CBO estimates the Iran war has added $38.1 billion to Defense Department costs through August 1
The estimate counts what it will take to replace the munitions fired, the extra flying hours, fuel, lost equipment, and other operations. It leaves out damaged bases, veterans' care, and other agencies. The Defense Department did not answer CBO's requests for its own numbers, and by June 30 had paid out $4.9 billion of the $7.4 billion it had committed.
$38.1 billionCBO's estimate of the added Defense Department cost through August 1
$2 to $3 billioneach further month, quiet or as intense as July
0.5 pointsadded to inflation by early 2027, against CBO's February forecast
$21.7 billionto replace the munitions fired
Story updated 2026-09-18.
This story rests on CBO letter 62756 of September 15, 2026, to Rep. Brendan Boyle; Boyle's March 5 request letter and his March 5, June 24, and September 15 statements; the White House's March 12 Operation Epic Fury release; OMB Director Russell Vought's June 24 supplemental request; the Lead Inspector General report on Operation Epic Fury covering April 1 to June 30, 2026; the Congressional Research Service report on the War Powers Resolution; and coverage checked against those records. CBO's site does not let its pages be saved by an ordinary fetch. The letter PDF and the publication page used here are Wayback Machine snapshots from September 17 and September 16. The Washington Post's September 18 report on the Central Command estimate served only a subscription stub; the Associated Press dispatch on the same document is the record used.
Operation Epic Fury follows CBO's use for the whole conflict, and Department of War appears as Defense Department outside direct quotations.
The letter, and what the $38.1 billion counts
What happened
On September 15, 2026, CBO Director Phillip Swagel signed a letter to Rep. Brendan Boyle, the top Democrat on the House Budget Committee, titled "Estimating the Cost of Combat Operations Against Iran." Boyle had asked for it on March 5, 194 days earlier and five days after U.S. forces began striking Iran at 1:15 am Eastern on February 28. The answer is $38.1 billion through August 1. That is CBO's estimate of the costs the fighting added on top of what the Defense Department would have spent anyway: mostly the price of replacing munitions already fired, plus flying hours above peacetime, fuel, lost equipment, and other operations. It is not a count of money paid out. The department's inspector general counts $7.4 billion committed to the operation by June 30 and $4.9 billion of that paid out.15124
On September 15, 2026, CBO Director Phillip Swagel signed a letter to Rep. Brendan Boyle, the top Democrat on the House Budget Committee, titled "Estimating the Cost of Combat Operations Against Iran." Boyle had asked for it on March 5, 194 days earlier and five days after U.S. forces began striking Iran at 1:15 am Eastern on February 28. The answer is $38.1 billion through August 1. That is CBO's estimate of the costs the fighting added on top of what the Defense Department would have spent anyway: mostly the price of replacing munitions already fired, plus flying hours above peacetime, fuel, lost equipment, and other operations. It is not a count of money paid out. The department's inspector general counts $7.4 billion committed to the operation by June 30 and $4.9 billion of that paid out.15124
1CBO letter 62756, September 15, 2026Estimating the Cost of Combat Operations Against IranComparing CBO’s estimate ($38.1 billion) withCBO focused on the incremental costs of the conflict for
CBO built the figure from government databases and public reports because, it says twice, the Defense Department did not respond to its requests for information, which leaves the estimates "subject to considerable uncertainty." On September 18 the Associated Press reported U.S. Central Command's own count, a one-page breakdown to lawmakers: $43.6 billion as of September 3. The letter calls the whole conflict Operation Epic Fury, a name the department used for the first phase, from February 28 to the April 8 ceasefire, and later dropped.1431
CBO built the figure from government databases and public reports because, it says twice, the Defense Department did not respond to its requests for information, which leaves the estimates "subject to considerable uncertainty." On September 18 the Associated Press reported U.S. Central Command's own count, a one-page breakdown to lawmakers: $43.6 billion as of September 3. The letter calls the whole conflict Operation Epic Fury, a name the department used for the first phase, from February 28 to the April 8 ceasefire, and later dropped.1431
The letter also measures what the war used up. Comparing reported interceptor firings with what the department has bought, CBO says the United States "has probably used between one-half and two-thirds of its inventory" of missile-defense interceptors since June 2025, and that rebuilding it would probably take at least five years even with more production.1 The shortfall, CBO writes, would become especially problematic against an opponent with many ballistic and cruise missiles, and CBO names China as maintaining such an arsenal, which would probably play a major role in a fight over Taiwan.1
The letter also measures what the war used up. Comparing reported interceptor firings with what the department has bought, CBO says the United States "has probably used between one-half and two-thirds of its inventory" of missile-defense interceptors since June 2025, and that rebuilding it would probably take at least five years even with more production.1
The shortfall, CBO writes, would become especially problematic against an opponent with many ballistic and cruise missiles, and CBO names China as maintaining such an arsenal, which would probably play a major role in a fight over Taiwan.1
1CBO letter 62756, September 15, 2026between one-half and two-thirdsat least five yearsespecially problematicrole in a military conflict involving Taiwan
