Summary of Economic Projections, June 17, 2026

… Note: Projections of change in real gross domestic product (GDP) and projections for both measures of inflation are percent changes from the fourth quarter of the previous year to the fourth quarter of the year indicated. PCE inflation and core PCE inflation are the percentage rates of change in, respectively, the price index for personal consumption expenditures (PCE) and the price index for PCE excluding food and energy. Projections for the unemployment rate are for the average civilian unemployment rate in the fourth quarter of the year indicated. Each participant's projections are based on his or her assessment of appropriate monetary policy. Longer-run projections represent each participant's assessment of the rate to which each variable would be expected to converge under appropriate monetary policy and in the absence of further shocks to the economy. The projections for the federal funds rate are the value of the midpoint of the projected appropriate target range for the federal funds rate or the projected appropriate target level for the federal funds rate at the end of the specified calendar year or over the longer run. The March projections were made in conjunction with the meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee on March 17–18, 2026. Nineteen participants submitted information in conjunction with the March 17–18, 2026, meeting. Eighteen participants submitted information in conjunction with the June 16–17, 2026, meeting; one of these 18 participants did not submit projections for 2028. 1. For each period, the median is the middle projection when the projections are arranged from lowest to highest. When the number of projections is even, the median is the average of the two middle projections. Return to table 2. The central tendency excludes the three highest and three lowest projections for each variable in each year. Return to table 3. The range for a variable in a given year includes all participants' projections, from lowest to highest, for that variable in that year. …