainly puts more pressure on the CPI to come in very friendly to avoid a rate increase by the Federal Reserve. I think if there are signs that in consumer prices inflation is moving up, that just reinforces the view that the Fed will be raising rates on September 16th.&quot;</div><h2 data-testid="Heading" class="text-module__text__0GDob text-module__dark-grey__UFC18 text-module__medium__2Rl30 text-module__heading_6__u1KdJ heading-module__base__p-zaD heading-module__heading_6__-zrtS article-body-module__heading__KTJKz">JOSH STEVENS, CHIEF INVESTMENT OFFICER, CRESALTA INVESTMENT MANAGEMENT, GREENWOOD VILLAGE, COLORADO:</h2><div data-testid="paragraph-22" class="text-module__text__0GDob text-module__dark-grey__UFC18 text-module__regular__qJJtA text-module__small__sph8i body-module__full_width__kCIGb body-module__small_body__gOmDf article-body-module__paragraph__Ts-yF">&quot;This is obviously a very volatile ​report, but it does mean that at this point the Fed&#x27;s focus is going to be on ​inflation.</div><div data-testid="paragraph-23" class="text-module__text__0GDob text-module__dark-grey__UFC18 text-module__regular__qJJtA text-module__small__sph8i body-module__full_width__kCIGb body-module__small_body__gOmDf article-body-module__paragraph__Ts-yF">&quot;The stakes are going to stay high for the inflation data next week. The argument ⁠about the labor market remaining weak has some validity, but if employment shows strength in next few months, we’d see a pickup in wages, and that would get the Fed’s attention.</div><div data-testid="paragraph-24" class="text-module__text__0GDob text-module__dark-grey__UFC18 text-module__regular__qJJtA text-module__small__sph8i body-module__full_width__kCIGb body-module__small_body__gOmDf article-body-module__paragraph__Ts-yF">&quot;This shows a positive direction for the overall economy. Things got a little bit disjointed with the Iran war but it does seem like some of the momentum we saw in the beginning of the year is back.&quot;</div><h2 data-testid="Heading" class="text-module__text__0GDob text-module__dark-grey__UFC18 text-module__medium__2Rl30 text-module__heading_6__u1KdJ heading-module__base__p-zaD heading-module__heading_6__-zrtS article-body-module__heading__KTJKz">CHRISTOPHER HODGE, CHIEF U.S. ECONOMIST, NATIXIS, NEW YORK:</h2><div data-testid="paragraph-25" class="text-module__text__0GDob text-module__dark-grey__UFC18 text-module__regular__qJJtA text-module__small__sph8i body-module__full_width__kCIGb body-module__small_body__gOmDf article-body-module__paragraph__Ts-yF">&quot;Even after July’s report, most policymakers seemed sanguine about the labor market so inflation will clearly still be the primary driver of near-term policy. A softer print today could have given some wiggle room ​on what was considered to the an acceptable core CPI print, but clearly we didn’t get that. Instead, the onus will continue to be on the doves to get a disinflationary print that justifies another hold – we are putting that bogey at about 20bps. Absent that, the Fed will ​likely hike in September.&quot;</div><h2 data-testid="Heading" class="text-module__text__0GDob text-module__dark-grey__UFC18 text-module__medium__2Rl30 text-module__heading_6__u1KdJ heading-module__base__p-zaD heading-module__heading_6__-zrtS article-body-module__heading__KTJKz">TIM URBANOWICZ, CHIEF INVESTMENT STRATEGIST, INNOVATOR ETFS, ⁠GOLDMAN SACHS ASSET MANAGEMENT, NEW YORK:</h2><div data-testid="paragraph-26" class="text-module__text__0GDob text-module__dark-grey__UFC18 text-module__regular__qJJtA text-module__small__sph8i body-module__full_width__kCIGb body-module__small_body__gOmDf article-body-module__paragraph__Ts-yF">&quot;Today’s report was strong, and we could see markets take a react first, ask questions later approach. but once the dust settles, we think investors will realize the broader trend of labor market rebalancing is still intact.”</div><h2 data-testid="Heading" class="text-module__text__0GDob text-module__dark-grey__UFC18 text-module__medium__2Rl30 text-module__heading_6__u1KdJ heading-module__base__p-zaD heading-module__heading_6__-zrtS article-body-module__heading__KTJKz">PETER CARDILLO, CHIEF MARKET ECONOMIST, SPARTAN CAPITAL SECURITIES, NEW YORK:</h2><div data-testid="paragraph-27" class="text-module__text__0GDob text-module__dark-grey__UFC18 text-module__regular__qJJtA text-module__small__sph8i body-module__full_width__kCIGb body-module__small_body__gOmDf article-body-module__paragraph__Ts-yF">“This is a strong report considering market consensus, and a strong rebound from the previous month. Hourly wages, not a problem. That&#x27;s actually positive here.</div><div data-testid="paragraph-28" class="text-module__text__0GDob text-module__dark-grey__UFC18 text-module__regular__qJJtA text-module__small__sph8i body-module__full_width__kCIGb body-module__small_body__gOmDf article-body-module__paragraph__Ts-yF">“It shows that the labor market is solid. There&#x27;s no evidence here of rising wage inflation, even though they&#x27;re a little bit higher than expected on a yearly basis, but 3.1% is more or less what we&#x27;ve had for a sustained period of time. So I don&#x27;t think this will be a problem for the Fed, and certainly it shows that the jobs market is in solid condition.</div><div data-testid="paragraph-29" class="text-module__text__0GDob text-module__dark-grey__UFC18 text-module__regular__qJJtA text-module__small__sph8i body-module__full_width__kCIGb body-module__small_body__gOmDf article-body-module__paragraph__Ts-yF">“Remember next week we have the CPI and PPI and I expect them ⁠to more or less be ​a repeat of what we saw in July and August. And if that&#x27;s the case, I think that the Fed stays on hold. (Fed Chair) Kevin Warsh certainly talked a tough talk on inflation, but he&#x27;s in no real hurry to raise ​rates, and I think he&#x27;s going to hold out.”</div><h2 data-testid="Heading" class="text-module__text__0GDob text-module__dark-grey__UFC18 text-module__medium__2Rl30 text-module__heading_6__u1KdJ heading-module__base__p-zaD heading-module__heading_6__-zrtS article-body-module__heading__KTJKz">BRIAN JACOBSEN, CHIEF ECONOMIC STRATEGIST, ANNEX WEALTH MANAGEMENT, MENOMONEE FALLS, WISCONSIN:</h2><div data-testid="paragraph-30" class="text-module__text__0GDob text-module__dark-grey__UFC18 text-module__regular__qJJtA text-module__small__sph8i body-module__full_width__kCIGb body-module__small_body__gOmDf article-body-module__paragraph__Ts-yF">&quot;The drop in employment in July was an illusion. That’s the problem with trying to trade the headlines. Data get revised. The drop in local education was a seasonal adjustment illusion.</div><div data-testid="paragraph-31" class="text-module__text__0GDob text-module__dark-grey__UFC18 text-module__regular__qJJtA text-module__small__sph8i body-module__full_width__kCIGb body-module__small_body__gOmDf article-body-module__paragraph__Ts-yF">&quot;The index for aggregate hours and aggregate earnings both advanced nicely.</div><div data-testid="paragraph-32" class="text-module__text__0GDob text-module__dark-grey__UFC18 text-module__regular__qJJtA text-module__small__sph8i body-module__full_width__kCIGb body-module__small_body__gOmDf article-body-module__paragraph__Ts-yF">&quot;The labor force participation rate improved, but it’s hard to believe the labor force increased by 683,000 in August. The BLS has some soul searching to do when it comes ​to seasonal adjustments.</div><div data-testid="paragraph-33" class="text-module__text__0GDob text-module__dark-grey__UFC18 text-module__regular__qJJtA text-module__small__sph8i body-module__full_width__kCIGb body-module__small_body__gOmDf article-body-module__paragraph__Ts-yF">&quot;If there’s a cloud behind the silver lining of the report, it’s that the number of people who have been unemployed for 27 weeks and over increased by 159,000. A “no-hire, no-fire” situation is OK for those with jobs, but tough for those without.&quot;</div><div class="article-body-module__element__5eCce"><p data-testid="SignOff" class="text-module__text__0GDob text-module__dark-grey__UFC18 text-module__regular__qJJtA text-module__extra_small__8Buss body-module__full_width__kCIGb body-module__extra_small_body__Bfz20 sign-off-module__text__LQAMP">Reporting by Lucia Mutikani, Rashika Singh, Sudeshna Ghoshal, Karen Brettell, Suzanne McGee, Ragini Mathur, Medha Singh, Tharuniyaa Lakshmi, Saeed Azhar, Stephen Culp, Niket Nishant; editing by Colin Barr</p></div><p data-testid="Body" dir="ltr" class="text-module__text__0GDob text-module__dark-grey__UFC18 text-module__regular__qJJtA text-module__small__sph8i body-module__base__o--Cl body-module__small_body__gOmDf article-body-module__element__5eCce article-body-module__trust-badge__5mS3f">Our Standards: <a data-testid="Link" target="_blank" referrerPolicy="no-referrer-when-downgrade" 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link-module__underline_on_hover__YTwYC"><span data-testid="TitleHeading" class="text-module__text__0GDob text-module__inherit-color__PhuPF text-module__medium__2Rl30 text-module__heading_6__u1KdJ heading-module__base__p-zaD heading-module__heading_6__-zrtS title-module__heading__ZrRzk">Paramount could settle with states over Warner Bros. as soon as this weekend</span></a></div><figure class=" image-container no-caption story-card-module__area-media__N2Hg6" data-testid="MediaImage"><a data-testid="MediaImageLink" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1" referrerPolicy="no-referrer-when-downgrade" href="/business/media-telecom/paramount-states-discuss-cnn-monitoring-film-release-commitment-sources-say-2026-09-18/" class="text-module__text__0GDob text-module__dark-grey__UFC18 text-module__medium__2Rl30 text-module__default__R2Ckt link-module__link__INqxZ link-module__underline_default__-okuC image-module__container__dqGwP story-card-module__image-link__4wq06"><div data-testid="Image" class="image 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href="/business/finance/why-frances-budget-problems-have-driven-its-bond-risk-premium-2012-highs-2026-09-18/" class="text-module__text__0GDob text-module__dark-grey__UFC18 text-module__inherit-font__1P1hv text-module__inherit-size__EyiQW link-module__link__INqxZ link-module__underline_on_hover__YTwYC"><span data-testid="TitleHeading" class="text-module__text__0GDob text-module__inherit-color__PhuPF text-module__medium__2Rl30 text-module__heading_6__u1KdJ heading-module__base__p-zaD heading-module__heading_6__-zrtS title-module__heading__ZrRzk">Explainer: Why France&#x27;s budget problems have driven its bond risk premium to 2012 highs</span></a></div><figure class=" image-container no-caption story-card-module__area-media__N2Hg6" data-testid="MediaImage"><a data-testid="MediaImageLink" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1" referrerPolicy="no-referrer-when-downgrade" href="/business/finance/why-frances-budget-problems-have-driven-its-bond-risk-premium-2012-highs-2026-09-18/" 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class="text-module__text__0GDob text-module__inherit-color__PhuPF text-module__inherit-font__1P1hv text-module__inherit-size__EyiQW link-module__link__INqxZ link-module__underline_on_hover__YTwYC">Business<span style="border:0;clip:rect(0 0 0 0);clip-path:inset(50%);height:1px;margin:-1px;overflow:hidden;padding:0;position:absolute;width:1px;white-space:nowrap">category</span></a></span><div data-testid="Title" class="title-module__title__Lr6MH story-card-module__area-headline__N6EZa"><a data-testid="TitleLink" referrerPolicy="no-referrer-when-downgrade" href="/business/us-equity-funds-post-fourth-weekly-outflow-inflation-worries-rate-concerns-2026-09-18/" class="text-module__text__0GDob text-module__dark-grey__UFC18 text-module__inherit-font__1P1hv text-module__inherit-size__EyiQW link-module__link__INqxZ link-module__underline_on_hover__YTwYC"><span data-testid="TitleHeading" class="text-module__text__0GDob text-module__inherit-color__PhuPF text-module__medium__2Rl30 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text-module__inherit-font__1P1hv text-module__inherit-size__EyiQW link-module__link__INqxZ link-module__underline_on_hover__YTwYC"><span data-testid="TitleHeading" class="text-module__text__0GDob text-module__inherit-color__PhuPF text-module__medium__2Rl30 text-module__heading_6__u1KdJ heading-module__base__p-zaD heading-module__heading_6__-zrtS title-module__heading__ZrRzk">Global equity fund outflows hit nine-month high on inflation fears</span></a></div><figure class=" image-container no-caption story-card-module__area-media__N2Hg6" data-testid="MediaImage"><a data-testid="MediaImageLink" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1" referrerPolicy="no-referrer-when-downgrade" href="/world/china/global-markets-flows-graphic-pix-2026-09-18/" class="text-module__text__0GDob text-module__dark-grey__UFC18 text-module__medium__2Rl30 text-module__default__R2Ckt link-module__link__INqxZ link-module__underline_default__-okuC image-module__container__dqGwP story-card-module__image-link__4wq06"><div data-testid="Image" class="image story-card-module__image__NNKq2"><div class="styles-module__image-container__E0mCm styles-module__cover__SgyOM styles-module__center_center__bzABO styles-module__apply-ratio__u0jXJ styles-module__transition__joucY" style="--aspect-ratio:1.5"></div><noscript><img src="https://www.reuters.com/resizer/v2/AH755XT77NLKDCELI5XAHSRPHY.jpg?auth=bcb98c5f521bf0b560075d12ad7ea07cc37b775083e5dab49cfa221893ac1565&width=1200&quality=80" alt="NYSE traders after the Federal Reserve raised interest rates on Wednesday, in New York City" /></noscript></div></a></figure></div></li><li class="read-next-v2-module__item__F8aJ9" inert=""><div class="story-card-module__tpl-common__G5wYS story-card-module__tpl-full-media-on-top__ps3O2 story-card-module__transition-no-date-for-extra-wide-desktop__20m3z story-card-module__transition-no-date-for-desktop__b65V6 story-card-module__transition-no-date-for-tablet__2zqMx story-card-module__transition-media-on-right-for-mobile__ygju8 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class="media-story-card-module__image-container__fJn9a"><div data-testid="Image" class="image"><div class="styles-module__image-container__E0mCm styles-module__cover__SgyOM styles-module__center_center__bzABO styles-module__apply-ratio__u0jXJ styles-module__transition__joucY" style="--aspect-ratio:1.5"></div><noscript><img src="https://www.reuters.com/resizer/v2/JBWMXC7XKVKJ3L5W7N6N7IOH6U.jpg?auth=b8cd42ba0bcda66ef116864ec8a8e98b460dc210b26b68ac11462614bf1b9d90&width=1200&quality=80" width="4064" height="2709" alt="U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng shake hands during trade talks at OECD (Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development) headquarters in Paris" /></noscript></div></div></a></div><div class="media-story-card-module__body__nZjo1"><h3 data-testid="Heading" class="text-module__text__0GDob text-module__dark-grey__UFC18 text-module__medium__2Rl30 text-module__heading_3__mSQzZ heading-module__base__p-zaD heading-module__heading_3__ESrdL"><a data-testid="Link" referrerPolicy="no-referrer-when-downgrade" href="https://www.reuters.com/business/finance/us-treasurys-bessent-chinas-he-meet-sunday-jpmorgan-headquarters-2026-09-19/" class="text-module__text__0GDob text-module__dark-grey__UFC18 text-module__inherit-font__1P1hv text-module__inherit-size__EyiQW link-module__link__INqxZ link-module__underline_on_hover__YTwYC link-module__inherit-line-height__1vd2c media-story-card-module__heading__xgKcP">US Treasury&#x27;s Bessent, China&#x27;s He to meet on Sunday at JPMorgan headquarters</a></h3><span data-testid="Label" class="text-module__text__0GDob text-module__inherit-color__PhuPF text-module__light__ZYtNU text-module__default__R2Ckt label-module__label__Sv2H2 kicker_hero media-story-card-module__section__PyVDc"><a data-testid="Link" referrerPolicy="no-referrer-when-downgrade" href="/business/finance/" class="text-module__text__0GDob text-module__inherit-color__PhuPF text-module__inherit-font__1P1hv text-module__inherit-size__EyiQW link-module__link__INqxZ link-module__underline_on_hover__YTwYC">Finance<span style="border:0;clip:rect(0 0 0 0);clip-path:inset(50%);height:1px;margin:-1px;overflow:hidden;padding:0;position:absolute;width:1px;white-space:nowrap">category</span></a> · <time dateTime="2026-09-19T18:34:20.268Z">September 19, 2026 · 6:34 PM UTC</time> · ago</span><p data-testid="Body" class="text-module__text__0GDob text-module__dark-grey__UFC18 text-module__regular__qJJtA text-module__large__03GSP body-module__base__o--Cl body-module__large_body__NQgnj media-story-card-module__description__DzXN2">US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent will meet with Vice Premier He Lifeng on Sunday ​at JPMorgan Chase headquarters in New York to ‌discuss AI security, trade and other economic issues, a person familiar with the planning said on Saturday.</p></div></div></li><li class="story-collection-module__list-item__nvJUz story-collection-module__story__A3dpi story-collection-module__default__k3Xt2 story-collection-module__with-spacing__OhP-U" id="E3N5EWTCUVMWBIEZTR75RKZ7KI" data-testid="one_hero_and_two_columns"><div data-testid="MediaStoryCard" class="media-story-card-module__hub__y3KsD story-card"><div class="media-story-card-module__placement-container__1ZSB1"><a href="https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/brazils-petrobras-board-approves-joining-diesel-subsidy-program-2026-09-19/" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1" referrerPolicy="no-referrer-when-downgrade"><div class="media-story-card-module__image-container__fJn9a"><div data-testid="Image" class="image"><div class="styles-module__image-container__E0mCm styles-module__cover__SgyOM styles-module__center_center__bzABO styles-module__apply-ratio__u0jXJ styles-module__transition__joucY" style="--aspect-ratio:1.5"></div><noscript><img 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0);clip-path:inset(50%);height:1px;margin:-1px;overflow:hidden;padding:0;position:absolute;width:1px;white-space:nowrap">category</span></a></span><a data-testid="Heading" href="https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/brazils-petrobras-board-approves-joining-diesel-subsidy-program-2026-09-19/" class="text-module__text__0GDob text-module__dark-grey__UFC18 text-module__medium__2Rl30 text-module__heading_6__u1KdJ heading-module__base__p-zaD heading-module__heading_6__-zrtS media-story-card-module__headline__ZWaRz">Brazil&#x27;s Petrobras board approves joining diesel subsidy program</a><div class="media-story-card-module__date-line__37fk5"><time data-testid="Label" dateTime="2026-09-19T18:15:53.12Z" class="text-module__text__0GDob text-module__inherit-color__PhuPF text-module__regular__qJJtA text-module__extra_small__8Buss label-module__label__Sv2H2 label-module__small__0kHqa date">6:15 PM UTC</time></div></div></div></li><li class="story-collection-module__list-item__nvJUz story-collection-module__story__A3dpi story-collection-module__default__k3Xt2 story-collection-module__with-spacing__OhP-U" id="4UOQMGD3WRJCXGNH4BB7HWSPGY" data-testid="one_hero_and_two_columns"><div data-testid="MediaStoryCard" class="media-story-card-module__hub__y3KsD story-card"><div class="media-story-card-module__placement-container__1ZSB1"><a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/white-house-turns-away-cnn-ms-now-politico-reporters-after-trump-announces-ban-2026-09-19/" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1" referrerPolicy="no-referrer-when-downgrade"><div class="media-story-card-module__image-container__fJn9a"><div data-testid="Image" class="image"><div class="styles-module__image-container__E0mCm styles-module__cover__SgyOM styles-module__center_center__bzABO styles-module__apply-ratio__u0jXJ styles-module__transition__joucY" style="--aspect-ratio:1.5"></div><noscript><img src="https://www.reuters.com/resizer/v2/YHTPEAXTYZJYVJRFXUQYDNCMRM.jpg?auth=bda9f63d0f18bde4a1017efca089c54533d694047513685e7f75a1798f54721c&width=960&quality=80" width="3000" height="2001" alt="President Donald Trump Bans Three Major News Outlets From The White House" /></noscript></div><div data-testid="Media" class="media-story-card-module__media__a-Vic media-module__symbol__O-kyE media-module__corner__lBxSF"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" viewBox="0 0 16 20" aria-hidden="true" focusable="false" role="presentation" aria-labelledby="react-aria-_R_irbr5a_"><path d="m15.499 9.173-14-9.022C1.2-.05.8-.05.5.15c-.3.1-.5.4-.5.802v18.045c0 .4.2.701.5.902.2.1.3.1.5.1s.4-.1.5-.2l14-9.023c.3-.201.5-.502.5-.802 0-.301-.2-.702-.5-.803l-.001.001ZM2 17.193V2.757L13.2 9.975 2 17.193Z"></path></svg></div></div></a></div><div class="media-story-card-module__body__nZjo1"><span data-testid="Label" class="text-module__text__0GDob text-module__dark-grey__UFC18 text-module__light__ZYtNU 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media-story-card-module__headline__ZWaRz">TotalEnergies&#x27; offshore project in Suriname on track for first output in mid-2028</a><div class="media-story-card-module__date-line__37fk5"><time data-testid="Label" dateTime="2026-09-19T15:34:47.486Z" class="text-module__text__0GDob text-module__inherit-color__PhuPF text-module__regular__qJJtA text-module__extra_small__8Buss label-module__label__Sv2H2 label-module__small__0kHqa date">3:34 PM UTC</time></div></div></div></li><li class="story-collection-module__list-item__nvJUz story-collection-module__story__A3dpi story-collection-module__default__k3Xt2 story-collection-module__with-spacing__OhP-U" id="LB6FWFHDEZNQXFZMWXPJTTMYJE" data-testid="one_hero_and_two_columns"><div data-testid="MediaStoryCard" class="media-story-card-module__hub__y3KsD story-card"><div class="media-story-card-module__placement-container__1ZSB1"><a 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text-module__heading_6__u1KdJ">Podcasts</span></a></li></ul></section></div><section data-testid="LinkGroup" class="site-footer-module__link-group__Hxt4R site-footer-module__hidden-mobile__5cjU9"><h3 data-testid="Heading" class="text-module__text__0GDob text-module__dark-grey__UFC18 text-module__light__ZYtNU text-module__heading_6__u1KdJ heading-module__base__p-zaD heading-module__heading_6_light__klgho link-group-module__label__mDGn2">Latest</h3><ul class="link-group-module__list__yrOzI link-group-module__vertical__vGvtx"><li class="link-group-module__item__Za3t6"><a data-testid="Link" target="_self" referrerPolicy="no-referrer-when-downgrade" href="/" class="text-module__text__0GDob text-module__dark-grey__UFC18 text-module__medium__2Rl30 text-module__default__R2Ckt link-module__link__INqxZ link-module__underline_on_hover__YTwYC link-group-module__link__BcHeN"><span data-testid="LinkGroupItem" class="text-module__text__0GDob text-module__dark-grey__UFC18 text-module__medium__2Rl30 text-module__heading_6__u1KdJ">Home</span></a></li><li class="link-group-module__item__Za3t6"><a data-testid="Link" target="_self" referrerPolicy="no-referrer-when-downgrade" href="/sitemap/authors/" class="text-module__text__0GDob text-module__dark-grey__UFC18 text-module__medium__2Rl30 text-module__default__R2Ckt link-module__link__INqxZ link-module__underline_on_hover__YTwYC link-group-module__link__BcHeN"><span data-testid="LinkGroupItem" class="text-module__text__0GDob text-module__dark-grey__UFC18 text-module__medium__2Rl30 text-module__heading_6__u1KdJ">Authors</span></a></li><li class="link-group-module__item__Za3t6"><a data-testid="Link" target="_self" referrerPolicy="no-referrer-when-downgrade" href="/sitemap/topics/" class="text-module__text__0GDob text-module__dark-grey__UFC18 text-module__medium__2Rl30 text-module__default__R2Ckt link-module__link__INqxZ link-module__underline_on_hover__YTwYC link-group-module__link__BcHeN"><span data-testid="LinkGroupItem" class="text-module__text__0GDob text-module__dark-grey__UFC18 text-module__medium__2Rl30 text-module__heading_6__u1KdJ">Topic Sitemap</span></a></li><li class="link-group-module__item__Za3t6"><a data-testid="Link" target="_self" referrerPolicy="no-referrer-when-downgrade" href="/archive/" class="text-module__text__0GDob text-module__dark-grey__UFC18 text-module__medium__2Rl30 text-module__default__R2Ckt link-module__link__INqxZ link-module__underline_on_hover__YTwYC link-group-module__link__BcHeN"><span data-testid="LinkGroupItem" class="text-module__text__0GDob text-module__dark-grey__UFC18 text-module__medium__2Rl30 text-module__heading_6__u1KdJ">Archive</span></a></li><li class="link-group-module__item__Za3t6"><a data-testid="Link" target="_self" referrerPolicy="no-referrer-when-downgrade" href="/sitemap/" class="text-module__text__0GDob text-module__dark-grey__UFC18 text-module__medium__2Rl30 text-module__default__R2Ckt link-module__link__INqxZ link-module__underline_on_hover__YTwYC link-group-module__link__BcHeN"><span data-testid="LinkGroupItem" class="text-module__text__0GDob text-module__dark-grey__UFC18 text-module__medium__2Rl30 text-module__heading_6__u1KdJ">Article Sitemap</span></a></li></ul></section><section data-testid="LinkGroup" class="site-footer-module__link-group__Hxt4R"><h3 data-testid="Heading" class="text-module__text__0GDob text-module__dark-grey__UFC18 text-module__light__ZYtNU text-module__heading_6__u1KdJ heading-module__base__p-zaD heading-module__heading_6_light__klgho link-group-module__label__mDGn2">Browse</h3><ul class="link-group-module__list__yrOzI link-group-module__vertical__vGvtx"><li class="link-group-module__item__Za3t6"><a data-testid="Link" target="_self" referrerPolicy="no-referrer-when-downgrade" href="/world/" class="text-module__text__0GDob text-module__dark-grey__UFC18 text-module__medium__2Rl30 text-module__default__R2Ckt link-module__link__INqxZ link-module__underline_on_hover__YTwYC link-group-module__link__BcHeN"><span data-testid="LinkGroupItem" class="text-module__text__0GDob text-module__dark-grey__UFC18 text-module__medium__2Rl30 text-module__heading_6__u1KdJ">World</span></a></li><li class="link-group-module__item__Za3t6"><a data-testid="Link" target="_self" referrerPolicy="no-referrer-when-downgrade" href="/business/" class="text-module__text__0GDob text-module__dark-grey__UFC18 text-module__medium__2Rl30 text-module__default__R2Ckt link-module__link__INqxZ link-module__underline_on_hover__YTwYC link-group-module__link__BcHeN"><span data-testid="LinkGroupItem" class="text-module__text__0GDob text-module__dark-grey__UFC18 text-module__medium__2Rl30 text-module__heading_6__u1KdJ">Business</span></a></li><li class="link-group-module__item__Za3t6"><a data-testid="Link" target="_self" referrerPolicy="no-referrer-when-downgrade" href="/markets/" class="text-module__text__0GDob text-module__dark-grey__UFC18 text-module__medium__2Rl30 text-module__default__R2Ckt link-module__link__INqxZ link-module__underline_on_hover__YTwYC link-group-module__link__BcHeN"><span data-testid="LinkGroupItem" class="text-module__text__0GDob text-module__dark-grey__UFC18 text-module__medium__2Rl30 text-module__heading_6__u1KdJ">Markets</span></a></li><li class="link-group-module__item__Za3t6"><a data-testid="Link" target="_self" referrerPolicy="no-referrer-when-downgrade" href="/sustainability/" class="text-module__text__0GDob text-module__dark-grey__UFC18 text-module__medium__2Rl30 text-module__default__R2Ckt link-module__link__INqxZ link-module__underline_on_hover__YTwYC link-group-module__link__BcHeN"><span data-testid="LinkGroupItem" class="text-module__text__0GDob text-module__dark-grey__UFC18 text-module__medium__2Rl30 text-module__heading_6__u1KdJ">Sustainability</span></a></li><li class="link-group-module__item__Za3t6"><a data-testid="Link" target="_self" referrerPolicy="no-referrer-when-downgrade" href="/legal/" class="text-module__text__0GDob text-module__dark-grey__UFC18 text-module__medium__2Rl30 text-module__default__R2Ckt link-module__link__INqxZ link-module__underline_on_hover__YTwYC link-group-module__link__BcHeN"><span data-testid="LinkGroupItem" class="text-module__text__0GDob text-module__dark-grey__UFC18 text-module__medium__2Rl30 text-module__heading_6__u1KdJ">Legal</span></a></li><li class="link-group-module__item__Za3t6"><a data-testid="Link" target="_self" referrerPolicy="no-referrer-when-downgrade" href="/breakingviews/" class="text-module__text__0GDob text-module__dark-grey__UFC18 text-module__medium__2Rl30 text-module__default__R2Ckt link-module__link__INqxZ link-module__underline_on_hover__YTwYC link-group-module__link__BcHeN"><span data-testid="LinkGroupItem" class="text-module__text__0GDob text-module__dark-grey__UFC18 text-module__medium__2Rl30 text-module__heading_6__u1KdJ">Breakingviews</span></a></li><li class="link-group-module__item__Za3t6"><a data-testid="Link" target="_self" referrerPolicy="no-referrer-when-downgrade" href="/technology/" class="text-module__text__0GDob text-module__dark-grey__UFC18 text-module__medium__2Rl30 text-module__default__R2Ckt link-module__link__INqxZ link-module__underline_on_hover__YTwYC link-group-module__link__BcHeN"><span data-testid="LinkGroupItem" class="text-module__text__0GDob text-module__dark-grey__UFC18 text-module__medium__2Rl30 text-module__heading_6__u1KdJ">Technology</span></a></li><li class="link-group-module__item__Za3t6"><a data-testid="Link" target="_self" referrerPolicy="no-referrer-when-downgrade" href="/investigations/" class="text-module__text__0GDob text-module__dark-grey__UFC18 text-module__medium__2Rl30 text-module__default__R2Ckt link-module__link__INqxZ link-module__underline_on_hover__YTwYC link-group-module__link__BcHeN"><span data-testid="LinkGroupItem" class="text-module__text__0GDob text-module__dark-grey__UFC18 text-module__medium__2Rl30 text-module__heading_6__u1KdJ">Investigations</span></a></li><li class="link-group-module__item__Za3t6"><a data-testid="Link" target="_self" referrerPolicy="no-referrer-when-downgrade" href="/sports/" class="text-module__text__0GDob text-module__dark-grey__UFC18 text-module__medium__2Rl30 text-module__default__R2Ckt link-module__link__INqxZ link-module__underline_on_hover__YTwYC link-group-module__link__BcHeN"><span data-testid="LinkGroupItem" class="text-module__text__0GDob text-module__dark-grey__UFC18 text-module__medium__2Rl30 text-module__heading_6__u1KdJ">Sports</span></a></li><li class="link-group-module__item__Za3t6"><a data-testid="Link" target="_self" referrerPolicy="no-referrer-when-downgrade" href="/science/" class="text-module__text__0GDob text-module__dark-grey__UFC18 text-module__medium__2Rl30 text-module__default__R2Ckt link-module__link__INqxZ link-module__underline_on_hover__YTwYC link-group-module__link__BcHeN"><span data-testid="LinkGroupItem" class="text-module__text__0GDob text-module__dark-grey__UFC18 text-module__medium__2Rl30 text-module__heading_6__u1KdJ">Science</span></a></li><li class="link-group-module__item__Za3t6"><a data-testid="Link" target="_self" referrerPolicy="no-referrer-when-downgrade" href="/lifestyle/" class="text-module__text__0GDob text-module__dark-grey__UFC18 text-module__medium__2Rl30 text-module__default__R2Ckt link-module__link__INqxZ link-module__underline_on_hover__YTwYC link-group-module__link__BcHeN"><span data-testid="LinkGroupItem" class="text-module__text__0GDob text-module__dark-grey__UFC18 text-module__medium__2Rl30 text-module__heading_6__u1KdJ">Lifestyle</span></a></li></ul></section><section data-testid="LinkGroup" class="site-footer-module__link-group__Hxt4R site-footer-module__hidden-mobile__5cjU9"><h3 data-testid="Heading" class="text-module__text__0GDob text-module__dark-grey__UFC18 text-module__light__ZYtNU text-module__heading_6__u1KdJ heading-module__base__p-zaD heading-module__heading_6_light__klgho link-group-module__label__mDGn2">Media</h3><ul class="link-group-module__list__yrOzI link-group-module__vertical__vGvtx"><li class="link-group-module__item__Za3t6"><div data-testid="Media" class="link-group-module__symbol__vLvQd media-module__symbol__O-kyE media-module__none__3jUM3"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" viewBox="0 0 16 11" aria-hidden="true" focusable="false" role="presentation" aria-labelledby="react-aria-_R_16i7la_"><path d="M15.6665,1.5665 C15.4665,1.433 15.2,1.5 15,1.633 L11.3335,4.233 L11.3335,2.1665 C11.3335,1.033 10.467,0.1665 9.3335,0.1665 L2,0.1665 C0.8665,0.1665 0,1.033 0,2.1665 L0,8.833 C0,9.9665 0.8665,10.833 2,10.833 