Munitions are the largest piece: $21.7 billion, 57 percent of the total. Of that, $13.1 billion is missile-defense interceptors (Patriot, THAAD, SM-3, and SM-6), $7.3 billion is land-attack cruise missiles (Tomahawks and JASSM), and $1.2 billion is other munitions; CBO names the Center for Strategic and International Studies as its most detailed public source for those counts. Extra flying hours are $10.4 billion, fuel $2.7 billion, equipment lost in battle $1.9 billion, and other operations, including hostile fire pay and combat-zone tax exclusions, $1.5 billion. CBO could not put a number on repairing damaged bases. Behind the bill is the size of the force: about 250 tactical aircraft, 2 aircraft-carrier strike groups, and an amphibious ready group took part in the first phase, backed by bombers, airlifters, tankers, more Navy ships, and Army air-defense, aviation, and artillery units, which CBO calls smaller and briefer than Desert Storm or Iraqi Freedom and larger than most limited air campaigns since the 1999 campaign against Yugoslavia.1
Munitions are the largest piece: $21.7 billion, 57 percent of the total. Of that, $13.1 billion is missile-defense interceptors (Patriot, THAAD, SM-3, and SM-6), $7.3 billion is land-attack cruise missiles (Tomahawks and JASSM), and $1.2 billion is other munitions; CBO names the Center for Strategic and International Studies as its most detailed public source for those counts. Extra flying hours are $10.4 billion, fuel $2.7 billion, equipment lost in battle $1.9 billion, and other operations, including hostile fire pay and combat-zone tax exclusions, $1.5 billion. CBO could not put a number on repairing damaged bases. Behind the bill is the size of the force: about 250 tactical aircraft, 2 aircraft-carrier strike groups, and an amphibious ready group took part in the first phase, backed by bombers, airlifters, tankers, more Navy ships, and Army air-defense, aviation, and artillery units, which CBO calls smaller and briefer than Desert Storm or Iraqi Freedom and larger than most limited air campaigns since the 1999 campaign against Yugoslavia.1
1CBO letter 62756, September 15, 2026$21.7 billion: $7.3 billion for the land-attack cruiseThe most detailed publicly available information was provided by the Center for Strategic andhostile fire pay, combat zoneCBO is unable to estimate the costApproximately 250 tactical aircraftthan most limited air campaigns conducted since Operation Allied Force
What CBO counts in the $38.1 billionBillions of dollars through August 1. Base repairs are not estimated.
Munitions alone outweigh the other four lines together.1
CBO letter 62756, Table 1, recovered from an Internet Archive copy of the PDF saved September 17, 2026. The five printed lines add to 38.2 before CBO's rounding note.
If the fighting stays as quiet as May and June, CBO says a further month costs $2 billion. A month like July costs $3 billion, and more if the violence escalates.1
If the fighting stays as quiet as May and June, CBO says a further month costs $2 billion. A month like July costs $3 billion, and more if the violence escalates.1
Boyle had asked four things: the department's operating and supply costs; other costs such as diplomacy and foreign aid; what the war crowds out, including moving an aircraft carrier away from Taiwan; and the effect on prices. CBO answered each separately and warned that the four are "not directly comparable or summable." His March 5 letter also said the war began without first notifying Congress or seeking authorization under the Constitution or the War Powers Act.313
Boyle had asked four things: the department's operating and supply costs; other costs such as diplomacy and foreign aid; what the war crowds out, including moving an aircraft carrier away from Taiwan; and the effect on prices. CBO answered each separately and warned that the four are "not directly comparable or summable." His March 5 letter also said the war began without first notifying Congress or seeking authorization under the Constitution or the War Powers Act.313
3Boyle letter to CBO, March 5, 2026The operational, logistical, and sustainment costs of the war in Iranwithout first notifying Congress or seeking authorization under the Constitution or the War Powers Act
this nonpartisan CBO report makes clear that the war has also cost American taxpayers tens of billions of dollars and counting, while continuing to drive up costs21
$38.1 billion is the added cost through August 1, estimated without the department's answers, with the base repairs still uncounted.1
$38.1 billion is the added cost through August 1, estimated without the department's answers, with the base repairs still uncounted.1
1CBO letter 62756, September 15, 2026as of August 1, 2026, the armed conflict with Iran has cost DoDDoD did not respond to CBO’s requests for informationCBO is unable to estimate the cost
Table 1 categories, billions of dollars through August 1: munitions 21.7, equipment 1.9, flying hours 10.4, other operations 1.5, fuel 2.7, bases not available, total 38.1. CBO notes that numbers may not add to the total because of rounding.1
The Defense Department gave the name Operation Epic Fury to the first phase of the conflict, February 28 to the April 8 ceasefire, kept using it for a time after the ceasefire, and then stopped. CBO's footnote says, "To minimize confusion, this letter refers to the entire conflict as Operation Epic Fury." The United States has enforced a blockade of Iranian commercial shipping. CBO dates the president's declaration that the ceasefire was over to July 10, after Iranian attacks on tankers. The inspector general writes that on July 8 the president declared the MoU over. The two records do not explain the gap.124
1CBO letter 62756, September 15, 2026Operation Epic Fury is the name that the Department of Defense gave to the initial, intense phasethis letter refers to the entire conflict as Operation Epic Furyhas enforced a blockade of Iranian commercial shippingthe President declared that the ceasefire was over
The White House's March 12 release stated the campaign's aims as obliterating Iran's ballistic missile arsenal and production capacity, annihilating its navy, severing support for terrorist proxies, and ensuring Iran never acquires a nuclear weapon.23
From the first strikes to the Central Command countDated steps from Central Command, Boyle's letter, the White House request, the House and Senate, CBO, the inspector general, and AP.
