The War May Be Ending. What Did Epic Fury Cost?

… <p>Table 4 shows a high and low to capture the different approaches to calculating replacement costs. The high-end cost is a one-for-one replacement with the most comparable aircraft currently in production. Thus, an F-15EX would replace a lost F-15E and an F-35A would replace a lost A-10. The low-end cost excludes aircraft such as the A-10 and E-3 that are planned for retirement. The theory here is that replacements are already in the budget. The cost to repair damaged aircraft is assumed to be 25 to 75 percent of the replacement cost, captured in the range of the estimate.</p><p><strong>Damage to Bases and Fixed Infrastructure: $4.0–$9.4 billion.</strong> Throughout the conflict, Iran has attacked U.S. bases with missiles and drones. The coalition <a href="https://www.csis.org/analysis/assessing-air-campaign-after-three-weeks-iran-war-numbers">intercepted</a> up to 90 percent of those attackers. However, 10 percent leakage still caused much damage when attackers numbered in the thousands. Despite this, there is little evidence that Iranian attacks materially restricted U.S. operations during this campaign.</p><p>The <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JRnoi3repjo"><em>New York Times</em></a>, <a href="https://www.wsj.com/video/series/on-the-news/satellite-images-reveal-key-details-about-irans-attack-on-us-radar-plane/650B9A37-02BA-4753-9E75-E7DEE0B309B9"><em>Wall Street Journal</em></a>, and <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/investigations/2026/05/06/iran-us-bases-satellite-images/"><em>Washington Post</em></a> have all analyzed satellite imagery showing the damage. CSIS has its own set of overhead photographs and made damage estimates from those. CSIS analysis produced a range of $2.2–$5.1 billion for the 122 structures examined—and $4–$9.4 billion, accounting for the greater number of buildings damage identified by the <em>Washington Post</em>. The actual cost to repair all damages will be greater, as <a href="https://www.wsj.com/livecoverage/iran-war-news-2026/card/u-s-seeks-to-limit-access-to-iran-satellite-imagery-company-says-7LWYNUOEyVa8oQCb9214">restricted access</a> to satellite imagery limits analysis using available open-source information.</p><p>The images make clear the Iranian strikes were precise. There are no random craters indicating misses or wasted assets. Most struck facilities were unusable afterward. Iran has had decades to prepare its target lists. It likely developed most of its own targeting information, using its proximity to the targets and its many agents on the ground. However, it may have received intelligence help from <a href="https://www.wsj.com/world/russia-is-sharing-satellite-imagery-and-drone-technology-with-iran-0dd95e49">Russia</a> or <a href="https://www.economist.com/china/2026/04/19/how-chinese-satellites-have-boosted-irans-war-effort">China</a> in identifying mobile or fleeting targets.</p><p>Iran attacked not just warfighting facilities but barracks, gyms, and dining facilities, indicating an intent to cause U.S. casualties. This was largely unsuccessful because the United States had <a href="https://www.npr.org/2026/04/03/nx-s1-5770491/evacuation-bahrain-norfolk-troops">evacuated</a> many personnel and put others under cover.</p> …