L9.3335,10.833 C10.467,10.833 11.3335,9.9665 11.3335,8.833 L11.3335,6.7665 L14.9335,9.3665 C15.067,9.433 15.2,9.5 15.3335,9.5 C15.467,9.5 15.5335,9.5 15.667,9.4335 C15.867,9.3 16.0005,9.1 16.0005,8.8335 L16.0005,2.167 C16.0005,1.9005 15.867,1.7005 15.667,1.567 L15.6665,1.5665 Z M10,8.8335 C10,9.2335 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type="application/javascript">window.Fusion=window.Fusion||{};Fusion.arcSite="reuters";Fusion.contextPath="/pf";Fusion.mxId="00000000";Fusion.deployment="387";Fusion.globalContent={"statusCode":200,"message":"Success","result":{"id":"NKQ34ULXIVIWHN5VLKWXCOE3FY","revision_id":"CYU7BVMZLZCQZKLEJW57NOOLCI","canonical_url":"/business/view-strong-august-jobs-report-sends-yields-higher-2026-09-04/","website":"reuters","web":"Strong August jobs report sends yields higher","native":"Strong August jobs report sends yields higher","headline_feature":"INSTANT","published":true,"published_time":"2026-09-04T12:50:16.74Z","article_type":"Standard","display_my_news":true,"display_newsletter_signup":true,"display_notifications":true,"display_related_media":true,"display_related_organizations":true,"content_code":"metered","source":{"name":"Reuters","original_name":"Reuters"},"additional_properties":{"article_properties":{"place":"NEW YORK"},"advisory_properties":{"advisory":"Updates with U.S. market open, added comments"}},"properties":{"id":"YSK4Z322EZMUTMAX7ADZRR4PKA","module_my_news":true,"module_newsletter_signup":true,"module_notifications":true,"module_related_media":true,"module_related_organizations":true},"sign_off":"Reporting by Lucia Mutikani, Rashika Singh, Sudeshna Ghoshal, Karen Brettell, Suzanne McGee, Ragini Mathur, Medha Singh, Tharuniyaa Lakshmi, Saeed Azhar, Stephen Culp, Niket Nishant; editing by Colin Barr","dateline":["NEW YORK, Sept 4 (Reuters)"],"language":"en","slug":"USA-STOCKS/JOBS (UPDATE 3, INSTANT VIEW)","version":"0.10.11","shared_url":"/business/view-strong-august-jobs-report-sends-yields-higher-2026-09-04/","created_date":"2026-09-04T12:48:09.577Z","type":"story","title":"Strong August jobs report sends yields higher","basic_headline":"Strong August jobs report sends yields higher","distributor":"Reuters","description":"U.S. job growth accelerated sharply in August while the unemployment rate held steady at 4.1%, pointing to a stable labor market and keeping an interest rate hike from the Federal Reserve this month on the table.","primary_media_type":"video","primary_tag":{"short_bio":"TOPIC:MARKETS-OVERVIEW","description":"TOPIC:MARKETS-OVERVIEW","slug":"topic-markets-overview","text":"TOPIC:MARKETS-OVERVIEW","topic_url":"/tags/topic-markets-overview/"},"word_count":1745,"read_minutes":9,"header_controls":{"premium_dek":"Yes","hero_image_ratio":"16:9","hero_image_gradient":"None","hero_image_text_placement":"Bottom dark"},"headlines":{"basic":"Strong August jobs report sends yields higher"},"thumbnail":{"url":"https://cloudfront-us-east-2.images.arcpublishing.com/reuters/KG62NZPTSZODJMOPSFYVH7AZME.jpg","caption":"A sign posted outside a Target store states the company is hiring in Encinitas, California, U.S., March 30, 2026. REUTERS/Mike Blake/File Photo","type":"image","resizer_url":"https://www.reuters.com/resizer/v2/KG62NZPTSZODJMOPSFYVH7AZME.jpg?auth=bc43c1dcd6d0340ab26a4ccd498645e01b7137c8dfc842e6bd56d814b95490c0","location":"ENCINITAS, CA, UNITED STATES","id":"KG62NZPTSZODJMOPSFYVH7AZME","authors":"Mike Blake","alt_text":"Job hiring sign at Target store in California","width":5442,"height":3628,"subtitle":"Job hiring sign at Target store in California","slug":"USA-ECONOMY","updated_at":"2026-09-04T12:50:20Z","company":"Reuters","purchase_licensing_path":"https://www.reutersconnect.com/item/job-hiring-sign-at-target-store-in-california/dGFnOnJldXRlcnMuY29tLDIwMjY6bmV3c21sX1JDMjdGS0E4QTNGWA%3D%3D/?utm_medium=rcom-article-media&utm_campaign=rcom-rcp-lead"},"authors":[{"name":"Reuters","company":"Reuters","thumbnail":{"url":"https://cloudfront-us-east-2.images.arcpublishing.com/reuters/H24NV3AFCZCWPC463OG3JRYY7U.jpg","type":"image","resizer_url":"https://www.reuters.com/resizer/v2/https%3A%2F%2Fcloudfront-us-east-2.images.arcpublishing.com%2Freuters%2FH24NV3AFCZCWPC463OG3JRYY7U.jpg?auth=4dd3566d980534ddab2fb815cfdf9f08e04ca3d4f4dd0c88f6e42931b1e77167"},"byline":"Reuters"}],"display_time":"2026-09-04T12:50:16.74Z","updated_time":"2026-09-04T13:41:25.165Z","excerpt":{"content":"U.S. job growth <a href=\"https://www.reuters.com/business/us-nonfarm-payrolls-surge-august-unemployment-rate-steady-41-2026-09-04/\">accelerated sharply in August</a> while the unemployment rate held steady at 4.1%, pointing to a stable labor market and keeping an interest rate hike from the Federal Reserve this month on the table.","type":"paragraph"},"content_elements":[{"content":"U.S. job growth <a href=\"https://www.reuters.com/business/us-nonfarm-payrolls-surge-august-unemployment-rate-steady-41-2026-09-04/\">accelerated sharply in August</a> while the unemployment rate held steady at 4.1%, pointing to a stable labor market and keeping an interest rate hike from the Federal Reserve this month on the table.","type":"paragraph"},{"content":"Nonfarm payrolls surged by 162,000 jobs last month after an upwardly revised rise of 21,000 in July, the Labor Department's Bureau of Labor Statistics said on Friday. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast payrolls would increase by 56,000 after a previously reported drop of 23,000 in July.","type":"paragraph"},{"content":"Labor market momentum had decelerated after surging in the spring, partly blamed on the oil price shock and supply chain strains from the U.S.-led war with Iran. Short-term interest-rate futures <a href=\"https://www.reuters.com/business/fed-rate-hike-back-focus-after-strong-jobs-report-2026-09-04/\">now imply about a 59% chance</a> of an increase in the U.S. policy rate at the Fed's September ​15-16 meeting, up from about 55% before the Bureau of Labor Statistics report.","type":"paragraph"},{"level":1,"content":"REACTION:","type":"header"},{"content":"STOCKS: Major U.S. indexes were narrowly mixed after the report. The S&amp;P 500 <a href=\"https://www.reuters.com/markets/quote/.SPX\" target=\"_blank\">(.SPX)</a> was off 0.1% and the Nasdaq composite <a href=\"https://www.reuters.com/markets/quote/.IXIC\" target=\"_blank\">(.IXIC)</a> was up 0.1%.","type":"paragraph"},{"content":"BONDS: U.S. Treasury yields rose on the news, though the increases moderated as the morning progressed. The 2-year Treasury yield , most sensitive to the ‌market's expectations of Fed rate action, rose 5 basis points to 4.38% after earlier rising 8 basis points. The 10-year Treasury yield rose 1 basis points to 4.776%. The 30-year yield was down 0.5 basis point to 5.239%.","type":"paragraph"},{"content":"FOREX: The dollar index rose 0.2% to 99.12.","type":"paragraph"},{"content":"COMMODITIES: The gold price fell 1.2% to $4,418, reversing some recent gains.","type":"paragraph"},{"level":1,"content":"COMMENTS:","type":"header"},{"level":1,"content":"NOEL DIXON, SENIOR MACRO STRATEGIST, STATE STREET, BOSTON:","type":"header"},{"content":"“I don't think this number changes anything really. It's all going to be about CPI, because in today's number the unemployment rate stayed steady, but if you look at wages year over year, that's the lowest since June 2021. So if Waller and Warsh and Williams, who I think are very influential, wanted to hang their hat on something, they could hang it on that and then basically focus all their energy on the CPI next week.","type":"paragraph"},{"content":"“It's all going to boil down to what that core number is going to be next week and I think the markets are going to react accordingly.”","type":"paragraph"},{"content":"ROBERT PAVLIK, SENIOR PORTFOLIO ​MANAGER, DAKOTA WEALTH IN FAIRFIELD, CONNECTICUT: \"I think it's a good sign that the economy is holding up, that it's not collapsing, despite the fact that we have higher prices.\"Now you're having to contend with market participants that are worried that the Fed is going to use this as a sort of a gateway to raise interest rates. We have higher inflation, we have steady ​employment. We have the ability to raise interest rates. \"I think that's a ridiculous move by the Federal Reserve if they do take it in September. One interest rate hike is not going to counteract the inflation caused by a decrease in supply of energy or oil.\" BROCK WEIMER, ANALYST, INVESTMENT STRATEGY, ⁠EDWARD JONES, ST. LOUIS, MISSOURI:","type":"paragraph"},{"content":"\"The August jobs report was positive across the board, in our view. The 162,000 gain in nonfarm payrolls was broad-based across goods-producing and service-providing sectors. We also received upward revisions to payroll growth for June and July, suggesting to us that hiring trends have remained steady throughout the summer. It was also encouraging that the unemployment rate held steady at 4.1% despite an increase in the ​labor force, signaling to us that widespread layoffs remain limited.\"","type":"paragraph"},{"level":1,"content":"BRET KENWELL, US INVESTMENT ANALYST, ETORO, NEW YORK:","type":"header"},{"content":"“The August jobs report was a step in the right direction, even if investors interpret it through a 'good news is bad news' lens, potentially weighing on risk assets like stocks and recently revived cryptoassets like Bitcoin. Regardless of how investors view the labor market, the Fed considers it broadly consistent with full employment, and today’s report ​will likely reinforce that view. In the Fed’s eyes, the labor market is holding up, which means inflation remains the bigger problem.","type":"paragraph"},{"content":"\"Next week’s CPI report will be closely watched with the Fed’s interest-rate decision looming in mid-September. With rate-hike odds currently near 50-50, inflation data may carry more weight than the jobs report in shaping the Fed’s next move. There’s still work to do before the labor market can be considered fully healthy, but the August jobs report reinforced the idea that it remains stable.”","type":"paragraph"},{"level":1,"content":"JAMIE COX, MANAGING PARTNER AT HARRIS FINANCIAL GROUP, RICHMOND, VIRGINIA:","type":"header"},{"content":"\"This is a slider in the dirt for the Federal Reserve as it contemplates interest rates later this month. There are several board members who will swing (and miss) at this pitch to advocate for higher short terms rates. The data support a hold, not a hike.\"","type":"paragraph"},{"content":"BRAD CONGER, CHIEF INVESTMENT OFFICER, HIRTLE &amp; CO., BRYN MAWR, PENNSYLVANIA:“August non-farm payrolls were stronger than expected. The headline number affirms Chairman Warsh’s assertion that the FOMC does not need ​to worry about the employment side of the mandate. Monetary restraint should depress term premiums/breakevens and help long duration outperform.","type":"paragraph"},{"content":"\"More interesting is the composition. If you squint, you might see the outlines of the AI displacement. Sectors with high AI adoption (information, financial) were weaker. Sectors that are building/equipping/powering data centers (construction, manufacturing, utilities) were stronger. That should support incomes in the lower leg of the K.”","type":"paragraph"},{"content":"SAM STOVALL, CHIEF INVESTMENT STRATEGIST, CFRA RESEARCH, NEW YORK:\"The numbers ended up ​being more than three times what was expected and that certainly has added to the confusion of what the Fed will be doing, mainly because the Fed has told us that it wants to focus on inflation over payrolls. Now that payroll numbers are substantially higher, I think that that adds to the possibility that the Fed will be at least considering.","type":"paragraph"},{"content":"\"The market has turned down because I think that indicates that investors are concerned that ‌the Fed now has more ⁠ammunition to raise rates or at least less ammunition to keep rates steady.","type":"paragraph"},{"content":"\"The real question is what happens to the market after next week's inflation data, because we really don't have any earnings left and the Fed meeting won't be until the week after. So the only thing that the market can focus on is the inflation data for next week.\"","type":"paragraph"},{"content":"GARY SCHLOSSBERG, GLOBAL STRATEGIST, WELLS FARGO INVESTMENT INSTITUTE, SAN FRANCISCO:\"We attributed some of the weakness in the job market to the productivity gains that we're beginning to see from the introduction, the absorption of artificial intelligence into the economy. But this report simply reinforces the view that the economy has had a good deal of momentum coming through the summer.","type":"paragraph"},{"content":"\"With oil prices moving up, though, that does run the risk of squeezing household incomes a bit and slowing consumer spending, which hasn't been spectacular, but certainly supported.","type":"paragraph"},{"content":"\"Today's report going into the meeting, I think certainly puts more pressure on the CPI to come in very friendly to avoid a rate increase by the Federal Reserve. I think if there are signs that in consumer prices inflation is moving up, that just reinforces the view that the Fed will be raising rates on September 16th.\"","type":"paragraph"},{"level":1,"content":"JOSH STEVENS, CHIEF INVESTMENT OFFICER, CRESALTA INVESTMENT MANAGEMENT, GREENWOOD VILLAGE, COLORADO:","type":"header"},{"content":"\"This is obviously a very volatile ​report, but it does mean that at this point the Fed's focus is going to be on ​inflation.","type":"paragraph"},{"content":"\"The stakes are going to stay high for the inflation data next week. The argument ⁠about the labor market remaining weak has some validity, but if employment shows strength in next few months, we’d see a pickup in wages, and that would get the Fed’s attention.","type":"paragraph"},{"content":"\"This shows a positive direction for the overall economy. Things got a little bit disjointed with the Iran war but it does seem like some of the momentum we saw in the beginning of the year is back.\"","type":"paragraph"},{"level":1,"content":"CHRISTOPHER HODGE, CHIEF U.S. ECONOMIST, NATIXIS, NEW YORK:","type":"header"},{"content":"\"Even after July’s report, most policymakers seemed sanguine about the labor market so inflation will clearly still be the primary driver of near-term policy. A softer print today could have given some wiggle room ​on what was considered to the an acceptable core CPI print, but clearly we didn’t get that. Instead, the onus will continue to be on the doves to get a disinflationary print that justifies another hold – we are putting that bogey at about 20bps. Absent that, the Fed will ​likely hike in September.\"","type":"paragraph"},{"level":1,"content":"TIM URBANOWICZ, CHIEF INVESTMENT STRATEGIST, INNOVATOR ETFS, ⁠GOLDMAN SACHS ASSET MANAGEMENT, NEW YORK:","type":"header"},{"content":"\"Today’s report was strong, and we could see markets take a react first, ask questions later approach. but once the dust settles, we think investors will realize the broader trend of labor market rebalancing is still intact.”","type":"paragraph"},{"level":1,"content":"PETER CARDILLO, CHIEF MARKET ECONOMIST, SPARTAN CAPITAL SECURITIES, NEW YORK:","type":"header"},{"content":"“This is a strong report considering market consensus, and a strong rebound from the previous month. Hourly wages, not a problem. That's actually positive here.","type":"paragraph"},{"content":"“It shows that the labor market is solid. There's no evidence here of rising wage inflation, even though they're a little bit higher than expected on a yearly basis, but 3.1% is more or less what we've had for a sustained period of time. So I don't think this will be a problem for the Fed, and certainly it shows that the jobs market is in solid condition.","type":"paragraph"},{"content":"“Remember next week we have the CPI and PPI and I expect them ⁠to more or less be ​a repeat of what we saw in July and August. And if that's the case, I think that the Fed stays on hold. (Fed Chair) Kevin Warsh certainly talked a tough talk on inflation, but he's in no real hurry to raise ​rates, and I think he's going to hold out.”","type":"paragraph"},{"level":1,"content":"BRIAN JACOBSEN, CHIEF ECONOMIC STRATEGIST, ANNEX WEALTH MANAGEMENT, MENOMONEE FALLS, WISCONSIN:","type":"header"},{"content":"\"The drop in employment in July was an illusion. That’s the problem with trying to trade the headlines. Data get revised. The drop in local education was a seasonal adjustment illusion.","type":"paragraph"},{"content":"\"The index for aggregate hours and aggregate earnings both advanced nicely.","type":"paragraph"},{"content":"\"The labor force participation rate improved, but it’s hard to believe the labor force increased by 683,000 in August. The BLS has some soul searching to do when it comes ​to seasonal adjustments.","type":"paragraph"},{"content":"\"If there’s a cloud behind the silver lining of the report, it’s that the number of people who have been unemployed for 27 weeks and over increased by 159,000. A “no-hire, no-fire” situation is OK for those with jobs, but tough for those without.\"","type":"paragraph"}],"promo_items":{"images":[{"url":"https://cloudfront-us-east-2.images.arcpublishing.com/reuters/KG62NZPTSZODJMOPSFYVH7AZME.jpg","caption":"A sign posted outside a Target store states the company is hiring in Encinitas, California, U.S., March 30, 2026. REUTERS/Mike Blake/File Photo","type":"image","resizer_url":"https://www.reuters.com/resizer/v2/KG62NZPTSZODJMOPSFYVH7AZME.jpg?auth=bc43c1dcd6d0340ab26a4ccd498645e01b7137c8dfc842e6bd56d814b95490c0","location":"ENCINITAS, CA, UNITED STATES","id":"KG62NZPTSZODJMOPSFYVH7AZME","authors":"Mike Blake","alt_text":"Job hiring sign at Target store in California","width":5442,"height":3628,"subtitle":"Job hiring sign at Target store in California","slug":"USA-ECONOMY","updated_at":"2026-09-04T12:50:20Z","company":"Reuters","purchase_licensing_path":"https://www.reutersconnect.com/item/job-hiring-sign-at-target-store-in-california/dGFnOnJldXRlcnMuY29tLDIwMjY6bmV3c21sX1JDMjdGS0E4QTNGWA%3D%3D/?utm_medium=rcom-article-media&utm_campaign=rcom-rcp-lead"}]},"related_content":{"images":[{"url":"https://cloudfront-us-east-2.images.arcpublishing.com/reuters/KG62NZPTSZODJMOPSFYVH7AZME.jpg","caption":"A sign posted outside a Target store states the company is hiring in Encinitas, California, U.S., March 30, 2026. REUTERS/Mike Blake/File Photo","type":"image","resizer_url":"https://www.reuters.com/resizer/v2/KG62NZPTSZODJMOPSFYVH7AZME.jpg?auth=bc43c1dcd6d0340ab26a4ccd498645e01b7137c8dfc842e6bd56d814b95490c0","location":"ENCINITAS, CA, UNITED STATES","id":"KG62NZPTSZODJMOPSFYVH7AZME","authors":"Mike Blake","alt_text":"Job hiring sign at Target store in California","width":5442,"height":3628,"subtitle":"Job hiring sign at Target store in California","slug":"USA-ECONOMY","updated_at":"2026-09-04T12:50:20Z","company":"Reuters","purchase_licensing_path":"https://www.reutersconnect.com/item/job-hiring-sign-at-target-store-in-california/dGFnOnJldXRlcnMuY29tLDIwMjY6bmV3c21sX1JDMjdGS0E4QTNGWA%3D%3D/?utm_medium=rcom-article-media&utm_campaign=rcom-rcp-lead"}],"videos":[{"id":"RW003503092026RP1","type":"video","subtype":"application/x-mpegURL","external_id":"RW003503092026RP1","title":"Macro Matters: Is America's workforce getting too old?","description":"Americans are stepping away from the labor market at one of the fastest rates in nearly eight decades, with an ageing workforce and rising retirements among baby boomers a key driver. Mark Fleming from First American told Reuters that as the baby boomers age out, and without enough immigration to replace them, the U.S. labor force will shrink, but AI could help bridge the gap by driving productivity gains.","duration":332.5,"transcript_data":{"transcript":"Few Americans are working or looking for a job, so is the labour market hitting reset. Americans are stepping away from the labour market at one of the fastest rates we've seen in nearly eight decades. That's pushed the unemployment rate down to 4.1% in July, the lowest in more than a year. But what's behind the drop? The answer matters not just for the jobs outlook but potentially for the Fed's next move on interest rates. Well, Mark Fleming is Chief Economist at First American. So Mark, Friday's jobs report should tell us whether the US labour market is genuinely softening or whether last month's weak data was a one-off. So, what are you expecting? Well, the negative print in last month's data was actually very unique in the sense there was seasonal changes in 50,000 local government workers being recorded as laid off, essentially, because of the end of the school year. Private job creation was actually still positive, and the expectation is that we'll get positive growth again. Not much. We don't need much positive growth in large part because of, as you mentioned, things like the demographics of aging, having people exiting the workforce. Let's talk about the seasonality. The BLS seasonally adjusts the data to smooth out predictable swings, But we're still seeing some pretty big month-to-month moves. So should we be looking at the broader trend rather than reading too much into every single print? Yeah, seasonality is essentially calculated by backwards looking at the trends, the non-seasonal trends to try and smooth them out. And they can be wrong. And even more so, a lot of the government statistics recently have a lot more volatility and revisions in months due to the lower survey responses. So, yeah, at this point, one month does not make a trend. You definitely want to look at like a moving average. Or some sort of smoothed out version of things. Some economists see signs that retirements may be accelerating as a booming stock market gives people more financial freedom to step away. So is this simply a headwind the US labour market just can't avoid? It's not just sort of having enough money in the stock market, meaning I don't have to work anymore. It is more broadly the aging of society. Baby boomers are hitting retirement age and choosing to retire. That's a long-run demographic headwind, honestly, to the economy that has been expected, though. We all obviously know how aging goes. You can forecast you will be a year older a year from now. And that's an expectation that the labor force without immigration will actually shrink as baby boomers age out. Let's talk about the immigration factor here and President Trump's crackdown, Likely weighing on participation and changing the makeup of the workforce. So can the US economy adapt to having a smaller labour pool? I think the economy can certainly adapt to having fewer people working in the labor force, whether it's due to immigrants not entering or people retiring. Certainly when it comes to the advent of AI, right, AI would make people more productive. So you could still grow the economy with the same or even a smaller labor force as AI adoption creates increased productivity. On the other hand, though, a stronger hiring environment could actually push the unemployment rate higher if it draws more people back into the job hunt. So could breaking out of the low hire, low fire cycle actually be bad news? It depends. You can have scenarios where you have high hire, high fire, and that actually maintains a relatively stable unemployment rate. It's just a lot of churn in the market. We actually saw that prior to the global financial crisis in the US. So having more people enter can be a good thing, Can be a bad thing. It depends on what employers want to do at the same time. Well, you did mention AI, Mark, and initial claims for unemployment benefits remained low in July, Despite some high-profile cuts at companies like Visa, Uber and Microsoft. So our fears about AI taking everyone's jobs, just getting ahead of reality. A little bit. Well, there are certainly announcements. So the Challenger and Gray data suggests that a little over almost 200,000 people have been laid off this year up to July because of AI notices saying it was related to AI. But the labor market itself is 160 plus million people. So it's still a very small share of the overall labor market. Meanwhile if August payrolls do rebound that would reinforce the picture of a labour market that's holding up but let's flip that around. Could a weak jobs report derail the feds hawkish tilt or is that a train that's already left the station? That's a great point. I think it really comes down to if it's a weaker jobs report, They might be less likely to raise rates in September. It doesn't mean rate cuts are back on the table. I think it's very clear from the hawkish comments of Chairman Warsh that they're going to fight the inflation fight. And as we said, one month number does not make a trend, Particularly in this kind of data. So they would take it into account for the September meeting. But I think it doesn't change the idea that there are going to be rate increases in the coming months. So finally Mark, Kevin Warsh said that the housing market is under strain but added broader financial conditions aren't particularly restrictive. So where does that leave the mortgage industry? Is it facing an even tougher road ahead? I think that's already happened essentially. The increase in the long-run yields to the almost 5% range on the 10-year Treasury is in part because of that expectation of future rate increases at the end of this year and next year. So the housing market has essentially already had the pain baked into it. Although I don't think the housing market is as sensitive to interest rates. In a 6.5% or a 7% interest rate, is that really going to change people's purchase decisions that are not really rate-related at this point anyway? That was Mark Fleming from First American. Don't forget, you can watch more videos on Reuters.com."},"published_time":"2026-09-03T14:06:09Z","updated_time":"2026-09-03T14:31:30Z","thumbnail":{"url":"https://ajo.prod.reuters.tv/api/v2/img/6a997dd6e4b0f9a8fa3924f5-1788445890220","caption":"Americans are stepping away from the labor market at one of the fastest rates in nearly eight decades, with an ageing workforce and rising retirements among baby boomers a key driver. Mark Fleming from First American told Reuters that as the baby boomers age out, and without enough immigration to replace them, the U.S. labor force will shrink, but AI could help bridge the gap by driving productivity gains.","type":"image","resizer_url":"https://ajo.prod.reuters.tv/api/v2/img/6a997dd6e4b0f9a8fa3924f5-1788445890220"},"source":{"hls":"https://ajo.prod.reuters.tv/v3/playlist/787116/master.m3u8"},"channels":[{"id":"Macro_Matters","name":"Macro Matters","regions":["US"]},{"id":"Test_World_News_US","name":"[TEST Video] World","regions":["US"]},{"id":"HPUS","name":"RCOM Homepage US","regions":["US"]},{"id":"13978","name":"US News","regions":["US"]},{"id":"6ffc0233e09c26943b265ef3abd575b2d872818b","name":"Business","regions":["US"]}],"advert_info":{"advert_params":[{"key":"adfriendly","value":true}],"advert_zone":"/4735792/reuters.com/markets/stocks"},"meta_data":[{"key":"upstream-description","value":"Americans are stepping away from the labor market at one of the fastest rates in nearly eight decades, with an ageing workforce and rising retirements among baby boomers a key driver. Mark Fleming from First American told Reuters that as the baby boomers age out, and without enough immigration to replace them, the U.S. labor force will shrink, but AI could help bridge the gap by driving productivity gains."},{"key":"copyright","value":"(c) 2026 Thomson Reuters, unless otherwise identified. Full statement available at https://www.thomsonreuters.com/en/policies/copyright.html"},{"key":"package-no-social","value":"Yes"},{"key":"hidden","value":"false"},{"key":"dateline","value":"Reuters, Reuters, SEP 03"},{"key":"package-restrictions","value":"For Reuters platforms only.  . For Reuters customers only."},{"key":"package-mood","value":"Neutral"},{"key":"link","value":"tag:reuters.com,2026:newsml_RW003503092026RP1:5"},{"key":"upstream-channel-code","value":"vty454"},{"key":"upstream-title","value":"Macro Matters: Is America's workforce getting too old?"},{"key":"external-asset-id","value":"285_RW003503092026RP1"},{"key":"lmp-feed","value":"lp"},{"key":"package-notes","value":"Immigration, Nonfarm, Retirement, Trump, Warsh, Jobs, Labor Market, Housing, Unemployment, Interest Rates, Layoffs, Payrolls, Fed, AI"},{"key":"publisher-name","value":"reuters.com"},{"key":"package-format","value":"Other"},{"key":"region","value":"Remote"},{"key":"byline","value":"London, UK"}],"usn":"RW003503092026RP1"},{"id":"RW340017092026RP1","type":"video","subtype":"application/x-mpegURL","external_id":"RW340017092026RP1","title":"Macro Matters: Fed hike 'goes a long way to improve credibility'","description":"The Federal Reserve hiked rates on Wednesday, and that's helped regain the confidence of bond markets, James Knightley of ING told Reuters. He added, though, that stubborn inflation will likely force them to go further - and bring policymakers once again into conflict with President Trump. ","duration":357.1,"transcript_data":{"transcript":"The Fed delivers its first hike in three years but where does it go from here? This is Macro Matters and we're talking the Fed. Markets wanted to see a clear signal that the central bank is committed to fighting inflation and the Federal Reserve delivered. Wednesday's hike was emphatic and unanimous, with most policymakers seeing another rise this year. In their own forecasts and four of them James Knightley is chief international economist, ING. James, the market, certainly in US bonds, had been asking questions about the Fed's willingness to crack down on inflation. Has this put? Those worries to bed? It's certainly gone a long way to improve their credibility on this, friends. And that, really, I think, kicked off with the Jackson Hole conference when Kevin Warsh did sound notably more hawkwish. Talking about the fact that inflation has been too high for too long in an environment where the jobs market is at full employment and where financial conditions are not tight enough. And he carried through. We got the rate hike yesterday. And, as you say, there is the expectation that this is not the end. We will get at least one more from here. Well, the chances of a hike at the next meeting in October, which is only just before the midterms, are seen as 50-50. For you, what would be the deciding factor? Well, we have got one jobs report and one set of inflation prints between now and then. And I guess the risk is, if they are hot, the Fed under Kevin Walsh could say, well, look, we just need to get this over and done with and we need to continue Onwards. But if it's a little bit mixed, if we see a bit of a pullback in those hiring numbers and core inflation comes in at 0.2, I think what we'd likely see is a hold. The Fed probably will feel a little bit uncomfortable doing a second hike six days ahead of the midterm elections and being seen by some to be interfering, Perhaps, in the debate about what's going on in the election. So for me, it would need to be seeing really hot jobs and inflation data to deliver an October hike. I think a December move is more probable. Well, so far it seems that Kevin Warsh has some room to move as far as the President is concerned. President Trump attacked the decision, but not Warsh personally. What if that honeymoon period runs out? Yeah, he did seem to be arguing that it was more other people forcing Kevin Warsh's hands. Where I think that's actually probably, if anything, the other way around, given the comments we've been getting from Kevin Warsh. But yes, you're right. If we do see another rate hike, especially at that October FOMC meeting, I think the gloves will be off from the president and he will be going much, much harder on Kevin Warsh. But again, Kevin Warsh will say, 'Look, you know, our job is an independent central bank.' We've got to respond to the data. Inflation has been too high for too long. And actually, you've got to worry about broader borrowing costs. You know, mortgage rates are hitting 7% here in the United States because the long end of the curve has been rising so dramatically. So I think he's got to put it in this sort of all-encompassing message to the president that it's not just the short rates that matter. We've got to keep an eye on the long end of the curve. And that's arguably more impactful on what voters are feeling and doing. Will we normally expect the long end of the curve to also move higher during a hiking cycle from the Fed, Do you expect that to happen from the levels that we're at now? Well, we've seen a really sharp move higher in longer-dated Treasury yields over the last few months. And I think this has actually stemmed that flow to a certain extent. It's reinforced the credibility that the central bank is there to actually keep a grip on the inflation metrics. But the real problem, the real driver of what's pushing up the longer-dated borrowing costs, is not inflation or inflation concerns or the Fed. It's actually fiscal policy. And what we're doing is we're just borrowing far too much money here in the United States. And that is what really Needs to be addressed to deliver lower, longer-term borrowing costs. What else is concerning the bond markets? You mentioned fiscal policy and, of course, The upcoming midterms. But, of course, energy prices factor heavily into this as well, don't they? They do. It's expected inflation. And that's what Kevin Warsh suggested The Fed have got to be watchful of second round price effects. Now, right now, there is obviously this move higher in gasoline and diesel and airline fares, and that's just going to keep Headline inflation: that bit more elevated But I think what the Fed is really watching is those second round effects. Does it feed through to the prices of other goods and services? We would argue that there's probably little evidence of that to materialise. And that's because the jobs market is so weak. What you need to see to deliver second round price effects is strong wage growth. And we haven't got that here in the United States. Wages are rising just 3%. So as I say, I don't think we're going to see that second round story that keeps the inflation metrics moving against the Fed. I think if we can get a resolution to what's going on in the Middle East, energy prices can drop and the underlying inflationary pressures in the economy Are relatively benign. So that's why I would say if we do see a hike, it's going to be Maybe just one more from here and actually a long pause before potentially, as those lower energy costs feed through that we're anticipating, That could potentially deliver an environment for rate cuts later on in 2027. James, does the Fed's move put pressure on other central banks to follow suit? Of course, the Bank of England held tight today, but they did sound worried about inflation. And we have the Bank of Japan coming up tomorrow morning. Yep. I think the Bank of Japan is certainly going to be hiking rates. Inflation is pushing above target and they're coming from such a low interest rate environment. So I think that's a done deal. The Bank of England, yep, they didn't raise rates, but they have certainly alluded to The possibility that we could see a couple of rate hikes if inflation doesn't fall quickly. And of course, we know that energy prices are going to push inflation higher. So there does look a chance that the Bank of England does follow suit eventually. And of course, the ECB, The ECB has already hiked rates twice, and we are now probably going to be getting a third hike again in December because that inflation backdrop from the energy side just keeps them at central banks. They just want to just stamp down on the potential for second round price effects. And I think just heading it off probably makes sense. That was James Knightley of ING. Don't forget you can watch more videos on Reuters.com."