DateDecision
Feb 28U.S. strikes on Iran begin Central Command: strikes at 1:15 am ET
Mar 5Boyle asks CBO for a cost estimate Operating costs, other costs, what the war crowds out, prices
Apr 8A ceasefire begins CBO: the first intense phase lasted just over a month
Jun 3House votes to end U.S. involvement 215 to 208
Jun 23Senate agrees 50 to 48
Jun 24White House asks Congress for $87.6 billion $67.1 billion of it for the Defense Department
Jul 8 / 10The president declares the ceasefire over Inspector general: July 8. CBO: July 10.
Jul 21Hegseth tells senators the war has cost $37.5 billion Senate Appropriations Committee
Jul 22House passes a $95 billion budget resolution 216 to 214
Jul 23House votes again to end U.S. involvement 214 to 208
Aug 1CBO's cost cutoff Estimate $38.1 billion
Sep 14Inspector general report is posted Quotes a $33.4 billion department estimate as of June 29
Sep 15CBO's letter to Boyle Nineteen pages, three tables
Sep 15House votes again to end U.S. involvement 220 to 204
Sep 18AP reports Central Command's $43.6 billion As of September 3, in a one-page breakdown to lawmakers
CBO's cutoff is August 1, 154 days after February 28. Central Command's cutoff, September 3, is 33 days later still.143
The same war, six published totalsBillions of dollars. Each row is a different date and a different list of what counts.
Whose figure, and through when
Amount
What it counts
Defense Department estimate quoted by its inspector general, as of June 29
$33.4 billion
Money committed, munitions fired, equipment lost; no base repairs
Hegseth to the Senate Appropriations Committee, July 21
$37.5 billion
The war as of that day plus what he expected through September 30
CBO letter, through August 1
$38.1 billion
Added Defense Department cost: munitions, flying hours, fuel, equipment, other operations
Central Command to Congress, as of September 3
$43.6 billion
Munitions, ships, planes, bases in use, equipment losses, medical support; no base repairs
June 24 request, the part CBO ties to the fighting
$42.3 billion
What the White House asked Congress for, in the categories that match the war
June 24 request, all agencies
$87.6 billion
The whole request, including farm aid, State, and other accounts
Hegseth's $37.5 billion looks through September 30, after Central Command's September 3 count, so the published totals do not rise with their cutoff dates. CBO, the inspector general, and Central Command leave base damage out of their totals. CBO's $1.9 billion for equipment lost in battle counts only the losses that would change the department's replacement plans; if the department sought extra appropriations for all its battle losses, CBO says the total could be $3.3 billion instead of $1.9 billion.143241431
1CBO letter 62756, September 15, 2026through September 2026 would beCBO is unable to estimate the costcould increase to $3.3 billion instead of the $1.9 billion
None of this money was set aside for the war. The inspector general writes that Congress did not appropriate funds specifically for the operation in fiscal 2026 and that the department's components paid for it from base-budget funds that would otherwise have gone to planned training and maintenance. On July 22 the House passed, 216 to 214, the budget resolution for fiscal 2027, which the House Budget Committee chairman presented as advancing reconciliation, a budget procedure, to support the troops. The resolution tells four committees to submit changes in law that would raise the deficit by as much as $60 billion at Armed Services, $13 billion at Intelligence, $12 billion at Agriculture, and $10 billion at House Administration, $95 billion in all. Those instructions are a budget blueprint, separate from the administration's $87.6 billion request.2427124
None of this money was set aside for the war. The inspector general writes that Congress did not appropriate funds specifically for the operation in fiscal 2026 and that the department's components paid for it from base-budget funds that would otherwise have gone to planned training and maintenance. On July 22 the House passed, 216 to 214, the budget resolution for fiscal 2027, which the House Budget Committee chairman presented as advancing reconciliation, a budget procedure, to support the troops. The resolution tells four committees to submit changes in law that would raise the deficit by as much as $60 billion at Armed Services, $13 billion at Intelligence, $12 billion at Agriculture, and $10 billion at House Administration, $95 billion in all. Those instructions are a budget blueprint, separate from the administration's $87.6 billion request.2427124
OMB Director Russell T. Vought wrote Speaker Mike Johnson on June 24 transmitting "a request for $87.6 billion in supplemental funding," most of it for Operation Epic Fury plus other needs including Ebola response and support for farmers. The enclosed table assigns $67.1 billion to the entity it calls the Department of War.4
Prices at home, the stockpile, and the people in the fight
Who feels it
CBO's price path starts with oil. Brent crude, in CBO's telling, went from $64 a barrel in the last quarter of 2025 to a peak of $103 in the second quarter of 2026, and CBO's updated path, using information through August 17, has it at $84 by the end of 2026 and $76 by the end of 2027, still 41 percent above its February forecast this year. Gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel moved first; by early 2027, CBO says, roughly 40 percent of the price change from the war is fuel and the rest is other goods and services. That is why CBO puts year-over-year inflation, measured by the PCE index, the price index for what households buy, 0.5 percentage points above its February forecast in early 2027; in the second quarter of 2026 alone, energy added 2.3 points to an annualized inflation rate of 5.3 percent. Natural gas is the exception: CBO says U.S. prices "have not increased significantly, because of domestic production."1
