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White House top economist doesn't expect more rate hikes this year after September jobs miss

Published by Yahoo Finance on October 2, 2026.

Yahoo Finance's interview with Chris Phelan, chair of the President's Council of Economic Advisers, including his calculation of about 40,000 jobs a month.

The cited passage, with surrounding source text

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level-loud ticker-name yf-18gyie4" data-ylk="elm:qte;elmt:link;itc:0;sec:mrkt-sum;slk:%5ETNX;subsec:US%20Markets;source:mrkt-sum%20US%20Markets" data-yga="{"yLinkElement":"qte","yLinkElementType":"link","yModuleName":"mrkt-sum","yLinkText":"^TNX","ySubModuleName":"US Markets","yTrafficOrigin":"mrkt-sum US Markets"}" data-testid="ticker-symbol-link" href="/quote/%5ETNX/"> <span class="text neo-font-label-sm-emphasis yf-18d6y07" style="text-decoration: none; font-style: normal; text-transform: none; text-align: inherit; font-variant-numeric: normal;">10-Yr Bond </span> </a> <div class="price-row yf-1o9ayn7"><fin-streamer key="price" class="last-price yf-1o9ayn7" data-symbol="^TNX" data-field="regularMarketPrice" data-trend="none" data-pricehint="2" data-value="5.311" active>5.31</fin-streamer> <div class="percent-price-change txt-positive yf-1o9ayn7"><fin-streamer class="price-change txt-positive yf-1o9ayn7" data-symbol="^TNX" data-field="regularMarketChange" data-trend="txt" 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yf-1o9ayn7"><div class="ticker-item valid-quote" data-testid="ticker-list-item"><div class="row yf-1o9ayn7"><div class="ticker-info yf-1o9ayn7"> <a class="hyperlink variant-default level-loud ticker-name yf-18gyie4" data-ylk="elm:qte;elmt:link;itc:0;sec:mrkt-sum;slk:CL%3DF;subsec:US%20Markets;source:mrkt-sum%20US%20Markets" data-yga="{"yLinkElement":"qte","yLinkElementType":"link","yModuleName":"mrkt-sum","yLinkText":"CL=F","ySubModuleName":"US Markets","yTrafficOrigin":"mrkt-sum US Markets"}" data-testid="ticker-symbol-link" href="/quote/CL%3DF/"> <span class="text neo-font-label-sm-emphasis yf-18d6y07" style="text-decoration: none; font-style: normal; text-transform: none; text-align: inherit; font-variant-numeric: normal;">Crude Oil Nov 26 </span> </a> <div class="price-row yf-1o9ayn7"><fin-streamer key="price" class="last-price yf-1o9ayn7" data-symbol="CL=F" data-field="regularMarketPrice" data-trend="none" data-pricehint="2" data-value="89.27" active>89.27</fin-streamer> <div 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alt="Jennifer Schonberger" loading="eager" class="byline-attr-logo-img yf-z1ictt"> </a></div> <div><div class="byline-attr-author yf-z1ictt"> <a class="primary-link fin-size-large noUnderline yf-119g04z" data-ylk="elm:author;elmt:link;itc:0;source:content-canvas%20default;slk:Jennifer%20Schonberger;sec:content-canvas" data-yga="{"yLinkElement":"author","yLinkElementType":"link","yTrafficOrigin":"content-canvas default","yLinkText":"Jennifer Schonberger","yModuleName":"content-canvas"}" href="/author/jennifer-schonberger" target="_self">Jennifer Schonberger </a> <span class="byline-attr-meta-separator yf-z1ictt" data-svelte-h="svelte-1yy7aps">·</span> Senior Reporter</div> <div class="byline-attr-time-style"> <time class="byline-attr-meta-time" datetime="2026-10-02T16:59:16+00:00" data-timestamp="2026-10-02T16:59:16+00:00">Fri, October 2, 2026 at 12:59 PM EDT</time> </div></div></div> <div class="byline-share yf-z1ictt"><div><span class="share-dialog yf-uc2fyh"><div class="menuContainer 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</div> </button></div> <div class="byline-comments-mobile yf-z1ictt"> <button class="icon2-btn fin-size-medium view-cmts-button rounded highlightWhenExpanded yf-7mptsx" data-ylk="elm:cmmt_open;elmt:cmnt;itc:1;slk:comments;sec:content-canvas;subsec:ycp" data-yga="{"yLinkElement":"cmmt_open","yLinkElementType":"cmnt","yLinkText":"comments","yModuleName":"content-canvas","ySubModuleName":"ycp","yTrafficOrigin":"content-canvas ycp"}" title="Comment" aria-label="Comment"><div aria-hidden="true" class="icon fin-icon inherit-icn sz-large yf-15ilbqr"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" viewBox="0 0 24 24"><path d="M21.99 4c0-1.1-.89-2-1.99-2H4c-1.1 0-2 .9-2 2v12c0 