},"published_time":"2026-09-17T14:13:11Z","updated_time":"2026-09-17T14:13:12Z","thumbnail":{"url":"https://ajo.prod.reuters.tv/api/v2/img/6aabf474e4b019e07971e9f3","caption":"The Federal Reserve hiked rates on Wednesday, and that's helped regain the confidence of bond markets, James Knightley of ING told Reuters. He added, though, that stubborn inflation will likely force them to go further - and bring policymakers once again into conflict with President Trump. ","type":"image","resizer_url":"https://ajo.prod.reuters.tv/api/v2/img/6aabf474e4b019e07971e9f3"},"source":{"hls":"https://ajo.prod.reuters.tv/v3/playlist/788228/master.m3u8"},"channels":[{"id":"Macro_Matters","name":"Macro Matters","regions":["US"]},{"id":"Markets","name":"Markets","regions":["US"]},{"id":"MarketsNow","name":"Markets Now","regions":["US"]},{"id":"6ffc0233e09c26943b265ef3abd575b2d872818b","name":"Business","regions":["US"]}],"advert_info":{"advert_params":[{"key":"adfriendly","value":true}],"advert_zone":"/4735792/reuters.com/markets/stocks"},"meta_data":[{"key":"upstream-description","value":"The Federal Reserve hiked rates on Wednesday, and that's helped regain the confidence of bond markets, James Knightley of ING told Reuters. He added, though, that stubborn inflation will likely force them to go further - and bring policymakers once again into conflict with President Trump. "},{"key":"copyright","value":"(c) 2026 Thomson Reuters, unless otherwise identified. Full statement available at https://www.thomsonreuters.com/en/policies/copyright.html"},{"key":"package-no-social","value":"Yes"},{"key":"hidden","value":"false"},{"key":"dateline","value":"Reuters, Reuters, SEP 17"},{"key":"package-restrictions","value":"For Reuters platforms only. . For Reuters customers only."},{"key":"package-mood","value":"Neutral"},{"key":"link","value":"tag:reuters.com,2026:newsml_RW340017092026RP1:4"},{"key":"upstream-channel-code","value":"vty454"},{"key":"upstream-title","value":"Macro Matters: Fed hike 'goes a long way to improve credibility'"},{"key":"external-asset-id","value":"285_RW340017092026RP1"},{"key":"lmp-feed","value":"lp"},{"key":"package-notes","value":"Federal Reserve, Kevin Warsh"},{"key":"publisher-name","value":"reuters.com"},{"key":"package-format","value":"Other"},{"key":"region","value":"Remote"},{"key":"byline","value":"London, UK"}],"usn":"RW340017092026RP1"},{"id":"RW178210092026RP1","type":"video","subtype":"application/x-mpegURL","external_id":"RW178210092026RP1","title":"Macro Matters: ECB hike a 'no brainer' - but are more to come?","description":"The ECB has raised interest rates for the second time this year, with President Christine Lagarde calling the move a 'no brainer' - and investors are betting on more hikes to come. Simon Wells from HSBC told Reuters that the eurozone's resilience gives the ECB room to tighten further, but warns that the impact of higher rates could catch up with activity later.","duration":306.33,"transcript_data":{"transcript":"'The ECB raises rates again. An insurance hike or more to come. The ECB has raised interest rates for the second time this year, moving decisively to contain soaring energy prices fuelled by the Iran war. Euro-area inflation is now at its highest in almost three years, and the ECB has emerged as the most hawkish of the G7's major central banks. But how long can it stay there, and how much further is the ECB prepared to go? Well, let's ask Simon Wells, Chief European Economist at HSBC.' 'So, Simon, the ECB's latest projections see inflation averaging at 3% this year before easing to 2.5% in 2027. So, with oil still above 100 bucks a barrel, are those forecasts already out of date?' 'Yes, I mean, they are. The cutoff date for the forecast has probably taken some time mid-August. So, we've seen a bit of development there. Also seen a lot of development on gas ofcourse, as well, which is important to Europe. So, yes, in a sense of if you really wanted a number for future inflation a bit dated, but we've got to look at the signal. And I think, given where the forecast was cut off, probably I would have in fact expected inflation to be 0.1 lower across the board, something like that. So, they send us a little bit of a signal there. And core inflation, their measure of core inflation is 2.3 in 2028. That's another signal that maybe, yeah, why will the guard stop short of saying our reaction function is very understood, perhaps telling us, you know, there is risk of more to come. So, markets are pricing in one more rate hike this year, followed by another one or two next year.' 'So, what's your stance? Can the economy withstand that much tightening?' 'Well, I think that's one of the reasons why the ECB is thinking about tightening more, because we have had this resilience. This was something that Lagarde talked about a lot. We've seen it in the Q2 GDP numbers. We're seeing that come through in the survey, suggesting it's going to continue into Q3. The beginning of the year, given the energy shock, given Europe's energy-intensive manufacturing, You would have thought something would be worse because that doesn't mean that it won't catch up with activity later, so they will be cautious. But for now, they're probably thinking, well, is another 25 basis points here or there really going to derail the economy and the jobs market?' 'Well, the Fed, the ECB, Bank of England, the Bank of Japan, they're all facing very different inflation challenges. But, could those diverging policy paths constrain the ECB or create new problems ahead for it?' 'I mean, I think this is one of those things, and speaking as a former central banker, where, you know, everyone says, 'Oh, well, the Bank of England always follows the Fed with a six-month lag' or whatever it is. When it comes down to it, I think the ECB has shown it can act independently and it will act independently. But at the end of the day, a lot of these central banks are all responding to the same global shocks. So, there is a degree of co-relation. So, of course, if we see further rises in energy prices, they'll all probably be thinking this is dragging on a lot longer than we initially expected. They'll be looking maybe to pull that rate hike lever again. But at the end of the day, call me boring, but I genuinely think they are trying to respond to their own inflation outlets.' 'But, the AfD's victory in a closely-watched German regional election has raised fears of a wider far-right surge across Europe. So will politics factor into the ECB's thinking, particularly with a French election on the horizon?' 'Well, they'll tell you that it won't, but ofcourse it will. What we're seeing in Germany, what we're seeing elsewhere. I mean, it's part of a common trend that we're seeing across Europe. And I think if you look at the way yields have moved over the past three months, You've already isolated that France is perhaps the biggest issue. So, increasingly, the market is looking forward to the French budget. It is looking forward to potentially what the presidential election will bring. But, ultimately, I think whether you look at recent UK history and its experience there or French history back to the early 1980s, eventually the markets will probably prevent huge amounts of fiscal expansion, even if we don't get quite as much tightening as the European Commission would like.' 'So, finally, Simon, speculation is mounting that Christine Lagarde could leave the ECB before her term ends next year. Could the prospect of a leadership change start to influence the market's rate expectations?' 'Yeah, I mean, it adds a new level of uncertainty, right? She previously said she'd only stay till the end of the year. The end of the year is looming, and today she totally cut off any question and said we'd all be the first to know. But we've also recently seen stories about, well, Isabel Schnabel will leave early as well, And they've been quite the team, and Schnabel obviously has been a bit more of a hawkish member. So, yes, I think it does add a bit of uncertainty. But, if you're asking me if I know where she's going to go and who will replace her, I'm afraid I don't.' 'That was Simon Wells from HSBC. Don't forget you can watch more videos on Reuters.com'"},"published_time":"2026-09-10T14:47:19Z","updated_time":"2026-09-10T14:47:20Z","thumbnail":{"url":"https://ajo.prod.reuters.tv/api/v2/img/6aa2c216e4b01915ce4b0ece","caption":"The ECB has raised interest rates for the second time this year, with President Christine Lagarde calling the move a 'no brainer' - and investors are betting on more hikes to come. Simon Wells from HSBC told Reuters that the eurozone's resilience gives the ECB room to tighten further, but warns that the impact of higher rates could catch up with activity later.","type":"image","resizer_url":"https://ajo.prod.reuters.tv/api/v2/img/6aa2c216e4b01915ce4b0ece"},"source":{"hls":"https://ajo.prod.reuters.tv/v3/playlist/787668/master.m3u8"},"channels":[{"id":"Macro_Matters","name":"Macro Matters","regions":["US"]},{"id":"HPUS","name":"RCOM Homepage US","regions":["US"]},{"id":"6ffc0233e09c26943b265ef3abd575b2d872818b","name":"Business","regions":["US"]}],"advert_info":{"advert_params":[{"key":"adfriendly","value":true}],"advert_zone":"/4735792/reuters.com/markets/stocks"},"meta_data":[{"key":"upstream-description","value":"The ECB has raised interest rates for the second time this year, with President Christine Lagarde calling the move a 'no brainer' - and investors are betting on more hikes to come. Simon Wells from HSBC told Reuters that the eurozone's resilience gives the ECB room to tighten further, but warns that the impact of higher rates could catch up with activity later."},{"key":"copyright","value":"(c) 2026 Thomson Reuters, unless otherwise identified. Full statement available at https://www.thomsonreuters.com/en/policies/copyright.html"},{"key":"package-no-social","value":"Yes"},{"key":"hidden","value":"false"},{"key":"dateline","value":"Reuters, Reuters, SEP 10"},{"key":"package-restrictions","value":"For Reuters platforms only. . For Reuters customers only."},{"key":"package-mood","value":"Neutral"},{"key":"link","value":"tag:reuters.com,2026:newsml_RW178210092026RP1:4"},{"key":"upstream-channel-code","value":"vty454"},{"key":"upstream-title","value":"Macro Matters: ECB hike a 'no brainer' - but are more to come?"},{"key":"external-asset-id","value":"285_RW178210092026RP1"},{"key":"lmp-feed","value":"lp"},{"key":"package-notes","value":"ECB, Europe, Eurozone, Inflation, Lagarde, AfD, Interest Rates"},{"key":"publisher-name","value":"reuters.com"},{"key":"package-format","value":"Other"},{"key":"region","value":"Remote"},{"key":"byline","value":"London, UK"}],"usn":"RW178210092026RP1"},{"id":"RW830027082026RP1","type":"video","subtype":"application/x-mpegURL","external_id":"RW830027082026RP1","title":"Macro Matters: Can billionaire taxes fix Europe's budget?","description":"Fiscally hawkish EU countries are calling for a much smaller seven-year EU budget as governments are forced to tighten their belts at home. But could Europe’s billionaires help fill the gap? George Buckley from Nomura told Reuters that taxes would need to rise aggressively to make a meaningful difference, but a coordinated euro-area approach could make it harder for the super-rich to leave.","duration":314.86,"transcript_data":{"transcript":"'Europe's budget battle is about to begin, so can Brussels avoid a bust-up? Europe is back from its summer break and the headaches are already piling up. September kicks off Europe's budget season and this year the stakes are even higher. Brussels is racing to strike a deal before elections make a compromise even harder. The next four months could be critical for the EU's stability and whether leaders can convince voters that Brussels is spending their money wisely. Well, George Buckley is Chief European Economist at Nomura. So George, in Berlin, six like-minded governments are currently meeting to push for hundreds of billions of euros to be cut from the EU's next seven-year budget. So, how important is a substantial reduction, and what happens if a deal stalls?' 'Yeah, it's very difficult because this budget is very sizeable. It's close to €2 trillion. And we don't know precisely how much these countries would like to trim off that. But we're talking potentially hundreds of billions of euros. But no specific numbers have been given yet Now, I don't think we're really going to get those numbers until maybe the council meeting in October. But there's certainly a push among both sides to get this solved before the end of the year. And as you say, before those crucial elections next year.' 'Well, we've seen the U.S. Treasury step in to push bond yields lower, but what could force the ECB to do the same? Could the ECB's transmission protection instrument be put to use?' 'Yes, I think France is in an interesting position because everyone's talking about the TPI, with respect to France. It really does require the markets to move in quite an aggressive way against France in order for the ECB to step in and use the TPI. It also requires France to be following relatively strict fiscal discipline in order for the ECB to do that. So, there is conditionality associated with this. But it's also, we've seen French bond spreads relative to German yields rise quite noticeably. They're very similar levels now to where they were about a year ago, when there was also a big discussion about how to solve the, in that case, the 2026 budget. So, I suspect we're going to see something very similar in the run up to the presidency. I don't think that the ECB is going to have to step in because I think that France realises what position it's in and will have to comply and have to reduce its deficit. It will do all it can to do that.' 'Well, all these risks, George, could refocus minds on joint euro issuance. There have been numerous proposals for jointly backed eurozone or EU bonds in recent years. So, as that moment finally arrived? What are the arguments against using it?' 'Probably the most well-cited study on this is one by Olivier Blanchard, who would like to see bond issuance stepped up, But recognises the fact that if you try and do this with new issuance, it's going to take a long time to get to the sort of levels of risk-free assets that you would like for the euro area. So, he's suggested that maybe we should convert, maybe a quarter, of all debt into jointly issued debt. You can see this, not surprisingly, that there's a number of countries who are not in favour of that for various reasons, the moral hazard and the risk sharing reasons. So, I think there are questions, but I think it's going to take a long time to get to the point at which we have a risk free asset. But it would do wonders for the euro area, potentially, if that was the case and if it could be something which could be sellable to these northern Europeans countries.' 'So, finally, George, attention is also turning to Europe's billionaires. Some argue that policymakers need to find ways to court them, tax them and regulate them. So, could targeting the super wealthy ease some of the EU's budget pressures?' 'Well, I think some countries think it could. And, you know, there are some problems with these sort of tax raising measures. If you try and raise taxes on what is basically a very small tax base, you need to raise taxes quite aggressively to make any major difference to the contribution from revenues into the EU budget. There is also a lot of resistance among those countries who would much prefer to be able to control their own income tax raising ventures rather than leaving that to the European Union. So I think there's certainly a lot against it. But from a sense of fairness and, you know, to some extent, modest revenue generation, I think there's a case to be made. And the other point is, will people leave if they're getting taxed? Well, if you were doing it on just one country, they might. But if you're doing it across the entirety of the euro area or the EU, then it's much more difficult to leave and go somewhere local to avoid taxes because the taxes are happening across every country in the European Union. So, there's a lot of positives and negatives for this, but I'm sure, it's a debate which we'll rumble on.' 'That was George Buckley from Nomura. Don't forget, you can watch more videos on Reuters.com'"},"published_time":"2026-08-27T14:39:11Z","updated_time":"2026-08-27T14:39:13Z","thumbnail":{"url":"https://ajo.prod.reuters.tv/api/v2/img/6a9044d3e4b0f9a8fa3913cf-1787841310549","caption":"Fiscally hawkish EU countries are calling for a much smaller seven-year EU budget as governments are forced to tighten their belts at home. But could Europe’s billionaires help fill the gap? George Buckley from Nomura told Reuters that taxes would need to rise aggressively to make a meaningful difference, but a coordinated euro-area approach could make it harder for the super-rich to leave.","type":"image","resizer_url":"https://ajo.prod.reuters.tv/api/v2/img/6a9044d3e4b0f9a8fa3913cf-1787841310549"},"source":{"hls":"https://ajo.prod.reuters.tv/v3/playlist/786587/master.m3u8"},"channels":[{"id":"Macro_Matters","name":"Macro Matters","regions":["US"]},{"id":"MarketsNow","name":"Markets Now","regions":["US"]},{"id":"6ffc0233e09c26943b265ef3abd575b2d872818b","name":"Business","regions":["US"]},{"id":"europe","name":"Europe","regions":["US"]}],"advert_info":{"advert_params":[{"key":"adfriendly","value":true}],"advert_zone":"/4735792/reuters.com/markets/stocks"},"meta_data":[{"key":"upstream-description","value":"Fiscally hawkish EU countries are calling for a much smaller seven-year EU budget as governments are forced to tighten their belts at home. But could Europe’s billionaires help fill the gap? George Buckley from Nomura told Reuters that taxes would need to rise aggressively to make a meaningful difference, but a coordinated euro-area approach could make it harder for the super-rich to leave."},{"key":"copyright","value":"(c) 2026 Thomson Reuters, unless otherwise identified. Full statement available at https://www.thomsonreuters.com/en/policies/copyright.html"},{"key":"package-no-social","value":"Yes"},{"key":"hidden","value":"false"},{"key":"dateline","value":"Reuters, Reuters, AUG 27"},{"key":"package-restrictions","value":"For Reuters platforms only. . For Reuters customers only."},{"key":"package-mood","value":"Neutral"},{"key":"link","value":"tag:reuters.com,2026:newsml_RW830027082026RP1:6"},{"key":"upstream-channel-code","value":"vty454"},{"key":"upstream-title","value":"Macro Matters: Can billionaire taxes fix Europe's budget?"},{"key":"external-asset-id","value":"285_RW830027082026RP1"},{"key":"lmp-feed","value":"lp"},{"key":"package-notes","value":"OATs, France, European Commission, Billionaires, ECB, Debt, Macron, EU Council, Bunds, Yields, Merz, Brussels, Issuance, Costa, Budget"},{"key":"publisher-name","value":"reuters.com"},{"key":"package-format","value":"Other"},{"key":"region","value":"Remote"},{"key":"byline","value":"London, UK"}],"usn":"RW830027082026RP1"},{"id":"RW679720082026RP1","type":"video","subtype":"application/x-mpegURL","external_id":"RW679720082026RP1","title":"Macro Matters: Is the Fed or Treasury calling the shots?","description":"Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh has promised that the U.S. central bank will deliver price stability, but Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent’s decision to double buybacks of longer-dated debt may complicate those efforts. Gregory Daco from EY Parthenon told Reuters that questions are mounting over how closely the two are coordinating, as markets weigh which signal carries greater influence.","duration":308.3,"transcript_data":{"transcript":"Jackson Hole has the views but Wall Street wants the interest rate clues. Traders have Jackson Hole circled in red. The spectacular backdrops may be a world away from the Fed's stuffy offices, but the views on rates matter just as much. It's the next big monetary policy waypoint, with markets looking for more detail from a new Fed chair that offers less hand-holding. So as markets are forced to do their own homework, will Kevin Warsh offer the answers? Well, let's ask Gregory Daco, Chief Economist at EY Parthenon. So Greg, much of the Fed's July debate centred on the varying inflation outlooks, but since then the data has been relatively benign so should inflation concerns still be front and centre? Yeah, I think inflation concerns are likely to continue to be front and center for the Fed, because we've seen in recent Fed communication that the bar is low for further rate hikes. But if you consider the latest data, both on the inflation front and in terms of employment, it does not signal any imminent need for a tightening from the Fed. What is more, we are in this context where we've seen long-term bond yields rise very rapidly, and that has prompted the U.S. Treasury to intervene. In the form of greater buybacks to try to put downward pressure on long-term interest rates. So we are in this very volatile economic context where policymakers are increasingly concerned about long-term interest rates, and the Fed is not really clear as to the direction of travel when it comes to the next policy move. So what do you think Kevin Warsh will add to the Jackson Hole history books? Some expect a hint at the direction of rates, others expect him to further curtail forward guidance. So, which camp are you in? Well, I think Fed chair Warsh has a lot to do in terms of his communication. We've noted that he wants to pull back on communication. But as that has happened, you've seen more communication from other Fed governors and from regional Fed presidents. So you have a lot of signals coming from different parts of the FOMC. And now, most recently, you've seen the U.S. Treasury intervene in markets, both yesterday with the announcement of a doubling of buybacks of long-end treasuries, but also a couple weeks ago with the intervention on the yen front to try to stave off a potential sell-off in U.S. Treasuries. So there's a lot that the Fed chair has the option to communicate. We're not necessarily sure that he will give much more information as to his own reaction function, which is what market investors are looking for. We should not forget that what markets are looking for is greater clarity from the Fed chair, not necessarily in terms of policy direction, but in terms of the framework the Fed share is contemplating when it comes to policy making. So let's talk about this growing intervention from the US Treasury. Are concerns growing that the two policies from the Fed and the Treasury may be at odds? I think there is increasing concern that we're seeing more intervention from the Treasury and questions around how close the collaboration is going to be between the Fed and the US Treasury. You may recall that after the July press conference, Kevin Warsh mentioned that the market participants should learn how to play ball rather than play the referee. Right now, you have two referees in the game with the U.S. Treasury and with the Fed, and markets aren't certain as to what signal has the greatest importance. Is it the signals from the different Fed governors and the different regional Fed presidents? Is it the signals from the U.S. Treasury? Is it the lack of communication from the Fed chair? Or is it the economic data? A lot of conflicting signals that make it very hard for market participants to parse what is the accurate signal. And that is really the key issue right And one of the reasons why we're seeing this upward pressure on long-term bond yields, which is creating concern and stress among some policymakers. Finally Gregory, options markets are increasingly pricing protection against a Fed pivot to rate cuts in 2027. So what's your outlook for rates from here? Are dovish bets starting to creep in? I think what we have is essentially a low bar for rate hikes still, but the economic data has been fairly benign in terms of inflation coming in around 0.2% on a month-to-month basis and easing inflationary pressures, and the labor market that is still trending around zero job growth on a month-to-month basis, but an unemployment rate that is still historically low. In this type of environment, we continue to think that the Fed will opt for a steady-state type of approach, Not moving the federal funds rate much before the end of the year and keeping it steady into early 2027. That is slightly off of consensus, which is still expecting some tightening from the Fed. But we think the optimal course for policy is actually for the Fed to remain steady and avoid putting additional pressure on interest rate sensitive sectors, because a lot of the inflation pressures are coming from non-interest rate sensitive sectors, and there's not much the Fed can do about that. That was Gregory Daco from EY Parthenon. Don't forget you can watch more videos on Reuters.com."},"published_time":"2026-08-20T15:24:09Z","updated_time":"2026-08-20T15:24:11Z","thumbnail":{"url":"https://ajo.prod.reuters.tv/api/v2/img/6a871b11e4b0fc71387352ff","caption":"Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh has promised that the U.S. central bank will deliver price stability, but Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent’s decision to double buybacks of longer-dated debt may complicate those efforts. Gregory Daco from EY Parthenon told Reuters that questions are mounting over how closely the two are coordinating, as markets weigh which signal carries greater influence.","type":"image","resizer_url":"https://ajo.prod.reuters.tv/api/v2/img/6a871b11e4b0fc71387352ff"},"source":{"hls":"https://ajo.prod.reuters.tv/v3/playlist/786078/master.m3u8"},"channels":[{"id":"Macro_Matters","name":"Macro Matters","regions":["US"]},{"id":"6ffc0233e09c26943b265ef3abd575b2d872818b","name":"Business","regions":["US"]}],"advert_info":{"advert_params":[{"key":"adfriendly","value":true}],"advert_zone":"/4735792/reuters.com/markets/stocks"},"meta_data":[{"key":"upstream-description","value":"Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh has promised that the U.S. central bank will deliver price stability, but Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent’s decision to double buybacks of longer-dated debt may complicate those efforts. Gregory Daco from EY Parthenon told Reuters that questions are mounting over how closely the two are coordinating, as markets weigh which signal carries greater influence."},{"key":"copyright","value":"(c) 2026 Thomson Reuters, unless otherwise identified. Full statement available at https://www.thomsonreuters.com/en/policies/copyright.html"},{"key":"package-no-social","value":"Yes"},{"key":"hidden","value":"false"},{"key":"dateline","value":"Reuters, Reuters, AUG 20"},{"key":"package-restrictions","value":"For Reuters platforms only. . For Reuters customers only."},{"key":"package-mood","value":"Neutral"},{"key":"link","value":"tag:reuters.com,2026:newsml_RW679720082026RP1:4"},{"key":"upstream-channel-code","value":"vty454"},{"key":"upstream-title","value":"Macro Matters: Is the Fed or Treasury calling the shots?"