CBO's price path starts with oil. Brent crude, in CBO's telling, went from $64 a barrel in the last quarter of 2025 to a peak of $103 in the second quarter of 2026, and CBO's updated path, using information through August 17, has it at $84 by the end of 2026 and $76 by the end of 2027, still 41 percent above its February forecast this year. Gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel moved first; by early 2027, CBO says, roughly 40 percent of the price change from the war is fuel and the rest is other goods and services. That is why CBO puts year-over-year inflation, measured by the PCE index, the price index for what households buy, 0.5 percentage points above its February forecast in early 2027; in the second quarter of 2026 alone, energy added 2.3 points to an annualized inflation rate of 5.3 percent. Natural gas is the exception: CBO says U.S. prices "have not increased significantly, because of domestic production."1
1CBO letter 62756, September 15, 2026Brent crude prices rose from $64 a barrelroughly 40 percent of the total change0.5 percentage points higheradded 2.3 percentage pointshave not increased significantly, because of domestic production
the rest of CBO's price figures
By the first quarter of 2027 the PCE price level is 0.6 percent above the February forecast; the year-over-year rate is 0.5 points higher. Core PCE, which leaves out food and energy, is 0.3 points higher on both. Three-month Treasury bill rates are nearly 0.2 points higher in 2026. CBO says the effects on revenues and spending over 2026 to 2036 are modest and roughly offsetting, and that it did not fold in effects on real output.
Inside the department, higher fuel prices arrive through the Defense Logistics Agency, which buys fuel for it. CBO says the agency added a $42-a-barrel surcharge from April to June, $835 million more for the services, and that in June the Government Accountability Office expected the agency to lose $1.8 billion on fuel sales in fiscal 2026 even so. Those two figures together are CBO's $2.7 billion fuel line.1
Inside the department, higher fuel prices arrive through the Defense Logistics Agency, which buys fuel for it. CBO says the agency added a $42-a-barrel surcharge from April to June, $835 million more for the services, and that in June the Government Accountability Office expected the agency to lose $1.8 billion on fuel sales in fiscal 2026 even so. Those two figures together are CBO's $2.7 billion fuel line.1
CBO also prices the interceptors themselves: it puts Patriot and SM-6 interceptors at roughly $4 million each, THAAD at about $12 million, and the most capable SM-3 at $28 million, and says new orders have historically taken 3 to 5 years to deliver. That is the shortfall the letter says would become especially problematic against an opponent with many ballistic and cruise missiles, and CBO names China as maintaining such an arsenal.1
CBO also prices the interceptors themselves: it puts Patriot and SM-6 interceptors at roughly $4 million each, THAAD at about $12 million, and the most capable SM-3 at $28 million, and says new orders have historically taken 3 to 5 years to deliver. That is the shortfall the letter says would become especially problematic against an opponent with many ballistic and cruise missiles, and CBO names China as maintaining such an arsenal.1
On the ground, the inspector general counts more than 50,000 U.S. service members in the Central Command area for this operation through June 30. Its text reports 7 killed in action and 7 killed in non-hostile events from February 28 to June 30, 417 wounded in action, and 4 more killed in action in July; its table of deaths totals 18 as of August 26, 11 killed in action and 7 non-hostile, and places the seventh non-hostile death on July 1, one day past the text's window. CBO's letter assigns no dollar figure to those deaths and injuries, and says so; Boyle's March 5 statement had named "the tragic deaths of American service members." The State Department told the inspectors that damage to its embassies and facilities in Iraq, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates was about $184 million as of June 30, and that it had incurred $113 million on the conflict as of June 2, $79.2 million of it on evacuations and related contingencies. The bases those troops live on carry no official figure: CBO could not estimate repairs because the department did not provide values and host nations might pay part of any rebuild. An independent model from the Center for Strategic and International Studies puts damage to bases and fixed infrastructure at $4 billion to $9.4 billion, and veterans' costs near $12 billion over 30 years, with wide uncertainty on how many buildings were hit and what was inside them.1424120241