1.1.9 2 2 2h14l4 4zM20 4v13.17L18.83 16H4V4zM6 12h12v2H6zm0-3h12v2H6zm0-3h12v2H6z"/></svg> </div> </button></div></div> </div> <div class="body-wrap yf-1qcy35b"> <div class="body yf-v6n2s3" data-testid="article-body"> <div class="bodyItems-wrapper"> <p class="text text-block paragraph text-left neo-font-paragraph-xl-reg yf-18d6y07" style="text-decoration: none; font-style: normal; text-transform: none; text-align: inherit; font-variant-numeric: normal;">Chris Phelan, chair of the President's Council of Economic Advisers, doesn't expect the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates again following Friday's employment report and this week's cooler inflation data. </p> <p class="text text-block paragraph text-left neo-font-paragraph-xl-reg yf-18d6y07" style="text-decoration: none; font-style: normal; text-transform: none; text-align: inherit; font-variant-numeric: normal;">Phelan pointed to a <a href="https://finance.yahoo.com/economy/article/septembers-jobs-report-shows-the-us-added-just-29000-jobs-and-unemployment-ticked-up-195320409.html" data-ylk="slk:subdued%20reading%20on%20the%20job%20market;elm:context_link;itc:0;sec:content-canvas;cpos:1;pos:1;_E:mb_qualified_link;ct:story;outcm:mb_qualified_link;source:content-canvas%20default" data-yga="{"yLinkText":"subdued reading on the job market","yLinkElement":"context_link","yModuleName":"content-canvas","yLinkPosition":"1","yPosition":"1","yContentType":"story","yTrafficOrigin":"content-canvas default"}" target="_blank" class="link">subdued reading on the job market</a> from September, coupled with comments this week from two Fed officials that <a href="https://finance.yahoo.com/economy/policy/article/feds-vice-chair-warns-inflation-remains-high-but-fed-needs-time-to-assess-rates-181738105.html" data-ylk="slk:tamped%20down%20expectations%20for%20an%20October%20rate%20hike;elm:context_link;itc:0;sec:content-canvas;cpos:2;pos:1;_E:mb_qualified_link;ct:story;outcm:mb_qualified_link;source:content-canvas%20default" data-yga="{"yLinkText":"tamped down expectations for an October rate hike","yLinkElement":"context_link","yModuleName":"content-canvas","yLinkPosition":"2","yPosition":"1","yContentType":"story","yTrafficOrigin":"content-canvas default"}" target="_blank" class="link">tamped down expectations for an October rate hike</a>. </p> <div data-testid="lazym-digDeeper"></div> <div class="skeleton-container yf-v8t7ni"><div class="loader text false animate yf-11goxt7" data-testid="skeleton-loader"></div><div class="loader text false animate yf-11goxt7" data-testid="skeleton-loader"></div><div class="loader text false animate yf-11goxt7" data-testid="skeleton-loader"></div></div> <div class="wrapper yf-2smqn1" data-testid="inarticle-ad"> <div id="sda-INARTICLE-57abc9ad-59de-43ed-831a-02b5dd31a336-1" class="sdaContainer dv-all sda-INARTICLE-57abc9ad-59de-43ed-831a-02b5dd31a336-1 yf-d5hqm1 overflow margin visible placeholder" data-testid="ad-container" data-ad-unit="/22888152279/us/yfin/ros/dt/us_yfin_ros_dt_mid_center" data-ad-size="970x250,728x90,970x90,300x250,fluid" data-ad-region="main-dynamic" data-ad-loc="mid_center" style="--placeholder-height: 250px;"> </div></div> <p class="text text-block paragraph text-left neo-font-paragraph-xl-reg yf-18d6y07" style="text-decoration: none; font-style: normal; text-transform: none; text-align: inherit; font-variant-numeric: normal;">"I think with today's job market data, and a speech by the [Fed] vice chairman, I think the market is now no longer expecting another rate hike," Phelan told Yahoo Finance in an interview Friday. </p> <p class="text text-block paragraph text-left neo-font-paragraph-xl-reg yf-18d6y07" style="text-decoration: none; font-style: normal; text-transform: none; text-align: inherit; font-variant-numeric: normal;">The economy added 29,000 jobs in September, falling short of expectations of 88,000, and down from a revised 133,000 for August. Monthly job growth has averaged 65,000 so far this year. According to Phelan's calculations, the economy needs to add only about 40,000 jobs per month to keep the unemployment rate at its current level. </p> <p class="text text-block paragraph text-left neo-font-paragraph-xl-reg yf-18d6y07" style="text-decoration: none; font-style: normal; text-transform: none; text-align: inherit; font-variant-numeric: normal;">Phelan argued that the central bank's <a href="https://finance.yahoo.com/economy/policy/article/fed-raises-interest-rates-by-a-quarter-point-in-unanimous-decision-marking-first-hike-in-3-years-171212149.html" data-ylk="slk:decision%20to%20raise%20rates%20last%20month;elm:context_link;itc:0;sec:content-canvas;cpos:3;pos:1;_E:mb_qualified_link;ct:story;outcm:mb_qualified_link;source:content-canvas%20default" data-yga="{"yLinkText":"decision to raise rates last month","yLinkElement":"context_link","yModuleName":"content-canvas","yLinkPosition":"3","yPosition":"1","yContentType":"story","yTrafficOrigin":"content-canvas default"}" target="_blank" class="link">decision to raise rates last month</a> was a "mistake" because inflation is already coming down. </p> <p class="text text-block paragraph text-left neo-font-paragraph-xl-reg yf-18d6y07" style="text-decoration: none; font-style: normal; text-transform: none; text-align: inherit; font-variant-numeric: normal;">"I said right before they raised rates that it would be a mistake to raise rates. I said right after they raised rates that it was a mistake to raise rates," Phelan said. "My view was simply keep your eye on the ball — which Chairman Warsh in his Jackson Hole speech said, 'What is the ball?' The ball is inflation." </p> <div class="wrapper yf-2smqn1" data-testid="inarticle-ad"> <div id="sda-INARTICLE-57abc9ad-59de-43ed-831a-02b5dd31a336-2" class="sdaContainer dv-all sda-INARTICLE-57abc9ad-59de-43ed-831a-02b5dd31a336-2 yf-d5hqm1 overflow margin visible placeholder" data-testid="ad-container" data-ad-unit="/22888152279/us/yfin/ros/dt/us_yfin_ros_dt_mid_center" data-ad-size="970x250,728x90,970x90,300x250" data-ad-region="main-dynamic" data-ad-loc="mid_center_2" style="--placeholder-height: 250px;"> </div></div> <p class="text text-block paragraph text-left neo-font-paragraph-xl-reg yf-18d6y07" style="text-decoration: none; font-style: normal; text-transform: none; text-align: inherit; font-variant-numeric: normal;"><em>Read more: </em><a href="https://finance.yahoo.com/personal-finance/investing/article/how-does-the-labor-market-affect-inflation-205628202.html" data-ylk="slk:How%20jobs%2C%20inflation%2C%20and%20the%20Fed%20are%20all%20related;elm:context_link;itc:0;sec:content-canvas;cpos:4;pos:1;_E:mb_qualified_link;ct:story;outcm:mb_qualified_link;source:content-canvas%20default" data-yga="{"yLinkText":"How jobs, inflation, and the Fed are all related","yLinkElement":"context_link","yModuleName":"content-canvas","yLinkPosition":"4","yPosition":"1","yContentType":"story","yTrafficOrigin":"content-canvas default"}" target="_blank" class="link"><em>How jobs, inflation, and the Fed are all related</em></a> </p> <p class="text text-block paragraph text-left neo-font-paragraph-xl-reg yf-18d6y07" style="text-decoration: none; font-style: normal; text-transform: none; text-align: inherit; font-variant-numeric: normal;">Phelan pointed to the Fed's preferred measure of inflation, the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index, which <a href="https://finance.yahoo.com/economy/policy/article/pce-inflation-eases-to-34--cooling-the-case-for-another-fed-rate-hike-125513195.html" data-ylk="slk:cooled%20to%203.4%25%20in%20August;elm:context_link;itc:0;sec:content-canvas;cpos:5;pos:1;_E:mb_qualified_link;ct:story;outcm:mb_qualified_link;source:content-canvas%20default" data-yga="{"yLinkText":"cooled to 3.4% in August","yLinkElement":"context_link","yModuleName":"content-canvas","yLinkPosition":"5","yPosition":"1","yContentType":"story","yTrafficOrigin":"content-canvas default"}" target="_blank" class="link">cooled to 3.4% in August</a>, down from 3.7% from the previous two months. Excluding volatile energy and food prices, "core" PCE rose 3%, marking a drop from 3.3% in July. </p> <p class="text text-block paragraph text-left neo-font-paragraph-xl-reg yf-18d6y07" style="text-decoration: none; font-style: normal; text-transform: none; text-align: inherit; font-variant-numeric: normal;">Phelan noted that looking at a three-month annualized average of core PCE, the measure stands at 2%. </p> <p class="text text-block paragraph text-left neo-font-paragraph-xl-reg yf-18d6y07" style="text-decoration: none; font-style: normal; text-transform: none; text-align: inherit; font-variant-numeric: normal;">"So we are already making progress on inflation," he said. "It's coming down before they took any action." </p> <p class="text text-block paragraph text-left neo-font-paragraph-xl-reg yf-18d6y07" style="text-decoration: none; font-style: normal; text-transform: none; text-align: inherit; font-variant-numeric: normal;">While some Fed officials continue to <a href="https://finance.yahoo.com/economy/policy/article/chorus-of-fed-officials-warn-inflation-is-still-too-high-signaling-more-work-to-do-on-interest-rates-151947919.html" data-ylk="slk:make%20a%20case%20for%20additional%20tightening;elm:context_link;itc:0;sec:content-canvas;cpos:6;pos:1;_E:mb_qualified_link;ct:story;outcm:mb_qualified_link;source:content-canvas%20default" data-yga="{"yLinkText":"make a case for additional tightening","yLinkElement":"context_link","yModuleName":"content-canvas","yLinkPosition":"6","yPosition":"1","yContentType":"story","yTrafficOrigin":"content-canvas default"}" target="_blank" class="link">make a case for additional tightening</a>, Fed Vice Chair Philip Jefferson and New York Fed president John Williams struck a more dovish note. Both noted that inflation remains too high but that the central bank should take time to monitor and assess whether inflation will decline in a timely manner. </p> <p class="text text-block paragraph text-left neo-font-paragraph-xl-reg yf-18d6y07" style="text-decoration: none; font-style: normal; text-transform: none; text-align: inherit; font-variant-numeric: normal;">Williams said that, after raising rates in September, he sees "no need for urgency" and that "we have time to gather more information." </p> <div class="wrapper yf-2smqn1" data-testid="inarticle-ad"> <div id="sda-INARTICLE-57abc9ad-59de-43ed-831a-02b5dd31a336-3" class="sdaContainer dv-all sda-INARTICLE-57abc9ad-59de-43ed-831a-02b5dd31a336-3 yf-d5hqm1 overflow margin visible placeholder" data-testid="ad-container" data-ad-unit="/22888152279/us/yfin/ros/dt/us_yfin_ros_dt_mid_center" data-ad-size="970x250,728x90,970x90,300x250" data-ad-region="main-dynamic" data-ad-loc="mid_center_3" style="--placeholder-height: 250px;"> </div></div> <p class="text text-block paragraph text-left neo-font-paragraph-xl-reg yf-18d6y07" style="text-decoration: none; font-style: normal; text-transform: none; text-align: inherit; font-variant-numeric: normal;">Another metric closely watched by both the White House and Fed officials: the unemployment rate. Friday's jobs report showed the unemployment rate edged up to 4.2% in September from 4.1% a month earlier. </p> </div> <div class="readmore yf-11souuj"> <button class="secondary-btn fin-size-large readmore-button rounded highlightWhenExpanded yf-7mptsx" data-ylk="elm:readmore;itc:1;sec:content-canvas;slk:Story%20Continues" data-yga="{"yLinkElement":"readmore","yModuleName":"content-canvas","yLinkText":"Story Continues"}" aria-label="Story Continues" title="Story Continues"> <span>Story Continues</span> </button> </div> <div class="read-more-wrapper" style="display: none" data-testid="read-more"> <p class="text text-block paragraph text-left neo-font-paragraph-xl-reg yf-18d6y07" style="text-decoration: none; font-style: normal; text-transform: none; text-align: inherit; font-variant-numeric: normal;">Phelan contends that a rate between those two figures would constitute a "good" job market. </p> <p class="text text-block paragraph text-left neo-font-paragraph-xl-reg yf-18d6y07" style="text-decoration: none; font-style: normal; text-transform: none; text-align: inherit; font-variant-numeric: normal;">"I think the job market's going well," he said. </p> <p class="text text-block paragraph text-left neo-font-paragraph-xl-reg yf-18d6y07" style="text-decoration: none; font-style: normal; text-transform: none; text-align: inherit; font-variant-numeric: normal;"><em>Jennifer Schonberger is a veteran financial journalist covering markets, the economy, and investing. At Yahoo Finance, she covers the Federal Reserve, Congress, the White House, the Treasury, the SEC, the economy, cryptocurrencies, and the intersection of Washington policy with finance. 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