},{"key":"external-asset-id","value":"285_RW679720082026RP1"},{"key":"lmp-feed","value":"lp"},{"key":"package-notes","value":"Symposium, Employment, Central Banks, Jackson Hole, Inflation, Consumers, Warsh, FOMC, Bessent, Treasury, Payrolls, Fed"},{"key":"publisher-name","value":"reuters.com"},{"key":"package-format","value":"Other"},{"key":"region","value":"Remote"},{"key":"byline","value":"London, UK"}],"usn":"RW679720082026RP1"},{"id":"RW518613082026RP1","type":"video","subtype":"application/x-mpegURL","external_id":"RW518613082026RP1","title":"Macro Matters: Fed's September hike 'isn't off the table'","description":"Traders are dialling back bets on a September Fed rate hike after U.S. underlying inflation was subdued last month. Odeta Kushi from First American told Reuters the 'hawkish bar has been raised' - but with more key inflation and economic data still to come, the Fed isn’t off the hook just yet.","duration":336.8,"transcript_data":{"transcript":"For the Fed, the devil is in the data. But which numbers can they trust? No rest for the Fed this summer Policymakers are trying to decide whether prices can keep cooling without a rate hike or whether they'll eventually have to tighten policy. So far, the June and July numbers haven't delivered enough to force their hands. And last week's job support gave the Hawks a little less ammunition. So the Fed is stuck in the middle What could tip the scale? Let's ask Odeta Kushi, Deputy Chief Economist at First American. So Odeta, underlying US inflation was subdued in July, with some analysts saying the immediate pressure is of the Fed to hike. So what's your read on the numbers? Is the September move now off the table Well, we've had two relatively soft inflation reports in a row, and that's helped to ease concerns that price pressures are building or broadening after some firmer readings earlier in the year. We know that inflation is still above the Federal Reserve's comfort zone. And certainly this last report wasn't in all clear, but it does take the urgency out of a September rate cut. And in combination with a soft jobs report that we received in July, I think that it raises the bar. For a rate cut in September. Well, let's look forward and economists expect consumer price growth to pick up in August, reflecting the recent rise in oil prices. So as the Iran war drags on with no end in sight, how much longer can Fed officials look through the energy shock? The real question is not just in the energy sector, it's really whether incoming data reports show a broadening of rising energy prices into other sectors. So if we start to see these inflation reports come in and we start to see all of the various key components of inflation start to pick up as well, I think that that's when we can start to increase our expectations for a Fed rate hike later in the year. So let's talk about the jobs market now and in retrospect last week's weak job support really shouldn't have come as much of a surprise. Go back previous years and July payrolls often disappoint. So it's just another summertime jobs bust or something more serious. There were certainly some seasonal adjustment factors that played into why we received such a soft report. But I do think that there are reasons to believe that we're simply in a cooler labour market. We've been seeing this since last year, the job market cooling down a bit. I still think that the job market has been relatively stable in recent months. So unless we start to see significant deterioration in the labour market, again, that's another reason for... the Fed to keep neutral and to keep on hold for right now. Well, one factor is AI as well. It's storming through markets but its imprint on the inflation and jobs data remains small and contradictory. So do you expect that to continue or are we getting closer to seeing AI dominate data as well? The AI impact, there's a possibility that AI could be inflationary in the near term. It can contribute to higher input prices, certainly can contribute to the wealth effect and drive some consumer spending. And then the research would support that over a long term, it can be more deflationary. And so in the near term, we might expect some upward pressure on inflation from AI. But the good news is hopefully over a long term, it's helpful on the inflation front on the labor market the impact of AI is still relatively unclear I think there's some early signs that there's been some AI disruption in the labor market prompting some some job cuts but that's certainly not definitive because we're also at a point in a labor market cycle where there's been softening and so it's hard to disentangle whether that's simply a cycle effect or an AI effect So at least six Fed voters have signaled that they could eventually support a rate hike. Now, I did say that the bar has been raised, but is a hike becoming inevitable as this descent grows? The hike is still on the table, but it's really, truly data dependent. We still have another set of reports before the September meeting. We'll get another jobs report, another producer price index or wholesale inflation report, and another consumer price index report. And I think those will be very important heading into that September meeting. Focus as well turning to the Fed's annual symposium in Jackson Hole later this month, a key platform for Chair Kevin Warsh. So after the pushback from markets, do you expect him to dial back on his lack of guidance? It's possible that he'll reaffirm what he's mentioned in the last two meetings, that he will not be offering forward guidance and the reasons for such a decision. But I think generally he'll give maybe some insight into his reaction function and talk a little bit about the committees that he's forming going forward. So Odeta that's finished on the housing market and home prices have soared in recent years, while high mortgage rates have locked many would-be buyers out of the markets. So will uncertainty around the Fed's next moves keep buyers on the sidelines? You know, mortgage rates have been a somewhat positive story this year. They've remained below year-ago levels for nearly the entire year. The exception is these last two weeks, we've seen mortgage rates creep above year-ago levels, and that's certainly a headwind to the housing market recovery. That said, we're still seeing a housing market where income growth is outpacing house price growth. We've seen pretty anemic house price growth below 1% on a year-over-year basis, and that's been contributing to some affordability gains as well, so I do think there's some pockets of optimism in the affordability equation. That was Odeta Kushi from First American. Don't forget you can watch more videos on Reuters.com"},"published_time":"2026-08-13T14:03:29Z","updated_time":"2026-08-13T14:03:30Z","thumbnail":{"url":"https://ajo.prod.reuters.tv/api/v2/img/6a7dcdcbe4b021862a49538f","caption":"Traders are dialling back bets on a September Fed rate hike after U.S. underlying inflation was subdued last month. Odeta Kushi from First American told Reuters the 'hawkish bar has been raised' - but with more key inflation and economic data still to come, the Fed isn’t off the hook just yet.","type":"image","resizer_url":"https://ajo.prod.reuters.tv/api/v2/img/6a7dcdcbe4b021862a49538f"},"source":{"hls":"https://ajo.prod.reuters.tv/v3/playlist/785571/master.m3u8"},"channels":[{"id":"Macro_Matters","name":"Macro Matters","regions":["US"]},{"id":"HPUS","name":"RCOM Homepage US","regions":["US"]},{"id":"6ffc0233e09c26943b265ef3abd575b2d872818b","name":"Business","regions":["US"]}],"advert_info":{"advert_params":[{"key":"adfriendly","value":true}],"advert_zone":"/4735792/reuters.com/markets/stocks"},"meta_data":[{"key":"upstream-description","value":"Traders are dialling back bets on a September Fed rate hike after U.S. underlying inflation was subdued last month. Odeta Kushi from First American told Reuters the 'hawkish bar has been raised' - but with more key inflation and economic data still to come, the Fed isn’t off the hook just yet."},{"key":"copyright","value":"(c) 2026 Thomson Reuters, unless otherwise identified. Full statement available at https://www.thomsonreuters.com/en/policies/copyright.html"},{"key":"package-no-social","value":"Yes"},{"key":"hidden","value":"false"},{"key":"dateline","value":"Reuters, Reuters, AUG 13"},{"key":"package-restrictions","value":"For Reuters platforms only.. For Reuters customers only."},{"key":"package-mood","value":"Neutral"},{"key":"link","value":"tag:reuters.com,2026:newsml_RW518613082026RP1:4"},{"key":"upstream-channel-code","value":"vty454"},{"key":"upstream-title","value":"Macro Matters: Fed's September hike 'isn't off the table'"},{"key":"external-asset-id","value":"285_RW518613082026RP1"},{"key":"lmp-feed","value":"lp"},{"key":"package-notes","value":"Nonfarm, Jackson Hole, Inflation, Warsh, Jobs, CPI, FOMC, Housing, Interest Rates, PCE, Payrolls, Fed, AI"},{"key":"publisher-name","value":"reuters.com"},{"key":"package-format","value":"Other"},{"key":"region","value":"Remote"},{"key":"byline","value":"London, UK"}],"usn":"RW518613082026RP1"},{"id":"RW370006082026RP1","type":"video","subtype":"application/x-mpegURL","external_id":"RW370006082026RP1","title":"Macro Matters: Bond markets 'looking for the Fed's path back to 2% inflation'","description":"All eyes will be on the U.S. jobs report on Friday, with some concerns a strong number could push bond yields higher, because investors are worried the U.S. economy might be running too hot. Jeff Schulze of ClearBridge Investments told Reuters wage growth is already in line with the Fed's 2% target, and he believes we've already see the impact from tariffs, so the inflation question comes back to energy prices and the Middle East.","duration":297.3,"transcript_data":{"transcript":"Traders await the jobs report, but can it calm bond markets? This is Macro Matters, and we're talking the U.S. job market. Tomorrow's crucial non-farm payrolls are forecast to show the U.S. economy added around 230,000 jobs in July. Labour markets so far this week have come in with softer numbers than expected, with ADP reporting just 44,000 private sector job gains. That helped calm the bond markets, where there have been some fears that the U.S. economy might be overheating. Jeff Schulze is head of economic and market strategy at ClearBridge Investments. Jeff, what are you looking at? For then, in the jobs report. Well, I think if we get a jobs report that comes in at or above consensus expectations, It's really going to put the focus of the Fed on next week's CPI reading and whether or not we can see a continuation of the soft reading from June. But more importantly, from my vantage point, I'm looking for a continuation of broad job gains. Last year, all job gains were located in health care, and that has been a very different scenario here in 2026. We're also going to be watching for the unemployment rate. Does it continue to move lower or does it inch a little bit higher from here, which is something that the Fed is looking at as a barometer of labor market tightness. But given the initial jobless print that we saw this morning, it's printing a below 200,000 yet again, Suggests that we are in a low fire type of environment and that the labor markets on a pretty sound foundation. Is there a risk, though, that a strong number might raise concerns the U.S. economy is starting to run too hot? It would have to be materially above consensus expectations. But I think importantly, when you look at the second quarter GDP print that we most recently got, it was a disappointing number at a headline level. But beneath the surface, it does appear that the economy is on a really good foundation. And what really stood out to me was that consumption came in at 3.2% annualized, even with the energy shock that we saw in the second quarter. Now, obviously, some of the consumption picture is being supported by. The stimulus from the one big beautiful bill, which is slowly being eroded away. But also another part of that equation is a solid labor market, which is supporting labor income. And with the markets back at all time highs, that's supporting the upper income households that have been a key support for the economy over the last couple of years. Is there more market attention, do you think, on data like the jobs report, Because Fed Chair Kevin Warsh is deliberately trying to cut down communication from the Fed? I think so. And one of the reasons why bond yields have moved higher is that there isn't a clear communication of the Fed's reaction function. So there's uncertainty of whether or not to get back to target, you need to see higher interest rates. You need to see tighter financial conditions, maybe a smaller balance sheet. And I don't think we're going to get a lot more visibility on that as we move through the next couple of FOMC meetings. Given the weakness that we did see in June's CPI release, I think that's going to flow through to July's, and you're going to continue to see sheltered disinflation. I think the peak pass-through from tariffs has already happened. And Supercore, which the Fed likes to look at as a measure of demand-driven inflation, I think that continues to be relatively weak because wage growth is not at a high level and is consistent with the Fed's 2% target. What if inflation doesn't soften though? Lisa Cook was the latest policymaker this week to say she was prepared to raise rates. Is the FOMC going to need to do that in September just to convince markets of their credibility unless inflation is substantially lower? Well, you have seen long bond yields move down a little bit here over the last week. So I don't think that the Fed necessarily needs to hike. But even if they do hike by 25 basis points, I think that the economy is on a really solid foundation. And more importantly, from a market perspective, earnings have been fantastic yet again here in Q2. Guidance has been strong, and I think the markets will be able to shrug off any weakness that materializes because of a rate hike. Has the bond market, though, been showing it's not completely convinced by Kevin Warsh, perhaps not totally convinced he can protect Fed independence? No, I think the bond markets are really just looking for that reaction function and some guidance to what's that path back to the 2% inflation target. More importantly, though, when you look at, One of the reasons why the bond market has been moving higher, it comes back to energy markets. And when you go back to 1990, when you've had a peak of crude oil, energy markets, And more importantly, the 10-year treasury has moved down very consistently on a forward 3, 6, and 12-month basis. So if Middle Eastern tensions start to dissipate from here, oil starts to move lower in a more durable fashion. I think that the 10-year Treasury yields will continue to move lower even if Kevin Warsh and the Fed don't define that reaction function. That was Jeff Schulze of ClearBridge Investments. Don't forget you can watch more videos on Reuters.com."},"published_time":"2026-08-06T14:55:03Z","updated_time":"2026-08-06T14:55:04Z","thumbnail":{"url":"https://ajo.prod.reuters.tv/api/v2/img/6a749f70e4b0e82a5834c9c4","caption":"All eyes will be on the U.S. jobs report on Friday, with some concerns a strong number could push bond yields higher, because investors are worried the U.S. economy might be running too hot. Jeff Schulze of ClearBridge Investments told Reuters wage growth is already in line with the Fed's 2% target, and he believes we've already see the impact from tariffs, so the inflation question comes back to energy prices and the Middle East.","type":"image","resizer_url":"https://ajo.prod.reuters.tv/api/v2/img/6a749f70e4b0e82a5834c9c4"},"source":{"hls":"https://ajo.prod.reuters.tv/v3/playlist/785039/master.m3u8"},"channels":[{"id":"Macro_Matters","name":"Macro Matters","regions":["US"]},{"id":"HPUS","name":"RCOM Homepage US","regions":["US"]},{"id":"6ffc0233e09c26943b265ef3abd575b2d872818b","name":"Business","regions":["US"]}],"advert_info":{"advert_params":[{"key":"adfriendly","value":true}],"advert_zone":"/4735792/reuters.com/markets/stocks"},"meta_data":[{"key":"upstream-description","value":"All eyes will be on the U.S. jobs report on Friday, with some concerns a strong number could push bond yields higher, because investors are worried the U.S. economy might be running too hot. Jeff Schulze of ClearBridge Investments told Reuters wage growth is already in line with the Fed's 2% target, and he believes we've already see the impact from tariffs, so the inflation question comes back to energy prices and the Middle East."},{"key":"copyright","value":"(c) 2026 Thomson Reuters, unless otherwise identified. Full statement available at https://www.thomsonreuters.com/en/policies/copyright.html"},{"key":"package-no-social","value":"Yes"},{"key":"hidden","value":"false"},{"key":"dateline","value":"Reuters, Reuters, AUG 06"},{"key":"package-restrictions","value":"For Reuters platforms only. . For Reuters customers only."},{"key":"package-mood","value":"Neutral"},{"key":"link","value":"tag:reuters.com,2026:newsml_RW370006082026RP1:4"},{"key":"upstream-channel-code","value":"vty454"},{"key":"upstream-title","value":"Macro Matters: Bond markets 'looking for the Fed's path back to 2% inflation'"},{"key":"external-asset-id","value":"285_RW370006082026RP1"},{"key":"lmp-feed","value":"lp"},{"key":"package-notes","value":"Federal Reserve, jobs"},{"key":"publisher-name","value":"reuters.com"},{"key":"package-format","value":"Other"},{"key":"region","value":"Remote"},{"key":"byline","value":"London, UK"}],"usn":"RW370006082026RP1"},{"id":"RW210630072026RP1","type":"video","subtype":"application/x-mpegURL","external_id":"RW210630072026RP1","title":"Macro Matters: 'Every chance' the Bank of England doesn't need to hike","description":"The Bank of England held rates on Thursday, but three committee members voted for a hike, sounding a little more hawkish than the market was expecting. HSBC's chief European economist Simon Wells told Reuters there's every chance they don't hike this year at all, but it all depends on the Middle East. ","duration":305.66,"transcript_data":{"transcript":"It's a hold from the Bank of England but Governor Bailey says he can't draw too much comfort from the inflation data. And we're talking the Bank of It's kept rates on hold this Thursday, with most policymakers arguing they're already high enough to keep price pressures in check. But three of them did vote for a hike Governor Andrew Bailey said there was little yet to suggest that higher energy prices are turning into broader inflation, but admitted the Outlook is very uncertain. Simon Wells is chief European economist at HSBC Simon, a six-to-three split then, slightly more hawkish than perhaps you were expecting? 'I think initially when you look at the vote, yes, it was.' 'Most people were going for the 7-2 in the event Catherine Mann decided she was going to join them.' 'But you're one closer to a hike, you're still short of a majority.' 'And if you listen to what Governor Bailey was saying in the press conference, even what Deputy Governor Lombardelli was saying, perhaps those ones that' 'Are not yet ready to vote for a hike.' 'It may take quite a bit for them to change' 'And I think that's why you've seen a little bit of the reaction you've seen for the September pricing.' 'We may be in this position for a while now.' What do you think it would take then? What warning signs should we be looking out for that energy prices are slipping into wider inflation enough that they'll have to move? One thing they all seem to be able to agree on is the importance of the second round effects on wages and then inflation, and also to a degree, the indirect Inflationary re-impact of an energy shock. So they all agree that it's paramount. Three of them Judge that most likely, given global developments, these will eventually materialize. You want to get ahead of the curve And so that's influencing a lot of their thinking. The other six, they're looking at the domestic outlook, the weakening labor market, not much by way of inflationary pressure coming through there. So it's a matter of judgment. Obviously, I think they can all also agree that if you wait to see these second round effects, you're going to have waited too long. Took a lot of time in today's report to stress the indicators they'll be looking at, but they all revolve around these second round effects. So if you look into your crystal ball then, Simon, do you think they'll avoid tightening this year? I mean, so much depends on the Middle East situation, of course. And if my crystal ball could tell me Middle East situation, I could give you a pretty good answer to that question. As it is, I'm going to be a fence city economist. It's just going to depend so much on that. But if we think that the oil price is going to remain roughly where it is today, $90 a barrel isn't going to Tip the global economy over. Given some of that domestic weakness that was very much stressed today, despite the vote, yeah, I think there's every chance we could get through the Year with no rate rises from the BOE. Well, gilts have rallied a bit today. That's the opposite of what we've seen in the US, where the 30-year reached a 19-year high overnight as the bond market seems to question new chair Kevin Walsh's credibility. How would you compare the two situations? All Fed chairs get tested eventually. Kevin Walsh's test looks like it's going to come pretty early. I mean, in a way, there's a divergent situation. The Bank of England at the moment seems to be communicating more. It's given us its nine statements. And all of this is in response, of course, to the Bernanke review. Well, the Bernanke era in the Fed is over. And in a way, Kevin Walsh is more going back to like the Mervyn King era of the Bank of England. A bit of creative ambiguity. We're going to communicate our reaction function. And it's up to you to decide what the data means for that. Of course, the market doesn't like change much. It is nervous. It's going to sort of move first and ask questions later. And I think that is what we're seeing in the US. And as you say, that is a different situation in terms of communication challenge from what we're seeing here in the UK. Is the bond market right, though, to worry that Walsh's Fed could be behind the curve on inflation in what is, of course, a much stronger economy than We have in the UK? Yeah, I mean, I think that's an important point, is that in Europe, it's pretty much all about energy at the moment and the second round and indirect Effects that that causes. That's really all you need to be looking at for monetary policy. In the US, you've got various supply side factors on tech. You've got a labour market that may be re-strengthening again. So, it is different. Is the bond market right to be worried I'll leave that to the bond market. But certainly the inflation outlook is coming from a very different starting point. Could the sell-off then force the Fed into tightening faster? I mean, we always talk about bond market vigilantes, don't we? And I often think about the situation with the US bond market in the mid-90s as an example of when the Fed ultimately had to keep tightening in order to Convince the bond market of its credibility. I mean, I think the US situation is so finely balanced at the moment. But yeah, the market is Delicately poised, shall we say I was Simon Wells of HSBC. Don't forget you can watch more videos on Reuters.com."},"published_time":"2026-07-30T14:55:23Z","updated_time":"2026-07-30T14:55:25Z","thumbnail":{"url":"https://ajo.prod.reuters.tv/api/v2/img/6a6b6512e4b016e68daf5bdd","caption":"The Bank of England held rates on Thursday, but three committee members voted for a hike, sounding a little more hawkish than the market was expecting. HSBC's chief European economist Simon Wells told Reuters there's every chance they don't hike this year at all, but it all depends on the Middle East. ","type":"image","resizer_url":"https://ajo.prod.reuters.tv/api/v2/img/6a6b6512e4b016e68daf5bdd"},"source":{"hls":"https://ajo.prod.reuters.tv/v3/playlist/784483/master.m3u8"},"channels":[{"id":"Macro_Matters","name":"Macro Matters","regions":["US"]},{"id":"Markets","name":"Markets","regions":["US"]},{"id":"6ffc0233e09c26943b265ef3abd575b2d872818b","name":"Business","regions":["US"]}],"advert_info":{"advert_params":[{"key":"adfriendly","value":true}],"advert_zone":"/4735792/reuters.com/markets/stocks"},"meta_data":[{"key":"upstream-description","value":"The Bank of England held rates on Thursday, but three committee members voted for a hike, sounding a little more hawkish than the market was expecting. HSBC's chief European economist Simon Wells told Reuters there's every chance they don't hike this year at all, but it all depends on the Middle East. "},{"key":"copyright","value":"(c) 2026 Thomson Reuters, unless otherwise identified. Full statement available at https://www.thomsonreuters.com/en/policies/copyright.html"},{"key":"package-no-social","value":"Yes"},{"key":"hidden","value":"false"},{"key":"dateline","value":"Reuters, Reuters, JUL 30"},{"key":"package-restrictions","value":"For Reuters platforms only. . For Reuters customers only."},{"key":"package-mood","value":"Neutral"},{"key":"link","value":"tag:reuters.com,2026:newsml_RW210630072026RP1:4"},{"key":"upstream-channel-code","value":"vty454"},{"key":"upstream-title","value":"Macro Matters: 'Every chance' the Bank of England doesn't need to hike"},{"key":"external-asset-id","value":"285_RW210630072026RP1"},{"key":"lmp-feed","value":"lp"},{"key":"package-notes","value":"Bank of England, inflation"},{"key":"publisher-name","value":"reuters.com"},{"key":"package-format","value":"Other"},{"key":"region","value":"Remote"},{"key":"byline","value":"London, UK"}],"usn":"RW210630072026RP1"},{"id":"RW054124072026RP1","type":"video","subtype":"application/x-mpegURL","external_id":"RW054124072026RP1","title":"Macro Matters: Will Trump's new tariffs reignite inflation?","description":"A few short weeks ago, the U.S. economy seemed to be settling into a summer break. But President Trump’s renewed trade brinkmanship has sent inflation fears back into focus, with a fresh slate of tariffs on dozens of trading partners. James Smith from ING told Reuters that economists can breathe a little easier, as the impact of tariffs on inflation continues to lose steam.","duration":300.13,"transcript_data":{"transcript":"President Trump is rebuilding his tariff wall. The bricks look familiar, but will the fallout? President Trump's latest round of tariffs have just been unveiled, with most US trading partners now facing duties of between 10 and 12.5% on their exports. After the Supreme Court blew a hole in his original tariff strategy back in February, Trump has found new tools to keep his signature trade policy alive. Feeling a sense of déjà vu? Well, let's ask James Smith, developed markets economist at ING. So James, Asian nations have condemned the tariffs but stopped short of retaliation. Have US trading partners effectively accepted that this is the new reality of doing business with America? Was anyone shocked? I don't think anyone's shocked, really. I mean, this has been muted for a few weeks as well, let's not forget. And I think what this really does is just solidify the tariffs that came in, in response to the Supreme Court ruling earlier this year. This is really cementing the sort of Circa 10% tariffs that came in back then under a legal mechanism, which is more watertight, less likely to be challenged in the courts. So I think it's really kind of continuity. Yes, I think trading partners obviously aren't happy about it. But as you say, I think this is the new normal for US trade relations. Does that mean the inflationary impact is likely to be fairly limited? Can economists breathe a little easier? I think so. And actually, one of the things we're seeing is the tariff impact on US inflation is dialing down. One of the things we look at is tariff revenue as a share of the value of everything the US imports in terms of goods imports. And that share, that sort of tariff percentage, if you like, tariff revenue is coming gradually lower, particularly now that we're getting big tariff refunds coming through in response to that Supreme Court ruling that we had earlier this year. I think if you net it out, in fact, in May, I think tariff refunds pretty much offset what the US was getting in in fresh tariff revenue. So I think the upshot is that if that sort of passing through to companies, then that should be helping their margins. And it should also take the pressure off them to raise prices of goods further. So I think at the margin, this is good news for inflation, but the inflationary impact of tariffs was already dialing lower. Well these tariffs may not be the last, but if rates climb back towards those 2025 levels, the economic risks become much harder to ignore. Do you think that'll give a bit of caution from President Trump's next approach with tariffs? Well, I think the issue of affordability is clearly front and centre in US politics right now, also with gasoline prices heading back above $4 a gallon. So I think tariffs and the extra pressure that puts on goods is obviously a sort of part of that story. But equally, this is a big part of President Trump's economic agenda: tariffs. This is something he's obviously talked about for a very long time. And also tariff revenue, cementing that, that is also important in terms of the fiscal stimulus we got last year and kind of offsetting that in terms of the fiscal numbers. So I think tariffs aren't going away, but there is a question mark, I think, as to whether or not tariffs go higher from here. Well, let's check in on the US economy. Initial jobs' claims just fell to their lowest levels since 1969. After June's weaker-than-expected payroll support can we now put concerns about cracks in the labour market to one side? The jobs numbers are definitely looking better. We've seen a bit of an upturn in private payrolls this year. If you look at 2025, all of the jobs growth came from a very narrow subset of US industries, particularly private health care. That's still true to some extent, but things have improved a little bit across the jobs market, albeit there's not a sort of big sign of heat entering things. The quits rate, for example, percentage of people leaving their job voluntarily is still pretty low. Wage growth should it isn't under any obvious upside pressure right now. But I think the fact that the jobs market has stabilised is enabling the Fed to focus much more squarely on inflation. And obviously, more recently, core inflation has been heading in the wrong direction, which is worrying the Federal Reserve hawks right now. Well, Fed policymakers are weighing a renewed oil price shock, as you said. How do you see that balance playing out next week, a more hawkish tone? Well, I think the renewed rise in oil prices is certainly unhelpful. I mean, we've seen in the recent Fed minutes from the June meeting, for example, the test that officials have really set is that they're kind of talking about rate hikes unless inflation does come in better over the next couple of months. I mean, there are reasons to think it might do. I mean, we mentioned tariffs being more benign. Let's see what happens with oil prices. That's probably the main thing to watch between now and and September. But there are other reasons to think inflation is getting better rental growth is slowing. I mentioned wage growth. So I think it's not a done deal necessarily that the Fed hikes rates in September. But that's obviously going to be any hints on that is going to be the main focus next week. That was James Smith from ING. Don't forget you can watch more videos on Reuters.com"},"published_time":"2026-07-24T10:48:51Z","updated_time":"2026-07-24T10:48:52Z","thumbnail":{"url":"https://ajo.prod.reuters.tv/api/v2/img/6a63421ae4b00783ae74416e","caption":"A few short weeks ago, the U.S. economy seemed to be settling into a summer break. But President Trump’s renewed trade brinkmanship has sent inflation fears back into focus, with a fresh slate of tariffs on dozens of trading partners. James Smith from ING told Reuters that economists can breathe a little easier, as the impact of tariffs on inflation continues to lose steam.","type":"image","resizer_url":"https://ajo.prod.reuters.tv/api/v2/img/6a63421ae4b00783ae74416e"},"source":{"hls":"https://ajo.prod.reuters.tv/v3/playlist/784009/master.m3u8"},"channels":[{"id":"Macro_Matters","name":"Macro Matters","regions":["US"]},{"id":"6ffc0233e09c26943b265ef3abd575b2d872818b","name":"Business","regions":["US"]}],"advert_info":{"advert_params":[{"key":"adfriendly","value":true}],"advert_zone":"/4735792/reuters.com/markets/stocks"},"meta_data":[{"key":"upstream-description","value":"A few short weeks ago, the U.S. economy seemed to be settling into a summer break. But President Trump’s renewed trade brinkmanship has sent inflation fears back into focus, with a fresh slate of tariffs on dozens of trading partners. James Smith from ING told Reuters that economists can breathe a little easier, as the impact of tariffs on inflation continues to lose steam."},{"key":"copyright","value":"(c) 2026 Thomson Reuters, unless otherwise identified. Full statement available at https://www.thomsonreuters.com/en/policies/copyright.html"},{"key":"package-no-social","value":"Yes"},{"key":"hidden","value":"false"},{"key":"dateline","value":"Reuters, Reuters, JUL 24"},{"key":"package-restrictions","value":"For Reuters platforms only.. For Reuters customers only."},{"key":"package-mood","value":"Neutral"},{"key":"link","value":"tag:reuters.com,2026:newsml_RW054124072026RP1:4"},{"key":"upstream-channel-code","value":"vty454"},{"key":"upstream-title","value":"Macro Matters: Will Trump's new tariffs reignite inflation?"