On the ground, the inspector general counts more than 50,000 U.S. service members in the Central Command area for this operation through June 30. Its text reports 7 killed in action and 7 killed in non-hostile events from February 28 to June 30, 417 wounded in action, and 4 more killed in action in July; its table of deaths totals 18 as of August 26, 11 killed in action and 7 non-hostile, and places the seventh non-hostile death on July 1, one day past the text's window. CBO's letter assigns no dollar figure to those deaths and injuries, and says so; Boyle's March 5 statement had named "the tragic deaths of American service members." The State Department told the inspectors that damage to its embassies and facilities in Iraq, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates was about $184 million as of June 30, and that it had incurred $113 million on the conflict as of June 2, $79.2 million of it on evacuations and related contingencies. The bases those troops live on carry no official figure: CBO could not estimate repairs because the department did not provide values and host nations might pay part of any rebuild. An independent model from the Center for Strategic and International Studies puts damage to bases and fixed infrastructure at $4 billion to $9.4 billion, and veterans' costs near $12 billion over 30 years, with wide uncertainty on how many buildings were hit and what was inside them.1424120241
14CSIS, What Did Epic Fury Cost?Damage to Bases and Fixed InfrastructureThe total cost over 30 years ($12 billion)The estimate captured three uncertainties with base damage
24Lead IG Operation Epic Fury report, April 1 to June 30More than 50,000 U.S. Service members were deployedseven U.S. Service members were killedData as of August 26, 2026approximately $184 millionincurred $113 million in costs related to the
Farmers appear only in the June request. The White House asked for $11.1 billion for Agriculture, including $10 billion of temporary economic assistance for 2026 row and specialty crops, which CBO links to higher fuel and fertilizer prices after the Strait of Hormuz closed to commercial shipping. Congress has not approved that money.4132
Farmers appear only in the June request. The White House asked for $11.1 billion for Agriculture, including $10 billion of temporary economic assistance for 2026 row and specialty crops, which CBO links to higher fuel and fertilizer prices after the Strait of Hormuz closed to commercial shipping. Congress has not approved that money.4132
Brown University's Costs of War brief of May 18 measured a different bill: what drivers paid for gasoline and diesel above a "no-war" estimate of prices, over $40 billion, more than $300 per household. Brown counts the pump, so its figures are a separate bill from CBO's Defense Department estimate. By September 7 the same measure had passed $100 billion and $750 per household.30131
Brown University's Costs of War brief of May 18 measured a different bill: what drivers paid for gasoline and diesel above a "no-war" estimate of prices, over $40 billion, more than $300 per household. Brown counts the pump, so its figures are a separate bill from CBO's Defense Department estimate. By September 7 the same measure had passed $100 billion and $750 per household.30131
Iranian civilians are counted in a separate record. On September 17 the Associated Press reported that a fact-finding mission commissioned by the U.N. Human Rights Council found "reasonable grounds" to believe the United States committed war crimes in two strikes on February 28, including one on a school in Minab. The mission, as AP reported it, says the pair of strikes killed at least 178 civilians. The report is not binding. Its statement, as AP quoted it, names the crime. The same experts, as AP reported them, found that Iran's government committed crimes against humanity against its own civilians, including murder, imprisonment, and torture.42
Iranian civilians are counted in a separate record. On September 17 the Associated Press reported that a fact-finding mission commissioned by the U.N. Human Rights Council found "reasonable grounds" to believe the United States committed war crimes in two strikes on February 28, including one on a school in Minab. The mission, as AP reported it, says the pair of strikes killed at least 178 civilians. The report is not binding. Its statement, as AP quoted it, names the crime. The same experts, as AP reported them, found that Iran's government committed crimes against humanity against its own civilians, including murder, imprisonment, and torture.42
42Associated Press, September 17reasonable groundsa pair of U.S. airstrikes that killed at least 178 civilianswhile not bindingcrimes against humanity against its own peopleincluding murder, imprisonment, torture
U.N. fact-finding mission on Iran, statement·September 17, 2026·As quoted by the Associated Press
The mission found reasonable grounds to believe the United States committed the war crime of launching indiscriminate attacks resulting in the loss of life or injury to civilians or damage to civilian objects42
42Associated Press, September 17The mission found reasonable grounds to believe the United States committed the war crime of launching indiscriminate attacks
The State Department said it does not give credibility to findings in the report, and White House spokeswoman Anna Kelly said the only party in the conflict that has committed war crimes is Iran's government.42
The State Department said it does not give credibility to findings in the report, and White House spokeswoman Anna Kelly said the only party in the conflict that has committed war crimes is Iran's government.42
42Associated Press, September 17we do not give credibility to findings in this reportThe only party in this conflict that has committed war crimes is the Iranian regime
Ten outlets on one letter and one hearing
What the coverage got right, and what it got wrong
Ten outlets checked against CBO's letter, the inspector general's report, and the Senate hearing captions. One mislabels the inspector general's figures. One mislabels Hegseth's $37.5 billion as the cost to date. Checks out means the record says what the outlet wrote; consistent means the outlet's wording fits the record without repeating its exact number or date; mislabeled means the outlet attached a number or date to the wrong thing; unconfirmed means no record settles it.