},{"key":"external-asset-id","value":"285_RW054124072026RP1"},{"key":"lmp-feed","value":"lp"},{"key":"package-notes","value":"Tariffs, Duties, Trade, Jobless, Dove, Inflation, Trump, Jobs, FOMC, Levies, NFP, Hawk, Interest Rates, Tax, Williams, Payrolls, Supreme Court, Growth, Kevin Warsh, Fed"},{"key":"publisher-name","value":"reuters.com"},{"key":"package-format","value":"Other"},{"key":"region","value":"Remote"},{"key":"byline","value":"London, UK"}],"usn":"RW054124072026RP1"},{"id":"RW846616072026RP1","type":"video","subtype":"application/x-mpegURL","external_id":"RW846616072026RP1","title":"Macro Matters: Energy prices 'not too concerning' for US","description":"Crude oil prices have risen again this week after the ceasefire between the U.S. and Iran seemed to have effectively collapsed. Economist James Knightley of ING told Reuters that likely won't have much impact at the gas pump in the U.S., though, and that means he thinks the Fed is unlikely to need to hike rates this year. ","duration":381.56,"transcript_data":{"transcript":"Soft inflation data supports bets the Fed will hold off on a hike, but could the war in Iran still throw a spanner in the works? This is Macro Matters and we're talking inflation. U.S. producer prices unexpectedly fell in June. That's the latest piece of evidence that inflation is coming down after consumer prices also came in soft and it's left traders to effectively rule out a Fed rate hike in July. The war in Iran could still upend those expectations though. The ceasefire appears to be over as the US carried out another series of strikes on Wednesday morning and Iran is now signalling it may use its Houthi allies in Yemen to shut the Bab-el-Mandeb gateway to the Red Sea, putting new pressure on oil supplies. James Knightley is chief international economist Firstly, James, what is pushing US inflation lower than we expected? Yeah, well, I think certainly for June, gasoline prices did come on the softer side, and that really helped pull the headline rates down. But also more broadly, there was softness in a number of components. I think that's what's the really encouraging story. It wasn't just one or two rogue elements really sucking down the core rate of inflation. It was actually pretty broad-based softness coming through. And it wasn't just the Consumer Price Inflation Report or the Producer Price Inflation Report. We also had the Federal Reserve's Beige Book. Beige Book, which is this anecdotal survey on the state of the US economy. And that commented that in all districts in the United States, they too had seen a broad base cooling of inflationary pressures. So it's not a one-off story. There's a broad range of things actually coming through, it seems. Are we saying that the US economy has developed some immunity to higher energy prices or could the Iran war still change that if the Strait of Hormuz is again effectively closed? Well, I think one of the interesting aspects of the producer price inflation report is that they have this component called trade services, which is effectively a measure of profit margins. And that was the one area of strength And it was particularly evident in fuel prices. So I think that's what gives me encouragement is that West Texas crude. $80 a barrel, which is what we're at today, Brent at about $85 a barrel. That's been historically consistent with US retail gasoline prices about $3.75 a gallon. Well, we're actually a little bit above that. So for me, even though oil prices have risen about $10 a barrel, because of that slowness in the retail gasoline prices falling, because these gasoline stations have been sort of widening their profit margins I'm not too concerned about the rise in energy prices feeding through into rising gasoline prices, as arguably gasoline prices should be lower today than what they currently are at. So I think that that provides me a little bit of comfort that even if this current situation isn't as we would have liked, we're not going to be seeing additional inflationary pressures coming through over July and August. While Fed Chair Kevin Warsh has been testifying to Congress this week, he has been generally very reluctant to say much about his views on policy, but did we learn anything new? But he did at least acknowledge the softer inflation prints that we'd seen for June. But unsurprisingly, he says, \"You know, we've been too high for too long on inflation.\" We've missed our inflation target for five consecutive years. One month does not break that trend. And I think that's the key point that he would make, and other Fed officials would make, that we need to see more than just one month's worth of data. But I think there's actually four key reasons that we can be hopeful for this inflation be a slowing trend to really One is, you know, we're in an election year. Donald Trump does want to get the Middle East crisis resolved. He does want lower gasoline prices for U.S. consumers going into that election. Secondly, housing. Housing house prices are really cooling. Rents are also cooling. Housing is the biggest component of inflation. That should be really helpful. Wage is the biggest cost input for corporate America. Wage growth is cooling. And fourthly, tariffs. Tariffs were the big story But in actual fact, we're now in a less onerous, with more exemptions. Tariff regime. The IE EPA tariffs are also being reimbursed, $166 billion going back to corporates. So that should really help to mitigate cost pressures. And again, we argue that we think that core inflation and headline inflation can continue slowing. We will be back down below 2.5 percent by the summer of next year. So will that mean the Fed doesn't have to hike rates? The market has ruled that out now for July, but they're still expecting it in September, are you? That's right, yeah. We had seen, you know, this time last week, a 50-50 call on whether... July would see a rate rise. We now barely have two basis points of a 25 basis point hike price. So that just underscores how much this has really helped to dampen those expectations. But, as you say, we have got the market still pricing a hike for this year. We're arguing, though, that, actually, it's not necessary, really, because we do think that that inflationary backdrop is looking much improved. And, as I said, we've got four key arguments why we would see inflation continue to moderate. At the same time, yes, we have good jobs numbers March, April, May, but the June report wasn't as good as hoped and business service is still pointing to weak hiring. So while we're not saying the Fed needs to cut, we're not really seeing the need for a rate hike either. So we're in the camp that thinks the Fed can actually have a prolonged pause and we're not expecting any rate changes for at least 12 months. What about AI, James? We heard in the minutes of the last Fed meeting that some officials were worried about the huge spending on AI driving inflation. Do you think it will be inflationary Yeah, there's a lot of talk about, you know, the price of iPhones and the price of laptop computers going up because everyone's desperate for microchips. But got to remember that the chips actually is, you know, one component that goes into these these items. But also remember that the U.S. uses what they call hedonic pricing, so they quality adjust. Basically, your $600 laptop that you're buying today can do a lot more than your $600 laptop could do five years ago. So that quality, more bang for your buck if you like, is actually reflected in inflation. So yes, while nominally prices may rise, in terms of the way we calculate inflation, it might not. So as I say, I still think that those four arguments about oil, wages, tariffs, and housing can still offset them. That was James Knightley of ING. Don't forget you can watch more videos on Reuters.com."},"published_time":"2026-07-16T14:50:19Z","updated_time":"2026-07-16T14:50:20Z","thumbnail":{"url":"https://ajo.prod.reuters.tv/api/v2/img/6a58ee4fe4b00783ae74238f","caption":"Crude oil prices have risen again this week after the ceasefire between the U.S. and Iran seemed to have effectively collapsed. Economist James Knightley of ING told Reuters that likely won't have much impact at the gas pump in the U.S., though, and that means he thinks the Fed is unlikely to need to hike rates this year. ","type":"image","resizer_url":"https://ajo.prod.reuters.tv/api/v2/img/6a58ee4fe4b00783ae74238f"},"source":{"hls":"https://ajo.prod.reuters.tv/v3/playlist/783221/master.m3u8"},"channels":[{"id":"Macro_Matters","name":"Macro Matters","regions":["US"]},{"id":"Global_Energy","name":"Energy","regions":["US"]},{"id":"HPUS","name":"RCOM Homepage US","regions":["US"]},{"id":"6ffc0233e09c26943b265ef3abd575b2d872818b","name":"Business","regions":["US"]}],"advert_info":{"advert_params":[{"key":"adfriendly","value":true}],"advert_zone":"/4735792/reuters.com/markets/stocks"},"meta_data":[{"key":"upstream-description","value":"Crude oil prices have risen again this week after the ceasefire between the U.S. and Iran seemed to have effectively collapsed. Economist James Knightley of ING told Reuters that likely won't have much impact at the gas pump in the U.S., though, and that means he thinks the Fed is unlikely to need to hike rates this year. "},{"key":"copyright","value":"(c) 2026 Thomson Reuters, unless otherwise identified. Full statement available at https://www.thomsonreuters.com/en/policies/copyright.html"},{"key":"package-no-social","value":"Yes"},{"key":"hidden","value":"false"},{"key":"dateline","value":"Reuters, Reuters, JUL 16"},{"key":"package-restrictions","value":"For Reuters platforms only. . For Reuters customers only."},{"key":"package-mood","value":"Neutral"},{"key":"link","value":"tag:reuters.com,2026:newsml_RW846616072026RP1:4"},{"key":"upstream-channel-code","value":"vty454"},{"key":"upstream-title","value":"Macro Matters: Energy prices 'not too concerning' for US"},{"key":"external-asset-id","value":"285_RW846616072026RP1"},{"key":"lmp-feed","value":"lp"},{"key":"package-notes","value":"inflation, oil, Federal Reserve"},{"key":"publisher-name","value":"reuters.com"},{"key":"package-format","value":"Other"},{"key":"region","value":"Remote"},{"key":"byline","value":"London, UK"}],"usn":"RW846616072026RP1"},{"id":"RW664009072026RP1","type":"video","subtype":"application/x-mpegURL","external_id":"RW664009072026RP1","title":"Macro Matters: 'The AI boom is putting pressure' on the US economy","description":"A rate rise from the Federal Reserve is still very much on the table this year, as the minutes of the Fed's last meeting showed policymakers worried about the dynamics of inflation. Economist Mark Fleming of First American told Reuters that huge corporate spending on AI risks driving wider prices up. ","duration":245.83,"transcript_data":{"transcript":"'Inflation worries were growing at the Fed even before energy prices took another jump. This is Macro Matters and we're talking Fed policy.' 'The minutes of June's meeting showed that a few policymakers already think there's a case to raise borrowing costs. Well, most participants think inflation could go one of two ways. Either it falls back towards the 2% target on its own or it stays high enough to force a rise in rates. When that meeting was held, oil prices were coming down, of course, on the back of a ceasefire in Iran. But fresh airstrikes have since sent them back up. Well, Mark Fleming is Chief Economist at First American. Mark, it's clear from these minutes that the dynamics of inflation are unsettling some policymakers who think it could last well beyond the war. Why?' 'There's so many things that are going on in the economy today. It's not just about energy or oil prices driving inflation. There's issues with the trailing end of tariffs, AI demand and capex spending, strong growth stimulus from the fiscal side of the economy. So, it's no surprise actually that there's a lot of variation in what they think they should do because there are a lot of moving parts at the moment.' 'What longer term inflationary factors are worrying policymakers?' Generally, this overspending and the AI boom, that's basically putting a lot of pressure into other parts of the economy and sort of driving prices up for a lot of the inputs into the construction of data centers or the building out of the interiors of data centers with all the chips and things like that. And we already see some of those constraints coming to bear and pushing prices up. In addition, the labor market's still staying strong and wage growth is pretty good, in fact, above long-term trend at the moment.' 'We have seen new hostilities with Iran of course in the last couple of days. How important is the situation in the Middle East to Fed policy?' 'It certainly doesn't help. Technically speaking, the Fed will look through transitory non-core shocks such as this. But, I think, the bigger risk is that when there is an oil shock or a big spike in gas prices, if that persists long enough, it plays through into other parts of the economy and becomes more permanent and, therefore, more of a concern for the Fed.' 'Has the U.S. economy proved more resilient to energy-driven inflation than we thought it would be a few months ago, or is it too soon to say?' 'Absolutely more resilient. I think the U.S. economy learnt its lessons from the 1970s oil shocks and has become a lot less dependent in particular on energy or oil writ large, but also on other sources of it. So, it's certainly faring better than many other parts of the world.' 'Do you think though that markets should be bracing for a rate rise fairly soon?' 'I think so. Most of the participants or half of the participants suggested that the rate should be higher by the end of this year. All the evidence suggests that that's where inflation is possibly going. The market probabilities suggest that rates will be higher. So, yes, I think at least one rate increase before the end of the year.' 'And what does that mean for the housing market? Is that already priced into mortgages or should potential borrowers move now because the situation is likely to get worse?' 'I think it's basically being priced in as we speak, as of yesterday and today and tomorrow. Mortgage rates have already risen. The 10-year Treasury is already on the rise, even today. So, that's happening as we speak. And so, next week, people will already be experiencing higher mortgage rates because of it. But they're not materially higher than they were, say, last week. We're still in that 6.5% to 6.75% range. And, I think, people are just making decisions in the housing market, regardless of rates at this point.' 'Finally, Mark, the new Fed chair promised less forward guidance and generally less communication than we've been used to. Could that unsettle markets?' 'Well, so far, those minutes were about as long as they typically have been. Obviously, Kevin has only been in the job for a short period of time. They may get shorter. This forward guidance concept is relatively The markets have had less guidance in much of history of the Fed. And I think we will still all prognosticate no matter how much guidance we do.' 'That was Mark Fleming of First American. Don't forget you can watch more videos on Reuters.com'"},"published_time":"2026-07-09T13:48:47Z","updated_time":"2026-07-09T13:48:50Z","thumbnail":{"url":"https://ajo.prod.reuters.tv/api/v2/img/6a4fa612e4b0039400d6654f","caption":"A rate rise from the Federal Reserve is still very much on the table this year, as the minutes of the Fed's last meeting showed policymakers worried about the dynamics of inflation. Economist Mark Fleming of First American told Reuters that huge corporate spending on AI risks driving wider prices up. ","type":"image","resizer_url":"https://ajo.prod.reuters.tv/api/v2/img/6a4fa612e4b0039400d6654f"},"source":{"hls":"https://ajo.prod.reuters.tv/v3/playlist/782414/master.m3u8"},"channels":[{"id":"Macro_Matters","name":"Macro Matters","regions":["US"]},{"id":"13978","name":"US News","regions":["US"]},{"id":"6ffc0233e09c26943b265ef3abd575b2d872818b","name":"Business","regions":["US"]},{"id":"d45538fb92ef02a065c15e16d3dd6a297c2ae7d7","name":"Technology","regions":["US"]}],"advert_info":{"advert_params":[{"key":"adfriendly","value":true}],"advert_zone":"/4735792/reuters.com/markets/stocks"},"meta_data":[{"key":"upstream-description","value":"A rate rise from the Federal Reserve is still very much on the table this year, as the minutes of the Fed's last meeting showed policymakers worried about the dynamics of inflation. Economist Mark Fleming of First American told Reuters that huge corporate spending on AI risks driving wider prices up. "},{"key":"copyright","value":"(c) 2026 Thomson Reuters, unless otherwise identified. Full statement available at https://www.thomsonreuters.com/en/policies/copyright.html"},{"key":"package-no-social","value":"Yes"},{"key":"hidden","value":"false"},{"key":"dateline","value":"Reuters, Reuters, JUL 09"},{"key":"package-restrictions","value":"For Reuters platforms only. . For Reuters customers only."},{"key":"package-mood","value":"Neutral"},{"key":"link","value":"tag:reuters.com,2026:newsml_RW664009072026RP1:4"},{"key":"upstream-channel-code","value":"vty454"},{"key":"upstream-title","value":"Macro Matters: 'The AI boom is putting pressure' on the US economy"},{"key":"external-asset-id","value":"285_RW664009072026RP1"},{"key":"lmp-feed","value":"lp"},{"key":"package-notes","value":"inflation, Federal Reserve, AI"},{"key":"publisher-name","value":"reuters.com"},{"key":"package-format","value":"Other"},{"key":"region","value":"Remote"},{"key":"byline","value":"London, UK"}],"usn":"RW664009072026RP1"},{"id":"RW450802072026RP1","type":"video","subtype":"application/x-mpegURL","external_id":"RW450802072026RP1","title":"Macro Matters: AI job losses 'will be balanced out by demographics'","description":"AI was part of every conversation at the ECB Forum in Portugal, as central bankers worried about the risks for financial stability and employment. Economist Holger Schmieding of Berenberg told Reuters AI might lead to job losses, but demographic change will also mean fewer workers, and he believes the numbers will balance out. ","duration":288.13,"transcript_data":{"transcript":"Fears and worries about AI dominated the ECB's annual forum in Sintra, but what can central bankers do about it? This is Macro Matters, and we're talking about AI. At this week's meeting of central bankers in Portugal, the risks of AI made their way into every discussion on financial markets, bank lending and security. New Fed Chair Kevin Warsh said central banks needed to make sure the technology doesn't drive up inflation, but economists say it could also push inflation too low. Holger Schmieding is chief economist at Berenberg. Holger, firstly, central bankers went into this forum with a rather more positive outlook on inflation than just a few weeks ago, didn't they, as energy prices have started to come down quickly. So can we say that Europe has escaped the worst inflationary consequences that were expected from the Iran War? Yes, Europe is almost certainly beyond the worst in terms of inflation. Of course, there's always a risk that the Strait of Hormuz may be closed again for quite a while, but that is just a tail risk. Both the U.S. and Iran do have an interest in keeping the Strait more or less open. And that means that the ECB rate hike in June was not necessary. We've seen that already in the June European data. Inflation is coming down with oil prices so far. The inflation data showed no sign of these credit second round effects of the energy price push. So, yes, the ECB should stay put from now on. What do you make of this fear that AI could be inflationary? Initially, AI is probably modestly inflationary in the US more so than in Europe. Why? Because at the moment, we are seeing a lot of investment into AI, which, of course, ties up resources and drives up electricity prices here and there. We are not yet seeing major benefits from AI in terms of major gains in productivity. And where AI is probably starting to make a difference for some white-collar workers, say, in accountancy, These are not the services that consumers tend to buy in their consumer basket. Hence, for the time being, AI is a bit more inflationary and the disinflationary hopes that AI may do that are probably something for the more distant future if they are right at all. Do you think it poses a risk to financial stability? Well, AI, like other technologies which are fast, can of course pose a risk. If AI means that people can react faster to the bad news, it may also encourage more herd behavior and hence exacerbate short-term shocks, like other sort of automated trading strategies. But that is something that central banks can try to curtail, A, through regulation, and B, by being watchful as to the consequences. Central banks have a toolbox to deal with major short-term disruptions, which could, with other regulators in extreme cases, simply mean we've stopped trading for an hour or a little while to calm things down. What if it leads, as some fear, to dramatically lower employment? Well, that has been a fear with technological breakthroughs throughout human history. And, of course, there are always short-term adjustment pains, and AI as a fast technology may lead to significant near-term adjustment pain. Having said that, human history tells us that technological breakthroughs are ultimately good, that they in the end have benefits, and that is what will likely happen with AI. So far, we are seeing few AI-related job losses. The US labor market, the European labor markets are continuing to actually do fairly well. Do you think these fears are being overstated then? Yes, I think these fears are overstated. It's always good to look at the risks to ponder them, but these are fears, these are risks, these are not predictions of the most likely outcome. The most likely outcome is simply that people will be slower in adopting AI than the nerds think. And hence, that the somewhat modest slow and adoption of AI will mean that the drop losses can in many cases be offset by the simple fact that demography there will be fewer workers around. So, I expect these two things, AI-related job losses and adverse demographics to basically balance each other with the likelihood that net there will be stronger employment in the future in the sense of stronger employment rates, lower unemployment rates, as AI will probably improve economic performance modestly over time. AI will also create jobs and the job losses will not be worse than the, well, the demographic adverse development. That was Holger Schmieding of Berenberg. Don't forget you can watch more videos on Reuters.com."},"published_time":"2026-07-02T13:56:19Z","updated_time":"2026-07-02T13:56:20Z","thumbnail":{"url":"https://ajo.prod.reuters.tv/api/v2/img/6a466d36e4b0299c78f12b4d","caption":"AI was part of every conversation at the ECB Forum in Portugal, as central bankers worried about the risks for financial stability and employment. Economist Holger Schmieding of Berenberg told Reuters AI might lead to job losses, but demographic change will also mean fewer workers, and he believes the numbers will balance out. ","type":"image","resizer_url":"https://ajo.prod.reuters.tv/api/v2/img/6a466d36e4b0299c78f12b4d"},"source":{"hls":"https://ajo.prod.reuters.tv/v3/playlist/781583/master.m3u8"},"channels":[{"id":"Macro_Matters","name":"Macro Matters","regions":["US"]},{"id":"6ffc0233e09c26943b265ef3abd575b2d872818b","name":"Business","regions":["US"]},{"id":"d45538fb92ef02a065c15e16d3dd6a297c2ae7d7","name":"Technology","regions":["US"]}],"advert_info":{"advert_params":[{"key":"adfriendly","value":true}],"advert_zone":"/4735792/reuters.com/markets/stocks"},"meta_data":[{"key":"upstream-description","value":"AI was part of every conversation at the ECB Forum in Portugal, as central bankers worried about the risks for financial stability and employment. Economist Holger Schmieding of Berenberg told Reuters AI might lead to job losses, but demographic change will also mean fewer workers, and he believes the numbers will balance out. "},{"key":"copyright","value":"(c) 2026 Thomson Reuters, unless otherwise identified. Full statement available at https://www.thomsonreuters.com/en/policies/copyright.html"},{"key":"package-no-social","value":"Yes"},{"key":"hidden","value":"false"},{"key":"dateline","value":"Reuters, Reuters, JUL 02"},{"key":"package-restrictions","value":"For Reuters platforms only. . For Reuters customers only."},{"key":"package-mood","value":"Neutral"},{"key":"link","value":"tag:reuters.com,2026:newsml_RW450802072026RP1:4"},{"key":"upstream-channel-code","value":"vty454"},{"key":"upstream-title","value":"Macro Matters: AI job losses 'will be balanced out by demographics'"},{"key":"external-asset-id","value":"285_RW450802072026RP1"},{"key":"lmp-feed","value":"lp"},{"key":"package-notes","value":"AI, inflation, unemployment"},{"key":"publisher-name","value":"reuters.com"},{"key":"package-format","value":"Other"},{"key":"region","value":"Remote"},{"key":"byline","value":"London, UK"}],"usn":"RW450802072026RP1"},{"id":"RW239925062026RP1","type":"video","subtype":"application/x-mpegURL","external_id":"RW239925062026RP1","title":"Macro Matters: Can Europe afford the extreme heat?","description":"Europe is baking under a brutal heat wave that’s breaking temperature records and rattling electricity markets. With productivity already under pressure,  George Buckley from Nomura told Reuters that if the heat fuels inflation, the European Central Bank may have little choice but to step in.","duration":358.33,"transcript_data":{"transcript":"'Europe's in a heatwave and the economic thermometer is flashing reds. This is Macro Matters and we're talking about the extreme heat. The ECB has more than inflation to sweat over. A record-breaking heatwave is sweeping across Europe, disrupting businesses and raising fresh questions about the impact of climate change. Research suggests that these shocks could become harder for policymakers to ignore, hitting growth while pushing up prices at the same time. So are the economic costs getting too hot to handle?' 'Well, let's ask George Buckley, Chief European Economist at Nomura. So, George, some stress tests suggest that by 2030 GDP losses could reach 5-7% in the most exposed economies like France and Germany. So, is extreme heat becoming one of the biggest structural threats to eurozone growth?' 'I think it probably is, Peter I mean, the problem is, of course, is that this comes at a time when productivity growth is not particularly high in Europe as it stands. So, anything which might dent it even further, it's not the job of central banks to directly deal with this, but they might have to indirectly deal with it to the extent that, if we see, for example, food prices rising, that'll put upward pressure on overall inflation. They might have to do a bit more in terms of tightening policy, when maybe no tightening might have been required in order to offset some of that and achieve their inflation goals. And there are a lot of ways that inflation might move on account of climate change. One, of course, is the impact on food prices, which is probably the most obvious. The other is the impact on maybe, some of the decarbonization strategies that are being implemented, because, of course, it's costly to do this. It'll push upward pressure on prices of green tech, for example. So, lots of things to think about when it comes to the impact on both productivity and prices.' 'As well, Europe's power system is under strain with sharp swings in electricity prices. So after euro area, inflation moved back above 3% for the first time in over two years, will energy-driven price pressures continue to heat up?' 'The rise in prices that we've already seen, how much of that will filter through into underlying prices, non-energy prices, via indirect effects, so where companies say, well, our costs have gone up, we have to pass that on, or through second round effects, where people say, well, I'm now expecting higher inflation, I need to push for higher wages. Now, we haven't seen any of those second-round effects as yet. But, there is certainly evidence to suggest that the indirect effect, the pass-through into things like transportation costs, into communication prices, seems to have risen. Whether it's all to do with the oil increase is questionable. But I certainly think that, notwithstanding the fact that oil prices are now a lot lower than where they were, I still think we're in that situation where we are going to see further increases in inflation before it comes down.' 'Let's talk about the fiscal hit though. For example, extreme heat could cost Germany up to $131 billion by 2030. So how can the bloc cope when the heat is turning into a budget pressure cooker?' 'If you think about the way that Europe works, it's never really been set up, particularly the north of Europe, has never been set up to deal with trying to keep the heat out of people's homes and offices. It's always been about trying to keep the heat in during the winter months. So, this is a very different situation that we face, and we will continue to face as the globe warms up. I imagine we will be losing quite a bit of output over the course of this week as people don't go into work, kids don't go into school. There's been a lot of changes which will have an impact on hours worked and therefore output. But from the longer-term perspective, this is going to be something which is likely to happen more regularly and. therefore. those sorts of impacts on growth and potentially inflation will come through more often.' 'Meanwhile, we did get comments from ECB's Schnabel this week, she warned that rates may need to go higher to contain price pressures. Do you agree or do you think the ECB is at risk of overheating the economy?' 'Even before this crisis, by the way, we were talking about the possible need for the ECB to raise interest rates. The other point is that the ECB now thinks that the neutral level of interest rates, the point at which everything is in balance, so where economic growth is running at its trend and inflation is running at target, that point the ECB now thinks is higher than it once was. They think, and certainly Ms. Schnabel thinks it's higher than the ECB's collective view. So, I do think it's understandable why she said what she said, and I wouldn't be surprised, and certainly we have in our own forecast, the ECB moving further to tighten policy on account of what's been going on in energy markets.' 'Finally, George, the EU's U.S. trade deal is now set to come into force, with Brussels hoping it brings some stability amid global tensions. So does this at least take a bit of heat out of relations with President Trump?' 'Will it have a big impact? I mean, the fact that Europe is removing the tariffs that it was setting on industrial goods imports from the U.S. into Europe, I think, is encouraging at the margin. I don't think it's the most important thing for inflation, but it will be encouraging. The U.S. is also capping its tariffs at 15%, still 15%, but it's less than potentially what it could have been. And that also means that it will be positive for growth. So, I think this is one of those things which is actually good for growth. And also pulls down on inflation. And that's what central bankers do like. So I think this is certainly encouraging news.' 