Reuters, September 15, 2026
wrote that the inspector general put the war cost "through June 19 at $33.4 billion" and that the amount "included about $184 million in damages to U.S. diplomatic facilities."
Mislabeled.
The inspector general's $33.4 billion is as of June 29, and it is the sum of $7.4 billion committed, $22.3 billion of munitions, and $3.7 billion of equipment losses; the $184 million is the State Department's separate figure for damage to its own buildings. Reuters's $3 billion a month is CBO's figure for a month as intense as July, and CBO also gives $2 billion for a quiet month. Its July 21 hearing date matches the committee's page.
wrote on July 21 that the war had cost the Defense Department "$37.5 billion to date," as Hegseth told senators.
Mislabeled. Wrong on "to date." The committee's caption track has Hegseth giving $37.5 billion as the estimate as of that day, and saying some of it is anticipated through the fiscal year, through September 30.
Checks out. Each was checked the same way: the CBO letter's total, munitions split, monthly range, and inflation sentences, and the Senate hearing page.
ABC News, September 15, 2026, wrote that the war has cost "at least $38 billion through the end of July."Consistent. CBO's cutoff is August 1, the same point in time; the summary says approximately $38 billion and the table $38.1 billion.331
NBC News, September 15, 2026, wrote that CBO "specifically blames the war for more than 40% of inflation during the second quarter of 2026."Checks out on the share. CBO printed the two inputs, 2.3 percentage points on a 5.3 percent annualized rate, and 2.3 divided by 5.3 is 43.4 percent. Senator Warren's September 15 statement used the same rounding.36126
Associated Press, September 15, 2026, wrote "more than $38 billion through Aug. 1" and "up to $3 billion a month or more depending on the intensity."Checks out. Both track CBO's table and its monthly range.32
Politico, September 15, 2026, wrote CBO's "$38.1 billion estimate" and the $21.7 / $13.1 / $7.3 / $1.2 billion munitions split.Checks out against the letter.39
CNBC, September 15, 2026, wrote "$38.1 billion through Aug. 1" and a derived "$246 million per day."Checks out. $38.1 billion over the 155 days from February 28 through August 1 is $245.8 million a day.35
CBS News, September 15, 2026, wrote "$2 billion to $3 billion per month" and "about $38 billion" from February 28 through August 1.Checks out. The headline leans on the $2 billion low end of the same range.34
The Hill, September 15, 2026, wrote "around $38 billion as of Aug. 1" for CBO and, separately, that defense officials told Congress on August 13 the cost was "over $42 billion."The CBO figure checks out. The August 13 figure is The Hill citing a congressional aide about a closed briefing, and no other record here carries it.37
Stars and Stripes, July 21, 2026, wrote that Hegseth's $37.5 billion was "based on where the conflict is today and projecting costs until the end of the fiscal year on Sept. 30."Consistent with CBO's letter, which puts the figure through September 2026.461
Associated Press, September 18, September 18, 2026, reported Central Command's "$43.6 billion as of Sept. 3" and munitions of $28.1 billion from a one-page breakdown to Congress.AP says Bloomberg and Punchbowl News reported the document earlier.43
Reuters quoted the Defense Department's chief spokesman, Sean Parnell, disputing the letter's munitions findings: "We have everything required to strike at the time and place of the president’s choosing."40
Reuters quoted the Defense Department's chief spokesman, Sean Parnell, disputing the letter's munitions findings: "We have everything required to strike at the time and place of the president’s choosing."40
40Reuters, September 15We have everything required to strike at the time and place of the president’s choosing
how the shares and day counts were computed
Munitions share: 21.7 / 38.1 = 57 percent. Energy share of second-quarter PCE inflation, used only to check NBC: 2.3 / 5.3 = 43.4 percent. Days from February 28 to August 1: 154 elapsed days; inclusive count 155; 38.1 billion / 155 = $245.8 million a day. Days from August 1 to September 3: 33. Table 1 printed parts 21.7 + 1.9 + 10.4 + 1.5 + 2.7 = 38.2, against a printed total of 38.1. Direct-request minus CBO: 42.3 - 38.1 = 4.2. CBO minus inspector general: 38.1 - 33.4 = 4.7. Central Command minus CBO: 43.6 - 38.1 = 5.5; munitions 28.1 - 21.7 = 6.4. Inspector general total: 7.4 + 22.3 + 3.7 = 33.4. Fuel: 835 + 1822 million = 2.7 billion after rounding.