'That was George Buckley from Nomura. Don't forget you can watch more videos on Reuters.com'"},"published_time":"2026-06-25T14:23:36Z","updated_time":"2026-06-25T14:23:37Z","thumbnail":{"url":"https://ajo.prod.reuters.tv/api/v2/img/6a3d38d4e4b02f3758a4c453","caption":"Europe is baking under a brutal heat wave that’s breaking temperature records and rattling electricity markets. With productivity already under pressure,  George Buckley from Nomura told Reuters that if the heat fuels inflation, the European Central Bank may have little choice but to step in.","type":"image","resizer_url":"https://ajo.prod.reuters.tv/api/v2/img/6a3d38d4e4b02f3758a4c453"},"source":{"hls":"https://ajo.prod.reuters.tv/v3/playlist/780858/master.m3u8"},"channels":[{"id":"Macro_Matters","name":"Macro Matters","regions":["US"]},{"id":"Markets","name":"Markets","regions":["US"]},{"id":"HPUS","name":"RCOM Homepage US","regions":["US"]},{"id":"6ffc0233e09c26943b265ef3abd575b2d872818b","name":"Business","regions":["US"]}],"advert_info":{"advert_params":[{"key":"adfriendly","value":true}],"advert_zone":"/4735792/reuters.com/markets/stocks"},"meta_data":[{"key":"upstream-description","value":"Europe is baking under a brutal heat wave that’s breaking temperature records and rattling electricity markets. With productivity already under pressure,  George Buckley from Nomura told Reuters that if the heat fuels inflation, the European Central Bank may have little choice but to step in."},{"key":"copyright","value":"(c) 2026 Thomson Reuters, unless otherwise identified. Full statement available at https://www.thomsonreuters.com/en/policies/copyright.html"},{"key":"package-no-social","value":"Yes"},{"key":"hidden","value":"false"},{"key":"dateline","value":"Reuters, Reuters, JUN 25"},{"key":"package-restrictions","value":"For Reuters platforms only. . For Reuters customers only."},{"key":"package-mood","value":"Neutral"},{"key":"link","value":"tag:reuters.com,2026:newsml_RW239925062026RP1:4"},{"key":"upstream-channel-code","value":"vty454"},{"key":"upstream-title","value":"Macro Matters: Can Europe afford the extreme heat?"},{"key":"external-asset-id","value":"285_RW239925062026RP1"},{"key":"lmp-feed","value":"lp"},{"key":"package-notes","value":"GDP, Trade, Heat, Inflation, Trump, Europe, ECB, Interest Rates, Temperature, Climate Change, Growth, Eurozone"},{"key":"publisher-name","value":"reuters.com"},{"key":"package-format","value":"Other"},{"key":"region","value":"Remote"},{"key":"byline","value":"London, UK"}],"usn":"RW239925062026RP1"},{"id":"RW030518062026RP1","type":"video","subtype":"application/x-mpegURL","external_id":"RW030518062026RP1","title":"Macro Matters: Less Fed talk 'could mean more volatility'","description":"New Federal Reserve chair Kevin Warsh kicked off a new era at the Fed with a review of how the central bank communicates, ditching forward guidance on the future path of rates. Odeta Kushi of First American told Reuters that could force markets to focus more on the underlying data, but also cause some short-term swings as traders get used to the new approach. ","duration":320.1,"transcript_data":{"transcript":"The Fed holds, but it sounds hawkish This is Macro Matters and we're talking the Fed. As expected, rates were held steady on Wednesday but investors are braced for future moves to be more sudden as new governor Kevin Warsh dropped guidance on the future path of rates. A stripped down monetary policy statement left traders pricing in a more than even chance the bank hikes in September and possibly even in July. Odeta Kushi is deputy chief economist at First American. Odeta, what did you make then of Warsh's tone at his first meeting? The market has clearly concluded a hike could be coming pretty soon. Well, the new Fed governor, the new Fed chair did certainly highlight the 2 percent inflation target and noted that price stability is key at the moment. He did indicate that, you know, we're doing away with forward guidance. And I think that there are tradeoffs there Forward guidance can be useful. It helps households and businesses and financial markets understand how the Fed is thinking about the likely path of policy. But, the risk is that forward guidance can become a little bit too powerful and markets may stop reacting to the economic data itself. And that's exactly what Warsh highlighted. What do you make then of the possible timing? How soon could that hike be coming I think we would need to see a lot more evidence that inflation is broadening outside of just the energy market. And the recent Iran deal actually improves the situation a little bit. I think it unwinded some of the inflation premium that was embedded in Treasury yields. We saw that happen earlier this week Of course, some of that upward pressure came back after the hawkish hold. But, certainly, an Iran deal would help to ease the mind of FOMC participants. About inflation reacceleration in the second half of the year. Do you think that then that markets have overdone their pricing of a hike, given, as you say, that energy prices are falling now on that agreement between the US and Iran. It remains to be seen. I think we need to wait on more labor market data. Warsh classified the labor market as being stable. And it does seem from recent data points that the labor market is stabilizing and in some instances even showing signs of improvement. So it remains to be seen what the labor market does in the second half of the year and certainly what happens to inflation in the second half of the year. But markets were very quick to respond to the hawkish dot plot. Kevin Warsh didn't add any dot to that dot plot himself. He signaled less communication in the future. Does that mean that markets could be more volatile if they're surprised by future decisions? I think in the near term, less guidance could mean more volatility, especially while markets adjust to a new communication regime. Hopefully that's smoothed out over time. The upside to removing forward guidance is we could see a little bit more policy flexibility and potentially better market price discovery. Was it necessary, do you think, for Warsh to focus on inflation concerns, given worries around the market that he might have been too willing to cut because we know that's what the president wants? Well, right now, inflation is really the primary concern, with the labor market showing signs of stabilizing and the energy crisis pushing up CPI prices to the highest rates since 2023. Inflation really is in the driver's seat. And Warsh reaffirmed several times throughout the press conference yesterday that price stability is the key goal and the 2 percent inflation target will remain in place. How is that language going to translate to the housing market then? Mortgage rates have already moved higher This hawkish hold isn't great news for potential buyers, is it? That's right. And Warsh himself mentioned that monetary policy is uneven. It's tight for housing, but less so elsewhere. We've seen some volatility in mortgage rates. We saw an increase last week after the CPI and then a little bit of a decline after the Iran deal was announced and now back up. So I do believe that the base case for this year is some volatility around a higher for longer rate, but even with mortgage rates at a higher level than we would like. We're still seeing improvements in the housing market. Market rates are still lower than year ago levels Inventory is in a healthier place And we are seeing that income growth continues to outpace house price growth nationally. And that's allowing affordability to very slowly catch up and resulting in a little bit of a healthier housing market. Why do you think that is though, Why are we seeing movement given that, as you say, affordability still isn't in a great place for a lot of Americans seeking to buy a home? Well, inventory improvements are very helpful because not only does it give buyers and sellers more choice, but it allows sort of a ceiling on price growth. And that's what we're seeing. We're seeing that price growth is essentially flat nationwide. In some markets, it's even declining, especially in markets that have seen substantial growth in inventory. So I think the inventory improvement is a big part of that. Some modest affordability improvements, it's bringing buyers and sellers off the sidelines. That's not to say that activity is back to normal. It's been a slow grind higher, but nevertheless exciting to see some improvement in the housing market. That was Odeta Kushi of First American. Don't forget you can watch more videos on Reuters.com."},"published_time":"2026-06-18T13:43:29Z","updated_time":"2026-06-18T13:43:30Z","thumbnail":{"url":"https://ajo.prod.reuters.tv/api/v2/img/6a33f4e2e4b0ad95a7850811","caption":"New Federal Reserve chair Kevin Warsh kicked off a new era at the Fed with a review of how the central bank communicates, ditching forward guidance on the future path of rates. Odeta Kushi of First American told Reuters that could force markets to focus more on the underlying data, but also cause some short-term swings as traders get used to the new approach. ","type":"image","resizer_url":"https://ajo.prod.reuters.tv/api/v2/img/6a33f4e2e4b0ad95a7850811"},"source":{"hls":"https://ajo.prod.reuters.tv/v3/playlist/780085/master.m3u8"},"channels":[{"id":"Macro_Matters","name":"Macro Matters","regions":["US"]},{"id":"6ffc0233e09c26943b265ef3abd575b2d872818b","name":"Business","regions":["US"]}],"advert_info":{"advert_params":[{"key":"adfriendly","value":true}],"advert_zone":"/4735792/reuters.com/markets/stocks"},"meta_data":[{"key":"upstream-description","value":"New Federal Reserve chair Kevin Warsh kicked off a new era at the Fed with a review of how the central bank communicates, ditching forward guidance on the future path of rates. Odeta Kushi of First American told Reuters that could force markets to focus more on the underlying data, but also cause some short-term swings as traders get used to the new approach. "},{"key":"copyright","value":"(c) 2026 Thomson Reuters, unless otherwise identified. Full statement available at https://www.thomsonreuters.com/en/policies/copyright.html"},{"key":"package-no-social","value":"Yes"},{"key":"hidden","value":"false"},{"key":"dateline","value":"Reuters, Reuters, JUN 18"},{"key":"package-restrictions","value":"For Reuters platforms only. . For Reuters customers only."},{"key":"package-mood","value":"Neutral"},{"key":"link","value":"tag:reuters.com,2026:newsml_RW030518062026RP1:4"},{"key":"upstream-channel-code","value":"vty454"},{"key":"upstream-title","value":"Macro Matters: Less Fed talk 'could mean more volatility'"},{"key":"external-asset-id","value":"285_RW030518062026RP1"},{"key":"lmp-feed","value":"lp"},{"key":"package-notes","value":"inflation, Federal Reserve, Kevin Warsh"},{"key":"publisher-name","value":"reuters.com"},{"key":"package-format","value":"Other"},{"key":"region","value":"Remote"},{"key":"byline","value":"London, UK"}],"usn":"RW030518062026RP1"},{"id":"RW804811062026RP1","type":"video","subtype":"application/x-mpegURL","external_id":"RW804811062026RP1","title":"Macro Matters: ECB 'could reverse rate rises next year'","description":"The European Central Bank put up interest rates on Thursday in an attempt to head off higher inflation induced by the Iran war. Chris Hare of HSBC told Reuters they could be in a position to bring them back down next year, but that depends on whether the disruption to oil supplies drags on.  ","duration":265.83,"transcript_data":{"transcript":"The ECB raises rates, but can it nip inflation in the bud? And we're talking the Policymakers in Frankfurt hiked rates this Thursday for the first time in almost three years. They're hoping to clamp down on inflation before the Iran Wars impact on energy costs spreads more widely across the economy. But can they pull it Chris Hare is an economist at HSBC Global Banking and Markets. Chris, can higher rates head off inflation going much higher this year? No, not really. High rates we know work through the economy with long and variable lags and the kind of impacts on the broader economy we shouldn't expect for a year, 18 months at least, really. But I guess the motivation behind rate rises is, well, if you've got an energy shock that feeds through into broader inflation pressure and wage and price setting, then ultimately that would affect inflation in a year's time. And you've got to raise rates to respond against that now, while also trying to keep a lid on inflation. Expectations and those are the kind of things that seem to be underpinning the ECB's decision today. Some ECB watchers have said this is about credibility after the central bank didn't react fast enough in 2022. Could they end up regretting moving now? Well, Christine Lagarde said this isn't about credibility, this is not an insurance interest rate rise, it's an interest rate rise that is the correct and warranted response to the whole range of scenarios that the ECB publish, i.e., you know, in all scenarios, given energy prices where they are, you may need to raise rates, uh, you know, um, given, given the current juncture in these conceivable scenarios. That said though, we in our forecasts, we were expecting this rate rise, so was everyone. We've got another couple of rate rises in our forecasts, but fast forward to next year, we think ultimately we're not going to get too much by way of second round effects on wage and price setting. We think that ultimately, if, it's a big if, if the situation in the Middle East. Does come to a resolution, inflation could come back down and the ECB can reverse those interest rate rises potentially next year. Now if that turns out to be the case, ex post, you could see some commentators saying, well, maybe you shouldn't have raised rates in the first place. So I think the broader narrative is going to be up for debate for some time. Well Christine Lagarde has warned today that an ongoing closure of the straighter formers could force firms to cut output in Europe and really hit growth. Has that been slower to take effect than you were expecting? Yes, to a degree, there's been a bit of resilience we think in the business surveys and in the hard economic data that we've seen so far. If we look at the manufacturing survey, still in growth territory across Europe, although that could be front-running behaviour ahead of higher cost pressures. I guess the way that we tend to think about it is for Europe in general we've got higher inflation, but it's. And that's set to be a squeeze on household demand in particular, and that's the main lever by which we think the risks to the broader economy lie. But that takes time to actually A great big initial wave of economic uncertainty and the dampening effect that that's having on business activity is something we could see, but not quite yet. It's more through the consumer channel that we're most concerned about the economic outlook. Well, the World Bank has today forecast Eurozone growth of just 0.8% this year, citing oil prices. Does that sound too bleak to you or not bleak enough? Growth of just below 1% doesn't seem unreasonable in our view. There was a bit of a mechanical thing going on in the first quarter. We had a big drop in GDP in Ireland, but a lot of that's to do with farmer-related activity. So mechanically, growth actually is likely to have been a bit firmer than that. Ultimately, we do see a bit of growth, even in scenarios whereby energy prices stay where they are for a while, before then eventually coming back down. That's our kind of baseline scenario It's that easy. Baseline scenario, you've got this squeeze on household incomes. You've got a potential headwind to business confidence. It's likely to lead to slower growth, but not necessarily a recession. Of course, uglier scenarios are If it turns out that the Middle East conflict continues, we have some of those upside risks to energy prices and supply chain really do crystallize, then it could be that we're in a world where those 0.8 sort of growth numbers start looking too optimistic. That was Chris Hare of HSBC. Don't forget you can watch more videos on Reuters.com."},"published_time":"2026-06-11T14:55:02Z","updated_time":"2026-06-11T14:55:04Z","thumbnail":{"url":"https://ajo.prod.reuters.tv/api/v2/img/6a2acb6be4b0c57015e1116b","caption":"The European Central Bank put up interest rates on Thursday in an attempt to head off higher inflation induced by the Iran war. Chris Hare of HSBC told Reuters they could be in a position to bring them back down next year, but that depends on whether the disruption to oil supplies drags on.  ","type":"image","resizer_url":"https://ajo.prod.reuters.tv/api/v2/img/6a2acb6be4b0c57015e1116b"},"source":{"hls":"https://ajo.prod.reuters.tv/v3/playlist/779278/master.m3u8"},"channels":[{"id":"Macro_Matters","name":"Macro Matters","regions":["US"]},{"id":"6ffc0233e09c26943b265ef3abd575b2d872818b","name":"Business","regions":["US"]}],"advert_info":{"advert_params":[{"key":"adfriendly","value":true}],"advert_zone":"/4735792/reuters.com/markets/stocks"},"meta_data":[{"key":"upstream-description","value":"The European Central Bank put up interest rates on Thursday in an attempt to head off higher inflation induced by the Iran war. Chris Hare of HSBC told Reuters they could be in a position to bring them back down next year, but that depends on whether the disruption to oil supplies drags on.  "},{"key":"copyright","value":"(c) 2026 Thomson Reuters, unless otherwise identified. Full statement available at https://www.thomsonreuters.com/en/policies/copyright.html"},{"key":"package-no-social","value":"Yes"},{"key":"hidden","value":"false"},{"key":"dateline","value":"Reuters, Reuters, JUN 11"},{"key":"package-restrictions","value":"For Reuters platforms only. . For Reuters customers only."},{"key":"package-mood","value":"Neutral"},{"key":"link","value":"tag:reuters.com,2026:newsml_RW804811062026RP1:4"},{"key":"upstream-channel-code","value":"vty454"},{"key":"upstream-title","value":"Macro Matters: ECB 'could reverse rate rises next year'"},{"key":"external-asset-id","value":"285_RW804811062026RP1"},{"key":"lmp-feed","value":"lp"},{"key":"package-notes","value":"ECB, inflation, growth, oil"},{"key":"publisher-name","value":"reuters.com"},{"key":"package-format","value":"Other"},{"key":"region","value":"Remote"},{"key":"byline","value":"London, UK"}],"usn":"RW804811062026RP1"},{"id":"RW602504062026RP1","type":"video","subtype":"application/x-mpegURL","external_id":"RW602504062026RP1","title":"Macro Matters: Is the US jobs market Iran-proof?","description":"U.S. job openings surged in April to their highest level in nearly two years, proving the labour market’s resilience as the Iran war drags on. Mark Fleming from First American told Reuters that it’s a ‘low hire, low fire’ stalemate - not a dynamic market, but not one that will drive unemployment higher.","duration":263.03,"transcript_data":{"transcript":"The US labour market keeps defying the odds, but for how much longer? This is Macro Matters and we're talking about jobs. As Kevin Warsh takes the helm at his first Fed meeting this month, all eyes will be on this Friday's US employment report. Despite months of conflict in Iran, the American labour market has remained surprisingly resilient. Payroll growth has held up, unemployment remains low and the economic damage many feared has yet to materialise. But how long can that resilience last Well, let's ask Mark Fleming, chief economist at First American. So Mark, ADP this week showed private payrolls rising by 122,000 a me- That was after 105,000 previously. Does that point to another solid job support this Friday? What are you expecting? Likely. I mean, the ADP numbers can be volatile, don't necessarily strongly predict the big Friday reports at the beginning of every month. But yeah, the labor market seems to be doing well. We're actually generating more jobs at the moment, it seems, than the breakeven rate would suggest we need to, which essentially indicates a tight labor market. The job opening layoff and turnover report that came out earlier this week also showed the same thing. In fact, a relatively rare circumstance, which is about one job opening for every unemployed person. So the labor market seems pretty tight, which is a good condition. What the Fed might have to do Mark you did mention those higher JOLTS numbers this week yet business surveys are showing hiring slowing and confidence weakening so why isn't that anxiety showing up in the data? So you have this low higher, low fire market. It's sort of one where nothing's really moving. Uh, that would be different from one where there's high fire, low hire that would raise the unemployment rate. So it's not necessarily a good feeling market because not much is happening, but it doesn't necessarily portend a market. Would push the unemployment rate higher Some warnings from the OECD this week, they saw a prolonged Middle East disruption could drive global growth below 2% and tip some economies into recession. Is that a realistic risk or overly pessimistic? I think for certain countries, the risk of the energy crisis is more detrimental to their economy. The US, luckily, doesn't have as much of a risk there. And we're also experiencing some very strong tailwinds, like in the AI capital expenditure boom and the one big, beautiful bill. So there's lots of mitigating effects that would reduce the risk of recession here. Let's talk about AI now and Meta is cutting thousands of jobs even as it ramps up spending on artificial intelligence. So as the market continues to rally higher on the AI boom, does it spell doom for the labour market? Well, the labor market in the United States is very large and not everybody works for one of the big hyperscaler or AI companies. And so while even though there might be adjustments being made in those areas, it's still a relatively small share of the overall labor market. Let's talk about the Fed now and policy makers are increasingly warning that inflation risks remain elevated and Laurie Logan this week called for a rate hike this year. So will Kevin Warsh be able to keep the hawkish voices at bay? That's gonna be a real challenge. I mean, we just talked about a labor market that is quite strong or steady and holding a very low unemployment rate at the same time as certainly inflation beginning to sort of rise again due to energy prices and then energy costs actually sort of perniciously working their way into other parts of the economy. And so in the dual mandate, there's more reason to hold the line or even raise rates. And market probabilities suggest, actually, that there could be one or even two increases. The end of this year. Analysts, as well, expect Bernanke to begin revamping the Fed's communication strategy as soon as this month. Are we entering an era of less forward guidance from the central bank? Quite possibly, but that's actually not necessarily a rare thing. In fact, the forward guidance concept is only about 20 years or yet less old. It came out during the global financial crisis. So it used to be the case that the Fed really didn't say much. Telegraph much in the first place. So Mark that's finished on the housing market and new home sales this week fell more than expected in April. So is the housing market still waiting for lower rates or deeper affordability problems becoming entrenched? Well, it's clear that obviously higher rates, sort of the mid to high sixes are tempering affordability relative to the low sixes, and that is taking people off the market. But I think at this point, many people are actually choosing to move not because of rates, but because of life events. And that's sort of going to be the underpinning of the market going forward. That was Mark Fleming from First America. And don't forget you can watch more videos on Reuters.com."},"published_time":"2026-06-04T13:54:01Z","updated_time":"2026-06-04T13:54:03Z","thumbnail":{"url":"https://ajo.prod.reuters.tv/api/v2/img/6a21828ee4b096c1fe7e015c","caption":"U.S. job openings surged in April to their highest level in nearly two years, proving the labour market’s resilience as the Iran war drags on. Mark Fleming from First American told Reuters that it’s a ‘low hire, low fire’ stalemate - not a dynamic market, but not one that will drive unemployment higher.","type":"image","resizer_url":"https://ajo.prod.reuters.tv/api/v2/img/6a21828ee4b096c1fe7e015c"},"source":{"hls":"https://ajo.prod.reuters.tv/v3/playlist/778543/master.m3u8"},"channels":[{"id":"Macro_Matters","name":"Macro Matters","regions":["US"]},{"id":"6ffc0233e09c26943b265ef3abd575b2d872818b","name":"Business","regions":["US"]}],"advert_info":{"advert_params":[{"key":"adfriendly","value":true}],"advert_zone":"/4735792/reuters.com/markets/stocks"},"meta_data":[{"key":"upstream-description","value":"U.S. job openings surged in April to their highest level in nearly two years, proving the labour market’s resilience as the Iran war drags on. 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For Reuters customers only."},{"key":"package-mood","value":"Neutral"},{"key":"link","value":"tag:reuters.com,2026:newsml_RW602504062026RP1:4"},{"key":"upstream-channel-code","value":"vty454"},{"key":"upstream-title","value":"Macro Matters: Is the US jobs market Iran-proof?"},{"key":"external-asset-id","value":"285_RW602504062026RP1"},{"key":"lmp-feed","value":"lp"},{"key":"package-notes","value":"Meta, Employment, Nonfarm, Iran, Strait, Trump, Warsh, OECD, Hormuz, Jobs, Property, Housing, Interest Rates, Payrolls, Fed, AI"},{"key":"publisher-name","value":"reuters.com"},{"key":"package-format","value":"Other"},{"key":"region","value":"Remote"},{"key":"byline","value":"London, UK"}],"usn":"RW602504062026RP1"},{"id":"RW421128052026RP1","type":"video","subtype":"application/x-mpegURL","external_id":"RW421128052026RP1","title":"Macro Matters: 'Several higher inflation prints' needed before the Fed might hike","description":"U.S. inflation chalked up another hot reading on Thursday, while several Federal Reserve officials have said this week they believe high inflation will be sustained beyond the energy shock. Economist Odeta Kushi of First American told Reuters this week's data didn't change much for the Fed, and the bar to a rate hike remains high. ","duration":201.2,"transcript_data":{"transcript":"US inflation comes in hot, increasing pressure on the Fed. This is Macro matters and we're talking inflation. The Fed's most-watched measure of prices, the PCE index, increased at its fastest pace in three years in April and several Federal Reserve policymakers have said they're not convinced the inflationary shock is transitory. Higher energy might not be the only factor pushing prices higher, Austan Goolsbee said this week. Things like soaring prices for memory chips and the power demand from data centres are also playing a role. Odeta Kushi is deputy chief economist at First American. Odeta, what have we learned from today's data? Well, I don't think that today's data materially changes the Fed stance. We know that inflation is at the highest rate since 2023, but the month over month growth came in a little bit softer than expected. But even with that, it's still materially above where the Fed wants it to be at 2%. And so I still think that today's data keeps the Fed in a wait and see stance. Now, textbook monetary policy will tell us that the Fed should look through oil price shocks. But I think that the more sustained the shock, the more likely that the Fed turns hawkish. How widespread are these price pressures now, though, beyond the energy sector? Well, we do see that core consumer prices. So that's removing the impact of energy and food that remains higher than where the Fed wants it to be. So in this month's report, it was 3.3 percent, the highest since fall 2023. So that gives us some indication that energy is is the impact is broadening outside of just the energy sector. So even President Trump now seems to be accepting that a rate cut's not coming any time soon. He said this week that new chair Kevin Moore should do what he feels is necessary. But where is the bar, do you think, for the Fed to seriously be thinking about a hike? I think that we would need to see several more prints of higher inflation, sustained inflation. That would need to be the case for the Fed to consider hiking. I still think at this next meeting we'll still be in a hold, wait and see stance as of today. They'll need to see several more reports. What does all this mean for America' I think it means higher for longer interest rates at the moment. When we look at the U.S. housing market, we can see that the U.S. Treasury is back up. Mortgage rates are above 6.5% As we sit in the crucial spring home buying season, those mortgage rates have moved higher since the beginning of the year. Affordability is still better in the real estate sector than it was a year ago, but with higher mortgage rates, we do see that the pressure is starting to increase. Are you expecting to see more movement in the housing market then than we did last year or are people going to keep waiting to move in the hope that rates come down? We could see some buyers move of sidelines After all, the decision to buy and sell a home is not strictly financial. It's also lifestyle-driven. We've had several years of pent up demand in the housing market. And we do know the inventory conditions have improved since year ago levels. So I do expect some movement in the housing market, but I do think that higher mortgage rates certainly blunts the momentum in this year's spring home buying season. That was Odeta Kushi of First American. Don't forget you can watch more videos on Reuters.com."},"published_time":"2026-05-28T14:42:49Z","updated_time":"2026-05-28T14:42:52Z","thumbnail":{"url":"https://ajo.prod.reuters.tv/api/v2/img/6a18539fe4b0e8e2489c81b0","caption":"U.S. inflation chalked up another hot reading on Thursday, while several Federal Reserve officials have said this week they believe high inflation will be sustained beyond the energy shock. Economist Odeta Kushi of First American told Reuters this week's data didn't change much for the Fed, and the bar to a rate hike remains high. ","type":"image","resizer_url":"https://ajo.prod.reuters.tv/api/v2/img/6a18539fe4b0e8e2489c81b0"},"source":{"hls":"https://ajo.prod.reuters.tv/v3/playlist/776438/master.m3u8"},"channels":[{"id":"Macro_Matters","name":"Macro Matters","regions":["US"]},{"id":"Markets","name":"Markets","regions":["US"]},{"id":"MarketsNow","name":"Markets Now","regions":["US"]},{"id":"6ffc0233e09c26943b265ef3abd575b2d872818b","name":"Business","regions":["US"]}],"advert_info":{"advert_params":[{"key":"adfriendly","value":true}],"advert_zone":"/4735792/reuters.com/markets/stocks"},"meta_data":[{"key":"upstream-description","value":"U.S. inflation chalked up another hot reading on Thursday, while several Federal Reserve officials have said this week they believe high inflation will be sustained beyond the energy shock. Economist Odeta Kushi of First American told Reuters this week's data didn't change much for the Fed, and the bar to a rate hike remains high. "},{"key":"copyright","value":"(c) 2026 Thomson Reuters, unless otherwise identified. Full statement available at https://www.thomsonreuters.com/en/policies/copyright.html"},{"key":"package-no-social","value":"Yes"},{"key":"hidden","value":"false"},{"key":"dateline","value":"Reuters, Reuters, MAY 28"},{"key":"package-restrictions","value":"For Reuters platforms only. . For Reuters customers only."