The money, the votes, and a larger count
What happened next
AP reported on September 15 that Congress has not approved the June request. ABC quoted Senate Majority Leader John Thune that day saying the funding push would "probably be a post-election push."3233
AP reported on September 15 that Congress has not approved the June request. ABC quoted Senate Majority Leader John Thune that day saying the funding push would "probably be a post-election push."3233
Congress has also voted on the war itself. On June 3 the House passed, 215 to 208, a concurrent resolution directing the president to remove U.S. forces from hostilities with Iran; a concurrent resolution is a measure both chambers adopt that is not sent to the president to sign or veto. The Senate agreed on June 23, 50 to 48. On July 23 the House passed another, 214 to 208. On September 15, the day of CBO's letter, the House passed a third, 220 to 204.7108169
Congress has also voted on the war itself. On June 3 the House passed, 215 to 208, a concurrent resolution directing the president to remove U.S. forces from hostilities with Iran; a concurrent resolution is a measure both chambers adopt that is not sent to the president to sign or veto. The Senate agreed on June 23, 50 to 48. On July 23 the House passed another, 214 to 208. On September 15, the day of CBO's letter, the House passed a third, 220 to 204.7108169
Whether those votes can force a withdrawal is disputed. The War Powers Resolution says the president must remove forces when Congress so directs by concurrent resolution. The Congressional Research Service writes that the Supreme Court's 1983 decision in INS v. Chadha struck down a one-House legislative veto, that the decision cast doubt on veto devices not presented to the president, and that the Court later affirmed a ruling striking down a concurrent-resolution disapproval in another statute. CRS then says that War Powers provision "is constitutionally suspect under the reasoning applied by the Court." Congress later added a route through a joint resolution, which does go to the president. The votes record majorities of both chambers opposed to the hostilities; their legal force as a mechanism compelling withdrawal is disputed.10
Whether those votes can force a withdrawal is disputed. The War Powers Resolution says the president must remove forces when Congress so directs by concurrent resolution. The Congressional Research Service writes that the Supreme Court's 1983 decision in INS v. Chadha struck down a one-House legislative veto, that the decision cast doubt on veto devices not presented to the president, and that the Court later affirmed a ruling striking down a concurrent-resolution disapproval in another statute. CRS then says that War Powers provision "is constitutionally suspect under the reasoning applied by the Court." Congress later added a route through a joint resolution, which does go to the president. The votes record majorities of both chambers opposed to the hostilities; their legal force as a mechanism compelling withdrawal is disputed.10
10CRS report R42699, The War Powers Resolution: Concepts and PracticeSection 5(c) requires forces to be removed by the President if Congress so directs by a concurrent resolutionruled unconstitutional the legislative veto provisioncast doubt on the validity of any legislative veto devicedisapprove by concurrent (two-House) resolutionis constitutionally suspect under the reasoning applied by the Courtsubstituting a joint resolution, which requires presentment to the President
On September 16 the Senate Democrats' wrap-up said that no later than Friday, October 2, the Senate would take a concurrent resolution numbered H.Con.Res. 89 out of the Foreign Relations Committee and vote on it. The House text of that resolution directs the president to remove U.S. forces from hostilities against Iran.2815
On September 16 the Senate Democrats' wrap-up said that no later than Friday, October 2, the Senate would take a concurrent resolution numbered H.Con.Res. 89 out of the Foreign Relations Committee and vote on it. The House text of that resolution directs the president to remove U.S. forces from hostilities against Iran.2815
On September 18 the Associated Press reported Central Command's estimate: $43.6 billion as of September 3, in a one-page breakdown to Congress that covers warships, planes, bases, equipment losses, and medical support for troops, with munitions at $28.1 billion and damage to bases still left out. The same report says Democratic senators wrote to Hegseth demanding a full accounting of the war's costs. CBO's $38.1 billion and Central Command's $43.6 billion have cutoffs 33 days apart and count different lists of costs.43
On September 18 the Associated Press reported Central Command's estimate: $43.6 billion as of September 3, in a one-page breakdown to Congress that covers warships, planes, bases, equipment losses, and medical support for troops, with munitions at $28.1 billion and damage to bases still left out. The same report says Democratic senators wrote to Hegseth demanding a full accounting of the war's costs. CBO's $38.1 billion and Central Command's $43.6 billion have cutoffs 33 days apart and count different lists of costs.43
That same day CNN, citing two sources familiar with the matter, reported that the Pentagon told Congress the war had cost $45.1 billion, the $43.6 billion as of September 3 plus $1.5 billion in extra fuel. CNN writes that the estimate is not a full accounting of the war's cost.47