},{"key":"package-mood","value":"Neutral"},{"key":"link","value":"tag:reuters.com,2026:newsml_RW421128052026RP1:4"},{"key":"upstream-channel-code","value":"vty454"},{"key":"upstream-title","value":"Macro Matters: 'Several higher inflation prints' needed before the Fed might hike"},{"key":"external-asset-id","value":"285_RW421128052026RP1"},{"key":"lmp-feed","value":"lp"},{"key":"package-notes","value":"inflation, Federal Reserve, energy prices"},{"key":"publisher-name","value":"reuters.com"},{"key":"package-format","value":"Other"},{"key":"region","value":"Remote"},{"key":"byline","value":"London, UK"}],"usn":"RW421128052026RP1"},{"id":"RW250321052026RP1","type":"video","subtype":"application/x-mpegURL","external_id":"RW250321052026RP1","title":"Macro Matters: 'Overriding issue for bond markets is inflation' not politics","description":"The UK could be facing its seventh Prime Minister in ten years, with Manchester mayor Andy Burnham widely expected to launch a challenge to Keir Starmer if he returns to Parliament next month. Candidates are being scrutinised over the potential bond market reaction to their economic plans, but James Smith of ING told Reuters markets still care a lot more about oil prices than politics. ","duration":320.36,"transcript_data":{"transcript":"The UK could soon have a new Prime Minister, but what could that mean for the economy? Macro matters and we're talking about the UK's future. Prime Minister Keir Starmer's time in office has started to look limited as Manchester Mayor Andy Burnham is expected to launch a challenge for the leadership if he's successful in returning to parliament in a by-election next month. Former Health Secretary Wes Streeting has also said he would run. Numbers this week have made the economic challenge that would face any candidate clear. There's been a surprise jump in unemployment and while inflation came in lower than forecast at 2.8%, current Finance Minister Rachel Reeves announced new measures to deal with the cost of living on Thursday amid fears the UK could be facing a severe price crunch if the conflict in Iran drags on for much longer. Well, James Smith is a developed markets economist, ING James, let's set the scene for this race first. The rise in unemployment in particular made the UK economy look perhaps weaker than economists thought this week. Yeah, I wouldn't pay too much attention to the latest moves in the unemployment rate has been bouncing around. It fell quite dramatically last month. But the overall gist of the data this week is that the UK jobs market is still in a fragile place. Hiring or employment is still falling back and wage growth has come quite lower, quite a bit lower as well. The latest surveys as well looking less good for the service sector. So yeah, the UK enters the Iran crisis, the oil crisis in a slightly fragile state. So it looks like the front runner in this political contest at the moment is Andy Burnham. What do we know about his economic plans I think there's still a lot we don't really know, or at least some of the details. We know, probably, that an Andy Burnham government might look to boost investment, social housing, and defence, like a lot of countries. Under the spotlight, greater involvement in key industries as well. Exactly what sort of Public-private model that might involve still a bit of a question mark. There's some talk about reforming taxes, capital gains taxes under the spotlight, possibly reforming that with income tax. So there's a lot of moving parts here and for the economy, for markets, it's kind of hard to know exactly what it will mean until we know sort of the finer details. He made bond investors nervous when he said last year that Britain shouldn't be in hawk to the bond markets. He has rolled back on that a bit But what can he do to prevent a backlash from bond markets? Well, I think it is commitment to those fiscal rules that's going to be pretty key. I think investors are sensitive to anything that might herald a big jump in borrowing and guilt issuance over the next couple of years. I mean, I think what we've seen over the last few days is indicative of what we might see if there is indeed to be a leadership contest this summer, which is, I think all of the leadership candidates will be under a lot of. Pressure to rule out big changes to the fiscal rules, you know, that 2022 mini budget crisis which saw guilt yields spiralling. Nobody wants to repeat that, particularly if it's a sort of first act in office. So you know, I think it's going to be under heavy scrutiny over the next few months, and as I say, I think candidates will be treading around this issue very carefully. Other than borrowing, the other lever politicians can pull is of course tax. Wes Streeting, who's also expected to run, said today he'd tax capital gains at the same rate as income. What consequences would that have? Should we worry about the impact on investment in Britain? Again, it kind of depends on the detail, right? You know, capital gains tax, you know, who does it apply to, what sort of assets, you know, these are all details that will matter. And of course, you know, there's a lot of question marks as to how much of these things might. Raise if we do get changes, you know, capital gains tax, you know, on paper, equalising with income tax, maybe it raises sort of 10 to 12 billion extra on paper, but there's a lot of behavioural effects you've got to take into account as well if people shift their investments and so on. So yeah, the details really matter on this sort of thing to determine the impact. More broadly, how did we get here, James, to a place where bond markets are so concerned about any small policy nuances in the UK and how can Britain get out of it in the longer term? I think we've got to remember, there's a lot of focus on the politics right now, and guilty yields have obviously been sensitive to this as an issue. But right now, the overriding issue for bond markets is inflation, is oil prices, is what's the Bank of England going to do next? That's ultimately what's setting the big picture borrowing cost landscape for the UK. We've seen borrowing costs come down a little bit over the last few days. The data, inflation data, is a bit more benign than expected. There's a reappraisal going on as to how far the... Of England might be willing to hike rates I've long felt that markets might be overestimating the extent of possible tightening on the way. So I think that's the key focus and politics is kind of moving things at the moment more at the margin. Ultimately then, bond yields are more about global factors, like the war in the Middle East, factors no Prime Minister can control than factors they can. I think at this stage, yeah, I mean when we look at, for example, shorter term borrowing costs, maybe like 2 year yields, that's almost exclusively being driven by oil prices right now, and this isn't just in the UK. We're seeing exactly the same thing across Europe. So to take a view on bond yields, you need to take a view on what's happening in the Middle East and what's going to happen to energy prices over the next few months. That was James Smith of ING. Don't forget you can watch more videos on Reuters.com."},"published_time":"2026-05-21T14:02:25Z","updated_time":"2026-05-21T14:02:27Z","thumbnail":{"url":"https://ajo.prod.reuters.tv/api/v2/img/6a0f0f94e4b0d1ee92a8fed7","caption":"The UK could be facing its seventh Prime Minister in ten years, with Manchester mayor Andy Burnham widely expected to launch a challenge to Keir Starmer if he returns to Parliament next month. Candidates are being scrutinised over the potential bond market reaction to their economic plans, but James Smith of ING told Reuters markets still care a lot more about oil prices than politics. ","type":"image","resizer_url":"https://ajo.prod.reuters.tv/api/v2/img/6a0f0f94e4b0d1ee92a8fed7"},"source":{"hls":"https://ajo.prod.reuters.tv/v3/playlist/773890/master.m3u8"},"channels":[{"id":"Macro_Matters","name":"Macro Matters","regions":["US"]},{"id":"Markets","name":"Markets","regions":["US"]},{"id":"MarketsNow","name":"Markets Now","regions":["US"]},{"id":"6ffc0233e09c26943b265ef3abd575b2d872818b","name":"Business","regions":["US"]}],"advert_info":{"advert_params":[{"key":"adfriendly","value":true}],"advert_zone":"/4735792/reuters.com/markets/stocks"},"meta_data":[{"key":"upstream-description","value":"The UK could be facing its seventh Prime Minister in ten years, with Manchester mayor Andy Burnham widely expected to launch a challenge to Keir Starmer if he returns to Parliament next month. Candidates are being scrutinised over the potential bond market reaction to their economic plans, but James Smith of ING told Reuters markets still care a lot more about oil prices than politics. "},{"key":"copyright","value":"(c) 2026 Thomson Reuters, unless otherwise identified. Full statement available at https://www.thomsonreuters.com/en/policies/copyright.html"},{"key":"package-no-social","value":"Yes"},{"key":"hidden","value":"false"},{"key":"dateline","value":"Reuters, Reuters, MAY 21"},{"key":"package-restrictions","value":"For Reuters platforms only. . For Reuters customers only."},{"key":"package-mood","value":"Neutral"},{"key":"link","value":"tag:reuters.com,2026:newsml_RW250321052026RP1:4"},{"key":"upstream-channel-code","value":"vty454"},{"key":"upstream-title","value":"Macro Matters: 'Overriding issue for bond markets is inflation' not politics"},{"key":"external-asset-id","value":"285_RW250321052026RP1"},{"key":"lmp-feed","value":"lp"},{"key":"package-notes","value":"bonds, inflation, Keir Starmer, Andy Burnham"},{"key":"publisher-name","value":"reuters.com"},{"key":"package-format","value":"Other"},{"key":"region","value":"Remote"},{"key":"byline","value":"London, UK"}],"usn":"RW250321052026RP1"},{"id":"RW060214052026RP1","type":"video","subtype":"application/x-mpegURL","external_id":"RW060214052026RP1","title":"Macro Matters: 'Warsh has a very interesting balancing act'","description":"Kevin Warsh has said he wants to reform the Federal Reserve - and on Friday, he takes the chair. But as Lauren Saidel-Baker of ITR Economics told Reuters, inflation is rising sharply for reasons that are wider and deeper than the war in Iran, meaning Warsh may be pushed into policy moves that are the opposite of his stated aims.","duration":353.7,"transcript_data":{"transcript":"Kevin Warsh wants to see regime change at the Fed, but that could be tricky to pull off. This is Macro Matters, and we're talking about Kevin Warsh. The new chair takes over at the Fed this Friday. He's criticised everything from the Fed's communication style to the size of its balance sheet to how it measures inflation, but before he tries to reform the central bank he's facing some immediate challenges. Earlier on Thursday, the yield on US 30-year Treasuries popped over 5% after producer prices clocked up their biggest increase in four years, as the rising price of oil feeds through global supply chains and puts pressure on households. Lauren Saidel-Baker is an economist at ITR Economics. Lauren, inflation numbers this week really summed up the size of Warsh's task ahead, didn't they? But raising rates isn't going to lower global oil prices. How can Warsh negotiate this? Warsh has a very interesting balancing act that he will have to complete, both from the political side of things. Clearly, the administration who nominated him in the first place really has a view that rates should be lower. He has in the past said that things like AI and tech innovation should increase the essentially run-rate growth for GDP in a way that rates could be lower. However, when you get a 6% PPI print, that does not argue for lower rates. If anything, that would be an impetus for rates to increase from this point forward. Now, with the PPI numbers, we always want to be clear: one month of data does not make a trend. But this month of data came on the heels of a rather hot February and March. So I think this is more structural with inflation. It's not just oil prices. There are other factors moving through the economy that are pushing costs higher. That's something that Morris is going to have to negotiate as he tries to build consensus across members of the Fed voting committee. Right, so this is more now than inflation being a short-term effect. Has the war in Iran done bigger damage to the U.S. economy even if it ends soon? So there are two ways to look at this. The first one is the general inflation. And yes, we are seeing higher oil prices feed through supply chains. Interestingly, though, we're seeing inflation on both the goods and the services side of the economy. So I want to be very intentional in saying this. It is not just oil prices that are breeding higher inflation and higher costs overall. It's wages. It's general liquidity out there. We've had both monetary and fiscal policy and relatively accommodative stances. And so there are these fundamental drivers that are a little harder to get at, right? We can end the war. Open the strait. That doesn't mean that all costs will go back down, or even that inflation rates overall will go back down. I think the real risk to the macro economy from higher oil prices, that is a little bit more muted in my mind. We're seeing a lower share of consumer spending going toward their total energy spend compared to decades past. So the pass-through in terms of, I'm spending more at the gas pump, therefore I must spend less in other areas. That's not quite so acute as it would have been for the U.S. consumer 10, 20, 30 years ago. So, I think the macroeconomic impacts—these are something we can weather. The consumer is still on very stable footing, but they're going to complain about these higher prices. Well, as you say, we know that Warsh wants to cut rates, but from here, could the Fed be forced into a hike just to retain its credibility with inflation at this level? Very possible, I think Fed independence and Fed credibility is absolutely paramount as we move forward, and Warsh as much as he. Has in the past signaled some dovish intent. He's only one voting member on that committee. He single-handedly cannot determine where rates are going. He will try to build consensus and have those discussions internally. But I think it is interesting to note just the layout of the Fed, the types of additional individuals there. Many governors recently have been talking more about inflation, clearly shifting their focus more to whether rates will need to rise in order to head off this inflation. No one on that committee wants to see inflation get out of hand. And as you say, they already look divided. Outgoing Chair Jerome Powell is going to stay on the board, another potentially divergent voice from Warsh's are we going to see more division on the board going forward? Yes, we have absolutely seen increased dissent, increased division. That dots plot is getting a little bit spread out every time we see it. So, I don't think that Powell will be something like a shadow chair. He's really addressed this proactively to say he just wants to see the DOJ investigation through to its absolute final conclusion, and then he will likely step down. I don't expect him to outright undermine Warsh, for example, but there are very different viewpoints. I think the good news is that these viewpoints are all coming from a real academic basis. This is not where someone wants rates to be. It really is everyone working for the best possible outcome as they see it. And we do just have different views in different people. We know that, in the longer term Lauren, Warsh wants quite a different approach. She wants to shrink the Fed's balance sheet substantially. And he said that might justify lower short-term rates. Does that seem logical? Yes, you know, it's interesting to think the last time that he was a member of the Fed, that was back really during the financial crisis, the 2008 kind of timeframe. He was a very hawkish individual at that time. So, to see this additional push from him now, with, again, a very different mental background for why rates need to be lower, it is something of a change from when he was previously a Fed member, when he was... Again, pushing for higher interest rates, things like that balance sheet size. I think it's always a little bit of give and take. But knowing that these are the tools that the Fed has, the levers they can pull, primarily we're looking to them for their interest rate decisions. I think that is the one that will garner the most attention. That was Lauren Saidel-Baker of ITR Economics. Don't forget, you can watch more videos on Reuters.com."},"published_time":"2026-05-14T13:51:13Z","updated_time":"2026-05-14T13:51:14Z","thumbnail":{"url":"https://ajo.prod.reuters.tv/api/v2/img/6a05d24de4b0d1ee92a8e268","caption":"Kevin Warsh has said he wants to reform the Federal Reserve - and on Friday, he takes the chair. But as Lauren Saidel-Baker of ITR Economics told Reuters, inflation is rising sharply for reasons that are wider and deeper than the war in Iran, meaning Warsh may be pushed into policy moves that are the opposite of his stated aims.","type":"image","resizer_url":"https://ajo.prod.reuters.tv/api/v2/img/6a05d24de4b0d1ee92a8e268"},"source":{"hls":"https://ajo.prod.reuters.tv/v3/playlist/771488/master.m3u8"},"channels":[{"id":"Macro_Matters","name":"Macro Matters","regions":["US"]},{"id":"6ffc0233e09c26943b265ef3abd575b2d872818b","name":"Business","regions":["US"]}],"advert_info":{"advert_params":[{"key":"adfriendly","value":true}],"advert_zone":"/4735792/reuters.com/markets/stocks"},"meta_data":[{"key":"upstream-description","value":"Kevin Warsh has said he wants to reform the Federal Reserve - and on Friday, he takes the chair. But as Lauren Saidel-Baker of ITR Economics told Reuters, inflation is rising sharply for reasons that are wider and deeper than the war in Iran, meaning Warsh may be pushed into policy moves that are the opposite of his stated aims."},{"key":"copyright","value":"(c) 2026 Thomson Reuters, unless otherwise identified. Full statement available at https://www.thomsonreuters.com/en/policies/copyright.html"},{"key":"package-no-social","value":"Yes"},{"key":"hidden","value":"false"},{"key":"dateline","value":"Reuters, Reuters, MAY 14"},{"key":"package-restrictions","value":"For Reuters platforms only. . For Reuters customers only."},{"key":"package-mood","value":"Neutral"},{"key":"link","value":"tag:reuters.com,2026:newsml_RW060214052026RP1:4"},{"key":"upstream-channel-code","value":"vty454"},{"key":"upstream-title","value":"Macro Matters: 'Warsh has a very interesting balancing act'"},{"key":"external-asset-id","value":"285_RW060214052026RP1"},{"key":"lmp-feed","value":"lp"},{"key":"package-notes","value":"Kevin Warsh, Federal Reserve, inflation"},{"key":"publisher-name","value":"reuters.com"},{"key":"package-format","value":"Other"},{"key":"region","value":"Remote"},{"key":"byline","value":"London, UK"}],"usn":"RW060214052026RP1"},{"id":"RW856807052026RP1","type":"video","subtype":"application/x-mpegURL","external_id":"RW856807052026RP1","title":"Macro Matters: 'Still possible' the Bank of England does not need to hike rates","description":"The UK's dependence on imported gas makes it vulnerable to the recent hike in energy prices, but economist Liz Martins from HSBC told Reuters businesses have in some ways been surprisingly resilient thus far. She also said the Bank of England would much prefer not to hike rates, but that depends on oil supply quickly resuming. ","duration":326.6,"transcript_data":{"transcript":"Markets are hoping for a resolution in the Middle East, but has the damage already been done? Macro matters, and we're talking inflation. Reports are that Iran is reviewing a U.S. peace proposal that could bring the conflict to an end. But oil analysts say supplies will stay tight regardless because it will take weeks for oil shipments to resume from the Gulf and reach refiners worldwide. So, has the inflationary impact already done damage to the British economy? Liz Martin is UK Economist at HSBC. Liz, how much wider impact are we already seeing beyond petrol prices at the pump? Well, I think if we look at the Business Activity Surveys, they don't look too bad yet. Actually, in contrast to some other economies, particularly around the Eurozone, UK activity picked back up in April, at least according to the PMI survey, and the employment intentions didn't look too bad either. So, I think we have seen a degree of resilience from British companies so far. Where they do report, the stress is on the price side of things. So, I mean, for sure. Is an inflation impact here? Whatever happens from here in the Middle East, even in a very best-case scenario, there is an inflationary process to play out, which is frustrating just as the UK was starting to get inflation under control. Consumer confidence has also fallen back understandably, inflation expectations have risen. So, you know, a speedy resolution will really help on that front. But some damage, I think, has been done. Well, as you say, a number of companies, including retailers like Next and the supermarket chains, have warned they will need to put prices up. Where is the consumer going to be hardest hit by this? I think an energy shock has a number of phases. The first phase is the direct hit, which is your fuel filling up your car and perhaps your household energy bills. The second is the indirect bit, which is where, for example, the pub down the road, their energy bills have gone up and therefore they need to put the prices up on the menu. That's the indirect bit. And the third bit, which is what central banks are really worried about, is second-round effects. And this is the kind of psychology of inflation when it gets in our heads, and it leads to change. Changes in our consumer behaviour, our wage demands, and price and wage-setting expectations. Now, I think we and the Bank of England think that there will be limited second-round effects this time around, but certainly those first two bits: the fuel, the energy, the food prices via, in particular, the shock around fertilizer prices and potentially as we move forward, lower crop yields—that all will hurt the consumer for sure. Is it possible this could still be transitory enough to not force the Bank of England to hike rates? Or do we have to brace for a rise in the cost of borrowing? I think it is still possible. I don't think the BOE particularly wants to raise interest rates if it doesn't have to, given that, you know, we've got a weak jobs market, pretty sluggish growth, notwithstanding a good start to 2026, a broadly sluggish growth picture in the UK. So, I think if the BOE can avoid raising interest rates, it would probably prefer to do so. But that will need a fairly quick resolution in the Middle East and some normalisation in energy prices. Such that the BOE can have confidence that this is a transitory inflation shock and not something that ends up being much more long-lasting, like back in 2022. If they are forced into that hike, though, how much could that further weaken the economy? How worried should we be about jobs in particular? It doesn't help at all, does it? I mean, thinking about people who are refixing their mortgages, for example, there's a lot of households who fixed in 2021. We're looking forward to refixing onto not too bad a rate by the end of this year. And now we'll have to pay, you know, tens, if not hundreds, of pounds more per month as a consequence of if rates do go up, or even just of the expectations of higher interest rates. So, that hurts. Of course, it hurts businesses, anyone with exposure to floating rate debt. So, of course, it doesn't help, and the economy wasn't growing particularly rapidly anyway. And so interest rate rises, if they do happen (and it is still an if), will play into that. How resilient is the UK job market at the moment, do you think? Well, it's tough. I think, actually, it did have a decent start to the year. So when we spoke to recruiters, I think there was a lot of uncertainty around the budget. A lot of hiring decisions were put on hold. Pending the budget in November. But once that was out of the way, there was a window between the budget and the outbreak of conflict in the Middle East where things were looking up a bit. And we did see hiring start to pick up. Actually, the unemployment rate, of course, came down in February. And there were some positive signs. However, I suspect that the geopolitical news has done absolutely nothing good for the jobs market. What we've seen, I think, over the last couple of years, is the cost of labour, via both wages and taxation, has been a disincentive to hiring. And I suspect that adding in this new wave of cost rises via commodities will only make that harder for companies to increase. That was Liz Martins of HSBC. Don't forget you can watch more videos on Reuters.com."},"published_time":"2026-05-07T14:30:46Z","updated_time":"2026-05-07T14:30:47Z","thumbnail":{"url":"https://ajo.prod.reuters.tv/api/v2/img/69fca11be4b0ca1431e5cb90","caption":"The UK's dependence on imported gas makes it vulnerable to the recent hike in energy prices, but economist Liz Martins from HSBC told Reuters businesses have in some ways been surprisingly resilient thus far. She also said the Bank of England would much prefer not to hike rates, but that depends on oil supply quickly resuming. ","type":"image","resizer_url":"https://ajo.prod.reuters.tv/api/v2/img/69fca11be4b0ca1431e5cb90"},"source":{"hls":"https://ajo.prod.reuters.tv/v3/playlist/770160/master.m3u8"},"channels":[{"id":"Macro_Matters","name":"Macro Matters","regions":["US"]},{"id":"6ffc0233e09c26943b265ef3abd575b2d872818b","name":"Business","regions":["US"]}],"advert_info":{"advert_params":[{"key":"adfriendly","value":true}],"advert_zone":"/4735792/reuters.com/markets/stocks"},"meta_data":[{"key":"upstream-description","value":"The UK's dependence on imported gas makes it vulnerable to the recent hike in energy prices, but economist Liz Martins from HSBC told Reuters businesses have in some ways been surprisingly resilient thus far. She also said the Bank of England would much prefer not to hike rates, but that depends on oil supply quickly resuming. "},{"key":"copyright","value":"(c) 2026 Thomson Reuters, unless otherwise identified. Full statement available at https://www.thomsonreuters.com/en/policies/copyright.html"},{"key":"package-no-social","value":"Yes"},{"key":"hidden","value":"false"},{"key":"dateline","value":"Reuters, Reuters, MAY 07"},{"key":"package-restrictions","value":"For Reuters platforms only. . For Reuters customers only."},{"key":"package-mood","value":"Neutral"},{"key":"link","value":"tag:reuters.com,2026:newsml_RW856807052026RP1:4"},{"key":"upstream-channel-code","value":"vty454"},{"key":"upstream-title","value":"Macro Matters: 'Still possible' the Bank of England does not need to hike rates"},{"key":"external-asset-id","value":"285_RW856807052026RP1"},{"key":"lmp-feed","value":"lp"},{"key":"package-notes","value":"inflation, rates, Bank of England"},{"key":"publisher-name","value":"reuters.com"},{"key":"package-format","value":"Other"},{"key":"region","value":"Remote"},{"key":"byline","value":"London, UK"}],"usn":"RW856807052026RP1"},{"id":"RW627528042026RP1","type":"video","subtype":"application/x-mpegURL","external_id":"RW627528042026RP1","title":"Macro Matters: 'A lot depends on whether Powell decides to stay or go'","description":"The Federal Reserve is expected to keep rates on hold this week - but this could be Jerome Powell's last meeting, and the prospect of a more dovish changing of the guard has investors looking out for rate cuts towards the end of the year. Mark Fleming of First American told Reuters a lot depends not only on the war in Iran, but on whether Jerome Powell stays on the board. ","duration":216.46,"transcript_data":{"transcript":"The Fed is expected to look past higher prices for now, but for how long? This is Macro Matters, and we're talking about the Fed. This week's meeting could be Jerome Powell's last, After the Justice Department dropped a criminal probe into him last week and cleared the path for Senate approval for Kevin Warsh. The central bank is expected to hold steady, but the war in Iran makes the outlook very tricky to read. Mark Fleming is Chief Economist at First American. Mark, what will you be listening out for when we hear from Chair Powell? I think no one's going to be surprised about the expectation that there will be no rate cut this time around. But I think, yes, to your point, it's what happens over the course of the rest of the year. And that heavily depends on the energy crisis and inflation expectations in particular. Typically, You consider a spike in energy prices as being transitory, remember that from a few years ago, that inflation is one time and it moves on, But if it's persistent, then you get passer effects into other things like food and expectations begin to rise, And the Fed really worries about what people think inflation will be in the future and that would cause them to react. Well, bond markets are now expecting the Fed to sit tight until the middle of next year. But what do you think the chances are of a policy switch under the new chair? It's really interesting. There's a lot of moving parts or a lot of chairs involved here because, as Jerome Powell is likely now to step down from the chairman's position, That doesn't mean he has to actually leave the board at all. And his term actually ends in January of 2028. If he stays on the board, then essentially Warsh would have to take over Mirren's position. So you've got a proverbial dove taking over a dove's spot. Now, he would be the chairman, and he would be able to influence things more that way. That would be very different from. If Powell actually steps down and leaves the board altogether, then Warsh can step into Powell's seat, and therefore you have two doves on the board. So, I think a lot hinges on whether Powell chooses to stay or go. The bond market's still underestimating how bad the oil inflation shock could be, do you think, and the action the Fed might have to take? I think the long end of the yield curve, long-end Treasury bonds, have been relatively stable, I think, given the energy shock compared to past shocks. I think that's a pleasant surprise for housing economists, at least. But the short end has been more volatile. It's hard to say. I mean, it really does come down to, do you think this will be over soon or will persist? And that's a really hard thing to know. Well, potential home buyers have been waiting for further rate cuts for a while. What happens in the housing market if they just don't come? Yeah, don't bet on rate cuts anytime soon. Don't bet on lower mortgage rates anytime soon. But if you keep in mind that the rate where we are now, somewhere between six and six and a half, or more broadly between 6% and 7%, Which is likely where we will stay all year, that's a pretty normal mortgage rate. And so, I think people are getting more used to the idea. The other issues that are holding the market back are still so many homeowners who are locked in. That's more the issue than whether the rate comes down or not. Do you think, though, that higher prices will mean a lack of confidence in the economy from potential borrowers keeps the housing market stuck? Yeah, if you're worried about how much your gas is going to cost, whether there will be a recession because of an energy shock, You're not about to rush out and buy a home or rush out and sort of sell your existing home and buy a different home. So, sort of, confidence is also a very important factor. And that is sort of waning at the moment, and sort of slowing the market down as well. That was Mark Fleming of First American. Don't forget you can watch more videos on Reuters.com."},"published_time":"2026-04-28T15:15:08Z","updated_time":"2026-04-28T15:15:10Z","thumbnail":{"url":"https://ajo.prod.reuters.tv/api/v2/img/69f0ce1de4b0f15ddc8d0cfd","caption":"The Federal Reserve is expected to keep rates on hold this week - but this could be Jerome Powell's last meeting, and the prospect of a more dovish changing of the guard has investors looking out for rate cuts towards the end of the year. Mark Fleming of First American told Reuters a lot depends not only on the war in Iran, but on whether Jerome Powell stays on the board. ","type":"image","resizer_url":"https://ajo.prod.reuters.tv/api/v2/img/69f0ce1de4b0f15ddc8d0cfd"},"source":{"hls":"https://ajo.prod.reuters.tv/v3/playlist/767240/master.m3u8"},"channels":[{"id":"Macro_Matters","name":"Macro Matters","regions":["US"]},{"id":"HPUS","name":"RCOM Homepage US","regions":["US"]},{"id":"6ffc0233e09c26943b265ef3abd575b2d872818b","name":"Business","regions":["US"]}],"advert_info":{"advert_params":[{"key":"adfriendly","value":true}],"advert_zone":"/4735792/reuters.com/markets/stocks"},"meta_data":[{"key":"upstream-description","value":"The Federal Reserve is expected to keep rates on hold this week - but this could be Jerome Powell's last meeting, and the prospect of a more dovish changing of the guard has investors looking out for rate cuts towards the end of the year. Mark Fleming of First American told Reuters a lot depends not only on the war in Iran, but on whether Jerome Powell stays on the board. "},{"key":"copyright","value":"(c) 2026 Thomson Reuters, unless otherwise identified. Full statement available at https://www.thomsonreuters.com/en/policies/copyright.html"},{"key":"package-no-social","value":"Yes"},{"key":"hidden","value":"false"},{"key":"dateline","value":"Reuters, Reuters, APR 28"},{"key":"package-restrictions","value":"For Reuters platforms only. . For Reuters customers only."},{"key":"package-mood","value":"Neutral"},{"key":"link","value":"tag:reuters.com,2026:newsml_RW627528042026RP1:4"},{"key":"upstream-channel-code","value":"vty454"},{"key":"upstream-title","value":"Macro Matters: 'A lot depends on whether Powell decides to stay or go'"},{"key":"external-asset-id","value":"285_RW627528042026RP1"},{"key":"lmp-feed","value":"lp"},{"key":"package-notes","value":"inflation, Federal Reserve"},{"key":"publisher-name","value":"reuters.com"},{"key":"package-format","value":"Other"},{"key":"region","value":"Remote"},{"key":"byline","value":"London, UK"}],"usn":"RW627528042026RP1"},{"id":"RW492823042026RP1","type":"video","subtype":"application/x-mpegURL","external_id":"RW492823042026RP1","title":"Macro Matters: Stagflation 'likely in Europe until three months after the war ends'","description":"The European Commission says the war in Iran has added a 24 billion euros to the EU's collective fuel import bills in its first 50 days. Holger Schemieding of Berenberg told Reuters stagflation will persist on the continent until three months after the Strait of Hormuz can be opened. ","duration":329.93,"transcript_data":{"transcript":"The EU aims to ease the energy crunch with lower electricity taxes and coordinated gas storage, but will it be enough? Macro matters, and we're talking about the energy crisis in Europe. On Wednesday the European Union set out plans to ensure electricity is taxed less than gas and to coordinate the summer refill of countries gas storage but it's stepped back for now from major market interventions like capping gas prices or taxing energy companies windfall profits. The continent remains very reliant on natural gas, which hasn't yet jumped nearly as high as it did after Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022. But the European Commission says the disruption has added 24 billion euros to the bloc's collective fuel import bill in the first 50 days of the war, and worse could be to come. Holger Schmeiding is Chief Economist at Berenberg. Holger, have the EU and member governments taken enough action to curb the blow from energy prices, or are they being complacent? I do not think that they are being complacent. At least so far, this shock is much smaller than the shock of 2022. So what the EU is doing, it is giving recommendations. It is trying to coordinate the refilling of gas storage facilities, which is good. But this is not yet such a disruption that heavy market interventions are really needed. And indeed, on the national level, it's probably better to have national decisions on how to subsidize consumers, if need be, rather. Than try a pan-European approach. Well, on the national level, 22 out of 27 EU countries have already introduced some kind of protective measure for consumers, from petrol tax cuts to price caps. But can they afford it? Well, by and large, they probably can. Of course, some countries are struggling fiscally, but the fairly modest relief packages that we have seen so far are probably doable in the sense that they should not, and have not yet, upset bond markets very much. In this count, the European Central Bank is absolutely right. As long as these measures are temporary, they probably should not pose a major long-term fiscal problem. Of course, if the Iran war were to escalate badly, then we would have to think hard in Europe about how to make the support, which would then have to be more targeted, affordable. Are we seeing evidence this is accelerating the transition to green energy, or are governments focused on finding more energy from any source? We are currently not seeing clear evidence that this is accelerating the transition to green energies, but it will probably be the case. In Germany, for instance, we are having a discussion to make our energy policy more rational by focusing more on storage facilities for surplus energy when the sun is shining and the wind is blowing, and by focusing more on building out the grid. And indeed, the current shock is giving a new impetus to these discussions. I think one or two years from now, we will look back at it and say, yes, it did accelerate the transition, but so far it's mostly in discussions rather than in actual data, with the small exception that the sale of electric vehicles seems to be surging in recent weeks. We saw today that Eurozone business activity contracted in April as input costs have rocketed, with no signs yet of the Strait of Hormuz opening. How much of a bite do you expect this will take from Europe's economic growth? Well, before the crisis, we had a forecast of 1.3% growth in the Eurozone for this year. We are now at 0.8% under the assumption that the worst of the war will be over soon. In a bad-case scenario, say if the Strait of Hormuz is closed throughout the summer, we might be lucky to have just 0.5% of Eurozone growth this year. So this is indeed a significant hit to the growth outlook for this year. To summarize it, we will likely have, in continental Europe, stacked inflation until roughly three months after the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. So, if that reopening happens in May, then by sometime in the summer, we should be getting. Back to growth, but until then, it's stagflation, and that is exactly the message which we got today from the Purchasing Managers' Indices. Well, markets are now pricing in that the ECB may be forced to hike rates as many as four times this year, starting in June. Is that likely? That is very unlikely. First, I do think that the Strait of Hormuz will reopen at some time in coming months. Why? Both Iran and the US need it to reopen. Iran needs the revenues, and Trump needs relief for petrol prices at home. And B, if the Strait of Hormuz stays closed, yes, we will have a bigger inflation shock, but we also would have significantly lower economic growth. If we were to have much growth at all. And in my view, the dampener to aggregate demand from high prices, from the negative confidence effect of the war, would contain inflation risks—that is, the risks of a long-run rise in inflation—by enough so that ECB rate hikes would not be needed. Four ECB rate hikes this year might be a recipe for recession next year, and that, in my view, is something we really should try to avoid. That was Holger Schmeiding of Barenburg. Don't forget, you can watch more videos on Reuters.com."},"published_time":"2026-04-23T13:47:14Z","updated_time":"2026-04-23T13:47:15Z","thumbnail":{"url":"https://ajo.prod.reuters.tv/api/v2/img/69ea21b6e4b0b5d149f910e9","caption":"The European Commission says the war in Iran has added a 24 billion euros to the EU's collective fuel import bills in its first 50 days. Holger Schemieding of Berenberg told Reuters stagflation will persist on the continent until three months after the Strait of Hormuz can be opened. ","type":"image","resizer_url":"https://ajo.prod.reuters.tv/api/v2/img/69ea21b6e4b0b5d149f910e9"},"source":{"hls":"https://ajo.prod.reuters.tv/v3/playlist/765256/master.m3u8"},"channels":[{"id":"Macro_Matters","name":"Macro Matters","regions":["US"]},{"id":"HPUS","name":"RCOM Homepage US","regions":["US"]},{"id":"6ffc0233e09c26943b265ef3abd575b2d872818b","name":"Business","regions":["US"]}],"advert_info":{"advert_params":[{"key":"adfriendly","value":true}],"advert_zone":"/4735792/reuters.com/markets/stocks"},"meta_data":[{"key":"upstream-description","value":"The European Commission says the war in Iran has added a 24 billion euros to the EU's collective fuel import bills in its first 50 days. Holger Schemieding of Berenberg told Reuters stagflation will persist on the continent until three months after the Strait of Hormuz can be opened. "},{"key":"copyright","value":"(c) 2026 Thomson Reuters, unless otherwise identified. Full statement available at https://www.thomsonreuters.com/en/policies/copyright.html"},{"key":"package-no-social","value":"Yes"},{"key":"hidden","value":"false"},{"key":"dateline","value":"Reuters, Reuters, APR 23"},{"key":"package-restrictions","value":"For Reuters platforms only. . For Reuters customers only."},{"key":"package-mood","value":"Neutral"},{"key":"link","value":"tag:reuters.com,2026:newsml_RW492823042026RP1:4"},{"key":"upstream-channel-code","value":"vty454"},{"key":"upstream-title","value":"Macro Matters: Stagflation 'likely in Europe until three months after the war ends'"},{"key":"external-asset-id","value":"285_RW492823042026RP1"},{"key":"lmp-feed","value":"lp"},{"key":"package-notes","value":"Iran, oil, inflation, European Central Bank"},{"key":"publisher-name","value":"reuters.com"},{"key":"package-format","value":"Other"},{"key":"region","value":"Remote"},{"key":"byline","value":"London, UK"}],"usn":"RW492823042026RP1"},{"id":"RW431621042026RP1","type":"video","subtype":"application/x-mpegURL","external_id":"RW431621042026RP1","title":"Macro Matters: Fed Chair Powell 'has no inclination to step aside'","description":"President Trump's nominee for Federal Reserve chair, Kevin Warsh, faced a grilling on Tuesday from the Senate Banking Committee, but his nomination could be held up as the President has made it clear he has no plans to drop the criminal probe into outgoing chair Jerome Powell. James Knightley of ING told Reuters Powell plans to stay in the job if Warsh can't be confirmed by the May 15th deadline, which could raise tensions between the Fed and the White House even further. ","duration":375.06,"transcript_data":{"transcript":"It's crunch time for President Trump's Fed nominee, Kevin Warsh, as he faces the Senate Banking Committee. This is Macro Matters, and we're talking about the Fed. Fed Chair nominee Kevin Warsh is being quizzed by Senators this Tuesday, who will have concerns to raise about just how independent he will be from the Presidency. The timeline for his confirmation is extremely tight, with outgoing Chair Jerome Powell's term expiring on the 15th of May, but the confirmation process may not be quick. James Knightley is Chief US Economist at ING. James, President Trump has made it clear, of course, that he wants lower interest rates. Senators will want to know if Warsh... Is prepared to stand up to him, even if those can't be delivered this year. How concerned is the market about his credibility? Yeah, I think, as the incoming Fed Chair, credibility is central to the case for this. So, yep, he has to navigate quite a few tricky situations because, of course, when he was... There in his first term. He was viewed as one of the more hawkish members. So, I think the Senate will be looking to try and find the rationale for why he has switched to being much more aligned with President Trump and is thinking that interest rates need to be lower. But, as you say, it's also about what the vision is that he has for the Fed. And, certainly, the comments we got yesterday that were leaked by him, perhaps, did suggest that he thinks that the Fed needs are back to basics. Back to basics message, really. It needs to focus, really, on its core mandate of maintaining price stability and maximizing employment. How much harder has the war in Iran made Warsh's possession? Yeah, it's not easy, you know, trying to advocate for lower interest rates when you've got a situation where inflation has been above target for the last five years consistently, and higher motor fuel costs are pushing inflation perhaps above 4% in the very near term. So, that is going to be tricky. So I think Scott Besson, the Treasury Secretary, has given him a bit of leeway here, saying that he would understand it if the Fed does delay rate cuts. But certainly, I think in time, the messaging will be that. Kevin Warsh does believe that lower interest rates are achievable and are in the best interests for the U.S. economy. He also believes that AI will create a productivity boom that creates growth without inflation, that could even be disinflationary. Is that credible? Yeah, I think there's a range of views on this. He is clearly a very strong advocate for the investment in technology, the investment in AI. He thinks this is going to be revolutionary. He thinks it can deliver real change that will raise productivity in the U.S. economy and deliver stronger growth without inflation. And therefore, in his view, the neutral rate of interest is actually going to be lower than what we've had in the last decade or so. That is the rationale for lower interest rates. While I think the Federal Reserve, in general, buys into that narrative, there are degrees of how far that can come through so quickly. And I think, as a result, we've got to remember that the Federal Reserve is not one person deciding interest rates. It's a committee of 12. And from that perspective, he's still going to have a lot of work to do to convince the rest of the Fed that swift, aggressive, near-term interest rate cuts are justifiable. Now, Warsh also blames the size of the Fed's balance sheet, at least partly, for the level of inflation in recent years. But what would significant bond sales from the Fed mean across the wider economy? I think this is a really interesting point. He's made the case that he thinks that the Fed's balance sheet is too big. And if the Fed starts to run down its balance sheet, that's effectively a tightening of monetary policy conditions. And that can be offset by lower interest rates at the short end of the Fed Funds rate. So, that's another reason why he thinks the Fed can be in a position to cut interest rates. But again, we come back to the broader issues. And Scott Besant is the treasury secretary. Scott Besant's made the claim that... The 10-year yield is the most important borrowing cost in America because of its implications for corporates and also households, as well as government borrowing costs as well. Now, the risk would be that if we see a dramatic reduction of the Fed's balance sheet in an environment where the government is borrowing more than 6 percent of GDP each year, for. Perhaps ever more, that that was going to put more pressure on U.S. domestic investors to step up and lend money to the U.S. government. Are they going to continue wanting to do that at low borrowing costs? They may want a bit more reward for the risk that they are running. And so, if you've got fewer buyers, the Fed not being in the market for Treasuries and actually selling them, that could put upward pressure on those longer-dated borrowing costs in America. And that could be a big headwind for U.S. growth. This confirmation timeline is very tight, isn't it, James? At least one Senator, Tom Tillis, has vowed to block it until the criminal probe into Chair Powell is ended, which, at the moment, President Trump says his Justice Department is pushing ahead with. So what if Powell stays in post beyond the 15th of May? Yeah, well, he has got that room to do so because, of course, while his term as Chair notionally ends on the 15th of May—that's a week on Friday—we've got to remember that his term as a Gover nor on the Fed Board doesn't expire until the 31st of January, 2028. And the Fed has already made it clear that, internally, they decided that if Kevin Warsh is not approved in time, Jerome Powell will stay on. And that just runs the risk of more inflamed tensions between the Fed and the President, who, of course, is still... Gunning for the Fed Chair, you know, the Department for Justice investigation into the overrun on the Fed rebuild plans is still there or thereabouts. So, this could last many more weeks, possibly even months. And Jerome Powell could remain on the board, couldn't he, until the official end of his term as a board member, which isn't, I don't think, until 2028. What then? That's right. That's right. So, we could see the situation where Jerome Powell just says, \"I'll just stick around.\" I want to clear my name. I want to clear the Fed's name as well. So, right now, there doesn't seem to be any inclination from him to just step aside and allow the President to revamp the Fed in his own mindset. So, it's going to create some more confrontation, shall we say, between the Fed and the President. That was James Knightley of ING. Don't forget, you can watch more videos on Reuters.com."},"published_time":"2026-04-21T13:57:53Z","updated_time":"2026-04-21T13:57:55Z","thumbnail":{"url":"https://ajo.prod.reuters.tv/api/v2/img/69e78111e4b0b5d149f904ea","caption":"President Trump's nominee for Federal Reserve chair, Kevin Warsh, faced a grilling on Tuesday from the Senate Banking Committee, but his nomination could be held up as the President has made it clear he has no plans to drop the criminal probe into outgoing chair Jerome Powell. James Knightley of ING told Reuters Powell plans to stay in the job if Warsh can't be confirmed by the May 15th deadline, which could raise tensions between the Fed and the White House even further. ","type":"image","resizer_url":"https://ajo.prod.reuters.tv/api/v2/img/69e78111e4b0b5d149f904ea"},"source":{"hls":"https://ajo.prod.reuters.tv/v3/playlist/765018/master.m3u8"},"channels":[{"id":"Macro_Matters","name":"Macro Matters","regions":["US"]},{"id":"HPUS","name":"RCOM Homepage US","regions":["US"]},{"id":"13978","name":"US News","regions":["US"]},{"id":"6ffc0233e09c26943b265ef3abd575b2d872818b","name":"Business","regions":["US"]}],"advert_info":{"advert_params":[{"key":"adfriendly","value":true}],"advert_zone":"/4735792/reuters.com/markets/stocks"},"meta_data":[{"key":"upstream-description","value":"President Trump's nominee for Federal Reserve chair, Kevin Warsh, faced a grilling on Tuesday from the Senate Banking Committee, but his nomination could be held up as the President has made it clear he has no plans to drop the criminal probe into outgoing chair Jerome Powell. James Knightley of ING told Reuters Powell plans to stay in the job if Warsh can't be confirmed by the May 15th deadline, which could raise tensions between the Fed and the White House even further. "},{"key":"copyright","value":"(c) 2026 Thomson Reuters, unless otherwise identified. Full statement available at https://www.thomsonreuters.com/en/policies/copyright.html"},{"key":"package-no-social","value":"Yes"},{"key":"hidden","value":"false"},{"key":"dateline","value":"Reuters, Reuters, APR 21"},{"key":"package-restrictions","value":"For Reuters platforms only.. 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George Buckley from Nomura told Reuters the goal must be to prevent the energy price shock from spiralling into a fiscal crisis - which could ultimately drive interest rates even higher. ","duration":356.2,"transcript_data":{"transcript":"'Europe's economy is under siege. Will the ECB hold the line, or are the walls starting to crack? This is Macro Matters, and we're talking about Europe.' 'The IMF started the week with a sobering message. 'Global growth is slowing, and the risk of recession is rising.' Europe is feeling the brunt of it, prompting caution from ECB President Christine Lagarde. She acknowledged the challenge of ignoring the energy shock but stopped short of signalling a rate hike. So, with the next policy decision just two weeks away, is ECB's next move a guessing game? Well, let's ask George Buckley, Chief European Economist at Nomura. So, George, another hit to growth forecast. The IMF now sees Germany expanding by 0.8% this year. Is there any real hope left for Eurozone momentum?' 'Well, I think central banks have a really difficult balancing act to juggle here. First of all, you've got the inflationary impact of higher energy prices. We've seen, not that long ago, what that meant for inflation back in 2022 and 2023, when inflation surged. This time could be different. And the reason for that is because we've got a weaker labor market. Interest rates are already higher. And when you look at, for example, where they are in the UK and Europe, they're probably around neutral in Europe. They are above neutral, so restrictive territory in the UK. So, for all of those reasons, I think central banks need to be very cautious about what they do. It's not obvious that they need to raise interest rates, particularly if, as your question alluded to, you see some weaker. Economic growth forecasts and see that pulling down on inflation almost eventually. It might not do it right now, but it might do in some years' time.' ECB's Nagel... should still be on the table at the next meeting. Do you think that's a real possibility, and what's your outlook for the rest of the year?' 'I think it is a possibility. Whether it's the right thing is questionable. And the reason for that is because we don't have a great deal of information at the moment. We have some evidence to show that economic growth and sentiment are weakened. We have some evidence to suggest that price inflation is going to be higher. But the real important question, and what will govern the ECB and other central banks' decisions, is whether this inflation shock, this price shock, this energy price shock will morph into something which is more of a persistent inflation shock and something which might influence wages and maybe even cause a wage-price spiral. I'm not sure that that's what's going to happen, but central banks will be very keen to look at any evidence on things like inflation expectations, on prices of other goods or the goods and services to give some sense of if it's seeping into second-round effects. Because if it is, that's something that they need to respond to. If it's not, and it's an economic growth hit, Which is the primary problem? Then they might not need to raise interest rates.' 'The IMF is warning Europe against loosening its fiscal rules, even as Italy pushes to suspend deficit limits. So, how critical is it for the EU to hold the line on fiscal discipline right now?' 'The European Commission thinks it is very important. One thing it has said to a number of countries is that it's important that this energy crisis shock does not morph into a fiscal shock as well. And so, I think it's going to be important for countries to be very aware of their fiscal limits. Some of those limits are against the buffers, much closer to the buffers than others. So take France, for example, where the budget deficits are very high. If they don't do anything to address those, then debt-to-GDP ratios will be rising even further. But other countries, like Germany, do have a bit more fiscal space, and they're using that fiscal space. To spend on things like defense and infrastructure, whether they have even more space to spend on day-to-day issues like supporting households and firms through this energy shock, is debatable. But I think it's going to be important for countries, especially those where fiscal buffers are tighter, to be very wary of that and to not cause higher spending because, of course, that can then lead to higher interest rates. So it's important that there's no knock-on effects from that.' 'Well, some traders are snapping up European government bonds after a sharp sell-off. Is this an opportunity to invest in Europe against the prevailing narrative?' 'I think there are a lot of risks. And some of the fiscal risks are very clear, both in the UK and across Europe. I think people need to be very wary of that. And of course, if we do see fiscal balances weakening because of what's happening in Iran and the U.S., then markets do have a habit of punishing countries which are not as fiscally responsible as others?' 'It's finished on an optimistic note, George. And Hungary's new PM says it's time to fully embrace the EU and adopt the euro. But could this actually give the European economy a meaningful boost?' 'I think it's definitely gonna be helpful at the margin. Uh, we've, we've heard from, uh, Ursula von der Leyen. She's been, she, she was very quick off the blocks to say that, uh, she's very happy about the, um, about the new Prime Minister. Um, and also, uh, there's a delegation going to Hungary to try and work out how to release about €30 billion of funds, uh, for Hungary, which would be. In response to Hungary reestablishing fully the rule of law, and if that was the case, then, uh, you know, both sides are going to get a lot out of it. Hungary will get some of the funds that it's been due. Uh, the European Union will get an ally, uh, which is going to be much easier to work with than Hungary under Viktor Orban. So, I think this is a win-win situation for both sides.' 'That was George Buckley from Nomura. Don't forget, you can watch more videos on Reuters.com'"},"published_time":"2026-04-16T14:54:44Z","updated_time":"2026-04-16T14:54:44Z","thumbnail":{"url":"https://ajo.prod.reuters.tv/api/v2/img/69e0f72fe4b0dad542b3f1b7","caption":"The IMF has cautioned the EU against easing fiscal rules in response to the energy crisis, warning that rising debt and volatile bond markets make this a risky move. George Buckley from Nomura told Reuters the goal must be to prevent the energy price shock from spiralling into a fiscal crisis - which could ultimately drive interest rates even higher. ","type":"image","resizer_url":"https://ajo.prod.reuters.tv/api/v2/img/69e0f72fe4b0dad542b3f1b7"},"source":{"hls":"https://ajo.prod.reuters.tv/v3/playlist/763683/master.m3u8"},"channels":[{"id":"Macro_Matters","name":"Macro Matters","regions":["US"]},{"id":"Markets","name":"Markets","regions":["US"]},{"id":"HPUS","name":"RCOM Homepage US","regions":["US"]},{"id":"6ffc0233e09c26943b265ef3abd575b2d872818b","name":"Business","regions":["US"]}],"advert_info":{"advert_params":[{"key":"adfriendly","value":true}],"advert_zone":"/4735792/reuters.com/markets/stocks"},"meta_data":[{"key":"upstream-description","value":"The IMF has cautioned the EU against easing fiscal rules in response to the energy crisis, warning that rising debt and volatile bond markets make this a risky move. 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For Reuters customers only."},{"key":"package-mood","value":"Neutral"},{"key":"link","value":"tag:reuters.com,2026:newsml_RW308316042026RP1:4"},{"key":"upstream-channel-code","value":"vty454"},{"key":"upstream-title","value":"Macro Matters: Markets ‘punish’ fiscally irresponsible countries"},{"key":"external-asset-id","value":"285_RW308316042026RP1"},{"key":"lmp-feed","value":"lp"},{"key":"package-notes","value":"IMF, Hungary, Inflation, Recession, ECB, Interest Rates, Bunds, Lagarde, Euro, Fiscal, Hike, Growth"},{"key":"publisher-name","value":"reuters.com"},{"key":"package-format","value":"Other"},{"key":"region","value":"Remote"},{"key":"byline","value":"London, UK"}],"usn":"RW308316042026RP1"},{"id":"RW245814042026RP1","type":"video","subtype":"application/x-mpegURL","external_id":"RW245814042026RP1","title":"Macro Matters: Rate repricing 'a big challenge' for UK housing market","description":"The IMF said on Tuesday that the UK would suffer the sharpest growth downgrade and joint highest inflation rate in the G7 this year, due to the war in Iran. Economist James Smith of ING told Reuters he doesn't expect the inflation impact to be much worse than in the eurozone, but higher rates could hit mortgage borrowers hard. ","duration":208.03,"transcript_data":{"transcript":"'Surging fuel prices are weighing on the British economy, but how bad could the damage be? This is Macro Matters, and we're talking about the impact of the Iran war on the UK.' Higher fuel prices are already forcing consumers to cut their spending and ditch travel plans. According to data out this Tuesday, one in seven Brits surveyed by Barclays said uncertainty around the war had made them delay a big purchase, while spending on travel is down for the first time in five years. James Smith is a Developed Markets Economist at ING. James, the extra cost of fuel, then, is already having a direct impact on UK consumers and businesses?' 'Yeah, I guess so. And, you know, there's more to come because one of the things in the UK is the impact on electricity and gas prices. So, household and energy bills, that's not going to come through till July. So, you know, we are seeing the impacts, as you say, on petrol prices, on diesel prices. But a lot of this is still to come through. And yeah, it's going to be a major headwind for consumers.' 'Why is the UK so much worse affected than some other comparable countries?' 'I don't know that it is, to be honest. I think that's something you do hear quite a lot, that the UK is more exposed to the energy crisis. And we've seen a more extreme repricing in Bank of England expectations over the last few weeks. But we've got to remember, this is an oil crisis fundamentally at the moment, but less so natural gas. Natural gas prices have risen. But in relative terms, they're nowhere near where we were in the aftermath of the Ukraine invasion four years ago. And that's going to keep more of a lid on electricity prices. As a country, we're very exposed on natural gas. We use natural gas more intensively than other economies. But I think at this stage, given where we are with energy prices, actually, the UK inflation profile looks pretty similar to the rest of Europe.' 'As you said, though, we have seen a steep repricing of expectations from the Bank of England, and so a rise in the cost of borrowing for businesses and households. What does that mean for the wider economy?' 'Yeah, I mean, it's a major challenge. And the big question at this stage is whether the Bank of England does deliver those rate hikes. Markets have been flirting with, say, two hikes this year. That's a big turnaround from the cuts that were priced pre-Iran war. And that's a big challenge for businesses, but also the housing market as well. This is a real peak for household refinancing. Five years ago, there was a big bump in household housing market activity, and there's a lot of refinancing happening now. So, that's going to have a very tangible impact.' 'So, what consequences are you expecting for the housing market?' 'Well, let's see. I mean, it's obviously a very key part-time of the year for the housing market going into the spring. But, you know, the feed-through to existing mortgage holders is very slow. Most people are on fixed-rate mortgages. So the full effect is going to take time. We saw this back in 2022 when interest rates went up. And as I say, Does the Bank of England actually deliver on rate hikes? I personally think, at the current level of energy prices, they might not. My base case, for the time being at least, is that they flatline rates this year. That could change if energy prices rise. Then that maybe gives the housing market a bit of a reprieve.' 'If we do see that hike, though, could that be quite damaging if we're seeing a wider economic softening already?' 'It's a very difficult decision for the Bank of England to make here, but last year we saw big tax rises and big minimum wage increases, and the response to that was more job losses, and not more inflation. So, that could be the playbook here. So yeah, potentially, we see more unemployment over the next few weeks, over the next few months, and that makes the decision quite complicated for the bank.' 'That was James Smith of ING. Don't forget, you can watch more videos on Reuters.com'"},"published_time":"2026-04-14T13:45:02Z","updated_time":"2026-04-14T13:45:03Z","thumbnail":{"url":"https://ajo.prod.reuters.tv/api/v2/img/69de4415e4b0d6de9c4a1968","caption":"The IMF said on Tuesday that the UK would suffer the sharpest growth downgrade and joint highest inflation rate in the G7 this year, due to the war in Iran. Economist James Smith of ING told Reuters he doesn't expect the inflation impact to be much worse than in the eurozone, but higher rates could hit mortgage borrowers hard. ","type":"image","resizer_url":"https://ajo.prod.reuters.tv/api/v2/img/69de4415e4b0d6de9c4a1968"},"source":{"hls":"https://ajo.prod.reuters.tv/v3/playlist/763404/master.m3u8"},"channels":[{"id":"Macro_Matters","name":"Macro Matters","regions":["US"]},{"id":"Markets","name":"Markets","regions":["US"]},{"id":"HPUS","name":"RCOM Homepage US","regions":["US"]},{"id":"6ffc0233e09c26943b265ef3abd575b2d872818b","name":"Business","regions":["US"]}],"advert_info":{"advert_params":[{"key":"adfriendly","value":true}],"advert_zone":"/4735792/reuters.com/markets/stocks"},"meta_data":[{"key":"upstream-description","value":"The IMF said on Tuesday that the UK would suffer the sharpest growth downgrade and joint highest inflation rate in the G7 this year, due to the war in Iran. 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