That same day CNN, citing two sources familiar with the matter, reported that the Pentagon told Congress the war had cost $45.1 billion, the $43.6 billion as of September 3 plus $1.5 billion in extra fuel. CNN writes that the estimate is not a full accounting of the war's cost.47
Watching: whether the Senate votes on H.Con.Res. 89 by October 2; whether Congress takes up the June request after November 3; whether CBO updates its estimate past August 1; whether the Defense Department answers the next information request; the inspector general's next quarterly report; and whether the department reconciles its public death count with the Washington Post's.2845
Watching: whether the Senate votes on H.Con.Res. 89 by October 2; whether Congress takes up the June request after November 3; whether CBO updates its estimate past August 1; whether the Defense Department answers the next information request; the inspector general's next quarterly report; and whether the department reconciles its public death count with the Washington Post's.2845
The cost of repairing or rebuilding U.S. bases. CBO says it cannot estimate that cost because the department did not provide values and host nations might pay part of a rebuild. The inspector general and Central Command likewise leave base damage out of their totals.12443
The cost of repairing or rebuilding U.S. bases. CBO says it cannot estimate that cost because the department did not provide values and host nations might pay part of a rebuild. The inspector general and Central Command likewise leave base damage out of their totals.12443
Diplomatic operations and foreign aid, which Boyle asked about. CBO "was unable to estimate" those costs. The State Department's $113 million through June 2 in the inspector general's report is that department's own figure for that period, not CBO's missing category filled in.124
Diplomatic operations and foreign aid, which Boyle asked about. CBO "was unable to estimate" those costs. The State Department's $113 million through June 2 in the inspector general's report is that department's own figure for that period, not CBO's missing category filled in.124
A ground-force scenario. Boyle asked CBO to consider the war lasting longer than four to five weeks and deploying U.S. troops on the ground. The September 15 letter does not publish a separate ground-deployment cost case.3
A ground-force scenario. Boyle asked CBO to consider the war lasting longer than four to five weeks and deploying U.S. troops on the ground. The September 15 letter does not publish a separate ground-deployment cost case.3
The August 13 briefing at which, The Hill reported from a congressional aide, defense officials put the cost at more than $42 billion. No public table from that briefing is in the records, and CBO's $42.3 billion is a reading of the June request, not that briefing.381
The August 13 briefing at which, The Hill reported from a congressional aide, defense officials put the cost at more than $42 billion. No public table from that briefing is in the records, and CBO's $42.3 billion is a reading of the June request, not that briefing.381
The records do not establish whether Central Command's September 3 breakdown updates the August 13 count.
How many service members have died. The inspector general's table counts 18 as of August 26, and AP's September 18 report gives the same 18 from the Defense Department's casualty system. The Washington Post reported on September 18, citing five unidentified officials, at least 22 military fatalities, 4 more than the Pentagon's public database, and citing another unidentified official that not all of the undisclosed deaths were directly tied to the conflict. Hegseth called the report "a complete LIE."244345
How many service members have died. The inspector general's table counts 18 as of August 26, and AP's September 18 report gives the same 18 from the Defense Department's casualty system. The Washington Post reported on September 18, citing five unidentified officials, at least 22 military fatalities, 4 more than the Pentagon's public database, and citing another unidentified official that not all of the undisclosed deaths were directly tied to the conflict. Hegseth called the report "a complete LIE."244345
The main record is CBO's letter. Boyle's request, the White House campaign release, the June 24 request letter, the inspector general's report, the House and Senate vote records, the Senate hearing page, and the Congressional Research Service report on the War Powers Resolution sit with it; the coverage was read against those documents.1
Story updated 2026-09-18.
Sources
The records
Everything this page rests on, numbered where the story cites it. We keep a dated copy of each one.
14CSIS, What Did Epic Fury Cost? · Center for Strategic and International Studies · modeled $4.0 billion to $9.4 billion for bases and about $12 billion over 30 years for veterans
39Politico, September 15 · published September 15, 2026 · Checked; $38.1 billion and munitions split match the letter
40Reuters, September 15 · published September 15, 2026 · Checked; $3 billion a month is mislabeled; July 21 date checks out; June 19 and $184 million do not match the inspector general
41Military Times, July 21 · published July 21, 2026 · Hegseth $37.5 billion as to-date at a Senate Appropriations hearing
42Associated Press, September 17 · published September 17, 2026 · U.N. fact-finding mission on Iranian civilians and the U.S. response
43Associated Press, September 18, on the Central Command estimate · published September 18, 2026, carried by U.S. News · the $43.6 billion as of September 3, the $28.1 billion munitions line, base damage excluded, the senators' letter, and the 18 dead in the casualty system